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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
1 i R6 ^% l- r% n TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US X$ c/ F7 i' a' u
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern" l4 Y& W7 ]- } L2 L
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging" N7 r: u/ {% K+ _
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)$ `1 k9 w! P% t7 D' |
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
5 Y$ @6 C( d+ supbeat.' E* v, G8 N) A6 ~# b
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded# G+ E5 C8 N, c8 N, e% N5 b* i
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
D2 W* X, `6 L6 einterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real1 h& g5 `* l. `: s: P: L x( q9 V
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company1 i; n7 e; z' C
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.$ w2 f6 A7 W0 ?; o- e3 A
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world. t+ @9 ~5 _' }8 ?: d. {. ?, C
including Asia Pacific and Europe.8 D( V; T; `. y
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian+ b" p( k \2 ]2 D( K
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment' h) W6 i. s' |% E1 k6 N: i/ {
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
) b7 `% E0 {0 D2 T5 h1 {2 y& Nbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record2 V& z7 ~! \7 B* p
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."; z/ e7 I( O7 A6 u' k2 g
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. E0 n5 q& _: W) lborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game5 \1 T1 Q! D- F( Z# f
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey- i( L8 O% b. p" v
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US; k# z- p- U+ c; D
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be0 @, X% S/ c1 @( W2 {( M9 b
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.8 a0 i D$ Y9 c4 w
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ v( ~( ^9 D8 K( A, J6 z- T8 h' q
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% W5 b& I6 t3 S
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land5 k' {; p* Q* H: j) e
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
8 r# m; [3 [! K: u5 z" I" aespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
0 Q2 G, k" v& qdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The$ s6 V8 H+ G/ _, K
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to' J, [2 T3 }# s1 P3 ^+ m
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and( e0 t! i! B. Q
single-family housing looks overpriced.; D$ y# p0 x! m
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with7 p$ @2 J- g, r! v
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
7 R# ]/ F! N5 y+ M8 n' t/ W, Rmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
+ c' ^3 ^3 J! J, Z4 M, `higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting$ o' n, _! i5 R8 s! i7 x# U
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,* s3 |/ l6 |. I! n2 @
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental9 } t) {4 I6 k* G- ^, I+ [
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) q; L- I% X2 N; l5 twestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
. ?7 @8 _8 Q( j3 dshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
9 J" @& P5 [6 Hthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
! ?; ]: ]! v7 I. x( f) gin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.4 u# s7 S1 o$ J, p% ?
( B, _* E. Q( Y6 K4 W Canadian Markets to Watch
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! Q) U$ H" y6 h6 e3 S( u The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central* x6 K! D/ B$ q" a; L
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour4 k1 R& c, w; w7 f m( \! R$ j
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back0 O# O$ Q! N2 B9 g! e( r
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
! L. M3 `$ C9 o7 l2 a% h4 M& Qdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& C' N$ }) V# t& f( I# m
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out$ o+ i0 L' [; P6 h7 r9 U2 f
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
4 }# R6 b; x% {prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain- K. [5 ]. ?6 X, l; f6 a9 T8 ]; k
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.0 o. H9 |5 O2 W
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
! j! W$ G/ A1 I& C& z' X/ Wratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton) n* q! I. g s J+ b
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one) V# t+ x+ K4 H1 S1 K
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a4 Y# d( Y% f) @4 Z" X( x0 ^
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
1 Z! q, |# h& F3 x8 t48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property. L( I% {5 h9 \8 C; E' l" m& Y/ ]
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
+ T4 J, J. r2 C# w7 WHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
7 H% R: C8 T. G# R$ o4 xCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
5 E7 u+ T. G9 `# H$ a3 P; n! q( ?! Fstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver" C/ V4 O2 f! t- I5 q7 P5 q
