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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( e: V# f, S: ? x" j; p. ` TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; m2 ~% r) Z+ ?8 J! C' Kmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" h; `# u3 _8 n) \( U& C0 t
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,% u; n7 {- M, v9 o: ?! T
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
2 j8 \+ X! p) E4 O "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) b3 r' \( k9 r* fsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- p+ s1 v; a- }4 e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! w& y; |3 j- V5 ^measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
2 `0 l, m, f" C1 w+ s6 w" O RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 T* ?0 d3 _& K: p$ y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,& l* p) y2 u$ Q B1 `
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 |& ] w3 Y1 a* T8 ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- o+ @4 M9 r: @ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 Z% w' ~: g7 [8 {8 s, O4 pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" N5 @' O0 Y3 b5 p* l9 Y* e
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ m/ `) t4 r; \* J7 @6 f+ t
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
" g/ `& j4 e& q& o. ^standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
G# N! A* X5 y8 ^+ A! i8 Wthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
& ^' H/ l, I9 G/ O9 ~( q4 w) } According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' H. d$ y- d' b+ z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in7 K" k/ c) \( c4 Q" n% T
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 X& }5 T! J/ d; D$ W
historically depressed levels.
" I. `/ y4 P8 l) X3 ^) Q0 { Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
. n3 a" {* O3 R( h$ c3 Tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 x6 ]1 x" Q3 hprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* `1 g) p Z! S* ^7 e
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 R3 ]* ^4 H9 m4 venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the' l8 @& v, X2 y9 i& _
months ahead," added Hogue.! E) Z% ~2 V) X5 Q
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ e* Q( C: c; T. Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
. J) V/ q) G* Y9 u% [8 i# p1 ~42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. v# e3 n- A4 K8 C( _& U
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
3 H9 U# x" H' G7 ?) Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 @5 Y1 L0 S: z) z/ Z* m' [cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
t! k4 b4 m+ o% b h$ x' Ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: k3 e' P: w2 T* ~. C5 ^
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
/ l% S0 }' N O: `based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( I r/ J# v* s! H* }! u* q. Rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 \5 H8 w6 }" X O$ N; d) z$ W/ W
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 x, _8 c+ Y1 F: Y1 C5 r
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 K% \5 `; o) q+ }! X
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* k( Q' X! n4 Z% L/ n0 ^5 g4 ^costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% |( {' D- [' N9 r' K4 B
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
( F9 @1 J. l) I6 ?. x B) Q
+ `6 ?! |; T$ b3 ]+ _: w <<
1 y J& ^$ S4 a( e/ ]' x% b! X$ K) V2 g Highlights from across Canada:$ l: w* C2 M4 f
7 y% R! x5 ~9 c- @2 l i/ w t
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has3 s3 O3 z) `( A6 x
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# Q4 ?1 y6 ]4 R5 \1 u3 t; n) ?5 \ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound1 r0 T. U" L, p! z7 ?
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 k5 ^0 Y# {7 b9 O! K) x' S
since about the middle of 2007.
2 A6 L# G$ K. K4 U - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 @9 E! @2 ?8 }* R4 ]( v
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
, H; {( ~# }6 z5 O/ v decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 e! J# n6 r9 m; H
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# h1 F! m$ r, |1 G poor affordability levels.
8 }1 C( g; C1 r3 f. i1 |: L( R - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the& A4 i( h6 S2 ]# T) _2 V9 O
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and+ Q# _0 F! H& j( P% t% v- m2 a
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' ], W" U8 C# M' [: f9 z0 l; m Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to9 b1 i1 ~' G2 s: P
minimize any downside risks.5 P# b( ^' u: f- \# v* s$ H. r
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, G. z* [! W3 D! V+ m/ B4 K" x7 I
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ A9 N3 x- B, ^* K, T unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early" w- x& P3 T! [0 }' Z4 O5 X
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 P8 t3 t/ Q" U6 J being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) b$ ~# i0 ?! c, Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. w/ g# w( E0 @3 C# Q& G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ A1 P5 V/ E$ @5 m far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ j* r0 I: h4 e& \. O! F5 ^/ ~5 c
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be5 {, l; Q9 D4 `! g: Q. o
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only& y0 x, i6 a; K/ v* Q7 [
modestly in recent years., @; N ~: V: i7 k: O
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ h# J3 }- y& [' A
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, b+ x& J* u7 ]: ^* F$ h! {
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) N1 ~9 Z# l1 v! V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ w# {! @2 e& V! P following two years of deterioration.$ q8 W! {" n- _* A {) @5 g
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