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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ w- S* M8 e1 A4 I8 e
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' m% F2 P- `! u) @9 t
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton [# `$ M% h' x8 ~+ i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 \7 e; N' Y4 t, r/ ~
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 k7 T3 }9 x& O& Wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 z! A1 l5 j* V7 A' |$ V- w6 _
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ H: y4 a/ f( ~2 @. Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' \# C, J1 ?7 u) S. Q+ H( L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* U; X& E- P5 @: apace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 `, `% ^9 [9 J9 L; S+ o" Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# a% n1 p- r& G0 \5 x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 o$ w- w: N" n' f' Sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- X2 t* q9 {0 k6 o. r
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 h6 J# `5 P9 `5 G! f9 z8 }/ Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ f1 \. j$ q1 }4 O/ y4 _, n0 d8 S30,000 new households will form in the province during
" m' _4 s4 f# z1 O+ H% T* I2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) C, y+ c; N6 fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 X$ F% K7 |& F* \homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
I, y# J/ r3 r* g& r, Eduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; i) y9 f# Z+ ^3 |has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) G- D. ?: |* N1 E# ^. n
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 A% ?& c9 Z' A4 n S+ ~
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 y$ c, b* F& d5 Z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ o8 j% F D; h6 T2 C5 A
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 x/ {2 J0 H1 K9 \% M6 a9 i
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ S# X8 X+ t: p; P9 A k6 d, i% q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" W3 q' @# E( Q, b9 L; |sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# p2 W. f" I. h* j* a1 `
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in" V: ~8 g2 l0 g! H S
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 m: [* h, G: A+ j: U1 E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; B& T8 I$ s& g3 r. s. d+ bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
: l; g1 d" O$ Q' L$ Rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ G" u* s/ N. o" V$ P }$ `0 }4 d u
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 A7 B2 ], ^* o) I/ d6 emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 Y9 L) L4 K- h- k
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 R; j7 s* x$ w# V% Yrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- {9 h3 f A$ h% h
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 C) u7 v5 `9 }* a; A2 |. Y( uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& ~/ V$ `9 {# }( k7 f! V; m
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( o% H% X/ E8 S2 I( l( n. {% Q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
( b* H+ ~# Q) K+ a4 C& arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 E. V4 g L( _7 \2 d
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
U+ @% s$ _% |' }' z0 E" L4 \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 G l) { {+ W% K4 R
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 j" C G w# }" C b. I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 o- z7 i( z( ]3 xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 P) n# m( j8 m8 ^7 J3 iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- f: H; E, W* R! |9 U& @4 U% @homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. S4 ]5 Y: L: L9 Bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# Q7 W5 v9 V" o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: G/ }0 p/ T, u) t1 S7 R
leg down over 2009.+ y9 f1 u/ K% G4 n1 c
4 E/ U0 ?; n* a; {* i3 j! v
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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