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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 O2 f' O9 a6 [5 K- Z: z" f% V7 B% v: M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, D1 B2 q, \+ x1 Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 c- I* q$ k7 ?gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 K- ]- q: b# @% w8 }6 S! v* N* Jaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# @# W7 T" b! v9 o! I5 T "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ Q. K3 W% |1 j4 k" R% e+ \2 v. M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! O/ }0 e! `: }. l1 A) v; mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: y4 N/ x. `- D: o/ n0 u* z5 ^4 b6 W# G
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! B& ^, q5 X- t, N
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 X; v& w% F0 S/ K6 j. {$ o9 bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
' }) c! f# k! M% H, N3 N9 @which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have1 \. [, M/ }) l2 i
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* ^7 E& N$ V& j3 S7 T The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 E3 u( {( d- z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# e( T4 g8 Z8 O3 Qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% Z u2 @* V1 d2 y8 K5 d# {, ^! DAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% C! C1 s& z- r/ t# |5 l5 g8 b; ?
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
9 t/ o, a/ \9 z: q: Fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
5 e1 T6 B; f' z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets# x, C% R2 Q; r7 x; v" d+ l' ^
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 z6 _! k: b) y( R9 \4 G6 N8 kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' }; D) d6 E1 N; u( I- Z6 Y* fhistorically depressed levels." O: x/ }3 I- q3 T* f- _
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 |. S5 k$ N$ U* `7 R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 U6 O+ F5 V. V1 L/ [
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
) f) ?3 X O' K' l9 Jhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This. f# T+ P+ Y, y. ^5 g5 {8 E& T% c
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ L4 o7 t' o5 q& d i2 ~3 F
months ahead," added Hogue.* ?4 V, u% {- k" D
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 a. @, w# N* o8 u) [) Lcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" v/ z- Y. R D8 h
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( M# V/ Q' `! {* c7 {1 L The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% N" G! N) z5 I/ Z" }
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ l B& W0 y+ `* [1 n$ m4 P" q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
% W+ ~ _: z3 l4 |/ L! ]takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 f0 _7 d- D, {$ H3 l e0 O; v [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: U' l+ l |: ~ o/ zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& q" w8 p- O9 ~, |- gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# h% g8 S3 J9 l( ?( ~including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 ~! a+ E; _6 l+ e1 m( q$ j2 s
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: T, M3 l6 x9 F3 G' D. O
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( Q' O3 k! S/ q* E+ Ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 E+ s# r. d% ~) X" l; H! Qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ }. M I! N' Y9 f$ ~; g
: B3 `: M4 ?8 `# P# v. ~$ }
<<
4 ?! I* C6 h1 E: o Highlights from across Canada:
]: o2 I! _" T2 J5 {5 p- x# h) R! v( b( ~- V( _9 A7 ~5 ]7 b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
; h6 N, ? C) G- ^ D intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- M, E- j; Y; v2 `" C3 [4 P
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 U3 A+ V c% Q; C6 I
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# U% k5 T3 z6 S since about the middle of 2007.
2 ^5 F- d; ]7 D3 @, ~; @; H - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! @( b! }! I, L( K7 A frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to! F0 ~$ d" k0 y6 ^$ A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, R) c; J* F* Z' T2 V2 Z, h8 i3 m# `
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 u- i, d9 ^0 W/ ^
poor affordability levels.
" X/ k7 p$ K# g, d& f( Y, H - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% v% m2 m6 H$ q4 @0 W: E% h vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 I) d' g4 H) S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( y1 D" p, l/ o+ W# J
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; {, F* e: e7 F3 \" k
minimize any downside risks.% j0 U3 m. f G3 c, k
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; r. w$ J7 F0 ~. r6 [
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is A. q8 i5 T: ]8 R: O
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ [. x# @4 T$ u6 V. I' l 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# C* }, h( {3 _3 ?& o- W5 |
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# r/ u, ~- S8 Q, g& I - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& ]: @+ N+ @$ k5 P) W1 M* U Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( s, B; b2 Y. O9 x; |
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 t l- x/ U. D. I4 j; @! g
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 ~8 g: M9 M8 g3 m5 }5 U
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
2 ?* G! f! A/ O& l modestly in recent years.- t: C7 q$ {- B: _+ ~1 M# D9 b8 |
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* _, `. w0 _* s' k6 Z9 ]" U
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ L8 F4 c, n1 k7 T+ y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 p3 Y% L8 F3 N5 K& h2 W& f- A
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ u, x7 j8 |6 _ following two years of deterioration.
" z. Y2 Y& s1 P; L >> |
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