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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 s2 h' b, y# B* Z( s3 j
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 L7 } l# I: f* ~& tmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- K1 P$ ?5 \6 s Y7 Y d
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( ~- Z( x7 M5 I# N! Baccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* R1 M( \6 l3 O9 V+ p- d
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 g, Y4 T+ t1 q$ O% g
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! [" P( q2 f9 mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% F% D$ v% A! Ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) j0 K: M! i0 g! u& i6 F0 w RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ E$ Q9 Z F) ~( z r5 cworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 v; _* q ?& H4 {which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 I& r0 D- K) \" W( y, p) @
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% b6 ]# q( c9 H3 G1 u! G The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% z: |- A% M' z# G) ~
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 R% p0 y6 E/ k
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
% [( k+ Y, A! `6 pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 p% J0 l2 J% I7 b; H
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- S' Q; _4 I- W% j8 P# y$ Z: jthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent./ m7 t" n6 j9 M) d* E3 K4 J
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 [4 g' y$ K+ j2 f4 y! C3 Gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 H J, D. m, [the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* I9 d- E" p* L# a ehistorically depressed levels. a# J0 M! n F. T7 a8 t' Q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& f. }% H; C! ]! F5 q4 C7 v4 Hof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* n' W) q: o/ |' z' P' _prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
( `% }& ~7 n5 H1 ~2 n2 I1 Fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 A8 [+ m: i3 K- xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* V- Z/ q! Q, u. _5 U! Q& wmonths ahead," added Hogue.3 a( s1 g+ s1 s; c0 x6 d. S
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) [6 | @" |3 s4 n7 c1 {( [# t2 V
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: N1 Q, O' \- w
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! M' ]: k" F6 a6 K! @: B The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( z$ d' ]. f3 e! O+ ^
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 n8 p0 o, T! {( x& z3 zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
?* I: A/ j. Wtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 R0 p# M: e3 m$ |% [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 a: }. d1 T. @0 I' q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
7 m" X/ W& P4 Y, Ybenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
/ _! l+ ~0 o, W$ t1 J% ?including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard8 ~; h5 Q, C$ ^! U1 F
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., M" y1 F% x( h" d
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# [5 g3 s f5 [0 ?costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
! q, ?( g4 F. i1 [9 dper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
" w' C1 B; p: @0 i4 y7 I; x
, ^( Q! N; Q7 C0 U- ?1 |/ k <<
2 }( ~) z9 s; K9 x/ T8 p Highlights from across Canada:
, N/ G1 X+ f. @7 p( T
. b& |; l. w. M! b - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! J G7 M, U+ J' _* Y& l intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
* ^. O& p, w4 }( _; ?' D6 x home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& U- y' v1 {' V6 G+ }2 z3 c
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% r+ H. f; ?( P4 D6 L' j% E
since about the middle of 2007.$ Y1 o8 l1 v3 L( G' Q% e/ I) b T2 c2 ?
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ R0 d9 z# ]4 N6 O4 M) x& [ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 o+ ]: V$ |6 P, Z% F decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 n f0 d8 ]9 F$ E! _' r7 ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ j E: _" w+ K1 n$ {
poor affordability levels.! j' y! e: O. w! T
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- G: w$ ?! f6 e Z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
1 h* d# x( E g- t0 |" Q/ i prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.! q+ T' B8 e* ] K7 ?- k" T$ W% O4 e
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ r7 S9 I% I; [( v) ^( b minimize any downside risks.. l$ W, x7 P# \, @9 R
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; K' f( [8 P% |- a5 g. {) p conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 E! u6 J6 z; u3 ^) [ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* G# A& b6 @1 y& r: y) v, j 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ q% V! I) f9 H$ N
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 V! F+ O$ a; c: P$ Y - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 H& ?- B! A* j( x
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& t1 O' ?' r2 o8 b
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 N" T# N2 |6 m% y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
- G. x6 Z" w! |* H; o ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) M7 y1 Z* O1 `6 ~: O: g. o5 r
modestly in recent years.
% d4 ?( q0 \! [" q/ g% f - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. b. u7 V# U; M& Z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- ^; N8 E9 m, w$ i/ u5 q
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" ^ W' h) u" ]* Y' k- P+ C
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
# t% r* F( W. T8 k D8 ?- I following two years of deterioration.
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