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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 5 W; Y( ?& c2 o1 `. a4 D
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 _% e- |- G6 z" q
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 8 B( `3 Z0 p6 S9 \/ [( `$ ^; O
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# Z( y: i7 q% c/ R6 ^$ i

7 b7 ~  U( p% {. ]/ p. g2 F1 x$ oTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.: _' W5 {8 j- c

4 b3 F" k$ {0 w6 |6 K& u* Z; t"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. " R; ~& ?  r- ^7 Y7 a" x

& c1 B. ~8 S0 G/ B/ |  \TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. : n9 D4 ~' X# K# ~! l, d7 k
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。0 J* ?, f8 Y' _: B' O
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, W4 @3 v( ?5 b6 o

2 q& h+ N) H* r[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ p3 ]2 F9 s0 ?6 S+ u跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

" w) t. }" Y4 r* u4 V+ Q很多人都回学校深造去了7 u6 f/ z* j2 ?1 }3 p
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
" u! W# Y. l) Q5 \  p, c! vWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 R* H- \7 ~3 R, Bboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: |/ G& O! x/ o4 \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 [. P" `9 z1 B/ i& Y* V, o2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 `! r" j) \! Z" j. t5 s$ w- e. W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) z0 e- b6 A% M2 \- ]6 h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' x$ z, i4 f. A, I. B3 Z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" k) @& C6 r1 [4 B
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, A" _% q( ^% X, O1 b; ?  upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
- h$ a( E2 ^3 F2 U8 t$ J) S$ Yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* R" Y# m4 C" w
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 @5 i$ v& P" G: @' A2 ?- v4 L3 uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this9 K% {* d9 l% n; B# q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
  ]8 m' C. Z" O2 V# ]; ~( fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 `9 ?5 x2 j' J' o5 G  F+ o. i* I30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 E" ]. R; H/ O* E2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* h8 _; S! {7 G* P! p8 T9 u+ s% IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 q3 [0 k+ K$ j: u/ d4 ^' Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 M9 Q. Z( K2 g( @7 U
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ f) ^" }  B9 W4 D0 f) v. l  Chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- {( e% H& |1 o& \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 \' V2 w  B! D) Sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 z3 B3 ?, W4 a) R3 N
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, U$ Q" J  Z! N" S  K0 ?3 U3 k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, b1 t! F$ x9 l  ]excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& T, h( |' [0 e0 y" K) |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# c; e8 T1 ^5 o' ?, |) e2 B9 Y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! ^# x  c4 w  abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* G/ |( H* E& Z" l- E$ k9 ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ f/ R2 E8 q: P  }" Wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: c5 X. _% o0 Funsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" ^8 Y" b# I/ |- M7 [+ G: V
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
: H. ?1 A- E. ]9 @$ D& q5 C% vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# b% T5 n6 S/ _. l& N4 R  ?) pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
) p) L2 V! g) a0 ^: D9 ]1 Lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' ], R7 d. {0 Q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ e  M) S" e& Z+ hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  U! X& R( t- q/ m* lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: S6 S: a. R7 }9 |  HAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: D# |) {0 l( F) Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
  l( _) f5 P( U, Grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ z9 C+ p' Z& Q# d4 B
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
( K4 _: l% ^( X: q5 D6 k- X  Xthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( ?# l! b8 [* p" I$ x0 qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) e; d+ @, `3 [- E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. c" h" \* t" R) I
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 v8 b+ E$ L- x( Y' t4 hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: x$ Z8 @6 w# t& Z1 p, t' Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, _5 T4 \7 A9 l7 {$ R" k. U5 T/ q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' G9 F' a! M. y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 T" F8 T1 ]1 J. `# H. j
leg down over 2009.) [" J$ ^: a' x' Y, @
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ Y7 F, {& a0 J% H- W7 PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. # j6 x1 K, ]; n# l
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments! y* j  G* @: Q* |' u

! I" K4 o/ @- s5 u4 r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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