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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 " Q3 ~. w6 ~4 M/ e* |1 T6 x; I
7 C9 K, V7 s! G有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。
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. I$ a' v2 ], J" a! D: _$ yMan who called the oil crush now sees this; _2 t/ _; f% x
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/20172 l2 U7 g3 [8 q: B5 \9 g( v, B# e
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.' |8 O) y2 o) a! A# _& W4 Q8 q0 _9 _4 D
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Now, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
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; v$ `* T- m# u+ c4 eCrude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”+ d" L* u$ ]$ v1 H
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The increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel.5 ^2 M% @$ p7 `- h3 \+ H
+ Y+ Y6 l$ X {$ W: vYusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian.; J9 U, f/ @+ R q
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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5 t) B" T8 w5 t$ n+ r“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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5 u9 L* f6 Q! q V8 FLooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking : K( d7 s& F: o4 p6 x& l2 n0 n
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, M6 I, f4 b$ S1 Y* c5 x0 }- ?8 fFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.' ~4 x$ o, P- u/ h1 S
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Source: CNBC
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发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
