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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
" t; }+ v: m' E/ PWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 K _7 G, Z# T( Cboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton% v; A. ]6 ^$ j" s$ @" j3 I
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
! I1 ^/ T* F4 z7 |! z1 i# ]8 A2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
?' ^3 ~$ ?1 ]$ B' F$ v" pformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ m+ u6 ]' t2 N* j. P) F9 Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% ?$ S. e7 Z: T( y( A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 v9 m. y) u& K0 ~8 ~
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous9 L: X; Z5 N6 C- C6 w. N: \" J* i+ z: g
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
, q7 [4 z. z# n3 `2 O4 fprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. W6 X0 G( |+ _: x
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* M) \0 C, i# i7 Y* k- w
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 h/ d6 k+ E5 {! Q5 Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,4 @7 o' z* \3 Z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- l5 c' W: g/ B* ~* A30,000 new households will form in the province during. }3 y7 D# D% J1 R0 y) H# X$ n, K; Z; M
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) y9 w- y& B7 Y) R) f2 L H( o: \ IEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. V6 V- Z/ k# ?: Q1 Khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%5 l& K6 V9 x; W+ Y7 S
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
! C# v! |+ `$ B% Qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 p: |3 r: A0 u+ b- jhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals& c' F8 F, |2 | Y7 ^8 L; {8 I" b
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ Z( w2 V( S/ M. j
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories- [! q; [& F s# }
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
& P" E) o# u5 Hexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ z7 t# H; N4 S4 k" b
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a9 q' X6 C# p. P
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 j4 x+ R# B+ }, Mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
6 i/ U0 `8 ~4 |/ Y# ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 A0 g1 b) _& a m7 D, M0 Lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
7 {7 z2 {) i/ w5 O) x% ~. Aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
) _8 \$ g" M: b& l. X! j9 ?recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
b' m7 Y6 U# i. oresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
/ g) Y1 e9 e: I2 L0 |8 F6 D6 kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
% j6 M# F1 u; _- x# }, {4 @7 Gof new singles, and, with demand having cooled" Y3 Q/ J) V p( U* ^, y
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.. l6 W4 f( c1 [$ i' ?
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 x& R/ { I. ] o( X0 D
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 G* P+ C2 @* R) A7 cAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan9 m( r4 A! v1 m& c2 C; x2 H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
: L v* I1 p* Zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 ]1 c* G: s( I) X4 _ F
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: y, l- ?! w$ Q0 O
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) t' N9 F2 t& p" v2 f" d1 R; lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( X+ ~8 b% W% g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 }: C% a3 _5 |8 c8 ~resale price in February is evidence that past prices Y( `. k# m& \/ ?( |% R2 v
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove/ x& \. D* \: o; d, _
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
- d; l5 F( V: B: g5 d# |2 a/ r2 zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,- J. w6 S( r7 `& R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! l! E; t/ X1 b7 y, L/ ~% Cleg down over 2009.
, e; A/ ]2 H( ^- {1 C0 Q9 T" @, C8 I! e! r5 e
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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