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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC , o0 K1 o) ~, I4 C$ R. m4 a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the! A- b% j/ P0 A- _
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive r. L7 p' ?2 l( [
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( S: |3 A4 \; |
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. u1 d% M3 [* r, \0 O; {* x, E
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 r/ l" E+ {% e3 t) k: Ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 L- F3 @" f5 K7 cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" b: {2 R: I0 Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 K0 E0 Q$ ^& V( e+ L" Z- O7 Z0 }- N RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 c; i! p6 g5 H. _) i* X8 b1 Xworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% B8 r& I3 k' M- i& cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 k- l& V' B# I: _! R
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, n& K9 o& J2 Z7 ^ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the1 p3 B' W5 a9 C0 j3 k) e- Y8 R
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: M7 R1 [! X: Y1 r+ G/ mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ p6 S% u$ e* ^Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ m0 n" x7 s4 xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 n! f2 x, ^$ I% l2 }: J: p, X4 b
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& X; R0 o! q( n: U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
& Z8 t; E) m& [8 n( @4 c6 J( Qmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& c2 U$ a% R3 E1 Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 {. @7 |- S. @1 d3 z9 y0 k) K
historically depressed levels. O9 X1 v4 h; M' `. h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# z& j' D; ]/ S* Hof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
m9 g# ?# n" p' S) P: L+ Fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the) U- E, C; y- F
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 b. p/ V- V6 Y5 w2 P5 @9 s
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 g6 M! f! s1 M- M# q/ m& ~* X; N
months ahead," added Hogue.1 o1 O, c, i. H( y4 `
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 j% h. L/ F/ P; E( tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 U) j8 U8 t, d# }
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 o8 _$ X: X8 f4 w! U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) W/ l& ~+ I& O$ |% g& r/ S1 N
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ Z: \8 s# r4 [' a7 A' r! G1 S2 Scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only g. A, I% ^/ p# v% N$ |$ c
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
' e* A6 O7 g- R' H( ~6 E t) U The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is2 W, R) Q. x! ^5 ` e$ _/ r1 z( h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 h, }2 }: t( I5 ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* V3 Z' T5 R+ k4 L6 D7 z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
5 Z( q+ E) y3 C) scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.9 C2 T) e& I# Y: d! K' T
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: I' r% S) x1 w$ g) R
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 M. O: i5 N/ w- d. n* qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
) K: ^) j( W8 J1 T. _
+ z- ^0 Q# ^/ J' p7 w) s5 y <<! R% a9 Y8 p2 q. h
Highlights from across Canada:
2 V v' I0 ~" H- G* \/ W( @9 P' _7 i+ N& E5 s
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- Z; Y% r8 B6 ?- x9 d/ c/ t$ L intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 @9 E o, z/ _/ B home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- X! f9 B) A5 A# f) f2 n9 O
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! v# m* p# C# }: g
since about the middle of 2007.
; l b4 c5 o/ L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# Z' N/ C, U9 ^: v* {4 {; M8 o
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to: c, G3 O, [. G/ l- ^% X- D1 h% j( b
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: n* s0 u" X \ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 Z0 m& V- ?# d* b poor affordability levels.
0 Y, W) r1 h8 L& c. x - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& l* X$ \4 J3 o- R) O% T( @2 w T; M ] vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ w! ~9 q( l7 g1 T prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." D) Q; Z" P% ~! h9 p
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 Z: r. x7 Y" C7 E% a" N5 \" N: y
minimize any downside risks.
% z; \0 | |# X1 h" f6 g - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 B) `" Y) j( v" W' Z1 b1 {
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
; i5 c( l( ~9 r7 Y- ]/ R! x unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early K& }: k) A3 j0 i
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
. w8 `: ~/ a) p8 `9 t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ d- T7 u [5 J9 e
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
! E- v2 t2 v. X& l+ h4 l/ \+ b Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 M; p h; X; S; E9 ^. X& U
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: h7 `9 l- I. p/ m" ^) _# i0 s reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be5 O& w8 ]2 R2 I- o+ q2 |
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only# s/ H' r8 v* ]# d! c' ^9 e0 q4 A
modestly in recent years.
3 l1 C0 T1 w( N, Z1 R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 J0 B/ e& ^9 }: T) M general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot2 K1 ]* [& F2 T! \+ b
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward. o! ?, H1 h% U! I4 W
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* }0 F$ T, z$ ` ?6 v' O, O following two years of deterioration.
5 ~/ V- ?8 |5 B( J4 F% C/ E >> |
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