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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " c! `, T! q6 w" v! _% z2 M- R4 a" U- i
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 g1 r7 k, R/ x7 V2 S8 e, cmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive( ?1 |! F* P/ j2 B
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 ~, y8 t& i+ ~6 s9 n9 Yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. i3 B) R( {$ h, s2 b1 @/ s# g# I
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% p8 G9 \6 [! ~+ I/ A0 w( Msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" d: ?' G! b2 }8 k( rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 m7 ^& e4 v% D6 Q& P6 umeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; l6 {4 ?, k7 E* d" d1 T! u
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 E9 t) P n$ R; [1 F# Y8 I3 M5 o& X
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: }& b! U+ s( P, Wwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) D1 x) G1 o. ?6 H
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 s& H7 s. W& p1 g: Z& W3 k The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 d" ?0 B- @! k* u
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 B' v9 o" k. {9 r* P" I
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! M. b% f; I% v. K9 e$ n
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 F4 }2 b. _+ r' [/ Istandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 K. I2 \# _# y3 H0 a% @
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 y% E( Z6 e0 n9 x( I( Z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) c; ^- x. t4 m) Emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! }) \7 r. Z1 }# b+ M- L; @
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( e% w# e4 y4 k$ L4 I1 hhistorically depressed levels.: V: f7 ~5 p. T* x3 c" l4 J
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
" u, {7 E& F% G. l& [& oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 ?/ X3 J" a# T( n' c" U0 y0 ^
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, H( N+ Q$ c1 ^2 P
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- U. H6 ]6 j% \. l" j) I- Z. |6 zenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
( ?5 R7 B* X5 u4 M d2 {5 Y' c, V* Vmonths ahead," added Hogue.6 k; m. J* C1 Z8 z
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 f. Y! i, f# S! s7 T4 K8 l# F
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary$ _# S k$ h, ~4 T; w6 ~; n8 u
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
0 R1 H" ]5 ~3 s, R3 h The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 V4 G9 Z( y$ x% B$ z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 t- Y9 F* `8 D( i6 o
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
( B% j8 l9 y2 P) f8 U, H+ J2 ?" Ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
6 Z% _, x( E0 `2 E! @5 O* d The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is& |3 J, H, N; f' C5 M
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* _, @% ?% U7 z- u8 D
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: q C9 g0 j9 }( Q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
" e2 W r9 Z/ R% Econdominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: q/ W M2 ?4 p7 q* Q+ }+ DFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ p& e9 J! ~! k5 f% `7 v+ z9 rcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 t3 d( C0 f8 m' G, M: t; f Y: x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.5 S. e8 y/ d9 s$ u1 v8 j0 x
8 D1 o7 S' c9 G' ^" r$ C
<<& \: W( l0 v; n. F# ^ |: U# z
Highlights from across Canada:8 @1 V2 O8 A, \" m: E5 ?6 I6 H
; G* d/ f1 f" S& G4 \ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 y$ P9 d: J! e! Q intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
4 n8 Q8 W" h7 L& D5 q* E home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( S, i5 _1 R6 E% Z4 a- m only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 ?( T5 m4 }% h; G. D
since about the middle of 2007.
9 F2 l* Q" u1 v( Z6 L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! ~/ l U; W: K9 ~# k+ a, O
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ v$ ~5 b9 l, o" `5 ^: X; A
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. Z7 F8 f6 D" t* n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ c0 i( m- m% r) H
poor affordability levels.
1 i7 _( k# N: A$ G/ { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; s; I: \: f- g7 |1 r, w
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" j7 E4 [/ j0 v8 _8 b) R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
( l0 l, D2 D9 ~ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
) l" w' q% a( a+ h$ ?3 \ minimize any downside risks.
$ X: q5 K3 c/ P8 @ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( T0 L3 M* A% f1 ^( M2 B
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ K1 Y5 C$ Q3 @9 P& \8 p unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 e* g( r4 f& w: f% f& u2 } 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' f5 m( j0 d' a) h. T! {
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
7 c) v$ t; K$ |% j' J - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in% J$ D5 F! A! X8 u
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 W& I- h& b! y" a. O far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( R4 Y. v1 C1 t ^, A, Q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
3 H5 b D4 D6 k8 ` ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 A1 @! m4 [) y2 V z+ ?
modestly in recent years.
( p0 X- W2 J9 g4 a) @+ ]# h - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ J. @" b, }& V- p+ Q' G general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' N& x. `6 t- f0 G/ ~6 \5 t* f8 r
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; S g6 ]4 p9 e! p price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability7 b7 b a# q0 T+ j
following two years of deterioration.
0 A! G; M3 E/ E$ [5 M l: P+ X >> |
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