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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta: ^9 L' N: `0 r1 R" ]: v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 |/ i) d$ n7 E/ F4 X! V* o8 Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 b9 G! a/ M4 Z! `) L
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ h# {. C: t" s9 P5 e2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 |4 J4 c; A+ \" c+ w: i' ]* U/ |" }
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 `: U4 } X# \! m: i/ efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 d2 F$ r; m0 G8 F( f, m
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 `8 e2 r- S0 o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; U& a: _5 t- C8 ~- M* X9 @$ W8 Y5 Apace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: l9 v9 k/ c: R, l5 qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 W5 T0 K8 S0 n1 J( t7 O2 Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year% m' K) y) }/ D
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 i' N7 b [( l. w* A. ^ _, l% Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- S* y l6 }* g: \' D1 T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. ~+ [; s* D3 H& c4 T' h' R30,000 new households will form in the province during2 m! m* f" X" z2 i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ p, q; ?! @4 ]/ G n9 E* XEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: U0 Y3 p6 |% W: |7 ?) ?# ~& S6 f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
C* Z/ T( A* s: t% {during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* L9 } h4 V" t7 B# @4 F% Vhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& } F# v7 Y$ F* Z2 }& X4 r, |4 d
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( e, V8 W1 W. G+ m' kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# Q5 y& z8 b/ s, \+ O
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! D1 K" G7 m* T0 j9 C* Yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! A9 O0 n; w" I# |excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ C$ x; x P. A( V# P; B
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. x- ]0 m4 S( z- u, F* ^sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- g/ s# d7 v1 a+ X& o0 X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 |/ u- b# [5 b% E* t3 s
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ d+ Y* m( Z( T, Y+ y- @. h
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( {1 H w* n# S7 Z
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* b# `& Z2 G( Y6 F' U; ?2 grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; T' N. H% f9 H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 x' @3 u. R' \1 @1 a: |4 {7 l8 K
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- j. g5 M2 G* |* ?; w) ^, D$ tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! x1 s) M! i$ `$ X% w: Z% c
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.& |3 K; ~9 y3 l$ i. V
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
?: V7 m5 ~/ s" B! P% C" {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: V% k% @1 e9 d8 J5 oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
2 z" o& M7 O: H7 p9 N1 ]# Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% f4 V0 z+ i" H1 I2 Y& zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 g5 D- f) [' _* X: B" H
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
g2 e4 ~- v5 q7 J/ e$ X" N) E* {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 A' S; Z5 t* j1 v5 Y1 k; I
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 \; m. _, R' w3 ^6 I5 o
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) B8 a$ I& V b; O3 q" I; mresale price in February is evidence that past prices
- d8 v- z, e3 ?$ z/ C% u! y* Dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% g: t( _1 n$ I Z7 {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 N. V. `! o" V+ t& o
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% `6 c' L6 Q- s( e+ x9 m# M8 y7 y0 u
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
: S" P0 b. N8 z5 fleg down over 2009.2 g/ j' {6 x2 g- N6 q( ^
! `% |0 d3 B( _2 Q$ Q6 ~6 E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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