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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts g7 X1 w, k: ~; G) Y5 w9 d
) w9 r1 o5 U+ W% fRepublish Reprint5 y9 e& ~7 z; E
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
9 P& g7 m: g9 ^, \& f, Y. M0 VBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.& ^' q c3 h4 l! [) q& R
! G% N* O+ A9 B$ \0 |$ iThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.5 D, U! T/ U( \# I( }# k
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.% t- k* _9 Y7 q3 U3 Q- M
8 c3 ~2 j- z' M2 u# AAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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6 v8 T9 l6 i3 ?! fHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.0 r) G+ j4 Y F* ~7 K" T8 v# K9 c
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.) [' Z, j. t) y# x( H. q' D* {
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
( }8 Q& ? R. C: z2 O; y6 WCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’, L+ [$ r& Z% Z
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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6 J7 O1 o+ _: o Y" ^+ _The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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) D7 D& x' p8 G+ _/ XFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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7 D3 [9 q# D# g/ i9 RThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.$ s4 ^: F1 v2 r+ P
6 e$ h& k! W9 SMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.. G0 r+ H* d: U' a
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.9 a, ~4 z& x/ C( }( a) Q
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said., J$ f, D$ L S* d
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.# n% c' g. M& o2 V. {1 b6 S' V
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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