ZT- $1,600/mo. magic number for builders (买房或者离开?)

ZJDX

Rents would need to be that high to motivate developers, CHMC market analyst says; government seeks voluntary landlord code of conduct

Jason Markusoff and Ron Chalmers, with files from Archie McLean and The Calgary Herald, The Edmonton Journal; with files from The Calgary Herald
Published: Wednesday, May 16, 2007

EDMONTON - Edmonton apartment-dwellers looking for relief from soaring rents won't find it in a red-hot housing market that will keep heating up, according to a forecast by the federal housing agency.
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. ?; q& d) _8 r. |4 m8 tThe Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicted Tuesday that average monthly rent for two-bedroom units will rise 20 per cent to $970 this October, up from $808 a year earlier.
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4 q# k) f& S/ S0 W& OIt will then increase to $1,115 per month in 2008, marking a 38-per-cent average hike in two years. Meanwhile, the city's vacancy rate will drop to a 30-year low of 0.7 per cent this year, then keep going lower, because of "strong demand from newcomers and a shortage of new units entering the market," the CMHC report said.
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Opposition parties say the figures add fuel to their calls for government rent controls that would cap increases for existing apartments well below the CMHC projections.
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But Premier Ed Stelmach said he hasn't changed his mind on the issue.

"If more units aren't put in place, then of course rents will continue to rise, but you've got to increase the supply," the permier said Tuesday. "The reverse is if you put in a temporary freeze, then no movement will be made in terms of numbers of housing units built."

The Tory government last month pledged nearly $200 million to Alberta cities to create new affordable rental units. Richard Goatcher, CMHC's senior market analyst for Edmonton, predicted that among the growing number of housing starts few will be for renters.
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2 O2 H0 S$ x& `1 ?  d"Eventually, rents will rise to the point that someone will be motivated to build rental housing," Goatcher said. "The question is, at what price?"

. l9 l8 X# {1 W/ o! xSome developers have said that rents of $1,500 to $2,000 per month would be needed to justify new rental apartment construction, he said.
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4 ~  }, P6 O) }8 YBoardwalk, Alberta's largest landlord, has suggested prices would have to hit $1,600 before they start building.
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* B( R: }# f1 K1 z0 z" i"The government's right to say that the underlying issue here is a shortage of supply, that's true, but there's no way in the world that enough supply is going to come on in the next couple of years to correct the market," Liberal Leader Kevin Taft said.
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- O% H2 o: A, c"And so, what do you do in the meantime? People are going to be thrown out onto the street."
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Taft advocates temporary rent controls, as does a recent report from the government's housing task force. An Ipsos-Reid poll found that 78 per cent of homeowners and 92 per cent of renters in Calgary and Edmonton support government caps on rent increases.
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, |# P7 m9 _0 L2 F2 }+ ^Health Minister Dave Hancock, Edmonton's senior-ranking Tory, called the poll ridiculous.
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"If you ask anybody, 'Would you like to pay more or would you like to have somebody legislate to keep your costs down,' you'll get that kind of an answer," he said. "The issue of accommodation and how we assist people with managing accommodation costs is a lot more complex than that."
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: r! K/ `  J6 T& D# m$ C8 C% hBut several Calgary Tory MLAs say the government may have to reconsider its position.
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"We are servants of Albertans, and if that is what they want, we have to rethink this," said Calgary-McCall MLA Shiraz Shariff, who currently opposes rent controls.

) K& V2 a% |$ |7 B/ L"If the problem persists and if that's a remedy that can be applied for a short period of time, it's something I'm willing to consider."

Calgary-Nose Hill MLA Neil Brown said housing is the No. 1 reason people call his office, and most want rent controls. Calgary-Fort MLA Wayne Cao, whose riding drafted a failed resolution at the recent Tory convention calling for measures such as rent controls, said he doesn't support ceilings on rent increases, but recognizes the government must do something.

* `3 r& J7 C/ W$ O& t$ f$ J+ M& \"With that kind of poll, I guess we will discuss around it," Cao said. "To be politicians, we need to consider people's input."

* t- b; A: E/ r5 f, A' XAlana DeLong, MLA for Calgary-Bow, said she is against temporary rent controls because they are difficult to remove and would discourage new building. However, she is concerned that so many people seem to be in favour of ceilings.
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"I'll be certainly looking at it again," she said.

