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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 t( E) d& }0 P; `: V TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: J' h' ~7 T0 m' e \' }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive) A: X1 U0 x1 f& f
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 B% e2 G9 m0 I8 ^% [
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
; S( L# q' Q5 T! K4 ? "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 h/ m! ^7 m9 u% q3 E: [0 ~
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 S% i7 u0 r) |2 C Simproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" l& I, T' m6 u. `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": g9 P+ w. n8 L6 O4 `
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 ^8 z& _+ r% n4 |- j- t' w
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 l9 Y) n# W' z4 t2 b1 R8 ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 c; o% N$ U" F; F7 k$ D
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes./ T' D: L. n M7 _
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 @2 H2 g% C6 c
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 S9 ], S9 E7 `* I0 {% v. U
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
' s" g+ n' y2 w2 c) J s0 Z! N* S8 J iAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
n; q, G3 ^- _0 c3 [& P6 g5 Z( d1 Astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 d- ~3 D M0 t' H* _, c* Z( ?* Q9 N& Y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' H# R5 Y& Z- I, a+ k* G& Q" { According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! L0 d; ?1 P) g( T# W7 ~2 h$ _3 C
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# U( i2 p% ]: k/ V* } ^
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" X' l6 V) R8 s; E7 k' W$ l- H6 `6 K
historically depressed levels.
1 Z6 F0 M" G1 K) x$ N Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 C0 g6 G, u" w- Yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
^0 J$ F0 s1 e9 Jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
1 ^# B$ l P6 U4 R' v4 ehands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& [( [! F/ T% e# ?/ y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 C* |% l$ Y3 e# y) L! umonths ahead," added Hogue.
0 W! z8 k$ J6 E6 Y9 q RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 q5 K9 T) R6 w$ W( xcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
, ] N9 U$ i3 R7 j, g, L* r42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 p. s; g; N8 ]5 ?0 `/ y- K The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for! d. Q! I5 P. A' }2 [! y0 _) S
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 A( r8 {6 Q2 [cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% @1 s p& c9 R5 D0 O
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* q8 E8 K" A) ^% P The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" _+ z) J7 t7 O0 L4 ^2 T
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! C; f! ^1 G7 G1 Jbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 V, j m2 f' @8 L1 y9 N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
1 S5 K! F- N0 q2 T4 i$ V Ucondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 Z: e; O7 F( l4 {7 V% h6 E" TFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' I t$ C$ a& o d
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50+ X( }, a# _ l) w+ z( v
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! F0 S. C/ Y/ {: u$ }( v7 q
1 S; M( D" e$ K% Q0 F& D <<
$ m% h& I4 p r% A0 H$ ] F! J7 L Highlights from across Canada:
) m u4 U5 G* l4 O# V# g# b) M* b5 o
+ ? D9 j; p1 y9 E6 k! d( R - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 X/ @! L! o% F$ \, [) c& C# f
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( V$ q9 } J$ _( @( B l
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 Q- ?' W. e3 n, l0 Z1 `! s only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ B! ?8 E: ~' w% z* P2 J
since about the middle of 2007.
0 }) a/ v- e8 N. u - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
Y0 @4 j$ Q, `2 Q0 ]' e% r frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 T8 T. t5 _$ Y: l3 E) ]1 F! Y+ s decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 L4 @, _" C& a% f: Y2 r$ u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, [; B5 S- v- s& g3 r
poor affordability levels.
) Q# I0 O2 M1 g+ X7 } - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
1 j# A7 X2 e. W vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% |5 K# [( r0 n% i( ~! h prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.. v8 b6 A* S! Y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ Z& Q- F4 Y4 b6 _8 ^; v% o4 g
minimize any downside risks.# D8 n1 M, N' f- P; z6 n
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) q' V! z) t7 c/ Z6 z; ~
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
`( i) i5 ^& Z6 k/ ~+ w unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 E7 T6 u: H0 Q! h; Z% I9 B
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) i" G* |8 P: l$ l' Z) N6 L
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.$ o1 l" ^/ \' T, p: K9 I
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in' P6 e3 I4 a/ {" n9 ^4 L2 i$ H
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
q& e' c4 t. z& M( [! W0 V4 U far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up. _$ y# W+ g" G" a( N7 ~; d
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be, d; X, Y% ?/ q0 }4 P% e: L
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 K+ M, ~( ]( V! f
modestly in recent years.1 c+ K3 K& v% U) y9 \
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! b" g! _# a4 [ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" R V/ {- U) I. W6 I2 {+ {; T spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' ]" A+ X; `! n$ C: ]
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! }1 O$ v/ `4 j; x; f! P
following two years of deterioration.
& a) z/ G3 z& k" a2 e# f3 Z >> |
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