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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
. m6 K* n0 z& o) b5 b7 ] TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- t) G+ F9 _; y; D& T; Q( s" a" d
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# Q1 H. e. U0 a# _& w* o4 X$ d
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,1 ^. Y8 _8 l4 g$ E- N- q
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 z( U I% t- X" w6 S3 K% o "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 J# q4 Q: Z# ]8 a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* S' b: i) p" A* ^5 d* o; I( ]/ J+ D
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability# @7 N6 U- n2 z! f) |9 X! a* _
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ T9 x' f/ c% R w; f RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
5 {! y: O7 }: ^# p0 jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: g3 t, {) I' k6 x6 V6 S1 \
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; z* v9 v# J0 f4 w7 \/ k# i. T2 Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.1 Z# q$ E, p4 Y& K* B2 d
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 m/ p, p% v$ a- bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
) N l+ Y) d, B8 @: F; J7 Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" e$ A8 t4 X# m d" R$ ~Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# s, a0 t/ c' g1 H4 ~& u0 z+ Q0 kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% k: g- }$ z0 y& t, \0 othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., w' x+ M# z- |; M/ {0 M
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 i- S: N9 q3 \! v: k
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) u+ Z, f8 ]; B; t
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% G: c' i% S% ]' Q0 s+ x& i7 r3 x
historically depressed levels.
$ y2 P- x! Q7 l4 } ^; f8 l8 h Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
M, e0 z7 I8 K6 qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* k* N" D2 o; u2 `. c3 ?9 H. Kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
# q9 H# f. T. L r1 W; w9 Ghands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 h" O" T! @1 J2 V% [enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: V5 T: L1 m* b0 [) A8 n: f1 X
months ahead," added Hogue.
* b# _2 ]7 G( b4 B% x RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) Z8 i C3 I6 Tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& l' b& g# {6 {. ^) m42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 w; P$ y3 F' u3 Y1 i8 w
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 F" C4 |$ A/ W0 i" F) {
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
+ i/ ]% H: g9 ]4 F8 j+ _. dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
6 V) g3 u9 h- B3 l# V5 ]2 mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 R! W# T [; h- S, d
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 b0 d: m6 {3 R8 Sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 W# E+ A p/ [. l5 e
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* {, O. u, ^7 d3 k' `
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
! W4 V- U# j1 ]$ }condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* `; _4 _ q4 ^9 C2 EFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership. q1 o1 ?" I$ |: s
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 P a2 `" N2 D
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 ?2 ?5 _: _% |3 z z( X' G7 I" `; r
<<: w) R4 q, M/ c) g
Highlights from across Canada:! W+ f8 i0 | s1 ]& m9 {2 G
+ |7 N+ U* z2 O' H6 W: i
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ u7 u6 y# ?" N. e) \4 K6 D8 h intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, b; s, B- N% }; D home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 O) F: |: _# ?( i
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 x; j9 {' b8 |- V since about the middle of 2007.
! L3 q6 u; I7 z# t4 T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 h/ @# @% `7 h% X* ~
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ |7 N$ N$ v6 x) @7 _8 `
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: s# V- A# t3 U- ?5 ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* g0 e' J8 C0 {! a/ \$ g poor affordability levels.. V7 _+ \7 `4 R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' \9 _/ `* S/ g: c: {8 R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# n, U, f. J; q) Q1 c& d6 h prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ l. @+ B0 e& U
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ x- E) C1 H7 F/ u3 v
minimize any downside risks.- l% }9 Z* q! ?, C/ a
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. g8 V6 K; X9 ~* c \5 ?" r
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ W+ I" q6 M. C- |2 H unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' w' }5 K6 P5 j) ]4 P: I, _" Y 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 b) a/ _8 C. @. r being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 B, `/ K% D$ e/ U$ } - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- ~2 G/ Y P$ n, {1 b) i' W Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 I. Y0 E+ K# B7 |6 l% b3 b
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& m# K, D8 q, W* E# J* ?: P9 U/ ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; O+ N3 u7 P$ A9 `0 g1 o# H4 F Z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, B2 G* Q$ R# t0 l* p* f! q m modestly in recent years.+ o! ?7 s! p- b6 E& P# O
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ T- X6 A" M( J( I8 G
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, |% U: Z, o; t8 J8 B
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 d. B- a- N {; [: r price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ R! B8 e4 i! J5 p
following two years of deterioration.
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