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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 v# p5 I- a d$ ^2 TWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* R& }, n% c( oboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ Q: t9 c3 W" V5 j2 P/ N \: L
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
, u, b8 U% |- m0 r% @% J: T3 f2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household+ M, v$ B' P2 l1 Y; q( V+ x. W
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 S5 }% z9 @4 m. Y$ O
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ I% f) Y. f# m9 Vthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 }' D8 N/ e7 T! O5 }6 f- s# C9 M
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 i, o# V% s9 ]9 Y$ Kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! `6 l" h0 [3 v$ \) `precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" h4 x6 {! l7 F" Y% lto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ a6 o: J# f, j5 n8 ~. W/ O% W
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- N4 o2 a* ?: T; j: }
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; K& ^1 J V7 W W3 dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
) m0 s( `) J1 @30,000 new households will form in the province during* D& W' v' i: `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 B. v% T6 n; YEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 H; G3 T, `$ L+ C9 d+ ~homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%* u0 g! J8 [" G0 u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta" J2 k1 t* x7 K2 C/ e# V! E
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ D3 J9 Q% o3 t% j7 B2 w& \" bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ w1 j. N, N4 ~) p9 J A7 O" H
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 I# D5 k0 n# j5 _/ [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& ^" }# J6 H# y, ^, _9 D' i
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
6 O- k3 D8 ?! }" k8 u6 c, Iexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of0 `4 n) N8 c" x9 Z7 }' }% Y8 t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; y1 ^) Z2 E$ K9 P5 s* @0 Y( hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" L; r8 }# V- Q' _- gbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in a$ Q" J3 @1 P2 N
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 H0 f9 `0 \& Z1 [% I4 W
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( M' v* i+ ^" q3 V" e' ^unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 c9 H5 v1 v7 {/ i+ a" @
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 p7 r+ h& f$ h* [9 G+ j
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s/ @: h3 S. u# h, s% R, S" \9 u
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
2 A1 e( ~6 z- x( w3 E9 Rof new singles, and, with demand having cooled }: ~; x, B: m& H
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated. k2 {$ e) z8 h0 `+ F+ ^7 a6 o
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s: L5 v$ U4 S! C) f+ P
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.. `! a% }, ]1 v7 M$ ?# C
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 t0 {2 i- t$ G' I1 B5 _1 _
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced1 l! o' m5 ` z) U$ t
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! a ^& p4 E) J* O l, C |' j8 \( b; y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 {4 J! [3 I/ W {
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 W. a: I, e1 ?5 y% m; C
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
8 W/ |! P$ `* k# T. fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 \. R' L, W* v
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' O/ ]6 j9 u, [) Z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: O' r( ]" Y! |homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 f3 A# G. f: O3 q/ gdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( [9 L2 b7 t* D0 n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
4 @0 y+ E& Q" F; s5 L% f- E3 kleg down over 2009.- T( s: K j8 V# }
a5 k' V4 L! ^0 m; w
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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