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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 k! t" O; F3 S5 L) |( [
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
K3 }8 N2 \5 d+ [2 g; i; s- Dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
0 I3 `4 j4 E3 a+ S& _gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 g: |: G) L7 c/ i8 i
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 L( O: c6 v- s: g) J" q# O, e. y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
7 \; V' a; u, ]8 b8 t/ jsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% m2 L" q% a2 ]/ \7 j% ?
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
) N* c9 h3 Q F8 a* C, B1 o, [measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& O& i p* n# q/ ~9 M
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. ^6 T% [# K' g( |, i
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: f. A) R8 }- Jwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ u9 s4 B7 C8 j1 W; \
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.& t8 Q" S' g) h" `
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the g& j0 ^ n- \+ C9 ^4 I8 T
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a U) k& R8 w4 ]$ E2 a! ?7 `
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008." R: G8 z0 Z9 l
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 v, N" V* ?9 ^8 R) l7 o$ y5 h
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 C; c) k {8 F- t0 H4 Z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. Z( [ S5 M" C H" ?% U, K
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
( f8 X' T9 `5 y- C. ?may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 S3 G' i; q0 j& R
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 I3 @& {0 W* W1 [0 Ghistorically depressed levels.0 ^4 m6 n% Y8 P9 w/ B, e' `
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 S2 E Z, K- Q) r+ R7 l
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 G% J/ t' t; h J6 q+ o/ O1 v; [, s' S
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 q' f6 l# z$ ]+ ]
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% W `8 r. I; P% K: [1 q9 |3 v
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
& V' T) R$ @9 S& f% p+ n$ cmonths ahead," added Hogue., ]3 I; |. n- x6 N% s/ S
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' F, z# n7 H7 K8 p4 G" r
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary/ s# w! o$ J* |
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( H" T$ E: V8 W" N' n( h7 m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: B2 r" ^0 Z, r! l# @: m% }# k( S
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 d! e: T) M5 I! b+ a" C Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! A7 y; P4 l9 R# M. b/ Y6 Ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ {! \8 H' k% M2 o The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 i" Q' s0 e, s8 |based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 P: k) k; ]+ `- M- Pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
- S: k$ p* ?0 `( K) o9 ]0 W5 d# z, dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 y, H' I# ]5 T7 Y+ I; w) G( qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
. A0 l2 R0 A m6 ^7 S. ZFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
n2 V$ y# f1 u8 a4 Jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- A B- R, y5 i) P
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, S: _. i2 |0 @4 L) _; v. y. r: P! I# _9 F+ B
<<$ w9 A; v5 X* @
Highlights from across Canada:
+ n* ?) t& Z2 u* M' j- t6 G
9 v/ N1 Q$ }. | - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 |$ u4 z3 i" q: e0 }1 y+ _0 ~
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
( h0 ^- K2 D5 g% b5 a home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 U t4 n6 x1 g* Z6 j only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( g4 Z' d& C4 Y+ n! q- [5 s7 Y: ` since about the middle of 2007.0 ^# e' z2 m- D/ W& M
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* p+ v- x; V6 o$ h# V/ O0 |6 Q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" E7 B6 G7 N2 ~
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
j. y1 t6 C1 i/ @4 N( e& t) ~3 A7 c. \6 ~ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. M) n# p: T1 ]* N& s8 q
poor affordability levels.% M5 S9 n6 v* i
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' e, i d; S* }' ]2 | Y) R" D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- Y; _0 `- j. ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 U) Q W# G5 a+ X- T Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. k* q! C& S+ `6 ?# m* L& P
minimize any downside risks.
( x7 F! f+ x6 J5 w$ v# T - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 r$ F% A" C+ l- u
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% B' X% {+ |7 B6 q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 {) @7 M; Z' P+ R0 m' {5 @ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& W# r! S1 l0 x& p4 i5 w2 j
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., b1 I8 _" p6 Y# ~+ ?; L
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. n& Z& p6 W7 b" J0 f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
V* Y. M, l; c2 S far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 i1 I5 D! M' w
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) b8 ?" l" l+ V+ G2 u. f% A! C ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! P) V+ y- k: L" Y modestly in recent years.
L; a( T$ L6 g, s7 Q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! B7 D# h2 E G7 }& L
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 @4 E \6 @0 x
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" B |3 ~2 y# j5 g* \4 F
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- V6 N: W/ |' j( A! L" `
following two years of deterioration.
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