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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% b& [5 {' M- z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 O+ o% T- A7 Q& t* Qmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive0 {% m: T4 Z0 |) e$ T4 ^
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( ^1 Y r$ ^! L4 _2 ^4 c6 z4 kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. g" s ^0 I! h9 W" z& y' G+ Q3 X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 m( I$ b" D" ?9 ^ c7 W* ^said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- B9 A) d& e5 p$ w$ b9 aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- X1 }$ a C% W* h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 n B/ z2 W2 h. U& ?; [ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 D: o! L, j j/ O8 _8 {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' ^. O4 }( b: y0 y2 K5 o9 L
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 A: B2 `7 B) M! k9 l
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( n! U* [' E1 [) H R' [% G
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the; F, W# D4 H" L2 L% z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ [1 @# ], u$ O3 g! w+ ]0 f% t, E
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
Q, Y) Z! X' p9 t) X" M8 _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; k, Q, D5 f& I, U( pstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) H* |5 [5 x0 d5 \- X9 k
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ |2 l8 t3 T9 w+ }7 U* l According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ X- \ R0 [% o) i( [may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 C4 V. _8 T8 nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
0 N8 F- U2 d' O k. y% ohistorically depressed levels.
?9 r |! C' [1 \, g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 o$ G' M3 x& u1 M/ lof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 o; B) n1 [3 E! u5 @) a, Kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- G' I z3 U0 E$ [$ f( Bhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This) f( f* I2 C/ ]1 k, o
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the8 u2 ?$ j4 e! s; u2 |
months ahead," added Hogue.5 c! I6 e' H8 H* d
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; t+ U; L h* A- |2 z" y0 d2 Bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: k5 E C4 ^3 a m42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.2 c) X" W& ]2 j# y. q1 E" V1 A
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* `1 {1 C9 K- C T% za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& k/ N& V; ^( e- d) I: H+ Fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 o- G; Z) u9 Y% j1 H, X* dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.4 M. U M8 `" ?
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 X0 b( a* i. r. Z3 O
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' `+ T# v9 i$ ~! J5 f
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
- t4 ~# g8 d- p) b4 @8 J6 I( Vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 M% I5 m: R3 w# d$ [4 q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* y, O2 J+ s! R2 {; X! `: IFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 J# R+ h5 J2 @3 L6 V" _3 H0 C/ ?costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, }/ H4 E) q4 D7 y* k5 f: |# j w+ F
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 x1 F: X: E/ w4 E* J3 Y* F2 j2 C- K6 O, T
<<: Z) A* h3 N) ^% _: C
Highlights from across Canada:6 Q" Y5 ^5 T' J2 }
- F: Y7 C/ r! o
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 Q& A$ k' T) u6 w8 a
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
/ S: Z' Z* g8 }4 p: f+ L) { home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 J( t) |( Z2 }7 c
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 \! V7 J% _& i since about the middle of 2007.5 s7 V4 g$ V3 X( F E
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 m6 _; T# D0 ^% v; O3 e U% h2 S frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to* ~1 `$ o- V, i+ r( u
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 M/ v: I- i) X$ s) E6 { o! j
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. q K, ]# N9 N6 ?# j. l9 A. x
poor affordability levels.4 |4 d2 O f9 C2 _
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* e3 ^4 F' k) c8 n p O4 e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# @+ K& }$ `* Y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 h2 I: v8 E# N5 i Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# s+ D; ]# W1 h minimize any downside risks.7 {/ h6 M0 s/ M. f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# C( T- ^9 s0 j) I9 Z) J2 x8 i conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% F% [) {/ q$ t# I3 b unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. ?" K9 G# U S5 x, A
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- ^+ j$ `2 B' |* U: x0 M being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) F2 J# t/ J$ n
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 N' L+ W4 E1 U0 j E. i
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# H' u3 x& C) @% ] far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 x5 |& Z8 j5 e7 t* M+ Q# ^
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; _. S* ~( [7 N: o3 J' w, c* J
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only q: S# \+ K D8 X, T4 l* M
modestly in recent years.) m& J. s4 O3 D
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! _* a; {7 {$ L, L' v
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot. o" I% p) m/ k# `, N! }9 T; v0 y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( c3 \! _% G; P9 X
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 e' v- r4 H ?, S4 s following two years of deterioration.
4 B- ?4 `7 f. M >> |
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