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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
' {9 J7 O; N. T$ }0 W/ i; } TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 O) t" w. a, F* e
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) r7 v+ D/ l6 M" C) {3 Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 j: z# h1 @6 J6 n% t
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ p4 m% c+ T! M% e K: }" J; N% Q# E
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 Q" H9 p4 b- h0 o- @2 r- P
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 l$ D) X0 ^0 c* _2 S5 v3 M
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& H2 [; u# _4 T) Hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# z9 Z; h4 Y" ^2 q6 T- G7 t
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- U' B0 N5 l/ c& ?7 D+ cworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: r# L6 U2 ~0 \6 O8 L ^which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
3 m. ]- B4 P5 T( Esustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.$ s1 C$ Z5 k4 c2 P o. a6 G
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 X0 u. `6 O7 k
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- K& }4 H, d- w, e, @0 \+ B) \home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
! D- K0 T/ Z6 I; R& r D$ lAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the ^1 I8 a# r+ I+ p/ A+ {' R
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 ]5 O, n/ V& Q) ]8 D& v0 S
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 J! m1 ]: W( ^5 {4 v9 q7 |( @
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: n' g1 ?/ n9 M4 G; g5 L9 M
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in6 _* e u9 Q' x/ k
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 P. s' s; Q4 N; Z+ i0 j" u( ?9 V: Ohistorically depressed levels.+ |7 A t' b+ {0 b
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
3 y+ A0 I( I& `3 Z/ A' k: zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House% {- P$ S' \) p' b9 |* v: `: u! V" n
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 D0 \# ]4 B1 Z( rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 s, D$ e/ Q8 K9 Y; Wenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& p- g* u+ e6 S/ w- n2 M8 nmonths ahead," added Hogue.2 x) v! [ N! J' X8 r1 g
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; F2 C! a" L; [; U; Mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 X' s" B! d) `1 D* C% Y42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
$ N4 |8 y1 X2 q ~" }/ L/ \* o) |9 I" ^ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
# }- |5 x' P/ S+ U3 Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 x& e6 \1 s9 ^4 m4 p: [. i3 vcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only2 Z' \ `- q* o: W
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# i4 ^, }0 G" n, f The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 y/ |" F+ _' k: F f/ k1 fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ ]! J) e8 d) n! _
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented6 i5 H3 Q7 j0 r( U5 N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 k, B, e+ J. Z/ C- acondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 q0 g8 {5 s& _ T! Z* k' _6 I
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# g; D* [/ Z) X" x" E& C+ M2 vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ c/ H% c+ G; ^* s
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 e9 \# q+ `0 v/ v
4 `- C; `5 j- V2 j, k <<
7 b: T! Y. l/ |( p3 U( Z5 w% | Highlights from across Canada:
! u0 `2 S1 x& H+ H, t6 c* O! v$ G+ `- p+ ]7 i% z9 P+ l2 e, k
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 s8 C8 P) \# _" A) A! A5 g0 l intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: J6 p) }! |, p0 p$ l3 M3 o
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
+ Y& {/ Z. d/ `# r6 S only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 @" k" `1 I- K: }; \; ^ since about the middle of 2007.
3 v: e7 g1 t% x+ E - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, e/ \5 F( O" R, p r( k frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. y L. W! U! K$ W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
5 V4 H8 o- P1 o7 a largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% @. ~) I* S0 A( b1 z poor affordability levels.
6 L; s. h/ \) u- \$ X( m* Q; B" E g - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' S; J/ j& ~# G, ` vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ y, Q1 @( V8 D* P- q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 C& I& l# s- v9 w2 m& H& w$ [ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' o7 i$ e/ K6 P# c6 m3 v minimize any downside risks./ L7 x; L2 G% i. {/ G
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* `, @% F9 k6 j$ A6 Q5 k" u# S
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" S5 D! u4 u$ z3 V- M6 U& U unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. b' U% q4 ^! U5 {; O, S6 U. ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 j6 C9 K) N. `4 m. F being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 j& S: j. ?1 y: P/ \: I - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# U- u0 z$ N8 Y! m" O* y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, v4 F4 ]. H( E+ o
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 ~) l% y% W* q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
9 A6 p9 v& S! d3 e; N( v3 q. ? ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 O O& s# i( v* O1 y A l
modestly in recent years.
& Y8 X3 }4 M' I - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ c+ N: A7 J, [4 y# D
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% p3 P7 u6 F! J- W
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward6 K- @; B! E3 z" X! @1 B) J# e% K o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* u1 A+ q; I, H following two years of deterioration.6 Z3 B2 h6 I _% J- c/ q8 D; O
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