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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.4 G' [, G; j  C+ |3 p, {

* b, ~- F9 W/ {# mTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. . F- S' C! O! `* V1 x9 l, w& F) n
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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7 |* X6 G, q6 g' Y0 s1 G  T% u"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ( Q$ b, U2 t2 m9 ^' h

% F: S6 s. F/ e! [. _4 }Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller./ d* z7 s/ [4 l
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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+ l& @3 V; |& I) \6 @8 uhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

5 T' |3 v9 ^  D4 f* W/ e$ W6 i! z: M2 o6 [+ G8 m
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. c0 C9 x/ V3 |2 E
1 k* Q- Y, `8 C. X& q
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% S/ x0 [! a0 K( m/ \- n3 a  B 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。5 W& [1 E3 D, v! t, U
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 , T* R2 F0 e: J; K4 ?
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
) w  X# a7 n- W嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( q' q/ b, [% f9 N- J
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 a) e* {* `: dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' z# i& c' G/ a; {9 f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
9 ~  b5 E0 O% D0 T# ~# |) O# C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! v! r4 V* N5 U8 |6 u, x$ fformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, u1 s+ f. y, [  {* i0 G3 a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ X6 F" X- ^. u" W/ i2 Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& K# b( T5 z6 }; g
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, c& ]! G  }" ypace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 U# z6 v. h* c$ _# t
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
0 Q  h# j9 {" B7 N2 W2 eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! g0 N! J( i  f7 _4 N$ Y+ W7 dprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. `  y+ K: u/ r. K$ ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 S8 E4 Y# K/ Xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around5 C! O0 e. v& H7 S% o9 v" b$ f* k
30,000 new households will form in the province during" v' Q* G; Z/ H
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: m, k# j/ n' f5 d" H% D
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ n: i( p1 l, F3 ?3 N0 r: o  D5 Lhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ P6 i6 P: C  ]" x; v% ~5 q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 b# N! `2 w2 C
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new6 ~+ i  |' f4 q9 u5 y
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ k$ e9 S) p( xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) p/ ?) L: ?+ D0 R4 d+ Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ p* Y, f( z6 ^4 l; e7 Tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 Q% A9 V  p0 ~: Q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 J/ j  I* t  z( `; p! f9 K( g1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ Q4 N3 A. i# o: s/ K( j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive# F% J8 r: Q+ N! R# ^: b3 G- i
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! Q; R! @  y" A- @9 @; O8 Gtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
4 y* }  y) _5 r. t1 eunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. M# T7 ~( @- y- U$ h& x
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest/ H1 _8 N7 \" J# z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 J9 ~) P3 Z/ \. ^3 ]1 I. R: L" uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
, p% J; @5 _* G' ~# Umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ n( X; h& G( E! i; qof new singles, and, with demand having cooled: \9 p0 c. h+ T3 t( ^0 S2 b. }0 a/ m
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" C7 h' c1 G/ u; |3 B1 n! zThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ V8 l- ^! O5 n, X$ S" `: Uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' G: A/ l+ J( I  V& \* x2 z. PAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
  [6 F$ S4 C( `6 ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. d9 |. ]6 A; @* X
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale, k) B& J: d6 V2 Z" Z7 S. Y3 X/ }. Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 D/ O3 j& H+ I  v+ }1 g0 |. Y) W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners- h. |( N' c( v' a
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
" `  N7 g& H* ~. g9 YThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. `/ K1 N5 x- Z% r& `8 D5 t
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 d: P0 P( x; f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, G" x) c8 Q7 n' t! Z# w0 X) Thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: Y8 C% J2 n3 Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ Z+ [, V. S4 }2 {1 q6 AAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%+ Q. U4 U9 B' u& ^* e9 E' Z, F- a& M
leg down over 2009.9 R2 O3 R' p3 O

: X9 t- n8 q$ W& B0 `. g9 y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( W  ^* ]) y+ f. W7 c/ G7 P
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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" O: J& v% a$ F( I+ q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" t& |* W0 C; Y6 f翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 v0 n' ^3 j2 k! W# t3 k, d8 [4 t# G
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: Y. [& p# X- R8 a
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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