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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta G+ Z# t- H0 W$ }. S4 J% A3 v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 T/ t- E& o, S, M8 u4 a' i) T8 ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 C0 V8 F. \( v; f, h
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! }0 _" P. U( S8 H( N2 r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; c* D6 x: q9 G+ R/ L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 S* B9 ?6 b v: t; jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 H/ q8 O* \3 f: D& i4 o7 S9 ?
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 Y) \: p$ z% I1 m+ d% b1 e
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" K9 G# \# w9 [7 g$ Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 g1 Y( o) X, x4 T/ X( d* k; f) Wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined7 j9 ^- s4 e1 ?- J
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ P$ B; c+ ^' P) ]* f* q: Sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ o1 x& I i1 M- D
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: n% ^6 G$ F# B4 P- L' e2 Nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 r o+ Q6 a- ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during
. `3 t$ _* W& Y$ `2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) Q- m: G7 r3 U- \Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ j h6 Z' _/ y! t; x% ]homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ v7 N4 t2 }# {1 zduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 B' p5 M5 z6 B' H3 k8 t2 Vhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; W+ J! b5 i' ?5 xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! R# T, H4 m0 e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 T- H. m7 o) d _' l1 a7 ]
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ O6 X* J* d* g- Z9 |
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is j' n4 z4 ^' F) p4 U3 Y5 s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' y7 [1 V+ V" e5 Q5 E7 i& o
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 s8 R0 ?: W }# z" x1 U
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 p) `5 r5 N* l/ Obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
) T, c/ ?" D, }% v' C9 Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 L. c+ W% D4 R6 R. `8 lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 t. D* g! Z9 W, b7 m8 j. Y( Q9 _* f
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest E* {/ w5 l& ~! ^. X1 f- H$ U: [
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 j) N9 [' ]' P2 E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! [( l$ f1 p7 \( I8 D4 h! Pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. s+ P+ S- f; {/ q8 ^- D
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, @: |9 o9 c- @8 e2 k7 I1 irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* Z7 {: U2 a* s; N) q9 _! _The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# T! G! V/ \$ Z4 q# d0 Rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& W z7 k, m" K) W7 BAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan3 S2 O( d; ]/ V& g3 l3 ~. ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" F) }% H' N. _3 J8 Yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: k4 |; z, H6 s/ _4 [5 _
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& [1 K, r5 s# tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' J0 _8 Z }5 {% ~ s+ M1 @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ p1 i5 u& {7 Z" X9 [7 x
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( D8 ]( H' D# D% M% eresale price in February is evidence that past prices$ x; C4 T0 E6 i3 [' s& f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
4 l! b: F, q; {& x5 yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: K/ ?6 E7 G* z5 A& v9 N7 q4 f
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 {2 T3 b( N7 V/ m7 w
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, M* S6 K- m9 |" Q# Y; C4 Qleg down over 2009.
( F) S* }- e$ e3 R" c2 l- {5 R5 l& H7 E }0 N* j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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