Meanwhile, Service Alberta Minister Lloyd Snelgrove's proposal to stop landlords from extreme rent hikes by blacklisting them from government-funded programs appears to be shelved for now. He said he didn't discuss the plan with the province's advisory group of landlords and tenant-issue officials this week as he'd earlier planned, and avoided bringing up the blacklist as a solution to the housing crunch.

"I would like to see if they have ideas to help this thing," Snelgrove said, referring to the advisory committee.
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! u+ d* n! e% WOne member, Clarence Rusnell of Artec Realty and Management, said he had no opinion on the blacklist idea, since it wasn't mentioned during the group's meeting with Snelgrove. He also argued that rents will only increase at half the rate CMHC predicted.
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9 H9 L7 @7 S, @! i4 nGoatcher predicted "total housing starts will moderate slightly this year in greater Edmonton to 14,150 units, but will still represent the third-highest year on record."

The balance of new-home construction is shifting away from single-family homes toward condos because of high costs, an inventory of unsold single-family homes and a shortage of building lots.

Multiple unit starts, mostly condos, will reach the highest level since 1982, with 6,000 units in 2007 and close to 5,500 in 2008.
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* v  m4 H3 H$ c7 T3 T% z6 {/ `"Some of those condos will move into the rental market, but at rates substantially above the average market rent," Goatcher said.

He traced the continued brisk construction activity to regional economic strength, in-migration and stable mortgage rates.

Sales of resale homes, which hit a record number of 21,984 units in 2006, will rise higher in 2007 with the growth of new listings, CMHC predicted. Sales are then expected to fall slightly in 2008 as high prices deter first-time buyers.
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CMHC forecasts that full-year average prices, for all forms of resale housing, will rise from $251,000 in 2006 to $340,000 in 2007 and $374,000 in 2008. That forecast may already be outdated, as the Edmonton Real Estate Board has reported that prices averaged $344,137 in April.
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6 H# K+ e" a7 H# W# G"Our forecast is looking conservative, but we are expecting price growth to slow down," Goatcher said.
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Also on Tuesday, the government asked its Alberta Residential Tenancies Committee to come back in a month with suggestions for a voluntary landlord code of conduct, as well as other ideas for dealing with housing problems. The committee was established in 2003 to advise government on residential tenancies matters and is made up of landlords, housing and business officials and an academic.

Service Alberta spokesman Cam Traynor said the members rejected the idea of having an MLA sit on the committee -- a role last week that Calgary MLA Len Webber was expected to fill. Traynor said the committee made the decision to keep the committee external from government.

老杨

谁能给翻译一下？我出1万金币！

牛眼熊心

原帖由 老杨 于 2007-5-16 09:04 发表
" z. \" t" O$ G/ R' l谁能给翻译一下？我出1万金币！

10万怎么样?

smalltown

How can we afford to live here? If they increase rent to $1600, the only choice I have is to leave. I came to Alberta 8 years ago, it was a great place to live, but now...  
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2 ^2 n' z$ @' ~This richest province is for rich people.

牛眼熊心

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-16 09:59 发表
How can we afford to live here? If they increase rent to $1600, the only choice I have is to leave. I came to Alberta 8 years ago, it was a great place to live, but now...  
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This riches ...

/ o+ f9 o8 G  d) Y答案: 赶快买房子, 不要要求太高, 买个two bedroom old condo就行了, 现在也只20多万, 还是比租房子划算.

flagship

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-16 09:59 发表
How can we afford to live here? If they increase rent to $1600, the only choice I have is to leave. I came to Alberta 8 years ago, it was a great place to live, but now...  

This riches ...

The rich place is for the rich!!!!
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. f; h  x% D/ H: g" T3 j# i[ 本帖最后由 flagship 于 2007-5-16 10:09 编辑 ]

eagle2007

都从中国走到这里了，
$ K3 m9 ^( L5 c! e2 b不怕再走一次

flagship

很明显, ALBERTA 要为它的法制不健全付出代价了。别的省似乎都有限制乱涨的政策法规，唯独这里没有，所以才会出现这种局面。

3 W# G, I& T8 ?当房租涨到一定的高度后，该离开的人自然就会选择离开，----------这也是一种调节杠杆作用

% b. F2 R! t8 ]6 G; C( C! ^当穷人们都离开了，这里就只剩下富人了。
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[ 本帖最后由 flagship 于 2007-5-16 10:19 编辑 ]

smalltown

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-5-16 10:07 发表

' ?3 G$ a8 \# c0 G/ p. H答案: 赶快买房子, 不要要求太高, 买个two bedroom old condo就行了, 现在也只20多万, 还是比租房子划算.

