石油工人看石油经济

flagship

这是迄今为止看到的对爱城房地产市场最有意义的贴子.
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好贴不能沉, 顶

vista

看楼主的这个帖子，感到观点理智

cheerleader

从自己从事的油田钻井服务行业看整个经济，虽然可能有些不足，但窥一斑而见全貌，是各位同胞考虑购房的参考。
/ R" m  y$ d8 I+ L& _, }其实，从经济发展总体来看，石油行业本身就是一个周期性行业。当年90年老布什打海湾战争，油价一样摸高到80左右，随着时间的推移，在98年左右跌落到10美圆附近。2000年小布什同志来了，借口911和大规模武器，在中东东搞西搞，对冲基金们也领了圣旨一样的推波助澜，现在奔100了。其实，在中东那嘎，石油成本低到1、2美元一桶的，插根管子就数钱。也许真像楼主所说，10年一个轮回？不过不同的是老布什干了一届才4年，小的混了8年，所以按此瞎猜，此轮回也许要延长5年左右，也就是10－15年。明年，小布什铁定走人了，换谁不知道，换人了，撤军吗？所螺丝们赚够了吗？也准备撤军了吗？
另外楼主说的替代能源确实了得。国内有个比亚迪，以前专门做电池的，现在进军汽车，模仿了卡罗拉的F3在国内卖的还算不错。他们现在主攻电池汽车，据说已经做到充电一次可行走300KM,最高时速到了150。真到那时候，石油行业当然不会垮，（因为重型汽车需要的大功率发动机只能依赖于柴油（目前来看），还有燃烧发热，工业原料），但是AB就不好办了，成本太高，肯定干不过中东的。
5 X8 ^7 T2 j/ ?9 E/ H房地产行业吗，看看日本，看看香港，看看现在美国的次级债，都会有个轮回。

随心生活

好贴，顶呀

888

好贴顶一下

看风听月

  

专业，中肯

abed

up!!!

特北京

受益匪浅！感谢楼主分享！

leon1070

替代能源是我提到过，也坚信的。记得看过一篇文章讲到食盐、香料曾经对欧洲的重要性，引发的战争和对世界文明的推动，知道电气时代，冰箱等电器的出现使得保存肉类不再依赖食盐、香料。这也是石油的明天。
3 |  _, w; O" Y) Y$ F干石油如果有了十几年的经验，一定记得1998年11美元一桶的原油，有多少大石油公司倒下，如ARCO，重组BP－AMOCO、BAKER HUGHES，源头之一是92、93年的高油价，欧洲倾向于减少能源消耗和寻找使用清洁能源。
说道中东的石油，我几年前在中东的时候，听说的成本不过0.5美元。但ALBERTA的优势一是稳定的社会，二是ALBERTA的石油相关行业，高水准的制造业制造的仪器，设备销售到全世界－这方面我们上游行业没有下游行业的有发言权。
% e- g, f: c; q. [另外，楼主提到ALBERTA的天然气产量储量不多，据我的了解，再ROCKIE MOUNTAIN打十口井就有九口产气。
7 t. x4 m( V' @4 V# {关于SASK的天然气情况，我去过SASK一两次，似乎同RED DEER等地的潜气层类似。
没有结论，只将一些我知道的事情，也想听听大家知道的事情。

laojianghu

发展缓慢下来,石油市场早就崩溃了.

gvjz

1998年时我还在中海油， 痛苦呀，公司减薪百分之10，没有奖金。 直到一年后才恢复。从2000年后石油价格开始发飙。正是小布什上台的日子，这个来自德州石油财阀背景的总统的确不负众望，现在快把油价搞到100了，不过明年他也要滚蛋了，泡去通胀因素，油价确实太高了，  现在有人动不动就把爱城说成北美石油中心，笑话，休斯敦往那摆，搞石油的都知道，多少石油行业标准出自休斯敦，而休斯顿的房价只有这里一半，而且房子还好，本人亲眼所见，呵呵，就是夏天热点，
* z" @: N. U1 }% Y7 T外来人口我觉得有一半时临时人口，这是我从本公司人员和其它钻井现场人员构成得出的结论，很多都是东部过来的，但是以年轻人为主，都在租房，问有没有买房打算，9成的人都没有，他们觉得东部更好，指生活，而这里房价，太高。咱中国人和是喜爱买房的。我觉得AB房价跟甚么石油没啥关系，石油只是一个噱头，关键有没有人炒，以前有人炒，有大炒家做庄，配合其它现在被套或将要被套的小炒房的，房价炒起来了，现在大炒家撤了，人家才不会把资金长期放在一个地方投资那，人家讲究，资金的快速流动性，快速增值。 小炒家也想炒高，但是没那实力，广大人民群众不愿跟进，或没能力跟进，房价就僵在那里了，如果还能涨的话，就拜托上帝派大炒家来吧，  摆脱以后炒房的千万别拿石油说事，胆感，胡说石油大好形势，我立刻告诉大家真实情况。

