 鲜花( 65)  鸡蛋( 0)
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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.: d; Q" k8 K8 C3 s+ z& d
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.& }5 t- N" K1 S9 m0 E9 D" f6 N c
! | B- C8 w- [" y: y9 b3 r$ h5 L# MBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."& F, [' ?; r; w% ~
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.9 q/ K4 c5 X6 N E4 |1 _7 ^
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. # ^6 m2 ?7 w r' t2 F7 u& {
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run./ R9 t1 u5 s# m% z% o: D( D
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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