ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.

The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

2 E  o  e" n; |; S* CNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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, X+ }1 f1 L& O; }3 \) VTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

' b7 G8 R; w* ^"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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% e  o3 ]8 z( ~TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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/ `; e- E* g- c/ YMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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! S1 \0 |3 z+ m  q* I% Dhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# z8 Y0 a2 `* D, K, u) t跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

9 G' y1 j& \. P0 _6 R! {9 r很多人都回学校深造去了
8 t: X- ]3 M7 y- k& ]嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 S/ e* h1 }1 G6 kare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 g3 v7 b2 E% t' \4 ]  Qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( R7 ^9 G, k. l2 }* b# h/ |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
  [# k- a( v  Y  X+ b  y4 ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# r6 A; `: E% qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
  {' u2 n2 n8 F0 c3 V: Eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 m4 b# U6 u" G2 c* F, Lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 }: c5 J+ `5 H# n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 v6 }' P+ D& W( q0 C% qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
3 W; t! K' j% L, L  ]% Q) yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 `1 s$ S  M& V, i% }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- }2 r( Z. y7 n! F" G4 Ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 V! E9 }' R5 H0 ?+ ~- wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 ]1 G, o0 y6 W! G  x. o2 Yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* j, [! s! \4 P# {3 irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' J6 V9 z- c- J! z/ ^! vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 R. y2 l$ R' L5 kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' j' ^5 u. R) h% Sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
; F. `" ?) o9 ^6 `7 k0 |  J$ AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% f# G, m! Q; _. K- Y4 X1 yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 {' @; y: i5 ^5 A0 @& J! ?- ^) A0 M4 Fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. Q4 h1 d* E" Q6 |8 |  zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 l% j9 `* o2 uon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 |1 c; u4 Q/ W# Uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ u' Y- u4 w3 s9 whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: \. B" }, Y' T. n& |deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 }. B7 ~* d8 ^" k! x5 ]  {leg down over 2009.

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. ~% W4 Z& l2 I/ G# j2 DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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4 ?" ^2 ~' F" ]. ~4 E: t" `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, N/ j* h8 C+ `& r. l翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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6 M& r: y' k( ahttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing