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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # y# s7 M$ d! m9 x5 u
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 M# j, E/ K5 X# Z; ~
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive% n+ c1 f. u; R! V
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* P2 W4 F+ A: K; @! C% q7 J j- M
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# P T: M6 I3 P. l1 K: z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 K7 M+ Z V* _+ f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ d+ h- p& z) i9 y$ ~: x( o
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
- V4 h+ o3 }+ D0 q; O; }8 pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) X6 N; i, O+ v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' C7 [3 Z2 K, X5 X
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,! {- A7 K- j8 u/ t2 j/ R( l, z
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( C3 H4 X1 W( }0 a/ w6 wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 |) s: C) ^# l) }6 D' X The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( K, N% W& K3 u9 x$ K w! I% D) o* Hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. W7 a; ~5 g3 g& U6 P) h
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.5 N5 m; i( ^& ~. H1 E, v9 G8 n# p
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the3 h3 {" U9 r7 Q, W* e. }0 t9 @4 m, k! V
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* i# e* O! {4 D5 V' i
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 `/ T2 @8 j6 X1 I6 B/ r5 a According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( `) [! _* @$ N, M1 z( W7 D
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ G) h' q) f/ I; H4 k3 ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) T0 g, P/ D$ U/ G# a
historically depressed levels.' n: d( Z/ ?$ @& y; T% n
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, I/ r8 ^8 O0 g w, T
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House F; R( W: P0 _* T \7 I: k7 u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
+ m% H1 r+ u& W) Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- E3 { T6 A: }/ y$ nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, D4 F0 ?, ~) M" w J# }2 c; imonths ahead," added Hogue.
2 h; e" i/ b3 y" `6 M RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! l$ Z) R" N: Hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* k0 M' K) E" q
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 a& h0 M0 W4 q8 I7 A1 B3 E+ [7 M9 L; O
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 j2 ]( r0 {6 S
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
; |1 C: F" A4 F% c/ g/ Ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& ~ Q0 J( j3 h/ g" \. c! [takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., K# I% q1 q% h
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is- N4 Q1 y) ~4 h/ H3 A
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 _7 |! `- F6 ^9 \+ ?benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
3 X" D) e4 F) S: f! ~& ~, j& @including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
P5 q; I4 N. R+ U( @$ ]$ Ycondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
6 _8 J7 a# @' S, E) _0 AFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
; T* s; f/ @- M. e! H4 r! P* W/ F" ^4 Ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; D1 F& N3 o' Eper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.9 {0 ]" ~3 G9 e# m% g8 x) p0 V# M
. d1 \6 s$ l* F# b5 k# H3 f% f
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) h6 N+ v/ x- z. S. o$ K" k& j/ p Highlights from across Canada:
3 w& T+ B: J: ~7 q( w& p4 M% r" Y7 }: V2 a, D# k6 g
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 w; _( J9 e2 g! e6 \9 P4 P% ~ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- q9 p7 `8 B0 c! s home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( s# n6 S% L) Y3 Y7 P3 A$ P only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 A/ P3 B- M, U5 ^" R8 x7 E since about the middle of 2007.% A0 G! C# A. X: `
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; ^% c, o1 u2 @ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' W: k: A8 n1 { M' x
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; x t+ t% D) k" c8 G# B( k! N/ w largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 M) Y; K; ?* O
poor affordability levels.
8 e5 P& {2 v& `+ u8 T - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. Q/ j1 R v' H3 V. r; r9 l vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and! d' D' y0 v2 U! S
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- x! e& f" ?" l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 P7 [! L/ u7 T8 N0 X: e# Y4 Q
minimize any downside risks.
) F0 A0 c) [+ x d' i - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 _3 a" r* v0 f4 @8 l, o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ w4 B$ I% ^" i U unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 u# m* I; u' }3 w 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 i5 O( u. u s/ Z8 z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 @4 ]2 K4 Z) D
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in. f' W. `/ Y. l
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
C( t* ]- r; d. C, ] R8 t far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- A( z$ p( z6 i+ I$ K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- \. s+ g8 s( d* c# ?. ^
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only! F1 `. z& t+ u0 F' d% R
modestly in recent years.. x! A6 ` b0 f& g4 z% \
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 |+ W9 s) c, ?, m6 S3 k4 G general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, j3 J; K' v0 h spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% z; j% r0 X2 J. _0 c; t& o# b# { price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability; r& g j$ n) t
following two years of deterioration.- g# Z- Y8 w. k3 w* e& d
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