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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. * a7 B+ R4 E$ P, t4 ~& W$ Y) a" k
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# U' X* V( Q/ ^- W9 D# [
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.' D2 x" R( p& @0 v; U7 |
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ( k% R& l0 R2 V

7 K! t* B: q0 e+ b9 J9 C: NTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 2 Q4 E, [. d6 C

1 b* i$ X9 Q9 D( Y" Z7 R# m1 v$ X2 C8 _http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% |* p& X5 ^# _
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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& O( i6 r" |# l/ c" I[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
# M) {( G* U% ?( @/ g跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了; g; y% f& d' f" c+ |) {! |4 R
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) e# S* \: W/ b6 B# hWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its8 v9 q9 N" _2 ]* h& ]+ X$ e
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 j3 n0 v9 `. D! s7 O: o
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( I7 d" I! l0 V% R& m9 T7 u5 g3 N: }
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# X* _5 G& n7 t: J! j2 vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* K3 ~- D1 l! n) P: }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 [; Y- b) Q8 A" A, y8 D" Q5 }1 p
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 t9 ~: F" m8 p1 u4 }8 u0 Nmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous8 p" u7 O9 J0 r1 G
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 {0 J) d0 E6 o+ ^
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined) g4 `& C6 [" w7 ^0 r& e1 z$ B+ Z" Q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year4 E4 M" s$ R3 j/ t1 e& M$ P8 n
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this  u, j, a) a3 H9 p! ^1 _% S' [
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ E5 U; d) `+ Y* h  E5 v  M7 ?homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, i  B2 L: _7 J
30,000 new households will form in the province during' \/ u, a9 t3 q0 g# S! v2 j* g9 c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. j$ D; o' M- ]* N- B% z6 K+ w1 m
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 X8 \* O8 e5 {% khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%0 ]# e9 l# p4 z/ `
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 V( c% j, f' L0 b7 x9 B2 hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' o8 C) ^2 g, b, J6 f8 d- ~9 e
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* w2 c9 A0 f" X' s
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- Z3 S# u; e. O: L: |
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  ?/ b3 r& n% |; f5 A$ a, v; Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% y% ?4 h, T. U8 w" g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of. G: ?, T! y2 T
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ f$ u( Y7 z( b$ A5 y' L& isales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- x2 h6 ^* o. M# {buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ M$ D$ r8 s5 Y# h4 o) ^
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ M9 i; R$ u# t0 \( o' ^; Q# runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
, w( k4 J8 q# W8 w$ }unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) s* I9 k' H4 Y9 f. u' ?2 U/ y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 _2 X- }5 G; x8 U- @2 E% C0 z
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 `5 V1 K9 ?4 t# [5 u
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 k; A& _+ U1 P+ M. r$ e# y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled: J# w& a2 W( I/ Y% e( B
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- U: Z" U, I0 i( k* u& c/ x. Q
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 C  D- n2 {1 q" |
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! [$ P/ h% \# z! n6 s
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; K# s4 K. |# u- q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced4 a$ T: m" z' r3 ^* E! o
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 r6 n/ A) k- O6 a% I$ w
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 T: i+ M3 f* d  B
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& K$ C: ~& Q6 f% N
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# G# R+ T9 j  V- m1 I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 X# q4 ~% h9 O+ d" T) r
resale price in February is evidence that past prices, C, D) e1 D: k9 \5 F5 T# V* f4 k
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: s9 w( [' \+ A2 ]homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* R- ?. u- C  s) F# x/ ?
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 ~# S# Y- i1 i
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 r* {/ ^3 X; ~
leg down over 2009.
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# p. ~' w9 H' R& u1 b+ z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. ~$ [# h+ h% G/ e4 o- h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. . x# c* |- K+ [% M4 Q& [! u6 W/ s
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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8 f) p' D4 X* L0 U9 }& y4 h0 ]& }http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments7 x9 T. d! _* }; t; J
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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