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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
6 j9 m( k" A) E% O; X TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 e% a0 K3 M/ O$ T
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- d2 X8 `8 i3 S0 l! igains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) p9 P% ?7 E0 P# c5 ^6 {/ a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( {* o3 {/ ^8 _# Q2 d5 @$ I- U
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! c7 B' @+ Z. @1 Hsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 f2 ]& j# H5 [+ Kimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
) O, e9 C; }7 L9 cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 W7 f& q+ I. n q1 s* c: Y/ _% {; x RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( Q2 c. q* g- L- mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 V9 |2 j& Y6 ^0 |. s
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- k% F' J0 i4 p
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ N+ F$ i$ R% V" B The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" Y+ I( n$ f* b. V
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
3 V9 D& {3 W7 ghome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) L$ A* J& M& G N9 n
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ R' S+ X/ W$ |8 y" I$ U" \& A2 O
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ e2 J1 c. ~% Ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. v8 X# _# s* F" @7 V3 ~1 i0 [ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ h P* v3 |( r& Y* _% f4 [may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
# X) S/ L" A1 d: V/ b, l/ J; E7 ~8 pthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% S ~. z- e6 `- K' P
historically depressed levels." r, L0 H3 C! I) e9 R* i
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. J3 H R1 W+ F8 ~. y* H9 h
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 I2 Q9 E- W3 w- ^8 [; d
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
; D" j' _. l8 \0 I0 N& bhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
' B7 u4 I) e3 m X$ B" venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" z$ q& s1 c8 v7 K$ R' |' a
months ahead," added Hogue.6 s. i# e1 t- N3 r1 C" ?. s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
{ Y# n# }) m# k/ }3 u4 Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( `- l5 u- @5 k# b4 v) l0 D
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: ~( H. ]( k; e l7 j
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
" Z/ _# U, |5 ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( t( y4 L. t; k4 R+ V5 hcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only2 [) g2 B5 i9 O) D$ b1 ~
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
% k- x% Y0 u- E& U- ~2 y* C# ] The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" X' w* C4 i. X4 R. a6 X
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) \2 h! D2 _3 H# B* j
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented& y: o. `# B- X# U
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
% D( X7 p3 G1 c7 k% ^. |condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" H! o6 ]3 N6 tFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 N6 _! {- b1 Ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 z5 V! _6 [" I5 G& e% m* Tper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' K5 n# R" E* F. T" i
' c6 Q% o! e! Q; [- [
<<6 p- _9 a0 n2 H4 s& P3 [9 [/ i
Highlights from across Canada:
5 I r$ i* I, l' V7 o, f2 C' k) i
: d* W- m; ]- |/ c9 o8 e0 k/ r2 H - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
' f5 F0 r. n( T4 E: m intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
" P, c: v! m J! F5 ~ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! `8 o0 `8 u3 I0 o0 y) t
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, ~# { `. t, m4 D2 p' ~
since about the middle of 2007.
% G3 r8 w; P ^7 T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
9 a$ R3 d1 a% h; j0 s5 Q frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
# J# v1 a. P2 ]" T decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) V9 c) G! [/ E( |6 T& s0 H largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 r# O( V! D8 G9 M5 z# f7 [
poor affordability levels.( U* i4 v' K2 ]& g# t
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ F" o, t" `" Z7 e) `0 u0 d' ?1 K8 S vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 F/ D8 h' [6 P; e0 D prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 P9 ?4 m. B! E& Y& \ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: B @1 l( \' f- [ minimize any downside risks.
' I/ i# M# D, L; j - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% E' L9 f: s f: l F( Q1 O1 O, D
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is, x7 \! Q1 p# I0 ~
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& W0 A6 C" P O0 p, }& _$ _ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; |3 A3 ?# b. |' q, B6 }4 G being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* o5 u' o" L) \6 y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in& v$ e6 t9 ^3 a! R9 f8 z, N! W/ ^
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 o# c. b# n" U [" {- w9 W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' k; i( Q. q1 I$ b' | reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
2 s7 {9 E2 S0 k' Z! g ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; t* E/ t2 C% ~* P modestly in recent years.
. W' m9 F& J) Y: y9 R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the: |5 U$ z1 a- d) l* u7 E2 e
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ J) r' H7 \2 m+ T6 ^
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& D7 l- p+ }+ x" V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 J0 @, Y. `& J$ t
following two years of deterioration.. x* f1 _" S! Y# Z- p% U. N
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