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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 R* Y' G y8 e0 z6 e0 V- ~
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 i* `$ F! X8 ^# x: j1 p3 q2 n Pmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 Z8 ?2 l- [# o8 l/ I6 Ngains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: c* H0 o- Z; C& {3 c8 Q# ^
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 O1 @4 F, B0 ~8 R ~
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# |" u) y4 x1 D
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# k- W0 j0 F5 n: Q" o' q8 q' Zimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ y" ?2 s& a% } A
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' p) s: J) J! _' z% o RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* ]+ @0 M- \6 A" q3 y+ A6 V' b
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
9 p1 ~+ N+ X- P2 z# i. W& owhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" t& s5 x4 t4 U$ v9 x/ y5 w
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes./ E0 t. Y$ o" t6 x9 x% e) w: x
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 |$ m$ q$ l" P1 c m/ d
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a |6 s9 Y: u" M' q
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
( C) t/ Y ^ j) |0 _4 Q6 QAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
! i8 p& S) {& W% L qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# h( ~/ `3 s- w; G
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 ^3 r6 V9 W D5 f2 e6 n/ }: } According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets X! ~0 `! L$ C) \0 k7 t4 J
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in2 X! ?3 u" q4 H) W: |8 E; Z$ z5 R
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* X9 X' ]5 C ]: l( `5 Dhistorically depressed levels.8 \% U1 v, B% w! ^- M
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
9 P) t9 C' E; E6 Y3 r" ^3 Uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* g$ W; s! y+ E# m
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, c1 s; S/ B: |) N
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 j; d! E2 H2 d6 ]enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: v* n6 [! D. S# a) j
months ahead," added Hogue.
; t i; {8 \3 H* @/ k RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) K6 s$ y; F |2 ~6 o- I7 X2 Wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
, `! |/ p* U: O) I2 {; U( I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# o$ v% a0 q8 k& b% w( @ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for0 q9 h* f& H B
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' [* B5 S' z) \3 w: \4 S
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* c. h: q2 Y; n' ~/ G
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* u. `" l4 D) m- W4 t" f/ \ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is" R/ u) V: H: G. ^! V& o" N7 n) q
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, \1 B! B( y; s" ~' l* bbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 E* ?2 c% m6 D9 m" ^) H' U1 Cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: A8 m( s; D, t S r& o0 N$ D/ Bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( g7 U1 K8 E+ k2 n* T) j3 M
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership2 z& i7 J* D4 X, {* t- V/ q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ S: p" b$ a0 \: n7 T! K3 Iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 D' \+ H; l) ]' x4 S$ `$ F k. { r- b0 B0 O- \
<<! A$ v, E' b. v# I, g$ I. x
Highlights from across Canada:3 D# v/ U. W' l- e& f, S% G; \
! O, A' m3 f. e8 m
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has, G# C. X: I( Q$ K( I4 r. l
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 {* `1 z& G B
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 [! u7 \& E* ~ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
$ i/ J+ P0 d) e* R2 E since about the middle of 2007.& [- Q8 y: T# f
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ v! a* U5 l1 f' s: d* y/ I
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 Z" ]- ?4 f: c( \% `9 |6 Y" y
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 X" y7 O2 y0 ]7 Q# B
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 L% m% @4 `% v
poor affordability levels.
7 f2 X+ [* N) a! b" t3 G, m# p - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
) u8 Y' F- ^+ v4 f- Y: y" l vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 F, j/ [* l! U' k) N
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 `6 V$ M! l, e* D
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' P. c$ R) p$ p" v7 q$ O6 K `4 n
minimize any downside risks.
+ G: X" f k1 D8 I# @5 s - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market6 G& H [" i4 @. G9 T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% |$ \+ Y9 [8 N: y- V) j unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! w6 X" c u* C$ b8 n. i 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly9 A4 b; w: t9 c" l1 i
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 z; G/ C3 l, g- A
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 Y& B, g' ?) ?0 R: p
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
' v' Q+ |' i$ L& b far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up f& v* R R9 C6 _# K
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
" F. W U1 ]# Q9 } ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
. B% {; h/ n D; f modestly in recent years.! p+ d% o) I8 `4 _, x# I
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) v* m' F3 }) a. W/ z( }" T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
Z, u6 r, \/ e1 S6 n spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward, O) z2 C# |- J9 [9 J. W
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& ^9 [8 T8 q f2 a K following two years of deterioration.
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