 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
( E2 \$ d, v# \0 BWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: d5 ]6 c% b8 uboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 k) J$ A9 c" N' a1 ?0 Qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
- w' E( X6 a! |2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, F7 j- H7 S' e4 V
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 n/ U% G; |: U3 B" h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,0 G" M) A, [4 X( W& P" z8 C) V0 M9 p) H
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" |2 p/ Y, l3 V5 e: o8 O
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' V3 c; g1 ~. V) D$ Z, n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( Q) \" `4 n3 f; l3 a5 K
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# M, \! H) l- n/ Q# Oto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% K' m9 \! U3 j. M) K, p" Wprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this0 h+ S, j& W# M( K" m! p( @& k V
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
V( [, b! D, z1 I4 Y& _9 T9 u& ?9 {homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
0 W" m. j& Q! m( r! L# j1 ^4 ]30,000 new households will form in the province during0 [5 q3 y0 x9 F# P' X, d
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 @: R! Z% J. O5 E
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' v1 I- w+ S8 d* s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 [6 Y' d; J% l8 X: L" j, Y# V6 Q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta c% y1 p) G R$ X& M
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
. C. W9 o+ q4 n0 [5 B! Zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals0 D2 A8 |3 _- ^( y9 X
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 M! B( s/ t2 T, ?
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! ?0 M, R2 }9 w* Q9 t5 k- L6 Y3 ~
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 t- n+ _ k/ T9 Qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! u7 b$ n9 g7 ~: x- x+ @1 x% c z8 X1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" ?; N* J$ g2 r# Msales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 t5 ^3 }4 v2 N G" A" }) y) n
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 u9 e# l0 H, W: L7 Z/ Q. Itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 k3 r. c+ _; j& S1 a! R
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747: v8 M: y- ^ y
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ _; V. l' Y. r: B' y% t1 n6 srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 O2 `% ^: s0 {/ k' D& d3 @resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 p4 N. v0 ^! H; E$ f. G
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 {: w$ y5 t. s& n& q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled; i& g6 \" \& ]6 \3 u% P
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& ^1 r6 n% V5 z( Z! H8 I$ {The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s! a+ x3 F! ^1 v! S7 `# B$ z' R
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 l; z8 J# q2 c. M h7 iAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
. j1 ^, I: {* y: h1 d Zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' G$ D- s! P* U S/ n$ i
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# Q2 G1 G* n# B' y+ @2 gprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( k I* l7 x6 i8 v7 d5 y
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! Z% q( w9 g# w' s; _6 yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 ?# |1 A) E" i4 a+ Y9 c
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
" a, X0 D( ?) Lresale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 F0 y. ?) `+ c* W( rexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: i* `; u# {0 R) o% g5 m/ h$ ohomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
8 k) C& a$ h# \7 ndeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' H/ Z+ d G8 v3 m* a! D8 n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, R; d# W* ~6 ~
leg down over 2009.
0 J1 |9 L4 c, \8 H- ~ B- ~# e3 l8 ?; T: [( [9 w1 Q; S
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|