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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* y# z J7 L0 G9 E3 n$ T( F TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
+ ] D" Z6 n. l2 s6 r+ _& t4 Zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive3 Y2 s+ E' K% h4 C
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,& A7 p) d5 ]# v# ?( R" O
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
! d) w) T1 Y- L$ s) u8 }1 l "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
# W8 M4 v: T s+ M( Nsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is# X6 ~# Z' z& f ~, h
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 }( }0 E) a9 b% m* d
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 E; `, }; D8 i0 \
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is" D& w' Z5 I6 E' ?) b
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
3 I' u2 V1 b; M( Rwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, F n9 Z( b m+ F" qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
6 _) O" [* o8 V% [0 C8 a x The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" p" E! u4 Q% x8 `2 y; R6 r" k j: u
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
' d) ^- p: f" d" p$ c3 l! Vhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& e0 D4 Y$ [% G5 h+ \ I- `Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ h7 Y$ K6 g3 v: N) p
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' E t/ `1 U* q3 S
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
+ t. F( W* j9 n' f) u9 n6 |& S3 @7 y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 d% k) o9 G5 s8 w9 y9 ]' |
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) }; I6 `# k0 F, j7 K9 c+ y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at5 b9 ?- J& y* }! m' H& u& C, L! \
historically depressed levels.0 l5 N/ u1 t) f4 {2 j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost, K9 ~; ^* R) t+ r" [, \
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 |, p% V" h. e* }9 Z" W- lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
( O7 m. t) A0 v! s6 U' k7 Qhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& U8 h. Y( w5 P: Z& a+ T* y& e+ qenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the; X3 T( r) s& u5 {2 G8 M
months ahead," added Hogue.' M2 x! G( k D3 s8 P
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
x; a- ^* B Rcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; I% U5 t7 F. o* i42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* A5 I0 a; e: p% N/ `9 L" x The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: r1 @0 @; J9 ]a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' d& l" C7 B8 i' r+ H+ r! k. V* t
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
7 _7 r; ?. ?& s4 \4 }/ n7 ]takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 I# @5 C0 O5 V0 z( q5 ` The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ ?0 [$ D( E2 p$ p+ Wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ d" o) s9 N' o# }! Obenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 F! D9 Q2 s; f- n3 [including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard! q4 o! R& \! U
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. ^& W5 E7 D0 q8 ~& @- N
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! O" L3 W2 Q+ G: s6 T8 q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 Z7 v' \/ g6 y2 P
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 w J f. N; I. h* [6 g
! q- V x* ^6 ~2 g- d7 ^ <<6 u! B7 S9 c3 s# L8 [, j! Z
Highlights from across Canada:
, x# R8 o. Z+ R* m9 V" H4 P R6 {/ e; B9 ~2 {; ? n
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
; `/ r5 Y, h# A' z8 K: T8 [ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, F. \2 Y# H; N z: h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ i+ m. ]% |3 Z4 g5 ^. ^
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
' ?7 e8 o7 e$ y' Y6 z since about the middle of 2007.
/ Y8 V: m- u4 i' o) n+ B# b$ z - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the, Z7 j$ v' b. E! T
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to; u5 \+ X) d; p, z4 T
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
F& X1 H1 [/ ^5 A4 X- U largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 V) t. M' f6 o/ T$ n
poor affordability levels.+ X" Y$ t j/ U' ?7 R2 ^
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the: I1 H: Q5 w2 E f q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; K: M% u) a: m2 m+ @
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: L4 u9 T( _& g/ U6 N& r# n. m
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to a- N$ y7 G6 s3 \- v8 N3 R$ _
minimize any downside risks.6 R; ^! c8 g" T2 |$ o' d
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market8 R% R `; ?% f$ ^2 t5 w0 s) L, c: l
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
& ?) q- U( y$ K* { unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& f: ~% G3 q* A( G+ n. ] 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. y: x3 q' O1 i# @* e
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ \/ E' a/ ?2 f& i! d - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& A0 r9 I V; r# l8 _& P" {( | Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 _% X1 \5 v. T* S- M far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ R) o/ b1 T- K# z8 }1 @0 F- q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be/ v# r% \5 Q, u" W" G
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only' O2 P5 N" ]* l$ M: c: V0 p
modestly in recent years.9 d3 [3 s, O5 e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
}6 X6 P2 A, }/ j4 s9 H general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
1 L- a& M( H) Q2 W3 R1 z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& E0 {& g8 o, s# R0 _: \ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 E4 D" }, c0 A$ F! C Z
following two years of deterioration. C/ p8 U# T9 p: z7 p, T# N
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