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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta$ D& [: q, |% I8 ~/ y& Y9 H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. h' m8 C J1 W- \( F$ S$ J* o
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton$ @& I1 Q5 y- A4 U
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 w, @% S, E0 N9 {
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 d* u( {4 D( Z" Q/ Y$ F
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided' ~: ^1 L+ s5 Z2 T+ C* N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 e) l0 i" T) B F% A2 `
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; P1 r. U* z9 g& V; p8 A7 w
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; L! y z( Q' R2 f% H9 {pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% f8 E# x: M$ ?- O7 N# u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& t7 R L" j( p J
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 u r) L. m: e" K; J9 W5 b3 T o
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 Y4 _2 C4 K" ?% M v: p5 ]& @0 r0 U
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
9 R& Y3 t8 x7 S$ Ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! ^: L3 C4 ]+ X m30,000 new households will form in the province during8 P8 }6 U- G! U: E) R0 _0 B
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ k, H# ^* H4 @) A# Y
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 `6 ?, X4 J6 g4 W+ [3 o5 ~# ahomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 t, C; N# }8 ^9 T3 dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
4 h2 l( z l( k8 [9 dhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ Q8 @# `3 J) e4 |* `: R$ q' P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( ^5 F( y8 m% G6 o( k" ]3 h) @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 _& m+ M& `$ U0 `, l: T
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
- @7 Z+ K. u uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is" g* i5 I4 P p) _
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 e- V9 [0 W% Y( b( n3 i0 @
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
- ?8 l" q4 }# s3 p: }) q3 m$ \sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* ]3 D3 F4 ^4 G I9 jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in6 F! @+ g1 t! m" q3 P( D
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( ^- n+ t9 ?+ P/ x$ xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 l: D& E( P; e5 K, Eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ p7 i7 J% O. {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 j- U9 B s9 H' x0 @& U- tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ O$ I# ~& d- }# o7 Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 ?# J0 r% @- [
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled) y7 N2 K- h' } q- W2 j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 ?, |3 f5 ~) |. T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 ~ L b+ a+ a9 Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 `+ d* }0 ?1 P0 i
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
" I2 c1 }# A, ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 R3 Z, p% d" U' K) I
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' S7 l. y C+ y, R5 `7 {prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* s) _7 J/ z6 h# A5 \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( b1 Q. B8 h: p& w: V7 Non average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 G) h0 e. `4 |2 BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average4 @! z0 i4 G& e- e7 N/ G# r
resale price in February is evidence that past prices$ X0 z) Q; H+ H1 R/ f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* {7 J9 Q/ ~: m* b$ zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( \% E( q$ _& v) a2 ]deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 U9 @; S% W W- @( b+ k. @0 RAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" g# g- S, [) A' J3 c) u% R9 b& ?leg down over 2009.0 S1 u- R8 L5 V3 N0 m
$ r1 i5 q# Y/ d1 Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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