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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.5 R' k2 G& ^& C9 J8 g

* b9 J/ J3 ~, z. {TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 6 n6 g0 k4 J1 x# p
6 z$ I- N# r  c8 z: U
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 6 m! G9 @6 c/ \: T* L
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. - A2 q/ a% |/ C* x: h6 Z4 f" e
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
* _7 K/ z) W3 h6 U! u& w
$ z7 h" Q9 F! g. B5 {TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ G* k$ A% j0 W8 x

. h- d% A5 [: u+ z$ }"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
) P) C* Y. F8 c. u" j; E
4 N3 ^. t% O' X/ k& U; _TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.; X% @; ?, m7 W  q0 v
7 `0 B; i; y- X1 g7 t* D4 x
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.   o' P# S+ `- o6 ~, ?' I

. m$ |/ E2 A$ r' s% Mhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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- [# W5 n1 @8 N+ B5 N2 W" X, o; n" LTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,( c& D/ O3 `/ g# R) i
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ M& |: y- P& W$ n" v+ n4 c& {, N  q 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。) {( [3 z7 i( d0 v7 Y7 u

, o) l- J" ]( b% x/ y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 " O; d  O! n; r; l1 }1 J
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了( ]7 F" p: M) {' \- N
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
4 H8 I; g5 W5 B' ]! U4 kWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 I7 ^9 S) l0 s8 l# n2 W1 i& dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton( J5 w+ `( u5 g) c4 }- c3 ?! p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ t8 H; b0 |( C  ?9 `, C) u; w2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- H8 u- N+ u1 ]0 Eformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
0 {6 U- k* v5 t& O2 j# pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  I, E# D' K1 z$ K6 w/ ^the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and" m* r- U! C4 ]2 K/ _9 M* j
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# v3 V6 V: G/ cpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed4 \" C- y; Q7 s. k
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 o4 ?8 m& T. z, L+ f/ \/ u- h, @to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year: t/ q# S+ L; I. {- y4 q. j
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 Z, l4 }! Z) @; ]& eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* F( ]8 j6 z" [# l) f8 B) J0 T7 t2 q$ A
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( @% N  {7 w; r  |- f- |7 U9 f" r30,000 new households will form in the province during
, y  k0 K3 Q) a/ O2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" e. ]9 G$ L; F( b9 K1 V  gEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 C4 C/ P1 O1 a4 I! i- n
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( ]5 f0 |0 i, i
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# z1 p& M. G  O- w7 v  p; q# khas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new" I2 b& [) H! n( C! l. m( p
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 e. O( Y9 @/ C, O% V: a3 b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 R1 O3 M/ L1 v8 [; {7 u
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; V7 i  k3 k( {' e- y% w8 n9 |; Oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
! w' _" U4 o1 zexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* C' x; P% ~; e8 U, {4 T! s* c1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( r$ X7 P2 p. \6 z
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# u3 V) G- E0 ~# I. G+ zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* T/ k- M) _& D2 ?$ z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( T, e) |+ [% V  A4 s$ X3 W. u
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( a+ `, B; \& C- ^unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 |: P: P0 q* q1 }" E/ wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 j% _: _. z0 b! z! o6 Wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 z8 I& W% D+ W# v& O2 d2 s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) L; b' j0 x# q; _) ?. E
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 E8 T  v% |& l9 Zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated." N+ ~& Q# i: t% z' ^* Z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
1 w* V. G6 g$ z  F/ iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 C# `: r7 [7 ]9 P6 N2 QAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 F9 q5 ~5 y, X% B% ^: Mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 I3 h" [% Q6 _5 {* t* W1 Nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
2 h. N& t0 \4 h0 x9 N1 }2 K2 @prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' G5 n4 x" |/ mthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' O' V5 Q' s% R/ L* c  _7 \* H
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 e, X4 [* q0 d5 j1 m1 t9 U% AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
) X6 J& d: X* l) h9 {resale price in February is evidence that past prices
# a% t" e( N% l6 D* Cexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 T8 w( h4 }: a/ y1 H
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 y) S) C( \; p! I) |, Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- R: C% _$ d  gAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( V0 @  X7 n6 y
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,2 v# u4 ~. e/ Z" X8 A& f# ~
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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/ ?9 C  _& ]; J1 o8 \) M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% G9 \3 Y* k4 G) c6 h翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments9 M2 I  w  e9 q: O( d
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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