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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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By Barani Krishnan
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! h9 h# `) I# N+ ^# f; N7 ^NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.
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+ d1 ~8 ~4 Y" a3 m& H4 V( [+ ^Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.
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"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".0 n- s: Z+ ~9 Y, B7 T. ^+ b
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Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as
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4 m/ ~5 U8 n: p; o5 R# e* ]( q8 Nstorage continues to fill."
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, v+ v$ d$ u+ `; v ?& fU.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.$ T2 b% [! p1 J+ A/ D' m
* h/ ?5 ?6 x5 ^$ jThe front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.
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Both crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.+ h! W+ j ]! ]. U( [
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The oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.# S5 w5 g3 X. J3 [% `' Z
; D5 R! E% S& G- K iCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs.
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.
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: s! N1 C. `& ^Germany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.
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; @* m3 d5 A$ u8 H2 d6 ~Investors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.* @9 l, S. s" }! m
% B- l( t x/ c6 `! e* }' y/ ~7 P+ f(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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