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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 9 f/ e, B" B( @' d9 b) S4 ~
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 b Y8 t6 N& P7 z6 p7 Q. W
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& u, a B% z$ ^+ t8 \gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! x t7 H3 q) a/ d* Maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 Z4 `8 y% z7 |0 K+ r' h! J4 `
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ f W W. X3 \ ^
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
3 F0 B) u" t! v( E5 Q4 p$ r. {4 cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( Q1 C0 a# n1 h
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."' q% J+ Q5 H! B' B6 x3 f
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 q% a' S$ y1 t2 \1 t# m. B! W# P
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 ~8 w" q6 m6 h# _3 O) L
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have6 k3 d% }0 x/ Y% |; G- `4 {, d) ~( F
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" {* L4 Y/ m' g, ^0 `* _ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- B$ r+ D7 q8 H6 n: `- ?% E
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 T6 {1 Y' L" \) w* \
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.) ~ N f0 F, Q6 z6 D. P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- O1 ~. h5 v, t+ C6 X; ~2 n/ l
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
; a8 o' E: ^2 c, ?+ A% W: P& { \the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent./ z# t) e) h) ^2 a. H( q
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 [8 {+ Q/ i, O; q! m. T+ E) Lmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
: x, ]( G: Z* w# M% b" Rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* L& F. ]+ `7 ehistorically depressed levels.* I$ m7 ^9 b- j; U8 q, [4 V8 q; i
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. f0 g% `1 }* u) j$ j& ]/ L
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House; t" n) U" ~( n; V
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
8 ]6 i. [# b, H" t- N8 z" Z) nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
i+ f9 i) r3 L4 n2 K* X, Menormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" K$ i& ^$ |& r9 |$ E7 A$ Fmonths ahead," added Hogue.
$ B' ^! r7 t6 E6 D" K RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% x9 k) N, `! A4 v* I6 O
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 t7 |% h% t" G# f) y1 Y3 d42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# j$ o1 q: w+ } The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 M. n3 G4 _! X( R7 x5 K
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: a/ @9 u. u* k# X4 v0 {5 R. fcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 M# B+ R5 h% u1 E, t+ j. Y
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 V5 U1 Y- r1 X0 k8 Q
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ S9 K( E$ }. d: h5 ~" ]6 d1 rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. N: H: B6 o! v& @# G
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 q& B3 k h3 l4 V% `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
! [ p, Z. M' ?2 B; U9 X4 J1 O& l$ [condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. f' e2 B. g' O
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 ~, v+ R3 F+ R: z3 ^( q2 r: }9 d* @
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 P$ i: [, ^5 j7 J& iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 v" p/ h; @0 p
- S* U, h$ t( H8 [2 l, q: Z/ G9 w <<: |0 D! S- C; j1 q& l1 z
Highlights from across Canada:2 ?: |" ^" @6 Q$ \8 X8 k
$ g9 U6 \* B* M$ ^+ \
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has6 q1 e: b: _& Q5 @3 T
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, m. ^% ?! k2 s, {" D9 A8 w
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. m/ ]* o" { `9 E5 \1 p* `* K only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track- Q* S- g: n l' w
since about the middle of 2007.) C0 R. i- V2 s
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ i9 D# w# ?( O9 m3 L frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. T& s1 _) v; ~9 y7 A* o6 A decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 {7 n2 X' @) x largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. p( P _" w' ~0 @' Y0 T
poor affordability levels.
" O9 J, w2 C/ | O1 w7 [ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. W% `. k6 h) d6 t" P: @ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) f: L' t: l8 W* h9 B% O- [# q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 p# S6 Z- \' a+ [; d/ Y' D
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to5 V6 w0 n9 z6 h6 [2 e M
minimize any downside risks.1 L& y# _% z, {
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
0 ?5 u K2 L/ H conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 g' ]: q. W* p! d0 Q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 P! p1 ^" C9 u1 X+ f' R/ J6 W l
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 r7 ]8 g& S; n being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( ^3 k8 Q, ~7 o# u" _6 { - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 C2 L& D4 I6 U, Z
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
( T5 c$ s ~) t4 H, T far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: i+ w* k8 R" i& }- ]6 d
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
0 l/ E: W+ H0 Z ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only8 g# j$ n9 X: X3 u
modestly in recent years.
, [3 U$ c" ]1 y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
. c4 N l6 `) t. S2 D& [4 E general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 i$ [- S' E) o" i+ N
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward; _ w/ j) |( }9 o2 @
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability6 U0 @, p) c% r% A9 w+ G
following two years of deterioration.
( g9 w }0 z9 n1 r! Q# T" H >> |
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