埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2144|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
6 @& S6 E' c8 X3 O3 f
$ o7 k7 E5 [! p5 }5 _3 K  sTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ' @, E1 W! R! H) T

# h/ @  t7 F" J9 R: DThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
, w$ W- f8 Q' z! i# Q9 L
( \" F+ Q5 j& k2 R" @* |2 j. K1 Q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. : \, G8 n6 t/ _5 ^5 H; G5 Y
( p- z) ~- R. Y: V# C- T) O/ u- B
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
; y& j( L' A* e& H* P8 T' ~$ X( y
) I; @+ c% _4 w5 P8 y' zTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
& }; i4 d: o- p' k$ \6 G$ ^( m
# K$ f- @$ m9 c9 S, D2 Q) I! O"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
$ L4 R. X! A1 f, S3 ]4 g6 u% O9 x5 i4 I+ D5 V
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
. O8 h4 Z$ o: x+ \7 j
) U" B6 ^) T1 I( S8 N5 vMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
" R0 C, t2 d- N6 M  ^' t3 V
0 s: M9 E# i7 M$ ehttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
( S1 p+ e2 ?7 S& `' }  Z
, _1 ~& ?* ~5 ?
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! D% W/ N5 e+ C) [5 I* Z1 O) b$ m5 A

; L8 c* p" E* d[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% s2 y0 i8 J3 W0 j8 O" ~ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
1 T2 l. h+ U, H! |' C" @4 @. k1 I# d$ L
) N* ?9 w3 N% X' G[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . t7 Q4 |  G5 S3 s# W1 l& _
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

6 s6 A5 k1 Z5 W1 a5 W4 Q很多人都回学校深造去了  [" O8 j( f! z( K$ G6 r
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
! e: D& f1 j; i$ `0 M) L( ZWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 }0 X, X$ O2 L2 n/ L) ]& C% k9 t
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton5 X0 z- s4 l, C
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# t% H6 p4 R* h$ J+ q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household8 m5 d. k, E, p5 y3 t0 E+ G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* f. L! Z) N" N  ~3 }
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. Z' ]! g1 ~8 l, m* @; `the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 Q( Z; k, W4 K& |' {4 Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous: c5 i: B, }8 \3 j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 s, e. p7 O7 ~. D: F! y
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
* `8 P0 c) T. o& y1 f' m. }to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year  c! {. L/ w' U% @( l% M6 m3 L8 ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this& q, Y3 q4 k. D5 r" k0 P, a+ a
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
+ A5 `) @2 m2 h; `homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around2 v! i: e# P: ^7 k0 n
30,000 new households will form in the province during& }, `. k7 I" u+ L' |' Z- S8 G
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: U0 [. }# H2 k  ?% t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 l' J. _: C8 \, _+ w) khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, \& s- ]3 D4 F+ n9 M& fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta/ j. ~9 q% N, f# g, A6 m
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" |- f- r' G( `0 x5 g$ g% [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* y( g0 g  `7 C0 v1 x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 c6 b& J' j1 O) S) q* [: Isales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 D" H$ ^3 A5 g. }  Hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, q1 c- @) y6 X$ m5 L/ r/ Z- w
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
# L, B/ V4 X- Q: c* u" B1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# [$ R0 b  S" q. Zsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 N& u# Z5 Q4 L$ S- B$ Ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
9 P' J1 q6 ~/ K) H  }: b* {1 b/ Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
  A8 h6 G/ t" l! C; _4 Dunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 a. r: x" [8 R+ T: Wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ Y1 q! R  q0 Z( i+ p1 f
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 I9 ^2 |8 B; X  l2 \! n! }4 m( K0 p- Oresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
4 ]9 @8 y5 C% g( ^0 Rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 U" o5 J6 u1 H5 d1 pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled1 J: j# `  u+ T! l1 v& M
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
, a; w# G6 \1 |' BThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, @) T6 @6 k3 ^8 |7 |+ I
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! ?7 \* [5 C" l; h6 S+ J
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan+ [7 x) [/ r; v9 b/ v8 o
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; v0 R( E5 r% E' ?; wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
4 H) T1 R; X7 Jprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! Q3 j$ u- _  t8 @) }though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% s: ?0 r/ y( l" ]& f" Ron average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; e3 d0 a8 r7 ~* q' H/ S0 {' DThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- r+ K6 b' `8 }# aresale price in February is evidence that past prices
  o3 B+ b, Q0 U2 xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 c8 B5 W4 C& I+ q2 bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 Z" s& T- V8 j- E: \9 [& A8 w. \deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( J7 r: X% O0 }7 F
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 r- i3 S* _' x4 G8 k% n4 A
leg down over 2009.. M/ R# i: y, j' P, ?( V6 y

# y9 `9 F1 w0 }7 D[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, }' z. a  s$ P, _! r- E% z1 I
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
0 |7 A" Q1 N8 _) O6 j$ J7 \; G

5 l+ }( ?0 A! Y; y/ Q- ?4 F" N) C[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 g" F1 R) ]$ K% ?$ m- s# a
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子2 A! Z4 T( p' L: O

1 ~" d7 o2 B. a$ u, Hhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
$ E+ l+ n% x  c( N6 b/ H5 g. A
$ G7 [7 u7 e. G  K- H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-3-30 23:35 , Processed in 0.222086 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表