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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; `- M' F, d7 N% ^
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: t: q8 r7 J& U% E% E) V" D+ A
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive+ \# O! e" r) k1 Q1 |( {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,3 q1 s$ N- _3 z; r2 U
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 V, i R! c5 \ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 b! Q7 U+ `: k3 Asaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 \$ Z" z7 {$ E. J, {/ himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 E% \+ g* [! A6 N5 n: B% k i" L
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 s! C4 a. N( u4 p
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. N" o+ ^4 }. [0 K8 Q/ b/ Q6 z
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( u/ h$ Z3 }# ~' J. h n9 { n
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
( w3 c/ F( s0 Qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( [8 ^; j2 G4 C- h3 [ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ X5 x! T c9 i; v& O( ]0 c) O5 ?
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 y: z" C6 I3 q4 P- R, u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
3 H2 [) x) u6 n N4 C6 fAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. d5 c; i, M% E; @- G; D3 I7 l
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 w$ j" \5 z5 uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( k/ V* M- E- Y6 i According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets& T7 }* P4 l- X9 D9 ^- h W) D, q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in$ b g& m8 C9 G3 y1 r$ J) H
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 Q. [4 {$ [7 ]5 c# B) P- G( [historically depressed levels.
n+ J! e) _7 Z( f) D; M Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, M4 w4 y: i' S9 Q3 b* i! }
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 M8 M5 ~+ m- u+ `
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. P6 A ~& [4 `, _0 q0 [2 H* ?0 Ohands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This6 p! t' e+ u0 e" Y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 e1 S* ^! a! q/ q- M# W
months ahead," added Hogue.# H: e) Y/ o9 E7 A1 h1 j0 ~ ?. b: M
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 F1 e2 \! ]# u j
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* O4 d6 o$ G& Y0 S9 w42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
q* P3 p+ u7 N) W& M% e# M The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 Q3 q: r! e7 Y! p# o
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: |* t A0 s. J% ucities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: h) f6 [/ |0 htakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.7 x4 G: f8 t4 N; l
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! A1 Y+ Z( z1 p( g; T" `. c
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; Q$ S1 J0 F# R( W4 }
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 n7 {3 K1 f) d& Y. ]7 V+ t" ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 F: H" h3 x; I5 f8 j# c& tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ t- P3 O, }# E9 R
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 k7 f l, g' r' Y1 H3 y* R+ ecosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
, K7 b7 s# k( uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.4 H" B0 q# T% i& p8 Y3 v( H
3 t% @% M* \/ w+ r
<<
2 D0 R' f, n2 U5 g" a Highlights from across Canada:
6 y# `3 {, v* \& W9 |
' m# m" o" T! ?. ?: L6 ]6 `* l - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has! S2 f$ U) q ]4 q% ^8 W
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing/ ~) V: ^- S6 s# l4 _
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
7 M' b) b( d1 Q. j only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ r7 S, F6 _- b8 K2 E since about the middle of 2007.
( b" L# S2 a6 K8 J - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- K O' T1 C5 C0 t$ H- I- o) ^ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 b% }7 ~. a1 I- k decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 U% J- ~$ r/ l" e% {
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely& @5 w+ k/ V5 F/ ]* O
poor affordability levels.
1 \' p: s3 G, p7 i. A0 G - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ }% \$ c) c9 ^" i/ |/ U( l) f5 u4 l vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 y# s1 l; g, F9 }7 }
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
% S, ]7 I% p. ~7 E2 I Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% l t* N8 l) y minimize any downside risks./ L5 _& w6 N6 \! }: O! u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! E: B: @- t1 o* c2 w conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
+ L4 {6 }' u) Q( b1 [ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# J% {( v1 b( }* R" u2 l 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% t+ O) ^1 ^3 ?: C6 m
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. P: F% S; k- R" w+ e8 r: q
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* O( l2 b4 E$ w5 D& K% u* u Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ q4 i1 {4 E& P2 F: C2 E* _: u& Q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! z+ j2 D' `- X' y0 B1 M4 G reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# R8 E3 M5 o5 T4 f) c ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only& ?& i2 P. s. S
modestly in recent years.$ P+ ?6 n7 f# g5 p' L
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% J' l4 p6 r3 S/ P' ^) F6 x
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% O! S7 a" K$ O! b& `
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- G( U& k. L1 z z) c7 ?6 |% W price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability4 m. {* Q6 h3 Q; C
following two years of deterioration.
& [" O4 I$ [+ C( o, l >> |
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