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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
( H$ x+ B% a2 O& HWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# J) K% }* G D" W8 }3 A
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( V; I3 e# D0 X0 {( kare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 K4 x1 v( }8 S# K
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- M, v2 K- _9 W1 x: g. Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% j- s. b4 K1 _- _2 ~. L9 Z" ^9 P# |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 G: _; P: W: | B8 {6 i7 z2 S) }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 I! ^$ e1 ^: i7 i+ s& Hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ C( b% w" K$ ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
F% I% f. H/ r* K7 ?precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& E1 Z i# b2 c6 |+ W2 l0 X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year4 S9 b8 K; N8 ^4 q* {3 `
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* R+ h$ ^/ i/ O7 U! L% D1 k/ Jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ d8 y4 W6 y. jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! n- ^7 x8 F& E) Q A% j
30,000 new households will form in the province during
( P8 i2 f( @- W% b. G4 z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 c) Z% J# C; j: I7 M% |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ y% M: n5 J+ o; J
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 j) {$ }5 z( v; r8 [1 E. nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 {+ T p, h/ h- P' v( U& rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% e3 m% ]3 u B! Qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* J) r5 w; I7 {. l$ e* p# }( F+ j% S
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. q5 ^+ w9 e5 |" f1 B9 Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. z3 z! J: m4 [1 }0 G: Q. _4 x
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! p" Z9 u. Z3 [& G1 Q4 t* R$ P) Y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# R+ E. I* n0 C$ \" }' C, r, x
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 a: R5 w! y; U' y4 }
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
[9 |* N w5 Kbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
M' \+ j, l T0 L" etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* {' b% k4 t2 l) ?unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 E3 u5 q' {8 O5 F# }: N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 x7 g9 O# k! S) w3 j0 L1 h- U
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% J9 O4 b/ R5 D$ p J2 a
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ ?4 U1 a7 t$ v W2 U1 P0 O1 I
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
0 ^, N b) M/ n3 y) L9 X& t, xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 J; L: i- W( B- u$ l: w2 \4 P
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, L+ y/ f9 u6 `6 d9 @% R7 xThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 Q% z" _6 R$ Q( H
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." ^9 N% g/ _. s$ n
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan# Q0 B' S4 Y3 G% M' I. q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ Y: G: }7 ^: p3 o9 h+ k6 M" g- k
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; m6 L6 Z8 P$ v Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 N5 \1 N( m- v' g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. U7 w4 M# m0 n: Qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 ^+ o# P# S" x8 }- m! a% Q6 uThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ i$ h J; t8 T' L9 r& m+ O$ l$ }
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' B+ R6 o4 R+ { g1 _6 V
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: T7 c; J7 v* r0 `. D0 nhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 P4 W# j9 Y8 A! O
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% S- p+ A3 u% M4 S& z: k- K' aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" P; E0 f9 z! f: X3 |* s
leg down over 2009.! }5 z$ a6 C2 J* h& M4 |$ I8 L
$ w/ z# J, n0 T0 ^
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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