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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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! U, |6 `& A7 B5 ~+ V/ N9 Y0 N# {# t5 YThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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, E# F# a/ m6 y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ E( v' l1 c6 Z
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.+ f5 ?) e3 z% P% E

3 _- ?# U  b2 T& K" \# sTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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2 W$ [# F% N% u0 x, l$ q"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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" i( w) F) e' w" vTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.7 X% K( k1 q' R$ |+ K

9 t! |# t$ F" hMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 9 `! D* Q/ E4 x. |+ `7 S
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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  y: L3 c* v0 T' C3 LTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。/ V9 l8 G) {: S. q9 p! A1 J3 `
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。( J/ A% T3 w6 U& B9 Q

( R+ I5 L" u7 u[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ i/ h: F( v2 l/ a# W8 _/ {; z5 J跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

2 I" c3 c! B2 a" _很多人都回学校深造去了
! d. U; S0 S) n嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 \4 r8 T; i) ]) Z6 j" xWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. Z1 a* P' Z; t# ?* ]0 E2 B% p
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
/ a. L" X* ~+ F( Tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" h8 \; n$ E7 l7 s+ f2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" G0 {. V; F9 |7 Lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- p& i6 f" t& H, R0 Hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: A% \" y( I# t: Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 O& e% y/ X* v/ ?0 b% E$ c
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous% {: K. Q, {" Q& _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ T; L, o4 y7 bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 W: e2 ^; V' T; I# l/ Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 ~7 z/ O# {: o- n" n  h
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: L1 E* l8 a6 ]+ `, r& N( Lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 Q$ _7 X% `/ P8 Y& {- F+ D3 T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 C0 [3 c2 ~& z0 M
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 l6 U4 c) ~8 Z* o* \9 y6 U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# U' P9 W) G: t- M% A0 y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 A% `) h9 b6 _0 ?0 m
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 ~* Y, j" Y" @8 ^6 O+ L0 nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; |/ Q# L$ q/ k% r3 Q  D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* o2 s+ @/ s$ n; s. g, p: ^7 o/ ?households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' y0 g& M- |- xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. j/ R6 F8 F; N. T7 o$ u  Y! Msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( x3 @; [; B9 g1 Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# _% v* N: z0 b2 t; |0 H4 l. V$ H; K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; r4 ^4 K! ?8 w! x1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% W8 H, E6 G" r$ i/ w; zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 m" E; z) l) ~  r% jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! v5 O' _  P: H; Q1 Q' z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 @! Z  h/ V5 ?1 i2 |5 G7 }
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) Q/ N, j4 S8 J  X5 B
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 C, P% w$ e4 |9 lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 q, i4 o3 V$ N% W  _
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- m% |3 w% E; i, I; d, p
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 U  E( t0 ^* F# W8 f
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ d# m8 {( P9 z. {
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 }& o. S: \+ w# M- n) G  O
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 _9 Y+ h; ~9 Fboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ R) F5 o$ _* e- v# z/ F
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan9 ]/ b. ?2 B5 y) j9 v+ N
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced; P# g$ I4 a6 Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! X$ K+ W/ s4 s
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% F/ _! G. X# G% @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners7 G" y( b, g8 H2 ^
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 I) S; c8 @3 W0 K& n# aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. j; X; D2 g4 W4 g3 ^9 q% V. ~resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  `3 s, Z# b/ _' H, Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ O! ~6 g$ ^7 ?/ ?7 Thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 |/ g5 P; p# B. b% A+ K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 O8 V8 M  O: t# B. N8 \6 BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%5 {& x/ x, Q) Q+ V
leg down over 2009." S8 E& I! h% w9 y5 u; s

+ \" J4 O7 A2 r% l; G  `/ X/ E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," G; j! s, l( `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.   Y% Q' u; Q  L# r, @9 B
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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