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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ }- M& ^; p3 P5 v+ N+ T% L TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& d. d/ K' P" A. s, W1 Smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 L, t% |" r, L# Q; [gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,' b' u9 s& V1 o% |& x4 k
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( I2 r% T/ U! B3 b2 X "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! L, l& {, @( u6 ^$ p" @6 Q) b8 O: z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- j0 ^( T7 V1 r( k
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) j/ o9 I. A& C* ?+ [2 `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 O C! c$ G4 D8 F) K3 U
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 f+ t5 T3 [; K9 bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& F6 y5 J4 d8 A2 i# o' Uwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 V8 X2 ^; M, b6 b6 o" d$ U' vsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) S6 q% \* U7 s, C7 g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ F" E2 ^, ^2 a3 V |proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 D5 h. {; g' z! x" a0 }% }" l& Xhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: a ?' U: `9 f# g7 j" y# R7 {" hAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( r* A" y, ]) f4 Y- _$ C. D! q
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; o w7 K2 W2 d2 v$ T2 E
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: q. ]* z6 W# s$ E. N8 r According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
5 N3 v& b% V& H, H: C: Lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 V- @8 f0 w5 N! H, ], z9 Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* q8 D/ p9 U$ [! u% [) F. J7 Ohistorically depressed levels.7 S# |8 T; b5 Q9 F
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 y5 [$ z$ P" {
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 }2 X ^) E' w/ J7 qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, f3 ^4 j m- _ ^/ Bhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This# Z0 ~+ C. |9 m2 J6 n, `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 I4 e: p! T% N; N
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 C% P. e) r8 z$ F% Q8 S* ?) O9 V RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 i$ J) u9 s& W0 F1 K) {; p
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 L$ h$ |$ L( C: H' j
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; e% g6 w$ C' u) s" b7 G
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) @0 `" d1 ^ I4 l- u7 l X% l
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' G/ m; v$ B9 M& U: m/ r. U7 R
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only! v6 d6 u6 v9 E6 X/ `: e8 E
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 u( r! f* W$ n$ Z1 z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 Y: t+ i! J5 }( K0 C
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property w$ V0 T7 p6 z4 L
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 b. R2 Y9 ?: ~/ A% E" D
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; b* w' z7 i k% l8 d
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ u2 X+ \. I% B6 I5 M/ d5 fFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' ~- X: \2 d% W% L* M4 x |7 l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 v6 h# a8 e4 E5 T: X1 ^4 zper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& R9 D- G: z v' F- r& ]0 Y
; M" P" s2 \# x" O* {* c
<<, O, K( r r; a" N9 y
Highlights from across Canada:
/ b3 I8 i2 i+ O E- b; M" o5 B8 W* B" u2 r+ B/ f v
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 N4 R% u/ l6 ? intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ f2 L9 \' {" u# I$ J" ?; a- G
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: N5 {% g( ]" W Y+ q( ~+ r2 F
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 p+ H5 x5 l e" Z4 u
since about the middle of 2007.6 i% o" T# f* q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
h$ k/ k: z% N2 ~4 d) Q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 V% _1 y4 {: Z4 f- e" R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! V# o1 ~: M& V largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% s, S& }" L$ a* x) F. R$ `( N8 y poor affordability levels.# o G9 A2 ^: U7 w; N; c* q& [# ?
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) @. Y7 O( {6 p) h
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 R: ~; n' ~3 H! E1 d/ I# o prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 y. G1 I* L4 A" Q5 a& K7 u8 A, z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 X+ e, Z3 r5 R4 e( x
minimize any downside risks.$ b f9 v3 y* p/ e
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market# q z: V6 x# @6 i+ e
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 L. h' v7 C0 c0 ] z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ u- g' Z0 d' f; A' t) Z- }7 z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 O9 w/ l- _, @; I8 C# \ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: _ f e5 X1 ^1 s - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# [ z. j1 D3 Z1 u- \ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 ]0 f t& {& x* }5 W- w, s far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 g5 C8 N6 Z' F& y: p# N b8 |
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 E0 x" a$ C4 S( ]6 F+ \1 d) \
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: R7 D: `7 u+ D/ N2 I) G G
modestly in recent years.4 D$ x" {6 k: q8 `* n z3 G
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the7 c% I( g* u6 z) v+ Y. @5 K
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; }) j4 t( a2 A3 I( E" e
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, n1 w& }" j! {
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- P2 W% H. S, v, ^& J$ r
following two years of deterioration.& q7 y1 K3 x* T) _, A
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