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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( b9 }# @1 ^, x2 z+ Z' @3 N, i& ] TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
" f7 F6 S, u1 tmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
r' U+ V$ p6 L/ S; Q# v% jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 O5 b( U7 O$ `/ y' u5 f/ g+ t
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
2 g; U- p# V4 J8 Z; e+ b1 R "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- y8 z }: Y) `8 f' Osaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ D' |( q& Z5 X3 _. y. g8 ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. q# j2 F, u- N `/ qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") ?& h2 ~2 R* {& q6 q7 e1 G
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is) i }. a2 Y! o: `& T* H) ]$ I
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
' ~% e3 G+ [" a# a$ |( G/ x) Cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' o, O1 f: X6 L% p0 F: h& ?
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: a0 ^4 R( Q+ ^8 q5 E, j o4 w The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the; ?0 `9 R& L( L* d D6 C* D1 H. R2 r
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! J0 @. _* H+ l" lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
, V6 i2 I, _1 i) K* S S4 p+ l! sAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 W3 R9 l. b) F* f- V+ k* g& jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# j' C0 R- [7 r4 ] f8 w+ b
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 x/ l) D3 ]4 s6 D) L! U4 U
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: |% ]5 ^' j8 h/ k# Y w- ^; omay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! M; l$ J$ u+ {
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% |7 ~: Z! e6 a
historically depressed levels.2 f, F& P& m! K1 U5 b
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 P- e+ O9 {# Q! `0 Sof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& q% d: c# X$ s" y
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 I9 ` w* a, _$ c9 [/ }1 V- a
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 e4 g- O9 H; `! N
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. {8 G# c1 k; M u+ |4 B5 K
months ahead," added Hogue.
6 c7 f4 a$ p3 s" R5 Z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 p. d6 f# f' C1 `* q; \9 `
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ t" |: i. j! z4 t! g, }6 q4 h
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
x. m( t" u* f' m1 B5 P$ p" z The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for" _7 S5 t# S/ |# Q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' j1 p7 V, k: N+ fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 ^$ i$ M$ A8 r! {, l5 Y+ @
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account. I' D' c" A2 g9 L% m O
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. h3 [4 V/ @3 L) xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 y# G& {+ D- mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: P; e0 \: H% N0 Y, t2 aincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard! i% B- b4 L; p& p. ?
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; J1 ?- \+ ?+ C6 W( Z. c
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 `7 T* [' Y9 k# Acosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 508 }( w1 k' {6 V0 y- G
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 W' j0 E: k; _% T# I j# X+ k* ^. a/ w M9 B0 K/ T
<<
- k0 x% ?1 m! y1 i Highlights from across Canada:
) g! b/ u& ^* n5 B" e0 G. D; U: T9 f" y4 j3 x, q- q, ^8 A4 R
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! S( W3 y4 U0 Y" q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) F: }4 ], T; x1 H
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' Z' d+ q) }9 w; q, ]. j
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! F- ]) F8 U. G$ j, x( d9 V! D
since about the middle of 2007.
* I# ?! y4 J. j# r$ a1 K! f - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, E% J" p, S1 v$ U r
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to5 K8 K* c2 u$ _: L2 R. n
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
7 n$ {# q: R$ Y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 B$ J+ O: H6 Z& t3 \; [& u
poor affordability levels.1 P! H$ \9 L1 C) N8 X. x& `8 N! r* L: ~
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 v) K# X- T( Q; b! T( e# M. }3 M9 P
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 @& D9 e \' X1 f$ m prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.' ]* o' o& d, c6 e( C' k+ O& }
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 }" N8 x W3 b! J5 R1 Z+ D
minimize any downside risks.$ b/ E! X7 [' j3 e3 y B; ?% i
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 m" k( Z& F/ T6 j4 I conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" l- b; i/ w: Q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& }$ E) x: [5 k
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 I# P9 p, d h. Z( Y. |* Q0 u$ T being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 m+ W+ \( T3 u5 k n1 r2 _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" J W! @; i% ?- G$ _ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ r7 D0 X' }* A* O( f+ L far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) o2 o& n* v# z- |4 z" d7 f% B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 Z* z& a( ?3 ^4 U
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only2 h4 C% n: w. @; k' T9 q
modestly in recent years.
; n3 _7 b c& w' d- s: x$ h - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) U: C- n$ y6 Z6 M. P
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* k( y: O* y' c6 o
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 c$ m" m& I$ o0 E. N% @
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability8 N% ?0 |9 d$ ?* B
following two years of deterioration.
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