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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta! U* t2 n+ B% T7 P
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its0 ^ Q; W& L1 [& m$ x6 k
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
# t: q+ y! v" D- p2 C2 xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
: z( ?8 O% |% Z- T* N2 ^" t, n- F2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household; g* o! }4 y; Y
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 c( N* |2 o7 ?: O1 @
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,, ^3 u5 x; v- ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
& Y) B8 W6 [7 {may even cease completely during 2009. The previous- L: M- R9 a0 I3 X9 M
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 [ @' Q9 i6 [5 b' Eprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 ?2 V' v* h8 j8 ^
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# ^) h' s# @" b& fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this \9 e& k2 D1 s+ `
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 b; a6 h8 ^$ P5 |2 |4 lhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ n$ h0 ?& _( l, ~30,000 new households will form in the province during# G( X8 H% n$ \/ b8 S: q
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
) g4 Z; j! ]# nEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) V% @" Q8 N5 [# dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%" \8 m& y6 `) F% t- c( O5 Z' z5 |
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
' F2 V" a: j& ~& w: x$ j4 L! Rhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
6 \. v+ Y# l3 ~- ohouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: N P9 A' J( ]$ Uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ m6 z; o# R3 M ?0 Y' H
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories' r% l) \& E! ^* A. _7 v
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 Y( Q2 H% ]7 y: h
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 v! _& l3 Q0 ^) V1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# }" R3 d8 u4 v+ c! A+ a2 _sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive7 t) O: r1 V) @' w9 L& R2 z# g4 v
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in; R$ c/ c/ H( ]7 o9 n9 e
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ Y3 L# V8 k9 E l2 ]! Nunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7479 V U k' o6 r
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 z" K! B" i8 t2 h( Q
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( e* |0 s# N. a- T( @0 P: a
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
7 t( o# h- b: ?0 Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. y$ B5 V- Y+ K8 aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
+ n$ I0 c6 E8 d- x' H3 hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.* ]0 L! @/ I- r4 }% Y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
. Z0 J6 ~& ^$ u! p3 G/ Qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
* E: ]1 V# ]4 w" F- x4 M+ o7 IAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 c' w+ P9 w# h, mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ N/ w5 ^2 p$ V4 E4 {/ I
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale5 h4 T, u; e2 B* M; v1 n
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
4 ] \, G+ S/ ]4 n8 D8 k( Lthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 r T, J. k4 P* d0 H c/ d
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
- U2 L+ f" a. Q$ j0 r6 V' yThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average) E0 d2 K; Q1 l' ~' O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
2 ~' A) V, ^7 V5 V2 z5 g3 kexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove1 {$ M- S m: j
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% |0 w. E6 F2 z8 U- I; K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
- r2 \1 R: E! {3 F/ F2 l5 e5 s8 eAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
; P- a% ~# W& _1 {; b2 Rleg down over 2009.. U" ?4 s2 `" F: Q; u
8 y2 G" S3 n: e/ O; u. x[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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