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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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By Barani Krishnan* X. o: q% K' [1 Q' ~/ g
) o: Q: {# ^9 |- PNEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.2 ]+ v, h+ {) h' z/ Y, Y
2 S/ q5 X% M' Z7 s) O( N* ]! k9 N3 PJoining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.9 y2 b& k d- Z2 J, N0 Q
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"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".2 J4 b7 d- [3 [: D( _" ]
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Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as% `8 C2 p- {, l) S, L5 B, m
$ e+ V; G( l& a6 Y, ~storage continues to fill."% T. z" m1 s# m
) J2 e/ f, Y5 ~7 U0 ]U.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT." {- p( }- x# `' R6 M& T
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The front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.
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Both crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.
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0 G, v& Y P x5 GThe oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.! {. A' |. L: { `9 I: C
& J; a) s1 q2 S2 \5 l6 XCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs.( J( Y; @, d6 y6 q: `
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.! n* w( t1 ^7 \, }# @ m* |
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Germany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.
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Investors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.8 }8 L$ O9 a; `! ]/ O+ v6 Y/ E
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(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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