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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 j- x) C0 `5 |( Z2 d! E( @ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
~/ @, Z& T1 M vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& A M; E/ Z8 E/ t" b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, P0 j7 a6 R$ Uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
Z7 z: \( W! P "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"' s* ~, p$ k% H) X8 ~! v
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% D5 c0 O- u) f2 x
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability0 h6 M4 ~% }% F" ~* t# a+ s
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ ?- O U( m% `) E% `2 M! w0 u RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. z+ r9 W* i& ?+ e) _9 |worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,/ g" Y O0 f8 v7 S! Q8 ^; Y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( ~& S3 y* f) A) H8 u: R. o
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 v& j7 u7 u( l R5 D% c. O
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 b3 {- {( S4 W; J: x% K5 X u. I
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
+ C4 } t8 w; |) \) t* V! Ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
5 j3 ^" G% E6 J2 CAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( n$ h2 d4 I5 [1 B
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 H) u' L7 F9 C
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
5 b! ?5 i& P, Y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 r8 [3 Q2 z6 ]0 t# a
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, v) c( l, m7 h5 O+ r' A9 @the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) D9 f4 k1 R4 ^3 Y, Hhistorically depressed levels.$ g3 Q" L+ N8 I/ g [
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
" g: x2 s9 h( d2 yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% m4 G2 @ v$ u+ r& A8 U: {prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- J9 x( h# G8 j+ y; G8 O* o f
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, I5 k* t3 e* M, Jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' d- j6 F! ?$ j9 e' ymonths ahead," added Hogue.0 m- U4 l- d+ C5 C9 G, \% @4 @
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% ~: f, E1 V* j* i1 e! s
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* Z( x/ V. P) i1 d, M1 K
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 c6 c( {1 ^0 Y$ H R% [/ o' S+ Z
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for, H0 K1 U- j4 l3 k
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' b* U8 x" {/ o( q2 [$ G% ~
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
* p- B# I3 ~9 R& y9 xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ A/ v" p: Y& S The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. @+ x! m9 E' a) u, T
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ J V" @$ |1 e" y- a9 e: Z3 J9 y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" z3 k/ n. `. w3 R) ]& I s! Rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" c8 z, w' k3 J E7 }1 M3 B
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. o! ]: j G }% k) Y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 S7 U0 ^* ^% {3 b7 S; H2 |
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 508 Z: ^: h8 L7 \
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 [9 g, H4 ]7 |8 A( T1 d; M
7 B- c) v$ Z$ E6 B. i# z& U9 @" m) N <<
) x; W3 z, H' a1 t Highlights from across Canada:
' |9 `. P/ S, S# ^! A4 U# D
2 l* N- A- }9 M - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 m4 D+ U4 \* [/ [4 u3 B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing. c, D4 U4 n% P
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% D; a+ C; n/ s `2 [ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' O: J$ l+ B) M& h
since about the middle of 2007.5 ]5 q$ h/ O" t4 d" |4 i
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- M0 u$ `" H: L7 q; ~& O
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 Z1 ^, F! b; Q# K
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! q8 b1 m7 x6 N+ N$ c6 _3 D
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! R. g2 c1 _8 f$ n; }/ w poor affordability levels.
" Y) c8 _. I: N - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
" }5 m5 Z1 e& n" J9 K/ u: N* C% J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 t/ S9 o8 u' W; e) y% l& g3 ~
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: ^) L j8 l2 Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 B9 u& V' v$ `, t minimize any downside risks.
; @3 X5 k* \. b" ]8 R - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, d# I! R/ o, b. [
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# }4 ], g) T, b" a% ?
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ ] N5 C. q7 V 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: {& ]- R8 X! v4 ~- L% e$ F; C0 S! T
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 j/ c* p5 }0 F7 `5 {! p8 C7 D - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 R3 H2 O! |4 _3 A, m) d8 K
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 d/ l* ?" p. A, I/ q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# N7 m, |0 N! t
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 B- f; t5 l( t# R2 e9 S
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: k# N; z* `: a: Y( [1 A1 b
modestly in recent years.
6 T8 v8 t6 E* S- w0 k$ ` - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, p3 i% t, J& ~0 M) I
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ ~) _, }! g* j0 d4 w/ i2 ~
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
" Q- |3 e. R0 P) T price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( O% J0 A! l* j/ `: K following two years of deterioration.
3 v. K8 J, L- K( y3 }4 h >> |
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