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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) Y+ H8 R( X: u' j! } TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( |" M% Y2 W8 l& H! W# p3 v
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 t5 _; ~6 J# P
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, q$ `$ s* j) Aaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# { e) b6 f+ |5 |2 `" o' R
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 r q9 w) s& t, A! g" k" A
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
' ^) ?/ n* U; l& Rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ P/ k, m; R% f, h& b; ^
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
w- G O% y/ M5 }0 Y RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 r3 k: p6 g& P% ~& Dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,/ y0 \0 J+ v4 ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ T+ x H9 _% q3 Usustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- ? A/ F6 w4 {/ p The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, M1 K0 J a4 q9 J# Q( t4 Mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& C8 L( `; m0 m6 B& p
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ W$ l! J5 r2 j7 i( F/ V- k% sAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 ~1 u( i/ |# c" O. G# S1 p- W
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
8 a6 a& y& n" z& @6 u" Ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.! P+ x5 w( b c8 o! h* b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 @, y9 ?, o/ {6 m: w( xmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 q. G. D) ~+ ?5 [
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at& @" W2 {. s8 V9 z8 n
historically depressed levels.
7 L1 @. b5 L! \ r0 r _; b; Z L Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ X ^2 i) F9 I. ?4 z$ ^2 z3 E6 w {of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 A: }1 u! \2 Xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; p, ^0 I! c4 d7 thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 E) [8 a6 k! R7 nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 Q% u/ \# u% K; q8 H! t( {
months ahead," added Hogue.9 w9 U9 F$ u7 n9 a" j# f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
# d0 B. L8 L! C% Y- o# _4 `cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ g: ^% k) B2 I6 u3 S* _5 Z: F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
$ W4 I5 [5 c! r' [ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' I/ g1 f0 @* k2 g; _2 u
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
+ x, Y C/ @8 T3 J1 f- ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 T& I( M: ]. O
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
# P' X- ^! V5 o4 X+ C) ] The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
" {) B5 p4 q7 k5 e- Gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property O# }$ h9 }* ^
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' \, r6 r. u$ i
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" i6 |5 G2 }. u% [) B& Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
' s; F( y+ x2 E0 L* H' o$ g* WFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 d3 u, Q3 [2 I% I) p
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50! ]. |/ K8 f. ^3 R. {# d
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( i$ h8 ^% A ]) K' T
, D5 C0 | E: q' \% z8 g! h <<5 X% D! e# p8 n1 u" T0 s7 r2 n/ [6 O
Highlights from across Canada:
* B4 J R, X' K7 f& C" q0 c
* f- b+ }. P! M: K8 o0 {& B - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. n" g1 J! I$ @: ]5 B5 j
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ `) {% }1 q; f. e) Y% H home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! g8 X u+ P, W/ C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 h! k; D7 c; H2 i. J since about the middle of 2007.0 |/ v$ U/ v- n
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 a4 ^# @4 s0 h7 H/ g! F
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) u* t. e+ l' n! I4 [1 c
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 h" ~/ |. f/ e% ?. G largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 S% x+ @& ?% c% M+ c
poor affordability levels.
8 d7 k# l) p1 u! i. A - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 |5 T( b3 N: T* I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
, E! t2 N6 H8 K" N# G, t% c prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ G& U, i V9 N- r9 X8 ` Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
1 a2 f/ t2 b4 j, G( r6 h: C minimize any downside risks.# b, i7 M; E, ~* L3 E( |
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" H6 m- f) n5 D# i- R+ X* X* A
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
6 Y9 e8 }/ F3 X8 T. h/ P unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. {! o# W. P9 v" E4 A* C! A
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
# r% x, j7 `( h* p" q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' F: j$ V1 K* S4 j! }5 y! G - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, l/ E; _+ [7 i3 V, c" s' ] Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 p4 }" E0 w& z+ e8 d far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up8 X# D7 a0 r2 w: K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
3 F2 G* Y# |& X7 ~4 K- ~- a; F6 z" g ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- L* @" x9 Z; z
modestly in recent years.# u( d. n& ~6 `1 d- d
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 f* K; o1 ?' D, k6 S1 o P: w
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 a/ Y: T( c# Y$ I' E! x spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ U0 Q2 S0 w+ ?9 J( ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 P5 g" P3 J/ b! R& O; R" w! B2 Y following two years of deterioration.4 d6 _& i; y/ q# S- q
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