 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
7 }( W; ]# Q p+ W: L$ f( c% |8 g; H* F0 C% V5 S
Republish Reprint
3 n+ ~) g% v# L* Q4 NGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET: \ \: x2 r0 [- H! o& k8 I
More from Gordon Isfeld; Q# z7 R. R0 I' t' F$ }& Z% X
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
4 X" m( h' W$ ~. tBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.% {, f7 D0 J! F- I4 T1 ^! g5 r$ u- _
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
+ W, ~ h4 q7 u- \0 u; KOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
1 M. o! V4 O& Q" b! c# K; q% R. a& k; o5 z6 z* y+ V
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.- t: |4 J( V. J R. R! i
3 W7 i5 k% c( P3 K$ \In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”* w( I: s0 I; z" _7 A8 n
8 r2 ~7 y7 D" b7 hMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
: e! x7 ~( B) g+ v8 c% {- T
- T) M5 }( h/ I“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.9 ~2 o/ b3 a! R, W* A# ~
$ ]) O7 B; @ l4 [1 `
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.! _$ d9 ~1 ]$ Y% s' V: q1 Q k
) A' V Y/ K$ h/ n
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
$ z' w& @$ q; k) M7 E
$ x( _0 q, q( q1 d' K* r( e/ j7 fIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
0 w F& {/ p. w1 J# ]9 R; U
1 J( L6 {2 r/ ^ X+ V$ l: H+ ERelated
; ~. S/ G: S1 ~5 {/ {Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns6 s' |- y' E/ P$ d( S' A0 Y
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’* W. X8 q d) F! E' ]
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
7 B% R) U. g* W! [Advertisement8 f, X1 @5 b6 ^
8 ^: C, r) W% b# U$ {( t/ ]8 I! b: R
6 H3 g9 g# ~7 H" yThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.& z3 {. l1 N& Z0 m7 B3 ]' ~
/ j% M+ ?4 c, G |! O/ K0 a“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
/ c/ G* |2 c. A8 P/ Q0 n7 G. c' j% _" {# Y% D, F/ {6 k
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
( N! a' L% q" J5 I+ |! g: A2 R0 K# S/ h! Q2 u
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
' c1 \' k% r' `9 i7 v9 c1 ]4 k' T- A5 `
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.) @; z! s* d: C- ~/ c
' |( { R X/ ?6 U. gThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.. q. k4 b/ r' O1 e# F
, J: d: O* N7 bMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
; m% z/ y- o) @6 ^& k, H7 W% _
* X [5 X& Z6 c, k3 b5 nThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
% P: Z x' M) X+ _0 x4 A1 M* d4 ]2 {# K' y
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.5 ^, H- A0 ~# n# m& @5 a
. z' D: G; k- S" e/ {Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
2 B. w: l9 F" [, C8 f* Q+ L7 G1 R) I) R' i n S
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
