埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2320|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
8 E* X# z$ u, k: e2 Z/ A5 T
* ^- L! x  c7 ^" x$ J" R. hTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. 1 i# k* R6 F& D6 K
8 g9 v0 ~& B2 ]4 r  ^  a3 @; z4 S# ~
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. % {1 R$ u+ Z$ u5 X
& P! O/ t: O( ]! e! G9 k" a
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. , H9 S% y- c7 D1 N) g: h

% x8 x! K! m, b  P+ {- ]Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller." z6 L! C$ o) w
, |' b4 p7 J8 t. m* v" w& L) m/ s( m+ n" O
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.  _2 x0 k2 Y$ r4 h4 k
5 J5 k/ n1 C* {6 G, u
"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. . V3 y$ G- o1 \* `+ m( A, n4 H
( P5 E( B% h$ _; F# i
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: U! c# L. D! q" E& w0 x
" D' L8 D( v) l! ?$ d6 D
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
9 g$ b' J' [" T4 ~
) @7 r2 z, {7 M2 u/ fhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

6 @9 m, J! s) z- z0 C1 V6 j
; L* Q* j& z' HTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,; G! W6 i0 ?5 J( t

9 y2 s0 ~, s; H& V7 y' `( L) A[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
大型搬家
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。9 ^- N! G0 `. W4 V+ S/ @6 M. [9 y
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。' j& j: e! v+ @( i* N" w$ ~
3 s: D1 [9 e" ~2 l, K! J
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
& g% e' L% m( Z7 u3 J; V跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
( Z- p4 Y, X0 u: R
很多人都回学校深造去了5 M. g4 R2 s+ s6 V; U* w* G
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
! \- T; C: n! O# M9 a/ C3 ~( ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
: \- {! Q& m6 I9 K3 `boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 l4 m+ Y' [) s: |- f
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" b6 E, K' c/ J# E) K$ B2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
3 w8 y- {+ n& K( O7 Jformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
6 Z) }  A" z5 hfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,/ Z9 W7 J: E* m, F: A
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and+ d" u: l/ A' o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
3 e$ a1 G0 C; w0 H5 }pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
1 _# U1 }, F$ G& ]9 W1 ?precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined1 Y; A/ f; k+ q: a3 J! E
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year' ^" V! z# C9 H7 e+ g) P
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this- Q% u' g  }$ u! v) y" C$ u: h
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
) j0 d* ?6 n3 ^$ L( hhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 `+ X* L2 ?! z- u
30,000 new households will form in the province during) H2 m6 f0 D' C( v/ P% p
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 ]" w; ]4 u- n. W0 I& ~
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s+ l0 a  _% C% j! n$ u
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
; ~2 j9 i& s8 C8 fduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
8 V- r9 ?1 W1 B& H8 ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
; ~9 J/ X. b6 Ehouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
. `; U: y6 h* Yduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging# K7 F$ }2 r+ d% N
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; u( M8 g! f! H- I( g2 Y' X& W1 y& M
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is$ G& Z; R& C( u0 Y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of  G: d" J8 z- r; a! H: _, M
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
' @5 X+ [1 g8 ~: R' I3 h  Lsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
3 s  b8 `6 r9 hbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
0 Q  E( N# I7 U) A5 N5 etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
$ L, N9 e* o2 aunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747* ]# _" e2 O; w
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest! x  r( R& Y1 {  v+ e
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
6 g7 ]$ Z- @1 S- N. c) Tresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s  Q9 D2 `3 W  N* U: l
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
, y# i. n; K  b  j: O- k  ]of new singles, and, with demand having cooled8 T' p: x$ l$ z8 \: m
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.+ j$ t) i6 i: u2 o+ Q0 w, p
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s) w- K1 Z# e" k# x
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.0 s. v- Z0 @* h2 ?* x9 H: H
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
& ~7 X8 k' F. Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced3 z) `) y/ [# M; J+ o$ T  _: p
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
. B  f: I. {4 ^8 k: \prices substantially eroded affordability and, even- Y+ f+ E5 p; ]- L
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners$ b2 C* Q$ X) U& w% Q6 W) h
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.2 F* T1 ~/ X' q4 e  {  B
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
& |% x. Z2 w! M! Iresale price in February is evidence that past prices9 k* H5 l; c. O( m: n: t% P
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
+ q3 s1 P. i( E* e3 N7 `homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
9 J  h4 L: c- Y( n) jdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,0 u+ o5 y0 _6 L" d, c
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%( z2 O2 v( q1 w* }1 }* E; n
leg down over 2009.
. s0 v* D0 H8 X% e! P+ Q; w: U: @3 u& D, V0 l8 l
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
3 i7 G7 G+ J- T$ j  o% j1 PAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
4 L; |0 Q  G6 c  D
$ m) r$ s7 b( O; z$ v; V; m* e3 j
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 2 u# ^9 F% ^3 L1 m' E; y$ W
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子& J- I5 {% J9 s" _
! Y( @/ c- P5 X0 Z
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments5 |& x( A! C9 W) t, O  g8 O

1 z( L# v4 R% i  D% g% ~+ p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-5-4 19:50 , Processed in 0.151527 second(s), 21 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表