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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, }+ P9 t3 X3 z2 l TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ k, V. g3 b8 y, M9 Z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! g$ K7 x; B" d* x3 u& {. _
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
9 l- p4 j- Q5 |, D) ^) q4 aaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- u2 [5 o/ E+ ?0 v "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; n m( Y6 h: `* r s3 _% r# H
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is1 B8 w) w) a. u' _2 K1 S
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 J( A; n/ L* o% i Z7 _% `( Q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
( y( }% c; X7 d+ @ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' G# I2 d0 O( ~ g* b6 h/ Z$ Hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,+ G$ [1 d4 E7 G6 Q+ B) M4 D6 X
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 Q$ Q& `3 w" {. H( z8 N: E2 g
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 i/ q- x- M( Q, s+ }, I2 q+ V6 o5 T1 I5 P The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 L0 K: k; W8 Q+ N4 Oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 h8 W& m/ ^% }" B1 `home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ H7 {% z# [% m: @$ b1 Z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 m G0 W+ G# ~3 m u: astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and. G! q2 I/ i7 M. A
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 T1 F1 ~! {+ `; @% L8 m6 W According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 Z7 M7 ]4 Z V+ G0 i1 g" M- N
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* P$ O% U2 Q' n( F/ G3 ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 `: G4 [2 R# q3 E4 Y0 _* khistorically depressed levels.
7 G# P$ \* ]/ q4 V1 ` Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost; E& O2 r* ]& c6 u" ~( [
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 `( p9 d1 E& o) @3 H+ a+ }: v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ d# D3 l9 V% D: nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ }% A3 L1 |0 s" ? Nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
- t1 a# o& `( w, a3 g9 u3 @months ahead," added Hogue.
( z* C( O9 B/ w1 }+ i3 |" c8 d RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 N' w3 |2 N8 \
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 b. p7 i. P, z5 {# s: g
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent./ b1 M+ p. w7 S/ ?! w
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% G3 T9 ~7 n! ?7 A2 d
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
" J8 h! U& k8 _6 u, I- G ?. gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 M+ U2 P9 g* P# U+ G. c) Ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ B/ f" |" `7 c) p
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 g3 ^+ K+ ?) z7 J3 Ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property# ^& G& p# r+ S; A+ w% _* `# l
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" t& P9 m/ j$ wincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 |% Y6 V4 q6 H- h5 j' N( Kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: H/ `+ H8 f r& VFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 }$ F& [% V5 `6 f3 o) N: Y Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50: H# K; G! ~6 y/ z+ y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& {! }8 K1 `' D: y, o6 E- t* c
* ~$ P% i- [2 U, l+ E x
<<; S) h) ]9 D5 {
Highlights from across Canada:
2 o. c+ Q: n7 a4 _/ Y0 x
, b3 q% \; Q. P0 @5 Y x/ l- N - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) u) e7 V' Y3 h* ? r intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" o& d! Q( @0 G/ O1 p3 e* {# ?
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( B8 ^& O. i* ]* ~4 U: J only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: R n/ {9 u% L$ I* y( o/ `4 W since about the middle of 2007.
: M3 @6 M* N( H# ^% c - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 R$ t6 j6 b ]* l9 M- ]
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 x' L. N5 _; r9 i x; y- g
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 H7 K l/ E, |# _" U8 r1 b8 J! d
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 C! R3 h8 S% b1 b; Y2 v poor affordability levels.
7 |; n7 E, V6 y3 r0 x+ E! [ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 X9 Q) `6 w! b+ m8 p; H# i1 K
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and1 R/ U4 y/ q4 I/ m
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. y$ J# l9 v, w2 p8 w Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to U0 A$ e5 Z! K1 r1 u k7 t
minimize any downside risks.9 |! Q) ^, L# g" A
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& v& s' a" R& d% y: a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 E1 n9 t0 B- A
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
+ H, Y# W+ I% `& v! k( H, O9 H 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 G( H. V) z& p( J1 \' O+ l c" F
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ s3 S- k% t# _& H& g, o$ B' L
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 A! v& L9 g% |$ ~ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* A/ V4 z4 D0 X* F$ I& m2 D
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up a8 A, K8 j3 Q0 x, C
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: f& d6 k, _. d! d; x) E1 M ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( p) H: v9 c+ ~4 ]. |
modestly in recent years.
& C* }; c2 W: |8 L% r& l3 q; j - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ b p) c% |2 i0 E2 b% u. ?
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
2 @! s8 ]0 y& D- ? spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 [* _5 |3 l: L$ Y price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- O2 e. y0 F; Q' V: k! G
following two years of deterioration.
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