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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ) B: i; h; L; f: {
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
4 s. e. O, A6 L& b' H0 F TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US7 P3 s+ R4 f+ F3 z& B0 B9 e
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
, P9 D* J7 ~" @% f9 I V2 Gas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging) e. T. Q% A, W
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
' p7 F/ Z& f: @' I. }- I+ Kand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more3 E( i' C0 F- x( K3 B- J
upbeat., P/ T" H9 M" @0 ^; Y
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
# j- @3 G; {8 M: t: Sannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
8 d$ ^' R1 n6 C% ^+ y) uinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real+ G1 P7 w, f* E" T" V3 F6 x- \$ ]
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company* B4 k7 y, a9 p
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
3 \4 T+ B7 [9 e& ]% C8 n1 N, oOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
' p' ^0 O& S6 Xincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.3 i4 K2 Z- B2 Q
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
4 M! D2 Q; j, W: x$ MReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment% A% Y. A3 L) ]2 C1 {
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
8 t& R5 H/ X7 c& {* R- F$ ^be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record4 q" O3 F' s" L9 D
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space." |4 v6 s4 l: l$ t: ?: |
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
# c1 W/ z3 o7 D& dborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
* T4 X2 P. w5 t; Mspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
# v [" ~: V; u# \remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US6 e4 q9 U8 ^9 z& ~8 w* Z# w
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
% c' D+ R0 f- l" p1 f; _very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
Y" ]1 Q& P+ M2 ~8 D The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
2 p/ e; f1 L& {% [8 y* X* j+ k2 L" zrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
# Z( z3 ?* y r" m0 zcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land; f H1 ?+ ~; b5 B9 L. e' F6 c
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country! B- Q( p% D) Z" m" B2 \0 z
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating+ r9 Y$ K. W7 |
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The( H5 E( w* u$ G- p5 v; q
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
3 [+ a& m( P# b8 Ftake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
# K$ A- q6 j5 x3 esingle-family housing looks overpriced.
; r% Y0 n) k( q4 a4 h" R Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
$ O" q i0 O$ Ttenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
' t, C9 P& C/ nmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push% J+ R, F( n4 V
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting- t: A" _2 E. v7 J1 K
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,% i2 o! F3 w* L, o `0 W& g5 I& B
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
3 Z/ `" }3 Y4 H- Qapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
# S: f. c1 q# j# z. ?7 _western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
" \, Q$ Q& N4 L) C0 ushortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into/ N) S% l0 ]$ f* E4 L
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 t# e/ |! c( _2 j: h* @4 Q
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.! Z, b0 r. {$ A. W3 ]# }# I% V" _
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Canadian Markets to Watch+ j. p8 n$ f5 k% |: e6 b, O/ z* P4 B
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
" }; ]/ s0 w5 v7 [; f; Kcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
3 U* r5 i0 j3 \5 ineighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back/ q& j. t9 l: [# K6 q+ t6 \. \
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in6 w9 ?7 p+ a) \9 L' r8 f
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
" d$ z* p' i ?projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
- P# H( p0 {- P, q5 i! Owest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
1 B N& _+ s- U8 \& Wprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain. Q2 v0 v9 ]/ U2 \ v
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.2 _% V* ~0 Q* o, s
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
3 B1 |" U* O' H3 p. R. T& h5 b9 Lratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.3 y& d/ A, k4 ^
& a' R' R9 t$ W
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one& s1 H' F }9 w, B- E. }) S
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a5 @: X6 a" s. P$ `. S6 q0 z# Z* h
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
# x$ k! {; _ M8 M4 [48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.2 S2 E7 a8 n) F1 z! a( w
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale* ?( | J) O) n. B4 b+ J" R
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
- `" Z- w" W! ^4 V0 tCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
7 {# v' I, k# e& wstrong, this market will continue to do well.
