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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics." X3 }2 y1 R. S3 O* v$ R

) A8 f$ J( E; G2 B$ j5 _' K5 cTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ! }- Y1 B% }' a* r; G4 |

' F2 g6 t, X& s8 ~$ T: Y. BThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. . L1 }4 K8 q3 H( d- }, N) p

; E- U9 y+ t3 _8 j/ z) ?# p* Z"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
: d& z/ \' O& l9 r4 X2 ]
- X! b  z; D) K& u$ lTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.. H# o1 F$ _3 g$ H% P
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.4 |. B0 n+ v0 V: K" \
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 9 w) D0 ~* B; v( r- O4 |! D& {

" w* V/ A2 c2 o' H+ ahttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

4 o) m, c# b8 B8 Z* T$ q+ n3 d( u" ?
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! Z' a$ a- Y9 p8 g' s% F$ b: S

& v& z! _* ~) ]2 s1 ^% e[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
# A# I8 Z  K5 R8 O; M* W4 e# @0 ] 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
; f1 L) Z, e% V跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了
( c: s* O, x8 c2 ?嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ b' }! N+ F- @! X
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its$ m& P) I8 P% |
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton) y5 R  s7 }0 g% ?
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to  d9 A2 R: r5 h: x2 z- n5 W( S8 L
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
+ Z& m/ x* n& A& k: C% Bformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided* u6 I: F% j1 q. k$ b* a% g
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,5 d" j! S  D3 K9 ^
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
/ ^. _% ?# a" j0 H1 K, pmay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
& p& N: i- n: V) u# O/ Epace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed- N5 J; z5 ]% h/ H0 C
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
& {! a2 C/ J& L% c: a6 m/ cto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
( W, U) f9 L# [% E" A1 _prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
6 q( j; Z$ \9 D  ]7 U/ Wyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
7 E- ]+ E' }% Zhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around3 ?- q; K2 k! ^) X) \
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ v; ~" X) H/ g8 j7 w1 u# y) x& b2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
3 M2 e# o) c3 U+ _  `+ Z/ F: aEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 S+ Z+ @0 ?* }0 ghomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
+ Z1 X: U. T/ {- d  c" J, ]during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
7 X4 L' p  _3 E; K* m8 V* _has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new5 i3 P6 |9 }8 D
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals. E( t) m9 R8 u0 I8 a; V
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging. P* j; C8 o4 G  B/ P, l
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories+ B; H! \* b4 ^; r' d
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
4 y  D$ N( J2 m! ]7 ^excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of/ g- h/ J& L, S; |* t
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 o4 Y$ a1 d) R+ V. {: }sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
8 F* C8 J, P+ u  s# {buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
7 l: O! D. L  I  Qtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in( l/ s9 Q6 n- G( Y( P' ?0 B7 w3 a
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ h4 H0 {1 A6 l: o1 e' ^5 sunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
2 ^0 i% G8 k% x% }! t/ C8 drecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
& k8 V4 ~( W) zresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
) w. z  Z% S' Fmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
+ @' V  G/ P% a5 ^6 `" t; ?! k6 Zof new singles, and, with demand having cooled# h, q- h' N  t* o
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.' C, t' h' d! d' d
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
" R$ [& E# c' ]  `$ q& Wboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
1 ?5 N. g3 E' a9 j4 X9 LAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan) T$ }0 O" W4 H( i) Y0 q3 K* x! e
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced: g# ~8 G8 L+ r; ^
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
" s' F1 J8 X" Z$ C5 ~6 ]prices substantially eroded affordability and, even: J$ S( A2 S$ S1 F: t; y# q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
* O, ?1 E' o' R0 I, y! Ton average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.! F$ m$ L2 I, K! C* p4 h0 `
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
  \0 l6 t& ?+ [8 q% l; ~5 A0 Yresale price in February is evidence that past prices( k5 c+ X' q  w- P) s* i/ R+ S
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 N4 X# r6 w2 i9 O2 k8 |
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% ~4 T* O- [, z! N
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
( R4 U. v  }8 g! E0 ^! `2 F. b( T0 X9 g; BAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
9 Y( t) W1 n2 [0 Z3 C+ }' E7 Y2 |leg down over 2009.9 @& @4 h9 p5 z+ R8 ]4 F# R& Q. ~* `
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! O3 ?' e# ^( W& J( xAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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6 v& {5 A# w8 Q$ B9 I$ O+ E[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
4 E7 R1 f& T0 p2 }翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子' p9 D+ I/ p" [8 }

' k( q$ R) x) k8 z1 {& s' qhttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments/ w% B  y6 Q& j9 `$ j

- E, H' E& x1 }& S0 D6 F) |& A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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