冬天真的到alberta了

每天一点 · 发表于 2009-2-19 14:14

Recession, 15,000 job losses forecast: Alberta finance minister
Last Updated: Thursday, February 19, 2009 | 12:02 PM MT Comments44Recommend40
CBC News
省财政厅长宣称：阿省面临衰退，会丢掉15000个工作岗位。
Alberta is facing a recession and 15,000 lost jobs, Finance Minister Iris Evans announced Thursday in her latest economic update.

在连年强劲经济增长之后，今年省经济将会萎缩2%。
"After years of robust economic growth, the provincial economy is forecast to contract by two per cent over this next year," Evans said.
全省失业率将会从去年的3.6%升到5.8%。
The province's unemployment rate will rise to 5.8 per cent from last year's rate of 3.6 per cent, she said.

"We've always said that we were not immune to the global recession," Evans said. "While we are in the midst of a global recession, we are better positioned than almost anybody else on the planet."

The province is blaming low energy prices and the global credit crunch for the change in the province's economic fortunes.

Evans is forecasting the economy will improve at the beginning of 2010.

While she said the province is facing a $1 billion deficit in a story published Thursday morning in the Edmonton Journal, Evans was reluctant to repeat that at the Thursday news conference, saying more definite numbers will come when she releases her third-quarter economic update next week.

"In the operations of the government, we don't expect the operating budgets of the departments to be any different than what they projected," she said.

While the province's investments in the Heritage Savings Trust Fund have taken a hit, she said, the province intends to use money left over from the 2007/08 fiscal year to help make up revenue that would have come from the fund.

"That's going to supplement the revenue, take the place of revenues we'd have had from the Heritage Trust Fund … and help us offset what otherwise would be more of an operating deficit."

The news marks a dramatic turn in Alberta's finances.

Just last summer, when oil was at a high of $147 US a barrel, the province was forecasting an $8.5 billion surplus.

The drop in crude oil prices — crude for March delivery is now trading at less than $40 US a barrel — and turmoil in the world economy put a dent in that surplus. By the end of the second quarter on Sept. 30, the projected surplus had shrunk to $2 billion.

yxia · 发表于 2009-2-19 16:29

Job losses expected to hit 15,000 as Alberta forecasts recession this year
Jim Macdonald, THE CANADIAN PRESS
February 19, 2009
EDMONTON - Alberta's energy-rich economy is tumbling into a recession after leading the country for years and the province is now projecting 15,000 lost jobs this year.

"Many Albertans will have a tough year ahead," Finance Minister Iris Evans predicted Thursday. "We've always said that we were not immune to the global recession. But we are better positioned than almost anybody else on the planet."

Plunging oil prices have taken a huge bite out of revenues and Alberta is now expecting spending to outpace revenues by more than $1 billion this year - the first sign of red ink in 15 years.

"The deficit is absolutely there. I think it's pretty obvious," said Evans.

Years of economic growth have also come to a crashing halt and the province's gross domestic product is expected to shrink by two per cent.

Market meltdowns have also reduced Alberta's rainy-day Heritage Savings Trust Fund by nearly $3 billion to roughly $14 billion.

Alberta led the nation in job growth for several years, but is now expecting unemployment to jump from last year's average of 3.6 per cent to 5.8 per cent in 2009.

Evans conceded that her news is a huge turnaround for a province that just last summer was projecting a near-record budget surplus of $8.5 billion and was anticipating $2 billion extra as recently as November.

"Plunging energy prices, unsettled international financial markets, a drop in demand for our exports and other effects of the global recession have put Alberta in a much different position than we were in just six months ago," she said.

Economist Andre Plourde said it should come as no surprise that the resource-based economy is taking a hit now that oil prices have dropped from a summer high of US$147 a barrel to below US$35.

"It's clear that this is a global recession that we're experiencing," said Plourde, a professor at the University of Alberta. "Alberta is not an exception to what is going on internationally."

But he added that Alberta is in relatively good shape to weather a recession because it has no debt and has billions of dollars in savings.

"In comparison to other jurisdictions, I think this is an enviable position."

Scott Hennig with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation said he was surprised to hear that Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservative government has decided to declare a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Hennig said private projections he has seen have suggested Alberta and Saskatchewan would be able to avoid the kind of economic numbers that add up to a recession.

Alberta is still in much better shape than other provinces, he said.

"Well, 15,000 lost jobs is pretty small in comparison to what southern Ontario is facing," said Hennig, who added that Alberta's unemployment rate will still probably be the lowest in the country.

Evans blames the 2008-09 deficit on losses in the heritage fund, which usually contributes about $1 billion to general revenues.

Although Alberta outlawed budget deficits a decade ago, there are certain circumstances under which deficits are still allowed, explained Finance Department spokesman Bart Johnson.

"Under the law you can run a deficit if your non-resource revenue is less than forecast in the budget, which is now the case."

Evans said Alberta will continue to spend billions of dollars on building projects to help stimulate employment.

"It is particularly critical during economic times like these," she said. "It gets people working, improves and builds needed roads, schools and hospitals, and injects capital into the economy."

The finance minister said the government expects Alberta's economy to rebound, starting with modest growth in 2010.

Alberta is well-positioned for recovery, with low unemployment and inflation, a competitive tax regime and billions of dollars in savings to deal with "the ups and downs of volatile resource revenues," she said.

"As we emerge from these turbulent times, we will position Alberta to be the engine of the Canadian economy."

The taxpayers association has been warning for years that the province is too reliant on resource revenues.

"We have a huge budget bubble that is being fuelled by oil and gas," said Hennig. "We're going to go through this boom-bust cycle when it comes to our revenues if they don't fix this."

The government should be considering an economic policy shift to help soften the recession's impact, Alberta's opposition parties suggested.

NDP Leader Brian Mason said Alberta needs to process more of its own resources rather than exporting raw materials to the United States.

"The government could start by eliminating bitumen exports to the United States, which are simply sending our jobs down the pipeline."

Liberal finance critic Dave Taylor said he expects Alberta's savings funds will take a major hit before the province's economy rebounds.

"We're going to have to cash in some of our savings, some of our investments, and we're not going to get a very good price for them."

浪里黑条 · 发表于 2009-2-19 16:43

如果衰退发生在去年就好了，唉。

PANTS · 发表于 2009-2-19 17:53

原帖由 浪里黑条 于 2009-2-19 16:43 发表
$ T. ]7 M; ^3 z+ D9 U; q* c& Z如果衰退发生在去年就好了，唉。

这是为什么呢？

yj151 · 发表于 2009-2-19 23:15

原帖由 浪里黑条 于 2009-2-19 16:43 发表 ; q9 R: w M. D% @( I5 f
如果衰退发生在去年就好了，唉。

去年买了大房吗？

浪里黑条 · 发表于 2009-2-20 08:18

原帖由 PANTS 于 2009-2-19 17:53 发表 2 Y2 E* g( z: {
1 c f% K: Q s7 f# k
这是为什么呢？

那样的话，今年就没有衰退了。

icing · 发表于 2009-2-20 14:07

yingxiy · 发表于 2009-2-20 16:30

郭女侠芙蓉 · 发表于 2009-2-20 19:19

同感

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