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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC * P7 K$ a. e# R {
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, t3 K3 w* C6 |' X1 B- Zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive e4 C |2 C s3 P
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
% h; _) h/ j# [* N+ taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.. ^$ x6 V; F$ s$ X1 |) v/ L7 v$ i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"! `4 u7 e( C# ?# ?9 r1 S: D
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
$ a/ \& L, B- n6 ]( s, qimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 _- T" w8 E$ I8 ~ }
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% `+ B! V0 k2 S* B) z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 u _' i. K# U+ T9 Z0 fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! Z: w9 u! A. f+ [0 iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
% W& u2 S, m ], H' }sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.+ o7 M) P- \; |* u) U5 g
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the; Y2 T+ m. I5 K( a
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! f1 F& `: e0 G" N
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 b' h7 H+ h, g" u+ [% x) l" eAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' i- J9 Y; W+ {+ N7 M- W* l2 bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
% I# m8 Y, @. }) g! v1 Sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
9 r: x7 f8 S- y2 D# Y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
( m2 U0 F T6 s& Wmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
D* S1 y' M( V6 ~0 d: kthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 j6 a, l" b0 u) [0 E( U! p* o2 O vhistorically depressed levels.
) P7 ?, `6 B' Z0 e ] Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! u# J& {; T7 Y n) Q' Y5 c# _
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 D* d) Y+ {% B1 b
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
( }- V; E$ G( t. Fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
8 b5 `8 u' I5 q- E6 A$ B( @- Denormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
) W) k7 k, k0 k" a$ t9 kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
2 A. i& ^) t' { RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 O5 v- D. f4 N# \2 z. ]cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
( H8 J/ i$ Y6 E2 i42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
U7 U! l! q7 Y' {* n; n The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for1 s# C8 D! b8 {$ w+ X. z- g, K
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% u/ r6 `6 U& B$ q
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. u: U$ x+ T r. {8 e! I
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& e& G/ Q2 n% h4 M5 y: l4 |
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is$ L0 ?5 \# O# ^% x7 X! j7 h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ J$ R: F9 }" t2 g# n8 X t
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
5 ?& |* Q# y! a% ?8 X4 ^, I5 H$ Lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 v) c9 v d3 F, s2 I, D+ \0 S' Lcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% H) x- r4 w2 G! Y5 v8 FFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- }4 x% \/ K4 J- y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
; _/ @1 ]% S* {2 Oper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.. c, w: W9 y) ~% a- ^ C' ~4 q* @
' R) o* z% P* p5 v) g6 p/ b5 u, ^9 l <<: `' Y& [1 d: W% Z7 r5 S9 D
Highlights from across Canada:
: B# ~) ?/ p2 p, b
/ W+ t) K9 i5 G N* U - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- ^+ N' X0 Z% K5 T5 } intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing) U; J, q: X7 x3 T6 k
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
1 R( t: W4 N7 V9 p4 P! d only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 ^! F q" X4 w+ b+ Z since about the middle of 2007.
* P+ `8 v. Q) Z# q+ M7 g - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* H. f$ C" V$ Q7 M2 }2 n
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 ~( N4 \7 b2 I, g J8 W" A. k: r decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: j7 C3 G: x9 w Z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: h6 `7 E+ X$ w+ Z# _7 R poor affordability levels.: E7 e" q% Y' Z$ d
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! w4 t! e6 j8 q! [
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 B7 o" l v q% N3 {2 s$ K3 b
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly., R1 H- |# U7 ?. E$ K
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
- Q8 }( L: J- |' i; i2 k d minimize any downside risks.
" h4 f/ l+ T" e+ a2 P/ _# Z - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market& Q; s- @/ \5 J
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
$ }( O0 n+ d: A1 j unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 g' V& w& A6 m+ w; U8 G u& [: Y5 n 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
- k$ h5 l* |5 P3 k being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 Q, A% |! e7 X - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# D6 n) j9 B" {! j" C4 I0 ? Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ k( J& f. R8 c% v! @4 A far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
: l9 r! Y2 L! l8 u/ o reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be9 S6 V$ P P) y3 e, c/ @% H" q7 k
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only5 a/ j- N0 b( W1 y1 J/ d# L" Y$ ~& m2 w- d
modestly in recent years.$ C4 o% X/ o! w/ m0 Y; [0 q& j
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; B( ?- d3 u8 t ], s general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot1 I4 F9 ~6 D3 A! w2 v% F
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward1 x( C4 p6 K1 @, C4 f9 i, s7 d
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
+ J1 O& q. s h" P6 d2 K following two years of deterioration.7 n" d5 a" G1 o+ V& j
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