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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC $ ?& x1 e3 _% d( T
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 h! k1 n2 ^" p7 a/ @8 y% Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 w: V4 T/ H r9 D9 s
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, g0 Z" [; l* J0 j" d. Xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- }* X( ~) X2 _ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 |0 r% x# `0 y' t5 h5 R+ ]0 l' Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* f& k7 c7 w7 [, P
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
& @! V" n) m# O6 E* [! d' _measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; }3 x) w1 L! c, _7 c- X% r" ~ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
, A0 K' j% _+ D1 mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( ^. J" {7 a/ s! O$ a) m
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have9 Z6 k, J: [( N+ l3 _
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 ?4 M% A. x$ L The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 x1 I2 h/ g8 Y; J) j! E/ }# x- Q2 Iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: B0 C* g5 [0 H% h/ hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- N3 {, z& L* G4 R% R" w" e
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
) A% J) n4 C1 V7 K' j5 Dstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and |- Z6 T1 U8 W" |9 N0 z3 A
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.2 Z' ^9 R: W% G- A% _* |
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% ]; k/ Z7 W: @( ~# j) c. i" W' V
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 |+ ~- [& ^8 P0 c- n: p A; Hthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
0 o; P% u% O# Y* C( ~3 t2 x: Ehistorically depressed levels.& u) z3 _! s$ D1 Y* ]
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" K' B0 y$ \, B( ] i$ D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; l8 F; F+ A# e- p* Z! w2 zprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& v0 c0 R- U0 \( B& fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( p' K& M% x& Q/ f R8 A/ l9 a
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' D! a! k" V7 }- e3 }- q$ [9 s9 Cmonths ahead," added Hogue.
1 N% f' K* s' O* u) d6 ? RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 y; \& _; X9 m3 @
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% l: e1 i% Z U+ X) n6 o. S) C
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) i. S4 ~( g' Q/ y/ ~. {# B The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
( P( l' D( U& o% S! Ga broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
; h3 W) V$ h" o# h9 i1 q8 |cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, p, ^- H( m0 c/ H- [) \7 Y
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) \0 l. n+ P$ b9 g5 p: I: |
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: W" Q& a0 p7 Obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 R8 \3 ~+ j7 e8 X, |! H+ vbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented) k2 @9 F: i$ ?9 S0 ~! {2 C7 m
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ i( H% V+ t9 x) z7 a) b# T
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% F4 E1 r+ p' D
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 W' Y Y4 X- @! S
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 Z, }$ x1 F c* N) Z0 Xper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# u3 v0 ?7 K" N; G8 D; G* ?
h$ T7 Y- e6 i* `5 ?
<<0 _* S" a6 X# v: B6 m2 w0 b6 [& ~
Highlights from across Canada:
1 e) h" v+ p! j6 q8 |. d, j& `" v) {9 l w4 W
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* \$ u/ i/ Q5 U
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 e- r* _( n! ] k8 C" l
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' f0 o/ Z4 u% E8 E only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 m) a2 A: M: g% \
since about the middle of 2007.7 S! E. Y4 o9 E, \" t
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ c% A4 m9 ]6 K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to! D8 X7 H0 e" |' }8 B5 I" Y9 c; t5 e
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! Q* q) T$ H0 d- G7 U. D
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: r4 t( c8 n- G3 M v0 m5 U* y7 ?- X& L/ } poor affordability levels.5 {9 O! g$ @3 D
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 T* m, G8 ]8 [9 y/ Z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ o3 y9 ~* R2 M. k prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
( {% q9 |# M5 p1 Q* R& ?. D7 C Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* M* X6 l2 j) W8 N2 c; v# ?
minimize any downside risks.; p) V/ ], ~% u. U( Q# t, b( F
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ z6 b7 |' N. Q& M) I conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* {! i/ m$ `+ K2 {, q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 [$ b4 s$ ?8 f
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
S& K& L; g' i* P( j) ]5 e& u being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) n+ H( F N: x! ^& L0 N, M
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 Z. N2 Z# C' F! b4 J) ^: ]
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 q, }# r* l9 z: i
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ Q/ g# Y6 P) `+ j+ E4 j reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
9 d$ h0 ]! R' ]/ c# x" A ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only+ W3 o! q" C( J4 v
modestly in recent years.
- i& [7 C+ {6 m. u - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
1 O8 t: u. a8 u( e' |* \ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
8 y0 p# p- c+ c+ L spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% M* C9 T' U; g" h; m* @4 b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% e6 l W% z3 r2 Z# J following two years of deterioration.( \! S! G' l+ @6 e9 v9 R
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