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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# ]9 T* Y- h8 @5 T TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the+ Q$ s0 J- Q, F4 }% R
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 z& `% Z( o: h: o! n% Q* J, Ogains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ q5 w. I5 Q+ L% ^8 a+ N
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.! x7 Q" _0 k( V7 \- V
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- z# B. {% q6 _$ ]: N6 asaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 @9 z2 k8 e4 S2 { M
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 x; @) S) E1 K1 Gmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% u: t+ q) k; l9 t m+ v4 T/ b }9 C$ j! a RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ I# K' v- Z# z. _2 i# G
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: ~4 S9 l& a7 z; iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ P! [$ u$ _# u- K# t, ^
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." z8 p {1 B% E s" I1 m; G
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: m4 I5 g1 L& r1 u5 N- C2 jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 e" G) t( H3 Z" }6 p: i+ V S# Ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.# B( G& u7 c3 z6 n6 E
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the7 O o1 W. a! M
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and( t0 T% t3 x" ~. g) V, ^3 D: E
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 U8 R# P! D, v' b According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 K- _+ @2 F( q) p' k8 smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ Q/ C5 f ~' a7 `5 R% z: ?3 @6 kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at6 m# d p2 v, n4 r: f. W
historically depressed levels.6 g: y% B' |) i7 S! d4 Y1 l/ ?
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost* {' f# R9 x# n: b2 U! |5 W
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 j, g- `0 q2 U$ v' z' N7 lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
1 {; J+ `4 v7 K. N# p' [) c7 i8 [hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" o3 x. [6 T5 o
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% F: v! y" ]* H/ u
months ahead," added Hogue.! L. R/ M" @: Q
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' P# K! B. G; E! [ r, ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ w' z5 I/ n Y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 ?1 J7 a2 O% S: q: ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 f4 {* M: i- w( K- |* q; o% t
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
+ Q2 L0 W3 D+ i0 Q5 b2 g6 ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( p0 j% b' q, J& O
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
9 M+ R2 B% ~5 z$ Y9 ^* o& ~ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 g$ P, @8 i; ~
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ p' p( w) s6 ?1 A6 C ^
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented A6 F* B1 }" U w4 Y( \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 F K$ K, j7 N d* K4 L$ R
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ a, W2 P, P# {0 Y$ u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 S w! f' L/ Z; _! fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
$ v* _' T0 V' T* ^' c5 l& H1 |3 F1 L; Fper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 h* j4 L4 E' h+ T, g n* m# r) U+ X/ p. {2 Y
<<& Q$ C; W5 }6 N- L1 d! X
Highlights from across Canada:
4 \0 C$ ^, K! t: L3 a J8 [; @# e1 N: ^3 e* S: E* L5 s6 b- W% I9 a2 i3 j
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- a0 h+ {& t% t intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing. w5 q- S2 C8 B: X- o3 N' F) E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
/ `- `% o8 [" g only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* b2 L2 O& T( g3 L! |( @ r) v+ I
since about the middle of 2007.
6 r/ T8 }, v" A# d* a* x. n - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 }! `1 _5 _; _$ j" \3 k
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 n1 r$ P" [) H4 A decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* i/ I. l2 ]: E! W' H! g
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. E' h' M% }& ~. |: E
poor affordability levels.
- J5 ?: Z- K' r - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' g! P J+ K/ H/ y5 I
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ N% V* B$ I& @: K( V( C
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 b8 X0 ^ D, N+ d w" O- k% A6 E
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to, F' R0 @6 I7 k8 F. S
minimize any downside risks.1 ^; g# _1 ~# R1 n9 s0 R
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 g" D3 M, K0 {, G# y k
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
2 }% B* n5 o$ m1 S unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
C" v" u+ `5 @# m7 D" o1 l 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 ~- T+ R! _4 x& Q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.5 F% W5 _0 [/ d0 o3 c, W% k5 d
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" d. L- D' t* d& h$ t) |2 V$ n" _( e Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 u) u% S$ F" y9 o- w7 p far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
8 G9 R' p! O' ~0 o reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be, k- P: j+ `9 z( Z& Q: _0 b6 I6 L
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, ^. R7 z$ q/ n4 U0 H' X
modestly in recent years.# v% s& n1 c3 Q# s6 N% H
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( e) T' P8 H4 ~
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# L! B' k$ I' I+ ^( m/ Z5 n spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, B$ j- b5 A4 D4 ` [9 s! J, c" V
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
; w7 r2 E* E2 x following two years of deterioration.: ^# _) Q- O) v4 W
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