埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2262|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 b5 S6 Y$ Y2 R, I6 X) T
9 }% X; o, Z- g
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
7 J1 w" j3 c0 M/ N( ?: k- i& d. F
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 b. P/ K; G* K5 O2 u2 G0 E) o

6 [+ {) y  H7 |) {. b"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
. s$ K* E" o- P. j& R- {. U8 @
1 y3 B  i7 `: |, M3 {& mNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# n5 e1 `  m0 G2 C% e6 E

  l$ U; i; R3 ITD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.5 T$ ^/ ^: q. |

/ F. g  ?& n- w% A"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 O/ S/ G6 b( c' z7 L' Z( g

& U* t& }  F; Z' _TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
8 Q' M5 _5 I% H. W: ?. k
( ~& Q( q6 l' g/ i# J# T4 L. ~Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ' u, c$ F7 `& s- Q3 m+ v
; R4 W0 R5 e8 g" p3 I
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

/ g3 X- }) n- l. t2 w
+ @) J1 s, z0 lTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,$ v0 Y1 O: L3 u2 [2 Y( N

* l4 y$ k% L: }8 X[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
- Y# U7 y0 a3 L+ j1 o 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。5 e* A% w7 G" e* J) p, `
5 b# N" B4 s, c, W8 m9 H7 M
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
: ]3 [4 O3 l4 ~* X+ l8 `跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
- ^. N1 ?& T) v5 j% P
很多人都回学校深造去了. \% M1 g; N* ?7 J* Z
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 c; r; q* w' B, D+ a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
+ F9 f- @- B1 c9 w4 Cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 I8 T- T  [* `$ B2 d; o8 a8 oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ B# b& t9 Q/ g8 s9 d3 b, E5 i
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
9 R3 h3 \: _6 h. F, c, Rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: E( z. y: S% l5 Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. _" q! L& V& D& P, |; K3 x! ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 I$ v9 r0 o5 umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 J. v( B& y2 Space of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed  {. T% ]0 M0 M; r) y7 h5 U. q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, C8 s' d, F8 E' Y) ]* Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& ^! s- Y% h  _- bprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ h) ]$ r$ h1 o+ o% Qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ }. |! q' e! i  d0 y0 s5 Rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 F' F) l. w/ Z1 F: s
30,000 new households will form in the province during" _  c) E3 o) ]9 G0 n. Z% s5 d1 b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# B0 {, _" o7 e( ?, ~. J' DEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ S- g9 P0 g. R3 h8 n
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% q3 O4 _8 _% s5 B& R- h
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 r. W6 a) z. `1 _
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% `4 }* U* ]9 w% G, _# \6 Ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. f- D* o* F$ w0 e+ n- ^0 \( {3 O3 Jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* }1 v* A9 N+ H0 B+ R2 _& |
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 ?3 h3 _7 X: v3 F9 V0 ~8 p. q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 |/ T& ^+ |' g1 X0 K9 lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of% |, b) |9 G/ _0 z& Q' f* w+ f0 Y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ f9 Y) X1 }- q2 M( X1 }& k5 V$ Qsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 o, t' c, X6 Y& s9 g$ Ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 ~- ?$ I$ Q* c1 b9 ?' G
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in' Y/ F  E5 a- N, K/ ]
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 g) b9 u: J' a( L
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 V) @% A& F; |# T' q  H. w
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, z! T$ ?: k" J9 c$ i; k+ y8 P
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" w! q. N4 A% ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
: e5 q7 P6 d5 |2 z) T, D4 Xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( Z+ ?  c0 m# a/ k) grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 _7 [+ `/ R% B3 O% b. }
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& y0 y$ c0 N; Vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 Z& y) D% a) z; ^
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) k! _4 h. z8 m0 D) o& v- F% Shousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 G- b% A0 X$ m+ }( Q. }6 K
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" E/ C! G$ o4 ]1 ^- C$ W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 X- P4 m. @9 t8 w6 x% Y; Jthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; y* G8 L; s& p" k( |- P5 |9 V# b% X
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.9 y0 _9 T( v, B# y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- g8 d* d$ f* Y  H  N
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 H7 X/ y4 U7 ~. ~, s. z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, f4 x5 g( Z) X, y8 C! B: K
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# _) X2 C" F4 p# `/ Kdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; j  S0 L8 S8 F4 NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 e: Z# [' \! y, R. @leg down over 2009.. B( M* u! L4 `) x5 A( i# E) g

% ]! |% k2 P0 l) z/ [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ f% x; U2 M" L  [
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

+ q& w7 X; ^7 ]/ o( {; P) a! a) F. {  H/ B. F
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  K2 E4 q( e2 {0 M+ R9 D翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子; D( m/ K/ R. I2 c/ K

' T% s. _# j8 X9 \$ ^; `http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments+ z; V/ H' C& [3 `
+ H% A/ S# O4 ?0 G
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-4-21 10:54 , Processed in 0.128479 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表