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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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6 I0 v' q- R' o. x. TTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. $ R+ n+ ^; i8 i' g" w

" H3 R& v5 N# f, {4 j! XThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 }/ j/ a4 `/ w1 P

0 I: e+ X3 e" V# t, i; e$ A2 |Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 ]/ ]0 Z; Q2 Q. @  w5 Q
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.0 }* [5 R7 s% K# O3 Y

* B4 i/ K8 A; V, t, J( d"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 e7 p8 ^, `+ j& F
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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" N6 U* V7 R2 _" F! o; tMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 8 C) Z, i6 r: E% M0 S4 y  f  k

9 M; K) j6 A  v# ]http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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# x. k' E+ Y( p( L1 w& a# ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
/ C" I& x# f9 I( h$ x1 W: z5 ?0 H3 n, Y1 H! o8 \- X
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。8 E1 I4 ], ^1 G# n
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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' W4 T1 i, ]! V1 q5 j[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
7 M5 |, ~' Y) j2 ~1 p& q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

) u4 t9 ?1 }- q% ]* u- W! U+ W很多人都回学校深造去了
( L( G/ k2 H# g, w; a& f嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- F8 W1 Z+ C0 K$ F# W+ Z- S$ l6 k
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 [- @: e& B% I! @) |; K0 P! n5 e" C
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: L* ?% X' M, @. `/ U3 z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 t; w' s' F+ W0 ?$ {! ~' {0 }
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
1 p& i% v& i: l, s8 b: j6 Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 C* _# @2 C3 m8 G+ ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: S& i; L/ s' b) R
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 v# ?, X) l+ \) Hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 v9 H' |7 b& T& ~1 o* N- @8 Xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 I$ [1 B; Q4 X8 Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, s6 S- G# O) R: d* H0 S7 \to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* C1 ?- q: B  v
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 A( C! c3 \5 C7 [% S5 `$ [) d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: C( e" ~" h% e; C' Y9 V% c9 o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ ?2 b; C; B- k# Y, \4 T- d/ S8 T30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 n6 S& e3 @  q, g2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 N6 L, ]# H  [1 m3 `) S) T- PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s# `( E! o: n& G) R
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! r7 T2 ^( ^. C- D3 f: G. Bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ g( o& l/ m) H: y) |0 \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" }/ g  i2 F- W% O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" ^; ?9 |/ `% r. K9 @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
7 w3 D+ m1 @) Lsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; m1 q' y+ C, x' T" a1 H( @
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) B, L; m3 b  X" P% n  ?! }6 E0 Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: i: |3 F2 y# U$ z- s" R, P
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 |0 [( \( d1 _$ F/ @; u, p6 a0 g/ o! Tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: Y6 a2 V1 x9 y. E( C
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; j* ?: E3 Z& X, Ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 W/ B% m0 J$ punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# k, x$ y  o" C/ l
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  T2 w( F4 Q% I7 e6 _( i" ?7 s( |recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 M) K  G4 r' cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! \/ `8 _  l' G$ C- j# ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
  C% a  ?+ J- dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled  `9 U: t: a  ~* ?# q( v" ]
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' {0 N6 m* x4 L
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 w! g4 R" _) H* H
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 h% {& @7 T3 V( l! X+ i! T$ H) BAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan" c' s# C: _7 G8 b# @+ z6 ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 m; U+ ^; e) l
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 P$ @1 [  Y- Q: M4 o) h: [prices substantially eroded affordability and, even) U" p8 p1 P+ [3 V. G# t* V
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ \. g* g. ~6 \& d( u2 O( A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.  w4 ?" w  Z: S
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
  h5 l/ g# G7 @4 I* o- yresale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 R4 a. Z; k) ~exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) b8 R# A/ B. e" I% l0 k! khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# x( [. N* w) m$ W$ |/ X5 ]% f4 jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 [* |' H5 X; J) a
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# `2 p) e2 X# X5 t. q; Gleg down over 2009./ S% _; o) P4 ]+ }/ r; K" E
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: |+ v6 i7 S. j$ y, \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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, W/ G+ u" B: ?4 _8 P9 z% h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. % t8 C. p5 _# @2 s
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子# n* Y1 L  Z/ G# ~9 e

# h: |; d/ ~4 h/ [# Chttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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3 p$ a$ H1 d: Z4 |- }! S4 ]1 l4 H- d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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