ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.

! n) U/ E5 }4 w* ?0 k" tTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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: z! G: F" W0 h- {* [" p; U"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.

  |  I% E+ }2 Z% {# n7 {"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.

4 C6 ~7 \& U( W4 a8 r# C+ xTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.

3 Y+ ~( h! l- D/ I' g/ M: OMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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  I# {; @* V7 y/ E# a! D, Mhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 n2 r7 X" B: ~6 u1 ~: X 再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
7 \! y* ~! {0 \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
( x  T! |& t$ bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
; q; t* G5 l( J$ W* H! A0 b2 v2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# [7 D% Y9 J4 ^  Oformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
: E& j6 {2 g- Bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
- t8 V. y1 d- {/ w# omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" J4 v# K% i. z8 Q$ @6 O( |3 vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
/ ?2 O. R/ K* c0 [prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 d1 H. l( {. f* j" k: ^6 u' L0 |- |year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
" n; |1 f: Y( b3 ghomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
2 a/ |  v7 h- I6 \+ c  N+ E2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
, U& w9 l6 ?2 G" a. Kduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ s6 b% u9 v0 S# E2 csales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: V; m# {- {, [5 A4 N5 i7 B3 Iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
( p. d2 n$ d5 p  b" ^0 Wexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ e9 v8 C4 O' G9 ?, y& dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ {1 s( \7 V0 _% hrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
0 O9 Q. e. w% k" |resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
4 X  V4 ]+ f* U4 r! ~- OThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ R; h3 @$ N# e1 Iboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 h! r/ A- j, H, O% c4 \Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) l4 T7 j7 C1 m% W6 z3 D4 vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, b! f8 g( d' W2 c  P  ~( xthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
  h) r' q) C2 H6 _' z  _on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
4 j& W, \/ p6 e- E$ z- A7 H0 Rexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
- _; V% v9 O* {  M' `" T/ jhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
6 ^& H3 @5 ~5 Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: g0 }& K+ j4 c, M/ `; p* TAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
5 ]& _5 h$ ]" c; I+ K4 uleg down over 2009.

[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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- `, h4 a8 Y$ k' V* ^[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing