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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# O9 j& p; G; ^; z6 ?5 u TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: A& y" ~% C+ M) V' o' \. Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' s I Q1 U+ I, z% ]; p+ sgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, S& d6 n; v5 T- i" a2 R3 ]
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) A6 Q; N4 @7 N2 X
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 l+ Z0 E* A6 y! s5 v0 l5 T! y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
* D+ _' d9 N9 K9 r% k3 V( Jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability1 r( U+ E* e! F! x4 T6 q5 Q6 T
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."& ^' S# G# A, G& V7 x6 K- b
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
+ {# {4 H+ r9 y; ]worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: @- m# g% Z' `) L8 fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have+ C7 U+ G* P, G$ L
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.$ x0 i# W$ G* F# z( e% @0 t ?# {
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- N$ M4 t; a4 r% {6 C8 r
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, U | H* M' d+ d, h1 l9 H. ^
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% A* j* ], ?4 \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 F) }5 y; [2 t1 h7 q: f* I/ f. I
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
* Z, L% p, ^! \; W1 mthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.' l% s% x; F6 C) p9 F# Y% m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ T0 a! q* N8 g9 [* P3 x* d
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 B( _, O0 Q% g8 {& r% Y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# D3 Z! Y- d5 U- i( vhistorically depressed levels.2 ~% v% s" [8 y- w! e
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 W! d u; p0 b4 ]! }( E+ e
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
) G" p% b8 `2 m$ S% ]1 X7 K6 Lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the l- Q. p+ e% E+ m
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ ^1 A6 L9 P. @# s
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 F$ Y. Y, K1 m0 d& F8 E
months ahead," added Hogue.+ L/ N6 b# D U9 p$ e1 I
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest u3 k3 ~$ n0 [, o. q6 G
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 k7 }) O$ z* ^9 o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; U# _( S" z4 r# l4 D0 r
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
1 P3 [$ w5 R; a3 C1 R+ T& h* ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these: b' n3 N) Q2 b; K8 p
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only1 d+ \( c) c8 n: Y
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., l- C+ x0 y! w! w
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 x# p+ L$ _* k' S. B ^
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
% y- n7 S/ O6 T8 Fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented C" I- b6 ?* `9 Y1 ?0 U! `
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard# [' q$ ?' O) w9 b
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.1 o0 x0 I% p- [3 y+ r! o g
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership P+ l0 @& R$ U% I
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# L) e( j$ N* n/ I& W( Yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% K, m1 T% E: {, x
1 t$ _' N7 Z1 z9 a: W( M
<<- Y; b+ s7 B0 R6 D) j+ }5 C% _
Highlights from across Canada:7 C& K. Y4 y+ q, G9 f
6 D5 ~! A- W7 r; I' h
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
0 L8 V* n5 y: j: r8 u. j intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; Q, q/ ]+ B$ w/ Z' R home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; k. k8 h! l/ W5 O0 m
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# r7 j9 a! q6 R! u: l" P% j" T since about the middle of 2007.8 Y4 ?9 v) W" o/ O1 A
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
( w1 I9 z' J0 p& H8 D9 L( P: h5 M1 A$ b3 W frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 w1 x6 e6 F; g. {- U# D
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
( U% Y4 ]' o4 ^, e largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely' ~, w- {$ Z( q$ n# h7 D/ ~
poor affordability levels.
7 t! V' ]0 R! F F+ K& { - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! K3 G" s1 j9 C! b# F( x9 Y4 b @
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and/ Q8 ]8 U, t0 w+ p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly./ C8 ]. p, E: L6 J0 J' S9 D2 c
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 j* U' S) ]) R/ j: I2 H
minimize any downside risks.
$ \; P6 P0 W# Y j8 v X - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
O5 _" V6 p* C+ [& c1 b conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ Q2 d4 Y# f5 V6 n
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( G. e ^, H% `, I+ I
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly _; z/ e2 v% g' z8 X1 a
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' j6 x0 p* _4 J$ G+ \, d3 q/ d# _ - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 C8 o9 Z2 k* R6 a% A Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% A" u* B9 J& G8 F9 ~
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up- c _7 o. X' d% F# M
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
0 ^1 T$ K4 f/ z; i% o; F1 L ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 R I0 X* P7 @) n* ?# a modestly in recent years.
0 u6 }$ l) i; a2 a" e9 `' ]) F) U! A& h - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( b. ^) b4 { q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! q; s% D% i+ t2 ^5 P
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# Q1 o" Z1 A. Y2 D
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ Y5 V- d: i1 C9 q9 B( ?% ]2 i7 t; X3 [ following two years of deterioration.
/ H! x& k) N: J/ n) W. N; v >> |
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