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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 E2 D) H# ^7 A( fWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" A1 B S5 D# Uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 T6 T. |8 s; _4 u" pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- a- `6 F. B' B& E2 o
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
" B! V: O0 P& r @$ ]- dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# U( T1 f. o; |- K9 I8 `. L+ {/ J& Tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& V) c) { q; n8 r/ pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. |( Q9 @5 {/ |
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 k) d' |, v3 B% L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! \& x+ p/ X ]7 t! ?0 n2 g' F
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; T! l6 u. |1 D4 [4 F
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year v" c- }0 N* y( S' s* T
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 d, h% k* U4 w* X$ l4 pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; T& _1 M& J/ s9 `+ e6 ^' g/ V
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 t l8 s4 _: R! P$ S; y% T
30,000 new households will form in the province during
" K. T+ U( c2 \2 }+ A& `2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 L. ], O( M- F! ~& A# m; \8 D
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! n( o, A, i8 c: k0 W7 dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ Z: h) K# s7 h7 fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
~" H( S8 m$ V, k4 Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 o, J' x+ L2 R2 ^, E7 f& }
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- C2 O" A5 J: v% ?
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 z' t- w" ?- s8 c1 Z9 Dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. s3 B" R- l" S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' D# {/ |; t, g8 H O9 b& ]0 W- g4 s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) n0 \' {1 i# L
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% U% B$ k6 I: x( g, o$ vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, {, @6 y3 Z6 A: e" vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& }0 C( E6 u/ S( b2 ]! x0 B% f2 x
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
5 @0 M# I$ Z; @7 k5 }unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ ? [& k7 Z0 y' _& I3 }
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, r+ j0 E3 `7 o. Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! n: ~$ c( W7 H5 M) n3 mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, ]( p# ^( w2 r: {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 }5 z" L, i4 Z* |2 aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! ^. q/ N: ~% H! F% s
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.2 {/ v2 d* j0 n4 E4 d
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
( b3 p1 t6 C5 p3 pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.( P! `% ?8 D. D; ]
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! H0 |3 l. [9 R+ L1 @' i& Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& V& r" k$ n# x, I' L' T$ a [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
* z) L# V/ A, l/ Bprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 W9 O+ q; P0 ? p) k2 U! Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) s! v O9 I4 W4 ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 R6 f! K* K1 k5 |! b3 I9 k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average4 L0 ]) r0 B! Z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
$ M* O/ C5 J5 ~, l0 r: r Rexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 x5 N7 M2 P% d* H" P9 L) x. E' O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 _. k7 L1 @/ `( @$ d) ?
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: A. g6 ~; v' m% |8 q& Z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: a- d6 S. \8 f
leg down over 2009.3 P3 H' M4 k% q0 \
) ^$ j+ b9 m, [3 d5 R
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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