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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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1 ?1 h3 o# {2 A! rTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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9 h) n! ]; V" h) \2 Y, kThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 4 {2 x$ c. m+ |$ |/ F

4 p! l. F5 v4 d7 g; t/ W7 J6 Z! P"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' D: d! H( u; ]

1 N, X/ g7 T" Z$ nNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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) T' k7 R- h1 ?6 w& sTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 3 s, H9 T3 h9 L  [$ v# M
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year./ E- u3 G4 q! `" e: W
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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2 Q4 E# M) G7 h7 V/ S' W/ nhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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/ u8 c% X- J% A  x5 W, ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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" Y2 k+ ~" f; G, v' N$ ^[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
7 l- m0 f# a' x; A 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。7 k) r2 \# S) i* P: }8 i

( q+ c  {6 S, h" T  A/ H[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
7 u& _8 k1 X3 a" t, Q7 L- k+ u* o, Z跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
  Y1 T5 E! `$ I% s7 O2 \/ i嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta8 L$ b  d& ^5 t9 t# D. D
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its/ N2 v  ^9 d. g4 N4 B
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, a) g2 U  ^. Z$ Bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 h4 `3 L' d+ ]. g2 H
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. M5 ^. J, c& L4 L) j9 N4 rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 O7 r$ _$ y0 p; M% |4 j) @6 efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ h3 O% i4 N3 Q7 h$ t7 A4 U1 a2 @- Zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 R1 R  ?: g- N, m6 R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( R, i& h  D+ n' C3 j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ ~5 R6 B5 d" D( A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined5 D- E. w$ K; S! Z% J1 a
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 I3 K+ z. n: B- o) j# A# [prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, i- y  i! @" v+ m
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% N, _5 i0 p7 u* o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ t; G& _" I9 a$ k# }6 B2 y; s- Z30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ [4 r5 c9 I3 c3 h  r8 {4 q, v2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 Y7 B9 |0 E6 D( S
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 \( B# U+ |  ~" u; nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 s8 T" q7 {4 [
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 |% W/ i8 W4 g, _) `3 i. v: ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 a; r# P7 E- I) f, m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" V. }/ n; T/ R, o- _during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- x" P1 p$ j) p* y* P5 Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  i! l  Y% c( a4 E& I7 r2 W; y! I8 b
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' A7 Z! g! A8 U  O9 e7 p+ xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of3 i' ]  M* B' z% F$ w0 I
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. E8 Q  I  j8 j3 s  s9 M3 Y1 ?sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 Y! X9 K$ ~. i6 s. E  G$ @0 @) Ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 l3 p' P6 P# A$ H7 z- M/ Q9 l* otwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- x: W9 _' g' `0 R0 W, o: X% G
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ f8 K  Y) f7 ^: vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 H* D0 B+ L; d0 V3 h" y' A, Erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, }3 i; ~& T4 Z5 |+ ^$ {. ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
  Q" ^! d; x6 P0 ?major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) u8 [0 M5 I% d: M2 T
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 z8 }/ r3 p, T8 C" g' W3 @" B4 Brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ C) s+ H6 n) R0 u
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 w! G# G5 a( M2 Tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# r" X. v( H/ M9 o  c0 G8 g+ iAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
& j$ X4 l7 D( ^0 H: @* {1 vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ g7 \8 R9 ~: |3 i* t- S
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. t1 ]1 k; o, F% m- L$ w# t7 r( K, jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even  t  e7 k5 C, r' v' b
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' {) i. A; j3 J* ]2 i, ?  h
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 W9 m( C0 ^+ C7 a9 Z/ E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( S& k3 ^7 d# [1 Q# @# i  g" sresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% ?4 ]" c' \7 G2 z2 M- S" hexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* c4 P8 ?+ s( I; I* _
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ \! t4 J% p! u& V: p7 f4 ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,  \# i: B9 [6 g! J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% I: J" }! K: n2 c' F5 M* xleg down over 2009.% ]- I5 m' `6 ~4 T# _4 \) w7 Q
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# h; t8 H) X  X% F7 LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 _$ M" x, z8 z$ D
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子( x( u5 x2 r5 ~, W9 |2 U% Y5 C) [

, K* k. c7 ?. p* R9 ahttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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