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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( E T& K6 x) B- o
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: b- I& a8 r( [9 y+ q) B
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive) x0 `# p& ^7 E% g4 F/ T- Z* g A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
6 g$ H J5 j, B; b' Naccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.7 L b5 W! @0 n3 J
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
/ b, H6 E: T X; k+ |2 Zsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# ]% t, ^# @. |, p! e0 Himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability `& ]9 r2 z' Q0 L4 y ?! F& Z
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
" [5 e3 G& L. s- H7 G RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* v7 L4 I( Q% B9 A8 u% r' |worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ J `4 |3 Z& z) O6 o2 a [which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 S& }7 i' O4 o: }! e; fsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 _3 V/ C/ f6 K* u8 p0 A; ]" m
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the! u! E, t) C$ C: X/ ~" z/ F9 x
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ {# \( H5 @* p) _: M( g Ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 M: T- H7 B7 C" y; f) F" O
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: z* k; \' b( y% N( Sstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and. d3 w; H1 j$ A5 W. K
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( o6 ]6 p& C( t$ }9 ~/ x& @# | According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
; X1 A+ h c2 k/ G: J+ Jmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! X& Z2 b: `' T6 ]
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 a5 i9 U' _2 r$ i& U
historically depressed levels.% n! d6 D8 |- U% i: o/ `
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
( l# q5 `) K3 M4 A& I8 z/ Tof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
: r; X/ G: d- c( a% Qprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 V; h( I8 E& W# f4 y7 l- G
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 v, i& r4 I& x# F& I2 tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* g/ E: e2 s5 L0 Y$ O, N. }
months ahead," added Hogue.
1 }. X' z1 y1 @ @) G# P RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! a' G" a! F5 h3 ?3 X0 r* w1 Gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 t) S# |. v: N2 s* ?& M
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& ?% [0 X3 H+ r9 [3 p5 |/ d
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for! K; R" [. W* q; O5 @
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ {7 j& \3 I5 [: f+ ~
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only1 L0 {5 l7 y/ L- @: _+ z
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ c2 W7 l; J3 t. h; k The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 D6 d; M0 Y& _* m
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* @2 o1 ]" F, V3 z3 q! l
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# x' p: V- a" [: dincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
& L7 n0 x( V7 m2 K& N0 ~condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 L$ X n g R4 K/ l, K& `For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
8 ~$ o, w, l& @. f$ Z( Q1 n; @costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ Q/ z) g/ Z' A& i& E& \per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 A( H* a' k! _4 Z( v' w
1 w. O- i% n3 z- ^6 U- o C/ W5 D
<<) p' Q& Z' ]% [; i$ P8 U- F& B% L: f
Highlights from across Canada:3 W( Z! V$ d# I
* { p. `0 _4 @: v
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* x" G0 ~9 i# X H! F; ?
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 X2 p4 F0 H" a! Q0 V. N3 K
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 R% Z( `0 V) ~; F
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track( i/ I% o6 Z1 M4 D {. |/ v
since about the middle of 2007.
- P; I6 I8 v6 W. r( {/ J7 k2 s# ^ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 J/ h" }* m5 ?( K; J* z frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
@* {/ [9 d0 n. Y8 D* e, l Y& { decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
! |7 c% D- s) U- A K7 g# P largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely4 E* G- N2 S4 O6 h2 R& n9 D
poor affordability levels.
: e7 [. x8 x+ S - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% O) g! P9 q6 ]% T! k: G vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( q) m2 m: a% C( _& d- W% y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
: ]' Y# E0 m" L3 d( c# V' L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; i$ H0 p$ @5 \! V& d+ ?
minimize any downside risks. S9 _6 y) ?( s& ~8 ~
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( Y6 n; s9 p; D2 e- a" q
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" f; \) s& r2 i: g; A# z* X
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* k2 L$ w) \8 W
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 {& ?: o! w$ C9 O" _1 D% A$ q being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
9 m' `7 {& c" U- H# H. M - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in @- h6 Y) n$ \
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% o+ m0 P! @( F7 M9 X) q, ~" q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: y" Y. Y4 _* b; o+ S% B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
% o0 l( M( t" H' e ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- l. ~8 C$ N" Q) o8 ?# w( x8 a! D
modestly in recent years.4 k8 m) ~1 A, c0 f+ O5 m
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
~( |3 z7 Y W- k/ _1 V0 J5 O general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
" A5 W( I3 }2 j4 m% k spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 j9 L9 H' j# h. \" y; H# h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 f: U2 P. m1 N0 A3 G; { following two years of deterioration.* {& ~% R7 A' o& ^1 L! U: X
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