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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 7 w# y: P" C' F+ A& D& G3 j
8 b% L9 s1 w! W* K
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
2 |+ z# V4 m% f7 D1 P3 v' ^% v$ e TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
1 R/ p% U4 @6 S1 P; Ncommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
0 {1 x4 K9 m; O0 ^5 k, fas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging) M, b5 V! \9 H1 d! x. ^! U% U: Z
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
0 j3 ~$ j" Z' p+ V, i# h Eand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more X( `6 _0 Q J9 w3 ~
upbeat.
' i; v! K# v1 U+ k# q0 g Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded) k' B' q/ A! s/ h( }
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects- Y$ ]8 z, w Q2 }
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real8 F5 k4 {8 X' I3 Z' [
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
( @" }5 P6 s4 J" k4 N" ^representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.' V" L+ r9 d9 ?' j7 [
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world2 B1 p$ x( C$ s( n* a* s, e
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
5 W l' v% Y% u' h* {+ B According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian& Z0 ]/ {& r9 K& L1 d
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
1 m' v4 T: h3 \& u) venvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
' p) ]% s @7 b( Wbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
( W+ b9 ^$ \) i8 {& Hhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
2 ` T% ]1 h0 }$ R' R. k4 i According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
! H0 d; t! H7 [7 @* @* }border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game: Y& p* O; M2 T l" ^
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey2 d0 m5 w% o7 a; F
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
1 \, Y# P, k; X% z0 Gcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be# n5 v$ v% P! m
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
& e1 g/ `. j7 F, L R, ] The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian9 I1 Q4 h& {% x8 B8 q. Y% \
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
/ P& {3 S# @3 M- R( \+ dcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
3 O) x a: z4 |% u3 l; {1 Fdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
7 N. c: N+ s! C' F+ R/ U& Q* v, ?* lespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
o6 g1 E+ B$ w @0 [development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
" X" u; P# u5 `6 }- a* C5 y- Vresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to+ m" p/ C) ^- r/ ^9 k6 F
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
. i6 @& Y$ `# A8 {1 L( Qsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
8 E$ {! A' A, n* }) \7 I Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
; Q' _6 ?9 F4 r8 P4 v- ltenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
& X) }2 I0 F. `metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push6 i7 k* t+ ?0 t* S& Q9 s
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting5 I6 y. B p0 ?
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,( @$ }$ E; b, f8 r
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental: N4 `# v4 W$ a" P
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
5 W0 {6 n' L: s( R9 ^. b5 v' R9 awestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing/ ~4 Y1 y; f" I# f: r
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into) B8 Q& h1 L4 r0 _. m$ H
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development! G( j0 J l0 }. o! k" H5 m
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.8 n* c B) w/ O: \% c2 |
# G! [' {1 z# G5 r) Z Canadian Markets to Watch# M8 \( k& J3 i0 o5 |& {5 \
a2 Q0 q3 A3 v* D" G
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central5 _# M/ T/ `) g6 S# w2 x. f0 X/ ~
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
* o% {2 }2 t$ }" h0 bneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back2 @2 p4 O/ D4 W/ X" ~
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in7 e" t/ t" [. a; F- x& m
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
' N2 r) M$ d+ U3 l9 s- Kprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
& p5 _; F6 a) V5 {7 _" twest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
% X7 Q) n z* uprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
4 n- w, u. _$ ], h. iwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
( S) o' e& W7 ?2 @4 K) Y [" M iToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
' l) p* K/ X4 |/ y* w% Q4 a4 ?ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
' y# V; j$ x! c
. U4 C. J+ L( M6 l1 l Calgary/Edmonton; a- l; Q0 {. R' ?
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one+ ~& _ Q! G6 T
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
% X8 Q/ y. s; {# _* I) q, Y. abuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,# z1 u! v9 m; L1 h3 F* F
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
! e) [* S6 {+ K1 h C6 {Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale" t- H& T# s/ J
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
& B# P/ j4 N* u. CCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays5 F9 o! F; ]+ @$ Z `+ S
strong, this market will continue to do well.
