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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- r) `# s: L" v& V" z; `( g TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 M% U7 G% A" s0 tmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- y `4 M7 A% `, x9 ?" u3 L
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ ]! b+ @2 v0 r Y' a, h" k( eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 R& {, J+ C! n% A3 b, F1 E
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 f3 ^: {0 ^1 l `9 E: N2 @said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
: F$ ^" w" x& pimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; _" m: Y/ r% N0 v/ C/ o. |measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ o' [- l* P7 K' z% p RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( u9 _. t$ x7 j. Q" b+ jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ h3 { I( z( G. u. J3 awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( i( {% d& Q; x3 \/ A2 C9 l
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 d( }+ e: q( c# }- H/ M2 X" G
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' D& t' c# F$ T3 h. V/ c
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 {6 l4 R1 _; y9 vhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& w4 f7 i+ C ]" z# m
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 y5 l, D! Z* A. p
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and: o1 q/ Y6 n' m$ q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- q5 E6 p) P1 ^ _: f4 E
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 H) A' D$ n! \2 Y9 C
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 \, i; L, g# T+ hthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 z* F# h8 W) a$ O( B) X ^
historically depressed levels.
6 @2 a* @; `, w; h3 t2 u Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
* ? s! \/ L; y wof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 I# {5 X2 _8 |, pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
( l# I9 m( h" _! \! h. u/ S4 y2 whands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 Z; G- Q6 e( l4 `: Z6 x( }6 E* genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 {8 P, j7 ]9 u0 |+ K, _ H8 Q! K4 ~; x
months ahead," added Hogue.
$ [/ n. V5 n" K& z2 j/ y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; t* r! Q! ^" ~2 t) j+ @. Vcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 O, i& g8 F; ?8 i9 r. H42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' G. [# x7 a ]
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
# J% \4 o" I; l1 z) T2 j0 q/ N0 m: ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these: r' h4 F, _2 P, N2 K
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; k: y. U+ D; etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account." G6 o+ e* [1 Y+ j d8 K
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 s" D, s; j# A: N2 N5 l# C* o
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ o# W( D2 d8 A# U6 v) z# V* dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 O! S4 G' \- v
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard q3 T) @7 \* y) Q8 [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
8 o) V* W% O5 W& dFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
; W& A8 h, [; a5 @' {/ M* g5 _$ hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" F' H) }! I- ~ O0 w$ P1 B, kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income. u# y3 G! i% H( L4 P$ @ a* t
) {( N# g- E/ A: ] <<
) a% M" Y9 z6 C* G$ o Highlights from across Canada:
" A0 j J$ A( J0 d% {6 e7 T& n$ O. N( G, i# Z' `, U0 ~
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* _! \5 o3 [8 b( ^
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: D; M$ j; i5 L! B2 X# G
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
$ C% O% u0 K7 m/ m1 d2 p U only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 q I3 L- U. ^& M5 h) Y. e since about the middle of 2007. v, [# i2 `% s5 R
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, f$ }6 t8 ?% ^. @
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 Z# S: s) g+ Y1 W# W1 F decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
0 c1 w) e r% \* v largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( l3 F9 i+ d1 H
poor affordability levels.4 e& \( x: I% ^9 n" R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 s6 e$ ~1 d- z, N& f vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 K+ M. b7 D6 y) } prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 ?5 x$ k- }$ }3 ]3 ^) F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. H9 F& B: x# h. ?" X7 q
minimize any downside risks.
& f$ T7 ~7 U3 w/ i9 B/ c - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 G$ y& w' A, e7 a2 ~
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) i3 X7 B3 V( u( ]
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ L2 K4 `, ?* q# r+ p 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly4 }; Q+ `; Q# g' S
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.( h+ ~ Z3 U1 { z2 u
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, v1 Z# X( p7 Z" `" ~5 ^ X
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ Y# A. S( o0 @6 Y, K+ n
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ ?* _0 {' W3 ] reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; I& D' S% u) r5 b/ `& l ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only& B6 l4 Z0 l: C
modestly in recent years.
* s; C( y+ G( M$ t- ?% r - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 W7 c6 h; N. Q4 g general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) ~) L; p. t# k! b& v spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- }/ E& u/ G; n( l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 f# j9 _% F I9 A; \
following two years of deterioration.
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