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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta; L. v! b1 C) z! Y7 G. k
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ m0 }9 n3 {1 ~; n6 A! O
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 z3 i! ?+ |0 p; R1 t
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, Y4 A9 l% Z+ r3 Y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household# U% n6 J6 ^* R
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided) @: z6 z1 q; g2 h) Y% e
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, Y. W2 o% b% g$ _' s% n. Y
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* \3 d; M9 W1 y: o/ g) m
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 i, S: G) t! z0 H% u7 Y- T* P3 r4 D( Upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed+ w3 v L& _/ x" j8 s
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% z# F, U5 j8 A3 t6 mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 |& q- P9 n7 l, H9 Kprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 M p0 B: a9 G" P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,7 T8 P- Y9 }3 u) b5 [, ?+ `
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! Q$ @5 p- @- N3 x1 m. g
30,000 new households will form in the province during
% e3 q n4 H8 j8 H; [6 f3 R2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 ~% J; F4 T" J) h- O0 e
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# P7 |6 P9 S! V Y$ J. ^homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# f% N7 z1 P$ a" z5 o5 xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) G! G) S: I4 r7 S
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ M8 n* M% k R& C5 E/ l+ qhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! U: ]2 l5 P, y3 S9 U4 d6 Q% vduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
9 P2 W" f8 H3 f' q' wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 L8 b9 [' |0 w5 K+ w
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& B3 g* u8 j% @. z# k7 e+ K
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ x- n4 w! j8 d5 N8 |
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a& O8 d7 w' J1 _( i3 s: z9 _
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. M5 i' ^: E# m/ c; p7 @buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' D6 Z$ i- K% s8 D( L" p) G! g" p2 q
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 s% m0 I/ F0 x P1 [& g8 yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. l. c" ?9 _8 i& [7 _ ]unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 l7 h% W3 D5 S6 [, B0 k; }+ Orecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 ~' R6 z& |9 P' P3 E: `- R# o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* Q6 m W" f! b: c. F. v& i
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* M; C* N3 \+ O3 D
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled# v* [! q- W0 L2 A
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
E$ v; l* b9 H# F2 Y3 N+ `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 Z t; K: j2 L g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 F2 y/ W% L! [8 `
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
4 N$ K7 E5 g# k7 ihousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* U3 A+ R% Z& f1 ]9 D- B8 C
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 _! b% v: c4 r$ o7 ]
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ q& C' S) h0 i$ P) `6 _- ^though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 ^% c& y0 o: D+ oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." S" D" z N8 J8 N5 M8 g4 b6 h
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
* H$ h6 g4 E! s, y4 Hresale price in February is evidence that past prices
! D1 a. Y& [- p* I+ W Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. U+ D. A3 Y4 y ^6 xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’8 i# r6 {2 x2 t$ P
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: o1 ^* y: ~% o2 z+ B5 h8 p; l3 N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 `1 \% ^, N1 ?& X( e
leg down over 2009.
# j6 ?8 f! |* V c3 |$ o/ W2 a6 |6 C k& N2 H
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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