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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 W8 z: I& L9 e/ _% h( Q" y; A TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 m3 v# {0 ~4 Y; d
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive' y8 Z" U+ k5 ]$ _0 X
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) R3 Y/ _4 Q3 m7 U X& ~- p
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 H) { W/ M1 L+ h# @ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 L+ J# u7 U0 S1 S
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 s) q) z3 b; r. [* Y$ ^! a
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: _# P% O' V. O- D4 h9 ?) \/ G
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."/ Z. A" g* O; _. K+ h8 W) Z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. ?2 z& k7 e) E" {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, y2 L' K1 u' T6 Fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
9 c: q( k8 S4 ^( [# R+ Z3 Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 a5 E9 f+ K$ h3 G/ f) _4 v
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ v. ?9 o5 t3 ?5 S9 yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. P" g% R5 N- i; i3 Z$ @home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: D( y7 |- p' Q4 _& t
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ e! L) q' U: B9 v2 f5 e: Sstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
2 _, L( I) N& h2 B! `the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' _% F s. |) J, M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 W; B0 m- \' O, j$ x( N' K
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 Y% l0 V2 a. b1 L! U6 j2 Bthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ Q' ^' m3 Z7 V9 u% Q1 K+ _
historically depressed levels.
6 W% S3 C8 d# r. x Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
" H e( k+ A. b: v8 [of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 v3 ~+ N* W( I0 p8 L
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 _7 P6 d1 ]8 m% V. t4 `) Shands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 {" Z! @. P5 g7 h& v0 }7 V7 denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ w( L; t& [& z" `4 F8 c% \ {
months ahead," added Hogue.
- o9 C; o: c7 f9 T2 d. d RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
n: H d: R9 b+ mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary2 O2 z+ d* t+ U+ a1 ?1 p
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 [% S* }3 e, B- ~) @ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 R0 }* ~4 E* f! S5 D$ H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. J$ k9 _$ O+ x- Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
3 R2 `+ g5 r- B' Stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 R) g( q3 s! W1 K
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 R, G8 W( F0 r# f4 zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& E) C; R8 g( z+ H" {4 Q6 C* C$ A/ N
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* N9 `8 v* a' K8 y [5 v) H! E3 W
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 c5 P5 R5 n( n' q% _- f
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.) L5 r4 ^7 z9 m) x: q$ U
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 v2 n( s, G4 b$ `/ p8 @costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- B+ m# R% R* G' U
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' z4 u$ Z/ h' ^7 A4 ]0 Q" T1 P. Y& H$ A# V+ S5 E) {
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, M) s1 B! I9 |* T3 F" e Highlights from across Canada:
- w* _" X2 A1 K* L g* w3 U0 X/ i9 }: i( b4 M! D- M4 U- c$ Z: B
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has5 t9 `$ E8 F9 _
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# g/ A5 v# D, j( ]9 ~6 E1 q home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 J2 B3 Z" f: [) ~ D. l1 R only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* x; b1 v1 |: X) I8 X$ i* t+ V since about the middle of 2007.; B1 Y. a: @' W9 H: M0 H3 k3 T
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* C `, {. Q# [, ^4 |7 E8 h
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. |+ {+ g, D( h' R6 J* B! \7 p T9 o decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
5 X! _- W' M9 J; Y& X) M; r largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% c: ?% U" ~- `3 @5 _ poor affordability levels.
$ W ^9 x9 C* _% o3 C - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! w# W2 @" F" d3 C) m vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ u: |5 }% H1 M* F5 `# p6 B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! ?- H$ _+ @! V8 F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& A0 L+ b+ e5 q9 A' O$ ~ minimize any downside risks.; ], F8 w% c. Y5 r) P0 a$ l/ L/ \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# T9 P. l9 ~) x$ f conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ r0 G, X. g. N+ ~% ?$ H unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
o5 K, i) ~6 \ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 d1 a8 s9 Q c8 q; Y& `0 }5 V being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 E6 r) D5 Y% y3 h) V! {2 k& j4 t+ T! L
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, K; k- `& }* L- g
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- o" S' z- z0 s* P, V" H7 n far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up" W1 z0 m8 W% Y% L% w
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 ^+ [! m0 ]( y+ u: j2 Z. [7 U3 @/ q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ |! ~# a4 o* @/ l( d" U modestly in recent years.
3 n/ t9 M% }( O* N - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; C* q5 m) N# i3 E" x3 w7 N general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 b! S u$ L7 C7 P9 n) H J# T spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" a) ]& u* g5 D1 l9 z: W. `
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) W+ O/ L1 r" `) |) v& }9 r" h" p5 c following two years of deterioration.' e4 G0 F3 l: v' A0 A7 g! d
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