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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
% Z% B7 E2 J0 U+ T8 O TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( [$ B; e! Y( L" v' C3 Amiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. R1 {& @8 i+ f. n3 ]$ V# W, n
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, v; { }1 n# A' T, B* Uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; o9 o2 q8 l+ n2 H9 }6 y
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( s8 X8 p7 L% e* c4 u, c6 w- N
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
% `% P2 {9 L7 J% D* }- `* Wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 T" v' t" ^2 u2 vmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& e8 J1 U, j' C& ]4 @
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' ]1 z: ?: L# Z- U% P2 z, v. j
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,7 a6 D: l, p* S& U1 l: ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. ^/ E6 E' E6 X) S+ p. jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: g+ p' D0 m! F2 R9 R The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 S- `8 t/ l0 t* h
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' U& `$ d" T3 _. P$ y5 Xhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# d; m$ g! U0 P2 d. l3 j$ z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% U. [! X2 b) b" A B% u% I& e
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and! | b/ U9 U' Z4 u
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.. i& k$ m8 ~( z9 c& F$ i% S
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ C, V: T. [& e$ v6 X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in/ @+ w' R0 X' D0 Z' q* u
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) Y# Z" \( d2 L. z1 E2 k) R- \4 d
historically depressed levels.
: W' @$ n0 Q* m0 c W. c* v Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 L+ ?* a e+ U; U$ B
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ ~! z- W% m( P6 I0 ]0 Y4 Y1 E
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ o! Z$ u, }. s T4 M( l
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ ^9 s, x# p. l3 cenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" f( E; m: m5 ?/ Rmonths ahead," added Hogue.$ ?6 _* i) C x. t! E i; b, j. K
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
( e* B2 }' |7 ^+ acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" p! l- \) z0 z1 E1 [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 z# _: B9 {* O8 K( N5 e& X: o The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 D8 ?2 W- C9 [' u
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
s! `; F; c& ~9 U% X" t) Jcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 R* b0 Q0 a4 }$ q2 P9 P$ b% Otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" v/ F+ P4 }- y$ q6 [ O The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ f; b3 Z% X! wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ m" d6 B/ [0 ]! H/ \! r. pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: l# l- A* R3 v
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& j* R8 R. M% i* o/ [0 `condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ t0 n' x* _% V ]' w
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) D* i0 n" V+ ]2 u* n
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 D1 R. }/ R% x; ^' z n& n0 {
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ u4 r$ C3 y3 u: m t' s( X9 A Y& r! a5 Q% H2 X
<<
! [4 G4 v. O* a) G Highlights from across Canada:
; w. G& a) y% Q; v/ A7 S8 z4 g* i, K4 z8 \: i1 V7 A9 H( ]2 }
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- O% Y6 D: k$ u5 D4 r intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing `9 J0 e& _$ C. t" M
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 C: Y( e2 j& M( K) B: }
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- y# L3 ~# G/ P since about the middle of 2007.9 Y( Z9 U) C: B; `- \$ T
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 ?0 M" Y: y0 A4 q) d u. P
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 I) N& Q' |1 U, h$ I- M decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still' f% ]" h6 r& c5 A5 k/ p* A
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& H# W C2 [$ E4 O# d poor affordability levels.
3 K, s" Y2 ]' y, e' N# `) A - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ r& l; C ~( X
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# u5 [/ F2 |+ x prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% o7 @" o1 q0 k: C: m" C) \9 a- H; U9 ] Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 e, }4 S, W' e+ H3 Y# q/ F0 s% Y6 P
minimize any downside risks.
3 L/ \2 l% k2 P: \ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
7 X3 V7 j: \ e9 E: @5 h" t conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 z& @- w, s9 d! ]$ x( f
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& A' f; D! Z5 ?" [' F# F2 S1 C! E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ \% _8 D% O+ R! M: _
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 ^% }) @& b( ~& P4 k. C+ C1 @
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! P4 v7 D. i3 D; e Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus8 O& i) d8 {0 Q! p
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& i2 i$ u' Y! |/ _9 R0 A reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' c: U3 E9 [8 X* S1 j ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 X( [( t$ d Y3 I* F- ~$ Q! I
modestly in recent years.' t6 A* R. b( _% u
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! c2 Z0 m S8 ^ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
' \3 K7 I# n' W$ w c- y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
' J2 Q( c0 z' c! x6 m price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, L& e4 I3 ?# W following two years of deterioration.
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