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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 e# ^! P$ {( z: v9 H+ z

- D/ M- s. e" F6 |- dTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 1 A" V) G- ~7 P$ j
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 1 V( u% L5 a: O1 i; _- _. X
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% @. }/ N- g% A5 T4 u

7 E) g5 h$ N; T. cTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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9 N7 i  e5 z' t' I& ^; ?5 hTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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" _+ C# m4 Z' _  I$ L/ NMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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# ~, R1 r! S- t8 u! h, Y: [TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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$ z! {6 O1 Y3 y. j. M% t[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  \; Y& m! W( H 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( i8 o- f) u( p- I" b4 ?  [/ j

  c: B" K) |5 M" a7 q2 U[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
9 `" e  [0 B2 [5 t跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了* j9 V* d$ G6 g# M
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
# Z0 x9 H, H/ g! q" m$ ]  C; YWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* ]3 ^# C& ~) \# }) o/ Y% N
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ J8 I4 o4 p% G$ I" {6 G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 @& j" l4 `! K: v) F6 a' `8 o
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 i; w8 u8 D7 o& |0 ]3 i2 W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& D3 i& u$ V0 y+ D$ h* U
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 T7 K: ?- ~* }the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 V! a! K+ K) ?! t7 s: S
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- O3 F" F% A0 J
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 ~4 d5 h- c# r+ V+ x2 r8 Mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined  d2 Z  w2 ]/ N( k, m& j
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; I! p  ^: Z8 ?2 o) j2 dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( S  o4 e& v$ W! _year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, v1 Y; I: v1 d# mhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 B* P3 A; c! C0 @5 j! {/ v
30,000 new households will form in the province during( H  y) _; B% `! O" L1 F: ^, Q; r
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; c2 ^0 n2 G" A9 w1 u6 o8 YEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 ]8 {# L& W) D, ~
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 W! ^- d' u$ d! L$ c2 {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- \; L! O5 l3 H0 F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* ~) z, J' [3 \/ d, E' m! _
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals  w4 {! l& h" j' x! T
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 C1 x6 P* U# S' M( v4 B+ ]/ l% h1 vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- a2 A  Q1 _; C6 a( y# Q7 `clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: x+ G  @) Q( F2 l: \9 A0 w
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 e9 L$ C7 d8 S& X: {
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( Z$ f! g6 Z% `: f: W0 rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ ^2 y. p0 c1 T6 Y4 ]0 ~buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 i9 Y0 ?3 Y: D) Z- `8 r+ [
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
  S9 t  c6 z7 c& Uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" p$ j; P2 H1 G7 J5 K
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  X$ S8 d0 W* P7 l/ ?recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ Y& o* _2 C6 D) g5 R
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. i& o! Y3 m% ~
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* [6 i( x1 o! k- o* J* d2 @of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# S" l3 f3 p9 R) f8 Q9 m9 Xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) Q" l0 L* [$ B$ v% ?# X
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  _' }: I- W6 b" {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., ]. e% [( x& O  e* m! {& b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan0 r1 G, ?2 m3 n; ?/ ^8 r! I+ ^8 t
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced  `8 V7 \) s# x9 M3 }& ~
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 W6 ~9 ~  I1 M9 L& c: A4 V
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 w5 T9 C! o& W+ r" h: E4 Dthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! n' p- Y% K$ K( k5 @; won average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." l+ k. p6 `$ u$ U$ U
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 \8 W! q$ D: _# j
resale price in February is evidence that past prices3 i3 q0 G* O1 O- O9 O
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 R5 \0 W, D+ k+ v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) d. S; w& Q. A6 G' ~deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 y7 Z' [! Z4 w- DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ r- x9 j# Q, ^3 ^% c# z5 v0 E& B4 Lleg down over 2009.1 [4 u/ K3 x0 p) D; M. c
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ a+ ]7 N2 t& l2 @" s- Q) i6 S
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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5 P* D7 K4 R1 M8 W9 K2 u. Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
6 k$ `, Z% P" w, w# E& a3 r翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
+ S4 h* D0 P7 ?1 ]% L3 [( R, J, Y6 X  x! n, j% ]
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. S% M4 f4 }8 _  u; W& a
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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