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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* [/ u1 y8 V9 I. N8 B TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ J1 P9 s9 L) g4 _+ Z0 p
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 U* l$ _: Z7 @
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ c! m! c0 p9 U% m( L! E* \according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 e* ], f8 R g; [8 D: @
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" k; ^. t' v; F$ i. v7 gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is7 w" V/ Y3 d$ \) o. ]6 n
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" [; o, @" t! W
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 s) R. Y' \% m. x; U RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
# r Z6 f4 [2 J# Y% Xworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) e, D8 y% k! _! F* N$ x3 S/ K' `& U
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 U% a( y$ l& r8 Xsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.2 @) v$ {9 |! O! r& p N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ I" U! M9 x# U$ v# \proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 w( S; P8 x" d, w! g+ S4 Fhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. v% _$ y7 W8 \1 Q+ L; [' D% I U( K
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the o v$ [ E" Z! V
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
' }8 T- ?1 c( k, v, |the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* O/ C6 P! d$ q' \( D z& q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets0 W5 \7 O$ _; W: N# I: i
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in g K, n1 I7 A _. ?% a# X; G
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 `/ v/ G H8 ~
historically depressed levels.; h0 |% k' a/ i9 o, [' Z( i) A
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 L1 o/ c Z3 {6 S4 o0 Zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 e4 k! X8 n# o: ]/ J- N
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! o. l" q0 e Ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 i" m% ]& ^% _) ?! j/ C( Kenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! h4 t- y* Q' ~% dmonths ahead," added Hogue.2 V! M r( u \; k2 N
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest q: W+ F5 i- V: F
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 c2 C1 p& u) S* S- B/ V8 Y# G' b* f) a
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 z- y: w0 u3 j7 i5 w The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for/ \& ~- j5 y V6 Q# p. V
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these& {. X; E) ?( t4 b7 T
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, C+ L# k8 v2 V9 l+ p! I8 e4 m5 q5 ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 l! y" ]1 J( s: p( ]! i6 q8 i
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 M& F/ K4 m! @8 i1 T9 i. \5 z
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ U2 ` K7 y. L* n% m Abenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% C1 e4 S( H9 Mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard- N2 X2 p0 c: f- Q) O
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* _! W) U# h* W2 i& _
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ f" @' g$ g( `9 w
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) @7 g8 o; I2 e9 A/ M5 }2 ~: p0 A
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& n2 D$ q/ T+ a+ a- |. U
9 v" Y( p6 H3 k1 D# y6 V
<<
c# }( e2 w6 {0 F% g Highlights from across Canada: A4 s* R, ]2 @% n+ G
" @- l( f: t3 Z# s - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( [9 O8 t0 r: x1 a( U l& g
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; B+ O6 E. \0 v) \+ a
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
0 z$ U2 q+ B) c0 C% L$ T! m only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! f# U7 l+ T% |* u B6 v2 E
since about the middle of 2007.$ l: t( m; c: ^0 ]8 \7 Y% ?
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 b) c: S5 W" J0 z( m7 q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to8 p8 C0 N( U K1 O) V+ i8 |/ a: O# w
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, D/ o% A' u8 V0 l- J; Y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. J: E3 q9 I0 K! O" [ poor affordability levels.
* v1 r- ]$ s& G0 t9 r1 c; z2 V* s0 g - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- X7 B3 v# U& F2 ]/ a) a/ b5 F& h
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ O9 b8 P% }# y8 R/ g5 q1 c! ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 q+ \1 f7 x3 x7 ]9 G
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 Q9 a2 g, y8 z/ v' t/ [) D minimize any downside risks.
: {9 l2 w7 I" c4 G$ O - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: W: f2 q' s' k: W) R3 D% ? conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) W( {3 g4 j8 Z- m unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 ~" z2 h; ?7 l. x
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; v0 I9 P* X+ e' | being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% d* M _, ?: B) i2 Q; q$ x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 V, z* r1 B! ~2 w$ A
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus6 L, D* z0 {* l; M, C. E: K, t8 \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up! c" R9 R5 z6 e( H6 s* c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. q/ K" [/ I l' O2 m( O# i' I' {
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) R) `4 N+ `6 _% ~$ g9 U
modestly in recent years.4 S; @7 e# h$ }$ d; Z) m" P8 W+ g- h0 [
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ B5 d2 n% C( G2 @ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' [4 g6 d) D5 W+ f# f( L( B9 B
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward$ B: H3 a$ L8 U3 D# O) d o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
' m- m4 x" F, D* B7 N, M6 I" P following two years of deterioration.& p; r4 e1 L" p2 J
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