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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 e4 R! j# @7 q5 X' H: D1 p4 QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; g7 j! k2 O( O! v: g* y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 E4 G* S6 K# a' W$ ?. z3 b, eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: N$ q( ?" V& m+ N: A
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: B9 d6 \5 X5 e' z8 J
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) ?/ V4 I- n; {, }4 {, X
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) Y' P/ |2 |( @ ?0 X/ m, U: {the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and i7 E" }$ G$ x* q
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous" ~: D# ^+ N3 \$ F. K; v
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 a4 M, B9 x* g; p7 {3 R: _, p$ hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, O X1 u6 y- p$ C3 u2 k$ `; Ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 k' p, |, H+ Jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; m; g. z' `, R# L% R# X
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 ~2 }9 i3 r4 p3 p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 O5 N+ O. J4 F
30,000 new households will form in the province during2 d& Q' |% f: m9 ]! k
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) q E( n I" EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, p5 x) J0 O% s' C9 c8 D- }# ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 i5 _7 @! Q6 G0 @2 n6 r
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) D3 V: W' e" _) U" Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 o! `/ |$ E' D2 rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
5 p0 q7 l* x4 n( \# tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) M+ o! d# j8 r, f9 usales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! J( \* q6 S- }: y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ @/ y0 m4 u1 c2 y Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- B6 z/ D* |9 g1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a ~3 j, `2 P0 V6 x: a+ }5 M
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 j0 j4 {# D) [ E5 Z: K
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 M% C* T: E! h8 |two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- y% b3 s |% M z: C; J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ {2 \( Q. [* A) uunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( g. m* |# E) \3 y8 f5 F2 ~
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& q) A: y' P1 A" M+ a3 H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& i2 a& l, {) rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories p/ O. n, s2 Q) d) C8 x6 C# I6 r* g
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ B, |" a @! p9 l. A
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ ^+ ~/ ]& X8 T/ @The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ s$ n! D S: ~% d4 jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.+ f6 R3 Z* [: ^0 k) z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan6 n6 B' X. M3 J S6 ~0 o% `5 D2 ?; k* q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 L( `! `' o& v( v3 Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 J0 a" q- I+ _7 P% Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 p. K( I' o9 c5 |2 c$ w9 l. H
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( L6 n6 x5 y5 f5 q! O+ qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* h( E/ ]( T7 p ?3 s, O
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; e7 W; h1 a: F. a- k2 b
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
" h4 R! ?2 ]4 yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, Q! m. r3 `1 u
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 j* T1 F1 m) w( }4 o* ]* v: ~
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ i" h* ^; Z( w" K
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# B9 k# w. T% ?) Q: g, y- bleg down over 2009.9 N; ?% Q/ h6 @3 i
+ y) ~" C; F& Z& T[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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