ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
  I7 c1 L1 }% T, V" ^. C) h
2 g7 d. A% y$ ^# HTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
0 N( `! b: T4 p' E7 S! T6 v- }3 ]
8 P& n* {  [5 x. U7 |: c7 VThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.

"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.

0 ~6 n! a$ ^# Y; w) ^% nNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.

1 \8 U8 j1 }7 a( d# e9 OTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
" `# |( {# P; S0 s
# b4 h) `* G5 o, I+ e3 ?( u; t"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.

, g8 M( k: u, z  OTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
+ r+ T$ h/ ^( [+ A' o7 S4 [/ Z
# ^& \! L- w( o: z- S7 IMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
& e" c) Q- U# f2 b' w- B$ X2 Q. }
' B, e7 _1 w0 Y, fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

# U# ?1 r' J+ x* q5 |) }[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

* Y2 X" }  m  h[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
3 U. T7 F6 m; X4 L9 V. Y嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
7 {, N  k& k" [' p5 `2 Oare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 _. J3 |0 W( |1 d6 oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& {, ]2 \4 H5 d% umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
1 Y; ^+ x8 \% u' @to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
1 F4 s1 L. Q) X' d& b; ^# f9 eyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
; P; H9 C' W1 `: k6 c" j% t: lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 t3 t( X2 J- F1 p" W30,000 new households will form in the province during
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
( \# s5 Q- E' D( a+ shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' A8 }5 P: F6 D* X% C. Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, _9 o% y) [: w: Dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- W1 j# E/ L: ?) I5 c& ]& nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 g& |3 A' o! g5 B1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& z' ]2 w+ ?! {4 y  u% O& _. n5 `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ i/ h, D; D( G. w7 ?2 Q) G0 Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 E0 i/ b! ^5 pof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
: I5 b9 N0 T/ Q, g, |; B( Hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
. j) P3 J& i" H1 s, D% CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
3 K% q0 E0 b" t" Yhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
" N1 S& B' {- B+ K/ xrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
; U, S2 q. ]8 dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
' X! _2 x; y$ L) ]though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 X4 F8 \6 _$ V$ V% uon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; z- Y& D5 I' G0 n! aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  z% Y9 U5 R3 _, y; b  ?6 [1 ~: Y$ `6 texceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 ?; `2 A  Q( v2 q; N5 Z4 _) \Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.
: `& E% R+ s" b" g  p
$ s: z/ ]: {4 \4 q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
- Q5 u' ]# C2 V, X4 K
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
" F9 P9 |5 G$ b5 X$ r0 t
4 \( ]) _  b: I4 A' h, x6 N[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing