Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
0 ~2 D; n' e& i! O& jIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
1 f% o( f0 k& Y  S, Q1 Z/ o, e! wNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

6 Y( R4 e, W: r+ w* Z( ^Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

, C/ |3 h$ N* Q" O( f0 F5 gOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
2 F% J5 S, L# Y
4 z4 V/ O0 a# `% U9 t6 G/ g' M6 s+ xAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

, F1 A" f" [* i, jJul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
( V* I# _, t& s, X) i$ A& j- @ 410,000
- `- z. O" Z# [4 Z& r 320
28
31%

4 @+ K" q# Z2 gJun 2007
' D2 k) x$ T) J+ G NA
2 h/ K2 W& Z, o7 t1 J& [  V4 L 2661
/ ^! y6 ^+ J  u: ? 1011
" i8 m! _& f% N7 M) K 442,817
409,000
% N0 }9 Y! I- v& M 328
22
3 ^8 [" Z; ~; k/ L 38%
4 \/ L. C5 h. w3 ]; q$ m
May 2007
NA
2288
5 _# x. B$ q5 Z' V- y& b% } 1261
* W5 h& P6 L! t; U$ A1 {8 p 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
. t; Q3 I# m( f- p这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
- d& i8 A" r) U  f" R+ v- u存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

9 b/ o2 k: ^, z# O# O) B" i
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  |4 k4 B# a1 k) g+ [% r2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
  z- H1 }8 S" K7 ~4 o8 @0 v3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

( i0 s& a; I# o- c3 i# o1 p
! J, v2 Q0 g2 N! L$ ~& v9 B) L( z8 O呵呵，太不专业了吧。
; n% [) ^" @0 I; g3 ]: _! S
8 o0 M+ H5 C  V0 g& U! b新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

% f! ^$ O0 `6 K3 k$ ~  d: R1 E就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
5 t+ Z* W5 ]" n, }- O- A# O8 W
" z* I( t  r; b! V1 x# I这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
3 w0 v! T% m. h0 f* MDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

$ S+ h6 U9 E$ h% G
2 ^+ N5 ]9 ~% V# _  Y

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
+ L, l$ J0 W6 M1 v# }Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% H8 G* C# T; T

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( o+ V8 f9 F6 V7 wHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
! D* W$ U/ _; s3 W2 J1 }7 e$ D6 Fgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
5 I0 s( |0 o" y* F4 D, Z: jIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
1 p2 B. V' K4 h; o# FHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
4 X3 [) Q0 {( k& F! p+ j$ h0 nEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

8 b) s+ E7 J' `& \) n, eQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
- |, t8 Y. r5 O  |
8 [* c3 |3 h  B. C0 t3 G
1 f. Q' }! Y: X2 `4 J- K$ d" CI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

9 P& {: n. y& p5 w2 _

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  E. V( @6 k& I6 L' y2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
# g' h1 }+ b" l# A% Z
2 w1 M0 e; R9 G! K- h* g$ e
" z% ^8 o6 |6 @, Y! L- f+ `# t$ n6 r7 ~
5 r2 S& b) i& U只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。