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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ' o& s/ u( }# N" k3 s
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the! l$ ?9 w7 {4 P
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ o" m( q; F& z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
3 J9 f" P' E8 z. }# b. g0 [according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.* B _3 i1 I& |; d* z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% e, H, u8 h7 J/ t+ k1 C# R
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ m- K! r8 U9 W* k4 b" R/ q' b' Oimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
$ ^. b* s4 B) Y8 G7 |' |" L, Y; Imeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 w9 S9 |- q7 M* i RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 E$ x: d$ k# S# c$ k5 z, G3 pworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 m1 Q3 s( o7 V6 x- B
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' P/ d+ e9 U- Z, K' ^sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.2 U3 S4 r1 |% @6 b! e& J* N' s
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: @8 f$ `) v# M8 Y( N/ P2 Y Q
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 Z! R5 z) \3 N- M$ L, B$ C
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
! c- P8 v3 I- i2 N! wAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" r1 |5 |& y# A% \. J$ `
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 B2 S1 t5 l4 A1 g ?
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 A& u( g' ]0 P/ M* h
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ y. v" z! D# q2 O5 X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. R2 L; t# P2 {' M# ]0 E9 Ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 Q% m% ~3 P8 c1 M
historically depressed levels.$ M$ N* e# ?/ |
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost m/ z+ v4 u, ^9 z
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! d7 a1 i( Y# P% z0 W6 ?" I. oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% h( d" ]( {6 {# Z; Thands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 s0 T% H1 C0 E4 B# m2 }1 s lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 b& S! c* ]* ^; M$ O' r: M3 h# ~1 o7 E: rmonths ahead," added Hogue.
! R2 [' @ @, i+ f* y7 [" z RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 m: o1 m6 [% s2 n) M# F
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! Q/ s/ \; F! A! [42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 c: _8 J: v$ P
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# D% k+ U+ }4 L# r4 `
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' f* @$ z/ l: T8 w$ h4 t( K9 M
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 A8 M0 `- d& N0 Y
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.8 E4 w4 y' [" \1 D4 E2 T
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is# Y" ~* q- S/ _# r# g
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) y* K# `" I% A
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
3 E9 J' F+ h2 w3 cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard9 I. U& F3 D. U8 g2 e6 H/ ^
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
# B* I" e- @% HFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: N$ n. d; l/ N M: \
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) |% L+ y2 W& D6 D2 Jper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ B3 o: u/ a7 A* Y: K+ H" Z4 R- @; U1 E6 x2 T
<<# [% C( ?! v$ m2 Z. ?8 X
Highlights from across Canada:+ m* m# ]) x) l" b' B9 p" T/ q. n
! [" u! o& @* b/ B& B - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has9 F) V" N' g v) M4 j& h
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; q4 a3 e/ F' y, c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 Q( g( N# o9 `3 V0 v8 x only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ A' G+ A3 `2 Z8 C7 S5 E, e; B* o
since about the middle of 2007.
?7 r/ N* _* }" [' _& \ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the; o% D! F8 D' O z. y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& }' B* J. G7 R. W, v decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
0 J/ Z$ j! T+ S0 K3 N largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 q0 r4 p" w4 k( J
poor affordability levels.: @' ^: \4 x" f/ q" M
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
; ^( m. k7 `* t, Y. q& H- L vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# Y# ?; x% r" B6 Z) v' I* B1 C
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 v2 y& C( n2 B2 v- L- q Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" k/ R; w7 i9 }/ x1 d* x' l minimize any downside risks.3 @+ V& ]3 P4 l+ }& P3 q; a$ \6 i: l
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 `1 K+ b. [, Z4 V4 x) q conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 R* [# m1 E/ y5 U' H3 N# K7 z
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: D9 E9 t( R/ t o; p# P
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 L1 o% m% _0 h4 L being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 p" M# | U, z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% @1 c1 y$ n1 l" F Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
, u6 b& O0 v, I1 U6 B$ o4 ` far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
/ e" m- K( |' b+ z% L3 Z: N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 Q, R; Y6 ]! x- l8 ]' f/ m+ ~
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, ~- C1 E; t3 m0 Q3 A* | L modestly in recent years.4 R# ?5 e$ x" n# d: p
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ |& L% {/ H# s! q$ q
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
/ A( v Y/ T5 t2 \: J- S& g spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: T! d0 x. n$ c* G+ j' K4 n! w" }
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
5 F1 y2 _7 ?5 n, ~0 V( v following two years of deterioration.0 \) `6 A# w3 S: C* Z
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