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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 P" G5 q1 f V9 s TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* A* A: k; V d" y/ O/ f
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 e' X6 P" m r3 Agains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions," G8 s) S% q( k. n0 j2 M5 ^4 Y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.$ Z: P8 Q0 P. d8 A! ]
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- V* {4 P1 N8 Jsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 O. i% q) T a
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ A! b% i. b: I3 a
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 d8 ~/ e! O2 V; r* V! s
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" l$ h: i2 E! B6 [, I3 P* e( ]
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# Z2 t& W: T1 c1 K5 U& i. i/ bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" |8 d1 A" M. b' _& N. r( O- E) W0 F, ?
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 y, L. s0 C% b6 `% @ ?. Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( e# B9 G% L% M& C8 Q. Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( j! e0 X, _- g6 w( w. U: Jhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* e- z$ c1 D+ ~; }& {
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( W+ n0 D5 L9 \' p& S3 U
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% i+ s( T- {, _$ n7 Mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. ]' H7 h" ^% M
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 H0 x+ j6 I8 l* W" x- Hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) Z! @! d/ }* y$ e0 Tthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at; {5 {* O0 X/ Y' u
historically depressed levels.
4 X% d" j4 D) j3 E Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' W8 i0 v4 J `4 _) e! ~. yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( U9 [" ^) S0 a/ g' e2 T
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
b8 Q4 z+ J" W F% Zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This# B7 W% }$ U& D8 b7 D9 A
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 y3 G/ Q0 l- C' fmonths ahead," added Hogue., f" I2 R8 I# e$ B- a: D: f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
$ ]4 i! H4 ^# }5 ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 K. r; {3 C5 |3 Q4 k
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 R+ A' ` H' j' [, n. C" y% P. K The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 p& ~- w5 K/ ^a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these1 F* N% B' Q4 z! L* K; K4 u G, v9 g3 Y
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: j# R/ a7 v, ]2 b- R8 x1 e$ ^
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 n1 [1 E+ B8 G6 @+ T: I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is0 {3 X5 Q+ J: p
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 Q6 m! J7 l5 Q) e
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# x% P$ I1 q) v" n9 \9 y
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard/ ], m) I$ z8 ^: ?/ s+ v
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
5 B) i3 }; Q2 S1 \; uFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, o8 \( U# V# o& Y1 ]$ Z; \ ecosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 v6 U2 r3 o* `8 w1 ?per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' e' j. G1 m4 Q- H/ g5 f. X% X6 O4 T/ B/ }, V
<<
" A3 h; S2 \4 f$ k: ]' f Highlights from across Canada:; Y$ V3 y3 U0 I m3 ~( M5 }
9 E- p6 J3 a, O/ q# L+ U
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" C. K) c8 A( W/ ^ v4 a$ ~ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 ?# d! e8 o* g$ U- V0 t4 Z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' Y8 N3 `: E4 h# \" q& `" q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. A# W4 B6 K) h: x2 E" I# D6 V
since about the middle of 2007.
2 [$ q' }7 @1 }: f4 G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
3 o9 F! d0 }2 F1 k* L( U- C6 S ? frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, y/ c$ b) g4 N5 @& Y' w& z0 H- a6 h$ G! f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 s; P2 Z* q0 ~3 d7 S: K( S4 I largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely& A1 N- k6 M3 } c3 ` l& [
poor affordability levels.
& m6 y( s K" S. _: e) Z - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
! w+ H r+ G' b9 W# | vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 C* m7 ^! R! k' v- y# V( D% o+ O prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 o" X$ t6 E) z
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 y, z9 e. L0 f5 { minimize any downside risks.3 g1 a0 s% r# S# m- E; V" S
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, T1 T# I; Q; l& g) l/ _
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ \* {, w4 P, K5 L; j, r unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 ?, |% ~& k& W/ h; {4 a 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
0 X& j, f L8 K4 g) R3 @ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., F. l$ z; e) o; l7 X" t7 U5 {
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
9 O8 t. r0 |4 C+ A+ j Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ V; n) R. b/ q4 C/ |3 N' v* I S
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# J- A& h g# l. [3 z) j Y: }
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be% r: f# [/ G+ W( B
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: j: D- B" z, R# e2 Z6 F( H modestly in recent years.
0 r8 k+ l7 p& G3 A0 n/ b - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 D! m3 t7 ]% ^/ q N0 d* O' v, {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 _- }, u- s' G2 h) J, h X spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 J8 i2 H' Z! ~8 B/ i: L% A
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ D0 p2 l1 t9 @1 _# u3 Z
following two years of deterioration.
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