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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ S7 m) s) A1 a3 J" Y
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# q# D. z: \' a; j T
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" j8 F- S; ^# `" B5 ^3 s
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. @9 |0 k& Y8 a( r7 l5 o+ J
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. H) o# L* F6 G/ \' k7 rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( |6 O0 A1 `3 L' x' D- {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 N9 S! J+ h* R7 n' e# R/ f5 N8 Sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 y& Z3 a6 h7 h3 ?! M
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 t$ N6 }4 g) v( k5 wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 ~( t* Q$ v: \% ~- B. J& u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- j9 H7 W- {* ]- N- R8 [& C$ r
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( R8 U; a$ b1 [" ?
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' n! i0 i/ b7 X7 ]2 b0 q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ t6 }8 E$ O. [9 k- lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; q1 A6 I/ N# f- Y) A$ v! e8 L, ~* B30,000 new households will form in the province during3 Z; ]0 U, z# y$ u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. V3 Y* `) O! t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* j& C# C& F+ i# m5 h6 R7 \$ @8 thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 J/ g/ p6 J# e: U u6 w# b4 Fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 F. B2 l) U; s" J
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) R% U" V) `8 T. t l# v0 X7 k H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals% Q/ Y% }5 ~% r4 \
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 N% L( F: C, [3 c: l8 k/ b% z! Psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: Z, `7 E3 F# `0 Q' T8 Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 B/ H( [# G9 X8 c& j u- d% u* v: U
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 C5 N ~, f( S- w1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ {% L. G( d$ p' E r: z$ l
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. y$ J, g0 X+ O8 K1 |; Pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; R) d) D8 s) ]0 B, n
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 B% Q1 b% o3 U; Nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! d& o8 b5 K4 g
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) c6 b G+ u/ C+ e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( M/ a' a' c! l7 j
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; B* E: e+ s) c8 h: J
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) a8 ~, p, n$ {& x
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled& J: Z7 l* }" p6 m) k4 v7 M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 A5 V( e7 u+ V5 B
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! A4 ^ ?$ y0 r' {6 C
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 d. t. h2 S1 b$ J) w! i4 P/ CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan2 H* h. q2 Y# g( }! y" Y+ f* `
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 U9 b# I( T- e( N$ s8 p, \, ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 {/ x) [9 h! t! W5 }3 iprices substantially eroded affordability and, even* p7 Y; e) [, `* E5 {' Q1 c! E
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' p o1 E$ E3 j: z2 Z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' B$ W. g# [& ~% `/ x5 |6 uThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
+ o3 d" R1 v- I: b# eresale price in February is evidence that past prices: {$ X. ?& w3 M' A, `
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* @- q# \1 U4 Qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# H5 G0 e; `! d; d- L9 g+ L
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) i) A$ I1 F4 `" x& [+ b$ q: k8 `4 P) CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 {- O$ s; {1 V9 M8 t& Y: Aleg down over 2009.
$ ]$ r- q. X% D1 H- A+ ?# t
" ]: B( _/ T, {/ k8 H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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