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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 u- G  i7 Q- e/ B: e

, Y7 l6 ?) x! H# GTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
" {- J# W+ Y0 n4 V5 \6 V: \& M1 @2 t9 z0 c! R8 y  R. b9 Q% W* W
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 U5 F  {4 S2 T5 A5 R' ^2 m6 m

1 T. {# W9 P( W! u+ q% I3 [  H( h"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ; ]+ g  L% W5 ?) v
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.; j( \. r- q6 [8 U( F0 U

& h/ I. Q/ V* U5 P  ?/ h6 PTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000." t) W: t6 N; l4 H2 }8 }

% J; S8 h+ a" T. U"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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+ L2 c3 p6 e! u; ITD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.* M7 {- K- Q' v: h

4 q% C- {% n3 W0 h* gMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % w; T  W$ I, Q5 l, R% k

  U, s# R' P! u% R7 N, thttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,- m% d8 J6 u4 W8 x8 a4 F9 t
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。2 @; I+ y! Q. n/ m: Q
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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- K$ l4 `; X. d8 L8 g  b; V[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
1 g* }: _6 t0 b+ N跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了, J# A+ D& e: k8 I& n
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 j# i9 K: Y# {* r2 o$ B, i$ a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 Z' e  D5 g; Q3 s# c
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton. E" A# P% H' s  `! Z( Q& x9 ]5 t. ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to; p& v9 ~# f/ U5 {( y
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
  C0 ~9 [' l1 I3 l# t- k- L; Xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 }; t: s" \0 s+ R
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,% Y  k. a# k: c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
+ {# N' e. l) a& T) I* r* w7 {may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
  [. U+ X' h+ A% U$ Gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed) |5 k) j. B5 a3 R8 D
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
0 E% B: z3 A) g. X  Z. _to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
2 b+ D6 \; y0 m  g9 Yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
5 G4 Y/ f9 u7 B8 C+ E4 W; ]year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
% E8 K7 u1 e, d6 a0 m" Whomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
# U; ^3 C% @. w- Z; }' x30,000 new households will form in the province during. e. Z1 J0 O- }- Y+ w. J4 H
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.4 ?& M# E) ~8 R% L9 w" T% ~
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s& K, N, k1 w2 |# q; `
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
6 f% C3 k2 I! D+ S! s( k% r! wduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- g0 \2 r* R- ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 _$ Z7 m- F. R0 r8 c0 o8 i& Dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ K/ s# v0 ]8 D! r9 W) `9 }0 b( Z
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging7 f" _- ?; n+ G! Q
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, d& U+ U; w, T; gclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
) K7 W7 |9 T! ~) Uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  y( z1 h* ?! E6 l4 o# E- D; c
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a' E/ c) a+ h9 Q
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive) v! K) w. R3 f9 @6 S0 U! K
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
2 @0 C! N) t  itwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in  a  V" w5 W7 R  Z( ~! ]( N+ ~' q( X
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7477 Z+ K, x. z  b5 W9 w
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 L2 G7 z  j7 ^$ `5 d2 wrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the$ L1 S8 h0 W8 N% t7 @7 m& y5 N! m: K# M
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s7 t' p. u' T% S5 K5 z
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 u: S6 _- w, b" aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled# n6 e& M9 X5 |+ a
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ a( n6 d, Q' g5 B
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
6 H  D% A0 c9 wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.; c9 `, I; C' M4 N% K
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
. o, w. r# n- b; K! C& ahousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
5 R8 y4 C- V' Y" c2 Drelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) F4 k9 X& y2 [& s  Vprices substantially eroded affordability and, even& A% O+ O# X+ d$ F, G& Z& @
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners6 S. l  `8 \. D; l  G2 U( d1 b3 Q
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ \' O7 I! {  g! o, ~
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
  w( K/ c' G% a) j, W$ f. d' U$ Wresale price in February is evidence that past prices8 B' ~( x# X8 k  o3 z% f
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove. x. U9 t: V) t
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’* V/ r2 \1 j5 o; X# h/ Y
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,* _+ I* v$ @6 S7 d7 P# {8 l
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" w' |) z: b7 ~( w
leg down over 2009.% h) Y8 ^- p9 _' O
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& ]6 q# u4 J* VAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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. F; n$ `5 b, z6 o8 s$ O6 I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
4 [& E$ V- X8 i+ }% {, v9 [+ ~翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子% o- g5 K; l5 @
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments- }3 A4 P3 f/ p, l( k
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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