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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 o& f0 X) O. L! @% h3 b
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
1 ?/ `# a; L3 [* I% _/ cmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 Q, q* W' a- b2 b2 W
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( i( `- I, F4 p' N
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- k6 t- {* ?# H3 {/ A" T9 P4 q
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," O( q' O, k2 L' P* X# q2 f6 w; @" f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" O8 R4 h5 _$ D: z! V- K. e3 himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 ?+ I0 a! R) w' o( v) |9 j
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- |- Q; s: x$ v7 v% i5 y RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
~. g5 e: C* B) ] `3 H. lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% s; A; f" [) F, r: s& @
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
e8 s6 U* J: u; Z# Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. V# ~5 N; Y2 s9 f The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 R6 Y2 n$ j" z0 [# z7 Q+ k; mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, B$ \4 A) B Z7 ~# M! B$ b7 Ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ L( c J8 E. v) e$ H: Z5 }
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) ]- h/ G3 r. a% T( Y1 _
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
D) [7 d% R1 O/ wthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 v4 ]& ]+ {2 R N& e, \& z& v" U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets9 w6 t% r& D: u0 e: x; C
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' d9 ^! e! B: t0 k" I! V& k x
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ t/ Q" |: J5 O+ q' j8 K6 T
historically depressed levels.1 K' D; `: w. R1 P
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ c" B* k6 Q3 P m# {# M$ _- U
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 v1 l* F1 x) S9 h
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" x. S. {; ~+ H5 A; D
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This5 K! Z% r' _7 }9 Y. _# J* ]: x
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. S( P* b* z5 W. r' a/ | j
months ahead," added Hogue." E: D$ B- I8 N, s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
- S( e3 A; A9 I( s' ^5 {) }cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& o9 r- O0 N' d42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent., Q. C( c: J6 i4 J. |* q5 z2 q3 m: e
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for- m" [+ K* ]7 A9 j) p
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
) d0 W+ H( |/ I( I4 R: ]3 kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 d* B1 Z" K* c9 X7 e9 z
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. U* g; ]* ^ h The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 C* R8 |# B; L. Y6 fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 m7 B$ I) v+ B3 u& Sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% o* @ | r* c( y! i0 T& pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 Z( F8 J9 p% ~* a7 B0 t+ t8 Q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% j' {0 t& S! `# B& a# b6 f4 [! BFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- J$ U, q' p$ u2 \0 P5 Fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# D0 M; U2 q8 _- Q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& W8 N& E/ }! A9 T
1 a0 m5 t" G# o) P: P <<$ L1 ^( R5 q/ }6 m3 R0 b. N
Highlights from across Canada:
6 u+ }* }2 T# X3 C
7 Q* w. x; t# x1 }/ l! \ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ E2 ?/ d2 C! v. L6 W
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, w, t% Q' M8 a0 ]* g. B3 d
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& i q* @/ x9 ]) e# L
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: Y4 {2 P {- J3 k# Y
since about the middle of 2007.
8 ^2 P( @% \0 c1 ? - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 O! i: \" D/ D% X# I" g
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. ~4 E9 H, U8 ` x decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ q3 X) O2 t+ O/ J2 m3 \
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely; k0 s( a5 _( g4 G- p1 I' e) f+ @5 e
poor affordability levels.
+ _- _8 p6 M7 a; V _& { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ j2 _% w& H0 p0 r) m. m
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# P3 m/ k2 G% Z: L3 Y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. u$ w% j6 Y/ u0 L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; x( D: d- D: X8 n2 R minimize any downside risks.
% x% U! X! b/ T$ V - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 a8 Z8 D) r1 g/ }8 N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is! R; a/ j* i ^% m8 `: q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 u; R7 V( R) R9 C7 J" O' }9 y
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% U: f; I" P. v1 i" B8 p- | being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ L! p: K. @* X) d* ?
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 q3 ]3 ~2 L7 S& Q5 W; m# Q Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 ^8 j! C" O) C" F far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% J' |' a: |% Q% Y t3 N! D
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 w- X# P# P7 _2 a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 a: O; X% Z- N# f7 a, U7 S# `# j modestly in recent years.4 Q, _( I3 j% \& }$ v T6 a1 T, f; g
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 ]0 ~. s [/ t K s
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot. Z4 A: d- Y# d! i( v* a2 Y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
3 S) X5 L6 \5 }, t/ b7 K! m price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) ]- ^7 P! j# D+ F# J
following two years of deterioration.
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