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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com J7 n) k# P. }
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* S5 k. A: G6 o& z( n0 h# n; K, W1 N In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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: C2 X: c$ {9 h* ^Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007+ f$ u" w8 c: M3 x
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. : S3 @* C1 q/ Q5 a
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. - y0 v5 ]8 [% K: @9 L$ O- O; j
; ^+ w$ {+ k! k8 f" sBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 9 x9 u1 i* K, u( p% J' M( c' S
* L0 h4 Q5 i) ]1 U8 b/ l5 W/ D) ^Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 3 ~' [6 A. X4 A% j* s( |
+ B: f: H+ |- G& G'CONTINUED DEMAND' / U* j1 ?: ^. d
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." , H; i& X8 h8 O5 q
, m& ?7 R5 d7 v: ^! b& AShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 |! F2 j0 ^7 W0 G6 ?# o
& Q" O: N4 X: ]- y( O7 m0 J0 @"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. * N% _6 c4 L/ b$ Q6 @3 H$ }! E
" G* [# [1 I9 ?% t b, u9 PCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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6 f }( Y* M- J( z"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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0 \, g" x) u/ P8 {Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ' \. [$ V# z) x7 b$ y
$ Y/ _/ }5 A4 p( w- L& ~# y"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ; Z+ H2 ^2 e- n' U
. |3 ?8 J. |, E: J" MNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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# N2 c ~- a2 X' c8 y( NExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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% L0 A5 Y; w) s8 ]4 F& }His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. & f9 Z2 Y; g/ ], n# R& o
( R i5 c; j5 g6 P"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. % A( O7 n, s, N8 r3 ~$ `
/ b& I" D; N8 S! W) `6 |Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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q4 _$ v, L, z/ s& s"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. 8 z3 B m( K. }+ X+ I
5 k9 ~9 { C7 `' H. r6 T9 [: Q+ JPrevious story: Bottom Line+ u: {7 X4 q, M0 E2 Z( c
Next story: Building permits hit record- c) X$ |, m% ]7 N9 ^2 o- T% Q
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