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Oilsands an emerging global growth star
" a4 d4 a' p) {3 N8 Q( g9 v' wExxonMobil forecast predicts output of four million barrels a day by 2030
/ U6 E- e6 @6 G2 O+ j$ ?9 IGordon Jaremko, The Edmonton Journal
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7 y6 \' N: Z5 r; t( e& [EDMONTON - As oil leaps towards a new landmark high of $100 US a barrel, the world's top investor-owned producer has singled out Alberta as an emerging global star of production growth.
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( V! d% t4 Z2 e" t" s: QOilsands output will multiply fourfold to more than four million barrels daily by 2030, ExxonMobil Corp. predicts in a new international industry outlook report. And that forecast errs on the conservative side by projecting "fundamentals" of demand and supply trends instead of relying on prices to stay sky-high, ExxonMobil spokesman Allan Jeffers said Tuesday.) _% g7 O5 B& o
* |9 ?$ @' K) P6 \) U+ VOil jumped to $96.67 a barrel, up $2.69 in New York trading Tuesday on fears of global supply disruptions after storms battered North Sea production platforms and guerrillas attacked a pipeline in Yemen.
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7 H: Y k3 N' u4 s- y/ B$ y4 _Gasoline prices in Edmonton were 99.9 cents per litre at many stations on Tuesday.7 D2 T# a% x3 N+ E7 S8 b# w9 V
Larry Wong, The Journal# ]8 s9 n. a- h6 `
/ X1 J$ X* P7 wEdmonton refinery postings for Alberta output Tuesday ranged from $60.74 for low-grade heavy crude to $91.11 for premium oilsands synthetic production. The Canadian benchmarks are translations of international prices, adjusted for pipeline tolls and currency exchange rates.
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ExxonMobil's high oilsands expectations are realistic and reasonable, said Bob Dunbar, an Alberta industry veteran whose Strategy West Inc. specializes in the field.
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1 @4 i& U/ _8 y" Z" i# u5 iOutput from the northern bitumen belt would grow to six million barrels a day if all known projects were built on their announced schedules, Dunbar said. E2 B$ o) D' o8 `, r' F
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While no one believes the current spike will last, the looming new record high is seen as confirming that a new era of premium prices has arrived to stay, he said.- R. [( O' |+ Z& g
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When the oilsands rush began in the late 1990s developers only relied on markets to stay in a range of $20 to $30 a barrel. To be profitable, new projects today count on sustained averages in a higher band of $60 to $70, Dunbar estimated. |
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