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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC , |$ ]. A% h) t6 F1 p$ ?1 b/ k. D* t$ V
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 u# {3 S) o& u( P/ \+ d. O
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" N- x) b& R( s5 F' \
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! u+ i' ~4 H$ _6 d9 F
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.- `" w" U. f# L8 c" G1 ^
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& @2 j/ ~7 t; y' t, @) ]# Xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 O: V/ U1 o/ Q. V% jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability1 ~- R: n, j) ]. O7 l+ i9 `7 M7 |
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" ^* [/ Z& b1 V, H/ \9 I) Z" X
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: @) a2 q9 U ]! Vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 I* r5 A( ~! R! t% Z
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have# B) U X9 I) O/ h. F( u
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. g( x8 T4 L0 [) s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 ~1 m j4 H! q3 ]! v* v$ x
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
8 J: k# \0 j5 c' I- @% C3 Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 J( S7 B4 H/ O
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! z& H3 S! N6 astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and l+ c# L7 L& W
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 ?0 u2 L& _) [
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 z$ R; a: i1 ]; }+ u, k" w' X! }3 \
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; }- J5 b, n* x" \+ { S5 w! A
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( ~/ W; r! ]" O7 q0 E; e# Ehistorically depressed levels.
4 w1 a( ]7 i: ?2 C7 m+ V/ w# h8 q Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 P* m, |2 G- N' H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 Y4 K6 D# K; `( T }6 q1 _. o# E# Xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the9 ~ @" y: _0 z8 k6 s# ^% j
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- t5 h7 x3 T2 Penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ }, {6 }2 _1 Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.* P8 B, V; w' _" J! Z
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 m) W1 Z% w3 n8 S( _/ u
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ F: B6 k! l9 s7 {42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) s G' \5 a, b0 J" z$ }% S1 G
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- F- ]( d, i3 V) w* i b2 Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; p, v( G! {1 o, I5 M
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 O+ I& I2 t8 z0 p& h
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) J8 u, h4 T: p: C$ J* u9 C P
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 R; ~$ Z8 Q7 l# i) [based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! k9 k/ u2 c% |benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ o0 `6 R7 \( U3 [9 g( Q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
0 s; T- M6 b0 Ncondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 d, ^. U: n8 p# K5 G$ H; o* T
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# A0 h* j. W" N
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( q& Q- P1 X6 J. J; i' j& F1 D% _
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# T6 ]4 H. o" e
- Z* N4 R1 F) M4 s% }8 T4 `/ W2 z; x! J <<3 R' h6 X+ ~; G/ p+ C! T; W5 M
Highlights from across Canada:# @; Z) S( H. O' e4 b, d8 r- P" d
6 \- N; r* X3 X6 q' C6 x - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 a* @( r& h: k5 A intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
* t) e3 K+ t, g5 [: f5 J4 r7 h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% O q+ V! R0 r1 y: f/ t only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 C/ O1 Q" o. _ since about the middle of 2007.
0 {* |5 E/ ~# Z- T4 P. m - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the) |6 t8 o$ l" w6 l1 p5 o
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ B; _$ U5 s, k, S3 }
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ E T2 l, e: U; O4 U* z; d2 L6 ~
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. d# [! n* A& X5 Q poor affordability levels.
. A" @' g U3 r. m1 f2 D& M - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
# P7 ]1 p$ i6 P. ^5 e; b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# A; y) j: F" v% i6 o
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( ?$ T3 j9 L) Q
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 f2 Y# a; x5 y" n3 Q. I minimize any downside risks." J* I5 k+ `. l" I1 ?
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& ]& p) F, v3 M- E conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ ~, R z8 r0 X' }2 _, G7 x& H; t2 B
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 o: i: c2 x" D 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# c8 A3 I) F6 U8 L5 [9 I
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& A2 L& o! l7 H" ~& b* f
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; Z8 ~$ S/ {# V2 T; f \1 f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 p* {: r' \5 D5 s: Y* y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ o; B6 p2 }" A/ C! ^. `+ u3 ^/ J3 Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ F! J# A: ^. s$ L5 ~ W- y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 s+ I- w: ^6 p6 {, d
modestly in recent years.
9 W+ K. b# K3 b& i0 @ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
. L3 }# A6 T7 h' p8 T general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 Z) r1 Q( J0 ]
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
# x2 \, @+ j* Y% j price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 f' h) Z) `1 V
following two years of deterioration.' s( X/ X4 f- m$ T# ]
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