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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.' d( x! b# b; v

! T; z$ M2 B/ }TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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+ `) x+ `/ k; e. r0 ]6 k5 G: v! V"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. " b6 X+ C' V6 d$ {& Y

0 S2 G( Z; h$ ?+ Q0 h- N7 a! ~# z4 NNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.9 E5 Y: b* j4 ~) |$ U2 g2 X- o
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.' b5 f5 Z3 c! v+ n3 Q. M, j2 r
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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! Y7 q* J: ~+ K+ g& a8 ZTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ) o; A% P$ u; D& D8 ^9 D0 q
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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7 o. l1 K6 j3 h, \  q! _8 GTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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$ o4 ]" P8 j, U6 s[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
+ B; C, g6 s% h+ | 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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  g  e$ b% |* `[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 $ f8 R+ ?1 ?7 U0 B
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了3 Z& O/ P5 z* j* p" @* y' J
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta' S" }7 {* y. H" e: W- ?& @
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  B! F4 r+ C" x8 [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ ~- T$ ~/ R6 v, Z$ X: ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ d) m1 {  i/ R2 H8 O
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) o" Q7 l. U! _7 I5 x; \+ t1 h  \3 R3 E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) t9 B  p' ?5 [6 O5 n- A9 p
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; y% K3 G' [" `  X4 i
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and5 M9 h, ^2 [: s' e' H; z& n3 z% k
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' G) E! @! R& a7 n2 Upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 V3 F* Y- x- j9 u, `, \$ T
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 ^" A* C. R3 z" n4 H+ v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
1 q6 v! K! E1 d) sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- M- e! C  c- I6 r$ k$ i
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* a4 u" q7 {1 v% \6 y% G2 k1 Ohomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' Z1 ~4 D# I) a" t  h30,000 new households will form in the province during, u2 i) f$ ]& K, e6 ~2 [2 O: n
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. V! b5 i" B4 _0 C! I0 \
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( ]  k7 w% T$ ^7 E" |( C9 _homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% s* b" I: A. M
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# {! l2 h9 v  w5 |has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ c  }  q( e* h: e0 i& N/ Qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- W* C5 F- X. n9 R
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 T2 m% Z, u1 ~$ V8 j* U" \
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# q$ J* J0 L3 E3 d  A; [0 l0 i* Qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* n6 Q- A: T3 c  u: [
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% q% G  F- Y' `7 D  M3 _1 Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
8 O$ c8 w3 T) H) r& G: @6 q- Rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, l3 m5 T/ y/ j$ s- @) y+ g! s' Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) ~& |7 O8 q  ~/ ~' i! _7 b
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in! s/ Y% \$ o4 `( R1 e% d
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 \  L& z' i& z6 `. y3 l4 [unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest( v0 C( H- w+ I: ]
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 V, ~7 S: s0 E( h/ S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: v* e, v# L* V, R  R
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories( R5 S3 H- {  k* `' d! v+ s5 F
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 z- S0 v# r, b  h
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ e* w1 S1 }8 o9 A( y/ {
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 i' X0 |6 o5 Z! \
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: U% L2 b. {9 \! J! rAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
* ]! c' ^" P# [9 Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced6 q" {! F- V4 D6 \; q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( G" K' E! z1 _/ @( ^9 s) b/ |prices substantially eroded affordability and, even& P/ I! S! |0 o8 K. Y6 f
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners" w$ b, z& n' w% ~$ P$ o
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 S- S, Y, S  r! i8 M/ hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( @. @6 h$ p+ Z. z, ^
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 w$ u4 n; y. W5 Nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: z4 V  L2 Z! x7 c+ j  Shomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 D2 g1 U* {9 V% z
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ v# J1 V$ A# U$ f# \  T, f$ dAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ f2 }# p5 u6 |, [
leg down over 2009.: t# |7 O5 U7 p! c8 [

. _: J% F! y1 A7 p9 u0 [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' J0 t5 q' G# t( p6 k+ L
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.   ]0 {1 y& r9 g
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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