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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( q: Z$ z0 \( p/ w
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
. w) ?2 @" U) Y: |+ e7 vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 m6 }& L! [# @1 pgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 c( M4 k) b2 m
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.4 \0 y# j8 q3 _# a; P3 P
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 u' @# B% N# g6 W# P& K
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is* p* B+ w9 i; G [" l- @& W
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability# i2 l. I, @$ w/ q# R
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 C1 U5 P: h/ [: V! w& Z& c @" g
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 B u4 w- @7 Hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, u/ u8 N" C1 v8 K2 m
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have, T! m2 E. h8 T! _- E
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 j' ?! n0 G+ s- E7 G! p The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) o9 l! M8 k+ _3 k& c2 S4 z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( W/ y/ v* ^! N; V2 s7 h1 c( J* ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.7 I2 H! K& i9 W' S
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
- _5 h$ {* s0 C# B, ?4 \, @3 ostandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 z- X$ n8 a& M, }% a2 d7 m
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.; i; a" U8 c& i9 u
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
6 Y2 t' z) v. G2 G( gmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in' N- D( A, c& B% P$ @9 Y5 V' V
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, ]) I% l4 o/ G6 x; B; n# Ihistorically depressed levels.5 e$ f' s) D+ K& s
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 W/ Z; H" @" t3 A& d! @# ^" Xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& {) j% _( U4 P6 Z3 Z8 M6 @4 o4 k
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 _ r J7 Y' D( \7 W5 M" ahands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; W7 r6 @( ^$ b& W
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
4 t* @2 g% j7 j5 i. a/ ]! Jmonths ahead," added Hogue.
* E2 V3 p [3 c/ d RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( c7 k- ^5 l' r7 W
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary' Z. b6 l+ f; j6 _
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.+ r* t {) P* ~8 q
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for- ^0 k# {* M5 r3 ]2 L! [! ?& _! M
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these4 k/ n8 p; F4 X3 ~0 p1 I
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 n+ w) N* z5 a: `" Q( |takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 V$ @5 e% I- u" M9 j, I2 @9 q
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is& Z/ Z; ~$ [1 r
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property* k ~8 B/ F. D+ C4 W
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* O* ?% S) Z; K! l9 U) q8 n3 Mincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' a# P( x+ h& C% Z5 s9 Ncondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: e3 B1 D7 ?% w6 M% E( @: o5 R' Y
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, \3 j( v) Z4 x* |! p% w9 {- h( Xcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
) r# L& S/ n& C- ^- U r, |. X& Mper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.7 m3 `: S4 A5 E% v7 [
: N+ J: s/ Q5 H8 u* g; E5 t0 l( H) u
<<) E, V) E; f) U' [$ o" _5 ~/ g
Highlights from across Canada:
/ D9 e) u! @: {& T9 _% \' X% w" X2 P+ V. ?3 N% K+ u1 ~& @
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! U. N$ M" F0 {! n7 S9 [ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ Y) W0 H- c) W% M- l/ Z( r home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- O4 a/ K1 [6 i8 S9 P8 V
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: N$ s7 O/ }* D5 S6 b since about the middle of 2007.
, u' p% O* g6 O - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
' x. U. x) a: E' }( S% } frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 r0 {; W2 `3 G+ E
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* ?8 d" c0 C8 L largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
% d6 D9 c8 \0 b; v+ \9 P% A3 Z, r poor affordability levels.3 C# F5 j1 M, ]6 i" S/ c$ _4 M
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
0 x& Q5 d7 c4 y. `+ G vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and2 t7 \9 r/ I5 j2 R/ x5 p
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 B, d( F; J) C1 N/ t7 m7 |
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; }" y3 D4 t+ p) U1 R0 B% t) j
minimize any downside risks.
% ^' m: n( ?, S* V/ m9 F2 | - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
. W; N0 {! k. t conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is$ T3 k4 P7 E. J) i8 r6 n4 T( w
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early/ n' P+ i% {, ^0 R
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% l& I) w, \/ c% W0 ]8 y9 y being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) l( _5 n0 |+ k+ H' X, T% u* W - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- O. K6 w3 N( \3 |( p Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
. N3 H3 z0 |" Y8 ?! g) W U$ j far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 J1 s: N6 |! ]' H/ z* U8 l0 a6 C, V
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: B/ S* p$ M& O( i) U! F
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 F+ X; [; b) T+ @$ M modestly in recent years.' q. S; F; p% Q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. E( Z2 ?& x- P+ e, x: d" g+ V
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) P" B+ K/ r5 @/ z8 _
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
# f: S! A/ R* h7 S0 ]2 x price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
1 v1 D$ H# h8 l% K# j following two years of deterioration.
1 q- l7 w: M/ T >> |
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