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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
9 F$ I5 v& r9 @5 S2 F! s/ r9 zWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( U8 z6 z% L- p: L* I( b
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& V9 F* t- Z( J3 `0 H2 o$ U- J" f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 f+ W# U+ p' g' r+ Z4 E2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 R1 V% w0 ^$ ]% E' {8 E
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* M- }) O' Y, C7 W
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,: x' n9 q& h* j$ x: f3 ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 d; a1 i/ N9 ~' {2 B
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous1 d5 e6 I6 E o
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! y' m* S. ~- `9 U
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 I3 U- Y$ Y6 ?3 D0 Bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. ~4 x d; e' i2 A( w/ \
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' t# }8 t! v% G8 Z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# ]# }9 p2 G" j9 h1 H
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" H, ?" s0 g e' ~4 ]( r* M6 r
30,000 new households will form in the province during) S1 m) _) N" F# h5 D8 ?/ D
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., Q$ }6 Q! q/ h
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s, R, w, Q: @" v: F1 Z1 y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 P3 l" Q8 u; K# X! xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# @) F. c! j7 m ?% D8 F+ Y/ N
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 Q5 c" Z; n0 Mhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 c" i% Y* i$ d% c7 _5 S! I) b0 e4 Iduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. k& ~8 a, _* z' c) r4 P3 Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 y3 B5 I# I4 ] {# Jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! ]! } X* r" U& e$ U9 b' L
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 v: t Q1 j( e# w2 d, R1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 H U# b; u0 s5 e6 X. hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 R# A! P- x- q2 G1 N8 \+ N5 q& i
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) _* ]9 Q% u0 J8 ]7 G* V( s' `: C
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* X w) l; t' }) k4 @
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! c+ \9 r1 C H! G. m- V
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 d; t/ U4 h" I
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
/ M9 t! P- G* Sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( f+ s6 F. ]; P, c
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* C! b( S) ~* R5 a% ~" t- G/ q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled% ]/ R \' ]. z/ o' ]+ p2 W
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.4 R6 `1 F' T3 \; @ L7 H
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s& N/ a! t4 y% r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 n* t9 z4 C# h( S( R" \Although income growth was very strong, Albertan, b& N# Z, X" B L: P
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
- _: v# O: P* l+ |/ z. Lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
( y$ g S' t$ M9 e. Fprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* v) f. y2 D, t" |# ^* r5 vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, @) S. E7 V6 K6 ?
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% f3 k3 e" n; K; u
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
! ~$ a2 X3 k* C0 qresale price in February is evidence that past prices
% v# o$ s" ?) [+ Gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* Y: a: H' ~7 q" Q% F) H
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- z5 o' {2 c% [2 H/ f. M2 Q2 |8 ~
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# ^3 ^8 l, h( x* |4 u. y7 n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ |6 {$ d( l5 J
leg down over 2009.
$ H1 n- s. ~" A0 ^6 m: d) o! l/ J. }- F( L
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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