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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
9 c( c) k# I# ?/ F: c0 q- rWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: t% G& Y' j! eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! c/ z4 E* A: L
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 t$ n! K- \& R- m& @2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 {, o% J2 C$ |3 o0 Pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. R5 `* z" ^& M0 U; ~from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* a3 l' H% H# t3 c& T8 c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# T7 n. y# L2 {# S+ R j! dmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 n6 O# {! U4 _, p4 O, ^pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ D; j" j# ]- G8 F( {: o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 H* n: M1 [$ P6 x& ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year# Y. J; H8 d( t( R& i
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 U% A) \7 I1 d( w9 j# A O! vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ |) A, r7 {7 e3 R! x7 q- l8 t5 Ohomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
0 ~/ t! k w3 p9 t30,000 new households will form in the province during3 ?, |' b3 o8 i8 `" G6 Z0 T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( \7 |5 w& n R I+ l. v; ?Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; r# f9 m/ q4 S: |) S9 khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% a' y3 X& z! x( f
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' {1 V X. V% r& @
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% [: ]# M0 c3 s% L
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 j' P4 Y! h* K& |6 T2 i0 ~
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; z) g2 ?9 h6 R9 m. Tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) j: {2 x. I* L+ A# A# {' l7 D7 |1 oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ g; G! Z2 m; G+ n7 L9 Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ t. b. p7 l2 w* i$ F% L# L8 [# n
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 m/ r1 y4 S4 B+ Zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ e b: B$ ^# S, i5 s1 p
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
1 ~# w! m4 b: ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 w% W, W. L: D0 @" I
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ \5 E4 h- W+ K/ n5 G6 e: S) {unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* O# U, K `/ U% ]
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# W7 T0 g. H; g1 X
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. ~2 O* E: n6 j4 T+ _2 gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# R1 U& C+ F/ w+ y' ]2 O# g
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 i* D# u1 C$ t( N0 e
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ M" x+ c6 P8 e1 |0 m( ^( n* T# f- KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. E! b E0 b9 w& O) l# a
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 Z, O9 Z/ i! X2 g. UAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( a" b1 l+ z1 I4 ~
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 V( |+ _+ b5 C- l" r, R+ v( N$ Wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 x: T* b: g2 v2 n4 Uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& H( ~$ a- B$ K2 S. ^9 S& l5 hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* [: {$ V. F1 {$ O0 m' r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) k; c, |& s# S2 E) ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 z1 D0 w; s( U S, T
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 L: j/ Z& t& e. a5 lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ w7 I' ^$ ~' d+ w* |, S, J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: R. C$ c% O$ c/ @* u) zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# h& V; C; Q3 c% s6 sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ K$ n8 y! H# ^' P. _% s) V% O
leg down over 2009.
5 O+ W }7 I9 z9 J6 O+ w7 [' ^! x- [. e
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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