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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 }6 e- t, m1 {7 ]" @) n8 [
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 x; a& |' v4 _! w
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( C) `' t4 W) q& q7 ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- {8 A; C' c9 u; B' Z+ z, \2 k8 H
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ f3 w, G+ S& m1 A1 S2 o "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,". ?: Q# p, x- f+ J/ `
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! @* ?- I7 l' p& _* Kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability2 a, V: T' K0 H+ w& K; C
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ b* S. `/ ^& w$ g$ @$ e# f
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is1 C& X; z/ s; B$ m
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% f% p/ T6 ^3 o; E1 | q
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! I' X' p% W+ f1 Usustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% T. n; v& v: {$ ` The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; e4 |# ] [: {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a* r9 c1 n2 t7 X2 L d `
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 w/ `* B8 {$ }, Q8 r! R
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the+ n! }! [7 X0 |" w* D
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and: J( g. h5 p8 V, y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: S+ i1 Y, b* F8 ~ m. H* I0 a1 U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: |+ r/ }. s$ s
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) |0 P- ?* h" E. Y) mthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 V+ l- K4 ^' l" @1 J- V
historically depressed levels.4 m, f5 a; T* I, ~ z
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ i2 A4 A; v$ [* V; O1 L' q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 ~2 Y. S2 M% ]5 ]( s1 K) l
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" q8 R! ]7 q/ o( e7 zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
( Z2 Y! ]# T6 Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 f* B0 G/ w# E" A# e# Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
l6 ]1 w8 ]$ v RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
( M. H, w2 Q0 `+ t0 Rcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ l; U5 N% b% \$ c) o" R) K42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# r2 H$ P0 @. @/ g" y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# s$ S6 y5 \4 l: c2 f
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
! q2 V! b/ |5 rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 L' S; h4 h& F& Atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- p) w( f% Q& m) U+ m
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. s1 D$ H& p1 z& |1 Y" A$ obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 _6 Q2 B1 j I
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 v [ w7 j5 n5 R8 R, Vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 Q6 L' {- |$ q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. y: J3 f/ `7 j) q3 Q/ Q( J L
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ [2 v, K) u; ^* Ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ X2 e. ?1 _/ r2 h0 S. L6 g: }, E
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. U3 |; A( R u2 ]2 S
' w0 @/ g, [; [4 n) F8 |7 @" I
<<
; d: F* A# {' F# N Highlights from across Canada:1 |) p7 ?9 A1 W1 P
, g) l [" [' U/ A/ i* P6 ` - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 i- L6 w: k( ?7 ]# D
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 g& y3 o4 ^( w% x1 z+ [
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound8 P% l3 I1 w5 a3 e3 O
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
/ d" J8 U9 u: n7 q since about the middle of 2007.
) ~$ ^7 B9 h4 D7 C% {9 a, }6 V - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- h2 {( j) e3 ^7 I( g7 l frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# O% f6 o" o: _
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still) y9 G9 T' s' l8 k
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' z& j- i3 t( q0 i& h9 m poor affordability levels.
/ d/ G3 P0 n; F2 ?5 \. o% a% x& v - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 I K9 b3 e$ `! h vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and1 L5 U: q/ l9 A: M9 L
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ s- Z0 x; J' n& a) H2 ^- C Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to a9 T* `; U/ y: |% `# J
minimize any downside risks.
/ Q! q7 Y; M' }4 X - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 g* c+ u! @! p4 m+ ]# [ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is! Z% X# `- B" g- J; b4 g
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 _4 a- D! V8 d3 B, E& l4 \ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ ^# s; [3 z+ ?& y6 X) z+ @0 K7 y
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
1 _* p& F9 U. [, n8 ? - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 S9 Y O+ s* b5 D# G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* p- N1 j; \$ K5 L+ c; q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up+ z; `5 \1 y1 g( H5 Y9 |
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 t( c8 X$ y6 ?* m
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
3 c8 E. g+ f b/ m5 P/ J. p modestly in recent years.' C( M# J6 N+ {; K" q( v
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ X n+ ~# J& K T8 e7 |1 N$ w
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot S' s- L8 H: s: P1 t. @7 D. l
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; u! m! d& K0 _/ m
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. R. C0 y" T! f8 t A- L( Y& {
following two years of deterioration.
/ O {9 Y1 y: N y, i) i9 B' ^& y, f >> |
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