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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC $ U$ @' O- H# {# K
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- f. t, [7 g# `& l; p( [. T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" U: a `3 H: x
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 l& ^; |4 k. F5 \3 X4 ]2 B# Saccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
6 y' ^8 d. k# S# P. Q* X1 e. w "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' r( x- [- o, y* ?& B! Vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 n. O' M" r4 y/ r' W9 P- G0 Ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# }4 x$ k* x5 B C, X8 L% kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."% p. X( C+ n1 _/ B2 n
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ a \9 C: p7 ], p+ _8 I+ S
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,# A1 W7 J4 b- A6 }
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% a) ]- Z3 M4 Q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 K0 w8 `! M' w: }$ g8 K The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ x, o6 f$ l9 h4 Kproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 b: I4 _$ V- V0 ~. P
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 f6 j8 j1 [& L, U6 d0 a/ kAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# V/ n2 B; ^! Hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and% M4 G# A3 m8 z' a. F( Z0 ^4 ?
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' X) w- c& j" i% r& ?8 e
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
9 Y* U( q: W* N6 Q hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 V3 P9 H: ^! H+ ^5 \
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at. e! a) q; v( z( V
historically depressed levels.
: w; z$ O" Q/ X- x y+ J' Z3 d r Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! g& I1 s' R& ^9 Nof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- ?4 {1 g5 {9 o( nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ [" e( Q- Z9 Y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ Z5 I4 ^! s% L7 o2 P, }
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* d, a# E: _7 M. Y
months ahead," added Hogue. R+ g, V! x8 r3 H
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' H$ k( S7 U7 ^$ Ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary1 O1 z/ ^# e% {8 O, N( X
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.% |% w" x# ^% T m d# X
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 f9 R( G- K& Da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 ~/ w m8 O- q7 o+ Pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only; c% Z9 m; j6 r9 F' ^- P% S1 v$ k
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 V& ]- {. A, m- D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
- c, {5 G2 r/ g% @( X& tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; ?( ]+ j% L6 T9 H* Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* p% C' E/ @8 a# S u2 q0 E+ cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ q' J# Y. g7 q/ P# u6 scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 |5 i& y& S# d+ A2 |For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ i: j3 Q2 j& \3 A2 qcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; v1 r ~; w* i: C$ aper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.* }, u. R/ ~8 _3 X
6 D1 h. H/ |/ Z, ? <<- a0 J* ]+ { [2 o G' q
Highlights from across Canada:$ {% I6 t) u/ }/ Q+ [
8 h, H# B+ s' l/ W$ [
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" t V' M7 v+ x# f, q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ d. g9 f( a; v2 V' ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: h/ y8 Y8 a5 Q j% v3 m3 p- Z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 L( Y, c5 K& A( U, f! o& l
since about the middle of 2007.
: g! T* i' j9 f% O# p. O - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ s: h2 H9 A1 a
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
3 P7 l5 d) Y: I* D/ a. j decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 e( k$ e; y8 u& w largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* t N+ G3 q; w3 o, v8 O3 m
poor affordability levels.
2 e: `( u: [: c p" u; H1 ^ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. c. P5 ]* A, k2 { vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 E% D( \" X9 t
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' B+ h9 U7 K' h/ s# _, s1 g Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- O4 b/ v# y6 b3 `8 G minimize any downside risks.
' B4 B. k) Z$ n$ o$ _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 C4 T8 P; `2 `8 P7 c/ V conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
6 e7 `6 v5 g; |+ g5 J- f unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! r {# Y A3 I) @/ I: M: A 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly; f! H' Y4 g: i% k" P
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. r4 f+ H. {- s/ I9 U/ l) {/ p - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
d3 R6 Q( m$ Z: F Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- M4 V& Y0 o3 ^& Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up7 s& e1 p" X% W t
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 H" C5 p+ [5 G
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; D/ `* m7 d8 v) z, \9 Y8 |
modestly in recent years.+ _1 y% `( l. T, Z% N7 y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 v2 M0 S' |+ ], |- o0 q" v. }0 Y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ H1 H0 ~' q& Z9 o N2 l, n7 Z
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward5 V% _/ K1 F5 {
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& B; H6 d8 M( U% f: H following two years of deterioration.6 n( d& O, q E; j d0 @
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