Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
1 k+ x3 h# F+ j* jMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
+ e& T8 L- d& [+ X% p7 aIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
: k& f) c5 H6 b0 V) KNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
0 g* ~7 X% o+ `( b; k, g' p3 S! C
7 U: I% f% @) ~9 u; I+ I! ~/ kSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

6 u. \) N+ X( K# b' e0 ~Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
/ S3 r, s* I# w7 X9 Y# W; H# i NA
2328
6 W5 f. C  G! H! J 717
442,752
. ^6 L+ i( l; K2 H' j, B 410,000
320
# ^) K1 O9 S. F6 d 28
3 C4 R8 c, W: y 31%
$ u+ Q4 W( H) e3 A5 l
Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
3 R- Y6 Z: B& M1 g 442,817
409,000
6 m. [9 J3 x: U4 R# O5 r 328
22
38%

& ?, \) e( G0 ]- }4 P2 j- dMay 2007
3 O1 u+ g8 T4 S' v) z' c NA
& a( t7 T) U5 u& \% _, p" j 2288
1261
451,216
' n8 r4 l" Q) ~0 x 415,000
8 w! O3 _( M& D1 C 322
1 Q1 m9 m  @0 {# e; C0 Y5 J 19
. Q' \; X9 F7 {+ c! | 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' h' Q; `% F" d/ i- P5 D鉴定完毕！

3 K+ d! O1 @  t# }用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
, b( X+ P2 `& C% B, M2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
/ t5 V# X% ^6 M, r( K4 M存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

0 H" r6 O8 A5 ~0 |0 V呵呵，太不专业了吧。
  w5 o( |* ?+ ~
4 g, \6 }, [" m新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
" z2 z7 Z) J" K7 L
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

2 g, [/ n5 M9 ~. q这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
- c$ z, N9 Q7 p, Z, t7 g  RDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

4 P' v; l8 G4 n# a9 Y; P0 B
. x6 i6 k: c. S' _0 g

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

6 \2 z2 a7 s1 U9 u

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( L+ }* g  T4 O9 L, eHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
. W9 r5 n  V# j8 W7 [: BThat is what i say half full or half empty.
( p! C% s8 m  A* [) ]good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( `1 K  l' r4 DHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
8 V8 E) L- Q+ k; Z9 b, R# PEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

/ r8 Y' X- L' Z, e+ C  r. N
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

' [& A, C" \- U2 T9 _

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 N2 N$ E. G5 L$ i0 x2 b9 S2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

& [8 |  g! Q7 i0 e2 @5 b6 z: V
$ j- M5 p4 [  v) v& @) R6 v下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
4 H6 l/ w/ Y/ Y9 v2 K0 t( r* D看来，观察days inventory 更重要。