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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - U6 A- y7 p/ v/ O
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
! c f% C+ f, n3 n0 Vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, F* J' `3 q2 y9 w, M
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" J9 e8 ^- H! \2 u9 w8 laccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 r l! Q- E' ]8 ?2 @8 z "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) {2 V4 [2 j# g; M0 ~$ u0 U# Fsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! j. A) E7 _9 ` r* Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 g0 I) R) E- S2 S# p n) |
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 n. i/ u4 g( [! O# I
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% @0 T/ J( B8 B# l6 z( B
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! Y8 D/ F$ ^6 ?! U& S: ~which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have& E; J& a& _3 n* q+ m
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: r& ]7 ~1 w: n) M8 J The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
! L6 F5 z \/ K/ ~3 B! f" N& I% {proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& M; v' ~6 }( Z$ V. {
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 k/ F' G* k# U* m8 v+ e2 W
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 `' ~; B5 v @; s2 S
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
1 k3 t$ W" S! p/ {$ |' zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.9 _$ a/ z5 o1 L' D
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, p( L* S3 o+ K% e1 c8 K' @( u/ t
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% u7 P: u- H% p4 `0 U" d _/ Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at0 X1 ]$ z; |6 B& ?+ O
historically depressed levels.
; I8 V% r" F) _5 ~ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! H; q7 { _* K" _
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House* k# M) O: r' B9 S4 N
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ _* @4 Q: P _; R( ?: `) ]hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& z/ g* q- [) |/ uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
4 x4 g: }0 s, _- y0 H7 M. |months ahead," added Hogue.
. F' h, b0 N4 q3 C% } n3 a RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 X2 L/ l/ u) ?4 Z5 c
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: b) Y' }) k# j6 q/ a; f. D
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
0 i3 P1 A4 {8 p! m The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for B# j! u' X: Y! `
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 d4 P, r$ q3 f# {& w3 O ]8 M
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) @. M! G- E) @) B7 \
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
/ u6 o7 c3 P: R1 ] The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is. I# T# A' I" m' D1 a3 G& d
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property- q, K" F9 X7 Y& `- ]5 g4 Y, o
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented( ?& q1 K. s2 C6 K
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard- Z3 m" |; F, {9 j; z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& |% n+ H. {8 I" ?3 [, f
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
( F* I7 F2 y. v, V8 Q) t5 Wcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, M* F2 z, y+ ^0 ~) H3 r3 v. i: G
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! r6 u! e' }/ l& ^
7 ^" n) X& x9 \7 D
<<
) V" |; t$ k; W' S7 ]% [ M" v Highlights from across Canada:& l" q# z! ^0 }3 E+ Z2 k
% {( r' H; R+ D# c1 |; D - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) t4 I5 _* G+ O" S
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, h2 d5 L5 t& A* X. c
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
! o* H, a7 g% {7 _3 H( a$ W7 Z only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. H; a' U5 t) B8 a' L9 b' i
since about the middle of 2007.8 T5 x- a/ e" F. ~7 Y9 ?4 e, ^: K# |
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
+ x2 y) p, n# h/ I1 M; @ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 l: Y1 |8 p, r2 G: R) f
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ \1 L+ c' B6 z- r
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
8 u: U! E# m2 z: |8 h) } poor affordability levels.1 y7 \; Q: `' v+ n
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% u- {2 m i) `0 L: ? vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and0 `0 L2 d+ [# n9 f! @& `4 f, _
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 K/ G, @7 B9 u: w1 X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# k; R0 p6 G1 P8 x' {& }; H5 @1 h minimize any downside risks.
- p2 M% N( C2 d" T. s* A! q - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 b4 z( S$ Q7 m( K5 G
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is1 w7 D& ?, j0 ^& N5 [$ ?, B2 m
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! p, i5 ~8 r% l& X& x: J 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
A0 h1 A3 h/ m; l! Y4 r! } being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
; y6 V! g) w. I% ^' S - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: p9 i, ] L4 u8 f Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus% T. U" N# [" H5 J$ n
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 [, q+ U% g: g reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# Z5 Z" Z& C( m2 p" V. o( m5 t# ` ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, c0 M8 ?- _# t- r, i modestly in recent years.
- {( v. i3 \0 D1 ]" q+ {' m - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ ]1 p2 `7 a9 x+ F. r: n general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. U9 R- Y; G. o/ r spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward k. K- H( W' H. y8 R5 E3 _
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% s! L0 A9 d; _3 P' s& g following two years of deterioration." ]; z2 L& d( O* ?
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