 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
: E* t" K& R1 `, O/ W2 TWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; }4 l4 ^/ |+ Q% i
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
: N( j8 u2 w$ L6 iare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# }' c: D1 t* s
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
% L ^. u ?( Uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 f" h4 H5 Q& }" j. ]from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
) Y a' Q& m" J8 ^7 o8 Q Rthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' m; q+ X, ^5 b( i: H9 A5 n
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 }; d1 p5 h! A( o/ Z, s
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed2 r. H; c/ \- }1 Z0 F# T% Z4 h
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 Z1 H( n5 ]! q- _- }+ y' Z5 v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 l9 n* Z2 F9 h! P s; E* I
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 x L2 p% H) n' l7 ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& E; C+ |2 q2 z; e/ A H
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 ?; G( r/ L7 l; y% b; b$ }
30,000 new households will form in the province during8 ?4 N( Z: z/ O0 A
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" u3 d' w' o, W8 P* y+ fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 }/ O2 s5 Q" Z y( ^/ A4 U3 G
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& N& Q9 t0 w0 `3 y5 z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 x: u" v, Y" a0 q2 ~+ i7 F: D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 Q. I6 O; U: @7 e( d, E/ u
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
+ c+ ~ Z* N& r% b1 K8 F% X% O8 Fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
: M0 m" F" Y- i% Ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ C \4 y- B; i) ~( D0 M9 |
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 K- p) `) q) t1 @excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ V7 U( t+ [1 q' i
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
9 P0 `& W! Z. Nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 n& Y1 ^& T1 s" t/ Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in+ b$ K$ e2 y$ [8 p# [: l& K
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, [5 C- g( F+ A' w# E7 ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
, U6 ~; O$ p4 M9 K* x, B& z) h5 [6 Cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 ~4 C4 o# S2 F7 y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& I& M# @4 Z X3 k' v+ Zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ \& W8 d3 ]: ?9 C0 j3 O; U# Pmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* X L7 Z' A0 V
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
% e( @" D, Q3 Q/ xrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; l& b7 D/ h7 s3 T9 G% J
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* a& L: V# s+ ~. pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: N5 _; E7 h# [! d% M. J8 zAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
' |8 [' S1 O: m7 I) A$ Yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced& o* e) q( M. _" \* l j
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) O$ [2 ^3 x Y+ X
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
2 s+ t m4 x/ h8 q2 _though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
C' E2 W. \6 [( Y, _# M8 [on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* R# z- y, _" D; VThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 ~" p8 m& \. i2 d, i
resale price in February is evidence that past prices" V7 h, _1 `% `4 j# o$ m( D
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
/ R- y' B& E- S( yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* p/ n: F. g+ h0 Z5 ^! ~% zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 n& l. \/ e% ~# K! QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# Y g- k1 c: \$ E% f4 ~; p) X; V( j; Y3 D
leg down over 2009.
4 e+ Y+ L$ |( ] N
0 I4 h* v( \1 y/ k% d: `% Y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|