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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.( I. X) {& W# U% D
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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. Q$ q- E5 c" T# z! i% zThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. + b, t6 ?& J/ [$ k7 `4 H

3 O' ]# x/ h" S0 b/ E"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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+ X8 D7 {4 ~8 e; P9 L0 XNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller./ `" \% {6 z, m/ b( Z6 v

9 V0 g9 I+ Y; XTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.9 T4 \6 v$ |# d2 s

7 Z% g9 ?" G8 T* ~"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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4 a5 a& T. W) s& z2 o! m. U0 h9 |3 KTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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4 N8 b. d, n: E: D. y- FMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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+ [; B& w* l' x! b. M6 @$ Ohttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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& }- e0 F6 Q' M' B[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。, y' G6 ^2 y# b1 w) _
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ! x) k4 T2 a$ L7 Z$ U' Z5 Q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, Q: j/ y! R8 b2 G很多人都回学校深造去了! G. d' H$ p- a7 Y" o& o- z) ?
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta9 Q' M. D; G/ H$ m1 r$ y5 a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ U! q7 }) L7 C! M8 V; Lboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* `7 y) @4 g2 g/ r( N, b  R. f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% ^' e* ~/ q7 m1 \: q( ^( x
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ V# V; j7 A3 e0 a0 f7 k9 fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 A( q2 l) a  ?2 l9 f; Rfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# K- {4 d; {1 }$ Dthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. n- s: D+ f' v& ]
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 a6 X6 @5 s9 x
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* J6 \. U$ [$ U; U0 |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 }- {3 n& T( p5 S7 v5 sto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 v; \2 j5 v/ U" t) Cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' h  S" [2 d8 d( ?5 f! d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 B% A& \4 [1 R6 u4 a2 t! ?* S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, b3 h& M. @4 [# L1 V7 p
30,000 new households will form in the province during8 o: O+ D; @8 V. ]8 Q
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# O! ^# i6 L& a5 a  \
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s% l' _" Y& Q4 v/ |9 P
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 S, P5 _" C9 y+ w. T
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  |5 F/ N- U5 x% u
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 Q5 e) G/ W+ W* s$ R0 \6 `# a' ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: T( ~9 Y% d- d! Y3 f0 ]" Bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
, m/ k+ B% G" l  |6 b$ e: msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
+ O& y) {1 y8 f8 B% a5 F% Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 L' ^% P5 I1 x; Z& ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 w. Z" j+ Y' r  C
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 P( e, H, [( d; [# w7 csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 p; K( k. m  }) x4 J. Gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; v, B2 B' A4 f. H
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 b& t) k4 X' u+ I
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& e8 J$ `5 U/ e# Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% B  q- t8 F5 srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 b+ E% S2 t) H$ l% F8 ^6 {resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s  u5 \/ R6 I# F$ s% \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 h0 B1 D* k; Z+ Vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! K# ]0 L8 a7 T! v
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 ^0 v) `9 N5 o' r# R' gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 N" u$ V: w# [& _0 o8 o
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 a2 k% O/ K6 jAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan  X  H: e1 m; D$ a. [/ X' V" A
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ Q3 u( @" S1 q8 {) g2 h5 z) V; Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 u: B! E/ q2 r( B: {: m, T+ d. l
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even" t0 H9 ^: v, ~2 G8 n4 q' L. K) s1 C
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, K. _5 B. F$ d! p0 U; f" S
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
0 d0 ~* A1 O3 A, m' hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* I+ C/ F6 F3 u  X* H
resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ n8 S9 ]8 \  P
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. r5 b, K8 f. ^5 E- n  Q
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; _- c7 D0 v' N3 Z$ `
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" k2 ?+ b3 ]8 k) u. R& m& nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; {/ n# i" \* V
leg down over 2009.
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# l' N# p- ~. _% y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& c# t2 P5 k# H/ u& U$ U
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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5 s$ ~/ ]0 L$ h1 S7 U& c[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
# l$ m/ r; x' A$ c# W3 `翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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/ g. g! C" O( a9 j+ P# m9 ]" Vhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments  q+ m$ w$ V% @+ C2 h: G. e
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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