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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' _4 c: Y' N7 P' D( B9 \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
! q' Q+ k( I/ E! u% k! k6 Fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 D5 H; x: i/ L Iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; K( h9 ?& U# g A' |0 X5 K) A) P2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household3 T9 r: b0 w, u3 B) t
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ V0 a" o+ y# X4 g2 |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' ^/ c* C/ b& O8 A. v- F1 Q, Z3 b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( n3 i U2 ` u: N" G4 g% k: y9 |
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 |6 p5 A h" u6 X+ [pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# m$ k6 j$ F8 Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 E: \2 [! Q9 V; S8 ?to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! N u( U6 a5 k: J4 vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this4 I5 ~7 g `* {5 ]1 `8 s0 [/ N
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) f2 e6 E' }. [. N. N) y3 thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' |% R+ }* Q+ x1 J30,000 new households will form in the province during
) E' z8 t) X# L. M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& R0 P) B) ^) F* S/ N, KEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) p6 N9 d/ {$ j! ^6 K3 Lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 _: H& w3 i. O0 H, |during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
. g3 j; ^6 f% U- A/ chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% u( a. n# L: Q) J2 Ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" q$ @7 E/ y$ s) H
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* A+ U- g# a/ I* b6 Osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) X1 u9 p' Y4 q- @clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 T6 l+ s- H# c. m9 W! E; fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' {2 W3 Q# k' q9 E4 m i6 E1 e
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% E/ ^) j/ z# z* ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ b) L9 N' h- v
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 a7 G$ e8 W0 j J6 t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" Y: ~2 N4 G" s: L# F
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 {$ { M# N$ |* I7 sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest. K/ C1 P$ [; L- p
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& X- u/ l# S& S# R( Y& z! [/ Lresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s1 q# @3 T% D. i
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* s/ h9 l: Q& S/ S' y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled) o% F$ o! t- a" }9 Y" Q. ], r$ [
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- @4 g0 v$ d9 |5 s. L# l
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ R# e* s* L3 A! E1 t3 v9 G6 [2 K; B
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- ~" N- `" l" A# x- r5 N* O4 y$ h
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan3 W- w2 |: ?: t5 h
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ S) x9 J P6 o* h, K) q8 I" urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale% T3 u& F/ z8 X5 C$ |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 j3 f, N9 I4 {; p8 U1 E Hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( q! T1 n# o R% V {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 U1 v( M. A! i6 LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 c4 M* K& f/ E2 r6 Z0 ~$ `& l
resale price in February is evidence that past prices2 k) V: m4 C' u1 }/ i1 c1 E
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; c7 ^: Y( a* U6 X- i8 W
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- N6 a: U' I$ Y5 F) F+ Vdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- F6 a) m) d. M. d: f# y
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! l) R, N3 ^( X4 p# Z0 Dleg down over 2009.) k2 ^1 V: p# U% n7 D
9 y8 H6 ^7 s3 K1 G
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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