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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?0 G7 o4 N4 B2 ]7 j# S7 O; D
Published: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET* y& M" i- W! K/ y2 S
Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.
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: k* W! x( F8 T3 Q) ^+ ?6 m/ NThe average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.9 M) n" t. F- d; \8 Q' @1 @! F9 Y: I
4 G; b- F7 T* Y/ I5 q"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.. T- i1 ~3 _ z! ~* Y
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.7 H/ l) Y5 s G# i
+ U$ h* V# i6 W0 J: f"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."2 u+ N- l) w* j3 t' s+ ^. w3 b
; j. I- z B5 K2 `In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.) ^: d, ~% L; s! U) H! }$ w" P
# t- t$ n2 Q8 l- eVancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.' ~7 t2 q1 M2 x' H9 p% n: O+ e) J
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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( [3 z l L( K) P. U1 q! d' }The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.! _/ L" j) `9 {
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"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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: U/ Y, v k' qIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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1 p/ U8 M9 Z/ l5 IAnother explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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& [+ H! j6 Z( w! U# e2 ^4 G6 K- ~Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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) x! w! {2 O# Y3 |- t, y"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries./ X; k& d" l, V
. c/ Z3 o" A) l3 t0 r"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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