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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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/ @/ }2 a( c/ m2 c# qThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very' m" @* K; y  M) L, Y
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
# \8 A4 D$ g( H! Z5 }6 f1 Ewill be going.
  L/ E6 |2 F3 p3 t" h) g, T$ Z/ n( x- w9 O& T5 q& E
It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
: y7 r0 H+ _2 Y: Z! t8 b* c6 G; h' J( N' V. R8 E7 f& h' A# q; @
The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by1 [  f0 W  x6 A3 ]. R3 F
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an! T, z/ l8 A: m! }; i8 U! f& Y
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. 9 p: r6 T6 D" D( t% X, r
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
( A' N4 a/ Q5 |9 [9 V3 Y$ S3 E4 cvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by5 ?' K. Z  a" T5 }+ A1 i/ @' ]  H9 r
how much.0 Q; n- E5 _: h4 M
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
/ h4 f6 p! k; l  Q4 `Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very: }' a! i& i" }# r& E+ x
strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
4 Q6 Z. N* }- e, A0 Sfindings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
( @6 f! z5 ^& FJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best6 [: U: w' S  m3 F+ R9 C
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact
) {7 U0 I5 o- }7 F/ f/ fon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.8 |7 ?( Y& g+ D9 D. z

3 X3 M! T( u7 h$ P3 h' u+ uTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
7 n7 T5 I! E  A/ T1 f; ]) d/ tmarket continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into* n' z2 L+ H6 B" K! Y9 ^" t1 Z
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we  G0 h( u4 \, B
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). 4 _4 U* A$ s& x+ W5 K
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
  ^5 q% h  l7 {& M0 U9 W/ k0 Mincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
6 i: H) b) q1 y: pmonths.  - L0 Q2 D% G( L5 Z1 r
- s4 g5 d0 P! o& e
Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
5 _4 L  R! r4 ccaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying; F0 p2 K0 g# }, H$ C
fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
4 q; f, g$ [. y1 ?1 sthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait' B1 G4 S- e2 i! n& v
until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all9 C3 _6 K; G' X3 Q: {
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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+ I4 o" [- a- c3 w  `8 uBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
2 U: d5 q! \2 z! h: I2005 to June 2006), also great news.1 k% f9 r6 a/ f2 q

% z; T. h; S! ]& WBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June/ U, i' P& P' J; T* E
2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%  \0 }, |! w6 w' @, n6 w( J
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%5 r: i, U- Z+ y
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
1 x5 O& d& [" Y, U( T; O* dHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
# d9 J! J- w; q9 PSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
- D9 }/ e+ _% k" N& e; hToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
1 m. G$ ^) L& k* I2 b2 m$ dOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%) `0 T+ p  x/ z9 B
* L; f0 K! T* e
Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
4 a- l# g* e, `- F% j$ k& G. Sgives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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6 _- J' [5 H0 F( g9 T0 HAs the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to9 O( H1 j$ e! I* W
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not" N; ~1 b* X1 T1 I' o7 p
only across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
; Z: z* \- o) z" G8 }) @9 Mincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to0 ~2 b! w. T# h2 y& y
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
" ]( p! g9 Q/ A+ _, b1 ^4 q' P) V) t& h$ d
Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong% {+ y0 a4 T' r" w
fundamentals:
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in2 N4 Q  B3 \' ]  X8 Q( g9 B
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth. C" y1 w7 k. M* S
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
8 c2 f' ^$ n5 k- Ythis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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* A* P& D" s7 \& g4 y: k# H2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the% B+ a3 |$ E* g2 u1 v) B% n
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
! ~3 f3 v" C3 vthe US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
) }/ g. @- l, g( j% W' \* _0 Q! O8 uthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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# c9 h8 b7 x6 R9 ?# N# z5 _( o3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment, ]' H7 f6 P( }" R& x/ Y  S8 S
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in' j+ o6 w, X" j; `
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
! z) Y- ]2 ~. l- T' hDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest, T+ N0 C3 `- }+ q7 m
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
  |& O  ?1 s4 dproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
" K, F) ?0 j) p' a' F! X! zpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can1 {3 K! c/ B/ |4 ?- w% J( b, |
beat it for long term investment.2 p5 A8 o% M. k* \4 M+ Z1 D7 t
+ w: K4 e. O. l  H6 \
4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely$ c# Q8 y+ p: ?6 ~, z
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
+ `' {0 n  X8 l4 O7 ?" k% L3 Ocreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics): p0 M1 o) T6 j- U
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
% s: L4 G+ @0 y1 E9 _January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... / m/ e; s0 J! {. U1 z! k8 I. U
0 \. j* Y% ?. K  v& u$ ^* {; T5 Y
Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
# K2 Z  `% Y2 m5 D; Ufirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
/ G, d3 k/ D: S, eeconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of+ D5 ^0 x9 T. x0 J
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not! z/ S4 u. z3 R: [7 A! Z
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with2 N5 z5 K9 W. V. d  O
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at: [9 u% P! j7 }7 B1 B
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
6 ^3 {2 h, b& }3 C/ c" Dof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in- |: c2 l- Z; ~3 ^
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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' r9 _  v  ^1 t- l8 XIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong" L' w. y7 V1 s" C
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed) t6 G+ A! r9 U- P6 `9 [
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
% @$ r2 l* ?1 j) u0 ryour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
* s" ?7 d: j9 Y( q! B+ m7 Jopportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
' P" d" d5 F9 V6 k'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
& K4 j5 T; c9 D  i8 f9 p  w( jand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
9 g- z8 X: p, p. `8 ^6 z2 F) G' u: S) A) E

