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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ D4 g/ k/ W3 O+ a4 ? TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 p8 j; V; ~/ b* Z, Kmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# C' ]5 J( l& \9 _7 q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) C. L, Q7 _/ o, D: H- j* Q. e
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
2 V. @ k8 H& N0 a) a0 N- {1 S "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 G9 V9 R3 X% K, b0 |% A
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. M0 f! i8 T9 j7 k$ C
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% h: B7 _, x& F! O: Qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
0 s& E& j( [% f6 I) |' G3 o5 _ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
" S4 f( t: T1 X. e7 i/ k' Bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- P o2 q6 l9 n! O/ H7 V
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" z2 y: w0 j4 F" _( m+ Asustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.) O, F' ?3 j% x Y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 U, w. n k/ l5 o) Z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& f& o+ b1 J/ j% K
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., U7 ^' {$ @% h# [( L- d( }( `
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ B) s- T: C7 s" I" c4 A' W
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# D6 `% L3 t+ E, I+ rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 g Z1 k+ Z9 b6 U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 Q: ~0 A, v, ? x
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% a* f: c) F/ I0 J9 F# W" S6 kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at- a* x) J- V I' H) ^
historically depressed levels.* o' q9 T* F$ _, z+ K
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ T- ] {2 U& v3 ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
. I) A9 Z( g; ^$ G- R8 u+ Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* q) }/ C2 D6 }
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: G# e; ?' i: F3 G& U( penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 _% P& R, F2 Z% f- A' q! `- b+ e
months ahead," added Hogue.% |( A1 B) [6 a R( X6 t, C
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 p$ F2 Y' A' ]$ N7 ?4 a& Q
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ P% | H% n; }; w. [$ o" c' ^
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: T* C" D$ r6 L4 l6 D. j0 l
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( W8 L k( i$ ^$ [$ Z: L$ N# _
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 f. b- E- @1 a; i$ L* C
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" g, R' h( c u5 s, O3 M
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.% _! P4 i4 t6 R* t9 K
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 S7 G1 P9 J% @# w/ Lbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 s! _, U6 F; c8 S0 |8 N
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& }9 J: P' T! R' [3 A3 @& x0 Q# ]6 bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
T8 e2 h1 M" z3 y: zcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% z7 U: n* t1 Q# f' h! ?
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" Q& P% z# k4 Z5 {costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 O& N1 x$ o& X* w
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 ?1 Q! O! W* T3 @. d8 d4 N! S4 J) h$ c8 r4 m
<<- P# X, [$ X3 ]+ W6 z. O6 A
Highlights from across Canada:
5 M7 P" W: S; i6 E3 x5 Y
7 w* E% ^3 e- y: U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
0 {- N( f0 N7 ~ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ ?& T# h. s- g* A, H; X home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
/ }- [5 w, i' o/ w# a' y$ n only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: J' H# H @6 X" o5 y( Y since about the middle of 2007.
) C: Q( h& _# L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 x( Q4 t$ F9 n8 b+ S! A( [ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 i4 X! `3 c: H& w9 g2 n2 W: k! B6 }
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 Y, \) P- S! N7 s. Z! }" X" W
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ k7 i0 }/ i3 w' o- ~# _' x6 |" y- g
poor affordability levels.7 R, Q& I$ ~3 \3 R0 W. w
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( _: [2 Z s( l3 m9 d4 ^
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( {- w( i& z4 m" V% ^3 a! ^
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- W2 I& O8 X, P/ e5 Z4 ]
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ @' n: b3 c6 x( c. y! h
minimize any downside risks.
: ]4 U/ Q* X# R - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 N6 l1 Y0 W6 G! G. t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; o, e4 a p K7 G C/ L2 {$ e0 @
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, o7 u! j; V2 R5 {
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly a* u" T# J) \2 g* |
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.- F6 p$ P/ Y& }: i0 \4 z6 \6 ~9 {
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" O9 f' _0 y, z+ Q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 V" \: Q. z* e5 C
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ @% w. D& L$ C. S! x& T
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) S' e; e/ H" C/ ]# k ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only/ [3 \2 S* A' S P0 i. t2 b
modestly in recent years.! z( P5 H$ {3 V; H) z1 O
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the: T, M: O& x% o5 K" m
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) O. w4 f% | b" \1 J$ d9 {1 V spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 ?8 _+ i& t& z2 E/ b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 ?4 }, g+ U) X following two years of deterioration. A7 `7 W; I4 v' t8 f
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