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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.* X6 ?+ q6 ^8 H* ^
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 6 M2 V/ }: P3 B" M' d; G
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; ^3 d) C! u  n2 Q) i: T2 z* J

( v, P7 w& U6 L/ W2 ZTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ V7 u3 k1 c3 R4 M
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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% Y& H9 b  ]! N( Ohttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。3 R; U6 F& j- P1 ^2 |
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 i% _# J! {) Y" k8 E! ~  S3 I跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
- M) c2 [5 g! a2 s4 x; K嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
( Y$ S* i$ h3 [& z6 C3 b' M6 s5 ^$ C) t% {Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; B/ }/ E' k2 L% w5 ]- H1 o6 {boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ D8 u& }  X3 }3 b! bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 t+ [% o6 N+ B: ]; P0 l& {) L
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 |  M6 E, z7 oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: w- k/ @! U  a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; T/ v  |) K6 A& Pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 p3 w" @! Y) V  N
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 D, W5 F& o( K' a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 G- F* {* L' u3 ^precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ y, n0 v4 m7 u0 \$ f2 {2 Y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 t3 m% \3 @, V' U' E* K# yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* N( h( m; g4 d0 \
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( A& }2 w; O3 L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 ]) [  B! _8 _  Z: g+ ?: G$ `30,000 new households will form in the province during( n% C+ u$ a/ m2 M
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# x/ w' u5 ~! u9 ^( |# y5 V- tEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) V6 u- s) y: J* P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( y" E5 r- \# ^0 a9 i+ B) l
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ L5 q2 L* ~1 O% W) i; Z+ H0 X+ ~: M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" x2 V: Z! r6 U$ z: Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
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clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; F- X8 g9 F/ o: b3 X2 z8 j; o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of2 \, ?( M' ^1 F0 }8 a9 x
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 ]( W+ M. }0 v+ l0 n' s/ W. y* Msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 m9 c) Q3 q$ Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 X  T6 ^& D0 [$ M$ Ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ g( I" s, s, X0 {* `: f0 Qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
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recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) P2 _( G, \% C6 S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. |+ p9 K' i# x) e1 o" nmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 a1 P! u/ _) X. \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' e( w) {! J6 ~: g
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ _" X# d: s' T' z, O9 A7 K- M
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
7 O" e) j1 p, L& J. N: s( Lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 \! U- R+ W- \8 H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan4 }) Y. ~9 q  E  b! X
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: o$ W7 G/ B. Mrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 O2 J! A( l( oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" _; U7 t! r1 H  J9 \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 I6 G6 C! I  N# A2 E/ k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
& P6 h' l0 d: i; Z* A! PThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) k/ _  y1 K: s+ i8 m; [3 lresale price in February is evidence that past prices& g  Q( s" k' {% b
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove9 z: J% J; ~* [" o$ B1 a, Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, Z# c, _7 G3 W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& \- ?4 q( \6 ~( r/ C5 ]0 ]Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. _, @3 \+ i! Vleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 @" O$ \' |$ _9 R4 _Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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9 Y5 w' s+ C0 o0 ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 3 M  a8 [5 L) Y4 e
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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- n" E7 O' i) W6 \% e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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