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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.: x, \3 ^% E6 n7 e# ]' S

" ?1 a  i3 P4 |TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 9 h7 A6 |4 B! G7 Q3 z

- j6 f3 U7 s/ I' T) SThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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1 |* q9 c/ n0 q1 o$ |0 B1 R$ jNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.7 \0 n) D9 a4 l

0 S5 z; a5 V' c; D0 ]& W$ s- j9 kTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 5 G  _- D  P' \% U# J

$ }1 `' P1 H* g! l  Q/ K5 BTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % ]6 V( w" J0 C9 M  O
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

' C7 a$ P0 g' j' [  e3 f$ i: W  p$ d* z: o( u( A0 ?1 }: C
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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  c8 l6 e; J# I[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。! [) ~# P! [1 O9 D  l
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 4 T) }. ~8 [3 q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

* j" @! h8 e: G2 U/ g1 b- C很多人都回学校深造去了
0 Q& `: X. _2 I5 k2 ]7 X1 v嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
3 F' c" E$ @: b0 g/ `) xWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
' W1 F$ ?! q. c6 S4 v5 xboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton/ s$ D8 E# T3 z" y7 G
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) {1 N  W( @3 Y' k2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ S, l& M: V, _7 v! I* b
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided3 U& T( ?+ _4 b% i7 [: {7 `
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" H& l& P& p- r/ ?. a' gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 u; J  K) m6 L, i) }2 k6 i
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, t- M; X7 x; j' ~1 bpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% J1 K( z* J. Y: T- `2 Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined5 ~+ c- |2 a- `: s1 s
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 `6 X" A& P  H! _* y3 jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this, W$ J$ e& u+ p8 ~
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,2 F2 k1 _) p# u+ _' B# \' d9 G
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
  P# s; z: ^7 L" m% z5 Q  f30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 Z9 }  \6 p. z) U, D2 G! G2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
+ u$ M) e1 E' ?9 S, E' I* EEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s6 i- h, N( u; B' }
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
: m) I! K- e( f+ @during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta' Z3 m7 S: ~4 Q# F
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new& A* I, I& p% K2 Z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals" O  [. }4 K) M, c! g/ F' w
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging  N% U& Q2 s" ~( t! I
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
. k- R/ p& X6 q% Qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
, a$ o/ h" t8 W# j. x6 Sexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
9 z7 z5 ^  |, b0 c  ~1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a/ w$ c1 Q  t# {5 X
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 Z4 c+ n% n1 k0 n( P0 x
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
: }5 N4 o% ]. M4 b; V8 z% wtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in, O4 ]6 J2 ]- F' B2 g; ?* ^
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
5 X( ~$ T3 g# s9 ?5 eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest0 |( ?2 c' L9 Q0 P" |/ D0 F6 j
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the! v$ s2 J; @5 f
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s# r4 [: y5 O3 @) D) T; i3 \
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
' j9 `. S/ x) v+ k9 B4 aof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 K, }5 T$ J# Q* b% @. ~rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.8 b9 `+ q8 f. [1 m2 z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
  I* P  p1 W$ L+ u/ y, Lboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.  `2 i( ?0 }+ L, @6 c
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
) V2 z7 t9 q$ l, k  j5 ohousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% Z- U+ n7 R. s, i& h: w
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
) B4 Q# _4 l) Z8 z; L# D/ uprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) ]1 l" j& l7 }. A) @: O
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. A' W! x1 h: e2 [  @
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
7 T$ V4 `7 ~3 t2 zThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 S. A; S& h6 a# h9 `& v3 J
resale price in February is evidence that past prices# j; a- U& m0 a0 T
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove" |/ I: w3 g4 B0 [5 r
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
4 V$ Z# u1 e4 c, @+ Z5 m9 x0 w" Zdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
" l1 }2 [6 u1 ]" X0 j7 H+ yAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 W( ~! A5 J3 Z1 ]" ^8 ]9 Y
leg down over 2009.
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7 g0 f- Z4 C( y, O3 n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
大型搬家
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; C2 h) K  i0 \2 {Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
8 I$ h$ m$ O  S1 a翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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! P0 j( A: y2 {1 o0 ?$ n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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