埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1915|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
( u, M8 Q. k7 F; z2 H% [$ v7 Q" o, J% R0 k7 l+ ?: z/ q! Y
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
5 K; y( L, W# H& F6 u0 v) m' O# q- _
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 7 ]4 z" t- l& e+ ?( B* g
% D! y: c7 o" P& d9 @7 G
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
' o5 _( C( \& i# j- n2 [) t* G6 W9 f- N& z/ _+ L. A
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.. Y' w" T) u0 k3 U  g
+ @: f, V8 G: k. r: P
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
3 B4 D& ]5 i% t% b2 T
$ u+ g5 K9 r/ Y& J( _+ l1 b"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 9 b' c; R& ]) ~

2 `) C4 G' ~" ?- a  wTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.3 M4 d, n& J$ v# i

/ Q2 e7 S+ n7 B% Q7 dMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. + J/ R2 ]: U& T8 O1 S, i3 e& s0 [
6 F3 x. D  a( W. w! A( \2 Z+ s, h
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
3 g+ L  ^3 `! ^" T# H9 \
. n' z; ?7 h! D7 d" g2 q# V
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,. O* o% s% I# P+ E, L' H
6 Y: v  y7 Q( E' {
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。; l5 i* P/ K0 Z
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
3 J0 _) e. Q% h( u
6 C% K/ ]5 g% D  D7 s2 z8 x[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 4 T" F) s0 [  x6 L' m
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
* K: u; `2 t& c: c" ~2 \
很多人都回学校深造去了1 {, a( v  b/ p
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 |6 n* h3 t( K; B  N/ W& [Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its3 h0 |6 r, e2 L) O, ~9 ~
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton" P, K6 l: W# F/ @$ Y3 H, R( Y  Q  }) l
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to  u8 [8 k, Y. Z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
) ~$ }6 z$ w: E, D" Iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 W; j, R4 |# s3 z  R; N) W5 N
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,2 a' `& l9 N8 [: X9 c+ n& F
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: [3 ]& ?8 t* i2 J1 K4 n
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
( Z8 u7 o5 S+ }4 h1 W! N) fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; L: d/ b. Z2 G1 O: kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
  ]  N4 d& X; s+ g( Mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year, U- G$ q% Q" r! W4 J5 M0 O( }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; {* j7 \9 _& [1 G' q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- z% e. x) T8 R; P3 ~' K
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  |5 I* s" V$ R! J( H& n2 E$ f30,000 new households will form in the province during
) G# N7 P' g" _9 ~: q) k! ~2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 n# Y6 m- |$ \/ K" M, x' ?. t
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s; f. X# N* Q+ H
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, J# X6 A. K5 _: j7 ?% {! G, K5 cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
& u- d5 y, S8 F6 t; Phas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new1 ^7 w! ^/ Y' F3 G! i
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" I6 x* X2 ?( c, h0 O% t8 F% Oduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
; S5 f, S2 ]' ^0 l9 `$ v/ a; X2 l% ~sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
7 n( N& T; A% V  p9 m, o- K" Q1 c$ }1 s5 w, Wclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 Z, c5 d0 x; x0 I1 S  y" W* E  ^excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, g% p0 D6 |6 {. ^' x1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. i! |: @* k. e  \( bsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) Q. T) K: L+ O0 y: ?
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 {. ^' n: H5 P2 ?8 ~
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 }$ x) x3 P  c! P9 ]- R8 @5 r6 P
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& x/ a* d# b2 s) m1 j5 N
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' h: w. }7 W0 ~2 erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- [& c2 {% X, d' g9 n) Gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 l9 t7 \% f  U& g
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories5 {4 \2 W! O% Q( j. G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 u% P# y# \+ p% Q: c% T# grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.9 J- {# _! x7 J2 Q7 \/ e
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 ~2 S! e/ ?* u* R- H* v8 _. Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* [# K: S0 P1 X, H; t0 Y1 Z) tAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan/ U1 c' {5 f" Y7 H; v! X0 S+ Q
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
2 _& P( d9 U3 l' B# nrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# E( `1 b$ c3 X3 h8 Lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even% U, \( w, C" c0 s. q; s
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 t1 o9 s" U+ Pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
9 o( t- c. \, R/ y" BThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
0 d' L/ o9 W$ Y! i* ]$ ]9 zresale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 F  l9 y( D- I/ N( e" e! Kexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 L" j/ r4 \% _2 z: k9 t
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' j9 F# S* D$ U2 ?deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% z: F- c3 R  A* g$ Y" E0 O
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
8 w3 y% D$ T7 H3 i5 y7 ~leg down over 2009.: H6 B' q& H; y8 P
7 d- w+ w$ U) t; |
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& L, g4 S. R7 F6 e" t1 v- T. H. X! BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

& T6 c1 z8 e2 X# s+ z+ t2 q5 @" k8 W' s" t
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% O6 e: V! N4 n8 D翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
# N3 W( h' z7 i, y
, C+ q3 g+ I) o" `2 C; Zhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
: W9 X1 @6 E+ G# R/ ?* B" Z) F6 [7 l+ E2 z. x. q
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-2-1 23:53 , Processed in 0.109313 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表