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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
2 z: M" G2 x; D TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
- m5 B% M* n8 o; P6 Wmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, n/ O$ _# \* a$ l# e/ p
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- F% l+ t6 f; r: t
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 A# _: R1 X! k3 T5 Q
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
4 a- c7 a% g; T( f1 {said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* o* F4 v( \* `! L7 g9 ?
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( I4 d( c8 n* U* J
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
& C1 i& B+ M3 c* [ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is e; R0 W) H, k1 T( J0 x, L
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
) p) v9 j2 y5 Z) c# d8 ~0 Lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" O' e0 c9 Q# W7 S6 e1 N
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 ?* {2 Y& Y3 l) H, t* T The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: H* W/ G# n* Jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
! S% a v# y& ?" ]# w/ Mhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 k# j; N& R% o1 Y$ P: VAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; [1 c( s8 ~# k. Dstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and- v4 f0 n, _ D J4 {, P
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 \6 R% ~. v* ]* ~ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; S) }8 {: u0 G7 ?3 U' f- J
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 b5 Y8 ?! c% Q% Q) M' h! Hthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 I# T8 c3 r9 z
historically depressed levels.* b4 S) s3 E# v- P
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; C( |2 M5 a7 _, P7 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House- ^( M2 i+ l; w1 C2 N& X- d
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' g# ~, U S1 S
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 M8 h" O" Y N ]enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ m1 \- }6 O# A4 Lmonths ahead," added Hogue.5 M6 F( ?7 G5 T- m1 q9 t! `
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
$ E1 e& U8 x x$ @- }, Rcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: z/ R2 q. s& ~* m* d( \/ T42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* c* n3 t* ]% ]1 t) p! t/ t: a The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for! K& Z9 w9 v2 ~% _; b8 ^8 q7 P$ ~
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# R* @, |: k1 L. U* ?cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 @) H7 a1 x0 w( Otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.% Z" ~$ z& \3 |' |3 V9 p* M3 B
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
1 v/ Q1 e. s" g! w4 B* \based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
8 B2 B- a4 Q# R; cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented! C9 @5 ^. w, r0 ^' | }5 s
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard# _) c* |# Y! X' |( O4 E
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.' |4 k2 A& N3 R8 ]; r- `
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
$ k& A1 r E( I& L) P8 `costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# D$ W$ f3 N9 Q0 F5 S3 uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
/ |9 y, }7 |9 E& l5 O% Q, D8 [ T5 \; j# Q* g9 o5 {
<<6 O( \9 ~0 U1 t8 T; q
Highlights from across Canada:; v3 U- _% U% [' w r2 M& P, z
" Q5 ~8 U1 h! q' k. t
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 _8 U3 ]5 t0 S. O2 N$ I* g
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
% A! A5 X% d" O, x" X) d home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound, r' [+ I4 a: ~3 p6 v
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, B6 d* _1 [+ d, r
since about the middle of 2007.0 ?+ |% A( t2 x$ x6 ~. O
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the! R- h3 ?: L, x9 u' ]. l
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
% o5 [- l9 A K9 q! j decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 B$ r8 A6 Z/ D0 J* k2 Z. I a- K largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 z/ Q1 ]3 w1 I _ poor affordability levels.
& @& Q$ b0 m ^( B - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# l+ ]/ D: E7 E
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and1 `8 i$ Y* b6 N
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; F J; h) A2 J- o0 Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to4 G, F5 b1 S1 u, s9 {
minimize any downside risks.
1 m$ k! C4 W/ f5 M - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 r% l3 J' r* K" }( N. O6 K conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& J+ S7 s/ |8 E$ H
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 W& \2 S0 X# P$ ]9 N# D 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 H9 k* N6 ?& T# Z, S0 J) a; H being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 j h* s$ F& q! L - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ _% r4 ?% K+ [$ N) ?6 T
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus) V0 Z9 Z1 k' k1 `5 k
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! o0 e: Y# R5 Q K j( A reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be$ Z+ Q% b% u7 V7 T
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only# c) p2 I k J! z* B! K& o+ a: o
modestly in recent years.
5 X# @& c. w# X4 e5 d - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 }; _: O: \- n; b1 O5 Q; e; r3 r# J general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, p& J3 }2 _8 I) \. u) Q% y6 W
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* K! X2 A y/ M# \" z
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability9 \* o1 _. B: a+ W3 z) w. R" x6 y
following two years of deterioration.8 W( [) h( ?# ~, ?5 R @* C7 I& x
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