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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ) j1 z' k$ G; m
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the4 v9 A2 G- u" K- u
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ Q) X( H0 p( D; h
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" y3 I1 i: s- a: ~! e, f laccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 j {9 l2 r- m' ?% A: e
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," O# R8 K3 H7 j- i9 y
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
. C1 @/ f, w3 K% d4 @' l% cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) A4 T1 l* F; M8 \1 g' s0 B+ w- B
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
" c: c9 Q; m- s2 G% u1 Q/ l RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ }% `) `3 \" h* }worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 q4 S( h6 W& s. B: I
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& j) Z7 ^+ w3 F: b; u9 J
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 e7 F1 c9 f0 k: g7 t$ |
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: p9 D9 E# y$ t( R% w9 bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 j; T' A1 K% ^
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; } M2 |# o- W4 V% P7 HAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the$ b/ H, p- k, \) e9 |
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
+ L& R* i! b" R5 ^the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, |$ e, [2 |4 v According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
: c% ^, c4 ?4 i) {$ q1 h0 ^may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in4 G- S4 }- L% R+ _5 ~
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, K/ R6 d, c: ?3 Z+ R0 J3 P
historically depressed levels.
9 N: k$ T1 V* `4 E, s( u! O9 Y3 y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
. k$ I2 z7 M/ j5 M! lof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House6 R! }9 {! A, c
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* {$ a% f; g+ m- W! H! G% J
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This# }, ^" P5 S( R- E6 ?. d [
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
- S3 }* F- M/ o$ L: _$ z( Zmonths ahead," added Hogue.
1 `6 A( A6 k, B X! Y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% d+ J2 G- N2 `% b
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 Z& W- L. w8 N. e3 T42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
5 W# V+ [4 c) P0 ]+ C) d The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
8 {, m t/ O6 L/ ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 N' K. E4 p( [6 M, z! q$ f! ?
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 r1 L/ b+ d; _' D2 N2 ]; ?* O! |
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.8 T- ^% z7 K5 Y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
2 w& s' e* N6 o3 ^based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property0 z g. W; G- [! A P+ T9 y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" Y+ n. V( J5 n, q3 I) t' R- F
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 E8 N: N9 K! ~, F% k |4 P4 e! T
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 d9 ]* v7 v4 m1 t4 J
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) c# U& p' c; S b! p
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" O4 y. U8 K* G4 l: k. ]. ?
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 C% n+ h0 B" _1 W5 |$ I4 a3 `
7 j$ U+ p1 {, a0 Z <<
" h# a; r7 l* m Highlights from across Canada:1 v; @# h C. V2 T
3 b' u7 K, R- D# I, ~8 D/ M. p
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- M8 U/ J' |% G, Z intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, q) [+ {9 u6 q" i c home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
4 a+ K% U) V x4 T only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) F* n' N2 X1 x) b9 w" Y( \ since about the middle of 2007.
" S" ]: f8 x" H - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
" ^. {; I+ _0 M frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ j9 A- R G5 {: |0 ~5 O6 v. [8 B decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' E, m L/ m& T5 N d; s% ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 e$ H! Z% Y' i0 C1 E; i poor affordability levels.$ _4 ^2 z6 K3 @. }- T9 L
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 Q# J2 o6 D' a g! j7 [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and' ]: \) J/ m( \$ t
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly., t+ j; p$ _- y% D
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; Y0 _, _- `; ~ minimize any downside risks.
* c( i6 ~" C% D8 ]" Q - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
9 \& @9 ]. O; P conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
* L1 `2 Z" {% l) s& X+ y& a unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early; ^2 ~$ T1 y$ r
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 v2 W$ L8 \, q9 l7 X( c' _ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
" T' M! ^% ?, F$ w - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- X' Q" H0 u) h+ l2 s3 F0 G Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
" ^. Y, y! E; q* b% Q1 d far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* |$ p* ]+ b" w6 |7 ?, N( C0 o5 B0 k
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 n) u; L$ B$ T# S; U: R
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" v& j% p! B4 }- L; I. T6 g5 ? modestly in recent years.
9 ~& f1 s+ e! M( V0 z8 P% Z0 l$ _# S - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) m. V' b4 a' t) J
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& ~4 o3 y ]1 ?) z) ?8 v% @# I spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. A. b% K* b7 I9 } price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) B5 x: l: c& ` following two years of deterioration." J6 R) Q9 S+ ?5 w( G) [( R
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