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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
3 ~! G ~7 r9 q) D- E! t) l4 XWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: Z* i- W& U V- U6 t* L# P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 ^* X& c p+ s3 q1 m6 u, y6 {
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 l& ?2 [' x) s9 Q2 W+ H1 s2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ `$ q& s2 [) p' }4 ]
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
1 K& d1 p, x- ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,; n/ a) `5 b3 P4 }: }) }) }
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and# |; N9 o' M$ }: I4 @
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
T: O. l: s( o! I9 `) f( p/ Vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
* Q, V7 r6 _; eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' k: J' d2 s& o7 W$ W. `
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 e4 I$ [' F$ ]. g! I9 P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
% \5 q8 ?6 {( _8 B& [year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,- T+ [: i7 W3 j8 x# Q9 x/ b2 i
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around" _5 B* ?7 b6 n Y) t; G
30,000 new households will form in the province during) t& i& v# ~# c
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.7 ~1 v5 W/ k9 I: E3 F0 E- g- o
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s! n5 T8 k4 V' _2 Z1 J! I) ^
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
( M0 J1 X* A* y4 ?) u9 ^: j6 ^' Lduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
4 b9 k$ m' ]( z% rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) ?0 t* S5 W, ?) w+ Bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
2 j% i" Z! g' q4 \: M0 I" [5 pduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging! u: X7 j* [2 x
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
! u7 a; |# p+ c; g: }! N# Uclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) ]/ M- {: d% c1 u4 ?6 bexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of: V1 o: y! S7 R7 o4 P% W
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a0 `9 Z% J2 z# V% e7 z6 {
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 w0 S: b' H( B% }6 y3 @
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ b& _2 r2 P! ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
! [7 D+ j/ V& |7 Ounsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747. V4 o L+ V) K, h. J
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: x3 r' Y9 _* D+ \3 H# k
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 A/ `8 }% C" H( Z3 G0 D6 g
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 P1 @( \! z! [1 O! F$ @major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories* m, L% h% o9 B, c5 O9 h
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled# n# Q! {/ f$ C4 E+ @5 l) {/ d% G
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ q: {; l$ J0 ^( A4 x
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 P2 N: I! k. d8 _* xboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* [( e- D) w( d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! Z4 b4 B* i) W" `8 g/ r
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 F' |$ i- w! q9 [* T# H+ b I( R. wrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale# e4 V) Y* o! |2 E' }7 ?
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: \6 q- Q! P* b, p
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners2 a9 [7 v7 ^& z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- Y& w( ^4 s5 aThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
% ?7 }. W. q( O* ^resale price in February is evidence that past prices
- M; U# P2 u9 B" f0 a# {exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
9 l( v/ d) I: i" \$ E. j9 Khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
{3 B a% J: Ldeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,4 Z. x) D' p; R( z( ^5 J; W9 d
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%8 D: I O4 _/ d# f5 Z, k/ \9 A$ H
leg down over 2009.. h' [7 k v: w1 r, Y) k! ^: S
; ^) K8 k- z7 u5 a5 ^, h( v7 m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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