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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # w: y9 ]+ r8 r5 \& n
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 R7 ^1 [9 t4 ?
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 R; i: y% {8 c2 r3 D
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 q- h9 l$ { w( Y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# ~' f7 t7 f- v) S: H
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 n8 O. f6 g; t" s2 Usaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 ?; ^6 r& s' {4 J9 A8 U6 |
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
: \ V% ~3 X3 H, M" Lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 J- @7 f" X0 s/ T( P
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( F9 [: Y ]1 N9 C0 g
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 q( {- O; t/ ~8 h( p0 B( ~7 g( mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ a. `5 }* ?1 L$ w
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) R- `: D, ^/ z3 D4 f The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( K3 z2 W3 i. C$ U3 b1 Y+ w' Uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a G) B" y. p% l2 q* g3 _! {' ~) {
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. n% U5 h2 M+ @6 q) z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& r1 E: p g$ w: T1 t! k1 g1 pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 H5 Q- N1 ^4 h. ~the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* S5 ?/ i! g: Q- f9 }. w, I0 Q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" {5 N2 }9 b4 q/ [; G/ |may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 ^% t! s; t4 @8 ?0 _9 f5 a
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 ^3 R" D7 D" R+ Y& }
historically depressed levels.% ?5 h$ z( c" W; j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. Q/ n J6 O' D' R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( K4 {( I/ g) s. h. @prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 _: A: t) T0 K: g* A* B
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& M' l" |0 V& L. p1 ?
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
3 x) T1 R2 j4 k( Z; zmonths ahead," added Hogue.1 m6 Z7 V9 f) x6 n0 B% P
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
$ e8 T3 W. m# e' f5 G5 ^cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 t$ d, L& A+ _$ C42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
" k Q; p! H2 B' i+ a+ y% z2 P The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. F4 ^( _, S- F! T4 T. k
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* @- B7 m* I5 O5 C8 ^, L2 lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- M+ I0 ]/ V1 i4 j a. e4 S& W) Etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 U4 R7 [# w& b7 X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is: @7 a8 s7 O! [3 f
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ x9 C- O7 A" W( r1 y; l
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 K/ B0 Y6 h2 T( O3 _1 r2 ]( r* iincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 \3 P9 v B5 ~6 h
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
! t- N% G1 }) q) `7 p% c% OFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 \, W5 }2 C4 L6 zcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 B0 z2 O( {4 n' j! w( F9 X
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 _; r# O: _& p( Z: ~) E5 k
8 {+ N% s; T4 N# O <<
, U( A% x" N3 J- Q; W Highlights from across Canada:3 J0 q- o! Y$ T+ m+ L2 }
) H$ o5 Z- m+ |- W
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 k/ d# p. G) ~% u* A9 Y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing1 O( F. U! w: q! \9 `4 f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% X1 y* u6 ^! Z q+ ? only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
0 c) z: `: C$ J3 l7 a' W since about the middle of 2007.
- f( ?( b3 f0 s5 X( |% L3 Z - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the. Y1 m+ \7 T3 ]9 Q \: b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. Z9 e. q) x; a' I1 Q# E+ v9 C/ f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
7 t! }" ~; U f$ O O1 F largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* T- p8 _) k9 L poor affordability levels.
# [+ k. q6 q, n0 q* s - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 Y7 |8 L( }+ x7 t+ S4 v; @2 j vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 Z# ?1 g- Z# B) R& Z; G; a3 W
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 g! I- |! Y6 y1 @8 O8 a6 U( F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 j3 Z6 R) a# v* x4 R9 Q7 x- q! f+ O/ V
minimize any downside risks.4 D+ I3 n' s3 O
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" w1 Y7 Z1 a9 B" z/ _; U conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 K! {1 n; n- x+ G4 ^4 q$ x. J
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& x3 B6 _ p6 i5 d; Z& E 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: S! i6 X- Y& t% A" [
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 B9 u) G. F8 J7 S) X - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 q# b' n- |. f0 j8 Z( \ |& [ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 G" r: N, k" v2 g& Z& q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up. @: V, L$ t7 M P, A) p
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' t& W/ _' Z/ j' A. a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 N j: l; Q% e( k. X" k
modestly in recent years.; B( P# M% |& S" M& N1 m* Z- b* F
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 q# K6 \: j/ Y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! T" V& Q5 m! v5 D6 l$ v spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward N7 y# e1 K6 n& s) Y# E+ d. Z$ G& E
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability( K3 w% N5 [6 E u
following two years of deterioration.: @, X" X6 G( ?& o* U! H( [* @
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