gvjz

关于天然气，确实出气，绝大多数，但是气层不厚，大多也就5米左右，我是指气层厚度，油层主要在劳埃得的重油，和大草原BC省那边了， 同行希望以后多多交流哦

人生几何

原帖由 gvjz 于 2007-11-28 11:22 发表
1998年时我还在中海油， 痛苦呀，公司减薪百分之10，没有奖金。 直到一年后才恢复。从2000年后石油价格开始发飙。正是小布什上台的日子，这个来自德州石油财阀背景的总统的确不负众望，现在快把油价搞到100了，不过明 ...

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6 ?1 Y: _5 ?  Q$ V8 o( ~" z  客观，中肯。

[ 本帖最后由 人生几何 于 2007-11-28 11:54 编辑 ]

flagship

很想听内部消息呢? 高兴的

leon1070

1998年时我也在中海油！记得减薪10％！
支持你关于现在房价是炒作的观点，实际上我认为油价也有炒作，大家都说中国印度的石油需求量上升催高油价，可实际上中国最近两年增长的原油消耗不过每年不到10％。
刚从TEXAS回来，物价房价确实低，可我宁愿住在加拿大－不喜欢那里的人和环境。

MyFairy

ZT:  CNQ declares end to era of massive projects

7 C; I( \% U# _# e4 ?! A+ WDAVID EBNER
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00:00 EST Wednesday, November 28, 2007

, G' ^1 J: @) W$ x  z* qCALGARY -- Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is slowing down its oil sands developments - declaring the era of "megaprojects" over for the company - as it hopes to tame the cost of labour in the overheated construction market around Fort McMurray, Alta.
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"There will be no megaproject. Megaprojects create a frenzy and cause inflation," Steve Laut, CNQ president, said yesterday. "We will not add to that fire."
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9 [) ^) d2 p7 vThe company has nearly finished building its $7.75-billion Horizon oil sands mine and yesterday said plans for two subsequent phases would be broken into four pieces, pushing completion back two years to 2013.

! i! ]6 [' [% S3 B, tCNQ's strategy could become a new standard in the oil sands, where the emphasis on building huge projects has caused more headaches than successes.

+ t9 c, @: ]! X' j+ A! P/ a- IA tempered pace in the oil sands was a main message at CNQ's annual late-November presentation to investors and financial analysts in Calgary yesterday, but most of those in attendance, while saying the new plan makes sense, were focused on more immediate results.

CNQ is cutting back drilling for natural gas in 2008 by 38 per cent, less than previously expected but still significant, with the company citing low gas prices and higher royalties in Alberta.
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# M1 X/ g; C5 C" ^4 t0 T3 B9 [* o$ BThe decision means total oil and gas production next year is expected to dip about 4 per cent from this year - which disappointed some CNQ investors - though the company emphasized it expects a 30-per-cent surge in 2009 when the Horizon project is fully functional.

The stock was battered, falling 7.7 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange, a decline compounded by the slide in the price of oil, which in general trimmed 2.9 per cent from the TSX energy index.

