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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta( l2 w' @9 ?, l; h$ g+ ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 @# \/ P2 V2 n4 T
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* i- @/ s' Y' G+ z2 A
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to8 u$ Z1 K9 z8 l2 x6 Z, E9 C
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) Y9 S# t/ x* Z0 n+ ?' v, _
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ D* [7 l8 I, I7 A: R, ?7 xfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 H# c+ f, l' f4 L( U: m- y* @the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 q% @4 g4 I: x4 ~may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
% Z J! c: L8 J) Kpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ S6 y/ n8 n+ V& y& nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. @0 F2 J" ]3 S) R3 p! i" P. A
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
. H" M, c' Y! Pprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* _) O2 g4 h1 J# `year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
3 a1 F. P5 k3 k6 _$ l* F" Ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
8 v! o' P! w8 j q30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 Q; O/ f8 j* K' G% c: Z2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; o! c3 ?) { G/ y3 k/ d' Q; _Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 ^# a3 T, ?* {8 S
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%# u7 ?) M* G9 T" y- g! Z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, p' s# \5 B; l3 M7 Z7 c9 O- g0 Ahas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: q6 r7 U7 m w- xhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 i% W G1 ]+ p; R# u
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging h3 m5 P3 L( ~1 j* ~
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 U* y7 m$ e- m# Bclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is8 p$ z) P, O( \1 M8 Q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of7 X$ Z+ C( \. X: x
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, D2 o5 N6 C! z, m
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
4 J+ }: V: u+ `3 [buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in' |3 S! B5 g8 S5 B( ?
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" C3 Z5 k$ K' t- ^$ C* ~0 wunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ y6 \ z$ L1 H6 F, iunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
: H2 H. U% r) ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& y, s" X" E7 Y4 jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s- m- ?2 c4 }! t
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* U* s- \' Y4 ~
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
6 h- i, h+ P( P( p3 s2 b: zrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ Q0 o% h* m" X2 |4 P* OThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s$ _& E, ]0 x* d; k3 N9 X
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.# m3 S8 Z+ v( U$ R
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan; V, F# }' W5 W' l7 d: [/ t" H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- f: {1 x# L t5 Z z4 U9 ^
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
! x. j8 h5 N& A4 y% mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- g. X2 T, j. I5 V* ?' m+ D2 Fthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% l) R- D+ u3 t1 Z( Q. O
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* U1 G& ^6 l* F$ h" K
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
$ n& I$ r+ G$ E' ]$ A! ^( gresale price in February is evidence that past prices( g( W. y2 ~+ s
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" @( {6 u1 u$ L+ }homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’( r- u( U$ Y9 O1 `2 c& t
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: O4 V/ F/ v9 j7 J% p
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
& C! H/ z5 P- T5 K6 xleg down over 2009.
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I' O4 `4 s, {6 O[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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