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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; o' s4 ^% k' @& _2 S( r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( x' p% U5 d8 w+ Y5 {
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# U8 t* `5 v7 W7 R# u5 qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
@1 U% I2 ^( i8 B. |8 Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ H3 O/ i4 p% Q& _ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' Q- B6 f* f [ P- N1 F% Usaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) ]4 H ~# m0 }, w
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- r V4 d* l, H: T
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
. U; `) x' d0 _5 D+ z5 q- k7 C2 g RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
z) w h5 J$ ^1 g! W9 U& z+ aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: m1 A6 Q$ @& U2 t7 v( t
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
+ q0 x- W4 v1 M1 Isustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 \. i: | ^$ M/ Z ^+ \2 J+ t6 N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 v' R( Z* a. }' Y, lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& d2 i. e6 q: j* R9 Q& L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 h, t& m! Y/ a. G8 pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. Z. e; p2 o$ K
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" p K& R% V: K9 q0 Bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 g; Q) E, y7 a, ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
, t9 |1 h S3 Emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ E |1 r' s2 U8 @- r, o% ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 I7 h1 y$ j& ?% k, O
historically depressed levels.9 H) G, A n* \
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% T* G, o. e5 i8 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& J5 S" `% _! |* Q# ?$ yprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. @% d4 N0 \: X% Bhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 h) S& A# ~- u
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
. O' T9 e* n9 I7 c4 L1 x" e( Cmonths ahead," added Hogue.
( H. y: z6 M2 t, u, } ?$ Q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 ~" W9 Z* H; X0 _
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; {4 }: C4 t; q& k4 X; s42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.% k E! ?& q% O6 ]/ q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for, J( I' ]: U* a$ p# x+ N1 |, q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 W2 z) [3 N0 r+ J8 Scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 A" G" E: t) P% \2 m& D, A
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& j6 L1 B( S' M2 Y$ d The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; m) t7 D7 `( ]& [# J6 K! @
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" u5 d' y7 @: M7 d3 ]
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented6 x( P: l7 o) v3 y
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: T, c0 {/ d& I7 E) f9 n
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. U4 G8 L+ r% X2 V# z! q
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 {# p# r: e$ D% _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ k- c F ~: l1 x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.9 B4 f% R; O1 {2 y8 m/ R/ |
" l6 ?4 \) D; ^/ V. M
<<4 r9 F% s7 }' E' N7 f4 ?
Highlights from across Canada:2 m, h$ ?7 w# k$ o( [ w8 C
! M, z1 z( G* x7 z( f4 F
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 I) g, p1 \0 b: m' {
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ Q# X! Z+ @3 S# S9 W
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
/ U0 J& y: c. h0 q& L6 n( z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
6 u, j* _0 H, i9 t0 W since about the middle of 2007.8 p# @( Z# R/ K7 j9 \
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 W8 E( H1 O8 k
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) |4 z+ ]# o, s decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 z# s( d0 ]6 {6 X* A
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely& a3 A) Q7 S' |! E; @4 ~
poor affordability levels.
% t% _2 o) L, I9 e* b* p+ V# x - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# H. P0 T. ~7 s! x1 H3 L
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& d6 R% m) m; V$ S+ N) ]
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" j" a2 ~1 u( o! m Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
6 O6 k8 E' u I/ o# o' t, d4 F6 o minimize any downside risks., Z# C0 t: K8 G; x* j
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) r$ B, n0 C7 `, ?/ [6 R3 t1 i2 Q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 I" t# w! V$ B- { s" f, S
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
. \' [* t5 T* T7 H( }$ v. @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly1 q3 f) G) |% H( d% H" Y5 J l
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 F% X! n4 @' m F
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* H# V" p& A# m: ]( L2 @' h0 j& \7 c
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 ]3 v) {& E2 A1 Y( X4 y5 Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up0 K ]9 [7 Z. e
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* M1 k, U* B" r3 }* D, G0 D ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% r/ S6 B% l2 R* Z% U7 D; Z modestly in recent years.
4 @- m5 h2 m# b4 E$ Q8 B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 }) _" I4 V2 D8 y& x- E
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# l0 f5 X P; I" a
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- I' ]7 o+ _" ]+ {. | price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 h1 J } K) |8 q) V following two years of deterioration.+ z% W$ h/ a% \. c% N' T: X
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