9 x* H7 `9 v% z* {2 d/ G/ }. ^The quality of life will be bad if I live in a 2 bedroom condo as I have 2 kids. I am renting a townhouse now, the rent is still reasonable now. But I don't know how much increase I will receive next year. If they increase to a level I cannot swallow, I have to consider to move to eastern Canada for a better life.

牛眼熊心

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-16 10:16 发表


The quality of life will be bad if I live in a 2 bedroom condo as I have 2 kids. I am renting a townhouse now, the rent is still reasonable now. But I don't know how much increase I will rece ...

那就买个30万的townhouse, 25%的首期, 一个月付出mortgage大概是1300,加上200的condo fee, 总共1500, 我看你现在的租金也应该要1100左右, 一年后可能就到1500了. 搬到东部当然好, 只不过有多少人能真正成行? 保证找到工作吗? 搬家成本多少?搬过去租金能便宜多少?

flagship

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-5-16 10:16 发表
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" p% f) k- K# A* w. h( Y: wThe quality of life will be bad if I live in a 2 bedroom condo as I have 2 kids. I am renting a townhouse now, the rent is still reasonable now. But I don't know how much increase I will rece ...

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Then Edmonton will no longer be a GREAT place for you and your family to live. You are not alone, there are thousands of people like you and me. I don't think people in Edmonton all make big money to cover the soaring living costs. When the time comes, many will choose to leave.
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$ a  s; X  \$ }2 ~" @Changing is always good.

flagship

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-5-16 10:25 发表

: r/ E" I, l6 w0 Y; F. g6 J那就买个30万的townhouse, 25%的首期, 一个月付出mortgage大概是1300,加上200的condo fee, 总共1500, 我看你现在的租金也应该要1100左右, 一年后可能就到1500了. 搬到东部当然好, 只不过有多少人能真正成行?  ...

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9 y" b* O+ F) k, x$ z8 s1 m是啊，谁能保证到东边就有好日子啊！生活所迫，没法子啊。

牛眼熊心

原帖由 flagship 于 2007-5-16 10:27 发表
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# ~- {/ _" s6 M. l  U* O8 k# Y是啊，谁能保证到东边就有好日子啊！生活所迫，没法子啊。

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有人辞官归故里, 有人星夜赶科场.

# @' ^# s& Q0 }% Q2 d  r$ l' Z还是那句话........ 不要要求生活为你而改变, 需要改变的是你自己

Change is good. However, change is not always good.

ZJDX

根据联邦房屋局的预估,埃德蒙顿的公寓居民希望能够在飞涨的房租上松口气的愿望恐怕在这个火得发红的房屋市场上是不可能实现了, 因为这个房屋市场还会继续升温.

: E+ w& S) E4 B( l加拿大抵押和房产公司星期二断言,一个两居室的平均月房租到10月份的时候将会达到970加元,相比与去年的808加元,上涨了20%.
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7 c+ w/ v' H$ q到2008年的时候,一个两居室的平均月房租将会达到1115加元,两年内上涨幅度达到38%.同时,房屋空置率将下降到30年的最低水平0.7%,而且还会继续下降.加拿大抵押和房产公司的报告指出,这都是因为"新来埃德蒙顿的居民的强劲需求和新投入市场的公寓单位的短缺".

阿省反对党指出,这些数字更加凸现出他们的提案的重要性,那就是限制房租的上涨幅度,让市面上的公寓房租水平远低于加拿大抵押和房产公司的预计.
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7 @! M. Y& n- k8 }* P但是,阿省的首相(Ed Stelmach)却说在这个议题上,他没有改**度.

