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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.$ ?7 D$ g2 v- Y4 H/ T, {
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. % w4 ]! N! R9 n7 m6 Y

3 O& @+ l+ P$ @% |The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 3 |1 d& {4 f5 x4 f$ z: c; e3 {
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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3 N0 G* }  F+ xNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.6 o) W- F# n; n! i( m
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) m+ y2 L, m2 z

0 ]9 _$ m3 V' n3 Y$ o8 j. WMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ E/ Z& C6 @" q% P& H$ J, b4 X

1 V2 X* \1 v9 p: [+ dhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% ~5 T% O7 r/ C+ S4 b( T 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! f5 ~9 p, q8 t+ `' f9 C5 w

  k2 _% H8 ]+ ~0 {. N" m, Y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
" r( W+ q4 Z9 w  B3 }$ l: U& ~跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

' V# ^# `* Z. e% n/ L9 k6 q很多人都回学校深造去了9 i$ h: m9 M  B9 l
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- ]/ p" U3 o" F% Q5 G7 u: r
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 p* i* }8 l/ a+ M2 Z% B% uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- w$ H& X( f1 |1 v# y+ H7 b  c( X
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# p% E5 d  o8 r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ G) `9 J) a# c( y3 T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# F$ `* j6 ]% S) `6 x1 [6 P
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 n3 k7 [6 z7 ^! tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 Q9 O  k' h. y1 s/ q6 J! G& k& o; `may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! o3 Q; |2 ?6 Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 A5 _* J; A" p+ B! q% p% ~precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 W' t4 x" M- ]: h4 n8 t. J. U
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 x* R* I$ f3 n& O' t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ V. o$ q7 k9 `& r( C4 }3 q/ l( P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: G. @, s  A% d3 u% Vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" R4 r/ l+ L: p# q) @, `
30,000 new households will form in the province during1 R7 p  v/ H; K4 n0 P6 ]
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) U1 r0 A1 S$ k" {' p; c7 m1 Q  h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 e* h* C& ~: l
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 v4 R; r( ]2 U3 y  yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- }! @; z9 k6 G+ D. B
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! v) a9 w# X/ a3 z' Uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ D; h! `" E" E8 uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ U5 ]3 e( z- i! e. p# bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ ^( j  C, n1 }! sclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) i6 P6 {& l) S5 _7 ?: t  _excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: e4 H2 D- C7 l8 U
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 x! {; F* J/ h! B
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( F3 I0 M2 k5 r  _! _
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ F2 `% G0 @/ P% B; I: F  ^4 Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( [4 e3 D7 N6 o. Q# e% R5 N; E6 m
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
  g7 A; ?8 \6 P8 o% Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' ~* }" W, {# f# L9 Trecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 A9 k: _% G0 @/ }
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 G7 e! T4 e! m  ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' x9 D9 K/ x9 _( dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 j* {9 }& @1 ?5 q7 o# U5 wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 x2 m. x0 c" u* ^8 o- \2 iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 G0 B, K3 d' u, x% s/ N
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 w  D& I/ ]9 ?* d$ lAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan! |( e9 \5 T5 y, E
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 K9 O  U* |# M0 Z+ P
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% r9 ]8 F" j" U+ d+ q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even/ E2 e& L* C6 g0 b& Z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# ^: f" R+ _& d+ u. A% q/ p( s" uon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 v- b9 T- v" R
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 i+ P) X$ N9 G; I  qresale price in February is evidence that past prices1 x7 i6 a9 b3 w5 F
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 \/ ^) B$ U4 c" T8 i/ Phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! O% |! c) D2 Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," R$ R5 [' D( }! J% B9 t) B7 W
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ ^9 E( f) E, E
leg down over 2009.' K5 j" T/ U. v3 ?9 u6 H
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: o+ b% q3 o8 V- y3 _
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' q4 V8 v# o  u) d& s& m
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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  x' o$ [4 q" Z% U3 [& Bhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. e5 c3 f8 a1 b5 F; v- P/ A* c

, L3 U# ~* S7 z5 b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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