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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. : e5 E: M5 B$ Z5 l8 M+ }8 l
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 7 ~+ D" X( U' R3 K
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) I0 T2 ^7 T% P5 K
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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( g/ H) ]0 U- M5 ^"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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6 J0 Z7 W) P# ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.; h: @& R8 h' p. M+ R
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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) `4 R( f/ [+ A8 phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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) k5 G/ X2 s. L/ Q# G[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
2 u( }" z+ t' z5 N- j& u 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。  E: ^6 X9 J5 {$ D! Y3 J4 \0 b- G
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- g, _* ]( ~: b$ _0 c5 B) h! f跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

% f# a  x. \  B  A- Z4 v# w& N很多人都回学校深造去了
+ ]: q9 N+ Y+ @1 y$ t* a嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta# j- z4 R1 R- ^) |1 g! p  m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. s; h$ w( D1 C+ jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# F" t" o- ?( `/ S* G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& z7 [/ k. V5 N, H. s2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 M# O- V) W4 o. J0 i; rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
" B& G6 A! O7 C2 ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% A* P$ y# `7 `2 y9 U) B  b* [the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 b9 b$ E- ^; |/ S6 e% u$ a
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 H# M/ N9 \9 c" l" c
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# k: ~$ e# s1 H& L. ^& G) @% h! `
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 @6 s2 i( K7 p$ o" {to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year% K* }2 _1 B3 [9 k$ l4 O( a' V. L
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 w) I; J" A' u2 U/ ryear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 d3 }2 T+ s) Y' z3 |. p
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ A/ `9 w  Y1 i6 |30,000 new households will form in the province during
. r& x) H. q) U. p  C8 @; m2 v2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 }( q* b+ v# O) R1 C1 UEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 }+ q/ D( p, U6 k( C5 r& v
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& b  T# [% h) }6 f+ D- ^$ ], {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ D8 Q+ b5 ^! y6 B+ H4 g, g" M& f0 ^1 \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" D+ Z$ Y. }0 T  H: o+ e3 p4 j: [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ d7 O; s- N# d. _6 ^during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) N: Y' I9 q' e: h7 y
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 R" q4 z/ K% ]* [3 U) p( Eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& m+ |2 U; C1 k$ Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 u( S, t! e, C1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% d7 B2 A1 ]5 _  W6 esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ X( A( U2 _6 N* \2 Q" Qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 a% Z7 a" i; K
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# |: |2 ~! N7 L7 `: ~  x9 {unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 g4 L( M2 r& {: n
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ p) p8 u. C0 R& V5 lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! B1 h) U8 v) Z$ E- _5 W7 Fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% E7 y+ t' R& e$ P! _+ |9 F  ]major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" }+ r+ G4 o* A1 |0 oof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 W. s/ v" I4 Z* I! ~" f6 nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 T$ r$ S5 I, _: x4 [' d( n
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) w4 F4 k) ?+ F  @- o5 wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( e9 v9 O3 S. A# m0 n. WAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan6 g% @& |6 G- T5 I3 G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) C7 h( K' W0 \7 M( Y7 r
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 u* ]8 r  p: m2 h" }
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even* E: O& K, I8 k; m7 B% d; D
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; x, A) K7 u& }  R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! v& K+ u5 n, L+ YThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 A& m+ J/ @6 A8 v, M. N
resale price in February is evidence that past prices% T0 X" I9 B3 ~/ C, ^" v
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 z* L) k. F# A9 Y& J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- ~- x# @  L5 _+ o4 I% fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* Q- o- w  {! C0 m, H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' o4 y' G, L; B$ ]* K6 m
leg down over 2009.$ K; A# f9 v$ F2 o! Q) @
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) h2 u7 E& f8 D2 S. Y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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% M) g; A/ @, N8 {# I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 0 ~* |, g3 A) b/ K! d$ b8 D
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" b- N& }1 z# S7 @

. N; b5 e! u, O/ D2 t/ U) T6 U, Ehttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments6 Q: A0 E$ K4 X  {6 u4 Y

- j4 w! h  \, p; \4 Y" z1 q$ @) g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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