 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta, L0 h; R1 r. w2 [
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, z4 |; I: e2 J, ^5 Rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: A0 i9 ]( r3 A' G8 Z
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
1 k/ E2 l9 H4 C9 t! C4 X( G2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. r. A( ]8 n3 p! L2 @4 I
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 k5 K9 J5 ?+ ]from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ F, L* |; U0 a6 S- \! Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 b! M% }/ N! ?7 C
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous2 F$ t5 ?. D5 T% B5 y
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' n' g; b" o6 U) ^4 _4 T: u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 j7 }9 R; z) C# Y0 S# U8 u
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! l3 Z% d* Q& e. U D5 z0 b
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% y. \! k) n7 \& d3 q% L' t+ h- zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
. g4 d0 Q+ S1 [' |6 j" hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 K+ g' d7 y- E/ M7 d: n
30,000 new households will form in the province during
. j4 l; }6 S1 f% b- [+ z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 X* i, C9 z) G+ bEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 u* ~7 C* L% q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 H9 L$ Y6 H3 E4 t4 v+ K, a* W# l
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& ]4 o1 G1 L! O! T. Y8 u5 \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 Q9 ^6 e# W' H- r3 x' i
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; R+ l+ w* r+ m$ G1 K& jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 B) ]& ?# W7 K9 k3 }sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ A b9 Z# T( ^clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( X' T3 K- e5 H- q# ~7 v: Xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! \& p- o7 R8 l, n" r6 [; O
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% C$ F1 ^) o( U7 T
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 n7 Y. \' n/ n$ Xbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in R( p! y$ t1 L6 V$ o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. f; }, |/ ~- { g# Junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& e' W# Q: t! c) v2 ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' U# t/ X! \% v' P8 A7 l" i( Grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 W* J, _9 Z; D" J* w, o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 H! `% Y2 Y- N7 O" Lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" v8 S6 y' T" n0 F( lof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
7 b; [ e# s: H4 A8 grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 @, h! X- I/ D H) x" G6 FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
+ j2 ], O+ u9 {+ A( Z7 L! K/ G* {- oboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.1 y6 {* q6 x( v* Z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 J% X6 T2 J# G3 xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 l4 _3 H8 `8 F' z9 ?
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale g8 |, b7 M# j% v+ C
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 S( [& M1 l# u, B5 ]
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners! x% K( `( i% L$ Q9 L
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. J$ g3 C( O4 {
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# K, E. G4 a, r! fresale price in February is evidence that past prices
& G) S! G3 d9 h: ~6 Jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ U2 L; S5 }9 n
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 Q2 j O& P8 S4 Edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 x7 {9 x4 E3 \6 j N6 pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! M% \) S% R a
leg down over 2009.* Q+ t3 O; Y! A% B" O0 T( |
- b- j, ` d( d. I0 D
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|