' O3 N4 q* Z3 l+ m a; ]2 N2 ]
$ G/ Y. L' K. N! q: \2 { Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
( f% `- e" s$ }7 X! H( Lbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
% k q& u/ ~# ~- j: \' ureal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
2 A7 W- B8 m7 [4 }* V- t! Dmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
8 G( N. a# Z# Sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy$ w9 v/ V. V% j3 |! M0 X7 [
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* s) {% O5 V8 g/ J6 kfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%) a" J1 h# s1 _* X$ B
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very& m3 b! u7 g/ p5 O( Q0 Y7 k/ _
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.$ G$ ?8 ~3 l6 F: |( m5 o4 Z
* i% R# J g) U Toronto
$ N$ j9 x$ H" g
5 W0 L9 J+ k* t1 k& P Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
$ q1 }2 d( Y1 |1 kmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
0 G' F% f: y# C* Rrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
- z, Y! i9 {6 Y0 i4 [3 R6 ~" s! n& A+ ^industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.# W1 |" U q5 d, | f
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square" T& n4 Q6 g9 L
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
4 C Z! i4 Q+ P' x" U6 a6 \8 eApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
) T. F5 p! X0 C$ X; {
* B+ ~7 Z6 l, g Montreal
* S( `( }9 F: J6 s7 `( j7 u; y0 D
; X! W1 ~( Y3 g0 G Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
% t8 f3 s! B+ E% agrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
+ E; R. Q% U9 R I7 L/ {5 hshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 W/ O% K' O1 ~1 V8 _# UCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ g+ C: ?/ l4 w4 i1 q) \3 lsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors _9 m5 {' R8 r4 W
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% e8 Y' t. d* y
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy- P% x) v% [4 B( B
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos- a0 t" N) C2 a& d3 L' r
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest6 }. Q! m) ^* w' J9 ?0 ~
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
. y% t" N' e( |# |/ ?% Y+ X$ l! @prices."
4 o5 L8 f4 e9 d! M! ] A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
5 B2 l; D3 Y, b* M s ewww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
+ t2 }; o7 a- j2 b7 m" F0 K0 S6 o
6 i% |( ?" Z: a s) W PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,9 k& m/ t+ l [+ G3 |6 U
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its. C }) m8 I0 g
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) f7 z! k6 E5 ~% W& p, Yacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop! y- p# O+ u" k, F1 L
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of4 G# k6 d5 Y6 T! j4 u$ d/ E: u
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its0 b/ x; H! L) q* g2 \. z
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
+ n$ ~0 v' b; s% c: B, [country.7 P! e" V% h+ h z/ W* N4 {# [/ H
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario0 B8 p3 K1 g4 N$ Z3 q- }- C
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the& y, G7 B- k. j
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,( W1 f4 x2 \6 R' p6 B1 j) l
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
" H- P; M$ A" Q$ Q4 E& H- @+ a/ Z( x2 ^, B4 |1 w
About the Urban Land Institute% [, d; c8 j$ K m: u
2 e! \7 T% ^( O5 S$ z The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
$ }( y7 v: V! b+ jresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide' D7 t9 l* z. J4 v+ x
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
5 f3 G- ~ O8 v3 u- T" W6 Gthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more) V4 f, i8 Z. f( i7 n
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development2 n9 o& O5 |% ~" K* \6 x
disciplines.
/ [9 l) ?, u# s: _& ?3 O The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
8 X( z( w2 ^) t7 MWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District7 t1 k o3 i P. w$ r; r _
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
6 H! B; c3 u+ x6 n0 K N3 a9 Fnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
3 l) G" A! R4 M Ohosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
# k+ A3 B1 V; z: P7 k7 r% O2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 ^. W* F" o' D9 b- C
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,+ |6 v1 R$ P- ^3 x0 E* |; j6 P
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please" p7 _* ~& r5 x) v7 w* v
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on% @" ]! B8 e$ L& o+ j
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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1 v; j7 q6 b, C* z |; n$ V+ _" f+ g" d1 O( F$ r& s* `+ H' B
" B e, I2 p2 P" Y0 `6 R) x
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% }# B+ ~3 x2 t$ t- l* F H9 r
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
) X* I. l& W' f8 nhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html2 H. b a2 `- C( M: Z5 u. n
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