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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % K, X7 _& ^' a7 I" z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
. Y0 q6 V5 k# d) Ymiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: S# |9 I1 e/ u* ]0 ~gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: e8 H# ~; ^% p9 A9 [) ?% _' zaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
, e0 i) _) C! X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- ~ W" b, D$ z8 M" nsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is, C1 `6 x2 s4 G$ u
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" L9 q+ | F+ omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# ?& f- I" b, [# n2 ]
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 k' Y0 S/ ^" t0 M8 ~worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 c. u7 z" Y- s4 K
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) \+ A/ T c" L5 t/ Lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 G8 E7 j/ x3 z G; b The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
" I- P1 ?8 b3 h# j: T9 lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 b$ L! K# D: r
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
3 G! c+ i7 ?6 \9 H/ U ]. TAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# W' p1 ~2 y) S! i; A. @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 E' U9 ]6 r; K5 m
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* v3 r* z* H" D b* `& ^ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
; P+ R7 J* f; H, }& c; z$ Pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- _2 D2 U: _" ^! _% z, c( ^+ a
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( X, N' e1 v. z7 F* x3 ?historically depressed levels.
2 R0 K/ R. l/ O4 `# N Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost; w7 M* }: ]) j" L
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
" ?: c% \3 O3 rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" C( ^' b1 x$ V" \hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 a2 B# A6 @/ h1 V" Wenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& M ^. X+ b% v1 o% B- amonths ahead," added Hogue.; u: ~+ ]- r; P3 H" v) ]
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
6 Y9 R" Y: ]7 |1 y6 [4 D& ~* c# p; Scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 \& K; I. ?3 n8 s2 w8 _
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# E0 Z' Y+ k; M4 e9 w0 ?: y2 D5 e
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 `8 g i' Z) x) b% u, p2 H! X; n' c* Na broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* d) F+ q& g/ [6 c3 G6 e1 H9 Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& c" D" C) o: h6 D4 |7 i, I S8 Stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 ]" C& K8 U; z; P: u# B9 P. A The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( B- `$ c$ B/ A4 [based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property6 J) H( \2 P4 ]
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: T+ Z8 [3 P) t; L1 A) ?# s
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard! b; a- B( ^/ V
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
; H. E9 A' q! QFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 z4 u( ]7 }+ j6 icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, u% S3 m# Y' u$ s9 l6 o
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ Q- M- Z4 v9 `( ?( k
* n8 P) e0 t2 |! {3 H0 f <<$ e$ I- Z* K2 \; f+ q7 u1 }* ^+ O
Highlights from across Canada:
7 z/ X) s6 i2 P' |0 h
2 o7 Z5 q7 _0 z" s; `/ l - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 W }) b @) A; D+ c
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' b, o$ R }0 k r+ G$ V0 o home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 l N, P1 w( E& u9 A only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 G2 \7 q+ G4 S Y" a4 ?
since about the middle of 2007.1 M9 \2 n" w, p! y- k+ n- X
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' g% n+ q6 }# w# F
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to( J' e( u" Y7 K# g) L( e
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" ]% r9 v2 B4 j* m9 y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
[0 N, H) \( v5 N2 t. c4 t poor affordability levels.
$ ]- r0 O8 O) F1 ~& x1 i; A - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 U* H' j& t. x! u7 ~6 a+ ~
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" e/ S! i/ s* K) p2 S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& [! P/ F) K' u) ]% u& x, r( h
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) C0 ^& g% ?" A) q minimize any downside risks.3 x$ x/ y+ t: g$ A5 l
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market5 L1 e& M+ H# i6 t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# I5 y' P$ `8 b4 ?( E# k1 J" N unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ K+ c j3 B( x* \& \; a7 x 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 S' @6 q. a' X" V5 G1 R being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; h8 s3 W$ n# `5 A3 x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
1 P! w; P1 R$ |; |; F Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 N- [# G: r# t7 c ]" e7 s- x1 P
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. D" h/ T8 p8 B# `$ \ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ V- I5 _: @ ~% b" Y7 O- u
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ d# [0 a: E1 U$ g: i modestly in recent years.0 E" p M9 u* I0 Q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( V) t/ d. r. u* G+ B { general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ W v* w9 B0 l- t( G* T spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' v h% M0 ]5 Z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. t/ I4 q7 c9 {: M _ W- J following two years of deterioration.3 U0 \4 M6 D' N6 z: J" P$ z, o
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