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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta( X- N( D a" h8 D V2 t
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. I/ ^" }9 H/ _6 t- i7 G) a" {3 fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ e# m/ O# @7 A2 T9 v ~! Gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 m6 t/ x+ z1 p$ ?% h$ X! U2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 G" `) u) f9 \: u/ S. I, l4 Gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided% M. o, z+ C- ?* L7 I
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% c5 y( m/ [. }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ N6 U6 O/ {5 o" E( qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous. ?8 n, I9 B& }- w5 j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 u9 t, N. J. k9 }! xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" R& u/ o- F& [: m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; j* w, K( b/ ~6 B1 h
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this9 ^8 g" T' Y! f; A+ q; Q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 x8 u! V% a- g' {" Y# d( c! ^' ^homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around% [) N4 g7 B/ ~* f2 u
30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 J a+ K+ k7 e ]( B5 x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- ]/ U7 G2 \, xEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s7 [, N+ H6 l* ]/ v: F
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%- B1 n# c. X# C- q. l# t& F
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
2 Q8 `4 M& u# i1 x+ a. vhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ S9 P7 g8 A: m& ~ N& q3 O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* o S& y5 ]6 `& o# \during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging \0 b! r) |8 ~2 L: \
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 r% ? c0 p( q
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 X( k( q( p7 K% Mexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% s: C! n; W3 \2 i! F W% _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 R& ?+ Y; O9 Z( Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 J T6 u2 E( f: Z7 G$ Fbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: U9 m K6 O7 p0 ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 x L% y: V! j Zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; H' ^% M; M* Q; X1 B7 runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: d1 D. }$ t, u1 z! n
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- i+ g5 o+ U( p7 ^4 u' U: L) A
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 B' k3 ]2 r x$ z) Imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 `1 P' i$ U }' K% U" z' i y, q# Z
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 I. Q7 P9 R7 O+ {7 C: zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 L2 P: ?, u, s: `3 pThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 Z9 m9 a7 \, }1 Xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- `% {1 e. @% Y& G' k2 ZAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan* z, ]. q2 T$ @9 ]9 ~# |
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 q1 a! T) {( |; N5 t& o) z4 J
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! _) f" Y- n2 o, r# {' _! @' U& S: z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 z4 R: |% g, ~: Y; o6 _5 M0 X3 Pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 |4 q# S! S- ]+ m# V/ }- p4 Pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. [8 P8 b' S/ A$ i; a7 vThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; g2 @' ]1 t% A' U7 c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! F0 W6 t/ Q8 Dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: F/ [; U, s w
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) q4 u7 S0 L) f+ Ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 G* p2 f8 ~5 R% _( f* ?* Q3 |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 e' u' s5 P! f' V; N6 q4 pleg down over 2009.
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4 ?) q |4 o! f! d! l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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