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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : V) K9 [9 Y! \
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
$ F, t5 T+ Y* H' B+ Q dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 i: [& F. k; L% A0 ?gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,% V8 H2 u& b; A2 i K( C9 K4 o9 q" O
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ D J' Q, d" Y5 h4 z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 j7 P1 R) s; a$ b
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! R, E) V1 d! K' Gimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability l- m* N9 J, L1 |2 \
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."' K, W1 n9 k. r6 ? Y1 N* c; S
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 G# Z$ G8 l) x2 I7 l& B1 e% A% Rworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( p# Y" X# o; a5 j' x7 q* f
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% v8 D# `* f% ^( m6 q3 |
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ H! I. P! @6 k1 [: I) N# H5 `( a The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 ]& J* l7 q2 X5 c/ r% y8 g
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ H/ b" e5 p1 u( W
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) I, e, r& |8 d) j. W
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 @0 o3 z0 v* t& m; xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 @0 e; f6 {& d7 V
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 U8 `9 S! o- S1 `4 p8 n
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ F, A. t; [5 Q/ h! o7 R; E* @ |# Q/ ]may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in/ i$ d% o9 U& G: h8 W g# r
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- j* o' n+ ~& p# v* u* Rhistorically depressed levels.
/ L4 q2 } Q6 x* S3 Y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) K. X( X2 @7 r; I1 o6 r# W
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) a/ a U1 p+ h( sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
) V+ ~" y' E$ U' x, f% vhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% y! y3 C1 b& T* D8 b1 Fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* A' U! Q) i9 F3 C. M# W: H A( Bmonths ahead," added Hogue.
4 [* y+ P& V) l0 h: v RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. g" [7 G, B4 c% M7 p; s2 z/ o
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) _1 s/ r' v; Y+ m, X2 i- P
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' T' V0 ^0 H" s* b4 e1 w+ ^
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 p# b6 D- O3 X' Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
0 ]# f- b0 Q& [ }- acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- x6 X, i0 P. f( W1 W
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 h8 f! |# F, S9 [1 X; e* b0 w S The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 z1 \, H% O9 H: L6 O' e [based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& d) n8 P5 G+ d" Abenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: d: }* R2 ^2 ]/ S9 K! g5 pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ A; M6 F" r9 @1 ?6 q" Y6 n
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. p8 G+ x4 y7 h" W* S, z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 Y+ b' c& d. l R3 Q$ C/ Hcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ a/ F) d0 E X; f, p5 u- }, |
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 } a9 v0 o9 W9 \( r1 U
% W; N8 d0 S5 y' B( o% s; r5 b <<
' S" ~0 Q" a, P& Y( V+ L: _3 m Highlights from across Canada:" D/ F' m o5 w7 i0 I
; J6 V- c9 C) ?9 @) w4 U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" ~8 M: I4 l3 j' d G+ ]* o intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. s( O* ]2 t, x# R. s home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 K0 \0 F( W) `% _
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# w3 r# w0 r: L$ n since about the middle of 2007./ e5 o* p) }# @( f9 R5 h
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 `# F8 c8 v7 e1 D
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ q/ F4 h3 u2 W
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& L6 {* F) S, x3 K- N largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ c4 W+ j5 B/ j( R) P# C6 v poor affordability levels.3 r, I0 e! [' V# i8 l
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 Q) @' ?2 |# H8 J. u/ H
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 f- Q' T6 E. D, I prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 M5 A. [- F) {; J5 Y& f Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 i. P2 z1 u. b8 x( }" O0 m2 m/ x minimize any downside risks.9 T' F' x* ]4 v" @& G/ r
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 L$ J' l( y, X5 t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) \6 G+ c! H0 V6 l% I* R
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 l- s0 d. h( X" f 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ [! X: B# D! D2 v1 G0 I being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., y8 P. p: g. ~/ P3 D# f, U
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 `' m9 u9 F0 e; g6 M Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! l6 m% D+ S H) _: V3 ^- F
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: T7 O0 l; B- i# Q* p7 G ^ u% w
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
0 [% H3 m' ^' z7 y' `& b$ F ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. `. v' e4 d0 V% S9 t
modestly in recent years.' A. x' Y# F/ `( \4 T$ e* H6 P
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
3 ?1 n4 h2 M, A- {0 u7 G: H general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ g2 a) Q7 M1 \4 u7 g+ y) x: l: f
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ m ?/ X6 ?8 T$ q& N price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- J+ v1 Z6 A* r9 \ following two years of deterioration.- {9 r9 d2 t( z8 N. ?2 w' {
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