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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
o2 N1 O" l8 q8 ~+ b( r TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
7 v T* S+ B' R. o7 Umiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& |: Z6 {8 P0 J1 g4 y- qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 k2 M1 }8 J! i/ h# ?
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# Z6 s* V/ i) e% `" @
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"$ p2 U" \! m2 R4 Z" a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is2 Q- h7 `0 E' q! e k
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% H" G# e3 W9 W4 g+ I- H: jmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."# ?0 s3 a( Z3 \% P
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
- P! ?4 C; ]3 K" n/ dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% X4 n r8 {6 R* a& f- W
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
# b' S. C& Z9 v* x( bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 ?- ]5 H5 T8 n
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ d( s. v. \# {& z' s( Q) `proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 E6 O ~' K6 [1 _& n4 E& p& J* p
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. s# B( |. J2 o1 l; h! Z3 T
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. }4 A8 x$ T/ e4 F5 V
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ a2 m( B* J- H4 p" @: Q
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 F2 k) j: U/ Q0 s. J- o7 r
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ Y& j" T6 j# y8 }may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( n& H/ D( m& j7 n7 l' p6 H0 f! t
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at c4 S( ^% n/ w2 s V5 i3 h
historically depressed levels.
3 Y8 _9 n8 d: v/ u) \0 f# ` Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ k3 n# W/ D# |8 @' t' D. pof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
Z/ |! t) H7 Y3 @& [2 z: Eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
- z# I4 [7 i+ W* r1 nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This _& ]8 B5 j5 s) z$ c" k
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
1 x0 G" p2 G8 M3 R0 S- U: Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
* c6 L0 L8 N0 t" @7 L+ @ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
4 K2 i! W7 s0 `. acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 f" G/ e" p& |# }4 k2 F( ^
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 ]1 q) s" W5 f/ q1 G) C
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* }) I8 a0 P P2 l! [. p
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% B3 B {: w3 [
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only! `& U/ z, J9 a9 B, I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 E* k! I' l5 Q a' ^& I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 o3 A8 v. `. m, w6 o" t" M: abased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
& }$ r {) q# ~. C- p# lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 Z) L6 u) M1 `2 u h
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. a: @& o* q0 S( J$ d# i: Y
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) B/ V& i3 h1 S* k) C5 N- IFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 N1 p* |9 m, ^
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 A$ \% m& ~/ f0 O
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 c8 J, v/ _4 I
9 k" P5 _5 C- m( E! E
<<2 s" N2 i3 `1 g. ^$ r
Highlights from across Canada:
7 `1 v8 t- J/ |1 K- \4 x$ s* z1 L- [, ?9 j
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 P7 z# e% q. I8 K intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 m& F3 b" ]* v7 }7 [
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound3 w/ X$ Y1 h5 y/ L8 F
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 }) [! d J: W# P- _
since about the middle of 2007.
( z* e# P$ @; X - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
! u( j- `# W; R6 {) b# I+ u3 f frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; l6 T# I- P9 k$ L4 A0 z' `. R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still: U i* q' J8 [2 j
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
7 {) \1 d: R( u" l2 h poor affordability levels.8 R) V" M9 j4 H
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the L7 _- N. q G0 n( j+ i+ ~0 Z
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 ]& ~6 L4 N5 R" J, v) A
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
u8 F) V% h% h- u/ \( J Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- t; H8 R: H. p* {3 A; z) [- h$ g minimize any downside risks.
) q0 p- m- ^$ j- o' F2 b - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( e Q6 ]7 Z( @2 Q9 Z, {" t- g
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
2 m( U! o: K+ d* ?* s8 R unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early# O7 i7 f' r& f* w7 t' q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 O; J- |) n F4 z! F" p6 _& P being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- E1 |! T; q- N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: c8 `8 q. P4 h Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 F( G! M! w8 U far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 F! S6 c# u! f/ j" U0 N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# H, P @0 G4 F ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 I# l" R5 X! t modestly in recent years.2 f* Y# i" u# B; n" c
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 y* {% m; B! _% ]6 b# i' V general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! l, [0 u$ A6 x! D! G spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward- o/ r4 a4 ?+ Y! T% U
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 s3 [* p' _- a2 L, a* I
following two years of deterioration.
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