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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.9 f+ q; d8 s+ w, B2 N8 \5 e# g

2 _: M7 Y/ x/ y6 b  A! kTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 3 c# u9 g, s$ |: m4 P+ U! f
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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6 S9 x+ W( b( }( ^- |"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.   h* K( r$ P( G) M: i" I

: u( ]1 Z5 N/ ~' wNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." t; q9 A0 G5 j. H8 Q

  J3 v3 X9 f9 N; n# STD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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5 k$ b4 o" f% u  |& z"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. . P) P- Q' j  e; x! Z
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., z" {) M+ C8 N+ o

8 E, G% F1 m% z" xMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % _, `" v1 T5 E/ H/ |
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。4 [" w$ H, c8 T: f8 z7 `. \
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 c1 E& X4 _' p6 T. o5 A
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: ?7 ~' u3 L6 P' ^9 J8 ^很多人都回学校深造去了
7 s3 X4 ^$ a. g7 L+ z嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
0 ?2 N; @% T7 n, m1 tWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ S$ v: T; @+ s! O& B6 D! P) d- qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( {  X* v! s6 O6 b! z/ qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( i8 D3 g7 q  I1 \3 O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- z7 ?: D# ~* H" l2 w# Wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ g5 c. F. G. H4 V: Kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. G1 Q1 d5 C4 p2 _& X0 u6 ^7 q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' h# U' i8 w: F4 J
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) k: h  U( h. {) I3 C$ {. M% Z8 @
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
) d% M5 @3 N9 i# b" a' Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) _" P9 d& B( L5 [# J4 hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
5 v' O7 H8 O3 ]! D8 p3 ^! x( lprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, b! s) E, r6 Q6 r- k9 B9 C2 j% gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, s9 F/ i+ ]' Q, q  e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 H% y9 u. w" A" o- r2 o30,000 new households will form in the province during
% Y  X0 h  z; x. U+ Z0 Q* w9 ]2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. }* u" u0 E: p
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 r* c- [$ v7 S1 c- {. X, Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 s) W9 ~$ u. R  X6 q# u+ lduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. V$ ^- Q8 `! @0 f8 g9 Chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 W6 B, A3 Y; Y; b8 b& q5 p: @
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ {& g. ]/ T5 ?8 Q1 jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- O$ F9 s9 O5 R. j# s
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ e9 o- o) N9 D* Z+ Q/ y7 E% H0 ?
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! `$ _/ n# }+ b3 o+ u0 d' q* K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" `( A( o( x, Q) \0 J1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 Y( U6 j6 n9 T( p' I
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# _2 u6 Q+ I( I( e8 a. c0 Pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ a$ w5 ^: Q  T, i: a" ~, L
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: Y/ F5 N- C) p
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# n- q, T7 L, Q. c
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
( ^2 X/ ~2 s9 s0 l& A, W" n3 M' grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 L) l% N: e0 ]0 U. ?
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 j1 w% n0 V! @7 `' |+ d, I
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. h: c0 P9 o3 a" C7 W4 O
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 o! K0 r4 O& ^) }5 u! k, ~! m
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% g. j  N5 d% p; C, i& N3 l
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% d  y5 T1 P: n" j' H. U5 e
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% k3 I& d* V: [# f7 D8 D* O( I* Y/ G
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: v' [% y  j: o. Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 c0 ]& c* [. Y3 @
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ B, \' L3 S  X8 f( h; Oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
  H7 C8 q- V' v8 d7 uthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- C/ ~9 Z, P- ]  {7 k# b( B+ u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" v9 x) U) S) t0 ^The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 m) Z7 b& S; M7 [' F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices0 r1 |( G' p; F) u4 }) g8 J. d" w
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! ?7 Z. `( V& g1 J& Thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* ~, O7 m. Y# o; m; J0 Z# [deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 H! n6 r1 K4 \. r% p
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 J+ E8 j7 j+ {8 V2 `6 i' i& Z, P
leg down over 2009.
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( Y0 E% n, J5 [2 K8 U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* Z' D# R; ^. c+ F3 o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
& E: u# Y! L! \# i- X) U. T4 R" V翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: d$ k! B/ m" s6 l
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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