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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta; I7 M5 I/ T, X% M, t& y7 {. X; G
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 z6 L, N, o6 A& ]! L
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" t# }+ W; T z: H4 _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 W. ~& s' R! s7 g. k3 A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 a% w$ N! l- _formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* \% x) x; I, w, R$ m1 @- o8 T8 h, Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ I& i9 v* L( |5 ~+ E9 j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 f1 K4 w$ x7 e+ b% Y! Cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ {5 j) T. a2 e1 M! i
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed$ U8 o* M" S* F- r$ |8 v/ H' d. C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ y/ K; h; t# V, x8 J+ Q, \% E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: j g% t" U# c9 i9 m
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, h! H M5 r5 m; ]; R4 u2 @. syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) ]2 o/ \- A k% L6 @9 P0 ?) K5 Q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; Z. t7 A( \8 P: V6 E2 n @30,000 new households will form in the province during* q3 `- n8 O' W7 M
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 F$ r1 R5 z- |" e: O0 y1 K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 j" n3 [5 S; U
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
% J2 c, S0 X% M- a# `$ \) eduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta k2 U8 W, H; U) `4 c$ X3 f: ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! }7 l+ q. M# m5 C# Y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 I, Y- b* C/ o5 {- _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! Q+ a5 A( u! J0 A, b" Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories% G! q+ {5 A) s4 p% }9 Z$ ~
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* R5 ^( ^" J! \1 Q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% b* R. P% ?0 B* m1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 z% \; R! q, p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ r3 y8 F$ E/ H3 X8 ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- A% `* p* [/ q8 f4 Z6 h* ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 P t) o$ K. H$ q; n: Y# v0 [unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" b+ Y( v# D2 g( p# r U
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
; d& F3 N- W3 [. \6 P- h# X* t$ Jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& C" n1 J9 Q; B# M1 A( V
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 g% |8 {, p$ z ?6 N9 p$ @( Wmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" z9 y4 ]/ i# y. u6 [# W9 E' s& Z
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 W. }& X; b# I6 t. ^' K# P; drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ v; r; {; |+ }! gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 k. R0 K# L3 x* Y4 O- ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 {3 k5 d& a2 W& }" JAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan9 A( K0 Q- Z' T% Y9 ]/ p3 X9 G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 X2 g$ q4 M& w6 |' E; N1 H; zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ w/ l# o! \7 }" V$ Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! [6 d: G5 |% T; d# Wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 `' e- B7 u: y1 \% B; G6 t0 v4 ~on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., k: d5 [1 i* [) M& U& N
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 D1 Y, K0 }* O2 e( G/ I
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
( g6 ^* t. ^& i' D, f% Q' H" |4 Uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 ~" J( O/ u( h- x; z6 D
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 h- o& o) [9 p' R: `: _deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ i* D9 @+ n0 w# I$ c8 N' w2 l5 \
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* [! N+ L$ S5 o/ o$ O9 R+ Zleg down over 2009.8 _+ e. f0 l c7 F5 M
$ u* M$ }& y, r' @( P
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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