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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
6 _! b! f9 M; @& }* rWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- w% n4 p& _6 y) u$ P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 X/ R: q' y0 w' J8 q" a# [7 s/ K2 Q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 [; _9 ^; l! ~* U
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ b! O1 G1 m7 H9 y \% kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: o" M+ _4 @4 b, R' d0 ]0 Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
0 x' S: q0 E1 }1 ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 X; C7 A! c1 c& I" Emay even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 s' N; B0 ?" w0 _4 b7 H
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 ?/ O& m m2 {" f! E+ |
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: U& B6 `% t& L4 f3 [" J1 n2 `' X
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 b/ ?5 f; u4 V& U! I o1 `
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% P: ^$ D3 E" |7 T* H+ o+ eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, N! X- H- g% V0 lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) g3 f* ~; M0 o( P' a4 v
30,000 new households will form in the province during
* \; @6 O/ s/ s Z% o& J. l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 |( f3 y/ k2 O
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& a9 O( `; j" m/ t& V
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 t( e# ^" p& U) G- t0 C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta4 U# S. ^5 B* U1 S5 f& x
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ ?: s' m+ l+ R/ i$ O; e9 qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ r3 s3 n- \% o4 M1 W1 n! U
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" L1 Y5 H7 W; |0 J5 z9 A8 |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 d5 N3 q1 |. c
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 O( S! l" J7 U/ v9 V A
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 a# ~6 [( j3 A* L( H9 x3 n& s w
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ K+ L9 `2 {- l2 X2 F' ?
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: v* t7 t$ D/ t& Y4 X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, b/ Z4 M6 L- W# E& `5 L& j
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in/ n1 ]8 F! h' Y; s1 v' U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 K; r6 ?9 _+ g# m
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest1 Y3 `2 u) O, x8 w0 c
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( \ h: l L$ d$ b5 ?3 }# a
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; |/ G6 j8 L' M% A, ^5 imajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
) n' P& a4 F9 F [/ gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 W4 w5 M- f% o; K/ h, I; I
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ Z) e, ~4 E6 C1 f( WThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: v5 b7 X; A4 b! Y+ [$ J2 h
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# m1 t6 G& j$ }, z5 mAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
) G( C9 |. b8 h' v; u* Uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) K6 Q- s& z+ f. ~8 E: [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 [+ S ? ?& ^/ _* d4 ?+ Eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) v& ?* q$ P/ ]7 \) E% {4 ^! C
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 W3 g0 W6 r4 d6 Ion average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, }/ B3 l. g! |/ uThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( w: D) W6 s4 s5 rresale price in February is evidence that past prices% v. m# q7 P8 m+ P4 P" u
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
[4 p5 e/ |+ N2 N7 Ahomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 d2 R' j3 c9 f1 Z! Q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 r2 W( ^% T( aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
4 i. Z+ C5 M" a3 L: r& l6 qleg down over 2009.' f% ?) [' K: U
& ^! U+ E$ x- u* O; _. ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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