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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat - v* v! v4 ~. y
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US9 Q1 T+ K- b' e6 E
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern, d- f/ U! i6 }( ?9 |/ z
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
' [6 E# o, |' i; F8 V" O9 ]Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
: ]. V4 E2 E6 ~# i) ~; _4 o& Pand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
; n& T9 B+ n' P4 hupbeat.
0 l% x* y% l7 I4 f; z Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded" b0 G1 B9 c$ V
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects! k1 w+ h! ?1 V! t' A4 H1 ~" R
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real; F( I/ a- r7 n7 M' R
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
# _- J! b# P' Y2 Q- srepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
7 A' t5 Z/ q2 g5 e. ROther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
# }2 o3 p1 f. y: f# i, h# \2 D. yincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.1 I$ L( R- S9 @8 k, a6 M
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian2 U$ m7 n- |3 B2 r
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
5 o& o; W( f4 Fenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
" p: w) e3 J6 {( n, ~be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
* u. d/ P+ i" @- e( k' T. Ahighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."" U6 a1 E8 ]: z/ N6 z
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the* c* {) [; b y, d- R. n/ V/ ~" h
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
; s2 a; S+ i/ Z# \, aspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey+ ] {; Z2 @4 p7 {! c8 X" y
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
' u( e8 G6 i. L3 C* zcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be3 Z' @$ t; E7 I6 l" Y
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.* U' \; c6 y- @. r3 i- z" x
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
( n, T. d( O' P7 g1 k8 M& V# r) rrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
: J* e2 \' b, l0 ]* e) Ocommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land) b+ {. b* G+ B% ?: [. K" i
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country9 d" a6 K, G4 W: i3 M
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating! M9 c: y/ r+ M7 w* w
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
8 Q8 I$ H* e7 y0 f$ V7 q* L6 r& d( Gresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
5 \2 e# d4 W" W8 Y' {& e2 Wtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
7 B {+ L6 t' {) ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.
, W5 `, H4 D& a* r1 Y Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with/ M- R* E* ~' W! T4 V
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
: `" c6 P; Q' e8 `) u* l& wmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) R$ A5 O% a) ^. U# a* }2 Q
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting+ L5 E, f. e4 j
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,; k! |/ W" }$ S5 k" {. z$ F" e @- m
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
" T0 n. w# ]7 T! O+ \apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary: v( F+ d$ P9 U4 H; g
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
6 {& ^, P; D( |" t. e: o/ E( Wshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
3 S2 e1 N. f- @5 e4 b* L0 fthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development: p5 g! u0 ]! K `! d9 c
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
. D+ T$ A4 f% I7 m; i9 d# B& y% b# I- y& S. Z; B/ q
Canadian Markets to Watch1 i) D! C+ E% [! b# b
/ v& ]2 B, F4 C The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
) [1 z+ f9 \- o- jcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
# K! U- T- ^8 r% r' U' I- G. ~" T0 gneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
+ `! n! i: @# W8 r* cinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- v( j9 J% j4 P1 Kdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
/ l1 i; u( U$ h' `" x/ \' Aprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
6 F4 d2 R) P, t# ywest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment7 |. c% M% b1 r$ ^( G
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
' t0 A8 o: X3 w( f& F0 D/ Vwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
' w! J2 U7 N3 f+ c; Q& y% I* N6 JToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high& ]7 I6 |) Y3 ]! C5 r6 E# L' _
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton
" P6 P9 B8 ]1 W; u# a
; V4 C: s0 ^& o7 j& b0 Y6 Z Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one, ]! m3 x& Y0 L
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
& q- y, X/ Z Z* a% ^9 a8 P6 g" abuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
/ B T2 Y" ]" k, t+ u48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property./ H5 l# X) A5 {% Y4 P" N
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale, Q# N, J) t% s
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the! v1 a0 \4 x& h4 W5 P9 a
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays& M6 c4 o6 _' \( M7 t N6 \* z7 G
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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& T% o3 b! k/ m, ^: P* ^6 Q' j9 p& W Vancouver
