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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta5 Q: T7 K, Y D! k8 r
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 M2 n( P; G- l
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; |9 @- J% f$ J9 K. _9 E7 b( e8 n
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
3 ?& R- X1 N. Z5 v2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
6 |: [; v$ [2 K0 D, Nformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
+ D6 E) W- F- g' `4 efrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. @- X4 {4 P q0 u
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; z' G1 P+ ?* V: \3 z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% f: e- z$ z; W# t+ `pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed, s* |: F+ Q; E
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 _2 T7 x9 A2 D) e, u
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ C, J5 x8 Z; J
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- `& @9 w. B: @. Z6 ~" v: y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' o+ P9 w6 z* j m) `
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around1 |( C$ v; P6 H; s; Z, ~
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 ~0 f$ |& N. T0 f2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
( J/ q6 Z5 R" ~3 E$ ~! {0 h1 eEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s @1 D' J; I" x# l. F) S1 x
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%- Z4 y T2 ^( G- H6 C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
# f$ Z: ]; O' A. L+ q, }has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new8 [+ u0 Z/ F9 ?
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! `8 ^9 P9 {3 f$ t rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging' i. @" d: \) U
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
y# V; H) p3 K9 }clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 h* S2 `$ ]) a# t; Z
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
! I/ j! A& L* Z6 M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a- U& I; `7 F# S) ?+ j
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 ^# k o- P Obuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, P9 v' @5 s, D* g
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in6 `+ Y2 b1 D! H4 g& B* I4 \9 T
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" B- ~! w, I! |. Yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. L q6 E* q' W- N; O7 mrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) {" K: | `% Mresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s6 h9 h; B9 C: [$ `: o
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories6 z' `/ m ]) t$ q& u i3 F
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* @& j: c5 `& I! _% W1 G: z/ zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 m! k, \; B4 ]' s
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* j, S& K% X; s- m3 V5 W0 E# X* w# pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic. q' U* Q1 P( T+ g: | m( V
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: a3 u! u4 z6 A, n3 X8 ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
+ Q Q- Q# d5 P( q- Frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ j- t+ Q$ a# V; Lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) l7 `& N9 z3 n( U2 S: S
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* {# `3 b+ k4 Q0 j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 s+ q4 Z$ k1 Z" o8 \$ s7 [+ b6 VThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# z- E" v- C. o5 E2 S, h, ]resale price in February is evidence that past prices& Q. L. h4 n4 p0 ~
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 i* i9 C1 K9 n" H: q5 a0 ~. whomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
5 T$ g4 z+ e0 H, G! Q0 vdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; J1 h% D% K# h& s! W; zAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%* s& U: v4 G0 T2 N
leg down over 2009.
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) c3 z( u' e5 c+ {# P {5 v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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