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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 d: i; Q# J# q% h

6 q) r" i2 D) _0 x9 Z+ Z9 I1 MTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. + w/ _8 @' y' G* b8 N0 {
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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" G+ ^- `8 e- S4 F6 y"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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: J0 c( r$ ]/ l" CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 w5 @8 \# \& ?) o

: J) o# ~$ c! {7 s5 T) b) Y7 _; sMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 4 `" c* g) d8 G6 b) \$ t
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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# Q- P* E1 |  WTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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3 F2 f$ w# H: ^, ?: T( N[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。+ K$ G: C4 R( V" E2 V  c. B
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。7 B/ I# X  y& Z5 f
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 $ R* j( N% E; ~1 W8 x; b
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了. Q5 i. r' Z6 e, w( M! t
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
3 ~0 g9 ?( j3 Z, `3 S1 x- X7 cWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its: }( I( Y; G0 x
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton  W" x) ]7 v; g: U  f8 Y: `
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to9 t/ }2 k  j! q. t* W: T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household% }5 L5 h6 A$ Q$ H% o- |% L
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. A+ R) w' T. v. i: |from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
- }1 [3 N! J2 M3 T0 Z8 X- Qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
: b* [$ V& `+ g. S' O# Hmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
$ e; N8 C0 s' F2 o( d  B: |3 zpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
# ]$ a$ ^. {, k( k6 dprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* R2 V. d2 ?) I, S9 B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year+ `5 t. p( [7 z& \0 D! k% ]
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, U) x& J  I! B; f& _
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 j! o# ~3 E+ T# A+ I; G
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
% L/ Z! |' c; T! W1 e( d4 x30,000 new households will form in the province during
  b0 }" a5 y/ \2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# A! [1 ~$ w6 GEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 A2 F% K- {/ k. W' f
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ ?5 b# d: C" \  R( y+ \during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* T) T# r+ x/ l! n
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new  b4 i; j; U7 j! \
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
* E! _  j5 m0 w2 r  Sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging9 q! \  I8 M' G1 [% X! m% W, y7 c
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 ~& c6 x1 G, nclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! t& T/ `5 T& g! c
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# k1 g* y& a" Z; L) J5 P
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
% ~( u- X- W! B7 ?6 Rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive% y- h9 N9 S0 W( g7 X
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, g9 _0 b% ~" E
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) V( p: C; v/ N2 `
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
0 }; t) a; V' V% N2 X" |unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
/ W$ F7 x: ^7 g* G' m4 L$ Jrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the' V+ s/ P6 A+ @* {: K) m/ \. I
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 v6 w9 d4 `7 n* Jmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! X9 T6 X' a% O# \; Y. j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 [1 j- S: g/ jrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.% O9 i5 ]  u) j
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 @9 N; C5 R, a* Nboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic." Z4 q; z, G+ r3 G% K# v$ b0 R* c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan! a8 ]6 `* D2 v
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 P5 O3 f8 S' f) Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 P: j$ U3 B* d. ]# t* b5 o; }) t
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
! f/ _4 o4 X- y0 H# J. N0 T  rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: U8 n8 M/ l  F" von average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 S1 S+ G: _9 YThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
2 u: U" \1 O3 H# g, [resale price in February is evidence that past prices+ ^( ?( |$ j% u4 l; \
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" S! y& X- _$ Y. ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# p' Q/ m3 ?8 v3 n# t( k! jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,, {$ a$ N: J4 R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%: H$ I& ?5 b8 @+ f# O" V4 D( C- k! y
leg down over 2009.
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1 C# D2 M6 s; K4 T2 i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 f7 q& r  O3 @# l9 J
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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6 ^+ g7 l; g: T& I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 7 [: D0 f8 q7 {; e2 h  D
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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, o' f" i. s* }! u, l) H6 Rhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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2 g4 P0 |8 w, A+ m& X% g7 U[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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