油砂成本到底是多少？-醉酒醉话

醉酒当歌

很多人问过：油砂成本到底是多少？看完下述文章，你会很清楚油砂，也会明白我说的４０刀的成本不是没有根据．很多人还停留在多年前的数据．

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Oil_Sands

' W! B- p! J/ o: _请注意这段：
7 C$ [/ f& _) \$ ~- lThe capital cost of the equipment required to mine the sands and haul it to processing is a major consideration in starting production. The NEB estimates that capital costs raise the total cost of production to C$18 to C$20 per barrel for a new mining operation and C$18 to C$22 per barrel for a SAGD operation. This does not include the cost of upgrading the crude bitumen to synthetic crude oil, which makes the final costs C$36 to C$40 per barrel for a new mining operation.

: \6 h, a* X- V& B" ]' q5 JTherefore, although high crude prices make the cost of production very attractive, sudden drops in price leaves producers unable to recover their capital costs—although the companies are well financed and can tolerate long periods of low prices since the capital has already been spent and they can typically cover incremental operating costs.
) k* l+ L+ v, E' p( k
, {' I% ~% q1 }6 z1 B* W( C＊＊＊最后别忘了现实，今天油价$40.5，可以想象ａｌｂｅｒｔａ会经历怎么的打击，这个冬季但愿不要太漫长。***

6 c  h9 x& a# ~* d/ I[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2008-12-5 22:09 编辑 ]

紫光

这个成本是会变的，因为人工成本是可以降的。而人工成本在总体成本里是非常大的一块。
只不过吃亏的是我们这些打工的人。
* }. p9 Y6 L$ o' _+ m不过到时候也由不得你。

醉酒当歌

当然会变，但是目前就是４０刀的成本，很多工程公司的人都知道这个成本。
  S9 v: y& C- T* K2 i" D, \: ?
9 j' [8 M- {/ N' \: Y0 ^7 J

原帖由 紫光 于 2008-12-5 22:09 发表
这个成本是会变的，因为人工成本是可以降的。而人工成本在总体成本里是非常大的一块。
9 H8 u$ N( W9 f7 I+ `5 _3 i只不过吃亏的是我们这些打工的人。
不过到时候也由不得你。

紫光

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2008-12-5 22:11 发表
当然会变，但是目前就是４０刀的成本，很多工程公司的人都知道这个成本。

解雇一批人马上就变了。

醉酒当歌

变也不会低很多，第一个帖子的文章，有０６年的成本．当然低些有好处．早期的油砂项目就是因为油价太低停产或者不赚钱．

6 ]& [* P. x0 {& d

原帖由 紫光 于 2008-12-5 22:14 发表
4 {& u5 X' e% r, K; n
解雇一批人马上就变了。

[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2008-12-5 22:20 编辑 ]

ComfortHardwood

唉，挖个油容易吗，整得比牛奶还便宜啦，挖油还不如去挤牛奶。本来这个油砂就不是高产，成本高，这下石油公司改郁闷了。不过谁让那帮石油大亨那么有钱地，该整整它们了。

ComfortHardwood

听说石油前期投资是最大地，包括勘探什么的。。。不懂。。。。

carlzheng

唉，挤个奶容易吗，整得比矿泉水还便宜啦，挤奶还不如去打水。本来这个牛就不是高产，成本高。还碰上三聚氰胺。不过谁让那帮牛奶大亨那么没良心的，该整整他们了！！！

自由的像风

　　Syncrude 油沙开采成本自称是３０刀，我也不知道，这是那种货币，要是美元结算，将近４０加元，可是我看到的是，１２月４号，出厂价大约４８加元，４３美元．
3 \# R( {9 I. p　　不知道，你们的货币单位是哪国的？

大漠孤烟

Canadian Natural: Current Oil Sands Projs Viable At $20/Bbl
* z( R; R: h6 W: O$ ^
+ z' h/ D& [# }7 \7 {* e
/ r( n- y6 w* l+ A! X% r2:26pm ET (Dow Jones Newswires)

0 {1 p# T+ S4 p8 ~9 S; R' w; [+ C
# p! x2 U- w% G) l

! M1 {% w' M; m& kOTTAWA (Dow Jones)--Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) can still profit from its existing oil sands operations even if oil prices fall to $20 a barrel, Vice Chairman John Langille said Wednesday.

