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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ h" G: L& Y L& Z, B' C% a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
7 G# U8 q# X8 u# eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ c9 j& n- j' F" V/ _: t, I' C* r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
( @9 W# k" w+ a5 Y8 t( b; Y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
; s' k: o" `) m6 O. Mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
' R/ _/ [& G/ l9 }2 G' E) @from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
7 N$ p/ {2 T r. H4 f# pthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
9 X. N: X7 d' d7 Qmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ a/ N! r7 e2 [& bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: x0 e& C q6 ]! P# B- J/ X" Y, Bprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined$ w1 D9 m) w3 y t2 a0 H6 a" e
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: ?' j+ j' L% ~- Pprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; V; x5 k5 f# b6 X
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
8 A3 y( s7 F; ?# K- @( ]& P! I& Fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around7 B; X- U% j: `+ `$ ?6 x7 J/ u; r$ U
30,000 new households will form in the province during( j2 v7 w( i- Q
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
# [# d. x% }( ]3 J3 w0 PEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; w3 W7 L! E( R4 ]homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 l, ` Q& H! Q5 ^% n9 xduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' h7 ^/ O: l' l2 G5 @1 m
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
% K% ^7 S0 V1 X# |households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( Q, @) C" x' s) V2 v( V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 I4 K0 H) O) B. u/ V9 F3 psales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories0 `* Y5 d$ n3 R( |3 t: ]
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is( K, L: L, k) c! g
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1 F1 ^5 @' B$ f1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% F: t! a/ j# f, ?+ R1 b
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
1 g! e7 i! F( Y5 f! h" Vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 _7 a" X* g+ J$ btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in& q1 @1 v: q! M; ?0 q6 ?/ ?
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
4 A) G4 o+ |/ [* |# f4 Q0 U8 @0 Funsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
& Z, Y( k/ B6 o krecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
T& w' j: m7 V3 n# jresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% C: a8 ^+ W! s$ Q2 P% r% h
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories8 a! r; w+ V" y8 k) O$ Y
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
" m7 t7 |# R9 d4 ~rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 ~' f7 p! m: R7 RThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s7 A- b9 l# y- ~; V
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* |4 g$ S8 Z9 Y- nAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan \) b$ ]: I: m6 h3 Q. F7 l, o9 S" b! i
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
& Q+ [ {7 a) r+ x' {relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( v% q4 n9 j8 N- O! ]. l2 R
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
7 d& D0 o' J* ~/ Sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. V% j( e* b! p5 F
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.. y, U+ C" r) Q. x! n. X5 x5 d$ q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average6 H2 w7 Z' j0 k4 l1 s0 l ?9 B
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
: Y' U7 `/ v1 a/ Nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
: b! p, { e3 i* w3 x2 }! thomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’8 b4 t& B9 J* e" U
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! O7 x: ^. Z" `$ ~Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%! k) E9 H! l0 g' D! F% i0 d
leg down over 2009." ^ D' a# i5 x* Q9 W3 F
W- D! K$ V; r$ D5 N, v
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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