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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta9 Z% @0 I( R( ?! ?
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ i. @& a# i% _( A: Z3 q+ _9 o! d
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. H+ m/ |3 [# @: R. Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, e9 X) m( M* ^0 M6 c2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: H& |2 x# l1 i- N5 I L* R
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" R7 r: k5 a$ ~. J) h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) t2 q( }0 b4 W3 _" l
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 t; _( b; e8 N$ N7 X: omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous" H4 `/ P; S2 H% c1 k6 I) n& k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* l L* P& a% m9 A; eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
d: i5 f! i4 k! d6 pto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year h# D" O' d5 b* ?+ u
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' d% a9 t, s" a5 f- B& t
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- E6 O( A4 `4 a. \$ E0 a) O& ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 S, W6 u6 l D4 O
30,000 new households will form in the province during" z+ ~2 X8 f" }7 a
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! s. [- L: |& p d; wEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: }9 J- C" [% S5 J- g+ B5 C0 c
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ L1 A7 G c1 u9 fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- S$ r4 r V: A* H1 C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 o1 y5 ]% Y7 D6 l1 p# J* X4 chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 p3 a# e9 ~9 R/ S. V; |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% u0 D" ~1 B! T9 z: G6 D f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 O2 _" L7 V: I7 ^+ kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% G& e4 y9 N7 e8 T- k6 \2 f
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# J* X' W- s, e
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- c# K7 q2 ^- }7 V0 ]- n
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
2 D! R" }2 E! O1 V% C2 ^5 U. k1 Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 q6 d. \$ e. Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) H! r( ^1 @: I$ ~
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 _1 K1 z) |2 Q' E/ T, L
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 A" [3 Q1 g8 Crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ v1 D1 d5 O; U7 sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 g+ }! X% H! e! R
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( t( r) k' k/ r9 \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 m4 B) }, S, i0 p& c1 `/ M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: e; l7 u9 E! @3 D' A4 j u
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ l, q U- f6 F0 i5 f9 }2 \$ zboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& V: [2 z$ U! A- j' oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan4 Z# R ]5 r+ R8 q5 u" z
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! ~# P0 e' q0 V6 C) |3 Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) j. ]" |6 V. i+ L
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; G* U; h6 f7 q* b* k5 sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! s& r) P) ?1 T: D& C
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.: \2 s5 _, D! U
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% M; q# b# V! X3 d8 a" C# Rresale price in February is evidence that past prices( z: E$ n% r5 z, I( i3 g! @0 [
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 X' K9 \$ w% k+ d7 i- Y8 H
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 F& E' _# q/ x, ~8 d/ X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories, X$ x0 \ s( y( O2 E. C
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ S {' q, D9 v7 f5 X
leg down over 2009.
; p% `8 m C2 `3 Y2 x! A u. D0 ~3 j% L, u% K
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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