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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 7 K% u1 z1 j. P- n" Z* _) N
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; \3 k& ]+ a" \) D; Amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
5 k' O( u# s: {& \! k4 e& l8 q9 tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 z8 b! ?. b0 R A! ?( l6 M3 _according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" c$ v! j: r6 p' v8 R "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; t4 j& f% ?, L& u; J
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 J6 N# a) Y% b7 P: Z1 I7 u3 [
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" ]. F4 u+ x0 u. _: w# R C- h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 L" f3 D4 c1 b
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 U0 w k U9 M' Z! T- m% o- p; a. w
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% N' j6 c4 b( n9 l" O5 jwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ H, t! @! {- z" O7 Z4 Z, U6 f
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; ^+ v3 N6 O$ @$ w7 S: C5 R1 o
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 {1 }8 X7 ^2 v6 b! M* v+ ^7 \3 s
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
5 X \) j; q! V' j+ D& {. phome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 i/ ?. @% \0 {& A: }* ?9 eAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 T" {- K. o2 o; B1 U6 H. e5 \0 F
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 p$ Q: ?5 d+ _7 a4 @/ n Z# Y- y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 O& O3 o! n0 Y2 b6 C( ~ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 q, p! e; N: V
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
: H7 g$ i: y; I& l' [7 I) e- Tthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: P+ M. b) B6 I6 Uhistorically depressed levels.
/ M' L) @$ S( P5 R Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: e& y# m8 o* z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ ?0 e3 h* n8 @/ D$ Y* ~ D
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
1 t* i4 X6 E8 c3 s4 I5 yhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ ^5 c0 S ^% g; i% ?" henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# @3 [# H! P% M* P2 R5 D/ J' t6 ymonths ahead," added Hogue.
8 Y& [5 z9 F( { C0 a6 b" R9 u RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 t! b7 M0 P; G! S! T
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary o7 A1 f |# N( C5 {' V$ d7 C! D
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% ?$ g' B4 d, w8 N! |/ O5 g The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
" z. E7 b& Y B/ }$ O( K4 ?! m s2 b- za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. }% p- E# r+ C% S. ] Ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 {' B. x* d& gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 |+ |, V7 m9 X# }
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* K* L$ A" r, ~6 n) t$ Y3 r
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; F5 L+ t! Y9 |2 p; Q4 r# ]$ C) @" @" x
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented R }9 e) A) v( m) g& f1 W0 {
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ v9 }1 F) f/ G/ w. y* icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
# m9 t- p2 b% E) P2 {' HFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 `4 m$ R: y# A
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ [8 C1 L4 i, l, m, M
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& H) g5 z9 A$ S( T
% O$ u8 Q- T6 Z9 x) C <<
2 E7 g. s! B3 P/ B Highlights from across Canada:
; H" y& N9 {% L7 c) @# Y& ~1 E: ?. n& W/ @# Z- [( f
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has- u; {! u) H- L% ~7 r" q
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: t T. X) T% i
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ @/ B7 M8 M( V! k; D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 b, q4 j* E4 k1 x* ~ since about the middle of 2007.
/ [0 H" Q/ @+ f9 E& B - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) ~7 |- D" ]6 h) e frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to* g7 c2 }* q2 ]4 P* q+ [5 { O5 O6 b
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still+ m" L4 P) a1 u1 Y( s: b* O" x: L0 F. I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 c- Z/ O: N; c" n0 N# g% H& J2 V
poor affordability levels.
4 m0 C/ n1 |/ q6 a/ H, L B* a - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 ^# q( ~+ M' X3 p% } vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and u' U0 K- c* J$ ]& @* C' h/ A
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 z g3 B+ m1 c1 Y: F3 a- H, L0 r# _- ^ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 h. ]; J6 w0 l# i9 W
minimize any downside risks.1 C" S4 d& W6 G! T- W
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 T/ n- b) @* Z- t* O. j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, p, ^+ ^+ n" ^8 S
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early \7 F/ H# h. d1 L
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% E! a5 B# A/ c9 s5 B7 D being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( c# }( d5 N" R4 l - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) Y" o8 \5 N- x0 R) C8 B1 e Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; S: e+ u7 g, t1 c$ g2 d far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ C# J3 M& c1 B. M! ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be4 E( a4 w+ h7 a) O; B* s2 p
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only2 v% ^" _4 }/ }; J" l2 I- f6 O' F* M
modestly in recent years.
- _4 \% K2 E% v/ a - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ c, k2 c( E, D2 U. R+ }( t general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: a) T3 R: J M9 v spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* S- w, ]: }5 k price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 N, s# U3 {: ]3 ? following two years of deterioration.
8 {3 {- t* [7 v! |/ d6 | >> |
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