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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
& |+ D1 S3 m: V5 l" ~ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 U5 m* q* k4 `7 @4 fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- [ o; H* W% V& qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: \! n4 C1 B; iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
/ c' h: s0 L/ c! I "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 [: g7 b( w# N; H
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
( U! t( g A3 g4 w Yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability t, D* t3 s1 E/ z D
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."% Z. Y, Z; N4 o1 q7 q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
" l n ?2 M$ B- K- U/ R* u) Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,& k5 I' e6 f9 n% S8 ?1 v; e; m5 d9 Z
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' j# h* @+ h/ lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 X2 K- n* w. x. O% Q3 x# E9 t The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; g% [+ B) q2 n! X8 Cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- f# u4 N4 [8 c' n, _
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
/ D3 q: V* I1 x$ o2 uAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
. j- M* `9 B- h) @! b# X& k1 vstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and0 ]: n6 | E* ? C
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, T% J/ {& C; Y+ @$ ^) q2 x6 X According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 M: s* X5 t. |' `5 Zmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 U9 z! r+ B5 |, [8 ^- ^' D: Rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, W$ \6 D# k- b0 e9 ]! Mhistorically depressed levels.
! c" B8 R1 m5 f) h0 o% g Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost6 s3 i! \8 _) y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
: v: h+ m8 K u4 ^$ lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: j0 R* d6 p5 `, ~- X" o* z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ D9 B9 v$ p$ L1 F/ G
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 B4 Q1 J7 U" x; m+ c( q7 Xmonths ahead," added Hogue.7 ^' Z$ d' X1 e8 E
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& W# c. h5 J) R. j/ T4 e5 n( o: n3 T
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
6 u, o I) s# D/ Z+ j42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.2 [; I1 P+ d) k! D6 h7 M7 d
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
2 g/ b/ \3 v6 J# d/ Q) X: ~a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 c0 r( ]3 C' y5 ^% |cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( Q, u' k7 v/ z: F& V
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.; t6 t# i# m+ C5 z% y7 Y4 c( N$ o3 y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! `0 ?% U/ H( y. F; l5 B0 h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
Z4 k l# X. J3 G, J4 x7 u5 `benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ {- c* C* \+ B+ cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard! f( z8 f7 r8 D1 q% |3 K
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( D# i' I7 c; I+ ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 z* n) ?3 J T; B pcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 T) y: j$ ^& ]! q& @' u% iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 U! N) H: Q( Z3 ~$ u0 Y# {
' H3 Z! @! Z# K5 u$ @. D4 D
<<# d' O. {' Z1 ~( a# f4 t
Highlights from across Canada:% L% ~% Z y, b' O4 s1 u7 V: @
5 o, L8 q! W1 U0 h
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( N, f$ q( {) e( {) U* t intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 r; o0 i8 `; ], w4 _ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% [( O. T# A( Y/ Z! K only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
% a% x# j# K: l1 M since about the middle of 2007.0 N9 W% n" I4 j2 y; P/ \
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" n3 `- a+ b2 j. e2 F7 h e frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# w- v6 q4 |9 }
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: O2 d7 m0 X$ x) r6 T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( T) O* I8 }: v. y5 N# E
poor affordability levels., J6 ^7 e8 T/ O3 |6 L
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( C& r7 ~# m# O& i' L! u vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: D7 x+ ]4 j2 l. d9 F prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' F: `. z7 F9 }; a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
4 W1 {7 g0 X5 `% b$ y minimize any downside risks.* u- }( n( ^4 l) C, w- ?3 L6 Z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. ]* ?/ w4 t+ y1 J# C2 \3 Q2 m! K
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 n+ c; W: {- D8 a! F5 a7 I8 I
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* a% B3 N, }( W4 V
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
k1 o( f$ \* _+ X4 d( g" c being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 C' U6 l3 J8 K( [0 x; m% i& j - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* B! W f; k1 r$ j# d' a9 ~- |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 b2 u' F% G3 S7 c9 N
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
3 [/ ~& v7 h0 ~+ q M7 R; W. p reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' D% J$ ^# B: g9 \& v ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 d5 U8 N- e N& A* C
modestly in recent years.4 `' v' N7 O; u, N. c
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- L- \% r* I9 y3 l! G9 W4 p
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" {9 d3 Y7 X3 n, M2 x) S spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 L4 y8 O5 G* g d
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 G% K/ f0 r* w: W: h7 J following two years of deterioration.
* Z8 H! _; J4 G7 q3 ?8 L' n >> |
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