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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
3 l+ {+ ]3 s# KPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
' j2 X X% \# ^( s, _ ]Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine3 N% O3 s! @9 k; S% G3 j G, ]# e
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.% s1 _- S- s* p
5 F0 u+ i, D5 u8 \) c8 X: ]The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.; o% r: k V1 e! S O1 B4 ^* I
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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+ s! t/ ~ c1 |' rBut Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.
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3 F: R H: x" @0 {8 W"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.- V# [( s1 z/ F3 _7 G# q0 X
& `4 m2 s+ I* W* y: p: z"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."# N5 Q5 J( d* C
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.4 H4 V8 P; ?+ h* V. B D) S2 k
; I+ W5 P S1 s: h* r c$ f* RVancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.7 i& N2 |! |$ s9 ?7 G) `5 S
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.- y; t0 `& n4 \
' u/ m' e8 ?' j$ m8 h+ E# J5 iThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago." h6 @2 B7 a8 L5 N( e r3 R
' Y: ]6 ^: q" |" v"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.; A2 K, X( X1 o6 G, B
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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4 }9 p4 H% `7 K2 m( r"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."% {7 ^+ }- Z5 @) |3 w {
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.: x3 g* T- L4 |6 v8 `2 A* g/ a
/ u5 z0 m* G0 I, g"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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: j2 W4 O# g9 oHirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.2 S- `+ g* _) }
/ _8 C: o! s/ P5 I/ ]"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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; M# t7 c/ ~- t; @"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."# t# ~3 [& q0 o" d
# E! d; W6 z! [% G6 c( Z! mBut Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.2 r8 q$ c# Q' t6 G' V4 S
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.# @! x8 B! }" h/ J' T9 K% X4 G
) H( e* |: H% A6 Q; V"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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