/ g- E3 q1 G) s9 \$ P0 m6 R Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
' _0 Q. g; p, n o0 i. b3 A4 Ybooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
! S" _- q: l3 x% l; W" vreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
" m4 I+ C7 _, J3 Z5 x Mmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a6 N: B: A8 A5 F" T9 W
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy' `/ \2 _6 g" g, y G: Y
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%4 B0 M9 @( ^0 L" K. T. q8 B C
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
6 G! x! @4 ^ Zfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: l( q$ J( Z0 E5 @0 Q) x, ?good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects./ K3 j( r0 a' A- e6 B
; ~5 d; O3 L) }0 h3 x) k# Y Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
0 F3 ], C+ H4 L9 N3 w( q' vmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is9 Q& u- ?+ I0 d1 R
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
7 j* |5 V3 w4 {2 H! windustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum." U2 i/ y/ {5 r" ^
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
7 P6 J, L3 e: i2 ?9 t/ j6 D0 lfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and" x( A+ o5 ], c7 P" @
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.3 G, X7 {6 r5 x w) n
- v! T% M* W/ [, U @& o% b" P Montreal
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* a% Q! _- E' a% ~+ B" b) Z* |0 k& f. L' c Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall9 `7 u: e b' x! I2 A6 h/ u0 B) E' s$ Y
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
5 }& a3 F& ^/ i4 {" J( vshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in/ Z* \& ~. q. j9 A/ x
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate! s$ _9 w/ L1 }4 I2 R; b
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
; s) d! s7 l: b$ b/ n! qhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
7 l- L# L, @7 n. r0 xinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy% T( C. B5 o$ y7 O; o4 j
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
0 x) s# e2 G. A. ^1 fnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest/ [# C; }$ F$ e7 B0 T
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
: \0 H7 X4 U" T- I/ N* \& F/ tprices.", T% b; j5 |7 |2 ?% w( C" w# K
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
2 R, R- p- r3 d* [' P) Awww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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% i, q: V: c$ Y! ^- E' K" q About PricewaterhouseCoopers
0 P3 d0 @$ B8 S: x. O6 k
8 c: s C. W( A5 z PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
3 Q M+ g. K ztax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
3 z+ n4 b! R* B/ N1 `# `9 x9 Z# ~- Xclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries9 l+ l" K+ x6 M# d1 r/ W
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
8 w3 C, v( N. P0 dfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
% u$ v/ Q3 Q: t7 i# p1 G" aexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 W! ^; [" \' V) U9 V' ^" n
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the9 l) a# E- {1 L( W
country.9 Y- O% P0 e3 h4 I
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
9 U( ~' m, ^0 ^) \( Hlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the7 h) b& s, N5 C7 `
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,' l8 Z8 r2 U$ H) \; |) ]3 j' M
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.6 M' W3 ?& b. n- [7 V3 ~2 z
) h- j6 t$ \& t* o* K: T About the Urban Land Institute0 I# Z \! B+ R
% ^# O/ A L* @
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and- E: m. C% b: K1 V) m; Y n( j
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide6 c1 M3 Y- u/ g/ l4 G
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating Y: N) V; ]" P. c. k8 x; S
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more" l; M) j# ]/ `3 B! c: B
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
7 w5 y6 F6 {3 R" k/ ^3 edisciplines.
" k% @+ q. [) d$ M, Y, K) H The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
/ J% j0 @7 S' D* [With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
: H. S: W) x+ b: W; U" xCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
8 a; e; Y0 f1 ]now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be0 @0 v; b' U/ L; m9 O! B b
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,* h5 D4 S4 P" G3 R
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake* t) O5 G, D/ G/ e
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
& {. n+ b( Q* q5 Q; P& p( Q! \President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
. v P: s3 L7 u+ s a- acall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
% l4 f2 u8 k* y# q2 Y# ithe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.# l& \3 p7 L' s$ t. t
! A% k( r X/ U& E) h3 V
2 ], K/ U, R3 I7 {# v) e6 u# q
4 A. U' K$ k! X+ U" `* MFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,$ A$ g' ?: ^, t1 p
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
/ ^* K( T5 D- C# C: t% yhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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