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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 E4 C& r, M2 I' A9 h0 g# FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 e2 N# G. [* C, Z1 d" G
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ f+ ~0 a2 [' p; o- C. a" Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# p) c* v/ p. J+ c, D/ Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! k2 n* Z9 T3 ]3 G% q oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 _' w& Q; G8 U8 x
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 m$ [8 r6 P2 f3 w1 W2 [the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ t1 ?4 c _( {. O+ g8 ^% _; gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% o7 C! v" k& G$ U+ V& ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 g- @5 A. l8 ^& l2 V2 \( W1 @7 _precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* o- C. t5 N4 a( k5 V0 h7 p: n
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year% e- i, Z9 d" L2 j3 ^
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) i3 p# n4 N! F" K/ Pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ S# }! K1 ]1 _3 G I; v% [homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ E! K( x! y* _# [
30,000 new households will form in the province during
9 e1 q* r* E+ ?2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
2 c# ]* A2 J# v) C: o* f" IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ D3 d% o$ b: Z- B s) phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 t S9 ^* T. t* R8 O+ s
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! C5 s0 H* \3 n- ]* |% @0 V
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 Z* k3 j. g3 L. {4 ]
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' k6 J D6 [/ |9 w" v ]1 R, p7 aduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 [' G5 S& q+ m) l3 J( H9 }sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 x; k8 J( F" }9 M( f4 G8 jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
/ W# q) j( G# `& Dexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! l6 j/ T( x% v8 ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ P; J+ F" g" T' @: w% V6 t+ Y. _
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 Z8 V/ r% {. X4 V
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" `7 u8 j+ f9 J5 btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% w) M1 U# h1 x2 w7 F
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 p+ y, ]+ K9 @! `
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 m, a, ]. ?# K k* s# H
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ G: T& [% x2 b* [: w4 P, o, g0 U
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; d+ ]' D) d$ | d" T* ]! {! I2 w" y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 p( \1 X% I" P
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 z# Q3 w1 L3 l& @
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: y0 I4 `: R+ t/ i* a' LThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- K- Y3 P7 X* X/ u3 Y0 cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& a- R2 K- V: P" c' i8 qAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan* l% V5 s) c3 T6 W1 ` {; v4 V
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 C' L! L& M. g3 f) jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: @. n* a j4 k7 O7 g* M: Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even1 f8 m; N! x. w j- Q, n5 k
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# o& k- f# C% Z3 F
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ a4 f5 w0 G! Q, I4 _3 l N0 l/ g; Q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 W9 D) W4 h5 x1 n3 Hresale price in February is evidence that past prices
/ x4 P5 k& V2 x0 ~$ ^2 j. Texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 x0 K3 d4 {- {" z5 n: uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# Z9 B$ ]$ O! n" Y( h& h3 G
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% k9 F0 `& D- q2 E1 A) _3 ]: @
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 Q; b( G( i- {/ [4 P: O! rleg down over 2009.; }/ U" F b7 i" s7 w; i
! U9 V x) |+ x( p! g; v
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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