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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ p. i! W1 K) w% y. r S1 o0 { TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 y$ y5 d& T) e5 p4 @ u* J5 Q
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive q2 o ?$ M& N; s( n! `$ D
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions," ~) V7 L$ q' k! o/ x& ^) c
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' m# Y; {& [( @9 Q# e, Y2 y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 o# c" e/ r" U5 r, ] Y& ^, l# g0 jsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 X+ U6 ]; ^# [ Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability: I2 A B1 ]) s% a
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
4 j6 c0 h8 g5 V0 p RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 M/ F9 h( r, Gworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- S) @4 `6 r3 l
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ W% x) n E2 J. l5 M+ msustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; l! |" ]) I q' z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the2 |. I6 O% k) I
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a9 J( h8 \+ U, _, V7 I+ j: q
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* Q0 C( _ M+ r0 pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, F/ g4 ~$ D) N# Hstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) _6 J. i5 x$ ?+ _/ qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( M5 N' }5 U& {1 h+ M/ E3 v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 T! @ q5 F6 z3 X
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 K! [0 Y- G- E$ x# [the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 \5 l( g( w* F( d# Qhistorically depressed levels.1 D' S: `6 p' w) m" P% w
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% b: u- @, a2 b: v) J/ Pof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( Y3 u2 `4 Y7 J1 j8 A* {2 Vprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# b8 R' E, N, i* ] U
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This8 c+ {0 w; ~ c
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, t' U/ W1 a! x2 J& f- v* Fmonths ahead," added Hogue.' o7 O! b4 _, f& o& h
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& y2 ^0 B1 p0 Vcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% c$ B: w6 b) L; b. X- D5 k, a
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
}+ Q& J# ^) ~" U The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 {$ g1 A9 H' m4 \8 H. r
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' S# P& {7 l% pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# x) w5 w; H# d h: H
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
G. r1 i& x4 v, w: S; L1 S0 R The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ Q3 _8 H8 V, ?8 z+ i, r5 v0 Sbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 S" @: `2 j0 cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
z9 K5 _7 E$ N( P; T$ U4 w2 ]including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) X/ w+ I# U$ T
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% S) i0 f# h2 ?# ~& B
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership" J4 W0 a7 `- a. S& p% ?3 E; @
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 505 }0 i' m, [) c( f9 ^5 e4 S7 {
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 Q3 [4 k9 ?. ?: @( {- ~6 s7 J( k
- C {% g3 P; S @ <<# Y* i" t) ^9 W1 \4 Z4 k# s
Highlights from across Canada:& [- H' @, s2 v8 P- C
0 c& B4 C$ o) m, ?
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has. Q f0 N8 h, z, e
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
1 T" C1 z3 w) f7 v1 z5 i: f: f home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound @* C% ]# T1 ~7 H- a
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ a" V1 w5 ?# h8 O7 D4 e7 [0 y* U( } since about the middle of 2007.
- y% \; g \. T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
9 n! }5 F/ p3 O* L2 e, L6 | frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
: Z7 F& u0 v. L9 f decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 C. m3 n& Y7 v1 w. j
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely, J- ~3 Z1 [' ^. Q$ T0 j5 a6 V
poor affordability levels.) d+ p3 q) k* K' u
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
# v) F8 L- l/ v& ~2 S8 m7 z6 M& | vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and2 n" n& m* z, w' h/ ^. h% ]: y( G
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& \- Z' l: V0 | Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to. \' o1 N. d3 _( D8 z
minimize any downside risks.
6 X1 k% T3 D( `2 q1 Z: x+ b - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
4 N; x* l c7 ~% n conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' k0 E6 J/ M3 A4 q/ y unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# Y6 V) y3 O; D 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 }* b7 M2 y% `2 N
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 A, ^( U0 e g3 e" H, }1 W
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
( m5 D& I( r& x Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ U& _+ S3 O7 v# p far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up/ V; m% O% ?. p; F! H7 `2 C! d+ a
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
& I$ b0 x! U( `$ a8 e) Q ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
. L. m7 F3 O! ]# V4 P modestly in recent years.+ [4 V: k" P* u- Z0 m: ^4 E- g
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; m( A/ @1 S* w( ^4 L! F general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 ]' x9 U' k% z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# l; L4 |$ a: {! `0 t
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* X1 h* b" ^/ M1 R; Z
following two years of deterioration.( h5 @! z+ V: Z/ f A
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