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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC $ |3 G$ @, h$ k8 z( d. v G
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 S/ r0 B# K+ W+ X& [( {middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive; w4 V. Y6 M7 @% |; n7 B
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 _! D; G4 c0 X: B! I6 y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.4 r( s+ r" Y" o+ e8 U. s3 @
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"2 q/ X! k2 n# D' q* ^
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
4 e q4 {' _* v, Vimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
( o2 F! J+ T& {measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 E% w) h$ Y' n, i/ R" k) O+ e- m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 z) J( f) q j* H. o9 W0 x7 q" G
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! U! j2 B4 h* ~- S2 {( q' B4 _which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; R4 [8 U& c. M* [' y! X$ L
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.' a' c3 H* _2 P1 M, l* x) X; `) U
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the1 l3 |; N8 g8 G2 n4 c
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( A) G! J; v* b ]+ Khome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 Z; }! x; }' [8 N' n' I, QAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ N+ d9 Q. q" {- lstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
4 `" ?& ~+ |3 j: F2 Ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- K$ r& x* ~5 C According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 R% u8 G$ {0 K0 N2 m3 vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! S. R% ^5 w8 v2 @: b5 H {9 a( B
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- C, m$ u# r4 K+ c n2 Qhistorically depressed levels.# ?( F$ ?8 i+ W& j! Z3 C
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: N& G- P* w8 }& y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 A! o3 m) f' ]- @: [
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 a9 w* p7 H* S1 Z# z! bhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: p; j# G0 E. R
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
4 {8 W% e9 [4 u8 w% bmonths ahead," added Hogue.1 h7 A! f7 ?: A! B2 @
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% p! D8 ?8 {+ [; R: g
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: ` z7 w# R! Y! M
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
" j- m9 \5 b8 G& i+ ^# s6 r( Q2 Y The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
# x* |( ]0 k( }2 R2 d; X* y. aa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 R2 y6 Z! [. y2 _3 K. S$ z+ P
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
" g# y6 ~) K: S( s& G9 H; x" qtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. j* m* R' Q# Z* G& d The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 Y, X1 p2 B. a3 Q8 x4 f* j6 Gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& F$ D) g: ^" _ [1 {& @; l
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" h4 f5 V8 A( E, S& g" vincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard# x5 U& u9 g1 s& k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
6 W3 G7 I7 j! M* p2 k& i6 W7 `( P9 x: Z0 zFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, a% X9 G9 w8 l. m' ~' ~costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 J2 k& D+ Z+ `3 }- V
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 {% J n/ A4 D$ {& L- l: f. ~7 T0 K$ `2 j, |
<<
/ Q" h; Z0 U1 w2 J; m6 \# u6 n Highlights from across Canada:
' r7 w1 |( q* u' P9 _1 @" }; d0 m9 N5 a" `0 q7 ?: Y
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ k, }' [ s/ a6 e4 t T/ V$ \
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
* W; p7 L: P0 u9 e) b5 D home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& R- l* @1 O- j* Y* g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 O$ Q6 m3 |* n. G; L" t3 I! s
since about the middle of 2007.
! n$ J% v3 e% `" x/ A" R - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% f/ e* G- K+ P+ A1 `# _' R frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. [+ f3 ~) l" P& P& @6 L z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" q! A6 W9 q5 @* {4 J largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ E* _ P) X, o! q poor affordability levels.; M9 q# Q# Y9 e; R- p: h- D& {
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the, k/ x2 R/ N5 f9 G1 Z5 ~
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
& h$ {/ {& z) D8 } prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 {/ V% W( S& F7 n4 F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" R# E: s2 N4 o A minimize any downside risks.
1 u2 @* j1 D+ O" b6 _* B - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ v4 K; A3 {! ^' ^! d
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
7 n$ {$ g, L. m2 g( F7 e unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early8 M/ {( O2 j: O* o F" E
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' C" B% g. K# p/ e being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.! Y3 k9 x1 B8 J! ~( B
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ w- D5 y/ Y1 J. A
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ y: i b( B' j( s& J/ ~. N4 p far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( k- D! ?6 i7 H2 ]# K) M
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be8 _9 q# b9 N" O4 U4 H
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, Z$ q3 A' z3 ]+ { modestly in recent years.3 Z; Y$ Z% |' J, S' D3 ~5 I m
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( C i% k. r8 v
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* k' H/ V$ a o
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& m% B/ m, [) A4 U/ b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
[+ D- a1 Y4 [! X/ n$ r9 V K1 R4 B following two years of deterioration.
+ h8 d% i& B0 {' Y: h9 h, r; u+ w >> |
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