埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1998|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
2 p% ~1 T+ T9 O6 v
, M3 h0 j" ~1 M3 n' v* xTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
7 Y/ S4 ~+ e2 ^7 \
* r9 }# b+ w) u/ VThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
4 U4 @6 g& d' D. V1 |3 C) f5 Y# ?1 y% Y
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
. N* r7 Z+ x- Z/ J; Q
; j& l# U+ G" q5 {Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
" h: `+ A0 V  ^4 A
" ]% O! e, l: Y  b/ ATD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.2 X# X1 p; t0 @; z; Y
& l0 c9 X' X/ H: j
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
) R/ m, h3 ]& H4 Q6 f- R) u
9 Q! F( S, n" \% M6 c2 bTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
7 D/ Y* v  A8 a' a% S; V) w6 i% Y! Y. Q' J8 u
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
( X( j7 j$ x% a4 n  S
0 w$ q$ O" k, a0 x) J% phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

0 B' p- f' d& I1 ^  p7 V/ n) u7 g2 t
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
  {: o3 ]% i1 x7 W1 Z" _( p
3 G& F" u- ~5 h- W' k8 S) [[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 o4 x6 B& H3 }& x# u: \ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
6 z) R. I% H* y3 y$ \' U
# k+ j2 n1 [7 K: ^[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ! r. j  c- k, @: W
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
" z1 C) E1 v0 q; v5 _, c: O
很多人都回学校深造去了
$ b: i2 E/ q  `嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta; N, k# a0 p, Y$ |0 {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) `+ r, d: W! kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& \/ y+ m% K$ ?, K) ^( q4 Iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 v' E, V1 T2 h5 G7 y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! Y7 G& s& |5 A# V% N! `  k) bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: x# V( F+ v$ Y% Kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 h, A1 |+ _% c9 B' t
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ q, O9 V+ m0 M3 ^' X% C. Imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' ?" }) m7 U$ S. K
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 Q, f8 x) H1 M$ A- pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" {. u) t% b1 b+ |* P; hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) e6 O* C6 ~) H& qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ o/ U( `4 g! W7 t
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ G8 c4 S/ u) L' Fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ T& O( i$ e) k3 d: |; x/ j30,000 new households will form in the province during
; O- O; r9 A/ f9 l0 Q0 ]2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 n% U: c6 c# V5 y+ E* oEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 H' v- l7 F' khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- Z6 ^* n& L8 J  H5 w2 q+ dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. c( D* H4 [# L( X! t* }* xhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& N  ]( U2 v2 h8 c/ ?! \6 R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 X1 I+ I# Z: d) ~
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' N6 ]. ^) }0 L. tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 f# Y+ d) F6 Y' Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 T6 S, o( ?2 Y% G7 v" P* A
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 r. n6 i. K& b4 [8 m3 A0 G2 o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 y" l) O# ~1 _8 K9 c
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive. u+ V+ C1 W" W7 r
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& k% G2 C1 S% h9 q/ z; b# E% Ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 t7 i5 Y# R' B) S) Hunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" u% |# C5 A* ?, ?# w8 @- o' zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( w7 U1 e1 L2 }( g9 |0 W
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& p# C/ g, e# k, S+ `. J, p
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) L3 W: |0 }' F% c5 v+ l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
- y  z( I1 ?' h0 b- P: I8 ]of new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 |) c0 X8 ], U) {9 y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ t( q; v$ G' z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 O4 I" \& ?4 F  w; n+ n: c  E
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.$ R; }+ }  ]! j7 v  ?
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan( j3 X8 j1 m3 V2 s( A: |
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- W: E$ b5 h' x# f3 R
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, j* W* a" U* C! {, H  U
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even0 z5 q) g2 s1 L3 e4 t! B7 g5 T
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* Y7 U0 y( W* L8 K* `on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( T9 R9 p% a) |6 x2 hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 F& C, n' d& b: w( B7 I/ S
resale price in February is evidence that past prices! _2 z" Y0 B6 r# o6 a; n
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: |$ \1 C9 u/ ~3 n# p
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 Z1 A/ |4 d: ~& L+ X/ c! F
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; R/ o6 j* Y" S( r: GAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 m0 i) i" [4 t% t5 yleg down over 2009.$ I- r! w  q& n) C8 w! e* h
6 q* ?: g; J- ^3 K
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. N- G3 n- v& Q8 \! _) JAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

: B1 ]1 i1 o% l7 u
3 Z, e# t2 V1 `/ e0 s% v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
$ {% _1 g9 _6 W) J! s5 \翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
, x+ w6 N. O& c. b+ s0 I- S9 ?
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
  P7 h6 E3 t' S# O5 }% @* _6 C
( F3 g0 O  r2 Y! W* T: l; O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-18 22:36 , Processed in 0.238733 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表