Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
3 U% h3 G! y0 n4 d+ ZIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
7 y) g  b  q$ w$ dNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
' Y8 M, a( ~$ x: R% @8 ~7 c
& l3 A( a1 p- B6 p1 yDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
- w6 ]& ^7 a9 T7 s" R2 P9 L
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

9 T0 ^9 G! N! }1 m, r$ ?Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
2 F' [$ g/ I; x, o& e# J
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
+ f, y9 G! R. U* O; O
Jul 2007
NA
) F' J7 y. g7 k' e 2328
717
442,752
/ {- {9 k) w' {( o 410,000
% y6 Y6 d$ W0 \. K5 C8 D 320
28
31%
. |4 O+ u: g0 t0 @- N- p
: {, W% A7 d5 Y" mJun 2007
NA
2661
+ d& b$ a9 F" S( o/ F 1011
442,817
1 t% r, k: k  |: X8 |) @ 409,000
328
22
0 P& B$ s, x: }) w 38%

May 2007
NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
+ q. q  B* ], Y% c, ] 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; G  H; t% w# L6 @鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
' w1 P. I9 c* k: k$ t9 e6 y# b这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
9 d) ?: b0 p/ h% B存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
" y# f; Q( \3 a; t# k* d3 D1 T鉴定完毕！

5 m! @. y6 c5 D( B8 e- C
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  {7 \$ B+ m: o1 M- Z8 p9 ?4 \& O* p2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
  d$ M* L, n, [" e1 h/ _+ c. ^存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
  M, w& \' b8 v1 L  B& d鉴定完毕！

9 b9 F  N* z2 Q  y% b2 t8 f$ X! Y
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

$ d5 G4 i9 _  d) @0 [1 s. n就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
4 _$ f0 N; ]8 c1 n0 C, e
  I3 x& }1 `; u( I' `这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
; t" a  J0 s+ ADon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
) O9 {5 M. e1 x/ FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& v# F6 e8 V9 N8 j

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
2 A5 u8 Q5 j8 ?2 K0 OThat is what i say half full or half empty.
" B1 p5 k" s( |' R2 f# K# s7 i( a: ngood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
7 [, j! e; E" T4 o2 {2 gIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
; }/ e2 E* g8 qHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
! Z; B; w4 z2 S5 D6 s, pMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
7 [" K9 ?/ L; Z; p( c( i/ |Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
' Q2 n. t. a% S+ J0 d+ z+ ^+ ]Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

' F, Z8 o% R- Q; c; dQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


* I/ k2 \, w2 R. r. S( o4 [+ j; @I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

6 i, L/ L' U1 X& O4 y

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
! u; v: z% X, U( [8 d8 J/ N2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
3 P, I: s2 m0 U0 C
2 X: U) A* W7 d& X

4 }* ^5 R/ p& n3 J. H# Z  Y- T只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。