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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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& d  R& N" f! A: C2 `TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
0 \% y) ~* ?2 q2 w( O* U% g7 q$ {6 w6 [; `! `0 G( }( }7 R) z
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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+ O, t& M* D( B2 Z"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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/ w9 y7 i) k7 A1 D4 aTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ j8 f) |, U; ]0 G+ [. n; q1 ?

: v# C) Z/ U% M% o, b: Y"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. * t' e$ E( j9 e6 @0 W5 P
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ P" a) f* Q$ {& T0 G$ l* a# Z8 U

; J) r6 A$ b8 |9 c  j+ ?http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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3 q( @  z: ?$ X  s[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。/ Y4 Z6 x3 L& i
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. P4 l  L1 u5 t
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
2 D7 W3 g/ Q4 M: Y6 B( J3 W跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
0 g* _3 X7 _# K4 p+ w) U嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta' f# ~) ]4 J  {' v1 Z: p0 Y
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. k3 R- i  s: P( Q9 e* O6 d* Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 `+ i" |2 T% E! T& u. Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ S' l# b/ u+ o* A2 g8 k0 ?
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 X7 c  q4 y* X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided# {0 _3 N) c  b! s/ E* }& f
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ d! \& o1 l+ a' q8 Q/ e& Z5 {the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* w- u9 Q6 V  [+ v6 z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 e4 t! @. k4 zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
  w" x, W! _- f+ W4 Y( pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% M" \. b( q0 H- Uto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year9 l9 R  A" v( A5 H0 }. u, ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  t! z0 D- `2 I% N
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! m9 U" |$ \) V! B8 G, Ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 w5 q5 a8 ^! r9 V$ ?
30,000 new households will form in the province during! u; V. T% u( R
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 Y7 u" p3 S: ~# j. f* M* HEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 O# t+ ?; S6 D3 y+ g& ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
& y# N) s; x" |( y' t4 ~during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 W0 o6 q8 o+ l! u" @! ]has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
7 u7 F" K& N" Q4 Y  W: }, Bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ q% \& x$ o: [0 g# |9 ^! bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging! I4 T, Q$ Z! Q" l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" q/ i- A6 E& V7 V, ^" \clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' d" N6 S* z" i. k
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# W! b! |9 u3 p" k- Q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ u7 ^: K. g1 |3 P3 [. e8 H1 b& zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 r/ C+ p! ?( L5 u" ~& y+ Gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) K3 r+ I, }; d3 n0 B  o9 L. ?
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 l5 \( l9 C4 N1 W: E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! m- _5 a( x; f1 K$ o! h
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
4 Z* |) N* f% P" Y7 _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) R9 ]8 S+ M7 @9 A! Zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; p7 T$ _4 w2 s. C. a7 amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 e! E! h0 \. X3 k5 V  o, _  N0 ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% ?* z; d  k) zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 u; J0 a6 o* C& n* H  IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s* b; {5 c) q/ O0 _3 X; g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 W) ]; A" ^. @. a6 ?8 F- Z: eAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; m. z2 t6 i0 dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# G# ]8 a3 H  @
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# r+ R; b* `! {# x% H! O8 s/ kprices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 @6 \- J0 u+ |8 _9 g
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners  K  i/ a0 S( _3 G0 V; J( z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 a; ]$ r# j9 o, z  Q+ |& E
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- d$ C* k" P, Y& Z: R2 E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices- w( L' m: W2 {  {. z: u3 V
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 N- D+ k4 W" X1 N6 H3 Rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
$ @: Y3 i! t1 `* w8 y4 adeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) o1 Y: F. O' \6 l1 f7 IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. f* |! I# G/ j* g8 L
leg down over 2009.7 V$ t, o! i# S1 @1 @9 L3 h; E! t

1 V" Q/ L# K- ]9 g6 b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," L5 P/ R! Z0 y  S) T1 Z% K* {
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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& l2 j' m$ H! q% o. p) H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
# A: @2 e3 t" @3 t; {( A) z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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: j( M/ P; W! E9 B[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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