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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 z" ~- I$ K8 G9 ^0 a' e. |$ EWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" S; T6 f0 R' M/ x: L) }' m% Qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 S" i$ `' E6 w9 o( X1 Z. f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
! X7 {0 [! _0 k9 Q4 N+ V) I2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) i- r3 j+ B% B, G" @formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 e/ s0 q8 n# Y1 E- C8 w' A+ V- Jfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 m" ~" ~+ \2 Q# R, Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. l7 z+ X* b* e+ Z; K) _* C$ {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 L1 _$ l, Q9 r! G- @( U/ h gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed* x# Y" o; B n/ o1 z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% i1 B f7 e0 S" L# hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! w7 y% z9 Z- L) n$ u" D3 r- `- G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' P/ J9 y! [1 R# b( x1 O1 ^year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: i' L* U: \$ M, x; d: ]$ ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 V/ i% ]2 ~% ~; T0 W! g# b! g
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 {" @- P3 q9 x* n3 n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ B0 z3 K, {& L, S
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ l. G4 j5 G; Qhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ C9 D7 I$ H1 yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta z1 Q: r! r( b; t9 a5 r3 W5 g+ |
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 M! z4 J/ w9 U' k* xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 k4 o* d) I% o- {# u0 F" E2 Tduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 a5 [) \4 y) N) J9 b
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& i. {! V. o9 P! y: Dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( S K- J T: d. Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 `9 o' ?- B/ g2 @1 s. X1 f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& L6 k# d2 O% _' `' L; b% J5 rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! M7 K6 i7 H% g% v7 G$ Abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; A# N( f0 K7 q K' c
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& q I$ E" N8 k% a5 [! a
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747 h8 M* m* {: D
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 }3 ^' m# ]6 l( A& ^4 z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 q" b: F n2 C- R! a1 D
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ V. v. q. m# n7 s2 N, g; H# umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 k6 w3 d. v1 @& G$ G, X8 n
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) V8 W K* u3 C" s. P. p0 mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
) S+ V9 ]4 F. c* E/ e, s. `1 TThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: Y( b) x# V* S+ V. r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# t" a" c$ S$ f# R# b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 B& P7 W0 n: P1 [
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ g4 i( b5 n. [2 T( d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" _+ g: ~1 `) w
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ p! X2 B! C% e# kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 `: {% n$ r1 P2 S8 ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 v+ @9 O# N# TThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 f+ [8 |8 U( n" t% ~' P6 k
resale price in February is evidence that past prices8 Q. r/ R6 d+ J: Z; Y6 C
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 L' [% n) b7 v: E* ?, Q7 f: X$ @homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 X5 s, D# `! \" [6 _, N$ ^deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ q, |: {5 F6 Z) g3 JAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ `- G0 K/ r0 \( }* Q$ q
leg down over 2009.% O! n8 V% i' T8 @ w3 J
) v; e0 _$ j% n& }/ Y8 Y( y* {
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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