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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ J6 ? i9 U' ?) L9 A0 e: k TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 L( [, N8 e, amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, G6 _/ y) v$ e( P. ~9 ?7 X' U
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
5 I4 D2 Z! [3 L- G7 p" Paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 j8 K+ D$ `+ e( E; m "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 ]# f- k) R! `& Qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ ^, T, b( z8 himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 i% D/ w! @# k. |2 ]' Y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 |' |" U8 o. z: n/ k
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
L3 U( G- ?# Y0 n Iworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- I5 o1 f/ W3 W% Z% s+ K6 wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 ?$ ]8 W. ?5 \- H3 b3 W
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 Q6 L+ t! v/ V The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 M3 n( C* l" f/ x- Z6 b d, E& Z' qproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 h y4 \' [: d% @. F+ H. `9 c/ }home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 j8 Z0 u; f) _3 B
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
0 I# r! V) u( gstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ Z$ e+ b6 b4 Y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 Q8 s7 |) P- p) L! N6 T
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
# T5 f9 u" |/ W tmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. v$ c- R9 ~0 g% sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
2 e) Y- T6 c3 yhistorically depressed levels.
, r. R$ q/ _. K* S2 ^) M Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
`. Q: ]+ f% Q+ d. i iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 n# ]( R* f( t: H1 O3 x' j+ Gprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 v/ W# M; a( _! ], I. F$ Qhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 V+ O! c2 Z4 eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 R% d! r7 s! {( {# d2 s/ W& W
months ahead," added Hogue.* B0 p3 \ x( p( o3 n2 u
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
. a" x; F4 P( J3 S5 R. L1 icities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ ?* b- {6 m; h0 k6 F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
. @2 S/ n8 a; B1 d @4 ? The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! e! R+ T+ l3 k' G, la broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; t) ^. ?& |5 ]; J; v
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& a, a0 X4 m& T& I6 ]- {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account." d! H9 y) B$ p' A( J5 ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& ^5 @- g* V$ W; k% V$ t C! Zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property w' _' ^! s0 ~3 n% G3 R
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: Z. d* X7 ^8 u) v# h% d! s
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( }9 v2 A% j- f3 B0 l! E; ucondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. M/ g Q4 v5 K# Y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 v8 h0 g! X$ P- S7 l+ q& W: lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& m, C* M. `% K8 d! j/ k
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- r1 N+ l- q9 s# J
) r- \! w! N" { <<$ I6 H6 C% I8 R. R& @1 N; i0 R
Highlights from across Canada:- q% L5 {3 {0 B& W, q
2 ^8 v$ @2 }7 B3 {9 i$ Z, B1 @1 S - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has$ e$ W6 B' G! E `; z" c5 F
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 w9 e1 q- ]! L" d1 t i- L/ G home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 {1 ^. y/ R! c; u
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 o/ v2 D9 @7 g. U since about the middle of 2007.9 H& v9 v3 F8 o0 B' b2 l6 y4 | a
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 H* O' m- a9 c0 r" Z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& D9 y m3 N Y3 v6 W6 B2 U decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 i/ K: O9 e ?: j largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ e6 S8 u3 q+ q. ~& K$ ` poor affordability levels.! I# q. z" b: @8 a" |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! x5 v* E) a8 M6 r7 M+ |. ~
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) [9 r3 Q9 c2 P7 `- h
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ r5 l2 a' E7 ~8 \, Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ N$ s$ p* W; c3 w( @' d! F( V minimize any downside risks.
; F( s2 U8 g5 g# H! c- ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 W/ e- | g6 o& U, L conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is. W+ r* Q: R( Z2 }! t
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ B7 e( P% a) D: O7 a4 { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: j0 i+ L9 F t5 R# j
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 e3 P+ _; ~; E* `% c
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
' X3 E0 t: O T8 O# q2 x' V Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus) s: a4 P5 [( ]# N
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 Z1 _/ `6 R3 O9 p* f2 E' J reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# ]- W! N" F& B9 C7 C9 J" Z9 w2 q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 z, j8 q- [$ B8 d1 F, S6 M
modestly in recent years." ]8 }4 `. a V; K7 [) n6 E
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ V: t- r6 b0 X1 I) \8 q( M
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; z' P2 V" [* @2 ]0 e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) w4 ~- \( p @
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
g/ C4 q8 v2 u; ], p; ]1 \ following two years of deterioration.# e1 Z6 q0 @1 c1 | @
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