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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
4 P) k' [( x& R$ B b! ^; k, {9 n" Y. A3 G) o
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
+ B. A; ~/ L3 F2 j A TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
3 n1 F5 d! B$ o kcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern" j0 v8 F6 q. h7 N' y: T/ e
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging( h9 [ x" B$ m- I7 f" d5 y
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
, {' _' l. X ~3 `, K& Iand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
3 b' [& I2 W7 i) p X- z/ W; G6 xupbeat.. i- P. [- W) N
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
+ s) _; ?" r4 W& ]/ jannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
- V* i& d T4 hinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real4 v* n7 {1 e' O# ]8 e1 g% y! _5 T- E
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company) r0 x& r7 s( D: h4 m. E
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.5 H* v2 T/ \9 ~4 k# Q# n0 b V
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* ~, e# i- V9 ?+ C' ?5 ?including Asia Pacific and Europe.! o* L# ~3 i' b! `
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
7 j* C9 L/ x5 uReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment! K1 @. ]# B: C2 |4 n$ H$ m
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to( D% z- C; n& I9 L6 R7 R" u {
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 l, [% R" i; {# @* Khighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
) U) Z8 G! T4 O6 o' B. y) V. F: a According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
I' @* K: P3 F/ r, l# fborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game( M# t& _5 Y/ a. c$ J$ B) V
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
7 a9 [1 Z7 z2 P6 q% C2 Jremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
. M8 h- {6 A. u; Wcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be1 Z& C& X4 A- P; x; y% S/ R
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.$ j; I, m! Y2 \5 i' V# n3 E
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; K, n- ^$ Y7 g$ h2 K$ Qrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
* z# q/ i [+ c+ U/ scommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land) N' ?$ {1 j3 ~1 [$ L( E3 P
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
8 }/ @7 H# c4 E& {+ m6 k4 n, u) H" mespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating- }5 T. d3 I; Y: ?/ b
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
+ ^- z: l0 U1 `) e3 n/ qresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to6 x. b/ {0 O' U+ V' a) Q2 O( x
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and# ], {8 g+ N1 G3 g: Y; C _. D
single-family housing looks overpriced. p0 h; W5 W. w
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with9 n5 a4 K/ [; }+ j
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
$ Z& y/ U' m3 @2 ?metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push$ u, ] s# X, P, \. T7 s5 J
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting; Z2 Q5 C8 U0 P( L
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
3 M- P) [( b3 g1 f$ m5 nand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental0 O+ ^% [$ e- T3 ~, @5 k
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
9 ~$ a- r' a$ Bwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
. D( T& \+ Q7 hshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
. ^# e; f8 {6 g( b2 ]5 Zthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
. P3 |/ o: G2 v x* _( v) ]in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
* z ? h, A3 ^1 H D
9 X8 l% [5 E9 l7 e) L* J Canadian Markets to Watch
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* i( q. B4 Y+ y The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central! ^1 D5 { E; H8 F( Y! j, u) z: p
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour$ M' t! a3 q: _7 d
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
, _3 \6 J4 p% _9 U1 @: {/ ?: Xinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
( Q" d1 T' s) k0 }. z! }( Ydowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical" o. b% ]( M" c( L9 [$ w8 X' W
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
+ \; h6 X) Z6 G- Lwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment- O( V9 S h' A
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain2 L; s9 W4 n1 N2 R$ q c
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this." S; K [* F/ {/ Z& J
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
) h. M& M% q8 ~0 p/ q& e2 qratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.* U6 d: r: x6 t0 M( D
- d/ m, Z: x5 h Calgary/Edmonton
* K/ P8 j; V! ~. O- z% Q& u* q9 I6 G8 V% E- W% f6 x5 z# ~. ?
