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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 L8 a/ x5 a8 S$ n1 l TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( n/ E! m# z8 X4 K
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 A n9 h3 E* ?' }gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 S, B5 s, |3 r& Q0 }- E l
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 B& ~6 p5 Q4 G* |& f
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ @2 u" V$ O5 A* Qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. q" T& w0 O: r6 B' ]! h+ i8 O; Simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability' W$ z) L( U; @ v' w( B4 K# W6 U" _
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" J9 v7 M* A& C) p+ O# Z% U$ @" ]
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is0 [1 d* m2 N7 Z( D# M: z6 b, h
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 l c% I( u1 w; o Hwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; E! v' g& u' C2 ?3 H `( \2 _3 jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( ^" d% `4 p- f' ^
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' j8 [: n3 w" w- Y2 f
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a7 i3 j. }$ ]1 C- u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ }; |' x3 I4 C( JAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 h& ~& S Z4 L) u, Q- h
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
' m. }# l* w5 ~1 `' M/ n' Athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# K6 J9 V/ N2 J! G* o" A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
H' E4 Q2 q5 [* m7 `) k$ T/ ?may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
$ _1 y D' ?. D- z+ k3 Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# w3 _) j. E7 W* D j9 t" Z" N# i
historically depressed levels.0 E) V6 C$ ~2 ^& `7 Q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
) ?7 u& {- J6 h8 ?; sof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 g7 e! L1 E" E4 | l2 T6 ~7 Sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" X+ Z5 d- b2 G( x- C9 }2 J
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* ~2 p* a( ]# A( i! K2 [* Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' u# M% e J( b6 s. |6 X) v7 Gmonths ahead," added Hogue.8 \% V0 z8 r0 o) I& d, j. B
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: ?: g- ?$ ~1 Fcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary l9 C' q9 w V
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
$ g) [8 G0 u$ L" f The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 I0 v' K- G5 Y5 U( F z" X
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ V0 |8 `" P1 p% J ?cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! |6 C: P8 M F% w0 ?/ z3 }% vtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) g; Z4 o; w3 @- m# `% l The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
9 k# C+ W" H& s g/ o% d; ]# zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property: P2 G& E/ t! M$ \' ?' f
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented( z1 R, R g6 v7 K q8 Y4 y& v8 t+ P
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 h- B/ k9 } g3 l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" A; ~# C/ U U$ h. n. y3 bFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 m* I' l4 O4 z) G! _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ ]4 X+ e F8 _- p h5 m+ O- Lper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: Z1 F& U# V5 I! ]& L
* G* w; ~- D/ ~# h/ D: R <<6 k& y% |5 f I! U$ u' ~! ^
Highlights from across Canada:* [- |& E# z, V
/ e# K* N+ ~" h' ?
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
0 P! m! m. ^2 y& c/ K; K7 I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, P; z; {+ j$ K: F1 | V home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 N6 q$ {( V8 j N; [ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track( g* a" ^% S! s C
since about the middle of 2007.
7 B ]& J( G8 z4 }+ P- E, ^ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 h; L( E) H$ {- Z2 K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 s, S& j& e& a6 \' d; W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& Y3 g8 l" X- L7 A3 o# m largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 T/ ]$ O6 M! _- M# K F- _; j& {$ n poor affordability levels.# r: O( }& Z, [5 {% m( R4 T. t+ a# w
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 J% `0 e2 L, t
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; L. k& T+ `; v3 B prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ D8 |. U& P5 }# _ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 Q4 |- }1 j" S1 q# L! i
minimize any downside risks.& @* A/ W* y5 g% y- v. b6 x" h* F8 O
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& u! n o0 A; M) W+ M+ s: \8 `
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ x: W3 W, a0 e: L g8 F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early U: r' O' r6 o P& K3 v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% x1 o1 h2 a/ ~7 u% d, c0 D) C
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) e" l5 w7 O) Z/ D! i) [/ J3 R) d - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, f7 E. D7 ?* z8 m# r5 p Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) ~# Y9 [- _+ v& e7 B/ \5 ]5 H0 W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
`7 [1 }& r; ? reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 X) O$ c, D6 O' B- L; T% W ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only& q& d V! X, t$ g* E
modestly in recent years.
! X% ~$ t3 t- z2 ]3 v3 ]! A4 X - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
a1 q$ |/ j7 h9 V J U( S general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
2 ~3 `* A5 k+ H2 K# \7 y$ a spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 q* \% X0 Z/ v; K5 A price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 @& z9 K O1 j
following two years of deterioration.
8 e% U# w" {# F O >> |
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