埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1961|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
& \# E, a$ d5 C1 t0 y, V2 F$ n; P  G* q% p; X4 Q
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. # v* ?( E# m$ w. N

7 f% X: P9 u8 o$ ]/ VThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. # H  I2 F) U. U7 N: H9 Y

8 U! @7 M" B8 }8 r$ G"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % Q# a* ?0 n) ~
+ @+ ^0 e& |3 h! S/ ]
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
# V, O% E, ^6 h3 A' D( ^
# W* I$ t3 A  q1 e: f5 x& N: D# V  r1 }TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
% m. j- Y% C7 u+ r/ O; T) C5 a* c* b( ^1 H
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) x! @' x9 ~. j$ O4 B
: j. d. x) O2 Y. Y+ H* ]
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
" c* q3 w' @6 r3 {. Z7 V  j: X
' k+ a) }4 K" Z' mMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
) T' {/ K/ D# `0 \, o4 R) M0 X9 l; I8 {% L* o7 k
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

5 A  [$ ^2 o2 N! X1 o# j, n
, [2 C, W5 ?9 w) a. p" L/ rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
' c$ D, \$ j9 C4 Q7 }+ M! }: k! r0 `. a& |+ Y0 Z1 L( {
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 O, [# y! g' y, v6 y% s1 l2 C 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
& M0 f% f7 r2 p' L" ?
$ `( C( J  o5 ~( V* d! q; i; k[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
. ]1 ^8 y1 C* t& [' Q+ {3 U4 z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

* x2 E( ]" L6 U8 [7 r很多人都回学校深造去了( z7 W0 J' S) Z; e  k4 g: [4 J& B! x
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; k1 [4 u' ?, N" J5 n- H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" Q- d  b; k0 r2 v$ s3 A1 n+ @
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; R& O+ J$ h8 G" G3 C; i) c) n, \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. j) R- R+ B% x5 [0 y: h$ V2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! n/ }$ B- G* }5 _- l6 X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ X3 U% W  m; x' Q( ~, {) C" zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# f5 s9 ]% n' w) }6 A1 [; d3 \
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  o# Q" H7 @+ fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 U4 J: ?, b2 j" i) J
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 D' ^2 w# c5 c( _. H7 K; ^precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" @# ?4 V# Z" l, {to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& ]0 J8 [* X. a0 s# z" c" C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* {3 V$ h2 T, {5 Nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 f' M* d, z/ D  @* j1 ]homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: ~- w3 U. \4 ?# L% {+ y
30,000 new households will form in the province during* T+ L9 C* a/ r4 T1 W. E& A6 n8 U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 v( g6 @( V9 ^Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 m" {6 B4 d" c; D
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 W/ N  \$ l; ?0 E# q4 e3 Bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: N/ [( o: g, ^! g6 |has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ H6 F( c: ?: [1 u: P0 lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" Y" l( V3 m/ Y3 w  C" N
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
: L+ H: M0 J) R' i( Y% _4 Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 O5 B: J$ S+ y$ h. b, zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, m. f. E) r- D2 `5 b$ Bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) O/ l% J1 D" B5 ~3 O! T
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
  r  C6 V7 f5 `) y* O9 |8 f" Psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 V' V- q/ g  {% Y4 Q' K
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& T9 l7 O; U2 i8 w- c' A' l
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in. C8 G7 ]( x' d
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 W8 n4 y- ]3 J4 A+ F
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 e8 a: y. d# [3 u( {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 I9 f( _- k4 N" x# P
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s' B# r. `; _8 ]+ P8 K$ n7 n  Y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 h; Y) g' c* ^/ t& K. Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 D: O7 G( w% B: brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( F' N3 U4 \9 r7 e# vThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 ?& e. M- N( n
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., K: n! x* u4 P0 s  |
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% [- _: R: a1 i! B) Q  G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 u, P7 d6 H" crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" C5 o8 M. d4 |9 P) m1 Q+ q7 W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even) r5 `, F( \& p& o; l/ V+ p: ]
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* j; n3 E! G/ i5 H9 y% K9 s) S- z) Ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 g! P) I+ V; E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 X* z/ O& \! t% N* d% Q" presale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 k5 O/ J5 W, Dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" f1 K9 a; T7 X0 K+ l9 s2 h
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ y- r0 B' @6 w# V7 s& F8 e; v5 ~deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 c$ z; G6 i) }5 y. ~# wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" S4 W3 {8 k  l7 B& l4 yleg down over 2009.* ^+ x: n9 B. [  @6 V
* u3 a8 v  t0 G+ s1 y! ^/ Z
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( q$ Z8 h8 S3 o* |1 oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
/ E& w0 T8 Y+ u. a0 T
1 r4 D( M! }, ~$ S% N4 `8 l5 o5 n
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
4 t( M% I$ {9 S翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
2 w, l. E# ~' e3 ]5 x2 ]. Z
& N/ t; v* c; G; `* yhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" A! J8 `- Q/ K( E' p  t8 o8 ]& h

1 G" Y+ V8 }* q* i+ H  D5 g; t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-12 08:18 , Processed in 0.128765 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表