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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) Q0 D0 J6 b! Q
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 p+ y: `6 P" S# Z
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: Z2 ^( T1 j- d6 L
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; ^" D, K5 D0 C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( ^$ a- |) X4 q6 |
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# g6 ?" e4 o( ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,! _0 D) ` y# f( M/ {- h0 z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& @9 c2 i8 N9 e7 }' Q6 | k4 ]may even cease completely during 2009. The previous& [7 E% K1 F2 b. a
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ q6 R1 m7 n: }$ w5 Sprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
5 v% w$ K9 e0 Bto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) C8 g" c( k; K/ i7 o7 w; yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
: j4 u3 n" C% L$ P; E" v S( iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* V E& j N% c8 |8 M
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 Q6 H4 ^) N# j6 b% E' A
30,000 new households will form in the province during) Y" F: `0 I3 Q6 f+ }6 A8 T
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" ^" S8 o$ x# ]# qEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s1 O% y( d- D4 X" e
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 m8 E" v" N3 N& ?6 A/ I
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
, `1 n( @! [0 B# D. B( Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( l6 c. H, R' ^4 b7 S7 {( M+ ahouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
8 m* A6 Y5 h! u4 W8 Q, sduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging1 A! C }& p2 Y! S' w
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; [$ H9 z& K3 l% g) c1 ]. Zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is0 C2 s! R2 {; E. d2 G7 r: {
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 T7 ^4 v: R q# o/ h2 h1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ T! S K# Z) z4 Lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive4 v& M5 \3 c# P4 m; j2 ~: u
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
5 h2 m1 a! L1 a1 S/ F) b5 K+ u" ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* @# f U1 s0 P! c' i" ?& Z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
6 T) p1 p6 b/ y9 W# v, |unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
7 f- J2 @; i/ B+ |* `recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the% \! l' T4 S+ R9 q
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s8 e; L; A; I6 n1 v( r
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' s p4 L" f! ~' P# }' N3 E! N# ?
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 |( o* N- _6 f. N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 T$ K3 t# T' G( {: M' Z- zThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s+ ^$ h: z3 H) f' ~
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ t- U% ~ F+ V% t7 EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
+ c4 e3 L0 V/ S/ K& m% R3 \housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% T, v2 s$ S/ m+ A5 V- {
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 C: R+ n: i) I; ^prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ K+ \ b; u" B4 n0 W8 M5 |, X: Qthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 r8 e; r3 z R; |on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.3 A- e2 G/ V3 I5 q# ^: Z+ b
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average8 \( U( {/ y+ Y3 T: q
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 v% q* b9 g( G8 F m3 i/ @exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& |/ X; W1 B. ]% \( q) b1 G& Phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’1 A- E$ V$ j ?3 V3 q* X6 N
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,+ f4 e6 }5 N5 q; h9 Y4 K
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
) y A* \. c; a/ A' C+ H3 pleg down over 2009.
5 u& Q2 l6 X4 o B
' ~5 R" k" S# U+ H. J/ A9 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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