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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.1 V: Z/ }8 ]! T* O! z2 e
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ' x  u! h8 ~1 o" i1 ^
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 x6 S5 c9 c6 _9 @. {4 C; Q
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ! v/ O: c$ m1 E! E$ M6 v5 H
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.! v! j9 M+ r$ A$ V# X# U5 m- }
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.# d+ E6 A( O2 }; z* H+ s

: `. C, y; T& |Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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  g& M$ ]7 M& E+ a+ L7 U$ Shttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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8 B9 P9 V2 }2 dTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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' J1 \; m' I( z1 Y# b1 O$ t5 b[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
4 t$ r3 c  x  u" T2 ? 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。0 x; v! `7 V( \+ z: g& I0 m
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 + E0 q: \4 F  q% N8 _
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
+ ?! ]# u3 `* H2 `3 ^2 Q嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
, w: c8 V1 E8 F5 g1 _0 J+ [9 \* Q0 _* ^Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 ]1 Q4 l  C! }+ b$ e" zboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ D0 ^/ O( i3 k0 u) {5 ^$ Jare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to! V9 H# f- H/ r/ ^6 f7 f& p7 j& x6 @
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- h" R) M/ @( t' D0 N5 wformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* X4 \1 P9 E; F  _- u0 F
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. V/ R" j) h; R) j7 \0 |
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! c, k( e6 q; @: e
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
6 O8 @# n, }% E* t% k9 x  H7 Hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' c  a# `+ q$ t: D! Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) }+ j* D9 U. y4 K7 u/ ~to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 Z% h4 L! C5 p0 p+ |1 R# v% f  B
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
7 s! g3 l& T( x$ }: uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; f, t- q5 `* B" a- I1 a1 w
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 l6 o6 {% {! t) V6 S! W
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& _9 C  y' ^- I6 z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 y& z4 D# o$ L$ |# s% ?, A
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s: s& j0 _' V; n  _$ o2 P1 ~0 {
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( w7 }: n. w" C3 a2 T
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 b+ o) d: r9 p  L4 f
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new# u! W4 g8 I) P: d8 L0 [2 b
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals! x; c" i2 _0 {
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 d9 _" u/ w8 O: N; Ysales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; f6 [  X0 w! [0 ]: B- C  b( ]
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 Y+ O! N; M" k1 X* }. O% ?7 bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: h* }+ x2 i7 k; Q4 @: `$ f
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
+ ~& M) l% ~* ^2 C( z3 Dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 o& y7 f0 G+ |- K: X1 d
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
) q2 Z& h- `. }2 X+ B, k( Ptwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
( O1 r. b* I* B  N' c3 K' d8 Runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7476 t2 J$ W; E) N& V
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ W' i8 H7 Q  k( ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
! @1 `' ~; N7 k% W2 B. Z- Iresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" ^2 o! V) W; I" N  ?+ Hmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 h, {7 @9 W7 r0 _  F$ f) J0 x
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled- v9 `6 S2 d; b" R1 C
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 I( I. f( r: s; R% x4 h- r  K% C1 D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s- z' O: E  K& C+ G; w
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ q" Q7 v- @' Y8 GAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
6 S2 \( i* }, _1 R4 j; ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ e! N3 Y' Y. S* K+ C% D* p* I# h
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) b2 R3 H0 A- A6 w9 E- e& Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- o9 {% u( {' _' v" w* W" d+ B4 @though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 D  t) }& c8 F9 A& ^- `( ~
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable./ k$ N% d: P; w1 o, w! i  o
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
9 o: T$ Z% |6 }( j( ^( T1 O9 P: nresale price in February is evidence that past prices) Y" q" l) h# `: @6 y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" W8 U' m/ S. j2 {/ I' U6 R5 e2 e
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 P1 F  B) J8 qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
1 Q3 |' X% ^/ j; v6 n% y( q) DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( _0 u# u) d" ]2 _) e) G+ H# w; vleg down over 2009.& ]2 s& O8 J+ g0 n: M0 s  e

, j7 ~1 T/ R5 A' M: Q8 @6 Z( t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; O, F; Q* P& i3 {) YAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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* t  Z" T# [' d; m- R6 |7 J[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
1 ~5 U  m0 \3 ?$ Y5 J翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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. u; z, D7 Z8 i6 v* b# b% Lhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments3 T4 i2 d& f  k; b* O

% L: I  J, J0 }- _[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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