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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
! q% P9 K1 Y* j' q TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# y" H- O3 Q* f. m6 i/ o
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 H( d) G' a; v& Q, D. mgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 l/ [' Q- P% x- Q
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.! s! x8 Y1 W& }
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 W9 Q L6 Y. F0 O( @3 F
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 J# T/ K) i ?2 S% y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; T5 b6 X( u: y) ~$ v+ B" Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 T, a4 U: t! D RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" j6 r4 A* |( n+ o- D+ ]
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) h2 r0 F% p! f6 K6 {- B
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 Q' `( B3 G5 Ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% z" G: G9 ^4 l* e) C% k0 r The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
5 {2 k6 v# H j, Aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 H& q1 Y) L' T1 J$ V4 k9 Ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ `- o+ p5 Y7 S" J. V5 \2 u( G) c
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 Y F+ i# I: z: m' i/ d, Xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, W- {% ~3 ?) Z2 L$ U% p- Tthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 s6 _1 b6 F4 [. o
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
( `1 X$ s1 M7 m t' p; amay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 F8 Q- Y( \, t3 Gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at; r' @/ j8 B; b: e
historically depressed levels.
- H( k3 j/ _8 T; }5 g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ h6 P1 r6 R8 h* V' Lof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 z+ D. A( D5 X5 G: U y9 i
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 r! z/ ^4 r4 Z9 ~4 Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! ^1 F6 `( y$ v( P8 L+ L
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 A. v9 u2 B3 Y$ _1 l
months ahead," added Hogue.# E2 N: [/ V4 o3 ^( |. V- l( W* B) {
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 \' F7 P0 D1 Y. \: acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' y4 j9 c8 }$ ` q! w% r5 L* }+ M
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# }: ]. G, D* s. t0 Z* I j The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. a. C; E! Y6 M' ] N. h
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
% d7 S5 Z+ H& L0 [cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" j8 [8 n7 a3 X: I) x/ w* W( ?
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: m+ B4 ?6 f# t2 t4 d
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: Z- s" c5 s0 K- ]- \. M( @' sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 f1 @" K, k4 m# Q5 I0 Q6 _
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 x3 o, Z, D4 m: |! s& fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 p3 l3 E. l& m/ s Z. }condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. E! R( L) z" A1 S8 }* m) \, ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 {8 c, U9 ~# }0 V1 ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 O7 @% m; _, g$ |* ?* F; E: L* Aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 Q5 {4 s8 l* a h
2 O9 `! c1 a; i% M; [4 f1 i( { <<
7 f; n( T" R+ u4 ]& P; a Highlights from across Canada:
, `( P- m+ C9 `7 ~) q
! J0 p( G- v5 c; y4 i - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
/ r6 E' H I! e intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ [1 ^! R7 M5 v" I" i home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 K; M6 T! f1 v1 F# }9 w only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ N5 z/ `* `* S- R# w2 D
since about the middle of 2007.4 D5 f& x& h5 c2 \6 [
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 O6 p! I# E$ ?% y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# f* U5 F1 M y$ \) q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 O3 Q! g* k- ^& U8 L
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 ?$ b9 o) i: y$ g0 J8 y( _ poor affordability levels.) l$ l1 Q. I4 O
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the8 Z/ P7 c# Y/ c. [5 M0 d/ S
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. x: Z3 C' l/ W2 T- L: C" @7 ` prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 d. _8 x8 s3 R; T0 p Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 f# \ U- i" b" A% Y8 M' V2 v$ w minimize any downside risks.
( l" D1 v* a4 B. P - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
) R' Q0 ~! U, m9 e conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is3 I8 Y* I8 H) ?# ]) O8 x0 N
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early0 H- A2 H$ r# x- c9 w: o2 S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' m8 o" o$ l( C5 Y. R6 B being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 x5 O1 T" f* e- H - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: |" ~+ ~0 h7 w: L0 k9 @ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% r, a5 q+ y7 f far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% V" r- B7 K. e, H4 U2 u; v! f7 s' k
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ V0 V3 u: t4 a ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
3 N& S7 t. Z: E6 s' N modestly in recent years./ _" X$ ~, w( T; \$ E! P0 Y2 \( l
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ B2 l. e% s W, n* T general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot o6 v0 T; R: X7 d
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, e6 ~" I& o- L" S, |4 F7 B
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* I- \: f' N9 d7 i/ W following two years of deterioration.
7 w6 u1 p* `. X; Z4 a" `: V% a% d >> |
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