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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 3 W, Z. b' U2 o. I6 b
z8 ?' l( ]% u+ M1 T9 i. RDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ' x! v* I5 F$ f
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
4 d" x/ u+ O: d: {, M- m4 hcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern( C* ^' h/ B& r! D# x# h+ s
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging- S9 Y* o! c% S" d6 V8 k
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
3 O; S% M7 j0 ^and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more Z6 ~/ `0 c) s o$ x9 C
upbeat.
) Z* c! X1 D) z1 X) d- y! y Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
" l7 U2 W2 y6 \* sannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
& V6 H2 I% K0 ainterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real0 i) |3 D, E3 a. l
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
1 L3 G: u7 C' P0 d- z. ~* mrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
; K! ^' Z* g$ W) y, s4 v& [Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world' N) C: D& `7 {! K! p; X
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
% C& i2 P) b( A g( H' y, { According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! c0 n$ f% m5 ?& ?1 aReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
3 g6 L% M& t! C/ {environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to+ ^; }2 h% c% b) }+ A
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 r1 v- S+ r9 k' Z: z- k+ y
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."& B0 a$ b; ^7 P9 c5 e3 g
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the: I9 U% ], ~# z, g- S8 K/ c
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game) c6 Q/ y; M- h" A7 h
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
( k0 F3 E3 |, K3 ~9 i8 F5 B$ J1 W3 q4 bremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ ~( }. H2 K% K7 {4 G9 m: `" B, @correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be7 L _# {; M( X
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 ^8 ~$ t9 ?' Q The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian6 h- l, A; G9 J1 ?0 @
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by, C: q: m# H- u0 w
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
3 M- L9 u7 Z/ `4 q( t2 x7 x( \development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
8 U% E/ ?3 k" a2 y) Yespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
+ h0 B4 Z0 \5 y0 l7 mdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
9 d9 O3 ~$ \' R* ^2 Vresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
1 j& x/ d8 U# m' M4 r# P3 w. ?take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
. @. h& N& [; o5 Q a; A' j6 A. Tsingle-family housing looks overpriced.# p8 e$ q( y, I: ]0 u. d0 i" @; }& U
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
: g" \! t+ z, n/ ^* ]1 Atenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian) @0 y2 G0 u( z5 Z' G
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
0 [$ I- w) S. h" ~- ohigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting" K1 Y1 [) r) P
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
1 g& ~+ I( e7 e6 Q/ o* ]and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
8 g3 _+ m) W# b6 R8 j- Dapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
% Z A# N8 Y, S/ n+ [9 S0 N9 Hwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
# X, P Z4 @5 x) Q d. Oshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
% b z B7 e0 E( Y Q) C) [the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development7 d% \6 e9 U# D9 M
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.9 l0 h) M4 ?" n6 W
. y) D3 c! M7 m+ z( F
Canadian Markets to Watch
5 _, |8 w% ~# y- H0 g! |# |" x
# F1 [* T) m, H/ d4 O6 t- y0 E I The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
; X; l1 W) Y" d5 acities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
- U" Q7 s+ F& E$ ?neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
8 r/ C* [* a. Iinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in! L$ [: U) M4 G+ |# q, s
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
. c$ F- r9 F& A: yprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out+ t$ ~+ Y/ X! [# n$ O. S
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
, S O9 F1 O; x7 ]; _0 \: Iprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
8 R" Z6 @- s* Y; X+ `whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.$ `0 K) j* N5 Y, x& M2 Y
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
) P+ T( n1 S) j$ q8 L0 ]6 K- u: m5 a3 |ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
+ H; F- i7 t. R+ W0 j. m5 P
: ?! V" X t8 k% m: G Calgary/Edmonton
/ R% z3 P& T5 D& P/ ]* t% g2 O
8 @5 n+ z6 z8 F4 I& W3 R Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one! {. j& B0 p, x7 V. \7 C
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a0 H; p0 S" b1 P* M' B
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
0 a! D0 Q% q, I- @! y* }* V48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
5 d( q, u8 p, \' sFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale& u! g) e. I {8 o* D
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the8 j1 i R" s: r
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
1 f) k* J! @2 W2 O; Ustrong, this market will continue to do well.