% Q9 V  Q7 Q& a& \% Z' ICapital Gains Comparison.- U5 M9 E6 D! i" I
( a5 ]* e& j( D9 `. |/ e: y
KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
( ]! C. d/ A' p; H1 sMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see1 W# \2 c' ~. Y! P
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:6 h8 S& Z* e) {6 u* A
% x  U7 d' }, M/ @0 b: }
BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
6 W6 E9 n9 B  nAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%0 X6 V# g. {: K! u( _, H& A$ c
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%% N: q# ?& q- T1 y( f  N+ p$ K
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
6 Y4 ~7 e/ J& G( S6 n; l! u! ]' YON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
/ d0 w7 U! t0 i* x4 XQC . . . . . . . .  24.1%: u. L2 n+ G& h: v: l: }
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
2 W# ^0 s* B% q, {2 }* y. c8 a% XNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%' O, ^# C" E2 j- |6 ?( F
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
' {( B" B, E. X4 }$ |1 NNF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
# ?. t. C( B% T4 i5 y5 E. _* B* Q6 v% t5 o7 q6 @! y6 d+ y- z
Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
) o- Z4 P" P' [* `/ M9 Xeconomy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of/ k* w7 N% c  P5 F: j
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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* * * * * *
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the7 c" Y8 K0 B! `
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of9 ]8 s  f( p1 |0 i5 T
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
" g$ v; y0 V, j. U  devents like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
7 ^) ]8 }5 Y- a3 fwhen you take action as a full REIN Member.
9 D4 l4 }* w7 F+ n/ K) p& @3 C4 P  C# R% [4 U% k  p- A
Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the6 H  i6 C( u3 g7 ^; E/ Z0 M" B! f
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
2 \6 \: `9 g- Z$ g' h7 z! Y$ }9 y( v  xNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...) f" H/ A, _% n% F. g

$ x+ F0 x) O+ p! _2 e, _$ o  }+ n
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very. f* |! |7 c( O3 k
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
1 ^7 Q# s+ s4 V# ^% T  Y" |* {will be  ...
. c* {9 n" s6 ^3 X5 }- m9 G
9 G0 t/ s  H8 s8 r1 q3 i) T0 h
谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good. / F% U, v" _7 r# Z0 Z0 k

+ V3 _, \# e( T( v# Yhttp://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
, w' B( U; ~' j4 n* o
: X4 L/ Y6 F8 mYou can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.' W; l" M, e3 t7 k, k
: v1 K+ F) N9 F$ }
http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。1 w$ B' Z2 `- P# V

5 }/ I9 g- d1 S( a& Y***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****4 C* Y+ g5 d( V* Q
4 Z6 {: S+ u( S% N3 R2 z/ |1 ]
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表8 h+ m8 y7 u6 I) ~! D
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
' [( {+ b* W3 x2 J7 {
2 ?+ I5 y  l/ e# X) {! A( D# D; B$ c0 u4 a6 W
With close to 3,000 net new people into- ]9 t( c- @0 ~5 w  p
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we( c- Z+ T) Z# a1 e
saw the New Housing Price Index ...

0 s& Z6 E6 r9 V0 r; l+ ~+ U- W[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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