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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% s& G: C1 ]. {0 _' Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
+ p: I. l0 K0 p) xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ X" s# Z/ a: t7 L0 C6 a$ O( q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 f1 E; H" x- ?5 X( p5 H: ]6 x
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( r/ X* \% s0 x! { "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") t1 j! P" q7 T# V# O. Y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 b, f6 \0 z, r3 e, s5 b0 {
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! L" @" b, p+ o9 a' nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 ?, t. i. F t' V2 a& F( Z' ^% K
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
\2 e; u! h! a# Vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 i* x0 ~; |5 d. ~, J" V" qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* e" I M) G8 {$ t, }# ]) ]5 Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
x: y; s$ z5 U* k0 k+ e The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 H: ]2 [5 M0 A, }9 M! I
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. n) b- A' Y9 Y
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 {. l M3 [* |; _) A; Q7 C2 u6 G
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& |" x4 F/ `" N2 c
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' m/ P/ b, C& G/ Q e8 X
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 _% M4 H) L: N( e According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 j2 i6 @. W7 v9 d; c/ Smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in: j# s M6 f8 { D1 Y. v
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at- \" l1 s% }( H( [! N" L
historically depressed levels.7 c9 j' m. U( X+ u# o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost6 w {" l& ^& R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House- C7 F; L, X6 ?9 w. h; b. d
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! r) S& d; N0 f. D
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* \; {. E8 A5 Q- H5 S5 Xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* Z3 H! ]9 I" _% v; W# w! _- Z2 Fmonths ahead," added Hogue.# `4 g d( _( o" _+ a
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
6 s2 w3 r2 U* t0 h1 bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* P. E& V3 |8 o. ~42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent., @1 F. Y, l/ Y& b4 _/ h7 F2 S( [
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) P8 [9 r( H- W, oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- g3 A8 M9 F% t5 J
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; |9 l+ j. ^% r) z6 m: Atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ F# N3 t5 V# E+ [5 b, g
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
9 h1 A1 S# c# nbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) k5 A3 L) d6 i! r( z- @! r" `benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ y" o4 C$ k+ f, q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 ]% R! s$ C" P- ~% t
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: B6 _, Y( `0 l0 r0 Z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# K) L0 P) W. z# @0 g4 r
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 Z a6 V# v( C' e/ S
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ b# E+ P. p) `, r: E
7 a! S" g {& Y& J5 p2 F
<<7 W! K4 V) w V5 I7 p0 }
Highlights from across Canada:
) A( q1 k4 G% V5 Z1 T0 ?& g. l$ K2 r7 h) t& P1 ^
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) B$ k1 }$ F& R- h$ N" i
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing r7 L* e0 F- x
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound P$ c0 r- @0 K0 [: Y E" w& W% K
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 @7 t% h# W: F9 S* A" }0 x3 r6 C since about the middle of 2007.
7 x# ^1 }; z1 ` - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! S' u. x2 j$ G" `, h
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 y) D- L. q$ I* z4 P
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ m7 J0 G0 V; |% |- K- W+ R) V largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely/ @8 \' g' X/ q% @& p
poor affordability levels.
0 q/ U& q) j2 g5 a# N - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' w3 O8 W* n' Z2 l1 L
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* d3 R# g- q% E; j+ ? prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- Y; x. w* q" G/ G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# E- x# F% Y0 J: m minimize any downside risks.
/ I& D- d9 {: F8 [4 Y" J Q - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
% N4 ?% |; h3 ?4 I& [ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
- X3 o/ @2 ~* _ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' C7 o6 j9 b' _ H$ ^ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
Z+ b: F, g% Y: a: \ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 o' n+ F# _( Y/ K0 J( Y - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" N% K2 c: C1 o! x6 N5 N) E" @' T
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' [8 l2 z. Z: ~' f. A1 h4 K
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- B- t) }- N1 F- {0 z/ b; J, T5 ~1 O
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 Z7 {( V p }/ N5 z) e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only" N& E6 \7 q/ ^/ R
modestly in recent years.8 d! f) d* S, W5 G) f/ _) H3 U
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the2 J% ` Q; Y; h( Y3 M- j
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% n5 |) A! o3 E0 W6 M spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! I" L% b# l4 Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability8 s5 A2 L V1 Z: |: A
following two years of deterioration.
2 x4 p9 }, x8 v$ o+ j >> |
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