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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 3 V# Z7 I7 I# D4 N5 k

6 m) S) G) T2 q4 a+ h( rThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ; Y  t# Y( ]# n

6 Z+ e- o) B; NNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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6 `' k; [9 c* R+ I2 ]TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.; E8 I4 K6 j6 K, o/ @

7 c* Y2 x3 s4 e: U"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 9 c, c2 [# S* \# K' R" Y
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. " V; C. R+ p) @% U
& Q+ k2 A5 ?+ z) @2 x+ }9 h' {
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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. y0 q4 K" Z! ~) s  mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,4 B% {- R# Z( y- D
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。% `1 @% _! ?" M5 `9 F8 F
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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) W1 D3 L* p6 j: T# `+ ~7 L( J[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 - q$ n4 U; ~( i9 e
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

+ h4 o( ^  m/ \! ^( B/ V' c很多人都回学校深造去了: S; H2 t4 [0 S5 U% ^2 l0 x  W% ]
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta  Y% M& U- m# N! M
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
, C2 F: C8 z0 Y% c8 hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
  l- p7 Q+ C4 O8 Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to' r7 J  {$ I/ `1 C. |+ z
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household2 _* ~( L) t. @# F0 D& M
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
: {( Q+ v0 [* E7 I: p& dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ }) K* n5 v& g6 ^% r7 a
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
0 J  P' \' c6 \; t1 M1 q  _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous, c1 }" n) M; ~# Y7 ~, M8 W
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ V, E, x3 f! q9 G$ Iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
; ]3 c( K5 X, ]! Yto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" V1 w" b1 w& ~/ }
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 u/ {6 o) O. w+ fyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 E6 ^  y) N4 T0 q! Q# Hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around0 ^; }/ a$ j! d
30,000 new households will form in the province during( G9 c& L* I' x! G' q: p2 y
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
7 O+ ~4 R" R9 j2 j2 tEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s7 R. ~2 D' S* L* x( ~7 N
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: u+ ]4 E( s/ c% U1 sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
/ U) W  y7 ~7 |8 V4 b* n6 l7 k: Whas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
" y# L+ t3 ?# r" Y+ nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 m" z4 I6 p1 G) K6 W
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& J* M/ I" L$ V* `  E( x* Vsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 i# @/ X0 E6 T7 K! u0 d7 N
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is, y$ m4 q; n& T" Z* Z( P' Y" F8 W
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
" ~, _/ W, N; U9 i7 B* M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 r5 v3 C5 `4 Y+ i3 ^# X' asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
$ f' Y$ o: C+ c9 {9 l5 ibuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 j& R& B& X+ A  }& U. Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: u1 b( P) E7 P5 _. p' Tunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 i! U  {7 K% ~" C9 runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest* W; P7 S% _3 i! y- @' x) V! X0 ~
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
2 x0 K( A" V- G& R6 _  r& J5 |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
0 |- k( A/ T& o4 i! t( @. emajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% w0 i' ?2 G( F7 r9 N6 u3 P; v
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
+ h( H( V/ |& Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 ?; J" P; x- M: uThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. I) K! E9 j5 Lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- W' U+ u' y3 U- x# b5 l  G+ v8 ~Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 T. h/ _. V- T: {% xhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced* J% B+ }: b' W0 E) q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale+ x- M; K, u! o7 ]" H4 I, y2 q4 m
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
3 @# c1 B3 C& B+ Q! X; l) Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
: ^7 x" E2 V* T5 e' `, zon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 h/ v2 R6 l- X% u! j5 v- gThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( p! E" G+ a. h1 ^# s
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' i. f' R/ t7 ^1 q5 s% x
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% g8 f% s2 U) b+ `# b4 l9 v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’# A; t( B6 }+ ?2 H) g% j2 R; b
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& q/ ~* l+ r) t, ?: B4 x
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%0 ^5 `6 t* @- e
leg down over 2009./ Q1 X7 T# f  }3 Z' s* U) y

! f, k2 K, k7 v- r" `0 V; D( u[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
* W/ S7 j, l, _- I) S9 |8 j! zAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
) ^' I# k) {  H翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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