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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?# p& _: v" y2 r9 f3 S) e+ X
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
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" g Z6 ~2 t7 w! D) ACALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.6 N; h- z$ R( C7 I2 a$ D
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com." T U; a4 i, e
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre./ X6 r Q0 Z7 @/ V0 T- D1 L" }: q
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.& x( g& U) ^0 c3 {
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.+ }: f- i- {( T- w7 T$ {
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"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.% S/ ]9 U) W/ M( H
# v7 K' ~* L( \: \Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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4 B, E3 R- K0 z% J9 nThe price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July. W, v$ L+ E8 @- p5 i4 b! e
9 \/ {* N# L# m) W6 RThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.. B9 L) H8 P# {# n$ E
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.) m1 F: C5 z8 b" a
- L( O$ ], p+ @1 wBut those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.( x- w, a9 f) N2 Y8 }$ ^
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.' {* J0 r9 y0 n" ]; k
& U% x6 u' m% I- B' ~: C v# i1 z"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."! O# q( Q# T. r+ B
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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/ j- q' l- y" t: w4 Z5 p5 p/ r0 q0 H"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.1 Z) W# B" h8 s" E: y
) j4 v! g% B) T+ j% ]. i7 E/ v5 Y8 |"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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