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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - i; V& c# P9 S: z) p- g
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! K* @$ x; |6 @6 ~/ ^0 u# `* x- |middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
Y- h$ ]& J+ Z1 zgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, }5 u6 y6 ]3 c. Y0 ], Vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
+ d1 C) e7 C0 R/ ]6 c$ e "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; h0 j5 T' S! _0 o: C ~1 Bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: A% ]0 x7 O' v! y, G) {9 |/ R3 Q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
# }& f! Q$ z0 Ymeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
. r; s: |- f# ^0 Q# T8 @( B+ ^9 h RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. g& t" c2 G! d* g1 Y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 `4 k- W% E, e" K/ V4 zwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have5 U4 M! {0 l; Q$ `4 p4 a! I
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.+ g! Z: f3 V7 X: b6 \
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% m( Q6 h6 m: N' }4 L& {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 d3 F# [$ P3 |' |
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008. O$ \% [9 Z. Z1 o1 u6 H2 ~
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; i1 G! }" U. o e
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 {3 G8 O7 E3 Z$ w4 f+ u. w" t6 Othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 |8 B6 k7 [( G) I8 z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 |# v9 ]0 A9 V
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
! X: Z8 N# E# D3 [# Wthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 g! g/ Z" [9 i3 R/ z4 M" \7 g4 p
historically depressed levels.
( n7 a6 q M6 m Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( K, w( p: [' n. i+ wof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House- r6 t$ [! c- N& P K: P# i2 P
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 f* d- K ^8 x- }hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 F$ T, r, J, [# x# r- Oenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 o8 T( L* M9 F0 f- b6 zmonths ahead," added Hogue.' U- G6 g6 e- E1 ~
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; b3 j& t7 A2 @! ucities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% J- X; _( P, d* |
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* C9 E# P$ X+ u The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 @2 ]! W2 ~ h' r( g$ R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ s* F+ h# D' G( O2 P
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, q. f3 ^$ I# X$ G% i. [' ftakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( j' I( m/ V( K The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 E6 v* q/ \, I: Pbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ H( t& Y r c' ?+ B5 ~
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 H1 ^4 Z/ K+ K
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard O; f2 b7 |, R% k( J/ }
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! Q+ A3 u5 S, p. x
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership* Y$ w) k3 ]0 ~. s) h
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. S' j- M$ d) e6 b& G, k
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# P" ?& x, m$ _
* g, ?' C1 ^" K+ a1 V, X; E& ] <<
4 ^/ Z9 s7 z8 r( E6 C! s# e( w% e Highlights from across Canada:
0 s. W7 }0 I: B; @
/ D; {& h& k3 u! T8 K2 I- M - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; k9 G# v. L9 D; E4 h0 n
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing& x0 {) l! v+ `
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) `! e$ O2 C) H only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
' r0 d' e4 n7 @6 Q4 T" | since about the middle of 2007.
- C7 N# R3 c4 G( x M, a - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 f8 a! d" |) ~. W/ b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# q4 r" h- J5 w6 s. J( N decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
+ Q* j* p% Q ?/ C$ W# g: p% F largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely2 I3 T! L3 M) V3 l, n2 L+ \
poor affordability levels.
0 q: B# E; E- s! M - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the e$ E* |! F4 l% l
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. U: E1 g6 P5 u- T. t+ [ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.. A% s8 y/ p( B) w x( [
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# c: ^* {0 w, g' q0 i* C2 v) H minimize any downside risks.4 D. ]( S8 r8 \, n# [4 A
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. k5 Y. A/ O4 _, { conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ b/ {) P/ H) U) G& @- x0 b; A unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) s- Y# b& A% l# J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 B3 t1 V; ^( m' T+ A being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: e& C J* L# p j - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ `$ H! n; L! |- y. }/ i' P
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" p9 c# {: i# {+ Q- q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
3 p8 l8 l k% d3 m' i8 V: i$ r reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# Q' a) l, i4 Q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; G. h) s4 I" j: C modestly in recent years.4 D! Q4 t# r. u6 K' y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
8 s5 k( z# I% @( U- X( P general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
5 [& y4 |1 [) t* \" h" y ]' \ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! T% j8 V/ ^, a4 ~# l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 M0 l; u+ {# u3 y% G0 C- ?! Z following two years of deterioration.
5 e; k, {0 @$ ?' g >> |
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