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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 |6 z, |; F9 N0 N- G: C0 B TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 m0 Y6 D' C U* K( `/ K: T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% s% r. \$ F. L7 Cgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
5 p" C6 _& ~/ P! q' g# N* ?according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; i% a" T# A+ N: X2 c
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; l# k1 m/ R3 {
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is( p0 A n* ^6 `2 P7 h L, G
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" w6 _% I R7 F* nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; b4 v9 Q1 e/ e! S' V RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ k) f8 n7 \2 n: i8 [
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 ]0 m1 ~/ Y( u* m
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* y* T' M2 A6 q( D7 a& x5 Ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 I' j* e! n" k6 \' x$ P8 N a The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the* v. I: M' R1 J. x" L! F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 \7 A. h: ]8 ~+ g- j7 n
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
i1 K: t4 W. DAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the) t3 b3 m# h0 v7 J% n- L# w9 v% ?# }
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. K2 M! L: h$ xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 r7 G+ R; j& _ S5 A
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets! l' E3 o0 q6 H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in/ P% B! j1 o3 [0 \5 C
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 v; N! O: Y5 V2 ~! thistorically depressed levels.) S5 O+ M0 v& @8 T: W/ w7 G' S
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 e8 \' G) c7 z9 y" m8 h9 @2 ~of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- ^ v8 b7 W+ V" M7 Wprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, J% L) Z# g- J! K4 ]# \' a
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This7 i B1 ?% E" o/ o( `6 a
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, x6 q. ?/ y9 ~2 \3 N* e9 {months ahead," added Hogue.- p' Z, G0 C5 o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 L2 \6 q: n( o# X6 |- v2 @
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 F- K7 s! l% I& }" q
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) ?- U1 ~" h4 t; d+ G& t The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 w( }1 l: M/ y
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# ?& }7 ~- t7 Scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
$ i# k! ^0 ?8 k; Htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ w$ v( N) k# m4 o& w The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is T: _$ z# q3 A# [6 z+ O
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 J9 A8 Q8 @. K$ X: ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% H/ V8 D7 r" m# t: H1 Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) D% b% V0 h6 | V5 _ o
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( Q) a A3 d7 e, }5 |0 a
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 D7 t+ V5 A* ^1 P. S+ c3 T* p' tcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
7 g b6 m* R& G- K* ?6 _& o9 dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 y, X; q7 Z( P
& B/ v' o# v) ^+ y- H' W3 H <<1 y. Y1 `( B% S2 D0 |0 V `
Highlights from across Canada:
. H7 M3 F% x+ t/ _- T
3 f8 A! ]5 k5 _8 o4 X( k& m - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 I! h P% q" K0 K! X
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing* N3 B) q( u4 t9 g; I* w& p
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound. u4 t; r X& z6 U1 D
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 r5 R+ n" |, K! H* N
since about the middle of 2007.
4 R9 r# l, C3 S - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' u5 b! @/ X8 M7 O! A. y% E" E7 W frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 r: M( G7 n/ C0 n decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) D4 B! h7 g. K6 _' } largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* [/ g8 a8 x7 [0 f+ l8 k2 l poor affordability levels." H( w, a# o/ q8 v
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* Q6 G8 \! E; p+ c4 O o
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ G$ ^( K+ l( U- a
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.9 D) A, ^0 I3 f$ _* [
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to7 L4 D1 n+ `2 m: m3 }' V* x
minimize any downside risks.+ o$ h/ t- m* H' q7 j
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, J' B8 E( B) {& F4 t# m conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. ?( m) {+ T, ^- G! g7 R- h& ]0 E unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ ^* j& a# ^, f5 W! T6 C& S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly7 h1 g3 i" a5 S& K4 E p# d/ B
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 M1 x/ f) M. ?* \' ~
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- s0 C8 d1 {+ @ e) c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 P% @) c" A$ ^; E4 Y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up) ~; l* \+ n6 a& a p- i) }" ?
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# R9 m3 |* o4 X% I& B3 d: k ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only0 i4 _& Z5 p, k8 E5 I0 \6 T1 r
modestly in recent years.
7 y4 s3 Q/ p' D; k# B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
3 _, B4 k- l$ g# W- t: \4 x general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ X2 O$ s$ p- Q* u8 s spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& V8 F9 J: T5 k! l5 H
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 D" ]% D0 f8 M4 l7 D t
following two years of deterioration.
4 ~$ i2 P8 e/ f% \+ ]" N/ i4 @3 \ >> |
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