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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( V+ f$ F" L" v; ]
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the+ m5 v; Q6 y) m( i8 y0 d
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
M; H; y3 \/ x1 [, Z9 `gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 `" f0 w! ]5 x0 c" p1 L( ^8 e" qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: N- G3 N+ |& P! W& l. i "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"9 v& z1 U6 d2 f0 G+ e, q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
7 C# R- B: X0 F3 `! Uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" T% U& r# F1 P% \2 d+ {measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
" B' J8 [( n5 `$ G, ]" E" I RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* ]7 W( }: u2 }! vworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
' m$ l3 L9 a) k F6 l a: qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
7 L+ s. @9 ?4 G: H1 Vsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
7 @/ z# E- a% x- K( n3 S% Q The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ n( e/ ^; r: aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ D3 M/ {+ G2 j4 l6 U! h* n6 ]
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" E* d% Z2 }- q J% BAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
2 U8 N: t% e3 s- M9 _" j. qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 {7 o% I1 q* l2 G; w' Q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& w, h( x+ u* Y- U8 v
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
4 M: z% K- y K, n: @ Z( Rmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 v0 v0 y3 ]4 M: F0 }the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at" Z; V1 o9 P8 b# I5 [: f
historically depressed levels.
: j& Y9 Q2 u& ^" B+ h. E+ O% x Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost Z: p# I8 C4 l- G( X+ w
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; H7 t8 p9 \/ y$ }4 t0 F5 Wprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the' A$ j7 ?' ?; p, ~, ~
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
( ?( m7 U2 H! L( j- Benormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- y' r3 {! G5 @, ] E, w, S0 E
months ahead," added Hogue.: [# |9 a- ?: M. P. R. U
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ u( O0 |8 D4 h$ |- t# E: B: L( mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
" O; f* \9 |7 G* U3 N$ x# {1 X- x+ D42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! w' t* H# ~# ^1 R The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( o, U3 J" O4 O' W/ y, ?/ i
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 G6 M% s0 K8 A e' V, r! I6 l* c% U: `
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only5 r/ |& @/ I6 u6 u( M" N2 s: G
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 q9 L$ c( B- e1 e+ r/ y& Z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
, l' ~8 [1 H/ y9 G# U, v- A/ L1 wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 G: h" N# P! dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* p! F7 L, U1 [% p* H& A( ^
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 g5 B- T6 V7 n1 scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., C. B- i1 f# r+ H& ^% c
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
0 P+ `$ e7 i# h1 w# e; w; Bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 K6 v3 _* b" |/ s6 gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- H" n+ n' ?6 w# d
8 @7 y9 E: p4 V+ ~ w! m" H <<9 k8 L( B8 z+ _5 T( t
Highlights from across Canada:
$ E0 z' k9 Z3 v: U9 K2 k, a' N& e1 X e, J0 v& e
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has( k5 [* M2 A2 i% {- E4 { c# B
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: r: |" Y* E9 D5 J& ~
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
; T. T# h0 j5 e$ [6 y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 K$ y% N# q/ P$ ?6 s since about the middle of 2007.
2 D6 ?+ ^4 t8 W* T! E - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; T6 d; [- Z n8 x) l
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; o( b9 l2 w, q/ h8 N: J' c2 O decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still+ s8 n# c- f) k6 I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 Y* Z/ k# p# o! W
poor affordability levels.
; l, x/ w3 H4 a0 Y' P" C - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& L" L1 A, X" l3 S1 D vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( S% X a! ]. g e! k% S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.. W: I7 I! r- W: ^
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to9 L7 [, ~, a' {& l' n
minimize any downside risks.
% l' ?5 D3 }* h/ f5 z, u - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market5 [& H+ x+ L# u
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& \2 R7 @. I" ? w, K* m% g
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& G- h' `: a6 Z2 L* m, c$ k" ~ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& H4 u8 D! S2 I; [7 y, z: \4 d
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ S( Y: A8 v, B. ~ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) T/ C/ ~% }" m# g Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& T Q. H! k7 B9 R
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, M( W2 i \. L" e9 t3 s* i
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
, b( z* r& B# `: }' @2 O ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
P' y' B" ~+ J v# l* X modestly in recent years./ V! E& i" l7 B: k1 p& T
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
h* a5 ~6 `$ B- Z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
* P6 @9 Q$ t1 {1 V# V" y* c* D spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: W* D3 L) X8 d+ t
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. _/ X, U2 ?, O; @, X; z following two years of deterioration.! p! P- H3 L& [4 \: K- h) ]% t- W
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