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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 i! j& L2 r' h6 A& m6 V2 M3 ` ` TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& d6 \; J4 j+ {; [; ?middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
7 M# [. s4 S% l& r U" ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 c& q3 W0 L% Y# w M9 W, iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* W& X3 n# t; U' E "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& O; k0 e/ v5 k7 x' \ \) ?said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is; _9 P( X: t. ] G- } x6 S5 P
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: l. i- j! v7 T% Y0 ^ F
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."6 f6 r) y8 @1 h) U j, g2 ^
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; z4 u# M f S s& pworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: u; \6 }! n( p) qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have! G$ X# I# x7 t' m
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; a5 B! G9 D& W, h8 o
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' Q* {+ X0 p0 R/ v
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: D1 s3 z# q1 J' e" @
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* V, x7 W0 h; b2 E, l% K
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& h$ @+ R. X3 K, p& [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! S. c Z& e8 w H. {! e1 ]the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
A* Z/ @: Z( e1 P, u5 B0 v0 S According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 v4 s2 P( g' c6 ~$ R/ I1 a7 v
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* O$ _9 f }- w1 h X1 m
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 ]- j) F% l4 t* z; f7 _
historically depressed levels.
* Y! E1 S3 ^4 D2 `0 a Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% Z& l+ K: h. Q- H& Dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( l, G0 n1 x+ h" }: Y2 n, u7 y* E
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 c" W9 z$ k" V/ u( ~0 q
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ m. z& w* n7 J d$ V/ ], p1 D3 _5 kenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& S9 _6 @" R" K9 x) y
months ahead," added Hogue.
% n( ?1 x. c! O& w% ^4 H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 J% |( b0 O3 tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 ~7 h) B- J. Y9 \42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 q% E4 u$ ~/ f3 x: f
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
5 F7 X1 Y3 I# {0 Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
f/ z8 U' J! ]' Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, J( W( q: ]+ n4 x8 B, H! T" I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 O2 z; B! r' a$ ^; P The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
, b: \ Z2 F% q. i. J: u# N) x$ k( w' }based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 i' _/ X' a3 s2 d; H3 }/ Obenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ r* U3 ?: E% K
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 K! j0 H ]. r* l) ?, g% B: econdominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.' K' n1 L8 |% h: u8 K+ _# m
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 B# N7 V' x: y# W' c
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 v; a6 X+ g+ L/ |6 s8 v; A9 qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. B( I( n% Q; ?; {
; |1 K% b( D, [5 p N$ O <<
m- W p5 n) D2 @6 S$ r Highlights from across Canada:
& E) E1 H' u5 z# n
+ }" G: V# {$ @1 S) T - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ s% L% M% n9 [3 S( p( l intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ r: h' e! L" D7 }/ J
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- M" F, H, | t B5 Q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ N4 x1 \4 y6 j) |! i" q
since about the middle of 2007.
. {/ [! E. V2 ~, x5 G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 B+ G2 M" G6 m
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to. Y% j! ?, j* F! ?
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 D9 m2 g' G$ P largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 _+ z5 N7 T1 A/ s: E poor affordability levels.
, s) O: j- U3 x- W% D& @# l - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 E/ j3 {7 I/ o$ m N# B/ E vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. ^5 t$ h; e: U! r; c* E
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, Y1 N, r+ B- I e0 l" F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. V" C( i9 {" m! j: G minimize any downside risks.
* g1 l9 J! ?$ w5 L/ c8 k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. t# T O& B$ G1 a# ^
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is* \9 B+ w6 U% S
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
1 X4 S+ e4 S& V$ ~! W0 x, N! x: i 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) O8 h4 Z) _$ N1 [) v being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
6 h u5 D- A; y5 _% Y( f. ~ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& a5 m1 v) l, C# N }5 o+ X Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
0 X! Z+ _. s( ]* f! x far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up; ]% r3 D& X. a2 {- G% W
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. w% n- D9 ~' l1 v* C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, p3 Z g: R& E" S. b: {8 c modestly in recent years.. h2 t W, K! x i$ M
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 ^& S: g# t8 }+ B9 x% P
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot: E: w0 L) V4 l* N0 f o" o* [
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% W6 X( {# u/ [1 t( D4 M price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 @7 I7 S" ~5 }, \' d( c9 N following two years of deterioration.
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