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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta4 n7 X/ N! O% A0 ~1 Z3 x
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) a6 o/ r" `* Z# w6 C) O: x2 mboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 u- J$ p. |" w6 nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
v0 N" I6 \, N# k/ L) w2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% s4 s% u0 H- q: |. v
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided D( U5 b' f- T2 f
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: P$ ?& @, M6 y1 |the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 x H0 m5 C1 _" a4 @
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
0 B. m/ k, M/ c$ e& tpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: r2 l: m$ L/ ~1 F9 \) Y Z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 a; ?( p- U9 zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- _4 `# ]1 d/ G# `prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
+ L. m; ?! q- q: }* B( Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
3 X5 d2 `/ t& I( whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 I! ~. ^; Q3 C( b$ M8 M2 [30,000 new households will form in the province during% C# ^2 B9 w1 ?5 w5 K! d5 [) D
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) q; f3 Q; ]) O; `* t, `Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" E ^; y* y0 T6 [: V# f4 f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 p" g7 x! K" q1 w4 W" Xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 ~* ~2 p( B- c$ |1 v& F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' V8 h+ b# z5 W: c. m. n! C0 _9 H; k
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" p( Z+ }& A# F; a1 gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging! z% b4 D v- b8 u8 R( {" g9 G
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& U( ?! a0 t1 [2 |8 V; ~. J) g* ]" f' n( kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 K, b+ k4 a& [7 H$ p x. K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
[ q7 t, \. W* j! |/ f; w1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ B7 x& |1 @' ^# C, ]* ^5 ?: |sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 Y a4 C4 X4 f: l: q: D- k8 Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 @5 T6 ]6 L! |& S! W5 \two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! x& n2 W% Z+ J6 v/ U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7473 C( @2 ]+ o g
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
, e8 l+ Z$ Q. X3 P1 d# G4 F9 Rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 \9 e2 {* e" R* a3 c l, R# jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) M- }5 D6 |! k6 R6 O3 ?
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 D2 B4 t# _" r9 |: o
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ B3 d' w: J( P. T6 i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* A" h9 }& H; _! q: S
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. G% N; x' v- }' Uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.$ L7 f2 z8 h2 g A& R0 u
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! h+ w4 ]. o; O6 S$ J$ |' Ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 A6 y" p/ @& G2 {8 Urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: @3 g' }$ T, \) _0 ~9 Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ z- c7 c0 d5 c8 S$ q, {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( a- G0 t, \+ U% j7 {, \9 W
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ f* {8 `' p2 l2 d' a# ?" IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, _: v' ~' r" G6 I. A0 }resale price in February is evidence that past prices# H2 {3 ]7 I% N( ?( X2 M4 D8 y; U
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; D$ u5 J3 h3 G0 uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ p6 {. R# L* K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& ~# z. x& H; G2 t, Q) f4 W& a9 y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ I. z+ {, j( L, ^+ E% b
leg down over 2009.( i9 d$ ?2 @0 m1 ^
" Z- s- L9 D# B
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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