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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
" z: t( T5 w s' s$ C8 V TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' L* ~ l! u: V; Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive+ |" [' x5 S0 W' Z& S0 u
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 W- L# t* T$ @3 [3 w1 |& raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
4 O7 |! R" B9 n( q$ u! j$ n "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; e8 e( H7 O+ S4 K; W% osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; _ |# u$ f& cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 q) b& T6 b; y- D, ~. n& P) B
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ t& A1 g2 n( {5 Y1 a+ M. q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 H; }: Z" t! D8 `# P5 c/ ~' b: E
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, x7 H E6 J3 Z9 E: ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 D9 t1 n9 _5 _4 V( w2 ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.) b1 X- [: B5 C. H s# c
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 B! F9 w- s, a4 X
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 p8 m8 d! B5 E) E# y6 Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; k& _# Q9 b% l; }8 P5 |: P9 J
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 s2 T* r H. ~9 V3 {% `
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
5 \! b5 S4 D" P8 ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 k/ e. g! C( U: R8 ]. `! N
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ Y- a6 B! ]+ E H9 t, Wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 F, R, F. \! [1 }- j) |
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 h6 |7 j8 J( u) c
historically depressed levels.5 w t7 ^# n, }! q* N; u9 i( h' L
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 S7 ?: `! T4 ~) tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House- E$ z* ?) V& s! t% Q7 B: b
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- w0 A5 r% u) _7 t/ l4 ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 Z1 }$ a* V/ t" l, X2 cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 x3 |! L' V3 D4 N4 y: S
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 [) n/ u2 k: w! }! ?$ }1 `- D RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- R3 w2 ]8 y, r
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
' h8 |8 J- T+ z) w- x$ o( e/ |& K42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.- \# y9 n+ f. c" {* R
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 ?$ @$ N1 y/ \/ Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
0 O4 I: t& M* E( f2 E* Z+ F# k6 Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only3 H3 o! v: L- q9 Y; t. W: T3 E
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ h6 g1 `+ G3 q4 T. ~$ L The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 N! e5 s6 x+ ?$ E4 U% _
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* p; n9 Y7 B% f/ }
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" @% E1 _" {- _4 X5 X. ~
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ Q+ @( d) b3 T5 n+ r. X) @condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) p. L7 n3 U. TFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 R+ }. o8 A8 V9 v4 T: Rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 Q6 S! h3 u4 b+ s8 g$ r
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
) s0 m( ?# M5 g4 H' e5 N
4 _( U0 U7 `( a' m3 m% N <<
+ y) e, b j7 u9 o Highlights from across Canada:
# `6 _; L, \# z. [! ~( U" ^1 H( W% G5 X. Y! o+ l9 z
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 F) o _# J. Z+ X. t6 m7 l& C' ]9 N% y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; n$ v( W& N" u8 b$ v* ~% U% ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound2 C9 Q D+ _5 f. v" p$ h
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track h; }3 N+ |% `4 b1 `; D5 y
since about the middle of 2007.
& C* O$ _& S! i$ M - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 ^ Y; o# c* \0 T9 D5 b1 R j8 n( w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 _+ J: I. x/ U# K
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- Y& [9 G4 l, G1 }6 P largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 f9 E' I& Z& W { poor affordability levels.
+ }* W$ b: C! F( S* F2 ^ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' Y- p- V8 z- j1 i, ^+ q& i
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; m$ S% j7 n+ I
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
S) h+ C7 N: I Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 H) Y7 k+ l# ~
minimize any downside risks.+ ?- {7 b8 T$ F) g$ |0 E0 a- `7 b
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 h4 }- p4 z7 f( n3 B( d conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is' ?, F J# V/ E$ E% J' N
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
/ Z4 ~/ n' Z: |3 j 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 O$ C. h/ {6 D5 S8 ]: }$ o' S
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. }9 Y7 p X5 _3 Z0 `7 x) a" F( b
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! B4 K' ~8 R# _( ^ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, U% V0 x3 J$ y6 x4 B
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
0 ]& G' `/ _8 E4 i reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be( c- V; I& r) F! ?. V0 A
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; z" ~' R" i* _# ?
modestly in recent years.
! Z5 ]/ T4 b' Z( l! n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 H! M( W8 l$ H* X2 j8 V1 E3 l, b general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ O. {5 y& t: o2 `$ N1 e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: H9 R$ e9 B9 W' S3 L
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. [7 f( m$ X( \7 h following two years of deterioration.4 W# r" j5 b9 V9 d8 }/ k
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