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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
7 a1 {: E- q; \5 I6 Q4 IWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its/ W8 h/ u3 U* ^
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
' s* z+ K) H7 c, m" R, P' Q! L* Pare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" M$ c6 Q; K3 E& D0 R, y2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household9 y7 w6 M5 D: O7 o7 }+ n8 u( ^. e
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- G" S" {$ f" m8 T. o% Xfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
/ w1 [/ K! N6 V# e( H4 g2 Ythe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and8 {$ j) g( o8 {8 z- n
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& ]/ p- b9 h+ O+ qpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed1 n4 N# s8 f. {7 B! r3 M% H
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined9 l$ C5 `* k8 Y. ~* Y- y: s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year& K F2 \! ^1 C; T2 |1 Y) ]; P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this3 O- ~( M$ K: j0 l- Z l
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) Y5 z0 S. g+ l: Z1 c
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ {$ ~+ e7 t* F% Q
30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ A1 h7 q% d( ?( g }! i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
; j% T: r! P+ I- h5 g2 n. h. d8 VEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
# J* x& J% n) r3 `$ Y- g6 J8 Hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 ~# S2 y* k5 Y. d# M' Sduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta5 Q4 J. e& `) L6 V T
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 Q D1 }8 v7 b; Nhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals9 K+ x! v1 z) W
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging% a/ I4 J T. d& {5 a& M
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories9 y) ~6 G* y% [& v% P |2 T. @9 D* E
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
0 `! w( e$ u$ k9 V0 xexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of' c' x6 B2 t0 q7 a; N) ~6 t s' d3 w
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 I: [" c# z" Y
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive3 ]4 G( a+ }( Z3 W! o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 h) q2 a7 a/ B+ {, D. s, E8 G3 u
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: H+ m9 h9 ?$ j' o Q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
; F+ q: x# l! @7 q* p! o: W9 bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest2 L1 d6 A3 C" ?
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the: M5 Z0 B' N4 l3 K
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
' U; n; [8 k5 `3 Nmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories P" o) b- \+ |' z& H( l; n" j
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
) \: w* M8 e9 I$ }' j9 t3 Crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.# K1 d7 ~' r; x- u4 |
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
# k+ W6 B2 h# Y: tboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
4 Z* | b' ^0 r1 \0 ~8 d2 e- p4 w& OAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: O& D2 D& y' o# e) h& J; @$ R$ ]housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced5 ~$ i& g/ b u
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
' G. \& D5 Q5 q+ L; yprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
: J0 Y7 ~% `" Q! Bthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners: f3 e( [, S a# }9 D
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.) E+ k+ I% g( d: ^
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
/ h5 r( u8 ?" o( j8 Q& x1 Wresale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 p. U; U! d5 m3 i/ @- wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove) @% a) Y* _0 i1 `, H( r8 K8 G
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& d. C0 z# q3 N- v$ t' \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,7 O& p! u: i# F* x& k
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
% f2 N" K! B, l" d! y7 z! m0 W. E. Aleg down over 2009.7 T* K1 }5 [' `3 W7 f5 G7 y
9 ~+ v% H+ T% g
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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