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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.% g! n' j# E4 e. Z+ P, K
2 j# E# g' C/ A( Y
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. % u8 u! m" A* G: ?/ @: V0 h2 i
0 s% x& ?+ |1 ?# A
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
4 l8 F3 i* {9 N* P- @  z; @: p' q* r& e9 _  S2 B
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
, C2 a% K3 O# q+ r' o
8 I% F  N9 j: G4 [3 ONow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
, k# ~- q  _$ K+ u( m3 N' j9 o5 ^1 e- n
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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/ U4 o8 r1 z3 i: j" Y% S"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. / I; P$ j! H. x& r, g0 c) E; H

5 x4 p2 |( F+ u) P0 DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 5 t( H6 W% d  @: B! O- e

  k" t, a3 C3 y" Shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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$ J% S' m8 h' s& D) wTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,) T  U# t( Z5 \2 T3 c7 @  h2 \( M
/ t/ Y7 P5 ?% p; V7 s3 ]
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。+ p( y9 K# V( `
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* _1 Z, e9 Q/ \% ~" [

% _$ ~) l9 @0 P* M/ u  r& c/ V( D[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
( l5 K" h) L" R3 D( ^. c跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

  _: S6 A0 h. v/ M: a* z0 z4 N/ C很多人都回学校深造去了4 h7 g; P( d, |- d: e
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta: T" q  R4 k& N! b( v
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% a0 E8 h* Q& z( `, l7 Fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 u  T4 E: B8 Q' L% s" Gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' j) O0 W3 d2 x0 G- A( U2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
* O: G) U% U# t+ H+ Xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: y. z6 M" P) p: s: R
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, h5 J4 D' u% y+ x- s5 ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! `. ]. r! G4 v3 mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 K# j. ~% _) v( b4 ~* b$ J8 Mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- e0 @' B8 B. t. @' F: e* C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
. ^9 l9 ]4 ~: r/ w- s' S4 Vto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 l! [% m, R0 F% b- qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: [4 Y, o, T% [: @% x& J5 ^9 nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 d" ~7 Z' i$ G' y3 [
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
4 ]- ]' G5 z8 R3 u30,000 new households will form in the province during0 D, R$ ?) L$ ^5 b2 e5 w8 {6 ]9 T2 D
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% _7 f; E" H6 d0 F& P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; k, C6 B+ t. J0 {7 p6 M+ Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ g+ H. p! \7 ]! g- ]during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 ^# R8 W: q7 x1 }6 q! f3 ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# p; Q  ]& @6 o; f" m
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 W/ e# C/ m' F. f+ [
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ K+ @6 q; S: L4 `1 t7 s& Q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
% V& W+ G5 |  G! S: A: }clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
3 C5 _. i% T8 N/ F" z# }. fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ L) p; Y+ S1 I! |" o7 ^1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* Y4 s  i# g6 v+ |: Z/ Ssales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 n; s" [# g+ R3 M( o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; A1 b6 i- H/ f8 |1 e/ D8 y% t
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 b# |6 a- Z  l0 L( tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ \- P6 k3 K  w7 Funsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest6 F/ t9 }- v. y3 `6 n/ b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
: O6 v, m1 Z9 C# [2 jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: H+ F8 a8 X0 j# q- n0 M" Ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 e$ M9 ^2 n3 a3 Z8 H+ ~. ?of new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 f3 Y7 L  e: f' q* g% N; e: N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.7 G# H( Q; \: a+ O2 r
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# {, p4 j! L! ~2 j! I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; s- F+ }; f- p3 |6 J0 ^2 I" R
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan  k0 k7 u- ^  ~) W3 }
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
3 V* x$ |- A$ T& C- Frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! A1 Y  R( S1 e, R2 r# Q5 N( [
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 ^$ F* v1 g5 t6 athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: O7 D- \8 T' E+ H1 A$ |! B$ [; ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 c' ?. ]5 n6 L4 ~
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
" A$ K8 b/ a3 v, o, presale price in February is evidence that past prices' V8 Z* [/ ]5 G* @- l3 `9 B3 F
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 f+ `, G0 T# v  D6 Y  B4 L" |1 B  Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 L, c- ]3 `6 s1 U& Q/ ]% Fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 P  C; `% Z) `7 B
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%9 b; _; p& r5 _! g! M' s: m6 p
leg down over 2009.8 i( F# K' E) \: S

0 P7 Y) L! C! H- A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 g, f; j9 C0 A, h/ z. P+ g4 g; P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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, f! d1 Z. W% b* c( k+ `. i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ) _* f  O/ q7 ^: V( K+ r. y. |
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子- y6 _/ }# v6 H6 F7 s( p2 D" |6 f

+ w' ~* |' N) p+ mhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments4 s3 D, p" d7 P( V

- D3 V7 Z. o3 H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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