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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. - v  B, X; O6 u' X/ y6 D& j6 l

; d( ]3 w8 r( f* T. E+ v& r4 C$ aThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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  u4 \# f2 t! O0 i+ }" O"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. , h" c, H- H4 [  z
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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6 y- t* c+ k6 F  Y+ F3 YTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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( j/ K. Z% N& c9 C"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 6 H! T7 f# g) Z

6 T( D* l2 b+ S4 ]. Y# U& f, F( G0 X: hTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.' r: }* v" o7 W* t* s- t
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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" ^& B. E& b0 k, ], h8 ^6 Jhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! }. |8 i. ~7 T% b" c* i4 x
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。0 `5 [- L0 s. g8 K4 H  F
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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0 `" f& c: q6 S9 y/ C5 ~[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 2 h1 n+ G9 U+ i! e3 Q) |6 a- o
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

3 J$ e. E0 o5 u# t很多人都回学校深造去了* n9 p* F, p  \5 X4 k- v9 ^% E
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 Z* n! e! c& _" ]
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 S7 C) K6 D8 s: W$ {, mboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 F$ W9 I/ [* E. e, O" O' Oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' h/ w- i+ H! Y) u3 q4 S+ O7 w2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 S( b! ~0 [$ J# e6 y* w, E0 V( }formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: q* |8 Q6 a9 m' R$ @# U+ i
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 ]) Z, s+ Q7 R* J2 dthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( F8 F3 y* F2 j6 d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 k/ Z' E7 e' l/ T, \pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. H( P/ H0 j5 }, H! v: l
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 p4 @6 Q. l3 h1 zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; _* z6 k+ E6 }" ^( k& A7 F7 a. u- Uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 }3 {- E1 x: B6 l
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 A% V. t8 N! l# v1 bhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ S5 }  m$ r. j2 j
30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 I/ ~, q( J5 Y% @. [# P% R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% {; z$ W& @; ^* i
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; Q  h% C8 S+ t# {( N7 b+ J
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- j( q6 a$ q+ S" M; K5 kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) L# `& E7 r5 X3 _. a) ^) ^, C( \" ^) m
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 D3 V+ e. ^# Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ @% i8 ~5 V( G
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging4 _5 P: T! R) @
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. @: w( P) E& s1 w5 j& ]9 |+ r
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& S2 x& x& G/ o( d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of; p- A  s: T" _8 W
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a7 o$ s; R6 m& r* g+ _6 t
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 g8 \4 w9 z" ~6 Q0 ?1 M
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& y  t2 _, E* P8 o3 Itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
6 z% r0 j  q. e6 runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
- m. w3 p+ ]8 }* iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest' t% `; W* ?! z$ N% L+ F& Q+ o7 y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 g9 B; h! u" i6 m0 z: i" N
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 A( v  R- D% f% [9 d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( y+ I- R3 Y' M  e1 c- u( J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 s) Q! a1 i. S+ x1 X5 Rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 p/ A/ J' Q5 |6 Z2 ]6 {
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) A0 D) I/ @$ Q0 s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; e/ J& a" J  v' j7 XAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
% S' m3 V& ?6 V8 z! @housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. j+ J* c) y$ Q7 T- jrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" P+ B2 u- b" B8 \0 n$ r# ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 |% W' w, g9 E, C- c. R+ O# X0 H5 X
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( M. W' r3 ]0 W9 r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.  @; u: n" s$ A/ h
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
2 q% i; p- \, a2 @) Z) k4 K! L; g% }resale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 h# G2 V, {* O; j9 {" ?5 O  Uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: n* g4 x* u6 c4 i7 G9 p
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. a% A1 K5 x& C- u7 ^& h8 G0 j
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 }! Q! s% l8 ?& N8 e" i* {+ J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* a+ |; y1 g$ Vleg down over 2009.  r; j. K& o/ T
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
$ \2 N0 Q! J' ~" M  u3 U" gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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/ C' \# x" `- \/ _# g1 L6 z, P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. $ B  V' E( \" [. z9 @9 v: I
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子: r4 L  T# C* v/ m7 y6 P0 ^) m; u

& T, l$ Y. h: Q9 ^. K% V/ yhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments" I& a0 D3 ~& [8 F

" ], V, z9 ]* N0 d7 i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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