"I'm not surprised," Mr. Laut told reporters. "I think the market is very focused on near-term production. We are a company that delivers. ... 2009 is going to be a very big year for us. It may take some time for the market to digest this information but I'm very confident, it's a very strong company."
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In the oil sands, which represent the future of the company, CNQ has been able to fend off soaring costs better than its competitors because of various strategies, such as building an air strip to fly in workers from across Canada to increase the general supply of labourers. The moves have held cost increases at Horizon to 14 per cent - far less than at other projects such as Nexen Inc.'s Long Lake, where costs have risen more than 50 per cent from start to finish in about the same time span.
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But CNQ is not immune. The costs of materials such as steel remain high and wages for highly sought-after workers are also higher. The company had previously predicted phases two and three of Horizon might cost $4-billion. That estimate has been scrapped and no comparative figure was issued yesterday.

! X% e9 ]& O5 B  w6 z0 v6 [: IHorizon's nearly complete first phase is set to produce 110,000 barrels a day of synthetic oil, which CNQ hopes to increase in small steps to 250,000 by 2013.

( l5 @8 E% g2 N% D4 L0 j"It's the right strategy," said analyst Adam Zive at Desjardins Securities. However, Mr. Zive said the drop in the stock is justified, given that he feels investors had "totally unrealistic" expectations for growth.
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1 R; w7 `& T* y3 uStephen Calderwood, an analyst at Raymond James, said the new plan for Horizon isn't really all that different from previous expectations.

( }2 ]& r4 a- r8 L+ q. J"It's absolutely repackaging," Mr. Calderwood said. "They just don't want to say 'megaproject.' "

Mr. Laut said the strategy is squarely targeted at construction contractors. He said CNQ wants to get out of the industry's "megaproject syndrome."
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"Companies that come out and say, 'We're going to do an $X-billion project, blah blah blah,' cause an expectation in the contracting community," Mr. Laut told reporters. "And those expectations, I think, lead to higher inflation. We're going to step away from that."
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In 2008, spending on Horizon phase one will be about $1.3-billion, down from $2.7-billion this year as construction is completed.

" D* i0 ]( L! V+ J, J* B( \"We'll be able to start and stop those projects if we don't like the prices we see. That sends a much different message to the contracting community. There is no megaproject going forward."

$ e& Z. G! d6 ]+ C3 Q% x# F) ?CANADIAN NATURAL (CNQ)

/ V  {5 H2 B- G; p" {( O  ^Close: $65.61, down $5.44

© The Globe and Mail

MyFairy

ZT: Canadian Natural slashes spending, blames royalty hike
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/ m2 e# D( j1 A4 x$ f# YJOHN PARTRIDGE
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$ i' y8 |' ^2 @* WTuesday, November 27, 2007
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Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., one of the country's top energy producers, will slash its capital spending on conventional crude and natural gas by one-third to $1.7-billion next year and is blaming most of the reduction on the new royalty regime adopted last month by the Alberta government.
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Putting hard numbers to an earlier threat, the Calgary company said early Tuesday that 78 per cent or $645-million of the $827-million reduction stems from the new regime, which is to take effect in 2009 and has set off a storm of criticism from the oil and gas industry.
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“The new royalty regime ... will [absorb] the vast majority of any increases in natural gas prices for most of our natural gas wells,” John Langille, vice-chairman of the Calgary company, said in a news release Tuesday. “As such, the ability to increase natural gas drilling activity with increasing gas prices is severely impacted.”

2 M5 h" j3 Q8 x# {* U7 EThe new royalties will raise levies on oil and gas producers across the board in Alberta.
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& K. }0 {7 O. F3 g8 X- hCanadian Natural's shares fell as far as $64.99 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, but as midday approached they were trading at $65.86, down $5.19 or 7.3 per cent from Monday's close.

$ G: a4 p# Y! k2 Z7 Y0 Y8 EThe company, founded and controlled by billionaire Murray Edwards, warned at the beginning of this month that it would radically cut plans for natural gas drilling in Alberta by 40 per cent in 2008 — down from a previous threat of a 67 per cent cut — and move production to British Columbia, West Africa and the North Sea.

