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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts1 R b' f3 n! S7 ^
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/ O; d( c3 N- S2 c' w; VGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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2 _- j8 [/ k! hLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.6 O6 M7 g. p# i! P
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.: F. r( i: w8 E+ `/ ~6 r
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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. s6 m5 s+ r# YMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year." S5 k2 |* a' f+ A9 i; i3 |* O' y
4 b1 N* j' B& m" x, W( G“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.* C* R$ Y9 d ^+ B( l. d V O+ I
9 q/ L2 @6 r9 n2 o( g- dAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.4 {! W( o" X6 g) G
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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) ]1 b2 Y; {7 r- G/ t- w( Z( XIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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8 w' p- T2 z0 ~! g9 vRelated
& D7 |2 o4 d ~: d0 T( r. gCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
, Y. m0 C @# K; m5 rCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’& s. }+ {0 R* N9 Y2 }
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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& E( _7 Y9 W! r3 k' Y9 n7 AThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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7 Y8 ], H# B8 u6 o/ e6 r- m1 rCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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! e+ O9 d+ D% M' R* rContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010." H5 W0 E2 A2 c
: U+ f- Y* A+ v' M% ]3 |2 L9 E1 TThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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3 [: k3 U& w7 Q$ W3 x/ zThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.1 l, E# H6 |9 d; W. s
3 E2 \1 e1 [7 ?8 H9 \9 ^Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.9 K# ~$ D# c7 P
' S! |$ j8 s( Y4 ]2 D& M9 t8 X“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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