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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ E3 \) ~6 x, m' z6 L B2 d" x TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the! M% H# \& V$ V5 `3 `
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive c7 n' E7 b% k! {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* O6 m+ @3 o' \ p" ~
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ O/ W6 r d8 y% ?1 M* J% p" O
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 U6 ~- M) W; S% n$ esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 c8 }3 n# \7 \4 bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 b% q/ ]' P+ h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 C" j+ g% c w* ?5 m }
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 ~/ }( U0 ?1 g0 [" `* e1 v
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 p1 `- u6 c/ [0 T; N2 S0 u" x
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 A0 c$ I0 |5 Q, k" d9 j. V
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 B2 V) E- A( K; Z& E3 ` The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) K2 _6 i1 k1 w: A g5 m
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% }9 P' p& F Fhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ n8 H* t& b1 M; l* F. C% I( [Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 l$ Q. `1 M% q0 C9 ]standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ @( W2 @3 c( }; E- o1 u* t1 Z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( z9 y+ Y7 u6 J' Y) [; G' C According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ v' D/ M8 z! l7 X- I9 g1 ^may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 l {% }+ D# @- d9 ^3 b1 tthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ k. p' H G% l& o* o @0 F/ N
historically depressed levels.
; Z2 ]' K6 a) v2 v* Z: s% W/ d& c Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 c/ C6 t6 N# k/ J
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! P( o7 w2 @/ Bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 w8 }, }: K& U+ t6 |. i4 p* Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, ]* q7 n* Z, h/ W, K6 L0 R, x- jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ l/ {5 i2 d/ R
months ahead," added Hogue.
5 D) o1 m' B& [7 a v# H Y3 S RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) T9 j+ E5 I, l" i, m" I/ r6 i: l
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
7 x( l. C8 V& n c( a/ m- k- @42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% t) I& M: V D" O6 G The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
; ]; D% Y @! M# Ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: s \* z: A. j) Scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 g8 Q+ O. `0 R% F' }: {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 x6 G% l, \. _2 k The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 V9 a, H' W( B" h" h8 R$ {' C pbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 }& _9 ]. S( z8 \5 k6 Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ v1 C& Z, y7 n2 `4 Fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& q- \2 D: q% Y$ c, |! x
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 v/ Z5 `% `0 J1 i3 xFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! y5 k% b5 V7 [8 e' |$ n. U: H
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% C) e6 l2 w- ?. }7 T7 xper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.0 B0 r% q% K) {% w! j
4 `/ u; ^2 {' [, n7 `1 [; w
<<1 j5 N& k1 l4 A3 M
Highlights from across Canada:) H2 ^( J. G& K" J6 K
3 V/ Y( L$ \. [4 a0 K6 b6 a - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ i; W( O: }2 X5 h1 P intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ o# ?, b# Y( B- k7 }2 _ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 l6 X% e+ U% {8 a6 Q, G- B$ M! V
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 M0 g$ t* ~; i! x3 T" U7 O' e5 K
since about the middle of 2007.
7 r& ~) O+ y% v$ u2 d6 `, P! z2 j - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' y. j0 A0 V: m frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( b/ K" T1 w$ B3 Z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, O: c/ `% @1 e$ B2 y1 M6 z; T" W largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; m' F8 X1 ~, t: l# r1 y9 @ poor affordability levels.
+ W% ^9 ?' b" @! _1 M, }5 j - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# P# A$ Q3 \4 g7 _3 w2 p+ v# X, n
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 H% U& a# Y9 @" b, y* `, w# L prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ Q8 l; e* k2 d( [4 {" } Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& p( I j. b2 H9 q5 W Y minimize any downside risks.
3 B8 \& n A- c - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, u v% l, Q1 S1 G, t conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is- A7 E1 u& M. i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* ?4 i+ n. m7 h
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 l' M, r7 L3 N) D7 w being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% F( u0 i- b: A3 d" P$ U1 ]; o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 |' ]- @+ k# b I$ G& I& Q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus. P$ M& I- M1 f3 }3 ]9 [6 r
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up; d$ t: ?0 ?1 i# @# G. ^
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" o3 @$ L8 `5 \4 ~3 j ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- g/ H- I% y' N6 Z
modestly in recent years./ @7 J9 G9 w5 K. J* O& u
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' t1 P7 N* c- l1 v3 r$ v
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 ~# s- [8 z5 K0 ^( D' u* O
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- n* Y0 p( V$ |+ O5 D
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, d4 J6 W: a$ `3 b2 p5 U
following two years of deterioration.# P. u: `/ b. r, t& ]" T
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