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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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# N/ I3 O( G2 |" [- n' R& {TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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% g# @) f$ r! P0 d  C- A( o) KThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 7 h# t2 B/ H; V' G0 {" x

  i7 _! j- ?! v"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.$ v1 U& I5 I1 G4 A

  K6 F, p4 H3 ]! D; jMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % ~' ^  ]: N$ ~8 J( c/ D
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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5 @# Z: S) L$ w[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
6 B; B1 S. ^) o5 } 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。3 m5 x# Z- A  Y1 A( {% q5 ~% }

; @. c  u1 y! H6 n[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
, F4 }  \4 C5 b% K/ o7 \跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

1 ~% [5 b1 h0 Z7 N' z' {" T& g( Y很多人都回学校深造去了
, d% ?/ A- |4 p5 k* w嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta# ^6 U: w  _8 [5 i
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; s- v9 G9 W) c/ Dboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
: G5 K! k; _: y! X3 Bare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
) a1 A! h# M6 B4 s; i/ ]: O; ?2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household/ a2 X( L6 c- L% b
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* ?* C  D7 ~: y
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 Q& q2 c6 I9 Z
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and: I" ?6 x% B9 ?& l! K1 i8 P/ S  z
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous+ }  \2 Y& Q, c) h7 N% n
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
4 p2 `- z) k, J2 M; y* j; Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
, P) f+ C, j+ x7 }& W/ M0 b/ fto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
3 A+ P  f) C. U: [7 A2 ~4 xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this) X$ T* u. s$ u2 Z4 m, d# B: \4 h' ?" e
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,) d9 {$ z- I5 ~, L- z5 K, @- n2 d
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
" o  G" Q" ?2 L" i1 t30,000 new households will form in the province during
/ O: q2 M9 w: L  P) J( h2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.* \1 X! Q  e# q/ }% G) @$ |
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
5 c9 I$ L, P( r& v% Dhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 ^# n1 _8 P$ s; D. x! z+ X, l; gduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
$ N8 I& ~2 h- Z; j2 j! ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
+ k+ v, }4 a0 u. {$ \+ Rhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals7 a7 E/ }/ R+ d/ e  r0 ?
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
& `: [4 z$ j* W4 |, e. [; n5 osales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; q/ E. L3 ^9 X5 V' Z3 _+ `; d# N; ^
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
+ c! e) q; u( Y2 _7 rexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of9 @- k  |0 y( m( {9 q. w
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
4 C: P4 e7 b0 Y; L# `+ u* {. esales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& {* O& k3 b5 S* L+ s
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ E1 x& _& E3 _; Z" J: Ftwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in4 T* P6 i' J5 a9 g
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
$ J& y! s2 c9 e- Z% tunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest4 x. l: X2 Q: j% g* {0 f) \7 s( J5 [+ S4 a4 f
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- d1 w, p3 \0 {# |5 Fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
! _# U; Z7 A6 O+ x: rmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories' z* `) p; @" k3 L0 @, c6 A2 d
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled5 D0 W7 A  }' _5 x# `' t0 N
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.6 G- |5 o4 R" k8 _) y, K
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
% v0 M8 I: \" A' pboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
, ]1 D( v9 `7 l4 D5 X" ^" S" TAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan% F& k  X6 G  q0 w* k  k1 f
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced- M) ^" W9 V) ?) _8 m3 [
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 ]5 o1 g% |0 E- w
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even' c+ E& U; q, v$ Z# W
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners1 h* b8 W- ]! J0 r( n/ g
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
5 r/ |8 ]6 w7 {6 P! A) Y: R& ^! hThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( R. Z1 }7 X' Z  U9 |  ]- N  F
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
: U! Y) ]: M4 ?0 |7 c, Q* m2 Uexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove4 p2 Y( Y* B8 w, x8 F  t
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
( G) z1 w" k9 j  Kdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,/ H0 l8 o& y! U- i% D9 W
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
! @9 C) \) G( c0 Sleg down over 2009.
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2 y  B3 A" R) ?! t$ d# Z1 F8 A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ L1 g8 T3 g" C$ e- T& B$ m6 XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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3 J2 n; D4 k( i/ i[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 6 ]+ F3 [5 y# A. \$ P( ^
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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8 l( M, P& w2 G% E- V[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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