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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.8 P' C; `  G% ?* {* t9 c

& ~! ?. w8 H5 [& k: ]TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ; x$ R: m- n) U& F5 Q

9 ^+ c% O8 l) W! j% l  o"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 s+ R% I+ u, ^4 z6 O8 n
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% h( e; i+ x5 y

- L: d6 z* m% k" pTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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7 R  }  s; g5 T+ g" _$ i8 y8 d8 RTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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' E' z4 T9 P* n- f1 EMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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* m6 D' T  K$ q' l/ l( d# Y[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。2 ^" j. h0 S/ h3 u) b! o
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % L/ v! F4 Y* o5 E
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: P$ Q( F/ n2 X  Y很多人都回学校深造去了
# a9 z2 p4 j8 v& m嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta, V& y) A  c3 y) Z$ f3 b3 _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 G; Q6 l, P3 ]5 Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, P  v! x" G/ l' \6 T$ q; u  r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 Y! ^9 t, M* N' }4 B! q2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- o( l, {$ ^6 Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: @' ]7 l; R. M
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 t: A' Z# e! qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& g2 k9 B: A- c$ h7 gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ S* F$ w2 P  y$ |* l/ @. v
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; F8 O. F5 e/ b( y# T) pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. x, o8 k" Q- b1 X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: n$ m5 B: s  P( c; I$ ~. G$ Dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. i9 W* o+ b5 k$ Q6 u1 z$ N6 k% ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- g) l6 f3 O% q2 X0 C+ X
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, G9 u& K& N, t7 G8 Y: V/ G3 j% {- Y% {30,000 new households will form in the province during+ B: N+ {+ u0 m$ D: v/ [
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- b: ~$ K% F0 m8 ~2 @; r" I
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 d  t! n+ E- M8 zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* u0 y, \# m$ x9 D7 B/ w3 d, {
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 w, X9 q, q9 `; }8 N  W" ]) z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new/ W/ f: F3 a$ M8 F6 w
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ q6 V1 }2 l% O6 l2 Z  q9 [during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ I# h% N" D5 l, m$ g7 esales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! Z  v. I* j8 `& B  P4 ^/ ^3 i* s$ Yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) y7 w; T/ ^* b0 Z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  n+ ?/ ^) E' V, q* T
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: a7 q1 \& v( J& ~, ]+ [sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 Y1 d# f; K  T/ l. Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ v! Q* v! C9 i' \5 ?# @* \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 y% h( |# `+ munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 @3 ]: Y# b7 Z' E1 Z0 Hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- j. [7 @) j4 arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ F9 a8 z' N8 C( X
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" g+ j" g( p7 e8 G" E5 Amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 {  r% b* w7 R0 J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled( [$ R4 `& j7 x0 h
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 |2 ^0 }! U& i" S4 a' N2 `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; x% r1 q9 i2 ^3 |/ sboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 a: @: S0 e% W0 B: V, u: q0 o$ F
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ u4 b* O, i# V
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" y8 h" i- }  F- G7 P/ S8 f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" W) U) B! _; @' l
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; X* S# {( y9 k) Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 }  R- m1 w6 C5 I0 C9 L3 V- {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* [/ N: O* E- r; V1 s9 {The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: i* g" W0 W+ ?9 a  N2 [% v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 p! V# b% |0 F4 D6 |) Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: I" Z# K- P2 }3 A( `! T4 n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 e) ^, r, F, M$ ?( K, B9 n  kdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% R6 W6 X* O- y# i. u+ yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' X, s* I3 F0 j! r- ?# [
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 }0 A, z4 W1 k+ E/ X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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7 Z! P6 h. c* r2 B5 y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. : y/ u( R9 p: d8 G! r
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子4 z4 U+ c) B2 _( |: B8 r
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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' z  T& l$ Q: _: F- ]6 z! d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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