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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " d" @- x( A9 W4 y/ d6 W
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the' X# o; A6 `" h: e, H9 X
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ t) |* x0 X) t0 Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,; r" s2 a3 \& Y8 h/ [2 @0 l! v1 k
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# I6 O2 ?# e3 o- G9 x# L$ _ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"' D, ^( I. v5 f7 V( i$ T% f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! j/ \6 T! q- n. d$ e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 i; S) J+ q+ H" m, t3 x" v; Omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ T1 \/ V& e* V+ n; a
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. J3 U9 r7 x6 K% G$ d/ t
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
% s: B& o0 [. G! ^- j* kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( @6 m9 N$ o b
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 Z6 [7 L5 r6 C# v, W4 r! }' D y
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% q# p5 |2 U# \' t
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 O7 y. k9 F& a! S8 t! `home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 n% w+ Z5 ~! |/ @
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the- j% Z# a8 F( H- W$ @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& p. L; ?8 a- A7 [3 r* ~the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.! @; t6 _) x" I
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: t8 ]# T# {9 Z" a
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) G+ |3 d+ Q# ` ?' Z2 athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. {9 ~6 r5 E8 {0 O- Chistorically depressed levels.
T- S2 E; t6 d( J4 n- N( R Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 z% o0 R5 |/ Mof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 Q. S* J1 U# T1 f' H. E) R
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" y2 t1 G) K( D8 H! _$ J, Zhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! H3 E9 _3 k: Renormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 k4 M7 B& o& q
months ahead," added Hogue.
$ m6 U5 z# i, D/ e RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest1 ?$ t \0 l1 x! j* E
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' m7 i* H& t/ N8 d
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.9 k5 P: L' [: m% ~) x2 ?0 p! }3 V3 b
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for3 t2 M& [ o& L. S# t! l( _ @4 N* w
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 i5 A K" ~/ `# Jcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
. x% V2 {4 v( w' Ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.4 t4 s# W5 T5 A$ [* ~$ N
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' A0 O. ^+ C2 @- _" Ybased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' M; c: `9 A" t* o8 R8 i% o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
- q; j% i+ b7 a) \including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
{1 h8 i8 _/ Z2 j& y. Xcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
$ D* i2 N. T5 ^ @( ^' O5 WFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership9 d% H) ^0 `# z6 | I; T0 q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 502 v) J2 B6 H, U8 F" o2 T
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' p6 |! N d' o+ D' e3 F+ g- j0 Y, p& h. e7 @& L" t
<<
; P9 H# ]5 l6 ?- u; p" p Highlights from across Canada:' b) g5 W1 k" `# d
0 ^6 J, S8 }+ I8 {2 [& ~% D* j: U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 f$ W0 D" d: a( I) @ E$ S intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 ]+ Z2 J; N- a3 G8 t, | home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; q2 t1 ^& |/ Y+ p% I4 c
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 n% Y" U! S5 g2 a( A8 O, i
since about the middle of 2007.
: U- n7 ^2 t/ U4 H* T5 C - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the2 o; E4 o1 ~8 @
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 r. {5 ] S3 {- w) m) \; z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& r4 h0 O( ~3 n7 Q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* A+ U- S! W8 }
poor affordability levels.& V: S& ]" `/ [. `* L& q! U5 S
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the1 `8 w3 ]4 j; r' K1 H
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
( p/ X: e5 n* U; B prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 K) p, q* |4 x$ l4 A X
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: u0 j5 V! X! D, l! n
minimize any downside risks.& _ J* v1 @1 E+ y; \7 C
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ d" F/ _; B+ Q5 m5 C conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ A0 d0 \7 o8 z* t+ C& v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 T# z% {1 P, y1 v# X$ M, _. l
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ s( n! V, U- O! D- h, |5 ? being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., f8 r+ H% h: U; k, J! S2 _/ s
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
4 b8 N& I% [4 \3 C9 O3 k& ^ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus( ~6 P3 b9 ?' q3 ^9 U
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, N, {. Q( i! P0 E% B7 ~3 Q4 C1 t$ T reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! B6 c6 u9 n% N; ?5 q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only n: G' s( t2 S" t0 ~/ n0 j4 E
modestly in recent years.
0 H8 H+ O1 S, O( z' Y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# r& I9 v0 C3 Y0 C4 r) H general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
% k, g1 u( {+ [$ a$ `- h) ?# o) e spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: c/ d! L, Z* }# Q# I' `& u
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 p* o0 g2 W% x# h1 m$ k2 [! X following two years of deterioration.
5 f0 S6 }! Q2 C" _% z8 | >> |
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