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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . I2 t7 |& w3 a) d3 ?
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the1 m# G8 m: R6 e0 m3 B
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# S3 A/ R3 C5 q+ @( U1 ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 z4 Y3 L' q/ ]& Xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: t9 _) Q4 S' i6 o, _1 K4 E% G) S "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 I; g5 q8 Z# w+ \+ Zsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( T$ U4 D3 W4 v& timproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# t7 {* k; |8 b4 s' g/ _& bmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."% [ g# c, }+ M! t% O
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 A8 N! a6 C" J5 N/ kworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 }; S P2 Z. ?
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 I, t: U v6 ~! z
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.5 ~' S- l9 T. f
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the2 D9 I* T6 N$ E @' }5 L: J. V
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ \% \& T* {' Z i% o/ O' P) d
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# j9 ?) S. N5 E! E: I; ?1 e
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the1 ^$ y2 E" |, P
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% D5 A/ [6 e) [4 q8 [+ T qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." u# d! G& G0 l3 u. c
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: v2 [' A0 [0 R- H) [3 k% Q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 T+ k+ T6 \' _' athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 w7 W1 [! w1 A9 r& |' }% Bhistorically depressed levels.7 X! G) [/ h7 u) Z( p1 e$ y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost/ ]* E* V2 o& [: z/ C4 d9 P
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House T$ B o. R L: Q4 b6 @0 ^9 _
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the; ?0 G6 v6 t7 F( B) P1 T
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& B* `9 u" c# f. I7 G' J: }3 }6 |
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 P; V! s/ ~& c4 cmonths ahead," added Hogue.
6 ?' N, Q# U' J& m RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, v6 h& k* y: Dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ x( d( Y9 s @42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
/ G/ Z' F8 V3 d' y! d( b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 ^3 Y* t5 V6 S7 D+ @ E
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- {4 b' o9 C ^
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
. H6 S& O; L( {takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: Z0 k2 p) o0 j3 t/ T: e: ?& D The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. j$ u$ x( F/ \8 v* l0 |# H- Jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. t! c9 G# T) Y* ?
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; L* h$ B* v+ E& ?) |* }
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# M7 \0 K, O0 `3 g: j/ \6 a! X, Gcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
C2 k, s* v7 x0 B5 v! g# mFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
& r6 [1 R- L% Y7 u) M! A# `5 ^/ `costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( E9 K% ~8 k3 ?! n" S2 `per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: q. P+ @7 G5 A% v9 }% Y
9 H8 G% j3 a# U n0 I, \
<<
( S/ @$ t1 m8 K& V/ X7 q Highlights from across Canada:
( L7 J6 U' C' f( Z( P1 {* G# e2 S; A( `7 n6 }& j! @3 _
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( ?7 |& P- a* Q4 N$ ~+ |& I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 O) H. O& v" u/ y# Q5 x% Y& A home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# n0 _, S1 I3 \/ r, I
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 x. {' U2 ^/ ^: ] since about the middle of 2007.
8 f0 G! m* M6 c% D) h - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( h6 |* k$ [# W9 f) T! p
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( D5 y9 ]1 ^ h V decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
} }( p% D+ Y! P; K/ G5 w largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 P# Z+ N. i% F# k3 t poor affordability levels.
8 F% ]5 r+ G/ ` - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ g6 s. b9 f2 g L3 |. |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% ?/ y& e4 D& X- U8 T& J: ^4 S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ @: M6 I, f' D% z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 v$ e3 d$ a3 T5 z0 I; h
minimize any downside risks.1 A2 O w/ Z4 d) q( l. e- q
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! n& {* [ u. p5 g
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ h0 z7 @* Y" L% c- q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) X2 L \% m9 W, m; K7 C7 ~ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 s- Z( X9 m8 f# V1 S, x being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ G' a& G$ e- U0 N; J- }$ C6 \5 b0 @ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 V8 z# [6 S" _) d, u
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ F$ T) Z2 m0 @, \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 m+ i! i) Z. |/ \, ]/ l1 H: h
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 H4 ^' ]6 U# r, K
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 d1 C" R" ]' M. D* H modestly in recent years.# W0 v# T7 |+ W4 D/ j8 Q+ m* O7 Y9 v
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! l0 Y, `* e" L) `" Q8 J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# s- i! ~3 b) _4 O) ^
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% w& H2 `1 M5 H1 D* o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( J$ Y: T6 D$ k/ c4 J' C following two years of deterioration. m) L, F8 V& ~0 d. ]3 i7 f
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