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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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% `% {- j* c" q9 |) nThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . d. n" v. ?1 `2 n  Z" `

# _9 v; M9 Z! q/ l"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. - }1 C) R; j0 X! F. |) \

) w# U1 f' [0 [Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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$ M4 m/ {$ R' BTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000./ E% x& W$ }1 U

# |! s3 \5 Y( V+ j"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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0 N: A3 r- G* s2 ^  A3 N9 l0 GTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., k- C  Z. l7 _& W' \& z
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 u# Z/ Q$ V1 d 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。* z+ c8 ]" u. T! L* h  G6 G

: e( M9 C) k7 z, k# }- w[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 . a/ s7 O( z) w9 f- d
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

* _, \8 r* e% K" N6 h0 b+ R& w4 U/ J很多人都回学校深造去了. N( `$ O( h3 |6 n2 p
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
. m' U3 _6 i# i) q+ I- D: l8 T( tWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 z, T* m$ \+ O6 w
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, Z- u( C. d- k: q( `3 a
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 D( P" o8 U# [4 G; D5 l2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
5 B$ b6 z. B/ G. ~0 sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided, a+ F" n' ^, U9 G; s; Q2 a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 L2 c. i2 h0 d
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 e  z* W' H. m8 Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous/ i" ^& y" O+ M9 `5 b% F
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed/ Q* f  V1 S  e# _8 C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined  O, ], b5 A+ U: j
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
$ C3 S: j4 m& H3 ]prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ q: |# S4 O6 \2 ~3 `& v$ Pyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- l  G; N% p/ o  `) e
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 q! k" |% i. `- \% j( _& _- v$ S
30,000 new households will form in the province during! D+ w' z0 K$ {' {
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 V8 W7 R* O1 M+ @
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ H6 |! l9 `6 w. o' _3 X' Ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# E% N$ ?) d- j; t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 m  N- i0 p! f0 L( F8 @
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 V6 [2 A. H! q& ~' c" s& r7 D/ {
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( v6 A3 }1 H$ ]- W5 @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% d1 B' m6 A! u: ~# s# ]. o
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 o5 T& G! k  B, |/ M( q& H
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ w0 p7 ?: @+ o5 c- v8 G9 p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 m3 j$ L. D/ i. g% s
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; V, L* h8 C, Z# h4 Asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( a) V3 G! x$ p
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 m/ f6 q6 L! ]( @- G; Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in+ O8 c; ]9 z* f" g: i
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 [0 u4 u' l2 J7 _
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
1 |& [, c( ]. I- O3 ~8 J' Erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the- z0 S  I; ?7 R& f4 E1 {- k
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 X% Z+ a- a+ N4 l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- u4 j* A% B/ h$ e3 X
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled' \/ G& K) D* o: q6 f. R2 [
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- F8 {7 d6 Y! W6 C7 v* ]
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
) f# ?6 ^( p) b0 y% N! }6 Eboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.) h) a: _4 X  i& I
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 ~% o  K+ Q6 K9 b' j8 y! `housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 X7 |6 q; U/ `2 L2 \
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( C  l6 b7 [1 h; H
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! t6 `% ~1 \+ ?+ ]# G- r: Vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
+ w  P- p1 S4 Fon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
( J! A4 N8 z6 l9 fThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( t$ D3 b& V$ r
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' Q2 q2 o% R$ u& Q/ {
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  ]7 p1 \# Z+ e0 j0 @7 L( E
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 I: V3 F! a* I: [1 ydeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* r% @# m+ Z" C# H+ x6 z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' Z+ E, q/ g' O2 r/ \9 j* l
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
# _  A3 \' z9 T5 I: d. C翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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; y6 Y( u& X1 r7 \# ]- I; |6 |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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