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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.& B  e' H- m3 l8 m4 z) B
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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& _. w/ S% m0 B% _; D5 O% L5 Y; uThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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$ Y; T( g2 a4 t- ]( S: Z1 x9 ZNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# w" W* Y& H5 q
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.* L9 y. ]) r% F% k. X' r& k

, Z* J+ W" m5 S7 T4 f! b( l. f. k. M"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , k5 w" C% X5 f" u: c, Z2 Q
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.) o+ e4 h1 E! H$ j+ L% o+ Z

1 N% V/ Q4 h- V5 h8 aMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。  F8 ?  P* x4 h% L3 ^
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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4 ^/ C- m% y) a[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 * \/ E  W5 `6 v' i
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

7 n# D  T" U4 a7 |' K! n很多人都回学校深造去了
1 v% P0 W  B0 z, E& @. X嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
- r. V, U- p! SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& w3 ~& i' j) t
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% V0 t; U! Y% |, S  V, @+ G, {9 a* Rare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to$ C/ B7 ]; ^4 U2 p4 f  |# o
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household0 n" M" g' A: M3 [" _" ]7 P4 {1 ?
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 }( m$ v9 Y" ]6 x! T: b+ c  E# y/ y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
% ?7 F4 g% W7 c& X* Y6 f' \the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ p3 Q1 Y  _  R* _2 Gmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 m% K$ K5 p2 k5 G: v+ zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# u; H' n2 d" ?% y; O2 N5 K
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! p% _7 C0 N9 O% Z, k2 W. b
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year3 _+ |& C) T8 S% [& B0 z# R
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 z# l! z# D& s; i6 F+ `2 Lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: }# }2 @: \: U; o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
5 @3 Z1 Q* a- h4 @; T' J30,000 new households will form in the province during
. V  e3 _+ |5 _2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 Y$ V$ X" A  G4 }" j  o3 J
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s7 P# f) W5 s5 B9 B8 S5 x
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%1 A- r+ g& S! [) C7 ^
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& y; N4 q3 P( x* ?has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new! b! i4 u" I/ p: g& w: ^
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* q5 ]7 C6 z% N, C4 O4 N( Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% @* K% ]8 C8 b! C
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 `( z5 R* f1 a7 `3 C4 M% eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is. o* O$ {% f, Q  X2 j& A# G2 M: i
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of0 a6 w) i) V! e1 _% S$ R, y! t# [+ X
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! C+ Z% v$ s4 P$ q
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 U' e+ h, [. d7 l
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
; Q9 h: D7 I. K4 Ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 ^, Q* N6 i5 m9 ]: I; B
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747, A" b' {: h! P; h: m! w0 x: J
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) X  E- Y8 q; u  lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the, N# I1 P7 m. A' n' [  k
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s" m3 }$ A, H5 M1 }0 e$ P
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 O, D. M6 b. d. z9 V7 Zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled( z% Y+ I2 l) o
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% S, t5 M4 q0 r8 B* m) B0 b$ [
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, l' Q" N1 s& m& V- e" N9 [+ q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." v2 O/ A. J" ~" F* i( J
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan, r& Q7 z) {- P) N, d2 ?
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 B# C9 Y9 z. b- x# x9 d3 |; Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
6 R0 N) Z- H; g% T& z9 wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 _9 b+ |# ^1 M1 y& W% ]5 Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% l& _& o4 X3 Z% u
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
$ p  L8 `' w0 r# wThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
. L5 z. A/ Q' n% @' d9 Vresale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 C, V/ A( d8 r3 bexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove7 S* l1 ?$ V0 k0 ~  d% Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) H5 ~: I8 s: ~/ ^- _& r& S5 ]deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( P" O6 F8 X% ?+ j' }7 j- z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: D  K9 W/ h; B) m# I( r
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: H' D- h; L$ u' C, I3 D* e, o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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( D* k9 M, D3 w[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 k5 ]+ _2 y3 W. C  A翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 }; m5 U2 C3 E" u$ r. u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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