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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 ~2 y/ D8 x2 m1 t8 K- W! f6 @5 y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the1 T( _) g1 D6 _( t! \3 r$ T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive2 o0 M4 j& I+ Y, R1 N. k# ]) c' x
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 n2 d0 @7 [, i8 y% g0 h8 vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& J% ^; v' L3 ~/ G) [. T" x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"/ Q2 F4 _8 a' n4 k; L) c8 I
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" C- n1 J6 u6 v$ i7 W3 h/ c5 g+ ~improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability' s* ~: z" X9 r
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ a0 s" k( {3 u5 m5 C
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' Z) Y2 m$ ?/ q% c+ qworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% Z; s" g# l8 h8 n' R9 X# d$ _$ Gwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' o/ \2 `2 {7 `# l' Q1 P
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. s* p7 U% w- D' o0 S The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 L# f$ \# v# w* o9 [proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; z5 [2 B9 e& A; p! o$ i
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 D, ~; N, e# \- h, bAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' r8 q9 ~9 l1 \; D& K& Ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( ^% L" H" N2 Y/ v1 @! |6 K
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 _7 x5 w- g2 y- T7 s, j2 l
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: y. y' K) p' g* n
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 @' Q7 p6 w) L/ U; r* H4 p
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, Z! Z' Y5 Z7 ]# P; q) m$ m, m
historically depressed levels.
" x, R& Z* G7 I* y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 V! M9 Z( I! @. J3 b- tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, X& n4 e6 m2 J+ t/ u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the M- U @) S: [) `' Q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This6 d( |: Z b; Z1 L1 k0 t2 b
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& Y' p8 I$ e) M0 [/ y
months ahead," added Hogue.. K2 _( i3 x" N
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( R. U% ^3 r. U$ s& k# u; }3 G
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* C7 i+ B X% C2 Z1 [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ a9 v. I, h) ]. D
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: x7 K% f9 B! y; h4 _
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 D7 W" W! W! e* T" c+ ^0 C7 x
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ {$ e2 G, B5 P: s
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 Q6 w0 e u% m( q/ E The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 Z; d, K" p& G3 G, f/ W$ E( |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 P; y" B( |6 q: g$ r xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented) ?: V# O0 f7 a0 P i; `/ W- R0 Z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% E$ ]+ i, w8 j+ x" f$ Z! Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 G0 @2 ^7 M# F- N# D! `3 [( g' X W( P
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- K, k' |* C9 `) o, k9 Scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
. p- J/ A j" c0 I4 R$ Y2 k8 |per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 P; ~* h5 f9 S6 R+ \' Q
T; J; A$ T) I2 H <<
6 |' ^+ y3 ?% k) ~; t& b Highlights from across Canada:6 P W; z# o" [1 p$ X; N9 A
6 ` \* x0 z8 L( t: O
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 X1 F- H$ `( Q$ @( t% ~; r& P; I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ j# g: E2 U6 [- w
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound9 C0 M/ r4 V" E4 P& p1 o$ R
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 X! \& c5 M. y$ i* N: J
since about the middle of 2007." R- L0 q# Y+ j8 h2 W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the0 v- W( C0 o4 k. g8 O" B* @9 r
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
3 M/ ~& h" U/ v9 I decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still8 p& T2 M: s' R& b& @9 A4 s+ y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely v+ |. X/ K% j# \6 Q) @5 ?2 c
poor affordability levels.
/ G! \ i, j. X5 P6 J - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) K- u ^1 T! I: @# J3 _% O6 u& \
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% v5 U$ e8 W A4 W2 R7 E; Z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 j5 U# n5 I& a/ n
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 i) e- Y0 u3 E5 h+ F( l
minimize any downside risks.( O2 N( L" M+ Q- }
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* `- I& F+ j. W9 w6 r conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 S7 F. ]3 t" r+ X6 @ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early! \ B% i3 B* B( ^9 k7 e/ e3 y8 _
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 _8 U4 Y4 _# W' N+ w
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ x1 ]+ r5 p1 g6 _ _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! d& q; t9 J2 E: ]; k6 A! R Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% _3 W& Z0 p# Y* r8 b2 E2 ?
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: |3 j: }6 w+ _+ C& J0 K reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 S4 }: j5 t" a, k; ~ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 T" F% k/ |' a; x, S0 C& j. P modestly in recent years.+ l& p3 p) P( z; S
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
8 i$ x) x0 |/ p, s9 T& R general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; u6 X5 c' y% i& J spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- d# O$ R$ a" b6 H3 S# @0 w) S* f2 A1 _ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 { r3 e+ d2 {% ^. U6 @1 x( D- w following two years of deterioration.: d1 x9 \! {0 R: b5 {
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