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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ) N9 T$ Y- o* u) s v
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. n4 P) _: M: e+ @, a
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 q" S' y8 G b! D3 K" d7 Bgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
' O! l, j, c$ h& qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& z7 B$ W# T$ Z/ o; t1 Z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 F4 }) k, o+ q' D! i
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ K. p+ P$ o. a4 j# N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 }& x0 s' X& q: r v, jmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' ]+ g+ f1 L- i RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
% u9 Y2 K8 y* F; | p; Q8 nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 u% `! m( y" R- m; Y; J! V/ |which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ V% ]9 B+ U% U$ g/ S: Z- `sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 V2 ?0 ^3 W) q. e! O8 A) v* g5 | The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the |7 p& `* C f$ U9 n
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a7 ^4 ] o" K- X' N' m F8 {. ~
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% v2 U4 R$ M; }8 P' X) T; y
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 l+ ?+ h- ~* A. J* s0 A6 Mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# N; Y6 e# @5 y. q5 _0 Uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent." Z* L6 Q. ?4 l6 C, M$ c# j6 l; {9 b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
. b# R: \' {6 H. Z' jmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in2 ^9 w! s6 ^8 g0 j" X2 i0 V6 b" U
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 f( I! r6 _7 ~. _& C& shistorically depressed levels.
0 c4 M% j& V) D# @( ~# g( P Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& c1 [8 b+ G4 C% A5 b% h$ {% S8 L
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( Z7 [; e* y+ n- _prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ d( {+ b" y& Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& Y2 y* o* c$ P5 l- u0 h
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 W8 g% D7 K% q. } l* C% t
months ahead," added Hogue.: k2 ~9 c# t: g- X0 h0 a4 S7 E4 b
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; r/ i- x0 H! x1 mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
w& {0 W. r. E+ n2 M42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 |" m8 N8 e6 p! b% d( l# t: N
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' A. ]0 A% @4 c# Ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) Z" _/ F, `: t( _, l. Z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, V* a2 s% O9 Atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
2 @; G4 t) [# P% ]" \2 t The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is& N F. j/ o# B: g. K, k- ~
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' k4 r" [8 l/ A- b8 Y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; E+ C# `* Y5 v8 ^# {2 Y' x; h; G
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 k9 t/ T5 F9 x# D, G: s/ Wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" J" T$ p+ G( Q. g, HFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 D6 w3 n4 x9 Q+ R/ m. M! Qcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
6 A4 u" F. R' {/ o. ]+ V$ \) y" A4 |( Nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 T, r" S- i K3 ]- P) x; [6 i! d8 |
, B/ G1 o5 O# D' Z
<<( u) x" z) e" ]8 F
Highlights from across Canada:, ~2 e; L$ [* L: J
8 w" Z4 i7 D B" Q! q5 U
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 G6 w, C5 A O; [* h
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing% d& n' X8 Z8 ^- \. b9 G$ c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 U6 a% J. V2 F W$ Q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 t8 a% I0 _, G9 H/ N. x
since about the middle of 2007.
5 m) g7 Y6 I' ]/ p( ]9 ]8 D - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# B; q: K% N8 V) S0 ?" K9 G _- T8 `5 I
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) z5 S( Z5 M* r( a7 h# B- E
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ s7 N% h5 P- {; i9 e largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely |) n" w- s5 [
poor affordability levels.
8 _6 v5 w$ {& H2 Z$ | - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ @/ f5 d7 h# p5 n
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! q2 R/ j2 E, F0 s prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: b4 l- L( O2 k7 O! m Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to! q' F% x& H0 ^. i( I* E
minimize any downside risks.
& i6 n: ^/ \3 C' f. k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, r0 N" ?* x6 L0 [ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* B, @1 }* n+ p* ? A7 I unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* t. g0 X) P" g+ N t) T
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ E# B7 T9 [% m0 F# P$ c5 ^0 X
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* N2 n3 s/ s1 P, |4 c
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ D' ?9 M$ |+ y" q2 z5 l
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus* q, H% a" e- O; E: S
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
; z' x% S( S, z' @) O) j% b3 { reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
7 u$ U1 E t! v% W' X7 U/ R. Y& g ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 G* r' t0 Y' l8 O! v
modestly in recent years.
, D; t/ s5 C# t/ z1 r - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
' Y% i! @; _6 ^! W- i7 m general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
6 K5 w: F- g$ e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward @# s- m. S* C' n: Y; z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
7 z: G; s; ]% r8 u8 E1 T- V following two years of deterioration.* }4 W+ w' b/ P% Q H( [. d
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