本帖最后由 紫光 于 2010-11-3 21:39 编辑 - u3 w" V3 t) l2 k" `8 b* \3 y U& T9 o% ^6 l
The US dollar was under pressure following a slightly more aggressive QE than the markets had anticipated. The Federal Reserve announced they will purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next 8 months which comes out to about $75 billion per month. This is compared to forecasts of $500 billion over 6 months and is in addition to the roughly $35 billion per month in reinvestment purchases.% @( f3 K$ N8 V3 C( a
嘿嘿……美国准备印很多很多的钱,不过这个预期已经被PRICE IN了1个多月了。 6 k' y/ y0 Y( q( q8 w# X1 N4 [( ]现在股市标普为例面临1210-1220之间的阻力。" Q, A/ r. n# T5 H( z
参见我9月1号的帖子:http://www.edmontonchina.ca/view ... &extra=page%3D2 c1 Y, D( ?) Q! H3 U
从大势上看,突破是迟早的事情,但是我们应该注意一下市场今天都告诉了我们什么。 " _/ {3 r3 W$ {今天的市场风险资产以黄金为例,经历了大起大落。在消息出来之前,黄金自由落体般下跌了30块。而消息是more aggressive,但是黄金未能创出新高。 6 [5 b/ v0 v+ _1 I! t8 _" @今天早些时候出来的数据:4 O F k2 s% e+ p8 j
Economic data released earlier showed ADP employment was much better than the expected +20K with a print of +43K for October up from the prior month’s -2K (revised higher from -39K). September factory orders surprised to the upside rising by more than the forecast of +1.6% climbing +2.1% from the prior 0.0 and the October ISM non-manufacturing index advanced to 54.3 (cons. 53.5 prior 53.2). The ISM Chairman mentioned that the ‘slow growth’ indicated by the report is more sustainable than a fast pickup. ' c( s- m* n1 p9 H
股市在这些数据的配合下,仅仅小涨。1 Q1 E8 x0 O2 E# B) ^4 x
种种迹象都证明风险资产的上涨长期看还有大幅空间。 0 w8 |/ v! ` ` f短期看,OVERDONE。 9 R$ b& `6 v/ |& }' `: l1 g所以关注标普1210-1220的阻力位置。 ! [- m! w' F+ X4 c8 f8 S {+ r* M) W! H# K9 d C- y5 o6 Q
至于黄金,很清楚的3浪调整走势,目前是第三浪开始不久,不过不能越过1366。& X' N9 I, n& l" o1 c5 V; o D
因此可以考虑在1256.50卖出黄金,止损1267。目标大概1280-1285之间。图不知道为什么不能下载,抱歉。
回来务务正业,这次对大势的判断正确。这点很重要,因为如果大势正确,可以保证即使一单被止损,但是后面跟上的可以弥补。* W' T1 A* E& C9 N4 C
今天我关注了一下美元/加元。3 R$ C% L7 j+ d' R% l" S b. \& r
可以在目前位置1.0070买入。0 S8 Q: Y q2 c3 [, f0 J! L
日图双底已经做出。小时图在100小时移动平均做了一个Doji,从过去的经验看,要上涨的可能大于80% 。