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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
9 `% c6 g6 W- o& H; b* ^ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( S4 v5 @" `/ I# g3 I3 F0 [middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 _& _" ] p m
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: b8 Q( Z# U* G0 U' a+ Kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 G5 q8 F/ \1 o1 g
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 I8 f: `# a% h8 P" Tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is1 ]- ?( Q" x3 F
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
6 P u2 M- `9 _; F7 Z* l( Qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."/ f6 T) Z& t% m/ r' u
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 S. P. F1 d n6 l' O5 E7 O
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. I; A- ^2 z9 P" {which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 Z" I9 O( h& Y/ ?9 k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! i1 m. @( h- G1 Z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 p% s$ l! J' e" y! Nproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, A5 Y& V3 z' k3 U: S
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
' H' ^4 l u# \1 cAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 Z1 W# e3 z) l) Hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
* o! h8 [7 y) Fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) w( q0 V8 x" O* P! L According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 D8 W0 E0 }" w# u
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, b: |+ A( R+ r+ U
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ I- ?! X. z9 V/ C8 e o9 u
historically depressed levels.
, s9 ]: B* |4 D; a/ F Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost* L) O; q; ?5 H! ^
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
# J5 A; V& B8 a( _2 Nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 l- T* B) R& F$ e( L3 mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 ]4 L4 j: o4 w* {/ b3 Xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; B5 g9 q% P! R& @% Y
months ahead," added Hogue.! c' ^- V' E: O, \3 J2 W& V9 o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, Y, h# N0 {. O) M
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, ?$ l) S9 `! z$ g4 j0 t
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! V$ ]5 T8 _* s% M2 G+ U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' r! |* Q5 s5 o$ F4 a, i1 Ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, ]5 {: \) k+ G( r4 V
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only6 R9 e+ G+ K7 }! l4 n
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
. P5 h! c% c& F: X6 I The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 q, k, N1 o' u! m. c8 Bbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 \1 @, C0 e7 Q+ l9 ~
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
^% l' g! \6 c5 k g8 lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) J! H; }& J k2 L+ `/ T* pcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: ~+ ]: I9 J/ i( D* i4 w' s2 fFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) r, E/ w# t1 B6 K2 b% C
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" l; A$ p% a* w- R. ?$ g
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- M& Q" M- v3 r ^( m2 m4 K
$ w, y; v3 r* Q( ~/ L4 }0 k" m* X
<<' _ n; g1 ? D2 k
Highlights from across Canada:
* C1 C+ D" _' n* B4 A
9 D; J; T, @2 R' k: B - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 B3 j3 P1 u" z. E1 J3 m intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
5 ^; {: h/ v* E3 n8 D7 Z, i home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 \' n4 M+ N; h only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* ~' L3 O4 E: ~4 P
since about the middle of 2007.) X X/ }) G$ ?/ {
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; e9 {1 O6 w1 z; V! {% U. P1 J: v0 V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ x' h% D& o' K: `6 m8 [$ w decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 s: v& h% h2 s2 u' L1 m
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. t" H$ s/ @& K: k3 O
poor affordability levels.0 _# V/ P) _: K
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% S) s7 P& T! t6 v
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
% Y" b# J8 d! v2 [2 Q2 w prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 i; E/ L( w `8 ^1 v6 D9 m Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
0 N( K& F1 @3 A0 P0 s minimize any downside risks.% Y3 Z& R2 H& m* a4 z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 ]2 d! ?8 t5 M5 P+ @9 ~; m% s
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 u x' ]6 D9 s7 f, K unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 B) C( x, D1 {1 S8 G
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! W) _4 p) q% r; l( \0 D' l being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.- R8 h% {+ e* b. d# h/ W
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 I- V; `+ K' {1 W4 i" } Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus6 g4 t) a# z/ U* L+ ` n" A
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( \/ i: Q+ P' ?& `; ?) I reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be5 ^3 l$ T# g" o4 V& u
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 Y5 g; O% P- W+ [ modestly in recent years.
5 s& T* S- n: _$ a2 V - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* \" H0 s/ s. x general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot# |, m, O) W0 u9 R" P
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( \5 a7 t# T0 J) s/ m$ s price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ D$ X+ S: m* D4 j& {! i2 `/ Q
following two years of deterioration.
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