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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( ]+ Z% D+ f& X g9 P# C; e
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# Z% X! d1 Z9 w5 K, b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
& _2 b5 I1 K- J3 t* Vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,1 h/ J5 a" j- q
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. v2 p; A% G: M+ `" |4 J
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"# B9 N7 z0 A) P( E' h& E" b4 s
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 B# {1 N0 [5 |3 k; S
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. I, t) G) F5 I5 d/ g6 f. ^9 G
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
0 S+ C1 n& U4 B8 H% D RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
6 N, e% x+ f' fworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,1 W' L# i) z$ U T6 z# w- E$ a
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, H b4 k. h9 csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
( @, f0 w1 Q2 z1 S7 b The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% a' J$ w4 W3 X: d3 u; v1 K8 [! Y" u, i' uproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( Y0 f6 c8 Q2 n! O; O" j- Hhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.2 }# |2 ~# m3 _' a0 x; X! s: N
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the' y- d) a9 {1 a( C' w% N5 S, g
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ ]( f" [6 t! a# t3 L0 `, D3 Ithe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
" h- h# e6 k3 i; t According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: z; y; H$ ], o- x& w, n
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* r$ E' u. |7 F1 `6 rthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 t1 x' a' a1 Whistorically depressed levels.( P. l9 S& g, r4 y
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 [! R: @4 G" d
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: m# k7 i1 a$ Z- [, x' w
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the$ ~' t5 J8 q* N! l
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: w: D& c8 @- l* U( z" q- \( Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 M P* h2 T* D: A- ~! G
months ahead," added Hogue.5 c* M/ P, g4 t. _
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
6 H8 ^+ z) I' wcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 ]6 g! e9 k& Z+ A4 Y# I42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.- y2 d; z `" J9 m7 f7 Q5 y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ R& l) s( V2 j8 E8 H: |a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 G0 \9 Q E. ]$ l1 N4 A, b+ ^cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
, z4 P( ]6 P/ a' ^ ktakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! D2 g+ s1 A" f2 V! G8 J The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is% K" \" V* b' }* l; [9 v4 ]7 d1 T
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
% ^. o5 [& B( Y( Q, N1 \benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
2 P% ~8 H, v% D# H) P$ N, rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, x: i$ n1 q: o0 S! f
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
& t5 x7 d4 Z# M; i6 {( W$ \' VFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership6 z2 ~ c5 ?; _& }' F( K" @
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( U) B0 f5 c) d0 r! n
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
* B" f X- J. \# W9 f8 W& p' {" l+ @3 y0 q' ^* R( U$ D$ R
<<
0 d- U1 } }% y, |7 A. { Highlights from across Canada:! t" U" n* K, y. f; F' ]5 X
: u; O3 } e9 }& Z
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has" @' [/ N* M' t2 f! B" C
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; y9 r+ F, {+ I" x5 r% a7 Z) x home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound6 d. c# l1 w! x. {0 q* j& n
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 Z8 D" E) P8 G# \0 e0 b3 _ since about the middle of 2007.* W! J0 T3 U4 @: G/ l z3 j
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# @8 p5 i h5 c0 D3 d9 E2 v
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 ]3 M: [2 r' q9 C! [6 I
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still/ H. Y) R. a* x# Y. S
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely. i0 W/ D8 W6 ?" L8 V5 `. u5 J5 a% D
poor affordability levels.
) N0 i% @! ?5 \9 Q. Q - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 t& ` Y9 R+ {! p$ e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 c5 S( _3 j9 V prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 T j4 T9 E! Z9 W" F. Q0 y6 e$ e
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to8 V" o& D# O2 n0 [
minimize any downside risks. [! i- z( ~5 Q {+ u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 O8 p7 e& Y: \0 a/ z conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 O U! W8 ]" a- U; f' X unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 s& Y8 j( v- y9 k 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly1 G$ S% e9 [! E7 v1 i: t2 l
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& S' ]0 M; q9 k! Y5 T) X) r - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in) b1 u M2 h; h* D0 E, `. ~
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; J) g" o' n" C* ` far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
, _1 @3 ]$ }- v; t3 V/ F- |8 ? reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be6 t7 A0 S3 ~; h
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ M0 g' D) b; @/ w9 g1 X modestly in recent years.
- V& }1 G+ C3 Q, I# @. K# Y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 `) @& s7 {4 J general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ \" ~& T1 {4 S3 i
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward2 ?9 P# a L9 I+ X: M2 F
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 B5 U) Q$ B2 h8 _5 ]; S$ T following two years of deterioration.
7 ], {, ~) ^' x3 d& m- ~ >> |
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