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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 R- l3 t$ n4 C: x! t- s; o! n) I$ ^+ W
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 J# M# v/ ?0 s; ?' n2 D( o
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive z5 J0 d3 u1 h2 \' e1 J
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# n9 G: {* t0 X
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: ?3 W# Q$ N/ I; d" l: {6 `
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( o" {+ Z+ D+ p8 ], C, o1 {6 o9 Z- J
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- K% m M' J$ T U5 t: g
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
$ W) ]- \/ u5 L1 z& R$ j/ nmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 l) s* I, Q( s* l8 V RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ I$ Y, d" d* w, |5 M0 uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% v- |% I5 L6 @) n. r: \0 E, ywhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- h6 v# b) L2 W6 c4 _4 {: q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, \0 `, u5 O; A. D' q The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, \! w9 I3 O+ k, o' O2 X
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 S. M4 j5 f6 {& p/ x7 u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., h6 w# a& H% j9 S) i2 G
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. b5 c$ j" ^+ L3 T
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 u: _& w6 |8 r3 P) uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; z8 \' v2 D N+ {% y9 ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ n0 ?( g6 J+ |! P
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in \- b! Z7 O, d$ K
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ B- E* [6 b7 @$ y
historically depressed levels.
+ ]. b3 A5 t, I8 `# D- E/ m Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ o+ [* ~/ M; oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! m& d2 p7 W! i8 C
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, H" i+ Z* A1 n2 lhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 W/ M, x/ n" H( t* k+ S
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ U/ t% \" q. O. P. {" Emonths ahead," added Hogue.
1 N7 ]+ G& `; k RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 o& z3 g' m7 j8 a, i1 z, A- R- j6 u$ qcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary. \& z! c1 r- F# [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.- O; z% Q }4 A# m1 L
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 h& Q8 b2 E5 `0 Ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
+ c1 O9 j4 z+ bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 n5 D) D) U* B: R- A, }0 m! ]( Gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.$ W# m7 T9 ~# k
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 E( L, q& i+ P$ v; P g" e4 ^( j
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
# q$ e+ R0 ]+ v& |" L0 obenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented9 P# N! v. P W
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 c6 {5 m! Z+ ], c# L8 L. x6 U7 |
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 k7 V; W1 Q( r' ^For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) Z2 x% j5 h& E5 X q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ f- z! _/ w$ w' S; H3 H. ~
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 O6 ^6 U3 ^$ X
+ }3 |5 [" c. L8 I4 m6 ?$ {4 x' c <<
: {6 ~ A: I d9 x# p5 I Highlights from across Canada:
`* a. T, P, a' T! d( J' A7 ]8 E3 z% j4 C8 [- g* M1 y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 R! m: ^$ ~3 ]9 t intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 w# n+ \9 B$ q3 a home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, g( Z! W1 q' ?9 D' u1 e only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) U. |4 E+ x/ _) ] since about the middle of 2007.# g ?1 |, d9 ^- z2 Q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 z" G; d k; e! r" |
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 C' p. u3 {* b; N, i( h9 |# e
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. p& A% v( |+ k* y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' p0 n% N1 G) G, ?7 @- h poor affordability levels.
# F0 q% L; J4 w, _ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" c7 h+ j- U. g! k9 m9 M
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ D2 h; p4 r0 f4 O" w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
6 U! \& u7 B- b3 D! `+ I/ s Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- Y- G6 z8 ^: C" n# y minimize any downside risks.
6 E H3 I( a; T/ ]( P - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ |. D5 \/ h9 `( R" R+ `6 S4 j
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 N2 b! V( |, S/ P6 l5 Z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 a& h# N6 t' ]# y- ? k# L 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 M6 G$ [3 S* P. w0 ?' g being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.6 ?8 a# E/ u' o. ~ `
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# @+ P4 D; J" z& L) t& W Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
: B X( M7 t" w far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 j/ q6 S0 J% T( Q( W: u reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" @ J$ _# j7 @/ `, W! e0 u- M7 n ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 `5 F" w, D9 X1 h2 Z modestly in recent years.
/ X) Y4 i1 ?8 i7 ]3 \3 p8 B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( s! U, e: Z3 {0 G" ` general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
- l& Y# E# A! b8 p; G spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* y; H; e1 Y* N! m6 `: \& W price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( a& O8 v7 [% I/ H following two years of deterioration.0 l- ?6 P z8 h3 _: H& s. x
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