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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 }. l; {& U* f: T# W$ | TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the) u \' w7 \5 `- [* L, _
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, D. p% u4 }! e
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: p2 j7 ~# O. O$ jaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( @( \( p; d) d "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- Y9 a E5 e, F) Lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 v8 A" f3 `; `7 L( W. k4 a/ {
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
9 x5 v- n5 D4 ~" ^, Gmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."+ T s# W7 _( s& b, @( l3 H: v6 E
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is3 |2 g" Q, \7 P8 X4 G. ?
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; Y, G$ v+ x* m( _; bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
+ }6 ^6 {. f6 q; fsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 X' T; [4 A7 n: d! s: N! [0 G5 V( c
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 T$ P8 @6 G0 e9 J
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ _. O! c/ ^. Chome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
, A+ k1 u2 T& }Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# ^" A' o- @0 ~5 d9 F% E+ N7 o9 S1 Y$ Xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
: S' ]; \% @5 ~! i0 lthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- L, i$ m) o1 Z8 |4 o& d/ L According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
! b( N: Z, V+ F5 D ^; K- L: s) Umay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 ~8 e E/ y5 D6 H0 j; K+ T( i' v" W
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, L. i' f0 l" `. q3 A) p# ~
historically depressed levels.: D: W( [( [( Y B% W
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ z. z; \+ ~7 G) `6 t& a* K. L
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
4 d( N, N2 w3 xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the% ~ _! T: t% P' K' j
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This$ X. V1 r' l* c! U6 ~7 Z% V1 [
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 T) U* K Q+ A- h+ S2 f6 T4 ~" k
months ahead," added Hogue.! w3 _) P5 r+ g- V$ x! Z
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, W- \3 x5 { b0 ucities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 i- ?4 A6 C3 D+ t M
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ r# L0 `$ _% ]; j4 Z2 n, u! D The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ i) n# ^& I5 p# ~a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these6 H! i9 ~& l+ g5 Z4 K1 x& \3 [$ i
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
. d1 w+ s8 P" w, a5 _& _" Ltakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.4 w, C/ C7 `9 C: }
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is+ a% F ?6 u$ T* q* h% ?- R
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
" R' K5 X; w! d$ |7 e1 Z( Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented0 i* a% o5 I9 k' G0 m
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard6 o! C8 g8 k) V. ]
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.6 n: ~3 ?! `8 _
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 e: ^+ `/ \5 }2 Bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* c# g+ n( \' A' o6 @per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' B0 O" o: A1 F: k5 D, y; _; ~8 L
<<( G+ w( J( K' K3 r0 h
Highlights from across Canada:, M+ m8 }" M( v( J; w7 x( J% T
' |! |% n2 q$ Z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has+ E, P: m. c l, \# t' z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
7 R3 f* t! M6 Q; C! l home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) {/ `0 A/ j5 x" R! i only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 u9 [$ R- C* N) r- P ~# Y3 I since about the middle of 2007.
. D O6 I( B8 Z' T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
5 K* q1 W6 H' K; C7 h& I9 ` frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ U- {5 N+ F8 z# `: y( ?4 j' P1 U decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. y% u0 X1 f: x4 m+ j1 t5 j+ W
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 R. s* j9 c7 |; I4 M8 f' |$ |+ ?
poor affordability levels.
) p' @$ I# |/ A# ^ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the' g! ?" R5 c, ?: i1 C
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* i) R" |. P( e1 a; c0 a
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." j+ F- O9 g) n3 ^
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 P D" S% Q+ @! I3 x' |/ ?0 Z7 o8 ]
minimize any downside risks.7 i6 e# N$ F% G! m/ T9 A% b
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' O, l. I5 T4 V, E7 r
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
7 u; L3 z2 h' z# e5 S; W- B% R unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early$ N; X- d! {! O, T% U
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly9 u) @4 u+ J: q- A' B
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* }, k$ G2 N( }
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in, a! }: U) G6 @
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; y0 U" i7 N% N8 U" B( n* l far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, J3 h6 d2 Y. q$ |, }. e+ E" Z
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be4 H% d; t: g+ m4 q0 R( u$ K
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
8 m; z' O, z# t b9 P modestly in recent years.
+ r0 m D5 z0 H0 n# x4 S6 u - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
$ Y* x K! p$ n0 l" i r& p5 p% c general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 l/ V1 Z/ a7 n
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% G9 @* w8 D4 h' N( T3 p- L5 ~9 A price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 P0 S5 N$ f8 d" R8 `1 v& G5 e
following two years of deterioration.( X+ n0 B2 M4 @
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