Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
) ]" N# j9 k% y7 yMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
6 i; V0 I0 V7 ]3 E, b+ L: K4 nIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
2 L: u( p5 J! s4 H" y7 G4 ^7 x
% M+ w0 U& [3 z, @* C' iDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

% `4 p. g9 B1 N- K7 C1 Z/ LOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
% r- g* V  }, V/ e2 F
3 {& _1 b; T0 P; mSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
" H" _& a( {8 _/ ?- R6 ?
6 F% _3 w6 a- e4 c0 C+ ]; L* R3 OJul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
) s$ V9 A1 k% Y0 v& q$ j; @ 410,000
/ d! Y, e: e: E3 K1 }( E# U* z 320
: B" }& p2 U/ s" P, P8 ` 28
31%

$ F% H" L% ~4 nJun 2007
NA
2661
1011
, R) Z" S& W: [7 @" P 442,817
5 |: ~/ B, d9 W8 J+ I  A: E! S 409,000
328
22
$ R9 s- X! K# O+ `- V- r 38%
" i* i9 v  g& B& @
1 Y, C4 T! Y3 W( ~( ^% KMay 2007
1 ?: \; M: v2 r: k NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
6 _) P8 c  v* k' h8 a4 | 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
9 L% r. _6 \8 f' _3 R$ S$ S7 L存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) `! z5 r/ f5 r$ |鉴定完毕！

" y3 w2 b8 ~/ @  R
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
8 ]; ~* J) V* a( l% c: c存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
% f1 x+ e; y& Y1 O% B. u6 \. `鉴定完毕！

9 w& b/ G+ S8 ]# x4 G  P: X
8 L' t  l' w" h. E1 e8 V% s! Y呵呵，太不专业了吧。
2 v( \) a$ g4 W! g. E
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
. o, u% j3 U9 J9 u) }9 c; u
# T/ f7 H$ Z" k( ~( e就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
. J6 M5 f# w* kIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

: Q7 H8 U  v  m6 ]" ]7 G& V) }I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
  M% h% s* K+ t1 K5 U+ C$ OMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) ]" \* ]+ h! t* B9 U5 |Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

$ ~0 |( G- T6 o# C2 ^: S7 c0 s6 @
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

6 d9 S9 }  s: [( C5 h+ A; L% k, C

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
6 ?! @) i# E; ^8 m# X5 f1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
8 |3 I  `) T8 w) ^+ v* B" |$ z2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
7 V5 m6 G* g* u2 v% s3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
: _0 {8 |  Y# q$ y- Y  {

& X4 p: G% l  h% H
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
: f6 @9 J4 N6 ?. ^+ T1 o, ]) B看来，观察days inventory 更重要。