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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.9 G1 P% z5 M- O- b* G! r
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. / g/ g/ S( u: K2 _

9 ?) U* Z3 L7 K6 l- L( KThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 `9 N' ~! E6 t  l

- a& v1 I  |+ v5 p* F"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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. f# H2 T# A1 p% xTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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' ^: y# P( U4 yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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/ x7 [$ p6 b* D: ?& fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,7 q! R# E2 ^5 ]( k8 q

+ v+ q- q/ ^" f& ^$ ?) F[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。, R3 E0 R+ H" w1 B$ ?
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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8 n6 m) w# c( \[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  T2 K2 E! H) k1 N2 \! t$ K- ^跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

6 @  ^3 r& I/ S" t/ ?/ r6 H很多人都回学校深造去了' H6 m; A8 u' i
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, J) W1 l8 F/ \3 ?  ZWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its/ ]& A) J! j( P" _0 B& v
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% s2 j' m7 w1 P+ i- q- w8 Fare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" p+ f7 B; N) p6 k* D3 o2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 s6 k; X0 k& Y) Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: G* X7 A5 W7 h  a5 \* p" k8 E4 gfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 c: @' e" y% h, wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; j! Q4 y9 c; Y0 |2 h
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 f0 v7 o: x# ?
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 V# x4 ?, W5 @! O. g: Z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 O' e) D7 V$ o8 |/ _6 v* Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) `, [6 L# J1 X  c4 w/ Y
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* o4 q, V* ~( Wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. f7 ?, Q/ n6 G' M# ]: c+ yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% u7 y3 r" A5 T: V, [  w! E30,000 new households will form in the province during
# t; i7 i; j5 x* G% z2 H2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. L) P& ~5 O  q% `4 i$ d4 R$ _Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ `# d0 W; S- h) e3 r7 qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' V( I: _' H& j" l
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. ]% R2 H  r" ~- [! {: K0 G3 |' O6 ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. f9 G$ Q6 }8 s0 |
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" J- X" v: O; V) |7 E0 s1 Q
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 w- ]% F+ T# R2 \0 H4 H9 Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories( J, f: Y; b$ @8 j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
: c1 g7 C, Q0 Z7 {3 X0 N- Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 n1 F  N. c6 Y+ t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 a' d9 U7 H+ ?" V/ O5 R/ V
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; l* U# C$ X* s; B3 b
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  p! o9 o( J- A4 T, B: s
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 K  |3 M7 m( F/ s2 z1 w0 ]" l
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- P; E& u5 U- a2 j
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 Q& B1 C8 g" F  ]
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ C9 \9 D2 H! n) ]! f8 A" c" Nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& A- q: I; ^; {9 v% O
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* G% a+ A* D+ J! P+ _0 t
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, }& E& L) ~- I* G# Y* g
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 G6 X0 W  N% ^# I
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
5 A! [# z  m" E8 bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 D6 ~2 c) G* F) M) r8 }( p5 u
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 v7 Y$ b, L4 A0 n. A. shousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: o* ]7 J' u- I' I, y4 G
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 n: n" t) Y! Q3 K3 L; S- G" v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* Y2 E; Q2 P8 z8 K$ F( cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. n# p+ j, ?$ u! K, E/ A6 i$ |
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
0 B- F* h0 Z" @2 sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ X% c( N' r2 d7 l
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 z+ l* X+ h  t8 s; i, Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& i- H" @% b, F  u! m' Xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" Y* K" e5 c: z( U1 A
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 {. J2 L6 f6 b: H/ Y4 U- P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: Q# i0 v% t1 P" w. Y; O
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 `4 C- h- r6 @  k% ]- rAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 h" T1 N/ j! t翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; J- H) ~+ e3 V4 l9 N

, k) J% |& t* \2 w# j5 Q7 M1 d8 Chttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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