埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2047|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% d2 l  A/ c$ M# R: I4 p
' M1 \- Z, ?- `  G! k5 r
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
" H1 F5 c4 A' E& o* ?
6 U$ ^2 t0 G" g5 S! C5 Q$ ~The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. - s8 b* g' ?; u7 A) k5 \+ X7 k
9 x. F) B: [& v7 v# V) K( X
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. + d$ R8 d6 @) f" |4 |* z/ m, P

% j! ^0 z* M6 i" m( f& b& HNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller., ^! H4 d2 ^5 b6 E
3 e8 M0 P" _3 j# z4 [
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.. r9 v  C+ ^# n% `; F& M
8 P" M% q4 I5 I: R
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
. _9 Z$ a3 @/ p" d9 A) H4 Z
( E3 m. Q1 h/ |TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.! b9 Q/ K* P/ A  A; l
& p6 E/ j3 H  u5 o6 C, d
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
6 D( y: R0 ]8 o: w; p# {8 ?+ E4 o! c. P: P
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
. a8 b3 T) l5 _  \
$ K1 O# A9 }$ f) E2 `
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
" A$ ~6 @9 H3 Y8 c: A
0 `1 \" u5 _' T2 y/ f+ D$ z[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% D5 ^2 p! ~; m 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
' p7 N0 i4 A% r% }9 X
6 H2 L/ C% ?/ O& s1 I6 Y9 Q[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- q. k6 d+ `) A0 M& {6 t9 i3 T9 i跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: s. P) Q1 c  z+ K& m( s/ S很多人都回学校深造去了
, g! z9 ?5 |. y  C  `. n+ x: v5 A! P嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta3 L7 B) Z. M3 t  K% _. {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 T1 |3 K- t# c" M# K* P% Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 x# P4 X, {0 Z5 J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 I7 u3 T. f/ Y+ j' }0 F6 c2 n: `& ~
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- E  H% z. x4 gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. Z4 J2 O/ p2 ?
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 S1 `, W. i: |. v9 z. U
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 f& E. }6 T, K* v1 c1 g, ]1 r2 fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous. q! G# b6 L) `7 P, l
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 l7 Z' Q7 q4 J$ B6 c
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% h7 k! t* c0 @
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year( v! G) Q* `1 `: E% p/ B
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' H8 G- A& i: d4 ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,  S+ m5 Q' {+ I0 Q0 p7 g
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 q8 n3 W  E! {/ q5 x: a5 f
30,000 new households will form in the province during6 L/ N% x7 L1 U2 A, d
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. \: c$ |' d7 i$ a* |) CEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% p% X  [0 W' ^% u
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%  g/ l4 ?& v% v* B6 l5 h: p4 `
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# v- @+ c* B; d9 g( z& ^  l) a2 c( [" ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, v2 S- u' D; e4 Y4 |. x9 Y- {households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 A' `0 M4 x' c- uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ g" G; }/ ~4 D, b' e& F. \. b) \
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- c" H* B; z" @/ q9 M
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, }+ Y) m0 `! l% fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( {* E! f/ b! D; ]
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! C; {9 x) L+ N2 b& a; k4 ~( Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
2 U5 I( g1 `' A( x  W) J4 m+ nbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 W5 \) o5 K4 Z( \5 s4 vtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 e8 q* J! K, I. d. l, E% ^7 b( ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' ^7 }6 u8 c9 e8 T' L9 d% N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* }6 Q- E) j8 j$ i% @9 ^  q/ S
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- V- O, @# c+ T) {- Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; l" U8 ?# m: D+ {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ d4 f$ ]' i$ N$ s4 h2 bof new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 @+ @- K9 x  R. Z7 ~  F% T) b2 B
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! t* X7 Z6 b8 e: J; u; D) a; cThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 M2 {( @' Y- J5 Y+ E* T9 f. ~boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
( ]# @" y& |6 e% ]- gAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan: X# x  J/ f6 ?% b* W
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 r% y0 c7 w/ wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 G3 A$ Z" `, I% ]* E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' L* Y6 U% b5 ?6 j9 ?& W3 ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 ]4 R; @6 u% r1 h2 K7 A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# G& K2 ~& P& WThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 _4 Y% J1 j% _- f. q$ Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices
4 ~, r( u9 `* Q  C; Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 R: w0 [( ?: \5 g( v! k& O# @+ [/ X5 F
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# ^' m! ^1 D; W- k$ Tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,! _2 \8 Z; {. o! R3 `' t8 f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 D# N8 q8 x4 E
leg down over 2009.0 ?& z' r: U& Y* O* t" b

+ }9 }2 E2 V2 x4 m8 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 o, ?& H" n* Y- v* Z. B9 n( f% B
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
" ~! Z+ H7 [3 r" X" v
0 [% G- w4 [4 a( V' N( p
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' B: c  U) ?* c4 _翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
% ^  Q: W  e+ }, d( h% ]8 p% e, g! r
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 I- @( s1 n# w1 ]- o; l; N2 i
* b# k4 ]( F! ^; Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-2 22:21 , Processed in 0.121168 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表