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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 8 A, a3 I& I! P0 p: y# K3 H8 s
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, G! L8 ~/ _4 L6 n
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 n8 H6 d/ ~8 W8 v7 d2 {! h9 tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: m, O+ F5 e- c; Y5 ?/ B0 h) v
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 n$ i: k5 c- F+ n! F* z! a. q, ?
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! Y/ y& {; H5 V9 vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) ~: h: S# V1 h4 j) V2 y7 P! N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- l6 V. X& X4 h% M
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
2 y4 u$ K9 e5 q }5 ~ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is) P2 y, P- u5 c
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
. o3 @" T* ^% z4 }3 ^5 s( ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
8 m2 |1 N0 J' F% Y, h' `! p! E& K2 ksustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 S1 ?- ~/ {( M0 k5 a. a
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) d0 V3 N) `) D5 G0 N7 J9 R
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a% J0 a) b8 \8 l0 e. o
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; N7 i6 d) A5 c6 B+ R( U% h& u
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the3 K% t( Q }8 j3 r1 x7 s7 h- z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! I# l2 N4 s9 h/ n6 K0 ^% r4 {9 Dthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% w5 _" g; E- _% _1 o
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ u4 h, ?3 K/ K3 {5 z" Imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 o$ ?- g) j/ c8 @& D# bthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at+ q, ^1 f' K; |2 K3 _2 V4 ~$ O
historically depressed levels.. n! w7 l$ B u2 x \& `
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
# `% V2 T6 D9 z/ J1 G/ Oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ R. `: m/ g0 d5 Tprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
1 p3 {, }2 P+ X8 ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 r7 [9 X( E% ~+ c) d D- W- U$ H2 Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( ?! c5 Y6 v5 H5 v, G+ o' U+ u2 U" o
months ahead," added Hogue.& H6 n- @( ~1 y$ }
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% S) ~8 U/ _+ @3 }
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! z" t4 v1 K6 W3 Y& |42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! d4 W; I3 {( p$ V4 F2 w The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for ]0 P3 @% B" M c( X& q; H; u4 V
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 V A* E# A8 L1 V1 {: ]' L. V
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
% u% {: i# A1 U3 L. ^. }takes mortgage payments relative to income into account. W1 W) W" K$ ~' G
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 {3 l5 F- v; G1 h) ~
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 i# c+ k2 t+ H
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented- u: ?0 ? L3 p
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& j5 `: O# t {, D& Z5 c
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." B( f& Z5 A4 C. Y4 O8 y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( j h( Z) Q- o' L% h0 _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 S6 ?" ~: @% u" I( J9 v
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. Q" ^* q# Y! M! Q
1 f6 A0 Q9 j+ ^4 r. x; F2 L4 {' F
<<# E4 [6 n3 a- z
Highlights from across Canada:: y1 C1 K5 t4 Q; c4 Q1 C
3 b( l- T$ g- U4 y% ?' {3 Q: x C6 r
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has j; h* n5 e8 t5 d
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 z/ C8 J/ l8 u; [) r2 ~
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 s4 u; A r2 R" w& B2 N
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* E2 Q5 G$ b- ^6 z
since about the middle of 2007.
% q) S" R% K0 @% K* Z- ` - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, m2 s4 a2 q5 L4 ^! a+ Y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to" k1 E5 |! d5 A6 V; C
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 v5 q1 |$ I% Y. i0 L0 T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
2 N# G. B3 t e$ Z% l7 S6 l) _+ H poor affordability levels., b( X' ?# C t; \* x" T
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 x; K7 M" b3 K: Y
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* J7 _1 v) e% X: T' N$ `# @7 P8 ?
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
6 H7 d4 x1 |7 U) O, @% e Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to! {( y* \$ c& B' y
minimize any downside risks.
Q, }+ a+ Q' y - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
* s8 y! ^5 i! I+ h conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 D8 n$ ~; w: J- c5 W3 P+ u- B
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 t" u4 U1 j1 Q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly% N; ?$ Z0 s" Q p% \, G. t
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.# _* p" e; C: V4 ?
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in) \) L5 p0 p6 t* e7 q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% a- h5 o+ r! o6 h! u7 ^; g far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
8 y' ]7 u+ C( h4 J2 q5 R1 B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* T! g/ C$ s4 l+ ^ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" E* D( ^1 ]2 {% J- i( |* \! ? modestly in recent years.
; ]- r- _( c! [5 ?( B - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
* s- L/ U) n6 c: H0 z6 U4 l general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ \& k- L' ?( @ o6 v2 r spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 e; B: A4 ~! J; ^* z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- Z% \' X( H* A2 j
following two years of deterioration. b1 G$ e, U- h
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