Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
4 q# Q; T1 x5 Z* g: {4 h9 SNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

8 a$ G0 R+ J) \0 TDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
. B5 d- d; ~$ M' r1 h
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
# p0 r6 ~" ]+ e9 e5 D+ g
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
$ l1 z, d4 y1 F: d& X
Jul 2007
* k/ V9 Q5 f7 C* ` NA
2328
; B6 L1 u* }" _" t! k, v 717
& F) p4 `4 K9 ` 442,752
( S4 f# m8 r* Z  d 410,000
320
+ m( Y8 r/ e4 E  B# B1 p 28
31%
" F& |7 Z# H8 n$ S
: |8 T# {; Z/ s4 P7 s: {) V; iJun 2007
& j9 j  t& `2 c2 R" D/ O; R- @ NA
2661
1011
442,817
409,000
328
  l( J8 g6 M" Z* _' t 22
& Q& T; h+ S9 _4 s+ k! I0 H 38%
8 ]" O) h  w9 E9 I& }; I2 y
* g" D  `3 O3 o) j1 bMay 2007
NA
2288
' G' C- L" N% N% X* I6 ~' q4 i 1261
451,216
415,000
# q* i( f4 o; B8 } 322
; _4 \6 l# d' r  z0 n1 Y; I 19
! K* ]+ H7 m, V, a6 E, x 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
4 A( e& t! J, L这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
) l- \# R6 S1 L7 B* A存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

3 o& Z0 P& S. n3 n- i用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
/ b& a+ ?& p6 j( A9 b& a3 F2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
2 x7 l5 R! K( h' k存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

" a/ H' l+ x% g9 U, s2 j呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

; L% X- Z* z6 m) L- D, W就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' i& o* @* ?! J9 o  ^' G9 k  a

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
1 M8 `. V# p. a9 r/ x4 z" O2 O4 lThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

/ e: J" j. ]( _5 l: |: z  `5 _
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
0 |2 c3 q, p- E1 [MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
- g: a. H2 J/ U. M3 k7 VNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
9 s  C* Q! k& |! V& a
: i- E' X7 N( k; M
4 y/ F5 q9 A6 g' z1 s6 h& fI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
* i4 L; t/ v! a8 D  s3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

8 n7 h9 a9 ^" x6 g# A下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
0 f/ N1 l5 H' p( x4 L9 _
% u" u8 q! Q$ u: V
: b5 R5 G0 `# }1 d
$ K& q" |. |2 o+ e# p只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
) j. G7 \6 ?9 b- o& y  Z* `看来，观察days inventory 更重要。