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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta# I5 x" Q4 W1 O9 c; p% P' U2 O
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ H0 z/ K' `9 X. X2 L6 t- Nboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 [8 g- X! D; u) U8 }9 w7 ~are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
1 E, _2 c5 y, u% N6 t* ^2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( B% s8 O7 a8 {7 c9 r5 t1 S# Vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 f6 {7 r5 }' N; P# afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 c( v0 t. u9 o( nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
. t+ }" r* V! {may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 H6 x# G* T: [% O" e' j. I
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! v8 ~/ D. ~; Z2 gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 ~1 f4 I0 X" J5 Mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 ?7 ], l6 M/ d) k; Sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. [: m' Y. a/ z4 ^* m5 i! b0 hyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 N- y3 {: t, d# B$ \$ Jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 I9 r( p! f9 _! N
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 `5 G! F9 C" {8 r- w2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. ?5 [# N1 H1 U+ n6 x% ^$ Q" v( }# U: SEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
0 z4 T# q5 `8 Z7 N( ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: J* Y4 U5 Q8 `* v
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta1 K+ @$ a- y( u" O$ ?" f8 N( r
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' Q$ |6 y- b# T7 P3 G3 vhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- z7 h% E8 ~' \4 l1 u/ `9 p
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 }% s/ S# B4 {: Hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ j0 u1 t/ P! n$ D
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 x" @' q" k( \5 v+ P {1 H
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( M4 O" C% `6 T) C2 y6 r9 b6 U
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a3 x- f* K/ C5 v
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive$ J9 I Y# x; j% n# \! j
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. }0 C3 [; B8 q, Z, m; ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, k- R- S- q2 T/ Uunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; s: G8 @3 x8 C/ xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) p0 E! v; N3 B6 x
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
( j* |9 k: p' ?/ [" xresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. F, s+ X. }% zmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 m# A1 `7 s) ]
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
4 S! i$ P4 {. R! _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: I, i* Z% j$ R& L9 q+ YThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: u5 E# {1 H0 B) e
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. M m6 w0 b( [: J2 h
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
# Y1 p1 |# M! g }3 D7 h$ F; H. xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 P5 M$ ^+ g9 Z- Z* Lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
- f5 ]/ D9 u. ]6 k4 r- Jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( e3 J' o, V6 T% Z% g6 m6 ?
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ b7 {# w# `/ o" r, }" U3 i" X, w
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! W+ _0 }8 N6 g5 ?. d H6 H3 Q4 W
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 F8 A- s/ N9 I! H: _- Oresale price in February is evidence that past prices) H# ^8 Q* \ f W6 z, j1 ~& w- |
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ N& s/ Z1 a4 t( X
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* j0 b0 m3 ?* x" M+ M( }( ~
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% V* i# |. Q% U, M% ~Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, o( `, N* U( J8 kleg down over 2009.: z# S9 v; a+ v4 t& E
0 ?. ~! ^/ p" b% |6 t2 _1 A$ e[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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