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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 ?+ ~6 F [6 c+ I8 B3 m
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, W6 I% ]) T: R! z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( o) ?' X& P; L! g0 c3 R. ?gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ M7 ~; n" H( h2 y) @1 Qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# J# H0 A2 b6 j$ ?. [ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"' f2 l/ o( L1 `* P5 {
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 k( S9 [. H& t9 h0 m' G( A3 `( \8 Vimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* e' F L9 Y2 T( f" E) d/ Ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ p- c2 |2 L( S& @ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, _7 u/ ]; w* f: t
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 x; T/ a! p) R1 J2 E9 W$ Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, n n: E5 H- `0 `* A9 w0 Ysustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 i R1 N' n/ Z& n# ?) G The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% F8 y8 ^8 O& j5 C4 ~9 y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 Z/ Q- S$ O; b5 N7 n7 }3 q2 ^& F
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. x# l( g# {7 b7 F% ]8 XAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the0 b; N X# H2 h: s8 x1 O$ S
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
: B' M/ E% g% p5 E) _& F! R$ cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." q: X. p" V& e4 u
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 X% x6 }$ q0 O" e9 @may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 F- {; C3 f; i4 a( ]' A, p: G
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% w' n- ~! p4 c
historically depressed levels.
1 r2 k) V+ G5 B; M( x Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: R/ I4 ]0 C: R) l4 ~6 i
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# X9 |8 E+ t+ D. i/ @
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& b* _( M$ j( [5 _
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
; j( G7 m) K- E1 {+ S$ `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the! M" v% G! L/ }. N" J& n: I
months ahead," added Hogue.7 Q* k b* W6 g5 x9 c, j2 W
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 e5 I- |+ b& J- C" L
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: @0 y0 o9 W7 ~# y8 t# C* x42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# k- V; B7 D) P7 O5 G The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
q3 I' L7 _9 ?" x8 V7 R2 V- {8 ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ F8 h0 Z" H( ]5 }$ ]0 g7 I" g, O
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& n3 t% o2 C, f* ~% Ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.* L& W8 X& a4 W. a7 F6 I: k; s$ X
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( Q2 Z7 e9 D( |; o; z( }" m3 e3 e( Y7 U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ e4 ~& S9 W( ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
, N9 U9 x) _! t' E5 Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 L# d& W3 h. [( E% I) I" s# n. Qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, \4 G# n) m* f9 o! KFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 ~1 P+ N# c, ~4 l, s/ P* ?% Tcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 @7 D" ~- [0 G' Q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ c! t+ t! A8 r& G; G
0 o0 @4 ]: P- A& N- b <<0 m- T2 c) Q. r) J' [6 P
Highlights from across Canada:
" A. v3 e i6 ~. i6 L& P2 T) c# l$ r$ i7 R) {. V) y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 \0 Z1 \# m- L intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; ~! C) n: e, E: j9 C; x9 @5 R8 o5 Y
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 l3 }# t2 N; ?( R% n; b) Z) b5 q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! D% A6 M3 Z! ~. V& p
since about the middle of 2007.1 v' P/ N4 v# c2 B
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, g+ h- G z, C- r+ s frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& O# `/ |5 g. e( {
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* ?' F) n, r$ a4 y+ c, r; J
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely6 j6 v9 T" u7 Y' n: o; {0 @6 a" T; u
poor affordability levels.
& v0 J7 F) _; e8 g9 B8 \3 ` - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 y# u- e8 }+ v; n3 R; u# X& T
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 L# I3 K7 } ?5 R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 c, [' r- Q) [& |) _" Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ ^; {" ~# [' q
minimize any downside risks.
: z# d) }0 V( K) v4 n# k: ] - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! E* |8 v5 l6 E0 x1 M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 |- k! v" J3 Q8 u; { _
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( O& e- d. N2 |6 J7 N 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 s* ^9 N" s! v6 S being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 h! r! o; f9 h3 I6 n& `+ z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- [ `) ^* A! g& t2 f& D/ h
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 a# e* N9 t/ y, l, r1 K: }1 Z! `9 ?+ _ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ U3 l% ]7 z5 U7 l/ s reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 e% y7 p9 }" L1 C# o
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 |# U" D+ j5 D8 u
modestly in recent years.8 \2 y o3 h+ f# r7 c
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 w3 z2 s9 x: A& d: E5 {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, y4 F+ d7 u1 g6 D6 e0 v" @& A
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ @/ Y; l9 y9 E- a% L* m. U" S% ^ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 t, e8 H9 \% [
following two years of deterioration.
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