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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
* M' _' T; B: J& g- SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# ]/ h+ Q- r' f5 g7 T; S9 J5 p7 |boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 w/ K- G$ U3 R6 N7 u7 R0 Z0 E
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to4 _# z* D# o8 t, M! O" O' Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ n" \( q2 ]" p K0 lformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( _, F1 c% E& b* [6 bfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
' Z1 M; A* A; g$ O* Cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 I' s! o8 Z7 H' I) i$ U3 {may even cease completely during 2009. The previous* s( ?" D* I; `$ y! I2 Q
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed7 Y3 ]1 b! m2 _+ C/ Q6 e* @
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: T; @2 y1 V" x; x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' O2 A" X' G* t0 M; p/ n0 g
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 c) d1 F" K$ ], eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,3 D# _4 f6 l$ q" r2 C8 o. P
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 s' q& D/ N4 u+ E! P) h9 t K
30,000 new households will form in the province during
) ^: @) l0 P% r8 i5 _" y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 I6 `4 `$ w8 PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ U1 P% E# o rhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# H* @: n) r" \during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 i1 f% T# M8 e1 \+ Y6 P5 ~has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" |- G8 u0 L$ y; a: shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 [! ?4 |9 B/ h) m1 `1 @3 q
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 [6 a/ g9 ?0 R" ~; Osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories5 ]9 H1 O. n! _5 t) Y' D7 K q, {9 {
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* E1 v- d$ ]. g9 w3 i9 J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 Z5 K; a3 @7 C+ D6 X% H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" a2 I& `2 u* [: h8 `: `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! e$ V! ]/ Z" P: G5 h% w- K. @# I2 ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ @! w9 b9 ~* x* F D1 k4 y
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 Z( F) x; v3 ?/ wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ E' g- V. s' h! Nunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 w# j8 h' [3 p: _! C, U% s5 ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 ~9 w7 E" ~4 q$ _2 Jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 p; r( v7 M4 ?# I, H9 o) ]1 M
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories W! ?. p/ ^3 t `# [3 g+ c
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' j8 D* \) [/ W g% X
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# ]2 k! H6 D! ]2 ^ h7 Y( d
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
' U5 P `$ N5 ]boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 u8 n: \$ h! Y! _
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 b& n& F& Z+ Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ A2 M& @2 N) Wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale" w: R' \1 [/ M1 R) i- i" |
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 n4 }7 ]; e5 {' T) y: j! Mthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
b$ s1 m* Y$ F# N% k* Con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
: Z# n" X" G$ E/ ^1 s' hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average5 a. Q9 a: p# o7 g' I1 C. l
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 Y: ^6 S4 h$ M4 ?1 Qexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, ?8 F" a( Y: p7 ]4 [homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: T; H; _* A) w& w3 F6 J
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( H* l6 L! v+ _+ K* ]4 z8 A6 t* S
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ p" x% {) ?' s9 M b: d
leg down over 2009.
, `0 A5 A9 K ?- Q% i, Q( t$ f9 r( I3 K% L
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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