 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
* }" x* i( ~5 f, [+ SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- D2 \; e9 C" ~& C+ k/ I) Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 k# @3 @$ a1 Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. `3 N; F5 _4 y* Z6 p
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- {9 X! X" k' B/ s& F7 _7 L- Vformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
' x8 s+ Q1 q$ K7 Z* ]. k4 I# Zfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& Z; f2 A& Y. g* b* F7 sthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 y( Y$ ~% G3 o6 `; P, R9 omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
! d" F$ i3 P! O1 v. B$ Cpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" G/ d5 _* o/ R6 w3 r* b$ Pprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* C4 I% R }$ H" C. l, v3 ?
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
; N( P/ ?6 @0 B8 ^ C) {prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" |; y, d' a' M# |2 iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,% i& C7 h" j3 B- ?8 q5 r
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& X- t+ f* I. W. D
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 Q! {, X& o+ `5 w6 k& s- X7 }2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# O$ s: R/ ?: c) j: z* N
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& l3 d) x0 K1 b8 ^" U" q
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ M; d+ T! d% k; cduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
) T# d( v6 a: |) Y. x6 lhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new c0 t! L5 x0 i4 X: [* H
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ H! T( L2 a( f+ Y2 B
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging) [% `" i9 H* u' b: \
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
5 J/ Y- y( | {# ?clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is. l; l# w( t# N4 j- H( T& i
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of( x: ]) W/ o; c. c) {- A
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ v, q" e- ^- dsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 |) X7 G" S2 Z" t6 Q
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* \' B: X! a# X9 |* R1 c4 _ s* S
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in# D: {" N: u) Z; D2 E4 V
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 N) S/ ~- g) v" ? C wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) ^; T2 k5 d8 p- q4 m: V
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
8 U- r6 S# {+ uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
; |8 w' ~' K; J7 g! R- cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ j0 [! Z- B! P8 [) {of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) L, {6 ?/ @, y$ B; i9 O" q {rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ }4 B5 j; r% b/ A0 i
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 F9 D- K, ^9 xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.& [8 D9 {" R, V3 d" l6 k
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
; v2 N$ D i& X: L8 a. [2 u" O* {housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. s$ Q. a1 ?, ^* {/ ^' n: M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 p- `' d5 [% f7 x% u6 j/ J
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even, u Z4 L. a8 _: j2 A1 k/ d
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners( X1 s9 Q( V5 U7 P
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
! a' T0 a# l# s' N. p; mThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 V4 b0 S) g- Z, G1 [* oresale price in February is evidence that past prices; `8 q5 e, I! ~, N
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ V4 [! T" M' k; _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* }$ P. v9 `3 s2 t! d- m: X
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 V) `( k( M' C: u& [Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 @+ U; b; E0 v; \/ A s# g
leg down over 2009.! N$ }: n. d- ~/ s: g
, l5 m$ ?! ~3 R0 H! l% {3 |[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|