3 a9 n& D: h- ?4 E! ?- |2 j6 hEd Stelmach有另外一种看法, "如果没有新的公寓单位上市,那么房租上涨是正常的,所以你需要增加供应量.相反的,如果政府暂时的限制了房租,那么就不会有人去兴建新的公寓单位."
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保守党政府上个星期承诺了2亿加元的拨款给阿省各个城市来兴建新的低收入房屋. Richard Goatcher,一位加拿大抵押和房产公司的资深市场分析员指出,在增长的新房屋供应量中,只有很少一部分是出租单位.

/ V$ F3 J5 r3 F' GRichard Goatcher分析说:"最后,房租将会达到一个可以鼓励人兴建出租单位的水平.问题是,这个房租价格是多少?"

"一些建筑商说月房租需要达到在1500-2000加元,才能促使他们兴建出租单位."Richard Goatcher补充道.
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8 A. O7 k+ @/ c/ vBoardwalk, 阿省最大的土地拥有者,建议房租水平必须达到1600加元.在次之前,他们不会考虑兴建出租单位.
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) v2 E/ D  k/ c* j; l& u& v% b( s自由党魁Kevin Taft说:"政府说供应量短缺是正确的.但是,问题是根本没有办法在今后几年提供足够的房屋单位来矫正房屋市场."

"那么,你该做什么呢?老百姓将被赶到大街上去."
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Kevin Taft鼓吹需要一个暂时的房租限制措施,就象最近政府一份关于房屋市场的报告里建议的一样.一个民意测验显示,在卡尔加里和埃德蒙顿,78%的房屋拥有者和92%的租房者支持政府设置房租上限.
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; j1 q, D& T% ?, E卫生部长Dave Hancock,埃德蒙顿的资深保守党员,说这个民意测验是荒谬的.
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  z8 S# N) l$ c7 U& q% J* F" c6 L3 z"如果你去问别人,'你想多付房租吗?或者你希望政府立法来减低你的花费吗?',你将会得到这种回答.住宿问题和我们如何帮助老百姓来管理住宿花费要比这种问题复杂的得多."

eagle2007

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-5-16 10:25 发表

: {' S7 t% U2 b; P, ]那就买个30万的townhouse, 25%的首期, 一个月付出mortgage大概是1300,加上200的condo fee, 总共1500, 我看你现在的租金也应该要1100左右, 一年后可能就到1500了. 搬到东部当然好, 只不过有多少人能真正成行?  ...

# u2 ?* J, X4 q: `# X

9 {* j2 L% n- V, S) M
  U7 U3 |8 h# [  W3 {# Y到东边不一定就有好日子,
不过不到东边一定没有好日子---如果房租这样涨的话

' G# G( |  b* n) C. F' N0 ^就让油价和这里的房价一起在天上飞去吧

flagship

原帖由 eagle2007 于 2007-5-16 11:21 发表
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到东边不一定就有好日子,
& Y6 M; M: G$ N; U7 u& J3 s% J不过不到东边一定没有好日子---如果房租这样涨的话
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就让油价和这里的房价一起在天上飞去吧

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make sense

flagship

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-5-16 10:35 发表
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1 s7 P# O4 e- E+ t: {8 T
还是那句话........ 不要要求生活为你而改变, 需要改变的是你自己

) e* g6 M; O# ]' B* _/ d, z" X没看懂

牛眼熊心

原帖由 flagship 于 2007-5-16 11:31 发表
/ W0 _' w: E& Q" t* _
8 Q: W) f% w3 Q. N* ~6 Y' v, O
3 _/ L8 s  F' y2 |; p+ x' b' W没看懂

% Q- M* E5 W( l  g) }
世界上有两样事, 大家都无法控制, 天灾和人祸.
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房地产上涨, 房东涨租金, 属于后者, 你无法改变的. 要想应对:
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1. 降低自己其它的生活开销
2. 增加收入
; u5 S) J* l. J/ |6 a3. 搬出
4. 买房子, 把自己变成房东.
# z, H" m/ t- B2 m
9 U. \* n# r& Y反正你得改变.

flagship

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-5-16 11:49 发表

# x2 x6 f& O) f% p* ]( D' h7 m
5 q* W( ]5 l3 F/ U世界上有两样事, 大家都无法控制, 天灾和人祸.
  a! |  c( [3 |
$ ]2 P0 d! l2 u; y. v房地产上涨, 房东涨租金, 属于后者, 你无法改变的. 要想应对:

1. 降低自己其它的生活开销
2. 增加收入
3. 搬出
' ]* E1 x- @! c# [- c/ B. |4. 买房子, 把自己变成房东.
- X; q) _- n' ~
: a% i1 J/ J* K" s2 F3 D7 y- i反正 ...

