 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
0 U- P# j! {& j' F1 WWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
. {4 y$ d% q3 N) O7 x4 Xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' Y4 h# P+ v# t
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
0 x: D+ R5 m6 H2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
0 q- [% q) }6 c$ Nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
! f: y( O" F3 r5 ^) P6 O8 @7 Tfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( U, h7 N1 g$ g
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 m! \) s) C# f* _* D" P% Z! Wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous) r% V8 f. ]0 y0 `- P7 B
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
5 s" ?6 R) D$ }, i$ xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined! J8 Y8 N; L A: t
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
% h, o/ T5 r) _5 Aprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; E& I+ ~" y4 B8 S# b- w, U ~6 W
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,9 G3 ?& D6 b" M/ z4 A! \7 a$ Y
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around d0 c# y# s' a9 W: @5 W( i# N5 h
30,000 new households will form in the province during
! }9 z' h; i/ F8 h: F; S% \0 {" f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# _$ A% F: M& ^& s: g( V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ J& V3 i7 R/ u5 \) Phomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%- N1 R: ]* e' V# _' P
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
5 T4 J g7 U7 u9 i1 Rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new K3 N5 I; G0 H4 T7 r1 v [. P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
9 O; b a- q6 ^! Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
0 z) p. W* x0 i5 g$ n7 i# ]sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: |# }. u! Y9 M& n
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* X$ w+ W! g9 X s
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 l4 z! U2 V* D5 W* X) |6 n8 d7 g
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ X! t# v2 b7 X; ]7 Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
+ y# y# t. v) i+ i8 vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in5 |- h# i, M9 r2 [
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 y' v( n. E) X* munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
& C4 B+ t4 t8 j* S6 F4 f3 Z3 Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 O. _! i+ y4 z8 ]7 Irecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the& z" h7 H( f) L: f4 P: C
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 x& c( L7 X# b/ P! P' W- U a! p) Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% p; u0 \0 p7 q, Q+ h: k& }: ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
' \1 {2 s0 S4 |( E& Frapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.! I5 D2 S5 C; @2 @( X Z% T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ y( @3 e3 I6 u5 ]boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- C3 y& W* H9 I4 b
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan8 V- I1 l: m' F7 y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced O, R7 F7 Q$ R
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 J, B+ X3 q0 U& D' v# S& ]
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even H5 C; K- F( d$ B. d9 S( ?6 t
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) u5 ?7 w" b0 X9 k8 F9 Y. x0 c: Gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 E) Q0 u1 `- B0 k" vThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 _, ~ }4 j& p2 o, hresale price in February is evidence that past prices
( A0 Q& u) ?" b1 a9 Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) k) H2 @, a# Lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’7 U" Q, ?: i5 p& E. D+ D
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 `0 j& l+ Z+ Y y8 c2 ^# g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 ]# k6 u1 L) r2 A2 M
leg down over 2009.
4 V) i2 c8 b) x9 g8 I/ t( [- O3 }2 n* @$ ~
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|