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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 B. @. E9 B) K2 H& ^ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& O# a, B- h! |9 O* n7 g1 g9 lmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# [* B2 K4 z( |2 q1 i
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 g( @6 X5 R. R$ r8 S/ F6 k0 }
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ v$ g, P6 ]9 L
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; o# A' X! G+ L1 j/ D- C! V f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( S* a8 r7 u8 ]7 L% D7 Kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& ]) I" A# n( P7 Y' I$ V- N2 Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- ^. b+ k" p$ H- n. E2 S, {: ] RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' l; n9 I Z* M) I
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; [8 q! a% o0 c; D1 qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 V. u0 p% a) o
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
2 ^% K2 }! J# d" S3 t% F The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 X8 B. C N4 f/ i* hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, H" d& K, x9 A5 L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.9 a' c% q5 m. W% y$ C3 p/ V
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 T5 |! I- O' |6 u" R# k: \standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& ]0 K# v# v% T& q* uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' m6 Q% m* P0 \ k6 v: m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
5 A) G* K# U5 ~may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; N6 \: ^/ _3 Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" o( P* t+ H3 S% D3 h( ]9 g& ]historically depressed levels.; Q& Q8 K! X( t( v7 q. S
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 K6 q6 l# {* zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' E3 {4 J' Y6 U/ ^2 u9 Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 G' G. F% c; X5 q# ^1 q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 l& |. g) E- g, l
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" k5 x3 {# \7 d' u: Rmonths ahead," added Hogue." ~+ y& S' x! {. |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 T) b! \" j4 x% C f
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" W# L# y; h0 L; ~
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ J( T: \# Y6 I/ b) ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" l! P" m2 p2 J4 K4 Y2 n& B
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' B+ s z; ~# M, Y( J2 c" zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: N$ v( r( d# |1 o/ g# Vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( n' }9 Z" Y, `3 I8 p
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ x' s+ x. v9 m1 V. R6 C. p2 j
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 @ d+ k% ^' Z& zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented B$ f) q2 W+ x+ F' K& Q* \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 N: Q( ]2 g1 E I5 T l* I, U
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: Z$ C' ~6 k+ G% o; y7 ^' f
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. {- ] l4 X, X. |6 _ N4 }- R0 bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 507 ^: b. R# J! i6 u" |; Q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. `2 d4 ]1 R9 j5 ?# {& e+ Y
9 V4 O2 A6 H, J" M) o' e
<<
* Q9 S* y3 ^9 H8 q. v6 b; w Highlights from across Canada:) E" J- Z9 G' F& k! F
+ d M4 d; b& A# ~0 Q6 o1 i - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( A3 a1 d$ ?$ D! U) E intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
D: h* S% X3 ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
: g! C- K. T) F. p: v; g: @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
6 X. ^( A) l- Y" N since about the middle of 2007./ t( ^9 B& l, l- A0 ^3 s. w7 @
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 s# b) y+ r) j, P$ B0 ] m5 B- M
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 r4 h# d. P9 A$ l% w1 a! Q
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 x! b. U- ^# A+ [. X9 {
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 n# r8 B" ?4 S# d* f( ~/ e3 ? poor affordability levels.2 f: u' n0 ~4 G
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 C/ `7 I8 K* J4 F; Z* ~' X, [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 g/ f- A3 G* B$ N
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" R* k: E. Z l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( u" {2 N3 Z. F9 o# @7 G
minimize any downside risks.
% N8 I+ u: z. H/ A* u - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' d# x" e8 t/ c0 l7 o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, I4 O; m6 T& L+ r0 c2 n, O unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 p5 M4 x9 ]% t9 Y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 Y& x/ A( ^7 |( l being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& `: I5 j: y4 @; T* ^0 L# H/ j! ~
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% Z1 n: z/ o: l& h% F Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' D. C/ j* Z+ k/ K1 @. ? y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- `5 q6 n- J& C* j
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 x5 [& y" f* }
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
J: P6 p0 e0 H modestly in recent years.
/ b) T. g# W1 k# a+ ~0 ? - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! Y+ n% y1 `) Z0 q& {* ~3 L1 b
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ t! `* X) k2 S# I2 ~$ S; w
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# T! E$ a* R; q- V4 Z) X. w
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ g9 R I4 e* A5 L" U following two years of deterioration.
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