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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
. I5 ~2 B1 r7 B# w4 F* M7 {) B TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 t: h' {5 d$ C/ k4 R7 g2 T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" U A3 x$ k% s$ W/ E* Ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) \7 O3 Y' {; r- V. jaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; p, I( [5 w3 a6 j7 o5 ~3 r6 L X
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
, ^7 |/ i9 h' v0 Qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 {% c" g( B0 j% \* yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
) H2 a6 r) o/ Pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") r$ x7 x! U+ i$ t; F! Q) @5 U
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ n2 U5 ~1 Q$ k& r R, D. \
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" X# l; n D/ A) x8 Vwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 |$ }/ u/ q( \. W% Z. {* asustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' w% R# a2 G$ J4 H9 F0 d# {, a6 s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the S4 a) ?8 e( D. }+ v9 d
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 t) J# f1 R& Q- u9 G7 g0 ~
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
( o) O8 H1 Y! ^; ~6 i5 ]9 zAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 f: _5 F2 ~4 z! } z# ^standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
' c) r4 _% x8 cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 E, T4 I! L1 j T% D7 X; Y! T According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 I6 Q2 _) s! `$ k. Fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- L7 K" T8 S1 ^# C
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, F# i6 R2 J2 |* ?! W7 d; j
historically depressed levels.
9 P$ T* W- K/ O4 z: p3 u Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
E9 F3 V) E0 d8 e$ nof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. O* e2 `( U7 H2 b5 u& o
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, M# \! r$ ~. v# F- Rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- C- z: q. n; r( o& q" U5 l' V( l
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! I* Y- ?+ ~5 }& }months ahead," added Hogue.6 d* S& L3 q3 I- n' l3 t
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 N3 E# H3 x& \' ~ n0 ~cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ r( m- M8 Y) e) f- J. v
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 o! T1 v# G3 V, A+ ?' z
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 p+ }0 C- l7 `2 H" j3 q+ o: Ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 q: b& O6 s6 S& X3 h3 @" {( f( Ucities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 {- Z4 U, b' c# n3 q' N' t* {( }takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 c2 o2 B) W' i( A
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& ^# h) F; E6 tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* @' b; V! Z/ z$ ~0 _+ A9 |( wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; I! D8 r8 V6 X$ z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 F4 l) x( D$ w1 S
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 S, E# c8 H. M7 C8 I
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" ]+ \4 z } Z4 h6 G4 P( A
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 n" ^& x- t* E$ k3 }2 h- ~per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ R( j( o$ C+ Y- c1 Y( ^& A4 w
* z& f! K% k- w/ }+ l <<- \6 A# R4 j2 Y3 d0 |: Q. k- `+ Y
Highlights from across Canada:
) |' m# X/ O2 E2 ]
R2 Y# Z8 c+ T: J+ `. C9 s - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- E" S- T; w7 H- r; r intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
% x+ j2 h; n9 Y- K- } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" a: l2 h. [+ B; Q$ j& W only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; V. r h3 H2 I" v# b8 n# T) c since about the middle of 2007., l, v* z* g& {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! n, T! r4 t, @& w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 B3 O/ B; C+ e" Y; I% w
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, N$ _, P. Q# B largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely8 k0 g! k' F" ?3 A8 P
poor affordability levels.
: p, |/ O( D0 w$ h% Z - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" T) T1 u- T8 s3 V7 D2 o
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 e$ c: {/ K( [3 B- ]: O+ r9 U# E A
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ t6 x5 q* p- I& T! y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: M* v7 b) c1 f( v$ {8 E minimize any downside risks.
% R" N3 u4 H% U! }/ r! a% U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ X" [& j5 S6 e0 W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 R. M6 q5 |5 F9 R6 i7 }: i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 ?6 p+ g! [# J0 B& A6 b% E 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
+ W! u) m6 Q- O being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
" n; p. q) W( ]2 q2 m; B - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
$ B! W* e' w" ~# _" @ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ N; f4 z" o: X9 K& G
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 a% s3 u" P2 i* Q2 Y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 y8 H( _5 d5 [1 ~. {
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 j) c8 D' s: b- ?& E' ^ modestly in recent years., p9 L' h1 ^ d4 `+ C ~
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
5 d5 S9 a& m9 k+ v. y5 E7 k7 V! e general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" Y. X2 v! N! m/ Z- P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! F( I. ]2 m/ F6 C$ W+ h1 B; ^6 }
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 c) n A2 O! D4 g
following two years of deterioration. o& K6 V% i" i1 F& |$ p. X9 q
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