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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: e7 {6 R" O- H/ Q% ? TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 V( J) [! p4 hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ ]0 B# M0 B$ ?3 X8 N- i9 o( R/ _" W) Ogains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,; m9 p0 {, J1 O! N5 f- Q, @: F5 a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, Z- Q# ]( ~, n* m2 r# Q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 D9 j c- B$ @ O$ M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 T, {/ U$ Q; E/ \. \# Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. x' v- V* |$ Lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* g, w& b ?& J1 V3 L- V RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 T: w# A3 u) ^ Y- Iworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 I: T; ~: w1 @ n$ U3 F
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& S% T1 A, H% C# zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 _8 E/ T; q2 a. `* P6 e: M/ {7 O The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& T' S& ~1 S9 O5 n- \
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- d8 A( K% Z5 m- M5 |" r+ D4 V8 i
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* _( z% N1 x7 y- Y- g2 P, rAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, J! ?1 G: H" K# Y1 n
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; Y p: n' D3 d4 ^2 M1 k
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. K8 T& i5 j/ D, U) @ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 V8 J6 Q% T! B& h9 Mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% [' L' B" n1 c$ v4 Q* s9 Q1 b
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 a7 B8 q+ d& shistorically depressed levels.) l4 C4 ^! w7 x2 T6 r* e/ b
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& m5 G* \, @2 _: N7 H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 E+ ?$ U ~' t4 Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& Y# B* A2 ?- ghands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
s# R; J7 q. C$ x2 _enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the Z" Q/ H8 N5 e) h
months ahead," added Hogue.
' y! B) b5 R: f RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 j3 y N! ~* a! X& Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 w) g; p |, t6 u6 s. J42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
8 B( M4 k: P# w7 F7 @- L8 {) H The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( v$ e+ X$ ^! r& d8 u
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ j( C& f {+ m0 E, k- R9 _* n0 Rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only R% R% j( z# r4 F6 n0 N
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.8 B% g& h5 V8 o# H7 D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 m% G( P' \$ a2 q( r* f) tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 w3 A# X6 ^& [" u4 V0 hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* B+ E M" H, n/ d& i* m" Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
- J- G \8 x, g8 T" X4 e& Y9 Bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 W" @ ~3 D5 r; j; oFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- ~$ F$ A4 m- V' z4 J9 C3 r" Ncosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- S4 y: J/ Q: w5 C, ?4 V. t* L
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
7 ~: q9 h7 X7 F1 N
; B+ m7 ~$ l8 m2 z- @ <<2 s* J6 e S+ i0 ^& |
Highlights from across Canada:3 V2 z. s1 x% H2 b' f
# U) ?* F% o6 a) r$ F$ d7 F6 j0 q
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 w1 }# S# P+ W& g" J4 J
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) I. x6 q$ ^! i! q0 h" Q home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 n; L4 P' z8 I9 Q9 Z0 `$ I only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
' s# X0 o) U' ` a since about the middle of 2007.
& z8 ^, c: B) V8 X# G. B# Y! h: a - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
4 x& k- X$ K6 [ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to8 \8 j2 R% S' x
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. \9 r- U9 @7 x; Z, d% o/ s
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# V/ s7 e+ x4 ]0 n3 ] poor affordability levels.) N! S4 c' l4 G1 h1 w3 X
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
) X# F4 Q% K: K0 W! c vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
- W0 O# k D1 o$ N" o. M prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% f# j1 k4 z! M g5 l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 O8 B# w Y, G* C$ y minimize any downside risks.6 c" O1 d% }) T& d0 u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 o7 X! n$ s5 f5 y8 _* m conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 f4 Z/ {! m, {6 ]% L1 W/ T
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early7 s- x3 ]. `/ \7 d9 ^; z& O
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; A5 i3 F1 D6 q$ `4 } being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ r+ `* U' b% d; F# ?5 F
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* X1 v# J1 t; ~( b" L: S Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus Z" t& z# | e8 Z% {% j
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% ^4 q7 l: A: V3 l2 f; i; b# a$ Q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 v! ?& H% @, g L; [7 a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ g; N) w5 A5 c/ ^& `8 k5 n modestly in recent years.
; f$ j- K: L1 G- H5 R: m - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the7 T" F5 F( T/ U" L3 \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 l4 ~: E4 _' C4 ~2 n& o, L
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 |7 T/ V- x0 E( d( d) N price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! q- ~% ~% \: q5 ~2 x% F following two years of deterioration.* X9 E H8 U0 f0 M
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