It said Tuesday it has chopped planned natural gas drilling in Alberta by 44 per cent to 195 net wells next year, while increasing activity in B.C. and Saskatchewan by 8 per cent to 119 wells. This means it will drill a total of 314 net wells in 2008, down 31 per cent from its previous forecast.
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8 a$ p/ B7 J, Z  _It also warned more cuts are in Alberta likely down the road.
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“The new Alberta royalty regime dramatically reduces drilling economics of certain play types at current and higher price forecasts in future years by extending the project payout period due to a front end loaded royalty structure,” Canadian Natural said. “As such, further cuts in both conventional and high productive rate deep natural gas wells are expected in future years as they would not benefit from first year production under the current regime.”
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Company figures show that while it has increased its capital spending budget for West Africa offshore gas and conventional oil to $458-million next year from $159-million in 2007, the North Sea budget will fall to $231-million from $474-million.
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The overall budget for North American natural gas, meanwhile, has been set at $617-million, down from $991-million this year.
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/ X% \/ w( U6 r2 q7 @, HCanadian Natural said it has set a natural gas production target of 1,429 mmcf/d to 1,513 mmcf/d, before royalties, about 12 per cent less than the midpoint of its 2007 guidance.
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The company also said it has budgeted $689-million for international conventional crude oil and natural gas capital spending for 2008 and between $600-million and $1.02-billion for the completion of the first phase of the Horizon oil sands project.

) b) W- y7 b. C/ F4 _1 k! iCanadian Natural estimates that it will generate between $4.6-billion and $5.1-billion in cash from operations ($8.50 to $9.40 a share) based on a forecast average price of $73 (U.S.) a barrel for West Texas intermediate crude, a natural gas price of $7/mmbtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Canadian and U.S. dollars being at parity.

© The Globe and Mail

DaPeng

同意, 油价是被布石同学炒上去的, 09年会回落.

MyFairy

ZT: PetroCan pushes ahead in oil sands
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" B5 ^3 M) ?! O& IDAVID EBNER

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

8 e; h& N- X) ?& ?CALGARY — Petro-Canada says higher royalties in the oil sands won't derail its projects, including the $14-billion Fort Hills facility that is still being designed.
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: y6 A7 G* K7 _6 f' Y* |9 l- GHigher royalties are “not sufficient to really impair the overall viability” of the company's oil sands projects, Ron Brenneman, Petrocan chief executive officer, said in Edmonton on Wednesday.
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“At least at this point they still look like pretty solid projects and I think that's because, for the most part, we're dealing with very high quality resources and very good projects and they're the ones that should survive in the new royalty regime,” Mr. Brenneman said.
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Mr. Brenneman also said Petrocan would be interested in increasing its 60-per-cent stake in Fort Hills if the opportunity arises. (Teck Cominco and UTS Energy hold 20 per cent apiece.)
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Last month, Alberta said it would increase royalties across the board by a total of 20 per cent, aiming to collect $1.4-billion more in 2010 with higher rates coming into force in 2009. The industry in September had reacted negatively to proposals to increase royalties, but was more positive toward the final decision.
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At current oil prices, the initial oil sands royalty of 1 per cent would rise to about 6 per cent, a rate charged as companies make back the billions of dollars they spent to build their plants. After so-called payout, the current rate is 25 per cent, which would rise under the new system to 33 per cent, with oil at $91 a barrel.

Investors and analysts have said the increases are reasonable.

$ F; h4 T/ q- \Pedro van Meurs, a consultant on energy fiscal matters who worked on the Alberta royalty system, has said the new oil sands regime is a “disaster for Alberta,” in that it doesn't go nearly far enough.
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Royalties in conventional natural gas will also rise. Petrocan said this means some money it would have spent in Alberta will go elsewhere, such as to the Rockies in the United States, where the company is struggling, and to the eastern Arctic, where the company has assets that it hasn't worked in many years.
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+ `" p2 q, g. @0 z3 W8 [& x: f“The exploration investments that we might have otherwise made are no longer economic,” Mr. Brenneman said.
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He also suggested Petrocan would put more money into Libya. Petrocan spent about one-quarter of its capital dollars this year on international endeavours, nearly $1-billion.
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Libya has one of the most onerous fiscal regimes on Earth, with new producers sometimes receiving less than 10 per cent of profits.
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: k4 w' E% Y9 B4 r0 [! e3 MWhile Petrocan is using the Alberta royalties decision as a reason for moving exploration dollars, the company in fact has for many years been shifting its focus well beyond the province.
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In 2007, of a total capital spending budget of $4.12-billion, just 20 per cent, or $825-million, was devoted to North American natural gas.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., a larger competitor to Petrocan, on Tuesday said it was cutting gas spending in Alberta, where it focuses much of its business, but did so by less than it had previously threatened. Higher royalties was cited as the main problem.
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4 @% }6 h% d& H# G3 pHowever, the commodity price is a crucial issue, too, as was noted by Canadian Natural.
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The February contract for natural gas at Alberta's key AECO hub is priced at $6.42, which is barely above what industry considers a breakeven level.
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" @% |/ w' U& @4 F; b( qWith files from Canadian Press

