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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * Z( T+ J+ f6 \4 a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) L, e% c. ?( C+ l6 W
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ @: _6 [1 U' R7 U) W9 s* l/ i Hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- }( \; ^8 N% s9 [, g
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* O! u! F/ \4 c6 f2 { "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 d" j% S# w8 B6 ~& U; {) [- c% [; l/ V/ J
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# `4 B- @% g* p6 `' G/ Mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" s- R- B0 C* | Nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ l0 E2 Q, ~. x; {4 E7 O$ h RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- V/ ^ l# T, I# H0 _: ?worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
( E( n) P$ M, s8 l1 Vwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have* P: ]' v; p4 L
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 c Y9 q+ B& I0 G
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 W' K; e* s, Q# l- ^( Oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ b2 B' F- l* o8 Z. p9 Z" Z
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 n* o) K# r* i6 L
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 R/ O1 D( v6 G: t/ d$ c9 D2 f& mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( n( `7 u& e6 q+ W
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
6 ]9 N8 q) a4 L' m* o According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ Z; J4 J3 V+ c! D* _ `, O- pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 j4 f1 N3 C) L2 T4 t
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 F0 N7 d# o& p$ W1 ?
historically depressed levels.* h( r* j: E, V9 }1 F6 `* Y9 B- w
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& q `3 v9 f' E* u! W
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 W/ g! r u; u- Z% l) \4 |' n1 dprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 D" J4 h0 ]9 [. R5 Z- @
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' a1 t$ D% h6 M1 v+ n
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# {- e* ]+ f5 {& a% r% _# v' Imonths ahead," added Hogue.
* x! H$ m5 y/ \; j RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 \5 p' z' u( P6 W( Y
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 f+ p* R8 @. j42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
i4 u% x9 B9 q& o The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
, r. A: [7 a& B0 B) `; Ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 o+ `- K1 g( E+ ?% W+ _. M
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
* @$ T3 D; \# a" r/ ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 i. s- Q) i; E0 |% y+ w R" ?5 ?
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
p. Z, S1 Z! g' a' `9 ^based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* r+ S& V2 d4 K& A7 Q) _benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ _/ L2 C6 }) o9 D0 \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) L( ?9 s% U: M% ~- g7 tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
9 A! q, L: p" s7 C, O7 ~For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' ]( g2 z& G( L) ?costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; Z' ~- r- n( @7 k- P' ~1 T" uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 a* u9 r# b1 t m! @! j
: ]9 r8 r" Z% L' ?3 Y# S1 V( H$ } <<
5 b) ^) n$ _, H9 f Highlights from across Canada:
$ [' D- c) P7 w3 O" h# D; V1 V4 n; R9 V
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has, H# V Z/ L9 s7 u5 A* K1 P
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ C2 f. ^9 O5 y" {7 ~8 U4 S% h, Y
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* g* \$ p" _ X* d( P" S+ I only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' J! j0 U2 o) |6 o6 G
since about the middle of 2007.
& }) O5 g ^5 f' Q! d - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 \- g* s/ ?$ g( Y G! ]0 H8 h* Y( Y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; x$ C6 H+ G( ? decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 v( Y# Z, |, Q& y* V# e
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely/ \2 D8 l" }) [9 i% t# w
poor affordability levels. D# a2 }9 t/ q
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
; H0 E. D! E" h3 K9 @ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 v7 ?0 _! T: v( [9 e' { prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- `) K9 [6 n- V6 r$ n+ `# W Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) H+ o& t8 }( |8 K! K6 [$ M6 U
minimize any downside risks.; d+ `; |! f* n' x
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
t+ h" E. D, r1 g conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; F: @/ m; k' ^8 l- O unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# q6 d H0 m% z/ [9 u$ r. J. i
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 }" i( q" k) ]
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 `" {$ O& T3 p3 k# i' k& Z+ n: M
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; B' x, w: O: H9 K' a: v Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 c( C0 f$ o! r0 u$ G3 s far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 @+ t1 ^ t! x3 V3 _
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be% c! Y$ I: l( R& |: K. X2 E
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only/ A" [" j8 A0 I. c2 b t
modestly in recent years.
8 d1 a* E" R* l: r6 b* w - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, i4 f- s; n9 g5 b# y) B
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! R" l# i- p" V8 b# i3 I
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- x. H# W# a, ?: z+ O
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 j; c: `; H! T3 H/ E" @ following two years of deterioration.7 m* n3 _& s& \1 Z0 u
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