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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 h& p' G. [ ], A
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the y1 Y3 U" i+ G. R' x. j; Q+ U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* d7 a N0 j2 t5 Rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,% U- |0 ^+ {+ u9 Z2 _4 R. E
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
) J: @& X2 a3 q9 `' _; k D6 y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,". x5 m+ [4 g' }" O) c& t% L2 T
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
) C8 o$ p, L$ [improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 N0 S9 l9 b' A6 t3 y. d! V
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
# j- L8 f# _* A' O# L9 `, `/ ^ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 q6 C1 S2 s9 a O8 Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 I' r1 y! I; ?- Qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
. L- O4 f6 P; b# b4 J1 ~( Lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! _$ h! B( r! w: t8 m The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- @5 z- D& l$ @) T
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a' g, v2 n( a' z) e) v% m2 c; |/ b
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ U5 B* {. U% e4 n, EAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ h( ]$ F8 E, X, @- N1 G
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
9 S0 W" @, y/ ^4 g( n* k2 zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% c. e8 n5 N, D y2 ]) `
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 |; B- V; @$ x7 H0 b
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' Z$ N" x" n+ o, `' n* l# S
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( S* |# \3 e# q- L7 |historically depressed levels.) p% V6 r4 w7 a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& K% W9 R* Y/ U" g. H R& _, G5 Lof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House r' a+ b. Y' h4 F
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
! v A& O% P, d) [6 F# z/ ^hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 a- }- v z S* F% W- d. J; n
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the$ Z9 g. J; F4 d4 j4 l8 M! i
months ahead," added Hogue.
, `, P0 L; s1 j1 h RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 G f" R, \* }1 q8 B$ Fcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
% s3 m3 V3 o0 O2 F v$ D# H42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.9 s8 M! F; P( K; I
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* f" _. a- n/ e7 t0 o) b5 L% @) |( T% L
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ H! y! K" _- Qcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) `" Q1 U- ?" ~2 W
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 }; b# K* t6 E" a+ y6 _/ t/ \$ _
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
) W) Z+ ^2 Z2 V0 t( d; ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property1 H' A* ^8 J& J5 `: f- C
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
- b/ q, x* g' E% ~- mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard3 c& [1 Z6 m0 r3 h3 i; H7 v9 G% f/ W
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
8 P, p4 y7 f U$ j9 U; VFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" C+ a" {/ B- }6 Z+ Y2 [# i& {( V
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
G! K+ S( n$ B" Uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! f' y, J3 S/ I [- O- o
* S( f% k4 I( H; J <<
/ t3 _9 s( L& k7 S Highlights from across Canada:
& |6 r0 o; w7 N# K9 Z" \! Q4 B' X0 }) l5 _' Z( K& S
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
' Z# n: C5 c: b8 t1 B1 I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing. w, g4 C0 c: E/ T9 o
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# i" U1 a2 H9 @8 B" L: d/ G( ~" D; T. v+ U only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track3 b' o# D) u$ V4 u0 u
since about the middle of 2007.
. W" q/ v3 b6 U" p/ c7 o; |, i - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 ~& b1 G: t; ^; } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to( I9 I' n- t& W
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& p5 E, {) k$ I) N! e2 \ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' J8 B5 z) U5 I1 }# r poor affordability levels.
2 |% Y9 ], f& N# f0 o. R - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% V1 G6 d2 M5 g# f( M/ I# Y
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ B V, Q: @7 Q# t3 U" N4 p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" i& a/ @8 p$ B1 G; E0 a Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ ~$ i2 V3 O! E5 N4 D9 Q/ l& G minimize any downside risks.
$ G: R9 L& ~6 D" `1 U' t" R! a$ Y4 W - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market- {2 o* g; {2 K% Q/ y, P
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 N! c7 x s" I; x4 i
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 S' r( ? @& x0 `
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 h- ]3 y) {- g' u9 \/ g
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., W+ Z' M: h6 a
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 A) d" i" ]: i' P& X$ Y0 g
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus: s% W/ e- d* z6 g& Y& C2 P
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up+ M# q; H+ w+ y, {! b
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 h/ A8 }' `) M2 S+ T8 a
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) S; P% S% ^+ k3 a
modestly in recent years.
3 H, ^! |. A p1 G {/ O - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! ~9 E4 _! C; l" U general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- J: d/ U' ^. F' X7 L1 M
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 {# X8 h1 f; T1 D& O6 @) ? price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& l% X2 B' J9 v: P' I following two years of deterioration.7 @% m, p2 w8 ?' n; F1 A
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