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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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  h- m% Q$ \! N2 Q- FTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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6 p8 r$ v) K4 F1 oThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. / Z% U1 {/ A6 {9 K0 p5 h0 C" n
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' j8 Z! G/ a+ q4 }: Q! I0 S
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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) Q6 k3 b. ?- ?4 v/ K. @- DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.- A4 ~, ]) Z; @# s4 y" L

/ @1 V4 ]0 W& A; M8 H! ?Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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9 I; p) M  y* i( g2 c0 e" f1 h8 Zhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,$ d% d& T# \" X8 @, L
& y1 G  V$ z' H& C/ n. [
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
3 g- @% ?. {' q1 B5 t! Z# S( S 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。+ L5 _  w$ t8 H
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 7 v4 D( `" u4 P0 o$ V& D7 g
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

5 S4 v1 i& Y/ {" A- i* q, l很多人都回学校深造去了
+ E9 r8 f) p0 ^7 {嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
6 f9 g% J6 f$ B  x" b" }4 m; cWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* I% j# s$ d0 O1 N
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, @% I: w. F# [; h
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' x6 P7 A4 M: D" X2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; w$ y6 j0 x' L5 t, S% y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided5 z' A' w% n7 K1 l. Y+ B3 q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# v5 Y: h- x0 C- o5 d2 F* x# X" `  p- R
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" _# ]- r, N' ?1 L( e/ X0 qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- o4 |# y+ ?8 J1 n* I1 ?  A) ?pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
) ^+ H6 B6 k; i7 O, ~precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 I9 ~& y8 |, U/ i0 `" {to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; b3 q0 V( m9 {) K5 Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* K$ D0 \# o5 |2 J$ ~$ {, W
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! Z8 z# W5 O9 \& J. V8 u( E
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around( H" R) j5 }1 h7 X! F; f# C
30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 C6 {9 K$ F, o5 c/ `6 [5 l+ G2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 _; R1 Y, x/ `7 g% _1 CEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! `5 k. V1 B. i- Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%9 g+ a$ I6 H3 F
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( x: Y4 i# p1 Y2 h/ f
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 }0 J1 ?* @" |9 I" n/ e% e
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. @- g/ h) g. S8 a, ^) d" E' Q% H; G6 Pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 }: R  c, ]9 I3 G8 n) Q+ L4 w
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories7 N3 B& `1 J6 Q$ K( p9 ~7 t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 \; C/ r- l$ P  @! E5 W$ _excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& P: P2 o9 B6 t5 R9 O+ f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- s$ x" [/ x2 B# M, o  S# E& F
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 \( Z% N& i1 p  `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" F" e7 p; y1 c& q5 w  dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 _* P3 N/ L6 A! |+ |unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) m+ F" B# k3 ]0 ?. E6 i3 h
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, D8 w7 y5 M& J! j% v$ G5 R
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# ^/ M  q" j4 b6 e/ H. {; \) l5 ]1 T
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* _. A, Y; G4 H
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ a$ J& V9 Q, O2 t0 |7 g
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 q7 p* e0 O- f! N5 {2 y4 i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 h* `8 t/ u# b( t( \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! V4 N7 u/ C" R7 p! x$ Y% Mboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' s, L. B* N. q# q7 i, BAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
. q" {$ v- K" S! bhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced  u2 X! c' L; n+ Q7 ^* x
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) C8 s7 Y5 r/ ^* z9 Hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# ^, A$ t9 m& m: a5 Y- r. ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ n2 p/ @  S9 H* `0 u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! J2 G% U5 N4 i% D) B7 }9 i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ O% h4 J& }' R: Q7 J
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! Q: L: J; o7 \5 z" a* s# W/ a& Z8 X
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 C6 [9 U6 }4 ]4 M4 R0 i% L1 Dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, f' ?9 n5 i3 Bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- T3 K& m9 a) T0 x9 V2 fAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 Y$ b% W# h7 Y/ S) eleg down over 2009., ]7 m# P% L  z, z* D. u8 t5 T
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. i. j  i2 [+ G8 t% qAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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5 e1 u7 d/ L% x% J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 _4 t. ~6 ?/ q- w. `8 d
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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( ]. l- P" H; W' I1 N( u$ `2 khttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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