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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 U4 y0 z: U P# _5 N/ L TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, q+ y6 _3 |# T8 M& B# {6 z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 l0 ]/ ]: }' K) f- K( s
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 h0 R- ?. ?9 ^1 L# }2 C5 c+ }% [
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 D, U) Z: ^- ]3 {6 o; T! t- p
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( e2 g3 w- h d* r' E6 f+ o/ j2 x# K4 p
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ @+ w7 @. Z T- X4 D0 c; }- Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 J# ]( Y; p: S/ q( G6 _
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 d; c/ J8 @+ G
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' u" o. R& W8 C' [! ~0 a1 j; T
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. u* A8 r, g% p9 p
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 k& x8 I$ k' X8 T/ P
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.: @. K& v) `: ~7 C9 Y7 O1 K3 r6 U- [
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
" o& @( k& s' E6 C9 |' y8 m) Cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
; ~5 R T- W. Ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% Q- v2 ^* g1 T6 q: w. y' h
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' G d9 ]# _: h' b
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, V5 j# _! x6 s9 Sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 k, J! [0 g8 e: I) ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 ~/ j8 z5 u0 H, @2 [; T* X# l
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ k r# i0 M4 r
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) R$ ?! X5 o) u+ e1 K! d
historically depressed levels.8 y* ^3 w/ D- ]9 n# q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost6 V+ z9 F3 m& b
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# b! R# _: F0 R9 J
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
8 f0 x8 q5 k& X7 }. l! Jhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, I( u& d; Q# M( x2 [
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" p: U6 U+ t+ B/ L4 P) z
months ahead," added Hogue.) t, ~, k$ T6 W2 z7 \; I
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! [3 M* O' O; Z! l, vcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- F/ l E0 ]; h42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent. T3 {5 r* B( J# W P
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: G; R) A2 H7 @9 {7 ?
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' Z+ s# T* ~7 s( |4 Lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) W8 s& j1 A H3 d- B
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ {0 D: T; `, J$ K$ W- } The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* l4 t% k# P; [0 {, u D
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property" N* f$ {$ _6 `; ]' w( P, c& V
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# j& j# x ^5 V" b, @including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 i4 [; o, Y0 m
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 I+ [9 D2 h# u3 mFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) t! ~* F1 C( A9 O9 V4 `costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; R1 P- {) H8 u: Aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 H% u& k( I6 U r+ x
- u$ z; t9 A" P
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* x E |# X3 L" j7 T2 _+ |% [' _ Highlights from across Canada:
) x p7 z0 e' p9 ?
/ q' D5 p2 Z$ u. b6 v - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: ~3 v! y- v0 I% h
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
1 E' m# x9 p ~' l8 v8 S home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( L6 _, C/ Q, q. z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 ] P3 _& x5 G4 \ since about the middle of 2007.
. ]1 V% ]9 a, i6 u: z - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! j" h& }5 p$ z$ r$ H* \
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 g% i9 P& P% Z* x
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! O: w' e: J9 A+ x7 s+ m largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 `4 T4 g: `9 z3 p0 f* {& q poor affordability levels.: a4 m" h0 [* y# W: @7 L2 g% G
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) x3 l7 e0 S: W: U! k
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& p, f- P/ s) h" H
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ i% _7 D9 p( F& ~ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 Y" o, E6 G& q* D+ K4 f8 [, [ minimize any downside risks.# u8 F7 _ s# W8 ?
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 V/ B" n# K) U- r conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
7 O& v3 S: V& p h* `) a unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( H6 u9 U/ s, o1 x0 n6 w
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 l M0 l3 \% g% R" p! V being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: {: D+ Y( z& M& `8 n2 Q - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in4 U, ~6 _1 T7 z1 m; m
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% X1 l( s4 P |, B% D% j. H far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) U( p @+ Z _8 p1 o reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 ^4 y( b+ O: X- d
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) \9 J1 E4 i2 e( {. @ modestly in recent years.
) x( i0 A; P& D - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 z; S0 n! m5 n+ P general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! r8 L3 S# T9 N9 Z% T m! D
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ ^& o+ C, N' N& [) c R8 h! U price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) k3 }8 K) a3 _% `$ f' M; D* n2 t- ` following two years of deterioration.3 h) E! t* K+ y4 W
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