Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) ?4 x0 ?' ?7 n' l: ~Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
, K4 a" J$ S, X  c- Q
# L) K) a' }/ ~! s1 g; E  HDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

6 B0 I: n$ h) z& SSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
- v- I4 e% o, d& b
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
. ^* H* p8 E1 K; C* `1 F
Jul 2007
NA
  ~+ V5 |( w- A$ n 2328
9 m% o2 q. K8 T8 v( ^0 e 717
442,752
8 c. q& l. i3 f* b 410,000
( O5 X% w0 j1 ^; V/ Y; b  ~3 ~ 320
* a# P, @/ i+ j$ d! n' K 28
: e2 q) S4 Y7 D 31%

! t" K( ?  D' U' E% s' Q( ]Jun 2007
' L" D& d, e2 q: B1 @0 G NA
2661
. i+ C7 A% ^- U5 o5 d% ] 1011
) o$ q1 _7 o. Y- y. i5 z 442,817
409,000
328
8 y; Z$ I6 [  j+ h; L2 j 22
2 m: l7 V& e9 |" a% C0 P8 l 38%
+ l$ V! _* k$ g# u0 {5 U
May 2007
NA
4 D6 B4 F4 [6 ] 2288
1261
3 t8 a) y( I* L0 b 451,216
; \9 Y; U8 q8 [; W 415,000
3 ~: I+ Q1 p: @- p2 d 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
! L) l1 O4 o, w# _( y鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
0 V: F/ C- \2 E存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
- R" T/ S6 |0 S) v6 a* a6 \1 o鉴定完毕！

8 j5 L! `7 p1 _
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 Q7 [2 F* R3 d. t! c2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
0 g2 s, E& d  |: T存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
/ p& K1 s, v1 F" N
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
+ a. N& l, [  H0 C
1 F7 H% Z6 ^- X. ~0 F" `. C3 W" o: ^6 w就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
& D2 v9 o: m( O
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
" l9 a7 D4 T# k0 C" u% TDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

) W, [7 ^1 C* D' i' N% V

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
- m" Y  n! [( `' z; m; @; G" @Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

" ^3 N5 k" a! @. l$ U

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
; [1 c/ t6 A2 Y, d, z6 \Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
" Y& a5 `7 a2 V8 M4 g' f" gHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
6 G% J' _9 j  WIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
- r: s% @$ _# `6 D5 `How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

* b' b- B/ {9 I1 f
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
: j; j5 b$ v$ k1 I' }. Z( FEdmonton Single Family Home
; i) j. a' E. p1 c5 \# \MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

5 L1 R/ V5 g% P5 e) Z
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

# _  {# ?4 ~1 v  c8 K

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
" G9 A2 e  A; N% T2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
4 T4 _2 d6 t) ]1 f( ?) }0 C5 G" ~3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

+ \1 ~' B% u) k' H2 C1 p! M
9 S  Y# p- W+ o) P! J下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
& l, D4 l9 u. A1 i  U
) ^$ |0 I3 Q4 }) S1 L* p' _8 B5 P

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。