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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC , [1 _ t1 k5 @: q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 x0 H# d8 Y1 o
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
/ X5 W1 E# a* t2 g2 k _gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 `" r* H9 W! daccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
@/ v0 r* y8 v4 q/ p9 E "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"9 A7 E9 ] T/ V! ]# ?( c
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- X9 w$ F& Q/ C0 f: O! v- Wimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" g9 Y" s N% [( I8 m5 Hmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."6 s/ [! y& C4 w: n) X6 v
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
" f, M" X; k. |3 W2 p( G' g& [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 w1 A* E9 U) J. I' J9 _5 p
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) I" M7 c' w& P% h0 Z7 r; ` fsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- ?, z9 t* Q. r7 }, U0 N; \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: O9 g+ u4 T; ]* z$ G( J+ D" R( o# E2 h
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ \. J0 e/ O; Phome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 m' }4 A, g$ y9 d c; w1 ^# v8 l* Z* Z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- O" V0 A# `' Sstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" H" Q9 |( z; v$ h: F
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. U; W5 \5 ?% }4 X. @ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ |2 Z/ x3 T) F! k( Q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 T9 V1 c7 c# y5 L3 m$ Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at. t* h1 x9 D4 Y0 H6 ? n1 \# f/ r* Y
historically depressed levels.+ @! ]2 |0 @0 F" t% L% W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ C" A8 M% j% H, {3 }5 q! w
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. _ l. A3 k8 U5 O% G+ c! E
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 Z6 c* M9 t6 }: o3 E' K
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 |- g4 h- T6 \6 V( l" ^5 C! Yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: T+ J3 S' L. _% [months ahead," added Hogue.
& b! D y; i- o: x' ]1 t RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 [& A, H- j2 ^" p* _! @
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 }6 f+ T2 ?( |- j" X
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
f' ?& a# f O The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 r/ m% j0 m3 _9 |# Q; c) X- y
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; n; R, o2 J C" g( y: J" p& J$ j) P
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only( R1 k9 D s$ J6 B
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( n7 p1 c H- C0 F& c/ ^5 @! p
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 ?# Z6 R6 b4 Z8 T$ rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 [. `3 j& U# Z2 u4 F8 m7 i! _
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
) I1 q( q% e" K6 H( H& \6 v+ k: n6 f6 Xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard; N! K( q0 Z, o% h( U
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
' ]$ ^0 ^7 |- r' o% lFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
l% [) _1 u- x% j/ ? e) D1 ncosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 k) h) Y& A- a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- v/ I t% y5 _8 k1 B3 H, n
' C ?" p4 |3 V$ K: }6 p; Y- F <<
! i8 p: w( c: _3 g7 {) N+ ? Highlights from across Canada:
$ I7 ?1 Z# s# ]# w# v" Q" m" c7 S- Q: Z! m' y" Y. |2 a) a; H
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" O! g* J% m( S i# e& C; N3 m1 f& z, ` intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# c/ W9 `+ P% t W) F$ E: b k; v home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
$ p; K! }' {% A( N only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
, y9 e) I) F8 l8 s since about the middle of 2007.+ X& p/ j6 G* i5 i+ J
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 o' d- u4 J1 o0 ~
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& u- D3 V# b4 k/ }3 o
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: \& t& j! A* u/ ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ H: `7 U* w1 f2 a
poor affordability levels. X* ~- _0 t4 ~7 v/ l U
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' X4 z( g. x4 }) D6 k vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 A) o( l/ Q; {% M
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ f, u8 f/ @0 s4 [3 @& X# a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
i5 T6 F/ q& V1 S* U. J minimize any downside risks.9 |; K7 Z: u; T
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market" R! g8 J( f1 G3 k! M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is2 o$ V7 Z! Z; z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: F9 V+ d! V" Q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 ?3 l9 S' J/ Y5 m being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.1 c g7 d. v7 y$ Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& I7 E$ B' G' X% K: O3 r2 Y Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' X1 z% I' I( K5 ]) e
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: z% [* R9 M# t3 w: |) x reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; h/ y( _- v9 f. B* |& b, s ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
1 W0 _' _; n3 u1 Z# b( y modestly in recent years.
2 F" c; L* M: T2 R6 A C* O - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 ?4 K* J+ l% N% Q1 O; U
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% R- O/ L7 U% r3 Z8 X
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 o+ E" j1 I9 V2 V$ e price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 l C& g( n8 n, C
following two years of deterioration.! J' Y* u* _: l- Q! @
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