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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 |5 Z2 M& }* v: } TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 ]1 i) D/ I) s+ imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 R7 y6 G p' T) |. F1 |+ |
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
) P" E# m8 }( F- q. S D8 I8 yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ K7 r) E" P4 h- o! a6 h* b7 h6 Q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% O: g0 O6 J4 [8 ?' a! Z
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 `% j+ L3 u% F! nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
6 {% O( F! D! P$ I! Ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 u% ], z5 K5 E5 @7 T# L RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 v. m, H6 P5 oworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
5 C3 B0 \# N \9 W2 Bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% } t O+ P) r& F
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" r+ I4 T7 c/ [- [ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: E* i+ z$ z }9 J! Eproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. \4 F' B: A( H0 r+ o2 V
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008." _3 E, ?+ m' ^0 p( X; S: Y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 E" h9 D; m" I. o0 o" e' K
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 J$ l3 |3 {3 @& p$ \, ^9 e
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
T9 k* N2 x, A& K7 }2 ? According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
8 \: v, J7 y+ Y( R: O- F: vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. W. p1 _5 y8 e+ ?* K: o" Fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
; d+ {+ Z0 e" P4 a+ u: Thistorically depressed levels.
0 w% m) U2 B3 D, c2 M; G. L Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, D# a8 `/ w2 w$ A1 h! }- {, xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
. @6 p4 X- r/ E- F F% a/ t3 |3 F. L8 Bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 A0 E- b* r, S4 a
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This2 Q6 ]* \: w; w3 f# T6 p1 B$ u
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: P& S9 k, |9 W' I4 q
months ahead," added Hogue.4 Z* K7 l" v+ X3 c8 H, _. h) U3 I0 b
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest" t+ e* w4 V+ I" L4 c# p
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 c3 k9 r9 h d) a5 ^42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.' ~0 r* |+ D" w& U" r* z9 w
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 e3 G2 v* x: e! q( O! {; ?a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( k6 a j+ i' P, q. Ocities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 H( G3 F( v' g! ?takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 \- k/ B& u, _: N8 o/ L2 Y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 c3 X+ N0 D* F" s: ~
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
6 h/ T/ A* {" l# D8 [( T% f4 B9 Abenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
@5 @6 f& v' n+ h- F2 kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" l7 @/ f( A- n6 Q7 ?
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
4 } z" R' `8 i7 ^* T" E( m: rFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
2 o0 m: Y9 U+ qcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 u- x! R2 u$ L) i/ m3 c8 x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 u/ [: d6 G- [5 x: q
1 J( {: a4 `" f* E <<' w& [' J1 U& S" F3 O
Highlights from across Canada:
$ w! p, X* c: Q. g8 n; v2 ~; M3 `( g* Q; C1 E3 M
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ u: ]0 V+ a6 q( B# j
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing! X# z0 g: I( ]7 C1 C; B7 C/ n7 A* N
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( ^0 d4 w: _6 P* ? only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 P& M7 ?: F8 I& z1 ^& V
since about the middle of 2007.
# A% N# {7 d6 P) L' C' ]2 m: M2 y - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
: C$ W; Y4 m* [; h0 a9 P frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
5 e/ H/ ?6 ~1 l! ?$ N9 N decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" |- v5 h. i/ D
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely/ D" `! f( h8 c
poor affordability levels.' C+ s7 e, q3 R" U4 C# S, A
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; u$ `* D' h+ v# U: }- g
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 o- R4 z6 J) W
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 x' m) ]4 r! M' H! `' Y: l2 i6 Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to" M3 @$ ]- D. B% E
minimize any downside risks.7 W# o- v( R2 Q5 G r0 E
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# G3 y7 }3 `" \+ _) P conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 u7 h, x3 }% J' M unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 N" l3 Y0 N8 Y9 g 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. N! W5 O3 h; ~ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
; j7 J! \% `6 c' F8 V - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
( B7 l6 _" {! z& L, { Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& O( K& P- A7 u2 J" L
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 o" [# n4 ^7 D2 f
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
, y3 d$ K- m3 O$ ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
3 C* K& X# S4 [- G0 U% C5 k modestly in recent years.
' F2 I: s* P7 Z6 _5 \0 Z5 @- _ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the# R6 P1 X' V5 [% o0 e# k
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 a- m+ R/ n$ T
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 P6 ], a. I! Q; }2 o price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! g0 q1 {5 C6 m# _$ o6 Y
following two years of deterioration.
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