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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat h- e! f. s: m, g) `4 t9 J2 z4 a
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
, w8 ]/ \3 W3 [# k" K2 gcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern1 x" Y U7 y5 o& ]8 D
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging1 a/ o& f' ]; ]0 H! t
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
0 R2 k- F: ]$ Rand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more. a: q+ W2 C& M& [1 S
upbeat.
9 n/ u0 e; R4 s- U9 k- m, ~ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
2 G- r/ d& h f K- s+ M$ M9 Mannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects1 `$ t, B a. ]4 a
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
- r7 J& M6 o' i* K7 @# {% u- }estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
% r5 e3 @( j# G2 }% G; t7 |) Vrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
; M$ Z: q6 ?, I" g( gOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
0 T# d3 |3 K* }9 b1 Wincluding Asia Pacific and Europe./ O& N! W' L- \' m. Q" ?
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian% G2 L- c' O# D7 Q
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
% y! a/ }: I+ [- V1 zenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to! Q y" s; e$ b; s
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record) Q/ X, L- S& r% q5 U
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.") F, o+ g! D$ x
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the2 R* r2 |3 o/ `; e1 k$ |2 P6 y9 j$ _
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game. q: L. o0 Z/ I
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
( C8 s" o5 f& ]% @1 kremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
7 S# T! e2 _: L/ hcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
" T8 V+ H# Y7 F) p. Nvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 ~6 A! M! ^5 d( B The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian) }6 E- B5 X4 g y! C$ A
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by3 o+ O2 X: f3 K2 h5 z# ^- z7 p
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land/ {8 u0 j: ~) p5 c& {; B) `) d
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country1 F2 A1 A \: B! S# r7 Q% M
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
- `+ D. e6 Y: Z; s9 k+ ^4 ddevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
, c2 w6 y6 W, ^+ C0 p8 ~residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to" W" c% R7 ^# e& C0 P8 I
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and: x+ y7 |) T/ c
single-family housing looks overpriced.
" O. o" j/ P; ^9 R( v, j! g Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with4 h, \/ |/ Z1 ^% i- T2 r" a
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian2 a% D4 x3 k7 E+ x4 {5 ?
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push/ |1 h5 V, u: x6 O
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting: ?( v: G! I" s# t6 P* X6 F4 i6 d2 c
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
7 M! M" P3 P" w" kand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
j) {% S6 e. q3 k$ xapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
4 s5 G% S+ N$ A7 C, j. H; ?western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing( e5 l# g- [1 h+ V+ j
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
' c ~# r* \# E7 B) r/ Uthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development$ f# A1 d. X4 `. ]2 u, @- ^
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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- P& ?9 e9 I$ `/ \ Canadian Markets to Watch3 f7 u h2 c3 N; I- P8 U6 E% e
& G; E. I/ X& r The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
3 F5 b% y' s$ P0 N1 A) t$ O9 mcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour! E' a0 h- W% N
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back; @2 K7 z0 O. K! r. G0 E/ B
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
5 k& [9 ^& h) J! {2 Q0 F" a/ C+ Rdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( O0 _9 M% z/ H, g, b7 p Eprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out' \; {/ a; `+ n; x$ E, P0 r
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment% l7 n, N" R4 o
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
- k" n. p& j1 Hwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.2 R' v0 x# I1 r( \) j2 C
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high) `; C! m& M7 [
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.& b( B9 Z% ~% c. ^/ U0 a' B
- s: _( m& t2 m4 Q* O Calgary/Edmonton1 b0 n- T1 u2 X1 O: W& P% K5 d
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one% @+ w; i) {+ M! I& X% U3 z* X1 h
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
7 @/ V9 R5 }' ?' L# l- w, d1 Mbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
4 |0 C. r$ W# S6 c/ l+ n" q( F48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.* |6 _4 V' u$ h
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale: c" _ ~- Z" o+ Q. B2 c! n
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) l% q' a8 i2 W& K9 b0 ~; v5 l
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays5 Q! [; |2 |2 ?8 G- X
