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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 9 U$ C; n5 A! }6 r: P5 D6 M
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
/ w% [' O( @1 [+ ` TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US( ?% F, T- f. ?* T: E, f5 s7 R2 P
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
8 d+ o7 P* C' W7 n$ a& ?+ Nas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
( d5 P4 x% O- |5 z/ S) j. T. b: B/ }Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)6 a8 Q7 \. P" p( q2 b1 H( ?
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
# {5 h V0 k" Tupbeat.
% b6 L3 V" O2 O% f Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded( G/ g! u7 F: y& o4 \
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 F' p! W. T; [8 z" {5 [1 d; n
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real' c2 \9 h( g$ S$ b/ m) u
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company' j6 [1 m) B% U* J9 d* J
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
2 a# I. z, n0 m" X9 ~Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
( G+ p2 S" S( \/ ]8 Xincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.; h* U$ e* l7 T/ {6 p( m. f
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
+ r; r+ P% X, v* @Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
) I+ s0 L( E ]" `# Y% t3 uenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to. H. Q9 H& Z {3 r# k# ~6 ~/ z
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
* D& y6 Z- t+ |: ?) O, E; x# ahighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
& Z# D7 R" a% Q( q According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the% K& b6 H4 Z2 }. a: f1 u! \' G7 B
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 L; R: U$ C* F. F" b2 |
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey/ y7 c" v' i0 r/ ~" X+ z" X2 Y9 N5 h
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US" B% B0 ?' l/ F0 \( b! J" k9 q
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be0 k' O$ g1 ^9 G7 V( |4 C9 E
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
$ w, I4 T. M& z The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
\6 M6 l# d2 `1 O+ {, d8 Srespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
6 t& ?4 E' X: ?9 J1 Gcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! I3 T' k! w9 x% Z% S4 Ndevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
$ B6 E$ |+ M% U+ m- J7 o. Sespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
3 h$ N/ I+ s8 `! ?# R: Fdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The& {- c* J: H4 P, z
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
4 s( E) L; h8 p- e1 atake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and2 g5 G p+ ~& H: _5 ?0 G
single-family housing looks overpriced.
2 f6 k) m3 G. K3 D Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with; R4 Q" r) z1 T+ _6 |$ @ M$ z2 s
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
8 d' K& d- R* s: {. c9 hmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
, F5 C/ x$ V3 S2 y. Q) W# nhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting6 n& g8 w0 t4 I
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
, a4 M6 P" g# j8 Q+ eand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
9 J, D( e) o, Q, u' i( ~: N8 @0 N3 H3 z2 yapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
$ O. H, J0 q$ q* X* M2 lwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
/ P) }9 I* E' pshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into1 H5 R8 k1 Y6 B+ j, v
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 U6 y% J k8 R2 @' M! O
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.6 k9 Y( y3 Y+ M
6 @- A& B$ ^! j; x
Canadian Markets to Watch! M3 Z" \$ n7 [4 {
2 f/ x8 ?( c M5 j+ u% `2 Q The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
' D; ^* l& ~3 n& F; M' Ncities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour& J; h$ x5 i& S4 B5 D, M
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
$ c9 }# U' u' i& `3 M" Xinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in f8 R* B7 H# j1 z' K0 k
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
5 Y9 R% j* f8 l) K! l/ Jprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out; X0 f- d/ i* _ C
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
2 V" E6 j! m% G; d6 p% kprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' m* a# @8 F6 h
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.# q* M; f+ |7 u7 z
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
. e/ u$ X/ S( `# y2 ]1 K! H5 ?ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.: V. v7 v9 k4 f9 V( v
: D7 T5 [* a5 }, |& d3 G' B! @% z Calgary/Edmonton% `8 _; Y" u- _
3 q- M7 V- Z5 z2 U
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one( I A9 K- U" ]# R
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a4 B1 b& R& z/ r! Y8 f8 @
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,6 T9 a$ H$ g: Z! T( I( t) M7 X
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.1 n3 F* {) r2 }$ s$ i7 g! M _. U
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
( b2 _% @8 H2 e5 B; S3 U N: MHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
/ x. p8 r- a1 Q1 u, QCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
+ U5 U- j& N( ^: W8 b) nstrong, this market will continue to do well.
) o# S) ^& y6 ? w r6 R& j$ l$ W: V- I! r$ s/ ?
