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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: [' W/ e% m! d: Y6 \6 }% W TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& g3 t4 _* r, jmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive f ~* ?; l( _
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
- y6 @5 n3 t8 _6 r& v# r& c$ S$ Qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
_/ q6 h) b& b6 y0 J6 k "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"/ p' c# U. ]1 ?& F- X4 i6 o& e
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# ]3 h, x" w: D9 g3 r0 timproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! g- L& z( ^# J; t8 @measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
( ~) u8 w3 c" t+ H, P/ I; \0 Q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 Q" M8 }7 C: Q* \worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ X/ P V' W5 t% @7 e- {which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
9 M; g* `6 S: }2 K5 x2 y/ rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 g) [: {7 Y, X' s; f# E The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% S0 I) W n" g* D/ ~1 f+ @7 Nproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" Z* t; E0 N' {, K6 ~& ~" U/ F
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* `" i9 b8 P8 o o1 `. x" B0 u7 d
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# _ Z1 @7 v" _5 N3 S6 i
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
6 i ~- I" G% \8 h5 t1 f: n' Ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ i. a ^$ y4 p& ?/ t; `
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 a; g, y- ]: `) j2 j9 o" \5 rmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ Q8 R- V2 n M9 h( o W9 rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ j/ [8 L' h; B1 a( e. M/ |4 J# [
historically depressed levels.9 S1 R( I, W, f9 j4 g
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- T6 x0 ~ \! `5 I1 X/ S8 E% U2 z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House, b9 P! D0 h7 M S% v# Q
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 J" m5 J4 B: K
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) E6 y6 u6 l1 zenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ }; p3 I$ e. ?4 R* kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
! |/ r8 I* r$ X6 I! Q/ z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, i4 ~5 n# \" C% @cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
, B6 O5 ]3 n! l42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 ?. ~0 q( N7 r$ N" W8 T
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% O. @3 w& ~8 f' u) P) fa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 k! }" o0 R* V" `( I" K4 l
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: @. m! E3 [" s/ H) @6 i7 @takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, `; ]% o) L2 n. e/ b! @ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! o/ z; F8 w y* L o# \
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% ~1 Y4 P3 r$ ^. r! g
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; t4 l; @3 l. M* X; c
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 _0 [- [+ ~4 x0 M: b2 C9 G
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., k8 U5 [% S; @' k) j
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' p& S: `3 k% Pcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ t+ g. R( C5 j" n" x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# b* E7 e& Q0 c1 V$ s
0 T q+ x6 k( V4 Q" l# F. O <<
1 y1 N( K. A- W1 x Highlights from across Canada:
5 Y# G; ]9 a) {4 u# E9 j
! Q4 ~, I. i. ?, w9 p" e4 d& E - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 k+ Y# M% H, H8 d
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ S+ n$ E4 u& ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 Q; x; W$ G) s, X/ H, o' g3 N only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
, l. P# S1 c: Q" |0 i3 V since about the middle of 2007.0 R8 ?' Y. a3 i' l' I4 k. r7 s
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 a9 J9 J+ h. @7 T
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 D2 U7 r. D3 m {$ V0 A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* Y" `4 d8 u$ w0 o
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely0 ]: l3 Q& [. G1 G1 Z4 ~7 d
poor affordability levels.
: M8 P8 M# D9 | - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) i1 }& Q" l3 o5 v4 w* z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 s5 {3 G3 S: C& A" Y3 h1 L( \ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; c; e: |- q5 y3 \* U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 K( a, t6 m5 v l3 G/ ~
minimize any downside risks.
/ E% ~8 I/ p3 l, \ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 i0 X7 }7 ]$ A9 Y: {4 K, m conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; @9 |) p# |( l/ S$ z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ Z$ D# a( c& g7 A, Q( J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly* {0 Z/ H" J( }
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.: d" {$ }2 `; u; c
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% v; Y6 g& f8 j3 l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- v e7 g G# J( F8 W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
8 e4 f/ e r/ ]1 l, y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
% _" z% A' V' P4 R3 R, z/ \ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only0 U# h8 u) N: {4 b' `% F4 ~
modestly in recent years.
. h% k- ^3 X" v! q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* D% U/ @* j8 o* J general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
7 D2 V1 k' d6 x# K, {/ N: O2 L spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 H; \5 K7 D+ Z0 ? o0 R% ` price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability8 K6 m! a! B! t \5 W/ K. q
following two years of deterioration.
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