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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( c) p4 }5 p% u; u4 T7 o8 `$ m
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 2 W$ n. q- G/ X2 N6 G
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 1 m1 B9 n3 v, z1 f1 ~, _
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 O9 x. V' ?( R8 b9 T9 l+ F

3 _3 E* H6 L0 f+ s1 k' F, _Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' f8 ~- a& z3 D8 N1 Y) T

( `  [7 {! N' d! e9 Y* eTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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4 D! |$ u6 a7 f8 n"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. / G! H" i  M" m' B  ]8 g9 z
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. . R8 S2 `7 z$ w( E: {

/ g. S, j+ U& R9 P5 whttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. j) t+ h( n8 W3 a
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
$ N; |" x2 `& t7 \& Y# L! L 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
8 H3 t0 v" m! N) W3 x跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
% \, V: f8 T' ^# m) `嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta5 v; Q% \! ^$ j' X9 ~+ A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( g: T9 t0 a: a4 A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" u- L2 H, Z# yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' }/ i$ j- n6 A5 U, p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( W6 n) X- w2 i8 u/ Y4 N7 K
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided% V, O0 U5 E4 I9 Z2 n( C8 J
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- s5 O' Z! |1 S7 `5 z. B' e0 J
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ U, I, [, N) j/ P6 R$ S  ]/ ~3 C
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* p4 f; F4 C7 Y3 hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed  X" E& F) @$ ~' w9 ~
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' n* W5 h4 X' o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 p9 r) |0 S& I. }9 [# P+ M
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 s4 [/ a* y, K( E7 Iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 M( ~% s: _  ^' T6 ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 j* @, V" T: T: q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
# p. D% U( S- s; \3 @# k2 b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. w2 X- K1 q; t7 I/ r3 A' z  p2 o
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ Y7 O% I" I  x" ~
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 e+ |$ K% v) S; O; _+ Yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% _( ~3 G7 U- E. |9 u/ U! ^4 ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# s: U) g* w9 U! g1 X3 N+ |2 m% j
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ `; Y- j3 ?8 q6 e4 }2 ^5 }
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- t* A8 A( i- i, O
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 P' J& U1 @7 kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) c* a/ l1 u, ?2 }9 {5 b
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 r5 Z# \* m  y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ I0 U: W8 j) T3 g, ]* P) X2 c
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ p& T" K, `1 }( T7 L: Lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in: D( ^; C# F) M% m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! m5 q. k. x1 v, u7 T" f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; B! s3 C) o1 J- y: |$ ?5 l
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" B- W; q2 X( vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ o6 ^% H% T* l0 a3 d# Z! A9 Q' qresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 }2 n: G, A5 p4 v' b& Y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% O) |, K; B2 qof new singles, and, with demand having cooled7 ]' s1 ]' ~2 i. m& Y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: p0 m: D7 V- n0 y& I  @" z' n
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s  O7 P1 a" r0 T3 s0 j/ Q, m& ~! W
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 n1 e9 u9 m; M5 K* t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan0 S: S; z6 T* Z' r; @+ |" P0 f
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ d" O1 |# D; b" g" E( c. L( e+ B* v
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 X" g1 f% o  O2 W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 P5 s8 l9 _8 R6 T# _; [- J5 m4 F3 vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, k5 H9 R- O3 bon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
  i' r6 d- r* l9 Q) _2 I/ rThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 H/ |" }; w1 w  u- [resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 R+ T0 n( q4 E, ?3 z7 I9 Dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) |- X2 W$ {" j# C& ^/ Y, R
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 o- }1 t" L5 W! ]
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* K) d) \+ L) x0 ~9 D( TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 ~$ J0 |1 x2 L' }leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,9 }1 o1 E1 o* Q4 J$ m5 V
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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  r5 E! i0 f7 O$ w/ A3 N$ C$ @+ T, C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
/ K, W4 T7 b/ r& a翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 `' H5 A' Z: R9 y" B

' }) e5 S! v) H2 y' F- V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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