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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 {4 x+ y8 t2 V TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& K9 G6 ]; A- ]1 h2 [. K% Q) omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive' _: Y4 |; f E' _) t7 A8 h
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 L1 D/ D9 I: { N: oaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 c4 V! ?3 M+ s "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! `8 Q- u; R. ^0 m6 {1 k' _5 esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( L6 w8 F" U3 ?- O' H; Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 U5 b: n1 r8 Z A% Hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") f7 M+ J; A$ X, _" O5 @( E2 k8 e% ~
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, T L7 l: U* x" j& i( V" {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! Q, J3 b: y4 E uwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have! w; o7 F( y' f0 [% _
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 y, U. U$ I0 q' p: u; H$ }
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 y+ ?* {5 T( y8 R' ?$ M3 U$ w9 c; t d
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 D' z" U9 F1 {9 V1 [$ b% `home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& K' c5 v) r# ?3 t2 n) n" A4 ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ @" t; y: B! a7 w' s# X+ E* k
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' Y1 [! Z! X& K9 h# O/ r
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.2 a* [" R( n. F1 O% a* f1 Y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ L2 Z8 c3 z* d2 z0 N4 i3 Z) dmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) |9 B" a) h7 Mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 d2 Y3 x8 s3 ^8 l* `; w
historically depressed levels.
7 v- G- L, E- p) y7 \! S! q% l Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' n& ]3 l9 |5 Y* Oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 G5 O" E' g; sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" [0 L# F ?7 G( b/ a9 w( ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& ?% j& }! G6 ?' ^, v* d8 I: xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
1 g" G% s5 C; {3 k0 o& dmonths ahead," added Hogue.4 ]8 R; A4 d* ]
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest6 u. U. t# _" |1 n2 G" q
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& B5 l0 D5 g+ j7 T% j
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 u5 E. N: }/ s4 t4 D
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 N& F5 h' ^" q' ]7 Z+ c* `
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ {+ {3 U$ X* d& _cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 K' ?( H, B+ l$ _1 h4 Z
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 K% J1 A% v4 J4 t1 J b The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. d9 z5 q( H1 v4 U2 h& Mbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. T1 i+ Z) G4 E5 {- r d; q9 ~
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ ?/ e* [0 G$ p0 p; v
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ p! n9 {! G3 c# F a$ Q& f3 j( Hcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
5 _9 V$ t& k9 `0 dFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! J, _, ^# I( ?/ U7 v8 ~costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% Q% O2 h1 a" O% s8 \; ]per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- k6 `9 T# u7 H: ?9 U1 d
# q4 S/ U, \+ \4 C& B <<) P: T2 O" x2 O% p
Highlights from across Canada:
8 y) u3 P6 q2 s. k" K- f5 L! F& P" G; O
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 l* S2 s) F0 v" h# }: o, Z! G intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
7 ]9 y$ \. L5 S( q* @4 F home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ n) A( E# ] n" D) g! W
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ P3 \( a7 `- p; h1 `) x' I since about the middle of 2007.2 f8 }9 Q; x" m( H4 \) t
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
y- n' c Q7 G" x frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' L6 }! c- g, p; e5 [6 M0 N: d
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still& X/ X6 D* b7 o( T
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. K2 @% o7 s9 b. x1 ]: f poor affordability levels.
* ?; q" m& ]% m- J4 M; y6 n" M" |% n - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 e# o! q% x; H" G vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# W6 f" i s d9 m4 _7 Z8 g+ q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. p6 x4 @1 P9 Q# G
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# w% U5 t, u/ S; o; p6 ^+ A
minimize any downside risks.
0 w+ r# E4 F: @/ y( h- S3 l3 D7 l - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
- m7 g4 J( S; L" A" }$ p conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ p: }. n8 }% T0 b- i3 S$ ?
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
; e D- R; F6 E* _ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# c s' J; @/ i# i
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- c! E. J f% L( D# Q- g9 e1 d - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 ~- `# q0 ?: W7 D9 b3 u
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* r/ ?! s' A8 _' ] far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, a6 A) r$ Q: y: B
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
9 n7 v, I5 t0 V% q2 F4 W ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! C8 C$ u8 s9 Y; ^; D9 W; Q# ]
modestly in recent years.
6 [7 k6 U* z! Q% [+ h0 L* x/ R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
, K$ ?: k8 M6 \" n6 J) y: Z' h+ K general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 F# v- P% E0 y+ c$ ~
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ j8 \( x3 w% C8 t: M7 N price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability8 T. s' ]% O+ ?2 K4 @( B
following two years of deterioration.! A' I6 h# {& K/ B2 Y3 _$ }
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