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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 u: q9 {2 a6 I7 b TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 K+ O% C, m9 Z$ P$ o' h% l% Amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# h! C m5 s& I' X, k3 Rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,+ t: W* w* G$ H o- d' r( n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' [# Z& g+ A0 r7 J0 d& J* C "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 }9 ~( B* }' }+ U$ A" f9 b7 E' r/ H
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is6 J8 ]; S- \( J( y$ s3 L
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 F# Q3 C. N1 Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, ?& j p4 c% Z4 o+ J: k' S4 ? RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 ~/ `- d0 u4 ]3 l# E% b
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: K! `- w0 [$ l& d% z" n
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have* c# j$ u1 E: u/ m2 M
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# Q6 m& x- `4 d1 {
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; H" u3 T+ O. [5 Qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a( T% R0 k- r. _* R8 U8 |+ E; l2 M2 s
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 j6 Y; i; |8 X; N7 }) y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 O I3 Z! K% |standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 ?) m v. `5 S) q9 ^+ Kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 d2 b3 o9 X+ g8 O O: I Q8 } According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
0 i* w" V$ O8 |- |1 K4 _/ F9 Gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 n- ^) Z s! D0 {) Z# d3 Gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' e. Z4 S9 l- {: qhistorically depressed levels.' x2 [; c# o: _6 n
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 U$ i4 Y8 J1 D' M) O0 p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. F3 C! r. f: O; Q3 c5 O- J7 x7 u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; e# |& |' k: z' I( X- H7 m* t8 ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: x. Q' C5 [( s# H( |+ N' V# nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
9 @7 @! W* g0 ~) T, Fmonths ahead," added Hogue.6 z& `" Q) [0 H' ^; ~
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 V2 ~$ G( q3 n7 tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; {9 k8 U% i. o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. A; G& P6 A9 n" }" Y. `/ h" N
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) g9 P9 n8 F2 t: T% ~4 V6 R6 Z% F& t
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 a( _+ x% w/ W4 `! U9 p
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 v$ W4 Y4 d' p7 ^- ]! h9 Etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* w9 O/ P7 w$ { The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 I0 p- g0 B6 ~: I8 C# c% A
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 O8 P; A% F8 s0 _9 H) }& Tbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
5 n. j5 T7 S2 A6 x7 pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* v2 x. @: n) I+ z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% _. b5 Z/ H0 k/ p0 x+ F
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ s ?* B2 \; m& v% K! d4 W3 Fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 O) L D1 e& D1 A4 ~: Oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% w$ K7 t; w. V, K* S4 ^
6 l2 D/ z F5 G9 g. r+ w k$ z8 |
<<) o) b+ r9 [) d4 P8 R* v
Highlights from across Canada:
% m% {6 F5 b1 O$ G2 u
5 i3 ^! q6 \3 t, } r - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& H, ~$ Q- t2 ^9 h intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; X, _$ W8 L& n
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; ^6 W; L& ~0 Q& n only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track" h* i3 C9 s: L( O3 {
since about the middle of 2007.& h; Z+ T* o; A$ ]# {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, w) a, W; u6 W
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& W8 X, \, z$ W9 b# m; l
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. t v7 ~% l/ z8 @; a0 A6 ^! O4 I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely: ]7 C& q) y+ B% F6 b
poor affordability levels.
, Y; o5 w9 p6 b t! \8 { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! m+ ~8 j( N# \
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and, ^+ {, [5 Q' t0 A8 }( N2 a
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 R" K. d+ ~4 P9 F: i3 S Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ g7 y5 d8 c2 q3 O3 n# p+ r
minimize any downside risks.
8 J+ {4 [, A- h: o# } - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 q( t/ P: t( o" i6 n0 s: `
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 a( ?2 F/ ~7 y3 b8 ^. G) Y unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& |; f4 a4 g, J! x9 b: r. Q6 c
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 |* m6 |. M3 i9 I k- J being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 O9 g" O) s* X3 U) U0 V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 `; E6 P& a) `5 r' G' `' W Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 j, e4 J7 h% x5 Y5 k far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 c$ B7 ] f4 I reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be4 I. Z9 i6 m# x, s
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; G1 C) V) t' b1 o. _ modestly in recent years.
5 v' d4 G( j8 O1 R: d - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
- [: _ I0 K& l( G" T* l* U general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# m- Y2 ?! r+ T% w" R9 r
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' I) ]5 X9 w% c) {& v
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- c% k4 ?+ f5 n- f following two years of deterioration.* l8 f+ D) F+ _1 Q/ C. w5 F) k: X
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