埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2053|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
: f  N+ h5 `: U5 j) ?+ o3 U: t* N. i& ~: ]) V
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 2 {! A1 N# b; w+ ^& ~
9 C5 r! z4 G# W0 p/ b" n$ A, M
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
' i- l6 |- V8 u* B
  B! H: K, A2 m+ @9 E2 d+ c! Z"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. $ P  ]8 _" y: I  h

2 d4 `+ g7 ~% y7 y7 i3 |* CNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.6 W- n& J: d, L5 |" a

6 m$ p2 K5 l9 o3 ]* f- [TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* P7 D9 _1 J# ~* _

' a$ |3 L* z+ @3 ~2 p! N"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
: o9 K: j/ F  h/ M  T3 s
- Y4 I5 k. p. @6 FTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.8 P. f0 S: d8 s3 L  w1 P# h
0 K, U. w% Q+ L" p; g% D/ p
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ n  s! i% X. @7 T. P

3 |1 ?; m/ X+ Yhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

% z5 O  X8 g9 Z( l- [$ g' N5 f8 i+ I" O  I+ t9 \: W
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,$ E5 r( s5 L) @5 D' {- F1 \

: R$ \- l- Q, x8 `( _4 j% k4 J3 q1 ~[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。# y- k9 j" z9 Y  b
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
' G3 ]: b' d9 Y1 s
- K! ^: A  i+ `7 m( S' I[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 $ {8 M: U& C% I! c& L
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

5 `- y/ D, Q7 Y9 u很多人都回学校深造去了
0 d9 p: t0 ]3 Q  F: Z' P嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta* _- R1 Q# P0 z3 ?8 D1 i% a( l
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) u% L/ K/ `; R+ hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# |5 B& x! ~; q
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
+ {% ]1 X1 ?9 c& n0 e4 U2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
9 k) H! o( ^8 d2 q4 F  \formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 Q2 ]5 n9 n2 C( C2 Vfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. O( P) r& M) x  o+ Jthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- Q: L+ F* u8 m& o6 K- D! G6 A
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ ?0 T9 E" \5 Lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( u+ H) X' e* {4 J" S2 T) Hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) W! ^; E  G7 y1 dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year5 T, n3 v$ |# p1 j- x# y
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 N7 ^- x4 K1 t( S2 @' h* M+ P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- u% P1 o3 n' }% l* A: B5 C: xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 F) M- f0 L& e& M. V' v30,000 new households will form in the province during1 I, W5 r" p; Z! T2 c& y! m
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
  R* N$ |6 _3 _. O: M5 lEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( m, l% }* I9 ?4 o$ A- Z( i; Uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 a$ T8 W! U8 F+ H# pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, r- I/ R2 L0 k( z6 S" J: I/ M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" N# A% @9 k, M; i" Y) _+ p! G( shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) i* _" a4 n9 _( a& q% T
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
$ ^5 k* ?# D# b( y  P# I' }! f( Msales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; I3 }1 Y+ h' z; t( E' Q: Nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# h& ~: I8 T; rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of) y$ n* ?0 ]& |9 ?. D  l
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ D; ?( I/ m( X. csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive2 A3 i! Z/ W, p3 r
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, r& N- V$ a" i/ d, s0 P" D
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 y! [% ~9 Y& V' i. Y2 R, V( _0 `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. e: c- ~: t' tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& u  U/ y# \* F9 K: _5 ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# ~8 I8 A; @. f4 d& `  b
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ L8 g7 r- _5 a; s: Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" U, w( g! k& _" I1 z9 d/ Fof new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 Y0 a0 S1 i, r( T+ J1 E' \* [3 T- ]
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' e. E' j* n, ?2 N9 N  H' R. Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) q- n7 K1 |( y6 T: L& o6 g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, m+ e" a6 q0 W8 cAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 I1 ]% Y# O; ?. `0 dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
- j, O# J0 n1 B: }0 K5 ~; Srelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ F& E: v; Q: D) W+ K0 Kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 ^$ o3 i! t2 i! E8 ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ y* P9 T* Y' u+ S2 h- S; w
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 c0 B( u6 l; P
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) w6 z  d% o- v8 I6 sresale price in February is evidence that past prices' v& T7 z: a; P8 M; w
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  c' q# H* k# p3 S6 n- k0 K, a
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 o# `- Q' }0 o' `% _
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* y; b% x5 @. H4 R9 w, ?' S) }  UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; t8 A4 Y* x0 N' N$ e' `
leg down over 2009.
. G: J( M6 j8 ]/ Q3 b
8 T0 B/ L9 X/ S6 E2 d$ g- Y0 E$ @* t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! W. `1 V$ K3 @8 S3 gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
6 m/ E5 D$ [9 @" Z. d
+ p8 t$ x5 o$ [& k  ~
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
! y! Q' l  \/ w) d翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
" X8 t9 [) i0 F/ _( R! a4 p, n' r% O4 E. N" U. q
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments- |/ d2 I4 l, q( Q6 o3 p9 s. l$ a
6 I6 M# S  [' n3 h! }+ e" w' G+ F
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-4 14:14 , Processed in 0.221053 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表