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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
% d, }- L7 d6 s, _( K# BWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 x6 d2 ?" N6 e6 L( r- z( Lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* P4 {) J1 T0 I) ]& r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 H1 @, b8 A6 x3 v9 b2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 n! C" j% R7 p$ i& f
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! P: Y. Y2 K0 [+ X/ I
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 i% T; j( Y h( P+ L5 b! n* Cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ C9 U) D. ]) N, z9 Lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 h0 r; ]; x4 F# Apace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 u3 H$ i i, O/ S0 p7 b
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, K& C } n- n, p @2 X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 p2 [1 W1 M9 V0 A1 ]4 nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& U6 h+ x' c1 x
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 C0 D5 f& {/ y- h& o1 fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( x# p" Z7 U3 @9 c30,000 new households will form in the province during) h) v! M9 Y. E
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ Y( U% n8 R- T; S& \; _& V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: f8 ]9 W# \' D! D7 ?5 v
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
. `! E' a; z: R5 V0 N4 Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 R2 S' P' J3 R, S' Bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 X w1 N2 ~' \& G
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals# ]) j: j1 e! J* k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 z( v( T0 T/ d4 r' e* Y/ N" C, w- Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 S* N/ a! |" p; J# a' P8 l. {
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 L% Z$ z5 J& Q6 H. h7 T% j& vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 h% l$ U# x, u7 J6 R3 x- l
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ p0 T& B+ O$ ]- {9 W% Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 ~, y4 o' m8 N% T- v
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
t0 a; ^4 ~$ V9 etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: f. k5 f$ f; f6 L' Q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* ~% ]+ A+ ]4 t7 o+ s+ l4 O) A
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# L) |, L; g. v) i
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" d- A8 U0 v1 Y0 @2 a& l% Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" U4 X4 A5 |* X& qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) E+ C# B" }+ a7 `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ v2 ]1 u6 O( C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., S7 I. M7 a6 f7 `% P
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 Q! f$ |3 O, v% |+ o
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
g; g" \5 l5 Y' vAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
( B; p" v1 s' v, T0 q$ Z6 R+ qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; ]' G7 u4 U7 s/ A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 F: W5 V: J; Y% l# b; y8 zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 r: O0 t" D9 a. }though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 O3 A2 j& h" V6 u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 U& v2 |7 C r4 WThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, Z4 P. j* j, e" R+ E% hresale price in February is evidence that past prices
. [( l% a. v/ a' h$ a4 Wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 G1 }( p0 Z4 Uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 h V/ n; y; B$ F' z0 a- X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: a: H, u% c1 q: F5 ~. g# M7 k/ @Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! E+ H7 r) c' [- e2 i
leg down over 2009. x9 }/ |4 n! ?
* d1 p1 v$ e% p/ F[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' }: }! ^0 R( J6 X( J9 V4 @
2 n! q/ }: [# y7 T0 m
