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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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! G% M" {1 B x& a7 h% T$ oBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.1 i5 k/ Q! n% E! f# z2 T
. G1 L4 k! g8 v/ ?- T$ hSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.( v7 p3 _6 Z5 @ v! e; q
( J4 b" s; y8 a4 QBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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$ j, }5 j3 v+ @* x- B2 `( k0 P. ]" CHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says., ^0 \7 G" J& n2 j
1 \/ [* w' O1 J' l% _If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.: e) B* _ \9 O; l9 @" N
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. 6 q6 p' b8 d9 G' Z$ N, k
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.
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