ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.

TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.

The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

* L0 Q; c( v! A5 ~$ ?5 MNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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7 k: ]& a2 s4 G5 v0 S( o"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.

2 X4 n4 ]! D) F7 g' c0 A) X+ VTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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' U9 d" d& b' phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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5 b1 e6 r1 ]: t* V3 O' L3 N: aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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6 F6 n4 l  k* o1 ?/ m" u[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
% h+ ]9 K# G, f* Z) P7 O' h. n跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! a  i: o5 O' A很多人都回学校深造去了
# ?& `( s" E+ d4 B* S嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 Z3 n3 E* P- E: N/ j1 Z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& F" }$ F4 o& i8 mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* j. Q2 i. L: w0 K% p3 efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
  X! h( D# _+ [. d$ u( r5 Xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ f7 e2 T3 s! M$ u% Jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ J' w/ @9 W  \' f" s, z& ?& V2 Bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 A, I6 r2 Q* C, `4 Z9 W' ~' dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 _8 U' O2 V( l# r2 Tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- j4 _$ \0 R4 `, n) Xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
* L* y) u8 ?+ x2 ?2 {30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 s6 N3 f. G! T- ]( P2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 J% @# U4 L8 y1 ~% S# ~Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 C. u8 u/ R& f' e2 H! E, Rclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 ~( w9 r8 d1 O9 |( E/ Lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( g/ f+ Y( @7 F, f! Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, Z9 l, |7 P0 p2 M) |unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ T; a3 @1 [1 gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ q! c# U; }# e' Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ |$ ?( ^6 W2 G. f6 mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 o) B, ^+ Y6 s0 H3 r4 rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 z: q1 P# U* U& j/ z" o! G1 EThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 S, a9 K- `7 w+ }; D4 Xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% t" F" W& b( D1 ]Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& x; ?. @! @" d8 |1 `- I  W5 V% H+ Qhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 c  a4 N& d; \2 k! Zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 e( u& d1 I% t) k" z" ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! {8 w; S0 ~9 R+ }' Y6 E: ndeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 ]+ g4 c5 N, q- V# U7 tAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* e! L2 t/ u7 L; a2 y' f8 Vleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: R. V. o8 u3 s3 AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing