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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ c6 n* i6 S: n# N
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its+ i9 H1 U3 A% `* @
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton' g1 `1 P+ v1 Z; x) d
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to% I: n; f W2 s' V
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household, I- z2 ?# U; s2 A8 ^5 f/ s0 c- }
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
* g3 R5 J. A7 xfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 {1 I/ j* H# O0 O" `; G! G6 t
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and% [* b7 a: h% ?3 _+ o3 Q$ n( ?
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
7 c; y( p3 n) ^7 A8 hpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ L8 x+ K9 j uprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined' N ?* n$ j8 N( X6 ^( J: E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
8 _7 m" Z6 c9 A" ~ |$ m4 Yprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this2 y7 z( g5 N k6 l4 q
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
* `7 V% ^# o4 L: S8 i2 }* D. \homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
- X( b. U2 e$ u/ c3 P30,000 new households will form in the province during
7 S) C8 j# i K& i2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
& S- H; G+ d8 I H/ `' C0 }" GEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 b, T' ?* Y1 b1 ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10% E1 @' m: i' {" }9 Z. c8 }
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
0 h6 d9 a! l; {6 {+ U1 h0 X' i$ h& bhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
$ L* X7 N% b, W$ M4 I- j6 }households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
3 N0 ~4 t5 w1 Z. N5 uduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
# p5 `2 k; ~) Z, asales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
: H. i) w8 @; p) [1 k, M& kclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is. m$ [ A+ K m( f5 m6 W0 v; t
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of1 h; n2 B# O2 F
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% T) m8 ^: [& ?% {! k
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
. p4 _3 U6 G7 Q; u w, E% K' |buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 e0 O& P6 u- D; W9 ]
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in0 ^* S( {4 t# X/ T$ P0 O
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747% C5 i. l: q6 p% V& O1 a; D
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
$ x: J+ u" U3 h7 l; U; }2 brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
7 x w# U* p; Z+ }1 fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
" S0 n+ {6 c) y( T' Xmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
. F7 [3 |6 J$ n7 ? e; Vof new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 X2 K9 @8 {, P. D0 c7 o/ P
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.1 J9 \0 t* x/ G, g Q( e$ T
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s# v4 z8 q. R& V1 K, \6 Y
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.* U# ?7 ^6 A8 p/ T! o0 ?8 {
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
Q/ N6 E' ~6 O7 Khousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced# r2 ?4 }; ]3 v+ v6 |# w+ Z
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# k4 h4 [6 W: {" mprices substantially eroded affordability and, even. h9 r8 X. G! O- Y8 D" l& |& F- N+ G4 Q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 U' z4 L. i0 I) i5 r" }: }0 Won average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
% {8 O$ p1 c5 K/ \# wThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average; S" D& A7 [3 }1 _
resale price in February is evidence that past prices' ^& t! ?, T. c/ P; l
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove( e n9 S' ^6 j$ h- q) r( W
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’- {- v! c# O% w: d
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& t/ L0 |: E1 A9 V- P5 p
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%5 O6 ]# M/ [: X; A' z" I
leg down over 2009.
* y$ t/ G9 n b
5 h. \& w; ?5 k3 d( j3 @[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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