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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
; n2 ~1 J9 K' e% I1 X7 JWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its7 N8 u5 h6 O: S
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton+ c, M7 v5 ^$ ^4 A/ S0 W- y
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
5 W2 R, c' o3 Q8 H5 ]2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household. O" Z6 B2 k# F5 F$ G
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided& G5 @! y( Y6 m8 F' R' J- d. c
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,9 G( p( }! d; S2 L$ h; d% Q: k0 x
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and0 I% g. m9 x1 }$ d: {8 [1 {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
; n+ x( N# z8 Vpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 ~; U) A8 b# h- O S# E5 E
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined0 T: \0 N5 Z/ u F, L
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- A* `5 F! f. d: d1 U, Kprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
) d ?) x$ H( R8 _) @' u0 Y' k' Ayear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,& e' {9 o; z f! L+ p- k: l8 r; s
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ e# ]4 f" c( ]; |5 O6 q9 W& n" l
30,000 new households will form in the province during' H. H/ X0 Q8 |- T, [
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
/ f) [" t' P5 a* p$ f6 S3 d, BEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
R+ |& e9 _" I3 r0 Q4 fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: ?$ k# U: p6 y0 A" M( r6 R; rduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta3 |. X: c6 G2 v$ y
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
( d* t8 N7 W" k. m- Y$ lhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 b# W, g/ b* _1 \( j
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging6 k0 A6 V9 l# k/ y* N( n1 x& l' U
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
( E% K7 B4 v7 }4 eclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 Y: W' q; Z' q, uexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ `! s. a5 h$ ~: j( ^$ S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a$ F5 C) _% K+ ]+ _
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
5 o' j4 {' I! sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ b7 U; W- \, S. i; Ytwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 C% i$ _* z/ lunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
" T4 v0 `7 O" d7 a6 Yunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& B5 s4 p! x+ f8 P3 ~$ K
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- |' ^2 Z& g/ h# gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s; E9 q# a4 J! U# S$ Z) ^
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' B7 f" e2 x+ |- u" w& p) f _of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 l! V1 I0 M6 V ~6 ?6 crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.( ?# u& o# C7 M8 }' i" p9 T) }
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
; n3 o, g) T1 _* qboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 e, [9 ~- l) T& W: S# x7 BAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
" f6 S$ h# F9 a) s. \% |housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" m6 @ R ~$ O
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale k( d% t# N& Z, Q7 r0 t
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
8 O. }* ~" i$ m! b% w# x7 vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners& d1 M3 f$ H4 N0 ~/ x9 h9 {
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.; u- o7 _; W% q' [2 y7 {
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
8 O& M" ?; M' F# Z8 }' fresale price in February is evidence that past prices! C6 u* r8 t# Q" M
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
1 M, q7 P( ~$ U8 Y4 T& qhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
" l8 F9 K6 E, B& K _7 [deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ f. r2 h6 K6 D+ U, x* FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%2 C |* ~/ {4 |4 W8 a" m& n! c% G
leg down over 2009.+ U3 p2 b1 b8 F# i! w4 x
2 _, Q2 i7 z: v[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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