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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta$ `# Z4 H8 x- L( w) q- z9 a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 j+ ^" k: ^ \$ Q: n" \8 n
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, L2 p9 e- N1 s" Lare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
1 p0 h4 @0 M6 x* y1 Z: Y t6 Z2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( X0 G0 G, ^; T, @$ P8 p# Mformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
/ c7 Z, x5 {& D- ^! }8 o' Sfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 n" _3 ?- G8 r6 E
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
! E/ a/ A. F$ Z% imay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
9 m. P+ L. f! s; _. ]- X- mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
+ f& @3 f/ X& s8 Kprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 k2 m$ I. t' _to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
# C3 x' g! S) U* Y8 hprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 l2 p0 m, R, V. @
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) j# c) [. b) Y' d Fhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! i0 F/ O& q) T) z8 u [7 J4 ~% x30,000 new households will form in the province during" m6 Z: o! K* R
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 `) E1 u; U) y, v" [9 n9 rEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
, y, H6 J* n$ w! V3 s9 u( ]homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%! e+ B# ~& q, b8 f6 o) P6 m
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta9 j3 f* E1 z0 x) j
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ n4 o, n8 ~0 h) l& d8 shouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals4 ^, I& w" r; ~; t7 A
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
8 E5 |. _0 d" y9 \5 i1 z& Y- d6 G' h' _sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* Y* h) V [* f! g s: E9 `% lclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is& ]! l, D0 L c Y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of ]1 l4 t9 n7 }
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ v' `0 H. d( P. _6 F8 ksales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive' R6 ^2 N; ]. V- z( r6 S' D* A
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
, T$ y+ Y) v; n; x( Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
3 k2 j2 `' F& [- h# Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7478 p- A7 ~: N( ]; p- [* A
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
6 f Q6 r+ p% o/ O& C; Vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the( D) l) A1 a# C
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
9 H; \2 h7 d7 [( G% q. j# Q5 {- L umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) [6 i3 V5 m3 q- D4 ]; V% P
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled, A4 c- V0 B1 s! c! P6 s E
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.. s! U$ V! ?- {/ ~: X; T+ e/ O
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s9 u4 @; X( e/ [
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
' y1 b1 ]+ s3 N, u0 XAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan2 p- Z; J$ w5 S! P6 c6 }7 \
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
4 c# [) V3 l' D) C$ H6 Qrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
5 y% h3 J- d( y T0 ?6 qprices substantially eroded affordability and, even' V8 @6 I2 M5 _* g0 P2 {9 m
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
G& Q6 Y4 x1 i0 F8 @on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.4 @7 W* g+ V* ]+ F6 y3 ~
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
, m* T4 |9 R) q) Fresale price in February is evidence that past prices+ y* d$ ^9 D. A1 ]3 M! J
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove# Y6 |9 V/ p2 h/ U
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
* K7 s( g2 ?5 [6 S. H7 Q* sdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! G1 }( n- G- h$ F- C4 W6 JAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
* m+ w6 G* c: R& n4 ~leg down over 2009.) Q- P1 q: f2 n9 w0 N ?: j+ y
5 x* u+ |9 X4 O- v# O; Y9 x4 P
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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