Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
4 F" G9 O' a' s, c* \3 FMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
3 e" x1 I4 A' VIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
* E+ p8 T1 K) |! {- V% ^Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

. F2 W' ~4 D2 V) |2 R" a; l# ^Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

3 {* i1 t9 i: p; M" b( OOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
6 a, A. l- B" V+ v  N
, y3 i& {2 j  J# t; o, ~4 cSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
6 i. L4 ]/ a' M- H$ b6 \
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
" Z7 w# H7 h+ S2 G5 `! i* D
5 ?0 O! v/ A4 _5 r5 |, hJul 2007
# S: F; s" {  G% R& ` NA
  S/ W; \! w+ X' b5 s 2328
! d, _+ z* A5 s5 l9 a/ D! @" P 717
442,752
( y. z) b: k! F. \- h# z! B 410,000
7 y- c, X! y0 n5 }. s- I 320
28
31%

, i; d$ v' q  R7 j+ E4 K" JJun 2007
NA
2661
* P* R" Q5 _1 H( {7 m 1011
442,817
# i3 n/ K6 R  @) N, i/ w# `7 A 409,000
328
0 z: ^  F$ [  Y; f, | 22
  O" G' W4 R7 t: K, d 38%

+ }( s9 y, i  ]4 Y/ _6 m) z+ hMay 2007
" `5 N! h6 k# y7 O* @" V NA
2288
! b7 @2 v7 k# j- q; i  r/ } 1261
$ R' z, `' o, j6 j 451,216
415,000
0 E3 G  V: m0 f& G 322
19
) A; N' c1 k* n, J$ c$ k 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
: T8 V: Y/ l5 W& P这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

5 Q7 P6 `9 @* m. L8 O7 z
& `$ b; `" L! N& d4 W8 e用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
3 ^4 {4 V& x3 G( c存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
; l1 D5 e8 x; x+ |5 }
# j/ L7 i6 t8 p+ e( S9 m新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

. q  c) p2 t( H就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
# P, Q" E. Z6 Z, D0 R" [( WDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& n: l, N& {8 a' x% r7 w
5 v4 o6 v' l1 _1 ^9 y2 ?, I

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
- X' }" L4 |) e9 SHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
* L' f+ w4 \9 b1 [; f- n# |2 [0 GThat is what i say half full or half empty.
* t5 J: f& Z9 R6 K3 x5 l9 bgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

; C: `, v9 _% l
/ C6 Q1 @" K+ [# W% \- e+ m0 _I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
8 |3 Z: [% [8 eEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
2 ^6 q8 A# n' o3 Y+ h2 `" wIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
6 j8 {3 H! q- U9 |) V7 ENote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

  Z5 V3 H# u+ Z" w; D! e, @QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
, V. w/ Z0 \& r# O

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
, f% z6 g" [% v  l  x/ i! Z0 F1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 }; k: [$ V& U+ j( b2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
+ v  T1 i. t9 X0 |7 t/ G( s3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

& l4 {8 a' ^& [% H
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

4 n* d# m4 a3 o7 ]) a

3 F0 Q, E5 I# f! J/ D: B0 k只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。