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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" S) ^- o6 q' P6 j+ X. ?, M- U
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' g' a2 k1 v" ?& g. ]3 kboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! B- J5 ^6 e! z9 i" l0 X0 Tare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% J* D2 I, X$ N
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 f- j; F; W' C4 Z b$ {2 m
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& N% M" ]# i' f
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 _2 m, x% j: `3 ]; f
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& k2 r$ J2 [% _/ v4 c8 Q& Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( u2 t( A9 [+ ] b- |, ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ q4 ?; Z! P- V, yprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined6 ?, M) U/ y- ^, q5 I8 `& [
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year4 R/ \! S" ?$ Q' F, T3 [4 z
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( |. W* v9 h% C+ i0 q+ N5 F& V
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* h g) B% n6 T# q0 qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
6 c/ e. ^( ~" V% L30,000 new households will form in the province during
; S* {: O# n: H: ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
8 W' \; l1 Z& \: u- s' q6 O% zEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
% k- H' t4 Q# L ~% v4 Y8 N! ]2 @homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%% V/ y$ }* }6 l- I6 G! A2 A
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% |, q2 n( h& Mhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) a5 @; @! `+ |# R! L$ `9 d/ w+ E: L
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 q5 A1 g% S, ?5 ?0 E, n2 U
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
R" s( v* p& d: y6 A Csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) F$ O- a/ A1 J& j. A( H1 M4 m
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( Q5 j% }+ v* Z8 fexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" u- Q( F7 B# B2 ~ J
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a8 b I- {5 D1 r1 z j, R$ X/ Z, f! Q1 J
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive, r: F2 s, {4 o/ y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 [0 D. Z; P. \& w/ S) [two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in3 V* a" L: n& j T) e c) w! x
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
8 H% f3 l; x8 t1 Kunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' n9 s1 B: U/ p1 _! Lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- p' o( G0 R4 J/ M
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 c1 ]; [1 v; I( a, Z" smajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% }/ L4 K" o1 z( [& ^" T4 [
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
" O( c. X& E0 S! Irapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 i/ b/ \4 k! y/ O& g: \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
+ U9 b8 l" W1 j2 X9 n! {boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
/ L' X: } B6 S3 P3 qAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. v$ O" D! }, e- M; |
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ o" |5 s1 O8 @6 ?* O% K# A/ C
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 w5 K- O3 `9 t& E$ Wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
$ E: V* M. k& Y8 X8 W! j5 w9 hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 \7 f# g" Q* F! D' ~on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- A" E( B& P/ b H- [The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 M5 K4 @- X8 b3 b# q' {8 Xresale price in February is evidence that past prices' ~5 B0 y$ {# j! T3 X5 K
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ m% t7 d/ H# E) L: E8 a6 L
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
7 i% N- [4 i i2 m/ A# qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' m- `. n$ n- c& Y& G3 Q6 fAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) l; s# J; M( V* U( a: g2 {leg down over 2009.
( p k& W2 b- j5 k; s$ |/ b% N# ?: {2 f! ~' k6 `
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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