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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC , M- Z6 ^. o9 C" }0 `4 |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* O6 Y/ }9 h. g% s) ?8 Z
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ o2 C8 R8 _, Mgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 M3 V- c# j& `' B9 J$ d( Kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 N& ]" r; P9 c- N( p, B w8 G
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 G( o6 a2 M! Q' D) p% s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
% N% G! d' A9 J8 W* r. Fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# P% m+ [* ~. |! z0 A' Kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."% l# ?/ X( r& z2 R D l1 E
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
H9 n& C7 k: E) [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 A9 n% w4 D# X: w2 y; cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& R$ ^& _' f& F% gsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.1 l: Y, ~* R1 i1 R
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: A4 E% V. W1 Z6 n+ o" M2 cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 O- L5 D/ H' ]2 X1 ]home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
( D1 g4 Y9 t4 kAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ b' B; N. ^6 x3 S) A* F
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. M( H+ V( [$ ^6 L4 K% N( k/ ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* N. f+ X: d9 v, ^6 p0 t% D% r$ ~
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 n( ?, K! S( S6 x( o* T- D7 P" A, g
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' {: v4 u0 a9 E- Q$ G w
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 h# t; l" c) f) s/ i6 k
historically depressed levels.
) B' K% m' |- p V4 G+ C Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" _. ~, r. `$ L: S- h
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 f- h4 O, y+ \
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" j6 ?/ }4 x. i) L$ c
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' }$ N) ^2 p" a9 Q& Q- P( nenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ ~0 d! I; [) U
months ahead," added Hogue.
" B, I. C" F7 Q- N RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* q* M' b0 @& w, w
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 ~& X* A& ^! O w; X42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 T( D9 T; o0 }6 S9 R+ B( d
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. t) ]% r4 a4 D. v( N+ H7 N
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- B1 o; ?+ Z$ f5 R
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% l# F: e8 _! v( n2 ^0 I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 h! Q' A; y# z% k0 i The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 p0 ]' P! N$ H; Z5 L) U, S0 [
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property0 l) u% l- h% d9 W8 o# }0 O
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* ?3 ], J, ]4 g4 b& y7 h6 ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( c1 N* f5 N' B# U$ M" o
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
G; P. B" H8 _" w( {( ~For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership% e1 Z$ i4 Z; @+ E7 E; V. C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
' L4 A0 |+ s7 S* X! z. q3 f. Q7 Gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 h( S7 ^, H/ k* C# l; l0 c5 a) g
" \" y5 g+ ^6 S2 ^/ } <<3 g8 ?4 y' Y0 q' u8 [3 r
Highlights from across Canada:
8 ? m* }/ C# D. ?* y' M# P8 S7 G' `
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ Q; s" N2 ]! N; w1 {( V intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 @3 b" }7 r E6 z" {# F$ ]/ v: G
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! J5 [8 F4 z1 C/ o
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# r6 \3 E I5 {( j' Y% n0 J$ M
since about the middle of 2007.
3 K; J6 y2 [4 X# H" Y - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
1 s& e4 n S/ L: U: }( f frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 g+ V/ {/ Q4 u) u5 |
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' S8 B/ m8 I) o8 d largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' u: J9 S- E( r! S8 e
poor affordability levels.
3 P& A9 X, O( o/ W - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. |7 w; v5 y+ O$ E, M5 I vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ i K3 Y7 g- I' V
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ z% t+ ^( A5 }( i& R Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to- ~( x" d J. R- P% d+ a
minimize any downside risks.
( y) ^# w6 l% t( a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market* K) M& Y/ `6 F
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 |- y2 y, \( u- l8 F. c
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* ?- M( m$ x2 F7 Y" @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ j1 Y+ |5 Y7 A% {# B7 a# } U
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 J. G! D2 ~' o |2 x* r; b - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% r) H% t# D" F) `% f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
, Y) i* r) Q/ K4 P far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 _7 g. b, A0 D% X! w reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; F2 G' y5 l+ E' H5 p6 C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 c9 }* M- S( R: O' p$ t
modestly in recent years.
, M9 w" X9 w+ I! D; G% @ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) K+ {, G% |/ g8 |. y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! I- q/ N3 M& r; Q/ u3 | spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ m: A. {0 }0 @; ~% L' l/ h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 Z: P/ U- F' }) o4 P0 \( b0 Y
following two years of deterioration.
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