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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.- T$ T4 T. N+ A* T7 O

" w3 ~) J) e2 {- m4 ]! S8 PTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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2 q; D" a  H( X" B* c0 x5 F"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 4 u, \) ^" [3 t" T9 [- ?( h- ?

  Y' {- ^( A2 {9 X1 [0 Y. ^' K' yNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. S1 N4 ?( O  M- d6 J6 q5 M
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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0 _% {. L/ M; J  }( [  J"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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6 q& _* e' S5 iMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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2 E: w/ e2 ^- B8 ]TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
- ^: o' R- O' b  T3 f; S4 G 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
  u& c; i8 a7 i7 n8 O) H& j& W跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了/ P" T3 o: N6 L( @4 K' j
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 w! j7 m, E5 P7 }( y& L6 Q$ C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its" Q# k% }: l* s, Q* Q: i- c
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 |8 ~! ^! d. H. Q- H9 aare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' ]! T, I4 d! O; N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% h' X- m2 e# q2 {( }9 K+ {
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
  V& W1 [7 g/ R/ t: t) G$ G7 Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 l' d4 ^! R( x6 n
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 j, k. ]- t2 G7 I
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ ~8 F" }5 S; w" S) q: fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% b6 k. c8 o* Y. qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined& P, d: E& q+ @9 b/ b7 g7 S
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 @$ V  k" i+ {# K) b) ~9 iprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( j: T" \! r8 q2 _2 O8 x; Tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# Y1 W, J# y9 w5 a0 Y/ i7 c2 Y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ ]$ D* r8 Q$ u30,000 new households will form in the province during5 Y/ K: ]; _; e
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 n6 s- Y3 o7 O3 F
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( S) ?; y6 W% Z( f' V* nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: t) Y) `+ q9 t- g; X9 R% jduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* @4 [8 t( N9 R3 C# ]) D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: a' s5 Z/ O  c. p6 Ehouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
  `3 h( d0 _8 uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 ?9 p( B" E: R& ^% ~2 a1 D, P
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
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excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' [4 A, T; \8 [) \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a  {, n4 E& c' b; _$ Z( n" B' {' x
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
; G3 X. [; G' F( E% x/ {/ [2 W5 }buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  e( N; X& V: E# N% _! E. jtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 h& K2 C& k. R* j. X0 U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 J7 \3 W' ^3 n5 c% D7 W- K
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ ]" T/ N3 r4 F8 f
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
  y8 k. I8 ]9 S; C9 o4 p' ?- D" p4 h- Zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# a/ D2 B7 }0 k' [' r! f% ]; k
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 z! l6 {; F, i6 V5 O
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 [* g/ v# A9 {) C' o( irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 l$ j0 R  y6 ?: `9 u4 t' LThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ n- k% R3 N/ K5 o  Bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., J$ ^7 w: c: K" Q
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% g9 v$ ?3 [1 M1 x5 J0 R' k! f
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 ?# ~* \3 v. s( W& wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 ]% d  f5 T3 `prices substantially eroded affordability and, even. @/ Z2 v/ Z* S8 N
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; Q7 ]; s( _, B0 l
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) B7 t: z9 W6 Q4 v5 {5 e* }The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% h( M0 @! n3 \. m# ?4 `9 qresale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 [' c, z* o! o0 _# \* `exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% M% T) c! ]2 b/ ^9 o. Y# ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 X; D/ p" b6 B% X* H1 H* Odeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% v! |( B3 G3 U0 QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%  b* q+ h8 [' E* k; E' b5 Q$ ]
leg down over 2009.
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+ \; [) E# F. V8 i$ \6 ]1 w3 |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: X% a1 S" p; v0 f; [% p0 pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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2 v/ l( ~! W$ \9 A# b# \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
) a' |1 x7 P7 }( n7 Z* m翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. v8 q3 a( n+ `: V, _
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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