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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
' Q) H4 }) A, m5 W TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 a& h" o5 S' T1 B% xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* F0 q ]+ H8 r' Tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ E' q7 S7 F# I" i0 Qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- O' M* o R. ^. M- e: a$ G
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," R6 U9 @9 A8 J2 ^' b6 X
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ j; C8 S5 I) A6 i2 g
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 \% q/ x9 a$ {" d( s! a* E+ \measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
! ]% D, W+ o" G/ K L3 F4 n RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% H, @' K& E( K9 h
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 z m6 Y- E ^& { C% Vwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. X) n. M* P9 g! L; h
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ f7 ]6 O6 y) s# u+ V$ Y& H3 Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ |# l D7 ]* p. G
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- L' [; ?. n# q9 E4 \; g+ F5 Dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 M3 A5 Q6 W0 D3 M8 t! n; x
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" Z2 l5 \ l# ^: {; a9 x
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) D6 b7 r# M- c& athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.2 j! P& z8 `' _8 F; O+ K
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 E" j: _$ A; o" H1 N. u; @
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 L5 H, i( R% c: J. gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 j+ [. z- h7 _+ n' {( shistorically depressed levels., o# N+ p: Q4 {) b$ [ h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: ]1 l U [" `7 ~: I# }5 H5 x0 l
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 b# z* F, u4 c* N6 |! Vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& `: G9 B2 ~: t y$ `( F& @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 ]! ~, G* i2 Y7 Q. z4 Yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
s' d8 ^2 t- j1 U" W* W" ]months ahead," added Hogue.
7 B& h( G! _; _+ n; c b RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 v9 g# v0 R- h2 {# h: J% d9 @
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary @! @% ]) J. I4 ` K% X
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% `+ g- ]2 h9 T/ x1 A; e/ h The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: j) j1 c# }7 la broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 U- h3 J( W$ X. E3 V" A
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" }+ n M+ v& R8 j) ~& r mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. x, D$ m/ `9 B) f$ s The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
! D0 d9 `" L3 W$ U& Sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 x6 g5 f7 j" {' P1 t( B
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# i. x3 h; f3 Q3 G0 J8 nincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ V$ ~4 l) N% j0 x" Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
! s& I' [6 N, FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership% |( E0 t5 `& ?8 z9 T! R1 I
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ m+ q7 w9 a' {% x, Q9 L3 P- Q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' c1 _6 T0 @$ F" h
" j1 U$ I- `7 r. v <<* e$ S! Y2 F& [) I' e
Highlights from across Canada:$ X/ j p0 u7 ~! k, C
" w3 o# V; y; U: Q! Y! y. U
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: B- s& I. `* Z% p: {$ o
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ r7 a5 d: W) g+ e S- V
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* w& v+ f/ c, Q1 H9 c3 `. v only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 Z2 q5 m1 L& i/ Q& t* P) U" s since about the middle of 2007.- T( d& e$ N( ^/ i) u
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" _/ V: i2 t F; W
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 }' Q) p: c! O% j7 h0 o5 l6 Q
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still) e! y. _2 A' G5 ?+ m" p+ ?8 s
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: D9 q1 h( Q& L5 `, `
poor affordability levels.. C2 B& M* Y) s' M$ K) J
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ c3 ]4 ?+ t1 T+ x vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% Y) O2 g$ F7 Y `; r prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& t% x9 m# f% l/ L' G! X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 P7 r F& ~- c' i
minimize any downside risks.
$ y/ T! y. B+ m8 h8 U/ P - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( J* H% S) ~/ O7 `, q3 J6 e
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 `( u, n4 x# }$ T0 ` unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# _: C4 D( Z& ?+ n
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" t1 w/ _$ H4 y2 _1 z6 }9 G! o, d being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." W$ b. H* T) K* ]) Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
`8 Z" X; I8 ]) M* V5 O2 V$ y7 d% C Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus9 S5 C( t" ]7 Y& u) D5 K2 U1 H
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# H5 k! V6 o0 C% t0 y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# q; z. @) D5 S4 ]5 w* e
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( C" x: M$ A9 B6 {: }' e modestly in recent years. J3 v& d) P5 Q- n! F/ s. U4 T" Z; e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 G6 B8 q# B5 m+ U& e& \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 e2 S' }0 H& o8 Q% U spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 \) C+ p2 P# I- d8 _1 v* N price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& k) e3 H1 q. V: W+ s following two years of deterioration.: }( P# S! y* n
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