0 b1 B- A7 }# ?. ^© The Globe and Mail

liyong

实际; 中肯. 谢谢!

一半清醒

看来搂主和楼上的几位是石油的行家，对石油和钻井非常了解。 的
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- i4 _2 t! ^+ a" o4 C9 a我们现在最想了解的是:阿省的石油产量有多少来自井采,又有多少来自油沙?
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据了解阿省的石油热潮主要集中在油沙项目上,省环境部所批的项目可以作为参考.
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关于油价,你们所说的循环理论,也略有耳闻.但我有不同的看法,石油涨价的因素:
1.        美元贬值.以石油为代表的能源和自然资源的使用价值变化不大的前提下,衡量其价值的货币在不断贬值,体现其价格就不断上涨.
2.        抑制中国和印度的超高速发展. 米国和一些发达国家不希望看到这种趋势,更不希望有朝一日有国家超过他们.同时他们发现: 中国和印度人口众多,能人也不少,但最大的瓶颈是能源和自然资源不充足, 这些东西涨价不但可以抑制对手,也可以使本国获利.一箭双雕.
2 k2 h  l0 D/ v. W6 N2 O* [- ^3.        做个极限的假设,如果油价再一次跌到一桶$10左右,中国将受益最大,发展将更快,老美等国愿意看到???所以石油价短期(3-5年)暴跌的概率非常小.无论谁在米国执政,都不希望对手强大. 油价会大跌吗？

MyFairy

ZT: Petrocan chief backs oil sands despite royalties

: Q: G. ?! m% t, G( \. rOverall viability won't be affected, says CEO Brenneman, but company's conventional oil and gas spending likely to be cut
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DAVID EBNER AND NORVAL SCOTT
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00:00 EST Thursday, November 29, 2007
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- M* D0 O9 W* @/ s& ?5 UCALGARY, EDMONTON -- Higher petroleum royalties in Alberta will not hurt the "overall viability" of Petro-Canada oil sands projects, but some planned investment in conventional oil and gas in the province will be affected, chief executive officer Ron Brenneman said yesterday.

"At least at this point [the oil sands] still look like pretty solid projects and I think that's because for the most part we're dealing with very high-quality resources. ... They're the ones that should survive in the new royalty regime," Mr. Brenneman said at the company's investor day in Edmonton.

% j+ G: }: w6 R2 c5 s" w8 a( _7 G+ i6 uIncreases in royalties for conventional oil and gas production will mean that some exploration Petrocan might have carried out will be "no longer economic."

" w8 ?* J& y5 p0 [/ ]+ n# q2 V/ dIt was the second time in two days that a major oil company has said it would chop spending in Alberta. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) said Tuesday that it would cut back natural gas drilling in the province by 38 per cent next year.
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Last month, Alberta said it will increase royalties across the board by a total of 20 per cent, aiming to collect $1.4-billion more in 2010, with higher rates coming into force in 2009.
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- _5 |. S6 {8 dWhile some conventional oil and gas producers have complained that the new regime will hurt their profits and have indicated they have plans to move spending elsewhere, the response from oil sands firms has been relatively muted.

CNQ did say on Tuesday that it is slowing down its plans to develop the oil sands, declaring the era of "megaprojects" over.
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  c; n( h  r3 @8 @The company said the main cause was the spiralling cost of labour around Fort McMurray and didn't blame higher royalties.

The level of returns that the first $14-billion phase of Fort Hills might produce if oil prices are low has caused some concern amongst some analysts, and Petrocan itself has described them as "skinny."
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1 a+ X5 S1 t2 D9 v$ T" H) INevertheless, the company has remained staunchly committed to the project, and even acquired an additional 5-per-cent stake in the development from partner UTS Energy Corp. for $375-million after the original royalty review panel report was released in September.

