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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
5 b; w6 b; [) b2 B4 bWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" B+ q1 f& `: h. d5 A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 w( F( i' J" s$ Q( gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 r9 @8 b6 q, X2 X+ x N' r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# S6 b; `/ R$ T% k# tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided$ [* n2 d0 ]: H
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% W. O) b: X g/ p8 b; P/ I% T
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" i/ i9 n+ G0 s4 Pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( j" K8 T' x6 P2 x5 c9 Cpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed$ d. Q3 t) F- i; B
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 n. G" i( H2 ]9 xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
Z- Z6 K r2 @9 B% j1 fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 w3 y6 ]; T6 b. L8 _year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# Q8 |' ~: A( B" c) h* ]. @) |
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" o4 J: E: F" O E
30,000 new households will form in the province during6 I9 y$ A% N4 R% |; y# o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& p) M. _8 z2 W+ b9 u! w
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( p& l" t7 J/ Q$ i! a. b7 @& X7 s3 d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% E( ~+ r/ S/ M1 r& d. A
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' C& T: W& z/ `has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
. L9 k- L) ~. ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 b( s. ^$ z o2 V7 ~8 x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" O% u$ h" C9 Y% ~sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 c0 M/ H& x: q; c R
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ O5 Z1 i7 P% l6 J% h! `3 W1 b
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 ^$ y ~% a1 L
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 E X# y s5 I0 x
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 d7 p" \. y# {/ R( V6 Ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in" t$ ?5 M1 N( n: c3 j
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 q$ i Y# C$ x: U5 X- }' k ^
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
c9 }5 R6 S" \5 H+ n$ kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
d' }+ n6 s% h8 A( _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 {* n6 E# V1 B. Q& q4 {6 m
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& f1 ~* v* a( M: ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
& O$ _9 n5 Q" o8 B, u+ f, s) _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 Z$ _' R6 \0 N }4 a- v/ o9 q6 brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, R1 A+ C$ z6 u" `% r) o6 GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 i! Y$ l% y1 e/ H4 A: O) kboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. K6 V% M% p5 N7 | @) N3 K6 l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
, x9 A; G0 t1 ehousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( `2 ? m5 [+ F
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ _/ e! ]& P, C+ a- `8 a
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even8 b' q. G, R8 C6 v+ o6 {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" ~' }0 q% X6 z. H1 F
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% c0 ]" C1 x* O0 {# zThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ o* f$ C1 X8 B
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# D8 s: L5 E# n: C: L3 M! `# j
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
4 B# f; r( [9 |) T4 hhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; w3 g; D2 B2 I! o# B" b+ Q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# G! K/ C2 _" X5 a8 o6 N% H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& \. p2 O2 h' v cleg down over 2009.
* w, Q6 T0 Q7 e* t, C) y
4 g: J5 p, I6 D& P6 J0 F" z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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