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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
+ U% q2 [1 S* `. Y* r# fWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 P" _& o3 \" _. \4 `( }" \; I4 F
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' v6 d! g) W6 B1 k& g9 b; g
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to' Z. X. u9 H! q9 ~1 }
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 ?8 a% |# o- ?
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ L [5 F7 P- `2 L/ u/ `, _from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 N3 ^! X: U9 P+ Fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. J% d. C" k( e( | V1 r' G E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- \. L3 o5 K! f ?0 D7 }
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
) A( d b8 U' J$ j0 [3 v& }precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
8 m1 ?, Q" \0 {, O% x" _1 Q& Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) A. N! Q# G h- s0 q6 V& o: _
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' m0 c' n k1 Y1 \" ?7 o, }
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: V- m" v+ P. Z @* Z% q q+ Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" R0 v) T% T6 x/ F) c
30,000 new households will form in the province during
# ^1 d! j3 E; X0 q: O5 j2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 q" B' P; d; `0 R" o; OEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 G* S3 @- j# i2 Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 ? t0 O5 D: @' a9 s1 i
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 \+ v# {8 ~0 a& i% B0 p- Y! [has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) f- @5 A6 e8 T: Uhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
1 _ Q6 ` z, N Q6 Wduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 `8 `0 \, @0 L6 A/ t- Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 ^' s( {- h! | u" B9 j! |clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# j! m. j* V3 F/ u5 Texcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. S$ L0 O% X% }4 X4 J) p
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. m, f% n4 n# F7 W- F. ^. Y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 ^" _7 x/ v! R( J: `& V0 Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in( o' N; B7 E. i: K8 I8 n7 c
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 o, ^6 x* ~6 |- b" n
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 e" u; B8 u" W2 _unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" B m) D" V3 [' ]: e9 a& R/ erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 B) n; ~' C' L" x( o2 \+ b
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ S; b C1 L" Y% l# s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ g2 F9 a' J& d9 I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 F$ f* g& s- Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ `5 @; w" L1 s& f6 _
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ s& E" g0 w/ m5 j$ K9 o! f
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# A" p/ ]# c3 W4 OAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 E1 N- q U0 p0 Phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 k0 `+ r" s8 ^8 ?, h+ [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 O& H" m* C, s# ]4 q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 j: x* p" Z+ b4 Z+ l
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 U {9 d7 Z, i$ X9 I' o! J
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 T7 c; P. v6 `! w5 v* f- m
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average p0 a( |+ K; L" U9 O* S
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 [7 l0 I3 a: X% H: Q: v+ Z+ xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
4 e+ y2 c. n# p# N# @4 chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# g. S# U" F: F8 p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# c2 C9 L; `$ o) I+ D# r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
1 S! {: p& f5 O' c+ Zleg down over 2009.
9 q( q3 a! {) a3 j& \8 }
, ^; l8 @ I* @7 u$ v. T( h( G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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