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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC $ o: K4 b; ` j) B
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the0 I7 Y1 k; W/ w& K' \! A7 O
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 g2 o# m2 r$ a. x
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 A# J" e3 g" X3 ?) z$ B! R. paccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
7 g" b8 a( J: h& C "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 O8 E3 {' O1 _. g( v3 k f! c9 }/ s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
4 x- |& F7 u2 v1 U4 Qimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. o+ f* e& W& t2 {4 D$ t" }. i! @' }- l$ D
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
1 R- O- j! W) G4 m6 a) G RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
( Q6 m- N! k% L+ R8 `" Fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! z( i7 d( B4 F2 t% j- Owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" {1 y+ j7 t) P- }+ tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.1 N3 w- o; m" t: D
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 F9 c3 R7 G! Kproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 ~ \. U8 M/ @& q+ m+ ]home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
" |9 L1 E4 g0 A% F8 i" ?6 |. WAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the; B$ g6 ~$ }2 ?/ n b$ O& I
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* Y" G! r+ `8 \' b) N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 O! b" o* T8 m8 X$ H8 d0 y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- n- R& P& [8 {8 q
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
( [. H4 X& N s& V% B* J+ ]1 U, Sthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
6 Q* `1 V. e* f3 X& b* F( Thistorically depressed levels." ]6 I! w0 m+ Q
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
- D; Q6 R8 N a/ A5 t; |3 C( Y7 dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 t) c- y: r2 J) x8 e U" Fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 ^5 i1 t! H. S/ o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This) A2 o3 W7 B0 m! i; X
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ q4 k4 d9 B# e) Zmonths ahead," added Hogue." e( Q+ I r$ W5 |# V" a, H' D& P" [
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 F! I. f J' M6 ]( q9 E* h4 h1 z5 |cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" K5 | X/ ]) O6 r6 }
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
: f2 I$ z+ Y! a6 H1 Y9 ~$ p0 { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: E% L, P9 f) Z; H: u5 xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 m8 H. |7 ~* I( A- gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 f7 }- H6 R/ D' l Ytakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
% T! R" V& @0 e0 ?1 a, @5 R; L The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is e4 o1 Y" |. H' e
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; {4 }6 D* M- d- _9 l4 y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; M! G' t+ E% y( m, M- n
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
2 j4 U" H% C$ |0 s+ ?condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 Y4 e8 A0 c+ m, Y; u- J
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( {2 ^' i# B& j( ] c, V4 E
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( B5 L% q3 e' _% w, o3 B3 l% R, y: [
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income. H! z$ {9 k0 ^
( c' M! @- d9 C5 g
<<: P8 t9 G" J* G0 D
Highlights from across Canada:' |% A# O) L' x( A9 V8 S+ s; U
- q% B6 g+ W5 c* B% T' \
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- ]) w1 `) G1 O8 J# w' v intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
/ O4 b9 H o2 s g home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound; s& Z ]2 J+ N! u0 x5 ^% ?
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track6 `9 e9 ]: T. ~9 ]' @+ ~9 N3 j
since about the middle of 2007.5 H5 A2 c+ x/ b e& ?
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 O: ]0 c1 Q/ W5 |. [# x frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 m8 i% ~5 P5 p+ d# ?6 G: @; b; Z9 b decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still# Q% P: e. t+ H' w+ s
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
6 r ]! S& v* h. m$ V9 q poor affordability levels.9 F/ M& [" X. ?5 x1 y
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the( x! U `* H' m8 d' b8 l2 n" T
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 y( e+ Y6 [7 n0 N3 |% a1 P3 ~ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
) R2 E: L: A' |& u5 D7 G2 Q: }. x Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to- C4 b/ k- P8 Y6 k! H. G
minimize any downside risks.# u" I4 B8 b. h9 J$ }2 J+ ?! I
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: M+ i0 _: g, q! i/ x& J conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 a) _5 Q3 {+ X7 Y unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% S0 j. Y/ e* B( D4 ?% x 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly; u( @0 Y% \' a+ X1 Q" w+ {9 n
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 t: a& k( L8 _. R$ A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
' Z% K% {$ a. v W& s( N- m Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 m, |6 ~; D% x! a7 N
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 @8 h/ u) q: z+ t. C( h reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 X3 l+ T4 i5 y1 ~( _$ K- c/ Z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
; B1 E7 f0 D$ a- o9 ] modestly in recent years.
, x% e Z& `# t - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ l- W, ]$ ^5 `: D* } general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" Z( _( e& V; H7 q9 P
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 c4 g) H. x4 g" q* P+ E price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
2 ?, G# W x, h4 @6 [, [2 I5 Q- ^ following two years of deterioration.
6 s9 e: `+ k( S" q >> |
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