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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % A9 Y( _. Y, m- v$ o/ D
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* r( p! c. }4 t$ x! ^: `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& v4 _/ ~, @5 a* u; hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 L3 e6 M( E' T
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. Y$ X2 u) c, O: m; U
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& B# z! J/ y$ c) M% W, a6 P; J5 |said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
0 A# l k; }% k' }" ?improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability& S) g# }; z$ `2 y& d5 c$ S8 P
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" y, u0 a/ ^2 z, b& A$ W. p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 m4 [# h) Q3 g( uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 t+ Y- ]6 a2 i5 x( V0 t/ g5 l
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) Q2 h, m$ m G9 x
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% D' X B" ]% q7 @# ? The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
6 Y% K* y3 J, D# V* Tproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
" M* t& u2 M6 bhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 E% B- o/ g- l4 i$ W- K5 I0 HAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# ~$ X# A: M5 D- F; l& [% @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. C7 g) Y9 j: N* Z( D7 ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 `9 l4 \: W5 @+ T- p
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 [( Z. r- p5 x$ J- `" xmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 n2 _* k r5 ^; ~2 a% N% Sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: \8 P2 U' @% c( a' S" J, S' Ohistorically depressed levels.
( e( [' f$ H0 {+ Z8 ~ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! X/ M+ j, w$ y, w/ _- Uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ o: }/ a6 `' Jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 b, ^0 P1 @+ t! e5 bhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ A) A, \2 {9 F ]% w- ^enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
( r/ @/ P- H- j/ Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.6 Z: M Y% o7 e- q5 s) s$ }) E% p( L
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 y: d |+ _% ^2 a8 X* N* l
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 L$ q B: u" @* R. R42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent., l3 m: i% w; I
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 _& X9 L4 u8 a& K$ u* { ca broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
0 g! g0 ^7 F1 n2 [7 S9 B! L* zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, z m* f2 A/ D mtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) y; q* x W8 o$ |
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 B9 p* t, R) w1 p7 Z! w( J. v
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 k) o% A1 b6 U. \0 e gbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" H5 `$ T, D a1 `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ q9 P9 u4 Y q; A) n! [* k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
& p ]7 }/ W, B; I2 a8 ?For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: d& M3 A! i }costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* m% I, A0 ]2 F/ s! Q& T9 [per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 L6 _1 @6 F% |2 ]5 L8 Z# v0 U
* }, Z9 ~1 O) u <<
7 F2 |6 C# _4 j Highlights from across Canada:9 z9 F1 h# ~; q6 k! u: u; V
3 p) r' q9 j, i - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& M4 G, R) n9 D intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 P4 b; u9 m% a4 r home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 Z5 K) i0 o n2 {- Z5 A- E9 R- { only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: s% V9 V$ Y; }$ p since about the middle of 2007. t a- i+ C" c3 h0 h, m- h
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ K: s7 t' K A3 F* L( h frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# O: C& p" }# F5 Z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 w' k+ |9 X7 n2 I0 @ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely2 d2 g0 s- L) `. X
poor affordability levels.. q- n6 o6 F; f" u) I& p! ]
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 e A: u5 j4 Q1 o9 [! Z# U vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
- g0 |* ^. C9 p; h( E prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" d; o% B6 @6 O1 C4 m0 _/ y- a, h Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! L3 \+ `9 b! E9 p minimize any downside risks.5 |/ P1 u, q: }8 }" H+ x! C( B
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market2 f8 R, E7 J2 H2 W9 a
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; C" T& L6 n) [5 n1 b; Y5 ^ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
( a' l7 G, J: E 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& Z( V0 @/ z# K! r
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
/ G7 W% r$ t1 p - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
$ Q" j% j7 b) Y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% v5 [1 P4 R' r$ p7 P9 J" Z( D far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' [7 m( ]7 o; A+ @/ v( C2 M* V5 q5 a reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 a8 _" Z, s- H" W ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! h; H6 Z! t7 C+ y, Z, y modestly in recent years.
# ~( I$ M+ K! U- @2 t5 k - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' k0 q B1 j; j5 n
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 o I) k0 Q/ ^6 b# [) R+ U0 i% Y2 \
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ A* K; g7 Q9 b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& o3 {6 e+ Z& Z1 G4 A! ~8 l% p- E. X
following two years of deterioration.
% d, q. O* @3 `' W9 l: L0 n >> |
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