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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
f! Q `: f) d4 f TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the k; @' W& K+ c3 ?2 @
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, ]" Q0 L3 N1 t# d! u
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" f' u, S7 ?# E; U9 I. ?" Raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% E8 Z0 T1 W; w& t" W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# x+ k$ d4 q M, o" |( O$ t
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) n: R. T9 p4 V* j" V; K& o+ Aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, r- v4 l/ g$ D$ M% A; d+ T: H3 i
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- K) I8 T. F" _ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 L7 l/ @& u9 S" \' Vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 h" \- U& c+ ?- ]% J8 Y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ y% O7 K7 X9 d8 @. a3 G
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
3 e N' m, C/ c& n8 W The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ n" }0 B/ R N% S
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 g& ~; }( M1 _( ?5 T- w
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ U& j5 l* y! p* P! q& w- V8 H3 Z2 B
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% K# S: ~/ l, \6 y ustandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 _# J$ D. x# s4 A K) o7 q$ Z+ c6 Cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# h8 C+ M8 T# n2 \# H" D
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 b) n( Y; E9 T' rmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in6 i/ x R$ G% S8 B
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( y! b1 L. K5 U0 ghistorically depressed levels.
& U" ?5 d6 \1 r8 H Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
u: g' A; F0 ^; o) ~' Dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 R" L) b- u9 v8 @prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# q) L8 f6 ?. U
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- {" O1 I' m2 M* d) h' w5 menormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% _+ r4 j R3 k8 G- Smonths ahead," added Hogue.
8 ?( `/ }3 B. s& }& }2 M RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: `6 c' l7 R# hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary3 x3 p# j8 h& M/ ~" _# N. U. F, F0 Z4 {
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 p* k4 z# j/ n9 y% L" r The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ \& \- Y# R! I. V2 J, _& p
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- d" Z' t7 G3 ?* K, P3 K
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- b- Z& e) V: _9 U! \! V/ W# t
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.* q! Q5 Y5 Z5 c" I! n& J3 m, Z! b h
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 |$ R' X; X* y+ r! {( _( x
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
4 w, x' N, r8 a7 R! k5 S/ Fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
; H3 l9 }. C+ m: Y0 e, n5 |including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) l9 z5 Q; v8 D6 T) p
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
- I0 o, Y* `+ `, f5 xFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership1 q" n3 I) A, \
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( W, E& L8 G0 g$ T* e$ _1 j4 uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 Z! f& Q3 P# `/ W, c4 c
/ x) O# J/ [% x9 k2 A: W <<4 B0 ?5 Z6 D: Q* K8 q
Highlights from across Canada:) ^; O9 d7 {; Q4 C% c2 g q
) h, J: k7 X h% E- _, |- s O - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 |' j9 n+ g5 d; G. f. R
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
% m, Q Q# x! r& E! O8 f7 s home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' _0 R2 U4 Z/ w! F* E
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; u D8 S" b- [+ U" L8 Q3 X; l* n since about the middle of 2007.
9 o O/ d" H; c2 p8 C% k - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 b3 z7 z- V. Y. ~ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 c+ g+ V% p7 q1 n8 v; ^5 p' e decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. V% Z8 S' Z7 B. ^' J3 k* x3 v
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ O) V9 z/ Q+ j: E5 e! q$ b" I8 M) k
poor affordability levels.
: D+ W" M8 u3 e- y1 h7 V - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 a& H* I. | g0 _ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and3 g, }. x- ]# R1 c- U) j* ]
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; H. ~# ^1 h+ q7 V
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. V3 b1 A7 N9 R, |2 a7 x
minimize any downside risks.
E" p+ b D, d# L c( U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
6 ~8 E& ?) c' |6 {; W& | conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 s# G k) N# K& B6 u6 T& V& p) |8 @( w
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# P1 Z! n0 T4 Z 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' o$ G# I2 H. R
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' @! f* s, g2 u0 y; w - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in( m& L+ |. w* k5 n% b" _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" H, @0 v- A3 M far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
s# G8 `2 I! C( Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be b$ M. o! Q+ k; W" l* L
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, [1 H- K0 L i' y3 l! h
modestly in recent years.+ Z2 i* }: E, p6 W% w
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% Q; w) `7 A) C C% P4 _0 c general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* m' ], X% ~: f9 i7 @/ l G, P
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' J2 c# {" T: E3 p
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability; M3 w" y# o- |4 j
following two years of deterioration.
9 ~6 W' {& S% f. | >> |
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