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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 `6 M( h* Y, L( g
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 6 z7 T! {$ v" x6 b. b
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. % \' ~9 |* ]% x8 X7 I# T& T2 b

5 K+ e" D8 l, [9 @) b' INow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller., [; j7 A. A# i- ?, j0 ]8 f$ y

/ k5 _2 N4 d* N' q" K! ]TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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: D/ @$ l. W0 `. ]+ P"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. $ u! w: s; y+ Q4 X& {
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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; Q$ w5 F9 Q- C1 SMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ' f2 _/ S4 c6 V" ^  P

$ n. X+ w* O/ A+ shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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; {' c+ m$ d( V( J+ A5 X1 j# ~TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。6 r1 J  P8 j) }5 s2 T# j3 p4 q
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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" `+ y5 O' c0 O* \+ @[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 " s4 e" {2 h4 J4 x
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了+ O- A4 e8 w! k# l+ {+ Y7 t
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
% v# n- l9 K6 Q% F: y' gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& {; z6 C, G0 U/ {& ~, c
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 \6 T8 {6 B1 c) o! d
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 {! p; v- @  j( i+ l' A; o2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 P" K$ k9 T1 o: S% L# i
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ N9 ^# [- A& q% \4 q, V+ i/ L& d" bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 U0 o1 \0 X0 m5 \7 I
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 z9 J( s2 l, E# ^$ g
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ l+ R( p) f3 @- V9 D8 g9 a1 ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ B4 m+ ?. _& j, m* S3 g$ ~precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 j7 e' Y+ z& l2 H5 W8 [/ Qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! x* R+ J0 D) h: G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" W3 I2 f7 W# u, t- eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) L; {* C; q! k7 L+ R3 _
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around% ?& j* O, d" Z8 e
30,000 new households will form in the province during. C/ \  ?# D0 S4 X  {" S( a
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 i' B/ l3 p2 \0 L8 m0 J3 Q5 G( B/ YEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 c0 _) ]3 F& Z; w, Shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; I/ q2 t( a' N5 }4 vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 B! Y! L  n3 ?( \# D: B& ~has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 |+ P& ~3 w$ O9 f% p3 C& l8 g1 uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 a! R0 Y- Y* x+ o( kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 u; d8 |6 M; x% N4 s4 i( `
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# l8 W& I* G" q9 }. G# ^( G' I4 k
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; r) d  o% B, A% V
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) k7 V, R8 T! D, X, {" b$ i2 q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a1 `. N) e2 g9 i( P- g& I$ @* q4 N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! q6 e" P* g0 P6 x' ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 Q% x! w1 r- i5 U. t, ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 G1 `' j5 f1 {. p
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ J" Y* x6 g# K' z1 R5 tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 E0 z% S6 o7 R: d
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- i2 t* l& L" O, L% E
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 p- t3 o) d6 [, ]( Y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- n/ O7 K  f- i9 l: Lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: a3 l. h6 ]& T: s/ Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! D8 M, F0 X' K! g4 g: t0 R" yThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& y) |5 u- w+ R4 `: M& K: `% K1 X! Vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 R% h$ {: V( R! l
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! Q8 i& C. f3 {$ s3 E6 phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( B# B. L& }- L2 ]: L2 }
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ Q( k9 j: M' h, s) R& b- l( Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even! B/ h" [7 h; `7 K0 M: h% X
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# {6 @$ O  }6 h) a8 L% Ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( [, W/ q7 z7 u0 a( N% jThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 U9 r  e3 d' P. }- cresale price in February is evidence that past prices  t4 [: [! _& s2 }# Z  S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
5 V* t0 ^$ @# L. D0 e& [. khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: f$ \6 b5 x. [0 h9 N3 |
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 Q# u2 Z3 ]: C' p! T7 T& D  f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ n7 {' F( f% F" U. O, @7 H' cleg down over 2009.
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* ?- g; Y" w( s4 q& X+ A/ a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& E) D  \/ D! F- n4 @Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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8 N& X- e( Z* p. C# w3 r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. # I3 k* F( e/ t3 p6 E3 [/ X, U( B
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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! Z; t8 l0 x. t% E3 Qhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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9 g# g. V1 C% P- T[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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