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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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: |  d# Y# G& _* N& U- LTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ; r3 ]6 n' ^; }+ {

4 y- F) h8 o& O9 l8 n"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 8 o5 E; s% ^% u  `) c( v( b

( s  }4 S3 z7 c0 I9 [8 x) yNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.4 x9 e: W7 }2 O. i

% m1 G+ k* R0 b' T5 ]TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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( T1 G+ K3 [2 d; T( V, V"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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: {+ @3 h: Q" D0 V) mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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4 q$ A2 r& t0 ?  e# `Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ; r+ t2 [1 n) \

' ~; @9 t1 ~/ {4 F6 T  _( |http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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$ N+ K1 x3 x! C' pTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 @. ?3 E' @/ r/ s0 ]

2 `: k  l& g! n[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。1 K9 l4 Z0 O  V) H2 j+ [, g0 v5 l
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ( y+ T* r) {2 @8 S' l
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了4 O# T0 s. B9 W
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta* Z3 [1 |, H+ L/ P% T, V
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 c* E- u5 e" @! \0 Vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 {2 f6 T. Q  h9 v
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. o2 h1 [: I, v5 d
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# H8 s2 F. n$ V- G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 {5 @( c. a0 Y6 Qfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, O* S, f* x3 o5 I* R; ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% l$ y6 B" f2 g: v/ Smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 M6 r1 `# A# G- hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! v7 L7 w7 w1 w1 `" _2 X, s9 d/ h
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 L& Q! e+ H+ X# c. Rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year- e  X+ `% H* H, I9 W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 V! |' v. U* A' ^8 S
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,  a: q1 Y* v) E1 U! @, X. ]( L
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ f7 l8 P+ V6 N30,000 new households will form in the province during
' Y8 A( n7 n* O1 F; X2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
' t- P* K( y& x; |7 e, XEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; _% o. y% p, S' v$ ^6 f4 C3 m
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- B9 V7 S. N% U! Cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ i' g- E$ p" z  D" M8 Chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% r) f; k$ U- j5 o; F( B
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 N5 F  G4 K1 z7 S
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
  _1 x5 T: b; m1 Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' O8 T$ M* k/ W; j8 }9 Yclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
9 k' ^3 {# ~6 Y! i6 Yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 K# E- l7 n8 N1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# \" ?3 m5 A) c) h5 r5 E/ dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 Q* _' B' M% N7 s
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 p4 n+ h) M' \+ |" Z, \
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ t/ m3 A0 x# j2 c1 J/ x; q$ l8 s! vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 |* i9 s7 i  b$ _5 u% xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- M2 n# v1 z7 C* h  j5 g+ `5 s
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 w( |# {6 [' c' W+ A9 b- e
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; W2 m8 V2 T- ~# u* _
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 v% o1 y" @4 H7 ?
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled9 o9 o5 c, s1 @8 N! ?
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# ?% c8 b' j. Z; R2 `- y* X9 c4 a
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
& R# t, p8 H# g3 Jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 l& T0 `% ]* \$ y4 P
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: Z, o- l/ {* c" x2 ^1 Yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced, M8 L: P3 |  D! p+ m3 c
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) F6 K* ]8 d" l' p/ `6 uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ y7 c: p  D( Z/ n( R# M
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 w/ j% i$ T) ?0 ?! H
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ g" g( S$ O6 ^4 U
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% V; f7 o: R* `; ~resale price in February is evidence that past prices5 G7 P# v9 w' V0 q! k
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
$ b) m- ~8 R5 p) o/ [homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& N& P* b2 s% `4 W3 w  `1 [6 @
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 P# M' q5 `+ E, r  k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ G# Q- T# Q( _2 j- e" hleg down over 2009.& b1 _' s3 o* N1 S% B

1 G, ]3 O% o2 \- W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( o4 j- C! ~  h5 X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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: a7 {2 r: g9 l. X" \0 O- ~- Z4 m9 O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 4 ^& h& A" q! F; f- g" ^+ F! Q5 f
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子1 L: K+ I: e! k8 z9 {1 e
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. c5 V% N* d. l6 O4 a) _
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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