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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % w, ^* V" R0 {* m% t9 h; h
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
$ O3 [; w7 e* C G0 G6 emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- l$ J6 E \3 r4 v0 ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 O( C0 A/ f2 f+ F+ `0 p. b( l4 _6 Eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 K8 N; x& v! r( }% U+ a
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 Q; D: `# p# Esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! t( d% d; R! X7 iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 x+ q* ?% n6 nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
6 E" E s: \$ c5 Y G( C$ J! b) w RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* }" L \0 b: _& w' `5 [) |* C9 q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 e7 g4 B7 s6 H2 O- w/ }/ Xwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
q& b. X2 z$ t% Isustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 `$ N9 P, g7 ~ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 o4 P" f7 \7 [, i
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 Q2 f7 c/ S( ^
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* }! J' ]6 O1 V. WAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ ^9 v, K/ @8 h3 c' f8 D2 f
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 q, l' g; }( m1 c$ Ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 v4 s4 X6 ]7 C) m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets w( D! X) y% k f! q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in2 O3 X1 G3 q l E* D' R, T2 }
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" n1 Q" e! c* M, b0 a" w
historically depressed levels.. m; t- N( E+ d
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost* m1 k& \+ @: }. y: n$ ~
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& f" k% O8 _, M. S
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! r; ]( B1 J# T1 H9 `. B! chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
; d0 _$ _& A8 C Z. N& ?' lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# M; ] }$ f! v$ y$ amonths ahead," added Hogue.. D5 y2 K5 ?1 ?- H; c" s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# N" n3 v* y2 N0 P, I: ^: w+ E& ^2 ~/ }% ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; d; q" M3 r3 m* P# w9 X+ V& V, A42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# G$ x# f' a) h, N' X
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 h6 i1 n% S3 Z! ca broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' q" {. l8 R9 W5 u( X/ [, n b+ Fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
) W9 d3 a5 A! b* c' stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 }/ \. ~8 n. T! F2 _ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 H8 m0 ?- L1 `* l
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 H8 Z4 }% s4 i- Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& M$ n; }: [3 N7 A7 g& `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' L$ M' y* r' z4 v+ Fcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 b0 c! |2 d6 T% S, N) cFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 D( j. k; d0 x) ^9 _
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) U- Z/ e) E9 r& X4 v! y/ {/ n
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 l* S! X% o9 X$ ? @) j k7 Y
$ ]/ U; {( Q6 z% J7 ?# |
<<5 `* i3 b0 [6 X/ l
Highlights from across Canada:
$ A! L! T" V1 F) P4 h W: H
& O/ o! n1 g0 l9 m4 _$ w - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 e7 \# T$ v- @" P; A! Z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
7 c2 U3 @. @7 H C% G+ l4 t- h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; N- k. _* E. b; k5 {8 y* Y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- l1 x) a% p5 U" ?' u j* J7 ~ since about the middle of 2007.8 e, i/ _' ~. E1 x+ A- D, D% H
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
1 J( J. ^$ v- U! w frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# ^ i, Y2 `4 ]; s# | decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: \; X* b8 D. B5 C
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely" r" C; u4 _6 b& K+ L1 \
poor affordability levels.
* p3 M) r) y$ G( k( e - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ V: s8 z* K: Q. z0 u vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 h' E/ b2 `7 j( ^/ p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 n" n9 ^6 _* |) D4 M! ]
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( ^/ e4 D, F8 [) x minimize any downside risks.; m" v. ^* v7 [
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" @7 _+ W0 ~* s conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) n' c! ?6 x9 o8 F* h
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% J0 O6 z, k' }3 j3 |
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* [1 C7 t: |9 u9 |% e0 C, g* g+ l being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 Z$ Z# j4 t! B3 m; A/ A - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in Y8 f. G% z' u6 p
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
& |5 H3 u( ^7 @4 }; u; R B0 ] far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# k, |% y1 J2 m' V' C
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 Y) N7 r7 o, v+ u$ Z/ `/ V. s" C' D
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ A4 X& m$ n+ T modestly in recent years.. s2 l1 E7 H! z7 Z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" i, ~. E' M% @0 z& Q. d
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* o8 u0 u- ~+ p% k0 I
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
# n6 |2 j/ |4 O7 A! F6 l4 a price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( }+ `9 Z; ^4 S* A following two years of deterioration.+ \# c# I# |5 j
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