爱城的房市及应对策略

WST · 发表于 2006-5-7 20:26

爱城的房市及应对策略

个人看法，请批评

1。因以下原因爱城的房价将继续飚升。
1）得益于油价上涨，亚省经济法发展迅猛，建房速度落后于人口增长，导致供不应求。
2）很多建筑工人去油田挣大钱，导致建房工人奇缺。人工和建材涨价幅度很大。建筑商不得不提价来保持利润。今年来新房每月平均涨价2-3%。很多建筑商已Hold lots. 未来地价将涨2成左右。这些多可能加大新房升幅。
3）此前，抄房者占买房比例较小。由于近来房价涨幅大，必然有很多抄房者介入，推波助澜。
4）爱城房价尚未算泡沫，平均家庭收入和房价比不到4，远低于世界平均水平。至少还有3-4年可涨。
5）由于东西部发展的不平衡，中央银行不会大幅提高利息以抑制西部发展，这样房地产飚升未有有效制约。

2。以下现象值得注意。
1）目前爱城房市和05年初美国凤凰城相若。此后1年，凤凰城房价涨48%。
2）目前爱城房市和去年末卡城相若，现卡城地皮奇缺，某建筑商有800多人
on waiting list. Recently 61 lots were released, first come first service. If you want to hold you need to pay $10000 non-refundable deposit (Calgary herald, April 2）
3）旧房滞后于新房的涨幅。
4）同样的期房，近期完成较远期完成便宜很多。

3。对无房者的建议。
1）有计划买房者应尽快。不要再等。
2）应买现房为宜。
3）买和自己经济能力相称的房子。
4）考虑5%的首付。

4。对有房者的建议。
可考虑买1年后建成的期房，略高于目前的档次。如你目前的房子值30万，建1套36万新房。等新房建好后，你自己的房子已值36万。不花钱换1新房。那时你买的新房又值40多万了。

5。对投资者的建议。
如果你有勇气，智慧和眼光，这可能是致富的好机会。可用别人的和银行的钱生钱。但一定要有风险评估和控制。

FtMac1 · 发表于 2006-5-7 21:46

不错,分析的有道理.只是有人觉得已经涨了不少,犹豫ING.
PM你了.

大棒骨 · 发表于 2006-5-7 22:16

越犹豫越涨，最后还不是得买贵的。

屯长 · 发表于 2006-5-7 22:21

老杨 · 发表于 2006-5-7 22:22

不管未来如何，能如此认真地思考就值得加精！

游_客 · 发表于 2006-5-7 22:26

一直后悔没能学个石油专业. 看来除石油行当外,在加拿大建筑工人也是一个好职业.顺便问一下,怎样能成为移民建筑工?有硕士或博士文凭,但身板细点行么?文凭是否能优先?

FtMac1 · 发表于 2006-5-7 22:33

有一定道理,DING.
PM你了.

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-5-7 23:16

机会是很好，可惜有了一套房子的人也不能再贷款买第二套了。请各位支招怎样才能贷到款。好象是第二套房付35%down, 也不能贷到款了。

wolfgan · 发表于 2006-5-8 01:21

要是大家有机会体会到MCMURRAY的房价和卡城的房价，就知道什么是卫星拉。

菩提树 · 发表于 2006-5-8 03:06

怎么还有首付5%的好事情吗？不是要25%--35%吗？
严重关切中！！！

robingliu · 发表于 2006-5-8 04:13

请问：买旧的，偏远的位置的HOUSE，这个想法好不好？
本人打算15万（含贷款）刀买房，楼主有什么建议？买个TOWNHOUSE；还是旧HOUSE，等以后推倒重建？
多谢！

菩提树 · 发表于 2006-5-8 06:07

原帖由 robingliu 于 2006-5-8 04:13 发表
+ `3 h( E% P" w+ H8 g+ E& Z请问：买旧的，偏远的位置的HOUSE，这个想法好不好？: [: x+ M, l$ c# E
本人打算15万（含贷款）刀买房，楼主有什么建议？买个TOWNHOUSE；还是旧HOUSE，等以后推倒重建？6 S" U2 D2 h" {' ~3 c2 R, t
多谢！

严重关切中！！

这儿挺好的 · 发表于 2006-5-8 09:01

原帖由 robingliu 于 2006-5-8 04:13 发表. ? t1 @/ K1 e' o
请问：买旧的，偏远的位置的HOUSE，这个想法好不好？
) B0 S; k* H% Z4 T5 y本人打算15万（含贷款）刀买房，楼主有什么建议？买个TOWNHOUSE；还是旧HOUSE，等以后推倒重建？/ n/ [* b8 R/ [- U7 u
多谢！

你是为投资还是自住？投资有比这更好的选择。

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 09:23

原帖由 wypdx 于 2006-5-8 03:06 发表
: {0 Z; }! b, K3 T/ _6 L6 ^* _, ? L怎么还有首付5%的好事情吗？不是要25%--35%吗？; `# A7 S$ d- k9 d. Q; T/ H) ~
严重关切中！！！

有首付5%的, but it is not a good thing since you have to pay a mortgage insurance, ask realtor or banker for insurance rate. If you pay more than 25%, you do not need mortgage insurance.

