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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 K+ \# {& |; |& a3 ], l
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
+ f1 K: |3 s2 ?- r- d
& Z2 v+ r6 k/ }; aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
! `2 ^0 j! r) e% |3 [6 Y: R
, Z8 c' b- d+ Z. k% p5 U2 l- X"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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# V# F/ \- o8 Y* xNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 _( S2 |& [/ B8 N7 v

0 E/ S: [" k: Y$ d+ @"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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. r: Q3 v) `0 ^- u, c2 G7 ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.& d' P* j/ D; B
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 4 `0 k+ r- m/ j+ i6 X2 b4 v( k! z

7 x6 l8 `) Y; j% {' E$ Phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

& h. X- J4 k3 f, ?7 z9 q( N* [  {! Q+ @3 H# |) z; D
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,' Y  o: \) e5 W7 w$ Y6 y% G

9 s/ k3 y! a/ b; S& \! K[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
# H; G/ H5 Z/ A5 J! p 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。8 C2 Q* \. d# W, L5 `

6 J" u* U$ b' P, z  a" T& y( A[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
$ L4 f6 @+ w! H跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了: N% }. Q4 V; ?4 ?
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) O  g# V3 e3 F. c7 {Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 ^5 c; f6 T' A8 `! v) i+ k2 n: m
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 |- A. K3 i+ x; H  d
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to4 \2 x% ~6 o$ C! r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 ?& ~" d2 X# L* f6 s$ P+ D; A2 T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 N6 a" J2 \, ~" Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& E" m* c0 I! y% B# U
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" ~* e0 V; ?  q0 t& L+ Nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 F+ b# S8 j( M
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 T" a$ Y8 \1 Z& x- O
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
+ W5 R3 T& c" Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& b6 }: D7 P2 l6 T7 eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( J0 Y" C$ ~4 w4 B. ?year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! n$ p/ S0 n8 [. _/ v
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' ^. H& u0 a2 A
30,000 new households will form in the province during# a0 C$ [; d( J! k
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ Q+ X, |- Y; f: l2 B) {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 p2 x" D  i/ Y7 V6 f+ `4 |) f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, O+ Y% ]  p2 C7 o1 }: W' i, j
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta1 i7 o$ M+ V- n# C7 X
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( n. u( o7 C4 Q' f. w
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
# J8 R3 `& ~; N* @; Sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ m/ O5 D& B  ]6 J1 ?4 ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% V$ d+ X2 `: w9 F+ f5 i8 ?. G3 J9 Oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 k0 S$ s: H" F5 p( F/ Kexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, L  e% B# N! a) a9 V1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* n/ i8 j% W1 Q) A' \# b) u1 `
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" M9 N. i9 X( C) ~
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 S$ v+ a$ B/ w; q9 b9 t$ \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, Y) Z5 N9 z6 Z* sunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 a0 u6 H( E% J# v8 M$ k
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 s4 i" W4 g* @- p1 s3 {% [7 Rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% `1 `9 t  f) V# ~! O4 `0 P2 r6 t1 tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: @# y: w! O) f. W. l5 g) bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 B& u. v, F8 K9 b; S$ H. @; h% B  Fof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 k& f4 `1 [! v* ~# W# ~1 J" i2 Srapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." c$ q& a& p* n$ h7 {3 b
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. w  N4 J6 j  ]  Qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.$ v9 _3 J& H! |8 _; x
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* E  \9 c! ~, Z" C0 y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, [+ o; h2 t) u. i' b3 z& G
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' F9 e+ o/ ^5 O+ F5 Y% S2 O
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even! T/ k, N+ f! C, ]7 v+ Z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 {. P6 [; G( Y' c3 e! e/ {
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 j  d; J, v/ p  m+ cThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 s% ~& C* ]! b8 t  wresale price in February is evidence that past prices9 B, t1 o6 k0 p9 }; F1 \/ B$ @5 W
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! R) |. ]; o2 Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
$ A9 [/ B% t) u7 c6 Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  T* M+ ~! H/ \$ h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& q/ w, l8 [' W, a6 {; _4 N" m# k" Zleg down over 2009./ z# j8 {7 o6 ]  A! Q

9 |) s' J- C- L0 \2 E: Y, g# ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, {7 x1 c. u: \2 WAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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# Y8 S4 ?( D0 E7 m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ K$ J! ^4 t7 {
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 U: }8 P8 ~) S
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments1 D) k2 c, _. G
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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