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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 r- s$ [) j5 b6 y% b8 ?
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: o' i/ C( c; j; K( \" O9 e' C
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
. G: Y5 E8 h% @, b* ~2 m$ agains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,0 X3 I- ], x7 M( l( S+ J# n
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: p& U3 |: K" m2 s$ I5 e* W4 B "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
& |: R5 u S2 W3 L% ~% H" Isaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
% u8 F) o' V4 `! u. I' Cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 R/ _) ~+ Q! ]+ N2 K+ u9 V
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."7 C. @! X1 x2 Y! o2 v6 g
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 j+ B1 S* y) N9 o& n8 {
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
/ v0 w% N' m: L) O* dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 p. i9 ]5 G, R# x8 e7 Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" n3 z: |" R# O& h3 O5 s' W) N% o3 b The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
' P* Y* g/ ~8 [+ D, u9 L8 F o: r8 lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 w- v E0 T G* Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.( @7 Q3 G S+ [! s$ t& ~
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, W. P- |, ?* w4 G* g. d2 _1 I, w
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
E8 F! c0 S; e2 d1 J- L6 L; Xthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 g! L w; j3 Z
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ Y+ s! c& o% f3 K% a- f
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
1 V3 q) s% u4 m5 xthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at4 A7 [# l6 T5 j! `. ^1 h) ], _* b
historically depressed levels.
! s% g R* K2 \- x" O: A Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost& ?+ p4 m5 L4 F, ~6 H$ |) u
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House k# A( l, b8 z
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# S6 S0 h! ?0 h$ g6 v# g
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
" l5 P. _( Y6 \. J. g7 ^0 s# Jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 M/ d( N' X* x2 ^* }8 U. r9 [
months ahead," added Hogue.# P' l! C' c2 Y1 X% I9 n7 S6 M
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 P( X* q+ _1 m) a6 Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 @% s, C5 |; n) }3 E
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ |$ Q2 H' x( E% Y, }
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ v( l6 B, M) s, ^3 C" F
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 l! {/ t0 x( s& @" ]+ v- k0 j
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 T ?* E) W. G. e" f
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) T5 P8 R7 d6 y$ T2 ]
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 K* k' C+ |7 |! ]) e6 Z2 y" cbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
- j$ w& l$ O: s; p& Fbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented5 j2 {- Q: K3 g) Y7 G: ^% \; p* `
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
8 v" N1 C) h+ V/ R9 ]condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
) r* ]- B9 C$ J4 AFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' D: G Q% ^% Fcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
& z9 L. J+ ?& x+ [, D% t+ R5 uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 b5 T1 S0 `/ ]
$ ?3 _ o' d# I
<<
. T0 k- c) y- y, Y Highlights from across Canada:6 v. V# N+ P& K5 C+ @! F, S- y
- L" u8 j# [' Q/ \% H - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 |& o( M6 x8 H
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- \# @) Q! K) i8 b/ `/ f home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound0 B1 e5 ^$ z$ z/ C! [" b( _5 C. X G
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
, X# F* s: Q" s9 h since about the middle of 2007.
; A5 V8 D% |5 O( o; S - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ g$ X! c) N. o$ r) G' D7 S frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
" Z+ N5 m I, x' O _; T4 K decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
7 `+ H3 \% E7 u largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
) B; [0 T1 E b0 k3 R/ h poor affordability levels.
( }" g0 r7 X! X, ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
( N; U& i5 K( L) T$ |0 L vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 |4 Y1 {; w2 `0 G! @
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
' I8 \) F0 F* f) Q- d! P Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 j2 C# d2 {7 @7 X
minimize any downside risks.
& ^) i6 `5 Z5 O - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 E9 q& i: o: d7 {
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is& D8 H8 r: f+ e! L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
% {% N% `3 ]' ^ y5 D6 R& E6 w 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ L1 W# q' W3 q: P2 T being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.+ X- t P* a5 ]: Q* P; E H+ |
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in k9 d- z2 u, [5 p4 a0 r5 ^& r% |+ ^
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
$ l( v: j% a" ^; u) J& `+ b far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
; e/ f# W0 t, t2 N% H2 [+ P8 o8 K* U reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ Z* k& d% L* {6 {- Z. F ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
& G* q# _4 H0 W2 z' O; I modestly in recent years.
8 }1 t) y! N( U: b0 g" I - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; M/ m$ S+ V) }; c" C
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
\& o) m, V, T6 N5 u J B' @ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! R% j/ a) W Q# I- ~1 ~- `
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 E, D* {! s; T, h( `1 X" V following two years of deterioration.; _: G+ p1 \6 |
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