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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ ~8 ?: h# W3 J3 ~8 ~! |, t
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its) M8 |& }+ _) M% ~
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
3 W, n5 ^: i' R: p/ K1 [are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to" g$ d0 O: `- a" ^4 S+ N5 y8 T
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
2 o8 {8 f% m/ B1 h9 i8 Tformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
' X; B6 K+ a" f" |9 [; Ufrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
1 I. B1 x' {* b" N9 @the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
" D2 B3 @" Y& Q: H7 v: G p Mmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" n( h& |; Y+ h7 W1 npace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed: G: B# |" s* g5 K1 |
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, D# \0 d8 W; H2 q) u+ Xto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 @0 {4 @' |: I% C n; J: A5 J9 s& C" ^prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 I8 m3 M1 H9 p" k$ {8 K, a
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& |* e3 G% }4 n# m0 z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
9 T8 ?3 b) ~( R30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 U& h% l6 }3 {: J2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! P0 P% z6 Z9 M4 W9 Q+ REven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
3 f" |7 l4 o' _. dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%. l; T) U& {3 J. F! O( x% |
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 d- x: T( v! P
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 }" X* o8 Q+ i& B% c$ X ?households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals: A9 `' s4 K2 P) g) k
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging$ K+ U2 W; p5 B) g* R
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories& N2 y7 z7 ]8 F5 X8 y/ k9 x( ~
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, C: F8 |" N# \excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
; e' f" h F' O1 X/ p3 r1 G1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ h: l; M3 p% @! `
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
: Q9 p8 S' w9 J' e& F# h' ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, t) G1 r+ n* |4 i7 N. Rtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
0 d( U8 S! ?, K, N0 x. Runsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
K9 @ t, i. U( B* Q( Cunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
M8 L1 c7 c3 b& K$ F3 g7 Drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
$ H/ s9 y3 M. V& h0 q: {resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; g0 T4 |! T: c V! c
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories; H' M( r$ W8 }: C8 ]+ i
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled; x1 ^5 \' E9 T0 N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 D* v; F+ M4 z% sThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# \5 z+ ]! ], w! d5 ?7 A% v
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.1 S5 d, q0 R$ X: @
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan: D( I2 u! L1 ]% c( f! K
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
?' f: G) U4 Z$ _" P2 f9 ~5 u1 Krelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& L1 ]; @% `) G( G" y1 |: U& ?8 p
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even, h, E3 o' ^* A( e5 Z3 ]+ w! P8 r5 u
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners) ?, y7 Q" w" H1 f7 v
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( V6 `! U* J8 A1 ` h
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
: y7 @/ O* T2 q# dresale price in February is evidence that past prices; N! ^' s/ h9 o4 A% f4 v3 z
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
& Y$ A) ]% S( U( {2 qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
y7 w1 s; b9 ?4 \deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 Q' x: m' u5 ? p8 W3 A
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
, n2 ^! D7 f N# Eleg down over 2009.4 j! p0 H2 t% @8 y
7 ?6 Q. I. c/ q3 Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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