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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
; v6 {' I/ ?4 ~+ i; n9 k1 I1 R+ TWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 B" p( l5 Q* G7 x) |" h& p
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! R. @% ^' Z4 F m' m
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 p6 O1 X; N$ I6 }2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; U1 `& C: M3 a9 j* y" A: s3 _9 tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ \# W. o, T6 {& l; Rfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, U3 K0 i8 F" Y3 E3 j u3 V
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! R8 N* K" [4 Q9 W1 l
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous4 l' L1 J# S; g X/ b: D" c' G
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed% o: k: C5 k# Z$ {( @0 w
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; b7 q5 P0 y3 \: q& C9 |' t/ nto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' N7 ]3 Q* h( n) R2 ^
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: g, E6 _6 y8 |) ^; e
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* G2 D- V. l+ n+ p/ p) \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) }! c; m6 D0 U/ x% [' W, N! h
30,000 new households will form in the province during% a+ s" Q8 y% o, Y8 X
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 f" L# f7 B2 Q; E* ]* z1 U7 {( B( JEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
' c5 E0 D) t+ m/ v& ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! o" J) ~& W6 _4 N5 ]- mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. y. i0 Y+ v( d5 q. p
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 n. G N! B+ x0 b' ~households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% a; ?: D8 N* X- zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- O8 F1 ^" t- A# X" b! m! B: J
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 E1 |& C; b" j& ^, }% t+ a; m0 N) l# w
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
7 M- U$ m0 b' v& N, S! B& yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! q/ O3 L- Z m9 H" R* ?" E
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: T1 H$ \3 H. s# esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 c; M) s) P0 T* U ?) Xbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. |' ?! ]: f- r4 T7 Ktwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 Z# B0 \8 u$ K9 `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( S# G9 e k, e1 r; P/ hunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 m- z5 T( ]" T9 {8 N0 W
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* C7 W$ F, `2 `; Uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 H* @, w5 w& ?
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ h; y) R5 m2 \( p& P v2 k% Dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
+ b/ }1 m, M: X2 t9 Jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 \) E- w5 f2 xThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. r$ t" ?, G5 u" l2 y9 cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; L7 T5 n: N5 i+ o+ l. wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan4 ^2 a# }& p* N- e# N! d" E
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 e( n7 Z0 g* _ n3 b- M, D. f8 @relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" `! Y. D$ w* _4 Wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even; `% j+ o& m8 D9 i! K) ~
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
2 ^( V% I# U" ^: b1 d7 `& Z qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* ?0 A$ Q! o6 O; d0 IThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average% |' p4 ?; [) x
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 Z# K+ \& \5 `) lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. ]; D3 n$ _1 W1 S$ Lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- p- I8 B9 l7 h
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( b- J8 S! w l4 j. u5 i; ~Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
2 n2 ]3 z/ D4 s2 E' O4 L2 Xleg down over 2009.; t/ d2 r# t- @( J9 K6 Z9 s" ~
" d5 ^5 b/ o4 {1 g# ~+ b: R& P }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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