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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.+ i6 l" m' A+ r

0 h4 ]& c; o# d$ _TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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  A! S( c7 y" WThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.: Q: F1 l2 T9 \

. p- q0 z3 o2 Q' F# V; e6 d"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.1 w: s! J$ g4 |; ]. J3 G
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
2 `4 R6 ?) Q! Y* B% E& f1 t# M 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! s' d' \# ^$ a1 y7 W( t( y' K
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 $ r% S  N, k1 G6 g- F( o" t
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

2 G' x& |' l0 h8 O' E1 `' b很多人都回学校深造去了3 X6 M: i* K- I: L+ Y* r- O/ `
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta) a6 A$ z5 F$ U
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
( |" v$ h' Q- H5 wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) f( E/ S/ R8 ?8 o* i, vare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
! ~- ~" ~: O" h2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. E1 f2 m- u* e5 u+ n2 R+ s  P* x
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 z4 O* u4 k! f+ |! Y9 afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- C& Z+ p/ p  H3 a$ n) c- I8 Fthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and! J; G& @$ w  F$ v- {7 k
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous. Z$ q& |9 H+ t2 Z1 R' @+ l- j
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
" E2 i3 @5 C8 l# o3 E9 Rprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 `, X! ~, E) ?4 w2 x+ yto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
  k8 ?' @3 I: l. c. Oprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ m5 c- d2 l# C9 S
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,+ O: W* a8 Y& g- K4 @  T
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
, j9 F! f5 I0 j5 ]9 ^0 ?30,000 new households will form in the province during* l, E* e8 ?  E) K* o
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.0 A) J7 |& S" o8 p
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) A" p% K2 S# Nhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 O8 b8 o% \& ^% J2 n) @6 x  D, J
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* ~4 ]% K6 x9 g! L: L$ _/ @has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
1 E, ?* D7 _* y4 x9 i9 chouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals) U# ?0 H/ J7 {6 K; Z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 ?4 b4 P- f+ r' N1 q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: h0 t: e/ ~  h9 V$ q* cclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 \+ v7 w8 J9 X9 e+ ~
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of& Z9 w2 E+ Y% l' f' `& ~% O
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 J# N$ B, Q1 j) t2 O) m
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" |4 ]8 l4 A" V
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ Z( a7 m4 @; z- P' J. Ttwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" Q+ ?# s6 P4 J$ }) Ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& n9 M2 U7 j- c
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest+ P5 J7 i2 V% a7 b
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- I2 {6 x2 y  ~  Dresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% `- F; M8 a$ k* ?6 e7 ]
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* f# G7 E" c+ a7 R. L
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 G  T$ R" J3 j8 Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 q2 i& r+ U# G! a( u. D: FThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 f1 s; g- E  A
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* G4 A( }6 H  r) e& ]
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
! d. S8 F) Y7 X6 [; |% xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 K8 X4 X: {, K( X; r
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale* r  o6 M, ]2 P4 ^/ ]
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: u: I4 `5 T( X& I) sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; a1 g2 J5 ^) V5 m: s! _
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.6 _3 ^& q$ H- _) K1 m( G
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average& i3 B0 t$ k' T
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
  x( ]. l( Q; A: z- z* W! oexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  u" T$ W" `. bhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. l7 V1 ]! t4 E* T7 O5 T% Z& Xdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 |* a6 w% O# E) X' m
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 b* _9 b/ \8 H- d
leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 k# a+ U  ?+ ~. M3 ?
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. " R% P- n% f1 d* L
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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