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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ l7 u& o; a6 [ g TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 |( B& l( N$ _7 bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& V. g6 Y6 R6 [7 K4 K
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. O; c- D5 [ w/ kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
4 Q6 i' N7 A! o2 p6 x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"& o" O; `4 Y# s. L4 k
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 U; D x! U7 S5 c7 _7 `2 [
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. U" Y9 q3 Y! m0 n1 o/ T+ Zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 f7 m# c+ o; J. p( o$ W( N RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( }. i) I5 ~$ o3 o
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing," D9 @' G9 V# V* [. l4 t4 H
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 j) s E! w. a$ N
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 C; @, x0 O& c" p; N/ T The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
' q% ]5 ^' Z* i& ?+ H# Lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 _; u& Y% T* R$ A8 W3 J% U
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 l- N; _- H6 `3 {4 zAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: X! {3 u) y: {5 v; v/ g, e
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! h# ]& S& m+ o; kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 ?/ h, C+ J5 I According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 d) n' r) m4 s
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( a+ E7 a, D, v! p2 ^9 W
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 p4 e- a8 C$ ^' Ahistorically depressed levels." n6 S" p- c) @4 w+ W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ q- y7 C) l" F" b e
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; W/ b* m1 m% W3 Y5 G, fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the) T, M* d$ ~& G* Z) Z7 P* |
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! v: Q- m' G$ p G3 C9 D
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 z/ G" u' R6 H( B, e. ^5 o
months ahead," added Hogue.5 C6 k4 T" S, p! ~4 W/ e
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest6 \) ?, {% W% ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( R6 f) J5 j6 P, u
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
0 U/ d- c# E3 E* Z, S, u% C The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 E+ |& t! o4 |% u, ^6 W: @% a
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, S$ H2 v9 r7 h+ b7 M ]3 {cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 B) a) e" x* J3 \: a
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.# Q. }: k, @' _* l1 Z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 u( w* r: S! I% ?6 I& q+ A" s* i
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 I! E" W; x& m& P
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: t0 W3 n" m$ \; }8 d
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' Q. a5 b7 x2 W: Acondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 P; n8 m% n) D4 p+ B% N5 uFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* i! r" y9 W! g( l9 Q( C: `
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& `( [; E6 v# z4 F3 N+ Hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ G6 o# }3 u5 o0 R5 {$ Q$ ~' u. v
# U; `3 E' L# T. v+ q- N% x& d6 f( s <<
$ i1 _: I) K% M' e# l" q( V Highlights from across Canada:% \6 k7 t: j' }1 g6 c: Y
4 A3 ~% Q/ ]3 v/ x
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 ?) p5 _$ {6 t! B' j! g% e
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing% U1 Q6 W& r0 A) a% M' i6 b' g/ ?7 p
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound, ]) o& z6 L4 s* P$ Z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) b' j o7 \6 X$ |& f+ l* }- X since about the middle of 2007.
$ ?8 V0 D3 ?' ]" _4 M; D) t - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
/ N& G) Z2 I6 |3 L( `- h frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
9 T( V0 [. {0 H: _ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
+ z3 L: _/ Z# X6 S$ ~# w b" R9 l largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( m' L: }: B# K# R# Z+ L poor affordability levels." U0 r B" Y2 ~* i x3 f
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; q# \% K# l5 }+ I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
' X) ?% T; \) v prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- \( v6 P! z" o' G4 K& M2 }
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 k' P! C8 v7 E( _% q. K minimize any downside risks.% Y. W8 S% R& L F9 B' y! T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, W# p% I6 {: C9 p5 ?% a) Z/ ~+ v5 A4 h
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 K/ _& C" P: a: @/ |
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) S8 K! m5 f* d% [- z; @ q3 j
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 x- M( D) ?/ S* r7 i" G* k2 Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
9 a4 ]3 e! c! r - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 J' _4 u% @6 X' k$ S/ W- O: G
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 {( F* J* v8 x8 r
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% B- v9 e% p0 X" D
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be/ N8 P" y! x( N" T, V8 C% P" f4 K
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% j0 [9 B+ J+ n modestly in recent years.' C# r$ Y7 T; E0 }+ M: G: i
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 Z9 ]; I( D( d; ]
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- O: O& `, T2 B- U E! k
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
# B" o4 l4 N. I# i# h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 H) N7 A+ j5 U0 \' s7 f% Y
following two years of deterioration.7 D! ?/ M# {5 \# x" X
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