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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta u) y! a, I9 `
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
4 A: e ], M' d0 u3 q2 Iboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 U2 z& b9 z1 S/ ~$ h
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to t7 I+ [# z5 r4 s1 d" {) m
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
7 N% J; s- e9 B h# Cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 o7 D5 i. H; `: X3 f' ]4 Mfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,$ L+ e7 Z B. N. ^8 [( ? ^3 b
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
J" ?# w5 ^6 ~9 `3 J Umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 e( M7 F2 p7 E4 Z7 m- K) [6 b1 y R5 Rpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed; c, I0 Z4 Z9 y
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 L! [. F5 S! c- t% A- K
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
7 O* d% @2 e% G {+ }prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
" N9 C9 f9 L* y: Y3 nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,( p# @4 N4 ^. h$ Q& |
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ l4 O/ G6 O r j: M- ]7 n30,000 new households will form in the province during7 g7 S* u% [/ Y" X& `
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
4 q/ Y- G! ~; U0 F, T. CEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* c" G6 K1 _6 ` |( j- C
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, D2 z7 ^/ J+ Q+ Y
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* O8 u" C% f) H
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& m# P9 H( S! V* f- x- D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
" X" N4 Y, `6 A3 L1 Oduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging3 g. B& U; K" @" D* J
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, w! y8 b' Z: i3 C0 ^! Zclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is2 {- m8 m. S0 c. A, L3 h1 }
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
, t/ @) ^/ K F" @ J1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
, w+ }. X# W8 Esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 L: b" ?' M( ] m; Abuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in- [+ _/ W/ \5 @2 n& `
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
- Z/ e* S- x, J9 b. R8 L- ^unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 a- w3 G G2 ~. S; v
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
8 G- j5 f' I6 l7 ?) Grecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# ]* {# T/ o6 ^+ C- _
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
( `+ ^5 v7 B3 t# `; w# ^2 \major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
/ m& X# o8 @! P/ x7 tof new singles, and, with demand having cooled' h% t* @" a4 x) A- S$ \0 Y6 |
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.0 }, E; R6 c" W# T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
* p$ l1 M' Y% C" sboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.2 J, d/ V4 l. y. v
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 _9 K, j7 O1 Q1 H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
9 q2 I# k3 r0 R/ }. Srelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 [5 I! r8 b# [0 S, F
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
* D$ z/ I- E% x6 F2 g0 _0 p- C4 Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners+ g0 M: ]3 r( E1 [( L" j5 @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% @0 ^5 J& z! R6 d' h8 tThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average9 Q2 A* [/ n4 Y3 r% D
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 q& I! h& o( ~* |, Nexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) u, v. O' l' t) W
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
8 d! W4 t7 H1 k9 P1 mdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
8 S$ w' D- h7 _1 a/ MAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%) O5 L) @# K* e" M" n; l& H
leg down over 2009.# D- l1 L# S% M. E
4 f' v! Y+ E& t5 r& {1 N9 K5 F2 ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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