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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 g7 |2 n+ z% I) k+ Y TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
" f. r% s* W: ]# J6 E# N- N% m3 pmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 v9 d: }7 A! Q n* P: S. _, bgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ d5 R: s- M' Q7 F# u" H! v2 P
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 @: g7 I' D* u
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"* v1 o# t0 X* O9 }9 S+ P1 p- b( _
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 L9 |4 Q2 N- y2 A& F$ Jimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
( W6 W1 |2 S; `3 l( J% zmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ H) I( B5 H& i8 l g" Z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! F. ]8 J; k, ^9 }5 l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,* M; W- R9 B4 S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 _+ Z; U' y3 ]4 G- H& g2 E& R
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
+ T$ G+ Q e) z( v' w' i The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 z# t8 f! a- m8 D" `proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a( ~* J( H; {; N) E5 H+ L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ v- R( R; m- W1 T8 c
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the3 J7 Y% e9 D2 z' {8 @: ^- I
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and, ]) t& q* Y# f7 s. ]% f. {
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) N2 U2 q: d5 q1 b' z9 b, L According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets2 ` W1 d+ e9 c' D3 v& @7 v
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 H( T* `% a2 j) N- K* Dthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 O9 L; \( h7 |" y9 D" Bhistorically depressed levels.
; T: N6 d, W8 L z- t w* U, \) I2 v Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% J8 j5 N! Y/ Y$ n" }* v0 yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- v9 v: D, @3 k! C) [9 oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 ^# M& S' c1 j3 s8 g }hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; n: H( \8 N, d, o* E+ D$ W6 ]8 U
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ p3 E5 |$ _( k# Xmonths ahead," added Hogue.2 w4 ~7 E; a6 {7 C! \
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, [4 k7 p T7 ]( @( Jcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( }! T$ B! W5 P+ Z- ~
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 o/ C0 F% X# x9 ?5 s4 {8 q: H+ Q/ m
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! _$ o3 ~# t* v9 Ga broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
. q- _5 d. N# M7 |cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
6 b- M' M% [4 Stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: s3 I3 N3 t0 e7 N! e: j
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. r) N# ^% Z- O5 s4 e
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property6 W1 K ?; b' e; S) U& h, Y& D
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
6 k. B) R, p: ?7 k0 r) E. wincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# E, ]& x, r# vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home." X1 H) l F; `5 z9 h X) y: n; h
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership& R+ C) D: V1 R- Y [. l- C# O
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 501 ^7 ?9 z% }6 u% N2 o4 @
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 A; H) |: @; G; i
: i1 H+ V# H7 @% p( ^- B1 R/ T <<! r7 k6 N* ~8 K
Highlights from across Canada:
* C) s7 B1 x1 a* L+ Y
6 e# Z5 A8 c8 v, v. P% \3 e! k - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: J" L/ y6 \7 i+ k) e- {
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 i/ e, U: [1 M4 P2 E/ N0 f- O
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 x8 S4 V9 ~5 B. `
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 ^# \/ m/ C+ L$ k G/ g; \9 z since about the middle of 2007.$ G+ k- n8 M! Q0 K+ }. a. S
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" s, N* i& |$ `) h
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 z; ?5 d# u0 ?. d0 {9 `
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 u% L) D. {: s largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
/ v. G) m, B+ ~* D. o4 Z. _$ O poor affordability levels.
% e2 n* s Q, i - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 y0 Y$ T2 x- r2 Z vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
2 d: q1 g$ j4 I$ n prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 i4 Z+ r+ t7 }& N* T1 P
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to* ^* G5 O( A5 _; Y4 d! g5 q( t
minimize any downside risks.
, q" \. i5 x. t" \: \3 e8 v m3 F - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& |8 P! u3 Z( q, P: T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is0 s- X, ]1 |! C0 R/ Q F
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. U+ }0 a' H/ a/ `( w+ k
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) R9 m. j H' Z: l* z; G G* H being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
( h/ x$ C) ~, B( y. X. N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
" Z& R3 K( H6 |: @* j* n Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus5 v' }, ], N! x5 k
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ F" m: ?6 ]: X( w
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* R8 O# s7 K9 M1 \4 S ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only# S5 {* F& A, V3 d
modestly in recent years.; {; c1 X7 @6 W6 u G
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% q; }; g( k# l6 m$ }" r+ m
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* r6 Q( ~& g2 U, B! [$ k
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
+ t; U4 V0 P* k* F j4 B price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability A3 H9 a) y# S- I
following two years of deterioration.
5 Q' E+ n6 v* h! b( f s >> |
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