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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ' T4 j4 J3 i# e& d6 S2 k3 s/ R
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 p( A/ D; i$ j4 E8 F0 g8 vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! v3 [$ i4 e$ lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,6 W/ u! }# W( `5 @* e3 X) F' v
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; B8 ]1 r$ c6 f- R2 C$ J5 K/ [$ S, [
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& r0 f0 P: i; V; i5 @* qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 j' S2 ]; V2 i' D5 mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
k# r6 w' ?0 n2 |6 y. f. Q, Rmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 P' s: f9 Y+ s# @* P
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, A x6 R. y. I8 L
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ Q5 X l9 b* _ Z. B8 v, Nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' R" r9 C4 K0 ^# Ssustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
- y, j' r! o, k- w; P The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
. X6 E1 r9 G1 o5 H# S/ P5 i; Pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
^9 Z% z- H0 w1 }: C& phome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ Y1 @" ~; H8 s0 j+ U' C" w7 J
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* |8 N. r, S2 \4 s. X4 H. Vstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
9 n1 i; d0 k2 v9 b6 K( o8 Z: C0 \* |the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.& t: a. E8 M, O2 O2 E# l1 G
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets+ @. x; Z% Y, \+ Y. K1 y9 Z5 l
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in+ W( H6 N( ~8 J$ t7 @2 h& Y. s2 d
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at- R7 [. P& _: P0 h4 c# y1 \+ m6 d( Y
historically depressed levels.9 t+ i5 ~' Q- c" p0 o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost5 K& e' S: L, @% k ^: @- s! ?! z6 G
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House' o# L- K6 T3 A0 I
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 W% d+ B) v1 B' b- _3 O4 h P
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& q/ n X5 u; ~) U5 r. A8 K3 Eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
. q+ W/ H4 S6 V! p& L- Nmonths ahead," added Hogue.
; k# c) E$ D5 m: i; m" K+ T RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) B' v* I5 Q" g- G( W: Xcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
% V8 j* c8 ~* B" E) m E3 L42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent./ ^) E& y. C" z& W* k& s
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) e8 F* N: O/ ] \: y- X* R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
3 c u' E3 i5 X2 j. F9 p, [) t( |! Zcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
3 r& G7 z0 @, Q9 q6 n$ etakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
1 ?' r Z) n% p3 T The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ p: x6 ]; f& Q W* b6 {based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 n' S1 }- o) |, \* b# E. L
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 e& k* v6 v% x9 ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
6 L4 c& G5 K, m# {4 Y) z+ kcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% n' k$ y1 F4 [( e' p% L3 j4 ^For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* S3 E0 P- R# S+ q- pcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, l" z& r% n- C3 W. }- Q7 q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 t9 j8 u' p8 m! Q0 p+ t- t2 l- v
& c: N7 O0 E# A+ g' s* q' V <<
1 J5 u) U9 |* I1 F4 l Highlights from across Canada:
7 z% r% R5 |) ^& H' g3 G7 i# t# Y( Y0 K" r, v) v- m4 \ C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
6 T& d6 l6 k: h- G8 A intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 B9 D6 T y2 G8 v
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 t [$ E# ^7 C, B& C a1 `" v only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( ]* P1 z3 w! ]0 J1 r; A2 F since about the middle of 2007.
! X& z3 M6 X' ^6 A4 f7 n3 c! } - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% { ^" F$ L) {! O, z8 e
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to! |3 j2 G( ^" l; i A6 X
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, x& J7 [- _% M3 L( g
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( o; k& l8 ]+ v7 b5 y$ d/ S poor affordability levels.
/ f! j, a8 u8 Z6 L& g% `, a - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ O+ L2 A& ?9 ?! O7 n
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; S# g) B" M4 B% @; @
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
; _- D3 i4 E! {' e4 l' D: @; v Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to0 I" F' ^& H) C7 C8 b
minimize any downside risks.* o* {9 c; E' ]) J* E
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; j, j. n' J& x7 F& O; h @) @9 z( o
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# k3 s$ }5 ]8 v* g) H) q unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
$ i* K# ?# w* |( Z* N 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly R; n8 c* a( Q: P
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.8 |7 W0 o$ J: b. t
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
( \) A6 D/ f: C$ x% L Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus) j9 h0 X& z8 ?' `- ?5 }
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up V: w! R( {5 C
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ Z# ]6 Y5 _: q; s) l& ` ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
- {4 ~# M6 ?: Q4 ?. [6 R modestly in recent years.
/ y$ c4 R, d* K+ j - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ Q+ ^( |5 K! h
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% u: X: F; b) c3 [/ [* _ g
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
5 L: p: J8 Z/ U. X price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 ]& y5 E2 O: W% q. q) X: ~ following two years of deterioration.
* W! ?- Q9 ]0 X; \9 ~ >> |
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