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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
- s  h- @- A- `9 v5 f# y1 a, J" B$ m9 y# V3 O/ Z! q- J
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. , M. V- d* O. L, J9 {. g3 Y2 u  U% Q

+ v6 S$ ?% i) c% c& |  YThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 2 |$ p. K8 T6 [0 l* @9 @

! K$ @" l, I% \  t2 P7 i8 I2 V"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
: K* M4 {; V3 K; F; P7 ]5 G, e2 Y6 U7 y9 A. }& x
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.  Y$ P, i- S3 W# D. y, o, S
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 J6 C3 D0 H/ X% m. b8 K
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year." |, \- F  p1 e6 |# e

8 T; g; _  s; m# ?' Q% `Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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; ~; i1 }/ ]( K6 Chttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

5 C" Y+ G( D" t, f- ^( M& [' w7 V0 z9 s' h/ U4 o
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,# ~4 i' Z; e- d; _7 l0 z
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" G" `% ?) [. y3 I6 d; P 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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9 \, x' @+ L7 `  X' U6 j! S$ S% b[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
8 b7 |5 T0 f# b/ w跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ i5 o& {" s  t* D9 g3 s6 s  x9 [很多人都回学校深造去了
% w5 B8 s! Q$ d0 e* `, o% x# }嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
' j* R& Z/ u" X. z- F$ d+ VWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
& ]5 b6 m# t9 f' k. }' _6 Z! Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton4 i. h! s9 f( W
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to: L! X" J4 O7 w. X2 ?9 k9 z/ n
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 v3 Z& ]3 i3 B2 N0 N
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided: N" i% q) `# s/ W$ B
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 _; K4 T/ l+ `# g2 Z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 d- b7 ]: Z2 F. H; A9 w; F9 Q
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( \! V- i5 i) S9 B5 O
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ ]1 f0 r& ?& _0 g2 T( aprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 S5 `/ P$ w- c  Z# r# x, l
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* L# k! D; S3 F/ k; [! q1 ~  o
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
. h/ x) J* U8 x' _1 R* Oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ M) B6 F: g9 \/ A1 y; W; Khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' ]7 F9 q. d$ p7 M30,000 new households will form in the province during6 P- c) |: U- ?
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ s6 J! W3 x# y# DEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) k$ P' p1 ?" h$ X' g& K
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ ?) k2 v* U  p  h
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
3 r! y3 N# Z0 L( v; }8 @( Ehas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ w6 e* t/ k; A7 f* Q- lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( c7 y5 b, h+ {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 a! h* `$ @' d& _0 B( q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
+ m( x, l0 T. X: ]8 cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is) Q7 z' Y& l, `; T
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  S1 X# p: Y: B4 s% i1 g1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. E% ]! q) a% w" vsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" X; x+ f$ Y- i2 }- L$ j8 S
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ x$ Y* j- `$ y. D0 E0 @7 e' [
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ y, w3 ^# F# {: q. {
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747  k/ g: V# I8 N; p4 D0 z* ], j. i' o0 C6 C
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 _% q9 ?  ^$ v1 U# \% precorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- r  n) A! }+ ]0 X' `) m0 c5 I# c
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ x& c. ~4 f* ^/ d9 Dmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 E9 M# m0 d! L+ h- gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& u  g/ L* S1 [- T" J9 T: h. q/ }rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 K! n1 W0 q/ S/ qThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 u* s# S; N. z, j; B5 ~
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; V7 Y- B% y5 s- L' r
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 R( e0 c! Z4 a9 yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* b# G# e3 Q8 Z% N( I2 m/ U: _
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  g  y1 ^# M% f6 Z3 r) \prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 a3 Z6 m/ A% F4 h+ |: L1 i  [though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 o/ }4 n, F8 ~! H8 Z. mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 l+ _& C" ^$ P8 m( ^" y, pThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: I2 B0 D; o5 z3 ]% Dresale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 c. |) K) c" C; @# Wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- G. O4 X- H) s3 p  Q2 lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’5 X& A, ?1 V( [* K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, G6 Q* ]' e) ]
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 F5 h$ `" y. w- Ileg down over 2009.  K8 S1 \2 k  B1 u/ x1 j

! X/ V( \, r  s( b$ j8 ?[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 T+ R+ b5 f" _/ x4 v! o7 PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ! z9 \, N8 a! N' U
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" @9 f8 R! x$ ?3 I
4 `$ }( u* G7 A, w
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments# _8 T2 n& q! n2 X

, I. N8 [. K8 X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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