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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 ~, X% P, | h" m r
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the& Z9 _, R. w) O; K/ N
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ K: v2 Q& O- k( N- k
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 L- l1 m% i/ f$ n& Faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& p+ o1 V5 u3 ^6 m
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% U% |4 r# V9 g4 Csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# j' y, X f. n, J Eimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 B/ u# d* l0 K4 L& V
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."* D) h* p. ~# ~% j# z5 w R
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ A! ]& E6 P: V l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% i$ G4 G$ A$ _) n% \/ Q; q$ U- Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( B8 W. T$ h4 m, |! r
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 j) J7 {4 |; A7 J" \) P- y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 A9 |0 X6 I9 s! G) w2 n: s
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- R' h' S- r% S6 B% Mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( G* F5 H7 F e3 P9 l; Z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! p) F6 e U3 pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 B. y# y6 [' G [' Z1 X$ n: Nthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ v; P1 ]6 N4 d3 L- y6 C
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 J( }1 E$ P/ L. v" @! pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! Y2 H, C- ^5 \the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 G; b* ^2 k( D. g9 A$ r: B
historically depressed levels.
9 R2 k% y" R9 F) L/ V9 e1 W Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ K& ?/ V0 [9 \
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, O- Y% z0 q, a% w& U
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. _& @; i6 j9 whands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 w6 K- b. g0 s8 F9 O/ \$ Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: U/ W4 a: A; F7 V5 x; E
months ahead," added Hogue.! G0 F+ t" W1 G
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ h8 c2 x% a& e! H/ }) i0 Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ G! v+ ]: A: E8 a, o% {2 p42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
a* M4 p# a0 q+ ~) q' x# x The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% B3 _1 T- V! l( R6 [a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
- a* d* I; F, }. i; Kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 X( C& z% D# w. Ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 e9 ~, O" Y8 [4 E( e8 q The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is& o& I) E" p. o% B. S, G: R8 T
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: P) w- y4 ~& r _
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
; x1 {( [3 R: L2 E( h' ^. d @/ xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ ~2 m1 ~- [ w) v: R
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 b; L( B( w. |) v4 A7 _/ eFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" E$ Q$ z! T( N- `. x, f0 Gcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" _5 P+ {, Y" S9 j' n: u3 o6 w+ yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
. N8 Y$ _2 |8 m5 ~' D. e
/ b+ K t" e. P# @9 a% ] <<& E w3 h, i! s5 g @
Highlights from across Canada:
4 r& Q4 d( u& ~8 }- s9 W1 c% M
T! k& m1 g* x0 V, O# x - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" x# d5 k& f: ]/ E0 C' O intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, N! f0 P+ Y7 Q$ q% A- I& G% K
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound3 ^0 K" W/ ]7 C- j6 N
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track) a7 {2 E5 `6 q+ ?) Z. `/ L, e9 J
since about the middle of 2007.
: v7 ]) K+ c, C. ?% i! j1 G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 R# y& E+ o9 L! o; N+ B
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 g3 I5 {0 e2 Z( E/ s decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 `: R6 g7 f v' ^
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 { G$ s. a7 y$ F
poor affordability levels.
8 g7 L4 l1 C! \% O2 Y - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 X! V. V* J5 n, M& F vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 y1 P/ X' M% Z7 Z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 `* `. ~- J- m7 T# Z0 h6 _- Q& u Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# h" b" w- P# N# J
minimize any downside risks.
1 Q- O5 ~3 M' O! |' H - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 }! {% I/ N y; W" ` conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is V' D1 |6 ?2 W$ U
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 |" j+ k |; o' n: ~, S$ \; E; h
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. o5 W& q) ?4 ^, G* a/ u
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 r9 r Y2 Z) r( I1 {7 z/ z% r - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 R3 l8 L( }3 g) y2 ]) g* f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* f7 Q7 V% K2 A" g% \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 y+ K' e* {: f reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ v+ V& J# X& U) a ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( k7 a. t7 u" T% {. f! r modestly in recent years.8 g* b0 {& z4 O/ ]
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ i) r/ G. D; d. u2 r+ l general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ a3 c, ]) r0 m6 K7 m6 g8 i4 N spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( k% V. V: Y" `" A2 _ {
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 H% d. `- z$ T following two years of deterioration." S" O8 V# h; F W% E4 I! F
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