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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 p( N/ b) j, L4 o9 U TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 v1 W+ M" A5 L2 M, U7 S* K
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 [! i3 A2 e7 r/ W4 s
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ {! u5 P8 M8 |: l$ J; e oaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: J5 p+ H' N0 F8 ?/ ?% N "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 A0 Z/ q6 V0 w+ v8 b5 ?% q9 M A( Lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
c: `8 R4 t* `# aimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* G" H, O; o1 t. h& Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- b0 [* v" c) x& P+ m$ @# Y' K
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 v) v$ p8 x( W, tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
' d# ~- r0 H. h. z# q. F7 X5 twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 P- J, Z0 R& J$ ~& l' a$ d% e
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. i( r1 H; J& |, Z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the9 T. G# G$ E! o3 d1 @& `
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( e6 D E% x1 ?8 B: x- _home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
! e) J3 v W+ C0 C+ L/ _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 \5 B* j, {2 m( V) e
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and2 \1 C6 M% G! N( J& ?& g
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.4 u% O$ |. Q0 ?2 ^& u+ y, m
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ w7 ^2 V# q, r* Hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 h0 }6 P t" q3 i8 ~; }- k1 g
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
1 w5 |5 z$ {" ?: Mhistorically depressed levels.9 p4 N% a. Z0 u7 j/ \
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! Q8 [+ K. T! D1 d/ b
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! s5 |& G% |6 z+ ]prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
% ^6 p' a1 c; x5 hhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ ]2 X4 G$ s8 u0 G Y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" |! r5 b, B& ?" ^3 Lmonths ahead," added Hogue.; x) M z+ k: g: ^
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ W' C3 c* \4 Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 l. v5 n% c4 O K c% t( {; n! t# {42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent." W6 [$ }- W" U9 S3 C$ {
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for2 t& F/ M6 |2 _: e6 _
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
s7 q/ p3 j* k' E( g$ ?cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only1 M" D" h: b+ U. o4 v. m2 j! z! k. U, v
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.* ]) f: A: B+ u4 _2 t( g! b
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 m+ n5 F9 m' x3 `" r U/ H
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ m4 H; C; b) X, w& G1 b k
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
! U& x4 x2 _" U0 U5 B3 s& Rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 W8 p% q4 h7 a: q0 U6 ]) a o' ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., ?4 ?6 Q( E! R8 s' E1 O7 i" }
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ L9 G n, ] I3 t2 Y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% L3 k/ r4 P1 G5 v; c
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 \( n/ l* v: w! N: {
4 A3 p. _3 y, T" w9 w. `0 [5 X
<<
9 c6 K1 g: s& v% e. @3 C* b, [$ { Highlights from across Canada:9 c; T' D' k( n( A
! U0 d K0 c' C* g$ b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ H* J4 w& o8 B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 h5 ^3 [0 q& a# e
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& m- q% d- u* g5 n( a& I) {" C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 S" |3 p/ L9 B# P4 Z9 `
since about the middle of 2007.
) S$ z: t2 J/ N - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
* Q' j' l4 d; `/ e- [( {* W) h frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
. Y& S& s# k1 \7 v1 w' @ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% Q _! e# v3 w" Y/ ^ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& ?" L+ F$ o& _' y2 Q poor affordability levels.) {$ z/ C5 r( z" |$ }, R9 i" z3 N
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
& U U. g. p6 c- w9 r2 X+ ?8 }' c vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. _4 }! {+ N3 {; l/ P. S8 j
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 ^, j) V7 T% Z" T; l. i+ J# N/ O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* `4 u" }# S3 l* b* \
minimize any downside risks." T( m6 k4 M. Q6 A
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; ~1 M- L- C) M8 Z
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ s) ]( A. o/ ?. ^) z; o& a' ]9 Q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
h7 ^2 ]" W/ K: j! J; K7 e4 P* t) q. N 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly, b' z) }( S2 y4 `* E
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& k$ n# r. G, k# Z8 u5 v( E t0 a
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* C" P& O5 D( _7 [; x' ^: S/ g- S$ ]
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 C" ]% R; x3 z Q* e
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 y1 c" e; E0 D& ]- h6 T
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 q+ Y0 i! i( k4 M$ l7 H
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only% ~! P; X" I8 n* a1 _( G
modestly in recent years.2 w5 n) V3 q( K/ n8 a
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; I& s4 k3 A9 N% I; \+ Q- { L general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 \2 W R8 A" O' q7 ] spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
4 e+ u8 e6 m; T! M& Z$ V8 K price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( Z# m6 ?$ c- p following two years of deterioration.3 b: h( O$ {7 j4 e/ i
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