strong, this market will continue to do well.' i# L" G$ j: k* C- L) G N
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Vancouver# f7 G" c* m# b6 Y' ~
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is6 W7 z" o [6 h: R# i: c( l J
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
0 f; |" q8 Y5 O/ u: T5 F, ~real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the. Y' t5 h9 K3 w. J* ~
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
* w3 O: e) B: O; ]0 Ugrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
' D6 Y0 A. w1 ^; t) Rrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
0 I" ^* B0 {5 N3 wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%+ W& s1 n, W5 {2 i, g i- ]
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very! i) Q, h. R+ p8 u9 b
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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" _6 }4 t, J/ |6 U; E0 Q Toronto
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% A$ n$ E" u- l Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and, A4 M `/ F8 d- ~' a
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
2 ^/ ]3 w% }" c. u$ V& b6 i4 Crelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing _7 a1 B% P2 [* l h3 |. p
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# ?, Q& `1 P, P1 T* XThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* f0 X& f# K: S3 ]' O9 g I
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and2 d' ?8 I+ v# y
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal5 k& \6 F. O0 p3 V3 C. p
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall4 V* K; ^% w3 i( R# ~
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up. E) Q1 A- ~# D. Z
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
6 k' ?$ I3 R+ X5 k9 H+ [Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate4 y4 O/ T5 c9 Q% |" ~$ l
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
- e) J4 l1 f* B; ^0 C, b4 F; O: ehigher as a "hold" recommendation.' I4 b; j- z1 }. [
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years. `; X& b2 E+ c: N( L
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy8 j/ o, r c6 h! F: O0 P
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
9 v$ G: c# I# F0 Z- ]# t9 U! M: G3 Ynear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
$ B- \" O- I3 j/ ~3 Z* H2 noverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
- r7 [/ c3 s6 ~8 vprices."4 p+ X7 R# \( _" n+ N! g
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at6 V8 E: v$ X- Y* Z5 K
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.) `2 q1 ^! Z2 x* F% p$ |
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
; K5 @: |2 N5 \
" T) @% z7 e6 V! `+ @ PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
# X. B' Q# I5 M' f6 Ktax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
7 ]' t- M9 p+ _3 oclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
9 c3 F8 o& T5 Q2 M- S8 a3 Nacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop( X' w. w6 s. M' n3 M, U
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
# b4 b1 p5 u9 u1 i' o$ D$ Xexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its! p1 Z' m$ G( g* h8 F% U
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the. o2 F" ^# K( ^3 e: s4 _2 m
country.4 q# [2 e+ E/ o! W8 ]5 o0 ^
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario1 j/ O" _3 X6 t3 m7 I
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
* w" x, v% _- z } SPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
# _6 B9 I- B6 }( {% ieach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
2 r+ i8 i$ N8 [9 ~# d$ Q
+ {* Y: {. e u" v About the Urban Land Institute K3 v- I% q' C, w: g. j6 h9 h
; J9 \, v2 O! _7 j9 Y- E The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and' G: W( R- d2 y1 }5 G [. ~2 H
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide! N9 `; ~) n4 `) u, V2 D- E {
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
6 R6 ?5 N% U o$ R, p! }thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more( o4 n# d9 g2 D5 _$ ?/ w
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development3 o+ N6 `9 ^; H' b/ }/ z" g
disciplines.6 W0 R) k2 X/ ^% t' Y6 J& S2 v
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
: O7 x6 m: O9 v# ]/ |With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District( M2 g7 t$ |. p& c& k2 \
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is0 |5 n ?' Z0 p/ Y
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be0 t2 z( Y4 r, {! Y% h
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,* v, ?, R* D6 W' A/ {2 l
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 h2 s3 s. A5 @* n- F
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
( s2 J/ V% }7 W: xPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please) O" G5 O: `" ?0 P' O
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
n# ^; }5 C, B! y/ Uthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,1 L6 s9 H& T* d% [8 E: Z2 X4 s0 o
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
! A8 M( y, ~# @- {http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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