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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ h1 w; M" |+ P7 Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 C0 w' C- L- S. s: w7 S8 smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, W: K& x2 h- B9 o7 j; Q7 f
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 Y) C8 k; M4 n0 H- x- |9 taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: O8 `$ F! z( a. g1 X2 l4 v3 ]
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' h9 G+ A! t8 `4 ` esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% }3 n: j2 ^1 P$ O" z2 C1 C
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
1 K1 n' x7 @( ]# m' fmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 z; y3 r t' Q8 ~ RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ } \, H0 b- P" Y+ G
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
" V9 F+ q9 O9 C9 x. Pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! d9 a. C5 l3 l8 h2 R( `& B0 zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* X1 s" i9 d1 p! s3 i0 P" l. T
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ K0 v# e3 D6 R8 }- R0 x- X
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ d9 u! q( H/ R- @8 _ Lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.* U- B6 h: a# }
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! E) }: q6 ~) j3 _standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
u h0 P6 D O) t% G0 k3 ?! v/ uthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* Z2 B* c: c- [# b3 o0 \6 \
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets4 j' Q( v2 `: h7 k
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; |- S# U9 i4 O! q. y2 b
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% W9 U4 ^6 Q& l8 phistorically depressed levels.
7 L3 I6 u' ^/ c Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
s8 W0 j8 M- z+ ]! E' [of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 ]9 l0 F6 _- u5 s) n- w
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
4 {4 g' Y9 ?& [9 N& b/ f$ Rhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This w3 j* h& B5 A- D' j: A" O# D) N
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the# p' e- N' \* l% p
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 o; q* K# T2 c" X$ \9 ~8 f RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest- z* ]/ K5 t+ S3 j) h( N
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary7 _, i' r8 J' t( ]" C8 ^. Y; u
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 B/ _4 l3 `& W4 w2 i ~8 a
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# y6 z% J. t+ R: D
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these$ @( P7 [) e1 z" K+ w j6 I
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
+ _9 J4 ?, W' h# [) U; q3 Ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( a$ {3 k8 ` U+ K A" N The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ l/ Q. {7 R6 S* h( b q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; }( i2 P' c/ Rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
% E$ \' M& v7 I9 r8 e8 U# Oincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
Q( T/ o: {: v, Y+ u/ W2 Scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& }: a; ~- @4 t! ^1 v2 ~! |
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
& G' U3 I) t/ y! S' ~" t% n% {- Ycosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 _3 Z2 l, c, F, o8 h' c+ K0 oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- I% c- F0 @2 y" u, z
" @) ^8 _# W5 f/ S* V
<<( [) U$ o' K% C X3 i P; u
Highlights from across Canada:: O0 u+ e2 l8 o, e+ c
, O; w6 D) Z: r. e9 F - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
P% Q! |. ? Z( ?) A intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! p) H) X h+ ?% O5 w8 [5 ^5 n home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 X4 }4 ~0 Q6 \7 H4 w- N! z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# l/ C% s d3 |5 R: }2 C+ S# p
since about the middle of 2007.
! U( T. Y9 u& h& ]4 }8 S - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the) [& x' l; v* j5 S. D; f% B8 e
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ R2 r$ P* X" m Z
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) y% u P9 T, v9 G$ v- Y6 ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ H. d" I/ D. `( D( q0 i& K4 |4 } poor affordability levels.0 b% E. x, X" {0 m+ ~$ a' M1 j
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 d# Y4 {) Y, h
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: Q; Q5 h: `5 _! |, ` prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
8 G j* J- d3 z9 g, k4 d Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: u& D2 d) U& U4 k! `! y) [ minimize any downside risks. H: z2 E2 [) ?' k8 |& A" A
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ {8 Q( {( w6 N6 y3 G conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is+ g$ B' ~7 X9 i+ _' b9 S" ?! Q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early1 N; m, c D+ d9 s; e
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' V# e1 \7 R \ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.- K- K) j, m& y$ m: b
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 ?' t7 J. n! m6 ~- i
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
* a8 `: r$ s5 ?: |" ` far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 c$ _: J, q% ~* s! K; |: l4 w
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be) [! c2 Y. U" p& e+ u5 t4 r
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 R& S4 y; _) A$ ^* D modestly in recent years., ]( d z* K* K/ i9 I3 |7 h
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the" V9 z" l( E/ o8 B; i" K
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 a' _* S0 p9 s( m' C* A
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: A$ P$ T1 E" p1 l8 b2 @7 i
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) H3 Q, h/ z& K, t6 y4 z" J following two years of deterioration.
1 W8 m* N2 ^- c+ K >> |
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