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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . ]3 U2 {: `% D: d0 k: c: M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 K* ?# K8 `, g! f: [8 e9 P
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& b. N6 i- w w5 [9 L: c, R
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! W' ~$ n0 c$ {0 f! G. i" ~# ?2 U, Kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.9 u" K$ A: p* }! S
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 X' ~0 M# G( j1 t" s1 z% a4 {! H2 ^said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ s6 m6 E! e- i" R5 A: Z, U1 zimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability# ~+ V: Y7 c) f8 m
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
l( \+ A3 U8 b& m" D0 A3 m Z1 V- w RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 \# g: T3 a% K! I2 a4 hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) t. E1 y$ W5 e* d, \
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 y, e7 c/ h/ K3 M' O0 }6 qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' c1 |" Q9 k2 A9 ?! F! h$ F2 J
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! B( Z( q% B( g# yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" g. G$ E, Z# T' l, h/ F
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& S& A' O- Z" z. D& J) X+ Z2 X' ^
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 Z5 ~1 _1 P" S
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 a; M0 [* J/ ^( y# O7 xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.1 C# U, z. c; r. ^4 ^' l3 m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 I# G7 j+ n" e d
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
; t' W+ I% [ P7 \# L Gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 P) c2 b. s. g) q3 Y; u
historically depressed levels.. A9 W5 {7 p* |" n) K
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
) O1 U5 H/ n5 P- C5 e* U6 [of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# e3 {0 P0 f9 v9 Q# h; _5 y
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! a. }4 p0 m" A# i; o! i% x) ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# [1 a% |$ T5 J1 d$ Henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& B; k3 H8 j Q: A8 f" b* tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
7 L: c3 }2 \' R1 z/ \5 l ?& w RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
" F6 p3 j# U5 dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) w. p! t9 B, p% c& g4 c' l6 Q8 f42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 N+ H! B& x: f
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
/ i6 _7 c3 s1 sa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
, j" U+ E$ |( i2 Y& J3 h4 e; icities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 g0 J |: E! m9 Btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
7 q5 \! q2 m2 E3 J7 c# q+ N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 h4 v$ q4 W2 ~" v0 m% V; e
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' x* N8 J3 R' R0 _5 x: Y% `$ k
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ z- W0 Q) R4 Y4 V4 T/ m9 a# J& J9 Gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
1 o, k) J& f' I i, ycondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* C( `. B5 }& t) x+ q( s0 q
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership y- g9 {4 z: S3 `) I- ?8 X% j
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 h+ u' l3 C. v; W$ Qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ J' k5 H [% S/ @5 W0 s T' M) N* W4 s; x
<<
9 I3 w% Q( q2 `$ ~# C6 M Highlights from across Canada:' \9 _ o8 g0 y$ z5 |
9 L6 e( e$ t! z a
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 O7 ~, n- g9 k- Y" K- N intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 K) {' i$ s9 L' f) V7 g( h K home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound, {. t( C: O1 N2 g: E, l
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 a: d. s+ p; L- l' D5 u since about the middle of 2007.
8 ^7 ~% `; u& f - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 E1 g! G% t! d: t4 n# H frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 E- u& H* e. S/ a
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 J. i6 P5 M7 M; y- G* u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: f$ m1 b9 T+ s! \. s3 d poor affordability levels.- z7 A1 y" Z+ _
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
2 ]8 u0 l0 L; M7 T5 c7 q/ h vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# k0 r z6 H; I+ e4 f7 s1 X1 l
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 m: }7 d9 T7 {+ K a9 Q5 z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ U! `% W# k& K minimize any downside risks.9 i: U* h9 e( {/ p* E
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! M4 L; R5 ?2 |* J6 |" o9 ?6 i conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 I4 \9 t/ b/ d9 E2 }; x4 ^4 @7 l1 `
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 C2 O& G; m9 t
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; |% n9 G+ k& U6 j" ~4 \4 _0 O being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& N; C! X6 u# K- ^ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 ]# s' W& ?9 f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ R" T$ t, {. [( U7 Y
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# e9 {; v: Z( o8 T- ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
& H: N+ S; w% P/ U ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
}7 e; Q8 `7 e; |$ }% l modestly in recent years.
6 b* ?- o% n! a' R* ` - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 ?4 o% b: B+ }3 @; y general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 a& j* P% p* u8 X d! x
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 Y6 s* o3 E, f1 e price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- n' k) r! s7 B following two years of deterioration.
4 `" W* Q2 u8 a% I9 k k >> |
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