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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
1 m" [- a, x4 \. { ~! U6 s TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US3 u1 m' ~: h* t
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern$ ]3 q- ~$ ]7 Z" Q9 p
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging+ k `0 I p1 G1 ]& b+ I8 F! d% @
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)5 [7 i! _5 B6 @' A' z# s& A
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more. \. q3 S: p& ?1 m' e
upbeat.) \; Q8 K |- p, }" ?" u
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded0 s7 |5 }2 |- F t
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" a ?, u/ S/ }5 Ointerviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
0 h4 Q; \9 `# m: Kestate experts, including investors, developers, property company' A8 G- Z' h4 e+ V! w
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
2 I. M k+ D& f$ p ~# NOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
, {) J% _5 P/ p- u+ y: N3 y9 Cincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
, |; g( S' k2 Q5 G* @- m$ ?5 P According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian u5 b, @1 I* \: D9 [6 G# @4 m
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
: B- B, C! @; N& z* Z9 wenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
/ T( d8 i2 c" b8 o9 b, Hbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record# g* Y; f9 s% _# A
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
0 A a- Z1 L' ?1 y; [7 F5 e7 l0 x According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the6 z+ o5 m4 `: }% R' P- Q; y
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game+ E" m7 v8 }0 s$ X
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
$ y* Y. L$ o* _- } P' n& Iremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
+ m4 Z6 Y, h* d. A X' P6 acorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# M l0 u. a7 h2 X3 G/ f7 f+ qvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
. u) ~$ }8 w( [) n3 {0 N. w The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian+ b' `+ h5 `$ M. n8 @0 R! H" F
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by, F5 ~; J# b+ w F# }4 u' M1 g
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land5 G0 \5 g) U. @; V" _0 S
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
" H8 R0 ?" I7 S1 p0 Hespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating9 h; P3 f7 h/ H$ O" T* t4 N" U! `
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
. K9 k( E" c5 dresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to5 m7 h6 V/ ^( R- m5 Z
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and4 \( y2 R) p2 d8 y' A2 t2 J9 o
single-family housing looks overpriced.
. ?) S. X/ i2 L( ?* E Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
. i0 H) ] t) L1 [7 m) mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
" a |0 U$ U1 H S0 M- @8 gmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push: N" N. P9 \! a8 G% p8 x1 t6 q9 [/ K
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
- h+ T/ L5 s1 V* Mnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
1 A3 U4 S4 \& z: fand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental+ r: T% Y# a4 F( ~$ y! T# \
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary! t5 ]4 n# z1 B
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
# B+ k. ?5 C9 p$ [. l* bshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
- U" Z0 C$ W3 I- Hthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development/ y0 I. m$ z, h8 ?1 S5 X; R
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.6 m- x( e+ |3 n v; x* q6 d
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Canadian Markets to Watch" E* X: ~: l+ {5 J
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
6 ~' s* P, G4 F% Jcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour/ @ ^: x3 H2 Z9 d6 ~; q# t* b
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
6 M( K: \: h2 F* i" b- kinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
7 I- `$ w. e+ a' q0 f! p* m+ X5 B, hdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical, |. W) C9 U9 b
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out( w2 H* U2 [' F) I" G& K% N
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
# s! s1 W7 M# N( s2 a# r* Jprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain# }6 Q3 _" @8 h9 l1 J: {3 Y( I, }/ T9 U7 o
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
% ]4 Q$ y. A5 S; cToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high' _) A9 Q* l4 P
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one" y' B: f/ a# |5 U
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a- p5 M! d9 c0 a% z4 T& A
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
4 h, X; K f$ [/ ^48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
4 C" i8 @: t: q( \Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
1 R1 Q2 i3 ?" g3 T( f; C4 U6 _Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the+ B# a: {" E6 O1 S- e# g! L2 L
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
/ L7 {; H% N' ]strong, this market will continue to do well.
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+ @; H! V( c/ P* S9 \; k Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is( K; L$ X4 e& M/ F
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
8 A1 r4 z6 X) Q+ qreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
% z: m# ~( k: {/ Vmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a+ d2 o4 |# x; }4 V4 B9 W9 o
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
2 p4 d" O) [0 Frecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
' D& c7 N$ h c3 |for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%8 s3 U* ], M- }5 m5 }
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very1 t% ]8 T* y4 }" q8 X1 Y
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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! }7 v7 g9 |4 f1 s Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
' D4 J% [4 c4 }" c1 Cmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is$ P: @- O: t' ~/ Y6 @
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
, z" G0 g* C' ]industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum./ J, ?3 E" E) V9 ?3 W
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
! f* q8 j! R# |5 |1 Mfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and4 {, y* y$ l) ]5 h
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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, `. [5 t. @* ]) d! ?2 M& Q' D Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
5 S/ P5 J# `% r) mgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up0 @4 A- Q, q# v+ c F3 C* q: M
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in/ L1 E! P v: q, q
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
3 w A8 U: x$ nsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors& g1 Q( S* y: G
higher as a "hold" recommendation." Q' {( q4 Q8 M5 p5 H9 b6 s! P+ M* b
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years! a& a# C1 e6 N# F
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 L: r7 e- r: y6 imarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos1 N9 Z/ @1 |$ V4 O7 D
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest2 f! P2 [) V* Z- Z, r4 T# p
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current! Q6 E; o) y7 x9 @- ~/ c
prices."' x- X) ^! _9 y8 ]0 e
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at# S' o' j& S* v$ q7 f A
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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1 j8 c2 L6 [1 a' c( {, I' A3 N: x1 h About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
' z/ N* a h& ~( w- Z9 e5 ?tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
& S5 O! n! F8 H _! g Cclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
! M0 U+ c( ?+ S; b9 o; ^across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
8 ?0 B, d7 i8 h- f; r- q( gfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of) k. o0 i& l$ d. Z
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its5 f' H" J' X7 M& \
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
$ ~- j6 |" ?7 |country.: T( y; L( a/ ]8 Z, k* `" d; C
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
( W& L# C& Q) olimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
. A- ?, }. r6 Y" N" jPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
$ ?" I2 N! L+ f: Y3 A+ \3 J9 seach of which is a separate and independent legal entity./ r9 ^3 d2 p$ D. c1 U6 f' M; u
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About the Urban Land Institute
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: q% K& x4 [8 ] The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
3 M" z& B" @3 e2 @5 Y: x( @- vresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide6 k1 @5 N/ {& A3 b/ c# N
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating- q0 Q: z' r. b# X8 s
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
5 v( M$ a9 }2 D$ a* zthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
/ F5 r; K4 ~ w; C: A- o, W, zdisciplines.1 U: Q5 v2 d4 P( F% M9 |( V t
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
{* z+ R) J; Q4 _9 LWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District( C; z j$ N. @' T; [
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
! t% ~0 P' z+ J# ]2 \7 ]6 V4 B Bnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
$ N& ]$ c7 \' M8 S1 {# x! mhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
+ Q& e# A& R& `% w- f" w' Z: B2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake! r- k0 |9 U& R0 ]' Y, r
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
6 q1 c' W* ^: y2 ]# o/ @6 C7 Z @# nPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please* X: E5 Q$ I2 L% O+ i) L2 f3 D6 c
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on) ?* @6 s* S. {% R" O
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
1 z9 t$ b1 t) m/ Y(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
" V7 k! \. y2 h. ]; p: [% ]http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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