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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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% N5 J- b3 m8 h" qDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
. T3 ?' d; i. p v& |+ W0 M0 Y TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
, u! {% L( o0 i! O# x4 y6 A( Lcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
' y( W& E' C' W6 \, A. Ras the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 t. S8 @4 V% [$ m jTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)4 o$ a# T' k. F
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more& C- \9 L8 L' u% B: C
upbeat.& _4 F9 ?) ^- W0 @1 F& h @9 Y
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded; w) J6 H8 r5 B. P6 [, R4 ?7 F
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects8 q; i6 ~4 F, }6 y' ?2 N
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real6 f* d) T: t! z4 w
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
: L% b% ]' q" yrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
7 l+ y6 k$ O5 V9 g& d0 v5 y+ }+ yOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world) n' E# n. F1 [0 ?9 r3 e
including Asia Pacific and Europe.6 K' y* L. b$ \+ f+ F
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
* B$ F8 G. T6 l; `, ~, sReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
$ H/ R2 @: n8 C' r$ }environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
7 g# a+ P: i, u% N) b; t0 zbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
" D$ Q v7 Z- b0 whighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."4 n/ R% f* V% ~5 W* y. D/ f
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the8 A( c5 P5 h) D* {& F2 H
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
- x) S {9 a" }: y# }0 c0 r$ Vspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey0 {* H* h3 ~1 }* R8 F9 l9 K8 `4 u2 X
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ [8 M2 K+ F3 Hcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
/ m' z6 ]( O: O3 A( ?very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
/ G: C) T+ U+ N- Y6 o: s The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian5 C l6 W; q4 Z: C: I- |2 z/ u
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
. U5 }; d) d/ u. H. J# J% R. lcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
% }) f" Q G$ I5 ?; u3 ydevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
1 D% c/ O: U* y& q3 @ Mespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
# I3 O, R" i% s1 j1 v& ^development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
4 {& z& D1 z# @" nresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
0 w+ Z3 d0 {& M: gtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
& S4 O. L* J4 Z- g/ J! C7 M. osingle-family housing looks overpriced.
/ s2 E; Q; K1 B/ Y8 X1 L) J! p* @ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
8 i( W! T" y5 h. X2 ^4 Ltenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
' @& _- _7 U% C- {metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
9 ]2 H/ j. Y7 g4 c' T6 phigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
@: i+ [- S# p% H# wnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
& g1 r Z" |5 v" C5 ~/ x ^and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental6 i+ N, F u/ n' V
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary2 J6 g7 `# Z+ m( a* Z$ r
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing+ D; c" D; ]# l* W t2 c
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
+ a0 q" f; A. O; |! othe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
5 o( z2 w+ i% V; M" t$ S2 Hin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch7 C+ f) g# N) ]! O6 T5 h* }5 H7 F* Q
+ [3 f6 o& D- |- q. @& m
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
0 @! Y1 H$ d* N+ [* ]0 }, Ccities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
; E0 Z) ?( l' E( J1 Cneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back a u9 T, K% f
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in0 t1 p% P! s4 i2 t
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
' P# G" I+ y' l o9 Kprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out- O1 [8 H! M/ v5 g4 v+ f
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
9 z$ O: e) ]( c2 I/ e3 X( M, wprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain, I) z s- \' h2 m, t
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
$ y, V- q ]6 Y/ C2 sToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
$ ^5 I* {+ l( sratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton2 a/ A0 L. f/ N7 a
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one7 k( b% i0 N. {/ i) `, u! ^% B
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
$ r, \9 ~$ {" H' K: _" Vbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
& e6 B- v1 c" e: K9 A2 @48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
* c7 u, @6 I1 }! K( JFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale! x. x; {: C$ S
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
" B, o# R1 o1 t$ {/ X3 |) H* uCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# i* o" ?; B" `% k) a Fstrong, this market will continue to do well." u" ?$ g$ K( S( v9 _
