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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
& s& N. y6 U5 a: ^3 v TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ l, [/ [7 `" E: M
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" ]2 x5 p/ z! E( ^gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,1 w5 ^" K3 b8 ^( `4 @
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. O( y4 T4 }. T
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; H6 U( O4 S0 l+ T, U4 ssaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 ]7 ]9 e* `4 |
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ f: f- ~7 v0 g* u' [2 V+ u8 x
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 M: L+ M: O# v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! d' F- n7 w/ i0 p; m! ^
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- d) W2 ~6 G7 P- M; bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 Q/ ]- [- i9 X. ~ l* rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- F* B# w B2 ^5 k. l The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, c& s; H5 D8 yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# g5 N$ [( |" Z4 L! y) V% C
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 k, R% C6 Z! `, T. _3 C4 y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 B* n, u( x3 j( y9 `0 ~; vstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* a% X2 _7 q; e- y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." m' b- l0 X' B7 g# U
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 W# L C1 u$ |1 n+ d' c; ^may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 f% _1 x# x5 A4 W, g; W4 g' p( }the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
+ ?/ W# n6 i) J+ A# l. t7 C* R7 phistorically depressed levels.
4 c# c0 `8 c) I+ ]7 ~$ Z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. G) C8 ]1 r/ r% |4 e2 J
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. u, N5 S" g& D& K! {# z: }) i. o+ k
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
( f0 X8 O& D/ e5 @1 O3 s8 qhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- |. ^& d s) a: ], r+ k2 ?" X* ^enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# a9 ?% M. q* R) w$ [8 Bmonths ahead," added Hogue.
( y4 R! b& V, [7 P( X RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# E, h" q5 c( L: V0 a tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- i* O/ R, V$ h
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
V! H2 g- d! u5 ~# o The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. [8 V% W* I- H" K( d) |9 X
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 d) x# t. @8 a3 _" g! w# {cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
6 {2 u; {5 m4 X; W% [* ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., B% e8 `+ F; B9 I( Y, u" ^
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
k/ Y/ T; V4 Gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 g; o% Y* u5 P5 S* B
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ K) W* w' C3 S' D7 C; N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: ~# [8 u4 F9 o8 pcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 G0 T" U" p6 j& S8 U2 K* q$ E+ EFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* D/ v5 Y: g2 q7 E' A
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
6 R0 k; y. B8 _& V( T' \1 cper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ n( r% L4 o8 e) R2 n0 r# [8 P/ i3 @+ v5 G& ^
<<' i/ Y; a( d+ y1 r8 \( {3 m- s
Highlights from across Canada:8 d3 F; a2 u# h
" H, z' q h+ ? - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) X6 s7 F) M B) g+ ] intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 T7 i4 e/ Q0 g' s- K0 | home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* C0 p4 z" P$ ~+ ~/ F4 K4 H
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 I& X7 d" T6 F" o! Z% q
since about the middle of 2007.
' e. {. |% Q- Z( f% Y" _9 W4 p - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ @6 D% u5 `. Y: {) d( j5 F* l frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 _$ G5 ~3 ]4 {
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& P6 A! W; R- q5 |! i f largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 K# ?, X+ @7 @' O/ s& E: O
poor affordability levels.) q; K Z" _% h/ h, V7 r
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& s M) x4 @" l8 u% \ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ J. S$ Y+ p) ?1 G prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 t8 M1 k( G' P' {$ t7 B& z- j Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 h, s$ _" y! v; |9 Y" p7 `4 m
minimize any downside risks.. H# H4 U2 t: }7 u# z7 q* B
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. O% ?3 s! E& \# D! H" j* ]5 n conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 Z; P/ `2 P G0 f8 Z unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. X; x2 y& q- B
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 H" J. f e. [ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ e( q% @* e0 n& c# ^# p - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) Q# k4 | `. F& ]: c3 q Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 Z2 H/ w" V8 _; m8 P& V far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up S" n$ N' P3 [
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. |2 l9 S% X" j% `6 C" g/ c# P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. H, x0 Q+ a: s/ v+ T. r
modestly in recent years.
W8 D+ a) u. C+ v' }. W5 ] - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
" n4 R) ^! i# w1 U* D general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& W2 a. N2 Y* M# j( c9 @- k k spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 y5 m2 ^( [8 N% _ S price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 P' t2 H. U+ c5 @" r: w4 ]( J
following two years of deterioration.
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