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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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; }& D8 `0 q" q9 U0 XDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 4 c& S& x9 D& ^5 p( u' c
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US1 h. @: S# d D) Y8 t& x2 p
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
/ d7 j* k7 c4 Sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
) K: @4 }+ s% v& PTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)( x8 M: o& N4 H, J( v3 g6 ~0 l% `
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
8 G8 H0 Y% n& N' Jupbeat.
3 _+ L- X# \$ ? Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 g) L6 \' d. U0 G' Tannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
$ d$ E* c: @% ] l; A3 z" z! Finterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
% f$ S( C3 E# u6 L3 T+ D+ h3 nestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
8 H# W8 [6 M& J* G& ~* zrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.9 l0 i! X# _6 ~% u5 t* J7 Q
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
% R5 j& S5 l9 u% H9 x" s( sincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.4 `! @9 ~5 M. X i. }4 D
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian: M L+ z' r8 {* m4 U
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
: ~, N. z7 Z; [+ m/ Zenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to, j# e. y$ N, v+ u( }: F% k/ q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
/ m+ |: k# {& E* d1 x' [" _/ b# dhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space." F! _' c t( W! y0 b
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the: z2 I: u* H; J: {8 `. E
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game. R- C& K" x, D+ B/ j) ]$ ^! k
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
* a3 C; C1 c! V) J& B4 j+ tremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US( k5 L0 K% T" U( q+ Q M
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be& V/ |3 Q- U& Z# ]& z' Y
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
) L9 P9 m5 }- d* E5 a" z; _4 a4 v+ Y The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
* @2 S' D$ Z& Hrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% j7 i& I% ?$ o& b
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
6 ^ k v0 q$ idevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
/ q$ A& [5 ^" d+ T) W0 Zespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating! k) y3 z8 I8 O8 Q& \7 K- y/ @( m8 z& S( s4 H
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
' d# e7 W& W& qresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
9 _8 Q& k+ K6 X# ~ G, S5 btake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and. s/ I" f! g+ q" H) M& H
single-family housing looks overpriced.3 w1 U+ H: k. M7 O6 [2 ]$ p8 g' E
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
/ O6 c. Y9 {. a% g s& Z+ }2 }tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian& V: ~& l2 K" R/ r% O! N
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push" F- d4 }, M: r/ f, K
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
4 ]9 v! _; X/ h5 {4 n& w0 Jnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
- e3 w' ]/ b( K+ P" d' }% R0 Mand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
/ }$ b- C/ L% I- o: }4 v gapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary7 L3 Y8 V9 c8 P j/ t: j! M
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing2 o" L1 w' N `4 T3 x* h g1 a+ @' u5 O/ ?
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
# I( R: ]! ^) B! x. Dthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development* T: o R3 P& {) ~& J
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity. [! L' w Q( E
7 X2 m) F% W# E5 u2 e, [ Y
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central q: j; F) H' Z7 z! i: J
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour* [+ k+ M1 o6 r7 e$ o, j
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back; d* D- U8 V% H$ N3 z
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
# p& \, u8 j% F+ T' Jdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
) [! _7 ?( N8 v: \( r$ K- D6 mprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
3 Y4 K! K0 k- V, i! [, {5 nwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment) D& s+ F- s7 E" ^9 S4 m
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain3 t6 m w) e' `: `+ M- K* A
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
: _9 Y9 a; Y% h( }" m. dToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high/ K( n4 G6 j4 n) t
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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/ m* K% P- [0 N0 {: F5 @9 C Calgary/Edmonton
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. X, B8 O# ?& r5 J. T& f7 L Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* t C: G5 Y! x& b5 J2 B
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
, p& ^* {: G3 |* @' Mbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
3 I' r; B' B% I0 k. P7 q48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
]: o1 H$ a; X" E+ nFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale9 I& D" y8 W5 u6 e
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
6 h5 s0 `4 N4 Z# T* H: hCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
+ u3 d0 l* m$ G4 D' }0 g4 y3 Estrong, this market will continue to do well.. c, [+ ]1 E2 b3 o7 q5 p
e- z8 D6 p' F/ L! f
Vancouver
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# u0 i% ^* o% u C Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
" s3 p( j( R, `) xbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous3 |! f4 c% q7 S$ k% u: k( R
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the: h) Q5 K! P$ l7 ^5 V( _/ e
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
) l {5 c x8 ^; x' Wgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy( o" y$ M* z' o2 h
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
- ~) w, d" Y5 |' h" p/ o \for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
5 K, D/ n; H% Z- Tfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
( ~! a7 e$ f3 v% Ogood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto! e V3 M# Q0 V5 }# e4 v( B
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and: s2 L- x5 L: u. M$ I5 B. J
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is1 m- n, ]: y" d
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
* _, g9 i; B2 H5 G$ Iindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; t9 _2 q2 s( h# l! \Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
4 }; r/ V" v' k" Bfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and) J2 k; B2 m* ~) U) P& p* }; ?
