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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 [! x$ C0 C5 n8 M6 k9 m
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ }# {/ m2 b! p! v: r9 q; k6 P
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 q1 r" g3 ~" N) M( ^( Kgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. j8 ]! _' k; q( I' B S+ }+ V/ Aaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- |; k9 J1 w' K m, C "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" m- z; m4 K& w9 Osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 Y+ D* Y4 V3 X# {& S4 Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 z% J, @& w2 q+ K" E
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! Y) ^. B d7 }* R( q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 F8 A7 H- M# U+ H8 s4 }
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
* ?' K# b- H4 d3 y1 x+ D% }which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- q1 z, x8 T, E3 Q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. a& B, N* W$ i& ?& }# ? The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the1 ?7 f+ \% j j$ M& D { x9 m
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 |9 B1 F2 k4 D! P& R: c8 |, R% D: ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
/ [4 j, ]) _0 h/ kAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the! ?& p/ B$ V6 C; p% U# X1 f4 j0 S
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and. N: U, n, B% `3 O4 T% t* c- `% z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 j* l9 E) n7 ?. T6 Q4 @/ r; L2 L According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 q5 |0 H+ a0 k; ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 b9 v5 r d7 p" p P8 F* S0 N" P% Athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 s9 @# X& m; l9 h* l, Bhistorically depressed levels.
, k6 s, Y9 H6 w" o' g+ ? Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ W1 k+ h3 p" y, O
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ r0 z. _5 T( Mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ d% t' ~ c2 Y' Y4 ]9 h H; Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! v9 H0 ?* Z/ ]! j7 e' E8 o
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 a+ e) k4 [( H4 _6 i! s8 bmonths ahead," added Hogue.
! H! k1 _. E+ [4 q- z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! X2 g$ d- F3 `: o* {$ L C" R4 Qcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
6 |5 i4 G. j" ^/ \42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% a' S4 d0 I0 L- Z" t/ n2 O* ? The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# P, F- Z0 q2 w9 e1 X. P0 S& Z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ u1 s' p- K+ R2 N6 C
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" v$ S2 Z' H/ J" qtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
0 @0 Z/ L+ d' X, h8 X) P The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% r( p9 q' T8 l1 {- o; t
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property- y U5 z0 a2 x; J- U6 X$ v
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% a! u8 q2 L" bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. n: b, J+ [5 ^% L% Qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 K/ H8 q) j: H& c% N* f1 P
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership+ k3 A6 h/ ^) {6 z( h2 }) I
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- w6 K' Z, Y$ e" z) h8 A
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' d+ I( w/ e# Z9 `- P
2 V y! d' K0 `. S8 ^; z <<; `9 O! I4 G% l5 ^6 g
Highlights from across Canada:9 N9 y4 \6 G: q' u$ r3 G* X, l
& Q# G' C: \+ N5 Y" b$ j
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
. i& Z- Z$ h0 O I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! q( s' p6 S5 t T8 U" B, P+ F home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound3 e1 Y7 X* r; _: i; T+ g
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track+ b7 B9 q6 C, g- G) b2 m
since about the middle of 2007.) U9 n3 u* B0 l% l
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 i6 ` O, I$ ]) x! ` frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. t6 h/ x$ ^3 a V/ {- f6 U
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' k1 F) z0 V A) v! q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# I! m; O! m6 h5 \ poor affordability levels.0 b1 Z& X# t: ~# |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 ]4 t; y( y# g: m1 n! [
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! b9 ]* P) }, |3 n: w( J7 m+ k5 T prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 O2 w U, @# J$ E m) K% \" z% ^ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ l' Q1 {7 p4 s; c, q% ^
minimize any downside risks.
$ k# ?- m( b* O# [) C9 s - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ Q2 Y. I( i2 j( T9 ^( ]3 r. N
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! [/ A2 h E4 b' G+ m5 T. O% M unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early8 y0 c" A+ d; g/ R3 x' f r
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 ?( {2 @ S, I7 K! r# @( a being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. K3 r, T4 F H7 {9 [ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
5 y6 b; j& g( q- b+ M/ _ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus9 M/ W; k! e" M3 v1 S6 O
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up& ~5 J* y$ S! h- m$ W2 s4 S
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 J0 d, N" A; E2 ^' I# A ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 o; n2 P$ z- j3 z( K/ R+ \
modestly in recent years.
: J) O" j) j2 z0 y; z" O+ w - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 c% L3 R$ g3 f3 U5 }- W general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. N. z( W; h* [9 B6 b# n spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* R$ W6 @7 q5 o$ W1 e- e
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" _) X1 t3 Y" M T) G% h following two years of deterioration.
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