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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.7 u( V1 }1 b" ^& b7 j4 K
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. ! p1 {) j+ z# ?. l1 s6 I# F0 E$ J

+ ], [; `- W" H* D"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. 3 L* [$ v4 K' c  F
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. , D- G) u& P6 i8 R- y$ u
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.
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( b+ d3 e' ]% a2 G% aMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. 9 l" x( e+ c7 d6 V4 R# Y

& N+ k# g' g2 U% h. ^( T& v1 \http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,$ S6 P) x$ R7 v0 W9 Q

" B* A( n9 A8 ^; e  G& r# X$ @( d[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
2 H, L8 ?% r6 W% i% q9 ] 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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" Z. Y1 l- B: M9 {  Z$ _[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 # r' }. W) N5 ]
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

! F7 k6 h, a% y; D! v8 M) g很多人都回学校深造去了
2 a( g2 r( h8 \5 E! U嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) J  E% S  Y5 T' O' ~8 qWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
6 i' f9 y" @4 V; m# P. wboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
& ^4 `6 T4 @7 l3 l) Hare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to, N( P) `& Z+ V* [! M: g
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household* p) v; L) r! `
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
) s. O: {  [. [% ffrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,6 S3 ?6 z' v5 D& g. l" H6 M% n
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and& K" M! b9 f7 i; |5 E
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous! _' H2 P. |& ^, O* D+ w) ]
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
/ n8 A! p& x# x4 Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
2 r$ B( Q: J- F3 |5 ~6 q8 L+ Zto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
: m9 `3 @+ N+ {& V7 ]3 xprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
8 Q6 l; q$ e( ?- myear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
1 y$ V1 s+ i+ i& P; phomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around9 E) \* a+ q2 @; z
30,000 new households will form in the province during
+ N- X. N/ N# M9 n% e" T& Q2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
6 O( w5 Q6 ?/ tEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s$ C+ y0 l( @3 J2 Y9 ?) E
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
8 w/ _! B8 C* R' _* D* Yduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta2 K7 y3 ^6 A% G9 T
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; ~2 Q5 q! C1 A% e" {6 hhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals2 X( x- U, z$ L* J& N7 h
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# ~% G# j+ l8 Y* u) a
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
* r7 F3 Q& i9 X9 y  \clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
% G. a$ R' d9 G6 E+ b! eexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 U, c! J  c- O% x2 M& @1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
5 k+ O* M' i, ysales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" b, O5 x6 V- N4 k. k5 Mbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
' I1 T5 @) j$ t# }, `/ a2 Htwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 [  I  Y* j! Y0 Y+ A$ kunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747& ?3 Q$ o) x7 O
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
3 c0 x: I% ~3 K4 _recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
- @7 t* e" M. w6 L  U4 E0 U; V, bresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s) H: w- f1 i* f6 }# t9 X
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories2 \8 P- z' _2 G/ U0 A9 S
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
5 m% v: o! l% lrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
3 r) [; N" y& X- L# G' _The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s1 ^) \- ?# S4 ?4 p$ M, |
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
$ P7 i" X* t8 ?" M6 l& qAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
; j0 ~- t! I# Y, A/ Dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced" t2 @8 j4 \- n' V$ v: e( W, E
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
8 \! Z* q, n: B/ J* g6 Rprices substantially eroded affordability and, even) w5 {. t5 f1 _& m2 y+ J
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 e0 v8 A7 L% p, \7 Mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% z2 r" X" A8 M" h8 [- K, l1 l
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average0 R1 D4 f! A' R& t# s% k2 Z% \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices. q+ m0 g1 {* l. Q) d* y! N+ z# l
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
8 r) @5 d0 w  xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
/ e9 }' v3 t+ H9 H8 n: S( G1 V2 Ideteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
) z$ k4 {" x  z, nAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 P) ]2 v/ A5 y" M; B
leg down over 2009.+ s& [$ z7 {# R

4 Z2 Y1 I, p  h[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
2 O6 s$ ~7 P4 U+ T& [/ IAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
1 K: L- Z8 z+ f$ T6 x) [翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
7 k) s, S1 n2 A, A4 {1 c
' G' `& |' j3 j2 H0 }http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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