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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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2 g7 d. A% y$ ^# HTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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8 P& n* {  [5 x. U7 |: c7 VThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ' }. r& f7 Q( c+ S$ g* |+ P% A
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 7 Q' c0 ]- h% N' e3 N; j5 t

0 ~6 n! a$ ^# Y; w) ^% nNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) v) j8 m% z8 O- s( Q3 T* a$ Y6 X

1 \8 U8 j1 }7 a( d# e9 OTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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# b4 h) `* G5 o, I+ e3 ?( u; t"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ( y* i( `! Y* C& {: |  N6 U

, g8 M( k: u, z  OTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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# ^& \! L- w( o: z- S7 IMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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' B, e7 _1 w0 Y, fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,4 M4 e: I8 w- G) V4 M

# U# ?1 r' J+ x* q5 |) }[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。3 X2 {  Z% ]) U: c
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, H' w0 A6 K8 k

* Y2 X" }  m  h[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ' ^  ^1 t  Z; F* N2 j* X3 S" m
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
3 U. T7 F6 m; X4 L9 V. Y嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta5 x9 X3 B1 U8 f5 s9 v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 z$ y9 S& B0 V7 a0 Z" z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 {, N  k& k" [' p5 `2 Oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ u/ [# `! p: a# |/ s
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 _. J3 |0 W( |1 d6 oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! X/ }( p7 c0 Z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, J8 Q9 P& y% d7 B4 w+ p; S
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& {, ]2 \4 H5 d% umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous" p" t4 Z+ K3 L0 {' O
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" N% X/ ]$ ?- n: Q" s
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 Y; ^+ x8 \% u' @to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 w* l/ x6 A8 [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 F4 s1 L. Q) X' d& b; ^# f9 eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; P; H9 C' W1 `: k6 c" j% t: lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 t3 t( X2 J- F1 p" W30,000 new households will form in the province during+ ^3 b4 d# M6 u3 l) t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 _* {* G7 `; @4 K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( \# s5 Q- E' D( a+ shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 x9 P) I& q0 z1 K3 L+ P
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' A8 }5 P: F6 D* X% C. Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* W1 B4 E+ ~/ w% O4 ~6 c
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) y/ h) a) v( {8 b+ G1 P
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( I3 a2 j0 A8 @1 e
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, _9 o% y) [: w: Dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- W1 j# E/ L: ?) I5 c& ]& nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 g& |3 A' o! g5 B1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- z4 K+ Z7 \& y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive. K% W" R- K) V1 ?+ T
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: G3 e& V  _3 b- |3 |5 M' [- z' k
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& z' ]2 w+ ?! {4 y  u% O& _. n5 `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 t7 i' Z4 h, E
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% V  `* E8 ~3 [. x3 M
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ J5 c+ q- E/ @- J' L
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ i/ h, D; D( G. w7 ?2 Q) G0 Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 E0 i/ b! ^5 pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: I5 b9 N0 T/ Q, g, |; B( Hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ D% R* Q4 X7 Q  @& Y) o' Z: h7 g
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& k* w4 a1 b6 J
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. j) P3 J& i" H1 s, D% CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 K% q0 E0 b" t" Yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" N1 S& B' {- B+ K/ xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; U, S2 q. ]8 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' X! _2 x; y$ L) ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 X4 F8 \6 _$ V$ V% uon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; z- Y& D5 I' G0 n! aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; P( H/ \: i4 N, @2 K
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  z% Y9 U5 R3 _, y; b  ?6 [1 ~: Y$ `6 texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ D" {* Q" q) f1 _! N
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- E' C7 q- S8 E; u9 l( V
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 ?; `2 A  Q( v2 q; N5 Z4 _) \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, O: g# c% f. s( E( s
leg down over 2009.
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$ s: z/ ]: {4 \4 q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% ~( Y/ T- S2 S5 Z8 b' \; @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. - l% V' @+ x4 i: d3 L7 ~7 s
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子  o5 F! H- q' Q9 N9 Q! G6 y
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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4 \( ]) _  b: I4 A' h, x6 N[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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