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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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3 f5 e5 ?: \! ]. D3 [. lBy Barani Krishnan
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, o5 x! ~ a% N* K; bNEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.
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Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.
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$ t a7 y" y9 h) k' ~( E"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".4 U) T0 w2 S1 P
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Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as
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" ~* b$ a3 B* k9 estorage continues to fill."
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- x/ l6 D- x# |. d8 f$ e \U.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.! c# `9 V7 R. Y8 O; L6 [
1 `: r: S0 s4 D# AThe front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.
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9 _7 O9 O f* a( [6 H% m6 G _Both crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.
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0 T6 R" N4 n+ PThe oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.
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Crude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs." v4 g$ `4 W* z
; g/ h2 w% h+ x( B8 B# yAnalysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.
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Germany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.0 _! v. K, l' @9 V
; i% ~5 b* S( ]" hInvestors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.
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(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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