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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - ?5 u9 B( e; ^& {4 J
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' T3 f1 Y) K! \$ c, V6 {
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ ~0 ]; p, }% Egains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
; p& `& }3 ]: ]( i) Q' p; D4 _according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. ^: E8 a4 \. z/ _& | X' ^. ~ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 B4 l: b* v. ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is1 A( E) M( ^& p) F: f
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: k" b. _ R7 J7 K1 d( T
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 [; i2 z' C. t V+ a: Q/ b1 g) K
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
e" [ N. H( M" P9 J6 d, U4 nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 W/ r" e" H3 ^( w% Dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
+ f5 R/ U; B ]& Ssustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.0 q/ I3 ]' g: k4 V& }5 f
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% m0 K- o$ g7 j( o5 D
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a) M: J0 o5 p! J1 L u8 a3 s1 Y! z# _
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.5 j+ [( D6 x8 k( [! H
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. U# Z) {1 [7 j/ ?
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- M7 U0 A+ S( x) q5 a( ~; K; |
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, Z" T7 E+ q0 ^% V3 W According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets5 g9 T8 y* N/ T F2 `+ M
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- j7 T1 g. O7 Z
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ R: r8 P. U. B7 `- X ]7 `2 \
historically depressed levels.! ]' b/ e! I% b
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- v2 J, V' u8 fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
T& P4 [, M4 h8 @! m% \! rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the5 i* Q9 x8 Q( o- z1 y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 _/ A$ O n- N" ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
' v9 Z- z c* W N8 r* _9 c# q7 omonths ahead," added Hogue.
, S: p0 z% A4 ^/ Y: q) O RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) ]7 _4 r+ _" c$ r$ Scities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 o* p$ r8 X; a0 h1 f% u/ R42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." f& Q+ M7 n7 {3 s5 w
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for4 H0 ^+ v; B- t( s) w$ Q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 \# b4 _ Y4 [9 scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only1 r7 \! p2 n: M. u- ~ f9 F: F( G
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* S1 E0 D6 |/ [* Q+ G The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# o+ e+ u: c2 G, x
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. b5 p4 M: ~ V8 } k, |$ e( R& \
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# v5 e/ Y8 K P8 n% w% E+ A: v
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ q& U0 b8 M' X& N3 B5 V) m bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* ?/ k7 H- r4 w- v
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 B# w! x' h; t6 a2 M# n
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# d. Q/ D$ U' ^# L# C3 `
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, u+ x: T$ c% e, _: ?
) Y3 m/ X* Y) _2 F2 x; } <<# Q4 C' O: v, L6 y
Highlights from across Canada:* K7 F( e9 [+ i5 w% q$ m
1 V# H3 u5 \) m. @7 w7 A
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( S; X* M( j5 W4 X" z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 A1 M) C- g/ V home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
% ?: p3 u( J2 ^- e I only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 E- B1 R( x0 w# O& i" x u since about the middle of 2007.
6 F/ Z. G- M' h! x - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; F% c* Z A7 h& T) r8 P# m( \5 J' q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) r) P* H- O1 N e h7 ~
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
k* u- S! k5 ]) h$ y, w largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( u. i( }. I5 u# ~& C poor affordability levels.
& \0 t6 o0 W( v( y - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' l7 V: E, K( i2 T9 E* n9 k5 d- H
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( R+ E# G0 o; P) | a6 S% N1 I prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 k$ p& h" R6 F+ E1 u+ ]& u; Y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 W! z) b# X( y
minimize any downside risks.% @/ O& Q/ I( o$ G) w( K* U2 h+ _
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
' n0 f# s! M" W1 ]% F2 n conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; W+ H5 N: W% s( Y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 E/ f6 ~5 |3 |. y, i& _ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 y+ Z* z9 l7 K8 d
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# @/ S* b6 U) D0 |+ F7 J - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 A/ Z' S" d+ E }2 g Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 b+ N4 S6 T6 H; [7 h8 f% ~2 o
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up8 J7 K9 @9 l3 W% `
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
3 b8 |, g! R, O+ G7 M ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
Y+ a$ H( X: Y: t- Z3 j8 z. a8 P modestly in recent years.
c0 B {+ Z% ~) c; @5 k6 B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 d8 b# Q1 k8 e
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot2 j+ C6 s9 O5 B% o- {
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% ?4 [* k5 P. v: C2 ` price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
7 m- B5 U/ H/ Q- y following two years of deterioration.7 z! p/ u9 ^7 p8 n7 P% m) i
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