 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
9 z0 m: W. k; tWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" U: i+ x4 {( G* F# ^, Wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
E& j+ p7 s% \are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% x/ S; u! R. J2 S( x, [2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# I) Z7 n: K$ G' ?+ bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided$ d6 ^- t( g1 U
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 |& B3 ?( I; k6 N5 l/ I" i
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' }9 ]. h; D. @9 y
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" u9 h4 j' d( h/ a( Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# M1 ]" y! M* o+ C: Oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! n* M7 E3 k) f& D, K/ Cto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' h3 X7 \$ T- N A9 M9 b
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! f0 H m: ]1 b6 Y8 V J, W ?1 lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* R; j% z' c1 c1 ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 Q. {3 x; S+ j& O+ @- G30,000 new households will form in the province during: N; E& L6 q' O$ e- a3 I; A8 n
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 h+ B" M: Z% ~; k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! }8 o* J' f) `9 S0 k y: ?
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& q2 t8 u& F5 X2 s" E, }
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ K, S. F+ ?9 M& j% x0 E; p
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! i" u3 P4 ]% h) nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 Y- d! [" D/ _
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 x8 ]; q% x9 H+ q& g+ j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
1 ]7 z- R3 d9 {; j) h" X0 Hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# ]3 }) y8 h2 D" _3 H, e( |2 t6 K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& c" D5 p" u2 C3 w o3 \1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# G! i/ J: d, R9 s9 E" N& Asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# b! N! m& J0 t* p( R6 ~
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 G, x3 ]5 D- X& x* H
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" r& p% T. g0 w+ ~" zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 V \2 S& d) Yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& w; u" `1 t5 C4 }! `recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- A; ^( U! w! w, C! O6 x3 I6 I2 Cresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* p5 H1 k5 t' @) P: b Y5 ?major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ p* Z& i) d6 }* e' O
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- `0 l" l- L, q, `
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 z2 L, o- \6 y3 G
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: w A6 s5 B3 P' S5 a0 H+ Y! K
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 W! H" I* Q, Y7 X1 ?Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
. u; F% c% P8 b, q. Khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) A# g1 H7 J8 a( p0 R. r- f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 w+ Y. _1 W1 H* nprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. M# m! v( I. I
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
$ o" M! Z0 T6 u0 @" von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
1 R: }9 I5 M+ ~1 p: LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 L. Q# m" w9 y5 k4 J9 Q" w
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 `/ ?6 Q) a& Z3 V) L, H9 R2 _, b
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 c u @8 r: h/ [5 U! l
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* h2 k2 \; e8 F
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 P, {$ D& x, w) E+ f [Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%& X6 v2 n" J+ [9 ~+ E
leg down over 2009.
$ _4 @7 ?7 _1 \. k* W3 H* Q! H8 i+ W {9 c4 b
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|