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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 v7 [# t, P( G0 [8 ~, [% i

" R; ]# U& d' }! QTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 ~8 t4 q" N2 S) z1 j

( M0 r) r. I8 U7 z* _The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ! v5 p) L/ G) q( y- N$ E
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ! E, N" l) e. Z/ j7 O$ {  ]( M: F

5 y* H1 j0 y/ P0 C$ _+ X- rNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.! ?- l/ d( p, l( d7 E8 T; B
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 2 [1 |4 i( j9 G  t) i2 ^: @
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.* U' C9 a4 }/ O0 i( D$ H9 Q6 F" X
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 5 i+ p  J* I7 E$ g
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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4 l8 h% }0 [$ e2 p/ ATD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  O( {) e* A3 V. J+ P/ ^* g 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。% X, X& H, N9 E" P  E

- O) n: n' r5 t/ Y$ \$ r[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % h# K2 V2 M: t( V& A  s
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

$ M9 a) H; B0 f  j$ Z! B& _很多人都回学校深造去了5 v  \; O: f# y
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, A( G7 c% a! P. W; IWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 L' n3 u  r" ]- ?7 v3 W( P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* Z+ n" ^' f$ Y0 p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% a2 U9 S* A. k' H6 B; f2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ h" v( ]# k4 ?formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- ~0 y+ G8 [  Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) T! k- a0 N+ Othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 V* {% e  J# M- h4 [- Nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
) y" M( H0 R8 `- d& a2 S% j7 N" e* Cpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! Q: L2 A1 U" w% ~4 Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ n0 d" ~0 U" \0 y; I' Oto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, L4 C  P+ D+ h, Zprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this! m; I, I  m/ j' a* |
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,! S: Q, }4 h- w7 @% X& w& a
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 r2 ?$ r9 {; ^" @0 J
30,000 new households will form in the province during1 I, i6 j% K4 q. j% j  B) b/ Y8 [
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) n* V7 y" q! h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) I+ [" [* H/ ?* T  ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 J+ P& H  N3 b1 L
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 V$ J# x! K+ c" U
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new. n+ w* y# l; m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
4 }8 I: _" p+ a% e' Tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 v) l* \" w! e
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories" ]5 O) _" ]# H6 s3 V+ s8 V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 J4 y( \2 ]- m1 V+ B0 x
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ q& E) q  K' {4 @/ O; G
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& `/ @+ _$ A" b0 f4 M! D" ^
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
  i; d: X( }2 s, b0 `buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& h9 Q1 l" }! b7 g+ v% b2 F# X6 U
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 z' w6 D4 [* h& z, Z" D% Q  }
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. m1 q% l5 u6 P' d. b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 b- z. N' h. d! Y+ N
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; X+ a8 Y6 C. F; lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 u. N+ f) @" h
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 Z7 u) [  N3 w& s* j. @& Rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* u9 D- ^% ~7 X0 Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& d6 l( h, S( Z2 u, S) i" wThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
+ c- P- l" q( `# P) Cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- `& X5 `2 y* V5 M* d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan+ e/ R2 J  S3 r+ ^
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 O- `- `6 N5 f/ Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# R+ W: S6 L: aprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 j# m9 L" D' O2 ~though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' Z- J( [6 O7 Z! K( yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- H, {6 z/ W+ H! L/ k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 W& A. P* q4 ?* X6 tresale price in February is evidence that past prices  w$ _. K/ Y5 g& l/ O
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; ?0 K9 A: Y( whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ }( _5 F0 U; F! i7 }: V4 ^deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ K3 d8 ]7 Q( ]0 ~$ g5 I
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( X5 c; t  X  v9 `leg down over 2009., j; M- H2 a2 l
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ B+ v$ ~4 m3 `3 k" n& g+ O- }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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- O2 v/ X8 L1 T9 z) e* e' l4 r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
/ L7 [" q1 d1 E翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments5 X% a1 r: d- l1 B! }  ]
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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