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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; I( o' n2 c9 p' V) {) V1 D- |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
% j) r8 {7 [6 Y2 ]8 }; M k, P9 vmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
+ E' S3 d7 k& l( q+ Egains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,! b1 G! ]5 @1 ?1 c9 a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
2 n6 j& w' J, d3 P "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", b1 [: c5 X# m$ `! |
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! \, E4 w" K8 S% W& u( V( \# D. L+ I; V4 Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% \$ F' Z$ b0 U2 p) d% mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
* V1 @0 ]: B* E RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is, p+ l7 K4 y' J) s, H3 h/ [
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ S( e- @. @3 E/ {* j9 d( Rwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
$ K- C/ `4 a! t) k* ~0 G0 O) d; ]- jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 }. U" |2 s) H. O The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
4 n: b0 t( X* q7 Fproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a- b4 `' Z/ h5 h3 Q- s- M( c
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
, x( q2 Q2 F# N/ n* \Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
, G1 g- P) }3 I$ }& ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, L8 N6 R0 a- w R0 e5 E6 c. D8 \9 R; Bthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- J1 |7 _2 h7 P& e Y
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 v5 g' q6 H7 `1 o O
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 |/ b+ k+ x& P/ {the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
0 e3 d, J% S2 D& U% H2 Phistorically depressed levels., p' B( `5 P, M* @# Y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 J& y/ h. O4 q2 Xof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: d! m6 q4 W" ^% y$ l
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 P, ^4 a0 A9 d. ^ ^) R
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
" ~( ~3 t0 W8 S( O: s0 Y8 _enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 u- n$ j* ^2 b5 jmonths ahead," added Hogue.
+ Y0 b) l& B% N2 L. p RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 q/ ]5 W( c: g& a/ E: m7 X1 bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 w0 Q; L# E" A5 W+ _$ B: b' U
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
- ^$ w& U A8 }4 o6 x+ X The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ D+ s1 s; G+ x- _ Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these* a9 r; p) g7 d4 z1 n
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; Y/ I q& o: ?" b! G2 ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) i+ f# a) a4 H. F The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 p5 d9 t" I+ H! B0 S2 S
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
_" J) P& h7 @' V+ G5 wbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 M3 b G) d9 r: R' Tincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
]. |9 s9 o4 wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
3 c, H7 E5 c1 ]+ ^For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
6 C- w5 F/ y$ e4 o! |1 k. a0 gcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 e# x& z* `% N; [; ]
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.! _* s+ R% P( p1 ]# X- X! D
7 Q5 w' O9 V' e$ u- Z+ Q, T <<
* x8 |+ K2 U6 d/ [- N Highlights from across Canada:
; R% Y+ ?$ b4 z) e( j, _* m3 \5 r$ D& n, C
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; v7 R; y0 Z- d4 Q/ F$ O
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
$ F* c3 o9 T8 h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. K7 f6 V' [; i+ z Y* x0 j only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
f/ i: ?% p1 o* U0 t7 { since about the middle of 2007.
h; m. r. e$ O8 e. n2 l0 L - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: M/ a* a6 [8 h8 ]" I; o3 Q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to% C* c& S8 ~" b
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 J ]* C) Y( ?( [, x/ | largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely V2 z. ?+ P& O) S
poor affordability levels.
' l# Q: k) J, o - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
# K" y- _9 ?8 {& M# F: T0 [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
0 L: T/ N# y4 u+ S% y, m/ [7 [ prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." J2 u4 W3 J( x2 w2 j2 i! l
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
0 K7 x. S3 h& r/ F minimize any downside risks.6 ^! g0 y$ l3 j" e5 f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market J- t+ ?8 j7 e9 X: R7 \
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
/ _! J: K' I( Q( f7 P, i: ?! x5 m unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early, v* F5 Z) v2 g6 j, t5 q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 |; ]. G7 i: f4 I1 e
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 v) {- U* A5 W' {. V6 d - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" T/ Y" k8 j* ^( x
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 X5 i9 W& X6 G far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
- D: V: Y: N: d$ t+ F5 W# X. g* E reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be' ], Q1 ~2 _) l! o0 I: t
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only/ N' ^, i0 @1 T0 k9 x( O1 z
modestly in recent years.
% \7 c. b' V9 S, j$ \" Z0 s6 v - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
+ B# |: d# Y9 W) J* H7 _$ Z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) J5 X4 ^9 R. n- G! l" Q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward# L6 m8 y. N% }8 U& o- A, k, o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! ]8 N$ G+ k" o2 a( ]
following two years of deterioration.
5 C# `( z" X( N7 \ >> |
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