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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
+ H# k* r" j' O9 F' NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; K' z8 p6 O- p4 n oboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! h2 J0 b* y- O# Z6 i% v' A. dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: E! m9 h3 I, Y# y% k- k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household7 g3 l5 ]: ^/ ?! f, ^
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: U* ~: y$ I6 \/ w- w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# {, X: R, a6 l; Z) Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 w) B1 ^$ ~" b" n
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! ~6 K/ l6 l9 d4 _. fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 F) n0 E& r- Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" ]/ i9 u( O" S% g
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% a, f/ R* J% e( sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# I( T4 b" S0 ]5 g: I( B# ^' `3 ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 g5 z8 f" F1 {homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ a; a0 j2 ]/ Y: G
30,000 new households will form in the province during
) O, G7 N( V9 x- B( i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! l8 v1 ?2 W+ i" BEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 c1 U1 D8 d8 W/ s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 K/ ]. b2 y6 O$ H( U4 v6 p
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 ^. A5 ?, j3 b2 ~8 phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( z: l: H1 V1 m, ]0 D7 C
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& {2 O- w7 i% T+ O1 }
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging3 z6 B9 e* G% P H6 V
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 t' y F$ f) L2 S% R, b1 K. V
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! w! J4 i" ~0 a; N$ b3 Y2 ~
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 m) _: _* `: r* N: {! v0 H/ i1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, k& Y4 I! j3 S: S i3 zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& g9 \+ P; I/ `+ C% ~3 z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# p, K" D) v- U& Q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( E1 m7 {4 D4 r5 W- Vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: x* i, U, ]* f0 M# c( ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 H8 _ g" X$ h" j) `4 e/ A( ?
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 j7 z$ C {/ P, ~* a) a# a" I
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 z+ H5 P$ a+ `, k& g9 G0 _' b, Q8 T
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% v- ^; N" I! yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 `% j" u% F* ~# p" xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ ^3 L/ r& ]* q4 A- `" C; W! T! i3 _
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* t1 N' e) ^7 {! uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 o+ ^% }7 P* f6 y+ c0 ~2 LAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan0 O2 }# k9 a" b4 Q. }( j9 i
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
- R7 }7 L# s& k) u' ?relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 ~( H0 y( Q" h* w/ i8 [prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, e0 k/ l6 l* W3 q9 w& E7 O z5 athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# |% W* Y% v- ]3 b6 r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 N$ l/ L, p( j8 I' S" m6 o8 O1 Z2 ~The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. a h y) |2 W5 R
resale price in February is evidence that past prices) Z5 v9 X# f- n8 X( ~
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove B8 M& i0 l# G; ]3 E& Z
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 l `8 E3 \# g% a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ u. o: R, ^, F0 HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ O8 _# G5 e, R4 xleg down over 2009.( A4 p) v z' t
. l( W$ I/ v9 N1 ?8 g- x
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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