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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 T$ q Y) g/ Z3 z. Q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 z4 e6 r( ~( Z( Y4 Fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 T. Z/ O3 V6 p0 u0 {7 \
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,' F9 P( t* p3 `! K# C3 C
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 o7 a+ r3 i. |$ N R; Y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ R& B$ ?. C5 p" Esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
0 T2 G' g1 i/ }; L- }& h5 Rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability! F6 Q+ @% X$ s0 g [* {, \
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, y1 `" i2 Y. b RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: m- c8 ^! J7 G5 h2 t
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ J$ D6 ?& Y7 C2 awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 ]& _ Z: G7 zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., K( G3 x% G3 u. I9 R
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the0 V$ P* B- f9 z/ @ F# [
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( E, @: N4 G) u$ \: O! f5 X8 Ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 Z% w: o: O0 o! D4 k2 X
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
N6 T: c5 k9 K. u$ v9 p- u" I; Dstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ ^9 x+ ~; k2 b8 Mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- D8 Q+ b; j! X" ?4 W6 n% h; Q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ P- `7 x( A2 n' w6 ?0 v: r" Wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- F5 d6 ~" S" f4 Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: Y) I# l, i1 V# X \4 i9 zhistorically depressed levels.
5 g. E( q8 `% j$ K2 f# ~ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 a. o& d8 }/ r$ m1 G& x( Y1 e: \of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& g! } h# n$ Tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 @2 D6 f2 Z1 D6 t5 Y* Mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 d& v1 \0 L: ?9 M# zenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- [8 e) t) e9 Y0 U' e
months ahead," added Hogue.8 L3 p2 E* P0 R4 v
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ g1 i" M1 I1 m$ O4 Hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
, n. V( M4 E# B9 J$ B, V, X0 L42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 b" C. [+ A, `) |. z0 E6 T
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% z, U9 E7 u" O0 V. F
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ ]/ i* Q0 V* z% Y x) s; K# d2 w3 ?
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 C1 L0 b0 |4 P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.! t+ q# n9 d, f# L3 g8 r) l
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is: V4 R* V+ P, I( _
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property5 c$ ~* C+ v. z
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' _$ v, S+ L( Y3 a5 Yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 V! Y& H0 ]- l! q( r- {9 z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
/ Y$ d; s& d- f, j- eFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! G m% A% L5 W- L
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; a+ _ H& ]( _6 p
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 F" o* W2 l, q8 C9 ^; B
% O8 K. E( g: `! ]* E6 P
<<
7 f! g1 H# H8 r Highlights from across Canada:
0 R( u2 G5 b$ X
' {1 S5 ^& v# S/ p$ v) ^) x. G - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 U% \5 s9 b- m7 s7 ~4 L intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
% F5 l4 v3 R6 Y" \* t; i: o0 ^0 D7 t home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' x0 f4 E* ~) V0 F- V( ?' B3 V5 N
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
x. L1 R6 Y- o0 b- @/ ? since about the middle of 2007.
( D3 E7 p) k- C: P8 G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: n: i7 l4 w, ?. \0 y' G
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) Z. m9 l8 ~7 X' A1 o
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 ?. J4 y$ L$ f4 w* b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 N) s, @0 e" }; J* b poor affordability levels.
$ f! D" I* ]4 D) S5 m6 q8 ~9 | - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
/ Z* d7 b. ]1 R3 t2 H vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* `+ v9 U( q2 s/ |/ y2 g+ b- w( m prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
# w" M8 Z2 c# @3 y% U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 x$ i3 [% z1 c minimize any downside risks.- e- ~) m4 E, x# V' Q0 F' g
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, _. R' y* W& ` conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) E+ u" x q4 r' w1 L! V0 i unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# B5 E$ D" g4 {/ y) Q+ s9 H 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' l- p$ N! i& Y' U
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." D$ g# E7 ?: @
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 _1 u! S9 E( j# K7 }+ Q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; _' J' z0 L( F+ s% \1 w far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 a' U9 H5 f# I- W reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 a, ]! H3 i" r ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only% l5 x% ^( c4 ?$ j; \
modestly in recent years.' ~5 h4 i! x2 }# c6 a; `3 Q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
3 q- `* S, k' M6 Y1 H general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- O, ?: b5 F1 u7 Q- a
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 N9 V7 @% B x) x" ~ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability$ r# T4 r1 C) D1 }9 H
following two years of deterioration.
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