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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( T B1 N s' ~! k i
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- c/ B2 \4 C+ R3 w7 o( o
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive; ? H3 S7 q6 q# B( w o8 N
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
, K( r# w% p8 t) m7 x0 i, Raccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
! d* q7 a) g9 w8 B% b5 Y "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& S) e$ s7 a0 S2 {9 @said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: |& {: w% x* i" s8 ]7 i) C5 h
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
) d _6 Z$ o C- R5 D8 b- C) lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."* n: T% M, l2 C* `/ Y1 ]' V$ z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
c, q' k- ^' j b5 a: J3 ^6 v+ fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, \8 q4 y% I6 z
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 x' W4 a, J/ t7 L1 dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; u6 j1 E4 M/ h; V: U7 a The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
" Y E- [( C) {$ i- W) K8 mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 e) [" O6 a: U
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
4 E9 b" L f5 c8 N5 H7 _Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 f `! t. V6 O* cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 q7 s. s1 H5 g- u2 j& S# ?6 j
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ m( h: {6 @$ x# y3 L( [ According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 r1 S$ T8 E$ u. ?
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, ?6 w: Y' m: }! _! E; fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
% e& N2 c: N) _4 e0 lhistorically depressed levels.
6 H' }8 L' u& l2 v6 O t# q+ V# [6 x Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 ?. g9 c) r* _' F: S1 Qof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
8 K! h7 c$ _8 H* |! ~" y' Zprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* h) ?* ]6 P: A( C
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) ~5 E9 K( M M8 m0 lenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: L7 v) W+ J2 Nmonths ahead," added Hogue.7 m+ R/ N6 |5 ~2 L, ~# _
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest1 ^+ p. M) Z% U
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 u1 N! M @2 m$ H) [3 U42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 b8 [2 ^) \5 a8 v The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% B4 @$ M" @; }/ H% s0 ~a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, o: m9 `4 C; N9 b, I, c2 z' S! @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only [& Q# Q# j5 s* W; h' i7 j
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account./ j0 O3 x- p- l9 U
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. V/ g* {( \- n4 h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
0 R& ?8 x2 m8 p6 S* Pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" b; z* _3 [( Z( m0 i: ]+ S, ?7 M1 M
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 X$ R, ^9 G0 e% `6 z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.) H/ R" Q6 _/ `0 u" l* u
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership) N+ Q6 p0 H4 B, X! v$ w
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 J# i" M8 F4 [4 o5 Z6 X% Hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
, O; K! ^; w% {5 O2 s
) r: \ x8 {+ T9 i <<
5 M/ ?# Y& Q6 n* n, q7 I1 W8 m Highlights from across Canada:
$ R7 d- }- D6 W+ Y1 N( e5 k4 T+ |' R( l) _9 S- C! g b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* f& ^3 Y" f) @$ u2 w7 D
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; x' `# h* ?. q% i+ F1 Q* B. D home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound S: \" v/ d9 z& x) Y" l" p. ~, ~6 \
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. ]9 r. b& [9 y; r; z8 {' O since about the middle of 2007.
( J6 |& n% i# Z0 k: e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 v/ I6 u, P) S# O. N0 W$ a
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 @: v2 Y& M" a) [1 @* b* [
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still- k4 _, o% L. u5 k- o5 m" @
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely* i7 q' y& i) [2 h
poor affordability levels.
1 A4 q `% u S* [ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 e6 s9 X% D5 f4 I3 R+ l
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# Q9 [4 E! `6 t7 F8 \9 p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ Q8 w% A0 ^% w3 X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
$ t6 R' P& o: [ minimize any downside risks.8 C; I5 E5 p, g9 E0 n" l% d0 |
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" P* V/ `) ^* X conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( a9 j; Z) m. x/ l n unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
; r0 x; p$ y& |2 a) p# { 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& R: e8 D' s* h being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) S7 l: s( ~: M. E8 i! Z - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in4 n! V6 a2 x7 ~! J' b N
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 U" r0 }8 s a% \ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' I6 D9 y! o8 x& u$ a
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* U5 z q1 i: L* x* {! K7 h# B+ i ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
3 p/ D8 \8 {) e' z! l! m modestly in recent years.% ?) |7 c7 ?, e: W- B. K$ v
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 d) \4 N; t C8 d) S4 q6 g: P general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, b9 y# S/ d/ d7 G# w spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
- z$ O% k0 k0 G C5 z9 U+ S price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- ^$ G. t, n, g. L) K
following two years of deterioration.) e! ^4 I; F5 G7 t% [
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