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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
x, P/ t. J& j3 X# | TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the+ x) z+ P& o! n
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& _% R4 y6 w! D$ t. Q/ C& a
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 }. b: m9 K1 c/ @2 saccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. w+ F# L5 F: L' w5 K "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ s T5 z3 E, q9 X! b; lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is7 |* `+ F) p) L Q+ Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability/ R9 C, Q; F; |: I2 O! Q' W
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ q/ I# ?7 J2 e" ?1 D" {' L RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( \) k6 @0 g6 ~9 n% U8 B
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 P' P1 P7 [+ X4 S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 f! A w% D3 f3 w/ Vsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 i2 o! Q5 m, Q' C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
" x* n* y' A ^3 Z3 S0 v( h+ s3 Y0 oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" D9 C! K2 _, A/ x$ L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
# y' T3 L: F% B1 A1 iAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- ?& d& x# l- L5 a+ `$ J( u5 b+ e
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) z, }+ x; o' O, w$ Z. y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# c3 r8 v1 D1 W4 V
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 x! C5 T& q: S: V2 c) fmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) T/ p# U7 W/ o9 J4 y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" k5 ?) f0 h7 J! w$ F6 ?( D$ l' t
historically depressed levels.% _3 y; I3 `# N+ N
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost% @* h4 ]8 _' @
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 @; ~' _4 v# l' \$ N6 s2 q' b* ?
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 |: O& ~: f, E5 r
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' ^+ K5 p$ c5 Y8 h/ A( l% x1 _1 ^enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 \9 d/ h$ @6 Q+ I% c4 `
months ahead," added Hogue.
3 P# m3 f9 ], }! a* V RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. m. n* h4 Q7 S9 {: ~0 @) Z- V9 }9 s
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ d/ s0 d4 J" f9 c0 N* w% n' a42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 s9 @! ~. w# v' Z" o" `' m6 U$ I$ a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
/ [; n& ~. s, |" ?# O1 [a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 H: i/ G! w1 x7 h9 t* B) X0 L5 tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- X. f# `6 [# S. @takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 [' L J$ U/ y" ? The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# H* H) w. I0 k7 j8 R* ^0 Bbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
/ h" r' e- v9 abenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 j+ U2 J% F# ]6 kincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 z( J: ^3 k+ J4 i3 Wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( H+ M* z" k7 _" t$ e& W
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ t2 T8 m2 H- _9 ^4 _
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" `3 h1 U7 x4 E! n) N% `per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
! Y0 H! X8 t5 O4 s0 |
; m7 A, D- x u: g <<
" J6 \! |4 l% e" b Highlights from across Canada:9 c5 V8 Z+ n' z; `1 }
" c% F: R2 a1 G, u& ?
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! e- k4 t- D& X$ m! x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# C6 [6 i4 T+ Z; }2 G home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 d T; t' n6 }0 f. _8 O7 x only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
5 I" {, t# m/ b5 d- z; d" S since about the middle of 2007.7 j& j5 b+ I9 ~
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" o/ p I& W# b. N6 k4 C frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 D/ i0 m( y* m, ?8 A; Z& [2 ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. ~! i, E& C0 D) `' B( g% {& { largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* s4 C2 B ~: _. d' v' I poor affordability levels.
: w( Z" m" O @ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
T1 O& G! c2 }1 }4 \1 w% k vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% |, A! n3 t. S: @ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ b5 R! d& F! w: ^/ l, s1 \ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. Q4 V( u2 I2 w0 D+ O ?% {
minimize any downside risks.
0 K6 A# Q% y$ ~7 C2 ^4 D - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
% I& F2 L) J- j0 d conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% F |4 A1 s1 b n6 C
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& a3 F/ |: O+ |9 Q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( c4 H" M1 }) d. J
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' n/ U) w" ?" {) C- \9 V. U - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: S/ u% m& |7 t4 M/ t+ E/ | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
4 J: \% H) f; {6 i7 x" O3 ~% v# { far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. ^, ^! c6 [$ V# e3 U reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 \' K3 W3 M7 `5 h
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ Y5 A4 }/ Z' k. b. j modestly in recent years.
/ I- Z% o4 _- K- U$ ]% u9 e - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
& w4 {1 X) I& O8 [- C0 j1 k general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 B: o) a7 U' H' F. b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; I5 l/ p! g+ ~4 _4 R price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! p! D9 l) a% N k+ |: q
following two years of deterioration.: O% G" \/ j/ H9 a+ b( w
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