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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
5 u) \; m4 D' V: f) A3 @% n TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
) v T' f: v- L9 o* [$ p L5 z' h/ [middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! j, s7 g( t7 C1 n. G) Z- Tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ H# l" K0 \) a R- G6 maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 m# q' O3 ~# {5 |# O4 m+ Z h4 n$ ~
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
6 @: U2 w, X: dsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is1 `( x! Y: n8 S" K( g
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
, b2 P- V( f( n: W) ^5 }measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 j( l3 x8 L: D6 z* e, L4 q
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
: s! Q: Z; Y" }- M2 R, e/ Sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, S/ c, V# J3 v* f8 Rwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 v4 i9 q9 O4 @; z8 L' psustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
$ L. L$ b: z2 }- ]- f. u The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 o! h- `* S7 m1 j* s3 Dproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ ]) Q0 l8 C, ^) H* m- x! W/ P* B
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
& C/ l2 c5 u: T$ ]9 sAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the4 ^2 S0 U! T) J0 I1 L
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ M5 e/ o: `' ^/ j/ _4 ?. _8 o; I# U' [the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
% {: y# r; Y8 c9 G According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 O! f4 \1 b I1 _, Omay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) n8 |8 B' N; H9 }7 Rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 Z2 y( }& _' _' C& t O0 ehistorically depressed levels.2 s% @. [8 T" y' K
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost6 K6 f, M1 {0 n p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' W% ^5 Q0 O/ E; [' a7 Z% P. Mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ ?4 w( r; K4 ^/ v" b$ U0 ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- I$ Z1 w* p/ n3 n0 Z6 xenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
" n5 [) k& e7 S/ J5 }months ahead," added Hogue.- K& C' V; B5 f
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
& i: t! P+ D0 Q$ `: mcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 k0 ~, s# p8 _$ D" y
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# R$ H3 N: t! T% m1 t
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- I2 A, v, \- U' t' N7 G2 Za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
0 o% b! [% R5 n7 y) k/ tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only3 N0 ]* D6 I0 V9 l# x4 j& H& P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
3 }( h4 F) |8 e: A3 [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* ^ K% t8 y( w1 g0 t" I# o9 Tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! P' e' p4 C( W% x% N. u* Y* }3 [benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# V0 [0 ~; o# G( h; v6 T2 m$ i
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 a! y& \) D2 ^) L0 ` H
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. c- |. V8 d# ^
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 V; h" }# \5 {- e% o# [costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
8 N, v% T+ K% Qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 ~% h+ t) s; O- R9 \
! _0 F7 E2 w9 E5 g+ ~- ?+ W
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0 v( Y% u* r8 J% z; S7 K$ S' e Highlights from across Canada:* f t& R3 n; Q
` w. g- _ c# V
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ ?2 n9 Z7 ?8 V0 `' i
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
/ V( ?* t+ J5 C3 S7 ^2 G9 T home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound4 ?& _, z% s$ K) x+ K7 q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track0 V$ c) N. u8 n N9 z* _0 d
since about the middle of 2007.$ u" L/ }1 n; b* `) a+ U5 ?
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" @0 c& ?+ H2 W% A' I
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 U0 P2 r4 o; R5 k
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ e' c) t& z, a5 o, S/ O) x) q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 }2 h* B0 g+ p6 e i' C6 O
poor affordability levels.
( S( ]+ o. a2 E# L& F3 U# R - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
2 B5 X/ F5 G9 w% P3 v9 u r1 U2 _8 E vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 w) W' N$ q5 }% ~7 k6 B! k2 _
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; ]4 ]! \" N. m" D7 e& X
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ [- S2 H% L6 P1 \+ U$ C
minimize any downside risks.
# O& k/ ^+ w4 J- r - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
+ g2 |) s$ v ^; x- [- o9 }# y! l conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is* W, R: W: A' g/ Y- B9 d
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
R/ p; Q/ V1 ?, n& P 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! w2 A( E. G0 l0 m* n. s d) S being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: Y) k5 z `. T% p8 Y - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- s9 j7 K# J$ `. q1 e4 F* i
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 }, k1 c& O$ ?' }" g6 O' q+ l( u$ v
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
' n# c, ?+ _: r0 Q: p5 Y9 s Z6 G4 p- O reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: d% C& H, @5 y) k ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only& Z; l9 U5 a6 l, E) Z
modestly in recent years. {& j% `" v* S, O8 E
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the& X2 v8 L0 U! N6 c( Q3 b' l
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: I3 X6 c: @/ V# S spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
/ E" M$ L& T; v0 a price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* s y: [$ v3 ? ], \: ?
following two years of deterioration.
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