埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2273|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 d1 O, Y5 x& u* ?

$ e' a( _7 x9 u7 D. j0 oTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. $ I' y6 R+ A: @1 G. @% W: g2 M
4 e) g7 z* D# _; r  ~
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
5 S8 h$ }, F  `+ b. ?" {6 n* A9 I. t5 H  Q0 d. [# T9 w
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 n; q+ o, ]/ L

2 a- r9 [/ Q2 e9 G2 [" sNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
% [' P  z; q- L5 ^  O! m- B& A* I' U2 `+ k3 s4 K
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
: ~" B0 E2 G" b! D* b1 U# p2 Q$ C7 P- z5 T9 i$ o3 }
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
* A. K4 |2 T" g. u; A. R* r$ H3 m* x8 V* \  W1 l
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
8 T8 y% ?6 `' j8 ?- ?
" z& g" ~$ t: {* oMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
3 x& B5 _) G& G$ ]0 o9 P! |4 T; q. p+ H
% H0 s; M/ u" e* H% w0 Q  w$ }http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
9 [" H; d8 L+ {$ q& Z

* [# F8 s& y5 E& S5 a/ STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
$ E8 u/ e) B; `3 e8 q( K& x  m, o/ J: Q: ]
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' O1 a7 A, @  P: Z  N* m
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
- u% q/ f' o% }2 `, p  }6 b
+ k% F! K. Y: p# Q' P' \( N: @[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
0 F! R0 e; {9 v9 d跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
4 S3 ~; P0 l1 u- d
很多人都回学校深造去了# `' u# b  [) p1 k7 d/ p
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- J  N- J" u; [" n0 E$ u
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, D: U6 o; G6 Z8 z- m) ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: L  O) g6 `$ m# K+ C" A( u
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
  ^! V3 _0 E: W2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. }; x2 M$ h9 ^1 U' S6 Y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! ^' K: Y7 p. b1 `# cfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ ]" r6 {- R* _( W0 u0 D5 L  ithe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 Q9 Q: F* X( e! U" B4 g
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( I- h. H6 K+ ^2 M$ @7 {8 J) u. J. dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* \/ ?* r/ J2 _1 N; v: E3 X
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 ~$ c* x+ F% S! z7 {
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 a; B0 d3 _2 g9 l* h4 G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. W7 ^" z2 E4 @6 {, l9 k* I3 \year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ S& ^1 @' a0 Z9 J; b) c8 c  ]" ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! {! a9 G2 p# X! x7 `
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 B* R. O: s; M7 F  J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  A4 ], s4 ~' N; d# ?1 w' ^Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* Y2 H  \5 |. C9 C9 khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
" T( o7 P/ [) V5 `. `/ z  J/ Pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( H0 C' ]9 o$ r4 T% Qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; h# Z" L8 V, c, N4 s% b( O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% Q5 t) @& Q$ j( Nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. q) J# x  n# Q5 k
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 U( I+ L! e3 k5 L
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! b' V. c+ Z4 F8 Nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; y( W( ~+ |/ ?/ U. I+ Q! z
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, e" W4 W* r2 f$ N2 H; M5 wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 U8 P( R0 z3 v: {# u6 ~3 T% R! R1 {
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 r' m1 L  L, x/ H1 m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 j3 G7 }: q3 m3 v7 o7 `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" @  ^, {. P5 h+ K9 p% munsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# V4 P0 K8 q3 Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
3 D) M1 q, H& L: G+ Zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 d5 i. \( B* }7 o0 Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories, j0 y9 I$ [% x0 T
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ B8 o, n: m. L* j7 R* J9 }
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 k' [, R) N% z4 |  X6 C5 c
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 a5 D! [3 F$ L
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! Z+ ^+ q7 y  q8 S4 w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 E6 p6 Q- l9 A* Y" K" t3 V
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! ]- a9 e/ |. T( W/ |7 mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- Z( _% i- O9 `3 i) T& ?prices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 X+ O/ A: k% A- j
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
/ D9 e' {$ ^6 d- [5 [1 oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" {+ @: {) [& [: `The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 T+ t+ Q$ w# [0 f
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' a7 f. P# U( j% U
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; A, U% o# ]: @9 R! u$ u6 U* I9 t
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' a+ x' M3 s* I3 Y( k0 M
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 ?% W, _/ k2 N8 z* W( i$ dAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 c& E% B! ?- j
leg down over 2009.
# G9 ?% l3 Z( T+ g+ ^8 h% R4 c& B- c- |
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 O8 T* V( r- |  u8 l# MAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

4 x7 E3 x+ D9 ]- G  H9 \
$ x4 ], d; W; h) {. N[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" C# |0 l; Q0 h2 L" z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
1 j4 W' L$ C( `& H" c: f- x9 T# V
1 e3 N% c( A& p" O& U1 Yhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments( {# v% h6 k: o7 ?) f) _
# @1 _; f7 v5 V2 ]
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-23 16:07 , Processed in 0.273272 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表