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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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- k/ S1 y. F. p8 ZTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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; T- k7 r& M) ~: HNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. r# B; q6 I( l  z, `0 h

) E; u3 g/ m$ V" r5 J1 jTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ C4 K( y" Q7 i; [' k. C
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ' E3 h1 t- m/ Z4 H8 M# L6 P. q
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.% \" J: w: [" h, }9 p$ Z0 R
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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5 A- f$ ?$ m; S2 |( |" |  Qhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。7 e/ [/ x% z$ o: N$ f" q
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。/ f- o* ^0 l6 x# @( f6 H

  N7 Z$ q9 w9 n; K[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 / h3 h+ M4 k$ Y% y& r7 V- q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

8 {: ]2 r4 X6 M: W0 i, e2 a. V很多人都回学校深造去了" g. a& y1 x! j2 ]
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- p- j: C  b- s3 R9 A
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ a  F& k* g$ A8 D, [6 dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton! \6 e* D: J' [) \0 ?+ K) ?& H
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
' b1 i& |; H" g2 F% T6 ~2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 f# _# N3 s- I6 D% z* \  T+ n1 B9 eformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided. G3 n% {2 R& p  x' Z9 U4 Y( G
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 J# t3 ~7 f0 A+ [, L) Z$ Othe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ k, |" @% Q4 p- Y& E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ D, R; b3 W6 Q! Zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
3 j5 b3 S+ d7 k6 G! Y: D$ Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; w! L8 C6 ?: @$ X2 h' Rto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
4 s3 s* e: J+ E. K( R7 sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" a+ ^! M6 r* U& `& Z* Xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,# l2 G0 Z+ n( U- r- Z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around/ a  g$ X; \; Q& A) W2 \' h# V6 K
30,000 new households will form in the province during* C- e; g6 G! e3 {+ w0 c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- Q" y" f- ~, t3 K% u5 h& B
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 B8 i+ s7 ~! D' F# \homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
! q6 v9 [' m+ a" Qduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta) K1 c1 c1 W& k
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* ?4 Z' q- Q5 G! ]3 e; ]  d9 d& F) Yhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: X! H/ i0 X# j1 S2 eduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 D) p  s, l! tsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 M" V  x% [2 _. U, F0 t1 F7 cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
$ [! x) M" }- a8 _" h9 }$ u& u4 uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
  E, D' [1 G) r, u  Z& j' L1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 k! z* M# T* k" }. d2 `. K! l! nsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& I( U/ v" l! R2 s; m- V( |/ b7 W
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in7 q8 m: v# r+ |) Y$ R! n% v
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 `7 ?( o/ h* t; ^3 _7 O
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747) M" \; R: e8 f! j4 k
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ R3 \* x# T! R0 D! x$ H
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* `8 V  g; U3 Vresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
3 |* }8 l2 m. n( Gmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ J3 E" E& e) N6 jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
9 q. \) n3 _9 l7 B8 w5 Mrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
% r* A3 ]  Q# j6 }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- k3 M, {1 c+ T2 ^boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.3 j6 d) \* ?( m5 M9 Y! R
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; \  K/ F7 V# Y* {9 d, L
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 m3 y) o" C! _% p. z: _5 q+ f% urelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
7 U+ a' @% Y* i- Q6 x5 xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 h! G! z: }% s( H, M0 U
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
7 s. w; T. D/ A- |on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 w6 K' h% V3 s  f- T9 O8 Z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, b, V! s# I4 e1 ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices
! T& [* l1 _2 Eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove+ E  g' ]. L7 o7 d
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ B* b& P0 I& v( e+ K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 I. t) [! n$ F7 K+ ?
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; {4 s. a# e7 y" S/ O+ H* j  I4 z/ R) |leg down over 2009." D, V% t2 I3 J; x8 Q# e: M, A/ ]; m
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 Z; h- @; V! UAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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4 l) J' K6 f0 s[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. # Z, \% C, ~# [2 W7 E9 |% b
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子0 |4 T) W; c2 H: s% a# w
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments$ X6 l8 w. P. N6 V5 Z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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