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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 Q! { f: X6 j% p* M6 t
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the: H1 I, n. R2 O/ W9 `
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
{' d3 A6 t: i* _& m6 Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions, V3 ]# R, `" @5 s% C
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
9 J* {2 C! o4 T, T" K; ^8 o2 r "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"4 b% w6 y* q5 R' W3 V5 p8 p, k
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
7 o2 n7 x+ V' k6 mimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 U" u. J) F" Smeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! i, o, i5 @4 j4 X7 j8 B' o4 b
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; w& O% [; T2 f2 k: Mworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 j' w6 S0 K# u1 C0 V1 j& x
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
: X0 g9 Z- ^& F5 I) \! G. g1 c$ Tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
) d* L! s7 m* g2 a- g The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
. _ [+ }+ U! l8 K+ Uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
A$ y- ^0 c9 Nhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. {. b# Z3 J+ M4 ?0 r0 O( s
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, X+ c! u: [" n7 t5 w/ o t/ m1 fstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ C( c6 p6 `1 `' zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' Q* Z' G" H3 ~3 D0 N According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 A- P$ S6 \6 G- }, Hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- W) ^/ a1 j2 _5 }$ ^% g- qthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, K! s" Q& O% h; nhistorically depressed levels.
3 I. V# B6 h1 T Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
/ y1 c* H; Y9 ^* Q1 l. }( j& vof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ \+ j$ U" \/ l5 b U
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 o6 N6 P# f: ?. ]1 u# N. nhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! B: |; b( k0 Z( k; R
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
- p4 x- E1 Q, j" e0 pmonths ahead," added Hogue.
5 \8 ]. }! D9 Z d; B. h5 K0 ` r1 T RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 f6 h) h& {% \/ q9 ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 A$ M9 Q% ^- E, z- W" L
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 @$ A0 E: a; ~& S- p
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
& J& [' L, _5 j& ^+ [6 aa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these- w5 x2 e& ?5 L. U- W2 {4 u
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 a3 V+ ?$ [" T2 _) O `* Otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.. B; q7 f" f' u' y: w" ?
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is9 A' U$ S, Y9 `: s" T
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property, J2 Z% t; S+ w+ y9 y9 W+ G
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
' c% A- n c5 S6 S1 i, Yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* v7 Y& D9 T1 c9 \4 E2 D. E7 h
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ j/ Y; z$ J! o6 E+ `2 l& @" [) q) j
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, w: t3 ?+ V" c/ I0 n: y2 ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50' I3 D3 \% |3 \; w9 L, {
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
7 g! |+ K% r, y% o& W7 c% l% t6 m1 c+ }
<<
3 @& q- Y) F; H, v! V0 `5 q Highlights from across Canada:- A$ X0 E3 a+ U. w7 H- E
# ~: I- e% C8 r" L% ~ p" P- I9 L: u, M - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 x3 ?/ [2 q, k! P9 ^8 Y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; h3 o7 O; ~$ x8 R; _ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ {( C Z/ a- H2 X% @- ^
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: V l9 _) u" [3 I; J since about the middle of 2007.
8 C' B5 R. z% r. b, y8 \" ^" c5 \ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 d' l; g% V6 Y, V frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 A' a5 y! v% G& q7 N/ @% q
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 m$ Y, r: u8 N2 ~
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, W! n) D0 p" j& P+ K7 d$ k poor affordability levels.2 o8 j7 n: w! t7 ~( N
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the4 c8 K% g( o8 @8 a3 }
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and: ?. v D8 T+ d/ N
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 I% k! A0 {1 V Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to% ?5 B# Y) X: l* N1 s- ^1 Q
minimize any downside risks.
! x! n: J: A& Y! }% @' _7 ~" q% } - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 N8 n$ K# [' Y& J9 m conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, Y1 c) }" U: v2 d1 b9 q2 n3 v unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early i. _/ l5 F4 t; ]- [
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
/ l0 m, O- n* d% ^1 W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
9 B5 J: E8 L0 y6 t - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in+ k" Q4 q/ E+ X- n# g% B
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
w; g8 i4 {, Z3 V' {$ c. H1 _, p3 a far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
. o2 E1 a3 q$ E/ q; }1 \; ^ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
- l9 K& k( v( ?( F( I ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 e4 [) p" i' I
modestly in recent years.
; W% L% }9 M" E) @9 G - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% d+ [. \3 `) H0 f- b* f) \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# {. c0 r) t9 ]2 ?4 W, Z spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
9 A! K2 Z6 L* z) |6 \ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
) u- x( l2 N. a5 w: k, w following two years of deterioration.
7 `/ [8 j) b& R* [/ n8 }5 Z: `" j >> |
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