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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts' b4 F( J" `1 ~
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
, j) e& f4 b9 C9 e% ~, ?+ h# WBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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, k8 `. O+ X- f8 x* q9 WOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.- ~; s% s7 c" V0 q' k
) l0 B. y: m6 e6 ^6 U C" {That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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7 @% {3 h$ x: m6 e' j8 LIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”; o0 V, N. J0 G) g' F
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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b4 h/ H; ?! X! U8 E“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.3 Q! x% ^0 j: i( E0 C% H0 L
) }8 N6 h4 |2 J! ^* d! Y7 {As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn./ _. {2 W: F! }/ n6 I
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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7 ~+ k8 d6 R( ?. a4 E2 u& MRelated
7 m T; K' l# r8 M& qCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
$ p- g! \% e+ M; b. BCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’, j% k4 o3 E6 |4 }2 y2 f/ J
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over1 {) i2 M; d+ q" t/ z) D4 W1 `
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/ a6 H5 }+ \: r, m, yThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.9 ]3 c& P$ f, {/ a
0 O N; D( ?2 h& S, y1 P) Z/ [# ]“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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) \. B8 d' `; A0 WFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.; }' \) {% m( R$ `$ b# g0 \$ f
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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5 {1 A; X- e9 a' s) s) fContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.& a2 ]6 `# v% X" R
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.( y% ^# ?6 d0 w* v
; r2 a6 z. _: i, ?. fMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.# e1 v$ b0 t. Y8 P9 h8 |
$ r1 P% l4 Y( s P4 {& p" x. WThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.) a8 T g8 q5 b! M- p3 _, S0 r
" g8 b7 f* |. F/ f# m7 H8 y“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%." J1 e/ N8 @" q* i: U/ ~
& c8 P, p2 @" {$ z& O! ~“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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