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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - s( U* G0 y. y7 m: Y9 Y, l
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: _+ S3 h& z. L7 k& U+ umiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 L# K# Z0 t R
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,+ Y( Z1 a7 n) |# t* E/ {0 B0 M
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
4 e. [. [8 M, J+ P "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
/ }" [. ^( o$ Y( z/ ]! J4 E; msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: S# U) C7 e& B: d
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 F' E# m9 r$ [. H9 m' P" cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 }; Q/ y& h( o7 [0 W
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 R: B K; z$ w3 E7 |+ z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ u9 x# o9 @% r6 f0 Lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% M. @8 X w% G9 I
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 a4 x+ [7 q0 ~& Q) n
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, t( p7 {# z! Z" `proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
% F. M+ b+ d! \. q( R# yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
# T( |5 M5 h4 C$ r d) K# OAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' Z& @+ z! e7 T7 h8 e* N: W* t4 Kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( T. I! o# X9 M; q7 d; v1 [
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& B) p. F: P* `' g& c According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
- D3 U( m/ b) m, F1 Ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* D) G2 U& i4 @1 K3 g( B c$ \the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 V) P9 w* L% Q7 E& { y1 W, a2 shistorically depressed levels./ Y% t @; @4 y! P1 b9 x2 v
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 e) r$ b! w; @" p zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, O! |0 m6 a" s# j- }4 G9 O
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, s/ F" W, z& _' C: M! q9 ~4 d1 b) d
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 f; }6 M a5 K# Jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" S1 d; X: _7 Z1 U' M* wmonths ahead," added Hogue.) Z* a+ N; k1 u2 T
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 [' f, e0 S; I6 o+ X1 l1 u
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ Y6 \. l% H0 M$ u42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. R, {% g7 `2 K9 b
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 Q$ A- O! Y5 h6 @
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; A' v6 M9 I6 v- F+ F
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 b6 W: e. v0 F5 ?3 o: Otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
% i7 v- p9 _3 j. I. p- M9 G The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# ] X; h/ a( @2 C' Fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 E+ z, t* q2 H$ W$ B0 n+ zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ j. Q9 \ K# X, P I8 v) Gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( c, [4 B7 R# u$ Icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; Q9 e3 i' k2 w
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* n" b) N' p$ h9 ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ Q) }1 k' r) K9 Pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' N7 |! L( g; V4 ]7 L$ Y
6 a8 V; Z$ P9 \/ T$ L1 i7 Y* I
<<
& ?; J3 _+ Q) h& G$ H0 m* y2 c* I Highlights from across Canada:4 U( }0 c( B' |0 f, H# r. ?% E
5 e' E1 ] b- j
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' j+ V: S# b4 n) g, B
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) r- \ ]9 B! p( r* T home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 |: i9 F1 R8 K8 S$ B- n only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 A$ u2 }& r: H' v4 T# K
since about the middle of 2007.4 d4 e. w" Z! \& I9 b/ h! w
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 q) S7 l* n. v3 c9 p4 N
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' D( Q6 ]' F0 I# F) w
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
5 s' h3 I1 k6 Y2 L& L largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 A8 O7 S# o {9 e
poor affordability levels.
, P/ W8 R, W* m8 J0 p - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the \3 D3 X9 |0 n1 I+ E
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( @- k# ]& z. x: \, M2 l
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& ^! f* I2 ^. _. Z; ^5 @
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- J; ]& y; {8 o3 q! @6 _ minimize any downside risks.( ^/ U9 B; L$ J* O3 U! @8 A% P
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
7 c8 ?' x* B' N5 D conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 b7 ?& Z* B& k6 k" y9 q: c unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( F8 k3 x" Y" h/ z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 F( i% W( H* n) R ^: `' x
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. _1 u- I5 D- }$ p. t0 n" h( v
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in' M7 G1 [" X! ~9 U" y
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 C: k) ~6 R# K far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 @; i7 ^" U- B/ g4 h% W reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' @& @7 |- h3 r- `* N ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. O; z4 r! H, B$ k5 i
modestly in recent years.
+ u+ R# f1 j3 |3 Q; R: K0 ?, z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( S6 f$ l( s/ h
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 V# l. p6 k4 U# M spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; L& _; ^ i+ x" X M6 l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 h( R8 L6 g- w6 s+ v following two years of deterioration.
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