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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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) h; J) T8 V7 N/ B& ^& O( `TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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) W- u) E3 l$ ?The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % |- d' ~9 T) ?6 ?! G9 A
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.5 O7 q2 i- P& A$ ?

6 i- K4 w  H  e& P: I& eTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.0 @+ l3 }3 k9 Z9 D7 N
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. ' A: B6 X; a  `" ^6 {

# m- u# {; K9 m# oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,* p* \$ [8 u; ^" f" e1 d
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
" K5 S5 J0 w) `4 ` 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。6 n8 v; q# R/ @8 r6 ?
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
, B; f, D7 p  |, M% C1 G跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

' o3 T0 A0 J" o6 T* @, O很多人都回学校深造去了
0 K; Y( |7 I. g: Q6 M5 G! f嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
2 O9 H  G' L- NWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 z  s4 g* f( b9 e" m# o9 o. u" W; e: I
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 u$ D* s- U( yare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 y0 B: c7 u& R" v$ p2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household1 X+ Q% [( m% k+ @3 ^/ T
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided" [# @) |6 Y7 S: C9 a3 s/ s
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,( a) D, n+ a0 i2 }& h! i8 ?3 z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# B- L% I5 G( H) c0 b' Mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% Y6 U0 f; H$ k+ f$ U/ T8 Upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed! R! v) {  b6 q
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
! B* _( z- P8 k! ~. y5 _to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) D9 ^& b  U; K9 f1 q
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- P5 D3 Q! i; w0 r
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- `0 B; r+ M5 U, `. A
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; a/ l7 [& x7 ^2 T) |$ X5 g30,000 new households will form in the province during
& F  X; \6 r6 b( H8 c4 }9 Y- G2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- N& ]# ^( a9 x. Y0 ?9 |Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s' ~1 X2 B5 i7 l6 |4 s+ {7 f# k1 [
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
' H; u( Y% e4 k, |5 Vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  R1 I% }, m  c: ~3 M- ^/ |4 B' q
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) H' R$ D  E- S) X
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 L0 ?9 j$ ^0 f) ^during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# H) R5 ]2 ?% o8 Usales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
  s; W* W8 R  Y) Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: w# f4 @3 t0 N4 U' a8 [: M
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 x8 s. ^3 J3 \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. p$ U1 V4 K, ^. `. ]+ N! G
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive+ \( {8 i" _/ B. a$ M+ t% Y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
& t) g+ \. z4 A. S: Q* Xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ G" V6 F5 f- G$ y3 Z! runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* R- v6 t9 M( q5 @/ L& _$ P
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 K$ @4 V3 O1 r/ {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: _$ A5 r0 ]0 n* h
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& _! Z% g. r- x2 V$ ^major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ a9 n; D+ E- D7 i
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
  v2 E9 t2 r/ qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% g6 F7 @7 g! _+ G' Y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, N' [. z! w9 Pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
; w- X: t# `; G$ L( s! W& ]/ IAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan0 W  ~9 ?3 C4 A* L' V' n( F
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& e7 A7 S6 }' F4 t+ k& q5 J0 trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" \; A6 H) g! ^" y: M8 lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; x. Q8 x) b1 h" `8 E8 `though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* D& V9 D. F& F* m4 ?) r, Y
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
3 R2 L7 \9 n9 T$ K& NThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& l2 H. r- B. I* Z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 I' Y8 z, S. v6 Nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& z* e" ]' k4 p4 |) J7 thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 a0 C, T  O" T
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& J2 Q4 Q, n& m( }4 G( k3 f$ _! l. Y( wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
- d: Y# e' q- ~2 @; fleg down over 2009.3 `, ]/ N: I" M: h$ s' v

- e- [& R( `( k0 z% w4 V$ D[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* K4 }; a, `" }/ QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
8 w, D" @1 m0 U, J& P0 A翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: v8 P) n( Y, h+ o* M% ?
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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