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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
+ u7 P' E8 E1 T0 m. ^3 q& n' [Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- s. n1 U& ]( I2 P% z0 [, K. l B8 Nboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# g4 }1 D% }5 P3 y+ {$ w8 R& @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 p6 t+ A6 t7 f2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& F5 y3 A: @% L) x Q0 U! L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ R9 Q' l% T1 W- z' p0 V( C& hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( D/ v( H, E+ A" B1 E) p" rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 B# l: l# O0 B+ L/ b8 ?
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- H% a1 i) O, u$ ?4 b# N& t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' ]0 U. s) D. ^$ x: g3 `, b
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 g/ b; Q& p" @. y% Tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( r8 w7 @ A4 I! {! Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: |: i/ Y& q1 H3 Y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 g1 p* \! O# ]! fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# p Y# U0 }8 r: w5 \) W0 n/ B# T30,000 new households will form in the province during& a, \+ r- }3 ^; x( L
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) x$ v6 b/ g2 v2 N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 p4 i- E# G& U& e7 J, k: }homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 @2 z8 r- Z4 b b& g& |7 Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 M7 _& @/ H$ f0 v( \- w. G
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& D+ s1 ~4 ]" C# P% I8 Vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals0 m, P2 G/ x8 O. b) S2 S$ J' A2 a! m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- Q& j5 K {1 b" {5 x T3 ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) D6 s. T" y$ D& _4 r# t' zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 x$ v" d; H2 g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of3 V2 H( h% e* K9 r1 u" e* e% ~
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% t% A# I6 ?) q' r- s7 P& n
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: J! i3 [9 R7 C$ \
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
9 a# ^0 q7 y a3 t; L3 Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 e1 i/ J# k+ c7 @! @- ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# }5 h' r5 K5 F) d% O; hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- |3 H% I# ~& l, c: Z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: T, t8 z8 o; T/ M2 O: r9 w
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
2 b" j; j$ n' C+ A: s( Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories K* a4 q1 o9 p
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ j( K6 P: N" J* u- \
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 |( ]2 m, f( G3 G1 V; |, P
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
/ o7 d+ A! H4 k, m1 x* g4 S1 I5 O1 Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.7 }* O* `6 }: H# r: j8 ?7 n2 z* Z" t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ S5 ]$ o7 L& N: ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% w( I0 |7 W( A6 _4 [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- C7 q7 _6 s+ E* `; i* C1 o* R
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 S+ a% C0 w+ t. ~$ Q. e/ athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 i. J+ k' E1 A2 W; T9 l N5 U7 G
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, D" O n2 W7 b' J+ G6 f* n( {5 IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 V, F5 N4 T! a/ y! u# c; i: Fresale price in February is evidence that past prices
, p, ~) x! c7 z( J( q3 Z# Q- mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove& m7 h$ {( N& s
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’$ ?$ s4 Y1 V( s- G
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) T6 a! V( w$ SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 C, M' M: C2 \! Bleg down over 2009.3 K- N. a. ^% B. s0 g4 p
# \8 q8 A/ y; W. Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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