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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- s+ b2 I1 a7 l8 G3 a$ P TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, v1 Z. u( N6 m# q2 M8 j& Imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive Q7 P1 `1 m/ k3 M4 _1 b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 G ?8 u3 |: O# R( f2 D4 faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.7 I* v5 x) o7 V% C7 D4 O
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
. u; M( @, W! y1 U/ ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! [/ \$ [2 }4 {* f* @8 W2 I2 x
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: U* C }2 M6 v' {0 s1 G# |- h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."6 C0 Q4 F' u& M ]4 l: ^
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; f, @ {& U1 J# Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 z, b; J7 j0 r; f! k# u( l
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. \8 O2 @, i) j6 V- y3 Msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* H' d4 Y; a" q+ r+ g% ]
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- [4 {# r% h- y% J+ q+ Fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, @/ R+ _' ^/ R' o
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ b4 E, m- f6 d0 M9 H. h
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- t9 a- l: q0 R( O! q/ T
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# W6 M: U; _: D* k
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 h2 ]0 i& @# [4 Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: F6 f0 E0 Q! `may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
' z, _( @& \7 F0 Bthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at: _& e) u( o7 B" N0 {+ j! ^* ~- S
historically depressed levels.4 L `1 v) }9 c2 [& f
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 i0 U9 A. g" D* w8 [
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House/ Q8 Q- z% ?4 E/ K/ f
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( `/ l h1 Z6 C/ W6 x9 s6 `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# Z5 k3 T5 k. `6 m: x7 yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 N' R- V/ z0 b! Y6 M* `months ahead," added Hogue.& F" L. C9 j" q/ B) R. P/ o. l
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 i7 c {" L! s! bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& |4 P( j+ ]5 t* I/ S8 O6 g
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 t( D, [( b# e/ e" `: y9 d7 G
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for ^% N9 R& _ n) ~ V9 ~
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
0 [) Z3 A4 H$ y* G- R$ Dcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ p9 i$ h/ a6 A5 P+ i! X2 p2 i/ @; U
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' A. a, e T/ f3 c2 L) @
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& R& I- d& Y% W# t/ y3 F$ T' ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property- X q3 k0 u; j, h9 O: z& I7 c
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
- B. f+ `7 _$ s" [" A0 zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ M7 |4 y! U& Z+ Z- P' E$ @condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
+ M6 K& E' V/ X( i6 k9 R6 vFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 X$ |& H. U+ ?# Q; p, y) Mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, T" q% S9 u; ^9 ?. t' c- v8 R* {/ Hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- F$ t" ^ c+ m& n' e# l0 I2 a. i1 P( K. L" {0 V+ J
<<1 l5 R& T" v: s8 L# m
Highlights from across Canada:4 w7 f1 G8 P) [
. R* V, Q9 w" K9 G% ~ Y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has# d/ F3 S$ L$ U3 a" q: V
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# `* z( N% {% U6 Q) [5 k# z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 x* v5 i# o" [3 _% }. P2 R
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 [& d9 w f R; _% T: T5 z since about the middle of 2007.
1 E( p' V8 p0 w P - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" Y( s9 z* k9 S" Z0 @3 D frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 p8 V' l9 N2 O" f4 L, J; v0 }
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: Z, W% K+ o; X9 v' x) W# N* v6 w
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& n7 T8 K4 |: u! l poor affordability levels.% q1 Q8 B6 J( I, c( [7 H
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* V/ V7 W- j; I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and! d$ {2 ]. r3 v
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.. M, w8 i0 C! {. L" x& Y" G
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' s7 T* l j" ` T. S
minimize any downside risks.
: L9 v1 a1 |8 r3 @) [. a; `! T - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& ~- k9 \7 L6 c A; u" z9 C conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; R- }, b6 v' u* e" O1 Z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ r. h; c* x9 Z. I 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" d9 `8 I9 ~* y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
! l) O; g3 B1 V* A - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ s2 X4 d+ Q! X
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus: t& q) @7 R; `! }/ H2 ~3 j
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ ^9 x M- X' b/ O
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# A z* @# k& ~1 Y# L$ V# u* N) x# x' z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* ]9 M2 `* ^6 U u modestly in recent years.; K, O; O Y- r# U# z+ O8 o
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 j. ^5 t7 V5 X$ q1 v% f
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 n: o1 b ?, o( p6 {4 e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
U7 x1 _" N- c, u1 y0 e" x$ c price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 f8 F! @# {: g7 q* E2 z following two years of deterioration.
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