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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta% ~* H0 C" K. q- [, }5 d! F
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 J' L3 H- f* x2 L9 K. _! fboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) S& n% E ^" N, o3 O
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 z# t' X! l* n9 [2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household5 M0 E- d" g6 Q) i- V- r
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
' k8 m( Y: c0 ~3 R, C# D3 k& _from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
& c" Z2 s0 m; t( ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ ] Y, a) D/ E4 {
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
5 [% K/ ^$ n8 _' M: K4 g+ _; f5 \pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
' Q3 C8 |& c7 I2 T$ jprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
9 K# I% d `. p9 ~: w3 eto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year8 n5 S0 x$ M. B9 u8 h
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this' I# g, d; x; a3 z
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms, h( F" R8 I& X# z
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around( m0 ~: }1 w: L. a' h* g' X, t3 R
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ o6 O7 Q7 Z( M9 p+ {! t) L# U2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.1 X' x, a) z1 |
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s( H# r8 [; w/ M: k1 x7 m. A
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
$ y5 x. N3 j) {& k m- R) Vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: n: N" ]0 Y8 X& ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 [! l% {- A t$ F5 p4 J* Q
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals1 F: y8 C$ X! O. K" I' o
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
2 w) f- W- k, j3 f' bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. c% k" X9 c, Z* v+ iclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: |2 R8 L( P9 |8 Z) _4 m% ^
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* y8 ]" ^; r# ?! D0 q# j7 V: H" H1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a( E% Z- n# i) g& @
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
6 l: e, x( }( X6 o! G) S7 ^buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
3 ?% [1 R; L, H/ M& R0 Dtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 `$ J6 v" L$ O7 O; h, c
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7470 i; [7 K6 J. f. g! ^0 u& J4 E
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ C! U+ M2 P& xrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the* N3 T$ e7 k9 }9 F0 `+ S
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
6 u8 x4 D+ I2 t/ B( G" f3 Amajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories0 ^5 N. ]% u9 e/ I, v+ e: z, }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
# u% l6 z' }2 ?6 q P4 s; _- \1 grapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
& M7 G0 ~- ~& N+ G2 i# D7 eThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
8 f9 A# ^* Z$ J! A" v) {9 \boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
- B( ~7 `6 b5 }) A/ A cAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
0 i$ E4 e# G7 q; r4 C& ~! Jhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. B6 H' I5 T( u/ s$ Y, orelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
0 C4 Z( a+ X8 k( S8 V( P! Y3 lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
. u6 i* W' s$ p9 Q) Wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 \* F) v! W9 h, p2 gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 V% P7 a2 K/ _
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average' b% G3 j4 ~: t a S l" g- l2 D$ _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
1 a' o9 u$ s/ v P0 S8 t8 Gexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove- {. {+ V& |/ S
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’, y9 Z! l8 L& d; X& k8 N4 K
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
& \3 c. _% i1 _% { i4 v# l7 sAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ M1 b8 Y, l6 Wleg down over 2009.
( o$ p9 l: ^1 e, `0 Q0 C7 p% W- q4 q. L# w" ]: @4 A* K
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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