ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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. B5 F5 M+ s( G8 e6 y3 c. fTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.

9 N9 Z4 A5 x* f# O9 ^. F. p- I) fThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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- D; \) [5 z6 h8 B6 {TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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- P# |& n9 K9 V& i" M2 q. C* @TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.

( ~2 x+ j, v& p" M( k; cMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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" @( Z( b- k9 h9 U  o; m# CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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; V$ w4 e3 N' ~[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

3 `  F' [, `. b4 j6 G[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

. P8 W1 B. y/ ?7 f很多人都回学校深造去了
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# R) z/ z7 {+ }' [. n6 n) Qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& r, ^1 L& b; F9 }4 m$ j8 w6 O* F# Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: y( z3 q$ \9 O% T8 }2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- z3 ^6 z5 O5 j. [formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& L1 P3 u6 k$ t7 @/ Nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 m- l5 }) m$ C- {1 z; v/ Omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
$ N' q* `9 l5 [4 w  Ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' c9 u# a/ g* i& n: M% m0 v0 g8 zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 m8 ~$ _: G; U* f# ]2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) E; h& g* y- h2 X3 Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ M; k0 `( m* Hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 c4 S7 u; b- i1 ghouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( X( n" q' t. ]% x! U; J# tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  s1 Z( [4 x& ^/ Z0 a! ~' uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 e- b! z$ j/ K' c1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! t5 X* V$ t: b" dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# L' P1 m* p1 p$ Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) A- q$ w& V+ w1 K/ a/ X; p9 l, Y$ [recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: f0 w5 z' A# j$ g( Tmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! _  Y' h0 F! `rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
* k( S9 b# ]2 b/ v2 v% hThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ a1 [) V+ [3 q8 c% R8 Wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
! U9 T6 r$ @  Q' j8 UAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
9 c9 P  w2 i, hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 V9 m1 g# p* {' F2 ~, \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% q3 _2 o0 _3 G" z* B  K7 gThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  U- p# j+ S1 M  t$ ?# s6 _0 [; R/ Oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
, F% L; Z6 H- p: Y/ ZAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.

) A8 M( g3 R( n8 _* J$ G8 d: U  p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' l! }  @9 g7 e3 oAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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- [  r! M  M+ N- i7 y7 t  P[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  A7 f$ C: ?0 }# f6 j# |翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

. G+ _. j: h" z9 Z2 p, o! I2 @) Bhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing