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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 R) L1 Q* `& @1 a8 |2 P z0 H TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: ?- D1 S# [( U9 g z2 G6 Wmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ Z' W4 S+ }1 I" L& Cgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: n: @; g1 J4 {/ g
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
6 j7 m3 h& }! E% v5 S6 m) c "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 w! P9 ^6 d/ A8 H t4 J- isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- ~# G) d- Y/ C, t( C% ~1 _
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
! ^2 f3 H% o$ z/ m" R, kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% c6 L) e2 t }7 n9 ^ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' U [2 v" D0 M5 @- W
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
5 p& o+ t+ k: g, |3 M: i" }) U( Fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 p; ]: P$ z2 U3 c& L
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: r+ Z. |, ], m5 [) U2 @1 o The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
* d7 R. S) n* V O- Kproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a* J# u2 v4 L# I) M0 c- u" z- P+ M
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008." I2 _7 E2 F/ V
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 c. z$ e7 d" d# I8 s# J& D9 ]4 G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" x$ P2 @% o1 f2 T/ e2 z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; ?, ?. `+ ^" T% Z8 h! Z
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. _+ @! y% x t5 ?7 S2 ?
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in: D Z8 u. Q& L/ D3 ~2 ]
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) A0 P8 n) w+ O
historically depressed levels.( b6 ~4 P5 Y8 n) C! p3 Q5 f- R$ ^
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost5 p7 u: a* L( T8 |6 ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) t5 P3 k! _) _- Y$ d5 e }prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" Z0 y# W" u4 I& X% N! M
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 i- E" C( b- O L* genormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the9 s# T+ Z0 I- {# f8 e% I
months ahead," added Hogue.
* \# i/ b V" A* V' |. d5 L RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 k6 L+ I4 t1 t: G2 J" o
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 `" q8 S7 f8 u, {42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 }" W/ M! a7 z) \) g; K* L( F' Y The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 P$ x5 f, e/ i" u. A6 o7 Ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these) l) z8 k6 L4 `' Q7 O& K- ^$ t
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# x4 E7 L) v! O5 ^; ^; D
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.1 m; M) G' ~- S" ~9 b
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 ~$ o# O/ l6 F# p" i" |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 i# n) `2 k# L& f1 v1 X) Xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* M/ M* G/ a/ _7 q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
. Z1 C; ~: T6 Z2 }' Y2 m. y5 i: h# Ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* s% c, V1 g+ ]) k- o B8 ^% B9 b! eFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. @/ J+ A9 i+ icosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( {) i1 ~$ B `' ?4 P0 W
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# V. p/ e0 B& Q- Z; r; q1 I8 d
" [( O. p L. e# {" p( ~ <<6 L- _! e9 k( X1 u0 X( j
Highlights from across Canada:# O4 X- e1 E# r: z
& n2 ^, T) d8 J+ q4 o' P - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- Y+ O% N3 k) K, U intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, ~. h+ }+ K& Z) c home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound# q1 y/ x5 G' T0 U
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) B" s9 Y5 U8 p3 \. s8 i0 O; t& v since about the middle of 2007.2 G5 |/ A/ [: w# [
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the1 G9 f' g* N- {/ }3 S
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. D4 I" r% V# R! C decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- H1 l$ Q/ V/ j$ @ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 I* Y( [4 N) @. I/ n) d" l poor affordability levels.
: B4 C4 j) }- n* S5 j - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! X1 M, d) o! m7 q; C8 [
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
+ ^( E& W8 ^# I0 `" k1 w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 W" ~6 \3 Q0 {; a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; M3 K. H% ^4 \ y" T% y minimize any downside risks.
% g4 g; m* K* J( G! V, Z - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ c7 R1 F7 ^' }; }# B
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is! s! G0 f# H8 V! ~# Z# ]
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
8 f7 u. ?9 w% @0 W0 e) j+ ? 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly9 H: L8 C6 j' g2 D6 H2 ~3 V/ ^" Q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." S' q) X" i! E5 {9 B, G
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 L% p: E# r# \2 l- b- R
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 Q& s+ K2 N( n; x8 m; @/ v \2 u8 e
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
) m& `6 I# J1 t: s0 m( | t( o3 _ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 n* y2 U. R3 I- H; w A3 U
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 [% e! G0 I4 p, M4 l$ z modestly in recent years.
& {# h' k9 D4 t5 r& Q - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& y1 Q5 v# Q: ]4 n
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot5 M# y$ D/ F4 G, @2 z7 k4 k
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
w9 s8 j) C% P$ {% J price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
3 g1 `3 Z' u2 W& c following two years of deterioration.
1 \. [& a& @6 E3 M& @! e7 X >> |
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