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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! w/ R! ~; z, U( ]
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- @2 ^ D p4 ^$ E- N2 F6 C T! t, c
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive! J5 m& l" w3 {! u# \+ I
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ O( `# c, i1 @
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.' P; _/ l: K6 R, _- H
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"; D7 M9 F2 m* g$ s3 ~
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" d7 f( y4 n6 x
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ K4 n5 k7 ^: a* O/ B: O
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") B8 U5 S- Z. P: a% a. M4 p: s
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is! n" I9 C, c" w. i7 Z& i
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,/ K* g4 \9 Y/ x# V) ?+ A4 H8 |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; P) F2 \# z9 A& P
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. a* |- e+ E& O( W! O V
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
/ L; `1 W4 z8 k# a1 [0 [proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; X5 F$ b8 c7 i+ q
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( r @% J+ t1 h$ ~: S6 E; ^% \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
( h z* S) l# J1 ^8 [% Y/ kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! k2 K& O7 ~" q) H, Fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( A i1 o3 N4 a According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: A, w0 b/ h7 W8 m2 H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in! n4 R$ @, I9 Y, b
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 u( a6 r! c) x* E( y
historically depressed levels.' L% ?: E* p2 u8 j4 E' R$ P9 w
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 `; R/ c, G2 |! E/ H
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
( S5 k- b3 x7 _9 o; V0 x* ~3 jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the! L, m" s/ M- i( T7 ?. T1 B) i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 B1 N5 Q% c% D& a% o7 }enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: M7 \3 r/ T9 t* E9 w- A; l/ A
months ahead," added Hogue.* W; y. y, p% b; {- N/ d9 B! P8 m T% V- M
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 p+ K" p' u5 }2 ` r
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- m5 t- T$ L3 v$ ~& F42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. U- Y: m3 _: D3 Z% ^
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% K5 s+ q& C" L" Z0 `* X, R ^
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; p" [0 ]& V6 E9 L
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 s0 W9 H: m H* [2 J: [) y9 ~
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ V8 H, V5 m: \3 d- Q2 A
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
L! d3 b% l; P3 u2 fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
! C8 I1 v: S2 Pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* n$ _7 F @4 R2 s; E
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 [2 ^* j1 w, w' [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.' e; {& O+ n# x2 S: D$ |- y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: T) m' k4 B" d1 S0 v
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
6 ?! U5 S: F8 u! M9 O; j& uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.; h, W+ h, r3 e+ d2 `" V, g |' S
" @. S( ]; S5 i" D0 F; I
<<7 P) x, ]5 o. v) x
Highlights from across Canada:7 y: C5 r5 y# y; P
! t. m: Z! M0 Y4 J& _! }3 ?2 U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ b! j0 Q1 B9 d% T5 T intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ p% y. H6 U1 P" X) a# L! w home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* A" r+ m4 {3 |+ R; O2 h
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: W9 i9 p4 r/ c6 M! x0 n! r- A
since about the middle of 2007.
" _. c: C* e/ z8 B$ u- Q7 L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% V" D9 t" p3 c% k$ q8 h6 j
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to+ |- H! K" h6 f6 ?' A# s) n4 |
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, n) E/ [; i. e/ g' | largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. N6 @) g" A( p9 i poor affordability levels.
' J4 G8 \$ d# N& R M! ]- b. C - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 }$ J# c( J3 Y& l! P
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
! | f) K+ z. R. h" n prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; \( {0 F0 w, O" g: W! u% a+ b9 y
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to) n8 R. \& o1 r
minimize any downside risks.$ O$ l j% ~, u6 R: p
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. p# a! t& F5 I P
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ A% V! _7 l2 @) d' m* a2 x unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 F/ U5 @. m& i2 a2 Q& b7 [- Q 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly. r$ n$ m3 K% C7 s
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.5 n9 m/ K$ B3 a2 v& P2 k
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 M6 D/ z3 Y( X& ?
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; f6 B1 ~7 _# s" C0 M+ F" D3 @ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' f: p \7 j1 u% j: H
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
1 ?# h) o1 F; S3 K ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* F, F' d' C% _- \& A modestly in recent years.
% W5 l& o' l0 }( F, B4 `6 ^ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! k) |! L1 M! r1 z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot- p+ {/ I# Q! W5 b7 z1 {' Z; J* o) R. N
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 C- b) e! l0 w3 _( `. d price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* n4 T0 L* C1 y+ P
following two years of deterioration.
- l9 Q% U2 ^% {8 z. C0 P. n >> |
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