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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 O( l0 Z" S/ I# v0 }8 q% K7 p
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
+ o9 z" Q2 T+ {middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 t6 U/ g4 C& [+ E4 K' f" W
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* O! c" V- {( P4 c4 |
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
* `- O; {# z7 P4 ~ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- R6 m _% \% y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 w* F8 e( v- ^9 L3 Cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, ?* Q6 |- t2 Z' {measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
! X) d2 l) x2 n RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is. M. Q$ p' T0 v; n2 }7 Q: ^
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) ?! [0 }* w) P) R E3 B
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
3 u; [6 K: C7 a8 J, C u# E ?0 Y. rsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* {4 ^. f1 Z" p4 ^+ E5 N4 A( P8 X# K The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# q) ^7 \! G. `
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" e/ X& l* R8 i8 P9 I
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.& F( ?/ b" J$ I( i2 ^- l
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& g6 O* u$ O: R$ U0 J5 T5 astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and7 c, b4 x. f( ?/ K# B
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- F; O; X5 [& r. c
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
% Q w. i( ]. Z6 \, r8 ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 K& \1 n! Q. w/ Q; pthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 @# }1 z0 Z% H7 P: `4 d6 w" Y7 b/ r) Rhistorically depressed levels.* x3 ?0 s! q2 _$ J; o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 r2 h) k# j3 W. I# h r& n
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: N0 M. I9 b9 `' m w4 p
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 b5 d( o1 _* _0 O
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This& ^: H5 X3 h' g9 x8 d @
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# N- A. [* P) Q- |& f' }; Dmonths ahead," added Hogue.# |; W2 e; N- c) ]# F4 b6 f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) L( U2 G4 ~5 l$ @0 e) j
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: G# N2 }7 G7 _1 ~; E42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- s# b5 i2 `. _) b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* i2 z6 E& i/ O1 m! h p* `a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 ?" `1 a" n9 J; r, Y( V1 I
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# F- A+ r( x* d0 x, C7 V, q) q
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( ~" c7 J& h: |5 f' H }( c2 B5 k8 ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; o+ ?3 V" r% C7 Gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ b K5 D2 s3 @1 v& t- Xbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 e7 W) E/ A' t% L
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& K Z6 j0 B7 S* k& Vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) h, u; [ V: t$ N: ~3 YFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
- ^6 g1 A* J% s0 I( U, xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 ]1 n7 j6 {0 u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% s7 ~& E" L: l
" ` @6 `- ]9 v3 |3 C <<
$ K" v, s4 j5 z7 E Highlights from across Canada:
8 ^ J. Z( g4 v8 M" G8 a! m) [ k N
4 B$ ?; ^+ T' k# M8 s6 Z! z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ {( Z0 g/ ]/ A H4 k intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: Y9 V3 j/ T# e# m* G home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
( { e8 T% ]2 y# F( p only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 j( A8 x8 |9 h9 y, {! c
since about the middle of 2007.; K- b0 ?& i0 P! l
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the) G+ q/ ~4 x& @3 _7 G( e3 D
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 A9 i( D2 W0 y2 j' u
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
3 \" g6 Q7 h$ Z3 R! d: S) T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. V3 g& K- v0 M- |5 J' E9 S5 Q* w7 a- Y poor affordability levels." X. c3 i; y$ ~; R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the8 b' q) x% [1 D8 m- ]
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 _6 r; `; D8 }1 d6 v
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ I+ Y/ u& ~! a( f, L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 Z) ] e1 Y7 K; _8 F* |
minimize any downside risks.7 _2 d" a6 a) D, e' z( |/ v* a
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: g$ \5 n. E/ K) ]1 a/ f- ]- J
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! g1 g; F. Y% n0 N! w" d unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early6 a7 t1 \% @" A3 ]( K
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" s; P8 r- W( z4 ^
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 M, `5 o' h4 m2 U2 Z) o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& B- l/ r4 U) ~# ~9 N; `5 G% S Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus6 a- d2 P c0 c+ y" G6 k
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ _7 e) G7 @4 f- j; H. g8 F' z reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' i* s% C$ l- M1 M ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) I# \& H2 l; z+ ]: G1 x
modestly in recent years.0 z5 y2 h2 M$ y* C; a
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
: G9 m- R7 _; ?3 T+ V general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 ?' ?$ J" h% B; A
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward. w4 K* Z! {2 `) Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: W- K1 e; M q) V4 U" w; M following two years of deterioration.
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