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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.  q0 B) V" R6 h" I- P
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! X% n2 g, |) v5 F

+ F( \' b! y$ Z; E; O1 wThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ) d% e  u- j2 n  N

# S" _4 {6 M* p5 O4 ?5 ]3 |' U1 r3 b"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. : v1 m5 @8 S+ e; s
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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. V! `5 U3 Q1 A. c% QTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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  ]0 K1 Z7 r/ d; |& K"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. - H; Z2 s2 g( a

2 G1 @7 c/ k' k) n4 RTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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2 L/ S. I7 N: v  r8 UMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,( B8 T' L3 L/ Y% x

) x' u( ]7 ~. Q/ O[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
; i, ]( Z/ Y) n  O  d 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。/ A8 S6 W% n2 P" S- E3 N

4 L$ s3 Y' Z, q4 |[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ) G2 g" V: x: l+ @7 S
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

; U1 ]2 O7 n" n2 ?: i1 q* Q很多人都回学校深造去了+ [' I, t' h0 C/ ]+ d
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& J9 S3 v9 Z: F9 `: _# _) |& _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ _! \2 Y6 t1 n1 ?% g: [
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 _3 s' k% S# g& w! P
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' B+ f) \3 v- e1 i2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! y/ d5 s% ~$ k) j6 s
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided+ N: [, G2 k1 ?; f% \
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,) i& J& b1 f- N+ ]& y& [$ C
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 `) U1 \) ?; q+ wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous) h$ F" @. {5 [- Z
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; C8 B) n$ e9 X. \4 Y, }
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, ]9 V& k" n9 c7 V; ]to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! g# W# j. I1 \
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) W$ G6 w2 k' b& r' I" N8 ~# O  p6 R
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( Y0 A! ~# Q+ N1 whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 H0 t1 i9 P/ J* ]" W, {) {
30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 w4 P: r5 X8 L9 f/ o: X) @4 \# K2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 x4 K, {( t1 D4 P! [) m4 L. E) ~9 O' q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ G; E! V& `" ^5 x9 r" f( ~4 Ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- B6 y6 S/ k5 q: A9 C6 a1 r5 k' oduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: G& U7 C; T: o, y$ n/ O( Khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# U& ^7 S, Y9 i! g; l) p
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! K9 q- W) t$ |% U+ U. Hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: g  Y: B- p: {0 c+ w
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 n4 Q$ q' A2 ~clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! F: Y( `& x) m1 R* Q' B& R% bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- \& t$ o, T6 H# J# c' m
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. ^/ R/ y  O* r; Ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: `( T$ @- U7 M, L: Cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" H. `. W* k1 f9 M! }two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, P0 F5 N5 Y- Eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. u8 R, u8 j$ a0 u1 |2 F+ I5 C5 wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ T; h" r' T3 m, Z+ x
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 a; o5 z( O6 [) Iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ l3 k, M$ i! R: X$ \, e, \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
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rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* s( U+ S! s$ Y& n" p6 GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# z$ }% S4 J9 r" rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& @: R  ?9 G7 ]$ |5 VAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan" l5 V% R* n3 C) q6 D- h9 ~- }- S
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
8 a' X6 f( ]3 C% n3 ]relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
% n( P! ]' f& e3 Q: |prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: s% n& `6 {! \+ I  H  W/ zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! l; \( G' x, \5 X1 Gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% K9 O7 a; N% T
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) P0 M5 \4 u8 A# w4 K& O7 B4 iresale price in February is evidence that past prices4 L. |3 r( `& p: A( z+ p; K! C
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 |4 l1 {" a$ r% }, u+ z- k& ]) Shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# P7 I9 U4 Z- a. F/ wdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 y# g  D( X2 K
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' N2 c1 g0 w1 m3 M) C+ z
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 Q; x* V! f8 e& K. S
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
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6 ~, n5 C8 f/ [# whttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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