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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
+ @9 t0 g' w m TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the9 p, h" y! a4 L; p+ }
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ m+ t- Q$ @# }; e+ e
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* l5 m$ b8 s2 P6 |: P2 L% z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' V" F4 u- {! r% s "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
! A( w/ N ~, n* Esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ h( r" w& P8 Q# B+ _: F
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability) Y9 R$ }) D$ R2 u! J
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' }+ ?" b- x2 Q, H# Y- [5 L g+ s RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 Q- f* M- O8 q2 K4 s, m3 i( nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 ?/ ^+ R, B4 h0 W* \! N
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) L% }, x; l' t9 g3 Hsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.3 J2 X5 d" E% G# Q2 p2 E2 f @
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
+ p6 w+ M9 f) X7 n! D8 F! Oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a$ G; u) u" B& Y; F' l6 X4 D q _
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.; E1 w3 S }- }! A+ _
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' w& H" h; o1 S Q/ Xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and. ~9 K# @* E% I% l5 S9 ]2 F$ g
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent., R+ L3 H2 ]; p5 a
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ D7 J/ r3 D/ b/ e, H4 O. ?" { z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" X4 ]' v2 u& I: Q9 Z% y- t) v# ]
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 T4 i( S" N2 a0 m7 rhistorically depressed levels.( c, I% K8 ]/ f% j% } o) ~
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
: z* K; L, x3 e V& I& [7 X% Dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
3 l& \% b m, n. G5 |- Sprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
) X/ M4 j A0 [- ghands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 B) B* I4 ]: C3 C4 jenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
7 D, Z! l; a2 y7 V, Wmonths ahead," added Hogue.
- x7 ~: x- q4 v. ]( g- w/ R0 b RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% r* [" A4 d2 s* O% P- @7 _0 v& t
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
# ~' b; e( f2 M42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.9 C6 W. n& `% K
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) c# Y1 w4 w4 c8 J+ R) Q3 f6 Y) ~a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- V) c+ b0 B$ @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, ~' z5 G, f6 [takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.3 m1 I$ f% U# F0 J: Y( i7 D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 M' e/ N3 b. S& ~6 v% c* e
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
5 g: e! ~' q- l' N) F, i: T& I+ c& dbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 {" M5 L9 Q; o/ L
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
- n, c* O, G% a, u# vcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.8 @" A1 }* }: P3 F* Z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 y9 d6 X, i& n5 mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& J/ H! Z& F3 C
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
" F, y2 Q6 |8 `0 {( w/ c0 S. T t' j: i9 C. C+ s
<<2 a& T' D% D" L: }
Highlights from across Canada:
( Z* y4 W9 O- u+ c9 _$ r# W) @2 L3 {' R% M I: g3 h& t
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ |# q' r0 N+ K3 f6 K) P& ` intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 U: c2 B) [9 ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound2 L) N1 ?2 J$ x; Z: |( w6 y2 ]
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ d$ v6 S ~% p) d+ ~" w; ~
since about the middle of 2007.
0 d8 z2 W( s5 i( O - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" j, c* K/ C2 ~ ]
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 ], K$ B; y0 i3 t
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: m- V) i4 l1 J, t largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
3 b+ W4 F. |! |. m H poor affordability levels.
# Q, r1 H/ J6 ^3 u - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the; P3 S6 b( ^8 A9 i3 O6 O4 x1 o
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( l( N- A9 K) _* Y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
$ E$ e! X | Q1 s3 s# R Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 G- s/ C" r0 `
minimize any downside risks.
" V: Z( `+ p) {- [& J - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
/ o' @, h( K/ j6 Q7 L conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is8 K Z1 U% `8 _) j0 U3 b
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
- v2 |' e- l: A" g. _ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 p7 J) C( J4 u$ _ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 K' ]9 B+ m. {2 T1 v/ Q4 W% p
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in/ t! l3 W3 o: z5 c9 O+ u2 c
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' n) ^6 w4 u. L
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up! M" U' p. x- _' Q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
% l+ r) t* J8 Q1 Z* ?! k$ r B R ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
9 J4 j! Q6 p. H4 }* w5 q b modestly in recent years.
* t( }7 S) y2 z3 q% T% d - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the; R4 Q+ K n/ A) E
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; _# l. o d- W5 o spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 a) S8 j* G$ d' ], x1 t4 I
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability% W+ y& X) q) q$ U, R
following two years of deterioration.
$ c5 B( R7 {$ w' d! d% u >> |
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