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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # g3 J2 f1 Z( ~
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# A" g& \0 y; v4 Q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) D! r5 L [# G0 n3 `: D" f7 w& _gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
6 n# b- g: y* v+ c, y# D" Haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
) ?9 o0 T2 X7 D8 S" U# y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! d, h, y$ K5 g1 B
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) J" E) @2 e. G; J( C* D. Fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ z2 Q# j/ G; |- Z! E. \$ e
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."* O' [9 L. @3 \- V: ~
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 ~! z' A& A# `. X+ l5 fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& c; C; f8 x& T# Dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
% Z+ S& ~6 C9 ^. }4 Csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. f! Z8 |" f* W# e' Q4 U
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 o! b6 s' G9 _0 g" M6 C6 i
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
5 s6 H# i1 B6 Jhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% y& n) H6 [# }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, d0 M" z& |. G, N" m/ Wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
u4 Z0 X/ q' n3 E: l0 E2 \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, C8 B& k/ Z5 \0 d: L( R4 ~ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 j% R) X6 B0 V
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, Z& c. u' @8 c6 B+ ]the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) a- T1 h+ C) K; lhistorically depressed levels.
- X2 z* g7 Q3 ?* M( \- z' F$ R* l Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 G" v/ H; o6 H. o+ G- C3 \# v0 b8 ^of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House; [+ _( p- a7 V- P- m- i8 ~6 T" j5 A
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
4 N% Q2 v' b$ h$ C$ ]$ I0 N/ Ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& c8 X/ y9 K6 y* \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 a# h+ L8 }7 B6 Wmonths ahead," added Hogue.
: P! P9 w; m$ G! a/ S2 l! M! W( Y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 n* a& a6 n" |) T! A( H, ~
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ l( C9 R6 J7 x* k2 i% r, q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ `; |3 D9 {, `
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 a9 U( G- X: y- Q5 F& x! `
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these. P5 w; a7 l7 e6 f$ y; U c
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only M9 I9 K8 a* {' M& p* z* {
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 }* Z% e% p9 D+ h1 P
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' B4 N& V* ~4 I7 V- U, p0 c( v# g3 Hbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, ^- _0 m$ [3 C" q' Z8 ~* a+ D1 _0 xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" F0 n' D5 K l$ T; `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 T& ]: s Q* Q. {7 \condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home./ w. \ P% I- S
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- C: \/ @8 t6 P3 F/ P3 f
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
: D0 d6 L' Q m6 I9 V8 Q% @per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 O- M, c" z7 S ~; O) j1 ]+ Z M4 A, d9 L0 S v) E& ` H
<<* `, z2 B2 x8 h3 U! r' x
Highlights from across Canada:
2 A6 ]) d2 B8 A6 e# K
0 e, j' Y6 K: X9 [* n$ ^ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' x# U" |7 l7 U/ L4 p! E! S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( x! Z0 X, n, t$ Y+ o5 D/ [; L6 w
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 c! [* m& H, Z, l only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 s6 j2 Y7 \ d+ b: ~ since about the middle of 2007.
. F/ ~2 E& ~! i: { - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! k3 o( Y/ m, C; H/ _ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ n; V4 u& I6 @' T: Q) G4 q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ W# s7 U7 h4 I2 W9 P largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely0 h: Y, g _! ]2 {0 ]: h
poor affordability levels.7 y7 O1 a+ x# u6 d4 d* k& A# u
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the: o7 p @4 x+ y. Z3 J
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 t7 Q" W& X. ]0 E* H prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 {* y" E9 u- p' G5 ~( M$ ^* U% X
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ c1 |: F9 ?; ?* S; |7 Z+ l minimize any downside risks.; x: z! {+ w1 H8 ^8 H
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, c v9 L+ Z2 b+ \* Q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is( i5 A; U- n9 G) C* D
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 P( ]9 n ?8 M' R# o
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' n: Y2 z; |3 P, Y- N7 w
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
. e0 j( c! @7 k - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in9 c6 f; Y$ ]; W; f4 @
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 F: `: _" i2 Q; E+ W1 ]+ n
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ f/ j3 J# w# ]- P
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 ^ [. {# t! k/ U+ f5 ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
( f% B# `( H4 P" f/ x7 H modestly in recent years.
8 {/ Q0 u7 B7 ~# Z$ n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 F m5 C4 P( ]
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 X& y U8 ^* ^: M- q7 w1 B- z
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. n/ T+ c" E% s price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability. Y5 _4 K3 d+ P/ ?. |
following two years of deterioration.1 ~, V" r6 w8 x& a% x
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