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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta6 N- F( s5 M5 p2 _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
1 l+ G9 B8 w$ d( J! _boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' J. ?5 j& |2 P1 ^; c$ q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- K4 N* w. A; M# M8 P
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; Y/ g" Z: y# E1 V& Z0 u- F3 Q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
" W2 c [6 w. b) E b" @6 Xfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 @# J, r# K3 H2 d+ J3 P. z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! \+ ~$ u/ p4 D& w2 c
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 z: v" b: v [) _
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed8 W# |/ o# [& K$ [
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- \; Z* z$ H$ G8 G5 l" Q2 N% C7 F% }
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ x' Q' G) w! J8 F) N% s
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this1 t A/ Z D. Q3 ]" }% d \. ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( @2 C6 b8 D P" D$ g/ d. {2 ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. i% |% U8 j6 B" Q. {
30,000 new households will form in the province during6 W8 U$ Y! G. U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 w" ^2 L8 `3 Y: O' I; R ^Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 i [! D: d6 P; a" S' s3 ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 W+ d! @& d7 S% }7 D9 cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 U" ]$ c& Y6 P; @has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" T& b" B4 ^0 c; ^2 B9 ?6 l2 nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
- o" a0 j4 k( f7 iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 `4 Q* \' B3 y2 Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! ?! |4 z9 _! ~0 D1 i
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% L8 J5 o/ I& `excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; F4 R S/ H0 z7 r. ~% _' |) M
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) e, a9 s- t: ?: K- p- ^4 F
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive k+ |, C. ^5 \7 D2 q9 M
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in% b% A* K7 d' q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" j7 P5 ], e; e: Q6 b) H5 z8 }
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 d6 B R2 ?: K1 T9 D' k
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 O& E6 g. p2 d$ b. X
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 }8 h6 p2 M$ Z, W) A# y8 n
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 a/ i% S! x! [ `) y4 z# Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! g! K8 }% A7 ~. [of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 ^% ^( K1 R6 }; crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 D% k0 W$ `& }$ G7 x) o6 L
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) C; Q; ~4 W3 I* j; k4 gboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 n/ l8 E' v8 h7 ^* V4 n
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 C6 x( F7 V- }) ^) q8 R% yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! h$ @2 Q; p: Grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; r5 H; z# f3 o1 R2 {* n# X$ ?* T4 Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 A! P! k6 N8 u4 n5 M* [4 V
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, X+ D3 n6 k: N; \7 u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% l, \7 t2 |. y' r- x; C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; d! |2 j' c0 P6 q# {5 Cresale price in February is evidence that past prices3 F7 P* ?: Y# e# m* h) n
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 a, m9 L' ^. M+ @9 Zhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- w( T7 F0 C+ a b |deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# k4 ^1 q. f* y+ [& x$ }
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: D, a q. \, d ^! E, {* t
leg down over 2009.
( _$ a u0 ?; S; F- @2 }3 {
& t5 X: c" b8 C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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