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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # w- L$ R9 ]; d# W f
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; H5 }( t; d% {8 V, M$ }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" ]+ J* k) | ?% o3 ]/ H
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 |8 }! N- F; z5 j$ V
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% k6 Q" {% }2 K7 | "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 B: C' I2 m2 Z" D
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ P1 M: R# ]8 e n( E$ W7 z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, E2 \/ G# s6 K% J! z3 _; `" r
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& k2 M2 ?0 ~+ l; [ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( D2 A p% U. J9 y; }/ _ @, vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 }8 _5 O- K7 \/ }+ I
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 I2 C& d+ B7 @) i* v7 g5 D. p1 X
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., K: A2 z0 E' v( |' ^4 _* e9 F
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the/ y: O3 Y U# C( \
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- n9 e0 U4 p' u4 ~, T* g
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
B7 L/ m' i' V" nAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 d# W K. ^2 R! w( U, @standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ W* f ^ r% |& i# } P4 P
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 \3 b0 Z5 v' {/ Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( w+ J' w5 I7 x" E+ z+ U+ h6 H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 I3 N, x6 V: s' E' a# qthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at( O0 m2 p( h$ ]4 M0 [3 i- q
historically depressed levels.$ i1 l f8 a- N5 C" _( ~# y4 D/ A8 x% E
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 w- v8 u6 O, d- c8 Pof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 X; ^1 O- f w! z- A1 [4 t4 aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 Z# d" Z1 D; W" j. C3 ~6 L7 R* mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
6 b7 N5 r( h6 S6 M& j. benormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 ]% o E8 E4 R8 J
months ahead," added Hogue.* D7 T* X) ~) C, A7 |8 z2 z9 ]
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' U# F! I0 W! E, c; m! zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 Y- x) |5 x. P* x3 U! p42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( d( P4 A& s* r( Y( ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
( P9 n: O9 Z' c% t oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these! T) x& R8 m7 ]- E! G
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only5 F E u! H# l8 S
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
/ s# F8 {; l$ Z1 X, ^& D: z1 h3 ~ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# @$ c7 W0 Q, N/ R. @; w- r9 i
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; \0 ~6 [" x; gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% ~- g3 l* O( V. |; Z- J. R* pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 K2 J0 q& S+ D6 @' Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* k8 w+ ?2 J" uFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* F9 p7 e% |. F
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* Q, b7 ]% O% g1 W6 i% I8 hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 `6 |0 X0 J: B* ]
9 |% y: C. A& Q1 F5 X T <<
" S+ b7 S% v$ w0 q; K Highlights from across Canada:8 i$ i+ S% i/ F$ ]" H8 m
y( x9 I5 i. s/ _7 d4 i; V9 ] - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has# s: ^5 x. R) P3 J! q4 P9 M
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 A: J5 }$ A) [: e/ I- w0 T home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) ]+ f* k/ j, Q: ]
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track; J$ z6 @" K0 _8 Z {0 _1 Y; `
since about the middle of 2007.
1 [9 n6 m \; l+ W( h4 M - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 p: @$ c9 O# B' T; g$ v
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ ?. @* L$ y3 Y% o
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 a# L- V7 Z6 T6 W. O7 M- X$ l
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' o/ {* A; Z2 P* m4 q0 v poor affordability levels.. E% @- @. V& o& M( d/ Y4 l
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
; v5 m' `2 w$ { vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. c3 D3 H- d- `
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# G* s4 z* H; G7 k# z, b3 e$ ~0 ^2 v9 s Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( D o3 R! q* V$ G- Y- o8 ^
minimize any downside risks.
$ h H4 L4 k& k4 ]* ^ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 P% |; l1 [0 a; ^ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 w$ Y J, G2 |6 K' e/ {
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 ~" Y* ^% b* q3 P, v7 ` 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 F# Y3 I7 o7 y8 P
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 i V7 g, R1 X& E5 ~ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& k9 a9 _$ R$ f( O Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
9 y: S" ?* V7 z1 C3 Z! Y4 q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( ~) o0 c' u# [% i4 r1 B7 J reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 N" P3 V4 }0 t; B' Y$ V
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ ~$ o* Q: E" ]& g4 k3 z modestly in recent years./ B/ ]9 o Z- c. p) b
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
$ G+ [& ]- q% x7 G general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ M$ w# h1 _+ u) f* R, G
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward0 q a/ A6 \* W+ \( Z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability8 o1 L$ v# v7 H+ z% Z: \
following two years of deterioration.
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