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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
& x. t) z& \9 ]( R6 F8 j TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 n( w* p5 R& ]* Xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
; V; Q7 e# b. h E% g5 a. lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 f* ~1 a6 x# f- g8 f0 t0 oaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 b9 V, K- K, @3 V/ i q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( b# f5 v+ x+ s* I) D) b$ e& x
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& }4 p' n6 } e& Wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
9 i6 `0 K* J% c+ p- omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 y) }1 ~+ S/ C) }
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 d, J3 W* |1 @" i$ o4 X
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ T( U4 p) d: |1 P8 R. l/ ~+ ]which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have5 f# `: o L9 o
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 \$ _/ Y$ o/ ? A; [ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 D/ a4 S6 p, t# g4 X( ?. d7 d6 S8 ~
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
# m. h' _3 {, A# P/ ]0 n8 t: [( ^7 Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 [7 l' s- d3 R. C& e# G( E
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) B4 V' S) F/ {
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, k) R4 l/ P& S1 ^6 W/ |the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. X/ p" }/ W* W8 Q: j$ l+ J
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 C: |; W5 Y- {: T; q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( g* u+ M: v) N! ^9 s
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 |# i d' J# ^% E2 E; |4 Dhistorically depressed levels.
; z2 H4 ]. y7 ^; k1 r' | Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost* S; [2 a; e+ K' [2 t7 x* f) \
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& S; o* }! [: x8 w" m- f& t2 o
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 e$ q! R9 F8 c, {
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ u* g: S$ V' k1 ^5 x2 p
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 a* @- W/ ?% W. Q
months ahead," added Hogue.
( C; o5 e2 n" G/ P$ W9 e/ j/ y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 M" r D, v. O, O' o7 T& {cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
( @% y: _$ b l4 R42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: X+ m" Z1 t' W$ s
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
\8 ~- p: Q9 Wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 }7 h* Q, K1 c) m
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ Y; t- H5 [$ H- ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 x3 Q& l- g6 j& d1 P* m# c2 c
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
s. g5 B) J0 y" J/ V8 wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% z8 p" d9 g+ h$ u4 o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" R+ ^% m5 z7 O/ l {' {
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
* n- A) a4 _( x4 u, Z4 \1 pcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
9 f+ n0 t+ \; [# v* ?1 w, y- Q' L% KFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership$ T p: r( p! V6 R" j
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 Z% f8 Y; p) v! \& r4 u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 `% D5 C: l5 c' a
B4 y2 r: Z9 c: `. v( U <<( u/ G' u8 e% ]
Highlights from across Canada:
6 f. Z1 ~/ x: O2 ]4 T) B5 V/ p& S9 }* C1 ^; n' p/ m. P
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& w0 j' Z& f; w
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ x& F, _: Q: N) a" a' ~
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ W9 M( N& Y" X) f1 z# ]
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- p1 J; t; `8 u& P0 w$ M5 {$ x
since about the middle of 2007.
7 @$ ?- P$ G: i - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! x p5 h0 C$ J- y# l frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" f6 q3 F9 N/ o' x: k8 k9 h decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 `" F3 Y; \& T' @+ o5 o+ b0 S+ }$ D6 M largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( B' _2 p$ o% k4 Q# U R poor affordability levels.
! \. G5 m9 f# u' S - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! `% ]7 A0 F+ R( ?( L& A# e# S
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* L, M- m; ]2 U5 E \
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 }4 ?3 C' K4 D& {- N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to, _$ \3 C$ c1 s( z" }
minimize any downside risks.5 c. f. c# l i' g, a, x9 A5 C4 @
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 E. j( g0 _7 L) B5 Q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; V% a& a; c6 k" P unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early5 Y' I- Q4 k$ \. q: _1 D
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! ^5 M2 u; c% @- ^. v/ U being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 \) u( @& W/ @8 U# \$ Z) q% a - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# L3 @/ [6 N. L, U! s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 e R6 f2 m5 J) g9 ]' ^( K T
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up" }+ F8 p- {6 z3 ]8 O! c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; h* N2 G; I, ]9 A0 {7 i) V ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, ]5 Q0 z" o* U; {/ D0 y
modestly in recent years.9 _/ D8 F- P* ^7 Z$ H1 E
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 G- s- \" ?; S0 m! E% B
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 ]4 Z9 o7 Q$ f- E2 x& J2 @
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward0 H. O- C# k- j) M( q/ z D0 Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, D0 K/ i4 d7 g- \3 F
following two years of deterioration.
+ e5 R4 Y! n/ ]* [+ o4 w >> |
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