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 09:32

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-5-7 23:16 发表
4 y$ @ m6 a+ H) G机会是很好，可惜有了一套房子的人也不能再贷款买第二套了。请各位支招怎样才能贷到款。好象是第二套房付35%down, 也不能贷到款了。

There are lots of ways to get a mortgage. The mortgage depends on total income and how much mortgage do you have right now, not depends on how many houses you own. One simple way is that rent your basement out and show contract to banker, so you income becomes higher.

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-5-8 09:53

原帖由 LHM 于 2006-5-8 09:32 发表
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There are lots of ways to get a mortgage. The mortgage depends on total income and how much mortgage do you have right now, not depends on how many houses you own. One simple way is that rent y ...

还有什么招？这招对我不管用，我basement是没有人愿意住的，3间房也占得满满的，不可能也不愿意分租出去了。

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 10:07

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-5-8 09:53 发表" l4 a% U. @, |" V* P( _! W1 [3 I

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还有什么招？这招对我不管用，我basement是没有人愿意住的，3间房也占得满满的，不可能也不愿意分租出去了。

Assume mortgage is another way, or you can find a property in which renter already living there.

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 10:12

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-5-8 09:53 发表
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还有什么招？这招对我不管用，我basement是没有人愿意住的，3间房也占得满满的，不可能也不愿意分租出去了。

Just try to convince banker that you have ability to pay back the mortgage, normally Chinese banker is more flexible.

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-5-8 10:12

原帖由 LHM 于 2006-5-8 10:07 发表
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Assume mortgage is another way, or you can find a property in which renter already living there.

谢谢，请继续。

我知道一些房地产起家的人是靠的滚雪球的效应，把自己现有的房子抵押加上租金收入再贷款，最后越滚越大，最后拥有几十套房子。

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-5-8 10:21

我有个想法，大家可以集资一个有限公司，比如说集资20万元。然后买个20万的期房，半年到1年后建好。现在builder只要求5%的定金就行了。也就是先投入1万元，半年到1年后就卖掉房子。这样同时买它个20套，想不发财都难。大家考虑一下此方案的可行性。

SUV · 发表于 2006-5-8 12:29

He is burned his brain.

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 13:09

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-5-8 10:21 发表$ Q4 [) p- _) q: u
我有个想法，大家可以集资一个有限公司，比如说集资20万元。然后买个20万的期房，半年到1年后建好。现在builder只要求5%的定金就行了。也就是先投入1万元，半年到1年后就卖掉房子。这样同时买它个20套，想不发财都 ...

You can not 同时买它个20套, since you can not get mortgage, but if you modify your method a little bit, it is OK and you can do it youself. You can 买1套也就是先投入1万元，半年到1年后就卖掉房子, if price goes up 10%, you make $20,000 and your return is 200%. But the risk is what you can do if you can not sell it!

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 13:13

原帖由 LHM 于 2006-5-8 13:09 发表% u8 n/ R# j8 ~8 Q; T# L$ E
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You can not 同时买它个20套, since you can not get mortgage, but if you modify your method a little bit, it is OK and you can do it youself. You can 买1套也就是先投入1万元，半年到1年后就卖掉房子 ...

And if price goes down, you will lose money.

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 13:38

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-5-8 10:12 发表
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谢谢，请继续。
8 F6 b/ W' D( h0 y8 H4 \: d3 ~8 J6 ]. p/ R. i
我知道一些房地产起家的人是靠的滚雪球的效应，把自己现有的房子抵押加上租金收入再贷款，最后越滚越大，最后拥有几十套房子。

The following article is written by Peter Kinch.

Spring Is In The Air!  In some markets in Canada it may feel like
Spring is starting to arrive.  Each and every year in late February and
early March, the banks start rolling out their Spring market campaign of
new products in an effort to attract new consumers. And, if early signs
are any indication, we're poised for yet another busy spring. The banks
view this as the best time of year to get your attention by coming up
with new products or simply putting twists on old ideas.

Over the next few weeks we'll see a variety of new products and this
year the early theme I'm seeing is banks getting more creative in an
effort to help you borrow more money. This is partly in response to growing
concerns about the potential of rising rates.

