 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta
/ p( S7 K' r8 z* V5 c* QWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
$ [: y9 {' v. m2 B; {0 z9 Tboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton1 F, ^: T# x) t5 m$ l7 p
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 R/ @! [0 O* s/ E; q% l* j2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household- A9 J5 b* g0 S$ R
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 r8 v" d3 Z+ l. r4 k/ o
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# |5 d& k0 g' z' Y L4 q7 w
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 U/ C2 F8 h! q/ O# ?7 q: J
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous& u4 Y: s, x# z9 Q6 L3 o- f
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- q l# M( E. P! e4 u
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 C3 E: _2 C9 {' x6 dto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 k! {1 W0 h$ |/ X$ v* d1 zprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
( G: K9 P% b( J; Iyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,5 w6 N* [! f m
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& V% h' W" h) O+ Z1 m8 ?
30,000 new households will form in the province during
3 ~, u; K/ B/ s/ B" D2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 x' b, Y1 |0 P
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 L! G2 d. q0 S( K: w [homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
0 [5 X) q" ?. \$ z q$ qduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
( c' t5 g# \7 T' [has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
- j8 J) f6 _) x6 _$ w5 K& fhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
' j2 `/ _" l. p0 m% V" \0 r5 lduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging; b+ f6 _' M9 W: h
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' T8 _# b* U. @" |
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 R$ w% {: ]; o* a- ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
. C' X* R2 g' \7 B. _2 h9 r1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a p+ ?/ y& k8 I( H/ y( v; D9 T
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" d- V {6 {2 Y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- L8 t& {$ R/ n, j. ^' {# S7 I& _/ L1 btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* h1 D% _& Q. P) e2 u8 F8 `" N1 d
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" \+ i8 C4 @3 O8 _3 `
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
" k) A( o1 L9 X5 C9 ?recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the5 Q2 H3 {, X% H) u/ w7 J
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s* j0 {1 _) h0 @* p
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories! L, j! m' @+ A+ e6 W0 a0 w% j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled4 e3 t9 u+ _: X9 h8 O1 A) Y; Y. Q
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
! c j# E! b. k2 c4 Q4 c% z7 CThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s L9 j+ N- L0 y$ d8 i
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- ]# N( `! f. a% oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan. P; p' S8 ]- C
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" x y/ b8 d) ^
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 w9 z7 Q0 W- R) p0 f1 T
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: o* U$ V3 |0 ]- c* J
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: l" g% ~- }* @$ ~1 R: @* K
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, ?0 r& P$ J# K+ ^1 rThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ v$ \1 H4 \* b. r& p
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# s& Y% W Q, f- ?' O* `
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
% v$ g+ r2 T* r# v5 u! J, l1 Chomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’; G# e7 A# I2 _% o! p {
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,: F+ ^! m5 v" V& V" T0 `% [
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 q5 z8 v& z; ~6 U1 B- `leg down over 2009.- M( `! a* v, B* U7 U! C3 E
0 |! w2 e* w# A, I2 w
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|