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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 7 b. d+ s. h5 v* Q) @8 v' z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 l. `- h6 v1 y6 h0 L0 {1 vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 M% y8 p6 D+ |8 a; f7 J3 ~. O; Q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! @! `# q# A2 f5 faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
0 [4 ` G4 a: l "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) f+ ?7 U) i# m" nsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is' P5 a' N3 [- y1 u& Y2 [) ?5 X
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! j# F' e/ _+ F! X5 A' {measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."( d/ p/ ], Q# _% _
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' p2 v& E1 [+ n
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ o+ r2 C I( l; V! g Y3 h0 owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. Y( N" g/ e! H2 X. e; C6 q
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 E+ ]8 A1 B& b) k; F
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 T- j t( ]- k5 S3 z K
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; N1 V8 \8 W+ Z9 Z
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ R i/ q: g6 ^ Y: }) z( X( HAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! ^6 m3 g7 i; Q! d4 w1 Ostandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# w' D1 z/ `9 R3 ^
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
# r" c9 L* ^ [( i According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- b5 d& ]# t2 ^* [& d# _
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 G* _# k& T4 ]: I; S: `% Q1 s
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at& q( x' @- ~7 @1 @' h
historically depressed levels.
7 t* O2 W( z4 x- X& b& u Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 T' h$ A% i1 {3 _' ~; L2 e
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House/ Q; T2 {4 Z( o" J; o' p( f
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 k3 {+ A7 y. Ehands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- g6 P; C( b7 L1 L4 v2 menormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the ^9 c _3 l4 A2 E" ` ]4 u4 \7 F
months ahead," added Hogue.
2 t$ s! [" ^; ] RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest# S+ U9 J; m- ]
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary$ r$ F7 U$ e4 s+ l( i v# Y/ T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.6 S1 o& [/ y# d5 K! L
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 e' Y C4 ~1 C
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 J. S ]9 M! ~; j
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: O8 L0 O$ J& ^4 etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 K; `+ [2 l% u2 z5 Z, e* t9 q The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 y! S. X" |! J, B4 Y% k4 X+ ^
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ i3 ?% i* |+ b8 n9 Y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' R' w0 l( I' N0 z# g: B9 k
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 r) a4 e9 X' I" ]5 U3 H
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. G4 a# i" V: l3 f& G
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 @# k/ Q; q+ d, v1 B
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. w$ i9 s7 B. H! q+ b
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.0 r" z* U3 d$ E9 N* t
0 m# s1 z. ]$ R; t7 v6 }
<<8 K& a$ t2 e' ]$ Y3 n
Highlights from across Canada:$ x- W( i* X* b. o8 O9 a5 u
6 z) P' T% f9 B6 Y - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( ]8 p/ e* t2 V2 r
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' X: k6 Q$ I; X8 q, F5 L& } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 y8 r4 b( _( v' w; G/ l3 ?" H
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track9 B+ t; i$ f3 D8 R: O1 p/ Z+ B7 T/ m
since about the middle of 2007.
, a" ~7 i9 E& e4 X) Z Y2 U- j - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 j' \0 d: i1 \/ |1 Z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
E1 V. V4 ], }. ~9 F _8 r decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still Z" l, S/ x" J! K8 t
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 l& l" X3 T# T* J* X/ i poor affordability levels.8 C5 J7 H) A8 M0 w
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' a- C% r6 }! O
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* r' ^% T X1 y3 O7 ^+ d( u) c prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 d% X, p$ p, J+ q
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 o' t" x+ r0 O1 T% n minimize any downside risks.
% m, g) A% W% M: }7 {6 Y - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ |8 I8 i" J& B3 Z, y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) J& X q" M+ V6 S9 D
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& u i5 |, J7 b& S; A
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& j) ^6 H- V. i# T: e being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 A# t+ E l h+ t - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
3 V2 S4 C2 W! t6 K Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 n; J" y0 A* f; x; I) k far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* G( P1 t+ j4 i$ @
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be Z3 a" N7 ]: Q2 j
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% ?3 _6 |" O* F% T' V8 Q modestly in recent years.: @: H( _# S0 l
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* n; O0 ~' ]2 {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot2 C' p. H4 o" N4 g" H# u6 R
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( U W; a8 t+ [4 m9 V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 n! ~1 U9 c5 q" p- t2 y5 p! w following two years of deterioration.
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