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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; _- t9 \. g: n6 t4 P0 H TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 ?) T% }" w4 z9 C" l* [middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive' z0 B5 W* o0 n
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- }/ I- \1 j: p) B9 M% y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.4 t0 M8 R5 P) f7 Q8 `6 `% O
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 d7 e$ X' J, R; msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# _, z y" `) a: [( a+ T% v3 e: a9 q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. @ Y: T. y# L9 v
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 o# b, v! e9 k$ F1 E7 a& B( s
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 @1 y" l! W, T. e4 ^! m' Sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, u k; L9 L3 q' T, i# x3 Hwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, ~4 v8 ?9 n7 w6 a9 {, qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
' J9 d5 y( o+ i8 r/ S5 t3 { The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: P4 M0 O7 b6 ~- Y. R: ^5 j
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 i3 `7 u; B, Whome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ n. ?' B6 @& L7 n- i4 M; V9 A% s0 {Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 C" v& C& F' O
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 m* j! A5 H$ P6 H3 m* D+ F
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; o4 c9 U6 i, o4 C& X# r
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 s; i9 n: V! ~9 m, i( v3 L
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 `' Q% I: q& J+ x. T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at: E+ |1 f1 v' X% O
historically depressed levels.% |& S9 B/ q4 |: [; j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& B' G8 ~* Z1 b0 C) H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ G5 e9 ^) C* ? x9 @: qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
L' e4 V! O7 _) g% Dhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 V( j; C2 m& b1 P2 }# F5 K( i2 \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, O0 A" Z, N- E4 B6 z! g, cmonths ahead," added Hogue.. j1 W( H9 s" X3 i
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
\! |% ~& u2 ?+ K' [cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary; Z4 t- l1 B! B# z9 X( V, r* V3 ]
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." C' V- u$ Z! Z7 L: `" ^
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% t0 `/ F. D6 h8 K8 n! g
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these. N/ q7 G3 g3 P8 o/ {, d) r$ ]" u
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
5 a/ a$ F( U! l' B1 xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., O* G7 X8 I+ K5 w# |3 R) f
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 k+ R* T' [7 D" Y7 {
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
% q1 E6 v2 Q, L' Hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
4 v. I0 w, T( S$ b u. _6 nincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 Z* l \. J9 ]) q, icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 o# Y1 `* Y* z/ N" L2 B
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
% j) F" b9 c' ~0 A: ? zcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 N$ ?2 B) F9 {' f% aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 I$ v g; t9 Z( x1 Q7 \" u# I0 v/ v+ H4 O+ N7 }# K4 V
<<# \4 u3 P9 U8 v
Highlights from across Canada:7 Z8 |+ T! c- s6 Y* [2 R% Y
^" Q2 D& t T - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' M; x& g8 L. h) X8 K8 u
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 v1 T6 v* f: e9 p+ n1 e2 Y, a9 D6 ]( Q
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- \: Q! h5 i% p* c' k* ^$ R only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( Q8 g/ g% A9 [9 R since about the middle of 2007.: j, s: ?! {2 ?# s- r F; p
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 p) B" J0 x n( H4 u frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 B( ]# P* p' k* q. C) r1 E& A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* V$ J- A3 M$ f largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* o/ W `* _4 N' R poor affordability levels.
. L4 ? ?" e# R a0 ?& ? - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; m6 g# O/ w& w, z- p: P0 H
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
, |4 M; X. d3 a1 B0 K prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.1 F/ j8 C! u, b. H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; b8 D9 }$ y8 G) t minimize any downside risks.
- E: B$ _# A/ k+ H5 o - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ k% l3 s h: m9 H7 e5 B
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ o) ]$ ^0 j7 N, R5 o
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early! w2 h% ~5 y! N$ ?+ R a+ z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) j8 W0 \% G4 R2 B# q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 ?5 c. F: k2 h- @* ]0 ]; W, p7 R
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
0 m3 ^, |0 y$ t Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 f6 S! }, U5 I
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, f2 y: U' ~" W$ C) N- S$ w: J9 @
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 ^$ G3 I* }& u7 A* ?
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 V- c/ `0 r* D: U8 u
modestly in recent years.
4 K; m1 B! N8 t9 s - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ I+ q( m& Q( r- [# V3 W7 R* J7 t
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' [9 c+ @# T9 U7 V1 b4 h
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
{( a8 D+ D7 l1 S7 F+ f price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. x4 s0 Y t: ]7 `9 T$ y following two years of deterioration.
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