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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! Z7 ^' V4 b2 w6 N
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 V; ] L- v: Q6 O" emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
: X1 K+ w/ h) U3 L# _/ }. n$ U0 ?gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
& A& a; [5 c2 v% |according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 t2 V! Y2 [. E2 e "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 ~( \) }0 A" y- Isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. W% B! C U( ]* Uimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
5 V+ g; `8 E N X: O! x8 wmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- e, p4 H& [: G, F- D: ?2 ^ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; X& D. d! Z" B' C+ Uworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 E, z, ?" H, k( M: \which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) H! @ _- q" w, E7 `1 @3 I: g
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" O0 D7 Q* `3 U/ ^' | The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# n l5 Z" D( R; G: |- p
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 N; O' _: x# H! {2 h3 \9 L: ~) h
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- ?2 U) C+ G+ B" ^- ]0 ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
. f$ R# m+ c& u8 r/ N" [1 Mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
7 J2 J6 y" X" ` ]4 M1 xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 ]5 m# b3 b5 r; X) n- I p According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
# U% G! b% i" L/ Ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. u- d* I1 C! ythe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 @! r# {3 N8 e, J- i. x7 phistorically depressed levels.
! O* ?" c1 T0 ~1 S2 K7 }3 U Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 M* P0 h3 d5 w' T
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
2 k4 `! v$ f* t. p# fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 |' L/ P, k' L4 l6 |
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ \' }# B6 m; h6 Q' G1 t
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 _8 v% s8 N4 o
months ahead," added Hogue.5 h: q( g8 ~6 }
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
' S. ^4 S" O, Z8 } T8 E0 pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: Z. d" \% @. J( \6 m7 R2 Z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- i6 F' Q2 L U7 O" Q! ~) l* P The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
6 M4 |8 _, w2 Z& c9 Ga broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 K+ `5 P9 n, Y! X$ A3 Ocities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- b7 K" s' a% T2 q0 K$ r, U7 I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' o$ }8 l# G4 u% Z/ @$ e, \2 t
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 C. s4 b6 w$ Y. R0 g0 B
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property. R: ~, e. o% x% W' T0 |4 v" e
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ _; E" w' Q* J0 {4 l; M
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ p+ a; q0 e6 k: j9 \5 r5 ?. v- `condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
# T" x8 h$ r* D5 oFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 w; r( I5 X" A, H
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# x" z. A; ?8 c) l9 oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 b3 [/ z) e& y! F% M: S% O, j* M
5 V( K# u# g. x0 a! p <<
$ K- C8 d5 p6 J" c Highlights from across Canada:
3 {6 Y! \4 q7 ?* C/ M0 { [; B) f9 c5 _$ `: ?! ?! H# I$ V
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
" s- f: {, |2 { intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ O' D1 z; h' e home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( m* Y6 x/ y2 s/ Z0 l6 h only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* g/ O+ g+ J: D C- t since about the middle of 2007.
; S; |+ w$ Z+ V' M m4 G/ q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the+ v+ g& k! U; c$ u% @) ?
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& }- H% W5 ^4 ]* ~2 `, b, W2 V* k decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
. U2 O( t. F2 W, P+ i4 {" c- j9 A* ~ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ h% Q$ i+ ~8 A/ g, l; b5 i: x2 i
poor affordability levels.
" R3 K: T' M/ F0 i6 h o- H# q$ u - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( H) e" R$ y! ~' ` vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 s+ | W* S1 u* d7 J: E5 x prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ Q" m6 Y# D+ F8 {) B+ @( a1 C- d: ^ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* s3 A; w3 S4 s4 w# ]7 U7 k# {
minimize any downside risks.
: z- {$ w. |* p0 Y" A - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% j3 \: a& U+ K
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
) \, V# T, V3 m7 p* @9 z6 F N unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: O7 [6 M% Q% S7 y 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly3 @( I3 N$ s. K# ]) u5 u: }
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& j- _ N; C& c) _
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, g) U8 D; }6 C. ]0 ] Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus0 y0 w* T$ y: J
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: k. {8 a8 Z7 A# B9 j! i" d reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 \3 n2 z7 Z7 ~+ s% O8 \ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 l" t- T/ D/ f7 H1 E! [
modestly in recent years.0 l6 `2 }, F" K& B! C9 T
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 t$ p i. p$ I4 n( A general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
0 |9 m2 s7 |6 S) z! X5 K5 ` spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
' K" f! H) B3 r5 x6 ^$ n+ l price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability; ]( w& J' [7 L0 ~8 j, G
following two years of deterioration.
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