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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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8 E5 r8 q9 e- w% jTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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% n/ z5 I  ~$ D* \, G& E  @$ c5 ~TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.) C6 T6 X' W2 e" F" v' u8 `# t1 v

3 e% _4 O0 x% P# W/ K"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 3 L1 S6 b* n5 \
2 U+ Q$ e* w* b' r* S3 ?
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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2 b! W/ Z0 c  j# f) }$ f$ Dhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

; d) |9 y! D/ I0 p& g3 ~8 r! e6 p9 j2 Q: t( K  E, E  H
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,3 u+ \9 X" J- i1 c
( [$ ?6 y; t% j8 w, P6 P/ _
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。+ }# \' H  K" b* }1 P$ M
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 0 {0 j. t) _, O3 h% Z1 e, D
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

: f7 j9 p: o& ~+ H" w# n: x很多人都回学校深造去了, s8 V/ \! x- P- U' c' ?/ l& G
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta4 K( I& _5 t( J% i* e0 B% h  {# j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
* J  c5 @( b3 Y* L# Tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 ~8 `5 W+ Z' r& a" L8 o2 @
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, P; k, o# R3 R5 K2 K
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; H; K6 j8 w' u' ~8 D# `* ]formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ [/ s$ J  i+ ~: Afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
  v! N3 W; y0 L, U% u3 bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and) E% J/ d) k( ~' o$ |
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- v% n4 ~: ]5 D1 h, J# n/ Z0 I
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# R5 [( v" n0 J% uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& G! M0 ^8 ^0 a& D5 bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year0 D1 l8 P0 Y7 o' H0 m
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 H7 T  x& g8 s6 G, U! _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 }2 e( \# c+ Q5 V; T- E/ C/ m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& `" a% U7 Z' U: [. r1 ]
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ N6 B- z0 O% @, j8 F2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.% q& v  T* N. u0 O8 v# Q
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) u- i  W3 v4 Z- O: ]
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# ]! ^5 K9 M0 B% Y, Z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta. d8 P, f1 Y8 B! C3 }
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 c' m' B$ J7 I$ M- Lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals  Q# P5 O6 ^& E6 M
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ q1 j, X! u; n2 d
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' \+ L4 g: F! ^
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 Q* c! G# l6 T/ d
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* O$ x8 ~4 H) ?+ L; p$ ?/ u" E1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a# ^, X- Z2 V9 C( {6 P  {
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
/ i. O% l& `. x+ o4 z! Lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 ]8 I+ x, l1 T0 v- m. z) g/ T. \2 T
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 W7 D0 o% Q7 U% ^& ], |
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! q$ C7 f, q# ~* p4 S2 j* L
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* G* e. t- ~2 N- j' f" Q3 Z- srecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 t$ i# ]" L2 I$ @resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" _2 b: M) O% Y% |' Z5 w8 _major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories& _) [! b6 ]7 G
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ t$ V; @+ G& U# N9 j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ [, o8 B$ _0 Z( x" s4 I$ w. L
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 [: y' i, l! d9 |8 Jboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.5 N! v6 J$ W( n* x# ]2 f! s
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
' T: `6 r* m+ K$ |4 X. M7 R  Nhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ S2 ^) @& t8 t0 J4 e
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale7 b9 i! j  x7 h) J
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even; i4 w/ @, o/ h, i+ E
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# s( u1 g  Y5 e6 V( Pon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 d2 e$ L& C* N% i+ ]1 n; @The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average2 E1 e2 y4 o# ]5 G; w+ ]
resale price in February is evidence that past prices& r6 C- r6 u$ s0 ?4 t" r" \
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove: A/ l- e0 f2 q/ ?
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’9 z$ \* K; h' q5 g; v
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
' E; d; v! V  I8 z- H" H; g& TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%3 m6 {% V4 a2 R  h, m) f
leg down over 2009.; \9 c( Q+ a/ c6 D6 R0 B5 Y

# y% l$ s0 t% W. E; C& A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 m+ T$ i7 X6 J6 p. h/ c% V$ H% q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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6 T2 H9 H$ }5 e7 K8 f[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
  H5 c6 R5 ]6 r4 K0 t' O" V翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子6 S, l! _/ d$ f

' B( D8 f% F( Ghttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments- |1 O  r( d' z; G( S
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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