 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|

楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
|
显示全部楼层
TD Special Report节选
Alberta+ \ k6 H$ \3 e2 }- a
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its6 b# f2 v# D; Y& k5 I+ s0 v0 k X
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton; \) d5 v- R# B3 _; X: A7 x9 ~4 S
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 A; M8 q# O$ @: K+ T' {6 G
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
/ w4 y* }- [! K iformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided/ ], N2 S& ]9 e/ d
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold, e/ U) ?9 S9 S
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and2 ]) {- Y: ]; x$ n" o
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
+ {# r3 ~: I, K' B' b. y* upace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
9 H3 Z9 e$ A- h) cprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined; ^) q# K" H7 l2 F4 R. g7 ~/ y
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
0 q8 g. P& j6 X/ _1 \) vprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this; _ z9 P3 Y- [! D. s. j
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 L+ \$ }6 e8 \# ^$ |2 H) f2 ~homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
/ V- {3 V% a# O& e$ Z6 I$ m30,000 new households will form in the province during8 D7 h# |) b3 [. u' ~) s6 J
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year./ t! V2 H4 G8 p3 S/ u6 _
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
4 I' R5 V+ x9 j% e5 I4 K+ P& W& Vhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%3 A/ x" \5 W( _1 V( r$ w6 T& k
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta, X, Q2 V5 q, D$ b
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new( ~4 ^7 R0 L6 I9 y( O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals/ o6 S& J/ `3 F1 F; v& r( E( P3 m
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
4 }$ i+ e9 E6 [; d; Z8 E2 Wsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
; i% t+ p, s( o+ u: G, T/ Xclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
; P2 N4 x; W5 U* C5 s* yexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 g) }2 J, `9 Y- h6 U$ O1 s" S1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
& x: ]: B$ R' a! _3 ^sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive1 r5 i$ J$ e- C" c
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in* ]# e+ y6 m$ { s9 o
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in1 A8 _2 Z1 L# d( C% {" \! n6 K+ p
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
' `& r1 _5 p `, w9 G, d eunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
5 m0 P: s1 y) I7 O& Vrecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the6 y% C% B9 y2 S8 X) j
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
# S8 v6 F& M w1 bmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
( ?* L% N% q* E5 _9 V; qof new singles, and, with demand having cooled$ J! B1 e& S6 ?" I( m& x
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
" h" w) }1 k) X- c2 iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
9 V, j+ s( [/ p# z: X/ }% Vboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 q3 B0 o; E& p4 | ^Although income growth was very strong, Albertan2 G2 T$ {: ~( O k a! T
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
. K- q6 ~6 Z# grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale1 S& [( R. n5 G! r6 p, Z
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even! i( Y! i' S& H4 k# i- _
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners' l. t( U" ^: P. j
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.* A6 p8 P- t. H3 h; f
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average( {' {+ }2 l/ ~- c" C4 |" M
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
" l3 j8 G' U" j8 F" I4 Fexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
" X, I; w0 X. d1 a+ R' C5 g" r4 Phomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) d! D, T) j8 h! N7 c# p$ M% f; f, [deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% V+ S. R& E7 K) e. ?* e, M+ ` @. v
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
/ y d$ E" R1 tleg down over 2009.
) D7 R* ~( v5 H7 z' l) I9 G7 [7 c5 ~' r. z, j% F- ~" S
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
|