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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta6 _, s; |- |7 `! Q' C1 i
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: F, _4 M4 r4 x3 z" _9 G) w U
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, m3 _/ |1 T. l( Iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ Q& S) h8 q4 i+ |2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- m% @! l$ u/ m+ Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* Z# `4 o' D$ W" x% e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: u; }+ Y) E. m! r& w$ Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, T9 Z" D. z! f8 c$ z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 ^. G/ z7 _7 C* e$ p/ tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 i) c" E9 Q' pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined t& ]/ b& i U; U" l, E Q/ O- |0 Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 o; ]6 O6 _; I2 b$ O( ^5 k% ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ @) b. I" Y+ n: w& Z+ wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ l* E/ g* p; T& h9 Nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) E9 P" [6 z) Z1 J4 p
30,000 new households will form in the province during! |& O! E6 D& r U5 n, Q$ i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 _2 t2 [8 X0 V; R! Q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# V4 b/ p$ m2 H" @, k( d3 i0 \% s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 y, b0 G" z% ^3 q+ a S/ Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 Z( g! ~; Y3 U/ e1 Y3 l, [; b+ n; p2 b3 Fhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new6 u' j8 s- m* K0 @0 H+ D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 e# x# Z/ D$ o& a+ I! m: nduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# S2 K2 H; F- m# E E
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 `* O; \$ l. X' \' f/ eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# ?% d k2 j8 Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; Q7 Y) i8 O5 Z7 v/ l; g, _# G
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* c7 X1 V, v2 p; k5 r
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ X6 J. N) p+ [9 K0 O( [5 ^6 {9 H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- s* M/ K) y1 xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( ~2 q/ Q& W- [* Q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! r6 w1 e& |5 |+ v9 F6 V
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# r, J8 i) W0 b" i \
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; H8 R/ [6 N# O# R
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, x8 C7 Y) N2 @% Z) f7 L+ W: s Pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 i+ `+ o" Y% N' I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& X, N6 j9 U& s- }! s" Erapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 N, b: t" G) X% f% TThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 J" ?$ e4 h" @2 Dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# M" J* b* Q4 A' K
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) F( Q' m$ X, |& rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 u& `3 y U- @8 {" D9 {7 x6 X
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# N6 d: J$ b. a" sprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 L/ X- z, g+ t2 R* @; m1 |3 s& Ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 U6 l" W2 g7 A2 n/ I8 [ A. ~
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 A$ J( b; T8 T2 K. xThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& s8 }6 [7 e8 f
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
$ c: l" j/ n5 g! @/ |8 _exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 u1 ]# W! @8 l7 \% z# z* w: Bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 [/ T0 I( L0 G* ^deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& |9 L- G7 Z, V; Q! r7 kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- S9 h9 J9 C2 Z; t/ A, v, { Z9 dleg down over 2009.% l+ e; D* u' d+ A; o
M' ~3 g1 I$ F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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