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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 a! A, i- G5 A5 J$ b% ] TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ @, v( k& M E$ l8 T2 r5 F
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 u2 S2 Y1 w* k o: L
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! E$ K* p% T5 T( V0 ]according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: Q% m, E1 b/ I. x- k "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; k+ k( w8 B# R
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# t5 {3 ~3 E0 i3 t
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" Z& B- Q% [: k8 R$ Y3 u
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
0 z! M" \1 d+ t# ?8 W5 J4 u RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' v3 O6 @& p# O( g- {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
5 b9 u1 n1 F, R5 ]. bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 @- X5 E! Q+ [& H# a2 L' ?sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
& `, w4 P! S. {! ?1 v% @' ~) X The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, }% z; |/ J) F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, L9 f8 F$ V s! b- t' R5 S2 a8 e
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 ^/ h, I6 P ~Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 w" C$ U0 n7 k& Tstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- ]* n+ P# ?1 l/ Y& [* C8 i j
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
1 e6 L7 ^% s9 C' Z4 n: M( \; \3 o According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets" `/ y3 l2 v! X9 q1 b4 @; }9 S$ t; d
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* W. J2 p6 e Z. A# {8 ithe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 @' l+ G3 b/ X6 ~+ R Thistorically depressed levels.
) N& T9 R. v Y8 k$ Q/ C6 y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
) U6 j; E) i2 T% a3 p% d! Dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 j; {% I3 s) y0 hprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 J. x. r/ U; T# \8 mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ y! l/ @: {/ N4 ] h3 Xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 M- Z6 F. v; E: S' D! y# [1 M/ Smonths ahead," added Hogue./ R; W$ m* s8 J
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ j- _( X9 K% A
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 L/ m' T% e1 _2 O6 |# ^/ x
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ S. l, `3 H* h |) q The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 _* T5 s5 E5 L! h# y! i8 [
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these# ?" J) J1 @, ]! T- m. ~; J; r* |
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only/ ]+ B" D/ b+ O1 O5 l6 N' V& A" [
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 v5 P; F1 G" Y3 q+ F1 a The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* R0 b0 W' O& T5 Ebased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property4 B9 k2 h0 ^6 M) A
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% C$ P5 F' f6 E7 Yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
; V. r( d- a% z. @( P* C8 d9 x0 Gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) N3 c( e6 [4 Y8 {) H/ K4 `For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: }' @5 a) C' [( @; L* J
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ b5 a8 R, V; i6 b8 ^6 P6 i
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 Q _# Q% O# f7 Y# `4 @
2 G0 c) t3 D! ]/ @ <<+ `7 o3 B, n% A& A7 g- w" s
Highlights from across Canada:' @$ V- V2 _ l% m0 q* t. y
% _1 U; L+ `( f& X - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
) V3 D: P. j0 G) M2 c intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 V) h) Z& G+ G+ o3 n- ^) d2 S% ]+ p
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
$ {, ^7 Z \% M7 L only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ z4 \( i% b, m$ N; T+ n since about the middle of 2007.
6 }2 {$ j1 r; m/ ^- c - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) {" B& a4 b5 V6 t3 J+ V" d1 g$ R- [7 Z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 S0 v) f6 V- |- _
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still+ `, c; |* |, N$ M+ P8 ]; l
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- j" @" D& p' c8 T, b5 r
poor affordability levels., D* k' Z3 ~- O5 M0 U( s
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: f( d/ @6 ]& T3 \7 ]6 v6 u vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% ?& K# b& L) o. r. g prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 I- _9 R9 {7 V' H: j" E4 r
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& t$ a0 o; `* M3 U* b* Q: f
minimize any downside risks.
7 M5 T2 D) X+ H# y - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 ^9 ^" ^/ o" U
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 v% r4 e: D! Y' Z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
w I# j4 n1 d: D" u 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
4 ~0 Y) a- l$ [# ]0 } being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' n% F4 w- W; y+ X& o1 [% u+ O2 m6 ` - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) |) J- }1 J# X' i. x& m- c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 G$ k; F$ b3 D3 R- E% n) H8 W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% s5 B$ i2 G4 v# } d. Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- v# p5 K: g( r' O, J6 a/ o0 s
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
3 E' f5 V; Y$ \0 l d' v modestly in recent years.
2 r6 O. K5 I5 @; q( d# ^ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ x2 ]+ H4 M/ z% d$ X
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ M; i4 z$ |0 C1 W9 o
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward ?# E( f) f7 ~9 ?4 ]. M
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 b3 e. I* Y* J7 S9 D: x+ Z
following two years of deterioration.6 _3 j T3 U+ U% [5 _2 S
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