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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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  ]/ j7 X3 t# n- m8 D4 _The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. * C4 m! S# }) |
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 t4 F$ o6 Z1 \- N5 {

- f9 ?# l& @' L/ l/ O( ?$ bNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  e8 Z' [. @; \! l, M5 X$ x
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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- j) }: v2 g( `8 e) {  A9 h8 T" t"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.# G* {* ?# q  z0 v! [3 X

9 Z! u8 W$ Q! i& |' Y7 }Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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; r: V- V8 B& S7 ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes," C$ h) B! l3 }' y

* A; U1 a% i, W! o[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。7 i8 r. W* z; ~& L5 q1 _* X! v5 w, F' B
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- X# `* x4 N7 i* I0 r; X/ ]  c[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* V; J" s) r8 q3 f跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了0 l8 U7 z( d1 ?/ [$ Q5 ]1 u( O. L
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta* b% ?/ c) y# d% b# Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) a. P% ]& r, y5 zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. k" P1 }" [% o. o& [
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, w% I3 O1 U- X% j' K! {9 Q% j
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household! {! x+ L, T5 I7 l- i% x2 x5 P( J
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided! w" x9 ^2 j  [
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% W4 X$ ], ?& O2 s* x- J$ s8 }the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
. N, Y( e) F% u( bmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous, {6 U' p6 _- H4 j/ M6 v
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) _) s0 C# G, I& A) I
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. m9 h5 q: k/ J! ~9 c- a: a
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' |) j5 T0 M4 r7 Y! P# t# V
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this. N; B% e/ U- U) N6 R6 g9 V7 _7 G
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 j5 F9 C% x) g+ Q# x/ z  a: Qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 r7 U; |2 M6 F
30,000 new households will form in the province during8 L  q, I1 q4 |; ]* p* U& N
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.; X, Y! b3 F. }7 N9 ]' u" l1 g9 P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 I- E9 P5 H, d$ N' [6 Y; ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! ^, N5 p. H/ l( ~3 c# Y0 Q: R. N" C) eduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, ^# a% k& _, D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new' K# \2 ]6 R6 o0 Q' L, ], p4 B
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
0 S- T- @$ ]' |7 |& {/ X% X- ^% j% O( Lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 Q% k% @7 V; E; w& E
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
8 y5 x7 c9 w. fclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ S% x$ w2 I" x8 g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 s& J0 t; _" g2 {- T! \1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ m/ k$ K  H6 M9 Q! G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ e" M3 i  H' @( e% Ybuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 e! r  `" C  Itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 ]1 }! _$ V9 i' I) Yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 J  ~$ G1 e/ v+ Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# Y: b; }; R- a7 Frecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 K  e! q" _$ [2 Y2 x2 uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' S1 `$ }9 u: V+ |. z5 Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. _. ?% T% q( f& L; \/ b. bof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. H9 w+ Q( P! a2 i6 @4 u; prapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* P  E5 z3 W- G( J. L4 T. `
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) S( W/ Q3 J) ]4 i  E  pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# \  s. N2 `! n5 X0 H( RAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan9 i( g- j2 \1 \7 x0 F. m
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ O2 S3 w7 v  d/ Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" `- m& B0 G2 m0 V: lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
9 w, }- ?$ k3 j( ]3 cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ |+ H6 O3 ?1 {: n3 h
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# H3 D) r4 G$ aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( h* C  @# h2 E2 n' Sresale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 w* f  H/ w% l- g' S8 l8 b$ uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: c) N/ ], [) m1 c  z0 s$ `0 s" jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
+ O/ |9 d* J! G& n3 S, ]$ Gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# i( G) ?4 W: O2 m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. r9 S* v$ {, t! f  L/ T- A
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 Q& C* f) ?% V$ [& Q5 h
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
, ~7 [' P, j& a  v: o翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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