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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 2 f, ]1 h; z# K8 V8 n6 h; I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the+ W5 D; w- y/ g1 F1 e# `- r
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# a$ b4 J7 z5 ~$ b9 b1 qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* U) J# o8 c2 n9 \# H; b# O3 | T
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ @$ a2 t4 Y0 o, z3 `/ Y% G$ W "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( Y" P! a. c6 i& msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 u7 Z5 x5 i) l( ?" k
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
% z1 J( Y, b6 d$ m2 ~( ?% i0 Qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."6 P' v! T+ I4 i5 }# E+ s+ a, {
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
8 F4 c6 ~: _0 |9 qworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 ~/ D* S: K! Z! f3 ?/ X
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 L; E6 h6 E! m% Z, ^
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.. t' z c0 T, N: l- r
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the$ Y; n4 L3 w. A. [+ w5 M
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! p0 Z- [4 [& o1 E; K5 b
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008./ V+ `& g& N9 ^# ]* y# ?9 l
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
5 j. ^7 c! n8 j! ystandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and% |3 w: h* g+ f
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
4 p1 {) @) P$ E2 M& p3 z- V According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% ^# S# i% t3 h
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 v8 Z u" g, w, M
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# z" Q9 S+ q D$ Y& o0 }
historically depressed levels.
; x+ m& |* q- o$ e' S: K# U4 q* F Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) E9 B* O; \; t
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. g8 H. {4 I4 Z, @
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the) }; l9 x: ?! I) S- D4 }+ i! P# i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ _" N2 y/ X) m% [6 L( M* x! p
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, E) ?8 [/ i9 c6 s( @1 [
months ahead," added Hogue.
) m! K0 i' a1 M" Q l: g RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 N# h7 O1 L' R5 G4 @6 t+ f5 U: ^
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
) q- {7 c2 @. n6 X$ _: O' y42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
* n* z/ G1 M! d4 ^ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for. J- `- n5 j) o7 K3 d8 V
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these, t p: i1 |: l& h' q3 n. h" E% W% W
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only7 ?2 N r, f$ h$ u4 c
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account." h& B# k9 M. x! @* C: f: i
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 k, \2 z( K0 k
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
$ p6 W `* l3 [/ |# ^: v0 @! qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 A6 w' M3 t% L; f6 y
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
) A' o* o/ Z& l4 p4 [$ W! H0 e; z! s% T0 Tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
c7 y$ |1 k2 {8 ?, V1 H! \For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! j. x5 _& I$ n, [1 g( B
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 A9 t x Y$ i
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& I4 v. d( _! W, W/ k0 _/ X. X3 n& c' V$ m1 G! |8 ^+ I1 l' R
<<* M" D2 J) R5 I7 f, ~/ e- i& m
Highlights from across Canada:. A0 f3 R+ y/ w8 d
9 Y$ l* ^; S$ p. p3 j! { - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has) n7 i* R. u, v# I( z. b9 l
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, U! K6 _( w1 O# z' z
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound! {( M* J: T; e7 X* Z5 \' S" L4 {
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 ]3 K# t( D# P m4 b; A, \
since about the middle of 2007.
6 x3 r. L0 M: E) y* C; O - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the5 o Z5 H3 F4 G# x3 H/ S
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
+ |/ v: @3 x; x+ k3 k5 l decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
) V' n& U" X* V' d: U# B1 k6 ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( ?' P% D; p/ j
poor affordability levels.+ c8 }% W8 _; `6 a x: u- ]) j2 r9 E
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the9 b9 s6 F& y) K* ^
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
" _ P- C2 D4 h prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" {6 w# D* P6 ?* ~* A: w7 B6 ^/ B Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
. P$ @( r2 i: x( l; X minimize any downside risks.0 D) x9 o: H( @4 _* r/ a
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market# f% g, s5 W" ^8 C- f/ P8 c0 y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, C3 W+ L& x9 b+ ?- X! J* t unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: K3 I- O' s% h( K1 I 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ S) J. R1 X4 f+ J4 _. i being restored to levels closer to long-term averages." k) D( T: Y# p0 v) Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- U' n5 }3 t* r. A3 M( m Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
2 X$ S. h: r* Q* q far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
4 N! m4 i2 f# B- x: c reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& Z$ o1 g- I- T( h' n
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only* [' E, B# J3 O6 V% g1 ~
modestly in recent years.
5 h3 E r$ P2 n3 k w# ~ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
4 f+ X. n) l' F0 O1 u general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot0 O' g4 A2 \6 A
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward8 y! w1 w4 |# }' J2 V2 p! S, y# N
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ i; v \: K3 N' [6 U
following two years of deterioration.
0 O% w' I! j. a1 Y. `8 m >> |
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