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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
5 C9 F3 f7 O) z9 w+ e# W+ ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its* b/ w8 x' O: M
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, c2 X- q9 {+ G$ ?+ xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ y( U. D+ M ]! k& I& q; j2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. Z8 C$ B4 k+ Y" T7 r: _! H
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided R: A9 \3 k/ b/ r) a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 D& a2 k5 n B; W7 A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 h2 p, f' O8 [
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
# [# d* I+ d. V4 w* hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed" C" c+ h9 P$ _1 D" y3 T
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; j3 x- s+ R& O) y, v
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; {8 m% J8 U" K, T* m1 L/ {! Mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) p4 U% D# r( ^' Pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ ~; T( S& y% W/ E2 [2 L$ t% Fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% J+ g5 e7 g' l: t2 X/ i% s/ K5 j30,000 new households will form in the province during# w( R) R7 j# s" v+ X- B1 N7 t
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 t5 X6 u% i4 J/ U4 K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( e2 a: U( x& ]: h. H! ?& B: I4 u
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
) I; s6 V, b u4 ?) Fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: k" d" F& ~0 A2 d. R& N
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& K0 r( n/ R6 }2 [9 ~/ f
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( B9 u( k0 h$ p2 e
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
_2 _4 Q. c" s1 p. M8 M! S4 Gsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
6 e% E- B- A* H) ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* K3 K" v+ J4 X7 |7 E
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- q& `& P. j' `; z. |' o k
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( @, h+ s8 h4 f% Q# U) C1 a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive! T5 X! D4 N# I/ d6 t' G3 P
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* g+ L: y9 ^, ~, A3 G
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" e$ C0 j# N" S- U+ Qunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, G( x* _- Y& G7 } O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" Z/ \ F/ z& J; P" M# [8 ], B% [recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
l4 c T" d: j5 m, |7 Rresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ t( a0 ]" a! S
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories; K4 r: N- [2 b" ]3 A- P
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: z; `, t+ Q+ l( X. ^" grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' K" O# p, t7 O" `% z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, ^, |. T% o1 x& b# _2 qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) t3 f1 d# n6 b8 f* m5 G: B
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
. [2 v3 z1 o8 r) G9 hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced! ~. i7 v( `2 M8 F' d
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale4 q( [# J$ h( ]* G7 @$ Q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 m" z! c; L( G: j. z
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 r7 ^1 |" D' i
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' L* ^( E0 e& P( {5 [' oThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. N& z) |) ]. c. W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 k0 w- L; z$ R1 `: p$ xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( \5 y$ W- d5 `
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ |* ^1 P o# t7 U7 V" kdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. w# A! a; \5 \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) a7 k5 J9 c+ ?, u% W4 V* cleg down over 2009.8 ]$ t) j6 G5 } u
V9 k9 f% q" @, X[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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