 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 v# O! t, N( @1 z2 ]+ i' ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" x7 C. e, k+ wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ g( H) ]& J0 H! x% B# c2 Jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 f& [: Q* C! ^
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ S, W: K9 ?4 K9 ]- E! dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* u* O& b1 X3 \1 z0 ]7 u5 ~7 D
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( L. F& {1 t: H e) kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 X- n) D" _) y$ Z1 `7 c
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ }# v! {& G( Y9 F; p9 d
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
\5 F" [3 z q" R& |/ k3 b7 Fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( j% y+ W% A3 p4 P4 q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
i! m2 J/ n: w2 rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 j* C. A* b) |year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 X/ N. N, Q5 m6 [' X! k
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; \2 G* u2 f& u- r3 O) L1 K* j
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ e4 ] f* h/ d* |& Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ m! U, Y. U" D' y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ ]: [, f. o' X
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 G! D! d" l7 q6 ^0 \
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
5 d) L' K0 a, S. n2 T& A& X3 x1 v2 ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- B+ \9 l8 e- R1 c) l0 [9 o* U7 C
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 d6 z5 G Z% P
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 U3 p+ ]5 T+ {' \& S. e) c! {+ a
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' ^8 C6 o5 s1 g' a9 a i1 O5 }* c0 u8 A
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. |% U" d# m3 B& _/ Qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. s. Y/ m3 R4 J2 C) t( X a9 y" Y; K
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! V4 U$ L; C) n; r& \sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 _( R7 J$ f$ G2 R A. C+ j' w
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ `. [( @% ?3 l: W! @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% ^7 W- Z! ] R! d4 ^& w
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, Y6 c- l9 p1 s. t2 w$ N4 H
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: e# V& F* ]0 x1 @# U1 g
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 S0 N8 R$ d& S1 K. dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ D+ e' F( y1 C
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% @6 z% f1 X4 eof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, j H. @! [# t# d% S* O) rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; b" Q* o- C0 q/ tThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* C4 s" O ~" b2 rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: }5 a6 j7 C, v- W6 ^+ }, d0 KAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ S' J) \; M* `8 s" e- R! Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, s/ a& E% T/ z2 D
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 |/ \& H; w5 Y6 X6 J% M1 ]8 K% i
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 V; P# W. Y: J9 G( u# R1 {3 O' K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* R7 u) S0 D5 N% E2 V2 k, \
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 l& K: B% O+ y; R8 b ~The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! M4 Y( A i+ j- i0 f# |resale price in February is evidence that past prices3 P; h+ p- K* s
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 y) N X- `7 y7 vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! I7 K F4 e) T: `deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 X) f5 u1 r4 d. {- Q4 j
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! A7 M7 X& `& o- x0 W; ]# Qleg down over 2009.
. l; u1 M$ \- Y# p5 P1 s3 W; J$ _% |/ R( B! D. A$ Y! @4 M
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|