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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta: `- W* X0 w: {3 ^, W$ [
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; U! B* i5 O8 ~( M3 @, ?6 N) e6 L9 ^0 M
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 C {: q' m8 v' O5 |) R
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% D1 F; G" ?! l5 h4 H% R/ E
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 C+ P) R: d6 v# L$ }0 l
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 U1 R2 M0 z% L
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 G% H9 o# p3 G" o# ^5 A* M' _0 uthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 u/ N: W0 x- q: E$ Lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 k4 k! I. N- }) h( @ }/ I$ x& k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' U; Z8 c0 ?# z6 `/ t5 j, S
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined/ v O3 [$ T+ W' v$ O' o
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& V" b" a8 V: \2 Yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
[+ S9 Y% f; uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 I; v, |* n2 F) m( B5 f. ohomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; X! a0 `2 A6 D& m30,000 new households will form in the province during
! m- P2 s- w, I$ O) W: h: P5 O8 S3 ?2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 T' b4 S/ ]7 C4 r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( m( [1 z& ?1 {, F0 }homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: S# G& u: Z, v
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, R9 l' J: G a8 chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ Y8 B7 ]' F: O/ }9 dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ M, P1 ]! i5 R% u# E
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
m7 `8 ?+ t3 j9 T' Tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& T& J; E, ^2 Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% t' P1 v8 P+ e) e& M
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of4 I, h$ p6 w* t( Q3 r* ~% R
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 c0 P$ p# i7 tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" s) D! Y- J8 I7 {* Zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' i) G1 w, ?7 Z+ Y. rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# a# U$ g# Q! D& k" }4 F+ zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747; b P, z9 ^0 M+ f9 q, e. u$ i8 U+ O" i
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' d" T: _7 x: T( v6 v
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, w. p8 p; V; U: [ ?' S+ {8 Hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 a" k; t& i$ U
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- z* s( t. M3 C, S$ H
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. x% c, u+ c+ W3 V% Rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# E1 }7 L: e" a2 IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 x3 m$ ]+ h( l/ M
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: b0 g' C0 [! L1 r( K( [Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
( A, x/ P! Q' Z, k/ chousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced F/ |& R& d- q$ c" [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale$ g2 N4 w+ }6 W; W; Q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
( P% _8 u1 [2 v! Z0 ], | Q' Mthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! x6 _! b2 r6 u3 w
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: }& [+ p: t, ]0 x" hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
7 r% M" x/ u7 U' Y$ A+ mresale price in February is evidence that past prices' E X4 }; l" @# C! p8 v- o. V: W0 F
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! ?0 y7 w, {3 Q$ whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) K# F4 ^0 A7 M8 Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ K# q! h* x, Z) K
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 T; t4 x4 X; o, c* `
leg down over 2009.9 ~- l9 b5 |& n( c$ s
0 \, H) z; `0 ?! D[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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