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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) | v2 F( h( t9 y; {. u TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ y/ I' D$ m7 e8 P: \" Z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- B% I: Y$ @6 @0 D, @, E
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
5 R+ W, ~; S7 ^- ~8 \( O' _according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 ~+ ~; z4 R+ V; q+ e }. W& J1 Z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 H3 G: j- b4 J
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
4 Z% H# `% m$ R3 Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ d; H3 p/ _7 `% k+ ~
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 Z5 j* T" I. @- a: r
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. q! v( ~' N! e& o7 Q- {" l5 y- V) z: I6 F
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 P: R4 O5 Z* x9 G" B4 f" Qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
3 Z- E1 k# d+ s/ n3 E. hsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 s( }* ^' M/ y- } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 w2 _# T! O2 g1 m+ M$ C: t3 wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ H, t5 C5 V( U( H5 K4 |9 _" a
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 s7 Y+ d' B6 b& A
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% E4 H0 O( o5 _' |) M% d4 @standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" U. v: l9 M' n: Q) e" C% Ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 U0 D& m$ {# h* G& J$ L' i
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
- h# n2 r+ G0 k! H5 S: \, ~/ ^may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 `' o2 W7 G* l+ J8 ?& X X
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! q" M! i& M, S8 ~& }5 o$ \historically depressed levels.
9 _ H4 ~/ c' @& k Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! m+ E& G& P9 B& J9 P5 Eof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( D1 U' [& O' z' ~& a8 x
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 j( Z: `& {! v, B J
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: J7 Y" U5 X! {3 M0 J; t- Oenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ _" p6 a0 P( i6 W/ M7 x1 E
months ahead," added Hogue.: ], o- B& G4 z& r: v
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 m/ @9 z" p7 n( I; m) n
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: @+ F8 Y2 Q5 i. F" X* b5 v- F% h
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 i$ s) ^9 C2 v/ F3 _" W1 h: ?! I The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ k& t5 `7 [! M3 R5 W# e
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 y8 M6 f, |8 H1 P3 y% f' ?6 Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( O0 I) E3 u6 i0 e7 {1 B1 w
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
- _- U! N) H( \ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) S _* [4 f" \. K' O k
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 [: Q0 @9 x- A+ rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented6 T% E' U* L8 z$ n
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( G& O3 Y( _3 c; zcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
! c/ @/ b' ~' p2 WFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" {& ^2 K1 Y/ Z' ?8 W% h) qcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 G# ~, T) M* ^7 g" J: Z2 Y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ a4 Q& H7 r0 F; J5 I% j3 J
% ? F* E: T$ L; E% h1 g0 O5 E <<0 ]& ]' q" |- ~9 _, @
Highlights from across Canada:* f9 b- m$ i8 t- L7 O) K
' m1 Y% {/ G9 x' j; W - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 I) p. C/ `/ Q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( H% i5 z: M, Z- |; E- }( f
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; \* w. {- a1 Y) Z# j% Q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
' f6 [' J# c% U$ b6 S since about the middle of 2007.4 t& D; v: t4 q: T: b8 i' Y; q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 T `. j- W$ }. O) O. l) b frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" M9 ~! q! m" V0 k0 x
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
0 T. M+ m- w& |6 _" W3 W largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely2 F$ \3 Q' T. q" J8 A v
poor affordability levels.2 i6 L; i3 n3 H4 [
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
- I0 ?, M. i2 ~+ u; k. N vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 q9 u' B1 h% a$ k' C! m6 U
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; Q: o8 Z; g; Y3 ?: {$ \ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 O& |$ W ]6 m8 r0 W) _% P
minimize any downside risks.
3 d* B. y" ^4 f, G+ `& e - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market E H) g9 M2 p1 v5 _6 F
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
- [' x1 z! J% ~/ c5 b unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% r9 B: W) ?- T4 B* [* @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ ` Z+ @6 K4 c# W, i3 L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 j. W+ m4 B( L* n3 } n
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 e! w- @4 v0 U# {3 _2 G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) u0 g C7 e) d; W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
6 c2 l& m# i. n- Y* h, h reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be! g [0 m! t% u6 w* D
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) L% h4 T' Z+ m+ l/ N6 [; K modestly in recent years.
( h( G4 Y! \% T$ A% y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the7 Y% `) \6 f. w1 Z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot( Q- C' B- f4 H, g% t
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. M. g5 b3 N7 p4 R6 W price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 w! r! ^& Z8 n; s W
following two years of deterioration./ q4 y( _5 U" N5 }0 A
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