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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* b' p8 K( V# ]; v TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, G) o; S5 h, c! ^
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 C8 i9 q% {& s: K# k
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# O- ?% l8 X9 b4 W
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 s0 Z7 H2 Q& `4 t c "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 ]( v3 o7 z- K" G( ]% M' nsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# D6 O# b, I( S; u2 R4 qimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" I, _3 {" R7 K( Omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."/ U. Y8 k8 F7 Z- D3 d" J
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 Z7 r5 i+ N4 ]* a. zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 O& U2 X, ]# ~7 i% W8 kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' q/ a n% ^9 `& J7 w! F4 f* j
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% `( t" b% G3 G+ M9 g* n The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: e; Z8 k0 g( D" v$ xproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. H# E, L/ m- ]- dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ }' S8 r6 Z1 i4 Q0 d
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- G" q, k, C# U" q9 Mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 t. f7 t* L( q2 \& x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
" H' r4 l7 z- t+ j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
, M `6 |( N! v' x0 q$ G" H4 {- Smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 g! U3 Y8 P/ `2 g c3 }the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at& q) C% l4 m& T# c# ~& Y9 H
historically depressed levels.* M- F9 }2 @" e" \- h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 b: x/ \+ o& Vof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 U) l4 [$ V9 V C
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ F% p" X: y0 g6 mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! q- M+ O6 l7 x5 T+ K8 H% ?enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' ] ]. Q" a% n/ i/ ?* W
months ahead," added Hogue.) H; E$ p7 ^- y; w2 e N$ W
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) m- b3 l. n' M. O. S8 V' i {cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- `1 r% M& S" a- ?7 S6 s- D: c42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 c% ~: w3 y* z" E The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
8 m- n P* x- J0 E3 Y$ xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' U2 s/ R: t2 k5 |: Xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ |9 d I( U" R+ z2 k+ p7 ^1 {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( F+ v9 G( l! x0 w1 @
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
9 ^- X7 M) @' z; @8 j4 Ubased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( i2 A9 o2 K; a0 l9 S
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 d, t" B+ l# B# [: t0 nincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) l6 I& M( T. u; q! S; c6 s' _
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 l6 `5 O, c7 P/ h; \
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
; K6 f3 r& n5 K. W& b) p$ ?/ }costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 508 D8 R7 `# h+ o
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; P, A B( u$ S+ ~; R
7 E L0 t: @; {( U# q/ ?
<<% e1 P- `" R" ^0 l$ B% a9 e2 {
Highlights from across Canada:
8 ~2 s( w# m ]* P; f4 a9 Y$ Y
& _! l) b( G/ p: E! U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( n. j/ ?2 ~% r; L' Y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing9 [9 L8 B7 J- R8 F: v- F7 W
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) p' i" `: {: U* @2 h( k only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track) \. j3 k- X/ I! j1 H5 I
since about the middle of 2007.
+ L6 G4 J% x! A3 r2 i( h7 P - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the) ?+ T( ?/ Z% L% s1 g
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- R5 B+ R- q" x decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 H" s, T. w; W2 S/ Z; i* ?6 X
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ D2 f: q2 p3 ?' W1 D. [. b8 t
poor affordability levels.7 d; \3 A1 z, f
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 J: _" x% _& Q! Q1 V7 j+ Q" P( o
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. ~2 x/ Q" f7 g, x* u prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 T$ E: n3 z9 @/ b Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ s5 B8 n) \: P7 v- _3 D
minimize any downside risks.& a& _! e8 ~. K
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; H2 b9 g8 y8 s! R' U+ j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& R; K' A' M6 j, o0 u4 |/ r" S/ x b4 g unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( w7 G/ M/ n) u& [; u3 r 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
]6 _" t u* r" X& m- [ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ d. H$ o1 Z% ~; `& p' {* y$ ~ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ b9 @3 W+ ^4 p9 z( _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) x; s% e( P6 @ B$ D! [0 t far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up! @ m1 r- n7 |3 a. j/ r W! h
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
( u- W9 F8 C3 q. P2 d3 H ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- @$ V$ [! x/ u& i% i7 P4 h
modestly in recent years.' j( \; p, N1 H1 e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* t9 y j- {: d1 p/ t( F general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) b& i8 \8 N8 r6 i1 Y- p spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 B0 _; B. e, D" Z0 U8 X/ f
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ W6 |" M" U9 _0 ~& m2 r3 {8 n# [
following two years of deterioration.& e _% [! C) B+ e w
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