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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 |4 e. X w* {. o
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! ~; z! @3 J# O! o; y5 r3 fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! R/ t7 m/ V, b, |: t' U& {" M
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* n) N$ P& ]9 q$ {# b# Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; A1 K/ a j2 y |0 X4 p' d
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! H* }5 z8 u! P4 r5 gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 O1 j+ H! x' \, u( mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 g+ _: ~8 j7 M7 v% Y9 q8 b O
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, w& I. M8 j( {4 P' p+ k H RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" L# u! U# r& d2 i9 d5 C! B
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% i2 |; ^7 U8 h1 u% }4 z
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( t: f/ j' U8 Z1 b' O1 A4 K% {sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 ^& j8 j$ w- g4 l# Z% v9 s; ^% H% y# G The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
5 d6 r% [5 P! xproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ E9 y; Z+ R0 T: J. m6 Vhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 k; B* \9 }4 k/ j
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
9 B8 \/ I" b, K5 c' t% d" qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and, a G1 P7 Q& C/ [' [
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ L# L: D- t$ r1 ^) a+ l
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ H7 F% C( d; x! P' O3 x( V" _' qmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" G3 r. M; a2 }# O! u1 L
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 Q/ Q6 F' E+ Z( Q/ k+ yhistorically depressed levels.8 @) z. F+ r6 l3 U
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 s! Q0 W/ q) v4 l" t2 q ?- Qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* {) W) R C3 ^prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" |1 ?" Y- z. o- ] @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
P5 A1 K$ Z9 S3 ^0 \ ^8 Z+ lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ }& t5 S3 |0 H, vmonths ahead," added Hogue.6 v: s+ n3 ?" s7 t' V' Z
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* u. G3 H" Z2 ? z
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 A8 U$ V/ T6 A3 Y# ]0 g* n42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 Y8 E2 j# b3 o8 q& Y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 g! x, _! W, K) I3 T
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 q7 ?8 _8 |4 D. y7 r$ p/ L; \$ a gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) K# g- ?, v8 E/ A: x* L7 e7 X
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, _: m- T2 P' ?: H$ ] The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
: O) [3 j: l" |) Jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property# t3 _( n5 c; q) K- q t j. _
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# j( | V _, D; J3 ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
- U u! A7 o. U- z+ h! mcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ v1 U! `* D2 q$ i! N- O
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( E7 @9 L/ y$ ?. N9 Ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 v4 b! Q' \$ W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
. f$ G- C0 \: i) ]* |; N/ f( ~" a/ {+ E) \2 `8 R3 V3 Q
<<6 V: k$ e; }* V4 x+ |) @" u+ o
Highlights from across Canada:
/ L% p$ Q7 B% K
2 @' _: r7 Z4 ?1 e5 V - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# a U8 k, a+ s' `; h intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 d0 h) k9 c5 ~9 [/ [$ y$ d
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 b" n5 H: I F/ R9 ~
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( f* V1 D, _- u. s! w y since about the middle of 2007.
/ T; |$ u2 V' c8 a( y M0 o+ q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# S( t Z$ l R0 x
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
, S# h% O# W ]9 Q& l: H decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
i- m+ a5 S8 g) A0 y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 G; X1 q- }8 k& A1 `$ e7 b0 ^
poor affordability levels.
, ?. h$ l& a- b+ L* X - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the. z3 i( \/ T5 A! v' i
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
- z0 Z/ `* s ]/ Z% y; P prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 W4 l8 _* {- W+ P7 |; c( R ?
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 T, R% J* j. P) v0 u" _ minimize any downside risks.6 f7 f* F$ }, `8 n
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; y0 ?6 Y7 f1 ^
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# z6 X6 D; V/ L) L' J, b unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ R7 \! L: C( k1 K1 c
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! w4 F; q$ o! B4 X3 }( F" b being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) a0 {; Z. {, Z# S- G2 h - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in$ Y, S1 j& R& @+ \$ f
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
: e1 l5 Z- P+ [7 n' R! B3 l far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% z3 ?2 i! C/ h S5 ?* l reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 w5 [! p8 b, `, T2 `
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 o- a+ ~3 d& T& n) B$ V& W modestly in recent years.
. ]& A9 P( G e" A8 _0 F) B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
. {( N; k0 |( A9 W" ~& A0 H general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot: d, y6 \$ [" R, Z) A# q
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
7 N3 O6 X. N8 U) \' ^6 S: V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
8 J9 ~- ?4 h7 v) g! b1 M4 A, V2 X) l1 w following two years of deterioration.
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