" d b, w% L& A* `8 R$ d I. i: i: u! k$ i1 j
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
Z+ K6 f6 F) R4 N1 |booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
8 C, [: H0 ?8 Q$ r6 J% S8 E; Hreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
5 Q* V# [2 j' r* j% v* Smarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a2 }% r: F1 ]' v! k& L6 `
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy, Z1 g5 A4 T: e1 T; W, A9 S
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
9 G' D+ S, P) Q- X4 N9 Wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
4 j5 u- c/ }5 x% x8 Z" A8 R' p3 \for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very; |$ x+ q, |9 q( J \
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto! M- b; S l; g+ J* b
% d& @3 ]; C, U& } Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
& Y! g/ {& U7 @# P+ vmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is6 D1 [9 {; ^* o$ x
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing* A6 z" j( z$ v, T \
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
4 `; M" ?6 y6 T0 S Y. y4 W$ j, zThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square+ C) o8 R% S, B$ a Q. h
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and3 E. }( M2 L6 T) s
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
4 h" t. t7 u7 {# _ [
& p0 d, d7 K( @7 r1 o0 p2 s Montreal3 B* _" }* b0 H3 |
x. z* K1 ?. C) O Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall4 o4 |/ T" b6 `" k: G/ U
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
1 X+ V5 V. D! Z0 Pshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
7 m+ B _( W7 F+ X9 ^Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate8 P( T1 F3 m8 D' M, B4 f# x
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors' P$ G0 ^8 u4 X3 U- H/ N/ Q+ U
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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( S; w! }" t4 N; ]5 Y The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years6 ? Q' n9 B {6 _5 s8 C
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy% d5 F! f* [2 ?1 e; \' f3 F" G5 P6 s
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
2 Y% O. E( }6 ]6 i3 W; h% [6 Xnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
5 g& I) d1 N4 Eoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current5 @6 ~/ u, z6 u7 w! Q
prices."- H- B/ W8 V4 X0 K1 p
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
/ Y: L% d4 `! z) Q/ i6 }2 Nwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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9 V$ `# ?9 `$ Y About PricewaterhouseCoopers5 }" o& W2 e# M# L
6 `4 k7 c; K; C5 ]5 ~- x PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
$ q' c% k$ Q4 [2 [1 Q- etax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its5 X6 I3 j' Y7 a6 n4 ]
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries. G- W, k! `% P
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
" M- \ z7 [ j; x& R h: I [fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of+ w0 L8 w2 y9 ~/ A$ F. N" C- K
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its j3 a) F/ h# A; k. }6 c, W& i
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
2 M8 k7 `: s: K! }2 u9 Xcountry." B$ T: C5 d/ |; w; j
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario6 a" O1 k6 F! _
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
, p! ~ j- Y! Q1 \ nPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
$ L1 V/ w3 \ { j2 _each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
4 K5 C4 L- ^% z
* ^. H+ K6 M, s) }* I& P' c About the Urban Land Institute2 s* G3 ^7 t. P+ r" M7 y) I9 D
% U6 C' A6 q a6 Z The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 z3 m& @5 W) d9 u( T4 L4 v
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide/ W7 ]) S1 R2 E( Y+ s7 X
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
' {! m+ g" N, e& j( N* D4 r& athriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
" U' r/ X/ R: D P6 f; Hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development; W4 G% U8 ~2 f ^3 M1 O
disciplines.! V$ y! C" V3 J8 e) V; P) y2 ~
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.6 K1 u6 |, }: l8 H7 q! K! x
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District. X# L x& _$ X1 B" ]. x! @1 P8 A
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is7 J- R r, j# J8 y, i" `; V& [
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be/ U+ k, U" M; m4 g/ [9 j
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,8 C& E: g0 x! y; O# U7 {
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
N( ?+ g* R$ L( r" n; _0 E2 aHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
* V% s& K. p" T" p! \8 OPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
* m% f0 d1 l- \1 _, y# Ycall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on: e2 P8 O6 f4 q# M
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' n0 \/ V# D8 h, T& ^# |
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/ }2 G9 O. Z5 J2 F. r
3 A3 n2 h0 r, w! S& AFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
7 l a; e0 j" F# d(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com: ]9 Y3 p1 a7 I4 L9 I' g
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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