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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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( m/ n( f2 t# b% H2 {! LTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 4 Z/ T# q5 J6 H, V, U
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . u0 f: _+ {4 _# G
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 2 r+ O& m4 M' A7 B. m
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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! C9 I6 t$ _: v0 U6 jTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000., R2 I2 w/ V+ z' l  E: S

3 X7 N7 ^0 Z( [3 V2 L1 Z0 i( b9 y"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) J2 W& `& K3 G& o

. M& W) d' S& Y; _9 P- B1 M: j# ZMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. # V3 l& n' L$ `9 H/ U" e! W3 J( V

8 {6 _; @) G6 D+ ^) i! Dhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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; o% w; p1 d. N& X' g: ~TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% i! S% m/ }) r9 j! j6 g0 Z# e

7 }( W/ P( Y' S; N[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。' m% \$ M( n; A1 F; t' f# I
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。4 Z. q: @" G5 ]: d5 [( `2 q1 v
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
7 M% g( C. e# o- B) \, A" ]+ J跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了& C$ F2 ]3 o: m0 X3 e: N
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& y4 q) b7 {+ G0 J1 a( k: V
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 ?$ Y0 A' o$ I  k4 f& ]boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& ^1 J, t4 t, y0 U* i2 y4 }& k( Tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 r3 m: n% {: O; e4 F" O2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 q% g- e0 q  L" [9 y' Q; a: M5 |formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
4 l" {/ G  K1 hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, w8 V0 H+ c4 U
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) l7 q7 {6 y" T. C- |. f' H8 jmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous# R! U4 R8 Y# R- T' `3 v( Z& B7 n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed5 b! b+ {) {% P" {0 J7 ?
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined: u" e' c; i9 h. q& C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year  r" X. B! B: }' b
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ C) u+ y6 z" n- [2 R7 B' M
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( p' o8 K1 F' ?3 z; `1 d9 l+ Thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 t3 \% J+ Y; t0 M! o2 N5 C
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: l& K2 h1 S, G* X( `8 m2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) H+ d) }* _" h, R8 {" REven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% Y+ `0 |2 u6 Q1 m8 n2 ?0 B0 E) [homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& S' p1 N7 V7 \! u3 q  E( _
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
; \7 S3 M1 I$ L" B6 r  k2 Ihas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 f9 u) }2 {9 o4 K, G. phouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 R, O( |+ \2 w% ?9 mduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 [9 v; W# b; @9 |' vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories6 {7 l5 _! ^2 I8 V9 n1 j
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is; D+ }% c' w+ q1 L4 @
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  Y7 i. g7 B( J3 H! j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a) f8 U- x& y/ n! Y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. \- A' M  }' |* F6 W+ Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) i" q: K* [) J$ [& _
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) K; M5 e9 @( S; B+ X. P0 o, x: e
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" y; M7 T  I; h
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
0 e. O' D, p7 G; zrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# O& N' v. Z' k
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. f- ?4 I: A# y; H1 y% S3 K
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
7 e5 ]- j( k- X8 s( w2 O  yof new singles, and, with demand having cooled) d5 ?3 o3 G8 m" }- e
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 H9 B8 ~: ~+ d$ ^" V4 ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 D' Y: V5 E7 g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.6 {& A7 }5 s6 S1 G0 p( w. {9 N
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 R' C2 O+ {1 q. n9 e+ g9 ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) G$ ]- N# I# G1 Drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 ?, ]( n; _* \prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
# A. c+ f( \3 F+ ^& Zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners9 Q: Q9 ?$ o- G* Y5 L4 W
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., U. [* t( i2 r% z$ n, T; k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% X8 C; O% s$ `9 t6 L4 J& F% uresale price in February is evidence that past prices; Q  D) d; I+ y! G# ]+ ^
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
# j0 ?  g( }. z7 Whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) j+ A5 p% m9 P- z) s! {( q1 Z, Wdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) _$ H- w5 K4 h! `9 f/ g  P, SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 J& ?+ z4 Y7 fleg down over 2009.: M4 h8 J; d5 m8 B, f
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 h  K7 o! s, }6 J# W, X) e
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 a7 s; z0 N$ _6 S+ R- n8 y翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子, h6 c' ?0 q* I3 N$ d& T3 `( P% [. U

8 P. G/ T5 K2 X6 k7 k: Dhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. o6 u/ Q: C9 D' W
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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