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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.0 j  \6 {9 \" V! M' r3 o
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 5 x1 W( U& @8 B1 B0 Z

" j  T! C5 _" f# c& kThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . t0 M6 l1 M3 I
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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4 O$ O, a( R' H# LTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.. H  H% o# ~: [$ i, }6 L

% F: |' F# n" m. K: h* O"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 9 n3 p9 r* j9 h  c
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ a+ s6 z! k( g7 a' T# z5 y: N
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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9 E' r; [) E6 xTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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  Q  U- M2 Y9 y6 V4 j: W2 Z[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
9 q1 @4 f* M1 I0 }- O7 z4 m 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。. F4 q! Q% q: z* B9 m$ {  F3 G% J

# V7 [) X3 u' p4 _  |[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
) A; ?# D5 @, k6 s+ R5 ?( M跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

% B" Y2 \1 \) z很多人都回学校深造去了, X+ ^4 z  x7 [( m
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta4 W& `, c! h, s9 W# e5 C+ o
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its1 [$ T6 {8 r2 h" {- W5 a) Q
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
5 |6 W4 {; B$ nare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 @* Y' c3 Y1 L" t: `2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household: v7 E/ _. a* w4 z
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 Y$ e3 ~2 N. q( c% j/ @) a7 lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ V5 z' V8 @8 j# [9 Q9 Ithe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
, o& y) Y4 {3 O0 t$ @/ D  y0 Rmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 W5 t4 \# w6 l- F! C2 ~( \pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed$ C# R. @+ w& V  L- j  s6 g8 i
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 M; v+ B. v8 D2 m! C" N: eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: B6 R5 h; D- p2 L  I0 Z3 n! uprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this( q4 v- E4 U* S' _7 p% J
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,* S6 ^" G: m0 c! P2 b& P( c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. p. X4 q. @: @! V
30,000 new households will form in the province during
. d3 Q5 K0 Y. W2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
5 V( M& T) B3 F' W- n' \Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
- P% r) _& C  z, Whomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%, t1 v  F1 Y! O; Z7 |( G
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
% r5 {( E$ r7 P# t# w1 E& C# Qhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new  F( ?. I- I' \6 U
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
$ f. V1 \7 U0 R) `, ?during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
+ N0 @9 f( U; t, s5 dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! s: O' M+ {+ E% p3 h% y* V& \
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is  D* j! F  o& t; w( X
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ s' G2 {7 T, s  ^
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
; x0 i+ {6 K' ?* g# ^sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
* E7 _- d) D) C" Cbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in# ?' J: F! K: h  P1 L: L
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in* L# X* [7 O$ l" p' Q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ k: l9 d$ B* w- }& s' aunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
! E, b, X% h' d  n( ~recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 J8 K2 c- @2 v* f' N( gresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s, T) C" P" `! u7 d
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 J% u# W9 N% L1 `of new singles, and, with demand having cooled+ B/ J) {" ^0 H: C1 r' n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
9 T" G3 M6 a: |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
3 U0 K- `# f0 k/ Q' `. E$ z& o! [boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: E5 h: e/ ^. F1 N4 U; V0 _1 `/ a& d  SAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan& o$ w; O1 r% z  v0 Q# |; t. H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
0 e  x1 a. T6 R  m( Y' u; P; s* o) irelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale. K' U8 K6 }! D& F7 m- [
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even) ]1 p: d1 p! v+ K- D* t
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
# W" q2 E2 h; c" j( a) y4 P' w2 u' Aon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.+ O: L2 ?$ A% a+ K1 p
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
$ z% a+ \) J" j1 P7 wresale price in February is evidence that past prices2 `& a! g; |: [! ]
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove% m, |$ z4 l: a4 u
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’+ n! q/ V5 y2 X, u# k1 f
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& z9 p- f( p% E0 t! T
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%$ Q  v. c7 ]6 F
leg down over 2009.: R: e" P6 |- u/ x* z6 r

, e! h4 f' m( e2 Q  {% i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# H3 C' y; c; P! S) n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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' N* s) q0 |9 r9 n9 c: \[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. ( E2 U. f! o# p# r" b
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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4 X' y% v: j# _8 \0 e% Nhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments: G. Q& ], P# x$ T5 T) S' o

2 w9 M2 i* `8 _9 M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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