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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta- y7 ^$ W% |! @
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 f3 ^- W: ^5 y% K# jboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
6 i' m7 o$ w/ F8 i8 {7 \5 Q8 `1 p" j7 Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to4 q- }3 }+ ?! E* j" l7 u9 r
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household" `4 \# j2 s) j/ E! G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 o, P" s& d6 w0 E: A d& n# i
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 Y8 E0 h; U9 a' P5 _! o
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and3 E7 H$ C' b) n/ Z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous0 y$ }) l, w) p: M* C4 t }2 ]$ {! e) ?
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 u+ e% d' _! |4 a: zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined% p, W8 X5 B0 s' w" J7 b6 v( m# q% P
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* r! U, v- n8 d4 ^* n
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
9 `; W2 m& R- X5 c$ ~year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 L3 p; _ y3 t; n& z2 c/ @homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 U) u- G2 }6 o& G4 o7 U% N2 h
30,000 new households will form in the province during
" [: R& `6 y8 G4 y2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 q6 t3 ]4 e7 Q; ^# ?6 g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 Z3 z% u/ i& S3 d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 Q' g; Y2 r. h6 C
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
* n+ E& I9 n" t7 U" d% g* x9 Nhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new3 {3 a; Z2 ?! V; P6 ]
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. B x" s& G( c& V. |, O
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
" ?" ^3 C: M- I% t& [+ ~9 }4 hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories, m$ s& [: e+ I/ U( g1 @2 _0 A' M. a
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is. \, z* P& Z: a" o" h) v) q
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 @/ {8 W7 _% X2 i/ Z, F1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 t7 K/ G) L1 G! m3 l8 N3 X6 Jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive8 m& N: x1 [2 Q9 U
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ X# X* A% z" J. A* w C$ Ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
. b+ q$ L/ H" }) yunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! b- f9 E* ?$ [$ u
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" U8 A$ V% \5 S+ C# n
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the y; o( a0 v. m, c4 k' k9 N
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s3 n6 g/ T6 _) R7 I! M- [
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories% Q4 I# q/ H6 n; T7 W! b x0 y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, y. o; y, _ j
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.) `$ `% H3 g* V1 u1 c9 q5 F
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s8 ^/ p8 {/ v; j4 _5 w! [$ ?/ S+ ]+ h6 q
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' C6 q/ q0 S( Y- E) \Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
: s( Z; w- ?+ F6 r& s: G/ I; thousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced7 E* D+ ]7 l7 L0 S
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale! u6 o' w# M, Q
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even* f G- u7 U* V u
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
; x# |" |2 |. i, P: \7 o! hon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 b; B1 c! N1 y1 T$ Q4 D
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average$ s$ w+ @' \! H/ d0 {* _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices" Z% f% L. z$ `9 _& Z. y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( l5 ]5 S: W6 s: O. T) p
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) u$ H! _; N* t' L, n! Mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 A9 A# V. i' C" v) b: s2 e: N
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%9 }3 l0 L- R, d/ A% A! g4 g
leg down over 2009.
. N* z/ z1 I. P8 d, u" c, k; w0 P9 H5 J
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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