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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
$ u# T6 `. t+ g$ F& u6 p/ vWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 s& s; U: I. y, y. Y4 _
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 Z! Y5 J7 d1 K# q4 \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 V \6 F* F; A0 f+ i' V2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 I1 i& ~. c( v3 S
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) T0 J% t5 J5 M* t" Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,3 {" r4 b' b ]% H
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ G2 P: q; \: l: K: o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! k* D( N0 C7 T( Space of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, V% L" \% b4 z! C$ X& d" L
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' n' v* M! _! `% W* M5 k
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 R% u5 a7 k7 k* l2 A& ^$ V
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- j0 \+ Y2 O5 ]& D jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, W7 {8 k* z( Bhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# n# R; g+ y" ^; v30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 M3 [/ F- ]7 A1 R' ~2 G( ^1 ^. u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 t" b3 L: }: a, ^7 `- d6 vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 \6 F+ g- E# B$ u& u1 Ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 V% w. t, M# V. d4 L+ j0 Nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 B9 M7 E2 P. ~has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 f3 m: N3 c- p# X
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" w9 n d, M0 H0 Z- U a; W5 M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 ^$ u, H4 Y6 S" \: d9 K* ^2 z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# ~8 L/ [2 m9 x& B5 B0 b1 A9 pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is. B3 w2 u. G( ]7 Y: z0 W" F# \
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 Y! ~/ i R2 S. u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. M- S' G9 o6 c! i4 V2 v4 S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; t i& I- [ p" N: O; _9 k( i
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, y% F- m, G9 G# v' e0 Wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% U, b( P4 C' b
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 P+ Y( `# k# m# `# [
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! X. l( O' t' }$ A- z+ ~: J6 f
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& t+ v6 P, t) p, i% p5 X/ `$ U
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- S' M- O6 N0 @8 c7 vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 ^2 {! t) U- O* H# p9 I
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! l2 A7 x# \& E/ jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, x7 I. ?8 G4 K( HThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ }9 f) p6 I) E& L. a; _0 j6 ^1 c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& t* b; Z# L1 C* w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
' L2 [# V7 h% Y2 Shousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* E* D( ]) |, o+ N! drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 F0 ~$ D' o+ P5 N1 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even2 ]4 w1 A' A3 `7 E. }+ P @
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners3 A) P) T" K( `
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( K: L8 X) t) p$ z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average2 r( j( d6 ^: A) t R
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 X4 T5 W. y# x! U) q% nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 F2 s* m0 L0 }. ?9 F; Y+ w4 ]
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( ]) Z' H- u7 Q2 F: ]0 ?" f3 U! H9 O
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- P1 x: ^6 A$ M j: j! @- rAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. K* i7 D( N4 ^leg down over 2009.
5 d1 h1 D. I) t8 g+ Z* a7 y' b# K. t% m+ Y' T6 N" ~: u0 Y5 c: q
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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