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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % Y! T* m% |) C5 G9 Z4 `+ g) M. d
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, K9 a5 n* G- F3 }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# W, i4 [) [; R# o; q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: e: |2 s7 B% T% p: b7 G1 Faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' T& q3 r, x# a* U5 G "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
: J) Z; `8 \$ }- v" b$ g; T; rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 _1 |; g( M! w% ^6 Z/ Oimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 x' U/ O$ [' g7 ]# {0 b; S
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ l% Z% F `; T1 T* N/ C
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ n3 x7 L/ V! e" j6 O1 R
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,! _3 T$ \7 Z. {7 ?6 b+ b
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
# F. v) T2 b' lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 H- O; N+ K1 |2 J0 `- ?# d$ v The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 k/ l3 g* X+ j6 h# E5 t# Pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. r8 N, T; b9 s0 }, {) r) M" nhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 J2 ~" ^0 Q5 K; dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 g5 |' q8 \$ u, R: n6 `. z: d2 C* ~standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and, i( E2 R9 E f* {# h$ t$ E6 W6 v' y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
5 w+ k; L& w; ?& a5 D According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 y7 E, j0 M, _9 Q- W2 s) b
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
6 [7 c! n2 a5 t. G7 |the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 Z% U6 D$ v9 t: ]0 ~historically depressed levels.
% m1 }) r6 f# Q V$ Z7 c+ r5 M Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 Y, n" l2 x" c2 Q' ~$ }9 B
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House( C* `! h6 l; i: k, {' g
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
7 G6 y# i3 T0 Hhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; q* N+ s( I: l. w5 n1 a1 V X6 J, j
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; F- Z- W3 C4 i8 v- emonths ahead," added Hogue.6 V& ]5 l( b) X" Q+ f1 A
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 d+ }& b; ?7 T3 t
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) k. _) s2 E2 K. o8 B7 C42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. x. S* J# m0 e7 P* z2 A5 W
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ k8 q& c, M; \8 ]: A* w! o5 i
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ E7 b+ R/ ?! T( J7 N
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
! p0 Q9 }3 {9 `6 N% ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account. |/ ?# j8 h3 |
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is: u9 Y# C2 b+ G- J: C, G; I
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& @2 n, L8 W" ^2 E C# h. ]% xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 w, X+ Q( h9 p: k7 S! @' w" d, i( jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 ]7 n% W/ M- C4 _5 ~condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.4 f }/ R4 K W3 I
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! K$ N2 f# o6 Q fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 503 O& i3 a8 u6 P$ G, {" w7 a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.8 E$ t! k9 P9 a" }- M, W+ m/ G- d4 Q! x# K
+ I* d# E* X! j3 h2 _/ i, ]. ?3 a9 Y
<<
/ C% p- K& h" D9 l& U& t; B, i Highlights from across Canada:
6 h/ }- P- j% z& N% V8 `2 l% C6 `0 A6 K; K
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
, o, Y& O5 L, D! T$ Y' y1 W1 T6 C* C5 N0 ? intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
& @" X. r' B7 A* ? home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
/ a# `5 [. H) c+ B; j- ~- @9 L only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track8 x: I1 [: @0 ], g0 c+ W7 j
since about the middle of 2007.7 d/ U) y t) u( m2 r5 }' A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 C8 t6 P7 o' f4 g
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' c. R2 c8 ?9 S; K; M' o
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still" g" a: H. |# C* H
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' N0 ]8 F* ^/ f5 U5 j; h poor affordability levels.
$ M5 G) [, e' C5 R0 Z - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ a2 K0 d: b5 f/ P s* D" X6 L' V
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
8 J9 N' a2 L& U0 O, S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- e) {" [& _) ^" s% U' @ y2 N
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
3 ?! k' O0 T( \: r minimize any downside risks.0 I: Q1 K1 [& b' A e( P
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! s+ E$ h" ^1 W
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ k: ?; D* B1 {0 W0 X; J8 M
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 p- f6 G- t) v9 z 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 [% K$ m5 ^* o6 _8 k- O# t being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.! n9 `9 t9 ~, i- R, d
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& v, j a9 T8 ]) N- y. j6 Z# n Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 C$ P/ g$ }0 G far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up) U+ E% C" c: Y8 }6 i
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 O4 ^$ E9 H3 X1 \/ g2 C2 E+ ? ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 _& X/ C( X& o2 E( {7 R
modestly in recent years.
e( O" d1 l1 Q1 g' i) V - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* w: g6 J5 U" j* y+ ]
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot( D, p& g* O" J+ G. H! K! D: Z1 P
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
3 C* l' u7 G) X% E price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( g6 J! j1 K2 Q) w0 E( P following two years of deterioration.) a, b0 i+ G7 u7 ]
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