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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. & h, y$ h) C- F/ N
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.+ l$ q( e7 I7 K3 j* M8 I( t- L0 _% z. |

5 I+ p& S( p5 m% @TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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# e* L- W7 g% m+ o3 M3 l) M6 T+ BTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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" i: c; B3 t' FMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 1 [6 S, P5 F$ r7 j- F

; t& @/ ~2 o9 D8 ihttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。: r  t/ |7 U' D+ ^3 Z$ z& B) B
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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, T/ e: I+ M! S' ?# ^[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 ^" p$ v3 K  H: r7 J; v, p, X* k* F
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了4 T6 q) ~) S4 p; j' q. X
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta/ N- _: q, K" h7 H& }7 f5 X2 P8 C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
) }* _$ o( I3 i- M: {boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* ]3 M& [1 ^+ u1 [
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to& L* y8 Y) A/ b, u0 ]+ c( X' x: M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ p' w1 [. j( t/ k9 r" U+ R, e
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 O& |( n6 ]& J3 ?
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- X% r" ?/ g# U4 I) ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! L6 K0 W! X! V) E" ~  Zmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ W. C; G  l. ]( a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 K1 ?1 t, x$ X9 b. l" ^( I& [precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
* c6 y+ F3 w) G, u; dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 W( e/ ^. K0 o2 Sprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this: u* N/ Y- n2 n! @! ~2 d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms," b* }$ \( B' k' ]
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' t: w  {/ ]& A( j; {7 m8 z+ ]7 u
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 j& D1 F+ X6 l  f* t; s
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 ^* n( ^0 z/ Y8 X' ?$ REven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 W- U4 H* z& ]) A8 a, X' U- L% Fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%' B" N  v3 v/ S3 A$ h, a+ ^
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 k8 O* ]/ {% o7 N8 ~# G1 z& W
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 [( M3 e* j; c. ~  ^7 R0 x  F: dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 J0 Z8 I# N$ W3 L4 Kduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: Y% R) K( r6 P- X2 Y$ p1 s
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories) E8 ^- F& `. o' E1 `- L! ?% S
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 v5 z# u& N2 V* |- z9 v  v/ Bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" }/ Y5 }4 X+ `2 N- W
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
9 S) o3 e( ]) g$ Z0 s: \, `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& U1 \- m9 s7 J# ?& B& e9 V
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in2 J2 A/ F& B' g$ d' L" S* e! I
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& X6 z) a" S' tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ a) c% F7 f- t- e; s$ {  s1 g) Munsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest9 U7 x9 R' Y( Q2 v) _# Q" G) b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 \7 W$ ~  ]' presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 `/ y4 M. N; q  g! q+ Z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: I4 `. f; o* _( o; p
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' g$ L' O& s! }  ~. g/ C3 wrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 W; w6 y4 [5 ~8 ^
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
: r5 e( j: \$ }/ L& n' [boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., a* f- g) c8 @3 k5 O" d/ L
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan5 w2 v0 p1 e5 W9 U3 q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ S2 l4 H$ h6 y: v1 b
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 Z2 E$ o+ b" z# {  i' ^" v( Hprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 W2 ~, u+ M: |, hthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
" \$ \" x; L& h2 U2 gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.6 ]+ f6 A) t# W+ z9 n8 `6 R$ I
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
- p5 ?1 \$ ?* C. I3 h/ Nresale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 }. T1 r! w% d( E) Pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 Q- T# V0 c! d! f5 q' P/ khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& p/ {- J% i- w; P# W6 s
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* ^8 ^0 q( {  m& |8 h% V: aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ a5 p! E1 x# d% n) gleg down over 2009.8 n9 k3 m' X) g" x/ {; t; Q
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. C2 |% R0 s+ E, D# F2 n5 }& t
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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! o9 L- f$ w, I! q; K7 t, ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.   C* {1 K. R! i
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子* v8 ~: P) T' [' T4 _0 s" D

. P# B1 T9 M( v1 E: ]http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: K* q" h  B+ u) ~* t

# a9 [0 V( }0 ?. L! n' e8 z% d  ][ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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