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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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% W8 k7 q/ h% ^$ H( M/ lTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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, N5 M. q# j6 L"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 6 I0 Q* ^: R( T
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; |; w, C8 H) p: E' k6 r$ v' A
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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' G  X2 E1 l( W+ K"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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3 Q5 l% |3 ^% z3 j  w6 L% fMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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9 q) ?: z. n/ T) P' Uhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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( u9 P  ~2 b' w. e4 mTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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) s/ @% C. Y, C3 Q, |( Y, F[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。& s& {4 X. L" C0 j) q! G3 t
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
, m' y% V% _, ]/ F7 A* m跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了: l3 h6 y- T) a* k* t# x; _
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta- ]  T4 R; E) Y* @: j
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its& t6 X) s! r1 p% j  I
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton8 r$ g3 V- k4 \9 d- M# _
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
$ o/ N% D- f2 ^: l; N2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
* b3 @; o6 R/ h5 q" y3 \formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
. [7 d; M) _$ [. Y$ U1 O& wfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% d5 h2 b* T( V- ^& L8 X
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and/ F. a9 K# u. N6 _  E9 m, H
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 l! S8 Z; {+ G* p! W' d' E! bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) R6 h4 c. T$ D6 y% b( o
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
7 J$ T& u1 N$ m& P- l. O- hto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, h) w* K* l% I! @( M  g+ b$ ?! Tprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ r) w# ^4 u2 q9 S. {
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
- u; o8 e/ D( ?, n  `0 Vhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
0 \+ B' ?5 }$ u8 F3 Z+ t1 z30,000 new households will form in the province during& L. O) O  {8 Y7 C! m2 _2 i% Q; L
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
9 X6 ]9 A' F: E" V8 v* F$ C1 Q$ t9 ~Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
/ B# E/ N0 L& S2 khomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%+ o8 I8 z; V! s" H: d& k
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta! s, x% h2 a! _6 j: y8 ?! D
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
5 `) p9 R* A5 W- c( t! hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
, W1 V8 }. N* J! B2 ~8 W+ Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 P6 K; E' v( f6 asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ m5 p9 h8 E  c( T  R8 J6 o1 W
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
  }, Z0 c" G% c; j8 eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of# l6 p' i4 i3 k7 \
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ H& B2 I5 S. x5 r) p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
7 C# u# Q  `* L6 v) Jbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 _: E/ R7 c0 b% k# g% P
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
) _- K- V) q9 j( `+ ~* c" i' Punsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747- J1 A8 ]$ E( ^7 f9 [4 J
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest3 c% i& [) S$ X, `! }5 c" [
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 k' g, D. t- |9 k+ t5 ~( q1 C( ^
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 s( o2 j* q4 r; {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories. m5 @6 C. W. }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled3 @+ {6 i$ V1 H$ D/ U3 n; S' K
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
- L* c! W" w# W: PThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
2 s/ f. T9 e) I& Q8 z1 @+ ~( [boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' Z6 p. _6 B! _Although income growth was very strong, Albertan- k" g. r, I% E& N; b
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced. Q, \: P  x# ?4 m
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale6 H6 S) X$ A# x( M
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even( f- X$ P; r+ {% a  s
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
- j* P1 y, j" O% Q8 Q) K5 jon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! n( E2 V3 @- J5 ?$ @
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 b( f4 R( V! H. l& wresale price in February is evidence that past prices
" t# ^3 m1 v9 y9 k% M7 |# zexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 _- k; U( E; [: k; Q5 X/ C$ rhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
" V2 S5 Q( R& @6 edeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,3 b2 M) r% A5 P; s" \3 {0 U6 ]+ z, ?
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
( e; Z) x7 x2 M8 t% y* d' `leg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 g4 i8 N& l  \! z$ h* r
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
" Q# N" P( _- V  X$ s1 x翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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( a: q- _8 h# Z5 q$ K" l; U/ o! Phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments9 {8 }) n( T5 V# v; K4 W% [
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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