 鲜花( 0)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士
* Y% ^; n! b* A3 q: P2 z
0 z* z$ q1 {$ {' v$ y
$ f3 W0 F+ z/ h. a/ Hhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197
/ c3 B& R+ j/ L; g# m% T5 y# ^# w& ^- [# S( v* Q
22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer! ~: `7 V4 d# N9 z: i
) v7 ~1 n9 T6 d4 d& G4 J) g
Science and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas
* `1 I. \$ j6 u% y2 y/ c: ~6 }' w7 C; @
A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers." I* N4 ^$ N( @3 E% R" T' t* ^
. b/ l' t5 P, b3 R7 N9 i |/ {% g
The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.
: D8 T! j+ n" N) u
2 E; f# f2 t6 C3 s7 i9 W: |The team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
. ]+ r( c0 m3 t/ g
4 [8 @! s5 B4 QThe result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
' ?6 b) Q0 |) f9 A! v: T8 b: C/ d" E! s
The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.4 A2 U' j5 W h9 O6 L! ~6 l( ^- t" ~
. q% o0 o- m6 @$ ZTheir means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.7 z5 E, E% k0 p# C& C: m
* f# b8 P$ }. l+ O" Q% G0 WOne of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.) T% ]' K% d" Z) O# {; t
5 l- C0 a1 S) B8 S" H9 a/ q! L! I
At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.
2 T# g9 x/ C/ k% F' L
/ _2 h! }' M/ d\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.8 v' s& R8 d1 s7 `# S* k8 D
* S$ r5 b. o7 P6 B4 F H
\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.& r% G0 d$ J8 m# B$ P) }
& E0 m. X2 i; b" P
\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"
0 d: }# g' w* J. T9 T. j; ]- }' J
# \5 i6 t: }2 y7 ~) _3 tDr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"" o# B+ U% n% `7 i3 ^
4 }3 I1 y4 l5 k. m6 @
The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.9 v6 O7 X4 V9 |. y+ f2 j7 r% Q
9 f% e2 y: l& r) N" `" ~They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
1 F3 }* G( G J7 o( k# W5 ~8 B ]" B0 d& U* \. _
And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.; ]- U2 J3 P7 d1 c3 X9 P
7 F' Q" ]" I+ s$ ^* w: G$ MHowever, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world. P: c* \3 L$ z
! E# b& N1 y0 {; e\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.. L5 o* }/ @& l1 n. O
; `) L* ~2 p1 d3 r% q0 F( U
However, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\".
5 q7 |4 J0 f9 h- }' X
( O( q9 T4 a; i9 }\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
( _) ?' A; X* [$ b* D: l- C3 j' ]+ h) F% r" @9 V
\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\" |
|