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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta" ^, O/ U4 Z6 }' S5 _) |! `/ r
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
8 |) f7 D% j- _( C! }1 hboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. d( @8 q' {; x0 Y4 |8 ~are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to0 t2 h7 E* j ^+ M6 X
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
. J$ C% R7 v1 ?5 S: ~formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 u+ j! D5 a$ ]* }5 x7 p$ m! y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,' j8 j; M; v+ w( b, R% o1 I
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 c3 g! J, K; {9 M
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous6 O( J; V6 Z" p+ v, \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 ]+ Q" H4 d. j( `2 iprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 M# g, @8 }8 tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year/ V3 Q6 x+ S& [
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
& w7 @5 o7 ?7 r: B$ v3 Gyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,/ k( ~6 O' x1 _0 ^
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# D; Z& [! C+ O0 ?" H4 c; C. Z30,000 new households will form in the province during
0 G' I' l" H1 r' z( E4 b. M2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.9 k C% `! `0 N, h) d
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
2 v6 ~4 ~& o0 z- R9 `: }6 S+ ?homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%; _, U* p: w4 G* S
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 @2 G/ A( h' q. f9 F4 a$ |% ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new) y! g4 i+ a; B1 v2 P
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals3 }: }* K. ?$ V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
/ e$ ^9 }% Q" T+ Fsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 Q" a; Z: T( D, M. y
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! a% i* j$ q7 o/ S- W$ d- F0 o
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ R- x7 v5 Y3 k) B5 J! c
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' I! N4 k. C5 X1 e
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive9 v. d: R- P3 H6 s& |2 |5 e X- h
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in! w+ y! F: O- e
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 n$ H( J( S, q! \" ^3 |
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747 b0 _% i1 ~+ b
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest7 Z; J! G) l y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
( A5 g8 A3 D0 f q+ K# Yresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" Q! K9 h( L* T0 bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories7 l V+ y' X2 G/ `/ ]7 O+ O8 \% M
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled6 f7 e6 ~/ K# W+ w- C c
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' [0 Y0 _- ?+ \1 Y
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s" U8 H9 j& j' V. e2 z8 l) T+ i2 Z
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
0 W6 s6 X% n9 v% z# w. PAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan1 b) o! Q% {5 y4 K5 d+ x3 r$ t
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
6 Q4 }" ?( N( K8 ?0 F) Srelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' p+ Y' b5 E3 {0 k" V; U. eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even6 D8 g! I; S$ | R4 k- k; R& I* }3 P
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
4 Y2 x9 A6 B9 r1 F& _ \on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
2 f% P+ \! O6 C3 CThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ G" B! l/ i* `' F0 e* M) w6 Nresale price in February is evidence that past prices% T- d. T; s1 ?3 A
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 m& Q$ N3 F9 X/ qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& o) \- b" p( \. f0 r: V6 h
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% N6 M+ r) ~; y% O f
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
' `) P5 ~- w2 t7 [ l/ H) r$ ^leg down over 2009.; i$ U/ {. _: S: Y
$ Q2 \9 |) `# i/ p: }& Q) @7 `[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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