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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?6 C$ T) {9 S! B" s
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.! [8 M6 w+ s! ~$ t$ v# w
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.: u; ], j. C. n
3 i- C6 M9 Q) v6 |. h8 b: Y"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.9 R4 N2 R, ^3 b
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.. B2 L. D% m& X3 J' i8 V3 W
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.
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"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.: N7 U( f5 C) ~2 z) i0 S# N6 [
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.9 M9 p: @# t$ W3 `/ e% \8 @! w- i- v
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.3 h6 [. a2 R8 b
! H4 E8 O! ^; [/ H5 IThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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. Q1 ]( j7 q; c: }5 S"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.( z. ^* K# \5 V% E& P
/ b) r! A( N y1 p4 K1 _8 tIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.: H/ Q% o& s) z8 q O" \
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this.", j+ s; w+ T- E0 W
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.9 I" F$ _# K/ p' J
* `! E& ^6 B& GHirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.. d+ X L) z! e; p# u8 t9 ?* L4 s
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.: A, Z( X: o& E
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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4 ~& { w3 }$ p( C6 _But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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^) v$ I& Q( L% z/ |5 o' ]7 V7 ?8 F"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said. Z; }9 b. s2 B8 R: y. s7 E- D
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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