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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + s% t5 a1 }9 U) l: c2 t# O0 P+ p3 Y4 I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 Q: O2 n. R2 G+ c0 ? i1 ]- g
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# t9 T2 U9 [9 x6 N% Z9 H$ b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 n9 P- L' \/ r$ d7 Raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ A+ K6 p$ ~0 v( J: v
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"/ I8 l& y0 W. `) t2 N/ @
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 N2 n8 A- Z7 l0 F6 [! Z nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 b2 F6 d" M" Q8 n ?
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" U2 ] g+ E, H8 T
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is; r7 e0 J' E6 j, i- [3 N! k
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
1 q \+ w! K' `. cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
9 q4 c+ }9 N+ d- p3 Q1 |9 Z5 q9 asustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 ~1 B2 U; u9 `8 a The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: n/ C4 r. z2 C: S& j# B0 R# s/ Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
& ?* ^/ o" H n) ^home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 ?% t" [, K7 `! o, ^: I7 P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 t+ R! x) z5 F/ F
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
+ g J1 L6 E1 j# F& y$ @the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 j. T' ?( \3 Y% L According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 |; `/ y E# Nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- l+ ~. _( N" E; p- F; | g& Ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 C, n' W. L( R& Ohistorically depressed levels.
! Y; p: @" @( I. W9 h; C; ~+ z6 @, w+ S Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 [/ @! u: _# T
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 h0 T. r- }. u. f. L" ?
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the5 P( u- Z& h. m4 I) n [# O
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This8 @* }! R" P5 F/ h2 G4 `) e
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the8 T3 j8 U5 m; h1 z
months ahead," added Hogue.
- p9 c. Y3 H5 [+ H# o) W, O RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* c$ q% {) F. @0 g
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) _$ O+ T$ y. p: J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
L# G8 p. ~" W$ m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 _/ o& @" x$ @0 s+ ya broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 o# i. p" Z. s/ Hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 k7 h1 m" J6 T; xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 e. H& x6 E2 }$ ?6 C& Q The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' G5 V4 i6 R2 i$ z% ?based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& }/ T" b" {8 X/ n% H) ~
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented% H" G# G( d4 Y0 i% t" R6 v( T8 O
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
0 l3 i/ @& Y% ^condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
6 o9 X# w3 I: z) @2 b! r) b# \7 eFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 F T. \3 D3 A) o5 p& t* vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ M6 ^4 N/ c, J' Z/ n" J4 Q6 j- Y4 T% [
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 }% E" ^! u4 ~) J
/ A" D, @& o3 r3 V% | <<
! j: _! c8 K( K2 u0 h2 R Highlights from across Canada:
" B" g5 f7 k1 \( t9 }* ~* U2 w: L/ `
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ H: g( x# D% W* i) g. m4 J
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 [! R; h) ]( G" ~4 i$ r home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; q; p0 ]: F2 a5 {7 m9 r" {* T
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ I7 m" F) G: A6 |
since about the middle of 2007.
; [4 N& e7 i; R& r1 u - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, k& C. M5 L# b9 _+ i3 G0 V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- z# L5 R3 r9 I$ G% d8 y8 @% R
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% x3 ?6 ~; b6 R# B largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 g& R6 }6 j, [- P9 P% b poor affordability levels.+ O6 L/ i+ m; T) e$ a" w$ a
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
1 c9 v% R9 }: y3 q: V2 ^7 n' r/ F vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- R7 e1 j7 q* P
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.4 S( t/ W$ H3 B, h) e/ x( |! U
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
8 A% V2 \3 _0 p0 z D2 Q minimize any downside risks.1 j4 {; Z2 e' T! n# R7 n- g
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, m) H! D7 d/ _2 m2 [' g conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( L# a0 W g8 Z unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 `* M, i: s4 { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% C0 \* |' q1 j$ G$ o
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( R% D& ^+ G8 [, { - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in) O' G( P3 u- w9 o5 z/ x- x
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# R- X5 ^( V$ k' y: t P far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- _. ^! L/ G, {3 x! s$ w; O& ^) ?
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
3 T# \( I" Q% U/ `/ }8 n ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 x3 W$ b0 N# ^ f
modestly in recent years.
$ o( x! f" U& r - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. w: P! ^$ u0 R: p3 M# }6 i3 M
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot4 e5 _2 L/ z2 R3 l
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ e' ]* ~) u7 u/ d6 n" l4 K2 i2 e price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability: y9 A5 d! X- b i
following two years of deterioration.
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