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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 J) S, i9 P( ?8 E TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
) c* Y" D/ N4 omiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 K z4 _8 [3 @2 A- s+ \
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! j0 A8 p z% Z, b9 R
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.6 B3 g0 U4 v' S: m) c% \2 a9 ]
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 f- R; I' C" o4 \said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 e( M& F& e: ]6 u& rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 ^' u) y- m1 G* _8 ^
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 d& N1 a! X! ~9 H$ ^( Z. L2 ]
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is3 q# \) x4 N9 w4 h9 W& u+ i
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 t8 R( {9 g- t" f) A$ G2 d5 kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have F/ K& _7 Y" V4 l" y+ T
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 s( }1 A$ D2 C* } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- v" V& B& Y& Y: iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
* q7 d1 d% V3 U0 v* l9 S, @; Uhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ I( I M3 y* P- z5 R) c% l% oAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; v5 r5 l$ g4 V& E: G. }' u
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- ]; \, w4 K$ c" ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 r" I3 R) p: h
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, b) c; E: q# f3 |$ w- p# J
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 ^: a- u" O% Y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* W6 B- B- Q* p# @; i- ~9 p
historically depressed levels.! H8 P) S: P5 Q3 C" ~- `
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 Y* y" W, a* Z2 ^- iof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ w5 p4 W& ?: z, S% Zprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the9 c& E& l3 g$ }) v7 ~9 Y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ B- }2 V6 _) z+ [$ D+ O$ Penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) `( H% s- [9 b/ tmonths ahead," added Hogue.5 A H. g @8 |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 o4 k# m! h3 w9 ]cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
6 v' X' m r. L42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 k1 ?! H. U) i+ p* l1 W5 {
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. _. X7 x% `& b. V. r% Ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 c4 u$ O- U( l( I, |8 |cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only; }6 a6 U) x6 r2 Z/ _2 L- t( k/ P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 G+ G" o- p* s( ]* W5 h
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 w3 ^* y) G2 P8 j
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. h: n- w9 Q: S
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
) [( W% h' x. I2 g& A+ s( Gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 C, G9 ~1 q h Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 ]4 Z7 M4 X: D5 O. E9 gFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 p7 i- E# e$ }; X, k7 S
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ C l9 @9 O! \/ K( h( {
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 N! Z" `0 H+ l" x( O* K: v1 [
7 H+ M. M3 \8 X, i2 g <<5 Z2 d8 a C! r/ T2 Q1 i
Highlights from across Canada:
- \! v3 i7 @4 T) M+ \! \0 Y% P6 E6 f( X" w/ u- t( N! Z; a: i( ]
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( S6 K6 D' W3 R' ~; ]% G intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 N2 ]( C# f9 ?) m3 i! ~: X \ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( V; R9 F; C- @! J only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; J0 ]6 U8 ~% O, H since about the middle of 2007.
! g" n4 Z |+ }; F( _& ] - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
u1 `- `2 o8 Q+ G frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ s3 I$ ~0 Y I# P9 p/ t
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. d" b2 T# q" u% d largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
2 p; V I) E+ }1 q4 c poor affordability levels.
! P# B X, b' D7 G+ t - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 w6 Z* l( U% o. s/ i# f# i vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. ~6 ^3 o* Q2 {. s prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.* u4 Q7 O; X/ d& d) E. ?$ H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& o* Z& [7 [3 T9 D- C, Y
minimize any downside risks.
" ~, U) E, T. c; G7 f* _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& M8 v1 b( Q# e/ b: C' w4 o conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" R+ }+ w* y# {0 [8 L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early1 T; a p) o( D) p
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: @( \8 ~8 f3 n; Q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) H2 t7 F- G5 D) ]' o - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" `" u/ [3 k2 |5 c: s( ^) a
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 j/ d! ?0 M* G8 \ x6 R/ \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 X0 J6 K8 s+ }, {% Z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 v3 m$ I3 x, }; P0 q
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 p) F0 [( |7 \1 x/ c e, X modestly in recent years.
! a- F6 x+ |+ X& w$ d - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, P( C/ P1 o( @
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# [/ V2 E9 M. b2 d% Z" s
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ O" I9 o4 N0 W# b& {3 M# N( F* p) p0 @
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( b' `5 O* W* ^& e9 Y; n following two years of deterioration.
- u) e' M& i! ]' x( M# r- f# L* ~2 }0 N >> |
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