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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
- Q2 j8 V; W/ FWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its X1 _, \. r |5 X8 p
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton* i) @. F; B0 V: ]+ R3 i
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 I: @$ x, c8 T, t, E% {3 L2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. d1 R% H$ @$ J* N: gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- ?- A& E$ k4 n) `! w7 r1 hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,4 E( Y* X! ?. ~0 W! E; C. c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
. Y/ f7 k0 n, R2 y9 L! t, Smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
* R' ?& S- X% Fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# n4 m7 v( S1 p8 c* P
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined* m( i+ C; d \" [
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 s# a; b- u0 V/ J6 c' ]: S% ]9 J6 mprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
?4 w/ w; Q. O) dyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& _: f6 N* M- u1 ~: Z/ k2 H' o
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around* O4 F9 [4 S" R
30,000 new households will form in the province during
5 O- J0 W# o1 T) U% _2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
% T0 K$ _) K1 v: v1 d. T0 M: dEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 f7 I) o6 W6 F' [
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 L$ h2 _ I5 k6 J+ p+ Hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ X, w4 L: ?' Z* N- \# A2 Jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; z3 q3 H! t% n3 e# f9 M2 Q; y; n1 ^
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
7 J$ d( `6 p! p B2 s- Yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
. C/ _* w" p: R0 \" csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
' n$ I7 |9 T8 O- B! K4 oclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is/ R! J; j# w8 \# i5 c" w- y8 e
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of! i8 h* m; p/ x; f9 S+ o
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& t; k+ E0 {2 H2 x! P5 z& w4 Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive" f& T) s5 j2 |# ~$ h$ e) |: ]2 y
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
- j0 p& r# P @% M0 W% J+ ztwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
8 J$ d/ r# S( o0 G* K0 m$ p# `unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
# ?$ V5 z e. R& Q% Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
' ]" A, P: H4 ]5 u! m, v1 wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
; c% P7 d* c9 t; [+ ~' f5 uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& x- m9 F" L" r6 \* l, q/ z% ~major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 y3 c& ]# R' u/ g- ^
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. k5 e4 J, r) j5 \" Grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 n* K( n8 s. |/ DThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s6 w% f3 C( l- _" C' \, `) E
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ j% {# x# i1 _8 l, vAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan( n" T* y q) E! n% y+ k$ U
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 y/ i8 U6 \# y/ t) P6 J; w$ s/ prelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
+ f) p3 ~& n- Q0 zprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& e% z5 _ @0 y0 y2 r, F1 Othough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners o# d( g( ]6 u* [3 j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* o, X6 s+ q5 o- t* e' B/ T; q# \: ~
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! }- F5 W" N8 W: K* {
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
+ e, z3 E9 M& X2 c, D& m/ Xexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 e8 k3 C, u2 I+ g! n' M7 Vhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, d6 T+ V0 t( M$ p' n
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: s% k N0 o; H# DAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%/ T/ p: S1 v2 H. Z- h7 T
leg down over 2009.8 h# W* }! w* W/ |' c; z( S
0 a" s" o5 x( T
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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