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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
. H: `4 p! c4 S( Z, e! wWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( f2 m: m. d+ [! Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
4 ^: i( z" S- I- }0 q6 Eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
& a; w$ Z! L, |" a9 C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* F' k0 a; i+ \
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided9 U" L3 O. z0 C2 M6 i) R( h
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
# m0 W9 u$ W S" Y5 M6 gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and$ b- J2 L' O1 ~6 t" J' {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous# i9 n4 i% _3 c M$ p: h' h j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
( m7 d, B C* }" B' Z# c1 K& u- qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# Y, r8 z) D- i* [- V
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year$ A! R9 x0 d- e+ t
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 f9 m5 t1 ]9 G( O5 [2 f+ G- ^year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 P1 Z# h$ I: l: n1 }& N
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
1 s" d- X( I3 B, m+ p30,000 new households will form in the province during4 n. ` x- W @8 a
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
?8 l6 G P# d) j9 nEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) Y2 p- k/ l R$ thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 s* Q, q! z! G0 Y* C0 u0 bduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& @- k, K2 `8 g I# F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) x( F: K3 b' ]) Q, a
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals* ?/ z K8 m* ]8 w( c
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging8 p, N0 Y* Q8 j" K* @
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. S& q! {1 Z7 W
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
3 ^$ U3 l: ]4 ?' \, @; T. _excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 C* z) `! ~- r+ f- V1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
7 m. f1 ~! i7 F3 l. F) Ysales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 @! O7 |+ |5 rbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! {) k N& H+ r7 Y7 c) m' W
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 ]+ g2 s1 O2 m
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ a& e3 x! Y8 h: L" B5 T8 Q
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 i, M: O4 e$ ]1 ~) f9 E ] S( Urecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# K ~9 s1 }& v
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; R7 R5 H5 N! `& _
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& A! U' y9 S& q; A3 Q$ G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled& T3 M1 a7 F4 v
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
7 q" u/ s) `' g6 k# y( ]7 y3 ?The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s4 k0 h/ e& V0 F$ F) v$ D
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! e1 c* D5 Z7 k, z4 m- L0 N
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan3 L' U5 u3 Z# K; F3 W2 B
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced8 N. g! o' I/ q- _' [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
3 {9 _: |1 I" c: B! Qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! W1 m! {7 o4 ?though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners/ D0 _! i5 m: T* N- f! k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
. ]7 a0 i+ v% [3 v6 k, D' m2 a* ~7 MThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 z- _( U. m/ ^. f! sresale price in February is evidence that past prices. I3 C @' x$ p$ }$ F- ~
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 Q3 v" M$ ?. ?8 F* l5 B) B, f% P/ }homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' B k3 L/ E4 K" d- X3 M- \, jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
. x" V. [( d4 P0 PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%# B- D8 l9 O2 A- ?# Y: c* V
leg down over 2009.
8 `# T: _5 Q& s! K8 Y3 j& J0 [8 B! L! z9 o9 `: X% A
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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