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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
( F) ]8 H3 Y6 T, W0 u# C$ s# DWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ y; i$ C9 V. n* {3 L4 K ]boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ d& r* w7 [3 c+ C k% d
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
# [6 M7 j$ L6 G: o5 b" I9 \2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
! x2 M6 P1 p4 i+ ^formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; ~0 H3 I8 Y, j6 l z1 s
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,- c$ i0 @8 m: b* P
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 T k$ O, j+ X# l5 B( l
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous% i+ H' D$ d( T5 a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; s# W& X3 U* X! O' [
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
' C3 S8 [ w9 L5 ^0 L d' i2 Nto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year ]7 m: U6 g+ F* W1 N+ G
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
0 ?. k/ O9 v/ y5 Qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- `, z/ ?# c- U. l: R2 }
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
' e5 X$ M) Q) l5 l2 F30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 q3 P# J) f$ c5 H2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# M6 ^, K. t' H* o: |; iEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 f* \6 ]- ?7 P6 F9 a( Ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# b% H# ?) W, `9 [1 }1 ~
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta# f! f8 o/ T4 F; S) Z
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- n$ h B/ L4 ?/ P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 R& q Z: e: y, @% E) G$ v: n
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
( N! _2 C) X- ?7 j( |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
) D) P& I4 k: hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
5 K K1 h; `5 B$ }6 s! sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of8 Q% L* a) H! t K$ G' P/ Y
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
( Y9 ]% y6 Q2 R% K6 D3 m" H% asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ o }+ e' b. ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in s! a( u2 j6 o- f. _
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
+ [& t( n" X2 Q0 C4 aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 P v8 l' i& C( `2 c4 w8 q9 Junsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
% L3 M( C6 P) k5 b+ V9 B" Nrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# F/ a% z a) |
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
+ m; o5 h3 M& d- z2 n' t3 ^! h2 Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
9 l9 t$ L# r) t1 H- O% X& W3 jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled! b- Y! F u; J4 Q% |$ ~5 P( ^+ x" t: ]
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ h/ K% N3 I8 ~1 k; q
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
}* i5 p, S- Q# V) _! L& A% zboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ c7 U) d P7 T/ L+ K7 @- _Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
- ^1 ?- P! i/ f5 ?) c/ Uhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ K- H4 i5 @1 F O" o* Y
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- A D2 R+ C) j# p2 i4 E8 o, L
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 k6 ?5 u. S* Lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( A: a e* T. E a: q) ]on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.8 u( @8 c; O& C7 @2 v4 k
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 l m7 _+ T% Q; G* ?
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
) y( i. `* x! Z" w ^: _exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
, @# h' P& K$ r* D6 Lhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 I( k: z1 N/ B+ R
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% i) } Q* Q ~- r( fAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! M/ D0 e# h, p8 Y6 c" Q* @leg down over 2009.
7 D2 h4 c& y3 k# `! n
& B5 z& O4 Y$ @, W. @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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