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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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" r% {: S, E- D* @The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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8 s" s: P/ ^6 w1 [1 w3 q- I& y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 U1 d+ O7 ^! k0 @

0 }, y3 L0 U5 T1 S# A8 y+ X2 vTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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; [1 s2 H7 {1 L2 P2 E- _8 A$ o"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ' f4 _, C) Y+ m8 z$ v- g! Q0 b
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.. ~6 p# [  c% B( |
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. : K6 X& e( P" O6 ~5 C8 H, p

: m, D! K# r5 Y5 |+ c5 t- ]http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% }2 P0 l& S: l* N
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
8 ^, I$ E4 n( {; {& |1 ` 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。' J* p9 y. s! |/ l
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 4 c5 S8 v$ r+ ^( X
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ N/ d1 f; R* `2 M9 s6 x1 v很多人都回学校深造去了
* s. @& C' N4 B6 O$ Z& Q, n嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& i9 _: h/ p' `8 v; h
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 P8 J2 p7 f) p% ?* _2 d
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( T$ v9 ?; O7 C- r1 e3 Z7 ]
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, O3 B6 U! N7 U* w. w
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 J7 j& D5 r' ?( M
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 {! D; ~& W) ]0 ?7 K
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" p$ C( E9 N' Y; Q2 B. I/ ^6 Mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
' q5 a$ s) @5 y6 ^0 k" F0 _. n8 _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous5 ~' U! w$ V9 Q( w) I) @+ [
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 M9 r4 x& Z( _' {7 S0 n
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 K3 X; b7 p/ K: H
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& V% [6 P' ?. H2 z8 }: ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* n& h1 i6 C' D$ o$ oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( K: V' {1 J  @
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( `2 g8 v1 S8 {) I: z- P30,000 new households will form in the province during
; x4 K8 V4 j) ^$ v" Y( `- f  `4 g7 M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- Q+ z2 x) S9 t6 {. {Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( u5 F( a7 c; ]$ P& Z& o
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ o; ?: E8 N1 K0 w4 i5 C; O8 Gduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- ]  v3 m3 m# ?6 D5 x: X/ z8 i
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# L/ L& H# v. F6 L2 O  I9 R4 V6 c
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) O2 w+ S  p5 U6 U
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 r! p4 |* s; _' s0 c" m1 b# S) Xsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories6 s9 Q. L/ t+ U% b5 B% Y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ y, q; {! z$ a: p& ^" X6 F+ p, j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, o! `& l' S1 b1 z8 G5 M! e7 F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 U/ ]& A, C. U' Q7 J' z4 {% g  B$ vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
& s% v; x' {0 q+ j6 [buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  k0 j* E" C4 M  g. D
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 r* Y; l7 q0 y" G0 J6 xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 H- u6 r7 D. e6 D8 Q# Cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' i! p- [0 V( w) J0 L' urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: F% n. Z. |0 }+ h- C
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; A0 f# L- r) K8 Amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 r. U% N" N) x/ c) {- k1 pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! o" S- _1 Q3 D$ u+ srapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 Y; e$ D+ Y" iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; A& J1 C$ e- D+ @* l/ S7 s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 O5 I; m* R, B5 I2 E. c; J
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan3 I/ A' ~+ F  ]9 n
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ ~* S. `7 H5 I) Y) H) u
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. F7 \  n! @) U  p
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* S  ^' h. K! B; t. W) pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 l+ r( s6 d( Z" G3 h# A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 i; L0 g* J" ^4 a2 S+ a& s; aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' n( i1 j) k& Q+ nresale price in February is evidence that past prices# b3 y, E/ K7 I5 q6 O# N
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& y' _- o9 f( r* C: x
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: e, U9 z+ `8 R, j
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 J: K3 J: m7 y' H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! {9 M/ J8 g) T+ I
leg down over 2009.
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' g5 q3 S2 K, r9 O6 |, ~, g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. ?( E: p6 R- x1 G- oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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: a" T- f. T1 t0 G% H1 H* j  [  e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 u3 X/ Y' L+ @: p4 Z1 w, Z2 @翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 t. H  V+ k4 H! X0 n7 X

) k  s' I) U  {http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments5 y6 V; h0 x5 b6 S8 {0 W1 Z

! y. H. l. n3 ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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