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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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" t1 W- {4 l3 `8 p$ Q8 c) UTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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0 s/ c9 J) M' x9 K) \0 u- ?9 LThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. $ Z+ K: }* i" u6 p
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. ' n. a( s; g; i6 E% o% q

# K4 d1 l6 o" t/ k8 VNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." G! a: ]3 }; h; q, B7 ?
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.3 Z0 V* ]9 z. g2 o  {' ~- t
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 o& e% }: ^* F* G  P1 ]

% C1 C  O; S. p% B. D! oTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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. w; h( F/ V( x* }; k6 v4 w& D- yMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 9 F) k4 k4 _8 [! ?9 L$ A2 |$ n. f

. G( B( P/ a/ I4 [3 A1 mhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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1 C1 x7 f8 h+ `7 p: Z" e+ CTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
6 C) g! j0 |$ `2 s- ~0 V1 W) g, n9 a7 C3 o; D& ?* {
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。: j# H& K9 T$ T, ]  }( p4 A# a' z
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。; A! K, |' Z' U; @! G9 l  K

, s% e& A: |7 a1 p% i[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 9 @" ]2 X/ `2 @" F3 N; n
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了$ `. o. x0 A: s
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
8 v% Q8 d3 I2 `# oWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its, a* S$ o( k; v8 i6 A# W4 V
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton, K0 ^. j" n0 t( o
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 x! c/ a, x: P# O8 p* r* C: o7 K2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( |5 R7 s+ q. `% x6 S
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided7 B; @( k+ Q1 K7 U
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,# Z* v) T$ ^+ n) H
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( V; Z9 N  f$ _. _may even cease completely during 2009. The previous; M+ g. I( A1 d8 H$ ?
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
: K, C7 G( _( Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined- w6 [: @; x$ m. h) f. j/ Q" w
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 J+ W7 O& l$ q9 F0 U- m
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 m1 ?( n# m6 T/ L/ b7 oyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
$ i6 n* {+ I* s! dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around# Z, G0 u, g' L* r. a; `8 S
30,000 new households will form in the province during
& F' ?+ g, r: o5 ~7 C2 |& a3 G2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.! ~3 }9 W+ E- S) K6 |" B( B
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s9 {5 J. H) i5 T9 A. r6 O
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 j- Y; N/ V( A" \during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, ]; e' y- B9 t; i
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 Q9 `1 n0 |# x6 |& dhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals, Y9 H# J3 i. b: |5 P: O, ~& _* Y
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 M9 K4 }9 ]% C- J3 B0 Osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
2 C* S+ W: |3 v5 r* pclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is+ x) n1 A' S4 @2 e" V
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 K2 u4 Z; G+ r. b1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
$ K2 T# |  ^- W" \; W( esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 b" ?8 `) ^! I! B1 P8 m% T+ V
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in) d& B% Q, p2 h1 F
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 v, \* G/ T0 |3 F; Q: L4 f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747! h- z1 U& x( e. P/ U
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest; [; u8 m4 S7 P/ I8 B3 A0 \
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the0 t+ U; G1 ~3 S& ~; B
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) f$ [2 y+ y1 K, y: d) i6 |
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories) b/ [/ w- _/ y9 E+ n- [+ @6 d9 k
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 m  L+ E  O  y7 V6 x5 g0 P/ h# t% _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.: S' N5 R7 @( ]! R) q9 t! ?
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# B  X$ }4 H( Y3 t; u2 O; m
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# o% `. M  |# [" n/ |% pAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
$ h; s" M, O' X# S2 ~! ehousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 ?! V2 @+ b$ y/ T9 ^2 v
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale( x6 b2 ?9 _$ A3 [! v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even3 @3 x' {2 K7 ]; N) Y4 t
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners* m  g% \; R, s) c4 y: B' E' E, z
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.- ^3 }" w4 o  L( i7 w0 _) a  J
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' O  v3 L% R5 }3 G/ x) k/ ~: Y
resale price in February is evidence that past prices- n& v2 S3 p: t
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 C& J% K. @- k3 o3 P; Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’0 m2 d0 F1 Q0 g# d( y4 s
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; j6 @- u! \; y4 pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( T5 c9 Z  E( v
leg down over 2009.
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9 p0 u" t" _# s/ l[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) P  Z5 _* i! B* n0 \9 NAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. / `9 n+ L% e- i* m* V  V" [
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子+ c! U$ L8 B0 E8 Y* @

4 ~3 N6 V* z" I% z3 G% p; d2 Lhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments/ }& P% t$ D: `/ D( k
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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