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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta: N+ r& B4 L3 u) ^
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 h* |8 Z) _9 b& ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 G. u% A" W3 {+ E" o/ ^are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to* p6 [$ J2 x& F% S* M d/ u
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( b9 B+ o2 t" b: X
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided6 h: ?8 {! B5 G
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
$ @1 `: V: e1 u2 Qthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# w4 h1 K5 b& n/ m, Cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous3 A" C- L7 }* ]( a3 \9 N
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' Q2 B; o6 _; c8 m7 Y+ N2 e/ @precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined8 p4 v- d! x9 v$ z% q
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 V) ^/ k( a- z+ Lprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) c& t9 ~* e q5 ?. V
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
( r4 k- W! w, A* H8 Z- e+ q$ Ihomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around& C) i9 C. o$ T& N6 ]& B
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& H8 e; p* `- @9 D+ d2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.. U. A, V. [+ X s: u. j; f
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
C/ M: J* C: @6 Thomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
f) i& \, Z' Q" Y4 nduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta$ P [2 \$ e2 r( ]1 r
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* v5 S4 X' `! C4 bhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals8 L$ q4 Y) _! Y _* ~4 d
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging- a0 S" _, {1 i {& _3 J
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. L8 l5 f8 [$ S/ p' Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 ~9 N! F3 P6 y1 M; T+ d, Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
& r9 f: ?* c8 Q0 n1 f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 h3 ], P. ^( p3 Isales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( ?* E. z0 ~8 |buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
# F3 t( r T! e$ etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in) g' K, a2 P4 g9 |. z
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
/ L5 b: `3 R. Y2 sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* g' L9 C1 p7 |- drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
. A9 L. b7 {/ e6 U, c( d7 @0 ^resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
$ f) ~# s' g1 _+ Mmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( ] x- s$ b5 M6 y6 Zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ l+ G+ G- p- d, f* c4 p0 P
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
/ J& b# L+ q2 h8 `8 H3 }The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
7 l- a' {5 `9 Y Oboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 ~. a. N' K8 d8 \% |2 CAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan) u; f1 M2 ?+ H5 ?; R, |2 b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 o- ? [' C3 a; u9 {+ n
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
, L3 i& h& H P6 Q) qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even5 p5 O- d7 S) t
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
) y& U. [( d2 g; h7 |$ don average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) L4 ~1 z2 x) N+ z
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
1 s$ U9 N9 v$ j& Z; s7 m1 @: ~( Rresale price in February is evidence that past prices
( Y% z* L2 _9 w3 F0 Zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 a I% u8 }6 W1 Y
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' F/ `# a5 U7 Zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,' A3 z @$ a* j, @9 R
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( Z- u! H" R/ n9 g. Q, n! s) C
leg down over 2009.
0 l5 I, m- {0 h1 K( M$ u* p& t# }: [* V; D, }% v L, N
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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