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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; _3 d3 H0 u5 X; U+ @3 D6 u TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 e/ B! A* u) b) S1 Z; ^3 v
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 b& F, N6 ^# v/ |! U5 @9 f7 F! V( egains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, H( A3 b- W% b+ }8 E f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." \/ J) W3 k' B/ v' `2 N
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 B8 Q" q& a4 @4 n- \; N8 n, psaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! [$ s8 @ ]3 q! f- Y9 T( Z ~improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
- d& s# ^2 p% T" X; g/ lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) {; c5 k7 L/ ?! t RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 M4 f% i1 E& L' l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
~, i, s( h" R+ `; \4 {5 Hwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 ]6 I3 j2 g, T, c( I8 Msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ q# T" J" c0 O& J2 a The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* `( Q7 [, P+ d9 w" E. O6 v# a2 mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- v/ X0 U$ `+ t+ Q& {home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* m& }$ @9 I- T! i& E7 ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 F1 i8 s& r G9 d, i# K8 Z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) _" b7 J: @2 y" sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. b @# `& I& u e7 O m. G
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ C* J/ e+ n3 o% O& K# ?8 W* E4 Zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" p+ a, t9 Y- r2 m. Q4 c" d4 A) z5 Rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& w& Q! l& H, l" R4 m! Uhistorically depressed levels.
, t1 k% S+ v8 w1 f7 C/ b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 ^3 s8 D! b/ C. G- c3 @of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' Y# M# \( Q: ?( D, jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% _2 y0 Y& Z% s$ n; t- ~hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% Z) N$ }4 {6 _3 @- _$ ]5 Renormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; y* M' s p6 p- L. w6 bmonths ahead," added Hogue.
. Y1 b' J: _9 _ V% q; B RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( b$ ?$ M0 p8 _$ r m* H, B& [
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 P6 N& _* [) T42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- j/ X2 L0 @0 A2 E' ~& E The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 b4 v, ]7 J/ L$ }/ P
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these: l3 z: W/ \+ F/ S f* S
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ t6 i8 j+ m) L3 r' ~ \. h
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* z" i' C! F$ @5 Y2 @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is: t# U l5 }) m. Y+ l
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 n [$ U2 z [/ P Z7 wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented. k5 g% X6 R* _* {$ @1 E0 L8 F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ P" G7 D. c$ F: v! x [5 b* N
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) P3 W( ^! o4 K8 I! V& [For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ n" h; d% O. U) }0 b; R1 u/ F
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% G$ v7 E3 Q4 A5 S, \7 Zper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 q- Y. G" l# x" h+ Q6 M) l- Q- ?, c0 Q. E" k0 Y
<<! g& [' X4 P- B' Z' n$ u+ J3 B
Highlights from across Canada:
" @; M3 ~2 L: p5 p- F4 X( _$ w4 B( D* a0 q1 L- ~: i- H9 O
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 P$ R6 ?/ ]1 C* V
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 L2 z( {! N5 ]0 a! a8 l
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; U) c/ l* W: f% y* p* W only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 E1 U, T% r+ w3 m: Z; I; i* Z8 M
since about the middle of 2007.8 O" z* c2 J1 ?( @( R) C( p
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 W6 D4 m9 m2 y' `
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- G/ O4 J# j T% `5 ] decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ Z: H$ [- t J. r& U largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely) K4 m% y4 _9 ] H/ S) C
poor affordability levels.7 v5 V0 i5 `- L$ i, r% k
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
7 x$ M" a/ Z* A0 o: d vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
O# Q5 l. @. W) h7 y7 M: L prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 ?0 |- p% C7 F6 v Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to, n: E& o1 W* U7 C* h; ^
minimize any downside risks.0 v v: |9 ?4 f, R1 L4 t
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 ?8 R' r. I$ K9 S+ X; S% q conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 {0 ~' E( r$ T
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early y r+ ^6 j) |1 u! k0 M. U3 U
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 V/ t: m4 V4 m# o% } being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 M* w- d/ {- L( Y, O
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 ~( Z) s+ \: V0 Q: ^$ s Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
( Z! e& T: ?+ J5 C" s far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ k* w& W' Y- H2 v! E/ z$ Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
, k; P! s. \$ ~, S ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only% H& Q6 M6 Q$ f b+ v4 D/ w
modestly in recent years.8 R) c8 Y+ V+ E; y- Y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& Q: _+ S& r6 b `: \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 Z9 [) @6 \ t: ?# b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) \6 o( D4 U5 s" z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! y; v. k) ~0 z- [& j- i; G following two years of deterioration.
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