% R- ?/ ^" m4 ^$ w; f这下明白了, 多谢啦!

ZJDX

根据联邦房屋局的预估,埃德蒙顿的公寓居民希望能够在飞涨的房租上松口气的愿望恐怕在这个火得发红的房屋市场上是不可能实现了, 因为这个房屋市场还会继续升温.

4 `% t1 `! D& X4 Q; N3 D" X加拿大抵押和房产公司星期二断言,一个两居室的平均月房租到10月份的时候将会达到970加元,相比与去年的808加元,上涨了20%.
# X' R' U/ r" k& d' X
  {7 F; k: E& }6 R' S. R3 b到2008年的时候,一个两居室的平均月房租将会达到1115加元,两年内上涨幅度达到38%.同时,房屋空置率将下降到30年的最低水平0.7%,而且还会继续下降.加拿大抵押和房产公司的报告指出,这都是因为"新来埃德蒙顿的居民的强劲需求和新投入市场的公寓单位的短缺".

阿省反对党指出,这些数字更加凸现出他们的提案的重要性,那就是限制房租的上涨幅度,让市面上的公寓房租水平远低于加拿大抵押和房产公司的预计.

但是,阿省的首相(Ed Stelmach)却说在这个议题上,他没有改变立场.
) Z" D4 N: Y( W9 m, O. |  I4 ^
% F1 z  R# V0 D9 yEd Stelmach有另外一种看法, "如果没有新的公寓单位上市,那么房租上涨是正常的,所以你需要增加供应量.相反的,如果政府暂时的限制了房租,那么就不会有人去兴建新的公寓单位."

+ W! q6 q' a/ w! t' B; W9 O8 h( v保守党政府上个星期承诺了2亿加元的拨款给阿省各个城市来兴建新的低收入房屋. Richard Goatcher,一位加拿大抵押和房产公司的资深市场分析员指出,在增长的新房屋供应量中,只有很少一部分是出租单位.

Richard Goatcher分析说:"最后,房租将会达到一个可以鼓励人兴建出租单位的水平.问题是,这个房租价格是多少?"
# p2 A$ T, c$ y
( _. k/ d" S! S0 R"一些建筑商说月房租需要达到在1500-2000加元,才能促使他们兴建出租单位."Richard Goatcher补充道.
3 I# l6 Z6 I* c& ]
Boardwalk, 阿省最大的土地拥有者,建议房租水平必须达到1600加元.在次之前,他们不会考虑兴建出租单位.

自由党魁Kevin Taft说:"政府说供应量短缺是正确的.但是,问题是根本没有办法在今后几年提供足够的房屋单位来矫正房屋市场."

4 L( ~" E/ i8 o4 D1 H"那么,你该做什么呢?老百姓将被赶到大街上去."
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- \* S1 t3 V) R* R/ y, `Kevin Taft鼓吹需要一个暂时的房租限制措施,就象最近政府一份关于房屋市场的报告里建议的一样.一个民意测验显示,在卡尔加里和埃德蒙顿,78%的房屋拥有者和92%的租房者支持政府设置房租上限.
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, K1 Q& Z/ R$ G6 c) ]卫生部长Dave Hancock,埃德蒙顿的资深保守党员,说这个民意测验是荒谬的.

# ?9 d6 n/ o! Y4 M"如果你去问别人,'你想多付房租吗?或者你希望政府立法来减低你的花费吗?',你将会得到这种回答.住宿问题和我们如何帮助老百姓来管理住宿花费要比这种问题复杂的得多."

但是卡尔加里的一些保守党立法委员却说,政府可能需要重新考虑自己的立场.
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- f4 X' x7 B$ Y/ c"我们是为阿省人民服务的.如果这是他们想要的,我们就应该重新评估这个政策.",Calgary-McCall立法委员Shiraz Shariff说到.他是反对控制房租的政策的.

"如果问题继续存在,如果这个政策在短期内可以防止问题恶化,我愿意考虑它."

