卡城MLS的房屋积压成灾，数量又达新高

小福鸟

MLS home for sale inventory hits record high

http://www.canada.com/calgaryher ... 5-ab41-b1470bb29b5c

9 {8 U* h- y1 W; [) BMario Toneguzzi , Calgary Herald
Published: Friday, May 09, 2008
CALGARY - Calgary's MLS listings are currently "totally out of whack" surpassing the 10,000 mark in April and growing by the day while at the same time sales are slumping.
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Listings are at an all-time high for single-family homes and condominiums and they are being described as "extraordinarily high."

8 ~2 l% a+ n1 mApril MLS sales for single-family homes (1,363) in Calgary metro were the lowest for the month since 2000 while condo activity (581 sales) was the slowest since 2003 - even before the years immediately leading up to the city housing market boom in 2006 and 2007.

"If inventory was a tenth of what it is right now," overall sales would still be pretty good, said Gary MacLean, a realtor with Re/Max Real Estate Central.
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"But we have an inventory that is way out of control."
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) j" `' C; C  e6 a  |MacLean said there are a few reasons for the continuing rise in active listings in the Calgary real estate market.
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0 \$ l4 Y5 U7 g/ _/ E"You almost look at it like a perfect storm," said MacLean. "You've got cost of living issues. People's disposable incomes are being eroded quickly by food prices, gasoline, heating, and electricity. The cost of living in this town is going through the roof.

9 e. F, e. S& `- U( u9 a" [4 f8 Q"The other factor is a lot of people got in the market when it was peaked and paid a lot for their house . . . With the cost of living going through the roof, the first thing to go is the house because they're over-extended. They're house poor."
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MacLean said recent data showing declines in housing starts and residential building permits also have a ripple effect on the local real estate market, as do speculators.
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: e8 t4 W$ k# }/ t# A"Those are the people that went out and bought four, five, six, seven condos in a building that wasn't going to be built for two years. All of those buildings are now being completed. Those people did not want to be landlords. They were going to buy the condo, hold it until the building came due and put it on the market," said MacLean. "Well the problem is of course we have the highest number of condos in history for sale."

At the end of April, the Calgary Real Estate Board was reporting the month-end inventory in Calgary metro for single-family homes at 6,881 listings (2,881 in April 2007) and 3,214 for condos (898 in April 2007). The average MLS sale price for a single-family home in April in the city was $474,564, up 0.07 per cent from a year ago while condos dropped by 5.11 per cent to $312,586.

As of Friday, CREB's website was reporting active listings for single-family homes in the city were 6,999 with 1,369 sales in the past 30 days.

5 E/ t/ j7 i* t1 lTotal MLS inventory at the end of April under CREB, including towns outside Calgary, acreages and rural land, was 14,480, up more than 155 per cent from the 5,665 at the end of April 2007.
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! `: z# e3 z% H' z"We've never had anything like this . . . It is totally out of whack," said MacLean, adding the inventory keeps rising every day with sales not keeping pace. "March, April, May are the three best months of the year (for sales). We're not getting that. It's actually falling.
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3 X! Q( G$ f$ q8 }- S/ ?( {"We have a giant inventory and we're adding to it by hundreds a day. I don't see anything good coming out of this. It's a supply and demand scenario and prices rise when supply is low and prices fall when supply is high. And this is as high as it gets."

7 P2 G' @, p2 V' ]  e5 Y. NThe listings are "extraordinarily high," said Don Campbell, president of the Real Estate Investment Network in Canada. "The pendulum has swung to the exact opposite of what it did over the last couple of years. You go back to that analogy that we finished playing golf like Tiger Woods. Now, we're going to start playing like Mike Weir. What we're doing is reinventing our swing.
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"It's not a reason to panic unless you're trying to sell right now. Trying to sell right now is ridiculous. It would defeat the whole purpose for yourself."
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7 b1 G, T- y/ R' F' @Campbell said Calgary is still seeing market activity but there are slower sales and higher listings which leads to a buyer's market.
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"The normal course of action over the last five years is that's there a normal group of people who are listing their properties because they're moving or just moving up and we're going to continue to see those people trying to sell while the buyers are sitting back saying 'you know what, I'm in no hurry. I'm going to sit back and wait'," said Campbell, the author of two books - Real Estate Investing in Canada, and 51 Success Stories from Canadian Real Estate Investors.
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"And what happens it becomes self perpetuating . . . We're going to see less sales this year. We're going to see more listings this year. I think there's fear in the market."
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He said the province's "economic fundamentals haven't changed" but the "emotional fundamentals have changed."

This is the highest level of total active listings we have on record right now, said Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
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"It wasn't that long ago that we had a record high level of housing starts. All those houses are built and it means people are moving in there and selling their existing homes. That's where the supply's coming from," said Louie.

"There are also investors who might not want to when there's price pressure it's not a good time to be speculating. That speculative market is probably cleaned out. I would say in terms of people trying to sell if you're a speculator you're probably selling. You wouldn't be adding to the demand by buying in this kind of market right now because prices are wobbly and speculators don't really like to participate in markets when price trends are not going up."

1 D$ i0 `0 v4 I& m: O6 iAnother factor is negative interprovincial migration in recent months so some people are leaving Calgary and selling their houses.
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3 w) _, v6 w& ~  X[ 本帖最后由 小福鸟 于 2008-5-9 19:04 编辑 ]

TDBank

一看见这鹰文,就跟变成小白兔一样,怕啊.

西红柿酸

东南风

lington

最喜欢这一段，估计要得罪人了，呵呵
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0 _, n+ ^6 f8 o"Those are the people that went out and bought four, five, six, seven condos in a building that wasn't going to be built for two years. All of those buildings are now being completed.
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现在呢，买了这么多Condo的人要开始供楼了，5个Condo, 不轻松的。供不起的时候，经济压力会逼他们一个一个吐出来的，这个时候就是出手的时候了。这个较量的过程要不了一年，等着看吧。现在价钱不跌反而涨，不过没人买。涨吧，涨到你们挺不住的时候，你们还得抛。

whzss97

pacibridge

卡城也不行了吧。具往矣，属风流房价，还看爱城。
爱城还要涨，涨涨涨涨！

flagship

原帖由 pacibridge 于 2008-5-11 08:54 发表
卡城也不行了吧。具往矣，属风流房价，还看爱城。
爱城还要涨，涨涨涨涨！

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我的宝贝

原帖由 lington 于 2008-5-9 22:09 发表
最喜欢这一段，估计要得罪人了，呵呵
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"Those are the people that went out and bought four, five, six, seven condos in a b ...

& [2 h& a( R; E+ p: O% b这个还得看房屋租赁市场吧，最起码我朋友的CONDO一周不到就租出去了，价钱还不错的说。。。。

kai517

我3月中旬找房子的时候， 简直就是打一个地方， 一个地方就有房子， 都空着， 而且房租还有些下降。 很快房价很快就会大降的。 我们都在等待。 哈哈