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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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5 w6 ~+ q2 s) kTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. $ R) k3 M$ z$ G+ j
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.# s  R. n& B8 r0 z) z1 T! v

" \1 L* J' }- _! z, [TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.+ y/ e5 F/ a" v

9 f* ~" }6 ?" @; k+ Y"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 1 u: |# W/ [: `' s8 A; u4 n
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 m4 P9 a+ L) Q
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,1 E& o: b5 a; K% O% A6 x

$ I! v. d0 ^/ u+ S6 c[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
: j0 n. Q- ~4 U  T2 x/ X 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; g, |, d5 t$ M$ n/ d

: N0 i; G+ m/ T: ^[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ; d5 K6 O1 F# y, }5 T2 F
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
: q* m+ U& [% |( I2 Q1 ]- r
很多人都回学校深造去了
3 n7 m+ Q$ m8 P% f* |. t嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
; [9 Z# {* u+ ]3 \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- h$ X5 `$ Z4 R0 i
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* h8 k& N! O- V' F! x, g
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* x# n% q4 D+ V% t9 j; _7 w5 P& m
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- U# l: C: X$ r) [
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( ]( J1 Z% |" ^0 p  q* z
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( L; M0 D  I6 o7 _# X, Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 x  B' W0 v7 G. n0 J: b& tmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& o0 i3 A' o) P. I: \" Opace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed& F. b: O* O6 C$ i
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 ~) i1 n$ D7 J4 R
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 E' G9 R, Y+ `* p$ L
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
/ i# U8 C2 F1 o0 G; Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 q4 u; n1 u, B3 t
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
. }& m' @" s: S8 Z6 J: o30,000 new households will form in the province during; b& h8 n+ q- T  }! f" `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., }" w( J) t! E; l- k6 o1 D
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
! m" k$ B! r; ?! G' h7 ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
9 K9 {! ^* a9 U2 U0 \during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ y' _9 A5 \$ l! O0 w3 ^- R
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: r5 D% O* P' Q4 O' k: ihouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
4 g0 N) T8 T9 A3 i) E3 F: S# Fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging, j; `  [( E3 [' g8 D
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories8 p$ b: p6 T+ q4 k. p
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
" s8 e. S) }9 {6 _8 ~excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 j$ a6 \% R: A& k& o0 z% [
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
: U4 A9 K' v. @$ |" tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 Y8 Q; I9 f1 q* D3 p! w
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in$ Y6 r, Z* B& c5 s/ B
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 i7 C7 ?( X! r1 l4 o- ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( e3 U8 @1 b! f, h
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! @+ ^' L9 M) T. _. W7 Lrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. m! c, A. m* s; e5 f2 j7 [resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s9 b# g( y2 o/ ^" B, P8 x" T; Y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 u" J- x7 D7 y. u6 h, tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* F4 u* r: ?8 _2 B5 J- Z; brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( b$ P" X- y. |6 f! A/ u* l9 ~The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 ?/ @4 Z$ Y/ ^* z6 {1 U* r
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 f2 F4 f. a* L& c6 S# k& y- d0 lAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan  Z, ~" i. M  |& |: q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced  Y# }$ B/ L- G3 F% h9 R
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale9 H4 t. M. X5 v2 g
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even) I7 }' }! f( c" M, V1 x
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; n$ @- `% p- z% C
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 P  E6 _! u. c: @5 `' C
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average" ?( `! i; \; t& j1 {
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
, ^% b+ @  |  S7 Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove; }. j" \( {& G
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 P$ T/ J8 l' [9 ?  r* _+ c) ^* P" ndeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 G& W* d1 w  K& e' A) X1 u9 v1 v$ `
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) }8 e3 _) M3 h8 j8 d3 X
leg down over 2009.
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& f1 g5 L, j9 u. q1 ^/ p- L[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' E: O6 H! a5 R2 G9 B1 N% f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
5 y4 s1 h, `% g8 }6 @翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子7 \! f7 |" N' ?3 h7 P, |

/ P9 b$ i3 _7 M; S1 d# C( n( `http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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