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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.6 k6 ]" O. I! T  Z5 ?
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* l/ R, J5 F" F1 |$ g; D! I
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ T" t. O- E6 |) k2 A$ ~
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 9 z: ]6 r. l! x. G5 ~0 b  ^1 X0 q: Z

! k! r9 g/ ]7 c( p: ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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. g/ J( A+ B5 k" m5 u4 P% _1 RMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ; A3 J( X& P8 {2 }; |  i$ o

+ A. U+ G& q  n# _% khttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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; k, k* o* W$ n[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 V+ T. Z, e1 u' A/ [; k3 T 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。$ D: s- |9 |0 H( |' N( n

8 y5 }  E" m( C* F[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 * Q% j7 h9 x+ ^1 v2 \) e
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
- @3 m4 n5 i+ W. [嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, J* ]3 q* {3 }6 `' b) z7 e+ ?Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 Z7 s5 ~0 M0 V, q& J4 p; V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ K, t* ?& j7 R5 }' m7 ?. U) q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( n/ g; w4 c+ l; ]: U' h' p+ K2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ K$ ~6 m2 a" }! D. v$ c; F6 A/ Pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) H% H) p9 D  m; |1 z& L3 w+ _
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! I- d; p& G2 V+ `' X0 I
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& C  F9 J( g# P0 c8 }3 ~
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' N7 D! s/ g' Z1 e* Y0 y
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" j! U3 h- p- ~% M
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! k3 u, Z. ^) m5 q! j+ Q6 t0 rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, m4 {5 e. b; m" _0 sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% e1 k$ E- d1 G9 t+ Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
  S  V# M- S  o' y. U8 `) N. |homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: G! J7 Y+ X# x' {$ n; \* N
30,000 new households will form in the province during
' Q% O* e2 T& ?" W2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 c/ E# l6 s- i0 ]& J9 YEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s, b/ c8 _! f. W- f; Q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 X6 T+ O  h. qduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* h1 W8 Z6 y: K: Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* n& w2 H" {* d8 R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( O6 }. A& x& m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 p' D5 q& C: ?6 W2 O2 |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories% [$ `# H3 z( t
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% Y& i; i. ?1 B) Y  b
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ J% q% w+ a" i1 s3 p# {2 E6 {
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( ]: N, d/ J: K- esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 [2 {0 Q% \& [
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ _! p& B) G# o8 Ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" G3 n/ i1 r8 punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 _9 R& n2 Q  z; sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ i* K  q6 g3 m! y1 h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the; t$ k* q: `! q8 o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) g' n; [. }+ `# c( @( t; x) p: g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
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rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* k+ q0 B" D( o* `9 @4 o# `
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* V% y2 K8 G( Y/ {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) Z: O2 c1 P3 g$ j) m' f$ kAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan' D5 v& h( M+ G8 [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& x: R3 v, D6 R" _1 r0 F' a3 crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, [7 o0 c% X6 e" B2 ?6 W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even4 ?7 n" b9 H0 ~1 k+ ]! `
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 p+ e  ?* w& m8 g) }
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! ^  p2 i# C7 q+ l4 `0 K* AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) d9 h0 {% f3 ]$ vresale price in February is evidence that past prices
" s% L* E3 c: a* Z/ Hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% d0 \4 O8 b2 I$ B6 q! Q5 ]homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* t& V4 F1 O' e. k
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, W* X4 A0 b" I% rAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ E: s$ e* P. F. r, D/ i
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* R, H( Y# V; `" z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 5 j8 l' X$ _" t) r. G9 A6 I: U
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ ]3 }2 \- t0 F9 m/ ?
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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; o7 ^: A! E4 \( s+ y: y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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