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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 J* f( a) P3 j2 f9 }
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
5 d( X* d/ L. N3 I8 B5 k. Uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 ?# I L' J1 R0 f" Y6 w/ Fare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- r7 c/ s: C1 D" M! @7 g, N; T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 g% z- q. z0 x$ {3 I% qformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided- V$ N x' n( v3 ]5 Z0 F
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,3 ^* n$ x2 t. H V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- E+ y p- x0 c
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 I& a$ |/ e* L* epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ `) D0 G9 Q8 C! fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined( ^/ a( ]3 k* C& k% k ]
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 ~' S& O( M# Y1 _
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# E' @, p) W- g+ s4 Tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; g& w2 w1 c3 u) o X8 j' g) c W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 u. w! W' s: N7 T! T; o30,000 new households will form in the province during2 ?0 e' u1 n& E7 I' D1 o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' v9 R; X* c$ PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s z* ^. D# @5 \/ ~# S
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 P" c3 N8 \% A' u N F
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 ?/ i% V6 E ~( U1 n
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# m+ {* S( v1 v |! ^9 S2 F
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals W- Z _) Y$ N; f6 |
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) i! i# E. R0 T6 g
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! u' g P" w" j x1 d1 e xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" o( q. r! y9 Pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# }7 U( P) o9 e
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 H: @* g* F, H: v( j7 Osales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- }+ c# f) F& S- p) X3 ?% U" wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' S7 S& V) n. z8 ~5 y# @" b- |two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
{/ M( T9 C: X$ [unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 B* j2 z+ R' y& h8 {unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* r* \; G8 @, ^! L/ urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& c) u }; v2 x, x
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s }2 Q6 i0 f( R$ } F
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 k0 B/ s9 C9 c
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 s1 m2 m- e+ P
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% L1 {* q) m/ x8 f2 F8 _The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 k" _6 O0 j" q: [
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 s! U) s; \$ G8 F9 YAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan3 b+ d9 K) M% w2 Q5 W5 H! W
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* ?) U, [9 B, l: |
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! j3 j9 a, W8 P
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; d" G9 l& w0 a3 rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- x& o* f) l* d3 Q: Q6 t
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." E# X, Y" V" \- S; _. T
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 Q q" r3 c, z1 x& b
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# R+ Z. M ^! H1 c- D8 ?exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, ~9 P) O+ ?' o& phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 k& R! q5 l3 Y) F# adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# B, K; g! ?3 t' k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
$ w. {, |% ]. Y% g" }: eleg down over 2009.
' {( i4 m9 r8 f4 c5 \# ^
% ?. c, h5 x' E8 u! C+ a! G' j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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