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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta7 F: D0 T+ C5 f, _& i7 m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its( J" y% X; O! w8 V! E
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
$ A/ n* ~% a7 q9 Z8 xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to/ j! D' K# A- P! l! ?7 j
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 U; @" z/ N! w6 Hformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided( E6 v( Q3 i8 ~3 H5 p2 z" ~: a
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,. {" d9 ^2 m) A" y( e z h. C
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
w) a. v+ u+ N& xmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ W0 ]1 E6 H" x4 V
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; ` w K: L* P: u* N$ L( Q% m
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" ]( X4 c- N2 l, u9 T3 Ito 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; n' a0 C$ e& H% H. Z. Fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& d% M- o" |+ B9 F1 Y1 B' myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, h( [( M+ Z5 L# [' Q! W
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around' i3 h' G# I/ y- ~
30,000 new households will form in the province during
; X+ z8 k2 _2 f9 h4 G, l9 q7 H+ J- z. l# U2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year., ^$ Z% E+ m7 z. l9 u) g# ~' c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 T8 x5 c" r9 u6 D
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 ~3 C- c$ f" l* W" s# {
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* Y! U. r7 y7 ?4 ~( J, r; s
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
/ r" L! R* Y& R; z/ zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, o! |9 u, Y7 t' Zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
- z9 F. A0 b: ^3 }sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ h0 A2 r1 n8 k S+ O _clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
1 c; S: J) d5 C* n4 yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 A9 F; N& a. ?! @$ b1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. ?" I. n& w6 b5 F! \; \7 n2 {
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 R1 d, P( i) |, R
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 l/ u5 h0 N: _two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 K7 {( j6 Q+ L0 U4 ]. k
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" w Q0 }. I7 @( C# N9 k0 l
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& m4 b2 G9 P/ ?+ l* {3 e B; Crecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the" ?; [9 G# q6 _8 i. {. {* r, ]6 I
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s: u* [& f* H# L4 D4 M1 G, n5 F
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# a% T6 A e, E% hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
3 g+ a t/ `& I; e3 E( b6 `rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
}* X3 y) Q) EThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 G' D6 k+ X5 y7 D+ s. }" jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
) [7 i G1 \$ H0 \Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 M3 @! L; k% a& n. ~, T4 hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ c/ _5 o k+ f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- R. L: H- j& X1 z5 J# m: m% I
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 T8 A6 X1 G! s |* tthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* \" h( g! `0 d( Eon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable., X* H' i8 L6 M" b5 m) t3 u- c
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average- `6 @- M3 Y. c6 ~, q* M/ Q( ~; M4 w* R
resale price in February is evidence that past prices* a5 V% L3 w/ o3 g
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( }- X- Q0 J9 ]; ]
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) U( I" p) T' p' h, ?' M* P5 h+ _deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ ^- H0 C* ^& Y( X
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 ?4 J( J1 z/ S3 Xleg down over 2009.) q, b: ]$ l) n
+ j7 f. @# s+ o( W- k$ b. ~$ l
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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