Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
$ ?  e# M' x8 X: O2 `+ {9 \Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
6 R8 W9 `/ C0 S: R, V" rNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
" Z* A( t6 F1 V, R
+ Q" c' H8 h, ?- M8 VDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
6 Y% M/ M" B7 b
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
# e3 c& Z$ [9 ~0 H
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
( r7 B) ^, k3 u" g8 h
$ O6 [( k. \3 v5 _* G. GAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
. r) t" L% E8 K+ n NA
% {% M+ s% n) |: h, g4 S4 B 2328
1 U$ ]+ b' a% C& r0 j$ O6 U 717
( z8 `! y( O, p 442,752
7 w6 l: q: u# B6 \4 h 410,000
320
28
31%

Jun 2007
- v. K- @5 B; w NA
2661
/ O) U" Q! [- u/ y$ c3 N- r. D 1011
* _* b5 _" f5 _, R 442,817
# E# h& f  B3 ^  B8 ]* h 409,000
328
22
8 _% v- O# L6 G5 f  ^ 38%

May 2007
' o% g4 e% t3 L/ Q+ R. k7 ]* ~5 Q5 d NA
2288
1261
7 d1 ^5 K  s7 l* }- u, T3 b$ q2 K. v 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
( ^; D+ R! z5 b) [$ s这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
" W: K  X4 Q' y. O存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

- w. ^' U, F$ H/ y9 K
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 f$ c& ?/ C" ~' t6 |% N2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

' S6 U( f( Y# S: f0 d
% z* _4 R- S" ?呵呵，太不专业了吧。

& y! e$ x& ^+ J新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
) y0 X: T& B* f4 h$ R/ U! Q6 l. _
8 X8 r, m3 ?# I  V7 D4 }就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

# {8 k; S6 G1 t9 J& R! D0 m) }
  z+ [5 N; ]% a& X9 Z

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

6 d$ X* r7 \# z0 S# x' ~2 }! R

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 @1 Q3 i, d) a8 [% _" r. ^Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
! j. c8 x, B. B( \How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

- L2 U3 V1 G9 b* K8 _0 y! N: WI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
& ]* ]" q9 g: J0 ?: _! pMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
6 w+ H: M: p" ^9 NIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


( J2 q, m0 x# v+ X# P- C; JI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
2 D( |: s/ o; K) A6 ]1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
9 _+ M4 t: C8 X3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

8 _' D, B" X% l; a% x" p
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

3 V: y3 W4 p6 n" N; C, R  p% h; R

4 I) U0 N$ m- Q8 k" b2 M只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
& q9 Q' G9 d! N看来，观察days inventory 更重要。