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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 W* j! i$ a$ { TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 A1 C: E2 |% S8 g
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
5 M, U: K" ?* U8 Wgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,+ \0 ?, O" u' t, @
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 M8 e. G) M7 Z; B( N "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 l1 i/ }# z g, q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 v: {/ Z/ t9 |; E2 e* Timproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: w. }( h8 i1 y( h ^8 l$ G
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* E" V' J6 \# p( \( i4 T RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
. H- s/ g9 j/ b8 m8 W2 J* Xworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# y; p4 e( M* ]9 awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 Q, s3 v p4 A+ ` C5 I1 `9 Vsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ t S3 j8 n+ o3 v The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 ~) n1 [3 e$ s) Eproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 p6 U0 n* |9 A( h
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; T; t+ V" S5 r5 p% k( CAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; {8 b! N9 ?4 Z/ `8 C8 _
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# F8 I3 ~7 R7 y0 ^8 R8 A
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.2 ]) ?/ q1 N3 }
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 z+ u; ^; n2 N6 A1 ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in6 F' S) U4 ]) h. j4 }+ z! F
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; h9 [' w4 z& r3 P+ yhistorically depressed levels., {6 x/ C; [/ K; q4 ^3 W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 k0 t' V. I1 N- P. E9 J9 Oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 c }! O& z9 B4 _
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ j1 A& O' ~+ c8 h8 g
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This5 y- V4 J3 n! k) ^+ E' |$ {* ~
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the! H. f& q- F1 G- ]% R
months ahead," added Hogue.
* d4 s7 h, N/ v2 N4 V, O0 @& D RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest" c' p [0 { B% d% N5 g
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 Z/ R3 s3 N7 ~0 }9 m42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' a( h& C" m/ x4 _. H. T }
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
/ x2 }, F: T0 M% b& m1 q7 ga broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these V& ?7 A/ O0 I; E. t/ k: x
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ o% @) C: W p/ \takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: h" g& ]! M+ @% R% [7 l
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; Q- _4 M' n( W0 F) S0 G e+ H
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 R- {9 ~9 n' n' e4 Tbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
3 P8 a8 G |. j# Jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
}) } B8 k) Icondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
n+ G$ q& m3 N4 ]6 B' o" N* yFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
; d! U1 q. D5 c1 D4 rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( F& z! b5 C: N, P$ N' vper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( a e9 \7 {7 R" ]- b
3 M0 n2 z# ]3 h0 A0 P8 y$ C
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& i; H! x! g" F: ? \ Highlights from across Canada:0 x2 e4 H9 ^/ e9 s
, I0 j s3 T/ m+ A- A
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has3 B. g" F V3 I9 f( w
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! v2 G: l2 }. P1 K home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ Y0 o! @6 [2 d' U, V: O
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- E5 G8 s4 m/ R' C/ t* b4 z2 [9 k0 e
since about the middle of 2007.9 ]7 w U. g: w3 E
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ R0 F5 C$ j9 @
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
3 w5 N3 h/ o& c3 N/ C# A, o decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 @$ B, n9 \* e largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ G, p# T5 U: [; k
poor affordability levels.
n$ `3 W! H/ i9 N( N! A- l - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ O8 V B* E( c. e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( y. U# A, y/ p& L8 j6 \
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 u2 D) s% W6 h Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- T6 y: z% Z5 k) ^& i6 X/ L minimize any downside risks.
5 e" @- W5 _4 X, K; u9 C - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# C' ?7 O! l. M4 @ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
2 ?+ J" s/ T" l% z unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( w/ E' S8 _: Q: b, u 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 O+ @1 O- H ]. j' D5 z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 f* q3 U: [) Y6 m - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% J b w2 {6 _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* p$ y5 v5 Y( @8 |, _0 K5 C8 h) E far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up. E# e" E4 K* j; F
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* z9 W8 m6 _. Z8 v( W- n ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% U* m3 L" q0 w' t8 a modestly in recent years.' L7 x) [3 X: Y; X7 P8 N
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
, X0 R2 v9 m2 X; m. h general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# ^4 ]2 }( d, ?: ^7 Q( q. B spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) B+ X; L7 C5 r, t7 C! { price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, d; K3 l' Y1 o r$ y1 b following two years of deterioration.9 t1 ~- ~& Z, n0 e: ]
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