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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta4 f( V( w# A- Q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its% F, P' f% ~: H+ e, ~
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 U- n/ Y8 z B
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
{4 D5 e' W4 T2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
, k8 Z/ ~2 W' N, F$ aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
3 Q+ q) N! k: } Z1 E5 {from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
2 o" B% F: _: ?0 g3 s5 xthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
* }% C g o& Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
. m) J' S' g" q: hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 S% S& O/ z1 n7 }7 c. |precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; j4 j; }, d, ]6 ~$ cto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) I' J, N3 _( c8 R
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
}7 o6 m0 Y( zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,; h( [. [: S ~$ k2 P
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 q- }0 D" q5 \! t
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 H. d8 c: W; W3 y8 N2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.6 g+ E- X1 e# f9 z/ c a
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 m, d3 M5 @, ?, \4 k0 Dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
# Q5 B! p' Y W6 r5 k+ Mduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta8 B8 x* C( q8 ?8 Q E4 J4 U
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
) r( \9 j: j$ B2 _$ T0 h5 Bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
k7 e/ E4 C. A* T" Rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* a+ i" P$ F: q: B
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories$ O3 e9 U$ C, h/ _
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is( ^+ j5 o3 t; }5 p3 x8 F% |5 f" a0 t0 }
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 a& R7 x/ y7 q1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* ^ h, i# {) V5 [/ fsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
9 L4 }) E( X0 n6 N5 W) C% lbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in/ T$ ~) v2 z8 C7 l
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
2 T; N( ^" t5 k- k7 Vunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# L3 X- K. j1 n
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
# q+ }- q6 J; Y" l$ x, {recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, O0 n" S4 k- }resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
F$ g. B1 b4 L% Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
6 P1 z, q5 f% ]* hof new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ D& v8 v& C; L- x3 B. d6 Z a6 c
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.- u+ U+ V- s3 q$ F8 I) j
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) q# V4 K% P. O7 v' }6 p3 C V
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' Y, @; d- o# ?) g6 [' BAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; R4 S' F5 l5 Q2 G" `3 hhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced/ F& s) _% X9 k. V: Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
& Y; F8 z8 F) q) H! qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 G( o, O8 A' k0 N
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners8 ^6 f# T, b' f$ V
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! s; M& |$ I' M5 R" [+ W; O" K
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
d9 _" A! L4 q! B7 Z" F/ Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices% `" Q1 h2 [) L/ h0 ?4 m8 @" N! H
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
2 i& F# X# c1 o% u! W" ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
; V' p7 ~9 }9 H8 q: g0 O3 p, cdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ X3 b( A; x8 ~% ^
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
6 U. y" I8 t' J) r& Z- e7 bleg down over 2009.* z X6 j- ?8 b. I E
# ~/ ~! c# N k5 W* i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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