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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # @( }/ G6 V! Z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' ]* z& w/ n0 }- d) o# b" a
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive* @1 g1 K* {- d7 D
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& b; f1 v/ u4 q( zaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* ?* ^! F' l1 `% P1 E- M1 x3 R
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 K+ `7 P5 m6 osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ ]: g) F2 r P0 |/ ]7 ?improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& ~6 [5 V6 n* ~% r; K" V# m5 c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."/ [& b$ F0 c' X. P' @7 O) j1 G
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
" s# |' |( h$ x1 v6 O! e/ x! Mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! G5 [ t& g6 ]! Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have: O& [* t4 g( i, W! y. b
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; l* i+ C( t/ j5 X% ~" C+ j The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
& B5 s! t, A. Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 Z' g" m: H* f" T& L& H3 v* ^home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- v! t4 n, l% ?
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the* S. t0 F* Q# X
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ u9 D) E- d4 C7 I
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& i" _/ d' y0 L5 h, r9 _
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 ^* t0 ~. y8 N
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ }& W2 C6 V u1 `0 r6 |3 @! ~
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, x h8 ]8 R; \- ^ a$ g" uhistorically depressed levels.3 A1 c0 _1 w: r4 r, e' e8 a$ p
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& ]/ o7 Y- F5 W: H" _2 ^
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% N9 z/ t) C: iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 ~) a& w8 C- h# khands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This6 A/ ^: Y2 G5 o( d$ n& C
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the8 Z9 [; g9 f9 T1 D# u( I
months ahead," added Hogue.7 P; |$ J4 R+ ?& F# a; |+ m
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; p* M% I8 _( _( O7 b. }4 mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 ]8 c) s \. O2 }3 t( D42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 R* t! O2 T' H* C; D$ F) ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! J/ o; A" {1 Wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& h7 y4 W" i# t) e. D# g$ Acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" B, P5 I# v5 x. Ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account. h* M2 O$ ^# m; [2 L! B
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is, d: E4 e, X" B1 [# b# \! R0 K
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
7 J3 A* j E% Kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 z! ?& i! o/ B3 _; J6 j
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 B- s6 Z! k* ?! O3 @# u2 {0 h* s
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 K! G5 L U/ Y2 XFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 q4 _6 n5 v8 ecosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" A) ^6 B8 P3 d4 \/ Vper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ g8 P" R! w$ k M. p+ {7 \& U) E# o
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9 n) ] h; j" i2 w) |0 \ Highlights from across Canada:' X9 q8 v. }( C! c! `! e
( ]! F4 U9 P6 ]9 z, f% X* S - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 y1 r6 J2 F0 i9 y- ]4 p2 W intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing @: N. p+ F: f' z1 F# o
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% S# K" k$ b) T. ^! T, E only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* j1 L4 w8 v7 M, T, a since about the middle of 2007.& L! |5 d- V) F. C) W: I
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 _ z* L: U0 m4 G8 m+ G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 B1 P0 S9 R; |) M/ M, U" y& A decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. ]% ]/ f5 k9 _6 A largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( b5 `" @6 [2 E: | m poor affordability levels.
7 {' W0 \: l; ]9 y$ P/ Q$ R - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 f) s! m( d/ E9 H
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* J* `) w7 c# `, Q7 K prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! K% [% Q$ [1 ~+ f/ E% c8 {: {% d
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* w f7 z* S* j
minimize any downside risks.
4 C3 w" S' ?4 _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 \4 t/ s, b W, e conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
7 R* B" {. g8 y' F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& }: e1 j I' F$ _) q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' ?7 M9 m3 ?$ I8 {! k1 ` X9 y; u% \
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ Y3 W+ `% S3 X7 X9 T: @4 S - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ j7 D. n* v8 X- B
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* w* c8 r @* G5 Q& I. e$ f far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
c2 D3 f% X' j1 i, {* G0 o8 N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# p! @( `! X# X
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only* z, S! G3 g5 m$ w/ m6 D4 M
modestly in recent years., X j1 y5 c: \2 V& B, ^) ~7 o
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the: Q7 B; A* I6 B9 T8 b
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# d9 j0 G0 G, r spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- Q/ H1 a* ^* O) {3 F# O9 H
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 U* t& K1 t7 T* P4 m3 @# v, Y
following two years of deterioration.
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