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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- o% R5 i$ x4 B: s/ i8 _ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the" l/ K! A- O1 `$ v# v
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
; n: S) Y% ~0 w5 vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
; O. ^, d* p, I, D) N" caccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 h; f' T. m3 c* G: T6 _4 `) O "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ u. l. z# L% xsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) U" R1 x0 f0 Kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 `/ P+ y, b1 A' e0 z/ h- L
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ v9 g$ s7 e6 V7 A: Q2 [9 d& j; Q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ q. V5 O! F8 g
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 I, h: a; j5 h4 P0 r
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 b W2 |- C/ i* x; dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 k9 `- M6 b1 l( O The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 n( U2 S8 M( _) Z$ R7 u: z! D
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 J R. f. X0 K0 E$ v# i0 [home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
6 v# n$ K) {% AAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( O, s- v& S2 m% fstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" K( P* u" e/ i' q' `' J3 bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 l( A: E" |9 G
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 V+ n4 f7 Y+ p$ J Bmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ g- Q& N1 h% gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" U( C- s O% Phistorically depressed levels.0 s# `4 ~7 v' @; G- g4 B) Y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost- @ L% [% w. s0 i* ?" D
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 {6 w/ s& d. X7 _, C
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ E' M7 Q, @/ H7 E1 C) w
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
* S; {( k, r8 Z; genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ r* ~4 ?' z3 wmonths ahead," added Hogue.9 U' a; m& r' P7 Z6 A
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 C2 j. Z' k1 g2 T1 C' @/ ?cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
% M) c; S' z; u7 d& u0 d42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 l: z: z6 N, F) j! d* A4 c7 f) w4 x The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 \- @3 T6 ^) h# S- Y! ~. Wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( I8 e' s$ q4 A5 u8 mcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 l- X" f3 N, Dtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
& W0 h- ]& \$ N& y: w The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is- [5 I# u+ L8 L
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 E9 Q$ e% Y9 f" L+ }& n
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. V% |+ A( }3 J. d' Sincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: p+ ?9 s" Z9 g) ^condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.5 W$ N, Q Z# g3 k1 T
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) w0 e! S1 X( O) D3 A( H, Bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" X) Y" x4 ?! o, T. `5 O* Rper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income." `: u* i* _7 ~# S1 ]0 ]1 B
9 O, z8 L" L! w" Y, D, z
<</ M6 ^8 ^3 ]& i3 V. v
Highlights from across Canada:
, ^2 G1 w; B3 B4 f0 f- b4 Z. c/ Y
3 m: c( H* P4 D, A7 I% d* |! O/ k - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( x3 Z; z. ]# c" ]* J
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: Z' C- g$ l7 G& B: T# y& p home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* ^+ R3 ]. Q! V0 E7 D* T, M
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ r* J# I6 L! K. d since about the middle of 2007.
( l' @: c, c2 V; F- m - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 R& h; _0 [, Q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* {! H0 [9 b3 Z7 D# H2 z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 Z6 e2 q3 T. [3 e! q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* Q: y& l; l, v+ \0 ^( ]* u
poor affordability levels.- ]) V3 `; Q) ^& `6 |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! R9 s0 M5 w! j) A; h1 ]% z vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 n9 x* Z! h, C) p2 E! g
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
* W* ?( B" O3 Y Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ N2 F: R* q! }" V# z8 Y
minimize any downside risks.8 ^* |1 J8 \- Y# d, e! q) {5 X
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( h2 X1 {) O2 Z- H
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is K/ g" ~0 N8 I& _5 R
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
; e0 e$ c2 ^- Q, r 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* ]* p1 l; u) }3 C# E6 _3 H being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 k0 T) y% Y+ t0 u, n - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& k2 j' z+ j, f) V, k Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 S: l) x2 `9 E2 U% c' q, X far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up+ Y; b& a( W, E$ \; a+ i
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ a. B3 m% d3 `# P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 j: ^+ T6 w5 I2 p, e; c
modestly in recent years.
2 M& M8 S' j4 T& M+ R5 L; _: m" g - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' U, m% ?; I1 X
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ P2 |2 m W/ K1 P1 W: Y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% `& I1 k0 A4 {, S/ Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ |; V& d3 k& X- p K! O# q( y
following two years of deterioration. u: l1 z) ~8 {6 f, L
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