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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 8 R. L/ S/ H4 g! z$ I6 L- |

8 r! ]8 o1 v' ~7 g. W# q. lThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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% M5 [7 D) t: Y6 CNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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( W2 ?4 C+ T. h! ^$ P  \TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.- W+ @0 h% d1 m5 Z/ V
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. / e5 a% }9 E; ?( N( ~3 A  k

6 [' H7 r  k( ^1 L6 DTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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, Z9 ]: R# W  S+ {$ M. R9 QMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ! i; S9 K& H! }4 Q6 ~0 D2 x( f
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,# E; o* {, ?9 [/ }. y: e

  Y& b6 `, M2 M* b8 j[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
/ o0 [0 i) U( m+ T  J4 G' n 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. g( q  P$ g) h3 M
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
- {  f1 Z# ~0 r6 f0 B( i跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了1 |3 C! q1 G( x" V& I" I
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta( `* z$ S; g1 C5 x& n' M' l2 n
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
  y) z. `) N# e9 N9 `' wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
; t. l) I; j( [% q" ^. _are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to' f4 i  R$ v6 H( T" p, h& Y2 D0 U
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household' D9 J( {& G% D5 A+ m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 J* l* a/ s- tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* T" X: A& L% V. t! M" I5 cthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and* R" p6 A, A) N6 C
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
- P8 y5 s7 I: |. H& U1 P4 o: _pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed& g1 U7 J: u. G
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! e# r% }$ z2 D
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& S  v; W* W; H+ U
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ }& f! l+ x4 v3 T: `
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
! e) V. H) K5 L) P. E3 ]0 c* yhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around8 C% Q" L$ o7 N4 b
30,000 new households will form in the province during: a9 q! t& `. k5 L5 X
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* G/ x7 g" }" {4 ^! R7 `6 F  c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s  o+ d% T6 D6 W" K
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 b) U; ?( ~+ h. E- wduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* u. ]3 S5 ^) hhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 K' @! v2 N# H3 K# w: Ehouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) v! r9 t8 E. |* F* Z) }5 Z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 H; T+ `. B# k- R9 Y8 d9 v0 V
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 o# _7 f8 C# @8 ]2 tclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ Y  k; c4 q6 I* C" y8 @5 K1 j" k4 N" C
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 z* U  V1 U4 k; t/ l% |& J2 u2 o1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
! {, B& p! z" y  rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" Q$ N2 s2 ^" h, ?6 [, h. @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 N4 }4 D) C9 R2 P2 b; ~8 a: Dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 v% Q& v: E  ?( U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 C6 ?0 c* G. q% d
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* }: d' O, q5 d7 c, {1 E$ B0 z- [0 orecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 M- f% J( P' `
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) Q* }% i* H+ f) M: Z7 b  t$ p' w
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories9 p! q' \0 r# z& C  `
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled  Z* U1 z5 |) {( r4 p
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ ^8 m- O, [, C( @0 ]
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s/ D; ^3 y" [' z' g0 H- p& @
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* [; @$ S* ^% g3 s/ yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan6 w; ]3 a5 Y! I5 a5 l0 s9 K' e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 H) c8 g, d( h6 _. L3 o. Erelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 N# l9 K" ^+ ?2 c
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" O0 P8 y  S3 n7 Ethough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& \( m6 u5 s2 F9 E6 ~1 `6 v- M
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
6 P: h# Y/ F' z" @The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: Z3 ?4 ]* K7 L3 s1 yresale price in February is evidence that past prices; y1 |9 z% i, [- @7 J3 `
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- K6 D$ T1 K! Y* Q: J2 q+ \; {7 bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
" c7 W/ D# f5 o/ ~deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; c6 {1 w& t3 y6 FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
0 ~$ o  \+ q/ ?+ w" w5 M0 y6 ~& o6 [( Hleg down over 2009.
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2 U& I' ?$ b; K4 c( V0 V8 d[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ Y& U* }% Q: f) \4 sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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/ R& v, Y# I* i! u2 V( T; z* ~8 W[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
) e; ]) ?2 [: x: P  G翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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3 Y. s4 Z; j- t6 Dhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments0 x; t% ]) l+ S, z

6 B/ e* K+ o! z( y[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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