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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
2 p& i# I6 C0 `9 X: ^, l# D" h8 F6 nWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 F* J* S. l' ?" x; G. {" O/ b- Cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 ]( D0 S) V& e4 ], F" jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& L9 l; I* V a) ?& Y2 v5 t- ?2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 l+ Q4 L+ X$ @& i. X/ qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; q1 b' V ^+ }' U' {
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ ?" \# c2 `5 k# y0 P
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: m) ~+ i0 i% B
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' F# ~0 t% T# q. S0 K+ Zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 I: G4 i% }/ ~( h# C6 |; N1 Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" ~. _0 ?/ H3 J) @" _. x& Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& u& a6 Y9 f. H# \* T" |prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 z9 N' \. S$ Eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,0 t' ^0 P( o ~+ k; B7 @6 z6 e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 X4 z4 H- S4 m! [3 L* q
30,000 new households will form in the province during" t3 {0 o# W g
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 F9 t7 h6 Y: v' w
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s h. \6 X: |# }
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 p( Y8 I* x- G1 a$ W( N/ t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
1 L) L& B7 i2 j6 B0 h5 Z5 e8 lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; R6 `+ o5 P/ Y) xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 z; F. N3 O8 g9 Q) }" J
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, r) S! a) d# n2 }1 L) _sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 _7 J% }9 Y H5 m3 `9 S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 n# ]8 h$ D( R4 L+ e+ c9 {/ K' R
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# y! F8 o6 o, j8 W8 g6 n. I
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: O% S. S9 k, F' ]8 Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 P( ^ i4 E+ i/ Q! v! w+ q" ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 ~5 }" p! t( m( G
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. f/ g0 q' z/ c" y. H2 yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. S3 r4 y+ O8 J$ {% U5 G
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: {7 O; ^' \* [0 [- h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ Y ]1 _$ J2 q8 i/ A8 J
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s k' f/ M9 E# d# i- Y2 T
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- L' k. J& G, S" E3 K# a
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- S$ e/ s6 R1 K) a" O; @ r1 Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 ~+ T+ J, R! A2 G O% _The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 y' u/ { r9 @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 `: B+ j, ^% F0 g
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 f4 D6 H9 Z) Z% l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# }1 E; G! C5 W4 ]9 j0 q% ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' c+ w e I0 m# yprices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 P% P R+ K, |+ \
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 C) K8 N4 |' T6 ?" T) b0 S3 j, ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, I0 L5 d6 |# |% E' _9 Q2 d4 XThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* [' O0 U6 \6 d1 S! Vresale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ C0 a9 q% E8 A7 a$ _exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( ~' U) o! k$ w3 r* s$ j% Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& K/ l, L" J" |0 J7 F2 l8 `- c& l% Ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% G, L2 [7 h' J: r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) O* z: L6 d8 S2 B. p, y- q# T
leg down over 2009.
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; a! ?$ U( a1 a. X) X9 \; q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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