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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" M4 A4 d+ A, [- I
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. Q% M X. b1 `8 t+ S1 d! E2 Kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' L6 ~, C6 r! S' h) b& O% g
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 n( r( ^* O7 D2 g: z& c0 l
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& H! C& r6 W' |( D1 X3 e
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ d+ }# A9 E, V9 I
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, g8 D0 H) y7 y6 V) z$ J" @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, H8 [& q% [( W' C/ @/ \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 \9 n4 X* p1 C( y, P1 @' o1 Tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 x% P6 a4 f Y) d
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined O3 j7 E9 q2 S: k* z* H5 ^
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) e9 `2 L F1 o" _) [prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, f& x7 ~9 C+ b7 Z; k& Nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 M. i( B. L( j; G" j
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ V0 H |! c2 [+ [, [: v3 T30,000 new households will form in the province during5 ]; [ c8 ?! z7 h# G$ Y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. q7 O' C: ^ R8 G/ i! A1 y9 ~- M: Z( ?Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% F3 v' M; |1 ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 W% U. P$ F* k$ \! n/ h, w Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 j" @- j+ T8 c. D B/ E0 Y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 s2 \! t/ K& v, R# H7 uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: d, R$ u, k2 S0 {3 [0 e+ Tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- u% O1 ~# ^6 R& u. k
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 t. |1 o/ J1 S/ Hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. F% o6 e! M# r! @excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# A; b1 j; O) ~# W
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a4 }( x a8 a7 y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 Q* B8 Y& ]2 ~0 e7 S
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 n ~( M# z' u1 c2 c, r6 C7 s! xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% j6 }' [ d' yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 |4 I+ `9 A8 U" vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 m2 F; N# W6 u7 @- k3 X* Crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& M: |( Z( U" @" U) V& f+ yresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 }' u4 c9 K) [9 I* p& m
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! `) y3 c5 y1 Cof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' J, l1 N. ]+ X
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 e' n, a7 n- L
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. L6 { |9 p% @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 O* w; J# V" W$ U2 p
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ x" T& c% ~& u- ?5 s' j+ ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ R& Y* j( k. x! j. ^ Yrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 e5 [' q* x6 x" _5 X$ B, `prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; b' J2 B5 D7 q' a9 u& y# `though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners3 E; F4 ?+ f. z+ f" |9 [# f
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; {8 X7 G' \; X9 ?+ V* o) p
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average2 o+ J3 s/ J4 I: M, s8 ~/ W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 o O) p6 q. t+ Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: Y4 B' j% `& r0 m9 M3 ~homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! e {% F2 L- P4 cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 X! A! S% A+ N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& z2 |: C& d W4 g, y. tleg down over 2009.9 I2 S7 ?# n! r$ _: w) O
. M q% [# d% y7 B+ s0 N7 @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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