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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 ?- k$ T% ?" ? TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( n7 J: v; u% i3 `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# P. u& E2 ^! T! Ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& h, a2 g2 ^1 Q2 z- V3 \
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 T: X/ P0 n4 P; E2 b$ ^ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 g$ S" \% m w8 T2 d1 M r; Hsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
4 q, F6 P: F V% B0 [/ a6 wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. o0 \; R; n9 ^& C+ l' Hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ @+ {9 g. |6 b' _( X" N" ^ n. m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 x- P( O0 ^) t8 v6 yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( W k2 x. Y. [0 C0 g; }; a
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- A/ O3 z: r% u! h
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( a6 \) C9 O/ G% \. Z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
6 U& D. U7 @$ wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a k* o% d0 ?1 R
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& _7 E! e5 H" a Z) l1 ` vAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 H* u" \5 f4 k. ^standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
* [5 k4 r" w9 }0 c6 ^5 H& X8 X- l5 Wthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 h+ d. C. ?% u- I According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 I9 q1 M% K$ f$ S3 O5 m
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in B+ a' D1 G q2 ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 K7 r$ I l( N# U% }
historically depressed levels.( S0 g* w( m% G- i5 w- ?
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ [/ T+ p& Q& @" f. V* Y) s
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" t" S f o% @ Rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
# G Q- n! `# w& \hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ e: }5 \( O6 N2 O
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ W9 }& D: f% r6 S8 kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
4 T# @7 y7 p# G* @- n RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 j/ N; \5 l$ \+ O' g
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 K" X. g& P' ^( G7 l5 w/ u
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# {3 b' x8 B5 G0 D& h1 \* N/ S The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 {, l# F! S, H, u8 y/ T( C: m! k ^
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, J" l5 z: R; E
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' Z3 _+ r* G2 p' @9 T* t% R5 I+ n
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& v, o* g0 F6 H3 \ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 R# F2 C5 {# o( P- O# D0 ?based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 P: ^7 j0 ^! u/ j$ ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
5 Z) W& J+ T8 Sincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' w. ], x# h# s3 R* Z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.7 x( u" \* b7 X n2 v
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* z7 U/ i& A8 @: R8 I; R" H, o
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% j3 q$ i# F. c, X1 fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
( F6 _+ X0 C1 O$ r7 g
$ E5 _# `! L# `( Z$ u <<
9 H; d3 X4 G/ \0 B, z2 J5 }. n Highlights from across Canada:
2 g7 c- q3 N1 k5 k. U
% ?4 F( g. k' B- Q1 N - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 B0 c2 G1 G/ S6 B" S* \: [! C% R% Y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing. I2 S% P, m i' A9 h, x5 }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound% q! T) M! h, F g" R' ~1 Z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) _; s @: g# D6 k$ W% L since about the middle of 2007.% N9 q' A& f/ R7 g; x
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! S/ t+ [7 y' ^. R2 E
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) P+ v2 G9 `. @8 K/ V8 P decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 R; C) ~; J A largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" \# p/ Z; {& A, r( f/ r poor affordability levels.9 U) B$ a+ s# Z7 T
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the4 h& e% m, L4 n& u
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) q" E" L+ p* Q! A9 [ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.9 D+ x/ g; o5 q0 {5 K
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 @; w. }% N1 B+ r( ] minimize any downside risks.. s( s8 Z+ S% s$ w8 B& _& V0 n
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! }7 n. |8 D0 V) }1 C
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is3 \2 p1 l9 I/ j' @
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 Q9 v4 q& o, ^: | 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" }+ ?% ^( l' K; e2 _
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.# }, s% O: B& k1 @6 c3 k
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ U& O( f0 |- p1 o8 ^
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus) Q6 a! R: K, b, G3 A
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 k: n" Y, z8 I7 H reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ a# N! }% j6 j! C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 T. }" ?7 I! b' [- \
modestly in recent years.% P3 S7 x' ?& V+ a" L
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% T3 u+ b$ d2 E3 I5 ^: Q5 ?9 @ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& Q; Z0 w. v# w0 n0 s# f spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; l7 Q0 E* z3 }3 X
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- D& I) @- i/ N7 i+ Y R( P* l! J p
following two years of deterioration.
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