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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ) U# L- K) o8 G( H: n% l. \0 |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 h3 X0 ]; J: g1 Cmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& C) d* i. H& O4 N; igains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 O& T& @( Z* M b' B9 Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. s& t; j. g: k5 d+ e
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", d5 F. n$ T' i
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is/ f8 [, v, [1 Y2 [* Z! i% f
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" P, v6 h0 s2 l) \- D# j" ]measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 B6 N. K% ?% {4 i, U, i, {
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is) Y) [% O! O; P) z7 l `
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' f% x' ^. g- P! k' v
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; P7 b' ?% \% Tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; X2 K: W8 U2 T The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 L/ ]9 z$ C3 Bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 C: V5 b0 O! Y* ?# b! F) A. {1 W' ?home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
5 w' }. H g* |- @9 a5 OAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
. u9 \$ l7 @- zstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, m% b+ t' l5 p- [2 u6 Sthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( b- e( O$ m% B- v3 f7 K According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' v) M2 ]9 b; U0 Q& Smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in( K2 J, A; s9 @1 l# u8 H n
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 v4 I% p% _0 \historically depressed levels.5 N( t$ U( j: G/ C3 P7 `+ C5 v
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
; G' u, I1 I) q; w1 uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. ^ w Y7 L7 g8 F# Z6 l
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
* Q& K: q1 i4 ^- Y, Ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This. {9 M1 Z) z5 f7 @0 ]6 o
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
% x+ ?4 t+ N4 v5 G* T# r& rmonths ahead," added Hogue.! G( ]: S x. G* J2 H
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 Z7 i) y/ }) Y: P7 U# {
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary T9 L) [6 o8 T! n
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
' [2 q9 @1 t+ q4 m: i4 \ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
, A% {! Z% P% fa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' ^6 ~6 U* O* M! p3 {" _# T1 j' |2 vcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only& |2 {+ T) `/ D9 D7 D# ]& e
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account./ d# W) A7 U) n# e' U
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; Z& C) Q- R: A3 n2 Ubased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property$ e# T- G8 t6 d- \5 Q! i* w
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, A# I* z- G3 c, z+ ?. m, O
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
4 g, j) I# Y: g) ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.' s9 [. m, B5 O
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
Y4 e' a1 ^7 Y& l: Y+ jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ M$ Q- S2 y3 m$ @$ n' ]/ D4 a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 Y, M4 w9 g9 m
% [: I6 X( L m2 Q2 M1 V <<3 i4 J* R e, t
Highlights from across Canada:( P0 j+ k+ x: T8 f0 q6 w# ?
! g. h* {' r; k a0 j& ] - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( Y, B" P( {, N' m intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; z& t4 [0 m; A& n* Q) h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 ?' E6 H- b5 \, \3 z; r' @ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. s( s+ j2 j x4 ^2 b since about the middle of 2007.3 g5 ^ O7 B# ^" Q( C9 Y0 y
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the- _; ^* l% Y/ n# J0 }! L0 F( h# c
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
r( x* P, o# p: C- M% y% X decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still) e m$ ~7 y% {) @2 O3 W
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
& R. V5 m' Q$ A" g) n. i: {4 j poor affordability levels., m3 B4 V. e/ i3 u2 q
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the, a$ G+ ], E" N/ _ p' F
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 _9 i" O0 r: ?% k4 l prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 V0 O& o' r) [" E Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to W& o# [" f1 y4 p
minimize any downside risks.3 E7 F- a9 m% B1 [! G
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market. U1 ^! n$ w7 I ]
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! ~* u5 y! x# N* H" G: s* L! E unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early0 ~5 x+ C' M: b# J8 Y( y( }) S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly9 D. f' Z. ?- M P/ Z* Y) w
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; b/ Z! N" |2 Y0 B T" P
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 U$ F/ ]% |8 S: A Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus& V7 y6 M: c3 Z* @
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
8 Y* \+ H( z D1 K7 U% l reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be4 C5 i4 S' ~' ?( E
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only7 ?2 Q7 c% }8 _/ w h7 V
modestly in recent years.# e# B+ d( T. O4 I H) Z B
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; o) X8 h3 `% a% ^ general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot( ?0 c7 }% `6 U8 }) n/ Y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
" x5 V/ m' S0 ^& l2 J, V price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability$ f* Z- F8 `( o1 G
following two years of deterioration.
) q/ f, e% B& h% o; s& O( u3 w* H >> |
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