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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta* g2 x) G0 ^) I( X6 r6 C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; w, b* p8 F( R: A3 m! Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( ], C* o. H" `5 {% z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" Z/ M: J" Y0 a& T+ V2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. Y: W a2 {$ |formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 C& h4 b$ C7 Z: G) J
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 H1 }3 u0 L* K4 B8 }3 {5 pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 F ~- {+ a, t, N
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. L) C. y8 ]1 |8 _6 h lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 @8 U- ?8 Q! b3 g* |; ~6 Z3 a+ pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. e9 P* i7 f) r
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& F7 F" v. a0 P% l0 X7 g6 D
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this8 X- \0 w. z7 u% W O
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 J4 n( o$ J4 k9 H: f& D/ | S( g# ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 k5 b1 A; ~! G& F, S- s, w/ P/ r30,000 new households will form in the province during
' \/ d6 S0 E2 P2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.' q) y+ K2 |4 r: X, L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' M" [ L& ?$ D) ^' T* Z5 H4 Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ a# C# N, J c9 w+ X5 n+ |during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 S. @1 ]$ F# m3 b. B% _ ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 |9 b3 c, ~5 w8 G! A3 W% {1 c* G( ?; b* r
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
# T: M/ v# U: W/ qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# w- f, ^# H( I- m! @sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 u0 v/ ~5 z( b. Y; a5 \5 h' M" [clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! ?) t( X0 T, R1 x1 F1 B! j
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. G" o% Z$ D: z1 l! c
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! k( F4 o9 W; j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 y/ V3 Z% H) m' W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 I& k' j# _( h L0 t( F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 d9 a* x9 f0 K8 w) \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 d0 ]3 R6 ]1 L. }+ dunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* A6 V% l% ^- _, t! U4 Y+ D, o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
L' z% G" I5 q& D/ Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 i3 H. I( W8 p1 J. z8 n* ^- Y/ O. Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( I! T. q5 P- b! l2 f& R& J( ^4 q& \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ F- z& d1 R. D5 f ~rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 r( H+ g1 W5 I$ MThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 j2 j& w% P H' Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 N: m' ?( C) d7 @/ r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
* E* I5 P/ G" \7 p+ w7 s5 [housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; M7 V' R% U0 T0 ~/ g$ G
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale S. V; x1 J( d* u- ~; c& p9 q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ x* b5 n* @8 j, L" Z' x7 qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. d- m; u% b1 Q3 S8 r$ t$ c0 C4 p& }9 l
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
0 J; C" z0 Q% H, fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 c5 m8 R, f0 X0 v$ T4 n3 yresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% q3 N& t' T lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 K& j7 z, U7 o+ z$ b2 h0 W
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( [$ w* k& x0 J1 n6 W% O/ Y$ e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 w$ B! [' ?8 K' P5 pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, p4 \& {( }, F. Hleg down over 2009.3 z, J8 ^' a3 L3 {; y3 X3 ^& B
& Q3 I" g# a9 e% T* h% D! k* N& z$ W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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