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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
, p$ h Z4 @- I& n% Q }( d, [1 y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 y" c6 X; r4 _ z( fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, F+ e4 O4 |$ q- V4 d4 [ @
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 h' z: D3 V' b' C
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
) N9 X0 g) C' i! q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- S1 q) T1 ?# h' Xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 q) q$ \ {$ d" {5 l/ R2 C. Iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 j4 C" R+ y+ k6 m) I8 q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." M( C+ _3 Y& Z) d
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 J$ A' B+ O% J) n5 @+ {worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ B$ o. m0 T0 a/ ~5 _which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have, z6 z2 i8 w0 T* J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 I% ^. i, V: X) d The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 i3 P9 |7 [; g. J$ Q1 Fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; U1 q/ \* M. Y' d
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) P" n' P& T% n+ J% v5 K; B
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the* Z* _# B/ O2 H5 H5 c3 J
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 ~ o6 X4 E/ G, z% \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 W6 z! }7 b9 _8 E$ s$ c
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) C3 W; R, c1 C) z$ y I- j* v
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( M8 l: L: [2 q2 F6 n$ o( J" Q/ R
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, |3 N, M9 o* x1 ?$ Khistorically depressed levels.
3 C9 j! o* y" L! v; ]! T K" Y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& I2 v' Q. Q r8 P0 a6 P! ^' \of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& U" J& Y! D" S' V# v
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; p# X+ w: Y0 E$ phands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
; F6 W+ u% @) ^9 e! Penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the1 e5 d6 v o5 t j q$ @) ?% S8 T
months ahead," added Hogue.) R. ~2 a; [# c8 H Z" X; f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ ?" ?2 V% J: Z3 C$ ^cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary/ F8 \; [* w# W2 C Z3 b' |
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
& J, }% u/ `: H5 d The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# A" G4 Z$ r8 r/ v
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these s# C+ n+ t" P
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 e& f: A$ @) `3 {' ]9 P' g _( Ktakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) Y5 d- W" E: D0 _2 e The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& c5 }0 |! q+ `2 Gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; p5 X6 v" U+ r" `" ~2 Hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# Z8 y% o! [ k( M' v
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: N4 E: S2 Y, N8 U6 g4 n2 k6 j a2 T# K
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
+ u% H9 m% Y2 \- ?( |For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
6 h# n; g g" H- ?- G* icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% l$ {8 o" E& v8 Z+ z' ~
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! z1 B' ?$ j* @; N; _: ]& O- z( W
2 E, F& G4 q c1 T# C) @ <<$ H, D# g7 T9 q7 L5 A
Highlights from across Canada:
. }2 {% K X. F* a( x8 M. |, X+ N9 t* d: H) H% M3 G
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 V3 H. b7 s3 h w; k
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing9 @' V& O7 {" |+ \
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 ^" Y/ R( N! i' n/ Q only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 ^1 Y* o1 C d' O& { since about the middle of 2007.; ?. {( R4 ]( n. A9 T1 ~1 B3 a
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; m7 Z: ^ Z s8 z
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 e/ c. m+ b$ q* N0 D2 Y+ @( S decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" r% ?2 g: ~$ {& _ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
w3 Z w7 F7 f3 q$ p5 q- X poor affordability levels. w3 C4 v' S2 m W
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. j$ _* |+ c% ^# \! | vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
/ @4 o* J% X0 b E2 ~/ g: m prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( `; t! w0 w) X+ R- T- V) m
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 z3 h# C6 b8 [: G/ D
minimize any downside risks.5 l9 r4 [& A% h2 ]/ v
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# H: g5 t5 F7 X+ H4 s" k# h& C/ _$ S& e conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& [$ b" L& [; D4 i unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early; C/ c3 A0 Q2 s1 \/ U5 x
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly U2 k3 S- e3 `# ?6 ~
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.8 O" i$ ]+ O% f" {! F
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, M [9 ]" b( D, J' c5 ~# u Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 j' P+ i! [: X7 F8 W: f* W8 u
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 j' ^1 [1 M8 b; }* y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) @3 h3 P; ~ B. o. f3 N6 a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( n9 r8 b' v& _# y8 ]6 U9 I4 i modestly in recent years.
( w1 B3 _2 B2 f/ R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 J5 g; n. R7 c0 o- y4 M: L
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 C; }& C/ X2 f6 D spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward5 [' c4 o$ s# q' \7 s* z) B
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 l/ s( d5 L* y G) U following two years of deterioration.) } i( H1 R7 E* _1 H! `
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