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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.- e4 L- l' I8 n% A
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
. h, \+ x: c  ~1 H$ |* X
% b  h  Z9 s/ }The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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6 q8 t3 ~( v1 q' j* }% I8 T"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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/ I$ y; p( o3 `! VNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.% u8 A+ a# e( n* }

! x; c# ^# ^* M3 p6 D7 bTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.4 s: T- j: k/ D

, t" J5 Q, `1 {  i"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. . K$ C: J( C' v9 [9 _$ r
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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" R# r, q3 j5 \4 PMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 7 [# e, A6 s9 K0 I! s. B8 _. j

4 R+ |# t3 S: h; v* n" Phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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8 w+ A0 ~6 ~: S. }: d0 sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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) b2 y6 `" I  @3 q- O  @) U- b[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
* P3 E0 ~' z. J* m- Q 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。8 f3 ]% M( M% U" e

5 I' A8 U5 L8 Y( o% ^- k1 i0 w[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % h$ L% A% J+ x; X. F, z
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了# [* C5 O6 i/ X+ [2 M
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- _; ]( j' U! B+ QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' y0 L# d; S: J  o9 ^5 Rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! m9 V" s( T/ ?! A) Gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' T1 z6 t9 |( M! v+ d2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# K1 F5 o2 A3 u# P6 dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% t2 ?  U1 \9 C- zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 k9 K: e: i+ r' G, X
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 v6 {4 @2 ]* J2 C5 G/ }
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 u" l1 M: n/ Z- a1 y9 P& n" ?; j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, D4 W  h$ p) G' c  @) H+ |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. U) r; y' p' [4 }0 h6 \to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) d0 Z/ e/ S1 J. u2 @! I' nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  |5 H) L' R2 E; \- J
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ S" K5 P' X+ c3 K
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. L1 s; T' n% ^. v9 H30,000 new households will form in the province during7 S# r2 |+ o) W4 P
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* N* @+ a- z+ L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# _( B' g  H& \4 i' S5 `% Zhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 ~' [3 _% e4 l7 D  q- s6 Oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta6 c# I" \% D, C1 H3 R% b# P1 R* |
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 H: K) m: d0 }9 ~: R3 y0 i) l9 X
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 g+ I+ F- H: s6 B/ @3 b  bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 l6 ?& S' O# V% \- Dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' d! V/ I8 l4 z5 G9 S8 b
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ b1 y6 p1 `. t" t
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ o' `% w/ G% H. E1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* T' T4 p  O1 M# |" v# p/ Ysales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 i0 x  }$ r2 {6 Z8 e. D: Hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# t7 V. u7 G* m* a
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( D+ g0 W1 i% Y) Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& K: R) A% u1 L0 i2 V) Kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 L. k; F* E. G) ?* [4 c# t8 B6 irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& Q  n0 e6 i$ A7 M* Eresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 f8 U) c1 T* B- W, _major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ O+ ~; ?( j) L" X% k0 F, Fof new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 j: _, K% V: y' P3 P+ T! t. E: G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.. D# X5 f8 e. o& a) g$ v
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
! h& i9 j: Y% `! ]8 V7 O& c; Uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 F* A0 J: U( g  m" n
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan9 K; U& D: d0 @- M
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ v" @: e* A6 E: P" C; b# F) nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( m6 T6 @0 ]* u% s( A" ?* }" k
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ S7 C( F: ?' [' othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( I' p# @" K3 R+ i- eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. }+ w4 R+ `7 S, b/ \3 `) C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. y# `, e5 l3 jresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 ]* y, o/ R- Z- [3 a
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove2 o" e- S8 u+ H
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- k! R/ @1 n8 {8 M, j4 h5 Q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, j7 L7 P3 ?& Y. S6 s& i( s
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%9 v/ B. W  Y. S) g
leg down over 2009.. q. @6 S9 @5 S: M/ W7 \- h6 H
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* u1 r) A0 X2 N7 `  {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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- r- k1 A& N& R, w" n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
* A; |9 n. z1 ?2 ]( I8 K5 h翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子0 n, J8 E1 r" r9 o7 o( }

( A% C7 }* L- a' B2 c# chttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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/ M7 Z+ |, @. a- ?! A6 q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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