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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ! K2 ^" S6 s* H6 k7 u$ T
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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6 f$ \! N) B# ZNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. `" t3 m& M# J4 N4 }

! W3 V4 s, D% O$ l7 HTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.& v: p. k; J9 `" K
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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4 _# |9 X# N2 M$ q& n( |& {: XMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. a' h$ U& Q( A, d6 b: M

4 |! ~- \& l: S, e/ I[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% `0 a6 ?7 `9 C) {5 B* Q1 q 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 F4 |- n6 h! ~6 {) c+ z4 P, X- Z9 c- h
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

% R% D$ g  p& W9 f. q% G+ y很多人都回学校深造去了
! s8 j( E9 u. {: ?嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
# s6 q( {% l0 \6 W( HWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. k6 y7 d1 D- V  k1 b! x2 u+ `  J
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% L( d  n# I) }, W' l0 l3 \5 Ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ P) E, M$ r6 P2 l+ J1 B) x6 d2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 ~# L! s( Z7 Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# M. p$ Z( L: a' d2 U$ w0 }" Z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( w. C& f( @% A) V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and. l2 g9 W/ Z7 c5 ]" U: q
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ E: e6 g+ ~7 c8 e8 j" ^9 P& ?pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 _1 Q; s& p; H, Y5 Y9 n9 e) y
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ C; _. O* u2 Q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" o" I. B# I/ P% |: Y/ e
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
  N; E8 U6 Q$ u2 n1 K% C! d5 ]2 Ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; E1 X3 N1 Z' c+ w+ c0 g) Nhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around6 ?. k. p: D0 f, A, L
30,000 new households will form in the province during4 t. E  ?2 x. P& |
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* F) S4 \7 u  T: b7 I) f/ JEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, m  [! j) `8 `% Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 q8 x, R7 G' X/ h, `3 Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# s- ]: ?& \1 @5 `" r) q7 _" f9 o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 m* H0 p- q, c9 R" c; `( P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
& v! K2 [5 v; {* `) eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; k; I. ?: ^! R
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. X" @; d6 k) q; E* F7 h( jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ m- m+ @5 g$ E: o1 M; a2 M% U' S
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
+ _% }( I/ `0 R1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, v5 S' h9 G0 r% Bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 r1 |, o$ b  c; A. x' mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, l* t% S/ w% o  Z; z* c
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 j, u; @/ A2 P, y/ s, [# ~unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: R& X# a* E7 |2 {6 Wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% t/ Z* S5 k& T6 g2 H# c& Orecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) v7 O" e4 b/ o8 N# Y+ e: s
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 S2 ?( C/ B, b! t+ P( Dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: B. V+ ~) B3 Q. W! \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: K' g) u3 J7 L7 H5 Lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 s6 e  ]4 q, Q& t% f
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% Z/ v" W: [/ F0 f( d1 \boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 {+ c  J8 M1 b8 Y8 \. V
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 J5 {7 h6 J' _% ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced0 L8 S& s# D6 y$ K" O1 R
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( @- e8 t& i+ p0 H
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 b* |" X' I; F$ O
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( J- j! I5 L  T$ T5 d
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, L- h9 g- G$ }9 j0 I/ KThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ Y0 Y1 `% v, t; r, Q0 u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices/ x1 q% R0 O7 g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" p$ e" s! X9 N) I- j) U" Ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. Q/ Z; y  z2 V3 X  n
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 {3 B: S/ P& IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 S9 _7 N7 }/ tleg down over 2009.
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$ n  y2 I2 [% [4 S/ K0 K5 U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 C2 t1 d/ c9 s% h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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6 l$ c6 O  E; J$ G, w! `) `3 P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
; n! m5 ]' R6 t$ g翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子: ^2 t- J+ Q* J8 R2 w  K) x1 q

, Y# x' s+ A1 H8 xhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments8 A; x2 C. r" P) }
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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