 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ K) A3 X9 o& v) jWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 Q. [. {( h; w8 _' m8 ?boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 v. F, I# W8 p0 V$ Hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 D0 B) E) N& @- N) A$ [) b2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 [* v2 d8 B: I+ ~4 }
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
" W0 n6 B- U m. Z* ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 L2 Q0 y S ^" n1 C# n. D, M {the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ v1 H$ f/ A& K8 H+ h" h$ z0 V- ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous m. W8 T& p6 ?( R8 K1 B
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 r- h u E9 z6 m# P* z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 Q4 g0 h0 m6 O& R E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 k C, s. t0 X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 |" F" q3 L! O( I; Y. z0 n ^
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: @6 y6 ~7 b3 d A1 W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, l3 N# y$ f' n# c+ P. t9 ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during4 N9 b) t8 a9 U+ a
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: V0 Q9 X6 B' w' [8 g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 D" ?, h6 z% K" c! D Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) H& I! N! W! E: l& \5 yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta( J" j) {. L4 i' }7 l; G! a: [; c( c
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 o U; A; i) c% E2 t6 \households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
U9 l$ j( N9 qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 x1 \9 W; p3 P9 V8 s5 v( U8 C
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& J; C0 h- k" ~( z, z
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) X- S" L) y: |7 m. C+ P) l" @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* S- G1 v6 \6 \6 T$ e( z, d# Y6 O& [' |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' ?4 ~, g8 y1 c+ O# G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ x, V* I5 y+ }/ b) N( Ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 N4 y0 \. o6 ?( H# k) m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* z0 N) v; T& ]( B# _* k3 {' Z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' i# d% [' D% P# N7 d
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* d( E" _- |2 O2 o `
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 K0 i" U1 k7 @9 {3 z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& _9 F9 |6 g; a* L. a
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 L8 ~1 P5 W# b% q+ T. X& } X v6 Hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 }+ u4 Q3 q8 ?) G; a# @0 e( ^rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 c# h6 g5 D' k9 B- k0 gThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 r% ~& n9 A9 V) I8 ?, n
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. C+ t1 [! Z/ K* CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ F! F9 y( l& c% Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% w8 V8 B0 V$ m/ Z: ~2 hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" p. k- l6 ^ c+ W& ~/ v2 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- c" w6 X9 U9 F3 L2 }2 Tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# q% R' N: q; d0 N
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* }0 {# p* V& q$ F8 U
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! K$ @ s$ f+ S1 u5 R5 J
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
' t7 w. J! N5 Aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 D( y Q; W7 X u6 x, U' k k
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ l& t- f2 q. C# B3 T I
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. s+ b4 J2 j e1 l! Y% b; O$ w# mAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
f1 x! I. |& T: |leg down over 2009.
( |4 y8 c( O- t: E2 A4 W
' h% L: O7 I& o. W8 x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|