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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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/ ?/ ?  w- }/ xTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
3 P8 B6 i* Y, i. ?* |" A! Q! W, o& W2 W5 H
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. & ?2 g) h0 y) O/ G0 q
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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5 F2 L( T6 m* N- C, g2 }Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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# D- O3 R7 N, q# e* z0 J! ~TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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5 r# G, D3 }6 y. I8 k8 e"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.# i' a! o  |  k6 ?
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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0 t7 h: M$ K8 r7 n# t5 O- a+ V/ j) ~TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,2 k5 a, r) u8 \# @3 I( @1 a$ {# n

2 B% d; F( q3 y3 W" l! o- a  g[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 L& k& x' Q4 I 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。1 j+ o! R6 G- i# l5 c' I8 ]; P( F- U
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 1 K/ ]: J1 ~! S: A; ]8 {& Z. S* i( y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, s- q9 i( z2 K9 g$ J& Q+ O+ {很多人都回学校深造去了! M+ v) K6 K2 N: {9 W1 {, ]4 e
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
* n) S" S4 U- l: o  `( o6 iWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. x( b1 D, Q5 F" T4 p7 Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 k8 v8 f5 b4 Dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. A3 |/ X) A( h! a
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( ?; n3 j- s3 O$ e1 U/ ?formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided8 A. o  y9 D1 A. d% o  v0 u
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold," J2 ^/ v1 x7 H: A. J9 Q
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 }8 N% U- c5 K( A3 @6 G# _9 Zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, t7 x$ K) D& Z7 M2 F% Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( _! v2 e& j1 J
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
* C2 b' l+ }0 s  ~+ y$ g8 V/ Tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. v1 V' A8 V" O8 M; ?3 Y2 F6 {prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* Q, n' V9 Q6 D6 `5 B, X8 A
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 Q+ Y9 E, z2 z5 F% ^- i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, I/ e1 N' N! {% F3 J/ {
30,000 new households will form in the province during
) u& A# F' C9 p2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 u: d. l( x1 V& e1 m: vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 a* b0 y) {& a/ V) w0 B  o9 hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 ]+ ~% e& P0 y4 S1 `during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 z: S) ?" |  J, B. |+ U* @4 i0 \has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: l, z% ~6 _% k" u; Shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* ?3 @% d4 }/ D$ O3 }5 K. g$ Sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging& o( i) N; T. A" m8 z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! y1 \' A+ V0 T# N0 w4 ]! E) [clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ ]2 \- o: i0 W* q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
8 Z! ?8 m* F/ t7 T9 d) `  _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 t7 S% v+ N$ x3 v" E) {4 c
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) S5 x- G& x7 g( P$ ~buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 _2 H. w- E0 Y7 A3 F$ O0 G
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 o2 D: S. i& e. f) N
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747  E5 X( [5 b( [- }% v$ x- o
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 c) c4 g& v* x: Q8 grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ m% U0 N- W  }) c$ N) H
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: O6 _! O  a+ q6 m3 ?1 ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ r, `; p8 F9 T+ e/ v
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 T- ]  j7 [1 m& a+ d" p7 W# W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ E" M% F# P1 U2 h/ x+ Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 v4 M% Q( `) _0 v( x8 }; o
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) k; L! ~+ `7 k% Q) {+ w! K8 e. `* yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan& ~9 R" i5 F% A! [# |$ x
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ ^( B5 Q  R4 i- t" I& R0 {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 k- X; O3 F4 ?( v8 Kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even- v! P# o( D/ x2 W1 V# j) S
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 G: Q3 J1 F* q+ h( z5 t( `# ]* uon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ N! @6 {3 Y: nThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 J6 ^; O. M! d; P3 {resale price in February is evidence that past prices! m% o( z* z6 C, E
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ B  \5 E! U, v$ G. `
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
! a: A: h9 n$ x4 l7 S. ddeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* Q4 t  k$ U' x, mAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%' B. R4 Y- E- L' x8 j$ m9 T
leg down over 2009.' s1 y! ~4 O0 ?/ ~! m

$ _2 _- T) U7 ]; B  m9 |9 f7 G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 J5 n* E! I( M# x4 r- s  KAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. % q+ k0 F, T* B- q# Y
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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