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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta8 [% ^& ?/ o+ V1 S
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 x$ e2 d! X) J7 Jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( X d& p/ |; [1 }, } y* I
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 T2 y# L6 @% A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* X2 a$ e7 E) g2 @2 \ ?
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ _+ Q) I( J4 }8 Z3 T# M% W% X6 pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
, p5 ~8 G' P$ O5 ?the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 o9 K9 U/ i: C" E2 \( _: L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% O T/ {# p6 R2 j" Ppace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 f" V8 J/ ~! j& V. [( ?3 Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 Z) C4 A$ |5 X6 p: Q- T
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 ]' u4 G" w* j! t( x* Qprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this Y( H6 j/ j @1 V
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 g. \# A. |5 y. x& @: }/ |
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 ^! ?. I/ c2 Z8 z# c30,000 new households will form in the province during
' ?& ^, s/ ?% `1 }: g$ o" v5 @2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ L. ]1 J |: m2 G, B! p
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
: ?2 }8 E4 p, |. uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( r3 ?/ n' L5 S- o
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ }4 c# P# w n' S' l
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
& w( L* h* d; y6 j+ Y& z3 ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
/ F& V, E( z# Uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 W2 T- @" b0 q9 k4 l, tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ v2 H7 [ M, [clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. i3 y% u# ~) ?, B2 vexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of0 }% o9 K( Q" `+ w6 `! t1 I
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; w1 V+ m9 S' w5 n. @# [1 ~sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, h4 e4 P& Z: k# m
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
* H, v% b! g2 p8 w& D. B* Ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in3 j. q2 K6 N% }8 U, ~" E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# V9 G3 ?5 K8 _3 v+ ?
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 v4 o: G) Z! ], z2 Lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, h L ]/ t" f W
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 z/ S% O" F2 m* B+ |. {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
* _; m$ j. s9 Oof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
( o* h# C W4 brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.3 W- Z: P! L8 D& r+ V
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ d* g0 B" A; B8 d ~
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
8 A" j: s- \% x( B( Q# VAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. n7 L; k& J$ q" V
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! q% s" e9 L5 v3 r- wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. Y& c( f+ m% M: \' g% w% |1 |6 D
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 N! S8 H4 D+ e$ B: M6 H. @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 ~. u: ?+ B. S4 K3 n- [3 F4 A
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ e# b/ f# t& }% S1 a' m' o# T: D3 yThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average/ }+ `3 E* X# ?- s
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
4 v7 ]4 F8 {7 p$ x" D( c8 H: [exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) L9 ]" W7 T* Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’) ~. u& Y1 i3 ~/ ]/ W1 T) V7 |- h
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 W! P4 I5 N- D, `4 _" p* x: u& Z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( i. K: ^3 w) H Qleg down over 2009.
2 h5 \ b" s6 Z
7 d& n% k6 |) i; c1 Y9 R( k3 k[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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