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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.# `2 T7 w. u7 W; o% J
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. % r; F0 L7 w! W0 j5 C
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 o+ |- X' S; h" W1 k

+ O* g0 I! k3 X1 K! Z" B. SNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.; ?; @0 ~: V! J* Z% U1 U3 w

+ ^! C2 X* X2 @. W$ b) Z4 K"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , p5 K, S, F1 h

" |+ K8 Q- q, B, {' @4 T" V( oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) K, \4 H# T! r  t: o
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % i9 @$ k9 A% k; G% U1 i# r, L
+ M+ |$ Z( f; g8 g  a/ m3 z% D
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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! W( M8 h! u5 p1 }* _[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。: V: a  f; {* x0 Z
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。5 S- b1 F: u7 w- n8 G

& _) o& W2 S4 Z+ M[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
/ d$ u* Y; {! L跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

, m" Y. r: W* b. z很多人都回学校深造去了' Z% w1 q0 v' B8 b# B1 y
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- j0 K0 i" A' [0 GWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- [& ]) f; [- k3 }, s2 z. oboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& _1 p. I) {6 ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" g8 q3 J2 n" L0 N* l  I7 ]4 H2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
' J. j" S" ~) h; Vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* N7 a0 @: |% }: r5 \: efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 ^0 y# i" K& A  G* @" `the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) G3 [6 S" @/ N; S# jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ i: X: `; J' V% Z9 j) y8 Lpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! G) P+ s! ?6 x
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
: R! @! H7 D) T8 K1 t* hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 |. y9 R3 g* t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
  Y; g3 p/ F% a- N) {0 ^% ~year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 @- l/ r% ~" ^7 F- shomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around  D! ^; _/ O: a" H; |( ^8 [; y
30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 ]5 U, r9 n; G& L2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 S, Z3 G3 o" L" n
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" X( d- q/ O: ^; [- k+ u
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, d) j1 F: p+ ^8 f! i; o
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
: g2 v" M7 B% q$ Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 H  m( B* b/ }+ o- g* ~0 G4 i, Lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. \$ p* z, h7 a1 G0 T. U6 M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: ?6 o2 E) @, m) ~: h# `
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 z/ d- K3 O+ p1 B& t. c7 c0 u
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* J+ m# g- \* J- t  O8 q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# r! w" v8 ?: I- _- u; {5 M
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# M7 @4 `( x, o/ i# v. P3 H7 @& vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* t9 A! B; A) }" S& Qbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 e' r! g+ k. ]9 _& j
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: V  o. R2 ~% ^3 Z4 \unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7472 e, l) c+ n. k7 f
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 ^# e8 e3 x. J+ C6 ~  L0 N7 g) ~* c
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, e' x; d7 B8 Q' aresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% z( A1 M7 r4 j, p9 K7 f0 g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 r& \1 |5 Q; X1 mof new singles, and, with demand having cooled. V) w- M3 {) L: l
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ P' w; r- t0 A2 i
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. Y" z- l* }( t6 ~7 F% N; Y! E
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* _% E' C& ]8 H! v. AAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 A# \- W4 o1 q% v; ?housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
- ]1 H' Z. D6 D# J6 S# E  Hrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 l$ }2 A  [; y) e! |: qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 H) r- ^1 Y$ {though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
, u; I* m2 k# gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ [8 r( J# s9 v; Z: q2 A. OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 X0 f0 f+ I. |* t; H* yresale price in February is evidence that past prices
; u# T: s9 {1 D) ]* n# R  K. Lexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" w* P: L1 ]9 i* g% yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’. [. ]: _$ v% U$ [8 p
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* L6 \4 E+ P5 o2 Y' H: j0 kAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 w  e9 E8 F' F% g* O9 i7 p- K! C
leg down over 2009.
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1 Q+ I0 Z; M: T  g- \; j[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; V" L8 F3 I% X9 t2 UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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" G: ~' g& \5 I9 [/ j6 `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 D5 V0 [8 a7 ]6 A! ?. ?翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子& Y6 z$ B3 T5 W3 L) F
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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& ]3 D3 ^/ @$ S[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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