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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % C( i x# g+ T: X, ^9 W
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! b& H( {- P! B- }) q8 w9 Amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 B- I% M( [& B7 b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 U" I0 \; @. T# f: P9 v% Maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
! O$ `7 }# ?4 d4 j7 U2 {1 j8 {% p- s "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 f2 c' k" w8 U- Isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* ^+ [9 [, F2 {; y. t% h3 u7 \9 k
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 q0 ~ k4 M! L. X* Y8 L
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
2 Q/ \) d2 x- B1 Q/ h6 b RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 Q) \7 s: l- o+ f7 c
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& P0 T$ F1 b- W6 \which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" K% B8 q* v0 p7 Ysustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., a) v# M" E: h$ H+ x' }5 E
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
" e3 `0 z" o; _* ]% Y0 Tproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 `: B# ]4 E" _0 Q- W
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 i" p9 g4 n# P5 e' i3 [* |( j/ |+ {2 U
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 L4 O0 r: A( F" e: j' N, P+ i& ^4 b
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
8 w& O$ M0 z2 N: D7 Ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' W+ K* a) `( @) p& i( ^
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 i7 W) i h( b! V$ Q% b4 @
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 @ s9 s2 b/ y& l( g
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. U9 x' ~- C8 S5 A/ b$ h( ghistorically depressed levels.% _$ l, x7 {' x/ K) @
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% n6 c* w3 ]2 A3 t* Zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House f. b S9 N$ C: Q" \
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- Y) X: a) k4 k4 i* shands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
; f# u3 V* c) Denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the! H! B. P+ x' a. C' r1 ?
months ahead," added Hogue.: C7 K, P- E, e
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) D' N/ n5 @# p
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* s: c9 o1 z# K9 g8 k g
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 `( P( g; W: U1 x4 s The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" u0 x' ^$ J! [7 ~8 _+ }" l
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 x2 |* A8 T8 \2 a f
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% B& b1 j' v2 a( {) @7 J7 E# Y5 [
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
m& f. O) w. H2 p; Y9 u& Z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
" ~$ K) h0 O( m; G& f: zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& o ^- `+ M% W! n2 @. cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 \! Q; @& K$ c) q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
, j# k3 x1 f( @$ C$ P8 k& O) ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ G. G) B( x+ X8 x; g/ r* V
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
$ M$ p, F8 c8 Kcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 507 `+ g* i6 }, `9 F
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, n$ x8 H5 u7 ^' L1 L% {5 m' p9 d) R. Q6 h( U* ~" c
<<
- D3 |* `% X% b' t6 G0 P Highlights from across Canada:
u( O; Q% N( C
3 z9 C( E+ f9 l5 L4 A) m+ X - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has! O0 J$ B5 \3 ^9 }
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing* L+ Q& r! Y& I8 l7 G, _
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 w2 a$ x9 n' M0 Y! I6 g
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 w& n" M/ a* u
since about the middle of 2007.
1 H7 |) D. A- D9 e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 `2 h. v/ H/ }$ ?5 O frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
% q4 U& A9 O" [9 l" a decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 ~1 y% @. u8 Y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
2 `2 y, h" Y6 @" k3 J. q) V' Q poor affordability levels.
& K/ p! O# J$ Q" u3 }0 ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
- s0 e; |/ |/ e* y, O# X. F& ] vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ w/ X0 t; Y& c" D* G
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! B: |" S' v! ]; E6 w; Z7 r; H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( g4 |3 A! k1 i4 }* `' C# q, F8 _ minimize any downside risks.5 L" x% v! A( M' e
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
- H* ^. W O) ~7 i conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 @) Y+ J5 J+ k" C' p9 _7 ]8 F
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* ]7 E y# C0 ^3 y" Y- l5 \
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' n/ X! Z9 t( T f being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.$ g! m( j$ _6 y8 C; w. y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 s7 l- f, e- X l0 _) l& ^- k, Z& |! `3 A
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
9 L1 ~2 m+ m6 q$ C! p2 `/ b1 Z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 J5 v) f+ [% _1 [& Z8 J' ~5 y reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 c7 Y5 m1 o4 J" \2 S
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: m1 }" G- b, e8 O6 e& [2 J/ f modestly in recent years.* q, x, l! q" o& ^
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
0 `" `+ m% D5 i0 s general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- O5 _+ j" z4 h# T' F0 F- |3 ^7 N
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: d! a: d6 f# u; Q1 A; [7 c
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 E0 Y7 b [5 ]5 L% o5 X5 H6 r! I4 V following two years of deterioration.
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