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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ' r. T, |* p( T: Z/ p/ y0 G
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( d S8 w9 S. \( O' p" emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 F% ? P/ N) P/ M$ Y
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 e4 k( s7 `6 Y8 O( l# K# ?7 |according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
- ^1 o$ u3 l+ j- c' e9 p+ m. d: O1 _# Q "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 _$ z7 W( W1 V/ Q4 vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 v' ?% M) k- L
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! p/ o1 C$ }2 e" m5 H/ h: E8 E8 `0 Vmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: {4 f$ i7 \8 t- x9 t% m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 f0 h: l( R0 O/ H- s1 w# a& O# Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing," j8 e. y* B6 `/ k. N6 a
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& d* u4 d' L _. |2 I0 D4 s
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% s; Y9 ^3 G/ |2 c% s- ?
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 R* o5 e2 Z# S& z1 G M
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& ^. T; }2 y- e/ I
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 s# V1 t, X8 s: M
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& K$ m0 D2 L1 q3 A3 ^* s o- @standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and, ?( S9 ^" }' l, {
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., @# @8 J3 f7 H8 K4 c, d
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets" O# z! F! }( i6 N1 e
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
( ? c4 V5 p6 g+ {' lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 ]& [! A4 ?: u; A* A$ ]% k5 d |
historically depressed levels.
" p/ d6 S- A) P7 O' u, X Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' A; y0 B0 ?; c! Q B) p0 Tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# J8 e' u' ~# D/ R- P0 J6 j, ?
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 L1 N4 N& l' n; e5 M3 ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
1 I3 I- P9 _9 w0 f& [( {enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ W: ?7 u' [ a
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 @1 O2 `% m# C( C/ H) @ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; n3 q: e3 d* y' [0 C, u
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 e3 R, |4 Q: E+ r$ }
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 P) V1 T) Q0 E& m5 G
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for& K. Q6 X" _: N3 F$ F/ N
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these. G/ u) z( e, R# v1 `+ u6 _/ @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only" A4 k! {7 E. E4 H0 f
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
7 E7 d! Q$ Q' i The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 }9 p4 u* A7 F/ i: a
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property2 D: q- Y0 q9 l. @
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 @' p4 e+ ^5 q5 o6 R7 y* f; g
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard% d; U: h: T$ Q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
! ^) C* F) y! e8 F0 y/ xFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 }, m3 S& ] [) B; d* l' U$ L2 ?
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& [/ g9 s# X9 E+ B# i! E9 p
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 y0 f; `" e! M5 o- }. c
8 V1 g: ^- l' D <<
( v: b) A6 j3 G8 p; `- r6 f" B Highlights from across Canada:
2 v( F% C5 P. s6 }9 L# T
, A s7 b9 u& v) a - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- }4 O1 h. y/ Z. [ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing4 Q, @; i% [4 j, ~* f% W7 A5 i
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; ?" \8 \" T7 O7 f only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# C$ V3 Q7 s& L3 h9 I, o9 i since about the middle of 2007.
0 ~& N9 H% q: S5 y1 Y - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 K! F4 `. t: b$ z; N2 h
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 A w3 P* }9 N9 b: ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 Y7 v; S; y6 X+ D: G
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 a% Q6 B6 E$ a: P5 }
poor affordability levels.8 j7 V# N* `1 B7 S' G
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ U2 V2 \" ~' P. G2 D! C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; R& L9 h2 O7 t5 b) Z prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 ^2 x$ C4 i6 n, u
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
, h! C3 A# |5 P1 v minimize any downside risks.
- i/ _* p3 ~# Z9 D6 h; B4 |2 f/ U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" Y6 R4 P: y# n
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, h m, U; Q" q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' m& l! w3 \: o' a" ~4 v7 [
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly N4 q& s" a3 n8 E
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.' B$ d' [- S6 Q8 A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 S" M {, M( v Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus/ m2 f# I! W& I! g: P7 n
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 ?" O( v" e O# R
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 I- `$ e- B" T8 O
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 q G6 u' D0 K. l* \- w- F
modestly in recent years.
4 N" D& P f& X, o5 c% h* E- T" n - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
W! q/ L6 @. G% e7 e V Y general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot& o/ |( [) o# x8 @: D
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward8 U, I8 j' ~+ t0 w% R0 G
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) a% y' F: ?9 w) r) I2 q( r- e following two years of deterioration.
9 L) V2 z! ^6 l8 N >> |
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