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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 z* p4 N% z! s- Y# K TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 A8 z% H- |7 ^3 n+ I% _2 Emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* d y- A7 S/ h& u- M0 u7 X: r. ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,. i! Q0 J8 t! x k- y+ ?9 z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
! o4 Y0 w1 p! {) i "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 B, M( x. Q' z3 {- u% `% Psaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" I9 h) h& m4 j8 j, Aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 T: k6 j9 L& c. f3 omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 K; O/ U( e- d2 w, A" Q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( l3 [; Z, F2 |. d
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,; w4 d6 k" l8 W) C. q6 @ `& B0 N
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) J6 ]" d/ U D# S' \( E* |sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 Y* m2 \. \) j/ Q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 F" c! m% u1 d# v2 [: ?, M! W( V/ Wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 E( }1 f) t6 ~) U4 n
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& i# {( p/ ?8 r% o; ^+ K8 _7 V) dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
. b+ ?4 X% ]4 O& nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% T5 F1 \/ q& L1 B) A) c4 G) p; C* Xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. p+ s( o* C K5 Z2 ?0 y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! I) W( Z3 H3 K9 Nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 ^) ]& u* Z# m; M
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 y Z& O$ p. G& B: s
historically depressed levels.
* K. u+ }9 B! o8 T2 R0 [ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ H6 u) ?) \5 q Z) ~of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 h, t/ C. D' Vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" }: S$ w5 A- t# E
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 D8 Q( Y! @, A6 |8 r8 uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( H+ g- a# F3 Y
months ahead," added Hogue.
2 g8 Z# k/ n( R( V) D9 o RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
* i! h) H7 s# Z% Z, Y+ t* H2 ^cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% z& z2 k& }* o
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 B6 _1 ]) a/ Q/ d
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ u7 e/ U& b3 r2 E! ~& p. `a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ q) F- {! j4 V6 gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ y A4 D2 B" t, Ktakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ `6 G% w8 X2 X/ u" S+ Y# a1 ~/ |9 N c The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 a9 u; `" P T5 T. M) r; r' Dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
7 j0 W9 C8 q' o kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* ] W! K+ Y* l p( U
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
* m, O7 Z# ]8 r( s+ I$ {condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
4 ~; ~+ N' j0 V. g* x5 U6 gFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( C, [2 \) R! z, { I0 N, mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* a1 e! w8 u" V p& F. z- ^per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% s! l3 T0 t4 p. @. H% X4 D8 k$ `8 ~$ E0 L: K; H6 B
<<
2 g8 T% M7 r; G* v Highlights from across Canada: b8 J+ ~& ~5 Q2 b
9 u) p$ U3 ^5 t) ]- B - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) l: w2 ^' T' @' }: ^3 i
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: c6 y* {( N$ | home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 ?, O$ R! \3 C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 y2 l6 H/ c+ p$ a. R9 C9 Z$ T- ] since about the middle of 2007.
4 Y- i/ l7 n) p. p: [5 U - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% b; c/ Y! R: Y& A# B
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" P1 S# s8 O" A1 u+ ?* ^- n. t/ ` decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 ^# q2 P/ X4 [! u) h; `* i
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. n: m4 C6 R5 _
poor affordability levels.
$ q/ G" d4 F$ n9 n5 G - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( x+ p0 N" y% _9 |( q1 ]6 a
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; S/ L' r4 L2 B h prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- z- D: ]3 ?, c# E. p) w' N- i( U
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ X% }0 v5 t9 X8 ~6 y5 v" Q! E5 ?
minimize any downside risks.& ^8 P4 d$ m, ~. n5 S. R7 W
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ Z7 Y g9 Q8 O d
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 O& J3 s0 i% W) N& W! U unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ e# ^4 d0 {8 P3 L
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ Y1 V1 u7 a" u- s4 U# t- a
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- \5 S+ |8 R7 z/ W6 Z - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in$ s$ k/ K$ g5 U
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus8 I) _5 _: U$ ?3 [ @3 `
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up7 f0 [8 M$ @0 F- D6 o& n. J( J* q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! t: y7 {8 n4 ~; D( L7 o/ m x! r" o ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- O, R. |( M+ i, u5 F1 s% h5 _ modestly in recent years.
8 W J l) [- }6 ]$ e - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 G. a$ J1 @) X: [7 A
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% o0 B3 N6 f6 _$ d ?: E
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( g; [6 v4 W4 `) P8 A price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 _5 @& C& C% v following two years of deterioration.
0 Q+ a6 e/ C4 m. P% L/ m: ` >> |
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