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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta& c2 C m! b* A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 j: Z5 ]- r' ], e9 ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 g& W) W1 N# u& H( X
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) i& J% j1 y! g) X2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ B# c3 A5 l# t5 A8 `$ J$ ^! e' q: R/ Q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 H! B4 h( A4 |$ D/ E4 Ifrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
5 J+ A( h, S+ v: x2 W& }4 j0 m% c+ Tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ \% I& e. A1 `% g
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! \) v( v8 r: v- k& mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 H# s* e# H# Y! z2 Eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) n J/ j" n; M3 ]6 ?( }2 V- ?to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 j' V1 ^# S+ T) T3 E
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 E; ^% N) F* x/ ~7 \7 j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( [# I) T0 y* j% M' Xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" L: v9 U0 f! K# r
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& A0 S2 j, ?, o4 M0 N" w2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 T T9 Q" d1 L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* N* e# h1 S6 J: Yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
Y8 ^5 x) B9 Q- j& ^5 uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; H6 D" H8 g2 s" q+ phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" k3 {% W9 q; j; P% Q. N6 Rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 r; y% C7 v" }) i; Q9 C3 z3 pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 l# [- G* B5 m0 _" W- {* O" ~; j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories* A: @5 E! Q# b4 |5 t2 l
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 ]% q% p- ^/ b+ M& |3 G6 U: Xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of0 j$ Q/ ^' t: J1 R0 a6 O; e8 {
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- M# u) d9 F8 j. G3 j) ?
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ ~# l3 p b) `7 n' H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 g2 C( M* [9 v1 Dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" H6 I) [! n( @: U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- O9 E) _9 C g2 {) l
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
: C% \5 R" V; N2 ^recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' Z g& C/ E! R9 |+ b. m3 b1 P/ U
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 O* U1 u$ _; P" V3 T, o# pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ {. U* x) U5 u2 z& k- w5 h9 u1 Pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled& _6 {. _8 Z+ }, }2 k$ @! X0 f. G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ a* V+ S* c, h" G4 Q2 GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: s+ U/ L: a9 |8 h- D7 k! tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." N# u* n2 O C- K! l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! O/ _, K5 Y _$ Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ a* z1 o; U6 `1 q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ M/ }; M0 n4 L# `
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ n& k; O4 O+ w, l0 Rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, Q* e, i$ V7 @7 g, U* w. kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# |! E& V$ M* b1 w |/ H0 ]( x, E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' b; }* F0 X; a& w' ~- {# q0 R
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 e$ a. v8 K5 f7 u+ ]7 D) ]* l) kexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 P8 l7 l: G" H) B
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! p2 G A% }7 B1 m5 Z# A
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) q# p/ s3 J/ A, q3 O0 p
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( T/ u3 ~9 a G) X! g( R% Rleg down over 2009.# i- X* X2 F+ ~% ~0 a8 B+ b) O0 F8 \
/ u) m( h9 e! ^, k0 Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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