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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC + {; I3 W& D% F5 i0 ]
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 c6 A* g& P6 |4 P
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' f, ?, I# P6 L- G( ~1 M8 H- o/ cgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
8 K5 \9 Y% `3 e! \according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
! D% {0 ~3 P( S8 p "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
' ^% I3 I O4 i! y8 msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# G" _+ @0 J7 O, X6 @$ ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 F) C( J6 S! e" N, t" A, E' X! a' Wmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 y1 F8 ~& o1 F# j l0 x: B
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ A1 }* ?4 Q7 z+ O# N1 l! U+ X6 X
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
$ Z4 m4 p2 G% a( Twhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 l z9 o4 c- |/ F( i
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.* _9 ~# x& i: T; w; L
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" r8 G4 T7 _- b: i! o+ F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& X& P# [! V; ~( Z9 J- ?
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: t0 J, F" h) O
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! ^% U \; g9 Astandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' n9 I* V- F# N3 z$ W8 z" p7 N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% r6 F" j0 O& [% c& ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
- w1 B5 X! N4 ?( v% Pmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
$ _" [ h0 \! S3 P$ _3 n5 fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at7 S* P& j/ F3 o8 V% c& Q1 x
historically depressed levels.
/ I2 M" n' O. y8 r8 q: _& B Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost$ M7 v G' c: G
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House# I- Q2 K' k, ^" M2 b
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, H3 I2 T( L8 K7 a6 @+ G
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This6 V l b+ r4 d+ ]0 A- u6 `
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% _+ X" f# `; i* o s, A5 F. U
months ahead," added Hogue.
; g6 b" e/ l r( f RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* j4 L% b5 B% w$ o6 l
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ D" H6 b4 d4 S# F3 o. K42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; C2 C' Z( i/ f& B3 t* p# Z5 y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ o( J' L8 ^2 x# t
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
) { V+ V! F# q! P3 W- ]6 T9 k* ocities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# Y4 d( J' x5 y; J) }
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ v; U9 v) o0 o
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. G5 \- [/ v( A
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ F Y% Y. b5 I) [* r/ F$ M' \6 Rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented$ z) j6 f( I$ ]6 @* k3 u
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 ~! e! z7 w; \6 L5 M. k" `
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
5 ?7 N8 y* r* K8 F% @2 j) PFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership( B; L$ x( w& x# p$ f. O
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 D/ ^) O5 r5 x2 b8 D) r1 ]per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.+ T5 C @- Y. y6 O7 q1 v' |
( a0 p! ]/ s- @* [# C <<
/ T; h- F4 d( Z2 b" R' E. m8 e Highlights from across Canada:3 Y: X' v$ A3 G7 s9 }7 e/ E
: q6 X, \% F$ |7 p- i - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
[! V. Z5 [0 f' U& _. `8 v3 } intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
% V; C z8 }- R! M2 G home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 R, h8 h9 a4 e0 v1 \/ `* v only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track' k) a" P$ U! ~+ D) D
since about the middle of 2007.
1 s6 h- k" E" ~* `! T; \& w - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
) w! ~1 Y( U- l' M% o" h7 h: y frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; ~3 Q: ]# G q# c C- a decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 ]3 l. d1 P) U- B( R
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( t9 N2 s2 J: w* _3 o( G* a poor affordability levels.- q( Y$ l: P% M" J$ }3 _1 }
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
# J" v# \ E' j( o F9 d0 _ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) T6 D9 }+ u) F( s0 V prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
( w5 Q9 u1 y4 N Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to, u( ~1 h# b [- [
minimize any downside risks.
8 y4 c! Y: q5 A - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ x6 ]+ T( c! G9 H/ ]9 j/ e4 _
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
( w, Z0 D! ^8 [, E" p unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' u) B$ D5 P7 e* R+ u; A: d8 ^7 Z) d w 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly: Y3 J7 E! `3 A( r: W& B o# ^
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 z3 t2 f5 ^0 \2 v0 b: B
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; a2 c: p* O5 z4 h Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
% u( B6 ~; X/ d1 i far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 K# X* H. s0 M% t
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. @$ G( ], `- }. n7 s7 W/ A$ E! ]
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only: w, O2 k; j1 m/ u, s9 x
modestly in recent years.: U7 {9 y6 ^& O1 W" @1 E6 {% ~
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- F: `; r# Q3 U& `& o* M' S- y8 v
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot" d- ]( i: T7 T8 }, D; u
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ `$ d( |* ~! g7 i1 p# `3 E! c price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability# E5 s9 z0 i2 A6 d! G
following two years of deterioration.
1 k+ A5 l- P$ a8 e% W+ F @! x7 m: Z >> |
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