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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...  ], F. i4 @/ N  {/ {- \
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; {( @! z7 Q6 }9 E' ?( qThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
( @( W% ^! p) K2 b; e% q- v" Minteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
# w$ ]( [3 o% @; }$ R5 \8 twill be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
" y& y9 U1 R) k; I0 {- f+ j  {% k( J& e1 f" Z9 e% I
The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
* j6 Z% ?  T7 ]. ~. R; u& qsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
! U  |; t1 e  Y* V1 x- M* W* _7 pindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
( C4 ^( s1 \+ H" P& l" zWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property4 B, R+ W4 a) a* T+ M5 M
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by# _# v9 u+ f- d4 {4 u' V- Y* |. O8 G
how much.- M3 b# p: v$ \3 k7 [  b4 t
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,1 B, o+ `5 o3 S* t) s/ D" U! X3 P& \
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very% U# o$ }7 q( P+ @
strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
- Y, ~  M, i" o( n5 x$ w$ @findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
. }6 [4 y, {. I% lJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
# ]$ \: ]' ^9 F& t  @markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact3 K6 Y* ^' W4 O' Z! Z& u! s+ A
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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, e/ J: y+ C" M( R1 jTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the7 @2 n! e. O& a2 ~$ p2 x. W2 u
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
3 O1 I, Q8 S6 ?9 O% Mthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we. Y2 r( ]. Z4 k: ]4 d
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
( L/ A1 ~. U! }( M: AThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these# }, z1 j; J+ c2 n  u' x/ a9 o* q
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
( |8 ~/ \/ G" V1 K% `months.  ! l" {! X+ ~5 ?/ I
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting5 _% X( n$ i6 W
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
& k% I' y' m9 p' o  t* ffundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that* e4 L  ?2 ]3 ^" ?
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
6 w" z" h6 q* G: n5 Auntil it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
- z% n4 T1 c8 X' D2 S; }because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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3 c  @$ }: l" @5 oBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
- f$ z' y. L$ _1 h2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June' q- R. Q1 I% M
2006 New Housing Price Index for:$ G, O, h" s8 N* }/ |$ M

3 a- F( }& y- _! aVancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%4 v5 R0 @+ I6 x& }- N5 K
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%1 q5 ?4 l( Z7 [: o6 f- C
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%$ o; s, X$ J. R( B2 P7 I
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
3 @. }2 K) S! @: k" C+ fSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
! s9 ]  F) I* ~" z- M- h7 A0 w8 JToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.29 \; d9 O# D) ?) k2 ?
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%" I7 W5 ?+ h+ m8 p" s

0 D* h8 G; K, U+ @4 [Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
5 t) b5 u' h8 ~- c: i9 T, Tgives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
) J% Q0 U& t+ K! X5 U8 {be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not# y1 k0 f3 r% \! A" Z) v" ^) g3 u5 f
only across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
0 A1 G$ t4 d8 `) y+ `# {increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to( `; a: C# E/ Z5 K" @
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.& y8 H$ _. c( M% e2 O. y

! `6 M: \4 G  F% X( R; qHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong7 s5 f) I. S  }% l% g
fundamentals:
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
5 M: R5 J9 d. Q: x5 D' Y0 I0 xCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
/ Y" F* U9 F1 Ffor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
4 C2 c* [5 N2 z' u- c+ }8 m, Mthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the' A, W) `( P' e
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
5 r' s! l; a/ G( T: [; _4 l: xthe US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see  ]( \- `  n, L. z+ U; R2 L3 t% w
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment: {7 Y/ C5 R% W2 _, p
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in$ u/ L/ T4 _/ l7 m7 n/ u$ G" p' e: _
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
8 G  E2 g! c, E: G# _0 o& YDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest5 \5 s4 A8 q- a, ^, h6 g
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
: @; C7 u& r9 Nproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the( |5 l1 N$ v5 J; W/ O+ p3 h
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can- K( S+ H; e" b; _- n- _
beat it for long term investment.0 p$ T. K; ?4 \

