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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- H/ ]) |: T4 t$ |" W
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 Y$ A7 W4 Z$ d) t$ ~5 E
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 {( g! \% U4 w5 z+ A
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: u1 k/ P/ ]# r, \
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* D9 r0 [& J" |+ |5 t/ q% v1 M X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided8 }; w* I, [8 z# K
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
, z4 y$ J1 [' c- {( Y2 o# w9 c: K7 `the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! w" ^- d ]3 n4 A8 {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ b/ W s9 W, s$ s+ h2 wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* h' Q- t8 [, h/ l. `) ]) c- W Vprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 I' L& R" K5 d1 o7 E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, b0 p6 d; b Z) ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' n |" Z9 f3 b# B+ i3 R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
z1 g, k7 |0 X' C; Ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 V, ^, }' `' }3 G/ V30,000 new households will form in the province during/ n4 W- V+ w" C; Z. D+ E6 q
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: X8 e+ A2 D/ S4 V, d& V- H# u
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ n! v( i5 U1 X8 p" {: D/ y' y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& C3 _) Z6 G6 \* \8 z( y; }during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ r2 a, p" [4 _7 N6 chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new: O' a: y& ]6 p! ]
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. n1 B1 A# y$ P2 M- L; dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
o- g' c: ], Q% J! ^* x! c# ~: isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 m- x, }# ?4 N4 e3 @8 H, v
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
Y0 Q: D4 q* Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of Z g6 H% |5 j' v$ [" w: z
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' ~; H) B/ Y6 Y( H2 P9 u# [$ @sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% x" X' `% X9 `) T% ~, mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 W% j8 }) ^( ]7 Htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: S; _9 C+ T( u7 U, Iunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- d" B9 A$ V; c, ^: E1 U; k
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" @/ y& P4 y' A2 Precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% N( a9 Z* o# K& D2 e1 Rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! }7 M$ y; \8 k
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- V# ~* }; O& C$ v& J. r. j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled% B2 \- {. Y2 P2 f( ~, [
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 {. }0 y0 ~- S7 a% l
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% ~$ ^4 @" b$ C- d' |* C( @5 ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ w, f6 c% L7 q3 s) {Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 C! I( i, n2 ~housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ o, d; v& r; ^" Q( }relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) T6 e9 H, |, E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even* \; @6 ]1 `, |; P! g4 @2 u
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, P/ S/ M1 Z4 p: _0 K- t
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ S, {2 Y7 h! A+ F2 K
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' C6 z* G3 o- b. h7 t5 y+ O4 ~resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! f8 h3 }6 u) u5 H% p4 e/ s$ w7 m# cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; M% ?& {# X/ Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% s+ F& ~8 b6 z4 ?* `& U& r
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: H$ ?% h" A* _' [" ?5 g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ u ~ e/ x% L
leg down over 2009.7 j8 f& e5 c! z! `/ w
% K4 _1 v, A# ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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