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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 Z2 q6 K/ }( Z& d
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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; v- J0 i$ S& N0 T; T% }7 N/ ]9 F! qThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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' W" H1 R8 I: r$ U5 hNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ O7 ~5 ]* T* `. \) D5 `$ L- m

! J# f- x  S# i& b2 K"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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( ^( q# C; P! j( Z# J$ P) ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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) f4 G! \7 i3 X! d[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。5 B8 K- C( [& |! N8 |
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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4 F2 B- P' N- X[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . Z4 H" x; b' G$ V
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了( y6 y# Z! |4 \2 C8 S
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
5 }: i9 Q7 {$ y0 u% m, Q+ NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its% d3 L: p" D& v6 U' m9 A# C3 T
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 j% O% q/ z1 {% h+ B/ E
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. s% z) D% H6 a( ?) K( F# E2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. C0 q: S  E0 A4 h; b% u
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 Q4 q7 D! k" Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# I7 V# z! |* v
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and1 J$ k8 Z' ?; X
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 w' ^3 z" N8 k& `. k  D
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 I& A& H2 Q! y+ K/ Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' z* b- j; b8 [to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 b8 }: {; s1 p, X  K$ V3 A
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 U" a+ F7 b3 r) f/ z1 h' |( ^! O) {
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ b9 N0 v& c5 E; z; H9 q3 R. c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; [+ Z$ a. j: E, Y  m  h/ N
30,000 new households will form in the province during. r/ H) `- g3 [8 p
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( B# X6 m/ ]$ ^) \" `4 q7 Y/ IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
& w; \3 p7 |5 w% Ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 R& n1 X% V2 Q: ~* R# s
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 f/ }- f8 s1 E' z2 @( [0 Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, |5 J( X/ n. Fhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* k( X& u! @# o. F% r! f$ g
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. m5 J0 @3 K* Z7 k  k
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  f* F" \' X, W4 m! {& y$ h
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- ~  x$ ^5 d/ s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! A9 f( {3 s/ ^' r) ?8 |6 Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
) g' X5 x7 u9 U: N! |0 a, tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
  E, |: S$ R% W/ J* A5 v& ]buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. k) m4 g) ?, [# y- Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 p( h( Y3 k$ h8 K9 }unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 s4 [# E; F5 ?, [) Iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 ]1 K0 [# K5 g, m+ {4 grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 [- c$ R0 E: K( c- x2 n7 Eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ P( b' U' o* C0 v& Amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 n1 r( n3 [2 O, d5 H
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: E( V6 f7 g) f% F$ v
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) b& ~2 v9 e0 I1 d, P* v7 d
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. t  Q  {  @* V; J0 C+ `* e" mboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ _& n+ |7 {, v: u% k1 n. P7 NAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan8 o3 W; P' c" v- Z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ H% A0 [2 R4 D) _2 D8 L6 q' Prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 M, ^! l# b" N2 A: A: tprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 F7 [4 n) `/ }5 W# k, wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' i2 c8 X' F. H1 Kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, }' A5 j1 F+ z2 \; _The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& I$ A3 E1 g, D- V6 T$ Y
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! p3 l. ^/ b1 O# q4 ^6 n3 v1 V, p
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ |" Y; w$ X- N; m& B( Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% L( v7 M6 }0 z4 Q  _2 M
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 \* k1 l0 f" t) O( e5 i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 h  d. ~$ V6 mleg down over 2009., _* v2 s" w4 o( X! k

0 E& E' w: O1 ]6 ]# w) S- U+ w[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 x. ^  }' G6 R' P5 L  C* R& u$ y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
0 U7 o2 ^2 \5 \  ]  s翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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% I$ J3 s7 C- nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments; ]* D9 V( J8 s; G' _( H5 ?9 O2 t
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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