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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 V w6 c2 f( oWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ d( c0 \5 H$ H) [8 lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 y, g# o) o# V# M) i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% a: B# z1 u& b2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% P4 ^' L' Q. Z. Y+ |
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 q- B4 v! n* |. j8 U- w pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 X2 A. H4 N5 H9 }- ]- m; V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- a" m1 R2 D9 Q7 l' l7 j3 p
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ ^# s0 f+ }& H7 [/ [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) s3 d, I! N3 L, n( Q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, z5 e! O3 h8 v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ K9 T$ Y, C( D7 P2 P/ s
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ g; w' ? C" Zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' }- B- g0 b6 Z5 [- {homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ P( R" k+ u" [3 [& O30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 a2 n- i6 O5 d4 a2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# Y; a5 h: [+ F1 t- AEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 u( k6 E: O8 \# t5 [& \3 K/ Xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' v6 \ V: v4 l7 Wduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! J, g# \% K% ]/ D1 g/ }0 S
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* c- E4 C1 F7 Y4 P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals m& L# `- V6 W, w m( [5 B
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 `, u u) l) j% I& gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& E& L# h; l5 m- S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( J& }5 z- _: c. l$ |6 Z8 Fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of% M" ?1 n" o- u$ s7 d! N5 q
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' e/ a# q5 Q! U& X1 h
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 m$ p! Q/ o4 T9 e6 J3 Ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! v8 H. e( a0 X2 F, r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in; \) I# n" m2 T- [! z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
P& f* x' @5 ^/ z/ C+ D: aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" Y y2 r7 `; r& |
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the D) X1 t8 d) C! h3 R5 J9 l9 o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 _1 g2 Q, H/ a# J" z' W5 q, H- B
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 e. d" q! x# }& B; f# V
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& N6 g( v% _( A2 Z( C+ Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- P, U" u0 Q( T" n) n& P/ ~/ C
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; |& F% q r/ Q5 I" a% d
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 }; g( Z8 N7 C/ q2 W! @9 x/ f
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* t# Q y1 Y$ U0 b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& b2 A, w8 `) P3 |$ M9 T
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 D- |/ I7 t! y! U7 C- L# E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 T3 b5 A2 t+ u7 ?0 Z4 _
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 m3 j4 G9 P5 Y- jon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" E2 \! F! A4 W- j$ \' A/ I4 XThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( a& \/ I: h* o2 R* Y+ L: K' t z+ M* Nresale price in February is evidence that past prices, c! b/ N4 d. T$ m7 z, x' O2 q9 _
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 ^/ W1 y! N" ]- H( [& c9 Ohomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ S7 N4 v3 Z) P1 L8 g0 ^, D) `deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- s- a7 X/ J4 E3 Z. G9 ~+ s- d$ `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. O( P# J4 d6 k- ?" `$ ~( dleg down over 2009.0 v& Q6 L; R; C
4 u$ ]; O4 z6 t6 k( J E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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