Mr. Brenneman said that while he was happy with Petrocan's current stake in Fort Hills, the company would consider taking a further increased interest there if one were to become available.
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2 J* J+ I# J: w. p4 g" p' dIn conventional natural gas, Petrocan said it would direct some money from Alberta to exploration in the U.S. Rockies, although details on spending plans won't be revealed until next month.
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The company has for many years been shifting its focus well beyond the province; in 2007, of a total capital spending budget of $4.12-billion, just 20 per cent was devoted to North American natural gas, of which Alberta is a part.

! H7 M1 n# o2 A% ~. {A small amount of investment would be diverted to Petrocan's plans to evaluate its holdings in the eastern Arctic.
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While that process is in the very early stages, Petrocan's assets might support the development of a liquefied natural gas terminal in time, Mr. Brenneman said.

PETRO-CANADA (PCA)

Close: $49.11, down 39¢

! A# J: u: v4 b2 @4 ?( e© The Globe and Mail

Z

原帖由 一半清醒 于 2007-11-29 11:20 发表
1.        美元贬值.以石油为代表的能源和自然资源的使用价值变化不大的前提下,衡量其价值的货币在不断贬值,体现其价格就不断上涨.
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2.        抑制中国和印度的超高速发展. 米国和一些发达国家不希望看到这种趋势,更不希望有朝一日有国家超过他们.同时他们发现: 中国和印度人口众多,能人也不少,但最大的瓶颈是能源和自然资源不充足, 这些东西涨价不但可以抑制对手,也可以使本国获利.一箭双雕.
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3.        做个极限的假设,如果油价再一次跌到一桶$10左右,中国将受益最大,发展将更快,老美等国愿意看到???所以石油价短期(3-5年)暴跌的概率非常小.无论谁在米国执政,都不希望对手强大. 油价会大跌吗？

# Z! }  D: H  V  J1）石油并非恒定价值，你的假设就错了。油价也取决与人们的承受力和预期。石油1980年是39美元，稳步降了19年，到1998是13美元。这中间美元是持续贬值的，世界原油需求几乎年年上升，可见没有你说的那么简单。
. E0 c6 @4 T$ C1 b) m; Y
6 j  h2 M+ Y( b/ I2）你高估了美国的能力。油价高，只是美国自身问题而造成的印钱过量（挽救科技泡沫+反恐+伊拉克战争）。其它国家要对付油价上涨很容易---货币升值。就说加拿大，前几年油价是30美元=45加元，现在是90美元=90加元。油价以美元计，是3倍，但以加元计是2倍。幅度差很多。中国人民币跟随美元一起贬值，是中国自身的问题，和美国政策无关。
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$ d  b2 L) \* E9 C, @% H- _2 }3）你把因果弄反了。说油价可能下跌，当然是说中印经济先冷却，然后再石油下跌。等油价下跌后，中印方可再缓慢的恢复。BRIC这四国，本质上就像股市的4个小盘股。涨的最快，但风险也最大。就说中国的龙头中石油，业务量也就XOM的1/3，但市值却是其2倍，不是泡沫是什么？现在中国股市疯狂也就是80年代日本股市的翻版而已。市盈率高的不敢看---我这说的都是中石油这样增长缓慢的大公司，要是小公司高市盈率到还能容忍一下。
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5 ]% V$ z* {0 q4）任何力都有反作用力。油价高，就会导致中国造产品的成本提高，就会影响中国出口到美国的贸易，就会影响中国的就业，就会影响到中国对石油的需求，最终又会影响油价。现在是奥运前夜，中国在不惜工本的筹备奥运，基建达到高峰。等奥运过去，就水落石出了。你还记得香港97年7月1日回归，港股是几号触顶的，几号开始暴跌的吗？

lalah

原帖由 Z 于 2007-11-29 12:02 发表
9 }, a$ _4 e' Z. J
- W2 D) w1 @' y6 E4 G5 C2 J2 ?1）石油并非恒定价值，你的假设就错了。油价也取决与人们的承受力和预期。石油1980年是39美元，稳步降了19年，到1998是13美元。这中间美元是持续贬值的，世界原油需求几乎年年上升，可见没有你说的那么简单。
* ^: _( n; h9 D: P ...

