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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
, O1 b2 p- K2 q: @$ m" Y: s2 G4 O' ]Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- [" b( t- ~5 B, d( M
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 s/ R9 }1 S8 [+ z2 {5 ~. y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& K+ {& H* R6 j6 d
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ J, R" u' S) q) x h. Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* L8 f$ `( a& R1 o; Q5 ? ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 n Y8 j* ]+ |; ?1 Cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ V7 ^" ?, [5 J. y$ d; J
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) g1 n$ ]+ G" ^' `/ V$ N8 t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
2 t' [! S7 l6 @6 d/ X5 e$ D2 oprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
Y6 S* e b+ zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 G; M; u. R& U
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this# }! x* v M2 i* R+ m, O
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 V3 J9 q' K t+ X6 U, Z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 @: p, \7 r ^6 Z$ V5 c- r& r" a
30,000 new households will form in the province during
. G& a& D" X8 q, Q/ u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; m" x9 B4 T+ v2 B# IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) h2 w' Q# k% j. R9 z9 n+ bhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 ?; C9 R0 g! k8 D+ b
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 ]" T! [$ m* ]0 Chas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new P: V P. B: k! }6 o
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals% f, L) H7 W0 A9 W: K
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* |# q! k& A. a0 G
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 p) K1 I9 K: ~( L; u% Pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is' f; h! x$ P& [. l/ {* e+ D3 r* Q) x
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* \+ \# p- R' ]% Q
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ i0 ?- [; ^6 W3 t' X! p( ^% N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 E. r3 I4 M C6 C0 H% E! w4 d
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 E* ]3 g+ a2 u: Q3 Q9 |: M
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 A6 ^6 N5 Y4 R% m: v3 i; u. v) t
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" t4 D* w; F& Y% [; _, P. _8 ^
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 j' X) K, K# Q- C/ Q2 x4 ^$ arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 L% S! s8 V% K; }* e; U
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 t0 L. J- p* j2 T3 n6 S
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 M4 Y! I0 L; q* k1 Y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled% L3 a7 l* x5 L' b2 H0 k! f+ q5 [
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( c) M& M; d4 I" YThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 z3 [! l" e! @0 O( Qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 [! ?( ~. P1 o7 C( o1 ~
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 y: a5 R% R3 j' p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 B5 x3 l/ J$ T! Grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 S6 S# K* c$ @2 F) ]5 Zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
G- w# I6 ^% f* P) k: |though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 }7 c1 U, k3 b) r
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, i' v" I# T4 z$ R( y/ gThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 h, C* Q9 z4 uresale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 C; v+ i, @8 jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" r H& Q* d3 O$ J( L2 D+ Mhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; }$ ]2 m9 y7 E) ]: ~
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* y) x! Z+ q6 MAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 O/ N; m/ b4 b, E9 o; p
leg down over 2009.
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% y+ @! s, Y0 D5 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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