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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 s3 Z1 o+ u# s6 I" `5 d TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 C" M- F% {$ }3 }' n; B4 w
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ B6 h2 f: k; P# @6 z3 ^; mgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( B3 Q% W" G8 paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* W6 [6 T3 p5 h4 X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 ]! x$ h$ }9 J% p3 rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 Y) i- d6 E: S: ^) S4 O! u `improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ d9 c. M7 S L" n$ d$ O# |# D/ k
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 g- V2 c* y/ d8 }! Y
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
% D6 x* O7 b2 h/ G9 bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
5 c6 f% y7 I0 `0 F& x9 ^which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 b' x# Y! Z/ d/ V: l5 l% nsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; }. c8 t' z0 o: P7 B* j5 X# S
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the; B! A4 \; a4 J# P: l) a4 y
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 n! Q# C4 f) g" F% `
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ f7 a1 m3 w) `7 a* R( jAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( j) p E4 x$ U, j3 O' T% A
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 h- g4 w; `* p I) J3 jthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 V4 Z! F3 g3 y% v8 f$ a) ~7 m% |
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
w5 I2 ]0 f: ? W9 fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% L0 f9 c3 o7 N+ l
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
! y! B: N. b2 S9 b& s, J) b0 ]& }historically depressed levels.$ B% j( @8 _4 r0 Y+ E
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 g& P* Z+ N4 e0 Y% q: L! E* q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
: v* [6 F! E- H# [$ iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- v5 ^. ]+ R& h# m4 F$ Rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, \" H+ k7 A% [2 S+ Henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* d' ?+ d# P8 O3 H3 H& H* Z
months ahead," added Hogue.! u/ ~2 O$ b$ a
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 e3 \5 D. J) Q% P" o( Z; Q' P. ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
8 r/ {* t+ g* `. T) x- Y+ b6 T1 Z" {42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
; X+ b0 b. c" v. z The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: @6 D" v" r/ J
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 x! ?8 K) Q2 [' i( R# \
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, \& |' h2 d4 \
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 k( Z6 f& k: G6 | The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ R5 r* `8 C. ~8 Y; ~' D: R( }0 lbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ ~( e g! R/ U7 U9 }/ e! |7 j$ i
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' G* Z; {! l" N. A9 xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, V/ l& [/ y; l: J
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% |0 U/ E: {1 e1 T9 ZFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: e7 X3 g+ s8 F& |. z4 m# wcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ X* H, Z5 X, o% `5 P/ H2 g7 zper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# L4 n$ A/ Q7 E1 w' V' o! B9 f+ \/ q! M- V& Y+ L# R& ^. ~9 B
<<3 Z" J3 C: J/ D
Highlights from across Canada:' N) Y) w$ c; {2 I: l$ }
0 @" L8 }( G$ k6 |5 L - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 t2 N- I7 `. h, Y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
O! R* v& o( i- l Z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) B1 k8 f: }3 k" i5 k0 u2 a7 { only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
p1 U* i% w$ c/ `) q since about the middle of 2007.
& K) U& c( j# N/ D) v$ b - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
& C/ h7 s) h! i5 \" z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# Q2 H7 J# u$ ^2 B# J k" |# t decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, N2 ]* B- Q p# J1 Y' u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 k6 u1 R* l+ D$ G) t- z# M
poor affordability levels. n# ?7 L V) y- e/ `
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ I/ K4 `5 Q% D3 Z7 s `" m
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. Q3 w5 _/ U! a; V) E# Q1 D w
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.4 W; `+ n& b1 Y, d8 V
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 o e8 R6 A8 g7 ?
minimize any downside risks.
6 Y* p3 Y9 g& D: p4 e8 a6 P: B V - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
% U ^ Y0 { a' E/ S9 } conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) M/ E6 D1 R/ y3 P7 e$ [
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, d& X w% Y3 X* ~; s0 s
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- J' g2 G4 [( e7 _- p being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) P j: f8 h# V7 Q9 R- v - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ l5 j; h* `' A) u6 ?0 I: r Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus. N+ ^3 R* H& N4 x$ y% d* |1 B
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! N0 i$ U! S' ]2 M# @ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be5 R! p, X( Q( j% Y" q% s6 n% a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
. b6 K' G9 X& `6 s. s4 d' N% t modestly in recent years.
3 @" \4 b: E' Y% c B( T, j - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 i: @, H# Z% I: C+ D
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ G( w# P! E9 `. p* X3 C
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 i3 w; b( l) g7 x$ n
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 f4 R' {* J3 a) U" q, d5 {4 k
following two years of deterioration.8 U6 I C5 j+ Q$ N. H8 {+ R
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