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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ V R' E0 \& b2 S TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the% `7 o+ V$ R: W% t6 s
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- f0 L5 t8 h! A: O: tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, q! g/ P! d% l* P( P6 I# s$ M/ Haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: r, ?) n- E" L8 L3 Q( A6 f) N+ W
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! @' f9 `/ l- ?; F I: Z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- q0 o& ^% {* ~# d' n6 C5 R+ Oimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; A5 u* f& C# C% M+ T: [8 ~; Mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# k4 J7 @8 j, @8 g& S. ~
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is8 ~' U) I' ]* T. P& B
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. {+ `. G" _2 P. \& e7 b
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ H# u: `' M6 }* z/ y
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ O- w/ ~- u9 p! `9 [) T. ^ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
6 X9 V8 _* V6 k& C) D( @proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ R' K7 D, P& O6 f0 X
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: Q3 F% ^1 `1 f( f! n! [Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. L: J" g( _2 z! C: G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! n i9 d5 C' J6 Kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 W) A, ]7 ?8 S4 B5 y6 Y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
. j" J$ ~- b& zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
$ R; J4 y9 T* W- ~+ @3 m* ithe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 E9 I) l, ]& m, [. t" K# _
historically depressed levels.4 d5 z, {0 j# q: L5 ^+ ?
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
1 O' \5 Q) c7 N sof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 e) L+ ^, `# A/ s! Y1 m$ Vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 U; v% E& d' c5 D- K0 {; zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) @& r& v* V3 m5 ~enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* m6 K% P9 U& }$ v6 a4 g8 Z7 ]
months ahead," added Hogue.+ @" X* x3 ^2 B7 l
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ Y* v' X/ X/ Y5 s. u5 o+ X; C# Pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: ]/ w2 Y0 A/ C% D, Y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- f% e& k/ v" F9 b& L! d The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for! T, V8 G: |9 Z4 P0 C8 E. f
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these7 {) o4 s' Z9 w! @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& G" c8 |7 d0 h8 O
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 m' A0 J# Z, N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ B" i; Q5 Y, b( }8 A- G$ obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 s& t$ H e) h4 ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
6 |0 ~. o) H" vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& H1 \* N+ y4 _4 n2 Rcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
h; k5 `$ m8 I7 H2 X$ t: k( z" O6 lFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ w" q& @, V: e: K' q8 @; q" a5 Q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" ]) ]% k. I8 @' s3 [5 sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ f. w! }- _2 v+ l( e
* C# f% }9 }6 w" \8 i <<8 Z0 {& t! T+ z# J8 j/ I3 z
Highlights from across Canada:
7 t2 M2 B/ O7 [6 Z( k4 r
. m1 y2 v6 s( h6 O - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& |& K V* L2 p: X+ r! T7 x& o intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
/ I5 V. C% p F! g8 J+ @* @# ^/ y- x: e home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& a+ H1 C- V$ d F2 l only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 [4 m6 R* }. U/ u& P* i. X" k
since about the middle of 2007.
6 O/ m* K G: G( F U+ Z# I - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" ~0 U- ]6 s T7 S! T# J1 v frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
: Q9 U% R7 v D/ R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, e0 ?$ Z, t7 n! H+ f
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely) ^! P5 \# I" v: ]# N8 b+ x5 N
poor affordability levels.
% \( z! r4 O! i) r( }( W - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the T4 C4 c6 k! s" f4 s
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 Z& l. W0 w* s# `( D9 ^ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 a1 I1 K9 P' O5 g3 i6 \( X9 H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% T0 m$ v& m- G2 |5 p- G minimize any downside risks.
( t( \8 s( J+ W+ I# S$ {! ^& I- [ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. l8 |( Z, e4 v3 e+ o7 O
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; ^, H0 ?7 ~1 K( z7 h/ c2 U9 w
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* S- m1 `3 R* i* G
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. ]+ h3 q& I4 N' T being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 ~; e' F$ N4 G% f, g - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 r+ c }3 n; E" ^3 z Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- K" E# G# R' _8 H1 v6 Y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 O! U G# g9 D, L# I
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
s( w! G( y; B$ I% _7 G ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 Z7 x' m. H1 j2 G8 N
modestly in recent years.: U$ W* U( V' g5 c6 r
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
& X, L. P* k$ V( t/ i general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; F% |3 ] D1 f r; U spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ @" \; a9 a8 `& D" V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability8 @' o0 Z }; X5 U, u
following two years of deterioration.
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