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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( `9 A* v: |4 _: r6 }. ]8 i TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: \; c/ h, N) o* lmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! Z: ] W* ?0 r+ Q! [2 U5 [' jgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 k5 V$ b; v. i* y) K* haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# [4 i# S$ a2 J$ Z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 }6 }' U7 {6 |+ p4 x/ u% b
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ [& f' v6 f8 v' ^5 Z" s8 Q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 [ ~. |! T: q6 J0 b3 P. h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 n5 A' c, U, T6 k) T) M
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is8 y$ V$ y' |/ m) m* k
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; H6 ~( a# q. m+ Z! f1 [% L9 Swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& W) p$ P3 H- I9 lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.+ S( I) n- j( C y' h: f
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
3 j3 {) @1 M2 X- [; C5 ^: \7 oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 h. F" b. ~4 X* t/ E& l$ Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 C/ d! m) t0 ^
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ Z4 v1 b) u' N, i0 d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and t1 l7 v. y, `2 l9 d |
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 f9 ?& q/ y7 y1 U* z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets& u, `# | m; Q: M, T
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 L: H& i2 B) D5 ?/ Y1 r% Xthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) ~7 I2 I$ |5 Y1 `8 L8 hhistorically depressed levels.
, i* F" b' q5 F1 V- S Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ _) E1 S. j( ~7 `
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House- _. {6 }0 K0 N2 N9 h: ^
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
: _+ P) X7 A( r% o; Fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& j* r5 K3 c- }5 l% a( H. Y5 r
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* _% E* t: S: Q: I/ pmonths ahead," added Hogue.
" X8 [; {2 T5 {1 X) W, V' F! D RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 D Z, `4 a% D% z" K4 B N5 Tcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary! H4 e* l( x0 ^' b$ K0 T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% t9 C! x; X: h# `! q, S2 k5 y The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
8 w: L# Y/ i Pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 j# c3 }, O' U; [/ J2 W3 Y) l) {
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 S) K4 q- X/ R! p- d9 Wtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
; [0 i+ a( ?3 m1 G0 h0 N/ N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 H7 e7 Y; Z* O! Z3 U9 q0 ^
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' Y6 W% ?/ h$ S8 D2 O5 m/ K! {! ^
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' [5 d* t* ?6 i: ^7 K
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 ^3 Y! h) P% Q+ R) w4 b2 t& `! l
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
A' m4 Y% K1 u. zFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- r0 V/ s1 \: t/ a1 O" H2 ~1 Icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) u6 o- h2 G- m0 ~9 i2 P# s4 ]
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
" B% Y7 q6 ?: `; z# M6 v J" j
) Z! i; D% Z* q <<$ F! M# G3 f9 D9 ^! m
Highlights from across Canada:; q- T6 H/ Y$ H: Q; I: U+ d
7 P( N% Y3 Z3 v1 c# t9 i* ~
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
% a; x% E& v1 h' }0 G intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" Z4 B" C. Q. t7 ~
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& r+ J' Y' r% i; G4 C2 K3 d
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
6 K9 h1 a# B; r2 A3 N) J& _: u since about the middle of 2007.# p) X. A k5 [3 h5 G) `' i
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' x( U9 F# ~5 Z" M4 e/ G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; Y: C) V+ G5 E0 ]" O decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still }2 \3 O0 D/ h0 ?( C# s6 R* A f
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
1 ~3 ^; M" Q' p1 b- o& n- w poor affordability levels.
" B1 c( Q3 h9 ?4 w7 l9 d X - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* b6 L3 T5 @" I9 E0 a8 C7 x) J
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 T. o9 d- O# X5 Q' ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! k6 l% U: P/ w3 Y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ I/ X3 A6 r, j0 T7 R2 h' G0 w
minimize any downside risks.
7 h" }2 G u2 |8 p3 J% n - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ y; \& B' q* p conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 h" t7 p9 j8 q( U, ]0 m4 V unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 o* V% S0 s' D: O$ k0 L
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
7 X: u( G) y) e3 p# o" `6 x being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ m# `3 m' Y2 V2 u4 z1 G
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) h5 |8 h- ^3 ?; H Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 f; e- e' J; D, [# z! W3 q. s- Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! O' Z! k5 q' U& z! i5 [% F reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" Y$ H/ s9 {: A3 \. a0 L ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% m# Z, x; L4 p: ~; u, @" a9 @$ \ modestly in recent years.
$ g: Q0 F' L# d) r - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- w$ P! \, |' L- c5 T y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 T8 ^: R' F7 ^
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) J6 W. W$ I2 s' @
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ S2 D, B+ q5 M" A
following two years of deterioration.
2 Y% Y+ O; P) |( t3 e( ]! p% n >> |
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