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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
4 j# w; I: B' b+ A* sWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 F5 X$ S( F3 T/ Q3 {
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# s1 Q; W2 F0 V# i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 S" u! T. i8 v2 W; ^) i7 Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 O2 R( y F0 a4 w, @' L. S" ~* Cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. k1 q/ ]* N: R; J- ^from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ S0 T$ H. E: L2 {the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) P# N3 I4 G+ x* i7 F& fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous% T4 ~ Y. j. y
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ H1 I- ~ D0 G/ U8 X) gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: b4 H% g6 |7 q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 d/ G5 G6 {: v$ ?6 f! L8 c+ qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# X) g& n; J$ H! t, ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& w7 H' h' I5 n5 [! Q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! Z: {& e' N9 t9 a/ M
30,000 new households will form in the province during
( i7 }( ?, a( E, r) f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& \0 D; X n2 x3 g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% g- s5 P4 A+ c$ J7 k" w% m
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, y! w* e" C; ^, O
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% J+ z9 [- {2 V/ [% ?has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 t! D3 f" `: x* F& Khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' {. w' a/ |# ~; `( e cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. `) ^! e; @9 k9 @! X3 N- i- l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories L1 Z# S: ]4 l" X9 f# x5 f9 U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# L. ~* h, M, Y5 |+ Q& ~
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 i. @4 w: l' l. t/ F/ `
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 }% f, p0 z6 |. w$ a+ {sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 \- ^4 N$ U6 ? H4 c3 qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 N5 d) m6 c3 B" h; Ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 u# @6 u6 \) c) X A' Q x" Xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; D2 E3 a# A8 c, kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( W% g" a: J( ^+ C* w6 w
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 w" y0 }. Z. V+ T3 Z$ k4 F% _resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
N2 y4 T1 N) a. N' T4 w4 Q* F5 Tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" u6 t# s W, K7 a& r2 w3 P% ^; S8 d m
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 v' b) H: v# g* E/ Z$ i! J
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) g2 e( P8 H5 R
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' w; o3 Q- U4 U- r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& ^6 t6 @5 f$ W7 G+ ]Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 g; u \0 h4 M; l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 A T7 [+ T4 x; irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 `* D! k5 k+ \- `
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' [! h/ M- N; _' _$ ]& Pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners O5 b! X: j$ F
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 O4 M% W7 _- @' s6 V9 o5 ^The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
T% Q3 |5 `+ u3 {$ E+ @1 |6 W3 Rresale price in February is evidence that past prices
; f8 F, ?0 o/ M+ _exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 ^$ |; Z6 C+ ^3 h8 ?homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. X0 V- O0 d3 a% _# j$ adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 X) n2 M# S4 E+ N( oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( t) ^3 @4 x2 t3 |* hleg down over 2009.
7 x' d0 D+ g) Z1 R4 ]$ u: [* E' A( G3 ~1 r$ E% N- i
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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