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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 V( C$ r& V6 W1 g- [Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% p% G6 Z- C g0 aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 F. h& e" a! M" h* @! y& F
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ K4 \, W3 Q% K% Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household& z0 I0 F8 _/ G3 M2 W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, p( A: c2 f# ?# X; @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 S0 D% A, u- x& {1 @
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# [+ d! Q1 G) r0 ^8 `; Pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- C. G8 j1 y2 n& C. C/ @( ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' g3 {- w$ y! i0 C/ nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined9 v+ x* g1 D- M- \4 H
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- H9 m( s* J$ E+ tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 U1 `9 v+ W9 p1 K. d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,+ v2 d/ v1 ?: Q/ e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 R( Y9 [! L2 ?: w/ s: K2 a0 ^
30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 B! N! ~ k7 |: q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 l& ^* c. K7 n& F; z0 b" [$ QEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' [+ e. Z* s* {; f2 h6 f1 j0 y, l
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# G* K& h0 c z( }8 dduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' s9 S8 m! {- g7 `
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 c# f+ T7 o& s: @households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 U% J/ y2 m3 D, h5 Xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 y9 M+ d0 S5 M* S8 }
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 e' H( S4 b( C7 e: Tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& [1 w n4 ]; Bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 x4 P1 r" S n0 g1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a2 J/ H! a' J3 e5 T4 F% P2 C3 H$ P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- P! h( b/ h$ Q
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, a8 ]! q8 L, W& H0 C# W2 @two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
; N8 [3 Y/ k- z& qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ K: f" b% k: l( v2 {, m* r: S0 y5 Xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
: q" C9 n) F# z" p, s% Z% s$ }$ | crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
+ d' p: O$ l: K9 y9 rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 p/ |7 z. p4 gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ M+ P& P3 O4 I" y4 b- z$ Sof new singles, and, with demand having cooled, b# |8 b$ U! Y; O7 e! n2 k" |: ]
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ ]% r) y* B0 kThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. }! n- U- t' sboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 H6 C7 d3 I# h( `$ t% c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! X0 l$ Z& Z3 Chousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ F Q* u7 \; s6 w5 ] X0 {3 v: q+ ~relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 y. i" B) E2 ^! H5 S" @# bprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 ?/ j# o7 Z' n, [: \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' F, l$ `5 ^- |* k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable. T" ?) M7 U, q: h& j# i- Z* I7 ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! P9 K' N" x/ K! kresale price in February is evidence that past prices
! |: |. e7 }4 C" b4 V! p6 Texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- O h" S1 V5 W/ m
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 Y- O% f$ P1 q3 w* |
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 O' _* K( \* m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 B/ W0 J: [: O5 ?leg down over 2009.1 u' N% r3 }: U3 @# N" {+ _
* k- z' d, R5 ^4 G! Y* |4 g+ G[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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