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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ _) g% h/ B2 E* b1 WWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, q# G. E8 I/ j# V% |boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ _: I1 B/ h( care cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 J" [( f* E7 R$ |) Q# k
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 X- w! e) l* D2 F4 e$ |formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
9 y6 G& @& @9 {8 v lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ C' ]0 c# E$ o% t* }the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and D: K5 F% x, K2 R m5 ^
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous" ]0 Y& e5 W5 x2 @/ k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
z2 K) ?8 n' o9 g( o5 f7 sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 n: S( t4 s3 j/ C) ]: g
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
* x, B5 U2 _2 H- c6 F$ Gprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( u! t$ g4 U/ qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
, S8 U1 y3 g! V& Ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
2 Q9 ^( h+ z0 Y" Z$ @30,000 new households will form in the province during9 U. ?1 m' ]4 [& Z+ f' G
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& w5 P/ I7 X7 m. [0 r+ U/ M1 M
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ l$ k9 o. x- z4 e* c( V
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 {( }7 {) w. J4 H# ^9 sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ k2 m7 k1 z t$ O: Q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' ~" v# K3 E4 ]( L- t; \households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 P2 U, H" t a0 i# r! o+ x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# a" A+ U9 M i' f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 D+ R) @5 F9 x6 U9 d% Y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is7 b& ?# T: ], K9 [! ~- ^7 v# \) |6 t' _
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of, l% ]5 @8 o. y+ z" I6 |$ @: t0 }
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. I3 @- j+ i7 P1 u d+ m, e+ a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 _' a+ T5 D2 o+ u) h4 c5 B6 y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 {( q/ [3 S! ^( X& w) Y) Q# ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 }- E' V# A4 N. u8 m: V. I5 Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747' o' |% M5 v. M& X( j
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! H. f4 ~7 E9 d f% brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 ?1 x+ o5 q* s; s
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: \" e0 z2 w: X7 ?5 C* _( }major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) M& {. H4 K, w. I( R; P3 D6 M+ r
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 ?" s' [3 p" L+ {- S6 @+ }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 ^+ O2 _3 z6 w! a9 ?1 pThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, Y- {* i: [6 jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. |: T- @, v# S. b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& f1 g- }9 {5 S; k' |; G3 lhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 u Q: ?9 M) {3 @* s9 @2 ^relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 u6 d0 B9 t5 F8 @: d0 p+ I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 ^" A0 k/ o, Q! ^- g6 pthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
$ F' v# N; v6 e4 @! E* j, von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! Z. k" k* y+ v, o i# XThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 w, a, E9 K# N- f
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
; e! x6 n( n8 I: k) f& d- @. ~exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 q& B; j% e4 P7 e9 v* nhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# J v! O6 G; d' j% r7 E3 z/ Y; l
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 M4 p( a5 Z. T, A
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 |- g1 h/ _6 s# uleg down over 2009.$ k3 y5 r6 J% U& u
. Q5 O" w* o8 B( r! C
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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