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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
- I2 j) C) G4 F0 r W' cWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 h: @& d6 x! v7 z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 b# X( E0 o x0 G' Y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% |5 N. ^8 r) s2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: z1 c& {, k r {, b* Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
3 X* V$ J" R% z+ }; U5 `7 F+ zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& v7 [. P4 P( f* L; L. g# E Z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and- F" `5 q8 z( g8 p$ R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ c: W& `9 f) I/ {) w5 l6 X7 hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' s( |8 X S+ D- G \% j$ w4 kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 R: n/ @, W# e, k" D: d8 c7 Z
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! M( Q: r5 V( Mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 e( h& I8 U6 N+ O/ p' F: \) }8 Y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- j. j3 ?$ c; R9 Z8 ^ O) Mhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around/ x* Z2 j- r/ p* N
30,000 new households will form in the province during
) C: E! e4 j7 t+ D* V/ y T2 H2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 U, J: o8 q6 ]3 u O; ?0 M ^
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% y7 G- k3 Z/ _ y) ^- mhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
7 ~' J5 t% e1 O& P1 ? qduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% c4 A- [ }! _* qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new* Y: N7 {' ?! p* K f2 i( ^
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
& x d: v( k/ ?- U8 X6 Q- U6 p9 bduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 h2 Z& [* R. m
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* l ]( i: Z. g0 R$ i5 tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( _7 ]3 ^ T6 @ D( ]excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& n- |. f3 ?: }/ h7 H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& J/ q7 _# _9 N: y; V$ s4 |
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( U- P8 g7 A+ ^7 r( V2 u) Xbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in {; I. W% D: _# h; B3 b
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 }' x5 B5 g( E1 M" r5 Z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
1 M, K! z! ^% |# P+ f% ~6 ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ R( o0 V% Z5 n& t5 T& Xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* C8 y2 U$ ~1 `. m+ t9 uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! `' v8 @/ [; }! T5 Y. H3 ?
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 w `/ d2 S( p% f' `' I1 s
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: M, |- X( @. ~7 U* d$ J
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 R, b% @0 l: ^; G" S3 DThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s0 f( R9 M3 G F
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' c Q$ j4 [. k: R
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan) _" E. U3 t# D+ V0 e: ?
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced U* b4 F1 d- Z3 }2 S1 [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 Q# ^# }( R$ P0 ]8 Mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* q# i% j+ `9 V; t( [ J' Hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* y. @" \& H/ ~" don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* V. ~: w; \# P3 T
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 n" {& B( n9 z. \. N
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 y9 e6 ]) U( B* r Pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 v: }+ Q6 u/ {
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 V+ u* {) F3 m3 X+ E( c
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,) x7 Y. K! b# q9 e! E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%% r3 @/ ^% t& l3 X4 _% m$ g
leg down over 2009.+ T- f" N( P2 D& H1 u
4 c( ~' ^4 M8 ] H/ A! p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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