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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 B" K# j# m- T2 m3 f; l TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ u9 T! [9 u+ n6 `
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. K* k" d# x, ~8 V, P" x+ W3 m" {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( r. Q. \3 G3 u
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) e$ I8 U0 w# E' D
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 Z2 g6 a+ k- z" ]: M" fsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is' ]6 f C. T: N: A2 N* k# L7 e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ T5 X. \ J. J0 F
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ o- i6 [, n1 d" B% j) z" _1 W' I RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' {0 u8 ?' v8 [1 g5 u$ Nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" F* V/ e+ `" r& E; kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
% U* `) Z1 x- k% Xsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! a" Y/ z. Q( z- s' V h9 M# }8 u9 R The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ H& @- X0 u3 ?7 I$ `proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a% R5 L$ ? E4 |, b( h" P; q) i
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: d0 |! ^" l! y' `# A \Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& I2 Z6 m/ {1 O' H0 z G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and9 c( l" j# B) J: G
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- l0 z' t' u! _, U
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
; O( \' o u$ s' Y, f6 Mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- H& |; C* f- O! Uthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 D# H4 m6 P9 `& f
historically depressed levels.
5 s$ q& a; \6 r* O, p' T( a Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
" z: `0 f# R- M2 J/ k. Rof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 f# h. j' L. R6 ]6 A. ~+ _5 oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the; n9 ~. M& O& Q( T1 S4 A. A
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- L o% u. M6 w9 O' aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! f5 I/ Z! l+ c r* @( smonths ahead," added Hogue.6 |- ]% j& a) L+ O: ^4 K
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
$ k: ~( |! ?6 u: Ocities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; S- I6 A. ^& C; Q, i1 ?6 D% T42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
0 { w5 E9 q8 b3 i% F9 P8 L" ~. m, b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 m6 J+ {, R+ N
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) L( o7 k* o5 s5 z+ o
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' L( P4 `: U# x. O
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" x5 A$ d/ [/ @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. \% m& @# v0 [+ k& P. y4 q- d2 }based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 I+ v+ [6 L0 j3 O3 [/ y* I0 R' lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented( }+ L6 A5 \; l* g) |
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' Y) _- J/ ]8 I" c8 h# A a
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 w+ I$ ]2 x3 A& |' |' X9 Z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
2 `- B. Q; A0 y& Scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 d, m2 @- ]3 x/ {" ?& x/ R5 f6 G, o8 V Z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 b6 a! M" l! `
, ^8 Q9 q& a! e# `" E <<- U' f' _7 ]9 v i+ B+ K8 s
Highlights from across Canada:: w/ n/ [, K) {( ]* b3 L& i* j7 k
% H7 [2 F* u& r - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 u- M+ e6 e2 c* }, G
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ Y0 j$ D7 d2 u9 v home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 q$ ^3 P2 f6 ?3 h( ~1 D only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) W1 R2 e3 ?9 R: B$ d since about the middle of 2007.7 v Z) {1 Z& ]1 o2 b9 T1 ^* n; `
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 v. d2 n) z/ c8 T
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
! I+ E( ~1 z# E. c2 y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* ?9 [0 p. g& S" V3 v7 M. c- z& k4 u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 X* n4 q+ @1 j6 u9 }
poor affordability levels.* b& C/ [8 j; q6 G7 k6 }0 y9 U1 r
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
7 A0 A8 p' Q" M7 v vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 A1 r1 H w4 s/ F. G# m7 H3 t
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& `, x2 x7 b" [4 `
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) {. B0 Q$ q8 d3 i7 h( @3 ^
minimize any downside risks.
2 v" I2 J0 h M& J+ [4 }4 O4 X: F - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market3 m. ^' G! s' f: R
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ w/ L% ?& k- f0 m0 M2 y/ {
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early; t2 w; i, V0 q! r+ V
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) r1 C( L3 T3 n0 I: i# G being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) v' W. H: |5 i( J/ A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ o2 Q5 w" Q: x9 o2 `5 {7 {
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 ~- F5 S x) C$ v& C far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 A# n, L3 F& s/ {" D. n
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 o/ v: L/ X6 [7 p" K
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 y5 K7 q- V7 M: C# s' j* x3 @ modestly in recent years.
$ w4 O% w: n4 F: I* j! y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
5 k* i3 }$ [$ [- K$ u! W8 O general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 j9 q' W! f3 `1 w+ k
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 ^6 V& N8 C; C" [$ g0 b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 z: C: G% y2 ] following two years of deterioration." z! o, \+ G/ c7 N
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