' ~2 d$ u; u* L1 {9 B$ K; J- n' p3 c+ W( n: b* ]8 p! J
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
; ]2 i; o; C" g- D1 y! Bbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 e9 Z& R% C7 ]% {) Rreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the! V" O7 N" X- e0 [
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a$ `0 ^ ^2 b* j. i0 [
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy5 d! _; ^/ [! y8 Y5 b% d& l
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%. X' [, _# C( c# f$ `
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%$ p/ }, N/ P p. X- ?) O" ~
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
( @, N" s [# ~* mgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and7 I6 @4 [+ x# A
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is# f* B& q: x# \- }
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
( g/ N. A ^2 i* o8 _9 I5 G; windustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.; s, [ i* b; B7 D7 K( _6 U
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
! @- F Z. m( ] e% m; Y' A3 hfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
3 C% o. l' J& c2 [' d( iApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys." c% x7 l$ s! i' ?5 w
( F( m( m7 X, L" p: ] Montreal
+ `, b4 H2 h8 M4 [& G# P
+ ^ f i9 S' H- W, ` Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
9 t1 [7 C. H/ G% H2 E! I }growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up8 N1 M- b. L0 g5 ^7 n
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in& j4 A8 @6 K7 ], d1 |. L8 }+ @
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
7 `* G5 x# |1 a* rsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors# e; j$ H2 h, m9 ?; G
higher as a "hold" recommendation.( x+ E) |. D [# ]
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years6 J y6 b, w; o
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy0 x/ e: b$ L! q/ `+ V* L$ ~" s N
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos, U3 t3 U. |3 s9 h& u3 Y
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
" E# k% L' B+ v0 ^' Koverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current, ~* ^- D3 ]+ `$ F- S7 d6 H% x) {
prices."$ m' A1 p3 \: @7 g4 I
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
# E" Y" a& g: s- `- L# g9 i( ?www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.2 `: u% n( T3 T r4 x& u8 G% z1 L. S
. l: Z* @' {3 D: C* [
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
1 j j9 Z. J, l+ o# N: j- j- M; w L. F3 x# V0 S& x9 _, G
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
: r! l9 Z' I& Q% v8 utax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its. f9 W1 n2 j# a3 ?* [' f3 Z
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries4 L( M" Z6 R0 c/ v# b8 t& i
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
- c0 @: P+ m1 G* o. e! Hfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
) V$ ?6 Y" ^) \excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
# P! Q+ w1 [: D2 Qrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the$ h/ z- f, i' v" S: p! w" Y
country.
3 {1 c4 P# K; k5 [ "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario/ Z M& i; w) B( @% p
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
/ l. D' n8 `, O, s2 yPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
1 P* N( h: O% e4 @2 W3 d2 Deach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
) ]0 x6 C {4 {* u- y$ a. ~( b' v9 i, r& N7 |
About the Urban Land Institute8 T. W6 _ T+ J4 J
' j7 o7 u+ \1 X0 T# D$ R/ q3 \1 `6 e
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
$ x" J- D" W! [; B/ q( L# Rresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
9 T) ~1 t/ X: S* o7 tleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
1 H( e) j7 y) h) s1 athriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
, u( X. y! Q% V+ l( `than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development; S8 U: e- k; \ ~- b
disciplines.
% y- J* l5 ~9 U7 G w The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
3 o' }! G$ [5 sWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
, V- L! G: f& G8 W; v! ^ k( N- ICouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
0 d1 O% n! o2 g( j4 l* jnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be' W+ ?# _: e# N3 n
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,+ O) M- x( l7 G+ W$ P2 p# W
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
/ n& o( D9 E; R9 EHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,2 L G! }# y; h
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
3 N: q1 {* E* R3 \' D9 }" Ycall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on9 v- H2 K$ ^; L
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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+ L6 Y7 a: M% D3 W! s! W7 j/ T; h: u
. O6 [6 F7 i7 [5 Q! `; x$ A5 ?) E8 P1 cFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
. n; i4 B, K4 q* _0 b( C(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
" g" k w- z; _2 s o7 F4 I, Khttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html6 J8 j5 K( e* z- l; t/ L% r- `
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