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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, P2 P1 G% I; a, o5 e TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* Q) e$ _+ B. H( dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
7 b- | E' U. J$ U: f# N. Bgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,' y0 _$ J, P4 E3 ?% i) u
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.! I! o$ Q0 o* }0 r% N H9 g
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- G' H$ ?$ i1 B* m+ v2 h& `said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is s4 p6 Y j5 Y/ ^5 D
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. V5 J0 e. }6 @6 C( ]: tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ o& Z$ i! a: V RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 h9 F4 N0 J5 E5 A& T; _worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( K) R6 n, }3 N) p) d, e6 w9 A7 |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! j( u% t9 V9 _' T! gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.- O3 I) D; R4 C, o; v# m8 e! n; w
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% H0 R; Y, ?, M, r- O Lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- _! e7 I0 U5 y! ?home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
s# j: a6 I, o0 L ]" e0 mAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 E) b3 `$ T/ M* S9 [" h: F" ], k' @& cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# I. O8 V5 [& K! [5 S$ W/ O
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. Y+ x* P. C( y5 V/ h# N9 v7 b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% V% S% I9 j) O# v8 fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% s1 L3 C; F8 C$ w/ p* athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at; o' x- l4 ?1 I/ }, }
historically depressed levels.% _4 U+ O) a! ?! t, x- y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost/ p O/ P+ H/ A. I3 @$ [
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 h( w# x' K, R/ Y& |, jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the. l, E0 t" p, _7 d1 D; y, ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" l H! J. n# g! Y. v, r
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: T& Z) ?* ~6 W) ~, R. I4 Amonths ahead," added Hogue.
9 j9 v% R( V- w* o: i0 }% T9 l RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' W1 }" }! I* @cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) k1 ~1 v2 Q* m. ?4 {
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 H. P+ R% O. }2 i4 i: w/ {, g5 G
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 M0 Y7 @6 Z; H' M* g5 Ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 ^; Q" ?. z1 h
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" t, I, F0 G1 V
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! ~* V, }8 z s5 h) ? The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is+ R! O0 h, w- i3 f. F
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ e: a% R1 ^3 z" x4 f: g, z- h wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 Z- P6 C& U1 `8 I* Rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 } J: _# X8 O' ~
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 m1 h; y) X% l# _' Z3 h/ \5 r1 KFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- _. c4 s. }) B) p Q% I5 B) mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& [6 d# P8 W( y- [/ k5 Fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.4 S* q$ U- v, g3 `0 _' C
8 q3 r8 D/ [& |" p" A7 ^ <<2 P5 P0 ]% v- g+ O# F" k+ \" s: U
Highlights from across Canada:! ]" ^% p/ S3 m) h9 p" {/ _7 ^
" C/ f; |: Q8 L6 _% ~5 d4 l - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
2 D$ X; z( p% B& t5 {) t5 ? intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
c5 S6 N9 z$ [! H5 t- _9 v home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; F0 `7 J% K7 L- T# L9 Y* l only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. o! U) {& F5 D0 j5 n* F
since about the middle of 2007." |$ ?+ c: {5 t6 r7 {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 y2 n9 Y, J# g8 e4 A8 }, l H( n frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
, k. P. c* Q8 l7 ~ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still+ @' \% m) W6 {/ n3 l! U
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' a( G) F% _* _! i* a' _ poor affordability levels./ ]/ I! o% e" M2 l" p+ \
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) R1 G/ C2 A9 R
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ v# d3 c0 M- _3 j* ~; V: _8 P! C5 `" O
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 v1 G B. A; O' e1 S+ H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 J2 o. x9 N# H6 [7 S+ [' V6 u minimize any downside risks.0 f. z j$ S: Z) x% Z/ B
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 y5 x& q3 ~, d3 @% l) P+ K6 z4 g conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
9 R; {( `; c$ i% j) s unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% U' S1 V! }( f z% @) F
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly- ]4 L" {3 g7 o* B; P( Q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( X3 O. M" k0 R# ~6 u - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* a& h& `. j+ I- F& D
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" D: u. D# B; L) F far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, g0 l8 y3 C [ v9 H reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ a+ q3 n9 S# S* m% ^
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 |+ h+ Q# g! K/ ?* b1 i/ w
modestly in recent years.9 \7 F# U0 u+ M! Q, \/ P E/ q$ o6 ~
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 E0 K* i) X6 h: G" ~
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 |* X7 l. ]$ P" j$ w0 P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 J3 s& O8 |: ~# m% q/ h& D price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
?& k9 R5 ], P* u' R: ? following two years of deterioration.
5 w6 {! q! G& `% s >> |
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