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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." I7 B$ n# Z! f' d: X; ]9 M$ |
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. + w! m8 i8 p2 b& A% y- g! Y
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 9 d  s1 h: `1 ?

% j5 {- j" q1 X, x4 l# F% GNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.3 S+ c; I( k1 D, `5 b

9 P" G0 N/ b' {8 G& m1 d' RTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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$ _& G( N3 M! G4 g"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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, H4 ^6 r* H% i4 X3 x1 e, ZTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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& k; e  a. J2 W! z* q! k0 S9 STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes," n+ ]1 X* R' Y
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。* i$ ?( ?" T5 V% H; D( M
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。, o* [+ _- B9 A3 W. r3 l

( D* q7 U+ l- Z- V2 E) m9 Y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ) c* N' w. G& U& X( X" M8 {0 o5 P$ d
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

0 e2 q8 G7 p% @7 v$ U, F6 y% H0 v很多人都回学校深造去了) I! S- _0 z+ f) |
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 @+ K- l. Y* z1 `/ L/ h7 B9 l
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 _, m( I0 Q' F/ \boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
0 \6 O+ b( Z! ?$ k3 M  X  r8 care cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; W  A2 Q# p( i
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) O+ c: j0 G0 L' D! i: ], @
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 W1 z! W' a0 i0 x# e2 ]$ jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! i- y" y( S; `2 _1 I3 a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 O) K9 M! W, Q) K
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 J0 r  ]# B& G* c+ q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed8 K7 K4 l( Z' [- ^
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 G) |) [& N0 [% Z4 r$ y: p. C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year  k$ H1 f$ _& a5 ?3 T, T
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
  i# v+ |# u4 W/ k- pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,+ j' \2 t* q* D, x/ v) W- n
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! n: J. @% R! r7 H30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 a( e3 f5 B1 o8 b# Z' Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 A: p" M  E. G& y, _
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 t" h  B/ n0 whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: A4 e1 c" t* X# V7 {& q8 Zduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* \7 M( _7 N  H) o4 p
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 P9 H5 B; n+ N" z* n% vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 d, x4 ^2 |8 \2 B  d* }& x2 Jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 X! S/ Y. [  O6 S$ asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 ]  |, M5 v) x) x  e1 i- _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is5 H2 {- P! d6 B: n
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of6 `* A; m3 N* ?' ]4 \9 X
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' |; ], O  M) L# z4 ?! J: t) e
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive0 U, f5 H) l+ E, r( p( [
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 b3 p. |  A  K8 ?) l
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: Z( B9 z# F8 ~9 j8 N4 r
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 D8 A5 R$ T7 `0 r
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, h& n% t" W' l( s4 lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the+ z% z& s. D. n2 Z' ~! K
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" K+ |  @2 z, D0 P; |: vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ i& f0 Q6 t: F- P! Xof new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ Q7 m+ ^9 x5 d: B6 N: v2 @
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" U0 m" p8 w0 K( AThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 v8 `) y. H9 M3 }4 m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* l; l* O, R' q; a7 EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; o. d* Z& v" b  r2 @4 b+ n' Ehousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. e' M/ C" i! P# J. X7 I7 Z4 zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 X2 q0 _3 m5 aprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 L. w) s% b* |, a$ xthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. o0 V# T, G' r: J, h' R( von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ p, o, D9 h  |& f5 r4 k# M  VThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. h8 P- }1 d" }' \6 cresale price in February is evidence that past prices2 V  ^; w& w% a3 O' ?4 ~# j
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! r" C- R* P' l7 g  Dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 V+ b/ y6 M3 R$ a- p2 ^
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" R# [. I3 s4 V1 @& t* w  |* }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- |7 \$ f+ l8 O! }6 L: W. K  pleg down over 2009.
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( Z1 L2 U$ N/ H5 c" r& |; U' ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& p+ B+ _( A4 A2 ]2 t5 ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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- i: s1 Z+ X+ [+ V6 K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 3 B% k* ]+ \6 v  h3 k* @
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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- f& U3 o5 S* v$ x- [: Dhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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