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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta2 M- c1 o' k5 \9 ^; Y# Y* Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its' c0 s' g+ ^$ [5 P
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
, \9 |# W) c: a$ x- L7 uare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) w0 d8 Q. p4 M$ C2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
# l7 F% }0 H# w0 p6 y# m3 {; T) cformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided0 N6 O& j7 y9 Z' [
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,& g. x6 P" s6 p: q0 D" }2 [' c
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
) h* q; S: f3 Y( Z8 W8 Cmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
4 [% `5 F; w$ t0 c7 U& ]pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed( e/ p% V1 I8 b" k* X
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
% w% s& I: i" d* {$ M0 i0 g# zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
{3 X3 }0 B! @% }, r: J( Oprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this+ _$ g) ]' s4 j- C j0 d
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
: A; s: ~# `- }$ K5 b' _* W5 xhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around. T7 a/ @3 I/ D
30,000 new households will form in the province during
8 l) j5 i3 v; A5 p( C- `% u/ N2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
! @3 m; k$ Q6 p, ZEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s5 p* z8 _& o& F, b! u! I5 x* |. `: c4 j
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
]( _# ?1 C! z2 hduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta7 R8 c# U/ G7 K# W) k: j$ \) |7 ?; @0 {
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; g! o7 W% U0 p0 Zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
6 d, j4 V5 X; @, f1 Yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
5 n: I' p1 i1 ^; b. t z& Hsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 D4 G6 C, a0 M( jclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 T; z4 Y J% x' Q0 A) w" X" iexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of$ _% @ [% Y+ o j
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a+ X3 q5 G: j- q: t3 |5 t/ J6 H
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 U* v+ a+ f- F* Q$ I0 J8 d( S4 b
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
( w/ \' ^! e* W- atwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in" Y, V& N9 h( D. K. X
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ @* B+ U5 d" Z: Vunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest8 w k x( o; O
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 {- a. r H% N
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
* D4 F+ I( P- V( N& {major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories# X2 e: |$ h( p( L3 f" \
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! ?7 w; l; T0 n, brapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
2 }! z0 E5 J& |The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 ?( ^4 B s. J% Y: v
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic. _, I- d# r0 s( s# m
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan9 W: y1 M' B, K3 Q! v/ ]
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: Y" \$ Z o0 u9 Y2 }2 B4 \
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ a' Y/ Z3 Y1 c1 J: y( g3 ?prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% Z6 n0 e8 i+ vthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners0 L, y% s' O7 @7 u- K
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
; }6 O+ p9 s* h5 h8 _& @+ Z7 }- LThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average! X% N7 {7 Z* F4 f' n( E2 j* u
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
^2 b6 _- ~% Q3 `# Z# eexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove5 z4 m6 _6 i' w9 Z- m, ?, {
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
& d2 P; n0 N( m- bdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. g3 d& z4 X7 S& c0 ]" V0 w7 n
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%& J- b3 p5 k; |) B
leg down over 2009.% k- h: [4 e& }3 j( M0 C
+ J- X$ s t% L- q, p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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