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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.! s* `" z, u5 X1 l1 o9 J1 h' R
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. & D5 V0 ~$ S5 P* X6 Z
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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5 [3 e( N1 j2 {; R2 m6 j1 v"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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- o( a5 _$ g7 g3 N% w7 k5 m! \! fNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.3 G: _9 h/ W7 b" H0 D

8 g: i6 P% N8 n- l0 M2 H" ^, w& fTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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1 a' `+ Q8 A3 g$ X+ J+ i9 rMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. / i) V' D) E; Q; |6 N; b

" t" `) o1 u9 k7 f8 W1 phttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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) P7 Z0 M2 E; mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,8 O4 H# M: `# n4 ]! N  s" P

+ f/ C9 [: l. g" j! p; M, }[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。# v" F/ U/ P* d' d# N/ M  e0 X
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。9 u( O3 u- W5 g9 Q
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# j6 `1 R6 A6 b) K跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了, [5 m/ h* f) W8 M. K7 g9 O4 ]* `
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta1 t3 F. `: j! j1 K4 w
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- [4 V8 w- }8 t2 j) t6 N
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) Y9 _: w2 w; @1 g0 Q" dare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 x# C9 b: z) [/ S0 T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: X5 T$ ]! _/ b* M$ G9 W; ^7 w
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* `9 F# C6 w. `, ~from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 D  A+ u% I+ Z+ |& [" A& Ithe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 K8 s3 O( R# a2 l8 k
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 P8 g% S0 n/ @. h* M4 lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! R6 N5 g) x8 L- g% bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; R  n8 Z; W' v/ Z5 t! y) ?to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" l( C  \$ V/ v
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 ?  J% G) E3 F  P, i6 b1 c1 Z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
9 b1 _$ p) K. a3 s) d  t$ phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" f: I- W" b/ P! b- q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: T( ?5 O( m6 |: `- E/ Q9 ]& n2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# Z9 x! Q6 h! q7 C" C
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" K0 ^. }, h$ P9 l4 g* i
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
- r8 y5 S5 ~6 n9 cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
  s  ~$ `( ^  N/ s% L' Khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new% r4 t1 w  a' x- N. f0 r, K
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 S* J) I3 h2 x* s4 h- x* \
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 d0 n) z4 A: X" ?# ^0 {& \1 H" ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" E% m& S! E# r2 q# pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
* R% I  |+ n7 C1 L% Y+ e& Z# a9 Pexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! y2 n2 v2 |; D) K2 R1 m1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 i* r3 D' z) hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 D4 `6 O! _( d6 O
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in  ^* ?- \4 y/ M, i" Y  C, a
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* e9 A. H: S6 E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& R% j  ~6 u) ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- ]0 E8 V) P* Rrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the/ Y) b2 u* K+ o) m+ N2 f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- ^0 d# y2 Y8 ~5 g2 v7 O
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
3 y) z5 U0 K! N7 h& a! Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled( }- S. k; \0 V8 n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
. p  C6 v  k+ C+ u" k1 J( S( aThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; b& O2 N# B3 d4 s$ vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 ^1 ^# f# G1 vAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan  ?: I9 g! b% u0 i
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ @/ y- l& J# ]" K/ S  k: G9 {7 [& d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& ^: K2 E- B7 N9 P) l2 Pprices substantially eroded affordability and, even# p. A$ y  a+ c) E
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 W) P$ a1 U, e) u+ y6 [. u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. Q1 M1 r% t5 A4 o4 |, P& O
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average0 J" @8 x: N+ @* L: c' b. F% k9 `
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, |# Y" C7 o, W
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. }' T: Y. y/ mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 y0 Q- c5 c5 Q/ w9 x: n$ L, X# k1 v5 R, ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 d/ _9 f9 q) H+ r; cAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 ^8 P. Q7 Q9 z" e
leg down over 2009.6 s; P3 V* K: ^, j. f- e
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% V8 @9 v6 ~( i$ ?* h, ]! j) X. LAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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7 K- R1 h( k2 E! `0 R# @6 |# L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
8 {0 T; k  z. A. G+ N翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子9 Z! x6 A; q% J
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments9 M* Z+ o+ O7 }; J) ~  c

( h1 k# f, C3 v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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