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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
& W% j9 x* c. }Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' Y( R2 v2 p. [4 r; jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. @( Q! M* ~) T7 q! oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to+ [6 C! S& |7 D! C% r9 P
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 T. O- u( r6 O% i' P% Kformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- f: W" {* c+ L% V) Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. U* `- M) K# {* C* h+ t5 P1 w# ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 N& z) e7 }' B7 B! Lmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' ~2 I3 }% g4 s5 a' J: L$ t1 m6 A. v$ o
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& u7 i' |3 \. Sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" ?: |; z' @: p; k
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 J2 ?7 Z- D O6 mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
, E e/ q- f7 U3 j$ B/ Vyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' A1 A/ s, F& A" |* Zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" p' J% [- j0 l0 ]! ?
30,000 new households will form in the province during, N9 V, T8 e' O
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. ~0 E* k9 Y6 {7 K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ e# C; D1 X; ?# \3 O; w/ @6 b0 q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; c+ G- I( ~+ ~# g: _ {8 ?during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& [" W5 F" Z u1 @2 I5 P: B0 Khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; t3 u" [% n5 R3 q$ ~( w, k
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
e% F/ P" I+ A- w& z; A* sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ }8 T+ p1 Z, l! z; r
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 V8 O3 w* q0 j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% z2 L* Y! q- `0 x; I6 n
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! Q9 {* i( j- T: V/ I! V, W5 |1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ Z7 Z u( a. J$ vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive/ o2 M7 E: p4 c8 r4 Q& x
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 t- M6 G l, J
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! ?+ }; l1 j2 K9 runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 n3 y7 U6 h e4 u6 Y$ q) S1 N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest, X! f1 O# B5 ~4 {, G# t
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the2 s0 y$ h5 d, }7 [/ z1 A
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; X* Q5 T2 S/ j+ bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. ?; S4 @/ {. q, a% i+ R# A8 q
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled X; ~. Q' y- `$ U
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, g6 C/ _6 n% @# Z: IThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# t- ?: Y0 f9 I, G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' ]& F2 z" o/ P+ a2 G% ^ S& wAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan2 K n- r* k( d/ \/ U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 P3 s5 X5 o; n1 l/ M0 N( k# w O6 g
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 ?8 m' |$ E v2 ~
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: s( E) K; G; F( @( P2 e `
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 V- w$ o+ |* A6 H f
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, u u, A9 h2 u4 I$ A& _The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 d& G R* g+ K) O* g
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 x' c4 i b' \" a& j: T. S2 oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
; o5 u# x ]0 U* C9 {7 ohomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’" z0 C# H2 Y) |; T/ W8 k9 @
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, \" ?+ @ @- _7 N6 E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, D5 H1 I* O- t& T9 x- }* R1 ~
leg down over 2009.+ |8 b; b) m6 `2 c
) m$ _3 g- q; N$ C+ a' _& Y
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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