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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
1 m" } \% e/ u TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
( ~7 H5 s* u9 V) D! n; ?middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
d: ^; g6 _/ S- j; l9 Pgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,( T9 k+ e! V" W- ~0 x: y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics., ]# R9 Y2 [7 X( p" d
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ f) z4 i+ s9 x3 Rsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 ?' t) n9 C bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 e' Y4 Y( Y! {2 c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 H5 `& o4 v5 f- Y* y' y RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 o* k0 B$ l1 e0 r+ \7 i* z6 G4 Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- L* K4 T% U4 L4 Q, k0 g* [* a
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
9 j; T9 _; M6 a( a+ r- Usustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 h1 M( t- z) _( t: {7 J# C1 i, x The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
- ?% H9 Q! ]& @% {( aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a5 p1 q7 [* M( J# H! D$ D; Y
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.5 L6 D, D# T( P
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! r1 z) N; T+ B# B9 z" O0 V7 Y, ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, Q& n4 f8 K& R8 y0 X9 p9 Rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent. L) _; v+ ~. T" a' _2 s7 g1 Q* x
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
5 |# T2 ?) Y. Tmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in5 {: P: O7 G, B J5 H7 H8 D, B
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( C% x$ H- k# P$ q& g5 rhistorically depressed levels.
8 F+ l6 M6 c# p6 z8 U Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost. [: t/ u& c$ w: ?! \
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 m; K$ n; G) s4 M+ \prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. N+ F6 p# S6 I5 v7 Dhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" w* L4 y: `: i2 L3 p
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) x$ z5 e% x+ G+ mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
: n+ Q v O' E% O7 K RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& g. v# e! f9 ?" ~# Bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% k0 S& Q6 h2 l1 E2 p1 ]1 b
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
( V' J, s$ R' ^ V& l$ D! b The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* \- F8 A3 w: a
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 Q: C1 o' R& g c4 P+ d
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# w% b6 t% e4 O! t6 ?8 otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) m$ Q' @8 B2 y% Y$ U. x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
. Q' ]9 @3 G! Rbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 L+ i3 u8 Z5 P; S2 Kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented4 p) n; y2 M" J; e, H! a
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 ]5 M: S8 g5 Z/ S0 u% P
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( @ z# v S' Q* v
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( C! Y" r2 u! y) z5 F, ~6 {' y. scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 B; I* E7 Q+ B9 [per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 n8 w6 v0 Z7 l- v0 B& H( f! t% M$ ]- o5 \' E( ?* b7 N# {
<< ~9 s S' J2 Y! n' P/ w/ E- k
Highlights from across Canada:
% r8 r- j( m& l& t! A0 K' A* b# p ^" Q$ N o6 V: A) B, H3 ]
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 s! o E# @. n intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing$ i- G5 y* |6 j/ r
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
# @6 U2 U6 a6 Z/ ?; S only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ J% R) B, j$ m
since about the middle of 2007.- A5 c7 g0 N, S) r. j
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
; `% n! i G, X; ? frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
' \- I5 |5 @ A! k6 v6 J5 V- l decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' w: Z: Y! i2 U1 ^3 C# { largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( }6 `3 a% ^2 g& V o, a poor affordability levels.' ~5 n. t. X7 S, a6 ^
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; U# g: }' @4 `- z( g; s6 g
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
V4 u$ Z0 m$ o6 M$ Z prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 B `- L @+ }' c Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ }" K7 m( b6 K% y K minimize any downside risks.( n2 m$ g9 s& A2 ?
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. P, [; \9 L' a' R+ J4 z M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' r( c% G( ^) T unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
3 G4 V$ u) t3 S* m! D) s1 ? 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly3 ?1 `0 D+ B9 b; Q0 n/ G
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 D) Z6 @8 N) [! b& M+ X* V
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
b2 K/ Y/ S9 {3 K, M$ |1 O Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! \! ^, `0 O% P6 O* @
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
9 O3 e( w1 W; ]9 s1 l# p reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be# y: Y7 ]* f$ T% a% @+ d2 u
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, I( i( Q1 X8 b- d$ R8 V modestly in recent years.
* n% }% O; U0 G5 h2 L6 B+ J0 } - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
6 i+ d7 N2 v7 @ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! }$ F$ {9 E* S/ `& p" Y5 {
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- f% m7 ^0 ?4 b2 L0 y price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: |" `& {! I5 w0 ^9 o# ], b following two years of deterioration.2 c4 D1 f) N7 R0 a" @' Q% I
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