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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7 l/ R8 B8 i$ I( W; ?% M4 X Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. P; K/ H. e+ c. P$ Cgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
: {. b M# G9 k9 t9 [7 Yshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
. N0 n* z8 W; z* ~0 ]" zCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate% Y' K' R* C* _1 x9 { m/ O
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
+ G) w- a* p, _' ~higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
/ [9 Q# M2 d. m6 l! Vinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy; m# m$ L( L& o: F
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
& F, k- K) {& znear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest7 O' }; S3 [6 O. o7 h5 T
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current5 Q8 E; a, Y8 j+ R, P' v- y
prices.". J& ?: k% g/ {, Y! M- n
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
' K! r# R$ Z. f' `& F- \www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers$ n/ X7 K& k f% ~5 q
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
! \; g( G, T1 P/ o6 }; Ztax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its$ o1 |6 ~- f) m8 f; |0 J* q. M3 Y
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries4 j* V) H4 C" I8 u; ?3 i% \0 I
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
, g. ^& T9 Z+ A, D8 Z! [! tfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of1 f) S, S. V; S2 u6 ]) @
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its& B/ I. T. h% {7 b* ?" C* a
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
6 o1 r g9 s7 E, L) z+ ocountry.' i @* C6 f. G
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario, L2 R+ k, Q! [. ~
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
$ f5 b4 ^2 Q/ r5 j9 x* }( FPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
0 ~" S+ n3 |! e( aeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.- J. z) D( g) h4 k! U$ r
* w' _2 I: m: @; Z0 n+ J+ Z About the Urban Land Institute
' {( x" M f* j* a4 @- n0 {
. E. E6 ~. d' A, d, Y/ ^$ o- }3 ` The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
( |) M) e' O" c; a5 h, }6 Q6 lresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide7 w! U3 X1 Z5 m, v+ p9 ?$ ?, [
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( y S' s/ x6 z8 i; k9 bthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more! p. {* u( c2 e6 `
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
2 u6 ~0 L4 B- B' A# g: idisciplines.
; z/ T5 C3 v! q: \ The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada./ {7 w7 ?+ E9 L- Z2 O. q, N
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
! ]5 E& ]. O1 N2 n7 h! BCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is* E2 g! r8 @/ f
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be& t0 r! ~0 {( p7 _" I" v
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,+ v+ m$ l9 @! u+ u
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' Q( N- o s- v7 N, f( B- P0 zHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
- X \- ?+ ?7 ]( T6 s* nPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
d5 M3 u8 f, W) xcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on# w# e! b4 N* `8 k
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.! N5 ~0 i9 z4 p8 M$ v! G! _
! v9 e. L% l0 z1 c8 r; b/ n
' G7 q- d0 w4 e- B! O# g
; ~' p) q* N8 V1 @For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
- o3 v: V* o o(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com: f3 z, h& v' S, X2 W$ V
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html$ { G, K d7 i6 ]/ r0 _
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