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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
- r; E8 ?' `, |, ?6 W" W: r9 QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ x* h' d4 M& q( P; Z9 Y' d+ ~boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
M4 \0 \ A( u! F" ]& N2 C: e ?! |are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 t* O1 o3 b/ O v
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 U( c1 |: E) U$ J
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, _# `* W, P/ E8 ? F+ ?1 U
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,3 D4 d5 H; `* L D, @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 ~# ]6 L- [% v! d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. z* t0 R4 D4 ?" ~8 i3 Gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ k! |6 |0 a2 p9 v4 a9 Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# d7 v9 C/ j; K1 ~6 Y# W0 X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: n7 z) ?2 u# I3 ]- c( ~' B
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) c; a' D8 N! l8 F0 Y4 wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 k( B* ^3 C8 N6 [- F% [% m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
& e3 b) {( e' T) u4 Z1 B30,000 new households will form in the province during7 U% j9 h( A0 D0 i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 _) Y9 Z; O5 K+ U ?2 W U" w1 B" r" IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ v* N! A3 \' F) e' H; k' u l
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 r% M! |( Q' G7 u& n2 j$ Vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 p8 d: m, G( E; H; _. Uhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 O4 k8 _! t5 O5 a- uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 C& ~. T8 ], n+ X" N1 r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 s: N: v8 S- I2 R% l( Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 t* n7 C) u: W5 f8 ?
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
t+ @0 @5 L# G6 E5 D# ^excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 A8 _9 g4 Y0 C8 \" Q# ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. n. x8 z/ G" R- s; `# d$ R" [0 ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 H, B# l3 M3 Q; `5 Z7 ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' g5 m. z) R7 [& W$ R8 Ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 K6 N m) B: N9 _3 S
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 R0 ^& u7 G" d; W5 E% I
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& M# r9 R4 m4 X3 o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. b* @' S' x# j2 w' `$ Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 G( @4 h( e$ Y3 k& X( v& z& ^+ Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories `4 b3 M% a6 M2 W; V! q6 t
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 S7 ^2 b) m! Z9 L1 rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 \ ^/ z# i4 @The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! X& M- ^- f* u3 ` d; p6 R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 c2 |. T6 ^" o/ c" |
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( ~4 q; T6 j( W7 i- \
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% O1 R9 H6 T3 Z l7 r& j+ ?
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! r) K( l6 Y3 S) G$ @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 Y" O0 h& a9 p' R5 I
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
$ Y B+ Q* D9 \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." D+ p0 N9 N. Q) D6 `) H q( q( g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' n3 G, Q& t8 ]% `2 q! p& e
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
. D4 C( T0 h- E- N aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 M0 W% ?1 l0 G# z3 n* g
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 H& Z1 @2 ]' w2 K+ R) |: P
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 r" q" p! h) b; p5 {7 aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: E: x8 N$ ]0 g: Z& X
leg down over 2009.
# R% B7 x$ @' F9 O' E* Q+ c$ ~' o! s2 V! z& j& Y- j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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