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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 B0 E, _9 `1 s
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 l+ M. a1 i+ S. S3 x- d4 xmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 d* e; D' V- R, [3 f0 O
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ J: h9 A0 s+ R7 N3 g- t- q
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. ?2 v7 ?- D7 k# x# c& `! V; F
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 R; Q5 P7 Q* Y* esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! t) z6 |, Q; m' a3 D
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 m9 ~8 [% ?7 ~
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& `" r6 d. C) {. o) P' p RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is& h# l$ J1 x7 {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,+ W3 m% Z3 o C* z5 l
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* x% b0 ~2 [- f4 F3 a, Bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( |1 u4 q' d% G% C1 g; ^$ E
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, E' e2 }# h4 f) Q5 Q
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
8 D: B, S+ O! A O& qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& D9 _3 w2 N! Q! [) s/ e
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, W7 X: Y1 u: |$ l+ e$ B% } E$ V/ Ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# F& @! D; ~3 mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, H4 \- n- R, \- G# y( S: d According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! ~4 H) b8 W5 _6 {2 wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 i7 j& W; L5 C5 ~" v
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 s8 N0 U; o- Z2 J5 F: `& o2 Chistorically depressed levels.
" {. S0 T. E3 l& O- }. i2 F0 { Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& N3 ?3 d) H/ Y5 u. ]4 g
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 N/ b4 ^6 c! p" u% j1 dprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- R, D, l0 q) ~hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 N8 o. s: }) H# venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: M, N5 \3 N T6 i' [% N- s& c8 x
months ahead," added Hogue.
: R' F6 A8 f: ~! h# p7 Z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 Y. Y2 U' y$ h( f d2 c- {' Icities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
% N9 G A. U, X; H# u7 a8 V42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) D+ k C. p4 J+ J% t
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
( p6 W+ c" K# O/ ^( xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 X3 E f, T, v( G
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
6 ~9 e: x- l7 b: F$ e) x9 `takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ L6 ^# p3 y) {1 H The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
6 ]% e; \/ v0 K8 o, _$ h, @based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property4 M) {) F9 S$ q% r/ h: W. g1 K
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" b+ E' H* G l& v! c G( D1 d
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 b3 z, w* U6 r# U5 q) rcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." ?4 {, \7 \6 [
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: }5 x+ \$ a, d: U, scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 d- \) i5 w/ e6 l+ x5 D# n, W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; W" a6 u+ b! {7 @9 r: K B
) M8 R, o, d" k8 p <<
$ R. }0 L6 @+ \6 Q Highlights from across Canada:( h% Y7 b0 i0 L+ {# j
) p5 K! t7 F: j: Q3 w/ Q6 c - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
8 f: L G# U3 I) b intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
9 ~2 h M" i2 v9 ]* Y& q home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 `2 n- B+ g' W4 o) E only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track1 p2 H/ v* _1 Y4 C9 A' f
since about the middle of 2007.
* {) ]& E; P& f! k0 T: e" o, Z8 c - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 X+ D- G+ \2 M# Y: u4 u2 \: j frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ A$ c0 ~% X- r! ^ ~; h; I* M decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still8 G/ o' c0 ~- u, o. R
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# y2 Q* O1 U+ I/ e8 C2 Y
poor affordability levels.+ T1 z S$ {! K/ [# I h
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the* T5 g: }. u4 _) B9 M4 u. e
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
Q( Z1 Y( i! }5 s# a prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
! x7 \7 C' T, X6 Z8 ]2 e0 H; k Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to$ b3 P4 P3 z, |4 L! z% s; O: T
minimize any downside risks.
9 T9 V/ k7 C6 r, C - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% Q4 S+ M ]( E4 m6 e) @( A
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# Y8 o, X# s$ N
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 ^- x% b/ o8 U% M: L. v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly1 y4 G! a9 m% S6 T3 Q; E( f
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.2 @9 |8 k! `7 `. z# m
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in$ t5 J- R. c5 l( p8 f+ |
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 {* z' L; @1 p0 v3 q6 m3 G8 S8 w
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# h! _( c- j# K% o
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ B3 s' F0 s' |2 G3 h6 G/ f ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 U) \9 ~) R7 u2 p8 h4 A# e modestly in recent years.
8 v( n' h5 |% _ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
& o% n4 X4 {3 A# `; M M general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; H, z/ @0 d1 R5 O2 `0 P
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) w# j4 w% G2 }: p( h
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) w+ h; [: Q& r
following two years of deterioration.
0 n: d+ ~$ _: y6 [$ w# Z% B >> |
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