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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! R/ Z/ Z5 d$ d& U
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& s: c Q" [& Emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 p7 l+ s6 X7 H: W( D
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* q- P" T* l. U( V1 g% V
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
% R9 ?& E; O: r' G6 b "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 T [1 D/ I9 y r! j3 ~; asaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
' ]- h# b6 A* k0 Eimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& ?: P6 W, a. }/ k# gmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."" ~0 a1 E1 x; t0 ^& @
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is ^& k0 {0 p0 o, U1 y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 z4 d/ i2 S! N) G/ T: Bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have# i2 h7 v/ X- l6 y* }" v
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 g$ F- ?6 H# v' p/ X The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 K4 [# O( O( F" bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 G8 w9 x3 P8 S7 P
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
# [7 J" H' ~' mAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
" C; Y7 [* A1 E# {9 I- M" bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
6 a: L3 [9 O) \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# ^1 r9 S9 b0 G% ?# A7 I
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 R7 @, X/ s. h" U8 q( d8 o5 Q+ fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 t% A3 N- M0 F; V$ d A- \8 v
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 l+ e% M6 G! {: n; C6 `, W
historically depressed levels.
( n, g! r. W( w6 T9 o# D Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; t' m/ H1 x/ ~3 C- Pof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
r0 F- ~% W! x0 m2 h$ [* a9 Jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
, v N% u, d" W7 F- K6 Y3 S; Q2 thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This7 l- h1 H3 [5 D; T9 [4 R
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
8 t9 c# {. k. @% Fmonths ahead," added Hogue.* H ^1 Z1 E2 c; z
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 R }7 L) S- r8 f; f ~7 m- Icities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ d, N! [3 x/ S( J- m6 Q8 Q4 G42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
. r1 I9 l+ j- m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 m* d2 _# Z# e: V1 G
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 B& U/ B( e1 O: S/ n, P8 G. K
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
0 k A* s* |0 ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
h+ e- x2 M# M# O The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; R7 C3 B, h2 j; bbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ k- Z- l. s- s% W2 d
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ H9 J5 O: n1 e4 f7 Dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" [1 a( ^+ s5 Z" S8 u
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
6 e+ d7 f+ m `% Z4 [3 ]For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 O1 ]. l$ I& r* l/ H1 C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& Q! U3 x) F v- r+ i f! j2 c
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.9 r% m& i4 ^$ b8 y2 q
4 x) M9 X! r( S; {4 }7 ?- n' ?$ r <<
6 t/ q, C3 @/ C1 e Highlights from across Canada:
! h& ]" G; D/ C8 `6 a! f
2 x8 ~& Y3 s1 ]9 D, \. N8 ? - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! M U. a6 ~ u$ y0 C intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 o4 U7 D0 k1 N W9 a/ b
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& V' Z* P$ E X3 m& x only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
0 M( e& L8 X7 _/ t! U. D1 g# I) p since about the middle of 2007.
5 U, P( p; U, v - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 [6 H- u/ x* O0 R- E& \5 g3 R
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to J& ?4 H( @# K+ t. |# C9 E
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; D; _* n9 C; [: Z& u& A" a largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, ^) C. }# N7 o poor affordability levels.1 j! ?0 g* w0 U) s
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 K6 {9 F4 w4 O& ?4 h vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
2 c, x- X) J0 P% _/ q' ?- v4 @! k prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
6 j/ Y2 F c! ~) }$ h. V5 |5 P Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% u8 f; D6 P! b1 v, V; e minimize any downside risks.
5 t0 H2 u6 y* |" _# r) y6 W7 R - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: R0 d. z8 |) m1 @ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 ^' J5 M" H7 u- G5 S9 p2 X) {
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early8 R( ^, i$ `& H9 l- I/ m9 N
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. k/ @5 c+ [* J( s
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ W$ S0 }" U9 K8 P7 I
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
0 q) o; r+ l7 F0 Y, j; F( y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus" I" h" X6 n; p( u
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 G* r- T6 S6 Z, k) x4 W; o( A reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* e' K/ p! [# M# {3 o ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 F# _3 z: m9 f- n, K2 g modestly in recent years.
2 g7 ~% Y8 w% R- H( J$ } - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
% V& @8 P. @, F8 u3 i general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot3 B, i H( u4 @1 y6 V4 b# n: O7 ~
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) l: a/ m1 X4 n' |' l/ [: e
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 [7 h. [ a# w6 C following two years of deterioration.
& d0 v7 R9 D1 J2 q5 I+ f" _% ^* [! R >> |
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