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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta8 P4 x$ o* ~3 O* u
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) n3 O4 Y) q7 x/ \9 C
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton2 G* F$ K- `/ D9 i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 ~& O9 x% }, {. y5 j0 j" F; C8 F) |2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 Q1 ^9 Q9 m2 b( nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 L9 C. E8 Z6 J, sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! B5 x9 U+ f* p+ N7 ~the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" o8 Q/ r$ t S% x, I
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: f5 R5 Y$ k* d9 h) s& D. y' b( @pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
. i, c, s1 O6 H$ `& W" ?" Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined) r' E/ @& X6 ]2 [
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 W0 n, I+ ]0 e1 a5 n' u
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
5 [# J; c; @- Vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ r5 ?" k+ T5 E" F5 J& h) O
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 ^6 C9 ]; S2 [
30,000 new households will form in the province during, ]8 j+ |" ^0 R
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& k, D/ h2 R& f, Z3 ^. E- ZEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 Z) g- k) ?/ U& R) S7 o( s D% X. O! R
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& q4 j1 ]/ V, j( L* \' I6 @
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- f& S0 w& T' V# O5 D( G$ `
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 b7 I9 {' o1 w) F) u- e1 Nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
) Y* p5 g( @! g8 b: Rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. f- I$ e, D: @* Y! f2 \( |. i
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, P$ W. _$ ^9 a2 @3 }+ _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 H9 |$ d# a' Y' ]1 i2 Lexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 ~7 P; N3 Y4 F7 L: s/ d- p. {- Z1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
1 O/ X( F4 N( u# O8 k" O0 ?sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive- Z# W0 c6 H' c9 G; f; ^
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 J6 C, T; g- A
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 u; h/ X# t9 v7 n
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
) r: B" {) i9 x O6 f$ M$ ~& u7 xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 B$ @6 N, F/ O7 ^5 }: M) m7 k7 ~
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 m: b3 |$ d( z( \# z( gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" e1 g8 \4 L6 M1 e
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& J* c& Q$ ]8 E: `) ~
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 A6 Q6 P. w7 d8 U2 J$ [ Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 z) v" o7 V# `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( S6 Q. Q* [7 b) G( |2 k% ?
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." a+ ^- E3 I# d8 D6 H# g9 t7 f: ]' y
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan% o& P9 m8 @, M+ a) w7 G1 ?' n
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. p' t# z2 a( D3 Z, V! g6 ?relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale: R) N- v( ~ Y k
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 b) }# c- e) J. x. m3 T& l0 x% B8 vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 z1 [ I- E' ~0 ~' W9 eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
r1 @1 `+ e6 I6 V2 f8 P* E# \The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. X* y/ Y C% n6 e8 O( f" wresale price in February is evidence that past prices
# f F6 I9 m+ c) Xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- r3 ~8 o; T9 S; G" ~homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 [) t' d# {: e) S9 udeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 ~1 g0 r( J% B9 D
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 u0 D2 b% a8 Q0 tleg down over 2009.; ^5 T( U) R1 }0 V5 s
, J. g# z2 J2 m; R# `+ u) Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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