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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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. s1 p% ^1 _9 L% K0 d( I- Y) lTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 1 c; n$ S7 N+ |$ H, t; j  Y

8 n( F2 ?7 _/ |6 p8 Q! g# Z& V" FThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ( S2 E' r5 |$ F3 }6 {
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ( G( c# o$ W  G. @% B
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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4 \' g$ l5 f  C$ PTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 d' I# _4 P6 g

9 P# {$ t* O8 W6 a' ^$ CMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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0 z; f" @$ }3 n$ E# K  zhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,; X: k3 U6 ?9 k! b

8 P! Z1 U( s' W5 T( h. f+ P[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
+ V: G, l" P* k! e 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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! q2 D1 s' B0 ~4 s! k5 P[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
0 H4 H, M/ o% X  p, P跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了: ]+ p- Y! R$ H; m- S* [3 N! f2 ~
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
9 h+ B1 |4 H' k( d/ R. }Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 W6 j, r( t% y  h' rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) ^* I0 x' c3 h1 }& N; F+ I
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, P+ i8 ~, b- c7 `4 T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 `/ u) O6 t% ]* V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 T6 Z7 l7 S# e$ B1 M
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 J# Q# P5 s/ F5 W7 N1 h/ |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ k) y1 h; g7 u/ w) ~
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( X9 O0 v' i; A" G4 @) h; \$ G7 Zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# E* `! w7 ]0 p9 \& W
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 [) j3 r- {6 B9 \6 b- Y2 Jto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 s* |$ b( f, U) `2 c- ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& ^8 a9 ~3 ^2 u: U0 R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 |- @+ d( ~9 G! W& e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  x, s) C/ D  U' ]+ y7 A  e
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: L8 F/ Q, I7 K9 r6 t: G% C2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# B' D: b, s" i5 c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 W: G# a' Y. P9 r" B3 I% h
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 X) R* T4 B5 j8 sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 T* z8 f! p0 B0 P& @$ S, Xhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% m/ f$ k" u' s" A" q* h" D& c" lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! m+ u6 f/ @. l$ }0 B$ k' H$ Bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% e+ S( k$ z! j7 K0 V& l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. C5 H% T! {( d( b, Gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 f* I# S5 n2 |, Eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 c7 r% w# N, e8 {# p: I1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 b1 L5 }" B2 j  N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 w# C& E# d2 B9 `1 Z' \, s: H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 ?7 `$ l+ K1 m* v4 d8 d+ ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 A' Q6 J) M6 c1 N/ Hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- N; F0 _9 l& Z4 ?8 K: aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  O( v5 r0 ]$ v6 y3 qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 @0 f4 \. L' L, X( ^- _
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: S: G9 B# F9 Z. J6 J' w) R. C* Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- y  f+ t5 e5 j9 b8 ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 E- p1 J3 ?1 u# |rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 c* T' _6 r8 c6 L& O( _2 p' u: OThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s5 v1 O  T4 F/ j4 S2 \
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ O# i7 c, W! b  MAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan# k3 F, J9 x! r, j$ S7 b  T: N# r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. j/ q; S2 ^0 r& D; D6 wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale; A& l( ]3 [2 W& y& T. F6 C
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ R0 b+ f, q/ y& L& r' jthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 u, }/ G" @; R5 U4 B/ g2 O8 y( Q) kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 e9 g( o1 M  U# g) a1 ZThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( L9 b! e. I. V: e5 }6 p0 a+ I) L
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 _/ a$ G) v; Xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  L1 ]% h4 M* `- |: ^* chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ K* K2 t# g+ X  {deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 y( c) w/ t4 P- X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 ~& ?  O. l( F6 f" m$ I! W! _leg down over 2009.7 |3 P: D; J7 n0 C* O
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. k" `* U* B8 M. ^3 m6 W% W' p
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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( f7 a5 ^5 T; @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% `9 c8 ]( U( f+ @" }翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; U$ {! l  }$ q4 F
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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1 g5 U" j( T, _[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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