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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
4 o6 _$ Q- y" A) W" H" KWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
3 r: w0 X% P- ~3 ~: u9 Y% B$ C& Vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton& W) ], U* A1 a# _
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; k) i- G. \9 ]% w& x$ ]2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 J1 a' `7 N F* `/ e/ F: E Sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 f" X2 k- D; R7 n
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ } p( b! c) D. X6 [the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
# c. v3 X; h: Y! G6 wmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
: @3 n3 @- ^; T: |5 E4 x$ m, \pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 V6 @) g6 H2 ?9 Q" S# o) B& Jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
3 |7 } l: T, w; z# P4 Fto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year1 |4 H" j* t0 X
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
* E: |( ?: t7 \# s) Gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* [6 |; T3 V# j+ w- c5 ~! a' zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ ^( W# p2 ~; ~: i: u30,000 new households will form in the province during
) Z# \/ o+ v- ], s/ i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# K; z2 ^( w6 f. E3 ?8 H8 i+ v
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 {; F4 j) u8 @$ D2 ihomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%& D2 _, \- X, `( H, _1 [; H
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta" q/ f6 q% J6 }) F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
: a: l2 n0 K2 V5 J7 hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
% g1 ^5 ]4 B( v& Oduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging0 M( i s' m" }& O1 f c) Q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 W7 f, ^6 b6 m1 \: S, O; G8 a
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
8 \* @ g, X2 V7 w+ A6 Oexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
% ^3 u* h" N( o! a$ W: m1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
2 o5 n* _- \$ O& jsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& g6 T* X0 Q3 o* r
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in I+ I( p& V/ O* @, q/ Y/ Z! m
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
: E/ g* G" Z4 p, a2 j) `; funsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ ]6 @! E0 H+ m3 U) _unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest) e3 ` z1 c2 E& d0 t% \; m
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
* l- b( r; R8 F- Bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
: r% j! ~6 k* w& [major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories+ \- @6 T; q$ V: c' v7 K
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled" Q v* K/ k A6 A0 [" S6 F! ^
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 b( q3 `# _ K3 }- yThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s, N' x! |$ i1 o0 j: F. s: Y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
+ n3 }5 T! D4 e, ~/ K9 T, yAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
( x+ b0 R, ~, X1 _& D9 ?3 ]: `housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced' _& E( L( J( d. Z! G
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
$ B/ ?! p+ X; t) ~1 ?$ H, ?% oprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% L' O. S; M% t" cthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners# Z# N$ V7 ^8 T, k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; s' b _+ d+ Z% sThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 I$ q9 X7 q" ?! gresale price in February is evidence that past prices
3 Z5 L2 I. }, T S" ?exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 }7 V8 Z. E* P8 T" s( @+ Nhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 f$ M& \0 P B+ [* [1 Y$ hdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,1 l- y) ]1 n' f; n5 D- p- U
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ d! U2 X! \1 P7 Mleg down over 2009.
0 \$ E: S& R$ ?& f
' I- B! ] p' m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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