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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. * i& X2 R) d& L+ ^  c7 z

+ H/ h  N% X+ u! `" PThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 0 N2 s2 e* d6 x" a. g& A8 A! g

: Z. x! I: |) }"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.& M1 l1 k8 Y) j+ \$ n) G/ ~

/ Z% v8 C4 u; ]( |TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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* ]% ?3 T+ p# t, [; L3 S0 g+ l; F" m"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 7 Z9 f- f! A$ t; {% E2 b" r2 _1 d

( Z2 v5 }0 c: f, D0 aTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.. ]  v# V6 l( N" x
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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) X+ f" P- i1 d. R  I) `# TTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。- L0 N4 i1 }1 i0 d
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。+ d& j, T1 |6 ]5 r( R6 K

$ {8 Q; x8 c7 E" A: I7 v' a[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 3 Y5 e; M8 n, p1 O  `8 x
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( e8 c' S) I2 i3 i( ~( R很多人都回学校深造去了% K' g/ ]% {* ^0 i# F& m0 _
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta& R; ~5 I5 n' f; {. e2 `0 N
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
% C' |3 g; `0 f" Vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
2 ]* \: ^9 ~0 p9 Q7 q/ Eare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2 `/ A, J) v$ n2 j% v* B4 a) X2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
4 E! f# y5 O, \3 Sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* [3 Q4 S8 u/ Z& ?3 [6 Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
3 P' X: z+ l. B2 _5 e/ Nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and  t, y  K% k/ |7 w5 n
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous' \- |" n# Y# @+ k' i# D
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 Q. z) g! Q# f4 S3 o1 nprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( \' u7 @( P0 t. O, J, Gto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 l. v, p; ]% ], ^- u5 yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this/ e- o* e, `2 P
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
2 \7 }* i3 U/ \3 W  \# \$ m7 khomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
! j* D0 l, D8 \30,000 new households will form in the province during
. ^3 i1 M3 C- I( w( z: D# @) x2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 z7 A3 o8 r- e; W) I3 j
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ F0 T8 w8 [  I8 T. N# ?6 K
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%  E( B2 Z! U9 m6 F* Z! @
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
6 \% i- h! r) d+ Jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
' U. N) V8 X) W& _" A, phouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals- B# s4 J! D! W" i- D& ?
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
) M" r3 v% Z( m( Q8 k) {sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories3 G& r# \9 t8 K7 C
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 E: M5 P. T( U, ^0 jexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
5 f- `" l- L8 H2 W1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
/ M3 v6 h/ H; A  }! h! f# o  C) Rsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
# O2 v5 N; L8 o0 X8 d& J/ sbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in0 R4 p; Q! q2 }$ z# l* y) w. H3 C5 S4 _
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in% p( Q+ D% J: b0 z5 Q, @, i
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: c. |) W/ L2 m3 ?& ]! B5 T3 |2 Runsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest& M, M' |$ e( Q" @( Y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the# a( E$ Y1 `& _9 U0 o2 `
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
& K3 C4 Y' _8 {4 Nmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories1 i& x$ T& z! s. t: v0 e+ T* ^7 J
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
2 G& {+ X# ?# {6 X# hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.$ D, w& f% d- w1 Q% {2 D
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s* M. n. N) U4 _. v/ {$ N. T
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 [/ ^2 ?1 r4 K  G! f0 X; k& M/ A2 LAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan' Q% T; m/ J% v8 Q1 o- G
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 O* D1 \3 W6 t! h
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
! e. k5 W! E5 v3 _; r# w6 xprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
, B3 a, l! @& i; z. L5 D* o9 s9 ethough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 F) b, `& }0 t, p- t  mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
' O& V' h' n' n. f# vThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average8 H3 [; Q* F* Y1 C* S' W
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 G5 e$ H( ?& P) r2 r# o/ I! A! dexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
3 |/ U5 y& O, Q" s! Z1 L) i  z* Ghomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
' S2 Y* H% ]! C4 v) @deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,# [" K! S# l$ A. n4 M, M3 w( g
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! {8 J# c& v1 E# }( K2 eleg down over 2009.
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( r' V7 \7 J1 v5 o6 _  U+ B( T. a
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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8 [8 o, L" Y/ G3 ~[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 U' u; ]7 v' x) T" v3 z翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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/ B3 I4 U" o! m; T6 u# e, ]. q[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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