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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.: h7 ]9 k) G: P

$ H1 s5 b! T0 j" \8 vTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. * m) g2 M3 [/ L  W

% Z& [6 b" e, v"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ( g" s3 o7 |- J8 g6 L, [
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.1 x2 U& S$ T( A: r% U. q+ \6 D& Z
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.6 |9 P! a3 I' G7 s8 \# O
$ O2 I+ V0 [3 g+ e% [- ?6 C
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 6 U6 p, E5 q# L6 d9 V( [" W
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.& Z2 A9 |" F" Q6 w  l; @+ o
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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& [# b* ]/ H) Q# `0 X6 dTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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( l5 G! p5 Y9 j% c! j[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
* ]. N2 ]. g/ G$ C! P 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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( @2 d. I4 v$ Q3 c7 A" e: m[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 S; c2 r+ m) ]" b# F9 G9 |跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了1 P/ d4 t7 H! @  m
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta/ z; R' Z7 H2 e, z1 O4 u- Q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, x$ A4 P# t: M, q6 N1 C: D; \* cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 ^& N# t% N; m' I8 O" U( hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to5 B! G/ B$ C& m0 Z5 p' Z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ w' b2 N# P$ Q$ L1 S$ u3 X/ s
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 S% D) X$ h6 ^) Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' K! e' T5 X$ K+ s, V9 a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- D. b! \" ?6 w9 R! i4 M2 G
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 W* x7 i: H' Y8 f0 `. j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; u2 C0 ^; D; P% b1 W% ]2 {
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 l7 x# z& c* b0 y  v, a
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ o" ]- u4 G1 o8 Lprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) X  d4 ?" D/ Q  l
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ z2 Y+ M) l! w+ l  {6 H2 X, T4 a
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. o" M6 U* _/ X( u) x
30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ M1 ^) j6 e9 _4 y2 \( |2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., n& Q2 }! l0 m7 E1 H
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ U) M+ h( I+ S. z" F8 z! Q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%8 R2 t7 }( W# u% O1 i4 _
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 B: `! {" t& e. G$ \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" ^" p7 V: b) Nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- B+ y6 R7 Q2 m6 `; ~9 d: {. l
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- F5 z% _; }+ ^7 R$ V
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' O9 C! _9 W! a8 wclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- A, C% d" A& \' j7 Aexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. D6 N% i! Y( x9 R. Z/ d* [% ?1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a; a& ^; y8 y5 [) I1 h2 G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; {5 p  B: d8 r' l0 ^' j
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, u; R" G% Q) g. j5 f; H# `
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& M0 ^% _% W# I7 N% _" Runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ e. T9 x+ b7 {, |4 R! y+ t
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest  f* W3 T4 _1 t  C. X  O
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) J/ \5 x  n, t6 E4 I& [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
( O) X8 I* M4 o- {: r7 x" ]0 omajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 \$ ^0 a) H# p# }- a) Iof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 v$ v5 G0 X2 n5 \+ W. zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ U5 u  W' J4 G- J! ZThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 i+ {/ B* a9 I. @+ U  ^! @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* @8 g& t- v. x4 @( t
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% |8 A; O" Q. n( @  I4 ]
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% F; g; `% j  @2 R! V9 t
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& f5 ~# ~: L! e5 \6 z: V
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. ^, O, d' n0 l: Y; x8 C' lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& g. R) f" z5 Z) L# aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 z" r+ i, h) S5 w, t  M+ Y1 j+ C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ e9 G9 ?7 ^$ V' U$ bresale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 S, B/ _2 G4 w. mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove$ L/ @6 O5 C2 T; i0 E
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' G  p" ~! s( _4 ?4 Q
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 b  W9 _, m  E1 `  j' W1 W; B
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 n+ [" b  P* ~9 q) D
leg down over 2009.
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9 u' F  O! O, }. O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ R( z" _7 e/ o9 ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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, B& k# D5 n2 e% a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. q5 ?, E" w5 q: ?翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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% g; b, V2 z5 K. E- {- dhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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, k* T7 x4 B7 _( i* e$ }+ B[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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