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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " X# }2 y' e9 k) a* q" L+ p
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 [8 `2 a9 k# v- P& g1 s0 nmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ C- Z1 ?" C' i% Q. v$ E# V& R4 G O
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
* U% ^; c: ^; B% f9 h9 @according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.$ q. p" u, a. B: [9 h
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
5 I) F9 y/ O6 z2 ~( Bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is% P7 l8 d J# [4 u% X' Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
0 o \$ B' b# omeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") I, Z; k) b. R& [4 j/ g! l
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is' q% o! J1 B3 J
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: i2 i# D7 r) {) Y8 Y8 o( f. J. Kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have8 B- g2 ~8 ^* E
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
: n9 e( ?& ^, w The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 c& k) `8 u& V" Vproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" E; }* r$ L& R' c8 L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
# w: p! E& T$ I1 ~6 x$ XAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the ^) }3 Z$ K# E+ I; f# v
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
1 i2 M5 x% u7 }" [7 ?! p1 Vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ z+ D1 \4 U0 v: W4 Z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% D& e/ B0 R# Z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in7 @ z$ A7 z5 o, R r
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at2 y# _% e! ]: Z: k, H
historically depressed levels.
* X9 ]/ U j7 A- ^- W: t% O Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost {# h# w) x; n- C8 t
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ @+ r. }, Z1 Y) jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* T1 A* B7 J! {! _/ _: |7 Y: j
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
& K$ @2 X4 U1 d1 A9 ~4 Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& Z4 U; I0 Y' m) z; K1 P
months ahead," added Hogue.$ B! Z# Q; f, ]; [
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, @: X) B S7 { J1 q* X+ `cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
/ p/ t) N" l$ [* A. N; j5 f42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
7 X$ E' v) r2 `( O3 G4 i+ \& G+ I The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; [6 J1 e. u4 d/ ^1 j$ `- @
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 I1 H* [7 ~: r2 I" G4 Y& `cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 q5 |6 q+ G- B( e. D$ m
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., @# t& _0 c8 E) `' q( q) A, x& e9 I* g
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
5 c" d: J' R+ l1 I! jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. X: ~8 G9 D+ t0 M; Rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# M0 {! f6 h! O. G+ s- e( _/ cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard$ u) u; d! }; B3 V3 J+ ^) B6 t% @7 k) [2 k
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
, P1 ?; g# g) `3 c, }For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 T. C: d- ~2 K" i# S2 _costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 Q# B; U# J: P- V R3 sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
; R( o" }) w, Q5 c0 ^( e2 V
+ ?! n! X) h, m5 x <<* D' I7 i- m. k6 B& C8 l# \3 g# K! l
Highlights from across Canada:8 B9 _; l3 b2 j+ v- \8 i
' }( ^4 ?& G4 q. T* m - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
8 f) t: b8 z! O intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
8 t$ m6 J, H( F9 S0 S home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: p% b. U5 `1 l7 b0 w% _! ]4 P" _
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
6 I7 p9 o; a0 I* z since about the middle of 2007.
, G+ [* k& f- a% {( N/ C; e - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% @% j5 \. c& `! W( Z
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
( Q* {% h3 @: _' K) p$ j: G0 W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
7 @2 q7 C5 |6 ]/ M# d largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( ]$ ^9 N' U/ C- F o' z) E( f poor affordability levels.; c6 G* `# W7 l5 k6 G
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
2 P5 _+ ]& S7 a- E6 T q vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
) L. s# _9 e6 i4 |" d prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.( {. ^# }- t) L. t+ } z
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# L2 d4 q" |0 _/ e$ C, K minimize any downside risks.7 _/ \) q E- ^1 ^
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market; r7 @% y' P" I7 |! X8 t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is3 z) B3 k( j$ D% Y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# t2 `# L! v4 {# z 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly( G* {$ ^5 F1 U; J$ ?' J4 O
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.4 y0 Z( b- y Q) o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
. E7 D! ~" p5 Y1 e' W. u1 l9 J5 q# m) @ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus4 d: ~* g' s/ L2 h- Q
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up% Y% Q/ \) }2 Z3 k* v) r
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
$ K# l+ T X3 n- {' o8 q! i) J1 M4 s, p ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only$ C6 Y( j- E0 S0 g# B7 _
modestly in recent years.9 u1 h5 K* r) E; s8 e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the. v# Y/ N% c- {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; e: U8 _# y" I' s" f spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
" K2 j9 t$ V# {' R$ p price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
% F/ h3 s% e; h% z0 X( b, ` following two years of deterioration.& C( J/ q" M& }5 { z
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