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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.6 k) T2 L6 t- `$ P2 Q$ S6 u4 U

! u) R5 a# P6 x0 P% R3 OTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
6 Z4 O" ^6 H+ `9 H; l2 s
# Q" P7 ^$ Y( s7 ?/ SThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . f3 T- }5 m9 G% ^- S

1 z( F2 }4 [, [- m5 a"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 0 r& }, k6 `* g$ H+ t. @* t7 I

7 E  [  W9 x& N9 VNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. J5 _3 \  }1 h; A4 u) v  M# g

0 F( s3 w# ~6 T4 bTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.5 ]. \$ `# l) k

9 l& b; o; Q( \. k& j9 I& h"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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, i/ }$ W% {4 P/ X: ]! |3 V4 Q; IMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.   t! n; W4 [. a
, r( p) A, c9 [/ t. ]
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

& q3 L) S, [! W/ L; m, c" j1 T. |' C5 ?- D% }1 N; _' D3 k! Q
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- y2 M7 M) n; Q& w( n! O8 |

" \! J: H: L% J' b[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 S% M# W7 q) Q# J, h 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. |$ s% Q, {  n; x$ L
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
& `) A6 I8 f% {8 L. y跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了3 I" e2 `5 ]) [$ M7 e, u8 N" Y
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta9 J9 S: F+ S* m. N# a( C5 c
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 ]* ^" O6 [& `% C( @% h; t; B6 |
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  @" I  T) w. Hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) f/ o9 o7 v" K& e2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 I5 m9 M0 J2 q3 B: X. z  M
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, P4 N2 m/ G4 V7 y# `9 K! e, Z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,* h+ p/ r" o/ C) f. j
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 T3 j. T7 ~- L2 e) q( Dmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, \" R5 D1 G1 D+ c9 ~2 G: C1 [" npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed& ^" m* Q: m2 ^- R/ Z
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ i" G3 K1 o4 v3 p9 Mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 \+ q4 V. j0 P* k" }) j) p% cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* @6 }% g* N; Y& l9 S9 X
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" ~; j( K' J3 rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( r9 {; \- L9 k5 b/ H6 ?30,000 new households will form in the province during; j/ r" Y& A4 X1 h$ U
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ P) T1 c" i, w( Y7 WEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& f; T- e6 S. U0 Z
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( w* l- O( d) g% |during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 R; q$ G4 P' d2 y+ ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; a0 Y# Z! a' v8 G4 @: ]households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' f  }4 Z, I/ t& Bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- a, _' k, U/ A) Y  bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; E- q- g2 }% T
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
6 K+ a9 |0 ?, c0 j) V8 j$ ^excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! P3 C/ o" _! I( k1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, o3 a, u+ `& m& h+ F4 B& p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- G9 @4 K; `! a1 [# ?/ f# d, a1 Mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( W1 t3 f9 Q2 ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 V0 q. e) ^1 K0 m; f; T7 O/ Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* w2 a, j# J! z+ @+ H" U
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 W7 R( |  k5 q" V: t3 @/ P
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 ?3 p3 _! U( [5 L4 c, {1 N
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s4 F8 M: r* G6 c5 }9 C
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
  V- ]; x1 Y: @# G8 ~2 S  rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* W2 D1 P5 ^$ \/ e) W* R* Irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ Y: X% ~& b/ a0 p' HThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. J  _. z& w. z% s, {& ]+ ?
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
3 C8 s) a7 ~/ TAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
. N3 E7 H% z" b2 W, mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* L1 @0 _. \* h6 O( J5 brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  X% K) S* j* m; A; B* T0 x& E! Fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% g* |# F" H' ]3 V1 h* Pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- l( H9 u5 R* n+ ]0 Y' a% Fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! ?( b1 b1 `% \6 B6 Y0 FThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
' N, g" ~0 y9 {3 [/ Eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% \6 _% m. T! b) uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* G8 H7 _" k/ ~% G. h
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. {  s( e/ Y2 W( [' q) ]9 ^3 \deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) p1 g$ l+ E. n" E/ gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. m& Z$ a% H1 G7 `; Q1 F
leg down over 2009.9 B" Q- Q. R# F6 ?0 M' l' @& h/ m

! a- r9 \; b- L: Y$ ^" P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. {# l3 t8 e$ N* W2 n' C/ xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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6 L5 x" R* w. |4 M1 Z( ^" s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. - R& i5 w" E0 s# Q6 _
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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( X1 Z7 y9 M. B8 W, ~; `6 {2 \2 vhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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/ W/ n  P4 ?0 ~# c* j; W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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