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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' z+ l5 u) ~) y4 K! G1 ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
" G7 l- F9 i/ q0 X1 x0 W3 [boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 ^1 Y' P0 t8 E5 E6 |8 G: y Q6 T% Aare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% q5 g; P4 Z! d, `9 _
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" i7 f! u4 ?' y7 c
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 i* {7 m0 M: }: [* N8 _+ B& ~" lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" W- m+ O/ S& ?% G) mthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 b% V4 B7 A8 s- v6 E8 e* R7 cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous; O0 ? _# ^+ e' H- A% e, k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed Z4 M6 Q! \6 O6 u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 m9 p& L$ p' Y gto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year4 r& _; I; g, W" l; G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this5 a* G' J ^+ S" J
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& X* S4 s* ~% K8 @+ s- M
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ W# h2 @8 ]/ U( U( P
30,000 new households will form in the province during( h3 r: |6 H4 T9 {0 G1 \
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 z0 L; `7 G! A; d; J2 |5 L
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& ]$ |; u! z9 K! {
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%" _0 b4 W* Y: Z* m, j% {- B
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ b7 p' F5 N8 Q6 o
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 t& |) p+ W; a( e, n1 l9 G0 m. \9 ]households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, ~! ?! p6 R- P$ Aduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 }9 D9 C1 R/ N$ A& l7 F
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; E0 ~% \* z$ ^# p# T" Hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is j6 U+ j$ P" S! u& l( G7 @' Q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' r1 j' u0 l6 V* B
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! n Y1 { J1 @" N$ G3 Hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ O6 U" b6 N4 a5 G. M/ ]buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 a( C; ~; J& U; t; Etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 W5 X& Y+ [" W4 L3 t6 `
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7475 L. H+ a9 K) V: [+ K: B2 p
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% A) x5 j. @7 b. {. l5 E- P1 x* ?1 ]) l, krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 N u4 _& r6 T( f1 i% O
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, t' _/ J8 u$ a$ } X9 v H2 K
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 W6 e; _5 o" j3 l! {: D4 \' T& U
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
\/ F- ?. \! n. d$ a5 W: w. hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 f3 g! p- j: O# CThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
' |# l6 U* c: l) Y; o1 bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; A; Q+ U. h0 I# X8 rAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan: d0 X* @" u% W: J1 p5 l
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 i. b( V) [, H( ?* wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& n( l( f P" t. Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" ]$ U) e8 c. c% Sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ }+ m# `! F, f6 C% w
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, ?2 ~, s; T7 l. ?8 R! nThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 ?( r7 B# P* G, }+ Z% {
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
6 \6 ^1 c8 v. E; P0 _/ O' Dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove, d( p$ e3 |+ v6 S4 t3 O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
3 A1 [( L$ @& [# c* e7 Bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 c Z6 I) X( q$ r) r0 ?
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%, _. s+ f) B8 Z4 j
leg down over 2009.
, o3 C' F5 W' ]& d, o' B) g
0 Y6 }% S( M6 y) w[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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