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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
! A# N. k- i' Q- _; S ] Y# F4 T) E1 O TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the/ G, Y9 ~% t; v& R4 a, z. a: ?% Q. f) V
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive8 \) K% z" f: C- |; X# L$ b
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
0 P+ o4 h) Y# r6 ]4 uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.4 x' N) X8 W9 s* t/ n
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
$ F# V) V% \$ {( k" H; tsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ Y( U4 M( [; z7 e- P, Y3 dimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability9 S `6 |/ _' x2 l% n8 b
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
# N: I0 [/ c! @ D, F7 Y! { RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is3 c" u1 C, U" z0 }
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,: y6 P; g$ r* L9 w! t- }. S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have" l" s/ p8 V1 s" Y# \) V3 W
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.% e7 b4 W' p U2 J9 X! E- K
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# t3 Y$ x" K3 @( N6 C
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ k$ x# g9 |4 [6 B) N; u6 M0 r' Thome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' O+ r% N; ]+ E2 q% r6 c! M6 O
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& G. f$ _( ~' E6 n- T& qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
' D" h. F' L: i J' B( \$ Othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 k2 W/ G2 q5 l3 Z R2 U8 z2 X According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
l+ e* r- n/ K) r0 W2 `may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 V8 e% E3 T: @, X) \- n
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at' A+ E( V+ z* [0 J0 G$ T
historically depressed levels.) r+ ^% o) X0 l+ r* N5 v& P& D
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
3 Q* U' B1 F# L# _6 Jof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
# J, p* B( R6 lprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 S" y- }; h3 _
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This: x3 V9 R: J4 W3 l! G9 f' L
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
: r9 \. @; m( A l0 Tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
$ x$ j! Y- q1 J8 G3 q9 s: H2 U RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ j: y) ]: J$ Z* Wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 Y1 G! k/ \3 O' g3 z8 y! l42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
: v9 l% Y& W% }" @- b: a3 ]1 W; { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
2 V- g4 s4 h. k* O, n* x d* Qa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 j+ C1 F# S0 D7 R% kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only K& N: g! W- P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
4 R8 x# {! ^, \$ a/ a+ R- x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is* A7 z/ @# u0 u+ o
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
3 v G. Z* n$ Nbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented, a! t( Z6 k7 [9 N
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# `* s1 K1 o2 W6 B9 Fcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.2 f" i" p6 t+ q" U" z4 o
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
* ?6 e- c! P a( {' K0 I4 f6 ?costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" b6 @/ c( Z% \+ J) k$ S$ ]per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' \: S7 V9 T% _4 R
6 K9 U K& S, T- s% ?/ s3 _7 x: h6 V" F
<<8 I9 L$ Z% q3 }" x' y
Highlights from across Canada:; [% l' F1 t% k* H) ^7 W; K
; b5 q4 z' [, J9 A - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 M1 ]6 `. t" N. j4 c
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. J! Z3 a# S" n( a0 }- ^ home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound( U9 j( G, ?$ N/ F' x* R
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
2 ~( w8 X3 m, {: c since about the middle of 2007.& \; t+ t) C2 c2 O7 q5 g
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ o: W' w0 ?$ L% {* u1 a7 T frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ V" f5 ?5 j" P4 R decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still3 q; |2 N; w& ^* `
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ U) a& T; @ y
poor affordability levels.8 M+ |: z9 v0 d5 g) @
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 Y9 U! z( [" K3 f8 k* l
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and; w8 c) {3 W! v/ _8 S& f6 B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
+ t2 [' D4 G5 t& F7 O# Y- a* j& ^ Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: k6 N' q1 j6 J- v+ {1 d* D4 T# A minimize any downside risks.
( W0 j" y' [% g/ W - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
( P& x/ W: l: ?" l& h) N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is# ~# h- K9 s( N* _9 ~
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' V6 R6 ^, V. U; \ l 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly3 O2 U" r% h; I+ ^9 ]
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, e1 ]% r- A, E; ] - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
0 P) R1 j4 W6 U( r! R, ^ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus+ o+ g: a: }3 o+ ^2 o0 Y( }
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up0 A9 X# |5 Z' R S* M0 j) F" E
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: ^7 m5 W5 t* O ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. D$ ]4 ]* ]' ?' o6 t' b# U
modestly in recent years.
! H/ W A" R* T$ x: ^ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the2 Y* Q0 }5 e+ S2 K& F
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& P1 r6 P2 p% V. H1 ?$ w spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
: L x% M4 j. R$ T* b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability: X8 P, E5 D# V1 u9 ]
following two years of deterioration.
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