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
. W6 P( [& N) b* j$ q" Yboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
& n4 W c/ w1 I4 X/ xbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,* V2 E* P; w/ k, k+ d
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.; o/ f: z3 e2 I) Q/ Q- A' |
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale0 W/ J1 \1 A' \" v
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the7 p3 Q6 z6 g5 m; W1 {) E
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays/ _0 Q/ {- g: z$ @
strong, this market will continue to do well.1 V, L9 w$ O3 t" H" B% y
! W. ^1 z- b$ S- R
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is- ^, N# _! a6 e, s- N+ O2 v+ [
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous4 E$ P7 U6 H. c
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
6 Q& l: C% \$ N/ G* [* O* Kmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
1 h7 s: Q( E# [4 T6 Kgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy# O1 s2 m3 E. N8 ^. ~
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
# b1 g8 Q3 ?' w$ K- |( A+ z& n+ g& Rfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
5 Y! Q4 h7 B. M" e0 ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
+ N; e; o4 H* X" s# ?good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.& z4 m5 I% Q1 W* i! d6 G$ [7 p
+ n0 E" q a1 J5 A! a& I, @
Toronto& z& h# D; p; W
9 b2 ^& N L8 p. P# z& h0 t Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
. U/ D# r% U/ l- d3 N Bmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is1 w, ?. ?( _9 B _; J0 i# w' m
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing& O8 Z U" c. ]" q2 F
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; y& k; t( H0 m4 EThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
$ C$ I' x; L/ Wfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and0 G7 B( B- a$ D
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.! ]$ y* N! T) a( ~/ S& M3 P: ]8 ^$ W
8 c# F: s+ K# h* c' ^, Y2 t+ S7 w
Montreal0 K) i; z; f5 ~" `1 ?
& O$ B" }& r+ [# u) j/ w/ z L1 ~) w Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall8 O6 g0 N' \$ x! E* D: X
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up3 [) g3 @; b! I6 H* S
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in& X2 \' C" C3 O# o6 }) d
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
. L& ]' b4 c# y4 Gsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors& J5 \5 L3 o( a+ K/ ^) }6 [. D$ @
higher as a "hold" recommendation.& P2 S- v0 ]( T2 ^
* u9 i; f$ a0 l" C/ d The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% c) L5 W. r' W: K' _* W- g
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy* `1 w( v8 M7 u
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
0 z9 O- C+ u6 N$ [- r9 @# j4 fnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
" D6 f9 d- l+ Noverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
! D3 H0 U; \0 ]' ?) O4 R# C& Dprices."* [5 Q n/ @/ V5 R( j `
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at, F: _( T- G$ M0 ]- o0 }' ~
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers1 p% y, A' O/ S P3 P
( E3 [! I: D5 q7 v* Q: }, A: H PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
1 |5 V3 d# F* P7 ~% l- }tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
J% [, \! V0 i5 C/ M4 k( A5 v( Vclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries' n* |8 n4 f' P3 R5 v g
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop& ]$ S- m. B, J% y3 }5 v# ?
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
$ @, T! U8 X! Pexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
$ U" Y. A$ o" g1 N. b4 _# Srelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the+ e0 E1 K7 A4 D) ?- u; q J
country.1 p* M0 E! W, c p0 U' S
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
j' y2 V9 @- s8 ^8 \" ^limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
- O/ l) M: g& SPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,$ L8 f' ]: A* t
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.% h) ]6 C, r( L" l
/ R% d5 Q7 @ x
About the Urban Land Institute
( U1 J0 x, O1 v6 v/ {$ s7 e
. @6 y' a3 u3 z! c The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and) u6 u) H- U6 ^4 I1 R
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
& Z5 M9 ?2 i, i8 fleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating* G& }$ j& e1 t9 G% k
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more& G) D# B- d* W5 P1 F; s' g+ T$ c
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
+ u) G" G. j) w; ydisciplines.
, L0 @+ D6 S7 f* ^7 A" o The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ e) c: D4 k7 `* G1 j f# A" f! uWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
& Q2 Q0 N9 V. i6 g& D5 dCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
9 p6 S7 k; [+ [) U$ {now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
" C5 U5 X. F: f5 D6 Uhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,3 ~) z, X, t3 S- p
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake4 M# J% T% B+ w) ~ f
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,0 D5 ]5 U3 L% u7 a3 w
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
4 y9 T# V, t0 [+ R5 wcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
: I/ L* g3 D% s$ T8 i% vthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
. B/ H& o- X8 ]# u* \- D* O
6 L7 F& f! U" E# d" k- v1 y1 `) X2 g) x
" o/ t+ q. A7 B% }5 g' V3 F- u5 BFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
$ v1 A6 \+ f4 f' v(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com6 k7 H/ r* \6 B" Y( a
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html) v. E$ L( C& f0 a8 x* ~, E Y
+ q$ c; w9 C0 q9 R# `[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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