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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC $ i4 D1 G4 h7 R
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* A/ N) K" x4 \! C M
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 r; O, L6 R1 w# `! mgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- ~! h" c+ w& G" C" R5 v# S
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' X3 w4 \! D" u# I6 `" E& p3 d a5 N "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,". H" T, N6 Q- \/ Q u9 [% t
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
* r# |8 \4 r- U* S5 |2 v1 Z7 Gimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 {' Q% |+ ?3 Y" _% i
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."0 l2 ^5 i( _* M2 u; `5 G
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, E- y+ ]6 C7 v8 B/ A! {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) P5 |! i! M- |2 ~" d% k( n7 H
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; `6 K3 b1 Z& t4 E9 [; y0 v' V4 J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
# ~3 H& t' s: h6 z$ ~ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' t7 B$ z ~' R/ k- o. s
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 V" h$ ~, [0 Z& ?home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ t1 l. c5 Z7 M) s) s- q w' W( k
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ {) U1 Y" }9 M6 F4 ?) d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 V! r1 |; h# v) P( s
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' `) L0 } \% d% V; M$ S According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
9 A/ T x+ v; D) a+ l6 V$ nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
' Y* z' k/ W+ N8 ]6 ~the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" y( X! k l( Uhistorically depressed levels.- V' A- K# O7 e* N% s) J
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% t7 q4 v, B/ ^- m* Iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 R5 b {7 t/ ]& \0 @8 x
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- n$ Z1 e2 T/ _; {! P- x
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% `' l2 }; C, L2 _3 ?# K# }# i; r- nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( @. {! ^8 g1 g; B* {0 [, \
months ahead," added Hogue.; R9 Y6 |- z- r; a" ^
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest: [9 ~' i m0 I. i8 N' [
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& `/ T3 v- [7 v" b) o$ ^6 ^) G% g42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! \ ~9 |+ N5 Q' ~/ A! y The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
, f- ~- l: u+ \ Z' f& ]5 ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' O2 D% [4 J9 m9 b5 ~% V7 Rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 u- T, i7 W( h0 n; p2 c" \) f
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., _; d3 A% ]/ T3 L+ J
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 S6 o5 F' K* m# i) N/ X
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 W+ |9 K& S4 Z4 z7 Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 s5 Y- [& A% v* }) \' sincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 d9 Q, ^2 Q2 {4 ^; hcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 k& [# z7 s& c/ T4 X; }
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" }! M& B7 e' S* l0 m" ]7 a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 Y% e( v' R1 N7 z$ R+ T5 ]1 T/ Oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* |( n! E8 e+ l& r: y
9 o- i1 g) `5 P& ?6 k( v6 E, D4 o2 a3 L <<
' B# V8 }- l$ u) ?; { Highlights from across Canada:
% F1 X' Q$ p) ?, z' e: C+ h4 w$ R+ }, T9 ]/ t
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 G2 `. Q% n: N) R intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing% G' ~: V; W" c7 ^! ^, @! E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; @- K2 n8 ^3 S only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- Q" P3 W: U/ e" P1 q- k1 }
since about the middle of 2007.4 n, ?$ v! z6 O: S
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
# ?; ]& D9 n! b( X$ f9 p frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
3 h9 o3 z5 x2 Z+ D4 L5 P decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ C3 W" u" a. M) S7 i
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
5 B: j. [- T2 t4 w poor affordability levels.% p j0 O, c$ ^3 }! B, i! z' P
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) f# G1 V- h" G1 Q- {1 G. N$ @
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" S5 j& U" k) C/ F9 w
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." S8 A0 d3 t; W# |: p4 R
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to! c! Q; m, ]9 j+ H
minimize any downside risks.
! B; v5 C+ ?* _7 k+ T! { - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& d4 e. O% U% m4 b
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 P7 E! D7 [! R' d4 z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early0 c+ w8 I3 D! V6 d) Z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 `* H+ a, {2 F7 Q, e being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 @7 z; V9 S" e/ e0 \ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: W+ B9 O$ `7 x3 |6 B( I+ T Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus8 B' K/ n- E( J9 C# @9 q6 J1 y; m
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up8 ?3 K" [0 a& n! M4 a! S1 \
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 d) J5 j, c/ O" c4 q3 {9 ]) M5 z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
[& |6 O" k3 N; |# h( _, X6 x modestly in recent years.- W h/ z7 |; H3 G
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 b; Y( R! t! ~8 r k6 e% N
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; U: w$ D3 ~" ^: X) X+ s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& v% C3 C8 K0 H3 e' l4 u
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability t! p& M8 E U& G7 v4 N
following two years of deterioration.
& G8 J, `' X1 ?8 ^ >> |
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