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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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4 ]2 P  ~9 C6 Q6 a9 ^The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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8 i% ]8 W2 i8 t7 f; m$ S0 f4 y# UNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.$ ?& e/ t! Z' j* m2 _

1 {% G- _. x6 R3 p. O4 t3 T"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. : k- g; y3 G& S. N) Z' H0 T) ^

! Q& F4 }: i& F! @; oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.. M' q7 b# n2 N/ X) g& e& E/ m

! g: z+ s# K; PMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. . T) p  c3 ]! }, ?5 y; G. D* d6 m4 Y
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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; Y  |! [1 P( {; W. g" oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,& X% x& ~) a& ]

: Y( V8 I' u5 `/ l" {0 K[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
# l9 |, c# u4 @& O& | 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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$ u( t& `+ ~7 x$ E. a0 i" m[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
) S; d- n. r9 `: N% e跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
  B5 y+ y1 ~8 a) P  z嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
. r0 ~+ W9 Z) \$ VWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its9 U: o* X' i; |+ B" t
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
+ F% w* U5 m  J# U: K3 b3 ware cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" R! C6 C$ r& N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household$ p6 ^# J, Z1 d+ L' n) @: Y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* ]  A& y9 T9 {+ b8 R
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,7 m6 ?" {" b+ W: H; V8 R) L  ]
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
% |! k. G; T3 C5 h3 cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
' c; K) Z3 s0 W8 npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
) r, X) k* Q( X/ F9 Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
# j  A$ o1 u7 hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
  K! n- e& A1 d* uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! u  d: Y- w4 L) ]  r* I" Uyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
% a4 K+ E; X% khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
: A& e; j% [: C% w( D, D30,000 new households will form in the province during8 _0 R- T7 a8 G; b
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.$ ?% p  `( k8 I7 |4 M
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s2 V5 Y& }; B- m7 p1 N
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
/ x& J$ O; A+ K) z# w' O/ \+ Zduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta0 a  K" a3 ^4 @  x
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
4 v/ f, x2 F) ]1 N2 Q9 o# ^+ p' Khouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 ^% H& k0 |  ?4 H
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
6 R, {2 v1 t4 e; I6 k: [sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
# a" s7 i- r1 Z( E" g* t1 Xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' B% \+ k1 @4 v; t" p5 y$ ?excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& `. n9 ^% S# y7 T3 [/ o) S; _1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
* s4 i) j; k& P2 H$ d+ ~) K$ @sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
  `6 c3 k- C4 a& w2 Pbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
! V- M* d9 F$ N. Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* r( i5 o- G. `6 s4 o7 ~+ q  m; J
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 C; @5 S6 p, b* C& B) nunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 T8 x' q, }8 p. g4 j+ Z' ?$ t) z
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. q; X; R* A1 U. Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 R8 t& Q( H% j' Z# x
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories3 \2 Q+ E' }1 k
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
* q  G/ \$ N& v, X5 J; p, J# brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.. P" S! ?) ~) ^  w' U. ?
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 B) q. y- Y2 Hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.% F) Q# S6 P, m0 ^" c8 k
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan3 Q9 @* p! ]& k+ ?
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' h) T5 [; p2 d& H1 j/ M" `relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  |& W' j2 t' M# J1 Wprices substantially eroded affordability and, even" n5 h) g2 u% k) X, j, J4 ?9 j4 D
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
1 f% @/ o- R7 t; E& {& A/ p1 e2 Yon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.5 C( h6 E. U% E+ ?
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
9 K0 }8 ~6 x, d  Presale price in February is evidence that past prices) G  i( [  Y% k3 W' z2 k
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 {0 F3 _) {+ v0 l! x( e) o6 J
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
, b$ b' s  k8 z7 S4 tdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 J7 m" [1 ^, A3 j8 HAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 @2 I/ j- q, A1 gleg down over 2009.1 l- ^8 W7 W0 }% I
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 o1 x9 J2 w, n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
2 A8 E7 l/ o/ l4 `翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子" N3 X. H  w9 u
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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