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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
! m! H4 ?0 |$ b, h8 f0 P1 k' G* ^ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 B Q9 t. F T' imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- n3 i- ]: D. r. A0 P8 p7 ]5 s
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
4 h. l- p3 |, Oaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) z0 W4 R. a: |0 X t
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"" C/ q1 E9 ~2 Z$ E0 Q, D; A1 f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
, T! R$ o8 F7 {7 h" O8 gimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, l3 q& W- J& u Ymeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- q/ c$ f& s2 R9 v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
$ _; n ~& V" \8 t5 J1 c J3 Qworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
1 p2 ^% ^3 B4 }& m: @; H+ @, Lwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have1 j' E$ @6 Z$ @- J. m+ E
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 N- u, V& W" @
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) x" p. Q+ d' r4 ]1 J6 ^+ g
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; w" B) Z9 {% P9 ]
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- P m0 q: G7 O. @) o
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
; M L! S3 t3 ^$ ?7 g5 Jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# j1 U0 }' m7 `( j
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% |( a9 R5 ?$ ]: C( h8 \* k
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 s+ W6 ^7 N! v6 j) T2 c3 j+ X6 }
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 ^* j& V, m# t, Q# J7 N1 u
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at/ N3 ?5 U* }/ T& A- p+ `$ W
historically depressed levels.+ z% ^) C, e5 }6 @0 O
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. Q0 @" H0 i; H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; k) A* C8 G/ t+ ^1 t2 n+ `prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
]6 D# k9 j! o/ e1 Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This5 @2 g* x1 e0 d/ e" V
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ _7 k0 n# p9 N6 ^3 mmonths ahead," added Hogue.0 w, p8 v1 j6 j7 e5 M( X1 h" s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& m# y0 C/ Q) J2 i4 k l
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 @2 S( p- o* e- c/ i3 K) y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. t: t' O1 Q0 B$ t4 y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* ^' i2 K1 v3 Q& d. v# I
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 K. n3 D) m7 t: z r4 [( ncities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
( r1 m& E" |) a! Ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' L9 S" W2 @4 N) E9 l8 P
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' c3 g: r. z) }$ G4 C/ X. l4 ~9 Rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property- B# J% D* b* {4 {7 }
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 O6 D2 H" C& ]4 j: @+ w; p# o- B
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 b% c3 a% Z& {! C
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 H9 V, H! p: ^) @8 E( JFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 Y6 Q/ a1 ^: ]
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& V0 n" S2 I! a* K, y. K' A
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 X+ G0 D: ^, U* F' _( k1 E) c# n0 W* y7 b# h. o! Q( C- Q$ U i
<<$ ]2 L" }8 p6 q* ^6 [
Highlights from across Canada:; s: F# G1 t) f2 ~2 [9 G- C
0 H% }: k0 E& p" j
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
; N3 w; |6 P) H" H/ [7 t intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing5 }# e9 }' S8 u. A. n7 `
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 _) Z2 g1 V* ^; P* p2 G1 j- u ~; s only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# Y" `3 M: S" @9 k& b4 U- Y# A) q6 G
since about the middle of 2007.) n" M: E, y! g4 K0 d3 j3 H
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: ~6 i- R: o1 H2 s% f8 F
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
9 h& N1 j. t( E% l4 ] decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' H2 e+ g( u4 E/ E" S largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' Y* ^+ G6 C* S* u% F poor affordability levels.
$ v6 Y& D( _* V - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 Z3 j$ a- z3 E+ A8 o vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and, s. b, K) C4 J' L* e: n- w
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: E* H8 z6 H. ~' t Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to% R% u9 W8 L6 ?
minimize any downside risks." N& v2 c4 y/ R
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 Q1 G/ K1 g @5 g& x; o6 m# T" \ } conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is. B) c$ s0 y' |$ [$ W3 K6 Q- _
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 u$ }+ O3 K Z( W' i8 h) R: F/ }# i 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ V# `. T/ t; w% e9 v. L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 J( N$ t% K. x: Y* h$ [ B x+ l
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- ?6 w$ E e3 | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 S* N: U9 `6 \/ d4 Q$ u) N- ~; z* M2 }
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 T: v% M6 E( ^9 j& e3 y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# u9 T$ ]$ k9 h7 N- ~ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" u/ m- G7 f1 R7 I" u0 C- s modestly in recent years.
" W3 T, f. h) x( y5 A9 j0 B; Y* [ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 l/ {7 h/ o0 O$ g general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
' A$ k& x/ W% A4 B! { spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward8 E: L, ~6 j% M) u
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability$ E: U* }9 ^; J2 H
following two years of deterioration.& s- ^: G* R- O3 K7 y3 v+ s
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