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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 l x7 d. _# s
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 } n3 O, [5 n4 d/ Q* xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton9 F5 ^$ [8 y9 Q, \- l
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
/ k! e6 X8 z; j# ~2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household) T1 O7 l5 F% T1 @
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
5 c4 _9 L0 i3 c: ]) i2 ofrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 j. N( k! F* L/ Z+ P5 O+ ?
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and m( T& ^/ y0 h( ?9 o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ ?+ `6 ~" e# J' e
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
6 F5 h0 M& P( R( Nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined2 [. J: e9 l( K6 q: F! ?
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year" r4 b5 r6 J! _
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this* n4 O) G) c4 F* n
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ i% e0 n- M, U: ~9 C* j2 {
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 x* S0 M/ D# j9 A8 J5 H- ~7 S30,000 new households will form in the province during3 o: t! y/ E, v- _% d
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.8 o! M7 m" E* y" \8 Q' M b4 f0 ?1 }" b
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s) I% C& L, @9 H1 I! k4 T+ B5 `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%- P' ]2 {* B0 u; H, J! z
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& D. p9 d0 ^5 Z' [' i. x9 E
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
! t+ {. M! A- G; s2 U& B5 K7 \8 dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 r4 S3 y3 j# `# ?# C
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging/ E( Q: l! j. u1 |9 R* D0 ^. w
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories: g5 Q" \' Z# Q' D4 I1 E
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 Y; o& p# v0 x; {, J& u+ j/ gexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of" S& U3 O @- `" }, l
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a! h% c- `( z' `4 j' T, S
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive( @4 c4 A1 B% W: u' E/ l: k
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& Y! s* g) h9 R" r: O5 m' }
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 z I2 j6 j7 o2 [9 {/ Z" J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; u. k5 B7 D" P% Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) m) Y. Q8 w* E" u# {" h4 J0 U% N0 v, c& l
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; S8 X6 ~7 [0 r4 S6 Q/ hresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
5 w& Z$ R: T x/ Kmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
8 X, N; `1 B: j* \1 t) \# tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ {1 ~2 v2 ~' k7 \
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ m5 c. Q# S2 I: L. O, D# u$ ]
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
- Z& D/ t5 F5 S! K' S" o) Fboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.8 K& t: M5 {- p' X
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
7 _- {/ g/ K( I( s( Thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 w" W x' ?' k; Q4 S. t/ trelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale0 r ]3 T2 B& G) b
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
- _+ y: i9 Y! G4 F, O0 ?though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners; \) O* C! {: F7 q7 t, J
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.# c/ W6 p8 z9 C5 t# c) g
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
3 J. j8 }: p3 O3 ^! ?resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 ?" R/ |- B" v* v0 h$ mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
w, r* B1 U. p4 j8 P$ N7 N. Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
2 M' ^' v/ Y& R7 N% M* F. Rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
+ X7 Q6 k) ]% ~2 m* _% _Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ [# a) f+ g" a" B) Cleg down over 2009.3 M2 U5 R3 ^7 H+ X3 B9 E- J
T+ M' F/ N2 R! E+ ]$ E
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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