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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
( `: {) `5 R2 h" D- w4 YPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.# M1 T, k1 B+ X& F- W2 O, j0 n0 p5 k3 Z
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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/ E5 o G" c# X* |+ ]1 k3 xCalgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.: t9 }& c0 T) X5 y: E( B
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.7 x5 ~) F1 U: _) A6 j" I
# F( ]' A% f" r1 K5 o9 @+ r) S) O"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.
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. O% K" k: W9 e& v, K$ ^"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."% |6 G/ C t( H& T6 m' A4 I2 Q
9 _- p* ?7 i1 T3 n5 r J- uIn Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.. ]; s% D: A, ^! v V2 B) @
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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+ J$ I5 f0 i3 P3 wThe price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.6 O( F* d$ [: N$ M0 Z
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.! t& F2 V1 W1 m+ D# r) k' m1 X& b
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.( T2 `7 P/ A1 U L1 D3 m! D0 Y: Y
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."# G6 L5 _# t% k3 e! f
& q$ l5 ?: B% ]1 J& A; _5 i VAnother explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday., U2 z V& P% A2 S; A# _& A: _
) K m# l! g( x7 e, h w"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.- C* @/ V1 h6 F4 L
; q0 K" m, |. s"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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; ] }" q, w2 i% }6 B"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises.") d$ a6 ^2 K2 `8 W" U5 z' m) j! {
; g9 @6 g: d- _, _; I0 n. L' vBut Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said./ C3 U( x+ }2 j
9 u h1 I$ m' J"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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