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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta4 {" n- S! z' H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its4 t7 t8 Z1 [& I) v/ G; q" P9 |
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& P* c) Z% n0 E( dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: a* g1 I* c! a; D! z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; ?9 ]* h& s( `9 X# Tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 R4 X1 [; L( q% p1 J4 J( h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! t6 ?3 C, V; e/ o( Z$ b7 d1 a/ M9 Nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ w$ n Z! X* t' p- {0 G* Hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
2 t. f6 n8 L$ \: ?" j( ]3 Cpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 [# h4 f6 o/ ~% O' ?. ~$ Gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 I: t; \) }5 x, d
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 X8 b& K y9 R' V+ P4 a# M- }1 B# T
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, d; G r: F* A( L& {2 i; |2 Wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' d4 X; L5 \# y5 w' J! W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# I5 y2 K$ b" H# [' { W+ y% n$ s+ [6 |. D
30,000 new households will form in the province during+ Z" a% h" X/ t7 a1 p
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( `& d6 f$ [# |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 r$ ~/ r8 t0 ]. P0 B, D2 h3 `homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* o; q* o! N+ u. ^' ^2 j$ }during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ U3 T" ~1 l i8 k( x0 m. R* C2 ^% E
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* v4 U" V! G$ V9 N1 F \* F
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% j' L/ G, ?* }0 j6 c$ ?1 Lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) c: d: l# p1 a+ j) w5 G r, S7 G# x) z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. }5 H0 [* ^! H3 Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 y7 _: _2 O+ Q) Q; \" L' ^3 R$ J7 _# Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; {3 P: q% x6 v+ D6 g7 B
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: Q% B+ b6 \8 R/ T1 p) Tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 U% q4 T. X" k8 B, o8 m$ ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
% B9 ~, _) L8 C% htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( \. e: ?4 p& ] S$ ]3 d7 f3 K& m7 m9 ~, Aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% r/ k+ W% c& d2 K4 }* Q- p& y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 X8 b9 A' ?1 R. \/ t0 @# h+ brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 G2 \1 b5 f6 ]7 R9 u
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ N, X. ~. Y' @2 B7 v; b; e
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 T3 a$ s9 C i& ?% ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 C- g% N7 B3 j2 V* |rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 M; R9 v P9 ]- W9 v
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 n# z: G# M& i8 ]% W& z: Rboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 R" z, D' }" H; D/ m, YAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 K8 b/ k! \4 v1 S7 i6 yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ o( Q6 o! i" G& arelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ e3 i. @1 j* A; I( ?) J
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 d0 u z$ h# F" Pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 N( `9 U, Z, P
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* P( W. Q4 n5 T) }. IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average4 Y8 ^+ j: o) i- c1 g
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# j: a5 F3 u% _4 ~1 P! A1 H
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% f1 c6 ^ F+ X! P
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) x, \" s, ]( N( k- O1 w- t. i% Mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,$ |1 Q2 k' o# q) a7 A
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 x9 n- F+ `1 u
leg down over 2009.6 L3 w7 n" ^8 D4 b
0 D O* }+ W" o& i" e2 t" t
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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