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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 r5 c5 V; a/ q% D! g
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ _7 W$ ~, w5 m/ |* r
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 h9 e& m1 a- o n4 c4 O- ~gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- J1 \% [2 s& u$ c* h
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 n: n& E# }* H* ?
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 A! U% l& ^& N3 @2 R: P$ f# U
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
7 u$ a' l" j& V# A% x. _7 |# Uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* h! |$ w4 ^) ^( Wmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 t; y# ]/ D# d$ N7 K3 i2 _: F
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( [" {6 F- }) q8 D- V7 F
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) L2 j( z1 m/ c9 J$ @6 f
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ Y- p, _9 N6 L0 M, x' F
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes./ [* `8 ]" W0 Z" X/ z% [+ [6 _
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# R& }5 @3 P' z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 ~ J: L, C4 a. A2 {home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 ]' x- S( J/ Y6 z* _
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 s* d: v( H v2 _3 _standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) a5 C d' D) q! `) l/ t
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 C+ c& k! p! q+ J% c According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
" z4 G& c9 |4 O& l9 Pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( P- O8 B5 t8 T- Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 o5 D0 k# G) d% n4 a# p& h6 Y$ {historically depressed levels.
' }; H4 Y) b7 ^5 ]) w8 J Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 J, c6 H. E7 T9 t: m, O; _) _. n! B
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 u" N `' T, R
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 A r3 V$ S6 Y2 b
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 R# b" X+ f Z, q; c7 u# L1 tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 r, {) w( f- {- ^( Y5 |7 Emonths ahead," added Hogue. O. q; l9 y3 f+ G0 S8 a6 s! k3 t
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, u u3 e7 \2 D1 e2 g8 @cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 X% }7 x; G k1 C Q7 z' t; O42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* [3 X+ M& O# y8 l4 Y1 v1 f- W
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 ~3 A7 q. u! A% `/ P
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 h' w$ f+ r$ Q1 V/ Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, z6 |& O# d J; w" c" U# T
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( t7 e' J2 r5 w% Q4 S5 c
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 z! c0 u3 P$ d! T8 ]8 @based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 L7 `2 @5 W* g; Gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 B4 e+ y, t- m2 K. ?
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ s% f- D- r. l' `' _2 F# ^condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
9 R6 ?& l0 }% N# F( fFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" m R! H1 p6 |- v8 I
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) V, k# H8 a, @( ~5 z/ {8 D2 a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.4 n- O* e0 S7 D4 G2 b
' K) Q" G- N) c' A
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1 r. {3 s* W4 O( J Highlights from across Canada:
9 A( [* ?% y* s$ }: b# K# p8 A* Z) ^1 V/ e: e
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 f( q* v1 V+ P5 a9 m# n1 ]
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; D) }1 { Y1 ? home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' T e" r% M* d* ?+ H- k only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
! A4 G) o {* N. |, I( D/ O6 C since about the middle of 2007.5 Y" B! C- W7 h; P `
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& J5 M- s. w, G8 b# F
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 a5 G. n" {; Y2 c
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still( E1 D+ p+ _, |+ H8 a* q/ K4 O
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( y% p- Z, |$ R* q( t# x% @
poor affordability levels.
- Y% Y6 ^4 M' K) S- B4 o2 b, l - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* s2 A3 c2 P- Z' h/ A vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 f: }% `% [6 g9 |$ H. _
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 B8 ~8 s+ P- t& u
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" G! L6 p; e2 U. e( v! A7 Z$ U minimize any downside risks.
! `! ~& s. x) E: ?$ u7 {3 h - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* z, Y3 ~* r8 v
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) [0 J. C( |- t4 d- q$ p. m unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' a; `. e, [. ~( v, v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% A, k. R! J. J8 ~8 H/ E" A4 e5 v0 v
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ B# I4 Z7 T+ p r& t - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
( s A' \3 y) M0 P# p) N7 m; \ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus: I+ ?4 ^( p1 E
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& [! `2 e' v7 a/ F0 `8 B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 J$ N8 _/ X" N3 {- A R& v) }$ P
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* J# h+ z. b) r/ _3 U$ s6 S8 F1 L& t/ A modestly in recent years.
; F5 X" E+ Y, z2 W6 q- ^6 S. W - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
8 [+ l/ i! L4 C- P1 m general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) D. B) x* [3 D: G Q
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 k) a0 A/ f# K* g' Q W9 R price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, o0 Q2 P" C6 A, ^! M
following two years of deterioration., y9 {' }; n$ f8 D
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