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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- E( x: z/ m" ]7 ^2 r- n. P d
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
0 D2 d9 F- ~5 r3 Aboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
* h9 q' k0 T Qare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to1 ~" ]3 J2 ]) Z! g
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; ]4 p; I1 T c/ o
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# `+ I5 n* I- j8 Efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 @" |* l3 j5 [$ y
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: w/ k5 X2 x! c( L/ H3 kmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous; M, ]! G+ n$ R, g" H6 R$ p
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed. f' v5 r" c" O2 T6 }) c
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 I c# E$ S3 |% h8 d2 g( @, u
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year; Z) O' J2 n# F! @
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 {, ~( N( ^5 A- V' lyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 I( w; E4 M6 l' B rhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! e7 |+ ]- W# t30,000 new households will form in the province during
, a, O8 e( U$ B1 \( H2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- N2 N% e3 b/ z$ _0 @ v7 k
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 y3 ?. f. c' C1 O$ Y: shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: z- ^* I' j5 ]2 y& Y ?; `, ^$ ]
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, t! B0 X, t; a+ qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ k/ e, z4 Q2 y T( ~. ]5 chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals M: ~) l( X; x
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging5 J; P& _) y$ @! B2 O% F0 _) P
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 k7 X8 y) X- {0 g: a# Pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
- C* U, t* ]. W* z3 a9 }6 ~0 H5 Xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
7 f) Z6 `, A* U2 M% Z0 G1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a1 {) U7 B8 Z- u# d6 W' H
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' {5 U5 R9 ?( |; ~2 p0 b" Y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; e- d' m" ^- I7 ^2 k7 w2 Z
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in9 A8 i, [% f# f$ W5 D6 p5 h
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: i( r/ a8 f/ c ^$ K- z _, q& P$ aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" f# D- _1 Q+ Arecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: M8 m/ C+ ]- K1 q
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
% J3 W1 U; v {8 |% m% Ymajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories4 `* L g5 B& q" y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
& i( \% `- s- m4 E6 p' Rrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 r& ^. i8 x5 d0 x R
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% G) l8 T @) O% k3 U5 y2 Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
% X& L4 V5 P$ }) D3 l8 dAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
' }0 W S( Z1 g, x9 ~$ C( ?7 vhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
( j A+ C, F" E, {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 K! c7 r- G% z& w: `prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 c$ f7 J' X/ A; s& A, Kthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 j, i2 P: e" Xon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; j# d9 [6 P0 C' \1 B) @: }The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average# c6 ]1 q& R: |" ?/ I. X- f8 ]" R3 `
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 R$ o) L7 d. ^exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
0 g4 {2 R' q/ L" u$ E7 Dhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 a- \ X5 O+ _% S! S) F4 \deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; v" a6 |+ S" QAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 Y8 n9 |7 X& u$ a& d: s* H" y+ B0 aleg down over 2009.
f* ^3 s, {) r* C5 Z, }6 z
& l8 q2 }* S0 _* A$ F3 }6 I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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