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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.& m1 C( t- Y: l5 S
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 8 v' g; M2 H* T9 W+ I' W+ f
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. * q+ I! i& i5 \- }9 R
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. & g9 L9 U/ f( O3 H9 B0 K
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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) c' ]3 _' {% Q2 e* ~http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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( q9 @6 N1 U2 T$ J. O$ F9 J  mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 }5 q. I' R+ N# ~ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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' M5 J6 [' @1 C, K6 V% \[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 u# ~+ _! [$ }# A! [1 Z. o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
0 o0 S( Z5 I% {' i, i嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta' j) L2 U3 d; f
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
! t5 L8 Q# c( c7 mboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# j2 r2 M* u- U' J0 M! ~' n, d
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ p7 Q: |, {7 n% D' {2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: g$ t9 P8 O5 r* G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# g0 D0 ^3 O. F0 h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( w/ W( v; x& k# K. j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 r5 j+ T* y8 C% E; [1 J& gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous- @+ B  ]4 p+ R
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: z- V2 x( o5 H
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 V# ~8 Q& Q+ K1 X' \7 E; b5 G
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- A$ ?1 j( e! j. }1 iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this8 h: T$ C4 N2 H* G
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 R# ]) U4 k" P
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around6 S& J5 E! E& e: |: Q) D8 q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* A6 _6 y& o0 [3 n4 x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 K2 u% |* M4 t2 I5 S+ t9 ?
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ {8 G+ t2 ~4 Z6 Q$ Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 L4 h- I8 F2 s) L. yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- ?2 R1 ]- {0 q, O
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new+ G; B! L  ^+ r
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
# [7 h) O+ z: U& \1 Z7 cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 [) p% x0 |) K1 j, esales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' k# ]+ c7 h  G8 E$ \& j4 L' `clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! L4 s" f% D+ v4 j$ G: G" c" rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" {. c; G% E7 c9 r; @1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 k" ^; y: |$ s. N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 Q+ G* w$ O! k; wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 {! h' U: d, J: c/ K8 y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
' O, K8 }0 v0 qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& R" ]3 @- f: _4 c2 X# E
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, F6 Z& L2 \2 r; I' precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ D$ n5 s6 f( q5 ^6 e+ D( Sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 O* Z" x. ~9 o3 k& j% O1 }, c- a
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! I  `% g6 p7 N
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. w/ W6 X) b8 q" W! |% Q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" |0 j! B1 t; e! ^The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 F" p" T7 B) {4 t' T, d9 `3 @; cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% D% m5 y% q2 `5 C% g5 d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: a: j* P/ V  S8 T- i$ }housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; B& B0 j  w: S; `2 U7 K9 U  nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 g# [& N; W7 v. T8 h/ n: Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even1 N+ v3 x" ~3 i0 b% o
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
  E7 z7 z$ O( Don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.5 P" X* W' j& V/ X& M
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. l! X. d8 ]& g3 |: Y
resale price in February is evidence that past prices9 d3 T2 A! P% A
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 J+ [) C1 h# W+ l4 h2 Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# H$ @# t2 A8 Y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 ^# H- g8 X/ q) HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ W4 k; Q, w5 A) @# q
leg down over 2009.
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7 X! `: ]9 F: [7 z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 S& M; p$ }% F: X: G2 ~Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
/ R, I' f' a3 a# I9 k" U. H翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子: t, e. f$ h8 {2 E7 C6 Q

# ~. p( Z. Q# O0 Whttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 Y. ^6 Q  b8 O, Z9 V8 E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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