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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # x- [1 L. ~% b, K3 T; z( d( o; t
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: s2 ?7 x# h& Q5 R
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive+ [8 J" u) I2 a3 Q& Q4 u$ q# ^# H
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 S- O5 f# [# M2 J
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
; H; O, ?+ k' ]+ f h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 M4 r* O( h: x8 `+ g7 nsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! B0 {3 X/ C$ f3 K4 `
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* K6 n' e- j) I% f" rmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": M- f% v0 h V) \! q" N
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& K; y2 b- [- o8 w7 ]worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- ~ ]* N5 O* o- w: \/ M* t2 D# vwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
/ ^/ e, @ ~, msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 k/ ?3 E) a% d2 ?0 J& Y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! { s6 Y% V, F( H4 i* Q& yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ O/ a/ D/ O. X% x9 B/ C9 A1 w- W3 Qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ j: X3 Z' ]2 {" u, n1 M1 o* d
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# e* e: F' m' Q9 Vstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
' ?) U2 b- g/ {# ]the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% M' {/ W2 ]6 r0 D0 C6 y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 f3 O. v2 ?/ p3 w% x3 N
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in7 m- V! F2 E0 L- u% A
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" o/ V% ~- U- G, Y& v, b
historically depressed levels.3 B( r# A* H# `3 ~0 Q3 O
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( e" y( i* G( Q2 Uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 z/ o/ {$ X$ g% H3 G0 Cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# |% K; o* Y" A* \, d4 E. d
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This Z' l9 s7 X. v/ f2 O! D
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* e" {% s+ R0 |6 L7 M! rmonths ahead," added Hogue.* L1 F3 {# r9 o5 D8 h
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' {. b. G4 _0 T2 Ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 x/ o! ? D2 l6 {42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* h$ R0 F% k/ @" x
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& e2 r( o5 F7 F+ R" p$ d! @a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' j1 X6 o* o1 Z, H+ M: b
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' W( P+ ?+ p8 I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account./ t" G% o# S6 D$ Y8 T! Q- Z
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# T2 [. c' h6 }5 d. |
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 y6 }* ~% e- o. e+ j" @7 L' Fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 C) V7 F! X8 \3 x' x7 eincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard' @' V& S% Y6 s7 N: z, c
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* g5 i; j+ T) A* Z" K G$ \For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership0 C* S' T2 u" z9 [& h* p
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( O( o1 Y' _0 U% Oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
% ?, m' g) `. K- B8 E- |' O8 |* e0 t+ B% r; @; f
<<
9 Y, d0 G/ Q+ x2 _ Highlights from across Canada:3 ^ d" Z7 m) n6 w/ H
, G0 M- _" E1 F
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has# O8 C2 k$ h/ l, I- Q [! g
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
N# Y; W( h/ y* W5 } home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 |! ]% \# s9 X& q' t& b only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track) O9 H5 Y+ l8 k3 z" D- A$ e
since about the middle of 2007.! m- z' f. i# {0 ]
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
/ Y# j, y# ~* [: e* X frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
3 E1 K9 B- c# o9 t. M- G! _: T decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, l8 F6 Z: N6 |* z/ A' O largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 Q7 [2 c% Y6 c3 T5 f! _ poor affordability levels.
: A' v4 {! n7 b' K5 f. g - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
3 h6 n7 L7 B& n1 m vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ ?1 U1 Q9 m% f" k- V; P+ k
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 c3 |) a( |0 j( m+ s9 ] Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
W4 |$ Y4 U3 K2 z5 F$ |9 O minimize any downside risks.2 {2 V. o8 d8 t% \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
; Z. }$ Y* \( b& ^4 |1 ] conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
- Z& g$ @$ b' Q) r8 x- V) N unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' B2 e7 q/ y' T" w/ S$ I/ o: ]
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) M: ^0 d) }* j! V
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ v6 S3 [8 K F3 ~ j2 {
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& r7 p1 R8 C4 g6 ~- Q7 A& ^$ X Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 a. U+ W0 O7 [( W6 T0 k& H
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 ^5 i ]1 h6 j* Z! N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; F% _1 R5 N g- k. x% D
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only {8 M& m+ R' P5 Z; E
modestly in recent years.
3 ~+ l0 w5 g& d; [! C Y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 P) H4 X }+ L% e9 A, k
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. q& S6 L/ j1 ?' q# u* C spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
, V: c! f; E; V) v4 s [ u1 Q price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) ]; W8 ~) ^0 w9 c7 A following two years of deterioration.
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