3 D" [5 ]8 U7 j1 w+ i! y
5 L. e8 `9 z0 G% c 的

一半清醒

原帖由 Z 于 2007-11-29 12:02 发表
3 m( G4 G- u, n1））石油并非恒定价值，你的假设就错了。油价也取决与人们的承受力和预期。石油1980年是39美元，稳步降了19年，到1998是13美元。这中间美元是持续贬值的，世界原油需求几乎年年上升，可见没有你说的那么简单。
  n" k: T/ u% ~" v0 x/ N$ }. J8 i" _# N
6 Q& J* m2 ]4 ~# [( e, H2）你高估了美国的能力。油价高，只是美国自身问题而造成的印钱过量（挽救科技泡沫+反恐+伊拉克战争）。其它国家要对付油价上涨很容易---货币升值。就说加拿大，前几年油价是30美元=45加元，现在是90美元=90加元。油价以美元计，是3倍，但以加元计是2倍。幅度差很多。中国人民币跟随美元一起贬值，是中国自身的问题，和美国政策无关。
7 f% G. w0 {* ]" Y8 K; Z6 o, {+ g7 f. m3 p0 N8 W% m
# _/ {9 z) w: E3）你把因果弄反了。说油价可能下跌，当然是说中印经济先冷却，然后再石油下跌。等油价下跌后，中印方可再缓慢的恢复。BRIC这四国，本质上就像股市的4个小盘股。涨的最快，但风险也最大。就说中国的龙头中石油，业务量也就XOM的1/3，但市值却是其2倍，不是泡沫是什么？现在中国股市疯狂也就是80年代日本股市的翻版而已。市盈率高的不敢看---我这说的都是中石油这样增长缓慢的大公司，要是小公司高市盈率到还能容忍一下。
# Q4 D7 y0 t! b- h
  i  ^% l4 C) j8 [5 x# S% z% u) w4）任何力都有反作用力。油价高，就会导致中国造产品的成本提高，就会影响中国出口到美国的贸易，就会影响中国的就业，就会影响到中国对石油的需求，最终又会影响油价。现在是奥运前夜，中国在不惜工本的筹备奥运，基建达到高峰。等奥运过去，就水落石出了。你还记得香港97年7月1日回归，港股是几号触顶的，几号开始暴跌的吗？

2 Q* ?) \$ p9 \/ j
' a3 I" N4 m/ d咳！你还作参考吧，别当真理看。
答1： 我提过“石油恒定价值”吗？！只说使用价值变化不大前提。既然你提80年的事，你知道当时发生什么大事了吗，前苏联解体，俄罗斯经济一塌糊涂，只有靠卖石油等资源维持，另一个大国还趁机打低油价，居心何在？成功地把昔日的老对手踩在脚下多少年。
答2：美国在大部分行业都有顶尖人才，即使没有他们也不惜重金从其他国家挖人。经济和金融上就更不说了。国家财力和能力不强？        任何国家的纸币都在贬值, 贬值速度有加快的趋势,各个国家之间差异就更大了.油和自然资源涨价是必然趋势.
答3:不是我因果弄反了,是你理解有偏差.中印自己的资源都不够,必须依赖进口. 资源涨价要么利润率下降,要么产品涨价,失去市场竞争力,阻碍国家高速发展势头.
答4: 在老美看来,油价只是工具,能达到抑制中国最好.不管其价格是多少.
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请不要过多地跟我提股票,不太感兴趣. 尽管炒股多年,手上也有一些股票,心中根本没那玩艺,就是个赚赔钱的工具而已

gvjz

目前约一半产量来自油砂，井产包括传统原油，天然气，和埋藏大于75米的油砂矿，潜层油砂是露天开采的，
至于美国要压制中国，不是这一两年才开始的，而且以美元结算石油的开始时候好像苏联还在，那时好像原油价格并不高，
* z8 q- |, k; u2 G( i  c! O再深入咱就不懂了， 和这里好多老石油聊天时他们说，他们经历了好几个循环了，我只经历过一个目前。至于油砂开发一样离不开传统石油行业，我认为房价和石油没关系，你可以参考现在油价，历史最高，但房价没见跟进，应该是没有做庄的了。