M6 }2 X" c8 U" p
$ ~- Y+ z* K; \5 K/ ? Vancouver% s5 u1 j6 S, g
8 C+ V5 q. _% M, J! p
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
T# {( d1 U2 ^8 z" T) @booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous% j% y7 ^) Q0 c) k7 b
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the$ A" n, d, v* N y! X
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
" z' l& _; _4 ? Wgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy r0 _/ c2 r+ C4 G) Z8 E" a
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
: o1 {; Z3 @ M+ \: lfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%+ {. j2 C7 s" s& j
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very- P% K' H1 M7 M3 Q, Y$ [0 X( U
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
2 V+ q1 M6 ]" [* S6 y! ^7 X$ F8 f
Toronto+ `, n4 p& \/ _- P; A
4 w* u! E$ W( l, D Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and( Q6 J+ g$ |1 r' ~6 u2 h: a
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is# R7 \0 ^# C0 P1 e% a
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing% D/ ^# C, l2 d3 ~9 b
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
6 g5 S j) X; ~. l# S' O$ \. xThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square( F* H) g/ w4 \. u6 B$ ` ^
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
+ x! q2 N0 i$ r/ k% m% s6 pApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.' V/ K5 z. ^" @' s
4 M q% @4 L, C5 P7 W# @/ ~! r$ i
Montreal
- g* m5 @: l) C: f- g) C" P3 O: ]3 U: W. z) I7 T. j
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
0 [1 k8 l4 M8 W9 M' x9 [2 z" f4 bgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up E( f* K; j6 _& ]
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in" L" h$ @1 |, E M m
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
7 G9 g1 C5 s5 [8 r% {sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors3 _" x( j' ?( O, y% y
higher as a "hold" recommendation.( {6 Q: z8 \1 K3 S _
; ~0 ]4 V. d- C; y The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years. m: w2 P8 d7 z# r! L) k
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
9 o' j3 F+ {, d# T( @markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
* I" ?3 V1 L6 H5 ~- Dnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest6 t9 e* x. j! w2 n
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current- U& m6 W2 s% F! R8 M" d( i" F/ Q! l
prices."$ z. d! ?6 d& A$ T
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
1 |' m9 K: o( u; c4 Nwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
. |: e s" \" n7 D" ]
9 S8 r" t& T" S3 q H5 \, R* F About PricewaterhouseCoopers8 J) g0 b2 W+ h1 k R' u
0 C `9 K! i2 ]" L% A$ f- l. i
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,* ^- q1 O( `: o
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
+ \4 \7 L: N1 ` O4 Bclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
, B' N0 p7 v/ W0 J0 a% l, Lacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
" Z8 Q% W( N z& d( G3 b; d- N8 ]fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of% v& N! ~% C/ w
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
) f) \5 R/ s5 F4 k' Q, wrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the& V0 Q8 o2 A. I2 I' y
country.
p1 L% E7 ^+ ?9 ]' s j "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
; E% f: ^+ {. R7 Elimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the2 v! |4 x! z5 z& Z: r! m- y
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
0 E! S- R4 F" J4 S5 U0 F6 X- keach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
/ i& `; j5 ^7 D, G c
0 D7 n% m/ T' C( b About the Urban Land Institute
8 R Y/ | ^9 j; ^% b3 z" v6 P! }; u
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 f9 `8 d# [0 E; v6 {
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
) v9 g6 B: g' k5 d0 K9 e$ pleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& P4 J/ m% b8 J9 A' `: y3 Gthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
; ^ L. d' v- e" s1 M0 |$ w! z2 Mthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development2 w, Q7 U5 f+ p% m0 V
disciplines.
8 k, p; s- _, J$ j, q+ ] The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
8 N* K. q2 F9 S8 d3 QWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District, k' d+ n) F. c! ]! }
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 f6 P: x$ @- D& }" w, Z7 Bnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
) o. y' k: k$ q1 ~5 y) `hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
: L" g- W5 d0 o6 E1 B3 T% b& [2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
4 u; i; i L* F# XHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
1 `4 t1 I) ?$ f: b3 x. Z* DPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
! P. q; ?4 c7 _2 ~+ J, a: g8 icall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
/ E$ H3 c& w1 j7 p0 d9 L q- J: `the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066., ]1 {: d' ~! s4 n, A3 t
1 P) S" t8 B, y: }5 E( y9 m" l2 h" ]4 I
$ U+ T, O9 n& K2 K0 U$ P5 eFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,3 F/ h/ V3 R7 k8 W* m7 L
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
* N8 S4 `0 r9 c$ p9 U& Q; ? D& C2 Ohttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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