 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
1 }. x! B, k e" L) b4 _) m% FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 [/ X; l. ~+ M$ ^boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ c" r x0 c8 ^: f: C" D. gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
7 S. W- p: n7 r# T$ ^, ~2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. N' D$ k ~- X1 w6 R( H+ m8 hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% u" P* d ]* ?3 j. f1 efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 M4 K0 T# q+ fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- s- P) T9 q& ?0 L3 ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) y) s! p( F5 [. |, C; E* L
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 p) j4 r# o+ O6 X& v
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" M l9 O) Q* x; E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 y$ \4 B% E% L( {1 ?. s! yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
3 S1 v4 z1 i' e" s6 L9 L% pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' i! ?0 A8 V. a# N) q% g
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ e- \. S. K! x* ^8 @30,000 new households will form in the province during! [ T2 e) s% l6 R; r k
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% [3 P( e# \. S8 r9 A$ }' }% x
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) s5 n1 i, N0 E% w& j/ zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%/ F" C3 W' E/ {5 `: l. v/ t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* r0 U0 f' ~/ ^# f
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 b# a: }4 N4 D H& p
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" [3 y. p/ v. i6 I5 X( u6 X
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
' A( _+ c* r% ?. D1 @sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) a, b! U: z) Eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. L, {8 h1 k: d3 Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ k/ E+ j2 q% O' r% }. v% \1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ h& M I& Q+ P. Wsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) R/ O8 X* ]7 n w. s* R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 ^4 Y' u+ v& V# O1 J! l
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, i. C% y+ c% j7 punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 s9 S- u; ?. m
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* M; w7 ?1 y9 H# P
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 I: s# y0 E5 }resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 s! @2 x( \# O+ _3 U% _
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 f% J. ~% ]2 I" X! Y/ c* W
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 }6 \7 w) w! i/ I, ~0 J h
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 H1 g/ R' m2 B& K2 |( v# l" ~The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
' [5 n5 X b* O- r8 r) @boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 G- N; \' S0 c# @- Y- _4 G5 s
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan: [( a: E9 I9 X0 h4 i/ q% B8 D; x
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' }+ c6 C Y+ a) l( u
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, Q# Q! p$ B) E9 w! A; C- ^prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, K( k% O- j/ y8 gthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. D1 I" u% v& r. R' D# u; X
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% [! e0 G5 S% W1 e+ r* s) Z$ P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: o7 ~' U Q$ F2 ?) K1 b/ c
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 ]- q, C7 B8 r. nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 ]4 x- W) ?4 J* thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* R# V% O' `' j: K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( D8 h2 r9 v5 I M% E& }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 M# n! R' B' l9 t; x5 V" Aleg down over 2009.6 i: Q# E, b5 s
9 N* h. O2 z+ ~) [6 k3 `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|