一半清醒

原帖由 gvjz 于 2007-11-29 14:20 发表
! y! T# ?. p' V& N目前约一半产量来自油砂，井产包括传统原油，天然气，和埋藏大于75米的油砂矿，潜层油砂是露天开采的，
3 r/ f; K9 B; m( C  Y' z至于美国要压制中国，不是这一两年才开始的，而且以美元结算石油的开始时候好像苏联还在，那时好像原油价格并不高，
: t0 O9 g( @  f0 Y/ V9 m1 _" ^再深入咱就不懂了， 和这里好多老石油聊天时他们说，他们经历了好几个循环了，我只经历过一个目前。至于油砂开发一样离不开传统石油行业，我认为房价和石油没关系，你可以参考现在油价，历史最高，但房价没见跟进，应该是没有做庄的了。

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谢谢提供信息！
一个朋友给我看一份近期阿省能源规划报告多数油砂项目的，很少提到井产原油和天然气不知道为什么，是不是没有太大的投入和项目？希望你们圈里人多提供一些信息。
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2 l! B+ U& G$ x- Q( D我不认为这里的房价与油价有太大的关系，大家都看到了，国际市场油价屡创新高，爱城房价却在调整之中。但大的石油项目或其他项目将对房价有较大的影响。特别是油砂提炼项目涉及专业和工种多，而阿省还没有太多的相关人员，只能从外省和国外引进，对地产的冲击还是有的。

pchell

支持讨论。特别是gvjz和leon1070提供的信息，很有用。
" e; [6 L/ I- x4 C$ S# I( n另：纠正一个常识性错误： 房价和目前油价没有直接关系，直接关联的是预期油价，这个预期可以是10年、20年甚至100年。爱城房价在最高峰的时候，也是对油砂工业最看好的时候。现在虽然油价还在涨，但业界对油砂的看法有一些调整（参考 gvjz的说法），从而带动房价调整。
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[ 本帖最后由 pchell 于 2007-11-29 18:21 编辑 ]

gvjz

关于项目规划，我是这样认为的，传统石油，天然气，基本在AB省南部，在南部基本已经布满了，原油，天然气管线和，与之相关的，油气处理终端，经常去野外转的人可以发现，很多大小不一的油气终端布满AB 乡间，而整个AB南部地域基本上被各个油公司瓜分成不同区块，干过一口井，大斜度井，靠着印第安人保留地，但是井已经通过地下打到人家底下去了，可见井的密度多没大，所以，传统油气生产，不需要甚么项目规划，直接钻口井，完井后接好井口设备，通过管线连到主干管网上。而且对油气价格反应快，价格高了，立刻打井，这里效率很高，1000米不出甚么以外的话2周全搞定，直接卖油卖气赚钱，但是油砂就不一样了，几乎从头开始，周期长，对油价长期走势敏感，成本在那呀，又加上高昂的人工成本，主要是人工的生活成本太高了，房价物价等，这对油公司，和业内员工都没好处，看似高薪，其实生活水平并不高，油公司就别提了，多花了钱，还不能立刻见效，收回成本是长期的事。
他们也不着急了，反正区块是我的，石油是不可其再生资源，急甚么，从今年冬季油砂项目，油公司资费方式可以看出他们改变策略了，改成按工作量付费，而不是以前的日费了，想在过热的房价，决不是过热的油砂经济，已经拖AB经济的腿了，我发现很有意思的事，就是打工的工作遍地都是，，但是所谓石油专业工作并不好找，人员都满了，而且还多，而服务行业却找不到人，为什么？工资底，不合适，干几天就走了，找不到油田相关人家就回老家了，又不象中国还有户口一说。
你想，生活成本太高，对资方和从业人员都没好处，只有对炒房和开发商有好处，这样的房价能持续增长下去嘛，政府可以通过短期卖地挣钱，但长期来看必然导致经济滑坡，政府傻嘛，又不能通过其它手段经济降温，不象中国政府有行政手段，那就搞个专利税吧，目前已经统一了，经济降温。反正石油在咱地盘上早晚都是自己的。急煞

西红柿酸