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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ( P2 B) R' S# c$ W) t
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 ?6 g. n" U" M/ `middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) f1 w. W. G& a% Ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
+ s, f1 p9 ^0 J, e3 J/ ^" }according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% H4 V7 a: w# {0 S# g
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
F% B; `. X" O) z2 Csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is e1 A: L' l$ F$ n' a) g( N
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 y- Z4 J& j# ^9 m; F5 I2 B7 Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."* T, @3 w1 ?2 h7 Z- |
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
, f- p2 ]: ~4 D5 X: H: Z. Yworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 j; j; _6 n9 O. U" k4 X' \1 G
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have9 i/ x( l8 E' y8 }& _
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
0 z. e$ W) o& }4 V. Z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# c$ b5 d* U# n6 [0 p6 {1 h+ A oproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" C+ D% Y, A7 U6 z- u& Y& }, w
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.- Q8 j8 M! B0 N$ ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 Y* g8 L* H; F0 E3 \standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and$ o0 C) D8 @+ v" k
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.4 X; w: o5 U7 V) b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 e% P. M+ W& Q, o" p' h$ g( P
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, o6 ]: y( e1 u+ Qthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 r; ]0 B2 c O7 h0 i1 Vhistorically depressed levels.
4 N3 O; \( k- K. o Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% k4 ?0 x1 t9 A+ s {of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* u. G' J2 c/ U9 A, S Jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the# l) O! w( K n9 d8 Y7 A/ O9 g6 k5 ^
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This" W3 `& F% L+ e8 r: V" u
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
+ H% ^6 h4 A: v- bmonths ahead," added Hogue.
. _# d$ E) s# H9 \ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
: I% w0 `9 E/ S1 C' f4 @0 L+ g. Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- Y: w+ P5 t, C$ U* a
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: O: x0 ?% s/ e
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ p& N t3 l4 U9 R% V. Xa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these; E. g7 y9 l1 [# Y7 l* J* f
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only8 g: F0 c4 U& u1 h) \
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
8 k9 V( u, e& s* j6 E( O The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
) k1 m3 W8 A6 w2 G& ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property% Z5 z, s% |1 S+ j9 n8 s
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ o8 b( Y7 Z& m9 M- h
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. p m( w5 I, m
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.# Q2 K7 a3 p# O$ X# \0 w
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 m" W) s8 @$ u$ a
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
1 K7 `) V4 F# A' Xper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
4 m0 E4 n/ g" i2 L) n' K- M
+ E* }( x& `* i+ p7 ]8 @ <<5 N1 P/ Q4 y' R: b% N' l; { O) @, K
Highlights from across Canada:
6 ~. ~- z( M" G! G( |$ L1 E
# u, e& k% s3 m1 m! T - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has' T! ]' u) @% T! _2 }
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
; M1 M' {; m5 C" Y, V) c6 B: I home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' N1 `* ?# a+ ? only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 t9 B% t; ^+ y9 x6 d, n& _( k
since about the middle of 2007." Y+ }0 E( W# Q2 n* d5 G
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the7 h9 x( L7 g! ]# w9 P1 _8 ]5 D* K5 r
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to# T2 l: j8 h+ T- q, z, i: U% F
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 O$ c% j" F$ E7 y( n3 ^! R9 S( j
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
" M0 _* ~2 b' n' U poor affordability levels.( x; F. J) z0 n! |
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
* m/ q- `( R5 T6 a$ u `' L3 Q vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 ~. B/ m, G: S. M0 M* c' z6 @; T prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
J( G0 U$ B3 N+ ?# p Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
+ x8 i- y! K; r4 l2 ^ minimize any downside risks.
* r* d* p& H, S6 p+ B( r" ] - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market: l5 f4 T# s$ Q, t
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% \4 B2 i1 X* d& @7 r unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' I1 d- N# M3 }# f. J# `2 {6 X 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly0 Y2 r% K6 y, `4 x3 n/ n, x
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 d( l1 s$ W9 J4 L/ I9 V% W - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in1 b9 M* C! j* U) g1 U; I
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 y3 W0 i; ]$ S5 L4 R" W far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ W" |7 p& B: u reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# D9 y, Z; b2 a ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. o8 j" K5 q K1 |; A9 B+ q4 w
modestly in recent years.7 i9 E, c' Y I5 R* T
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
0 S6 Z3 B+ |7 V general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ {) |* u/ Q: h spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward( l, Y6 L. Q7 n+ Q! a- b9 ]
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, I" ?5 e) m, E8 m
following two years of deterioration.0 c* c# F0 T3 q% U. p, K
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