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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 Z- k; [5 k! P' @

& T4 Y3 c4 C0 X* u& n  kTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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0 L1 s; W7 H1 C$ v/ nThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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9 l; l6 ]6 o/ U& V. }3 ["Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ) {0 k. h* y$ x  {1 \" H

# p3 F* j2 _0 D8 {7 LNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.) U) Y6 a: D$ V( m  w
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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8 d  x2 |1 ~0 s, [! |; P, O3 o"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. - M) F7 Z+ y/ w- ~

" J$ Q4 N0 v3 j7 nTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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- ~9 Q3 c. a- e8 I$ J) ^Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. * g2 t0 l6 l( j, ~( P: v
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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5 k6 ]5 }# z4 l. r9 U- |0 fTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,4 W3 c; O) \4 G# ~3 ^* ~7 b+ @( [

2 e8 J- h6 ]. Q7 ?2 _[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% r# {4 D1 ^1 ^" V% E, u
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。4 k" T$ t3 l, B2 T* y8 a
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + T" O* k' H: N) Q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

. |2 l/ C7 z5 o( V, a9 I0 F1 ~很多人都回学校深造去了1 r% ]! h; s& ^! k$ x& d
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta3 e* i: O9 o! j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its. j! m* |- f% G( m, V# u+ y$ L9 I
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% ^5 \/ G+ J% J+ m
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to3 U2 g# _6 U( n* ]& n% Q
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 y! t6 a/ C9 V% tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ X) _% p, W* T! b' R" A
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# y! o  m6 `. D+ w' j$ x
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 y5 }6 C- X4 m- W$ F
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( {! t# e6 `. _9 F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 L( M3 ?2 {8 T. N
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 }& F( W: ?- o6 t' z$ H8 zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
9 Z1 f, {. w4 M* u& b  Cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 r; l( G: R' ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- c1 H+ n$ o; ?
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  n* u) J2 Q6 c' e% w30,000 new households will form in the province during: e) X2 Y4 C3 t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 x/ x1 n) j. c. X) vEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: t) h2 n( B! }6 ]; q6 C2 p
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' x& X1 v& w0 o# {4 W) jduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ o# |0 r( n" D) ?& B( w( U2 P  F/ Shas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) P) ?( x4 D- K% q/ ]/ Ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 `! Z0 E: d9 q, l$ d/ @1 J& o. B
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 U% m. X0 D7 t0 w# J0 J' s
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories/ r. r9 U7 ~2 ?2 k6 Q. f
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is# H, I: V; N: x9 l0 h8 d! C: ~
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: f9 ~" T: a+ ]5 k% Z  I
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a  }2 K4 H5 D" C& e" K
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( \/ z- w5 R0 m! c" c8 R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- M! l: u  r, S4 g' @' I* z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
* }( L0 l- ]: Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( i$ P6 [+ |- J! aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest5 i7 Z" T- ?5 G% i6 k0 h
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, Q, t) x$ ]" K6 w
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s( ?/ t" A3 h% F& d$ g/ d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 T/ K: n' q- {$ P3 b* ]of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 g! I2 z& c0 D& y# [5 O" Hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ A. Y6 c! ?0 _+ o8 @) W5 Z5 n+ _The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s. G/ K$ H' ]7 o. h: V" c
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." Z7 @$ L& W% Y) d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 ]7 I, m6 E# k) j4 Hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
* z6 m1 ^$ X! r$ ^9 I: J) h1 [relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' `; {# h& n2 ?) rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& e! A' @. K" f, U4 J' athough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
' R/ n1 j; _) B% z: a% s6 n% bon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 {% o7 [3 @6 m" E) O
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ Z3 R9 k7 N, T8 X
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
& h* N+ z9 ^+ _% v& {$ X' eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove' d. Q" f. w8 V0 X( O; O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# m3 B8 L1 R* u8 E: |deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- C) M! A" N) X; M5 H; jAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- H  X/ m8 e  h, aleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* J7 a+ ]2 T( Q- `Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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7 C) k  i. T5 ^4 K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" t, Q2 Q+ y3 a# V翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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