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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 G7 c1 m9 B: K# Z r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 V) ^( x0 Y$ b1 E
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ D4 M! `) }' j5 V8 Y1 a9 m* _
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,. C2 {2 K) b! G
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. p) f0 l e# W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", D. h0 I5 ]8 M1 f, @; G
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. o0 i4 o, K R6 Yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 G/ X& `5 k$ [7 X% S) v4 {
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
3 {/ f5 A6 w+ H# G7 {& { RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. `4 j+ I" o$ K- M$ @- o
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing," h9 G: b4 d3 v8 p
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! c5 c9 [" V" ?sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ E) Q* `' \" S: t' |/ y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 z9 g5 s3 F p+ q/ K# N* i
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! t+ i( m) U: Mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 m! S. _ s: G0 E! M# ?
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. ^$ h$ h( W* l. ?2 V/ P
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- S) z: q4 |# _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
% P7 V3 b+ Q, N4 i1 O) i7 J According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 Y9 f! L' o# D3 K) k t
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 `- n2 D/ [. |4 f7 t3 p- |" pthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
0 L4 h. i8 L9 A$ c& Ghistorically depressed levels.
* u- c1 e( e' J2 W9 {, H" h Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 f: n H" e$ r6 C, l
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House% U. ^+ x- p. j% E5 y$ V
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 D, c' h' h* z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; ^+ N3 E' _) O2 I' A
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 K* D5 a7 z( y' U' g' a/ S
months ahead," added Hogue.
$ \6 H, M. _) Q9 W6 O$ I+ `& H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, x5 A* X$ M& K- M) Hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- O4 Q! j Y0 s' o' t7 t
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 p; d/ k% `. w7 }& g4 Q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. z; ^% Z8 F1 [; U! Y- i6 c Y
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, | I4 q) _1 Y* Lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
3 M# ~, s2 W/ | ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 `' b( D( s% X! c8 g, }, {, Z: U The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( M9 p" H/ T R G1 Abased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! p: a" }. t* u0 x. ^1 x, Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented4 U3 G8 u$ a9 K' T1 m+ z- h2 E
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 w! r6 Y/ F/ F
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. i& p7 a1 X3 a* _' S6 l
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ [: D: B4 R a K5 M) d! bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
! a) A. o/ y* Z; s6 j! {- rper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) S! E6 m6 Y; P" _
3 V6 N& p& I6 j
<<
2 y. g+ G4 E4 } Highlights from across Canada:2 r8 [, B/ V( ?1 G+ d7 o& H# K0 L
* B8 ? A: X) h8 z" B Z$ t
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has @1 q1 D; X6 u' b: `4 ~
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( A2 B( W6 u5 [$ e6 a% {- B( [
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- |0 g M7 C. W* z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; x" c. e6 F$ W5 x$ a since about the middle of 2007.( \! E ^3 ^& K+ k
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- T2 a3 t% c9 q+ y% p7 @ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( d6 \! ]) \& x7 D decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ a4 R" `; ]* ~- J1 b7 _
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ J% n9 G" b) A/ f b2 n0 r3 f
poor affordability levels.
8 Z4 @2 ^9 w! \2 d - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: N) r) `( Z2 [4 Q% H5 J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 f2 K% b+ ]: `6 d+ T& v4 x& v* V: w' k prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 N t1 m$ X2 ] Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
, E4 R$ C/ L7 p minimize any downside risks.
5 g! y* Q3 O7 A# @1 T- K - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ A. j9 P5 o3 T3 l$ {
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ z$ G) P+ O, ^2 ], A5 P J/ O i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: @" ` L" @/ ^9 { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 u- |) c7 J, @' G being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 X( a7 N# c" Z - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, n3 S7 m8 r; E, e
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus u2 T8 {, v# f ^
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ o8 e9 l2 h( Y# P4 C reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 H, e! i8 U( o
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 I8 b# x( J/ V4 ] modestly in recent years.
% Y: A/ K/ d9 y; a$ n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
- [2 S8 R c/ p- `+ ?& | general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% s2 W* }: v8 x; F8 [7 m+ u* Q
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ f8 a4 f4 K: E- B- \7 W price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" E/ K/ C V8 J( [# G1 ^' n2 j9 {
following two years of deterioration.2 I" g* B% f; s& {' y
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