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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; ?+ W! {& v( S, T TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' D" R, v% W0 v# X: R- H) x
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 j% J3 d) {( u( D! v
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 ^$ n6 D! V, j5 z+ a3 Yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 y- O$ j- r+ w# Q$ v5 b "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; e2 ]2 K* O3 M$ j" Rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 X8 m( E/ h9 j" bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
P! ?3 ?, S6 C" emeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 D* Z2 j, H+ }% J* [7 v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 F1 H8 D3 f/ Xworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; x) C% h: a( b& Owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. _- }% p) @5 L( g* }9 L
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.# m+ v, j; O' @- W
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 C" O$ a+ k! c4 t" q1 vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
5 H+ m& Z3 q& f. ^/ Qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) t# v# N, E: D- J
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the n" }' G' `& n0 _
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 S" b4 N( z/ I1 M; \( `
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' |" b/ o2 }& K' G3 r According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 v6 E" ~9 h; Z+ M# F( J0 W
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 w7 r: x) t' J) N6 w
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# m7 S$ S3 o8 {2 V) k) G) M
historically depressed levels.$ `6 H8 |' ~+ A* S
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 ` o% \" m8 n1 A% }of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House$ C5 c7 n+ e7 |6 K6 g! s
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& [/ p- ^8 @# {# O; P _! v
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This9 ]& d- }% H7 ^0 k$ y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% x' V$ O; g* S8 g W8 ^
months ahead," added Hogue.
- t0 }0 H( B5 p& }; }$ k3 N1 J4 I) I RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ Y9 m8 v% _& x, N2 ?7 K6 ?7 V1 x
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ B5 Q% b. [' J# B3 O+ g1 t1 L42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; F7 ]0 {- H7 p& l! X9 j* \
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 d7 Q' K5 B5 e/ O3 ]9 s5 v
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' Y j. Q0 ] C# |' ucities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, ?2 w2 a! I: l% j$ ]* A) O" Jtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& }9 |) |1 ~0 M* K9 S+ m The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; H: N o+ }# L4 r
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 G( j4 Y' u1 h) W8 G3 E8 x5 z( v
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented) g1 Z0 V3 a. Q$ P" J* ?& F% N9 U
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, S0 `+ f2 a+ K. [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.) K" e- |, V6 V
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( j' l7 ^6 k; M& _( k
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ a7 ~- U3 `" c' u+ j aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 L( n% P2 ?/ S D8 a: `# j3 J2 j. z$ R/ ]
<<9 b- l, M: w+ `, R6 ]+ l4 g
Highlights from across Canada:
' m2 f0 i: i8 I8 Z' V5 X
& \/ @; N& Q( o( `6 C - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 }0 M. z) O! O5 O5 Y$ O
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 ] M' [0 z2 D# v; k8 I, R
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* A* }9 Y* s4 }4 @$ q$ N
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 H/ P: n7 K; h! h* R; y
since about the middle of 2007.. X1 I Y f, o
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- |/ K: k8 \4 [ I* e3 [: V2 _9 A) o frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
: N+ [; K" j7 }1 P2 M/ k7 K& A9 p decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" C2 a# s# i3 i" F5 k* r/ P+ H largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! c- O; b. w2 w+ P% x( C poor affordability levels.
/ ^6 j- {1 S/ g; U, F7 b# z! D3 ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 d+ s$ ~1 U# |0 f# O( b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; O: h- h! r; S5 X+ o4 W
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: u& q3 U* @, G- ?( |
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ H4 r2 R) p+ H, N% C; j minimize any downside risks.
# U- F( R* u M# r0 D - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 X! K# Y3 m- V0 E+ r* D2 a conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
: ~( z( R/ g9 R& K, ]' L7 \ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early5 B( ~2 x6 G! N) I
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ P* U6 |. N) U+ J
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.# {; L0 I1 X3 P; U1 P/ K2 }& P
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# l! S n K3 r& L2 u- _( E* k C8 P Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus. ~% G' f% ]$ a3 }; {* N' v
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, S: h {2 p- `9 X/ d3 k! K$ j reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 n, D: F, h# |% o$ M/ v) i
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- b" h5 P6 ^. g
modestly in recent years.
* t* ?- A: P) r7 B8 |0 ? - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
0 f( Y" i- m# e0 c5 B general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot1 y0 @# F& S1 x# D) A* b- [
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ d/ F: m- ?" X8 @& Q9 ] price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, i0 }4 k5 ~5 Q5 m2 c9 H e following two years of deterioration.$ @6 }: s% l% Y+ Y
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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