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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 2 G: f3 q; A" L4 a! t

5 B! r, ?' ?+ H1 @- N2 DThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % }. ^4 q, {/ @  g

% C, I: c9 T; V; ^1 u. Q) j/ w"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 v9 t0 f' ]: P  ?
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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5 V  c7 {- R: a  [. _$ i"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , T: K4 ?& c7 z* W& d

" Y6 \% l6 ]- Z: y! OTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.$ r' x: Y+ L" y7 n- I6 I
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 0 o% i: D% U' a/ n

( _& Q! H+ f* L' nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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9 t0 U& _9 `1 ?4 S  yTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。+ N8 U7 Q( Z' {9 G' \% g$ d/ W* p
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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) g- e: F) w1 p$ K2 A[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 / H4 e* c0 P$ ?% p' Y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了4 j) k; x/ y# l8 ]
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta. u: M' K2 \6 N5 O
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
( v# N' C. c0 ~4 @, jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' L8 p( s2 v6 D- T8 h+ m6 X4 ^" @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- q4 u, ^! E/ _) }2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) E! {# b+ s+ \" U: o4 a# B6 E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# q* r/ @7 M2 S  qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# _2 m7 T; Q2 e6 ~+ e" Ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
; v6 Y( a0 z% k# p" f6 xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 w/ t9 B: }- {& S) F8 L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* t1 }% S! Z' W7 W* j
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. B/ q+ C; J8 I1 Q3 X, y& ^8 r% zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 y/ h8 a6 g: _* E2 S  O! _
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 O0 ?# o  E: C  Y6 B3 t# Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; {/ z5 K: [0 B+ Z3 y% m7 Q' Z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around6 y- X) m1 @0 _, U7 b
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 r) ~# e$ Q9 R) G  y9 _# M4 Y- r2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; i: E4 k8 l  w( T9 O. N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 }- t" r1 D, y1 y3 u
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ Y7 w& _- f+ O# M
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: Q! X/ G* R( Y( A+ jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- y! e. {( `0 W. U3 F
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* @, L. F6 ~: a. E! p* d
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 f* H1 B* h" o3 S; c8 ~5 Nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; c7 B: M  N7 Q* P( T. J! a+ H& ^
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 Q" h: e4 D! j. G( W- ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& t, H/ W9 K- ^+ z# y* ^5 i1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 t6 j- s1 p  y& g, ?
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: W+ y8 w% M% Q
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 [9 i' l) k( b7 F6 X: ]$ O: l  Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
% e4 q. ?; Y( d* qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 @* }' N- M( H: V1 m- L) _
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 P) r6 p* J2 Q. s& @1 r" J
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ |( \3 G9 r1 p! l2 xresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
( n6 A6 o3 l' \' i; F& v' Ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories, [. r( x/ a* p0 f* N0 Y2 ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 d1 u1 E" F3 Z- r; ]rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ u$ s5 p$ h( ^6 t* p# a0 HThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: d! J5 q; ^6 I6 H. k7 R# yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. A1 U0 H5 d; H0 S! q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- X5 _5 o2 W1 k9 _2 R# Khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
8 f# z) j8 o& A5 i4 Arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. k1 b, ?% Z1 T7 C& J
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even% W( W" P4 }1 |  k5 {( V
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: z. ^# P9 j+ o) Z) Kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; v5 c7 ^6 Y9 y1 k: R* r& W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 x  S; j- j  t- P& z- ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 e9 U5 Y; q% }1 U$ \exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  E# A6 G, ~9 a9 Y' ohomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
8 M3 o  w! t- Mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ x) z, f. z+ k, {1 v
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%7 V( `8 q' ]7 P+ K* p. P. [
leg down over 2009.3 T7 }$ F' t0 w, |: y& r5 T( [
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: V8 S6 m; R# f& q5 H
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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" ~1 B( {' }" T1 L& r0 b/ j5 _/ ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% E5 Z, Z* i# P) W翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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  d6 K9 Q" }! W0 ]7 a. _4 Ihttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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