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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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, m$ q0 q3 t/ x; LTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. & x' T0 e( I7 Z: G6 t8 r5 H- `
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. " l7 T! y" a" \) t% H) ~

  h5 a  R, n, C3 V/ X$ ^"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. # j$ n) z/ C9 x7 B9 V% J( v

- f! F/ |; h5 }% K; Z% VNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  M, o1 ?# i9 v; X7 h# i, u8 o
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* |  X" T/ S5 v; J# w

& g) e1 G( d8 d* H"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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6 V" z5 R) G: h" g& v! ~# {, ], A: p& ]9 BMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % |% Y& ]8 Y. u+ _
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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$ r4 S  q0 r- ]1 c+ b8 h  K6 qTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。) f: V' b, v" C( h+ Q
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( M9 Z/ A! i# \. S" _% _7 \& ?6 z& l

, g% t4 U, r+ t6 _5 w) F[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  w: C% k3 a  x, [5 [# p跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
6 x3 a3 F1 E" j
很多人都回学校深造去了
! y* O, a* d# g. w  u嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta9 g; X9 a9 k6 q* p
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 c+ U- ]* X2 _boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! [3 o& m6 @- R7 T9 @: ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. G6 O0 A- [0 T$ t0 l( H
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, t6 p+ v6 G8 p0 Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
; _3 J( Z# ~" g* A0 O8 a8 Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 o. `9 y+ Z; c/ [, Z" w: C% b8 E- pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 H0 p( G9 X/ J, H9 _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. t. E* n+ \2 Q$ Z7 [6 w7 |! e5 z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( W2 x. j) R8 dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* ~; x: ~3 {  k- r9 ^& g. O% Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) t' E# z% ?9 o" [  M0 Kprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 h1 m& h0 {* A( x9 n! ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( t- a: h7 n" h; I5 _homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 M1 I$ b* U$ D6 R30,000 new households will form in the province during
8 U" a2 s: {/ M+ _2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# T8 ?7 E" i# L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
  ]9 F( Q, A/ H1 G' hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* A- Q6 P7 {5 Q$ B% {2 j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 J  m; K! v+ L: O: ]7 nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) I, Q5 O, y- D) X' X3 P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 b% D& D. d. dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 q+ `8 l! K% t" u: _& u" L: jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' E; E; b+ G2 lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ Y6 h  I$ H4 Z- _! [( Jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 f6 \6 R: Y9 i7 r1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& x- O6 h6 Q% [' {# I
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 W' {( U7 j- z" gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ H# x8 y' y1 v; q, e/ {
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- Y4 {% ]# w6 |8 yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747  m  O9 B* T: L# A# ]# q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: }7 _4 Y- |& T
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 l/ `1 r+ z/ I  L7 p* j/ Uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 `0 u0 w9 u; g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- x9 C+ L8 \' Y5 t% I: G  m
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
" E- s; l7 H- B9 n5 Q5 Y6 |' a( Crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 ?  M% ^0 E1 F, x# iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ V5 R3 Y$ E/ e4 ]boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ Q) V; W" C+ {  H* `
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ X* x: W9 f% f7 Z  y3 M3 Qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 V) |# Y+ u1 @, D
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- F; I, @- k0 r. }  |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even7 @4 `6 ^) ~! i' z3 T# C
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& K$ d! @& h# f& \& ^$ s& K3 [on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 a, `9 o: Q! s0 P! Y" PThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ R# t7 A9 T6 R/ i- G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
) |/ N9 i! Z4 D# v3 d# C  G/ uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: c+ n8 P+ y! Hhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 j' D* i3 M! H
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 _% @9 L" [7 V) a4 W# E9 u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! S5 e/ [2 ^( t4 j1 u" \leg down over 2009./ u  Z' t+ N# i. a

* k# O; y$ t" P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 U, i2 J& Z, d/ u6 N9 o7 P# Y& PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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1 [4 t* j  Q; J, X+ {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. & L9 Z! {9 Y& u+ c7 i6 t: B
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ C9 n, T- v. i8 `
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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1 h, Y5 A- Z8 n8 W* u  r+ z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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