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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 n, k2 ]' b! J8 z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* O/ Q5 l2 S4 z) ^9 M3 M9 Vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive' X: k, F, F2 G
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,' ^3 v( f) ^" i* w, Y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 N/ ?. c: b/ `1 `8 y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ v/ H4 U, X/ q! j3 v3 R8 C) b% }said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is6 m5 f. O0 v- P( J! c+ ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
z# W2 i4 ~; q! u" gmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& a$ X2 |3 k# s# E0 S# U RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: m9 Z5 x$ D- D
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! S$ n$ p3 ^5 q( i, [0 pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" u1 x) ]; K* Psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: ?8 k/ d2 s E" b The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ _4 L) C5 B) j1 u' u+ oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 o7 b) H" l2 {# ?
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 h1 R* p6 T: J( ~! B7 y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& |6 P# ~+ x l) j. A, astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& i8 z6 a/ s* H: h) o" A6 D6 R
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- l( w* e; b! s* r
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 N4 `9 m: a; }
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, @3 s: g1 e) w' y% V: J7 p" {the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 `1 |0 D3 @5 k; T1 K( u
historically depressed levels.
* p/ ]2 L: \: |4 ~* H: D Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ T& B7 q! T. j7 s9 F" Y' K
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& J0 Y3 Y( p7 Fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& b% E% ?! z/ E+ i, i4 m& Rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This. u1 m0 Y3 }4 D5 T2 E" E
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& j: w9 ~& _' j$ i& Zmonths ahead," added Hogue.
( f2 C5 N3 R$ u. t' A1 j RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 s/ c# X# A O. m* Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 r! z- [/ A. m# j/ c7 C/ \; j+ G
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# k5 D! a. |! D/ P5 ?
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
/ J! ^8 O( H: m2 B$ c2 N% wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) L% J9 }7 B# {# B* P( H
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. ^) o; I* d% I: V' M# W
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.. s$ C3 Z! a4 N- x# T4 c" i* i
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; u: ?2 l6 R8 K/ C& `, o$ }9 xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ W7 q" |" W: m# m9 y5 }
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
$ j! _. v4 B' k9 ^. l7 Sincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: x$ c2 C/ E) G' {condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( N8 f/ f3 P% W8 P& Y& |" w4 u% a
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 w- q/ E* e: a2 H, H5 \6 c
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( n- u! W7 Y% q4 i# p$ k* wper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
" {2 P# n7 W7 a$ u
3 o* r/ |2 g5 t' |' L2 P' O <<
" y8 F2 |+ L* ?, p) s7 ]1 Z Highlights from across Canada:
. n1 J6 ~, w7 O* R3 z+ M9 b6 j2 w" H+ e1 I0 S2 q
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% y, e1 r7 }" N0 w! v3 ^) _
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ S! B, M7 h9 l' z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound% E+ K) [. h" O) p
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 ~6 w* T+ P+ F. d) G since about the middle of 2007.
5 A1 ~4 _9 e! a7 x N - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' G# B, b( |* n7 R& L
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 e1 y6 h- w3 o* V& @6 S2 ?
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ ?+ v; ~1 T/ @- [; @" X* Q9 w& c
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' l7 P: q) p6 G/ x6 @' H. ~( b
poor affordability levels.
0 t H! O' ^+ a1 n. u; V - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 A+ p6 O8 d4 h5 `( M, @) a: C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and$ t8 c, \5 x& ~1 T- q% T9 h. ~
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.# G V; s% L! f* q9 T
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; @6 W5 D! C3 e( x! t
minimize any downside risks.# \0 ~% a- h z% s! W
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; [0 p) b2 M2 \. k$ I: V8 j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; J0 |7 Z8 ]* f& X) p7 B unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early d' x1 N: z3 o7 `
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly2 a+ k( w+ h: s( e" H
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) P) M! N4 i6 C) M6 q: k
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# W9 F1 L& K: V5 B; d% I, E i* s Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 F+ M( s9 h0 _, \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, t) v) V* \# V0 U$ ]. v0 |
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" A5 g* K$ m- u* } ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 [) t2 E" @ ^ modestly in recent years.
& W) y9 q; y0 F5 a& B& t) p - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
9 `0 ]* f" a: m5 e* e# W+ { general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) q T! u K+ f8 Y7 F$ k0 X spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ P) q$ S c7 g+ b' T. X4 g) |! [# W
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability5 n7 m8 }3 s. a& K2 j
following two years of deterioration.* }' p. O1 ~5 E- n: K. W
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