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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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' ^; U  M% L: JThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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9 u- V7 x0 }  |7 _% W"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.   R7 B. h, _1 @

/ l* E4 a8 k% l7 u- yNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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. e9 q" z2 h/ w& d7 Y2 TTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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  H; U, Q, Y' T) o  G"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 t* n: K) z8 J4 P" p

4 o7 z1 M& E- w9 E3 `TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 P) q6 D( _) d& @5 g: f, O
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 3 b( l0 T4 ?0 f/ M6 L% _

& ~0 B. @. f, Bhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
  |  H. D* D' S- {. b! X3 Y2 a* J

& u) B- {3 T& C. MTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
) T) n) b* E" a2 p0 c( N  \ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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" L8 p1 L1 q( Z) @[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. O) B' w9 t9 l; g& x0 u" h1 C跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
: C5 ?4 X- H/ F$ l* ^嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( S- k3 B% ]3 w, {# E5 J
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 @4 u8 V  @- w* V. c3 L) q6 w
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 V* T$ q+ q' s+ P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& v* w# Q% X1 v; O6 g0 h2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( ^! f  v& Y3 k8 ^* ^
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- R6 W9 q9 ]! g# ~/ Ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 z: _; v6 f$ @& ^0 R6 ?: `2 }% j/ H
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& i6 u0 V) N# k) Q& J9 r+ Vmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- L2 M4 ?9 Z( n7 c( O$ Wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 ]. T. b5 [! f" ^5 J% E. \
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. f) R9 e8 {& ]# M/ Y+ e# V/ N
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ e5 v. D8 g( Z
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 O  j( |/ s* K
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, O' H" e, C2 q4 {2 q
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around; N! @) o* x7 a' t
30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 W6 i5 J9 Y- \2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 B1 J1 Q. s/ s
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s. }2 o3 R" R6 C2 W" B; y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 h: [9 j( x" [! z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 H( d+ v0 g( t7 T2 L+ B. B
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new  x( k. `. U; P9 ?
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 _& P. q( D3 o8 s
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# [% o7 G# S' e8 i# E1 _! t9 }
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& r5 k  H4 }. p& Q3 r- b2 Oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ T% _3 d' }* R
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- ]/ |* k9 y# _' B. N
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; q6 h4 E4 x8 F- c7 W! \sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 k9 k" ^  ^8 E& D5 o# S+ |buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' g4 S0 |. u1 [; \: F* ?) O- ^two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: r% q  N4 z$ H- k' E, W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 Z1 k. N0 K! @unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 s9 s' P/ |/ o4 Y; q4 L( J/ e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 s* @/ A: V+ J' E9 Sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 E3 |$ }2 H, ]% T* U9 y0 u& y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories" D7 O$ x9 F) }$ r7 f/ |
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# h% x. R; L0 L/ Xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 o* _  q* I( x( i( E
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 m9 b2 v8 X5 U/ P
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., \) a  L# K# l# ~$ X
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! \) l; ?+ N. N! R4 fhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
, w, |- J  o6 I+ k. s, Z& Drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 Q# q. R$ P* y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 P% k3 T3 y6 G3 G5 }though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ U# H4 d% `' s# \8 i7 aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ F. n" Q" ~9 z& S& I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, {/ H- t6 S  ~: E7 Y9 C3 i, \( d
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  ?; ^* f2 p: j9 qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ G% a2 }+ r) I+ ?7 C1 chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 N: D7 J; M1 Q% P* ~' A
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, P# {5 U0 A, m6 n$ L* Q7 N+ r' Q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 l6 e1 n6 z( K$ b! {
leg down over 2009.
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( Z: A+ Z% N1 o2 u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! P. E6 C2 ]: }( d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.   K6 y0 R( C$ w( B7 X
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. U2 @8 I0 C& Y
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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