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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & Q' O% E4 @( S
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the1 v, I2 ~+ T4 L) Q1 U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) k; Y! H+ a8 K5 `5 t7 ?gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
_7 j/ @! N: K3 a/ Haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics., Q! j+ J0 L7 n0 R& q3 D& @, e
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,") Q7 W0 ?9 b' T2 y- b- [) p
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
, n. J' M1 e, d( x/ Y' Y1 S [improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 ^6 |( w+ P8 z6 [- O9 ]
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& Y/ N2 }* }: T2 B( I* r
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& F$ i; _2 k+ Q- R/ q0 |3 R# u: _worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,. N Q3 t! h9 A7 O0 C
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have! D3 [" E; I0 x% x5 g c
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; O. r+ Y4 e8 I" }+ O& |4 C The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& c* y2 k: q& F0 N9 b: t6 c3 `- A
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a' C+ W. w4 w0 a
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" w/ l; L1 A( q$ m! R6 JAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( X/ @$ M- t, q( W6 O& Y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and0 P4 [: _0 P& `1 M& F
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 U$ a5 X$ Y5 y; f" o
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 j* s# }4 E! r$ smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
d9 V# P6 b6 Z, hthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# \. @% c( R5 d8 ? B
historically depressed levels.6 h2 g: g9 i' @: x
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: Z! [& m1 O. x% Zof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
p; x0 L& F' P1 W: V5 E! J. jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ n: H: U+ L S
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 r. _: U$ i+ i5 l* G5 yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" T0 k4 A/ D7 j1 E cmonths ahead," added Hogue.
% Z X9 D+ i9 A; a8 m1 C, m RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
w% X, q# M( h, l' [' J* P, lcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; Z: |5 D8 o* _42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& N8 ]! R0 S9 Z4 y3 G! y3 Q- G [
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) ~1 P* N. ^5 i& l, l) {a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ Z" J) s/ B/ q! N- h2 J) \& w4 }( p
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* E$ q& t9 V* m* i+ Y# R% B/ o& h
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.# Q6 J, h9 ], q+ u3 V$ P
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ q1 Y2 D* w; Y
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property- b) ?+ G9 b3 q# R$ h! J
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ t: K5 B7 g7 ^$ u: Oincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ V1 N6 a* p N0 K
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 O4 ]- K6 k1 G$ Y& Z. dFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership+ h* F4 G6 ~; Q% w8 G. U" f
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 g5 \$ a: h! { K0 x9 nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# A. j" N6 ]; f% }8 T
1 l2 q' S+ l. ?! q. }+ V% L6 Q/ j <<$ q, G9 w' | n Z6 p# ?) V+ q
Highlights from across Canada:
+ K$ F* T$ F4 n0 m- n0 F9 G# L* a/ T% r! H9 l
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" p" B; a/ u \# e/ w1 } intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing# s7 X y' H- S% z+ N6 F
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' m1 C4 x7 ^+ t$ m4 r
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; m/ F$ k" r- t, e8 Q since about the middle of 2007.& M- Z6 u* R! p5 m% E
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 v1 ~% ~% e% ?! s. H6 \2 U% N3 ^ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ @+ R5 v! O: D8 |& a$ G9 x decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 X9 i) T% H1 y
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, j" y/ w8 Z! g) S l+ C" D
poor affordability levels.
( X; |1 P# k$ k' G! ^ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; Q0 [* a/ I& \- `7 ?; z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( y& t& f W* w% l prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ W2 `! O) W/ y1 J4 H Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to9 @. o$ L$ p- k
minimize any downside risks.+ p& i! E' }2 C+ m- ^8 k( W# {
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! X, q$ o8 j: w6 p' U6 s
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 _, w' A* U! T h+ r' z" ]6 W unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 M% r: u0 t) k" C7 |" Y 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) T4 d1 U# V* B being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 c# h7 ^4 b: B
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in' z1 l6 T+ G8 d: ]' p" ?
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 v b! {3 Z3 o0 m- R$ L far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. ~; d6 ? z4 y2 x( r4 K3 X reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. Z9 q+ D) K* b m& F ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only2 Z* l0 v/ Q' L, ~. N
modestly in recent years.
* u9 G) c+ w! B' J* i ^& q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( H: X0 }! ]3 H* P5 O# A
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 t6 Y, P$ w7 b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 H2 ^0 M7 ~: ~& k) L
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 Y4 o7 e- x) X8 r6 L. l5 `
following two years of deterioration.
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