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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% D6 v' V! p7 { TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 [6 h6 t( v( U" wmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' a1 K/ O4 n j& B. rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) ^/ F- L6 g8 P) k2 Saccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. V5 C) _' `5 ?
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" c3 U/ o7 |6 s6 l2 _said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
: @. M) J( [ kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% n, n- a. E) _1 Pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 u0 P# F/ C" b" d3 A RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 P" H* p% z- g3 q% `worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; k; K6 q0 t4 d+ ]2 Q- C" E; ^3 \: Pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) B2 C, V: s j9 B+ N
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% Z' p, u7 c2 k8 g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 K3 V+ z, ]$ l
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- ]2 y3 i. j7 O. V3 d% u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
8 t, g; h1 l9 E4 x7 E BAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 i" p! D- j# [( g( \) }/ t, Ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 l& N5 w0 v, Z; b8 y) a1 {" p' s4 p
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
5 `. ~6 w- ?! m" C( Y( k; j3 u According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
* Z3 D1 L5 @( {; V2 }9 ]; Emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( }) ?' u1 b( G& b
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 i7 J& p0 X+ Z1 f
historically depressed levels.% g1 h- h' ~) C: X/ ~7 b7 e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost2 ^2 n& I4 {. J- e( G1 H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 m, N' w: o. b t# s( v/ Gprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, e* c' r1 Q- ?* _) O2 fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" v8 Z" \4 @5 F1 n
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& K0 Q' q l0 _% v6 j7 Wmonths ahead," added Hogue.! g1 `: I4 R. y3 ^5 M5 Q m
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% Z5 a/ H; o2 ~( H O# N# W
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 o5 s: x9 x; C% b7 H% t42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; Y) @0 E/ }& ]+ }2 I* k
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for& Z+ b6 e X! h& O: W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: @. S8 u7 H0 t. E/ e6 U9 Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 B% L. k' r& v5 G) j; y7 @2 p
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" [$ q0 |7 }0 u$ q5 ^+ p- X" H5 ] The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 ~' G+ G7 f, k) E5 M+ i: d( Lbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ U7 O0 E9 R/ l; z% V3 S. Gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
, O8 I$ @% Y% Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 ^! w4 h# q8 z, s9 L( wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." p" E" S: G& {- }3 F
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 P! Y+ ~! w" @8 {costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, P. H* h! v% Kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.* n8 H" I( E3 p' J- t, I# S
1 R/ B) S0 ] ?
<<
" j2 R8 W9 ^7 G7 q1 s8 \, N Highlights from across Canada:
( I: O/ E$ q1 H5 x& T/ x# u% `5 A; l$ W6 e- ~! {, c
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has y, F& K5 k3 S; c+ f
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing# ?' o$ C! K6 R3 y' O c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% y* T) |! m# x only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) a3 \+ d6 s9 ~( i7 e7 o7 J since about the middle of 2007.
* G8 c; A, _/ x - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# v* R8 w y; ^- J& Q' p frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 V$ j* Z+ L/ M W, l decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
# S0 v; Q2 x4 b! q, {- E largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely8 C( X' `& D& ]" {+ E' C0 ?
poor affordability levels.
0 l/ a, @. N6 L N - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% t4 D9 ^8 g* Z1 `; q* | vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) B# G" h5 i, Q: s! {! Y( I: R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ o0 H! _; Z. m& g I1 g9 W% q5 s Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to Y: ^( b7 }* m
minimize any downside risks.
/ y9 w! j: @" f: @4 _1 \ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* v/ [2 X. Y+ S1 k1 q5 [6 @8 {8 a2 _ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, v" u$ \1 i* y, F" A$ a4 S3 u; D
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 P3 y# `5 ~7 C
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 C% R" @+ [+ T$ s/ ? being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) S( f' N) o+ O v. h- V7 {
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 _& i$ Z. k; H6 H6 s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# [0 d" M) n- M! [ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 w9 ^$ H" @# k7 o0 a+ u( y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. p3 d* Z! x1 T0 t0 [ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) Q4 F1 f7 }+ d0 y# E& r8 { modestly in recent years." @1 b' c! ]! \6 v& R
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) Q* B( i5 b9 k6 o" d' `
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( \* ~) }: C q3 b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 u, w9 O* l8 Q, R! I' s; H. F
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& D9 W/ C. K% X, l: p/ F following two years of deterioration.( M' q4 I2 l' X3 s
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