7 K9 t3 r+ P% I& B6 v2 A4 a* G Vancouver! Y( r3 ~0 M& F' \' v3 B T# D
4 m7 U9 h( n' d$ ?; \% v, D
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
+ Q% F* w; q1 p9 y" f5 Qbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous2 c7 q) L2 Q3 J8 |7 @
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the5 j; z; \, {7 v' q: B: h5 I9 L8 e0 K
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
, c0 v; Q( [, Q! agrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy, a/ M+ H! l4 b% z( T
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* }* z' Z, v$ d* e- @for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
5 _5 h# a! X+ h# |; k/ p" S" t9 Ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: \: I& ~2 y9 W) Q; K' p1 agood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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t/ T/ \+ D( @ E8 w0 J1 c Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
) t) T3 K9 k0 p" kmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is- a- N0 r4 W9 p& w1 {) m
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
1 B# N9 n0 o, \+ Q3 N" Aindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# E& L2 E9 d; sThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
1 {4 U+ z) W% i$ C' sfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
0 q4 S; h% l H* S; }8 f( CApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
5 O- S7 x8 i& V- J" p2 d# Z; `9 T) _
Montreal" i5 r; @; G/ ?1 O/ h, ^2 _
! R2 v K, i% q/ Z Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall8 g0 Z* Q' U6 ^ P2 A& \* W' @; I4 p
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up+ t# @3 C# g7 ?8 K
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in2 N% U$ R! y0 h. Y* F& b2 @
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
$ t! r6 Z- W6 ]' K0 h3 Xsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors& M# Y( C4 W0 q. j8 b# n
higher as a "hold" recommendation.8 E* k8 H W, i7 u v
1 K+ G0 P' v( i" O6 }9 F8 x
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years5 y. o2 m; p& v/ v
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy7 p! @$ q! ^; V4 D1 D! X
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
1 h# a; P2 R& K- D9 enear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
/ U/ A; V9 @' }4 b& W3 e1 A: Koverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current5 _( B0 I+ G2 m- ^
prices."
- h0 j+ {' L9 s. w5 g A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
( v, @' ]/ r w. Cwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.) R i5 N, \# {/ d3 F" I" P% z
) o x8 C- v; M About PricewaterhouseCoopers7 M4 ^; d# Y( |/ X
: T$ U' m3 L' |7 E0 Z2 @/ |
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
7 q2 f* ^; _8 ptax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its2 l1 A$ r5 _4 b/ n
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries5 `+ q V1 ?% V* @; f8 Q
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
. L. y/ {3 k/ z' V. jfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of+ C0 J' w4 w9 d$ r
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
& D# G4 f$ D- K, Srelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the: `1 t* `1 N5 N
country.! c# y$ a/ r7 k) X8 {
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario2 n) G6 m* T! a: U: V
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
0 \. i" X4 K8 y2 U' hPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
, R: d- f. O( }- X, B& P, L2 {" ?each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
8 p; _) ] s; s% J/ M E, L! i& _, j5 t1 ?# B ?2 W% G% W
About the Urban Land Institute
$ j. o$ |/ c, X! o7 g+ b( V7 o" c1 W4 B) M. S
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
0 b1 L( ]$ c ?research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
2 m+ ]" f: E/ Y5 `" `- q# Cleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
$ i+ X' ?! r a6 q' w4 b2 o3 K) dthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
: U/ u" c' ?5 P; P+ O% @& }7 R' mthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: Q- Z( u& W3 W0 q& {disciplines.
% S9 L3 s& i9 Q% n The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.8 B& i, B" r: u. }6 I
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
+ G7 x3 o% L% `7 G A" `9 {0 qCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is/ H# p0 o& d9 {4 I, ]3 W0 ]( R
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
T6 F9 l3 d# o! C0 Y i9 A [hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
1 d: g7 X9 Z) b5 v2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake( J9 L" f) M& D' Z' s% T5 m
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
) `- E* K, i6 G q: o/ bPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please0 M4 u2 @2 \: ]. q; T
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
1 }0 h' z) V9 Q# W9 xthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
% ]7 Z4 A0 }) ?9 \" P" Z" r* {5 T( a- }7 r6 M. B) ~4 r
) `5 Q* w4 r9 Y+ P" \) ~2 p
# m! C1 p; L3 _- O1 NFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,( C# ~' ^9 Z. @8 ?$ ^) w
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com* W1 k$ L d" s/ {; q! S
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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