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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
" B; o) B1 [- R' U4 W
* I- r  e& g, v1 q/ `. c/ aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. " y2 i; l8 y5 \5 y) X
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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0 d2 W% @" Q" G( E# A2 R6 HNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." _) H  M. M! O# a  S0 _1 _3 @# l5 C
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000." F  u) ]" k/ V: `0 l# a

) ]& [: Z6 m) o& P( Y+ a"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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* p; J' j. r4 \* X% }TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.$ W) E, t8 R) S5 I) C  t4 W/ F+ d

0 p9 Z4 ^" m1 q+ a; eMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 6 c0 X! H. L- t* l3 }: C) `# E
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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8 T8 y- i9 G+ V[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
3 u* F% z6 R; h' i3 j( S& \ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ' h& T. u$ J  z- y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
1 M' |9 X: o6 t4 @嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta, k6 f, L  O5 ?" l2 u* N- Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 S2 @5 c& M8 cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# U. y8 S3 {1 F. x9 Z) v
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 h; w: J6 I; E$ ?5 W
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: i9 t! s! g" e* ~
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" a( w% O9 G% @7 f
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! a2 G0 X: h# c7 z6 `. othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ e6 B, J  d4 ?
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 `2 Z' x9 B3 `# P5 _# H+ ?7 A5 Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: F0 o8 n* z$ x9 dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ @, b' E/ ]4 Q" T: W& |1 ]9 Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
+ @* I2 y! z$ t2 S! E4 {3 Jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( Y# Q% }7 ~! ~) p7 d. J4 _# ]7 yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ \7 W9 \/ w) b/ Ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) R9 ~5 q( x% t& R30,000 new households will form in the province during. a! f$ |2 U$ r6 ~! X
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 E% f0 b4 j- d9 j* B
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 S) Y* v9 F( v) s( n( }! i7 O
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# R) j6 l8 n$ ?" W( A/ Wduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 o$ {1 T$ C5 |( b; mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' E5 y- j3 Y% q* _* X) P! G
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 r4 n4 b& e4 B6 p8 u; l  D( r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* b- |8 @" R$ E& ]; Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 Y* S+ a+ }* ^; Y: L: wclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* K! S) f6 L( P* }  Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% X" o# K1 ^1 a3 j7 U1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' z  a/ e0 y% @/ f3 d: M" E
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& P+ `# t0 o! L
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. }3 P) o5 R& n$ j) A0 etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 O8 v% r0 Z$ b: S: Z( @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( b' @) R0 J  }& P3 U5 m0 yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. q" H9 R+ v; D! c4 `* {. rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# P9 A. X; D! s6 \, e( c
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* K5 W* D/ s# Z+ W* x0 N, G3 [7 k, D
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 n$ k  f4 p, d% Q7 \+ Q6 i
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled# p* l8 C5 i9 L7 Q' o
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& D- U; y$ C+ d& `- p: h: L9 FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 }) L' I7 O7 t6 K! Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- ~9 L# J7 R. s' @
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan1 l- q, [: x" S8 q' s  K+ a
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 [6 T0 r* |9 g8 c8 }
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" V7 c6 T: u. q- Jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( K- U3 m! @' P& A
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: N" T' l+ f2 l9 U2 l
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ i- j# u: ]) d/ }
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 f  l+ n6 E/ v3 xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% Y5 Z8 h4 J9 c" s0 F3 D9 eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove! a# }+ s* u  c% r! Q# B
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 C# Y4 f7 a6 ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 N0 }4 H- E8 g, PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ r4 x$ Y/ v! h7 Lleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- W1 C( ~3 ]: O4 @! I- z% {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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$ U$ Q8 V- `' }1 E8 Q5 S8 A/ U, W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
) c9 G! J  i. p. \2 y& K# a3 @+ _9 Y翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子) a2 k( t, @* S

; Z  f6 k' e) ]- l8 nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments1 x( a+ M' N* |) z* \. z

/ C# i7 Z' c2 R  S' j3 x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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