Who will be Federal Reserve Chairman?

朝阳

美联储主席之职花落谁家？
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发布日期：2004-11-30　我来说两句　信息来源：sina
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% X/ q2 @" T  a. {: j1 C   　It might seem daunting to follow a legend like Greenspan, now in his 18th year in the job. Yet there seem to be plenty of people who would like to do it.

% {8 z& t. ~2 e+ w　　While President Bush is busy putting together his Cabinet for a second term, the financial world’s attention is on a job vacancy 14 months away: Who will succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan?

　　It might seem daunting to follow a legend like Greenspan, now in his 18th year in the job. Yet there seem to be plenty of people who would like to do it.
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　　The list of candidates being talked about in Washington and on Wall Street is half what it was before the Nov. 2 election, when prominent Democrats such as former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin were considered hot prospects had
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　　Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry won the White House.
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/ ]6 [' k# j9 D4 i2 m* r　　With Bush’s re-election, the focus is on Republicans. Candidates include Harvard economics professor Martin Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Reagan administration; Columbia University professor Glenn Hubbard, who was Bush’s first CEA chairman; Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor; and Federal Reserve board member Ben Bernanke.

" X2 J4 W  a9 R　　Handicappers generally put Feldstein, 65, at the top of the list, in part because he is the best known. He has had a distinguished teaching career at Harvard and served from 1982 to 1984 as chairman of the CEA, a post that Greenspan used as a stepping stone to the Fed job.
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　　Some believe Hubbard, at 46 the youngest on the list, might have an inside track because of his strong support for Bush’s tax cuts. Also, doubts linger among some conservative GOP supply-siders about Feldstein, given his reputation as a deficit hawk.
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+ Z1 C0 n% h/ i) v) U　　Taylor, 57, gained prominence as a monetary expert at Stanford University before coming to Treasury. He developed the "Taylor rule," a formula designed to aid the Fed in setting interest rates. He has had trouble making an impact on administration economic policy in his current job.
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　　Bernanke, 50, is viewed as the dark horse. Little known outside academic circles before coming to the Fed board in August 2002, Bernanke has impressed veteran Fed watchers who have started to read his speeches carefully for insights into Fed thinking on a range of economic issues.
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　　Many believe that Greenspan will play a large role in choosing his successor. "I think that Greenspan will have an unusually large influence on the selection process given his close relationship with Vice President Cheney, going all the way back to the Ford administration," said David Jones, author of four books on the Greenspan Fed.
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　　Greenspan was President Ford’s CEA chairman and Dick Cheney was Ford’s White House chief of staff.

  T8 c$ A: c! x0 m' N; r  t　　"Greenspan has done a great job and weathered a lot of storms during his tenure at the Fed with only two recessions and both of them relatively mild," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s.

　　Greenspan became Fed chairman on Aug. 11, 1987, when he was picked by President Reagan to succeed Paul Volcker. In June Greenspan started his fifth four-year term as chairman. He has let it be known that he does not intend to serve past the end of his current term and separate 14-year term on the Fed board, which ends Jan. 31, 2006.


　　据美联社11月28日报道，格林斯潘担任美联储主席一职已经整整18年了，任何人想要续写格林斯潘任期内的成绩并非易事。但是，仍然有很多人对此跃跃欲试。
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$ d$ v( g( j* b6 |* X9 X　　与11月2日总统大选之前相比，美国政府内部和华尔街所关注的美联储主席候选人人数减少了一半。随着民主党总统候选人约翰·克里的落败，同是民主党人的前财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾成为新一任美联储主席的可能性实际上已经被排除了。
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4 o* r$ R5 r5 s( B, b* ?; Y　　人们把更多的目光投放在了共和党人身上——他们是曾任里根政府经济顾问委员会主席的哈佛大学经济学教授马丁·费尔德斯坦、曾任小布什政府经济顾问委员会主席的格伦·哈伯德、财政部副部长约翰·泰勒以及美联储货币政策专家本·伯南克。
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　　65岁的马丁·费尔德斯坦最被人们所看好。一部分原因是他的知名度在几位候选人之中最高。在哈佛大学授课时，他成绩卓著；1982年到1984年，他担任经济顾问委员会主席一职，这个职位也是格林斯潘曾经担任过的，这是格林斯潘迈向美联储主席的关键一步。
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) L, B+ V& k% d% [) u　　候选人名单中最年轻的是46岁的格伦·哈伯德。评论认为他也很有竞争力，因为他是布什总统减税政策的坚定支持者。
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　　57岁的约翰·泰勒在调到财政部之前，斯坦福大学的执教生涯使他成为了知名的货币专家。泰勒创造了著名的“泰勒法则”，该法则用简单的计算公式提供了联邦基金目标利率的计算方法。

0 e1 a0 @9 e* E9 v* \　　50岁的本·伯南克则被看作是一匹可能爆冷门的黑马。在伯南克2002年8月成为美联储董事会成员之前，他的名字在学术圈之外鲜为人知。不过，他关于美国一系列经济问题的看法已经开始引起了人们的关注。

/ L3 x' n1 X3 J) `　　美联储前成员莱尔·格拉姆利说：“对于现在仍有四五名候选人停留在人们的视野里，我并不感到惊讶。布什总统要考虑诸多方面的问题，因此将目光锁定在某一个人身上尚为时过早。”

　　很多人相信，现任美联储“掌门人”格林斯潘在选择自己的接班人一事上应该扮演着重要角色。曾写过关于格林斯潘的4本书的作者戴维·琼斯说：“我认为格林斯潘在继任人问题上拥有特别的权利，因为他同副总统切尼关系相当密切。”格林斯潘曾任福特总统政府的经济顾问委员会主席，而切尼当时则是福特政府的白宫办公厅主任。
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) y" `; a7 Y( v& f　　美国著名的评级机构标准普尔公司(Standard & Poor’s)首席经济学家戴维·伟斯说：“格林斯潘成绩卓越，他经历了无数次经济风暴和危机，在其任期内仅发生过两次相对轻微的经济衰退。”
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　　1987年8月11日，格林斯潘被里根总统任命为新一届美联储主席，接替保罗·沃尔克的职位。今年6月，格林斯潘开始了自己在主席位置上的第5个4年任期。但格林斯潘可能会提早结束在美联储的任职，因为他作为美联储理事的14年任期将于2006年1月31日结束。