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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; p. B& U9 F+ N5 w: K$ Z9 C TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
% i* W f7 d, y: q2 t9 A% dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ o. V; N* g4 G* y1 fgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# [& X# Y9 \# z9 T' A9 x7 P5 saccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics., o" N$ o4 K# G* q, e0 P+ A/ X
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," K1 x5 B! e& |+ U) v
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" B/ X! t* H* h, ^0 |# l/ Ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, Y% C' h1 \. d3 rmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 g/ e% \* _% x, q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- O& g$ O3 }/ hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 t, z- f! @# T. M" x
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 s/ @0 n% Q% S) U# q6 _0 I6 v
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) O; y2 S6 Q2 r2 r j The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. I2 [) j: ~! D4 L5 w& ^- `- K
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- M$ e' t1 q2 T% R5 ?+ Zhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: q4 o. w7 t |" [: I/ b" ^, Z- QAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
W# N( x" ~: \0 F4 W- V: j; j3 Tstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 m3 W/ y( g* c4 ~
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% }$ l* b* X; a$ Y6 r: F0 j: E
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: {& O F6 I7 s- S; K0 E8 S/ mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 T6 ]# s1 c( W3 ~7 e7 l; k3 vthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* i) W! B# }8 s- R- Shistorically depressed levels.. S2 u @& ?4 m0 _ C6 K, }3 }
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
z" |/ D: A8 [7 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House; }9 C. }3 g" b0 b1 `4 \/ Q
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
' M! Z; R* u6 I; o4 _4 m& dhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 @8 l: R+ l7 \5 aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; i, T: s3 k/ O% L+ I& V, dmonths ahead," added Hogue./ Z- U2 X5 k: w# O; W# X8 b# b
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
( y: g2 D$ V* i$ c4 i' m2 gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ M7 I4 F3 X; V, Q& L42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- w& a, R- U6 d# x, q4 S6 [ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 R! a3 y# c. J6 \( A5 M' pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: |6 \2 x9 N7 [. Acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only5 L2 v! p z! E
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. d* Q4 U3 _, I" j The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 r/ J2 t. ]& W$ ]3 F
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 U6 W0 @) ^ Zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented y5 G- a- `) x
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 ^6 @0 G( U2 u1 _$ Y; ]1 [, H
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ m) G& E/ e7 K( ], w+ g' B
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 O# ?% j1 C$ ~- a+ ~9 fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) |* F! W5 v3 P* r; x/ ]
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ n. q* a! Z$ v& ^3 Y
* d+ S2 m" o5 u& b% P <<& g3 O- {0 o0 E+ W* @6 K% F
Highlights from across Canada:
: I7 W# a: V# f. s7 B) m0 O8 Y0 A
h" e" u: j7 _$ u - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ f0 _; ]. j. T7 Q* ^
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing! o0 [$ H- A: ]2 K1 d2 u
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* i* D0 p$ Q6 O9 M `6 Z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& w3 u5 w4 R# |+ d: M since about the middle of 2007.- s: B$ G. Y1 @* l& n8 c( l) y! O
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 S5 L6 e9 ~" v* z
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to% t$ |3 h9 ~3 n( g' J2 A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 _$ G/ X# i; Q U8 e) I largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely& _ u2 u( e' V
poor affordability levels.
/ t3 D- Y$ }1 [; E$ p( y - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 O7 b( p% l& ?' I! e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 p9 M5 @2 W& N5 |
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 E& G0 F8 f; o9 P5 t- V
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" A* J1 E2 r% P9 j* e minimize any downside risks.
( s% l( r7 \! T# _" I1 w - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 L) e- \) {0 V& L2 ]8 J$ |5 j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 Z3 p J& n g. l unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early- o& K& p3 C( a7 [3 Y' r8 E9 R
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) |( x7 n' j% [4 ~, U ~
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ O/ C5 j; E2 _/ F4 h K. q& O - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in @- g: S% h; e9 W. W$ G
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 b! k6 c! z& F* j far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
0 p9 l8 C B. Y1 Q. t reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be5 y1 t& g) Q0 Q4 c) F( @% A
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 k+ z. \0 q! q1 X% |' H0 G' z
modestly in recent years.
: K& [) z* g- E! t& r/ a, | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. S: V- m* B& r1 `9 `0 v/ S
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ E3 m) {4 B1 V: A, S# T5 \
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. h9 v4 _- ]0 s2 U price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! L& @8 h. b0 V0 x2 j1 k5 N
following two years of deterioration.: W# T# i; e8 B# ~. B( {
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