 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
* o- M% N( o2 CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" N6 B# l4 O3 a9 K8 |
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 D7 ^8 G8 `9 E2 u5 ~& j
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, c; M$ b" N" J, f# ?* p
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 _1 |+ [) e9 t8 Y; y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
& V D- {, a8 V) g9 D! efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,+ R* ?; p- D; L. j/ M& Z& c4 e
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ G- m. ]+ a- t5 ]+ I* p7 M' O6 p( bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 P% B: d2 m5 ^+ v, s$ e2 b( zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed L$ }7 _. F% {. A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! M/ X# d2 K" U' M G) D$ xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. g3 c0 f: K( I: w1 w: Eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- s% S' k) s6 `; ~* u( j1 kyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 i7 U( K# H& h) R3 B i" F7 j
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' r. y% Y4 M. h9 l2 e30,000 new households will form in the province during+ _0 V2 W6 e+ z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ O0 O6 r- U/ A; f, w/ q7 g6 h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s0 C3 E2 E. J& Y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%) \0 o- S! `& L& Z* a1 Q+ ]0 C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; w8 l0 f7 `* Q' H6 C3 J
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new L5 V: n7 j6 n3 q9 o! Z( e
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. D* s8 c+ o k2 N, z4 ^5 i0 _9 |8 M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. l' N# X$ h9 r4 l* j; t- Z, U! Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 a+ M% h# w9 [, T
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 u& ?5 Q, m# X2 F: l6 v
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
: d6 u' h$ N2 w9 _& y5 f; f% Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# ^/ l$ b, R! U* A+ T9 a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- n N/ z/ B& J- G) l, jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 B2 j& d* j4 `( C ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& V, p3 l, P7 x* }unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 s7 W: H/ D% ?- m3 H& e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) W+ N. s3 [) ~0 [* e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
" z. p- X- I' n- b8 N0 D2 ~) Kresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 e/ `3 n% \- p) Q' F8 z* Qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ n: k* o$ L" F- g8 f2 s& H* Nof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) E. }1 |% T0 w4 A8 F, Urapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
- F: k% B5 r: d( Q5 s7 CThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* A" N0 k* B: P4 bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 R6 i2 w, q+ T* }. S9 {Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
# h- T3 T/ [" e2 dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; E5 w G( ]' k) H: }relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale; A' ~8 k% B: l% n
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even, h G2 D" a1 d7 @
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. h: Q. n( V+ a; ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 D# X) \! V7 e+ b S/ dThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 P2 U( f Y' [ nresale price in February is evidence that past prices
" Q( k2 p5 ?' r- P( r4 P" gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) u7 t4 x/ L( l6 g7 ihomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* \, Q6 J1 \* @8 e
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. [; v- ?* i+ D" q- DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 n- u7 E5 f+ v% |, H' Yleg down over 2009.
5 C$ a. n: D! o# Y/ ]) [) w0 G3 Z& G- |( v% t2 |
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|