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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta. v: h$ ?: G" Y8 \" Y* k3 N- ?
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% K' N+ M5 Q, x3 W8 x: L Dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# r* `1 K+ [/ {" `% x# @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 g6 n3 C S9 V7 Z0 O% c- n2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. H3 j o! N9 {" _9 d
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ q6 ^* T" Q) ?) B4 Hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 l1 B* i: u8 a5 Q8 M1 `7 othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: V2 }* i0 [) y' D9 q4 }/ @) S: ]" d
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous5 D- A, J4 ? f$ v
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" a3 {6 \8 U* Q$ J$ Q1 j, ~* A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ a# a4 [9 T2 E4 I% l2 f
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 T8 L, F* M. R% Z9 _3 e0 Y9 \
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this# M( Z6 g r- v! z3 T/ O! f6 S9 x
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 D- j5 `/ e, D
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around x% Y% @/ |4 J8 X. f% }
30,000 new households will form in the province during2 g5 b8 w7 C$ k3 p6 s0 N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 n2 Y9 H" r y# i2 F8 V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
" B) j* ?/ I, m' g/ X" ]homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%; ~) y. L9 E! L( d+ q0 d( n7 M
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# N1 l5 \8 m( o6 U) W2 r% t
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 i* j4 g0 ?2 @+ V
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: q7 u. R. k4 V, g) H
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging2 q& q1 ?: E: N. d6 Z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories G+ i! O4 A( p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: G2 O/ ?4 g* n( J
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% n) p) q s) {9 @6 z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% O' e5 }3 s" ^! Q+ H" |+ }$ `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 b+ H$ X+ S' ~) c
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
a- @+ _+ \4 |, ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) o0 t9 v! L1 P) b+ Z Q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747/ ]4 m4 x) t' H. }( L: W# ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! }' R* b8 V2 irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; c; o2 R4 ~1 P) W, r! wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ j3 s' V& {/ c7 lmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 {! K; ]( ^ S7 O: U8 b! [of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- S, Y8 t- b) E9 z3 f- O
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
8 H8 a M5 F3 |7 A1 m7 JThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; X& G) F! M) \; A7 n. j
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* i' \& L7 q- z; [ e! O9 T
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- q- T7 U; c: shousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 `% t% U/ ]. b/ \ Grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 w- x* z. e Q* ^1 _1 u
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' k4 x A) K3 j5 S/ }/ P- K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; G8 L5 G: m4 A; a# [
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.5 t/ D1 I8 Y6 w% ^" X& [+ | X, e' Y
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) Z" h; I) N/ ^2 c6 L- n9 s
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
/ y0 m* Y+ Q- J6 ~' Kexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove j% u! {0 ^6 f; A) A- G
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& z* @& |* b6 F* b) b, L$ F, Fdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,; | s8 O. \$ c3 b. k& A
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- p' w2 x( P8 z
leg down over 2009.
' n+ Q/ W0 K' ~8 {3 y/ p- S. c- b S8 x/ G& \% O
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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