Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 ~, I: j" ?* c9 p, @) ]. p% U. UMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
% g  g( b; o7 m! ~. u4 S/ |0 s) }Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

1 ^5 a, z& Q  W+ _; mOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

, T$ F9 o/ s( zSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
+ l  A( n4 M) m6 b: N8 J+ J* Z
. R" r/ R) `8 S: |9 k; E' s. CJul 2007
NA
2328
* Q' T; R* A4 `* i+ G: {$ B 717
1 h1 M: h9 [. W0 r' F6 D7 J 442,752
$ b* C  M6 _5 C 410,000
320
0 u: n9 _6 _2 q4 N 28
31%
/ m2 [! l4 {% S  N
Jun 2007
NA
2661
8 d/ D' @- ^! N9 G% r 1011
: A$ C$ K1 q5 |" _8 S 442,817
409,000
( u- t8 _3 d2 p! A1 \. C 328
22
, N, l$ Y2 Q" K$ [6 a 38%
9 D' c" T  A0 t
: A, l* q& S0 O1 TMay 2007
1 D( p4 J4 g; y; r  T* r+ @ NA
2288
3 G; \2 v2 m  W% x4 M. b2 G) ` 1261
7 b9 i& d8 h5 b8 k9 a4 O 451,216
415,000
9 `6 _- j* }5 g" S$ V- t" P 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 E4 P& W" M- {2 }+ x6 _鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
+ T7 F+ _* W! P5 \) `! a鉴定完毕！

1 l6 j% W, t7 f) P! C" C8 B用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
( x) p. ~; ?" |# u* D( r存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
% Z; g. O3 r5 o0 W, B% X3 `+ F6 G鉴定完毕！

! d' U. C' H9 N2 y呵呵，太不专业了吧。
# `; [+ V2 y: L) G. y
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
" ^/ y% z( [4 R  k
+ ~) I& G& E7 t就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
9 _8 S0 Y* e" N! H2 ^7 K
6 d# z( T( {1 }1 H- H6 \+ b! F这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

. w2 [+ Q3 E& p4 m2 `
! \1 D* y  @; q- @% S" ?

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
, S# g1 g+ L  i5 l4 F  X$ vIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
- K$ G; H/ t% X, D; UHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

! b. q0 B- j* a* c$ o4 i1 C
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
" g7 Q! v% r0 D4 n" I) yEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
0 X8 u' P  P" {+ j; `5 F' R6 VIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

2 y5 C# x- }3 t4 _& M7 q# N  ^
/ o9 T' `6 W% J( I$ N) CI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
0 x. L! C8 v+ k, v1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2 u9 U; P; i, E8 f: ~& X2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
1 {0 e5 Z; ~  _5 E) s* o3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

+ P  b5 F! O$ A- a5 G9 p
& z* W3 e; K; J+ i" {3 S/ a下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
4 o% I# ]+ M' [5 G1 f
2 H9 c  y# ]4 m$ j
$ Y' F' X) Z% A* h. w7 ~! [, i( ]
9 Q+ ~, V5 C8 F/ D只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。