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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta# `& S, h% E2 x0 H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* K$ G" W2 ~& xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* F- q/ y9 N0 T0 y* B
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
* f7 x' g8 r1 C1 m$ \& i2 \$ G+ e; A t2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ _. P" O. f: q& n+ I H5 T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 B0 }' |/ {- H' L
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% p- W" f- w7 c2 }; G
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: T% a/ l( }; d5 Y1 _0 |2 G4 zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 H6 L6 j+ A; T, [! r
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# v* F; p' `2 n( r
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& j1 o# \; L h& ]- Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& c, `* k/ j1 e uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 N: [3 C" b1 F# b/ x/ `& t" v
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- s- W' \' B ehomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 O& ~, I6 J9 [30,000 new households will form in the province during9 ^- r9 L5 x3 u2 a/ k- |
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. P! r% ^& Q6 G, UEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) b7 I `7 S3 n6 |) Bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ v" ?" c$ [2 X1 _during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 s) j: B" r% R: Ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
. x& m& p7 N) S, L/ j' uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; ~7 X0 N2 F/ s# V. P6 \0 Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' `! L; r/ W6 t2 |: E' j5 S% g7 J$ csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 n! H* Z/ |- I& _. A6 U1 l, P( G1 [% p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 @) v" s& g1 M2 h* W
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ q% ~) _6 ]" ?3 ?: J& K
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& p! y! K3 D3 `! {+ isales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 n. X, H8 P# k. ebuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' Y6 d+ o. L }$ Htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in3 _9 X- }3 I5 Y; {6 H
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ e+ t1 r3 Z2 e: U( M0 S
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' ]; U5 J' B6 ~
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 H8 W# Y0 P5 o5 p
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 q& k. d+ D A. n
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 K b% `6 p+ _0 n n, ^of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# W7 o7 z: L+ q: @. @6 y7 _# jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
' O6 {" m5 |% |% i! R/ T+ z) aThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 J/ o9 F0 I2 u0 p% u8 J9 ^
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 ~& C9 D& w0 H9 k/ u- @1 E
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 f) g; W1 B0 E0 i3 Xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 F: } |+ ?* C" w3 t+ qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 M; p5 F, `% ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 b/ n7 l% o7 W1 i) ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ `, B# T9 j. ?6 Z! pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ X- b( ]; s, R
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ I9 m8 s+ b$ Y) _4 z! U% zresale price in February is evidence that past prices$ p6 D3 M* J" ^9 z2 g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 q$ R5 w) U, `# u" V0 D1 w
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) m- ^0 N; i' b) e/ ~3 T3 o
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& M" \ R$ e" Q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 D/ E1 t9 f7 Y. b; Yleg down over 2009., W$ r% B5 a$ T4 v/ {3 e8 M
9 ^. R$ ~; N8 a8 m& ?- m! F" A2 D
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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