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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 Z# k% Q' q5 m5 g; W1 g1 R$ ]
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
0 }1 \: p! A. U! dmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive \3 e4 n+ ^- \ }, q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# s* C9 h& X0 ]" M6 ~' j7 p
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& o E" {' A( t e: l
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 ]+ x* p6 w, R. _7 `$ z; V$ ^said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- \* V! U% S- _6 F& ~7 M
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ H3 H; C+ c d* Gmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 A+ H4 D" H7 Q; H& z/ u RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ f6 l! w8 Z( V% k. b5 M P' C
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
1 v% @- o- R0 T& cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 v+ Y: ^/ E0 ~; G2 W' d5 g5 C
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
, ^. E* l3 q: k: |6 e5 W7 R4 Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the; F8 d' R0 U+ d
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 w% N2 B8 j: y/ L3 T8 P7 whome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.0 J( z& ]; z+ g2 Y; b1 Y; |. r2 f, h
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. ]3 P+ }# `$ e1 _, j; \# S# s, A
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' [- n0 L2 A5 w9 n6 p1 r! Z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
% y; H, z$ k# x According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets* X9 C- m+ @4 U2 B
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in& Y- p+ U& ~5 k7 ^( K
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 V4 `- g8 c, U1 t4 Ghistorically depressed levels.
' q" U# ]4 g' h- ? Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost# d1 `# X! E! M' }4 m5 p
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House4 o \2 L7 G/ O( J$ y8 ~+ Q
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 a, a( q! M) t( C _( |, n- l( k9 fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- ~. Q d% N' ?/ uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the7 A; t5 ?5 w# ?! ]- m
months ahead," added Hogue.
2 c2 B" n6 _! R+ }/ A RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
0 Q) d" R$ o. a" i7 lcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
& L, }; R1 T' U, r% V6 ?3 H; k42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.4 p" ]5 l8 P1 V" r
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- w7 U2 [, ^ [3 }* o! e0 B! La broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these. K6 T. n; c$ G
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only4 r. T/ D& E) ?. t! F3 F" _7 c
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.8 D) J, U3 E) S
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
( S2 T$ o/ g8 }4 n" m% K+ Kbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ }7 _7 b7 @0 U6 m6 b
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 `# N5 p; z+ q( a) k! r- k
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ ?' }. {/ h) b( v0 w
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.) E/ u6 l; B. _ Z! d
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: u" @, T: s& r# b* V
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# n1 r _* g _- Q
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ E! M1 y7 \/ h% u0 \$ p6 }6 G i! V; Y& t E6 K
<<
3 ^) w/ q! `: \9 t- Z4 C Highlights from across Canada:+ J% C! Z, @ K) z0 H
8 ^% Y* @+ M. h" ]4 W - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
0 C3 {* N$ K% e! w intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; y# Y; ]' U) W! b9 h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
3 e. x: i- X2 S8 | only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. }) s/ N: q& H2 O
since about the middle of 2007.
9 _: a q8 C3 g7 ~ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& V; [5 D, v' ]9 f! y; }
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 [; P- Z+ ]0 o }# L
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still# q& Q" s7 X c/ X" X; }. b
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
# }/ s N" D* c; g$ K* D poor affordability levels.
E+ P* A8 b, M& o/ h - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 L8 S" J4 [0 z% b; ]- G9 B: ]
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. u3 {( q6 q+ L8 ^% }) Z, y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
* @9 q7 ?6 ] B3 z8 M/ i" U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
' e0 h0 F! n6 X% ]( Y( @ minimize any downside risks.
( j5 }2 i+ v% @8 @% D8 q8 F - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market9 l- }+ ]9 G9 B) Y+ M' i% L
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
2 E% Y( J6 n' Q, g; m' x unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early" W1 S8 u# u* l3 l& f
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly" j0 {, S# \/ K9 e, `; n
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 ~3 a* E! i" b; c
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) u" {+ U _, X- _( o5 w Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' D+ R1 G8 y' J5 c; v F; m! W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: _# f+ R, b: b# t' J1 J
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be: g1 ~8 p" e9 z! A3 t
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only# o$ W% V3 J* W* f( @: P$ M
modestly in recent years.
5 M" t7 l& L( S& b - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 p( k0 I9 _' g
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( e8 v6 ^) R8 R7 X3 n& Z. R spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward3 Z, u- F# |8 D+ V* k2 F+ }7 }$ t4 N
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
' Y0 E1 V( P+ E6 B' B; d; r following two years of deterioration.' h5 `) R! o1 d5 F, k! m, }
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