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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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: W9 R% X; h+ Z4 M7 d" _4 i# n! ?The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.   ~! G4 q/ O. q0 j- ^$ Y. u1 M  m. ]5 A

9 _/ ?  w% J( p8 q/ e4 V"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 4 M2 W# ]0 R. m# |* n% A3 c
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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% [1 C2 e. b( @" i' ITD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 W7 m0 p; u6 u- M6 a( A3 I% @
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 8 B3 ~4 Z  r' Y; {
7 Y: {2 `# P  E2 z
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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: C5 z# P3 \2 m" ^" STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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- \- Y1 ?: x: D# v3 i% E! a[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
1 [4 R( a0 |. _1 R6 @7 _ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。- Z- i& {! W0 N4 E0 z
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 % U0 H  I" D8 W
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
/ _9 Z2 ]! N* Q( U! L7 ~( u+ \嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ d' I" a8 m3 o' f; v/ Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; ~1 M9 H2 |* S- e0 }boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" k( E& N' G! j5 M. D( I
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to) u6 y' c1 V6 o; z3 w" y/ f
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 d) N& Z  L7 J: aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 c9 h) |3 N' {2 u! G, Tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, ~7 P' l' h1 z2 o
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; @9 k" A- R; Y7 v) R
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous7 K% k% E" f; [; {4 o
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( q  ?0 F! k: p; n  m3 xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# x' c" c9 o9 Z5 o2 S: `to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 M) R% r1 k8 Xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( h3 N# T/ l- ?5 o. ]2 U$ S1 x
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ ~& S4 m# z- {homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
5 E- H2 F" u8 K2 W: ]3 h3 p30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 I, M' ^, P& [2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.) z2 E4 ^- W7 ~6 X) O
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ t6 }, q* F( f! o2 M
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 s9 O+ X2 \- m( ^' u6 j& m2 c1 eduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
- v2 i, A( V* S$ n) k9 thas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new$ l1 e7 }/ v+ @
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, L6 Z. v! \  dduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" W4 Z# X2 o: `# M) J4 ~: O' [; [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 L: G9 r* P8 [7 T8 ~
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 z( z: X3 v# Q5 }
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 _. q  f- m& h2 l! q- {: t2 A* e7 u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ E0 i8 R/ w! O5 A  B1 U, N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; R  {6 W7 m7 d: b% A3 `
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
" f% v7 \! e$ M/ e1 Ntwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in. V( J, J$ t$ \' e- `$ C. E- X
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7470 ]: G. B( P1 ~3 }( e
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- A0 f' ~4 W3 qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, W5 \+ a. M7 T' y" K& K' B$ ^3 i+ o
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 L+ R5 d9 D/ Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 Z! V% o3 j9 A
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. s: a, d- \, f# w3 g( u
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( s" w9 x' c" b1 s' x! M* w, \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 v+ H: u+ V# M. u: c. q! e; U) L
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 l/ ^7 G/ r# o. K( ]
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan+ m7 [2 P7 _1 U1 b) b. {
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 @5 K! `* f3 o: rrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& V, ^5 w- G. X/ \! z& y( W
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even" y0 u1 ~# ?8 x6 e- i
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) L/ d7 Q1 }7 M% I' }on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 f  T/ D, w0 J% `# {, u( o- V' jThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 E: b, {3 ]& \% T: G- ^resale price in February is evidence that past prices' c! I) y5 w% q  f- H0 y8 G3 T6 P6 m
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* P6 M% x! g1 U9 ?& N/ d' v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
0 r4 e* [' }! c& T& X3 B6 _* Cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 w4 p7 S" e$ f7 C0 k( \: z  ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 ^; H8 l8 A! l% p
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,8 W$ E  y" ]6 c5 K( v% Y9 e! L1 G7 D
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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3 O5 N9 J8 j" R, R" {% \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
( F6 C+ o9 _" C$ j% E* Q2 {翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子% h2 Y! B8 d2 h+ D: j$ j

" c( q. |2 M+ f, L: dhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments$ m  _. @, O9 M

& I6 u% j# t( M6 S% g5 Q5 Z6 o8 c* x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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