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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 6 b+ C: Z" l5 j# o2 a* [
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 C$ ^( i$ u1 j# w" [middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& T! V4 i/ O: Z" D+ Q
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 D- \" C: ] ^+ T1 B& ~0 e1 ?
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
1 ^8 i7 }$ }2 q( {, O1 P; T; j "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
* b# {+ F8 J* ]( h* K) V7 c# lsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
F) H0 ?) S! v: eimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 \& b r* t! q5 r0 y( U) c& U1 tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."5 c: p& d& S/ _3 {, x* ^- `; h
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' [: N+ e- q9 x3 |' y) Aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
) m) g9 t& ?2 |7 s) [1 {8 K6 pwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
0 U) C$ y T# _5 Bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; {$ l' | n2 r+ m- H+ K: v( z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% w% \6 k4 w" c7 aproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 v# A G9 T/ v. K( K2 x; S3 rhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% k0 C- O, V. b, [
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 k. a+ U$ ]" j `
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and E2 R" O, j. Y. S
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ V- _# e( x, S* s1 ^; V
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ N) y# l- |$ Cmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
, l* n7 t" z( s1 ~/ N. X, @the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ a: h& y5 R0 a9 vhistorically depressed levels.
( m ?# D, M- X4 Z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& W m3 {. u$ ?2 l+ x" W, u6 B$ yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House3 d$ d1 R( A: Q# g# C
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
9 T9 C5 u$ ~6 `( t+ C1 M+ u& v- ihands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
! i4 m: ~" A4 F$ \4 Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the0 f$ L+ w! B( h& E- f
months ahead," added Hogue.
% p* R. p0 y5 `8 F! O( x7 y8 L RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest& R% h- V! r! M6 j9 P' t
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary, b+ g# k8 n1 s1 H. T) [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.: c0 |" J: e3 K. a2 R+ T
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ z$ g. ]9 x( B* G4 ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these3 {* X# t( P7 Z$ `) @
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# O5 d+ a9 h" \3 Y0 h8 g
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account. P$ `& F2 W m) k8 w
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) v* T: H( d+ A& v# I" n* X4 G
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property8 U5 O3 y% p1 d, A( Q; c+ c
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented+ _2 X1 g7 c" y: x& E4 N: W
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard5 F# ~- g% Q) g
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home., `5 `+ p1 ]& R u" Z4 ^ c
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
$ W' S' L7 @) T% L' S( [costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ e, }% i6 I9 i3 G2 J( {' i: qper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
# k& x! S8 p5 c J2 R. s" p
6 O/ E+ |' v8 @ b$ m1 b( \, s <<
+ h; J H7 B) Q9 h Highlights from across Canada:- y2 x$ j7 d) `! Q( l9 [
/ n3 t) L; T# _- m s( G& W$ f3 X" V
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* P5 n( d9 f5 y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( X7 W0 [! h7 c: v% n' W |( r
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* c# A$ r/ D y: g0 X only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: R9 E1 `2 U/ K. } since about the middle of 2007.
/ g2 A- ^9 z9 q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% M$ L2 U# l# D0 E: D
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
% X2 J3 M: f( O3 B I+ V decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still, n4 T. A& c+ i+ u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 b$ t$ o, w) x" s n7 V' i
poor affordability levels.8 }7 c( w% P0 D4 p
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 j) o4 u$ U' j6 m3 y( n+ L0 Y- P vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and8 a- o0 {8 D$ u3 b. U
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
& C5 t2 W2 C0 o Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ z& f$ b+ i* K8 |
minimize any downside risks.
& Y2 u* Y! A: F9 B' }2 l' ` - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 k7 D0 ?5 m; m1 E6 d
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! f3 g" v" X1 g- }7 ` unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 {' X* ^, C' g$ d4 X
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' v) U' x( M' e# k9 \( _ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
, @2 t$ h( T/ d5 p' R9 N - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in( f* O5 o' i) [1 M9 d- L8 L* s
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
5 D* F, ^1 j9 x6 ^! X far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up: S3 i/ T! S& S K: S$ w: z% |5 E
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; x$ Q# t+ G& @5 _ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: m7 x; M' O( Q9 x+ U modestly in recent years.* M( Q) J5 Y5 J" F
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; G1 ]2 A% m1 G3 Z7 } general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot$ {! e, U }' U% }/ y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
% e+ p/ N) s% }2 X/ Y price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" O) t5 R4 I6 @# [- z) o9 `# I following two years of deterioration.
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