In an effort to take the focus away from rates, look for two lenders to
come out with 'True Equity' programs that will allow home buyers the
ability to borrow up to 75% of the equity in their homes without having
to qualify based on their incomes. These programs were previously only
available to self-employed borrowers. Income earners had to either put
more money down or pay higher rates. This will now be a mortgage based
on the equity and the rates will be fully discounted.
Another product to keep an eye on is more lenders who will be combining
the mortgage with the line of credit and creating a 'Global borrowing
limit' that will be re-advanceable. More and more consumers will be
looking for these kind of products for tax planning and investment
strategies.

And speaking about investors, banks are starting to recognize the
growing number of home owners who are buying multiple revenue properties for
investments and we now have an 'Interest-Only' mortgage available for
self-employed borrowers on a 'Stated-income' basis for revenue
properties. This marks the first time a self-employed individual can use
'stated-income' to qualify for a revenue property.

The interest rates will be higher for this product, but it is
reflective of a growing trend towards American-Style lending practices. A prime
example of an American trend influencing our banks will be longer
amortization periods. Canada has held tight on 25 year amortizations for
years, up until now that is. A few lenders have announced 30 year
amortizations on CMHC insured mortgages at fully discounted interest rates.

Finally, in an effort to further take your attention away from the long
term rates, look for lenders to get more creative with the discounts
they offer on Variable Rate Mortgages. I fully expect to see stronger
competition in the form of creative 'front-end loaded' discounts and
teaser rates that make it more confusing to compare an apple to an apple
when shopping for the best mortgage option. It's going to be another busy
spring market and consumers are going to be faced with more choices
than ever before. The key, like always, is to get expert advice and
remember you have options.

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-5-8 14:47

原帖由 LHM 于 2006-5-8 13:09 发表: \! L0 z* |# X L+ O* S0 I, {& ^. j
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You can not 同时买它个20套, since you can not get mortgage, but if you modify your method a little bit, it is OK and you can do it youself. You can 买1套也就是先投入1万元，半年到1年后就卖掉房子 ...

不用申请mortgage, 因为我有20万，我可以买个20万的房子。关键是我在closing day之前只用付1万。然后我就可以用余下来的19万去买第二套。。。。。，每套之间隔个一，俩个月。这样房子完工也是隔个一两个月(假设能做到)，那么我就总有钱去负担下一个房子的钱。

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-5-8 14:48

原帖由 LHM 于 2006-5-8 13:13 发表' J0 k5 }$ E6 d4 x7 O, f
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3 T4 k/ j6 ]+ ?# U$ NAnd if price goes down, you will lose money.

这个假设在目前一两年内不成立。

屯长 · 发表于 2006-5-8 16:17

听说Edmonton 几个大的石油化工项目已经启动或就要启动, Shell 公司10 billion 项目要干3 - 4 年, 这几年大批人将落户在本城. 而住房建设和服务行业远远跟不上居民的增加.今年仅仅是个开始.凡有目前房价是泡沫的想法都是不切实际的,凡认为房价是有几个炒房的人炒上去的都是幼稚的.面对如此情形, 你没有准备好, 我也没准备好,只有碰上买了房的才准备好了,在暗自庆幸呢.丢掉幻想,走进现实.建议有钱买房的买之, 租房的最好和房东签长期合约,水涨船高.

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 16:33

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-5-8 14:47 发表

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" _8 Y2 k8 k* s& u8 v; v, s' I不用申请mortgage, 因为我有20万，我可以买个20万的房子。关键是我在closing day之前只用付1万。然后我就可以用余下来的19万去买第二套。。。。。，每套之间隔个一，俩个月。这样房子完工也是隔个一两个月(假 ...

You can try it, but I do not think you can get 20 houses by using this method in a short time period. If you do not get nortgage, the builder will ask 25% down.

这儿挺好的 · 发表于 2006-5-8 16:42

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-5-8 14:47 发表( m7 t% |6 e p2 ?7 ^

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5 P, J6 {3 k* H- u- t* ~不用申请mortgage, 因为我有20万，我可以买个20万的房子。关键是我在closing day之前只用付1万。然后我就可以用余下来的19万去买第二套。。。。。，每套之间隔个一，俩个月。这样房子完工也是隔个一两个月(假 ...

你的设想很好，但不可行。因为虽然有的builder只要求 5% deposit，但他们还是要你拿到银行除去你down payment 的房价余款的mortgage approve才会去盖房。如果你的收入高达 10万年薪，又有20万现钱，可能能操作几套，但不可能是20套房子。因为你的贷款额度还是有限的。

屯民 · 发表于 2006-5-8 16:50

原帖由 这儿挺好的 于 2006-5-8 16:42 发表
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你的设想很好，但不可行。因为虽然有的builder只要求 5% deposit，但他们还是要你拿到银行除去你down payment 的房价余款的mortgage approve才会去盖房。如果你的收入高达 10万年薪，又有20万现钱，可能能操 ...

Agree.

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