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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta& s8 p) j# Z$ N. m
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 j5 I. z! T0 M8 U6 V' X( t
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 K) D" C' L2 v
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to( A+ h8 V A$ L. u3 ?0 L
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ f& g- _3 Z% z) J5 \! k3 h2 z$ Sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided% ~- O; G v1 p1 f5 ]
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
8 ~3 e2 A+ n& s* W4 R( A0 a+ k: bthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
6 {4 r/ j& a% h5 {- G5 smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous% [9 a/ [. Z, O
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed0 }) e9 g3 V1 R
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% i. d# U+ H4 p3 eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
, l4 l& o1 P1 I9 Fprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
! B S, ?6 T* g7 d: } Oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
4 t8 ?0 i) a3 @homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around: g* d( C" ]3 Z5 l; [6 q5 w
30,000 new households will form in the province during3 w+ d* b+ \9 [8 ^- ^
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
* L1 `6 e# w" |; _8 [Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
$ e- W- F4 ~5 U6 A6 \9 r9 I- Mhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%: F8 u% B9 i" L' J: D1 l5 c7 u
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 F4 {6 g4 u3 T- J/ Ohas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new; h- W) ^5 s7 b0 V* O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
# O3 f. V5 }- m& W- M% p0 {% o2 W2 d' rduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) E: t# |# J5 v) @7 m6 r) f1 Esales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
3 ?4 r4 c1 u) K Hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is1 i8 e# T6 T+ ]! M
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of5 i$ }9 W( w r# T
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% K8 C& u' {6 |% N' |! R1 l+ B: I
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
( ~: {7 b8 ~1 L& L2 y" Zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in1 U% g. R' V$ E0 E7 b" x
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in8 B/ L% Z4 a6 ?- s
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7471 \0 I( Z. I! x6 }
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 N* Y. U- {9 S, ]
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 M& M* W1 j- M6 [, G) [
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. F# A4 y+ E5 E) ?. M. u6 g; w
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( d! `& z2 O: @& n; p+ ?( C: Uof new singles, and, with demand having cooled* W# ^. H5 W; ~2 ?9 s3 J; p) w
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 v* w w; r9 L! Y. z; I2 i& v0 \The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s( u" F4 b! m: K0 o' K0 a0 G
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
9 H' m% o$ Q2 l! KAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 A; j$ \8 z1 t& _housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# P' K# V, r- u! Q
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& N7 R. B& U+ a; x, T3 Q& B
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
+ V4 b( U0 b' T& h9 O. Rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% y6 U% o) M+ Z& ]0 D Qon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
) P. b& Q' u+ Z4 d) m9 }The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
5 [2 U/ X- }6 s0 ?* I3 L7 u6 ^resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 s( Z0 @: z$ N: {, U3 g: r) Jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
6 u' ?( a3 l' O- V2 B! K" P, uhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’3 j5 o# G4 l: a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% L5 t: w. ^( d1 w5 g) N0 |
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
7 [8 Q7 c+ ~ E- a- Dleg down over 2009.0 F3 f- o2 N! X( o; ?6 ?0 F9 j
, k& z0 w; q2 x2 k+ b[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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