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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta1 \/ p7 s L- V6 n
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' q& _- G6 y; T% T! W) R' C" i9 Xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ @, A* r% H8 y3 q$ m! o, x
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
% r& A. C! z" g6 C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
- n0 ~: Y) `' uformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ m1 z8 q' ~( C# J% b$ C
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
; K+ Q$ U( I! o5 ^4 T `# gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and; i/ w7 ]/ p, M
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous) V& x: q; t" f9 w/ G" b2 d
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
8 c' W [0 \" s1 y6 j8 d7 v9 t& `precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined. F6 R/ O, _0 a' f# Y7 m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
6 _/ i" e2 V( R: f0 u5 `prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 L. W, j* o2 R# K+ X! m( Z4 y
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 k6 X ~- |) Jhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
b! l* ^ z) b3 Y+ A- V' M30,000 new households will form in the province during
% K& m4 Z3 r6 i! h, e& g \2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.2 D: @7 o# b3 T% k( w7 c
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
. u y* G3 c9 R. a ^0 D. Shomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%( }4 w! d+ G4 O8 E4 g" E
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% t$ R2 O. I4 Q* p2 C; yhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
3 ~/ z- i i: X- s: Shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- r, a3 r' E0 C* G4 ?6 @
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging! |6 V6 V% _ z q# m
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. s& p8 ?' e) K( _, o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is* F" U; B" @6 z: `2 W
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
0 k6 T7 a5 \$ J/ W$ U( }1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* x3 P- X: k! l( W& U4 p2 Tsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
- W( i# [6 Z8 f. g- G* Mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in3 k, h7 r9 n* M7 z; }) o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 d, B: o/ q1 h/ x' S% J5 {
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
3 ^* Y8 V# W" j$ ~! `unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; K0 C3 D7 `4 f4 ~9 G/ Z: j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
5 a0 M( c5 L2 @) k9 @resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
- R" M [( ^ r* N: Cmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: z! C/ z4 Y% J0 J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
- u/ H- {1 s' h6 grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
6 H! E; F2 E& z: `8 o, v5 nThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# B) {+ V& R A* P3 \
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic., t H, ^+ p8 N" ^7 i9 d
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan/ w* H& P: T$ @- Q4 R! Y
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: e/ [( G8 _- N5 {/ Z8 G: ^6 R9 w7 C
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 i- m0 M6 b, {: `+ o" ~% H
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 t& _3 ~9 d" U" Q3 a2 B2 F" N! o
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 k; u, E! j _, y% y2 R* }on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable." r- J6 b- C. u# ?0 D8 f
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
; j# R4 ~5 I" d: Xresale price in February is evidence that past prices
* o. @' R" u3 ~& Vexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 }5 u* j5 @ N+ k6 U/ D
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- u2 U# J5 f3 S
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" }4 d2 ~: n5 i/ BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%; q9 `7 D" @# j; S$ c3 ]
leg down over 2009.7 e0 [1 ^$ ]! o* x: O, C
5 A: o$ W3 t! D: w[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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