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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
8 c6 `6 i6 X. Z/ y' T+ [* _1 I& |Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 c' A" K8 n( C4 p; E7 l D
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 }1 \0 b2 a4 iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 p3 w4 r/ f% A) \2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 N( W: N% |$ b9 R, Z* o p
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 l4 b* H' B" _! f0 L+ q* r9 e3 u
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) x! T) N+ I8 G; L% { {* L
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- m0 ?4 B8 ^5 f7 a @1 o; Amay even cease completely during 2009. The previous& V9 _, g& E+ H
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 R, }, ~7 E. c2 ?precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined, m' N# ~2 I: j: J
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% t2 {& s/ s+ ]/ S$ jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 r! B: |: h' J. |) E6 p; \9 S5 syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- v( n- Q$ J) f; Z' A5 E! r; lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 t% f& k. p Y0 Z0 E) i
30,000 new households will form in the province during/ H# ^$ T. I" Q+ o' @8 [! ~! B. Y/ f
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ ^' N4 b( i( k1 v9 EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: V3 m' K+ y$ t. @& A- khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
V+ p6 e2 V- \, \, t+ j4 |during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 P* `# g c/ t& B& [+ s
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- h) @; s0 d; O: ?; w4 N, n) v
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 s) N% z p" n% d: U! @+ Z6 T& _
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 \! y% c7 Y6 P- \5 k I9 Asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories6 E0 b# S! ]$ t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ F) }0 @ @/ I4 p* I6 t
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of3 z" Q } I8 Y5 ?, o/ ]
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& U! x$ U& y3 G$ l' bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 ^2 F+ p2 T& M# Q* z. u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; V8 c; t/ L6 T, W5 l2 F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 m. g1 H* O* ]" ] M) |. J- {unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% f$ `# J! ?, H) I" @' u3 eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 }, O! p8 D2 K$ Z6 P
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' Y s3 V, ]% m* ^9 A
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 w4 N2 E4 D8 U
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 S; m" {/ K2 mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled( |$ e7 c# R [/ k/ d" [/ e
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ P5 q1 |4 ?; R: Z: f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 K: U% K% L8 k% `7 e# M. T) |6 uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 w& S; v1 h4 a, c. _- o
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ b2 ^. H4 g) E( f! Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% [& Y3 O8 I. F& A
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 y8 `7 Z' l) J+ eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* t" Z4 k1 d' [4 Tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 u- d- Y' ?9 l1 w2 m0 }6 W" j! {
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ g# d0 J/ I/ A9 B* b' w1 Z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* t% H* I% w; A! i& k' r$ O0 ^6 hresale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 u! o, \! K; ~2 oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 H7 ?0 G; ?5 X9 h! |: j" f
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% R& D: ^: h# a, V7 C) p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; f2 T+ K- J; CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' `& ]4 n8 {- d6 H( Dleg down over 2009.1 u5 B- o6 {2 k4 m, r: W8 ]
: r1 d' z* U+ ]+ Q# ~$ [" k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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