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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; ~& U0 m T" z) d0 h p
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, u% y* ~7 U0 [3 S' U8 \- B9 G. Omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* e# v. ]2 N7 igains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 U# ]& N, A: ~1 maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 E# Y! ^' D4 ?
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 f1 n2 a# y& E* G% g5 b% r3 F+ Ssaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ c" O" f/ i5 v3 uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability' D8 @, P1 w% T* Y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
6 ~8 k: X+ I$ C RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% }! r$ H+ F: F1 L5 H) N
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,; e. F& f) l6 b! t8 \
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 K% j, T: x% Qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." d3 L6 I C" B; c" m6 H
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. C5 e4 H& \2 x3 N* A' I+ K" P5 Q. r9 S
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! ?# O% B5 V b! Z9 f/ l1 e* Ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& m" R5 x2 h& R% X6 _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% a+ V' c9 X. c4 B* _. {4 D5 V1 a \standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( y( U0 \- L9 A% k% Xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
! [0 }; H& t% N/ v) H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! ?2 L3 S7 H3 x8 o$ k8 [+ mmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in: ^) ^( n1 x8 ^7 a8 j; c
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, {8 R6 m) U" _& L$ w1 \
historically depressed levels.6 s1 \9 |, M) l( p0 P
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 P% p) O1 X. X' p/ a4 s
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 T& n( j% O% k" K& o; `) N/ r; Z+ P- }prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
x( O* ~. I0 U8 g/ k! `8 C* phands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This T% ~3 I( O# y; ~2 |5 j8 q
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the C' z: k) E* {8 B c1 ?8 E8 r
months ahead," added Hogue.
0 H# p) k4 l7 N/ } RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
6 ~0 K& Y9 a0 X2 n7 X! Mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) ?% F& n- G6 t+ T2 K4 U42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) T$ P% z/ Q& w3 ~' N& m1 T# E9 l The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
9 \& m' d1 L9 e Ca broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 P% J4 a" U/ k* e- Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' I1 j l: _% W6 @! v, K! _
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' P$ ~8 G& `; l The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
) `. b) U( N/ Rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 R3 M0 w: c4 u1 K: vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ r* X+ ^9 B1 h1 y
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 u. b. g. y( B& Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! @* N# }, c9 [$ i5 Y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* ?, D0 o" A' \8 |- V7 R
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ ?# [( ]6 \4 e0 t1 x9 i8 ?per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ f8 X, e0 f8 `+ l ~
2 r) g7 h5 {" Z4 a* j. V <<
) z$ P; P/ n: {: S Highlights from across Canada:
/ x- `" B0 t9 I8 q6 N4 S. p1 U' Z9 p6 _7 o/ r; B2 v q; y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* i% R7 ]& ]: g5 s B* ^1 F
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 y1 C# Q/ p0 o8 r4 a7 z! Y
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 i5 R) t+ Q5 z f* v0 b
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
A8 C# t1 l6 `9 ` since about the middle of 2007.
! k6 E' ] ]* B3 P - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 w3 [7 c: p; [/ P, f5 \ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
- T" b' n9 ]6 F/ [: N decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 a7 B2 x" M# H! ]) w6 g: G largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* Z! t2 _9 o$ s5 B) L a7 M poor affordability levels.& I( |% s3 v# N# F
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# r* a& R" K t! ^ o
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" {- {' @9 d; f7 C- A3 d prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" D' q4 m p/ O6 {* U* q Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
2 ]2 c1 }3 j5 W. Y0 {6 R* O5 v minimize any downside risks.
$ p8 t: M% [! T6 S i k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. f, k5 W6 }4 ~( _( l5 m
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; I, n+ B1 r# N0 l2 t# ] unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 M( f V% T* d
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 a/ L9 E2 E2 ~% Q# l! K4 @0 b" b
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 H* E* ]7 Q0 {( A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 O) b) r7 g) u q. Q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' h q/ x# l3 [* k8 s6 D
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, A$ A) m( `+ g reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* s" N* ?3 O, v2 N+ A8 N. a ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
. z- j- q' ]; q0 s6 q. W modestly in recent years.1 M$ O$ {" u% p2 C0 I" r: a) W
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the7 n! C, E; n4 |& v, Q6 T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! i6 _0 A* j8 ^+ u5 O, t
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% X3 j( h( H: B
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
! E5 a' ~2 d( L/ j) F7 \* T7 V3 d following two years of deterioration.) K- ~- O9 T' d3 \% u% q
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