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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ' Z2 q% N* \% K/ n3 v
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the! A s* a8 `5 J& E
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- v o% A9 T9 _, u$ I
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" ]) @0 I I$ |6 f6 p( k0 O* Kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 t: l9 \* @; [9 f "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 C' d' u* M. M/ Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. U9 F0 ~- H+ R' m! Rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, f# A3 | W1 C9 lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.", `( Q. G S. `8 @' ~. v
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, |) G1 f+ z# H7 p
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% H c" f# G' O/ l1 ]which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' @4 D) c5 o; N* ysustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% d, P1 b8 e* L# K' _ y% R
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 V/ P2 P0 | _; K% e) T, j
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! z: R# R4 b: `, V" T2 l1 R; g) g$ lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& H. V5 o: |$ ]) N/ G3 p
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
" _$ B1 v: F/ R$ L4 V6 P [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ B V h0 {& |; T
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ R3 d) b9 v# t According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; d$ {; ~* c% z/ l& f
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 a- B7 D4 }. r, I8 ]8 `
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 q% H3 [/ y& B( [8 y1 B0 R% A! `historically depressed levels.
9 T# R% ]! M- V1 C c2 C$ {6 \ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 {4 z1 p2 W! N) R
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 U% i1 l$ V# i8 j8 d- u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- O9 A! T3 G9 [2 {& H- Zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This3 m$ |: K% a- s& m6 t
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the) j0 e1 \8 G, I' B
months ahead," added Hogue.+ ? c {4 {: o6 X& `: B
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 }/ o9 n3 ~' K
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) O, `# H: Y# v( Y5 O
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ `, j' ~" M) Z3 N/ r The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for9 ?% b1 V" z( W3 L; `' y+ ]7 ?
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 g; } F) a5 `4 m$ w
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: m1 L7 L, {8 N% ?% Q2 ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 Z6 }7 X5 w9 S! a% b; d6 h The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! _ z, m" Z4 K F* A
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
" Y$ A* O0 v- h( @: M) C, \) U+ @benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 P. K5 P# E. F1 o. u" l
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 X8 ]2 i2 K3 y. y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ [! K3 J9 o4 ^: GFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' k& ?$ Y+ o3 Y1 l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 j2 r7 j; A1 f3 o. q- p* {per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 Z: h4 Z4 o" D; I
0 }0 a+ P5 s" H$ O" ?4 e h <<; }1 s4 u5 Y2 F2 T( m+ f1 k
Highlights from across Canada:
1 M) W, k+ ~6 p( z' O' }! _! H8 @; Z" R4 l$ T% K3 K
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ I( M/ P: ~* e4 h: A0 t3 ]
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; X$ o0 ^ P: r; w8 ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- C% s9 \' V+ D9 a# n/ ~ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
, k& W% R4 d* v' ?/ I( D- L5 \ since about the middle of 2007.
/ M9 C6 f/ u' g$ C' L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; u' K' E& ~8 t, ?( K' a! i frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; Y% U' B# v6 ^( | decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 H! o9 z7 l1 E' q }/ C; B: P3 G. b largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 f3 ~) _% l' A$ E' U5 u8 y
poor affordability levels.
6 J$ E9 ~. d# i }: W - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ U1 \) [" Y& u. K T6 H vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 R6 G* m1 T+ Y5 s Z6 t" _ i prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% A# `6 l( @( Y' y+ G8 w Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: H! o; \1 A Z minimize any downside risks.* @2 O. h! y* }& |! b
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ j: s, b/ ]5 D- P2 Y& g
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ M H/ I# h: q, a2 b; S2 w. v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: q( O/ E8 D' G: H/ P6 n. O$ ~
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 f& r8 ~- b4 S! R% o
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 l7 [& W& b" b( @
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in( h- c& w4 O& U. ]) v% \
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 G- d% @- L$ c7 _ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up O- U5 I8 I# S6 ]% J( F8 P. E( P
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
& i# R; `/ { C3 G' j5 `1 c ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 _$ x( }9 ]: E: R# _* @; |
modestly in recent years.& Q4 l# Q5 f% |+ u( \) V y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! C7 Z0 [ V2 c5 b ~8 _3 E& m general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
8 O7 Q$ E9 T- W& l- G- o' `. `- g spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 U" ?8 T: s B$ o `* ?+ l3 @
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! M; H, j8 n R following two years of deterioration.5 P/ B4 f0 C+ X7 `: M5 a; ^. y
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