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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 W# O, `& O, R! y: }' m% ]7 F TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' h& f9 D1 ]2 _middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
8 i" | y* j' ~, w: G$ y& {gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& k, W+ i/ T9 z) K2 Z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
8 |" f+ V% c6 @8 B0 D+ E W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
/ i# x3 A% }) k! q7 w) `: Vsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
: y% j v0 }) Pimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 @: T6 H+ H5 @: z
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." X1 M$ x3 ?* j" w( e
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is# ^2 C0 k+ C* k3 [" F+ u5 v
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: X( i) q& z# p3 E8 s# Ewhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* n/ `6 C9 ]( K! w/ l( t# [. g9 z8 Fsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% a% m8 |$ m% X$ \
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( ~* E/ Q( K9 m8 v( hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
: \0 p1 a L L7 Q$ L' ^% h) |home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& M5 o. s# ]8 @1 v. D
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ o# L. g H, q' _standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and% W5 P9 Z7 ?2 O: [
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.4 O% [$ X5 _ h7 k8 Q/ d0 Y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ i; \3 _, W0 S6 Jmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# t6 q* b. j. ?3 R* X/ O( {$ w! q! Z! ~
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. z6 i. o T2 `historically depressed levels.; R0 y& s! P6 ]( a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( W# L9 U! _& K- t% K/ S( s3 `of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! W9 B7 |1 v, A4 e/ T4 ^, F
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& Q7 }! t# W: O1 ]: W
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 D/ X, P- ]" W; h
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 q2 R" x' z* c! X- tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
1 {+ i0 k- [1 ^8 X6 F RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) h! Y4 o( `6 n8 `( g8 h# {cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% J L" k, B" x, ~; d
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." _/ R. q+ s [& C% M b4 u
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
+ f5 H4 M2 p) X( I9 s( ya broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
& A$ n6 w8 J& j8 h; i- @; icities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* O/ G% n2 f, A1 J. p
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' S) C- a5 t- u4 Z1 f
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& u3 J2 d$ f8 M/ p, I* s# Bbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* f* k3 h6 B, W; G; sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" U0 T) F, `& U P6 `including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ f: j/ g r$ w' f. h; r5 Kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 G* w% @( l+ f6 c6 @0 r7 tFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 y0 J% U, N; p" ?costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) u. g+ I' F9 f; t' ?per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% m: j) [1 a) [& c/ v
' m/ G7 W( F5 C% W <<' o" m. i& [; K* c# J
Highlights from across Canada:
8 c, ~2 ^; u4 c( |+ m, P
% B9 ~- U- _+ K I' } - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( F& }) J, H* B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. N5 v% c% l2 A3 [9 u$ h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- R+ V6 j O( G2 [
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: e0 p4 d, r& V/ T! ]3 Y
since about the middle of 2007.
- q1 m, e6 r/ ~* p( S* M+ o - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
% j; U: _6 \7 n p) q) m1 T1 ~ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" \: [6 ?5 y0 z- t0 w4 R Q decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
; K: p1 |. b& q& K8 s( w largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ `9 J5 p8 `- E poor affordability levels.
' ?5 n0 F2 O U. i& D P - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: y0 V4 m- b' W& Z- t |: E vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# \" {. y5 ^0 i- D2 [0 A/ f9 X prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' l4 T5 Y7 ^" ?; ~ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
4 G5 H: a2 U$ z9 @1 \' a4 N3 X minimize any downside risks.
, _% N" y. M1 {4 D6 B! Z- x0 |+ P) X - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" i- M9 f# W. T) h5 A/ d4 H5 n. v8 g conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* E+ F q# Z: M3 R/ Y, G) @! A unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 i7 p* t) L$ X' u: D3 F 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" I# L) Z7 m5 ~& L8 w8 B4 ] being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% w/ {/ t7 x, u - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
+ z8 h) j7 }+ M- o Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ C) b! U3 m. a7 ~; W4 l
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ i. V* U g9 Z: @+ u+ @, | reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be- E4 v1 R5 C0 Y, g& E% s9 V
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 _! r( z- Z+ m, R
modestly in recent years.
7 n Q w; K, N8 I G m' U - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
( e' r6 i8 T' { general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
7 i3 w! Y/ F0 G1 D9 W& H! | spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# `& h. b# k9 T4 a. z5 h
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
A4 h, @" C6 ]/ x: L+ f( u following two years of deterioration.
7 @: N: }5 Z7 m0 t >> |
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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