埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2079|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.' R0 A# h% a. D7 }! j! s& j
. H. e% _7 Z  s: [. ^7 l7 i  O
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
; l% N, s8 H+ `7 Q2 u7 U, U" x* m) i9 v* _
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. " S4 C* i3 U1 F% g
3 o+ \7 J( I0 Y, U( h* b9 S
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
$ R1 [6 t* P* P
  x( i6 u, r8 S/ E% f' _* `$ b/ HNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
9 B! \0 P+ E3 X/ d1 P' k& j; M3 v7 t2 V5 S" R& B5 `# V, U
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
, G3 _2 t% C  K, A7 B; _6 Y5 K, L* h. K
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. + p2 ^9 r9 W6 f+ b! _+ d* b: z

; \& O5 G: O% F7 L' y# BTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.3 M  J0 B3 V* D9 t% N+ t

0 ^- O" @* P/ t* d& n3 P/ RMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
/ a1 C* y/ Q4 ~8 D. h; Q* ?
- ~0 ]* `4 P- B2 Z' N( ~3 F  _http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
  F7 s, j5 i: B5 h: }% H! S

+ P7 a8 E$ @: K0 A0 g' cTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
* u2 P( Z9 V6 p, `3 E" c9 r
/ S# b$ |& }# v# N+ g[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。" l$ @1 y% x% n# M$ b8 q$ ^; H
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。& ?; _, m, L- H) |2 v+ y7 Y; d
8 W5 B8 F" o0 E& B, w# w9 E: A
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 ^% t9 K$ {+ q& t9 G
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
# U6 W; |& i) m
很多人都回学校深造去了
* N, @6 `5 A. |' g0 k嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 D- o& C* x( F  e, ]5 I& V' C! m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' x) p2 j% |. `4 o- r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 V1 d9 ?0 i/ {2 f7 E" A3 d* A; F& Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, e( e  O- w* l! y8 Y0 z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 l  B2 e! o2 U! oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; M3 A7 V6 a* C; j  `& Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& y2 w  {" S# I6 q& O. Fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 D" Q8 z5 U2 q$ S7 ]$ z4 n3 Y6 Fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 I9 f. z0 U+ K6 j: x, L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; f6 b3 W8 S) l- G  c1 dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 ~/ L7 }* t  A8 b% U7 s: s; \$ o$ j" P" m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ D8 Z$ @) T. I6 q% N
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 J- ]* V( P; A; S4 ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, H  M- B2 N; q* w  e5 j6 Z+ q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 X/ ^9 u; M0 p/ F0 g30,000 new households will form in the province during
- j- w2 ^8 m5 ~6 y' T2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" t% U: R7 C9 ]8 e+ \# d: C7 rEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ S) x' {5 L, v, B7 d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* N: E" X& `  L0 v4 S  g& _; s  oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta1 V1 k' i' ~* }! z5 Q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- e/ ~( u: I) E1 ?% ]( ^/ p& f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
- e9 l7 G" s- n& y( E6 l" i: g; Y$ aduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, H4 z; g) m, R, C) j. R% u# Z+ s+ V
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 X3 [) V, @5 k* y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 x. ?) k' P: V' U- p& S$ Y% _
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  I& k$ d0 o( a6 O
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 I+ v3 O" [) a  asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- c- }0 G, F/ z& a7 W" q  w* p, A
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 x, t; i1 ~1 \$ X9 v* a
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in/ {, n% o7 l3 ]7 w
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) S# X) J) c  Cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) ?! v2 H$ k& j/ ^. ~) w7 drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ e8 m, F" F  g! K; cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ n/ F8 P* b+ A" X6 @  cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 o7 I1 B+ N  F* D6 l6 Q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- N, e6 l4 J! N2 Z$ D& A4 U6 ^rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) m# y; Y+ i' _, n! x5 o
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 S! w! }2 w! B2 x" l- V. }
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 a) n' A" |( D* X! DAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; w1 d0 L  n$ o- [% V) P6 u
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# Q% |5 p. }4 r4 _& v( m
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) {% ]# y) ^" L* B! A: Wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 \! \; n+ m8 D2 T, \- zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# x- l$ |# G9 q# [. }! {3 son average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 l. }6 \, }; P% i! {8 z. sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( t7 ]# b# h( \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices1 i& t) J9 U8 O+ }
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( O% [0 X6 O. ^0 a0 t4 ~homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: g$ Z) y' h; ?& `7 D7 ~; B" ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 u' F# h4 O+ {" c
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 S. F* q+ y" P
leg down over 2009.
: i7 u2 @6 d  I# H
2 p4 T' N6 L& v- F& a! t$ M" n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 e- ~8 o! U" w3 ]0 [  G7 y2 IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

; n, d$ ]/ R" s% P- B4 h3 e" r
' j$ N% r) {: I9 Z' T" O  w5 C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. # j, R. d/ ]0 K/ T# r& P) a
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
4 m% O1 t2 q, t/ }
" U1 W4 [. c2 Lhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments; p# \$ w) t, H6 G' q  r6 y+ p
0 I6 H- C+ ^7 f. [/ u+ j# Q
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-14 14:46 , Processed in 0.163276 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表