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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : J' Z+ ~: p! e- E- x; U
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the1 o' Q. `/ N( T/ j- W: U6 u% m
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive: z; n8 m! d* M3 ~; ]
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) o* U% D3 I; f6 _( [
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) l: G0 Q/ m5 b& ~# U8 n
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,": [- Y1 y3 q4 P. r# i a9 n: ]
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% D* m) g1 I7 |8 a
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability! ~# U3 r+ j2 C+ m# l: ^
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' [$ t, J7 p5 _+ f1 Q$ f5 m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ X. p9 N' v$ O1 n3 Z$ v
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, B- o5 ~* A- n2 |5 mwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) i! s* t c- F# e
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! H" @8 [ d3 x0 t The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- }# v) A# H* b. A) ]proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, d' o: D7 {: u$ Ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& B; e2 e. R( _ l& v7 D9 E
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 G! O. y! ^) A- ?" U
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
1 O( j6 D3 F( U/ ^, |# d$ P' [3 `the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. d! U2 x8 l. |2 o# k
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! o0 j8 N( j$ k ]8 Y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 ~/ s3 J' i: b8 q2 @
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 h/ O5 R3 q3 d% Rhistorically depressed levels.
! D9 H. ~* B7 w$ f/ y) h Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- R9 `/ E) L& b
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( J- @/ R' t2 l3 L
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
# ^, ?4 N. U) n- I+ u+ Hhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% Y4 [0 m! t [% V1 senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" ]& c4 ?3 ?0 ?! ]8 V
months ahead," added Hogue.! u! J8 S9 c8 P8 R) ~) P, t5 R
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& g. x( v8 |( {
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary! ?6 v) K7 |& p" G
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! I% u: o/ ?6 u& G1 U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for6 L8 w: D( x/ q+ _
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# l* N0 `* n! s5 _, @cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 R- I/ ~0 i5 n$ r( ]takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 T1 N1 [; A8 l k* I; b! \ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 ?* @" h) p! P4 L9 O% Z( C2 f
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: J$ o1 J2 s" j7 j9 k
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 }7 b2 ?+ G c/ X2 ~8 k
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ _" Q) j2 y5 n! s- l' Wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 e7 h x& H7 C8 K2 m: @3 d8 |7 y% t$ m% ~
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ r* i8 i0 ?# M* A) G
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* s9 b& h# x+ z9 ^; j3 |& {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ H9 e' c# k- ~4 ?
l, @3 q" [% z) x <<
" k9 f) x) R# w6 U+ h. x. b Highlights from across Canada:5 F( T' k; U& G2 d0 E6 v+ o
M) t. B- _3 w! }* G( f6 o6 N- W - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% e! P2 t" V; d/ j6 _. s0 i
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" m5 }# D. ^) K7 `
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- a% F# X. I8 i, Q% H5 |+ ] only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track+ L# n% A6 U1 C4 ^
since about the middle of 2007.
) `) J+ K$ i W- R) ~ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
Q1 _! B" i2 k3 O+ K9 t7 j* M frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 z' r! a3 L% b( u/ v0 a2 q& N! s
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 u8 ^% s/ ]0 k4 e @ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
- a2 \: l5 R- Y) g+ _; |1 i poor affordability levels.
+ O: X- U+ u# o) [( \# { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
0 x3 ?7 `( h- `4 X: |- u vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
1 i) X8 D5 O- ?# V1 Z1 t prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- p* D- n# }( {! Y1 E
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to p3 F' F" }' ?1 S0 G
minimize any downside risks.: I; u4 Y& i) O4 v: B8 t
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; E0 [6 i6 y1 z" q& G+ V' {1 s2 J1 M- v conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" ~6 p% f5 V. s
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* B! z2 e: ^+ C2 s; h D% \$ b p 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ J; s, ^2 q1 X- ]2 U, z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) T4 E" z/ d6 y; y# R! S+ d; o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
9 f" w+ }& L' r* _. \' N; |# U" Y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ S/ A- Y+ E" n
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' m: M8 L8 S( j) V reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# G8 R' C) Q6 w: r+ G2 b' D7 n ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 R" W+ k' |4 }& ?# E
modestly in recent years.; C$ S8 z( |& g9 }- @
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' q8 M2 x! ]% Y. ?: g9 F! F5 _2 _ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! I( n' U7 x, J$ I. {/ u% [9 { spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: m+ T9 Z# t% d) Q1 n0 d" o8 g9 v price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
; D. e! i3 }, u6 B. G following two years of deterioration.
E& Z. [0 A9 H% C/ F1 B7 `' J2 B S >> |
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