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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 x4 c5 A# @' Z1 e- N
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ T! q9 L9 a" r5 A# m: h
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive7 T( | L/ I- @) M1 [& N
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
! p% Z4 V v9 c7 l- {: Q& haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 N0 e5 f# j% [. M
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 U- D( }& f5 l0 Isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 v# b1 b3 J/ C% P* `% S$ T
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
( a# @) }% R$ \; e9 m8 z& _. ^) ameasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."; C) l6 p: Y3 V9 c$ h
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is( m9 C" C5 l$ E; [+ s' K* `6 N
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,% I) S- i$ D/ {# i* j8 i E
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have* Y5 K/ z; d! ]) A A! F" @
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( G% K2 g$ r4 ~8 L' g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 t2 Z3 t1 d2 O
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 J) n& k6 }6 P, t) V" q" s
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.1 J4 U& N$ ?# d6 K# {; J
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the5 ?$ C+ i$ g. E4 p1 g
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and8 G3 J, P! V: j7 K2 w& x0 \/ _
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- v* w; M+ E8 X# w/ o' A: `5 x2 y$ `
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
$ u+ ~1 {9 `6 h; P: o; Amay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
' b+ t- R0 k* O9 n. _/ z" Jthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 l; {5 u( L4 v z' W2 H; _
historically depressed levels.
& _, B1 x9 D: @0 ] Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost8 N0 W4 O" o2 C- p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& B j h6 W" \ Uprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 D4 a5 f8 P1 e. N* b
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, I% d" V. E9 C9 r
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 q0 B4 x& C: L$ z0 U
months ahead," added Hogue.3 x7 X3 ^* D" _& N6 t# E& S0 T
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, s! P/ Q a$ v3 c6 Y3 ^* Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
* x3 K1 s. P* y0 |! x6 ?42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 Q; h4 R F3 N; a. C( X" a4 }; h The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 k) [$ [) }$ Y1 a: g( G
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 o1 u5 v1 I" [; {$ r. v
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ d9 K6 l( b* W5 q" B6 q8 N
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
5 C, ~( _# T- B* ^) b8 D" H% R The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' t9 i c6 ]7 ibased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
: d0 ^; S. m; ?2 F$ qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 `' v4 R) Z" J$ l/ k @7 P- Fincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) w% i- c# u. H$ K8 n& fcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
1 e2 k6 S; M8 _/ b# u; M% cFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership' l {8 I; Y/ T t& ^
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 m: c% m8 a4 sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.# @. m, N- a M: r
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<<
+ r4 o# U& [7 l Highlights from across Canada:) D5 T0 l3 h& M1 H4 `0 H
7 H; A! D/ h/ |) ^) x* b+ {
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& T% }3 ^6 j1 R
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing2 Q8 v+ b1 `2 I* `8 ~
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
N7 l: M! N' v7 R0 f, I. o only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( a6 R' n( o) `5 K3 @. W5 j since about the middle of 2007.
6 |6 Y+ q* y( _# \# j - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
- z/ r! B( k w! D$ ~2 k5 { frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
' ^7 }3 ~! @$ G% ]6 o4 o9 h decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ j. c7 h5 Z( R' D" k0 o7 F
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely z( r6 C$ X+ \& z6 E7 ~
poor affordability levels.
2 l0 @- O2 |* ]0 h, c0 m - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% t3 Q) h6 ?/ r5 U3 |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and% l) ^1 n3 I9 h$ h v* L; [1 A
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
5 i: K, Y- h% W* l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
" d$ @1 R! x2 f6 X( q1 ~, s- E minimize any downside risks.: ~( B# ?- g1 ]( ?1 [( `8 `
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 a$ L+ L- c! S$ f6 i% U1 | conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 y. V) R: R! M- { C) v
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 h6 A" ?* U {" [6 A 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
! D) j4 h( O" D& z4 H being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
0 z/ U& l' n" d: i( s" ~. G' [; h - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
* f, U1 T! s% b6 A) p7 N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus2 i$ g1 c# s% o) ^
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up9 {* \0 j$ N/ d' K: z7 \
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ i& b' t6 W- |1 y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only' Q* `# w' j& b5 S; Z1 v
modestly in recent years.! d" x4 k9 @& i
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 M3 p. S, {5 _ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot u9 `! r2 f/ G2 Q* ]
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
0 `' P# K' p) u! a price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- U- e3 A% b2 u0 X7 f& t3 C following two years of deterioration.
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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