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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : T+ Z/ F0 h; d# v3 a9 a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
3 O2 V, v3 k% smiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 k& s) ^, B: i2 ?0 X# `- k5 F
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions, H" q$ W2 g2 L8 _. D* w b
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ ?& v8 U' Z- j* s
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
; z& H. R' R- e; ~+ q" jsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is" K8 ~+ F a( R+ b. {& G0 }
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability0 Q& Y/ y- G, @9 v
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% H9 R# K' h1 h RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
, y2 {2 U3 V/ M4 y- b2 A) i: yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 G9 E" y" F1 ?! G( Kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" W* I! u* m jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 j& F: m/ Z( ]. K* s The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 P9 w3 E# p2 j$ c" Y# C+ D
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a+ S ^! R2 K7 A& |7 e7 ^
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 Y5 o8 r" w* t) s. O
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' p7 Q# O6 K& }! o% _5 m7 Cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 x- g! x# g4 S9 Cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 T3 H. y4 p0 G$ k$ x According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets ~6 M9 f6 h" S3 b1 w
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
3 d6 a. p+ a" a fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at H4 L t: ~. p4 R9 T/ W% |
historically depressed levels.
; Z0 i7 U/ p, m8 C Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 \0 `6 t- M; G4 L" y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 D8 D% D! U+ a& j6 H( v$ Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: ~. l; }2 W% ~$ Q4 R6 ^% Z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ C# O' t$ R2 G* T; t9 O. uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the4 s$ \; K& S' l7 H' M5 W4 z" R# t
months ahead," added Hogue.
. _" d2 w3 ]) } n RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, W g! N, B( I Ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 ~% P. U' v1 k# E- `$ h# E% r42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
, G! M1 R; [6 j The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for5 d8 G2 O$ Q" e0 j
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
) }8 n7 i6 [, j: D% ? W; acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 x* w" _4 d4 j+ K' e2 Y% ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 b5 w0 z7 x. C! {& `8 p The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
7 s7 Q* R6 t) I. Q- u( _based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ K H+ E6 F+ o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented8 h5 x+ ~) K8 p$ W# ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ p( H6 C; W! W' k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* w: `1 G" C& A. T8 g! F/ m4 ~" i2 C9 W
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 I' F5 k- R3 e: I) T6 b
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
3 i- O( J' z; F4 ]0 Q) ~" m3 \per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' O$ L7 z3 B: F. c! [( w
* a4 n! x, `( E% [! B5 i
<<
2 e" A. B' X8 K) L) ?6 t$ a Highlights from across Canada:6 Q; d0 j& q3 K* k9 p
# s' ]/ @# j* K$ o - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
3 l( ~& K3 E# Q/ `& ^ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 V; q( x$ i, I- @3 L! z1 Q& @
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 g6 P' Z( U1 q$ B5 } only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track4 l$ `9 W$ h8 k" {& ?" r/ x) y0 j
since about the middle of 2007.8 J! {5 V) w) a9 C$ y i/ b( b
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the) k8 M2 |3 u% ^
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to- B" b+ o6 F( h6 U$ n
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
+ g( A8 ?/ ?* A: a4 c5 D; w largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, }2 l. X4 Q( W1 Y, `5 u poor affordability levels.
1 `8 u' Z/ L( Q2 I( W - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# o# @% ~4 J* d$ j1 ?9 @/ v
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and' {( L2 I- [9 \, W/ z/ Z& o" D
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' L+ o* ?) C: n: z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( E6 P2 e3 e- N5 I; P3 n# g3 P/ _
minimize any downside risks.
$ f; P+ v8 D+ D7 Z3 R% g - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 w8 M7 x; K( G, w! H8 S. C
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
3 `3 _6 T0 _7 V6 d unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early- E3 g& v. n2 i8 S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly0 J/ z# W- X7 F' y
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.2 G9 L- l, x8 O' A! O" ~7 F
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 L# N$ d! u) L/ Y6 z w9 h5 _
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 u; U8 j, L9 V+ j
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
* M2 [- O6 ]3 r( G5 ^* G reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
6 V* Q8 z6 \% m" f7 J3 k# ^6 ] ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 A8 `4 Q( X3 `# { modestly in recent years.+ F5 y7 W, i# U. }: Y J' _7 g9 ^
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 C: t3 a7 G+ Q8 `" [$ W
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot, Q" p2 Y+ {# f. f( ~' n% P
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward5 }* Y/ _( }) ?3 ~3 F3 w6 R
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability$ t) p0 _2 U' f, h, f) `- m: ~
following two years of deterioration.
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