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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ) s) |' v8 T$ W
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the; U8 z' N. W3 v$ {
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
% q: i$ z/ s" ^& K0 ]gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 k5 i/ ^1 O% }6 l1 ]3 ]: @; Faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.8 A9 z4 L! p% M9 H0 K
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ M# Y2 C( [3 M; a* Y9 L9 |" Ksaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 O1 U A+ o3 ?1 Z2 {5 q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; x" ~9 K8 z( r* Z. q" M" X5 Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 s+ M# |/ N- O1 S# @9 I: h4 G6 O; h
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 W& V8 g( J' m% F0 `
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: T1 p2 ]$ ~, N+ p6 Y4 @which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
% ^ F+ \7 q4 ~/ Osustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 S# }0 M) V/ N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the6 V% V1 C5 i" E9 ~( q
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a3 f3 K! _7 }% _/ P }) b7 M9 {
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 C1 v5 F' i$ n
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 H& y% a5 N. c+ H1 }; Z7 [standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& |. M+ I1 y* u+ Ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% l% {2 [8 D+ k9 f' ?3 f
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
, X& I1 ?4 |- Y* x4 Q4 tmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in7 b- F5 G3 ?4 y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
/ C: C- @8 X" @" O) G% Yhistorically depressed levels.& W5 f" ^( f2 G8 k. h2 N6 n
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 t; I* Y" r6 V: P; o1 Mof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
& H# g2 v4 h6 J$ x/ D6 bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" d% ^" m) c+ w5 x' @
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
5 Q& w( z6 D( b1 _enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: R0 n" i! _( r2 [months ahead," added Hogue.* I# T% f# R, ^5 B
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
s' d% l. Q: u! o1 {' Ycities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary2 B9 p$ D q' q! N8 b6 k
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 E3 |4 N$ A! D
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for+ j7 @( b0 ]- }( @# S5 G$ A
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these e/ `; b3 T, p j& X0 f
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
- F- B- V% T4 n utakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.0 F- v9 y: x) _( V
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; @. j' q8 X1 }' ~& G" ~based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property3 y' ~ ~/ ^. h1 i; ]: Q/ }
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented% N& u9 j1 t! U, o7 w3 c5 ` Q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' e# s: C1 V; u: j& wcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& K Z$ [2 ?- o$ F& n/ H
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
: }0 o5 q. x0 N: G4 I. \costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# ^' f m3 k: X" i, ?% s+ I; L
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 q4 k& E/ t. h' ]+ f& y; u/ S3 `
! _3 _0 I& G( Y* u <<
/ d. h, K! x* d2 k& T; k Highlights from across Canada:
8 X: s3 {# I* x: _8 S4 h9 V5 l
; p* ?. e0 a6 f$ e - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& ~" Z4 G2 H% T9 `, Z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing3 d5 Q% T2 ?" M$ U) ?+ }
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 {: w0 {/ j! A2 R( {' v$ q0 M( ^: o( N only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track. \4 M7 n' I1 P# l& z$ D, Q9 |2 w. N
since about the middle of 2007.
' r; l. I. b% N7 T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" f8 h/ C6 ]6 X5 \* [! O
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to8 J) H3 Q/ B# D% p% z0 E' F2 t& a
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. @3 b |) Z& a: z0 s; E
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" Y- }2 @4 v' K poor affordability levels.% r' l* f8 P+ D; T
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
c: N7 e2 F; R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" ^) w0 ^( C6 H2 S+ n3 N prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 r. K# J( q- v5 `9 L* L
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% O1 U( _! h# I/ t minimize any downside risks.
+ ]5 i- f% ?5 ^. t9 r0 o - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
5 q+ P) o: A5 ]" x7 |9 I2 O7 N) l conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 e! T3 T6 w) q3 k unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early }) l6 P9 j! \
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 i. ~& e6 E+ l: G being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.* h& g( V/ |; k; m
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
: \+ p/ M0 v+ a Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 p( H3 p. ?0 {/ m2 E& w far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
% D4 u; H5 Z$ u. i6 `" c reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be2 I! d5 c' x# k: K# E
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
/ y% J/ \9 H5 G5 q: H" n$ v9 { modestly in recent years.$ e |9 C+ \7 ?9 |* b! ?% B
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the3 Q# k4 ?, v1 G) @) z
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 z( a* j5 w1 k
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 b2 z- C. g7 X+ _& A9 f: H0 q
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability/ T& J5 c# O/ u' t# t: k
following two years of deterioration., {/ k' g) v! K2 w& F( X
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