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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.* A8 t% j& w. c0 Q
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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/ r- K# ?/ F* \- ^( d# C" XThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
* q1 @: }, ~8 w3 q! f& w3 i+ l+ o, r
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 3 D# M+ k4 e5 D. I* Y0 L

; C  m, N+ I3 x$ m$ `Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. - j, A9 m( T; Y& H" g7 C' m* l. K

. q( J" J# O# ?7 ~9 K8 Zhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,) e! S8 B4 i7 k& r% d0 {) m

1 F1 K  F5 A: j! c: f[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" f# J$ C1 E3 V- W 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* a& \( Y& S& o5 ^& q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

- c0 p+ V- S: t! v很多人都回学校深造去了
6 G2 T9 [8 z) }+ b& Q嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta$ ?5 h# o6 o# _- ]4 }* _
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 Y: t$ \+ N5 N3 _$ p$ k
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% H( _1 N* p9 p6 W: z; `
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
. ]9 f" O1 q$ p1 C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- E. d7 Y% H# t9 q' B" j1 b' t, \
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! x2 @* ?; A4 J* P3 ^8 u/ lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 @! O0 j3 v5 M; U6 D
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
8 d4 |7 f, {2 G% \/ G6 x1 Umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# h% f9 o! X# Y" L0 wpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 o% ]4 [0 m, _& hprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
4 k( W; A4 D* @' k7 E* Nto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. g: b# E4 F9 L9 P5 Q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& y' R5 b* `6 [' @( T! {8 `9 xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
  G& S7 Q9 F( y) ~3 U: y0 d3 phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, _1 g) v. k3 B; ~8 t. \: B  `  X30,000 new households will form in the province during
. k( m& S& T' Z; e2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& x3 a" Z3 t; p0 R5 t  n: pEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
+ O  s0 F+ n( i5 e% z0 Yhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' ?  i9 v7 l& a0 X8 I
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  b& x6 M) \' n$ l/ J
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! {6 Z0 p* f' N4 z% n) n  Lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: l) B/ [8 Y! Y' jduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 \8 p: D% \/ R8 G  R4 K: F, e- xsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
& m9 V+ Q0 |" N+ Aclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 \# u/ {  W8 X# T
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
) m& ~+ f( N7 Q" Q, L" E* ?/ E1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ \0 H3 y  z8 g! ~  @* |, lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# y  E" E7 U1 v, t  o, q* @$ F
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in4 \* M  `6 K) C) _+ X+ [
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 a, J" U/ Q' W" W& X
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 h' u+ M! `$ G# {2 N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* x5 K" y2 b: yrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 I) r7 o( I$ B5 Y+ N! J
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ o0 ^7 q! C! |0 N+ B+ F# l3 b+ B, _major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 T! e' G" n- Zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
$ Z# g" L" i$ E3 c' xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 R2 h; k% |! w# n+ s! R1 i! BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: A" V. H6 L1 r' l; l' R/ l
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% u# y9 q) {. v; _Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 {2 @; {. ^1 i* e  ?2 T( q& M4 i
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. B+ i/ ^# M8 ~% q" m9 G* Wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  K& X* E1 ~5 b/ F  Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even/ Y" I5 C% A9 N3 V
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& n1 |2 n) z1 c+ M6 p$ M! Gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
  K+ ]+ e* N' o( S5 t/ m& W0 b; u1 d. cThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, j- K) B! ^* p6 eresale price in February is evidence that past prices
5 F9 g/ }% s% p( R" @. `0 Yexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  v; _3 N' Y* x) U" _$ ~
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’6 C5 d# B5 l$ \& s+ K* F! I* K" E
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! h$ N8 I5 }0 yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
# m! D- j; j0 ^- e6 [leg down over 2009.9 @% r1 O% G$ `! F2 z4 y/ K
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 I+ T' b$ L0 \  M+ T* c0 Z7 ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ' H) D7 Q8 T! A8 F
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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