 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta5 n% T, \. t" X+ {9 X8 ?0 H2 N
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. V) C, ?, O# Y9 Yboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 a4 D& N. g+ U( I" b4 W6 k
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, Y* ^& x8 G6 w) `2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. V. a2 v4 l7 |1 Z# Rformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 i1 Y4 E3 m+ Y& d0 Ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: q$ ^; M+ Y/ ~the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and' [/ f# O' `3 m( Q0 @
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) f* y7 V. w8 Y, @- v6 b
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ }) [5 f0 i+ Y" a7 Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined ]' ~$ T& Z( o- C
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. K% p" x$ C( d' jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this8 i3 I- P& C2 g) g: G
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
' ~. T7 R! `" Q2 ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" q- h+ Y( _0 o9 w4 \- \9 ?7 f6 d: v
30,000 new households will form in the province during
' D3 q/ i. N0 z' {1 _9 _& ]2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! X5 p( z, X* {
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ M Y2 _& `$ D2 u; Q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
I6 H# e2 P8 O% _6 cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% q# y# G7 e$ ]4 g0 }- shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new0 e f2 E& j9 M! B4 J
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* Q' e) z6 H: M X5 ?+ n
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 Y2 t o1 ?2 G7 P9 nsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories# Z% q2 B" a4 b+ d( s
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& b1 p3 g3 Q8 ?5 x! l* U: ?excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' Y9 g, ^! q( s$ @/ d
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 {2 B3 G3 c4 J- o2 n* [sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 n" l. C8 |& u4 }% Z
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 H+ s* a' ]# }) j! M; J1 Ltwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 B( H3 j7 ?/ }- Z- j/ Sunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747$ B& {3 c/ X/ `( q! a y# m0 X6 g
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 e) X% S7 O( w* I# O! {/ brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* s3 H% C. E0 H+ Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
. k% ]& J; A( X3 Y* K) Smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 ~( L$ w/ a+ N5 _2 P. aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, @' h# z) ?# `' Srapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' Z9 _! k; ]; }9 q m
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s o# c2 t v% _0 @# L4 E- g
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- m& q# G- N+ k9 JAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
5 L! `2 o0 q+ Y6 Khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 a1 P8 ?* y; L# k% c- |2 i# E: C% zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ R/ {5 _/ q _) L
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
/ R4 ^ ~6 n1 u2 nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( c; [: L. b5 S( _on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
/ U! b; b* G iThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
2 |5 T' i" K# N1 T7 w( T9 |$ p0 Cresale price in February is evidence that past prices/ W8 l5 v* \+ N2 p- y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' v4 R5 f1 m' T7 b( @. p
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
: i4 w! ?6 l1 {* V( J9 ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 `, x( z8 J" V+ XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%1 H! A3 h4 [0 ]$ R
leg down over 2009.
{, V: X& _5 A. J3 [6 p3 {& O, h k! _3 Q$ ~, O- v i! j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|