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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
4 N' B, ?- G1 ?3 R6 Y3 d, \Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 D, E, m0 ]4 o, @0 q# P3 x; K
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton0 u `' F5 z/ H; N& T- r
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- w# D$ D, t0 l5 ^( }/ [- U' l9 \
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household4 r) c' m" ?, I
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ o. P! {1 G! R1 o1 dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
0 }5 `! a3 D: Q D o6 l! nthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ r: Q4 V a( r; B, X# h8 ^may even cease completely during 2009. The previous: [. P1 q! Z1 d9 m+ u% L- k
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed6 K$ F# G, d9 I, M' k/ r+ k% p
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
/ A8 E* ~& k4 c) q0 H# D1 K& b- tto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* F2 e |/ k3 F& F
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
# w# T6 m' ?, X; ?% b! b7 x# Myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, b4 S( c1 u/ U
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 s2 `* F% A ], a) A+ _# ^; Z
30,000 new households will form in the province during
4 A- L( u5 h3 @2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.& E) N b/ Q" ]
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s* z. i' W& ^& @( [9 L
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; | K* _4 `( l1 v9 Iduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta- P+ t, f; }3 O3 R- ]
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 A$ g/ o C& h0 x1 M
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
B8 O H" a- D' }0 Gduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
3 k g6 q& R. J+ O6 M. Esales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories! r0 O+ U! Y! Z4 |, \: E0 C
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
' J5 X, k& F: z0 qexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of3 r2 i- u! r: p2 u) ]
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a. H$ m8 K2 e+ g( ?4 J$ J4 p w
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
d5 [ F9 b; c& z3 \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in, k7 C7 k" c+ h& S4 }8 Y4 V
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in5 k- H7 h5 }/ H
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
: w/ q& h6 Q+ G: Bunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
- [6 h1 q# C- brecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& W' m' t; {& B# v2 @: h0 wresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ x/ a Z% h; A% v/ t
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! y g' H$ M4 Jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
w, I& Z9 b Drapidly, resale markets already appear saturated., p3 ?$ m% D4 z
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
4 J- l8 l6 z: h9 w+ hboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
5 E$ o" l- |3 y" F: PAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 \7 X( K/ F4 K# i; Ghousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% E2 {6 z" v8 B9 lrelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale& r& p6 w: [6 z6 `% j, H: v
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 h0 N2 `5 x4 ythough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
. Q" I& l' G: Z7 o9 I/ w7 {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.( J' ?( ? _/ k4 B
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average1 ~4 W" n. Z# c7 S8 I; [" l8 U
resale price in February is evidence that past prices7 D1 x2 t. N' e
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove* E1 `2 \! f8 ^ i. h8 v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’4 S4 W/ m: X1 j& K8 x9 S8 W
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,. {2 A' Z' m. Z5 o, C" T3 o
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
3 g$ \$ ^! w% w; vleg down over 2009.
) U3 Z9 R. ^; a3 J! O0 s; I! Y7 W& Q
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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