Vancouver
2 R2 y1 U# h/ I5 w D1 r) A1 F/ h9 j- f! Q) i5 @1 Q
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
4 y% Q8 e3 q1 G9 e0 h" Bbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
8 K8 z4 n8 b& S* {& }' _real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the, c9 J" s% C% A0 I) @& o
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a2 r4 M6 L) @6 H E; z; ~! w
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy! g6 i, n) T. U7 R: Q! n! Y& I
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
" c4 X4 D/ ~3 ~% p7 _9 L' E \for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
; k: y& V/ k- f) l) Mfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
1 _6 I% a- L9 j4 N7 U9 bgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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9 t) P$ v* G! | Toronto8 p: I+ i$ t+ N
' D6 Q, p+ j! S) Y' J+ r Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and% E7 V: d! T- D: \
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is# o) ?1 t% ^# x
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
: ?; n a! Z+ Findustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; M; Z1 c' D7 A @$ \Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
# M0 K# T( \, _7 _/ Wfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
6 X ]# H/ {1 z. |" zApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
# X- D2 K# D, Z, ]. ~4 P9 [
$ _2 D8 k( ^7 M' k' x- T6 n Montreal% n4 S& q! \7 ^! V
# F1 t* Z1 z; h Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
/ [8 X* \, q. X1 q/ I& @3 |( j9 T5 W/ vgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up. Q1 A& v. k+ s% J5 R( }! A
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
. {) ^: ]; t0 u% u9 e* F$ CCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ l( b- n: E% _3 Q, usectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors3 D9 P3 Y7 v7 I1 m: F
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
9 h, { G% ?' Y+ }: `
, W% R! R- X+ @! @" \% a. R E The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
2 h8 h F7 O3 x9 g% Pinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy: I. ?1 X% M3 _/ K) _- j4 s, [7 P
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos3 x% z# t9 ?7 ~/ v9 _+ T4 F, P, }" G
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest1 h) u; b8 B- {3 ^; g
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current$ T; k$ K, c9 i. m9 l. q
prices.") F% _- Z! d) N+ z7 Z
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at0 Z8 u- Z, K7 S" x. J2 K1 M
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.- L8 r8 o9 l: |# G$ X. c
9 g4 B) y4 `+ Z
About PricewaterhouseCoopers( e- X2 r9 H9 a% j
" q6 b) E" n" O" ^) j PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
+ {! h( `$ Z8 W* S9 r# Q5 s; J% Itax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its9 @1 S3 @- ~6 h: k
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries0 ?% b+ _$ m0 o) T4 P) V+ V. m
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
( s2 p' k/ j. |% c0 U% o' w; gfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
3 o! M, i; ~' |excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
% R$ J& w! ]" X' frelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
$ n0 ^ h. m7 ]% r$ r7 `country.; @/ U: {2 E' X% J
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario+ X! b2 W6 D4 u4 s2 i/ {
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the% ~5 J% L; o5 l( F- ?3 q6 L4 c
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,; |+ l! O5 h" E3 F4 ~6 V
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
& B3 T2 A2 l: z3 O
/ m/ W. k5 o7 W) N2 b: j About the Urban Land Institute
2 o0 H g% t3 v( G. B/ E N, N* [: Y' d6 b. a- V5 T
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
/ u, d# ?/ p; Y6 j! L6 ^; [3 ^research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide7 v( U2 y; z% x; B
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating6 g- d7 n9 R% |! }' ?* n
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more8 {3 \7 p# L$ ~5 Y5 |" t
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development" B7 f4 v. [+ u, e
disciplines.7 i0 |2 I+ [* u- X( e
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada., z4 x) ], u O! ]8 q8 @5 r- d/ k
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
) ?" Z5 z" i( y8 M& g4 a) cCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is2 l" f; } N% Q/ v$ l2 Q7 _' R
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be$ ~: `1 ^2 ]7 [
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
$ k/ X1 a" B$ q j% g3 r* r. K. V* `# c2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
% ^0 Y/ G0 t5 P, M5 |% gHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ t: U% ]+ h" p' C( ?
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
# T. [. S0 @$ E& ?: D# ucall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on' Q c( w1 p. K3 s A4 M2 N
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
1 ^3 e7 U7 A6 ~. o0 z) g) C! d4 B+ W6 [: n0 a
" [* S7 j8 J! U1 R6 e7 ~
0 {# m) K- B1 e$ b6 IFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,3 ~3 U* K( t* K) I% S, ?9 X0 X- _
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com0 r" n! }$ L# f" d- M
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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