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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta# x8 c! ?! d# S. J
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ T7 A1 A! h0 V Eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; ]( X/ u9 t3 Y: J6 q6 t2 B
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( e4 b; s" J& j7 y# `# z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household6 j1 S0 S8 r0 ~: ^" b$ n
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 p/ b" J' m% l3 afrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% h h6 i% r% R W5 q. O( d
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 Q/ z) ]" Z9 g! l' V4 `may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
4 ?$ [/ H( P; n" d. Y* ipace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- O" R: [# T5 v7 V0 d
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined) Z+ z& \8 ?, R ~$ J1 t
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year. i- N0 E" ]$ ?" V) X6 p
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this$ o% s: ^7 z& h
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,6 f7 v/ J6 r! N! Y* {% X7 a
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around! ]: _' T/ h: _' I; a, `
30,000 new households will form in the province during; ?# y* L$ E: h% ?0 z3 s3 g* X
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# u8 C: H9 f3 _Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# v1 w, L# T+ B9 q7 x, h) I) xhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ _7 j6 Y$ Y2 P8 h9 u& G2 o* kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta; y. d1 w' B' g6 I- g7 d( \
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new- h( k* t. D& N& C7 A. z3 R
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 V# f; [1 X, z b( Cduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 N8 d6 \8 \. i( x' a* |sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
4 K' m1 W: {* Eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ \0 e5 K. f( r% I( Cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of- Z7 T7 i* o: D& j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
6 R5 E- }$ p ^$ ?8 j- Gsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( y9 ]6 e/ ~% N" sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. C1 O4 f: Q4 L: Btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
" O4 N+ G. |8 Runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( j# w. o8 |0 A. A& j: j2 B
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest. F& A4 p! ^( p: s% f P* s- E
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the1 {$ o' L$ m( U) t- n w$ _
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 O2 q8 w1 v5 s8 a1 Amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ E! F& Z* h! v2 c5 y* I) i' s0 E
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, h$ e+ H" v3 T! ~
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
C7 |$ u' H- u! V7 B6 dThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 `7 M- C- `- m- h0 \& _# oboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.! u7 H/ y4 z0 \; N
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) j7 z$ v% x* b P X9 \housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
7 y/ O0 y/ I" n# s1 O1 zrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
: V; Y. u6 ?" |prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
" e, r6 k8 P4 zthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. }2 r$ L& Y% x# |1 Z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
+ w# s. v; \6 Q7 T" X, H: V2 u! ZThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average% ^. P$ t0 C$ _2 m- r& R% z6 E1 G8 b2 O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
9 D! F- k/ p3 d, nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" n6 B* ? N6 P- Q" O
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
. x1 h1 J! V1 {$ {, Vdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% M7 ?' a8 y0 q0 s1 |( M C. D
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%7 C$ z) q: R5 c: C+ [4 w
leg down over 2009.
& Q5 {9 P; G5 f) |( O5 b8 E' q% b& r: m8 T
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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