Operating costs for the company's Primrose in situ project, which softens the bitumen with steam before pumping it to the surface, are around C$18 a barrel, Langille told investors at a conference in New York.

% I6 o! \7 X5 I- T"If oil's $20 U.S., that's still $30 Canadian so we're still making money," Langille said.
# K8 G7 [3 Z4 _, k
0 x" Y6 S. m2 w; @, S$ g. [Oil prices would have to get "very, very low" before the company would consider decreasing production, he added.
( U" H9 |2 N/ l& V
However, oil sand mines, such as Canadian Natural's C$9.7 billion Horizon project, would probably never shut down completely because of the high costs of stopping then restarting production, Langille said.
9 ?( j3 N: l. D# e9 p
1 ~+ `: `, A3 `% J% Z8 @5 N"You would look at ways of getting your costs down to suit the marketplace," he said, noting that operating costs for oil sand mines were also very low. "In order to expand them or add new ones with the current cost structure, you need a much higher (oil) price."

' _# Z: c; r, D1 B( K, ZLike several of its oil sands peers, Canadian Natural has rejigged capital-intensive plans in the wake of plummeting crude prices, which have shed $100 from July's records and were trading just below $47 a barrel Wednesday. Last month, Canadian Natural halved its 2009 spending plans to C$4 billion and indicated delays were likely for Horizon's future development phases.

; i/ _7 `5 q" S0 UShares were trading recently at C$46.27 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, down 2.1%.

, q5 q3 n2 b+ V. p1 |, V  ?-By Hyun Young Lee, Dow Jones Newswires; 613-237-0669; hyunyoung.lee@dowjones.com
, P& x+ m7 |/ T) F9 R
/ j) m0 u- J& r9 c- y& ?9 j2 W
/ b' A, v+ O! g' o; Y7 BClick here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=DhiqXiPFgwaKAmv0bXc80w%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.
( A8 a8 c; e' {" w3 O' V# o
, F  A# |- O6 Q[ 本帖最后由 大漠孤烟 于 2008-12-6 23:43 编辑 ]

zhucalvin

原帖由 大漠孤烟 于 2008-12-6 23:40 发表
Canadian Natural: Current Oil Sands Projs Viable At $20/Bbl


# Q, W3 Z- a& Z6 i& q* ]2:26pm ET (Dow Jones Newswires)

" h- e* L" j9 @

; j$ w- m5 N) S6 d7 Y! W4 C
4 Z# O: @' t# G; y; c+ ~0 w2 COTTAWA (Dow Jones)--Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) can still profit from its existi ...

# b" H0 f, y1 U# `- y( o2 n

牛肉粉丝

油价再低，已经上马的项目是不会停的，新的项目肯定是要缓建。
, m/ `% x4 \6 z6 w9 P0 r/ I! d6 z石油公司不是傻子，难道他们不知道油价是有起有落的吗，他们上项目的时候都是做了全盘的考虑的。
7 }4 F2 J/ z6 u% {) ?石油价格总体趋势是一步一步走高的，其中肯定是有低谷，有高点。只有新能源真正诞生了，石油的末日才会到来。

gvjz

怎么我工作中接触的油公司甚么CNRL, ENCANA ,COMPTON , ConocoPhillips ,等等·，等等·不·一一列出·都在砍项目，往年冬天都是忙的脚不点地，今年冬天不一般，大家闲着比较多，走走个个小城市（RIG ）钻机摆满堆场，如果对加拿大石油工业有所了解都应该知道往年冬天有多忙，石油公司确实不是傻子

山东

前几年几个大的consulting公司敢把预算翻番用（有些工程都是B为单位的工程），估计往后的几年他们是不敢了。他们一旦不乱来，油公司能省很多钱，有些项目可能会重新启动。在上个月的一个workshop上，一个suncor的大佬说他很感谢经济萧条，这样公司的很多规章制度才会对constractor们起作用。

ComfortHardwood

原帖由 carlzheng 于 2008-12-6 22:16 发表
' J0 z" b: a# w, z  Q. C( I唉，挤个奶容易吗，整得比矿泉水还便宜啦，挤奶还不如去打水。本来这个牛就不是高产，成本高。还碰上三聚氰胺。不过谁让那帮牛奶大亨那么没良心的，该整整他们了！！！

4 C3 ^- |: r5 |' `" e  Q$ L; H