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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 I$ C; Y) O. ~- j. r9 O7 \
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. + f+ B; a% E# v/ Z! {/ V

3 \6 D1 l9 z" q- v, J! u, Z9 aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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5 J( x1 E3 s9 G6 ~& B6 _$ W"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) z& Y1 _* d8 c; K: w, Z, Y- H

# i+ b$ T. y) J4 uNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.& a- m' e; V0 B6 h

0 H* ~  w8 J- p# l* P9 q8 T% {- yTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.) ]/ y0 P8 O* t" M
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ' ]6 Y2 g  ~' E( P" J
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.; [; Z1 L- x+ E% o' C8 t) c& F, i; `
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. p. ]& ?( F  {8 c2 y
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
. F3 P! R3 Z4 j; |3 T 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。+ {) ^7 ^0 q& h1 ?7 J

* e# _& X* B# [: x- Y! p[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
% r5 L$ p" n' r" u/ v2 M9 E( I跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

5 }: K+ R! z% S( Y. F  s5 `很多人都回学校深造去了
' d- [" W8 L: p% D嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 u  j" t  }( t* w) X4 w7 ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 D- {) M' d6 q9 w! P" j' Gboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( S, D9 b8 h$ ?' d; w
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 N) X2 J: `8 w+ b3 n0 ^
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household  S# |, k8 }5 B9 O
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 m: M' C- i% x  cfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" ]1 Q0 A  V- Y/ X5 O9 X1 ]- T1 othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ j; I  d( ~; w; F& Z$ I/ z# c
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous: A, I0 k1 f7 f/ l  ^3 b
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( c" o! u; f/ \6 e/ Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
- V/ T& r1 f; s1 n; Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& \, x  u1 X' f7 L- c' Vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this9 E& T  p# e9 m" ~
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 o2 {! x1 F, u% o; d
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
+ q5 D& S: ~" f2 ^2 A30,000 new households will form in the province during1 |7 ]2 I# H+ Y! S: b9 r
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
, r2 U! u) ?5 [. K5 z, [5 F$ X5 }Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 r6 T; P; l7 L2 jhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- p& o1 Z" T% [' ]- tduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 Z" k; u5 S* V0 N, u  Q* jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 t0 H7 ]1 w: x. h( ^5 N: t5 u
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. Q6 ^& s( G% ^+ t1 [6 W8 iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 F8 h9 m2 v1 l: _- qsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ U" v) b- r" l- p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) l- F$ D0 {9 G! j% Gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# @( }2 n) B3 u
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; ^$ A8 s. O7 y! j; W
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive: ?' Q+ W* ]9 r8 a5 J( U: i
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 Y5 k" f" h2 H6 b% Otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 b( u" P# o* Q* v
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 I# D( P) S$ K1 F+ k
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ o1 V& b8 o, h* d* jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' m0 G% c) R: W" {: o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& S/ Q; t8 d5 n7 p7 P6 T* amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* M0 [0 b, P& C# A4 `1 r+ ?, Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 y0 a1 |0 G6 [! r1 s' e  g$ Y7 p+ }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, v6 f* G8 |; s. u3 BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 Z( ~3 I( b" N. r* X
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 q. u0 u/ e2 ^4 CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
  @; }( v' M  H$ V) O% l7 M' g! {housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. M( R" ?$ M/ ]& ?1 X5 b7 X3 M1 e
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale; V0 Z9 T3 [% q2 J. r" n
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# |9 M8 M- l' d9 o# p- D" F, z  G  q) wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ L. f) N/ ?! s* j0 w; `% T% Von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. {5 I$ c. j; t1 L- v. p8 EThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: I& r5 E0 W* {! V8 d0 d
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 ?/ M. P( s- D8 H% i8 n; {$ Gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 D' y2 k5 J9 O; {1 @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- A% D/ b0 P/ y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: H( Q; B$ R6 t! O( B: w* SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: B9 t) J. v5 q0 Q+ c
leg down over 2009.0 R+ b4 u  }& c0 }! r, Z" n! J

  v) J4 E( {! `6 Z" i, M2 N; o( r, S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
4 J4 V* }! m- c- G4 D$ o# |Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. , s% H6 ~. Z: A/ {+ j4 q8 j, B! j
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子' ~! z0 A4 r# K
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments, W5 A3 M# S7 I9 Z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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