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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC & v h" c8 k. m: `! z
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the8 }' U$ w, B+ @2 s
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 {, `, g$ n$ p" Q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& O6 X# h% G) x, Uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
& T4 r5 c) k+ E* b' u "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 p4 H( R/ `* H. \
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is) ^1 I9 n- E7 c
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) x5 R* B: F% u8 d& ]0 b
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: Z) u5 X2 ], X2 S2 R7 {% X RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 ~5 B9 R C. J$ h( H* ~0 Hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ u& }/ e2 `0 C$ awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 k/ j7 ` r) ]2 p/ C m
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% \6 x c' p5 ^' v1 v( d
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the/ O& b% ?6 ]/ T6 Z9 G
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 L2 m" m; t2 x* w& M6 X B- ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 Y. s( G$ D6 I: f
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' E, J' v" Z7 L& B9 r
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and% C( n. O8 ?: y. S
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- W4 ]) P8 c2 X9 H: `# Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets+ g) k1 @ V7 I' E" V
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 h; c6 K) }( O; c
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at- q, k; S/ q0 Q
historically depressed levels.7 m8 v* n2 v& S3 p7 g) {5 h
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 B" w5 P/ M1 c6 b0 p8 o: cof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 F0 Z5 x) m( ]- X& {+ _0 H2 M
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 p0 n5 F" m0 P6 K/ ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This v- [, k, J/ C
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: _" M' P! N) x( z$ Wmonths ahead," added Hogue.0 R$ s' B5 O+ s. Y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 W$ {. W- z! Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 c' `7 ~. z" R! C: T0 F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 L2 d8 F6 L. J* a! M The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
2 | I+ Z5 I( K7 o' z+ Ya broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( i0 Y+ ^9 a( j$ }cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, D, i5 c5 Q9 Y2 e) X" ctakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., P9 n. A2 j& I. Z. [! y8 I
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" W* }3 Z3 P' u2 E8 K( X
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: o+ r. {* M( I8 ^) T' ~benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
) |; q$ y- L& N! mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# m' ?& ^% v$ K G# Lcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
! }% u, |3 J/ s# dFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# _, k# O+ g* e1 \ I: J8 p" E
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 [1 }! a3 |0 \! i% o7 @- T- ~per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* _# P( H' x- u* h5 [, g4 p
1 r5 v( e6 L; F2 j" D4 R <<
% C. a& v" r3 V# t& L4 A Highlights from across Canada:
4 u1 r/ o% d8 N7 \" w- N; H4 F) o% t1 l# a! v& G
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! w2 }# C0 K a% e) i- s4 N intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 @' o2 f$ f {$ J
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; l- {8 T2 {0 C. s9 t' X$ @
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 x0 l) V8 ~0 a
since about the middle of 2007.
3 V$ k8 L4 ?" c2 X" S: D8 q, [ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
1 [# W5 C' N3 J/ v) A frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to, |; [2 s- C& g9 B1 S. \
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 Z8 w$ O' N, V& A) I* L largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
2 @ J v0 x0 E& s, _ poor affordability levels.$ Z4 F2 l' j9 [7 z2 p, M- ]
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
' R. g" B' t9 g( [2 g vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 m8 r% |* F5 X/ I* n3 j
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- ^/ {* O6 D9 X3 n# G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 ?9 Q, d7 z6 A6 ?! N minimize any downside risks./ k8 g+ N1 {& ]# O2 z: p8 ~7 c
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: a3 P4 R$ `2 V3 } conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) e1 x- x" ]) X8 z7 X
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( Q: u; L i6 X9 s% M# f
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
6 n" n7 C! }$ r0 N9 z6 j being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% R% F& ~7 q! `7 b
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
0 v& X1 H. x) n8 B Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! L3 {/ F3 U0 n; B" l far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
* ^3 a) _1 G* L7 j reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" D% r# [# O! N7 o ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, g2 i: P8 M. b. ^ modestly in recent years.* e) _& ?0 E1 A) }" p$ K X7 N& w
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the( @) N5 U K! O1 A
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot4 E! R [6 S7 E9 f, p, z
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ m O1 S% M' c/ [0 ?& L- y9 Z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 g/ ~9 j* l+ @5 l: q
following two years of deterioration.
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