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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 O3 o. g! |; _; O

1 L' Z) s5 n0 s# ?. ?3 r3 A6 c* OTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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5 o0 T% ?9 h3 [  b. vThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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* G- f/ B4 i! L"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 5 w- _6 r* ?& Y+ a
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' v; @" P5 [7 W1 ^/ C  _* [4 r
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.2 s- n; F) `1 m0 ?8 B' f
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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5 w+ ^' t9 s* u+ W& L- \! ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
# m% n! I) q4 Z, v$ Y6 w1 ] 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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5 v0 _+ y2 D1 Z8 k[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 d$ y* D, N! R
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
2 f5 n( e; d7 Q7 W嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta# z5 A( s/ t9 ^% f- E0 A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, n0 P; t# ^- A! C7 K. Eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton3 O, O# d* @6 o5 A
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 f  R3 g6 ~/ b' d1 p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, B# V4 G5 p9 A3 x2 W4 U2 B
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided8 {6 c1 h) L& y: |/ K6 ^* S
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: K2 f3 u4 D! r' Xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" F  H6 i0 q0 v3 l: j! smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 @0 y0 p$ g( k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ ~4 q& Y, g" U
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ E  \1 V6 K- z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, {% ~6 o/ g2 L7 Z2 j/ p. N3 U& @7 e. G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ k; z) Q; f0 S) _/ G, L
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," z5 p/ f8 C+ q  z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 F' J/ u- _, }0 C0 J, u
30,000 new households will form in the province during. T) c& p4 @2 ~/ C* t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 ~! b! ]! `. |, s3 V( r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s- S( H# l& r) S
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 E6 V" }% Q& [2 o8 Lduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 N0 A1 R' i/ R5 Y/ U/ Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ d" h4 V) H5 ^! R5 ~$ V5 i$ a
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 Y" o; P' A3 A/ Y6 m0 [  t
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( A+ ]6 g7 s1 K4 W. q: X( Fsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" ?: G# {& d1 |clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* H( O7 B* X1 s( N2 {' Iexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# W+ m0 V: _7 x4 S1 ?1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 L6 K9 F# G6 T9 U$ [2 p' W
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: h  t& ^! x! e  c. J. h0 ]) ?buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& P' ~1 N' `6 n" B' y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 r$ ?  c! U' ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; }, j& D" L# P5 D+ D: sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
  {3 R* @4 V* v* C0 x5 mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 [, P3 ^9 [' p/ Q  g0 p) Fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- e; p- U1 `0 X6 P6 B6 d8 _
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! y4 T, j! F6 y6 jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ X3 A: \3 \' v0 lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: _5 K) L, P- l: sThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- W% s1 J8 `# p, t
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.9 E' b4 A0 g: a: }
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan6 U$ o- l3 A* b8 f: O- ~+ C
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 ]) T/ z2 E( u+ C6 ^
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: v  h4 A. D2 _: G
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
  Q4 z9 f* |  Z+ Othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. _: H; E( A. D+ q! z+ f3 S% Jon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 `9 f6 c: X: u4 R% b; l* M' Z7 h
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* {' V4 j1 G1 x/ [' [
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, S) |0 o; q- ]  w7 u5 ?2 iexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ P/ G" x) Q/ }7 |
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) }  \4 r% O1 u* |6 _deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 Y3 `) }: P6 R# O: W7 yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 A9 ^( E- C5 {
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; q. ?  }2 ]5 Q# }) ~9 {# y; w
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
- c# ^3 Y! H8 l: K9 v- I$ s翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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5 a/ j4 p/ W$ ihttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: E; C" R! r$ T( q
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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