ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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! }  \% P, ]0 g0 A' \TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.

& C, h4 z% T' _( E4 Q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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8 H# ]( |$ y' g- aNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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3 L% q& k( e% r; aTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.

5 |0 p& Z. n! hhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

7 h8 x) f( n. P" \. }3 mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
2 {, L! J: M8 A跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
% L/ f, Y5 y3 f* s/ v嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ A/ n* ~% a7 q9 Z8 xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 U; @" z/ N! w6 Hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  w) a. v+ u+ N& xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" ]( X4 c- N2 l, u9 T3 Ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; n' a0 C$ e& H% H. Z. Fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& d% M- o" |+ B9 F1 Y1 B' myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
; X+ z8 k2 _2 f9 h4 G, l9 q7 H+ J- z. l# U2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ r" L! R* Y& R; z/ zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, o! |9 u, Y7 t' Zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- z9 F. A0 b: ^3 }sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ h0 A2 r1 n8 k  S+ O  _clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 c; S: J) d5 C* n4 yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 A9 F; N& a. ?! @$ b1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 l/ u5 h0 N: _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& m4 b2 G9 P/ ?+ l* {3 e  B; Crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# a% T6 A  e, E% hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 g+ a  t/ `& I; e3 E( b6 `rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
  }* X3 y) Q) EThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 G' D6 k+ X5 y7 D+ s. }" jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) [7 i  G1 \$ H0 \Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 M3 @! L; k% a& n. ~, T4 hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 T8 A6 X1 G! s  |* tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* \" h( g! `0 d( Eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) U( I" p) T' p' h, ?' M* P5 h+ _deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 ?4 J( J1 z/ S3 Xleg down over 2009.

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

& s: d6 G/ E- q# ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing