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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . W% e2 H) U$ k( Y- ^
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 a( p7 Z1 ?( v: c$ l7 a# @( H2 dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' |3 g1 x; ^/ l* x. s5 \gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,5 N3 v; G1 U! R3 z7 o
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. \2 m J0 A) j0 \3 A& o$ }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
# Y' W( @# h$ M7 qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 j7 O/ ?& a. w; f v2 P( ?
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
W: _. j$ ?% ]9 Zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."0 C1 _' j7 N& z$ s
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( V- `5 W7 G1 `+ g3 |
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 B0 }: ~! @$ Z' Z% `+ S- o
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! W: A' R! R, E! ~! Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., _: y: B' K2 N0 ^0 \; d n
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 V1 ^7 u( @& m& i, ?
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
; \6 d& v2 T/ `7 n4 R. ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& B; g @$ C( ]/ R. zAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( P- m9 _" p; f& |9 @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, W2 T5 c, X( F3 @: ?the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* M5 |. B" D5 u: w- {2 _$ G
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( D9 Z4 o& f8 l$ l
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 ?" e) N1 R V# s, ?
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# C4 f( R3 R# i: Q" H: @2 B" Q0 d
historically depressed levels.
8 l9 z; I0 X3 R6 u2 c W Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) T- p7 k! v, L% G- g* b5 ]
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
% v( |7 P h# J1 }3 f' l1 i' ~prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! F/ O) Z7 T8 }hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 ]. z( G1 N. ~6 }: y' ]% cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 R( ]. m6 g: W9 S5 Y+ F1 ]
months ahead," added Hogue.5 }" ?& W) Z1 R6 R7 d
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 o- J. l' n& z* `cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 {2 }9 j X! Q: P
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.2 s; v. R6 s1 j# C+ A! L
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; p! Z7 n8 R' e3 D- X" Z0 f* v* a% w
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 z, U i& x5 w2 Acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 F* K U/ H# S( @
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., l* y& x$ [7 ]/ P {# q( N: l
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 R- Q2 I3 M e( n# Y7 F, U$ o! vbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 r2 }/ q% Q9 m6 wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# Y) ~7 Y' y# p+ P
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' X k" A Z0 i& f
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 o5 y/ O/ K5 ^! J
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" B( K0 D2 J0 _6 H+ ]% |* G; c$ ^costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 ?/ {' w4 l) C1 E2 Z1 K4 ]. Iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' R" B* r9 ^& l+ p/ `/ W
0 @: r) S' H4 P& t+ S' A% W
<<4 Q' z' u9 K: ^# M" Y) S! L' o
Highlights from across Canada:2 h p n, P0 m# y$ U) p
& K* ^- H7 j( f2 F3 ^8 { - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- H: w% F) ~9 Z/ W intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ {# x9 x/ p; o) B/ Z: l& I5 ? home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 c$ S) S" l5 b0 T( _1 K* x
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. I. W g3 i( ^+ C4 H9 d! @ since about the middle of 2007." `. N3 N) u7 ]
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the+ b \1 i* M% D3 s: s
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to2 X$ W& m+ z* W3 q3 `5 L" Q; k
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) X+ X; \2 s# p. A largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* o: \1 b) s$ }+ ?* S' Y poor affordability levels.7 h6 b e% [9 S: `
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the G0 c8 G) a: O0 p
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 F: p3 U# V% h& C/ I prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- T/ _$ I% [0 |2 @& `0 ^8 U! ^ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) u5 L8 x$ q7 j4 B e) H, B+ D
minimize any downside risks.9 i6 w% W( f. V, |
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 @ ^3 M5 u3 x: h conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& i& F! e; ^; U% A* A unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
+ W1 t/ N# N$ o2 R; _8 J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* p7 T" c) s# j, R5 y% u being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 X. U3 J1 D/ @! Y, U6 F# P6 v0 y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ B5 p, D3 C( u b0 ?6 }
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; F" C2 ]3 m6 }7 B$ d1 z& q( w* g far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. @. S7 Y" x) n [8 f; ?* K reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 A! d% {2 [+ c1 z# \* r6 C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- `, v& ?9 q; U8 I& E+ L! y' Q
modestly in recent years.+ K1 M; i% Q5 f) I! C |$ V
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
) N5 I( i. W3 ~ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! O- x- S c* X' q: b1 h spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& A! o- ^9 |# \; F5 M3 g
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 I' e, ?4 [( r following two years of deterioration." b9 B! l3 X' z) u8 s! `
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