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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; ]& j, v# W- g0 k: ^
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 t3 D& R3 @* z0 j7 c7 q$ N t5 }, b2 f5 h
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 c, v3 t' h0 D# @( |" E
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 ?5 C% J2 U( h% laccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ ?/ D0 _5 y" y) e3 }6 G "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 g3 B' E+ @3 W1 |said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- o. o+ `, l6 x, P; n6 Ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
- t; t6 b# C7 ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."0 m4 Q9 W( W+ M. E
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is3 E% t7 s! q0 ^) R7 \5 |0 A5 B. _* }8 Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 ?8 T% r/ k% C% g& K: g4 E2 Q
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( u2 W/ ?9 f" e; a3 v- }sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.+ v' X- ^# Q' i4 ^
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the2 A# S |% d! N7 V2 e4 X
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" j5 m6 V6 y$ j
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
y; D3 J0 C7 ~Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the: u; i q- A3 J) x6 p( \# W
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and: H3 G+ l& q, b0 h, |* u; G: f1 t' x: `
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: y1 Z! H/ D! W, E. s1 G According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% k" k; O3 r0 j/ R6 i! n' Gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 k' j' S. r7 v; Ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at' Q/ Q* |+ x- z) N: h- }
historically depressed levels.3 X- v3 ^0 v6 [* ^0 N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" F0 \$ \5 ^% k* p8 ]
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House u. H7 f) K0 c- K# v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, I- `; x6 H4 G# j
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. p8 A/ A& V" Oenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! G" L. H F$ ~+ r( [months ahead," added Hogue.
7 l0 ]! Y3 ^' Q8 B RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 s0 k: q& u: q) m: P0 l$ k
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 T1 j3 A' S) e; |* z+ E) m
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
; m+ h8 s- @2 d/ s6 w3 \- w9 v The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 S! q) @2 D W/ c' p6 C* z Wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 H" u' v/ g2 j- _cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
& |1 V6 [. \8 r; utakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' E5 N0 O$ ^! j5 Y/ M The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
6 \. n# \# F. j1 ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 H; j7 M& L( D. ^$ jbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 }4 [( T* X1 e7 p, Zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard ?& c4 S5 o+ F2 @
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( {- A2 _) {" p4 I3 ?
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
$ Z/ Z* _$ d2 ~" P5 h4 pcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50' V" g$ {4 Z4 T# K3 a/ t" H3 x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 K6 y5 F/ j9 S/ S* ]
# U e& f3 t9 |6 y; Q' P$ u <<' C, v4 W: O( }$ T C- A- r; U
Highlights from across Canada:
" G2 ^5 Y) y- D# N
; ^( v4 c' i2 ?8 X - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ q/ O ?9 t4 L; l% l
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) M5 E: b W& q! ?8 ^" Y
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% I B# y# j+ ~4 g6 h/ t only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% U8 q+ a/ x. a" y. R0 N
since about the middle of 2007.
) I5 m+ c' M! \ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ c$ Z% s/ p* M# B2 U frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 s; L" u: Q- S8 l# Q0 A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 D3 f! ]9 j4 i4 S5 }# R largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ w* a. y' ?, G/ Z, _4 o
poor affordability levels.
$ ?& U; S6 [# E6 t! K - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the: u: [% g# u# k$ x) Z {, i& ]4 X+ X: b
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- H7 E* h# o, r- d1 {- w
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ ~8 v. V2 E; A6 c; h b9 T
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' S2 a( o1 o' z S) K+ R3 B minimize any downside risks.9 a6 ` }! w; i; R
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 j) |9 S& v5 ^, K, X1 u conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# u6 O- \5 G. v" z1 i* s0 p unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: V1 s, g4 a+ v7 {) W# Y! ~ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 l" V8 m# n7 A5 L- e3 H8 O) G3 s being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. a4 c% q0 k" e
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
3 r4 A( A1 Z$ | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 Q2 q, M9 p: |% F( w7 h) _. ~ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, F2 c& S8 B" t4 j
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: s# u) {- C* _$ s; W" K* k
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( }$ V$ o+ [, I& M modestly in recent years.
7 s: _3 w0 h8 [0 e5 X - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
2 X. G4 E0 H; m2 [' o7 a general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 N# A; v# {0 Y" L$ W7 U spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% A- F- e# s# ]# K$ @$ ~
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' |& R- a% z' r2 f: E4 n7 @
following two years of deterioration.) N" K6 j$ l* A" T+ u% m
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