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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & [+ r+ L9 K" [5 q. B
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 F$ `5 z+ Z* a; jmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" g; K! o* C' z. m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
; } o" ?/ P; \( @' P9 aaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. w& F+ Z$ n) b/ m
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"" O8 P$ t* }+ A/ ]; C
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" W% v8 ^' Y. r, Y& R$ X+ Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ @7 N$ f/ K+ k- i! ^measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") `7 d& R' k4 u$ _( g3 L$ v
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, s" `+ d8 \/ d# }& y3 Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. ?1 h+ G) D/ i2 y8 gwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 `$ ]1 ^& P6 |& E% g& k8 O: U
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* ~( w! N% G3 l* Y. s$ c The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
, ]1 _( @8 k1 P: A' z, nproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a5 P! O- x. L9 p
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ G7 @( r" b! I f7 r& m1 j
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: B7 b1 |- k1 i/ c- lstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
5 r/ M. t, F8 m0 k1 @+ i$ Vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.4 m) v) u, H3 n
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ t" Q. b. e+ Imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! N* O0 ]! a% Y* y4 a
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) ^8 ^$ y3 ^1 ^6 ]/ l5 u& \* p+ s$ T) ?
historically depressed levels.
9 X& m8 H% d: t2 f2 q9 [( ?. j Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost* q4 U$ L1 f7 L/ I, x
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 ]; }* L! H, [1 i$ n- W; Jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( e! J0 _9 G$ g
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 d8 ^" J! k1 I7 Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 s! _3 N) k$ I, ]2 Y4 e- ^; Z
months ahead," added Hogue.
9 B d9 D N' a' K% T RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest/ D0 U7 u6 r2 {6 e0 L9 i
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, R1 G& ?8 I$ r
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. m* i# `& d' F: O. v- ?
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% m- b3 t' y2 ~: R; a7 sa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these. J. [ Q. P* W0 T' b" \' g: n
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 A- l; v. \& m" l1 c* j% wtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., E8 C, Z4 S4 \" m
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# s7 a4 F. R/ Q; [* fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' e4 K4 |8 s- q- m% g2 F1 s
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' N7 A/ h6 C' s, E4 C+ eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. S1 Z: k; E1 t) }
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
& d" [' _ b) VFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 {" u! j l1 n7 t3 m8 v' S- Icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 u, h$ T6 {: i1 t: r; U5 X' d' N
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* s- K ~9 W' S$ l9 R; s, O3 p
3 u( E& e5 W( u0 D7 _6 U <<# a2 i/ {7 V; R5 }. I
Highlights from across Canada:+ a/ r1 o( h1 W# g. U7 { ~* R
- E) D" W9 [) n, \1 o! q+ I - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* O4 \0 q, R4 A
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
7 w$ ^& p6 E* k% a, N) M home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* ?4 G% ~* V3 w% y7 @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ o m" v" m+ y7 ~5 \0 V! ?6 f since about the middle of 2007.8 ]4 P" z+ f/ e- o7 @+ F6 K+ N( L
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 U' Z1 X. e! F; D frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' c- V3 R" k% S5 O* d
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
+ q/ e3 l1 j! }3 |& t( n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. g4 T, Q; ~; V% l
poor affordability levels.
, c2 D2 T4 ^. l+ i& j+ x - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' M. x9 @8 b, w: X2 e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
0 a; Z; p% B4 c/ ~. i- M# C prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly., f1 Q% d# R: c% d3 i9 q+ |4 S, X# k2 p
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ x* t: X f/ e7 h$ G% X' W
minimize any downside risks.! P/ D1 k7 X+ K
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
- I& I- W: r' x; }9 z conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 {. j, z) G7 B4 o8 n
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' E/ `9 `4 c8 D! [
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& K2 o3 |9 N7 n/ b$ Q- M
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
~( ~1 l9 H) s - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in I9 B- C" `: f9 q. Q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 z0 S5 H N+ i6 P0 ?2 y far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
" {# U9 h# m% u* D8 N& @ R3 ^) u reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
9 R- [+ w5 l) {% [' Y7 `0 g5 s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) s1 R7 K- F/ V. W3 z modestly in recent years.
/ d$ V# ~ c: F( Y, e - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* G6 B5 X! n, h$ I7 T: r- J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 k& K: K9 [0 X7 t: G. l9 I1 i spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ U8 M7 _/ X) ]' H
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability& ]1 I1 K( `$ I4 i8 i6 _( M
following two years of deterioration.
, w% K& ]" k1 S- s) z9 B >> |
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