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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta9 J+ }5 r( x, Z' m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& [+ e3 k" U$ f) R) m# ~# s! mboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; H _& ^4 q+ }1 X) J
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' X8 W; y5 [( u" {, o2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 H- @1 p% S) A) {5 [formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- F, x, G$ c8 a6 r5 G! r% Q& Yfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' M: g. `" K+ R4 k& Z5 V* rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ K. v' m* f; g
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 n% ` E5 }/ A$ A' Rpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 J0 U: N9 _. I: a2 \+ M( Uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- Y) @/ Y0 m6 t$ Tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 i5 w* _& Q: s0 G, C: i& g2 _' iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. H7 z# G- f( ^) [2 H: ?6 j4 h9 syear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' P. j# X6 i" X0 \8 W0 t7 B
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ N) ] f% \ l. k# X( g30,000 new households will form in the province during Q1 y9 U7 g% Q3 T7 o; D$ X
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& X" [, n# G" m$ _
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 b6 M r, B7 i! B7 T) j6 E# Zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# \ h) \/ V+ d5 Z9 s
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( ?6 `) m- n O7 Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( [0 c/ S2 D) s c* g2 ^' o) R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
( Q' I1 r/ i- Cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 k$ z+ V) u7 o. c8 A" `/ W
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& I0 k7 d+ I: Q( x& f. \
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 ~' ^) @- c& g7 T% W ~9 c- \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ N& P; v9 v* A' D
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% l- H' J3 K7 e/ y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, S1 q( p% K# F5 B* d+ W% M0 H
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ @+ o6 p0 g) V) f) ~
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. {6 J; w- `9 z- S9 R e# Xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 ^! }8 @5 E% w. C* q- l# ^. K1 gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 P9 s4 S+ o9 U( Z E, S/ w
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ U E* P9 R7 p& D$ X4 aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. s) d0 P' J$ B6 z2 J; S
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 B6 a ?( S0 W4 E4 a
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 ~, D3 F' z$ I. x0 \9 u& c# h$ h
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( d( ^6 \0 w U/ g
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 R$ C: z/ n: Yboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.: }! b T! x6 q7 X8 m) A
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 |" ]- K& l5 V( j9 Khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced( ^" b4 T+ N4 @% i, m
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale/ P2 c L. @; M7 ?& @+ y3 c2 g8 A
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' H( b4 |. V, i+ |6 K4 Z, o
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 K. ^4 [7 Y" c! s, son average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- C1 F4 h2 q4 o# \
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 Z n/ J+ y& q* |
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 R) p K& g5 n$ x/ d+ Pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove2 G( ~4 H {/ M4 W, \; F
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 _% j" L! q5 r3 D8 q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( K" U# E5 E/ u- k3 f% z L* cAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
. a, Q! R1 P! b4 ~, Qleg down over 2009.
: [5 l- r% o* D0 Q" \ v
7 k+ ^2 ~/ \* q' X$ C+ m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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