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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
' z7 u8 y* N# A( }7 ]& i4 r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the+ B' V$ r3 X( v' K: G7 l. e8 w% H1 D
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ G, t! V \9 Z: g$ E3 P7 xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions, A6 g( P& G6 ?! ^4 x
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
! k$ V7 A i6 I0 n3 W6 |0 ? "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 H( V/ e/ o4 L$ ~& z( Usaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ U3 ^; T3 ^8 v0 q& X6 S
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) \- M8 l3 q1 L4 C
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; u8 G0 h# w) r |& \) Z: T
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 K( R% T4 v8 ] n& k/ D: d
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 \( X' S0 N/ c" X) B+ I
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
1 J% Z& v! V! ?sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* d3 e4 n; P E* ?& c The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the' ]: O. I- ]; Y! G
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 r" R9 a6 ?7 X9 N
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 I. z# E8 H8 Q0 c4 gAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 y* f- P3 H7 E. Q; nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( K" }3 \* v3 l: S0 h' wthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
7 R6 \6 o7 N& }0 H" ` According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* _! g4 [. A0 x" Z+ }$ f3 _7 r
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. D3 g# t! ?0 ~0 nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, @. x C7 l: d1 m
historically depressed levels.$ t+ d6 Q$ w" I! u/ D: a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' f! o: P) M" h0 |$ Z r m+ L
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House1 z9 ?8 ^9 n/ ?; }: i# N
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ ~3 j5 a% V5 F2 c! C+ nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 V5 u3 i& A7 Xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" B+ W7 P* n& q& F
months ahead," added Hogue.
; w: t- M8 t7 ?7 _9 e) u9 g( W RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& _2 o- V4 Q9 [$ D5 {- n: X r4 Mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary6 `+ w$ B, Z% n% Y' X+ T+ q
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
c. b. T/ @+ O The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& S5 j H3 ~+ n' Ta broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 v+ P/ y1 G' \4 n" A# ^, Kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 g+ @4 i! J3 X7 X# ktakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. t9 c+ E/ Z* {/ J* x: E, `) u. ^" j The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; a M0 K3 I1 W) D0 y$ w; ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property N& [( `; A8 k" j+ j, ] K; p
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented( S6 y j1 B6 _+ U3 X q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
5 ^# w1 h' a, p! r' y# j1 u% s% Lcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 w; [: I, ~" bFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, V8 z( p+ c* p; O& jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- E6 Q) C) F% |7 g$ yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& x& o! e* `# }7 U) J
& n) o5 V* T$ n! U: h <<
: V) {& ~' q, k' d6 L `' X8 h/ | Highlights from across Canada:
; {# l0 ^: M( k- o) @" J; p
; |0 k6 \. m8 s. a3 O9 Q - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ I; X1 m+ K9 y1 [9 s
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
/ ]8 Z* h* P& u! i4 D: j/ ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, Z! E6 S3 x* ` only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ H9 L7 m- x/ O since about the middle of 2007.
" W8 t. W7 l5 s" Y9 t - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
3 Z% E/ g7 h0 G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
7 ~0 [4 R. Q+ Q& R, x% Z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
0 m5 j) [1 L3 F, M' C4 f) n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# @' q9 _3 c, |0 V+ E# Y! C
poor affordability levels.5 U! [0 L% W$ g* ]7 B% d
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* z8 c, \: Z7 a8 n# Q# E6 g6 Q- A w' T vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) W# ?9 ]& y' Q1 d prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 ~+ s( [$ Q1 P4 Z8 h P Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 v9 r: l+ G! }& d7 { minimize any downside risks.
0 l& ^1 Q/ y7 | - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. T9 @5 P4 n' z conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 I4 Y7 M# r5 i; r- P unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
. y K- o4 N! B+ J% q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" X. D( Z$ R U% {7 ?) P2 Z( | being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% v9 k. C% X6 ]& ], n- w - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in( R Q; @1 r: `
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% h0 E" A+ [7 ~) B far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, E$ m4 S0 n3 k' S% e7 _ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 V1 f; Z9 v( l* ^! u ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% s$ |# C4 }& m modestly in recent years.1 x7 o) N2 }2 C# L8 W; M4 X9 g
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the3 P& ~" ?$ N$ G3 n* U1 D7 |9 q9 Z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
9 B Y2 T7 F# O$ @* E0 H spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, `0 d7 k3 \, |' b E+ C price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability1 O/ Z* |( f: S& X
following two years of deterioration.
) W( H( w7 }: b) n% `" ` >> |
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