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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 R# ]* h" u/ Y" C* s) ^2 yWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
! ^! Z# O$ B$ E! _5 S7 t9 d s! Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% O7 j# A3 j$ M. G7 g
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, c0 U/ X* Q' C& g% U- ^3 P9 `) k
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ `4 V7 ?3 h! x) R! e
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. ?) n* k) {3 Q
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, Y) v! Q+ F- R! K, e; A; G: a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; l0 n9 Y1 ?) Z7 R0 wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous: m( Q9 Z5 m, ~
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' q5 ?) q+ `! j$ Nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 }* k' u7 p' q0 dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 M, F) x; K, \1 A& v8 X3 \7 I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 w1 I% F/ `& M, G% W) g3 Y& u
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* L) x8 C- K2 Y- }9 W7 u/ G" }
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 c$ f1 o& W; Y8 L- `- f
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, ?! `; w1 {% I% A2 ?6 ?2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# ~- i- e; \* O$ X$ NEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 b/ ^. a, \4 S3 }6 c$ R
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
Q: ^$ i& a) `) N" ]6 M$ Vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, U3 M" y) T |" x3 a/ h2 }has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: H2 `' L6 n5 h; j6 y. f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) S, t5 e# \1 D$ ^' }5 J" rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& a8 ]' \( O2 s# Ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories6 i0 ^6 b$ ?2 ^3 @* E9 P. ^: V( V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 j& A; R! H2 s8 B3 } M& x
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% H4 o/ Z* D \/ I; `2 Q3 M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 ~: e- \" O0 W+ wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, h6 `- M @) o% b/ ^1 w0 \9 f, D* {: a. L
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" C, O" @, X9 H$ e4 t+ Utwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; [+ F5 u/ v+ z: z& {unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 O4 w2 }: K; i( Z: i% I
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! _- {4 l7 O# g5 u9 B7 Q, z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 E6 p f/ G/ h$ m
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 E3 ~& g. o& P. Z# E
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. d; T1 n' N$ m7 ^8 x- c3 W$ L+ J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( q, ?7 `0 \6 V& A: f. Mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 k5 x( M1 |8 a1 u2 VThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 y) b. ]; X2 Bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 O7 \8 y' f0 U* u5 J/ G; z" K
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan |4 r/ Q- ?& F, W' r. J( r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 w; N1 k @8 X! ~. W
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 [5 G) |- u* \# jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- s2 ?2 J. z, R. \1 Z* a1 ]! {; _* X/ N2 \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; e$ `! f6 t; i) N
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 }5 y6 t: F/ |6 K
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) d% E/ r2 G+ |- G5 |" J* vresale price in February is evidence that past prices
- a: I ~ h t& o& hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& l8 A/ X `- T0 _0 U; O- s; K- Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 y1 I+ v/ }1 e Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 D( s. g- B ~3 Y' UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; D* Y! u$ \: j' y/ z- ileg down over 2009.$ i* j! g5 x% J* C
, D" u; a% p! F2 E
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 x m0 z& R5 y