Calgary-Nose Hill 立法委员Neil Brown说在老百姓致电他的办公室时,房屋问题是排第一位的,而且多数希望能有房租限制政策.Calgary-Fort 立法委员Wayne Cao,在最近的保守党大会上投票反对关于评估象房租限制政策的决议,表明他的立场,他不支持房租限制政策,但是政府必须做点儿什么事.

# v: K/ U# d% W! `' n$ e"关于那个民意测验,我们必须围绕它来进行讨论",Wayne Cao说,"作为一个政客,我们需要考量人们的要求."
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) C0 q' t5 a  B4 {1 y1 Q" \9 W$ LCalgary-Bow 立法委员Alana DeLong说她不支持房租限制政策,因为这个政策将来很难被取消而且限制兴建新的出租单位.但是她留意到很多人都希望能有房租上限.
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* ?* i; M; t3 n! E. M# Y"我一定会再考虑这个政策的",她说.
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3 y$ u( [3 L) I/ k* o0 C0 p同时,阿省公共服务部长Lloyd Snelgrove建议由政府出资监督那些不良房东,把他们列如黑名单.这个建议被搁置了.他说他没有跟省房东咨询委员会和出租事物官员商量这项提议,从而避免把黑名单作为解决方法.

' U( M7 J! v1 _"我想看看他们有什么办法来帮助解决这问题",Lloyd Snelgrove说.他是指阿省房东咨询委员会.
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1 W9 c, m: N% {2 i7 _) S& d. r. ?Clarence Rusnell是Artec不动产管理的成员之一,他说他以前并不知道有黑名单这个提议,因为Snelgrove没有在会议上提及黑名单.他同时指出房租只会上涨CMHC预测的一半.

Goatcher预测说:"今年大埃德蒙顿新增房屋数量会稍微稳定一些,达到14,150个单位.但仍然会成为第三高增长的年份."
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新建房屋的中心将从独立屋转向分户出售公寓大厦,原因是高成本,待售独立屋的库存量和独立屋地盘的短缺.

新建多单位建筑数量,大多数是分户出售公寓大厦,将会达到1982年的最高水平,2007年6000个单位,2008年5500单位.

"有些分户出售公寓大厦将会进入出租市场,但是房租会高于平均水平",Goatcher说.
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他分析了持续的房屋新建量和地区经济,新迁入居民亦及稳定的抵押贷款利率.
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5 P0 Z% e# r! }) i1 g- R8 OCMHC预测说,重出售房屋量,在2006年达到创记录的21,984个单位,2007年将会更高因为新的单位上市.销售量在2008年会轻微下降,因为高居不下的房屋价格将会吓跑初次购房者.

0 ?% o+ w- q( l3 c! V9 qCMHC预测说,全年平均价格,基于所有形式的重出售房屋,将会从2006年的$251,000攀升到2007年的$340,000,然后是2008年的$374,000.但是这个预测价格可能已经落后了实际价格水平.根据埃德蒙顿不动产委员会的报告,2007年4月份的平均价格是$344,137.

"我们的预测是较为保守的,我们希望这个上涨的趋势能放慢下来",Goatcher说.
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( s) o  J' P4 V5 Z1 O6 ]星期二,政府要求阿省住宅出租委员会在一个月内提交一份建议,包括房东自愿行动指南和如何处理其他有关房屋问题的提议.这个委员会创立于2003年,主要向政府提供关于住宅出租方面问题的咨询.这个委员由房东,房屋和商业官员,还有学者组成.
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公共服务部发言人Cam Traynor说委员会拒绝了立法委员进入委员会的提议.卡尔加里立法委员Webber上个星期试图充当这个角色.Traynor说委员会做出决议不被政府所主导.

4 n2 j" f3 y" y" r----------------------------------------------------------
要金币来买房子.

老杨

谢谢翻译，请查收1万金币。

建议楼主同时贴到爱城新闻。

ZJDX

原帖由 老杨 于 2007-5-16 18:37 发表
% {+ X; b4 J* @: e9 S8 k- P谢谢翻译，请查收1万金币。
) V% N. \3 z# {
建议楼主同时贴到爱城新闻。

' S' [$ O$ e5 U$ u  c5 u$ E谢谢老杨的金币。

eric.zhang

难道就不谢谢发帖子的？

RowlandSpring

对有房人是个好消息，对无房人是个促进。