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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 J0 b% q6 ~) x/ r
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- h8 H8 i% @ j) k1 pmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) s) {7 K3 U2 h+ W6 Ugains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 q+ A K& \6 ~5 _1 paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. o# A$ d a3 w9 O+ R" p
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! N( j9 I% T' ?* h. @6 F
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 F/ U% q* e& Q& M% f! V8 ?" H
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ b" A5 ~9 v* ?* F; O. ]measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
$ T- L! X- j" K3 F6 c" @5 M4 x RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ q8 E* m! B, b3 O
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 D# B# J7 |+ ]0 p4 k# awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 b* ~& G( k: d G
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 e' W8 b' |9 g8 F2 A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# s& V2 w3 W) P! J, Aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! ~6 u, r; S* Q, n& S4 c
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., J* r& Y0 S; v: C* Z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( \$ F9 o+ Q4 B6 ?# n, G& qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
1 p* M) N$ {4 |& A/ V2 j8 y/ Othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, k3 [& Z- n3 k2 ~8 d According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 W! V. G) K( P6 D$ N, o
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 s# L) M6 C3 _1 {
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
2 H( L+ @. u! ^5 X; ohistorically depressed levels.
Z1 U" v. t. [/ F Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost W! e3 a8 R* L4 ^* l1 O$ x
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 v2 I) P- k: G6 ^" `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# J/ T( K! ~$ b% k' M& q' s
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& Z5 `+ H0 W" v! P6 v3 u( Aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% G$ a! l4 z0 p% ~; f3 Q5 p1 B
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 g/ [& S) g3 r- _ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! [9 U9 M: ~5 h0 ?cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary j# f6 |- s6 _4 K) [3 E
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ P& C5 r6 ^% c9 ?; R: ^3 L. s The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: }7 T. e1 m) V4 u R; X9 t, ha broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* t6 I) y6 \& ]9 d8 B; T' x5 Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only2 T" P# y9 `. |4 M2 b% E
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: t% @0 d+ h3 C! ?* v The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
0 A. b" C+ k; ?based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) s y% W3 \" Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: H& h/ x( I i i) Bincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
% v& C7 H; ?3 @7 x- _) _$ [condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. _, _! ^- b; o0 a# n
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ T' T/ |( U* a) W4 R+ W. T$ _1 Jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% P, ^' \' `7 B# b0 Z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& X4 c$ n, L/ ^, Z: @ K( U' E- F; H4 Y% m p/ K
<< H+ n1 c$ h- T- H$ e$ @6 g T6 ^
Highlights from across Canada:
. {- \( ^+ f" {. S7 {2 Y; C5 U# j, {0 q
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) ?8 y- D4 l) N7 Z7 @
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! `4 O$ B" } @3 u home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- N0 G2 j) X T2 e4 N( D. i
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 E, Q" t( T- R2 @" E; h
since about the middle of 2007.
# {5 u; P o! {, j# ~ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! D4 p2 c1 V% k( o' _ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
6 d* o- W+ c2 l$ o @% T! X$ V* s decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 y$ U* n* z- M
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; W4 I7 }/ k, i# f* q poor affordability levels.
" g. |! l( z1 ~8 I0 l) E - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the7 V8 i2 H; ^9 }/ ~
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: l8 Q: B$ I3 `9 y" g prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 w+ e+ D& z, L0 F
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ g0 u; F0 `+ `" ]- a8 U
minimize any downside risks.3 z* V* S, ]5 y" Z1 |
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 o4 q/ e. R; I- x9 [; [: G; V
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! r; N4 m1 t& ^% `# k) F unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ b% P5 [# v. S0 T0 ^$ Y3 b( C
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* e' x4 g* E& B' f& g* y0 X& w being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; E# N! p M- P+ y2 e6 W
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* D. j2 {3 G% P+ { T, F/ l Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# }( {) b# v+ w3 `
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# A& V: m6 N- `- v reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) s9 g3 ^) R* Z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 Z, c l* H% N) _: o modestly in recent years.8 |7 ]" p5 Z6 I+ `* t% E
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
8 V) k6 c7 M; L" O b6 V general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 L9 M7 v7 }+ O, w
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' U5 N5 _( ^( M
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
' @. [+ G2 j8 p1 h following two years of deterioration.
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