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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
) \& `2 U& a8 B/ y4 N1 h TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 B0 P# m5 y$ j+ a1 r5 Y: q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, W" q/ R1 y; E1 T$ O) k
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 t+ ?% w' F4 ?0 Vaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.7 V& ~0 N8 M J- @8 ]; v. ?
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
w) Q9 ?$ a5 k; ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 F" Q) o0 h9 @* _improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 b! C; D8 B7 ]- E7 E1 C& L8 P1 T
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; `* ~& D: y' m2 K8 K RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is- O) z( H, v# n9 q% C
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( a; |: m% K8 Y D
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have! L; P) y @! j5 V. X% l7 k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 t' H) g, d! k9 \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- t2 Y3 T/ o, Y5 E
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 d; k2 Y1 S1 ~5 A
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! F3 t4 e4 T! B' @; z' c
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 w6 k' ]+ A3 s2 {4 L( istandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 [: r8 o) P- C/ b. g' Rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, T9 a6 R8 \9 i! w+ d. F According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets1 f8 z, I, g1 y5 |* g4 g
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 b d/ f' Q0 ], J1 J
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 R. s* U9 C7 g, z( }2 Q; Shistorically depressed levels.. r% ^. L) f) L# b- O6 {3 h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! g: y% ?9 A& C$ v9 Yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ y% K7 j% A1 E$ }$ X3 Jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
) a* Z1 e6 }9 v( U! ehands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; T! j; ~* z* W6 \8 R
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, T/ j8 p0 K- E1 |4 Umonths ahead," added Hogue.% `( m F6 s! L6 R5 q$ ]! w
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest d5 _8 d8 @8 r+ {8 E1 C* r8 F& Q
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- f" H! U$ H/ t9 \
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) {" s. Q' o; }" F/ k2 l+ t8 s4 n The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) y, ]$ F8 _6 T D' Z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ [! }! A* Y9 l$ P* A9 I
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# n( Y+ O8 x7 | u2 y1 A* d% gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 N" S7 ^# ]5 i0 o8 j4 s The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 ?/ g8 K) Q4 b) Qbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ D* \* Q8 E$ k5 K2 o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" [* c) J$ }* b) {$ N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 I& m6 g6 P" b/ K! g
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: q1 Q2 o9 o6 R; r% g. u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 j4 R" P8 g. h' `2 A3 D
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 508 g1 o0 L0 g2 K8 f" [
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 B# H- V3 D: W7 F/ x( t' i
& D: a3 l5 m, F7 O9 G <<
0 x% f" o; u0 V2 v. [ Highlights from across Canada:
; R% u2 v6 {) {, _1 X2 ~1 \* u; G4 H* z( z# `; X
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; ~% I- a- t$ z% V& \
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 t4 r% g: h' _5 V" b5 l- l8 w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 V% ]; b4 [# u only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
3 |* r+ Z; D; V8 k since about the middle of 2007.
) {$ L4 X+ j$ ~# n( l `; d - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# z( d1 i: J- X3 g+ o8 s
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. Q, [# H% t( ? C0 b! ^1 S# Q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still1 D1 C. E7 ~8 B. P
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 p/ ^/ m [- q' e poor affordability levels.
! X% V1 q! \' Q: k9 J - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% Y$ }; u! O' j vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 h7 }/ ~4 h7 x! ?; r7 P' _ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 E( I. T1 G: w. d& H' h( t+ e7 U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. ]9 ~# _# m( ?- r/ g# C
minimize any downside risks.2 ]3 x6 Q: z9 ~* k
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- n7 ], P/ ]3 x
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
O3 I% W) ]6 ~. E0 J- N unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" i9 @( I( f- D, Q) E 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( c1 x6 m8 l4 n% d+ a being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." O5 E) @( S2 i$ S) H, V
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 \ T( Z" L4 `/ Q0 v% z Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 Y" `1 I7 I# f8 T% w" R* \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 S5 v$ H r# v: Q H
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ v4 M1 C0 X; I/ m ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* {6 D' o* C: I4 ^ modestly in recent years./ f% E/ ^9 B8 B; y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 \, f) \$ R) E, X4 X! e- {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# `, j1 U. F& G2 p$ }- ] spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! {9 K" Y2 t" u* T4 J6 B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
/ m' i/ j# L: D# B) |; b following two years of deterioration.
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