! T2 u* e8 N. F4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
/ E. X+ j5 A: K; X( t/ z) _' R# ^a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
# W+ P& t. n4 G% g8 ocreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)0 Y' l7 g! g" `( |7 Z) g
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
8 H9 O& ~0 H+ k, }January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... 5 A) v% K! M, j2 z$ i5 s2 K, U$ L$ `& y9 R

; S- T% k. \1 b, |3 vStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the2 Z( e5 A% Y. T$ w6 E" L8 b" V
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
: Z9 G( U( f: g( ~economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
6 j  L7 \4 v+ g4 ~- K0 Cthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
! J  F& E- t- ?. z4 i! o& Qrepeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with. i+ K) H+ C1 `2 m
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at3 r) j' O9 B( h  _1 N
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
: E- C; j: ]% s) Iof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
  h: x! u8 R9 t5 P" f/ Fwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.) |7 O4 O# z8 c2 _# r# a+ d
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong6 W% O% s; T1 {0 n
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
7 f% p! @' J: S0 f+ y9 M'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do/ z7 ]( Z1 F2 A
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the( z9 B: B9 ?, ^+ _4 W" Y
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the2 E: T! z6 V; ~, B# ~
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared- ?' a. {6 A7 ?# \& r
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.7 \" [3 f; b7 m8 Q

/ Z& r6 f/ V8 N2 `3 ? 6 u$ E' _$ k6 u2 x/ N
Capital Gains Comparison.
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! P' n) O& |# s* W) E4 gKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
8 A7 l- d" r8 Y% ?& y: X* g6 {: zMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see
* C. t7 U, V4 k7 i1 Ehow these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:
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& S: y# }% d6 J6 z7 @BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
* w/ i9 I/ [5 O! J' xAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
  O+ v1 T! K& e. @+ V4 sSK . . . . . . . .  22.0%' b) i3 G  e0 G1 x" R7 X. s
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
* o6 ^& U; O- oON . . . . . . . .  23.2%2 p0 a$ q% g8 j
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%3 f# t; }4 I" p* L
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
7 H- P+ @/ a" q- J! B% A) e/ jNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%" B8 h6 q6 O9 m7 j+ k/ E' m+ ]9 u
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
- g( q! b- y" {8 _, m( f$ L7 A: {NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%2 D* e4 c- ~. N2 y- d9 c" @4 b

7 C" a1 N) n! n% ]Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term3 d0 O3 m. t- z% K  D4 _
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of. B6 a1 `* W9 U5 ~* C  p- C( w
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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1 e# I+ Y2 j6 @* FOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the  n: |9 K: r! {
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
. d1 Q: @6 i8 M' |5 r8 Q1 r5 `4 |course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only', U: a  A% P5 H0 U1 P
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
. {' W3 b$ h4 L" n# Q9 ~% U# L, Kwhen you take action as a full REIN Member.) Z# U# r" S% a% D/ n9 o* ~
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
7 d" J4 J" \1 Y& ^& W) oresults in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
- `0 K$ T1 ?5 e  i( _NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...+ ~  `2 w) y( D: J3 q( G7 H. H4 z

0 G$ @. K; c, }; w# R  p2 ]3 U2 U  F
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
2 H% K1 y/ s* O0 j6 w/ ?interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it: ?3 u) p4 Z5 |7 ^0 [9 x& x
will be  ...

% `! j) k* `3 B: u, L% q( u
+ o7 n4 r  u2 b谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good. + D# k( \$ i1 w: o

" f& U' m4 X! ?http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
  T8 B5 `7 G: h! p/ c& Z9 n3 n/ J; N; W
You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
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$ k# x1 X; B: w( X) T5 T0 h! mhttp://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
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发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。( L$ ]# I% h- p  s3 X, y

' s' {7 i+ G, Q+ ?: w/ q- k***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****
* l/ X: y! n1 r% \* Y+ g% e% j. z- m, c) X; k2 e0 P: ^
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
! f, x0 b  K$ A# X* h5 c5 ANEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...4 }! m* T1 [* |  G1 S  c# m

3 X/ P: A! b) \3 W% q" M% D! T9 S. I8 B  b
With close to 3,000 net new people into% g  r. e& {1 t8 G
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we' w( Z7 w; |7 N& r/ L" @7 J" R
saw the New Housing Price Index ...

2 t0 s, m$ i3 L3 P8 ][ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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