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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 V# H' O0 o$ \* i* t. V TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' R# U0 ]7 X! E/ a9 }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 p N3 r& F7 I+ qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 c+ Y' X& ? l/ q2 F& Vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 h2 X$ R4 A8 P/ E9 C# X# [. E
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# n( x% ?( \* [
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: ~# \: }& U, B
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
' Z8 u) O" ?/ s! H& E2 x9 t& Ymeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."0 m% N' e0 t" Y. @9 g9 _6 p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
" g' U. D* ^: a }9 }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 ?% S. j! F% k) q3 J
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) @ B. k' U+ P4 Osustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
# m# T9 d* w# G- M) \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% C/ \$ @( r3 Q* Lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! \( n3 l3 p$ R mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: L& x% {5 `0 L, M8 D; AAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; N$ W& h: \& c. jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
9 k T1 r$ b3 R- i' }, d* t, g( {the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
H) p9 y( z3 x+ l2 l According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' Z8 n y, D) c4 C5 O! S' E0 W8 [) `6 P
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 Y( j7 e8 T8 A7 y; K
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* u$ D! T3 i: Y* f; W/ E( a: e% {
historically depressed levels.' y# L% y% t2 ~! |4 T; x" o' ^
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ g& K) u! f w8 Rof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 [4 v: J7 M) `5 m6 s1 i1 @6 Lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 K* U9 I! f$ Z0 V! t$ Y. R. b
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
" l4 g3 O# _0 y5 S3 Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the/ s/ u, G6 t }
months ahead," added Hogue.( Z) u& v J; I) g, d; v8 ]$ q& |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 n$ ^ [/ a7 U1 N
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: i/ Q, [9 W$ U1 c: G- C2 B0 M
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ @6 ] u [" n. W2 s) n: y Z, J7 o
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
[2 j9 W% |( T3 ea broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* [% k, f" K: r1 D& g3 \5 kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
6 U1 Z) a) l* m& X5 t9 e3 |takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. X* @' g7 d$ ~* m0 { The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
0 `. i0 n, o) Q$ |based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 s4 n/ [# m' j+ R$ d( c7 I
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 X H( `* L6 Z; Jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' B: J/ ~( t S% k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
6 F# `0 i2 J8 D) p2 M; [For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 l5 Y1 T- U& N# \7 Q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& o) I' V3 w. D+ Cper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 F( r2 G9 e, H" F G- H K' L2 B
# v/ _" [" Z8 n" T <<
1 s8 ]' M( @# h* N2 K* N Highlights from across Canada:
; y+ N7 H' }9 @* j( c- E7 ^
/ y+ d( E- [7 v2 q" e; w - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has \& M1 [. ?& b0 ]& y3 R
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 f4 F# j' Z& ~' A home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 Z P; ^8 i! o8 y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 K" Q3 h4 E! s. q7 c since about the middle of 2007.! z# q/ ^1 \2 t) b! [$ }
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 j; t2 F5 z6 X1 h+ F6 ]. z: _ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
/ B5 s4 |- W# _2 S decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" z- n3 m& Q I* I* |' @5 } ^
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ S/ [" B- Q4 ?% q- A8 K
poor affordability levels.
& u" a* l% A% p - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 R5 z! x' C' H2 J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* Z2 J N& Q9 U7 |0 b, E. o0 V
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 }5 J ~# G/ l* a, _+ R
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& g6 l' ?, R( M/ Z+ J+ @$ M. m5 J
minimize any downside risks.3 g- Q+ U- P% ]
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! `& q4 i, F# V& T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
: Q; c1 c2 m+ v! N" z- K unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) p3 }8 U) h* i( s! @( ^
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. z4 K8 m4 z% z% u( Y, H1 v0 z* x
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. X5 V4 h# t, y6 x3 F6 c9 F( p
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) K( E& I9 p& @+ f4 ~( O Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' [' b q( h$ G& T9 N: X- m
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' z, K, M: c, y' ?0 r$ e reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
- ]: F b+ h! Y9 I( H r ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
# `9 c5 `) i+ Q& t modestly in recent years.
# D$ H( i5 r7 Q- X8 T5 U - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. M4 _: W' M& L/ q6 S8 T8 b; ^
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ T5 X" N1 I2 V/ S, m! V0 h+ |
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward7 g$ A9 f, v0 G3 g% n
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: s3 g. K1 U9 I4 c% P) ` following two years of deterioration.# I; H8 C- X8 ]" M+ O
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