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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( e" Z" W L" z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( O& k3 b5 s" N: {. I, L. Y% L8 smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
, C! ?: H& F, i) hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 H( c7 {- \2 b2 iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.! @1 k( F" J0 P$ g0 \
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"" `2 R6 S$ u @! M) n
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is, R+ b! V7 k; h! r3 m/ M! p: z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 I; z$ i7 i: @; N. y O7 ]' pmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.", B1 D+ d* e, ]9 p/ y% G* K
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 f5 E8 |# M2 h5 N8 s8 j5 X3 u' rworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
5 R- l0 X- }: @# awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ q' i& Q" H8 U$ G& ~4 ?. P! `5 P
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, P2 E& E+ |4 ` |1 K7 p3 @ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 k+ \8 l8 m* t
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
, X. |) {, \/ ?home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 _; S' x# c4 A# mAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( o( o& U2 N0 b f( {standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ z% P" S% l) [* W
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. B" J) o& Y' {: _% T4 `
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' v5 u4 i$ B- L8 w6 k3 z- Smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 y: P6 A. R4 I* s
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 H2 o( M' [, y2 \# d; Z8 fhistorically depressed levels.7 L. T6 B% W3 X$ ?# F- d
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost; u: }/ l3 I d8 V8 m
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& N* k; @( G: f ?/ m* i. t
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
# P8 E P2 s1 @* g4 vhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
}; x: y$ {2 g* g0 z7 n7 Uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, v. A; c, G5 G" w; p: xmonths ahead," added Hogue.# k7 |& Z3 g) H& J
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, A8 V) e* W6 n Y
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: ?$ B4 B' I2 @4 d- i% S* H) c
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 k$ i" c9 x$ J3 @ C6 D
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. v- n. l' A! C2 p- j8 O# U0 za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 t% {' y% m3 `
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
( N$ q* V. z6 t: U1 o7 M+ }takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
M" a u0 C$ X9 w# Q) [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 n& b. i! c, _% U1 k, v
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) k! D& E5 @& G9 I$ x. k6 D+ ?benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, ~# `1 E) ]9 r" |/ [2 J
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard k# |5 a9 Y3 |( n2 q7 E
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 [# u8 `% c. i+ P5 b% ZFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 A. S, X7 B/ k* A0 d* F7 ?costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# C& N% j5 C8 j+ ^- m
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# z$ s6 c* d: G' _* N# I: [2 v9 K4 y
+ k3 p) X7 d; q" e <<
4 o3 t7 \' C- u% ]7 @ Highlights from across Canada:
: [$ E+ Z- m; I: A# z4 j
0 d' A; n7 P: Y( O& @) R( }7 \ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 W: E. @7 ?) ?% P& w6 ?4 I- U intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 S# o! o" n) D" M0 V home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! x3 Y2 ~& @5 n
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
" q4 z& K% m, M" E since about the middle of 2007.
. ~" i: F; p3 T" Q4 i1 C" e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
8 I, L8 [3 A* k! S6 g frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& `$ z1 A b0 c5 n decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 C! |2 E4 r3 X/ k
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( w4 M* d7 m, U, ?3 \: g
poor affordability levels.: f w, {* L' F
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 Z, a$ V) P, x1 S2 f2 y( |$ x
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" t/ N$ j0 y' J' k
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" D& v( E8 @- `5 L( Z& Q Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
4 `* h+ P$ Y6 G. ^' L minimize any downside risks.. I8 o: q; w8 a5 \! X$ f- I
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 t1 _0 z. s+ |3 _% j; s
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is! S; Q, \6 p n k
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
. H9 q* r( z4 m& D" ` 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! T9 Y1 h2 ]# v1 s2 A being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.( V0 N/ C) f7 g( }) H
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
9 x3 I. S r6 x6 Z. | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
1 G- w; |5 _; |% N+ M/ L S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 ?/ n, [5 H7 |/ J' G4 o) X5 v5 I
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
, z# w+ ^8 U& F. i9 e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ G( g0 _: V4 \; ?6 ]( i modestly in recent years.
: @) N8 K7 W+ m" K9 x# _) S) Q% @ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& B) J* l6 n" I; F; R: M: S
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: S: X L- n' x) R# s+ p# u& N spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( @6 ~& |" @- ?( |
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& [+ Y$ [ b u. Q) Y2 n following two years of deterioration.
$ `) }7 n! l: _+ o >> |
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