 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' w" K: j% \0 CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! r2 m$ g# b }1 I7 O' [
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
" `, K, m- [1 ]1 Y% eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( h) b6 ]) X8 B- f( S3 `2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 t" z/ G8 D8 [5 ^0 r, g0 \0 P$ W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 J' o/ @$ Q1 z B/ f% L3 p
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ F1 }) X: B1 Z' \2 t
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 j$ M' A* M- b+ X2 j7 t3 cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; u+ e7 G7 C6 P# L$ U# ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% x: u2 P/ [/ {precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( }' u% y; o, x' o8 Z( E/ \8 j' Ato 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ E6 q* y6 L+ G; _$ I3 C/ rprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- k; _9 W( S4 v1 {% p$ X) K- ~
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- j. d/ f0 b8 l; t8 x7 J
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 p0 E: W8 k Y- f30,000 new households will form in the province during/ Q% e1 x! T: W3 B
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; m0 R7 g- P1 z5 C- W) h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 K0 f9 m1 Y9 i" Q- L$ nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%9 T* O; t& f( }6 l3 @7 Y% g
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. H% K7 h3 [4 C) |' d6 M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 s+ r/ D! s" K. {# ^households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( m% r1 H' Q/ c; K3 \
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 a) ?5 K* t( x- z. y% F7 Y. X
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. l6 Y$ D) H7 [6 h, aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
3 W3 Y1 q/ o8 ~1 j$ Eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& b+ _& W6 _+ q+ J# G1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' [- @; k! x1 ~/ @- a+ L8 P* k5 osales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: Y P0 d! k x8 t
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 y7 H2 r/ ]7 {0 |7 ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) n; W) ~+ d, w9 P+ p5 l
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 R T8 g( ^: P. j4 W0 o" d* x
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% V' Z9 F3 d" p
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& r- C: b, M' @
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' Y' T5 ?! x$ R$ U/ k5 Rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* _% x, q* ^ Z8 B. O* o, Q8 uof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 T; p& M& E I, Prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* |4 r2 e* ^0 f0 KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 d4 l% v: c% ]% Xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% F; O6 l' E7 B- H- t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
; i9 G; `( c+ ^' Y# vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( q# `; V. J6 _0 U: o
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale' t6 P0 C( A7 E. r |. I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even+ D% {% i( |# p8 R! O1 G
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! v" T, n9 p( s0 I" qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* ^1 {7 ]( C! M
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
2 v) r, s) @6 i: ~. A$ Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices. W% }6 F& q7 @$ S2 T7 u
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 I1 g& H0 l% c2 f* chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 h6 F" J W. N& E) G* Y; Ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 n1 [* G, j$ [3 {# M5 }# CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ S, u1 T! Q2 @( }$ T3 s1 Uleg down over 2009., U. Z ^6 W' N
b% i$ J- ]/ M# }/ G( ` t: }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|