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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts3 Z# k$ Y% |$ w) P3 Z1 e; o
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET& R3 a4 ^! i2 {) U. S1 u9 f6 y5 i
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! K( U% X0 ~- y/ |- c
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.% D# C) q, J5 D5 Q: M/ D
; @7 k# e5 x N5 n; KThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.- o# c9 Y- O% ?5 G) _2 }
_! A+ w8 Z& @6 PIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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! b3 }- Z3 E7 K% r) ^5 N& L! g, ]As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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+ c ]$ Y' b; UHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.4 [, }+ }1 x: ]
2 e* a, T. P# [8 |# NIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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) i. v1 p- ^( W8 x6 x; ~Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns# l7 G1 |0 E. P5 E' C
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
' H3 i6 e7 U# a. G+ Z$ ^% C7 B" }' bThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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0 @6 F! v0 E( x1 ~% h6 ^The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.# ?& r5 K/ I% [5 ?
3 D0 Y# R3 k4 S( }5 M9 tCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.% ?: o" E) u" N0 E. G# e! v
y3 h, V" H* D g8 |# kContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.6 W+ g. D* ~0 M% U, G
/ n& O" f$ j. S: |' g& |/ E, a- RThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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5 B/ P7 \! Y) x4 O+ c/ {Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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; _: j* C( J4 }- AThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.. y9 V# Z2 ?# ]' \1 C1 [! p- r& m$ @
4 `# e- n' e" T“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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8 k) p! {. ^4 ?9 x/ nTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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