 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts& ]/ \& W2 O, ^" E( c
! @+ q* c$ Q/ e" t! `
Republish Reprint
& `7 E x# b' x# gGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET/ _# {* P5 w# A; v* | y+ S
More from Gordon Isfeld& p5 @; K. k0 U, ]
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
) G) \# R1 J Y; N, JBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
4 S6 J/ d8 q2 w9 U8 |$ T0 u Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More# V1 _5 d+ Z; d! s, ^2 C
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
' I& G4 ]2 H, Y; `9 C# U! ?$ s( Q
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
; c6 ?/ g0 X3 j6 U% H& L8 v/ _* m) A7 ?' N
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
7 V& t D- W4 t5 [* P2 M/ y9 s1 u u; v9 J! h3 e9 ^& q9 c, p0 }
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
- `6 ?) p, }; I! G: Y' n1 N3 S/ M% x7 w
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.; r$ S- c, J- W$ \4 U
: a7 `* W# W% x" O+ N- I
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn." n# H% K) a( Q# ^- k2 d
8 Y- r+ t- f- n. U! lHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.$ g7 p) x! f; P/ m
. T1 z) M6 x+ W5 r# w
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
; } |( b h9 [: ^2 G9 b6 i! m& s( i- A3 J- I, z) T" m
Related0 N+ E& s% p9 U5 j0 l: N9 p
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
7 l. F. N, P6 t- P5 CCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’- y. j3 N, Z! L. C7 V8 F" d
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over- N6 A! b# `% I1 F% q$ ~7 l
Advertisement4 L3 S* g" A* c; b9 ?
% ]1 E# m ^$ Z! X; S: Z
7 V/ u* X; l7 \: P }8 K) ]
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
; I2 k' B. z# v! G& i% U
O5 \( T" g" H+ t* I4 {9 e“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
; o7 H/ B( q, j2 |0 G0 l
# }5 U) T$ n5 ~- ZFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.* r+ d% `% F. T5 X! g4 U3 R1 k# C
6 ~( p2 a8 d. O+ W
CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.& B+ z; B, G$ A$ t8 U
9 Y! K4 ]& |+ ?/ l" P: x, Q, H
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
! w& o# o7 L8 O; K" a) Z1 i5 Z5 X/ x7 e! s" E7 u
The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.: Y4 I/ i5 q7 k2 \
k1 w s' u5 i. F( a
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
- V8 M, ?9 O$ c* T1 v! Q1 C! n, @7 S& B7 k" ]
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
1 P; ~1 c9 r9 Z5 n& j0 T
7 L/ G. V% K7 s. @“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said." }4 R2 w6 w* J- O- P9 ~
- c/ \+ C2 Z$ Z1 X
Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.. l6 m& s/ x* \; f% F
9 F; q9 O9 ?, w" \4 g) s. [
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
