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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . E) W. V: c& K4 l, k7 T; M
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
# X' S# h* j, |; Lmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* ?7 D; h. [. U* u6 g dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions," p! e, ^$ O" Z% }7 l* Z; j+ E
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* ]' f" w+ Q. z1 [* U
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! G) q' X8 c) ~! q7 w
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ {8 \) N) A" E, m( _
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, L+ C# D/ w( H6 }
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 m; J: J& _3 G4 S: ~3 t
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* S7 A" I# o1 m4 w0 F: s& pworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ o3 Z) O- _" k8 J1 Y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 g" g7 k) q4 s; R7 s$ Y( Y8 G
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. Q2 u7 a" n5 c; [ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" E y9 W; v2 t' {5 D3 _$ ^
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: P- X! S: l- f4 Rhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 y8 @# \, |( tAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
+ y1 t8 S4 ~1 ?/ b/ bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 z/ Q7 ^8 d$ Q) m) @9 T
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 T& t- R5 B+ v% h1 m, u' c According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. ~9 I) p6 {# s/ @) T
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; {% `8 w( a5 ^* x" E
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; F3 K7 E4 i& z! whistorically depressed levels.
- O6 ~9 ]: z3 }3 m! ~, S Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: h* m2 }( P& Y& B5 X/ l$ n: H( |of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 G, a+ c' p7 T& b* Oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, J- i9 M* N+ P% X/ G- Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& ]+ W' X" o3 H M; p [$ ~- [) Genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
@% ]" C' S) E6 Y: [5 N/ M. ~months ahead," added Hogue.% ]5 ^; q& l5 {0 ?) F7 [" m
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* G6 `4 E2 l4 O. v" v6 F J6 ^4 P
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( W" I* k2 f6 Q# e6 F5 v, G
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent., X6 d+ k1 v( [$ ^
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 Y3 g: r0 S! B1 D y# d i
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; N' A0 W; o0 S0 H6 v
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only5 [- n- h, B2 K0 N
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& E4 e/ I" m0 R, _+ j n
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 X5 H p! j; ]# U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% z' F. q2 x4 D' S
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented8 u" W, W$ J7 y$ B% ^& e
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard w" m7 s, Z2 }1 B; Z. m1 S
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
. m ~! s6 G/ i! z/ V( x% v% T3 A) bFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. o) `: f. ]" c8 q6 R. Wcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& |' Z( q3 e7 ]# E6 e
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. C6 c& e- f. k
/ |3 j. Z/ Y& _2 h <<# Q& @9 {8 @8 h5 |3 a
Highlights from across Canada:
9 I- g/ c; U* R6 `
6 K( @/ Y. G* l$ b; r0 E - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% B% ?* f# N( @7 }* H5 }6 E
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 Y9 f+ s* p5 { home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound9 T& u h+ C- ^: D; P* a
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 O- ~, h% \+ S3 n/ I" [9 R since about the middle of 2007.
0 G* g/ O$ A' w( P# F9 ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
* I% r8 L; i8 l# [) R8 b+ E frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
9 ~/ Z$ Q& U( }9 K4 N( C1 x, y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still ?6 t/ A+ _' U
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
I& ~6 M% m' s$ O poor affordability levels.
; j5 W- j7 y5 l5 P @& Y - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 C' G) _5 t6 b" ^4 P& k vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- R3 A2 S5 B2 x! H
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.3 g) J# Q7 P7 r8 x6 i. K. s
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: t# m, V% K5 }" N
minimize any downside risks.5 ]) | b) c" y0 H/ e# n, i
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' Q$ c6 ?2 o! L# U; V, u3 V
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 J$ U& ^" Q. k
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 o3 |. @" L3 ]" `% `; b9 d 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 L- z5 o) w+ {# |5 O
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 Q$ ?. G2 M) i( i
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# U# @! b2 J1 d
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
+ p! x6 ?2 ~4 w0 s far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 f# }+ t' d+ W
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 b* z; R" B Z9 _$ J ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 S% {5 G2 [4 G! D1 j/ i# h" ]8 K modestly in recent years., c/ d9 ^9 c5 S7 D8 V
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 p2 i [" i. E) c
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
* m# i/ q- }7 B- ? spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 ~. Q- r: x" |' j4 M6 U price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
4 R1 ^( s6 b* L5 k1 K1 Y- \# z following two years of deterioration.
5 L! C2 H& ^$ `- ~ >> |
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