Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 v# E, Y0 i9 x; |, w) uMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
& b7 m/ e2 W3 Q
4 D1 D. v# j6 h, Q" Q2 I: NOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
7 o2 f& Q, m9 o" r' u3 Z6 r
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

0 h( Y7 j- n$ j  JAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
* ^/ t# r+ _# b1 u
Jul 2007
7 d1 K/ `: s- e, ]. V5 @ NA
2328
717
442,752
410,000
320
0 T4 I, M8 d( Y) u4 h. V) v: R* v1 f 28
. R5 A- I4 a  L! x 31%

- Q  i! G6 H0 P+ o4 K. bJun 2007
NA
6 s/ o9 |* }/ L9 F( _% p6 } 2661
1011
9 D# j$ r+ ^; z! N8 \( f 442,817
0 P  [5 I- v: ~* s6 A 409,000
! i* A( p6 r% b 328
" [. S% \  X0 n% c 22
38%
0 t9 M2 t8 y+ X8 _$ [% G
2 P  X, `9 V. _5 bMay 2007
) Z+ S+ B! S: [! f  F8 |1 z NA
5 D; a+ z4 a; \8 @ 2288
- u" O! S1 {# ?% a( B" A7 a 1261
6 U, d/ [& y8 |$ u& U 451,216
# s# f& _. w9 v  k+ U4 ^5 Q 415,000
322
1 g* ?; s# w0 E: N; }0 a2 n. d/ \ 19
# {" j9 p- ]6 G& j+ A, c7 _" \" U# U+ L 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
4 e( \5 h& {1 h0 O3 t; ^4 ~- F鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' u5 A; |9 U7 [存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 p! O1 p: J9 }$ R! \6 I鉴定完毕！

; W" Q0 I& S  y; S( c" J0 ?9 |用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
8 e+ Z, ]" G6 S" ^9 r$ \存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
- ~9 T0 Y' h" z6 z: E( i鉴定完毕！

8 l( s" l1 b. l2 |
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
, Y# P% R& Q8 C! |
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
5 V: g- _; Q5 P' l9 c
6 U9 i. `; I3 Y& h: c! W就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
) a$ x; H) J5 f# _
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

* ~% G; X( r, r' `) Y5 r

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
& Y; f" T* W7 D4 Z' q  @Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

: n% W8 t) ]3 @) K

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
6 `6 g" B+ p3 `$ u# F; Pgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
3 E: |1 e& V7 w: s$ m$ _In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
. x6 ?8 b) e$ e0 }# |. G" ]9 M$ Y  tIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
# _0 q) E9 N0 B8 X" ^1 u3 P* EEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
. k8 l* A. F* D) UIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
2 r$ V6 ~% o# S$ v% K0 ~' U( ANote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

9 l. Y0 V) _: NQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

; F: o5 c, x' P6 I
! Y+ ?8 X7 ~& yI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
$ K4 C. Z0 J: s' l8 t2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
" U3 `$ O$ W" R9 T, p3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

, {) J. f: f/ C' j4 N
3 [/ U' p9 i9 H/ z3 H$ m下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

! I- O$ h8 [+ _# P5 }9 x
  j/ x; ~0 G" F" i6 e
# S* P1 [! p) U3 x8 K4 B' ?7 Y6 S只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
2 [  n1 \) n  ^9 `) c. O; |4 u看来，观察days inventory 更重要。