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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics./ w, u+ V( I  b' Z8 @
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ; X# i" X/ [* }3 X, G: u
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.* |3 m0 A* x/ `) }( e

3 o7 b, \3 v' ~( X& l9 T$ s  u3 WTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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* P! U  v, m+ H" d' b"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.   B' M. e  S9 H- S" x
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 z' K6 q3 D9 Y. l# I, | 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* o& k( d3 a, p4 G
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . }) M  u1 e9 e0 H$ z* Q$ u
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
3 T1 I1 b7 J; I8 Z3 X% `- h/ N嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, N* D( X) f4 V8 gWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
/ t: ?/ i2 g) p/ F, m& v* Rboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! t5 w( F6 C' [' C) ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; K* J) \! R6 \9 C- w/ H
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 l! O' p% W4 G% ~6 y5 l
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* ^# [/ `( [5 U
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
. _7 m0 b% O3 `) _& Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and, h0 n  t2 Z) M9 b% i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. ^; ^4 ^" {( E) F6 Z* c' k, W- |, Epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed3 t( x# Z( S' }; U
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. j  V- w; m, M" }
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year6 F5 a2 u$ a7 C
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 Q  g$ T) U$ y' P1 [
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,. O" }0 G, i, P! r" W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ B8 u( O0 p/ g' D; S! @. t
30,000 new households will form in the province during
: N2 _2 w% Z5 ]; T4 K9 _" k+ I2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: C5 r- J: s7 tEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
8 F% s; v6 Q& U4 u& t% H% _0 phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) k1 N; l' ]+ w9 z9 Y+ }during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 v9 D/ D+ |$ O9 r
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 p5 J7 ~8 B. |& O/ y5 R1 r( M
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" M* }$ S% k3 I4 G: cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 `3 w) ?; _+ X( Rsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( D6 L9 B! {7 A2 c; `clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ z$ W0 e5 O# y' d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ R: z5 G1 s1 F1 k9 Y1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 A! ^1 f& B  ?* `" @: Asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
  u5 u- C! _2 O3 g1 mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) t# d& r, H2 n
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* c( W2 e0 T/ {* R* munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 Q3 R2 D" b" Q5 T2 J& G
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 b1 B2 v) T8 l+ N" a7 Q0 z$ z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
4 E/ T6 A9 S  z$ G% u; Nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 p1 y+ W1 I/ K
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 Q8 Q4 A+ W) P* Kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled2 _3 R- r( o- l9 s1 L* ~
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 g" |' X9 @; n9 t. V% @5 X9 w* I& ?
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" Q0 a. K2 I  t* a$ R* f: b9 s" g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; M8 @& u; d. q/ z1 E
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan0 X& f. w" n5 W" t# D: O) S# O' @" }
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
! m1 A* M. N( M; rrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 u& l  v% p- Q4 J: N2 }0 u6 @
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: t) M/ n+ V7 N$ I  b2 lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: i" j) C% D( i. f) R2 eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* ^* d  c" ^& r
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: S$ u# P9 y! y. \) E
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# F9 b3 P9 p7 k, dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: ?* @; d2 Y) Z2 S. M0 q1 m4 xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
  l$ U7 d, N, a8 Z+ Jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# l4 f" T  g4 O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%- m& {! l8 t; }
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% L2 L- p. y3 G$ [5 I4 ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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/ [6 N" g8 D. h% \; o+ ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
' v7 C7 m7 g/ J! W翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* J: h; a5 }0 T# Y3 Z, E
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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