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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
5 C9 \( L/ \( d; k) Y, t4 H# i. \ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 `8 n; S# ^6 P3 W* _+ }/ V6 R
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. p7 ^# l7 m& r" t5 j
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 r- E, D/ _$ h, B# ~' Uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ h) W& @8 j) \3 o" Y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 h3 J7 | g: C/ u
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is s+ ~9 q# t: m, V7 Y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 ]8 |6 o) O; j% Y5 T# s1 f
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 {( ]4 g$ w+ S7 T4 D RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is# T0 P" i' n2 U7 r
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 t$ w1 }3 w' j6 c4 l6 |) T
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have5 {, |$ f% Z) V6 k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( f: d# b; B3 i( L/ v4 v
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; Z* X/ W$ g8 ]6 ~! wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; c; }) h4 B$ @* S b
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 F! r1 ~. q+ [4 UAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: N% y# @" S$ u, c: r" S$ C" ~
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) O7 j& }5 @3 P3 Othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# V- O7 J/ D* u8 Y, D, ?& L
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
8 w( K; r) o, c# F% v& I Fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 \ n6 a; w' V
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 G: c+ i1 K$ {/ J' U/ M
historically depressed levels.
& q) j4 b' s- F8 A$ A Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
q3 q6 y5 M; M' j8 H0 nof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
8 H1 x$ k; Q9 `- a! o1 n: nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 B4 F; V1 I P9 ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
" k0 ^" j# {8 O3 R: Q) {1 y" N0 @4 nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 Z6 Q) o% p' [2 nmonths ahead," added Hogue., m H% T+ ^0 l' a: `6 M' e/ f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! n; K2 |4 ^3 p' |
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
( X0 W( J, A5 O% `7 A- U" @( N% C' g42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 B- I: f' H, `$ P
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for& z( N( x2 D, ~1 D3 B
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
- C4 j7 B. E0 I* a9 A2 B, Icities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 V) I9 }5 S! ~5 p6 p: @5 U0 m% dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
- n# [3 @6 a" V* ~: ^: z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# O3 B2 p, o- v4 L0 y+ k7 K v
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ m; R3 l. U2 q1 `* N0 `
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% C* O+ x, p8 [) ]1 M4 Z9 |$ Fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard! |- c# n3 Z+ c" R; a
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; n! S6 S* s: h% M
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 J/ T, D# t% c" D0 h, N- y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; w. Y# i$ K8 u' v% uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income." }; g3 X0 U" m7 y, y# I* A
/ r5 q+ I7 |7 S8 R: s( }7 i" C4 t) `/ J <<, [7 ?+ o$ E+ J- s2 `1 L& }
Highlights from across Canada:
% r3 s' _6 @+ D9 j" A7 R6 A! T! r9 O1 K" ~) C2 r' V5 r) L$ p/ K
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 _( b3 Q) o, d! g
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
7 R- @" c4 `* X- |0 q+ p home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ h; }3 m, | h: H. c- u
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
0 n$ P' {1 _5 V1 R4 ^' v7 ^6 n since about the middle of 2007.
4 ^9 B& f7 R3 L0 }, v - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 Y0 I' G$ ^! L4 o
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 A1 S* H7 J3 F# h% z+ C
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% g5 P. [3 p" d! y: H5 i largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 r) E- Z3 w4 x( V; X! Q poor affordability levels.
2 c! m7 m- x) q9 [ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% t- c/ ]$ k/ n3 {4 M) P& v vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: K+ H6 e, Y3 e9 R$ Q" @( m; ` prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% T e6 m( I! @ T3 A3 t) p Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' z( X8 f* W, m0 ? minimize any downside risks.8 y; E- c* P; B4 w/ `8 Y( E9 g
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 u( `9 [ `; J
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* ?+ ~, b$ L' e, O unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early/ [% i R8 H- H
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly3 R* `7 g; ?( X* s9 t- l
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.' p7 z1 w. q/ L% d
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in' x6 I7 M8 ~$ P# ?
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% J1 ^/ u7 [( Y6 {6 [5 @9 p c far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" `/ t8 d- d( v reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 O) `4 u# J* [3 A& b
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 l' z# a/ A% t2 Y
modestly in recent years.; d8 F8 A6 D* }
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the2 x6 ~3 M# Q9 _4 Q# d6 a
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 x. E; B* [& {0 y' \" T: b
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 s% p3 X* a0 c/ N4 x/ y. T price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 v4 ]% q; l( h( L
following two years of deterioration.+ P4 A5 Z/ c$ R5 J
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