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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC l3 W# B7 q+ ]( {9 K q; a
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 N$ c$ _1 E& _, y* w3 g
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 h" s# d$ e' E; xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* Z" Y. V( P' ]5 \' kaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 @+ A' ?% A3 D
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 L" V) k8 p; C( q9 r5 a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is8 v* F- g/ ]8 w
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability8 a# d/ f5 [% _. s; Y& u+ c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* d0 T0 ]; S, q. s& ^% p6 K RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 A5 { ~$ u. I* E( Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: }( @8 k0 C E8 S# a, Zwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
& q0 W: z t& D9 G B; ^sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes. I8 T8 z$ X3 z& O* C
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
7 I2 L d7 j% s' R& x+ g" M: wproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ \) |; I: p4 S& _- O) w0 ]$ f" K
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.+ B+ I, d2 b" r ^; |
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 I1 C3 d# z$ L c& Z5 D/ c# N6 Nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and5 w# x: B4 L. W; Y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 Q. b y& k# t$ b. {- m# {3 t- b! M
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. {& D$ u& O W l9 u7 H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% M- d/ ?1 W! w2 k, u1 Q: H
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at. m' J, e0 L6 F* t
historically depressed levels.4 }! T4 t/ d8 K! s! F
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
* r& I' B$ E& C" i& G; hof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House6 M1 j5 \) m% C8 N% a$ P* _
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 Y6 t0 ]. K7 }+ a7 @1 N
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This8 D+ x4 D! ?) M8 h% y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 g+ I5 D' u. Bmonths ahead," added Hogue.# I* A4 y) _( d5 P6 n% x# n
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
l3 B' B$ p @# I; @cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* o, _1 _3 D: }; f8 M* x+ @
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( F7 I4 G6 \- u% d; z3 X
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for( Z5 d5 s [; y
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these+ _8 W: D5 B) G: Q c% B3 n: b
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- @. v0 m, \+ K9 \1 P2 L: `takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.2 C8 [0 a; ^* W& c1 L+ V
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 A& k* B5 _( x K7 ~" c$ Fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
# }$ \2 K- A8 V( }/ j0 zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, t" O1 `. ~, `7 `( f) v% T
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( f2 [9 [. O7 m, M2 a: [
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.3 c+ _& ]9 {! o1 d# h$ o
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, ]! ~, i; ]: R$ M
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 p7 r4 e2 f3 G8 o( u4 jper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 L6 k5 u; L$ J D2 F- T* ^. ~
: W( `7 ^8 ~3 r! A <<
: r# o: D2 G$ y' p( s2 h Highlights from across Canada:
! U E' E4 F3 M4 A5 a- j5 r
9 e" D3 U9 Z" N$ [4 {* Z: Z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ D8 D4 S" C7 x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
9 k/ j0 {9 o/ [ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* @% \9 s2 }: S only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
( l& l7 z% G( L: A* d since about the middle of 2007.0 X6 ~* V7 t ?5 v' D
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- g: w6 t& W& H- \! m! X
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' w- r9 v1 L* f$ k) F9 e; T! M
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still( [ s- I/ T4 ?: ]1 b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely! M. k. ^; o6 }' K _, F2 u8 J8 ]. X
poor affordability levels.7 ~ C2 u2 q$ A( \' b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the. l; O4 d# ]7 Y7 v0 w
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; t% r3 W7 S7 O) w E
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
/ H0 t1 D3 x' ^8 H1 A5 i Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
* F: o, F# I ^+ a! g5 x minimize any downside risks.
" i4 V" x; o8 `9 K9 H - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( V, s& h. w" B0 t" M
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 I/ j" Z7 u% X3 U7 _
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 G* J- }# a) d' J
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
* ]9 l- B9 s' N1 J' m0 ^$ @3 O being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ B9 P0 j5 {+ ^9 F. |4 H* p
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in! X& @0 o1 ]4 p/ @' ` C- ^
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; a7 a& a' i- \8 a4 C6 m far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 z& A3 ]/ Y( F' _# g5 q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
6 L) E% |8 C3 j/ H7 j- ~ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
+ \: Y: J$ t1 V modestly in recent years.3 U9 a j5 z+ K0 a6 W2 X
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ j3 f5 `& ^- C$ j$ {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: U( V. S) \2 n spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* e$ \' u- G" _ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability$ v5 F5 J( l; C4 P0 h
following two years of deterioration.
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