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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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8 q9 x0 R- S3 `3 L1 l- I) ?TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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9 F, N2 D/ A) R* o8 Z  \$ W"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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' A$ `) |$ D0 {7 U0 x0 h5 b4 kNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.4 ?' k2 \7 g. v- x
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.( ?0 ^1 \8 a; y: A

* j0 p( s: Z5 Y$ t% [, H- H$ d"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.0 n- t6 q2 G; W9 z; t/ H0 N1 \8 K

. ~5 _: c% x: f% ]Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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2 o! n6 q! z# P% `7 O% qTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! U5 Q8 Y. i$ b0 D, U5 V

2 Z" A. ^. [& [  y2 Q7 H& J" \8 F[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' k/ C. a- ~( I- ~
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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; U6 w0 k: v, y7 e[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
: ~* e1 M0 w0 ^6 f跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

1 m) r. d& \$ h  Y1 G. O4 C很多人都回学校深造去了# g- |* D* u+ m6 l6 |& q  m
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta2 J: g) h7 J* y* {
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) v6 n) ]& k* y# B9 L: V+ Mboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' Y0 n! B* l0 J* \: e' M9 ]are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 \6 D- x4 _  J, w- `; H$ }# Z& H
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 L: _- H) [4 E* C: C; Rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
3 X% s  `3 k+ m1 q/ ]: }from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," O+ c6 s  y3 ]8 z* O) a4 q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; a7 r; B) ~) t( P3 U; `' a
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- `0 v, Q  ~7 P0 f# x- [9 lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: N0 y9 }2 W1 K, e" Y: Y2 t7 A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 A) `6 Q! E; t8 _8 T. Z. Lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 H& ]( j" D& B4 @% ^2 o, uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' Z9 ]2 H' v4 z& h8 P! r7 {% S
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 h& S: S- s0 S& [, h) _
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% r% u; M- g+ |30,000 new households will form in the province during5 G# C- R9 D4 ]6 V6 H
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! x* T9 Q9 {( t' W6 lEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# x2 w% g* n( H  F; Y* m' mhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 u% ^4 K9 F9 O4 L! \1 vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta% C! n+ o/ B& x1 h
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new, u% x) q8 o2 c. [7 ]
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 K% ~$ f7 O; ^
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, h  f  d- L2 m- E4 g2 p9 R8 P$ H) nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories6 N& C9 B# b2 l$ z) J
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ I  n6 @. B/ Z1 P& O
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, ~, W( a+ V' n1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a  C0 F- N+ W: v- b9 a- f9 [  A
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: J/ d! \7 {% u' n$ L) l
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' l7 R1 ]$ u, v7 u+ Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ M. h% t6 @1 m0 X  J: J3 Iunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7470 b" D7 p6 }$ w
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! V. V# h. V6 ]3 Z/ J. R
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 _( I- q# C/ Xresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 i! d4 V& {- @3 @% Q/ ]  E/ i5 vmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: \& Y- x+ ^+ R# F% V; {+ i; f' k) U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
/ i1 C' }* p& A8 A6 f( q% Lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
# c1 |' L5 k) m/ nThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! `' F2 x& Q2 l3 Q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 [, ~& o- p! }8 w
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 p5 Y9 K* j3 u$ \; H9 d  g. I, zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" U3 w# P, c2 I$ N" {  r( v/ O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 k" E; O6 P, b8 uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 [* o, S% ^! [. g5 i* e6 ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& B" n  {$ {, U7 T5 c! Y9 d7 B5 s
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ J1 L+ Z% W! w8 |The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 _. Q+ [9 j+ s; n
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! U3 g( o1 l  }, Z5 ~exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& H, b, N4 V: s' w3 S2 g8 \homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
% G; q8 k3 ?! h: x" Bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% z9 ?5 D& B9 ~& u# NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, A) _# W. b4 k: ~+ x9 M+ M
leg down over 2009.0 z6 N; T0 ]/ T# W

# h- X" C, R. B0 g[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# ]% i$ s) f! W4 K' I9 }Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 0 F' Z8 ]9 r9 L6 I6 X" x/ }8 ~
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子: j# j1 E/ D- C: B0 w0 |" Z
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments* U1 D: T* ~2 u' ]4 H2 d
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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