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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 L, s A3 e% N S7 L
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# y5 e( i9 v( W& i/ j
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 B9 R! n1 A m3 ?- e5 D. O2 agains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 C0 h, [( C2 j7 F
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 Q: |! Y" ?+ E9 ~ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ G. p+ d( p+ c7 c7 q: g
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 d6 s, e' o4 V v4 B- I- M2 uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 L% c0 z- Q& i! s
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 i1 u. ^% v4 I% S5 r V8 N
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 p K4 b' G1 w' C- C6 Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing," r* C. C9 E$ u1 }
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
C% w p0 \* d. b1 M- r0 p9 V! |sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., t3 U1 I; k2 H0 n) I
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the/ s" f( [; Y* K& G7 a
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. Q- y, p2 o* R0 X5 M0 {home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008." f1 o# R6 `; I- x8 M" u
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! o% ?: H4 Q1 kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 o7 G) A, U9 X V; H7 k2 N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# U6 x* `0 V. ?- v# D W0 [ Y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( h/ Z6 r) x% R) `# L' c
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in6 u; x) F! u# |8 O# f" u2 s
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
+ H8 m3 e- X2 J0 i# ^/ B# Rhistorically depressed levels.
& c0 U7 o2 J7 N$ c- P Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! Y' A* I0 a# ?* W" n: ^2 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 z% [' r* _ P3 ?8 P; X
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 W& ]' n, [7 v2 W7 D3 s
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 _2 e( g* ^3 X
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# N* }( O0 O3 l' @# u
months ahead," added Hogue.
; v. Z9 b0 c" _' ]4 J1 h RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 a! j; D" L; r+ A9 p }cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
M' |* k4 u$ s1 e" X$ k& Q5 G42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
2 J# e, ?$ Y7 H: A The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 l" Y) C8 e5 R5 p+ O) a0 va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ a/ q& Y/ g* b4 d7 m% e: c" M0 C
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% o+ r7 d% r1 r* x4 P8 u( L) g$ Q
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 @) Q. c* J, L& X6 P6 d The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 g H! y7 d% \# j& \6 X1 R4 E/ u8 S
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: D l3 Y- i; y [
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" P& ^* ]# P8 `1 M" }including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* n. o$ _( k6 g) W1 v9 X6 W X
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 ^1 r. ?4 U" s' ]1 U8 fFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# n H! h; }2 n7 j
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
' R' `# m; z; n* S- V; P( Dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 ]5 ^0 }0 [) L! c5 w
5 ]+ [5 U8 Q$ b
<<1 {3 e. p8 R4 a% ]
Highlights from across Canada:
% R. `) u5 I! @& X
3 d. m. B D0 }0 g+ K3 a" P& F - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
2 @: Y$ l% z+ O# L! C$ Y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 g$ H. w* [- g2 E. C8 X/ f9 x
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" S7 p( w( [7 | B! Z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track; B" T3 d$ N4 X1 q
since about the middle of 2007.
3 y1 |1 Z }" U) c' T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, L7 u9 u8 L6 e2 c& {8 b frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to8 a! r1 k' |' [# @& i- u
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! r1 E6 |* y: ?' {' n7 J7 _; V
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 n, s: K! N3 e6 I4 W- ~, a poor affordability levels.
* d }3 |$ @! @" Q1 \/ u, N - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( B7 e" w) F7 |( L! U. j vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ H2 F, p1 l, c4 | prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 O Y6 L2 k7 x7 @9 z% E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! r) z, u6 Z: p* v5 D6 [3 G minimize any downside risks.
$ I2 w# O+ @; f6 U1 i - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" a2 | |/ K6 o3 d/ n. @ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" T' ^! e9 g* h) h
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# U F8 G8 R* l$ z* M1 U8 P
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 m4 O7 R- _% @7 Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- k% O) T" V1 a - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& W$ U. \6 C5 m- v) q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus. |9 v5 T1 [. V+ y, f
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
* y3 L/ y3 ~# r8 r1 e5 x8 Y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 v7 y- I6 f+ { E* F' y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- _' P) I# p! T0 U2 k* Q
modestly in recent years.
' o# Q6 m9 P0 W1 c% _+ X - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, L- V% O' Q* N' L
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 w1 O- y5 a' z ]
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ ^( j' I' f! V+ G0 t" T price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 z# _4 h: F9 ^) i1 ~9 x following two years of deterioration.7 _7 O" s! k5 d2 t! Y
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