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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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  Z; S+ V  u: B8 {0 t: T, j; ITD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 K* n& A! ~. D5 F9 C0 ?+ r4 |
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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' E% J2 `3 ~0 |, q4 ]) \Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.: C2 G  Y- F% x0 d% _

2 F$ g! w- w( s/ r: e' `8 |0 E6 vTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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, i$ a1 k: N( p' [# l& O( z) D"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. # s0 q% K" y$ |' d, ?

# t9 Y: ^' p7 I* [TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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6 r. n. E  s' R$ Y, OMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. - k8 F, R. o& w: v
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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* m; J; Z, y4 E! u/ }  j( }8 J3 x/ \TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,: @) @; T6 ^3 P; z

& ~8 Z( k. j, e& j: y& x- G/ g[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。7 g# x7 Z  o& o
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
+ v* i2 r" E8 v8 ~8 k6 D跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
( \5 |* K  w7 U) f嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
1 W. P# L8 H4 t% SWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 \# I. F2 K8 {4 l5 H
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
! W3 S4 Z7 `* ~( Fare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ k* o8 K* T# T; c) q5 j( j2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, V/ K( a# F  |
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& Z7 A! Y5 K* r- D4 x+ V# c
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
! R) Y4 v1 u" k' h* Hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
$ h, j7 V3 I8 h/ @may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
8 L! O1 _" }+ i9 q$ E6 K9 P6 Vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: t; V/ v" M3 n" Mprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 r) w# [# W4 s: t  `$ Wto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 @: Q% I" ~1 K- ~' g2 _
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# P. v- I0 Y. t! {2 qyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,' t: `; P. A: u4 P
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
; P: _1 O& H! m' q, s+ d! [30,000 new households will form in the province during+ O9 A, x/ s+ D6 Q9 l
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! p- C" ^4 d  D  l9 q! V
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s3 L8 F9 X* r& |1 l; }
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 ?9 d, p5 o( f6 ^4 |
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, y0 B& F; }% D" p5 K
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new2 T' T9 _- p! O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 R: K1 X" [7 Y; k. Qduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 i, v. Z/ y6 Y' R5 ^: W+ z, @
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, [! x+ R" @& Q4 `
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 r8 D" L9 Z2 p! y- v- B( h& Dexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
3 O; @5 b. S! ~2 F% ~6 S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a" Z% y- u5 B; a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 m) V! i0 Z6 x0 _, Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
  l7 \$ g/ f5 @9 w- ]5 S7 y) K  xtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 L: T: a7 p- s& n4 Munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
. [5 X1 I5 |/ c0 c/ d1 B  p" `8 aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest$ n7 \* A2 t7 k/ a! X
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
' l$ j" W$ {0 A9 Qresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ l2 W4 U' V9 _
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
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1 I/ D. k! ^& R6 v/ _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.5 T2 W$ @, \6 H
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; L) I; p% L5 Z* Q: aboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.- n4 U* u7 l4 t' `
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: e. U7 Z4 a- t3 X, Lhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& I+ o; @4 Y  o1 v0 ?% y5 r( brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale# j8 R& r) c5 v5 t% Z# `% t/ p
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
1 [! ^- \8 L. N* @7 N* ?% G# bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 f9 K/ Y1 h6 I+ p) [; w) Xon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 D; \; \/ T/ {  sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; a* q) s2 p! M' nresale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ X: j( c/ V& F8 P% S  f, Aexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove0 Q4 n  ]. G' \1 x
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& {0 v; J7 a9 N, o, Z& B% a* F7 Edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 u- M3 k1 @! v& d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
  F$ |5 N8 d" v  yleg down over 2009.0 i/ j# k; E6 ]0 m
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 F( v) g6 @! ^- u# FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 0 t, z8 T6 l+ [& |0 w0 [2 L" g
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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# A$ N- w$ y" U! j5 }http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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: G6 J- N0 [2 a& _3 {[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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