ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.

" K# k* a- C8 T2 [5 K/ J( i+ |1 a6 sTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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; M/ ]! k" \3 E& M9 I: ^The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.

"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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1 m% f+ p" ^; C5 ^6 a* VTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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% t" f, Q- m8 V9 kTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.

$ c' Y" t, Z. J/ I0 dMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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2 a; Z2 B0 e5 g& S* S% chttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
8 B7 C4 |" T( A7 J! A0 H 再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

. Z( P8 v  v7 Y[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
- M. v9 v: d) E  N* F嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
! y9 x: C- V! ^& H, S1 ^6 CWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 @- ?. L+ C0 ]) A  t# Uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# D& l+ Z9 s) N4 E: lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
9 ]4 t. V& i$ [the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
3 a$ z2 G, A; R+ J# [. d& omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& |" {/ u. X9 B8 \) e& e' dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; k3 ~* k. a. S( q) p30,000 new households will form in the province during
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
: _7 A5 {- e1 g; xEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ I) j8 U2 [7 e/ C! Rduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% @7 [$ l: t  Y% }2 @has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
, A, ]5 B6 p4 u1 j" ]households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 F) {2 _5 Q9 }: d' g$ pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 S: S$ i# [" U3 w! l! N: w" ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
/ N1 Z. ^6 b4 O6 gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% I3 S' k) A3 s3 U/ J' [* ]. G- x1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
- u$ \) g  S& Nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
, G7 Z) H( P8 o1 P. s) i2 Rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
# X5 _( b0 C4 tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
% w9 e  G. w8 _" tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
% n4 q. D4 i$ Sresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
1 x6 ?5 l0 F( x5 kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 h" x  f; v0 @' m5 @1 N: M+ aThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 N7 |1 W: O* X$ Pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
1 e/ |# P5 m# K, c% a( Vrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) W5 v/ I4 d5 }on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* N% g4 k! Q0 i; p% AThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ U. y/ w9 n7 w$ _resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! g( r/ B0 V( w  p+ w# h. D. eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
! |2 q& r6 W1 d$ m: [7 Dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.

$ y6 I  z/ t5 M+ X/ {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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; W! M' m/ c; u& a* c( v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
. @) ~# s& y7 i( |8 V翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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$ w. b4 Z  [5 Z. K- [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing