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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.& o; U9 n6 l& n  t4 @& S

0 ~: p1 e8 o9 H2 p5 S  z: BTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. * q( g' I" |7 Y$ h" x0 b) z
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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# X+ g8 F/ m4 V0 a4 Q3 O% eTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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0 a: M! U( s) U8 i"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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7 E' U8 A  V& o* t: ~' sTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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. l+ \4 Z: M/ P; [  p2 qMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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; t* V7 b4 ]9 W6 V6 z; ?http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,0 A& C) s1 U* Y# q0 x  ]
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。- Y: K3 E9 C6 T# z$ a) t( [
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 , g, K- p* S7 g; r) i# T# \
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了' p6 }7 [8 x8 d+ q
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
: B4 m) s0 W+ e' W6 d( U5 Q  _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 f( h3 h% T0 K! Q7 F: T
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton# `/ x  Z2 T9 B; K
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to7 l. W- j6 m+ M
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. W1 [: p+ @( Q$ V  D( c$ S* e8 t% H& H
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
( y% w+ r& K7 C2 [+ i: pfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,8 h- _9 A/ ]; U+ `% c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ C/ p6 ^) \* {# X* Y' ]6 N$ kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! x% W; z# m2 ?1 \pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed& A% z' ]+ Q& I) A' \% t, x
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
) K+ I8 N* h8 K; S9 Hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" Q5 h( P& i$ Q( b
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
; l9 o- d, W; s; jyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* r0 h( x# N7 v* _homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
7 y0 o; T7 d, C# m, w; N) f* I5 A30,000 new households will form in the province during/ M, m+ h! `: o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 u1 \3 W# Z/ ~6 N/ S# t; N5 v, c6 sEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
1 e; X( @' S, Xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
* q, E$ u, |; g# yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, S% y5 T; K2 }( p# p7 y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& J( ]; E8 G* a( p. G! x
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ h# m+ t( L9 F8 P7 Fduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging" A8 a- [0 |3 U$ z
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' z9 b5 p6 W8 \! M
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is9 N* b* i: R# B# Q) l
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- j, K# ^/ J& j  T4 S
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' D; t& e3 ~3 e+ Hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! Y1 F9 P9 C6 ~buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) Q, t' ^: C$ f! t; j. z5 I
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% |$ A( K% D: o# J" ^( ?. k3 J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 l% A+ P" z6 f2 b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
9 T. v) z; ^7 E' e) g& z! qrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the* G9 V% I, J. M6 l5 Y) ]; n
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; c& r0 l9 v0 ^- Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
$ I3 W2 W, I& r- zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 x( w$ h6 B/ h' _% e, C$ k! K; u
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ I# f4 Q* u' ]The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ @6 G2 ^( `  o% c( n) L
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic./ m; C% ~( |4 T0 h- k! G
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! H7 z) g- f' k) O8 j/ Bhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
# K7 d6 L. {: |relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale2 G+ y* h+ S2 ^; y
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
0 L! D( P& d/ q) |8 v4 \though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& V) N( ^# ?3 kon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 o+ G+ Q+ q# h1 `The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average. {3 `! c. M+ _0 v, \* C
resale price in February is evidence that past prices$ }0 M5 Z7 w& Z: t
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 P* s% A7 u! {homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& M' [6 O1 ~7 p8 A; cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,6 }5 K8 l& o& u8 B4 z9 |
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: S( q: K/ h; |6 J
leg down over 2009.
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- S+ p( x- |1 I, f  Q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
  @! B; i7 t  r, qAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 b. N' Y5 i+ E' A) b
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子8 r$ }: O8 |! e$ O' o/ I" w

: Q" I) p9 b7 a! lhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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