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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & K! Q% d; d+ K% a+ |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 C. U2 j5 O, J& O3 omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ T+ q h" J0 _, V
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 R- u, B( _& Z, n5 ` \0 V8 M+ z9 {
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
4 G( i) m, `+ P% q, Y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ S& s9 r9 n7 U
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 T3 q8 N8 L: A% _$ k4 a" _, i. \3 f
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
E$ f1 I1 W; Z& Q' qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
1 K7 V, `7 b; y, N' L, {8 u RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is) h# P( W- v, ?! [ I
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 w- f$ a' @; Y4 F3 Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' \( ? S+ e! e Q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., \, T/ i0 s0 z2 i; C! w* C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ I0 u6 c$ {1 z( s
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! L1 y8 Y5 d( m# v
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( {+ y* t9 L7 K5 o! |* K
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& @0 w4 B7 K) Y& i0 W
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and: ]% S$ h: b l+ }$ D
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. e2 i4 ^* [; o# y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" f6 ~3 h7 t4 l3 Y smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in: c6 l: Z7 q6 D3 u9 A3 [" S# T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at: W, Z7 ~0 o$ n/ b3 H! r' M
historically depressed levels.
/ \! z n4 P4 ~1 ^6 o2 A4 i Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- F. x1 u* H6 }( q# U7 V
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) r8 {" C( ?, j0 T' G. Qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 Y5 A; i, q2 b. ]hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This5 y+ d- q0 v0 Z2 z& E
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the8 \* B) \* i8 m" G
months ahead," added Hogue.% m: Z3 K3 f+ P* T' _! w1 U; |/ u
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( Y, V9 S+ s% O5 B) T
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 p( U) `( i- h }0 o2 F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 b: i0 D1 p: v- E! _8 o" Z
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% f1 A( }* D; k" B$ o0 U2 V: x- T* a
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 H' y) W1 R6 H8 Dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" R1 P: h# j6 ?( m
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 ^/ j# `+ k6 a( W0 I* V/ u The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# S- G& o. w, [
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* f' H* k4 D O; X8 \3 ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 y' L0 a% m1 o3 o0 \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, U9 B) G4 z3 k/ P: L& l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" W( b0 D9 P% B. ^. JFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 y! e! M6 w* p! I. a6 L. P( B
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 500 v* q% v P8 h8 [7 ]9 r7 M' f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 y, ]& m1 d# F6 K2 |
/ R; M7 [( I% ~" w
<<
/ X6 I3 ]7 E5 A4 Z Highlights from across Canada:5 o. ]5 g4 ^+ c; `! l! h
' j5 v1 H. X3 B. _
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( k9 m+ a- \& F; W! \7 u# v
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ n- D! g2 f1 f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 r& ?" p9 g: S" v7 N# a' c only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; b2 u: Y4 D" Z" ~5 N( \ z9 a since about the middle of 2007.8 _* `4 j4 F6 y6 D4 [+ l
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
9 _/ C& F: C( o) _: h" V5 F; ~ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. K$ n5 _+ A$ s* t& k decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, L" U0 b/ E4 n6 v* A) d7 I; P' X largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# Y! \$ c$ w4 k8 L8 K! A; A+ t, P: S poor affordability levels.
9 G" U; l% Y% L - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
p" V6 I6 u/ L0 s) r0 i vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
/ _1 d- c( g! a. \5 T prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 L/ z/ S' M- r Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) x7 K7 P- \3 x% l; Q2 m+ K minimize any downside risks.
3 t4 ^! B: L( d( n3 i2 v( t - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! w" i$ _3 ^. `. b: F6 L
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, G4 Q2 C' P7 R1 `' o
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ x% K6 j3 {! s 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( O) |: d3 ^; P1 z3 r7 m9 H
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
* g3 J: w9 [* |/ e: e4 A2 R) _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 k+ { g$ I3 H: v5 V6 p9 r8 D
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! J* @( [ f4 ]# ]3 a4 m
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' n" p' g( _( J1 k' n
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 w1 s6 @; P3 c) c6 t, ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 m( W" w3 O7 t; z6 M
modestly in recent years.
7 c8 S6 S; O( o3 w" m+ o - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
) s+ C3 `5 D6 n( f! _* R6 C( z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot. S: i4 N. T$ R: p) A1 p5 x% f% b
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ ?2 p: @# V6 `1 M
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ r& A( Y9 x* `8 ]3 Z
following two years of deterioration.
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