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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 F' c" E$ @: b0 g/ `) xWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' W1 F$ ?! q. c6 S4 v5 xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ s$ D8 E# T3 z" y7 G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) {1 N W( @3 Y' k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ S, l& M: V, _7 v! I* b
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 U& T( ?+ _4 b% i7 [: {7 `
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" H& l& P& p- r/ ?. a' gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 u; J K) m6 L, i) }2 k6 i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, t- M; X7 x; j' ~1 bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% J1 K( z* J. Y: T- `2 Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined5 ~+ c- |2 a- `: s1 s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 `6 X" A& P H! _* y3 jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, W$ J$ e& u+ p8 ~
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 F2 k1 _) p# u+ _' B# \' d9 G
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
P# s; z: ^7 L" m% z5 Q f30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 Z9 } \6 p. z) U, D2 G! G2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ u$ M) e1 E' ?9 S, E' I* EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 i- h, N( u; B' }
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: m) I! K- e( f+ @during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' Z3 m7 S: ~4 Q# F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& A* I, I& p% K2 Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" O [. }4 K) M, c! g/ F' w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging N% U& Q2 s" ~( t! I
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. k- R/ p& X6 q% Qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, a$ o/ h" t8 W# j. x6 Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 z7 z5 ^ |, b0 c ~1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ w$ c1 Q t# {5 X
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 Z4 c+ n% n1 k0 n( P0 x
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: }5 N4 o% ]. M4 b; V8 z% wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, O4 ]6 J2 ]- F' B2 g; ?* ^
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 X( ~$ T3 g# s9 ?5 eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 |( ?2 c' L9 Q0 P" |/ D0 F6 j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the! v$ s2 J; @5 f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# r4 [: y5 O3 @) D) T; i3 \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' j9 `. S/ x) v+ k9 B4 aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 K, }5 T$ J# Q* b% @. ~rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 b9 `+ q8 f. [1 m2 z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
I* P p1 W$ L+ u/ y, Lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic. `2 i( ?0 }+ L, @6 c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) V2 z7 t9 q$ l, k j5 ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% Z- U+ n7 R. s, i& h: w
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) B4 Q# _4 l) Z8 z; L# D/ uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) ]1 l" j& l7 }. A) @: O
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. A' W! x1 h: e2 [ @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 T$ V4 `7 ~3 t2 zThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 S. A; S& h6 a# h9 `& v3 J
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# j; a- U& m0 a0 T
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" |/ I: w3 g4 B0 [5 r
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 V$ Z# u1 e4 c, @+ Z5 m9 x0 w" Zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" l1 }2 [6 u1 ]" X0 j7 H+ yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 W( ~! A5 J3 Z1 ]" ^8 ]9 Y
leg down over 2009.
; T- Y5 ]2 T8 {8 |0 ~7 F5 _4 B
7 g0 f- Z4 C( y, O3 n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
