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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " Z' D6 J0 n/ d3 H( V$ U; H, ?
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! G8 N( t* H* Z) m+ h: [middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
" y" s) T# q9 M4 H4 Y( X% J/ Ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 C) r9 u9 U4 W, o A5 uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.$ S$ O {' k4 Y' G% E! Z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- ]3 D( c# u* l5 h, P
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* T5 W( b9 C0 b K* q; x6 f
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* k2 d4 Q1 J5 j. w' R! [. i" G( q5 `measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 m! I; b/ ?- n3 _
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 b2 E" l$ k9 g- M4 P
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% x1 X2 ^8 n8 N# X; vwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( h3 v2 e Q$ N' l) Bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.1 ]% W) i6 }1 {
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! t) N, z) y. u9 I- rproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a7 L. V2 F8 {! m4 m) U2 ?
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# y* E( i4 n$ @
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the+ y0 \6 N- f7 |4 F* V4 {8 U8 B' I
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& m& w. ]3 C' z- g
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# t; h3 U" F7 a0 F According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
5 }" P/ k# M2 l+ |may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
" v7 y! Q: Z6 a% N8 |; F' Qthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
: W" m) s& l; hhistorically depressed levels.
6 W+ T9 ?% D ]1 Y% Z/ b Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 C$ j# S; z( _; }* p t# Bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 A* x: @3 [3 `& R' {9 ^$ S0 F- C! rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- o+ U( p& T) H
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ @/ b* S2 `9 w& H9 ]. I0 Y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! c8 a# z5 `3 amonths ahead," added Hogue.$ P0 p2 p! I0 A+ T
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! ]' O; B4 o1 |. T& [3 H# W
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: j& N$ i: Q8 E( [8 Q' m42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." `; s4 I1 V5 N" H+ [% g
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 D2 P4 J+ `0 D! D3 c+ }
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 y- X- f V; I4 S; zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" J3 e9 n, e9 W4 Z j) [takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& |8 M, }1 f/ o3 l c0 }
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# y) [3 M! A) d' U5 e+ P a
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' H" I: @, x! E3 _- O. _benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented% p* U+ e9 [5 }
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ v \ S+ ^+ c0 z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
- ?) J) |6 o" eFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' w ~8 @% a2 C5 l( `. @2 T# N
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 x! W4 W( z4 f7 Iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.$ r2 n0 P) `+ g: z
# y d$ K& l2 r
<<
5 J8 ~- x8 i% Y! I) Y% [3 [2 n Highlights from across Canada:
1 \$ e- t4 D4 G0 a2 N) O
; x# j8 Q! ~# B& v4 ?7 X; _ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: ], V( _6 K! k* t
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing* O( I4 I; @( }$ c4 J
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 g# t/ e) e' Y+ u! M) \/ y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' X# k6 |' ~" C+ h
since about the middle of 2007.0 _7 n, V+ J! V3 \' q' g
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 r1 ?( }+ b# Z! z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to4 x0 h% T% v0 K& W* E, J a: o8 k# X
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 K1 s9 Q3 ~* ]+ l largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( l8 e$ a. N' c$ w) w9 u
poor affordability levels.( o& d4 }" j9 l! [ F: z" N
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 X6 \1 `$ ?( E$ h$ Q. [$ C/ v vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; U: I- F R+ @" Y9 Z2 ~# h prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. s# ] e; l4 T" o; B0 R; A/ k; E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' v& r9 q- \) G7 l1 O1 J( O) G6 G minimize any downside risks.% M! g8 r. m, H7 Q$ a% m7 D: O& H- T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 C' S# p6 \4 r6 l4 g/ s conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
1 V3 @, U% y8 M+ a9 Q/ h unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% s6 R5 R) N; d7 x8 o' G0 P 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
+ p3 _+ t- d3 {9 D" Z5 A! y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 [; p" x+ N# s+ X2 t$ n - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& i; r7 S2 B8 @# x8 _! T' }9 N
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) P9 n* K6 z% A, z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ F+ X3 D7 S" ^4 J$ F
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be" O9 t% l' m$ ]5 z- J* d8 E
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( r1 m; \2 p( _0 Q
modestly in recent years.
6 \2 z6 T9 k2 z- c! a7 _) r - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 }% ~. J1 Q J% s$ f2 {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& l1 A8 o% p1 b# ]; _ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 t3 R4 m; ~4 ~; X7 O$ S; E; m price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
7 s: c7 w) D# e' Q' k% U following two years of deterioration.
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