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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 ?- ]. Q! P9 C& k4 a s) m& a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the2 B6 k) m4 K" H$ b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
. e6 T- g" U9 {, `" y7 sgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ W3 y; |( S. H/ W0 `! B3 Q4 Z1 @' yaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
/ k$ E, y. j2 [: L( L "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
1 R# t* K2 h- Q; `1 `( z9 C) Ssaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. N8 K; m, ^' K5 \. V1 @+ ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) q: z) Q* P2 n' r6 \! n6 ]0 Y
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& H/ z! l" w; ? w# W" x0 w
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* Q1 b' ]! r' P% C4 G" ~1 u( N
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
& S! V* ]9 K- [) w$ kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ b, B: f1 y' k: |0 t0 n
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.+ U9 r K0 e& }8 ^, s, s4 [& X
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 ~2 B+ u4 x; A/ S; W- w; Oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: N% w1 D, D2 F- o7 Y7 ~* r& F
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
- n! H# ]4 c& ]- A5 PAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, }7 S: q1 b7 G" C* ~* M4 Ostandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and) A/ g( F, B" E
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 V$ t% s' {$ ], E According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 {5 u& O$ y6 Y' N. f
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
9 u8 L" c8 F# d1 t! sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 ~2 O6 l1 E. \; v
historically depressed levels.
9 y% E. \: r) l$ ?- @ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost' o0 i- ?. D+ z+ ?
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 d5 x4 [# b+ a$ n4 F- \5 s( o
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% I0 v7 Z: M: w) Q+ T
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
# T; u1 Q3 _% v" ~# E" [enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, P K+ P+ t, @2 b
months ahead," added Hogue.' A! O$ N* ?- x8 v: }
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! N6 d3 t; X1 Y* Z+ V( Q# K
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
\ m6 o$ u& }! j/ _9 V42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. x3 d* u; B" T, k$ P
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. N# b N. R# y6 M9 R/ j# L6 i
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& H/ D, P! o2 u- o. acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' T( P* @/ ]2 o, c- xtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& ~; ^5 V T: o) |
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% b& b6 S, q0 V$ F( C7 h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) \3 Y8 V3 v3 ^
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 S" E# o& [1 _& v) M
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 E) P. ^2 T% I+ N8 u& P" Q, Z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., u$ [. g" }* {, P% z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
+ d; n; F% N- q' v6 W qcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 A, J4 [( l8 t: m" E7 |per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.9 n. e2 P6 C! S$ N& W) u# h. V& O
0 k5 n9 ^5 h5 f/ ]; s& v# G <<) T% |2 L- T5 f, i, [4 |6 i0 Y
Highlights from across Canada:
& w2 q2 r! L& U9 m( o9 T5 B3 n& F+ X& s" k5 S+ j
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
g% y1 p0 M1 U; N0 M$ _; f. {1 K0 U intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ Q9 O/ m" l* x4 Y
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
6 g1 _/ n/ |0 j( b; @: @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: n) f! ~( c4 Z0 j) j) u' G
since about the middle of 2007.1 \$ g( ^7 P/ g2 L4 s" n5 u/ T3 W1 U! A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 [9 q, m% Z9 j$ t9 t h' W
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- P7 {% K# H# `
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* t( |0 L0 \" j5 W1 {
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& x' C. t7 ]1 g6 w poor affordability levels.
! F5 _" W# n7 ~" H: Y/ c+ s( n - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 ^6 \( j& q* v3 R$ o vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; W5 g- }' S; F2 D4 H3 h
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: }) y% L8 ^5 _* @1 }4 r( {, f
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ |. J% q) R7 _/ f p: K
minimize any downside risks.
& l- m. B6 @$ {6 p7 K2 D - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ [5 o! A2 W* u5 U4 y+ v conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 B% C3 x" U" v" H# ^
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 Y C) Z* S# |* S$ K4 O 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly1 U! L+ r' H( p6 M0 i3 U
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 i% W6 Q4 U8 d! V; n
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# w: l/ ]+ x& n( Y4 m
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus8 W8 u# n7 `( e) J
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' H1 _( a' u2 {, K# t( N
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 g. O2 g! J1 ^! G, r, p& [0 F ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( h/ N( p$ Q" y; ?4 G
modestly in recent years.
, }, i& K( z2 v' Q" }& y$ N - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% X. w% q) L9 Q% H/ u2 y0 z5 z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& Q2 _ Y; `+ \; E spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% ^& `. v! i- U" S5 J3 @- t4 r
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 d4 P- ` y6 x( K0 Q" Z
following two years of deterioration.
* L$ m3 R" @1 A+ u+ j; M& H >> |
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