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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- ?7 j% a6 W7 s9 E TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the J3 a% s @, f4 h7 v
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. M3 r7 E7 Y* L. I7 m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions, o9 F+ ?& N5 {* D7 M
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: H2 m- P: W4 O5 _
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" O- a- ~% O6 A) }( e7 wsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 e4 [1 p; O0 {: h% K: v* j" [( V
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability* S/ u: p: R' ~+ s& |( \# [$ F
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
, \5 A: L$ H) a) ~ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 ]0 n' n" a i( d! x- ~- Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 _! y6 ^8 u. o- l$ p3 g& s/ twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have# j! l: Q5 u$ S) u6 C5 F7 l
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. B6 T" c6 X Q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 P) j7 q9 n3 i# F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 W0 t% H& u: f/ L: Z! `8 Mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% c1 S9 j5 P5 M& dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the( O& Q- q: t6 Y+ ^, U. M1 l3 H
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& _' m& v2 { ~9 H3 v0 k. S, A) T
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% I# Y8 u& [9 a4 L) f
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 @+ s A7 W& e1 \+ u- X7 @may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in- U( S# k# j& U# E8 a% v$ I# E
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at! w% Q, r# k$ x3 m! S' K3 [
historically depressed levels.
. Y7 T' K/ ]# F4 M* V Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 F+ x" @; M9 g: d7 p6 V! O
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( v" V" a9 w0 ~/ E% Nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 a- M; ^' s5 Y1 s+ |hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% I! _: Y* {, }; @8 u8 \
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 Q4 K. `5 W* n, N+ @3 S/ L
months ahead," added Hogue.* E8 M1 q5 r. z, f+ _
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest/ l# A1 ?8 z& r( t8 E `
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& _- E; D, V+ x7 `7 }
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( z" k) s& W: U/ w) L The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! u4 M' u) m3 V" ha broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 |! [5 Y1 z/ {cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 c/ A C& D5 C$ ~ [0 S: a
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! Z# X5 m. T& G4 s! t# w$ {+ @1 L The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 {6 q5 y4 J& h F0 c9 C0 l1 U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property i" R* d" [- Z" P' ?
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# d2 s5 j9 M( \: Q9 }8 fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. S7 m6 l+ g3 O! b+ k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 X' @/ j. v8 ^, B6 _ F" V
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 n8 ` z* F, p8 W4 }" ~
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) g7 b) G: r& i/ }" `% z7 H9 kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; F$ h/ h1 O3 [4 n& m3 L0 E6 Q, d: F
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8 S Q. H0 q6 h6 G9 l Highlights from across Canada:
# l7 I( T+ |/ ^( u4 y8 l3 A) M2 n) m
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
5 N) T+ i9 U5 I- I! p2 D, o' q2 \ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" R! J, [, b! V0 s# N3 \' v# P: @. Q
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: M6 {1 n4 a2 _# \" B% J' l1 j
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
6 G0 O: }0 M$ }# k* [$ ]; V& |+ D4 U since about the middle of 2007.8 o( C4 f5 [7 _: ]: F3 Q A9 W
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the. D/ ~2 m" j7 @9 G' v
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 J* @! [# ~ p$ g9 l
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; t o& y4 H, @& J E+ V9 R
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely! w7 c6 C) W/ B% k5 `1 ?7 h# O1 w& x
poor affordability levels.
9 F8 q' M, ~$ V/ a - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the) f% c' t% G3 V* \% i5 |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ s6 ]8 ^/ j4 T, ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 [3 Z6 J* d* e1 z7 |" g' { Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
, i% j9 a6 n4 z3 J1 B minimize any downside risks.) K i% c% B* E$ P u- h, m, r
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 G2 [4 S1 A: {; P' l9 r, t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 E4 u6 z y% T/ y2 l; P! t
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early- p- L' W7 M! E( d* h |8 ~
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! X5 z- h% E& U6 G3 {4 G being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 x- T2 L1 I+ g& ~8 Q8 u
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in' G: g0 d) X0 n
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 P3 S6 \! i: _8 L* A far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 \9 Q: p/ t# s' A P+ N" h- F reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) ]1 L$ l& U; m; {+ Y( M ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
3 x% F- b, U7 d" b modestly in recent years.
* S! D5 R1 b9 ?0 Y9 S. W - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" S3 \" m/ [) f: u
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: S% U& ?& ? E# o; Z3 w spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, J* \2 b, t& ^, I price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
0 B. I- P0 A+ {( z: F1 H following two years of deterioration., b8 h$ q: |* w, p
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