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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 4 ~3 G4 L' w6 ?$ }! B
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the7 c4 d' w! C4 I1 u, r$ U. O
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# J( B/ i9 w6 V4 V( C( S
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
# k: D$ p% z! K# }0 g( h9 j; C- M# maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.$ T' A _: i1 \+ {; H
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 i) S# K7 A! T( s' }) K) g, Rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ n6 |/ V$ F8 e8 P/ Z( T7 U6 [
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; X2 m) A/ v9 Z5 f0 wmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
h% j% ~1 H5 l+ D" v RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: T) I8 d( X) A3 T1 e7 Z' } }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" K4 G: n5 _2 {7 \/ {which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: F1 B5 X2 z7 L3 A! ^9 \) Msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: o$ H& r* g. w b# J( ~. ]; B9 Q The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
6 J5 F/ P* M! T2 v' Iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
7 {5 m: ]9 |) `/ S1 f' thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
/ F3 k2 ]9 L* D0 ?! n% C2 f3 OAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* v" s8 R# M! v- E9 s% V7 hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ W/ N/ T0 ?. Q2 \8 |8 ^" T$ f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ ^* y4 i3 r- w. H
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets" i y, w7 B& g( k0 r6 R/ a$ C9 E6 }2 F
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; e0 _1 Z7 s. T! V. e- b" E
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at: b) i% ~0 W; t: N
historically depressed levels.
* j" V7 S' C( n7 j5 i0 F8 \ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost5 f, ^9 s/ U- p- V* N7 Z6 S2 Q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* z; V+ q# e! n
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
& u" q/ O* Q; jhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This' W: Y* Y5 f$ y' Y" \
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 Z! e0 F2 v. g* f5 p' d% `& N; K5 xmonths ahead," added Hogue.9 {- Q, J' j7 t' N% p
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest" x0 t% t6 e O
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary+ h i, |+ `# Z6 E# Y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.! Y3 _3 C) h5 [5 D5 V1 \, L
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. j0 _2 j0 J1 E" s+ z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 }" t: j& z- O. P" Z# Y( A- `cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; d O" _- K5 E' Gtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) C1 U6 n1 f: ~8 f& F& h5 G The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is+ T7 }# f# o6 n8 Y( \6 Z4 [
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ ] @0 N+ I& E/ o) J
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ d8 M \. r1 _4 }) B7 {
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 H. o5 l, b+ a* ~condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! b" y. d- U) @8 t5 T( n9 Z* h" ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 i1 x8 t: f+ C3 N. j b
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 C- O9 j0 L; V: S& C7 L) x
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 X" \. t9 B; r) u, l% ^9 n- o
) f7 |+ ~" F: i e! p/ B2 t; u <<. t/ y: V% |1 }0 E' k5 [
Highlights from across Canada: t, d# M# [0 {* w
. e0 y) O* A! V& ]. P - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) Y- [( i2 P( a6 ]: J( f! D. G) S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- S6 N' I& t0 e home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& W+ W. {# W$ f; M O
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- Z# O# G( R: ?' {, x2 i& U
since about the middle of 2007.& E1 S( @! c' F" D: P; M5 w
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
/ {' p9 z: ^3 h% h# B frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
7 r2 k* {: H" Y; y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ ?6 g; C. Q! H. `# ]& e) n* V
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 ]% l& B C% a0 ?/ y; r0 s7 D/ J poor affordability levels.0 a. t4 f/ a4 o2 W0 E( O) D9 `
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ z, x! l7 V5 X8 _1 S
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 l; A& n' ?, V$ q- u6 T/ E
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 [/ ]! c3 D' A( W- H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. N1 @1 G& I! ?7 `$ d# |
minimize any downside risks.
' A f) S- z+ X2 ^# x - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 S/ F6 [! H) ~6 ~4 i) c4 [
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 ?- c% R" c2 i! Y/ k% d' R' t8 b unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early8 p% w! A l% `+ H
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. \1 O( Q' e( K* X' u8 k1 q
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." R) Y$ E' p6 @; v. s g
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% z. l3 ~4 |1 B. H! U; ^ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! ^6 i/ Q0 U, w: Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 n, o9 O k0 v: P9 L
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# J, |4 ]" ~+ C' ~) C# M- j' G+ S ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! M; F6 o( o0 g* J. x9 c modestly in recent years.5 |6 n# f# d6 ^ Q5 R
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
. ~; ?( X9 E4 J general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ k5 d( P' f9 `, ~ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ I$ F2 n+ m( ~2 X' L' [1 l price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability% z& V* J$ [: a7 l
following two years of deterioration.
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