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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 4 A: f+ \. d7 g5 \4 q0 p; P
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& c4 R( \7 f$ w1 F5 B1 W8 Smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 K$ u, |# H+ I( a0 Z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ h! R/ v) S! u4 y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 m+ \: M* X. B* S# d9 F% i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 h$ Z7 Z$ L9 ?: |7 Y9 w% O3 u) O
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
/ ]# P m0 `8 p4 L0 R7 Y% N4 }improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability' R; K2 C" \+ J7 X' X! x1 Y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
$ R, E% H# z8 [# O- s RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* M9 M) G( }- F) g5 O
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 u, t! H% e7 p* v/ Cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: G- r& {5 f& psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.: s6 j3 L- e3 z3 a, t, x
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
' n8 R+ {1 B$ ^proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a5 t. v3 r* r6 U8 V, p1 }
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
( i1 g2 d% c& J+ U, H* ^; FAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the! l& i7 N# X1 ^7 a3 @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; `2 \! B8 x) d4 r$ t
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
* Y+ u1 @0 L2 W6 { According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
9 B4 K4 e( {/ ^- vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 ~1 ]8 _) U! Y. C1 n% P# ~the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 n7 A# q& d: d" k7 I! G6 U6 J
historically depressed levels.$ b7 f" H: }7 a2 w, f
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ N2 @! w6 o$ l4 z2 a5 @of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 J' o. K$ p( I( h5 _+ C! D
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! U) G9 g* u! R2 {hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ @8 N2 P( H. H' o9 H& V+ }
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% o: r8 ` }2 Hmonths ahead," added Hogue.
. U. J7 T: O: |. |2 Y V) H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 }; ?% n6 w/ v: w4 ~" x
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary8 R1 P7 Q! E6 V! ?9 r7 H" T* x
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 h$ y1 T4 o( i8 J The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for' A( F+ v D8 E% g0 e: H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these" ^0 c3 c" c! \3 h( A
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
8 K# s: {. Y$ g+ c, T- k3 }# gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: s: p: `. F& {- r5 p* Y The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ h N1 M* e' O7 p' c
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' `/ q4 V+ i obenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* Q, ~/ p) u! q2 Q/ R
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 H+ g$ D) {- C0 g) Scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 _' c G+ c8 c8 v
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership+ U- @; }8 v! h
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( z" t4 f$ _5 c1 t8 I
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% I `: Q- J/ e
2 }% s* W& w% d$ j) C <<! e! d3 E3 ]" O! b, k; E! X
Highlights from across Canada:5 U% x; \( C1 t; p0 w
4 Z. p9 e ^8 g- t, p9 P: t# Q
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 c8 |% r T: b H6 h# |
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" i2 @; z- i! b. K- p
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 q: h1 J2 ]2 L only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
& Z0 ?' t+ W+ j4 Y since about the middle of 2007.
3 P3 ?% m2 b+ x - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the$ h1 ^. M/ ]$ e% h: G9 ]
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; e% P% [. O( R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 j/ j2 A0 j: o2 O: }/ x
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* H% S" C; }2 v- C" d: N poor affordability levels., }! b0 Y+ P0 b2 c" B
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% [; \" I! l$ b vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. A, D- z$ m* K
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 Z! X( u1 I# g3 [ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. u0 J$ L0 @4 q- n: ^$ V7 Z' J minimize any downside risks.
7 O; b* s- d& ?/ R) R: j - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" S7 o9 o& ?+ E& S7 D K, y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ q# F3 H; r. I
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ d# X' e8 j; q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly6 m$ z' ^; [9 C% n! R* S* @* {
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ K( G9 Z: I( U% m7 j* _6 I* c - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- l, J; [9 v. m9 {$ C; t Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ ]( [1 o4 r5 S; t) @8 }& z9 N3 w far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up# d( H- K% q% M4 h
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) P# s9 R! s9 P" E ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 G/ n# B7 m1 D6 O4 | modestly in recent years.
1 F" r5 T6 a4 ~% ~' H+ y% v& N - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( t ?, l! R" N general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: V2 p5 Z' e2 b$ r' Q# k: x B spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: j! V& r$ k* e" z( B, b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 S: ` ~. C: H
following two years of deterioration.
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