埃德蒙顿华人社区-Edmonton China

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 2347|回复: 10

ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

[复制链接]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
  j0 t2 x  D% o. z+ K3 y8 ~: p( j8 |! u
TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
; U% i* d% P% @/ t6 S3 @/ T  b- x' \
The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
7 ]; o4 A5 [# N# n2 r' |! p3 W8 M- ?$ h4 R
"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. " H( P) ]: W9 W+ T" y: {
' [( f' N/ t+ `  p& H2 [; I
Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.3 t4 M" x6 S+ [) @

; j" l) B- I! x' xTD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.5 l, e. A; Q/ F, O0 F: t, A

( b  _2 u  Z/ _* H"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. $ o" g- ~5 \, S; H  i- ?1 V
3 V7 U+ Z- F! ]8 g) B
TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.0 m/ S. \5 W. B9 b0 w. f2 s, Z' ?
! [( ^* @# X+ a) ]! u4 K5 y5 M
Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
. _0 T( U9 O" ]2 v5 n! c; ?& i" P5 a. O
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
' ~3 G' Y" E) n) ~* z2 L( b8 _

, b9 J5 J8 Z% C" S6 I+ QTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,% o: P( i0 y; |" C3 q9 m
+ y+ C; _, q9 F$ E$ v
[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(180) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。9 j/ j. U6 `0 u- l
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! n# a4 c8 U. S+ w7 V
! G+ J/ C+ }: i+ F' A
[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
鲜花(2) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 * l1 w4 G. s+ Z$ ], I0 }* g
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

4 n6 T0 }, \; O$ Y; O很多人都回学校深造去了
' M* O3 X) @( S嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta/ B0 Y! ]# `2 z: _- n
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
; @7 h; _- I. A: {3 C. C9 S6 eboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 a" e! f  L  y2 N6 G: \$ W! c
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to# ]+ S3 N) S3 N% N$ m$ c
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
: e: W* Z. |) P. C+ C# W) Aformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
% l5 y+ }- a  w7 D; f  k" Lfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ l/ Q; b( [0 h+ f& Wthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and4 v# o7 j' t7 t+ L
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
4 R: j3 {9 e* J0 Y8 {0 F( A. G1 mpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
0 B7 q& A4 `3 Cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 |0 o& B1 U$ M0 p
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
- s6 S, K) I, nprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this# a& U' i, v4 C# ]
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,: l1 W7 m8 z: ?/ g9 M
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around$ u5 h* G5 n3 u1 U: h( w' B6 P
30,000 new households will form in the province during4 L9 r1 T, f/ T/ z
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.: T# m; B7 ~; |+ g
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
9 `8 b' o, r2 T+ J, z1 g! g/ uhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 ?  a. c6 e& b# }) g3 n
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta+ S' z2 W1 z# v. |2 w
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
2 Q9 N( R$ `4 I& h6 N4 Whouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals6 ^" ?" }8 N8 w) v& t& _
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging: M! b/ M( A* T0 K# f
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories; k+ u( W% D6 H$ V) a
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is3 ]( o1 K8 @0 e0 ^# @2 X3 }
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of+ z: P+ N$ \: E: U- a
1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
  \/ T! P( O1 h' T; s& Asales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive; ?: |# f2 T" p" g
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in9 A8 p; {0 m0 {) p3 `0 e. c
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
/ D- S' Z7 v% z$ y! b$ _* Y& Junsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747" S! c' ]3 z& d0 g% g
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest: x' H, S8 q" y3 ?8 {
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the9 c; U: Q( _/ r/ e3 y. ~- B5 K; x
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
  C! t$ u5 x6 E/ G9 k: H# h- umajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
1 P  g/ e' O6 N+ ]5 \! M8 ~* jof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
, a1 F# N3 F5 b5 crapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
5 k1 C( @, q2 c  U$ a6 WThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s3 s$ I" [5 E9 _: y+ l
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
7 o) g( D8 b& i" iAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 j% T3 {3 E, o% t0 q, L: q* h/ rhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced% a2 j( n' R4 S  Y$ P: n
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale- ?4 e  u, ?4 L3 b" G) G
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
& f  K) x7 J' Nthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners, d: g7 V) n: ^) y8 p: G  e4 r# E5 u* \! j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
, v' G/ y- ~# T& r7 @, F1 OThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
  l6 ]( e: \3 ^8 w/ w' y" }resale price in February is evidence that past prices
) T$ j& @( y# C7 T/ Wexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
* p& k% L% J' A  X) @4 khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% p7 |$ P6 n! _1 E
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
! q% J8 @' i6 t2 Y% T/ lAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%. y- Q; T9 h1 z" r/ v* T0 A; y  K
leg down over 2009.! p& f# @' P* G/ W! T$ W% I1 |
  t8 }1 y1 Z, {* ^1 K! D
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 _6 ?- F6 }* q, SAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

4 P/ k8 y6 k' h: ^* l  @# x+ n8 n7 G7 W# Y; v  N
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
3 u% ^2 b$ T: @# c% j7 H2 g翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子0 z4 m' w( o3 L  W1 f' a2 H/ z
8 t' u1 y2 W7 V' U
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments. |4 w. K8 b8 P% i2 K: e3 r. L

$ t6 U) [4 T% J# r# p- A[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
鲜花(52) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

联系我们|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|埃德蒙顿中文网

GMT-7, 2026-5-9 18:27 , Processed in 0.186140 second(s), 20 queries , Gzip On, APC On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2021, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表