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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) X; ^+ l8 |+ x+ l/ O5 a1 H! n% g
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 p/ t8 E% W2 i- o- C+ W
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 a' m0 @% c/ U2 i# Tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 w/ _( E- X* z% ?" F2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& x4 J( J5 X0 i/ o* M9 U; _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided$ c) s" h8 @% @7 W q" |1 l, H3 ?
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 _7 k9 y8 I' {& mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 |# a5 s- A# e" i$ o9 V+ `may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( U1 `4 R. T) F# u6 _) Epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 B5 t3 F2 @9 c6 Oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 m) v" k* n/ v1 V5 Q0 L3 U t5 L
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year Z) `! W7 p/ B$ T c5 ^$ p
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. z' z3 p* E5 v$ H n
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 j6 C4 i; Y, B) Y' Q% e. \, Nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* }" C% C' B" K$ V3 k- D: _7 {
30,000 new households will form in the province during
- A Q; Q6 T6 f3 j; t7 o2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ K/ ^4 }/ ~2 _5 `Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 K/ g- `' V- n/ j/ e4 q8 X6 P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%) K. T* O* A6 P7 s3 C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; g& w. Z; J* _1 S0 l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& N2 i8 S( i, Z' @/ ` j
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; C0 r2 P6 Y6 g6 j3 _- [during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 W, `5 M9 r: p ~% M
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 i. n! @8 r4 u2 F2 j& gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, ~+ Q0 k" w* u- H0 h" xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; S& ^2 M q6 F) ~1 b Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' c g0 o. B x B# k- j' M7 J0 C* v. Z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% T7 j& C) S2 W+ e1 zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' ~* Z' {% v6 U f! i9 d& Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" k C& x% e# g5 _3 t0 ?unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- d& _. e0 R% A0 H- N( G3 @/ zunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ v/ E1 f) g, a5 J* j7 o
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 n1 W$ r' f7 e* K- m$ w6 Fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 j; p( a, P5 `0 U4 t9 e
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 e( r8 D) i* `5 p6 ]of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ {1 A: f; m2 v. z8 W I/ y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: C- H- o3 z3 d7 [/ r- }, Y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ w' b5 ]/ Z7 }/ Q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) j/ T5 @- S; H! _9 @
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan* ^; X( }* h4 |7 d! H5 n/ X" Z) K7 }
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced) E$ p4 }6 ]; Y, k/ l, ^5 |2 U
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, f- d- ]2 w( H) c; G) x' Zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 u, e1 r" W \2 _7 {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* T7 \8 ^. n9 d* F; g, w
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) L) B- J. C: E: c/ xThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' m" E4 H$ @0 C' rresale price in February is evidence that past prices
' o5 W" t" i$ p- g/ Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; B: U4 R+ P$ m. a4 p3 a
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’! L. ]8 W- s7 k# v( r# z5 R, t
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# ~1 f7 }# w$ ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 B1 i. x9 ~) K' Q: kleg down over 2009.& @) _4 X6 J+ C7 B9 h; }3 c5 }$ W4 y
5 G/ \. a, p" s' w) I- e/ q% Z5 V X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," }% U+ N0 I. q6 k- I7 s R' ~
