Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
, t* V3 K) ]8 yIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
! l0 V4 _. R! {4 j1 _* }) ~Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

& e$ l: x2 ]! Q: y! c% a% B( P3 uOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
( j5 ?6 `- ]% s) `2 f! d
, V6 @6 [6 s/ l  g1 X, \. |Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
0 B( R; ^- b% k# F# _* f
Jul 2007
NA
# @; z% x9 O4 w 2328
6 d0 W+ {2 ?5 c7 Z; S( L 717
/ R: p! J( Q, c6 ]: f4 ]1 F 442,752
% A( }/ P- h! |9 m9 f& _ 410,000
9 }, Y5 K7 x$ O1 Q. t# A 320
28
31%
2 a) ~- d) k+ \( O7 C5 t$ ?' \
* e& e2 ], r2 r" l5 k, V0 m2 V  qJun 2007
NA
( N) ]* L; s$ {& K 2661
1011
442,817
& u, B+ G; j7 W4 V8 X" r$ U( _ 409,000
* {9 w4 B/ m9 q' J: G 328
% Q  |: i9 `9 D) |8 C, R; O" n! b 22
38%
& S+ T% a3 u2 t* `0 b" i: D* ]: |7 j7 @
May 2007
9 F! n9 @1 N3 G3 _ NA
! K2 \, _1 x. x: r 2288
1261
451,216
- }! k2 r' Z9 g  n+ I6 d 415,000
322
19
; f0 X4 z' f) a; F" m 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
, y" V6 b( o+ ?) ^9 c: s这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' a1 E5 F& |2 b5 j  _0 x8 m存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
/ U6 d* h7 L, \- a/ h4 P7 v" ~0 s鉴定完毕！

. M) A# E# N8 {7 T
* @$ q6 {: j# \/ Q; d0 v用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
. s+ Q1 ~; Q8 Z: @* A; \0 r
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

, b. f6 n" C* n就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

/ J9 q! a4 o4 f! H; D这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
: P, n8 Z' Z+ m2 C  hDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

- c! ], r" g* K. s7 o: i" A+ o

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% }+ i" |1 n+ e4 |: X

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
& G$ {9 W( U" b+ z$ ^7 I" G6 PThat is what i say half full or half empty.
  ~7 S& A* A6 E# w7 X3 hgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
( a( H3 B+ P) }' @/ b' E/ T  dMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
- g1 _) R# a( b, b2 U; n8 |: a' FNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

7 S- X' F0 ?; o1 v  {
/ Q* D" n' L: L! j/ d: wI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

# S0 E2 G3 c1 ~3 v0 w9 `

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  c- i2 n5 I- O/ j  z2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
) k8 N. }: h) _. W; u0 b3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

/ |: U5 Z# m$ u

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
6 b% {9 I  s% W0 ?3 a' C看来，观察days inventory 更重要。