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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; f5 p3 L: ]) D ~% [2 U
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& y! d; v1 C5 e" K+ omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# x( _8 `8 [/ V: q) s% qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* \* p( z& |6 H- U9 x+ H: H+ eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 b6 G N; R; E8 w& V9 Z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 c$ H+ i5 g8 Q2 {! ~
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" P0 J# Y1 S. Q- p2 ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 `2 N' F8 P6 H$ P% ?/ zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 f; q9 t4 U0 D# R+ g9 W( q% Z% c1 p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% b% i: h* b; I' _$ e
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,! M! `: u# B9 W6 s
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 Y. C- R8 o9 D+ R9 I$ Wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: n v6 W" V9 m, }8 g( z B The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 W. k7 U6 Q( w& _% ~
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a) i1 c& ~) \/ |( b- w! E- H: U
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) m! K' D- O0 _6 T% R0 @: ^0 n
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 o1 d8 s0 x( i* B1 L, K$ _standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# p6 n b& @; R, M3 ?, H
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 u0 x6 T9 R1 C# l$ G
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 U6 s' ^# f8 P( f8 d% A1 Z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- `2 n+ p2 v* D- q8 C9 g/ ^; \5 x8 y3 pthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 e7 z* I$ x/ p5 w! h
historically depressed levels.
- _$ ?. N6 W4 s1 e& ^# i+ s Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) v* [" r z- g
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 {3 \. S: M0 B5 w5 Vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 N- J( B2 O) w1 w3 U, Zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This$ H8 X" B7 q Y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
9 B# s5 Y' B# O$ m: Kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
8 A3 v; \+ s" h; Q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' e6 g/ }( K( F, Q1 p4 H3 S5 pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 B& U; @* b0 C& T) s1 ~
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent., O4 m7 ]" T; V. j( v0 Q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 t& P1 r+ J( i! _1 y* H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ T0 p e- b- f$ P5 Dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only$ h5 N a& e9 v7 r! s {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: e4 ?' C8 q9 ^( d p The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% K/ T3 f" y- Q0 a4 Z' abased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 }4 V& U8 p# O
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 m0 |2 S' w% e; ^9 Eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ D& Y% I8 `1 c- g
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# g# H4 r+ K2 t: m
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 e2 s8 H; w( wcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 `+ Z& x6 B" D; o3 ^. v
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: J! ^6 m- P/ F8 x% y5 F( q# v0 f, ^/ c0 t5 L( s- E* y+ x
<<
/ |9 \" n$ T' M! Q; I* Y$ a Highlights from across Canada:
/ P/ G9 {0 o: h8 q r1 M7 h, I$ M+ B# ?4 ?+ B- E; }" c
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 k$ a' L0 P; w: | D& y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ p. `' m' M ~8 Z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 t3 \! e4 n, t8 T" w only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* ]$ ^4 ^ Z i4 O since about the middle of 2007.9 w2 D" s: n5 f6 t; {/ `
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the+ I8 J6 J# B Y2 f% p
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* U4 i& q5 Q. J, {% S5 R1 j decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ E: U; G+ r; R
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 ]! s2 b3 b- b8 m# i5 ]5 t+ T7 x6 E
poor affordability levels.! z5 Z7 L: u8 b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: P6 [4 M/ a4 ] I5 _ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and1 e' K# G/ G( D4 `: Y; A
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
W9 O7 u o4 @1 c* g% Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: d4 R! o- O. e5 w minimize any downside risks.8 d1 Q7 z W! p! H' ]
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 v, ] e I+ i, X. r0 @
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is3 w, c2 g! Y9 f+ ^
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early7 C' T9 {) u' ]% [7 u& S i3 w
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 @& h* G: R9 z! @7 p( `$ E being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 j5 g* }: P5 g1 y& ] - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, q) c; _/ |% H4 J/ c9 P& l: k
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* _: ?7 {( M- U {5 A0 } y# e
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 r+ ^4 O# y9 S8 c/ j! V" f
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 Z( I# G1 J a% @7 w- ]
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 d* P1 p: ~0 f9 M' t' F8 s" i modestly in recent years." o0 D& _6 P$ T- X: Q8 F
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the1 v3 Q5 y2 R% ]' f6 d
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 t! O0 F% c+ C4 p& a9 p8 O( \
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: Q9 b- L8 ]6 M; k% N* R% N
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 f# |) P( y+ n, \0 @
following two years of deterioration.
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