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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics./ x) ~; N9 m4 J7 p& j
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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+ R9 @& g* H6 L! b$ sThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 Z8 m  K" Z1 B

7 N7 T1 j4 u& N# c9 Y* _Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
5 d, ^* Z0 ]* l- g+ _# y( \( z7 @" ^/ c( F
! r5 _4 m* I) ?# S1 O/ F5 oTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.% k+ @  P: ?. P; l' X  H

2 H* K9 a( T9 H5 h7 \"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 f; m" [( M8 B; u/ n5 t' S

  O* F* f0 r1 O3 F$ t& F7 a6 DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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: D+ l! X0 ?; w6 KMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , I" k+ F' q: C0 t7 F
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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. Y  T1 G  p, `- i0 H/ CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,0 N- v1 p% `$ q, c  a. K, v! d

0 F. O! i$ S$ h[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
2 W6 ^! J, |: s 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ' X3 E! z% w( h# V  D2 k
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

* A" c3 Y7 L- Y2 o# a. F' q( o/ F很多人都回学校深造去了
) `% |* n/ i* n% u/ o  t" R嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
8 _' m' @( |' bWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 }7 d8 I+ j# X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" ?+ o% m0 m: Y  _% f6 `
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" |; c: q1 m3 b( l; G8 c* }1 R' O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; c, a+ d6 G( ^9 ?6 z9 Vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided- @) T5 u8 @/ u3 s6 H
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 N) v4 F. U1 X9 `1 `; e+ V% kthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, [4 @8 T8 ]% P% p4 S+ i" `
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ Q" w! u7 G+ _! h) {
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 X; G  r! f4 i. O1 y  Tprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( _! O5 E; l5 T- q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 T6 f- @4 L) B0 l. [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 A$ g2 s, u* f  q8 {) X* ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 l1 D* W- r* jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, s- S! ?0 ^0 z% a
30,000 new households will form in the province during
' K3 ]1 M2 |( _3 {& M2 F5 R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% \  q4 Y8 d& u9 iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 ~$ ]8 Y" m+ O/ r, x$ a3 K+ P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ b( a  ]' i! r' R! l
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 s- A- G$ w3 x, |5 l* Rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 e6 I. I9 R$ _" U% B/ x
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ ], d2 c. n* @during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 y2 Z$ O  ?3 b  o: Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; b: R' O/ j- f0 @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! z5 t" A" g: m# j* vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
' k4 [4 E+ G8 G: w, |9 S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; u+ \- `2 z% g6 [) xsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 }6 Y) J" T) ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 |; H( @. `: L% C$ R; L$ @3 \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: {- B* ~; D" N: d/ W& vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' h6 G4 V( x( @9 s& Sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! U+ U4 }% n. |recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; B+ N& `4 M9 D* V- Y* Gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s0 K' I2 h2 C6 O
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 ^; {1 g# l: ?4 _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 |. }8 N0 r+ h3 \' R  Q3 Mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ m3 C! F& W0 o# |: i' \: R3 W2 c
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( ?! Y2 X' n$ j2 Vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- o# F5 D* M! ^8 I4 R3 u. J( P
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
' F, d, F, G0 Q, ~housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, Y! _7 r, x5 F- p9 O; T
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale; D2 ^, {1 x% r! d9 n3 V% [
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# M6 k/ |0 h" {& S3 c- h& g$ T4 f
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* C* @( Y+ x) Y$ c: ^
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) J! V7 X) |: g5 Q$ W2 Y9 x
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. _+ r. i) q9 y! o  [1 iresale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ F3 [- J4 ]9 v! j  K+ @exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. \8 i% N% g) W1 M: dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’  ?) }# H+ H. u  p! o* r0 |
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
0 Z( ]. [- F) y+ l7 V- `% CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; x. o. {5 \+ m) t, p" w* }
leg down over 2009.1 B* n8 w. G8 E4 V
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 @) k3 l8 ]' g  e# f; _' B2 V
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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: {; E: c6 Y- U# L& Z8 t5 [. Q; d4 a3 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- _2 E' Z0 d6 Y; X: F5 W, L翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子1 O: s3 Z+ K" [8 @8 Q

5 _+ K  ^# ], w' _+ ^, u7 Fhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 h+ c3 n6 s& O6 L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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