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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta4 X, B" o8 L/ x. N5 p
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its% x; z- w/ m1 b1 c# h- z' U4 x, O
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ r6 H) ` v' n2 B( l. n* mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
_; l8 \1 l: w6 E* H1 w) p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! v' y8 q! F3 Z: Q# k9 H; mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 _. G% `5 g0 \* H5 E( Q8 Ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 I$ R; Y z) e3 `
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* a- |) b0 l& Z$ y3 Ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous. R8 p; ]6 A, K
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: h7 u0 }! ~$ g8 c, f, E, r7 bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; w, i6 h a5 ^" C0 h, @to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- |! K9 X$ M: C/ m; u' x4 {prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% I4 e* a' L" D- c2 dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 N, E( v; t) p: ~; U0 v# @
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 V- x* z" r/ U9 x) X% r% Q30,000 new households will form in the province during+ |+ H) c! ^* L- d/ `' v
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. J3 Q+ G( b; g D: {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# x; z" w6 O. E9 ^( D& w" g4 b" |homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 x' b, g+ L& x5 f5 Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ z$ L$ Q: K+ S/ bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 v; t' U7 E5 |4 V+ X0 Ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 r" _8 ^; S$ Y0 r1 `" ]during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ m8 t. J* d5 Z3 Z! ]5 v% isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 N! ?+ I0 X* w2 ^; v; Kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! _8 I0 @! m& g9 Nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. f$ [4 w6 s$ O% e6 i1 |1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 H! g" p( M9 F6 \. [+ t Zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- r( [; m2 X9 b) c9 ^. Q6 y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, C) q7 h1 ~. A3 C
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 I5 b7 B; D7 M& |, o3 A$ @unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 ?$ K6 i! E, Sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ r$ I* O/ T$ p6 m% h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: l/ C& r! }: \: u& V$ k/ M: ?
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 Q4 k+ X1 |5 d1 _% I7 R- Z, l& D
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ g* j+ H' e1 @" u, L$ l1 H! F
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled" t, `" `# Y: Z3 W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., `0 o3 N8 ?7 i1 O: ~
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 T" _ k3 e8 S I0 dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.1 V2 u# |' A6 _; `' V0 P
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
/ r' D0 ]6 C# y0 thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
8 y% j: i& I4 h' f- Urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ c% i0 A+ p' Qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 g- v8 E& [$ S9 A" |* ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; H4 Q# M$ _: k0 R# r E
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ h# N7 E$ R' a# Z$ e
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! X* p) b- T8 S, jresale price in February is evidence that past prices* Q" `* G) A$ e# r6 V: O. w
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% m3 Y/ [, q: b8 g. Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 O. B. g; `( M! }9 o8 A0 R
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) s' s' I4 x+ SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! C2 o5 ^' Z4 F8 V/ y4 I5 @1 rleg down over 2009.6 B4 o; k; p2 m" N0 B4 \& L' J
; c9 t. Z9 ^9 }' ]; G9 f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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