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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.; f0 J8 V7 K  ~5 W1 ^

8 z+ ]4 {/ |" t8 L, |TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 5 B! O1 ^% b# p5 B
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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1 t* s( K- J1 R1 m; Q"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 8 d8 X4 \9 Z- g! v4 z5 e/ U% R

/ G* y) ^  J4 @3 T6 r, {* f( mNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.( F: x8 O8 H- M( O. o; n" s  B

% g" s0 e; @6 V4 V# C+ t/ oTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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& I0 K7 R& n; T; q/ x" h6 y$ e"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. 4 n( u* H' X5 @1 [

' |! F9 _3 `8 R  d2 WTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.6 @1 b6 \# h7 x* Q9 A9 R
+ V4 {, b9 e  i7 H6 ~/ ?" Q
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. , c5 f( ]6 K) \9 F2 B+ i
% L, Z; w1 w' g* U3 c
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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- h- C7 ]- H9 x. v" H1 g' ETD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% S3 Y- z. W+ r' L$ H

" q- n* O! I( l+ F[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
  a, g9 l. _  e; p6 i3 q; ^" [- o 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。- v; Y, K7 O. E: ?" Z

$ m9 k) Y$ x3 H[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 6 N" ]* r* h1 q
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
- |! ]1 Q. |: [5 n7 f+ ~嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta6 ~$ t% F) \$ v; U; P8 Z
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
2 [$ J. \* ^% W+ b0 a( Pboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton: _% A3 n6 R/ G; a& A( m3 T( \
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to. t, s: g8 Q) a. M* o
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
$ s/ d1 @& E1 f2 }  Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
7 [8 j) n+ i# M$ Dfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
, K2 i+ v# N9 hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
( ?3 Q4 y5 E* [: ^* Z1 k3 S( Y$ l1 Umay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
1 F* B: o3 e1 t" \5 j7 epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed# @' u; J7 a" I3 h. K
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
( c4 c& n$ G! b. L" fto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year* T- n% s1 g' s' j9 n) d8 ~
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- S2 t% `# [* J* {; ]! O
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,$ e2 D' _$ D% m) Z! q) }- [: ?
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
3 J( C* d$ ?) h3 c2 I( ?& p30,000 new households will form in the province during
8 H9 i# c, Y, Q9 H2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.# y, C% V# H! }6 Y3 t# O3 q, v' F
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s4 s8 B5 q) H" y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
4 T% }: J) k! t) v! p( Fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, G. p9 Y0 ?& M) U* _% r; t
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 {6 F& ?( Q! u: k. B, c2 z
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
1 i& i' g8 f: d' J, n1 _' s9 Zduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging+ X7 ~$ j" V+ z; \) W4 k; T2 `
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories1 {; t: x3 z1 w* T' p! n4 [
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is6 e+ Z% |$ y6 p) {6 x3 s  \
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of* [7 x( |3 D& ]. X6 r
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a, Q2 n! Y4 R  [2 ~2 |' e# p
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 T  f8 f) q, \+ I' o
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in% w& I7 p7 S9 P4 m: H
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in7 y/ ~/ _6 q5 i4 h4 f
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( ~6 I( p2 q8 O5 Ounsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. o. j3 @# o: t* }, \6 ]recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- j: |9 M: J" L% {  Q: _  `resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s+ s( u6 D8 Y% L0 d* \5 B+ P2 X
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories: J  V- E5 h# \7 Y* B3 X1 |+ ~: e
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
! Y: k9 R" b5 X3 }1 _rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
+ @" V' J/ z: Q$ k9 R- u: l6 KThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' r# P- U5 H7 r: }) c( ?
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.( b. m/ g8 p# Z/ s& z
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& y3 `$ R6 M5 x; Phousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced$ O+ ~: n9 }' M- I: T3 f
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
  L% M2 C8 N) c6 eprices substantially eroded affordability and, even$ x) T% K$ ~4 r
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners% M) q9 D! g+ k
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.$ ]& Z, S. [& ]2 a0 I8 {/ i
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average7 S% I% j. J& r+ o' S( O
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
4 f& ]; q- N) D  jexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove3 F5 ^! _: B) x6 h7 N
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
1 |/ W. }! v5 v& P3 O; rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
7 t9 G2 A. H1 ^, R: U' J( _) _8 XAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 J4 z" g! E+ y8 L
leg down over 2009.
, t% f0 b: h; X+ f/ {) B( w4 q& n3 r9 \$ o" |* ~( A5 j/ S, k2 R
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
: y4 i: P9 w( t/ m6 l! I+ G/ W6 P+ nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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0 C6 H2 R; t+ d/ v  N- [[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
% L: h( Q' p$ c/ K翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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8 d1 k  x  i" f+ Fhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments( _. |2 A" o* s

/ s% h4 @% f* `( E$ c! O& }[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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