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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . ]: _0 \; E1 V/ V

: D  k& H( G$ Q3 l# O- uThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) K3 X' q% L9 n" U, j' o! F! ~  `
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. * h4 B1 P! X! h. w
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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# a8 V; l* W: z+ R( Y5 vMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。2 R8 f8 v: d1 I- i5 _, R, k0 X
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
8 Q; u6 d7 \9 X) ~! P) A跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

$ J/ T$ Q0 ~& P1 o很多人都回学校深造去了
0 q' g" n$ f$ @2 R/ _) p2 t: m0 o嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
% W( A) C( y1 }" m6 k+ G$ AWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& U9 L0 |: r) L) x+ l+ m) R
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 L3 p1 A. Q1 I6 ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 D) ^, |9 h3 |, H5 G9 T' L1 \! X& `: M2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 L* b$ _$ q; `0 Q2 Y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! f2 V3 K9 g* w7 i5 S
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. B- w0 {6 k7 b' A6 athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( F! k, n% j1 y" s2 y( smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous) ]# o3 t# q4 a: O; i  L/ v
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 F9 j( L# e: m) y  w3 s4 |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: S1 N1 ^) J- S# ?# r8 _6 E' F
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
  ]. r( K+ b) C4 i5 a. Nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, g) E  I& a# N3 g5 i. Ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& z. N; c2 C1 l$ t8 X6 X) `4 [- N
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ d- x3 {' {# v' Q4 ^- F
30,000 new households will form in the province during
$ S- h' T2 Q* s- _4 C5 i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 w# Y6 y. c+ n1 z. eEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 x8 W7 U: r  O  I
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 t. a. y0 J% G  [: i2 A# ]3 \2 `during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 T* S. x& W7 z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 ~- t7 }2 x# T' s! |
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
& c7 i% X; j: V4 M, g& E8 {0 Y2 lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging" _0 S% N$ @# D3 |
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 B  b: w8 w7 h3 z6 a  `& J5 gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is- H7 D4 _- l6 ?4 g- D7 p; A4 D
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 ?7 A5 L, z6 Y' g' ^7 O$ s! Y$ L/ m
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ t# F& u5 E: ~3 J8 vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) p# a! _% D6 x/ ?% v2 R2 j7 Pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! D7 R0 B$ L8 U( o' U3 k
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 B+ C. Y- A; m0 P) |- [3 U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# H: r2 h8 C* I/ {# b. S0 n8 Y9 r7 hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& i; ?* f5 k3 U3 A( h5 g9 Lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 t  W  D, u, ]4 V5 E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ s1 O/ T: D" L$ D2 j& p6 L$ pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ ^4 R+ k1 J3 R# m; _( R: F& c( Sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled# e3 ?  `* p" ?4 R4 y6 x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" s8 @5 N" k9 k, ~1 ZThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- N4 B; t) f  F9 [boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# a6 q5 {% p; v* w9 V" L! O( dAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan; V" B! `4 c4 u" D
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced+ e, I1 h3 @/ r- |1 x5 [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 u) |) j. u; ~! x  Z3 J
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 ^0 B4 I  G' s- |# v& `though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- I9 n8 ?$ B3 {. W/ @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* h/ c8 ^9 J/ L6 p7 W' j" }( }0 X5 [The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
& @$ f4 K2 N2 Xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
" {! Y) P6 d$ m( K$ b8 p7 C5 w/ qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 U2 l. v& `$ {" y: [# X9 _% d& v" l$ e3 `
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 d3 n9 q7 U" f5 q- J5 sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: _3 V7 N, j. eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 s+ o2 S. Z- p# g
leg down over 2009./ ~% G0 K  M3 W# |

8 X6 v- O/ D% n* q' y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 M5 |$ d+ x5 V; BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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9 j4 q! k# X+ i, K+ \+ _4 b6 m' Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ! }0 S- a+ K! t6 O8 t% r/ X
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* f. e; m# t2 G

4 H2 z2 _! c4 R7 T2 O4 Thttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments0 \) X5 P3 w$ y$ M: u" m

' S4 S6 D, w: h8 E, W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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