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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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0 R/ D6 M, @% G% SThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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3 s8 b  Y* U* ~' o9 Y9 D"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 5 |* d$ x* E: Z- p! u

8 B1 u" B: l3 I/ O$ ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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0 p" e8 {- A: S: JMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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& }) Y1 J5 |5 x) W0 k3 xhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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( S  B- d% W4 }, ?% V! ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,+ ~8 K' f8 u3 F6 J$ _2 j

$ O) U0 R5 y% ~& x[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。8 q' t6 ^/ S$ H1 T5 {5 S" [) ?
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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1 T% i8 q! P- H8 t) o6 C: e! x[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 _6 E+ r9 ^& w% h4 s
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
7 |7 M7 n/ e$ |9 y! ^6 `; {, E嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
. }3 d8 X0 }  |* y1 ZWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its# t* T) {5 C0 k- g& h, B2 b( T
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. |  Y: U0 Z7 `; n4 Q3 P( Eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% R+ a7 e, h5 V! O8 l$ s4 B
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 u: p) ]3 e. i, z1 @2 J' v* P7 Q
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# z5 ^5 Z0 M& i/ H* kfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,  N  s8 N4 x! U1 Z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 ^' m. ?) U! C% M) W0 C
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous: S& ]$ w2 y, o% B0 f) X+ U1 b. D
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. a3 ?. }! T8 t, ^1 ^precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( p1 z( k9 Z5 E2 F$ |0 kto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 I4 d+ o6 n6 k6 y6 h  Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 y8 ]1 B' i5 `: f2 L/ tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- u! v: ]9 V5 W8 I, l3 k- O! }1 Yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 T: d8 y  }' ~8 s30,000 new households will form in the province during
) {" ~" H1 x* q' H8 y0 V2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.+ G. F" g# T; s. \" x
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 ^8 Q+ e9 Q( |homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' G+ H- V' w" Wduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 k6 j5 |5 e/ Q. L& G- h# Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ f4 _/ l+ P/ I, H* O: ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 o6 w9 Z% }+ k. ]5 i
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging" i9 G! G2 E9 Y5 c
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 X3 g" U2 x$ ^) r' g
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* F9 A/ v* l- B! c' }excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
- w. D! a0 \5 C% F% i" H$ `1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a* z8 |# r% r  V: J7 i9 ?# |
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive* A4 o% a& r0 a) y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% c, n! c/ m( \6 Y5 `two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 w% n! w3 e* _  ^- c6 z  Punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. g! i. V! J9 P" k. e- i; ?* s: ], ?unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
( s8 d5 t% E( R' V2 f4 _' Q* drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 Y# c, U" ?7 Uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 n# Y  K2 |* [! y% `2 x! @major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 z& _9 w) P8 T8 C
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! b! D6 b4 S) orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 [* }7 r, u! o! w! C
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 [$ Z7 j! e* ]" _( @6 ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 p, \2 V* F* l, W6 a% GAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan5 n1 o* j$ A- D0 M1 t( P7 s
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% \4 w% f8 L, b: h9 Q9 xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 v+ \  _& ^) M8 Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 x: `& V! X3 C: @, M3 i- Y; f+ rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners4 x: I+ y# w. C0 K' g9 H6 r, I
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% t5 E# \' s4 j& B+ s
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& Z" l0 z. o: y( N' Z, Z8 q8 y7 s/ Q, G
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 l7 Y: J+ b* ~4 Cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* |7 g9 m8 X/ A0 [) M2 @1 k; X; ~
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 X* I. w! z6 Odeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 A3 L9 V) d4 u: c% i6 `0 W* V$ h/ gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 J/ t) Q9 n/ ]9 K4 Z3 k' L0 E
leg down over 2009.. _' e3 m  c; o6 {8 I2 D  B
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 \# M# ?! e" V: t' p; NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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) u; `6 x2 P9 x+ k. B! X" ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 K. n9 I2 F# Z4 J0 U9 z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. j8 w  }7 G+ Y, r* L, ^! f# |; e

" A9 }" Y. \0 z3 s* a: f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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