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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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. B5 F5 M+ s( G8 e6 y3 c. fTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. - s5 @# d* q2 m: Z# H

9 N9 Z4 A5 x* f# O9 ^. F. p- I) fThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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- D; \) [5 z6 h8 B6 {TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.. i2 X7 f3 J* o) q- l, C
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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- P# |& n9 K9 V& i" M2 q. C* @TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: F6 i3 X; T9 {8 m. q. g

( ~2 x+ j, v& p" M( k; cMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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" @( Z( b- k9 h9 U  o; m# CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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; V$ w4 e3 N' ~[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。& }' y, z1 v/ K, z; h& P/ h
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。2 ~7 Y" A  c4 _( J

3 `  F' [, `. b4 j6 G[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 8 n; N& U$ C. }5 ~$ b8 z8 w
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

. P8 W1 B. y/ ?7 f很多人都回学校深造去了& \: v0 [9 s1 g* h- L' G) z5 o; }* B
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta/ l' W6 r# e: E. r+ f: N2 D7 i4 F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# R) z/ z7 {+ }' [. n6 n) Qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& r, ^1 L& b; F9 }4 m$ j8 w6 O* F# Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: y( z3 q$ \9 O% T8 }2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- z3 ^6 z5 O5 j. [formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 _# g( r" v/ R* m
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& L1 P3 u6 k$ t7 @/ Nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 m- l5 }) m$ C- {1 z; v/ Omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 K5 \/ S" L! \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed  a6 V  X4 ~/ Y; m" E1 L3 W3 K! f
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ N' q* `9 l5 [4 w  Ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" `5 i6 ?5 G4 m; m0 L9 `5 ]
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' c9 u# a/ g* i& n: M% m0 v0 g8 zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 _& `" \6 Y; r! k5 V
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 O6 n1 ?% @7 ]; j
30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 m8 ~$ _: G; U* f# ]2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 Y% Z% e0 @; _
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) E; h& g* y- h2 X3 Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ M; k0 `( m* Hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  @, l' t" V: R* s. c4 W$ w
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 c4 S7 u; b- i1 ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! K) u8 J, }5 ]% t5 J! `
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( X( n" q' t. ]% x! U; J# tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  s1 Z( [4 x& ^/ Z0 a! ~' uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 c7 s: K7 {3 w: p$ X
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 e- b! z$ j/ K' c1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ `! a7 W* T, c
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; y- [+ N5 m2 M% u3 R  g
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! t5 X* V$ t: b" dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ _1 C- o- ?9 D6 }  z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# L' P1 m* p1 p$ Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) A- q$ w& V+ w1 K/ a/ X; p9 l, Y$ [recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the7 n9 M: a5 t# C3 x! w
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: f0 w5 z' A# j$ g( Tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories/ x# S. _8 t) u# A
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! _  Y' h0 F! `rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* k( S9 b# ]2 b/ v2 v% hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ a1 [) V+ [3 q8 c% R8 Wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! U9 T6 r$ @  Q' j8 UAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan% V& t6 B, U8 y; u, f" h6 u& ~+ p
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ w; F) @9 d6 e0 b% W7 {7 b
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 c9 P  w2 i, hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 t! S# C! U% Y# W3 S2 M' q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 V9 m1 g# p* {' F2 ~, \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% q3 _2 o0 _3 G" z* B  K7 gThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average, s1 |# m- t; _+ |& ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  U- p# j+ S1 M  t$ ?# s6 _0 [; R/ Oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 G: w' N5 {# b# A6 N. h
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& R5 X3 n8 I! [
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, F% L; Z6 H- p: Y/ ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* E+ r7 X6 w% ?. f
leg down over 2009.! Z0 u( i6 s! Q2 ]+ o% Q: E

) A8 M( g3 R( n8 _* J$ G8 d: U  p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' l! }  @9 g7 e3 oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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- [  r! M  M+ N- i7 y7 t  P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  A7 f$ C: ?0 }# f6 j# |翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子4 }) @& g( a: G0 W: n

. G+ _. j: h" z9 Z2 p, o! I2 @) Bhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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