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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 a: ^+ Q0 }: ^
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; |+ C) D5 S( D2 ~' qmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
( E& g3 ?1 r3 u ~+ |; ^6 T$ Ogains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
% s! Q/ F! F! o D3 Taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# K5 W. m8 c K* k# T( U6 t( \/ l
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( [0 m y. b r0 p
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
" z( ~% U" g Timproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 [' W0 l: m5 N4 \. Q+ R: M
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
3 N3 P1 k8 L [3 @1 |" v- t RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
3 \- w6 Q+ s5 L6 B& Z4 r H- tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing, b+ Y3 K: C( h' v
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- `4 R* U: \8 P1 J% X
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! {9 r9 a, s' I; E' t The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the1 \4 q% f% g8 S; W0 G- @
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a, J% D3 B# P8 ^, U) N( c* ]
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ q7 c8 k$ X2 i7 O! Z# t& ]" qAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 o+ j V5 \6 J0 C/ c% P0 \
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and" N6 p+ W1 }: d8 ^2 V! s# b
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 N+ l+ U! x; b) f2 f$ G I' X According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets7 B) H; Z* R) Z8 P6 s r
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) [9 E$ {) F. B9 H9 Jthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
' y, a' @7 U1 X: S0 ihistorically depressed levels.
( r- P/ w' l* J/ T+ ? Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" J4 ~7 k" n! U' i1 Y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: C2 U+ [: e2 `
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 ?$ U( g/ \: B. i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, ^1 f- P) U* Z! x5 Y, G
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" M/ t0 C0 u) {& {) k5 j" y
months ahead," added Hogue.3 i: p7 X/ u$ ^' m* Y7 ?2 V/ @; o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest* z& k# W8 p# U! t
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
; L8 D; T& z w! W9 B' q. i5 |42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.) h4 q4 u" Q% P- C
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# V4 u2 z% ?* E6 t: w/ Q
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these/ z6 D, G; F: |1 G: u/ {/ g
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. S9 E) U c9 s& c( N
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.: }. a3 Y1 Z3 _! Q& O) g5 ^& l- c
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
! M* a9 }1 Q) {) zbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
( M. z! Q) f' z; L8 T, Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented Z3 u2 A9 Q: y) a
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
$ ?2 K& u* X; m. K2 _3 ~* W" scondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
7 @' y% ^# u6 {7 d, A" ]2 P$ [For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 R0 _0 z8 ^6 Y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50; g( e8 G0 a; E1 ^. N
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 E' h5 a! f2 n. ]/ r- t! B7 I# ], d" `! U5 ]1 X# r
<<' F! q0 H, w3 R- H) H
Highlights from across Canada:5 A3 [2 F# ?" L, g+ f
& U( y: M! V& D+ @! h0 M5 |
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ ]* a1 o( u, U- c* P7 [2 o
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, b8 o- d7 L+ l. |3 t/ L. k
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
, r" M, e) `, a( \6 H0 f only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
+ C0 I$ K4 Y+ \% n) l+ | since about the middle of 2007.9 A& E" W8 G( s, [5 |) Y* d+ s4 C3 w
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the8 s3 }7 [( M9 s) Y2 v$ K
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" R& p, r! ~( X2 E decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still# p: P$ K% C$ e8 ~ }, g
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: d, Q8 f) f B poor affordability levels.
8 j" C! D! t) H9 y- R1 d - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" V T% F" v2 u) h
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 }. w" M; v. P5 G4 R! Q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.1 @) F6 N1 |9 z1 K9 R0 O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to: z- A% A7 S( h- T5 D9 K
minimize any downside risks.
0 @% f; R2 {; A: j `- k - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# F$ T1 t5 N: i# U conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is" ^2 J# T M# U' k
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: I3 h) e* }: c( k% k' I
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
: c3 F' e# y3 i being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 M* _& ^& K0 F" a0 ?6 z; Y* I
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in( C7 _$ T) M3 q2 q
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 N+ Y& B. R6 s7 w9 f" o
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: b& s! L" }& [- \
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be4 g* K: V/ d D" a: V! m3 j
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only- j9 d% ~( q' y0 G& e' j2 _
modestly in recent years.
" [! M. I& D$ {7 G% j9 \/ V - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; K* l* T0 e- a6 N0 Z6 x! C1 X
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot8 [8 s+ F& J8 ~0 B
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward$ s2 E+ m! J& W& h" a4 ~
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
+ O: X+ C3 }2 T! q! q2 H: } following two years of deterioration.
7 n) N& k/ E' V/ \ >> |
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