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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" ]# u- U; u/ Y( C( T3 |! E1 x+ {Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; P8 f7 k% @$ I8 v
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
# C6 T/ h0 |; Q6 y% |are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: p3 X3 u( {- D$ ^( c/ e& ^4 T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 j9 Q% @$ F" Q9 hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 E, k" H+ k4 v) H( f% {3 ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ f2 h7 e8 O* A d2 G! O0 c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and# z2 A9 |. x4 Y3 c H, P' l
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! J4 `9 ^3 N5 }pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed' D9 h* I, e3 a$ g K7 I
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 X; b2 E; z7 f8 R- C* |& w3 d4 W
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 w8 ^" C' s3 _( i, ~prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 t7 D: M' z' q# F: x/ ]* ^5 r5 _year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
6 ?$ j' K. h# q1 B+ Qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 w" D4 J7 x- L) r% s3 U, q30,000 new households will form in the province during3 P& N& F! ?- W; ^) w
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; l, K2 p8 K2 i s# A
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( g6 I H5 m8 t8 O/ M
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 ?) ?) M2 @* pduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 p% \6 p2 |0 X% C; w7 qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- e' K, ~8 h( O, w
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals0 a j) E; _: V( F( s1 L8 {7 E
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* _+ A. I+ u; u2 Q" x" o1 d& M
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) h+ z, T- P' f! \, M
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) Q X6 u9 i" J" E% e
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ x6 V, M+ I+ Y7 g) I
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# f' {4 ^" u' o4 q0 ]
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
; q L" w4 Z/ x6 T- {1 qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# i* g3 w% J: t0 x9 l# Q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in$ k" [4 k: Y: K. y- r) ^2 v" i2 M2 W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ a( X) N, s/ N7 @) L1 `3 Gunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& g5 d. l* o" J% H& ?# ^& Jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; |) X+ n9 p- b. G& uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s& M7 A3 W3 E* Q' l5 s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& T3 m, l" u4 F- s
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 p* E8 g- G5 T7 i
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% C! g0 i% }9 Z# M+ L: aThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
0 r k1 v) v' }# n( X- J5 T1 cboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 E* G" }# |. b& @0 t/ k
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan5 g, v+ j& M- h) e/ `
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ K( v4 R6 e0 `4 `% G& {9 G$ H. frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 i8 v0 J) w/ d! H; @prices substantially eroded affordability and, even# ?, _ l) b/ Y1 E' [9 J
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ c8 s7 ~8 ]& F2 ?9 b, g
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.6 D8 T5 J; W8 `7 `9 F
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: J$ B K! ]' |6 eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 ] \' J: v) r( m* m3 i* bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 G4 r7 y# b ]8 R1 W
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ h @ Z# v9 N2 @. |' p B
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* r; K& z/ P7 T R9 DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( T" N5 t: ]- X$ N( Tleg down over 2009.
% Y' h5 [) M f$ t
4 i* t- j" B& m, o% y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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