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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.6 l" n0 f( o6 C) i
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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" ]2 y+ Y- Q- J$ q2 K7 x9 c& BThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. , s8 ^" m4 Y2 u
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. * y3 [5 r, ?  g) I
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.' K1 z! P/ R# ]
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* |+ k2 t, i/ k8 \8 ]* ~
1 n" Z+ b% O& s  `
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ) Y% t. a- P; }5 i* A7 J
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.* z9 P1 W! ]3 j: W# ]& u7 j
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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9 |* ]5 l1 q( W6 z) _1 |http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! d9 X3 D$ K9 Q1 i) P" G% ^5 \
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
3 i+ n, R+ q, ]4 n0 ~1 u& z 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 y# ?5 @. u/ F- @

$ T5 t; I2 @0 C[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
( i# K! G' ]8 d7 V跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
, Q7 }3 Q( S* s% E3 j嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( S2 I" l* k. j4 \% q( D
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 l; k4 V# U* M7 s- R  l" r
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  L: j; m9 F6 p$ S+ m; F5 ~4 B9 I
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. m6 J( C7 w; c
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) ?7 |7 Y1 M( p8 P
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% ~% ?* f$ [# n7 }from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% _' n+ ?8 M5 zthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
4 ^! E: j/ l" @5 |( e( y+ {% Z) fmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ _7 x$ y4 X- r# _6 e0 [# i4 L0 [pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 F9 I& y; ]" U( B. D( [7 T; Z& b; W3 x
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ H. S! N: _) R* R# c7 d1 dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 q2 r1 {2 f3 C, q8 tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( V) m" Q6 r0 D1 M% F4 O+ c
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, w5 Q& m$ \$ ], ~+ S2 [
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 {# F5 t* ^2 J( Q( [
30,000 new households will form in the province during
- V2 I1 i8 a; M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 d2 \! d* d  y8 z( i/ |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
* i2 Z5 i: S8 Q, c8 e5 fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& p( c5 S# V+ K2 m2 |& k* bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: o, u* E( d" q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) z$ x# Y& A* V0 W
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ F6 W9 C3 Q! S  ~% y! D5 C4 i2 S
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging( @* E. n& u- ^. V0 ~4 D  d
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories  m" ~7 O/ q& U
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# x. E6 p9 K" [7 b6 C
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
( C( ~6 o% d$ A, ]1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ B, F5 U, F/ y3 Z+ r. vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
) O5 Y. ^9 _- O# V6 [' `$ xbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- b% O% {+ U: |5 [
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ ~/ c3 O/ a0 J  I" M5 e3 U1 B2 }
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) ~' P3 h. K# I- A
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- J1 T; D9 b* K
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' y- |2 T" U$ z$ L3 l3 C, a
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* ?+ y0 v8 w$ l; |1 F0 p- xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' {4 Q) k1 `0 b
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled  ^9 u/ i& H8 r, y1 J3 w' |" w$ m
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.  ]0 a3 f6 w5 o& I7 @4 J" C
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 z. \4 ~! _0 b- y' ~1 i; O: n: W; G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 Z2 T  v. {- D# wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( Q5 M  I6 t: H( X0 v: ^6 E
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 _8 z: n4 k5 E1 J
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 s- t+ G6 h' ]: N5 W. k1 h8 V
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! k3 y0 j% f! q* }+ c* w8 T7 Y$ vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" |- f: b; N2 X( @! \+ y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 \' ^# M! q7 D2 Z' x4 F7 [2 CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" e$ [% ~/ `6 @. B" i
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 ?) E9 y4 B9 {2 Oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  e0 x8 K( B) T; R) X' c6 ^6 d; J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 }' x+ ~! T: s
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) [' }: \9 U/ ~+ w3 t2 f  A7 `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) o; k# L* d; L5 W7 G# ~1 tAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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: {; I3 Q0 q3 j. c5 Z% z2 A1 {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 6 X, U& P; j9 c& B) C& N% C
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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: A9 Y/ g, U8 w$ y. Nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments/ ]6 V( C, n& ]7 ?
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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