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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 g4 _8 K4 F; G) d0 a TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the ?3 X, o8 F H3 Y9 y
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: Q( W: P, `4 N, G. I; Dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 \3 y" [8 ?1 k% f+ f( h, laccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 G; H6 p$ A% \! I! x "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ r! `( i1 O. r% Asaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" U, [# b) d7 ^
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ l0 T" j8 S0 g) G, W! k
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 G8 i/ n( P# U- d
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: J% H3 C5 e0 C, f! P6 \- yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 y- S# p. ?# {- r$ @; Y$ pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( u2 t9 R3 N9 w7 X0 o& A* w# F4 G2 ?
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! t3 k" N! m( ~ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- `* Y6 r+ c* K# l$ Mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 n* o# }, t0 V. Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
- v7 y1 u( M$ hAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; j- W" A& z3 N: q& i. zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' ^9 T$ }- w, X$ b M0 x9 r- _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
! `! E* F. g& f According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 @& ^# F! [3 d0 F6 R
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# Z: L& w4 X. B- L* L8 N _* E) S! R
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 s }' e1 F* V+ R- ]( x! q+ khistorically depressed levels.
9 P# E( g2 I6 E/ N Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& E2 b( H0 b4 R3 I, N
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
. j; K. @! Q7 |- m2 L# Eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, _* ~& |2 b* r1 Z( l8 [
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This G. S! V8 J/ B$ K+ N7 D
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# M2 k; Y1 ]3 O5 i6 z2 C
months ahead," added Hogue./ ]0 x, _' O0 ~; S9 U# i
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest" s0 N; v* q9 h& E" L
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( G% k `" q. @; P9 H: u& T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ ]; q! z" W& X) O3 w
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 S9 X# I2 i+ O/ N( R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% J& @* z: d# G0 o, u& ?7 c# @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# o7 [: v2 Z: C9 [6 ?9 F; btakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.. L# x' P' ?3 r: c
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is+ |/ k* t2 }8 M1 j( w) R
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 } U D+ `& E# G; Y1 A& P7 Hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# C: ~! n. P. b' Y
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. O, Z/ D% v' ~
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. U3 J0 e6 O7 B; B- u! x: q
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. C7 x b0 N$ \' {2 N0 ?costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 p. j6 @3 m; }per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# e9 Y6 ~7 ~3 @& r3 l" E8 E: g8 p+ L( N
<<( V3 K) j/ v( ~- l5 Q
Highlights from across Canada:! r* N2 z' W" \( H7 c z" m# e+ G
7 M+ C+ @; @8 n( ]" U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( U' @6 ]- v9 e+ T" w3 f- I& o1 j intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) e8 W$ o+ w) L) O home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound" G: @7 X! b g; z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* |0 @9 S8 e! S0 Y" V& @ since about the middle of 2007.+ D4 \" m0 Y1 G) v. h
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" P6 _4 F% p. w6 a Q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ K6 s/ g6 j, L) X8 x
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
# S; s, h6 M" @, d largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
+ G8 I) M! C8 Q! S2 ] poor affordability levels.
; O: u2 t- M v/ k - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ @1 B7 A8 h2 h7 P
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; y6 K" M" O H; J2 B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 z) j$ C& p$ \9 r$ w* D) G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 k; R. }+ D) J/ h minimize any downside risks., ^' w6 N+ E; W! ~0 x7 J, k2 w- b
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' L! m( n" c! d6 ^( j4 Z' K conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' B; i$ w6 t6 _4 d8 M9 n- U unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* _5 `" v* _/ W5 n; @* [" s 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
: @5 Q* m o. }6 x1 g9 z! X being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- i2 g0 N2 t7 I R( f - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 e9 U' A. R" x/ M8 ?! Z+ c5 y
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 I; R d3 `2 w1 h4 k far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, L, `( ~6 U6 P; b: k- t
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# o4 V* o* k, P5 A+ p9 m/ d9 q$ x. H
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 B! V% l, E* I modestly in recent years.) g" }* |/ p! k0 U/ W% E- C
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
e8 P, b- c6 S7 \( C; B G! @ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 A# g8 m h" f% e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward7 n. ^/ n( k r9 c, r
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 B& u; S' P% r0 ^& b7 @+ [1 m: a following two years of deterioration.
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