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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " l( z" T8 {1 m8 q+ q0 G
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; ^# P) U) h5 U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive$ W( F9 D8 V8 o8 R& {$ f
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! T( v9 m2 B# A% ]according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* L. S9 B( _4 z; P6 _% b "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! h: h3 `+ w$ B6 s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is8 n' P6 l# P5 Q% x- v
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& k8 y5 b0 [1 P6 r' y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& f* C) s. L" A0 j RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* @; H1 Y+ O' Q9 E; H5 h( t
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. ]" o: R; ?4 }5 g) a5 x, P1 {. d/ C/ N
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) z3 a `, F. U' s3 r6 M+ O2 \. Tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! |/ g# o& F' n- m, E2 p- q& B
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, A! [/ C z' D9 O3 xproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
v: a! ?) `' {& L/ X5 [home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* ~! E0 }* }1 j. G! NAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 _4 I% z' f" Jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ s. K9 g1 F( I) O. {
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 U) M. I# N( h$ V1 \# r2 T1 p( M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* u+ c! I: ?' R9 p3 S
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ l9 A0 Y4 k, V5 w# J6 X
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 R% q8 l* G$ Y: ~, x0 R
historically depressed levels.
& ~: y5 P. T0 H6 m4 r! }& }+ e Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' z+ U1 a* c' r C. }& F8 H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House; L# A( }5 ]* J
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- z4 b$ v7 q% g4 }1 q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- O7 S" y, \- p: D& O) r8 y$ \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 d0 C: F# O# k/ G2 Amonths ahead," added Hogue.! N5 f' o7 H- V8 R" }# `8 q
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' \2 i* X$ w$ `, scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary/ \- R6 J! V3 W$ I. |0 n
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 t% i- r& N- F9 o7 y D& r The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 G" m* c4 |" d+ Q# S/ j5 K
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, ?3 G4 q! ~7 @$ g8 t8 B0 q( E3 H9 q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: q& E( h# Q1 ]2 G1 T
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 r3 \0 j+ C5 \
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* b. e, u8 Z: {6 s( W7 L4 A4 p( Lbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, s: V7 n" S4 L! qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# G3 V1 G: B9 c
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. D- n# D8 t& W" x* @condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) B% a( v" }7 B+ O- HFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 S2 f. N; B+ B Wcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- }. g8 w! ]' U1 d' H
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
x& H* J& C* w, G5 n1 @) R# P7 O3 E* e
<<
, R6 n1 B6 w9 D% m1 y% z Highlights from across Canada:
- w/ P% f6 A+ m5 t
7 A0 l; ^+ S; v, f8 u6 v - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
2 @; N% f* y; \. L6 A* ]) t, ]! ? intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing5 T( y/ B z, Z; z" P, {
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
/ \$ n" j2 K2 o9 X+ \1 ^ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track9 G$ l) g7 v5 g! x$ c# L+ \9 V: P
since about the middle of 2007.
+ U0 O. F: [9 R! C- L# f. D - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& ]. T, |0 I: {9 S
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, w" `) T& v% X d
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- w: G3 N% z) M largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 ^; Y, ~# R0 N- h+ ?( F) t poor affordability levels.
' N! N7 G& Q+ P( {( m - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ y/ ?# K2 s2 L+ K( h
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and ?/ M& ?+ \* v# q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ i" j1 {1 Q1 ], F- ` Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. p8 E- X5 ?4 h6 e" F' i- ^& r3 f+ K minimize any downside risks.
; Y+ e! b U, v. I5 t - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
W" V$ D3 ?* ^. y conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 Q- ]; u5 G, l# y% r% g% Y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* ?6 h. n1 t# Y2 L( d7 z3 [. x 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" i8 m' S. L* n- I8 M l6 d
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) ]0 a$ p6 r" c0 b* o - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 s1 w* t1 {; }' J9 c# ]1 N& W/ C
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
7 Q2 y0 r5 b$ ^! ^ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* U% Y3 f( C# {" e: W/ ]5 F5 t
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be/ f/ a+ q5 A. Y6 Q/ v/ s) f) r, k
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 H) B0 g+ `- G8 w modestly in recent years.1 H. Z7 M+ n7 F4 N3 ~/ C
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the3 I4 B0 ?. Y+ ^" \+ T; p- _- s
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot Q# f/ B' v+ G5 x& ?1 X9 E5 y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) {1 g; V" z8 i' r& y0 x" H/ b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 i2 I0 q, [) w; J. ~7 k$ h6 A
following two years of deterioration.
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