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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
! n$ t* D k5 P& t+ \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: M+ n3 o6 @1 h5 r0 Q Z0 eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton- j4 w% P H8 B! J: `6 N7 {# y6 z# H
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& O0 [* Y7 v' r2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. q8 G0 P7 Y# [/ b3 _* @# g2 @formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! l& a; c( q5 O# X4 Pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 H) `% w% @2 v2 T5 p; i
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 G* U4 h7 P0 ]2 \may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 D' m E4 f: m
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 V" b, S' C2 b: n
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 I2 ?" H" c, d/ O0 eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) C0 F1 j6 v5 k; M$ w& }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' g4 [- A' `, V' v/ `& _9 Y2 T j2 R+ Ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# o; A5 ?4 N+ C! ~
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' C+ Q/ s8 N8 A
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 O7 z& s/ x0 c# n# J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 z# A# g* q [
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 E4 M! {+ Q2 h' Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, f! m8 o& |; v, ]7 `during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- ~) _/ H3 m/ a$ u" u* {3 z- Ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( o6 Y* F# Y9 k' m) z' _: Whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 t- k, X2 Q2 b$ d+ q
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 p1 K6 k: n5 g% N
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; ?2 `$ i1 R8 n. w, O5 J: _clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ p$ M- A- x; y7 w7 aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" |7 [' s$ x5 _& ^5 ~1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& M9 l* b/ d9 f" Lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive. q5 \5 f0 b* u0 Y) O/ x
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 ^, Q! \9 }4 x$ m! K0 o ~( btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 P. i" n8 Q/ l6 W$ w
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 V. T ^- ?% [7 l! P, W
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ N) e' N$ ^+ W$ _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the4 @3 M$ C3 I' B/ ]5 Y( D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! Y- c" }7 I( a, E* Q& l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
4 C# ?, x/ W& k2 `) _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
; |% [' q1 L. Z, ]& Nrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 J, c' c* ?+ C% x
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) ~ E: A9 W( k/ Y, ~, ?% Xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
/ m# d# S8 U5 pAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
, o! z8 f4 s% |( z8 |3 {* Fhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 @- `) } K/ Y: p- A- D
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% H& A/ |0 l# e5 A. z2 J
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& l, A& P9 O* pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ y( K' S6 I4 Y; ]6 P+ p( f
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% V' h9 U+ x) B {0 V. iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, F; F# P3 [5 q! u) b8 H
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' }2 u/ N; M9 c7 bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% e/ F) B {' a6 L) whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 Q+ j. O. j0 n- p& d Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 k& U; ~8 L; \1 @: D
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- u$ R) }+ X N7 Tleg down over 2009.
8 i- z* D/ h) }6 ?: i, m/ W6 ?2 o Q8 N4 [" c: L& A
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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