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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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: |5 H6 }7 }3 F3 OTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ g: h- S7 e' q3 d

8 |0 J5 [0 V( `% ~" }5 v! UNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 B4 W, |  R; @' u( ?
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 c9 F0 ?) X* w- Q. Z% N

- k6 l& i& k# ^% X8 J/ CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.& h: h; v" Y# W: h

7 K  B! @2 M4 I7 W$ ^; {# ?% z4 wMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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, ?& v" J9 n' \% \- e$ J/ Jhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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  T7 b; k8 T/ V  W' K5 b' g9 L) NTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 M7 U5 Z$ U; r6 m2 G4 A2 W) o

" ~2 [" b( T# k/ J, Y+ O[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  {2 v0 G/ Q# M 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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$ X$ v' K* Y7 T) V& E: \+ ]+ b[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
8 B3 }8 ]( x) E/ Q9 n5 b. Q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
- |5 ]* ^( ~+ C' k4 O嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 A4 |+ i/ O# t7 j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# n1 R* }& L% S! u) l+ @* H5 o
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ X* z9 O. V- X% \% c4 c8 h
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 K9 W5 J. e3 N9 H( u4 n2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; Z! A, t8 R9 p2 p$ r8 d4 xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! }$ B7 o2 N& P2 E5 U/ _from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. f. g) [1 q# u8 S: Y0 X! w
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' H# L2 {3 ^% \3 y; p8 ^7 Y% E# W! d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; h0 E" R% M; ^3 i! r6 M1 _- v4 e& `0 v) Gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 r1 H2 W) x( U  t& k
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 x- i* w6 l0 f& s% Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. P' a6 j$ w" ?" s1 S
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ s2 F& Q( q) E( l' Syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' o& G/ s5 X7 P5 p7 n* X4 z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' N, ~1 I1 h9 S9 k* ~7 h
30,000 new households will form in the province during2 K& p) J% w5 d7 L# T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: Q8 r( W9 o* ?6 S
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 m6 B: f- O3 r/ Q% \% ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( y1 n+ o$ N3 E4 p) K  V
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 n( H! R6 n/ B4 w6 x
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! d2 W% |! s( b2 s
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ {9 L# H% e  [, ~% P. B' e3 k8 z; E* sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: _, I( t1 r* c
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 E. q1 k8 F" ?' h3 w# \clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 n* z6 v; Y3 n) ]$ p0 u8 rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: W% j' b1 {4 W+ B5 M. ]* c5 F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 e  u  I% P! x: i. i8 Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive7 p) y6 u- {8 }$ n" W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" U9 d$ i3 V7 t: B9 i. K. itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 V2 o# G: ~) ~& W% v
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' D. j" _1 u9 t! \
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 o" T/ _. j* P5 J* b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, t$ P1 {6 x6 k+ s2 p" }resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. A3 `1 L* Q( Y! K1 Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 M$ T6 x6 h( U& |- m  Dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled& D5 N& y2 c9 |; G# Y, C) G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# a5 k1 O2 g+ s( B7 j
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* A. G. C  q2 A4 _6 i6 T/ N! v, tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) a8 n5 _2 a+ L) i3 \. i: _
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan3 u( X7 ~6 _8 t! U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, b3 k" f- y8 q9 q! j4 q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 ~2 p; z7 ]' G- L' H  dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 Z# I! K' @' l# j+ y* t  W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
$ u) Q- c4 K5 Y; f9 Q# aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' O. ?( E: m. h- b+ kThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 X2 n5 n  Z& g% S$ V+ v+ }& gresale price in February is evidence that past prices# B! v. E; [! m4 u" I
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ E- c( l7 h: [- y" k! O& c6 D' Dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# ^# y# F9 b' Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' l* e; |" c+ s& `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 U" Z2 W/ b& [% w# r' xleg down over 2009.% a. C* R. R; ?: ~
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 p% C0 e  W" b  i. e" VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ( I6 e4 I" S  [5 ~( _( a
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子5 |" r3 V! h, P
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments+ T) V  ^! ^8 n& e2 H6 Z

. L' H$ V3 k( f3 z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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