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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: o- R' I) T% }1 q6 z0 w8 m9 D TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 Y {, T, }3 q! K
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive: |7 {* O& h0 z& Z% i
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 X' q8 ~+ l; D) K, M6 x8 v+ Z0 Caccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics., r t4 i3 [9 d6 i- k6 @9 [6 E3 o
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ | A6 Y! C r6 s# L" s, V5 zsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 ]4 l) I6 V% @# A( q6 o
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability# T7 t s" ^/ { F U5 n D
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
N& T. M7 D* Y! [/ X, e RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ g' d. _' D7 I7 ?2 [: C2 z5 `worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
7 r1 D$ N, @3 j) U3 zwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( k2 D8 \/ Y& h, s: r- m% b) F
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes./ C6 z. }5 |- ]
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 R2 d( @( I( V q9 ` x/ e
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- T A3 P2 _6 ^$ f+ z
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
0 G; }( m9 g4 ~' J0 \Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" o, f0 e0 l: B9 v# b8 h9 j
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( ]/ T! ~+ W: W& ^5 S! d; fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. g- b# y5 l% w) ^! ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 o! b4 f( \) v% q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 P1 ?$ W, Y% F8 x3 q
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at F! m$ E V w( F9 c
historically depressed levels.0 F3 g+ q+ @+ F; f$ J
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost# S! n7 Q8 E+ w' c# B6 d) c6 r( {
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
Z" N7 b) }; b7 e, dprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the9 V$ Z; s& w9 V, ]
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 d( v( E; _& x1 t6 B9 T9 wenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 B% H2 A' \8 C Q/ Y7 }
months ahead," added Hogue.% P6 N7 z, `; h/ Z; @* |' P- |0 F
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 Z$ S# b- I4 s3 A+ g) K
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: V+ v" q1 q; y. `- A1 w
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." g* t7 T0 m+ g- H" k
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) M' D% g7 Y; X+ s" e- Ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' L1 N6 i4 X" m2 L% n
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- a1 \9 j( \& G+ M6 f U7 Q* f% Qtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 X% ?/ \$ Z/ Y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ N7 z! [( D Z$ i! _: a: Xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ K: [( Q4 w# W- N
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 f, I6 k' q* b6 Eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( f/ g; s# R9 O* i, @: X$ N
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* X! X* \- b% g! v% T; e l5 zFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership1 ?: u; p* H' ]
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 \6 ?( M6 i3 ]* L
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.$ Z4 E& x! R, c% A; o
7 D7 n7 A0 y/ `: _1 F
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8 A7 P" L: c* A! a+ C9 l7 @! L Highlights from across Canada:
, w1 A0 V1 o4 N3 ^8 L+ v/ p3 R# ^0 B( X p+ m) s" z E
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* n, i$ b' p) f9 d7 S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 M- ?5 \+ m* G0 S# k. L9 N+ K4 @
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound3 c7 w' q5 C+ G/ n6 e
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 a# S& ?% _( V
since about the middle of 2007.
, E3 E7 ]4 U3 W Y% E - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# v- i7 j* O" C6 K+ d- `( d' v
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to5 F: p9 p5 X3 f9 N- T0 T
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still a4 Q5 l* E" l; V; e) H5 b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely T- p! S/ w9 `( a
poor affordability levels.# t/ v" f4 a8 p( C8 u5 [
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( S2 }. `0 @+ o& E
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and! o- }+ q4 }% T" S+ x6 Y* ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
( J+ D. N6 E. E5 p* y3 v Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ K; `$ ~1 o7 H2 R minimize any downside risks. ~- e3 V F8 P$ L% M' ^
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; Y0 C! \3 x! B! k" e# M V conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& _! E3 W& t# R. q, }6 E
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early3 X* G4 q7 N) h) c
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 {9 M; B7 P: p. C; P* J. `; ~ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ m( j% d. l) v
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in2 F3 f8 v6 ` u7 u [ |* @. _1 H
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ H- @6 m) W$ e2 D far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 P& d B. d: o0 K* Y, J3 v% r9 U- H' q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
`* _0 x* v$ S6 ^4 O, N# B ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
4 C* J# v5 a, l& a7 L# m; | modestly in recent years.
1 [. m( M0 V- P/ Z. K' U9 _( ?3 z - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
, ]9 m. }/ a$ W6 p general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! i( A6 s& ? k5 d
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 e7 ~ \8 g; l9 f. N0 }* r price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 s" y \% k4 |+ f* Y" A following two years of deterioration.$ C; a9 j0 r0 U: u. z( Q- F) O i
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