ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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; M! i# a( b6 \TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.

* g" W* T; b# b1 D' j"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

5 U" k9 ~4 g3 {  L$ i- DNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

) t& ^  M% C6 M/ h* e; o"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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* }; D" C7 c# e3 M4 `8 yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.

& a/ P1 L' _# @4 L5 A, yhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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0 N0 g3 j- x6 P1 l# ?4 u' f8 ~[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
7 N3 r, A. b' c. R! S9 r4 x, R跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

5 D/ u7 {. C% C很多人都回学校深造去了
, Y( R8 G' Y% Z' {: r; y. [0 l0 K嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
6 d* Y1 c/ O3 [& a( hWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 k% b3 p2 o8 e: B: _boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, n; Z- e: r1 H( {# d; M" a2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& j  b- Z# F$ {0 r% l# athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 b8 p( `! S7 B% z7 a, ]0 d# Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 i0 S6 Q) N' E% j3 x$ J# tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' o4 t) h+ l# p, G6 Q8 ]; K30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 N" \, o; X" l; h2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; n; z, \% T4 f+ d# Q5 b3 u" REven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 O1 h, o1 I; s6 ]5 Ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 r0 W1 d, d7 g) M/ n1 C7 j. Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 A! z; K0 ~- X* E9 ~has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ q1 A# V, `4 ]3 ^- O0 J$ C6 y# _households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; K6 `; @9 T4 L+ asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  |3 ^- B* P8 P% i1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# R1 |+ i+ |& G' ~unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
9 Y8 \  n0 Y" u5 Z4 g0 n% mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! p% J1 d' j8 D8 I* Hmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ K" f/ |- ~1 K4 Crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, ~7 h: L" l' _- ^) B( t6 J3 `( |boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 K; O# Q) V; s5 u" f, o* Y* E% zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 C: O+ V, F; ]$ l$ e  }8 b4 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. I  p5 `  T8 `. @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 q3 A% l, [% y! e' }; I% RThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 _' R$ `. \: w/ jresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 c  U7 B/ |- H4 H( N" vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 @! u5 Z1 F% Z6 x  E3 e6 Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
$ ~& ?% M+ S; g5 X) U& adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ |+ L# |$ k& E8 Y) z. g3 n& mleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 y* Q( }; S; m, {; e; i) VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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/ L5 M$ Y* J4 F& w1 y# |7 o[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

* n2 I8 P9 d6 H6 |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing