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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " p, V* Q" ]$ i# t
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 \% U& V( X' G0 n* d3 u! _
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# M7 {( X {0 ]5 P: t
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ K' L* Y- T, v3 v- Uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# L0 r8 k) V9 p: s4 g. ^ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"0 n( a0 s9 m+ b: e; e1 s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is8 C. M; o0 H+ p# N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability% O+ {9 @: g3 Q4 x4 J$ W
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ a: I7 q7 V Q( t+ ^' P RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 @! R# \. K: u' ?$ Y0 W# @/ Zworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! g: q- d+ T! Z. U8 Nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 K1 C- i. U4 Y2 e! Nsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) h- p+ i5 P. h" o6 R7 o* B The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 o% B/ s5 C7 {3 S3 a: s+ e
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a7 B2 c e5 h( t- z/ r
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 p+ b0 S& x$ g' {3 r
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 e' f# K4 Y$ x9 O* W/ ^0 Z" f5 xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. W2 L6 S( p1 ]the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." K2 c' a# O: M+ L. c1 o; y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ }3 K6 @- e" U& [6 u) _
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 }; m8 g/ U; D8 X( N P# _( [
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 A$ K4 z3 s- b: z4 N
historically depressed levels.# N7 o/ R' F3 v5 y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost/ ~! r- J( p8 V2 O
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 Q4 l2 ^1 _0 ]0 } M1 k# g
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
4 H5 J" _5 e0 M/ i+ yhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 Y5 e9 Z* x% Y+ U6 A! F; O) f+ Qenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
T7 E# F) d( H9 m, T. |months ahead," added Hogue.
' o% P% ?1 o3 ]* F, R) h2 u RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 f1 y- |3 |- U! Kcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 M3 ^5 X: }. I0 x/ r( w Y4 r
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ H- ^1 S" O. d* T
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 Q" i: L+ ~' d+ i
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
+ @, _3 B- ?9 p9 x0 {cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 j! v' @/ F* V" W9 s d" atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- [' I/ z' _# K- q. Z( ~: V% j' |
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is ?) i4 c0 b2 @- d
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' ?" V) ], x2 o! l) e
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
! f$ S% i% t, L# t9 I3 O; bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ V" u" c( K7 E/ ycondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., w, @1 n' u3 s8 a4 B O+ N
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 r; {% x g- u, ^8 u* g
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, H& d3 M; ]" h. t3 ^, \
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ E& E5 o1 b0 t8 ?2 T: J' L9 ^- N; |" M( c7 k
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4 n) m- r+ h, x- Z; N& o Highlights from across Canada:3 ~/ k% e. b4 p5 x
, ?! d) T+ v* Z: j/ q% } - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ Q8 C! t7 D1 m: g( T intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. C/ t8 [# \5 m; a6 p% K home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! G) K7 _& x4 r1 S% q8 m' @
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# d0 b9 d. ?) @9 _9 \! z since about the middle of 2007.7 m3 z6 s& T0 p, f5 z
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 w. V) r9 f e
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 g5 y* d6 n& [ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" H# Q2 u* z+ m) L
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
2 b0 o4 c) T; h2 _ poor affordability levels.1 n( K8 F# z3 ?1 d5 M, u8 D4 C1 y
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 N4 S- h6 R+ i" T vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% W& F( i. N2 Z& I3 T% o prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& r7 S) v/ {( Z) |7 h Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ q2 p( a3 L% ^' R
minimize any downside risks.
z* {; U7 g8 q- f9 Q& D% b9 I% P# S - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& J8 |9 v o4 R$ W/ m. i
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( n, Q, x) \) s6 G6 O" m9 I; Z! M unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( Y/ `2 v! l. }( O( z, p7 P 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) A/ x( L6 H# a. w3 Y! |. P/ j being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% Q& A" u! d( p% W9 i+ V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ n- B' s& e" f, W8 |4 p
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# L, r8 s8 K7 H: l3 N
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- S) W6 F& _ R
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 h2 C7 j0 l* Z# X( n9 C ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 U+ X* k) {2 i6 ]3 v6 g; d7 @% }
modestly in recent years.
1 J7 z8 [8 O! B/ P( Q5 g% u - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ \4 z; p3 ? D6 _2 b2 }/ _ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot. G5 T! F. r) d) L! `- a' c$ N5 l
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ h$ @/ K6 X- }! w% p
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 c! X, V( w' v% i
following two years of deterioration.- K' T9 a" O$ k+ N& D
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