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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" k6 n8 F7 Z: ]3 l0 ^ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* p# |# M) ]! j$ N) U' ]: emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ V/ U& P# _( P7 f% j
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* J% U9 @: w2 ?( t! E! v, Laccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 A, j4 _1 o9 x9 i8 {" s$ c; G
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- W% H$ ]! _* w) u1 ^$ X
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 R9 |) ?; Z6 }% f4 M# s8 m yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
( X+ [7 d5 p. i8 Wmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 [9 g6 N' b% y6 w9 d RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is+ L, X7 S/ N3 ^1 v
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,/ i( p) V9 n) |! ?+ d: H9 Y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 L8 n$ p$ S8 f
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; W% U1 S% ?5 ?6 N( w, C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 H) Y# e- W5 {# f" h6 k, |- I
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& s+ E, z" m( v$ Q, z$ N
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 \$ R5 @+ j2 {2 ~( I7 r( _# QAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% [: k+ H8 u" L( v: ?6 B9 A6 `& @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and, }! k3 Q. D% ]: D4 L; [1 R- u
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- R e! ^* y9 P8 O- i" o
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 s5 A* e) t' `2 W
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& a7 H7 j$ i; m n! h
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at- B2 W$ _. e+ e. Q/ u+ U! }8 j, r, O
historically depressed levels.
/ M0 x" j, D v4 D" ? Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
) A' V5 g8 W! L7 l2 L! Wof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) U6 G( i, @+ R, I& q9 Y9 cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the. s/ v0 f' i" v' c, i- \+ \) ]$ p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% x5 ~/ y/ K8 E x ~ L
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' o3 z) n/ R+ _; g6 f* @
months ahead," added Hogue.) R% ^2 u* @/ \0 l) x
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
- u" J1 @" ^5 Y( x @( wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" e* K" c! c/ I% i% L
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 }, |% v0 }5 _9 _- } The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 A( J: S$ C! a2 u- _ I5 \" G. F5 @, k2 _a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 t( e& A8 m4 v0 Z; S: Kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 A1 j' z3 J3 E; ^, E; d0 X
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 D9 ~% B [# Y) y. Q1 t6 A
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 T) ^+ D, @2 y0 F
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 u9 R# K/ W+ r/ }) |4 x2 [benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 m' V" V6 [9 M E- g0 s
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
0 c, f1 q6 V4 u. ~+ n! dcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. L) j- w! a8 i6 E( z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( T, S0 }. X* ^+ r( B. A; A( C" Mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
' d( p5 }; R/ v2 dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 e/ ~+ J# c0 R; \' t9 u
2 a/ P" x! A6 e- g G <<
% S% a! x5 |. s8 V Highlights from across Canada:
7 e, O: f# ]7 G1 v% D5 i2 ^2 W2 U& k$ C/ p. o# {' K: p& J
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has, D, k, _2 ` f, X% d
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 U' f+ Y. E: j
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' M' K3 x6 L% V$ ^& c
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 H1 ~/ |7 ?; J- ]) ]2 b since about the middle of 2007.
# j$ v8 y. ?! m8 ], ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( s, B8 l2 S9 f4 ?: I
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to* k1 a+ V/ L" ?3 ~- B
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% d0 J% {2 S C. L- D largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 x( Z8 V: }, M. b8 V
poor affordability levels.0 L2 T2 {; v# C5 F+ r# h
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" \. h# C- a3 X, T& M" ~% k
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& t/ k3 i! i1 I0 Q1 \8 x6 Z8 @7 `) `8 `7 e
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.+ U% t3 c( n2 ?3 ^) K, R
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 r$ ` m; s; @2 Y6 {
minimize any downside risks.
* k. p- Y7 }! o - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; W) L. z' }0 l* c conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 L: z2 P9 i- Q1 c1 k% K( ~ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early0 ^, S) M, y% n& [4 E. Z4 Q- _- E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: f6 K4 @/ b/ t* l
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.2 x* K% w% W% { d; u2 V1 d1 g! L
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& A' W1 d1 r1 J; e8 ^ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- q/ z$ I4 u: p) K far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 K- D ^& u( @$ y9 A4 i! M/ p
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) Y4 y3 v; A8 r; B
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- y3 H' z( @6 d, L# S) I" s& H: @ modestly in recent years.
8 h1 R; ?6 ?* D0 X - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ b* G6 y9 d5 \" N4 Q7 i+ [+ ^ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ {& g! ?1 X* H5 u6 k# L
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward0 t3 M$ p1 }( A9 U
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: F& u* m8 g7 t following two years of deterioration.
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