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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; |! \2 F* J1 `2 |6 m' Z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 g/ ?3 n- M5 U2 ?middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ P7 N( ^' H' z2 E4 }7 Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 n; A7 e5 X3 A, Q% S+ oaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.7 i. F. A5 Q& h: T4 G
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ _' V/ r: @2 f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
8 \ L& D. I1 R' g8 @improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) v. {7 d. W# f1 j
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) O: ?7 l4 g0 b( ~( Q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 f3 N; b9 u2 aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 D/ R Y: o, |6 i3 ?which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, p- M9 c" k6 bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 g- Z. K# A% @6 E( @; V
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 m7 y5 ]* t9 x0 _+ v
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( w$ _8 o" i5 yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; U0 _- {1 W* ~
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& U9 Y) t8 J$ K; |standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 o' S9 o" p; }
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.) d! D& T$ L2 A& `( r) K
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 \# J, ?1 I$ \+ r* h1 S
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' X) I) B$ M$ N5 M1 i4 z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# x( O& G1 z3 s* ?2 Uhistorically depressed levels.
1 `$ w# h7 Y; C, w, a: Q! _7 s Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 t4 t6 g' e8 X" Y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ L/ b: u7 G/ Y3 t) nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the9 O" \5 o5 W9 l! L" ?
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% q, t6 p e; `; ?& y% h1 h# f4 Jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 V; G' c$ |; i/ h! i
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 \6 _- g+ g+ v9 z7 v8 B) P RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
y0 ]7 W: `) o2 t- s6 q D+ O: scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 u2 X* A, s3 v' [. [! u
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 {! T! U' D7 J5 G* m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 @+ F* i ^6 J; b$ O8 A$ [$ W
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
; {- M& A7 t( U+ y4 {, o, @cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" I/ n& S. d; }takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) X7 K6 {8 q. b# _4 K The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
, B z' |' B: ~' ]' obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ h& E! z8 j+ c5 t% O4 F5 e- H( i
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 e4 n8 k6 o2 |* z/ n+ A+ n: F" j7 b
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 H. m& D, d2 _) u! I
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
- c! v! z( U9 Y* s/ V- YFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: R; `( f9 F7 ~- K8 M
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. H5 F' Z. f0 @- D1 f
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
: \- J& z$ a) G, W- O7 }% }
6 {! [+ p; p, t$ h <<$ X. H# y3 U8 U$ L+ ]5 Q+ Z a; s# o
Highlights from across Canada:
6 c% m I g9 D4 f9 _' C- G' ?8 P5 h! N' l1 u3 I4 B/ O+ n
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
; H3 @* ]+ M6 K0 i, k intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing s' u( \ ^- \$ m
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% I* W1 |) ^6 B. y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! V1 s. R6 A$ S) b5 q( Q
since about the middle of 2007.
; u- |/ E- ?5 D; T- S* [& i( Q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
9 l3 ?5 q( I- `( G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
: f: a$ w. O+ F2 p; A3 j$ G decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 J! U! z+ ]$ F y% S
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
5 n) Y0 x5 }9 T( g9 ? poor affordability levels.
7 ~' g! O+ b) L) q/ M7 G# H - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ H) X$ ~7 T0 I% ~5 ` vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" q- X9 T0 u5 ]: N4 b% R0 A0 o prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ R- F% ]! ]- z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* u9 ?2 S4 X) i9 {9 Y7 m- R- M
minimize any downside risks.
( Q$ T E! b# C& f - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ p7 l, ]; u8 ^- L( t- _$ K
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is' F- s/ m9 }, W% {1 y- Z3 a ^- a* U
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: ^0 ?2 q4 _* W3 f# a2 d- R6 O 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ q) P" q8 ~6 n* i3 p& t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% e5 X# e* @# r$ C/ c1 K9 @ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& a* G. g9 B+ m* C- l. T) ~1 t Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus" A9 Z4 u1 Z. J7 A
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up; z) Y$ m/ g2 j
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
1 _: n. @3 I7 Z+ @# r6 q# I ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; b, L3 D: `9 j+ q8 ]8 }
modestly in recent years.
' }* d5 F! {$ V. a# ? - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the3 g$ x% V: S5 H! i7 y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# M, a( f0 E: l* m
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 b3 h" } l* E
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- S; a. z! ]! I" X2 B following two years of deterioration.
. t0 A- b, g e# u" t2 D >> |
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