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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ y. r& O( T- J2 L8 x. V7 S TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ I' a# q% P8 T6 ] _7 `$ e
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& i, S$ Y7 I" B# ~% j' ?- s8 e* {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ b) ~" G- H, g1 D h4 L4 C
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: q, X- N' q* }- P
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 {9 [9 w0 y. s- f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% y1 z: n% U% V# |( H
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
3 L( p+ S3 f; R3 p. Mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* H# V/ u; n2 D7 t$ Q0 Y: | RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. T* P) m$ o# J7 T9 g8 a7 K. Q; U2 W- c
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,7 R- G( {: Y* G
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% y A' Y. t4 q" {* u
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 |5 \: l& B0 j, S: y The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# |2 I. N4 q( \5 l3 r' ~% Sproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 u# O2 y# _& K! F1 r1 _, m% rhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., ?& K% F+ d7 I$ W: T. _
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' P3 `# a9 n* ^
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 X* N* G+ Z6 @, U( Z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.) u$ z4 y3 Q8 K8 d2 B2 V8 a4 |
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) u, m) x4 E2 p `
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! A. n7 i. j. w& ^- Z* N' n/ ^7 U. T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at8 h9 C4 E5 U0 p! M3 D
historically depressed levels.; {2 g+ z# Z* S
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 o) m; b& k, s+ F4 _9 k4 g0 @
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' Y" K8 Q6 T0 t8 n4 T" p! r' p R
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 _+ h8 K- W1 }$ c+ E! |! B
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 k% Z1 v$ I0 J; x- `4 z: Genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ h1 Y. W9 {+ j8 y
months ahead," added Hogue.
6 k7 w' M( f! {! U& ?/ S RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
5 S) v7 B2 i; Q! @cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, s3 _: f N- g' L1 U1 |# y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
/ U9 {2 Y4 m' a- i _" |2 h The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. b e" _) G3 i. z' Fa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% N; u: d0 h6 E5 ^$ B4 X" g
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 P/ n7 {$ n7 P1 O; A6 }" xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& v* {, ^ j8 L
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ r$ h9 e- o8 A: `$ Cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) `) [- D6 p% T
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
) c( z) y, X5 l( N' F1 sincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) g4 L. p) ?' _6 S" _5 lcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& J; f/ u2 b+ A k5 G. P$ S. w
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 t1 k& o) c( Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) [. j. L3 ^$ h% n% u# fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 \+ i7 k2 @9 d7 G# j: l5 Z+ D
0 t0 @6 Q1 H7 D
<<6 R: Z' b" ~% M0 Q
Highlights from across Canada:
1 n! Q1 G) ?% s" y+ \& B2 T
( W! S' ^, z4 o9 J6 l' _' S2 J - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
0 Q4 k4 t, K u& S intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; X' K3 n" v: P# H0 y: g
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 p& B7 @, H) E" w* H" q u only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, X! W) l! G: m* u6 f
since about the middle of 2007.
, e# I/ W. v. l e! ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; k( J2 R! ^% Z$ p4 D
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' x2 u2 I8 L0 _- U
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* N% @, p# g% D* F" H7 \* h" V3 N1 Q
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely8 e0 i4 V2 e% k) e
poor affordability levels.
0 {/ E" W' y+ K4 [1 \ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the- C$ |7 S$ u1 ]6 j
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
0 ~' B# Z1 S! O& M prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
) L" a1 a8 m9 q q3 ?! A1 ? Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
7 B+ D [$ S0 {" m, x. j minimize any downside risks.
' G; @+ T5 R3 b8 @# K# [ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 e+ G' L; g5 E
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 j2 f K: A$ S" i* U/ K8 Y unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early+ O5 g2 u/ |; u7 }" V) T9 A
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) c8 I6 T# e- A1 t8 A# K; Z being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ }$ p, b. h4 W. ]. G% P, n
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. N% T9 \2 P( }, s2 m Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
, Y c( s6 g+ @( a far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
& c" O7 L4 D% q4 [7 @9 N+ ~ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 U t6 u, @6 X# W. b( R1 I" X. O ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 }7 d: @0 V$ l5 }/ y! }% o
modestly in recent years.# x9 h. [# {0 |, v$ O4 _
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' X. D/ c9 J) g1 x
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) N( n0 e3 Z |6 t
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
4 ^4 k: I8 z d9 _* }- T) p price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 l. a2 k4 |. K A0 C following two years of deterioration.
2 k8 w' [* T; v2 {2 g4 v >> |
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