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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# J- }, _+ R$ i0 A TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 m$ d6 h# p8 z7 x1 B
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! s# R4 Y. i" r7 L! d
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* j$ |& q# y+ n$ e; z5 Eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ h# x1 v4 Z }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 n$ m* t* x. l I
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% L. {0 L- l C# H& d/ ~3 n) p: b
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ b- j3 @! a. s2 y; u; m( t: ymeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 j% Z4 w8 E: g
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is5 G' O0 S, `8 B# A o7 O! q' a
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- j: ]+ G9 r4 D. R) H$ x9 Z
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have/ I+ [, b. k' ~
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
G: u& v! g' Y( N* s! v/ g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 ?1 l# i& y4 e7 v& l
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 }$ }" v% H# s' N, d% Y( lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ N" t, G/ s) ^5 C4 F% \1 f" gAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: N" |+ j9 G& q* j0 R/ D3 _4 ` O; j
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# Z: q7 [* M- |3 a; A6 h
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. K% {! k0 X$ ^- I6 Q( N According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 r8 K2 O, y* g4 Q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, [2 N9 r9 _7 U3 g. m: o. T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) w8 K3 j b5 k6 t& R2 d4 p' Uhistorically depressed levels.
( C8 I) }) Y0 X+ I" k& j6 q Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ h0 j @0 e% ~6 y; xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ I6 e* A: D3 Z: u' `
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
+ M) |% I) Y4 r$ P3 }5 mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 B8 K" E) c- fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 v9 n/ d5 i1 [$ y& H. e _6 M# e
months ahead," added Hogue.. V3 O5 [ T5 M
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: r) C0 M2 p" |& o Fcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
3 l4 R! _+ b: G8 _# @6 C8 d$ B: p42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 o6 t4 a. ^) Z1 X
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
+ [7 S5 w6 @& n$ }/ K% qa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 c: {: b3 Q2 R- M+ ucities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
3 F$ `- v2 f" w8 m1 a1 ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 _4 ?, M$ P8 q, k The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 e+ c% e" }6 o: o- Tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* `; X1 D! g) I0 D Cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented& i8 t; b6 D: l
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( v6 \+ J J; P" v/ Rcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) C5 c3 q) r5 b$ q4 QFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# c, u6 V1 a, I: Q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 M" L! l) H' ^& E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 e2 E+ T: j- u/ P! B, Q" Z0 H
0 J4 h0 G2 Z7 X- `" J* E <<
7 L4 H: O+ o# E Highlights from across Canada:
: G) ], ?0 u) H9 e! b
( I# V$ _( z$ d. h7 k9 Y! f( G - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& B' s$ q- E/ b: R
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ ~# x* o! I0 z0 R
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 e- X8 U! e0 p: G8 g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track+ i U' H U9 h
since about the middle of 2007.
9 {' ^: Q2 P7 F( w - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
3 `, u+ `& V$ R+ r; q* [ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 N5 N! |0 }+ q$ D! ?% D2 R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ m# H j4 x$ |0 m, f1 } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* y: f. Y" [: ?3 w( ?9 y+ w; }5 a
poor affordability levels.$ y* t/ S q. r8 e. |0 E: u
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 i l7 h5 }3 n; k+ z% q vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 n, a1 \+ P) p8 s# B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.4 L! F. R3 i- I, t8 ^
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: L' ]3 K; v4 m$ r5 E0 v' \
minimize any downside risks.
3 O E" t+ C! {) l8 j8 a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! b5 Q, T/ E, i$ m conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% ~0 ~+ z( p) y( J+ Y9 r; k
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 [+ g# d7 A6 L$ ~$ f! J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ o) g' r3 |* K/ U/ D
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& A4 u# n" k% {% `" c
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% q2 N3 G) y7 W+ L$ f1 R* g
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* n6 Y& B$ E% }" \$ x/ P+ _# V
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! b3 ~: c: u! A8 ^) c reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: v. R% f2 o, j4 Y' Y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ ]6 K1 G5 p) F" f
modestly in recent years.
0 H) a* x X n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; E% z. x- L% w K. y; H
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ I5 f8 J' h X) S3 Y! G
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; P; \+ n6 Q) x8 ^ N
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 p- F2 c) w: u
following two years of deterioration.
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