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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. $ Z+ z& S: ]8 u  C2 `  |
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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" }* z. v9 ?6 A- K% K- q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 8 j$ L- r5 [6 x, n5 u+ ~7 Y. [

9 h/ `' Z3 w0 i  w, e) N% fNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.- b$ h. h8 \/ U) q5 Y

& `9 E1 R3 y0 p: z; _8 C4 uTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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! ]1 \2 A) P# B"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. & M( D" {4 \0 o/ ~7 |1 v

6 h! i1 o% l2 K' thttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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$ k3 o2 n/ s- E% oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,: B8 G: i8 J8 t8 H: M( [7 l

  y& T* V2 L3 H3 y" B% Z; K[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
7 _$ N" l7 z! J* _2 ?  k- [9 F6 ~ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 k6 J: j3 }; [* q' j7 o" [3 u
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

3 z1 w& A. V" h; Y$ C很多人都回学校深造去了
1 Q  ?" r3 d4 U3 j! e6 n; n嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 k- h6 U; g! ?& h* }6 R
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
9 C: k9 m$ O9 {- n* n$ s. c5 V" qboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
% `- @! d1 w" Aare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: U! C- f) @) H' P2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( U2 O" m: S! Z. A  h
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 M! e3 m, |3 |. T4 y3 ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,0 @7 W9 ^& t& @/ ^( e
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
2 g4 i/ N# x1 Smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% e5 T1 S" W% z+ W( n9 Dpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( F* U# F1 f) B8 A7 Z: X; t1 o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined" G  m9 B6 }0 w) f+ P/ k( K
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year! l$ U5 y0 h- _+ }% a/ f/ R
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 b! W% b; |! M3 g1 Yyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* g6 ?0 x6 p/ R" ~5 g
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! K  L( C2 U  l
30,000 new households will form in the province during7 q: W' ?  n/ m* Y7 ]5 @' E7 Y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
$ e9 s5 h0 ^4 K! I( [  r' n9 VEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* r0 O+ X' T2 M/ q: ~; I
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 K( K% J5 d; |( t( n3 t. Kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ l- `) y- s1 y& W% l9 _& g9 k: N, P
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 r) x3 p5 n5 xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) S6 s6 |  l% R3 y' k1 y1 u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 u' x7 j1 B! l) [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 H& v1 K, U- h8 P8 D8 xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
. u7 ~3 l( H* a4 Dexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
: O# @4 l/ Y6 ]2 `8 u1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 w# y* D' N% C  Q6 _
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 j, l' K2 G/ J1 ?8 N% Wbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in1 u& V8 w' A' O2 K/ `' X
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
, A4 q4 V5 V& Q3 Zunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ a4 \. u) l6 N! M9 q( W- X" punsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest  A3 H2 ~, r+ [* p) z; K
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' |4 D; n# Y6 r* J6 E8 ?( B& _7 Q. r: Presale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 W# M# O5 Q! Z- a0 o, r
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% L# Y$ @+ M6 C$ X; u$ h
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled# R, F* Z6 w( E  z( s& l
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 ^9 J! i  i2 [3 }" Q; GThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s% d# l9 A- @( e' M7 a. q5 e
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, y  P3 l0 N2 @4 QAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. f* W/ W% ]/ N% X$ U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
/ ^9 |9 @' o7 Z; z: x! m" crelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 P" t; P4 v) M* ]3 eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even( g5 A- p# F! B  O
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
( M- _, ?9 e* U8 I) u3 Gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; ?1 G; f% r! y# E4 L! Z) B3 [
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average4 h, h: o0 J' U3 m
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 K+ j) a  {0 j3 _5 }" {4 d, vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- t$ i! _' v# k; L+ @
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’2 a0 _9 E, u# @0 M0 U+ A3 a/ S
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 f, v0 y& _4 I5 B" z4 g0 CAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 m) ?) {) Y; A: U, L- \
leg down over 2009.
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+ A& G' Z# N6 O: L9 S* a[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 Z  X+ v' Q. R$ S0 Y$ B7 z; wAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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2 i% D5 O1 I3 R[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
8 Y- e6 J' H+ F: q& Y9 Q5 G翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子! f2 @# E( J2 W* f+ |: g8 O
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments5 \3 m1 F; E- Z( G$ |6 j2 V/ D- w

# C: P9 M* w* V: {# R; w( d/ |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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